Dumbest Religious Climate Takes Will At Least Entertain Us

The dumb hot climate takes just keep on coming. Photo
by Pete Foley/Getty Images/Flickr RF

 I've gotten used to some really, really dumb takes on climate change. 

Everything from bringing a snowball into the U.S. Senate on a chilly February day to "prove" climate change doesn't exist to hapless Pennsylvania man who said an increase in tornadoes in the eastern United States is due to the proliferation of roundabouts that are replacing four-way intersections. 

Sadly, I am not making this up. 

The most strident climate deniers more often than not invoke God and the Bible in their "solid proof" of climate change being a hoax. 

Most seriously religious people are pretty intelligent and have a good grasp on reality. Some on the other hand, oy vey. 

I got a couple new ones that really have me shaking my head. 

As JoeMyGod and others reports, Pennsylvania GOP state Rep. Stephanie Borowicz tells us we have nothing to worry about climate change, because it doesn't exist! The Bible says so! 

Here's what she said: 

"When Democrats are pushing bills like banning gas-powered mowers and gas powered stoves in New York City, all under the name of a climate control agenda, we can all see that is really going on here.

The truth is, is in Genesis 8:22 it says, 'as long as the Earth endures, seedtime and harvest, cold and heat, summer and winter, day and night will never cease.'

I'll say that again, 'will never cease.' Of course, we are to be good stewards of God's creation, but not through a forceful climate control global agenda."

I'm losing brain cells doing this, but I'll spell it out for our friend Stephanie. Whoever wrote that Bible passage was being Captain Obvious. There's winter and summer. You plant seeds in the spring and you harvest crops toward autumn. It's daytime unless it's night. 

Is she saying climate change doesn't exist because there are seasons? Or it doesn't exist because winter is colder than summer?  Is it just me or am I not following her leaps of logic? 

Probably my favorite response to her nonsense was a comment on X by somebody with the handle @SkyWasYellow:

"So, by the word of Genesis, harvests could drop to such low levels that mass starvation occurs, but since they didn't 'cease' all is well? And cold and heat still exist as extreme droughts and blizzards, as a result of climate change, but all is well because it didn't 'cease'?"

There was another religious hot take on climate change in the past week, too. 

The esteemed climate expert and Illinois Rep. Chris Miller, a Republican announced the other day that climate change doesn't exist because God made trees.

Said Miller: "We're not having a climate crisis.....Green leafy plants actually absorb carbon dioxide and produce oxygen. It's the way God made it.'"

I'm picking on the dude, but let's be clear: I'm not picking on trees. I love trees. And they do absorb carbon dioxide and release oxygen. Trees are our allies. 

But there's only so much trees can do. Before we started burning fossil fuels like crazy, trees were part of the system that kept the world's climate relatively stable. 

Besides, if Miller is such a fan of trees, why isn't he upset that humans are mowing down the Amazon forest?

These shysters always invoke God. Many people are serious about the Bible, for good reason. But you know somebody is bullshitting you when they do more flips in their mind to "explain" the Bible than the real physical flips the cast of Circ du Soleil perform. 

It's their lame way to think they have the final word. They make up something out of thin air they claim that God and the Bible said. And that's supposed to be the final word because Jesus. Or something.  

Or they are grifters using the tried and true method of using a false god to gaslight people. 

This isn't a rant about religious people. It's the  ones who yell and scream about how pious they are that sends my bullcrap meter into overdrive. The truly religious lead their lives in concert with their beliefs and not take talking points from the fossil fuel industry bosses.

So here's my question: What would Jesus do?

 

It's Official: First Autumn Freeze Across Vermont; Record Late; Icy Roads Too

Fog and drizzle and chill made for an appropriate pre-
Halloween mood yesterday before last night's freeze arrived.

 Early this morning, it was below freezing everywhere in Vermont, except perhaps right along the shore of Lake Champlain. 

For most of us, that's the latest first autumn freeze on record.

It's complicated for the official National Weather Service readings in the Burlington area.  Weather measurements have been taken at the airport in South Burlington since 1941.  This is the latest freeze at the airport since at least then, and most likely well before that.

The old record for latest first freeze at the airport was October 28, 2022 - yes, just last year. 

Prior to 1941, weather measurements were taken closer to Lake Champlain, where it is warmer on clear, calm autumn nights. So the record latest freeze from those days was November 1, 1920.  It's unknown if the site where temperatures were taken way back when got below freezing this morning. 

The cold weather this morning prompted one of those dreaded special weather statements from the National Weather Service. Water from yesterday's rains probably froze on some of the roads, especially on bridges and overpasses.

As you're driving to work this morning remember that some areas of the harmless "wet road" is actually glare ice that can send you careening into other cars or off the road.  This includes main roads. I have reports of at least one crash on an Interstate 89 overpass in Richmond.  Other crashes closed stretches of Interstate 89 between Montpelier and Richmond. I'm sure other bridges on the Interstate are icy, too. 

My truck parked in St. Albans, Vermont looking 
very iced over this morning. 

By the way, yesterday's rain brought the month's total to 6.41 inches in Burlington, which makes it the third wettest October on record as well as one of the warmest.

I'll have much more complete climate data for October in a post tomorrow,

Meanwhile, the chill continues on.  Highs today and tomorrow will barely make it to 40 if we're lucky in most of northern Vermont. Southern valleys might be a tad warmer than that. More freezes are coming tonight and tomorrow night, with lows for most places in the 20s.

For the little monsters trick or treating this evening, they can expect temperatures in the 30s, but at least it will be dry, with no rain or snow. 

Another disturbance will probably give us some snow showers Wednesday, mixed with rain in the valleys. Don't worry, any accumulations will be really light to non-existent. 

It still looks like it will turn a little warmer toward the end of the week, but not spectacularly so. For a change, there's no sign of yet another big warmup coming.

Monday Snow Falling Far North And West; Most Of Vermont In A Cold Shivery Rain

 The fairly weak but soggy storm system sliding by to our south is giving us a very miserable Monday morning as expected.  

Vermont Agency of Transportation traffic cam shows
snow falling along Route 114 in Canaan, which is at
the extreme northeast tip of Vermont. Snow is widespread
in southern Quebec this morning but so far
it's been almost all rain in Vermont, as expected.

Most of us in Vermont were near 40 degrees as of 8 a.m. and a steady rain was falling. For those of you looking for snow, so far it's been just north of the Canadian border, and in northwestern New York, 

As of 8 a.m., it was snowing in Montreal, Quebec City, Ottawa and Massena, New York.  The storm flung a bit of slightly warmer air aloft over most of Vermont and New Hampshire, so it's been almost all rain so far. 

You can tell that "warmer" air is lurking above by mountain reports. It was only 25 degrees atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire, but they were getting freezing rain, not snow. 

As the storm moves east, some of the colder air aloft on its northwestern flank might manage to bleed south some. That means the northern Green Mountains and perhaps even lower elevations in the north, including maybe the Champlain Valley could see some snowflakes before the precipitation tapers off by early afternoon.

I did notice a Vermont Agency of Transportation traffic camera this morning along Route 114 in Canaan, Vermont shows snowfall with a slushy coating on the road. Canaan is in the extreme Northeast Kingdom, right where Vermont, New Hampshire and Quebec meet. 

The rain has pushed October to become the seventh wettest in Burlington as of 8 a.m. today. If the city gets just 0.13 inches more, it will be third wettest. It will also be among the top ten warmest Octobers.

FREEZE, FINALLY

If for some reason you haven't brought in plants from outdoors you want to save, now's the time. The weather pattern has changed. I'm impressed by the huge area of freeze warnings the nation is under right now.

We brought our hibiscus indoors a couple weeks ago.
The warmer indoor air encouraged an explosion of
blooms, but some yellow leaves, as we get every
autumn as it doesn't like being indoors as much.
If you still have any sensitive plants outdoors, go
out in the rain and get 'em in now. Freeze tonight.

The freeze warnings extend from Arizona to Pennsylvania and southern Wisconsin to northern Mississippi. 

We won't be under a freeze warning here in Vermont, because the growing season is normally thought to be long past.  

But we are going to see our first, very belated freeze of the season tonight. Some parts of Vermont will have their latest first autumn freeze on record tonight.

Even in the Champlain Valley.  So empty those hoses if you still have them outdoors and bring them in.  

We brought our hibiscus, orange tree and geraniums in about a week and a half ago, figuring we'd have to do it sometime. But if you have stuff like that on your deck. rush 'em into the house. 

We finally have to button up for winter.  Not that hard core winter is going to hit quite yet.

COOL, BUT BENIGN

At least for now, we get a reprieve from the forces of winter. This week will be on the cool side, but trending milder to become close to normal by the end of the week and the weekend. There will be no big storms.  It'll often be cloudy, and we have the risk of a sprinkle or flurry here or there, but nothing major he season 

A Damp, Flaky Vermont Forecast; Incredibly Raw Start To Week

An interlude of sunshine Saturday lit up these lingering
golden leaves in St. Albans, Vermont, but the gloom is
back and so is the chill. 

 The cold front that ended our long of warm autumn weather came through as scheduled Saturday.

It gave us a brief window in which the persistent clouds over the past two or three weeks gave way to bright blue skies during the afternoon.  

Now, this Sunday morning, we're back to the gloom we've been under, and it's a lot cooler out there. 

The cold front temporarily stalled to our south, just as expected. A couple little storms are rippling along the front, or are about to. 

Last gasps of warm air are trying to ride up and over the front and the cold air behind it, created another round of dull overcast that will last through Monday.

To add to the chilly misery, occasional rain will be the rule today through most of Monday. Some of the rain will be white - as in snow. 

The first wave of precipitation was trying to move in by 8 or 9 a.m. this Sunday morning, but dry air near the surface was drying up the rain as it fell, so it was initially not making it to the ground. The rain will be spotty north, and some places have a shot of staying generally dry, if dark and gloomy. 

Actually, the rain is probably in the form of snow way up high, near summit levels around here. It's changing to rain on the way down. But that evaporation is cooling the air further, so when the a little rain finally does make it to the ground, some people might find a few wet snowflakes mixing in. 

It would just be a few snowflakes, and mostly confined to north-central Vermont away from Lake Champlain and the Northeast Kingdom.

This one isn't much, but this is the first of I'm sure many
National Weather Service/South Burlington snow
forecast maps you'll see this winter. As you can see
higher elevations, at least are in for a little snow
now through late night Monday. 

The precipitation might wane a bit this afternoon, but really pick up and become steady overnight. 

Rain and snow will never come down particularly heavy overnight and Monday, but it will make things sopping wet again. 

Rain or melted snow will probably amount to too much - about a half inch north to a little under an inch far south in Vermont. 

 This will vault Burlington into the top ten list of wettest Octobers. We've already established it will among the top ten warmest, so yeah, this month has indeed been weird, in case you haven't noticed. 

You also see I'm mentioning snow in this outlook.   Higher and even some mid elevations, mainly above 2,000 feet or so, might expect a slushy coating to an inch of snow from this late tonight and Monday morning. Some more wet flakes might  make it to valley floors. 

There's always a chance this could over-perform, too. The National Weather Service in South Burlington has a nifty winter weather page that, among many other things, gives percent chances of different snow totals. For instance, Island Pond has a 59 percent chance of seeing 0.1 inches of snow.

There's a low chance, it things turn out right, that even the Champlain Valley gets involved. St. Albans has a 22 percent chance of at least 0.1 inches of snow, and Burlington has an 18 percent chance. Bad odds if you're a gambler, but still, interesting. 

This snow isn't weird for the very end of October, but it's a reality check for those of us who were lulled into the never ending summer the past couple of months. 

I don't see any signs of a big warmup anytime soon. There might even be some snow showers around Wednesday. We're lucky that a nor'easter that could have brought accumulating snow to us midweek is going way too far out to sea to bother us. 

It might get vaguely warmer toward the weekend, but not nearly enough to throw open the windows again. 

This type of weather pattern - very typical of November, really - tends to keep the clouds locked into place. Yeah, you'll see glimpses of sun, and maybe even some bonafide partly sunny skies at times toward Thursday and Friday.  

But for those of you with solar patterns, you still won't be making tons of electricity for yourselves anytime soon. But that's typical for this time of year. 

Sharp Flip To Colder Vermont, And The Chill Will Have Staying Power

Harvesting beans just a week ago in 
my St. Albans, Vermont garden. Until
now, such a late harvest for beans
was unheard of in the Green Mountain State

Temperatures at dawn in the Champlain Valley this morning were in the mid-60s, which is actually warmer than normal for a July dawn, never mind the end of October. 

Enjoy it, because as of this writing at 8 a.m. Saturday, we have only a few more hours of it. Spoiler: We have a week of November like weather coming, and for some of us, there's snow in the forecast. 

The warmth this week has been impressive, though not as big-time as the beginning of the month, when we set all time record highs for the month. 

Still, Montpelier managed a record high of 71 degrees Friday, though records only go back to 1949. So it could have been warmer before that. There's evidence for that. Burlington fell short by one degree of tying a record  high of 74, set in 1947.

Across the pond, Plattsburgh had a record high for the date of 74, besting the old record of 72.

Rain showers were gathering in New York State and heading toward Vermont at dawn today. They won't amount to much, except they're part of that strong cold front heading our way. 

I wouldn't wear shorts and t-shirts out like I comfortably did yesterday. It was still summer wear weather  early this morning, but temperatures will fall this afternoon, especially the further northwest you go.

For instance, Burlington's forecast has an expectation of around 67 degrees at noon, but down to the mid-50s by dusk and mid-40s before midnight. 

And this the cold (but not at all abnormal!) weather begins. 

SUNDAY

Latest forecasts are holding off on the light rain for northern Vermont. But it still looks another rainy and dreary Sunday afternoon the further south you go. Rain won't be heavy, but with damp conditions and overcast everywhere, it won't be a nice day.

Summits will start to see snow Sunday afternoon or evening and snow levels will fall somewhat overnight, leading to a potentially interesting Monday for some of us

MONDAY

Although precipitation will not be heavy, it will be noticeable, especially as many of us see snow Monday morning.  This will be the first time this season some of us will have to drive in it. 

The snow, and the risk of slick roads, should be mostly at elevations of near 1,500  to 2,000 feet and above. That means most of us will be fine, though a few wet snow flakes could mix in all the way down to valley floors. 

Last leaves of autumn cling to trees near the 
Winooski River in Burlington Friday. 

Since none of us are used to driving in snow and some people don't have winter tires yet, there could be some spin outs on higher elevation roads and highways Monday morning. 

Think Route 4 at Mendon Mountain, Route 9 east of Bennington, possibly the high terrain along Interstate 89 near Brookfield, Route 17 over Buels Gore, places like that. 

Watch this one, though. I've seen surprises this time of year in which snow levels go lower than forecast. You never know. 

The rain and snow will taper off some in the afternoon, but it will remain cold

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

Most of Vermont has extremely oddly not had a freeze yet. That will change in the upcoming week.  Even the Banana Belt Champlain Valley should get below freezing on at least some mornings between Tuesday and Friday. 

That is extraordinarily late.  I found myself shockingly harvesting green beans last week, and I'm still getting healthy lettuce that was never protected from frost. 

Daytime highs should be in the 40s each day. 

This seems cold after our weirdly warm autumn so far. But the expected temperatures are only slightly cooler than normal, and it's been much colder than this in the past in late October. 

Record lows in the Champlain Valley are running in the 15 to 20 degree range, and record cold highs are in the low 30s.  We won't come remotely close to that. 

Despite the chillier weather to close October, it will still be among the top ten warmest Octobers on record, at least in Burlington. 

Odd Lenticular Clouds Gave Vermont Skies A Unique Appearance, Followed By Other Rare Clouds Days Later

Lenticular clouds over South Burlington,
 Vermont last Thursday.

 During last week's relatively warm weather, the sky over northwest Vermont began to look a little like some odd fuzzy spaceships were overhead.  

These were lenticular clouds. They happen from time to time mostly over mountainous areas. They're some of the weirdest and most picturesque clouds you can get. 

To understand how these clouds form, think about a fast flowing river. You'll often see the water flow up and over a submerged rock, then there are waves downstream that sort of echo the wave that was over the rock. 

That's what's going on in the atmosphere. Air is flowing up and over a mountain, then you get those waves downstream. Those lenticular clouds you're seeing are the peak of the waves. When air rises to form the peak of the wave, moisture condenses and forms those smooth, rounded clouds. 

This, by the way, is a demonstration why meteorologists are basically physicists specializing in fluid dynamics. The air flows like a fluid, and acts that way. Meteorologists need to understand how these processes work to help that forecast the weather. 

Last Thursday, when these lenticular clouds appeared, winds from the southwest were flowing over the Adirondacks, and the subsequent waves appeared overhead in northwestern Vermont. 

Another view of lenticular clouds over South Burlington,
 Vermont last Thursday.

This made for a very pretty, unique sky, but these lenticular clouds weren't as spectacular as sometimes seen near larger mountains. 

Places like the fairly isolated volcanic peaks in the Cascades of Washington State produce some really wild lenticular clouds. Those can be multi-layered, almost resembling giant wedding cakes from outer space.  

In these areas, like the Cascades, people have actually called the authors because the lenticular clouds really do look like spaceships. People who didn't know any better have thought that's what they really were.  

Lenticular clouds certainly don't happen every day here in Vermont. So it is a treat when we do get them. So I certainly enjoyed last Thursday afternoon's skies. 

Video: Views of the lenticular clouds over northwestern Vermont on October 19. Click on this link to view the video, or, if you see the image below, click on that:

ASPERITAS SIGHTING

A few days later, this past Tuesday, we were treated to another fairly rare cloud called asperitas. It's an overcast with weird wave and sort of swirl patterns associated with it. 

Scientists aren't exactly 100 percent sure how they form. They're often near convective thunderstorms, but sometimes form in much calmer conditions.  The ones we had overhead in Vermont Tuesday came with no major weather.  There were sprinkles around, but certainly no heavy showers or storms. 

Asperitas clouds form over Georgia, Vermont Tuesday. 

The weather that we had Tuesday consisted of warm, moist air flowing from the Gulf of Mexico interacting with weak disturbances in the atmosphere. This has led to those small batches of light showers that have been coming through for the past few days. 

These clouds actually need a stable layer in the atmosphere where the air doesn't mix much. Small disturbances, like pebbles thrown into a pond, can jostle the air enough to create these clouds. 

Although asperitas is often associated with inclement weather, rain for some reason does not fall from these clouds, despite their unstable appearance. These clouds often look ominous, but no need to hide in the basement if you seem them. They don't harm anything. 

The asperitas clouds I saw Tuesday were not nearly as dramatic as they can get.  Sometimes, like some spotted over northern New Hampshire in April, can be incredibly wild. 

Acapulco Apocalypse: Surprise Category 5 Hurricane Otis Devastates Resort

Extreme destruction in Acapulco from surprise
Category 5 Hurricane Otis. Photo via X
by @mendezraq

 Residents and tourists in Acapulco, Mexico went to bed Tuesday night expecting a strong tropical storm or at worst a minimal Category 1 hurricane. 

By morning, everyone assumed, the city would face scattered tree damage, a few power outages, maybe a couple flooded streets, and trashed awnings and such. 

Instead, Tropical Storm Otis in a flash strengthened to a category 5 monster, with top winds at landfall in Acapulco with winds at around 165 mph. 

This is a worst case scenario for a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest possible.  It strengthened rapidly, giving no time for residents to prepare. 

Worse, it caught seasoned forecasters by surprise.  Nobody anticipated it would be nearly this bad. And this is the first known case of a Category 5 hurricane directly striking a city with a population of more than 1 million. 

"'It's one thing to have a Category 5 hurricane make landfall somewhere when you're expecting it or expecting a strong hurricane, but to have it happen when  you're not expecting anything to happen is truly a nightmare,' said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, according to the Associated Press.

 The blow was so sudden and so extreme that 24 hours later, we still don't know the extent of damage or the death toll.  Most people just can't get into Acapulco for a look-see or get out yet. 

But social media images and news coming out of Acapulco are grim. 

Many tourists said they feared for their lives as the intense winds dismantled their hotels. 

As the Associated Press describes:

"Jacob Sauczuk was staying with a group of friends at a beachfront hotel when Otis hit. 'We laid down on the floor and some between beds,' Sauczuk said. 'We prayed a lot.'

One of his friends showed reporters photos of the windowless, shattered rooms in the hotel. It looked as if someone had put clothes, beds and furniture in a blender, leaving a shredded mess. He complained that his group was given no warning, no were offered safer shelter by the  hotel."

Probably because the hotel, like everyone else, was caught by utter surprise by this thing.  

We know that there's widespread looting, and many people are trapped amid the chaos. Video emerging from the area show high rise buildings shredded, as if in the midst of a major war. 

This was a colossal miss by hurricane forecasters. As the Washington Post reports:

"On X, formerly Twitter, meteorologists described the forecast as 'an almost incomprehensible miss,' 'a fail of epic proportions' and 'just a catastrophic failure.'"

Part of the problem was Otis strengthened at a pace beyond the imagination of most experienced meteorologists and hurricane experts. 

There's a growing consensus, or at least strong opinion among scientists that climate change is making rapid hurricane intensification more likely, and is also making hurricanes harder to predict. 

Says the Washington Post:

"Otis careened from a tropical storm to Category 5 strength in 13 hours, and its peak winds increased 115 mph in 24 hours. That's around a threshold that (MIT hurricane scientist Kerry)  Emanuel wrote was 'essentially nonexistent in the late twentieth-century climate' but increasingly probable in the current warming climate." 

This tragedy isn't just an Acapulco problem. Scientists have been saying in recent years that typhoons and hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean have shown a trend toward rapid intensification due to climate change. 

The Washington Post also referred us to a study released just in the past week that shows more conclusively than in the past that Atlantic hurricanes are also exhibiting that rapid intensification trend. 

"'The increased likelihood for hurricanes to transition from weak storms into major hurricanes in 24 hours or less was particularly striking,'" said Andra Garner, who authored the study. 

We are already seeing the effects of rapidly growing hurricanes surprising residents as they explode in strength just before landfall.  Hurricane Michael in the Florida Panhandle did that in 2018, Hurricane Harvey in 2017 did the same in Texas, as did Hurricane Ian in Florida last year. 

When hurricanes rapidly intensify just before landfall, they catch people off guard, as what happened in Acapulco. That puts people in added danger when they're surprised by much stronger winds and much higher storm surges. 

 Hurricanes thrive on very warm ocean water. The warmer the water the better, at least from the perspective of a hurricane.  Climate change has helped send ocean water in hurricane development zones to record high levels recently. 

Water temperatures off of Acapulco were at an extremely toasty 88 degrees. Expected upper level winds which would have slowed the strengthening of Otis failed to materialize, so the die was cast. 

By the way, we in Vermont are not immune from potential harm from these super hurricanes.  A stronger hurricane in general won't weaken as fast as a small weak system once in makes landfall. So that increases the chances that a strong hurricane striking New England could increase the danger and damage here in the Green Mountain State.

Acapulco isn't dominating the headlines yet, because we don't know the extent of the damage or casualties. But I'm very worried about it.  

Vermont Having Trouble Escaping Rain This Week

 For the second morning in a  row, surprise showers are rolling through Vermont.

Some fairly rare asperatis clouds over Georgia,
Vermont Tuesday, which was another overcast, 
gray day among many lately. 

Once again, they are not going to amount to anything huge, but it's certainly keeping things damp for people doing fall cleanup before winter arrives. 

The gods have been steering extra rain toward us since Saturday.

The weekend storm over-performed, as I noted previously, dumping more than two inches of rain on many parts of Vermont. 

In northern Vermont Sunday, the rain continued all day, without a break. On Monday, skies were slow to clear and drizzle unexpectedly lingered in some areas until mid-day.

Tuesday was supposed to be dry, but what were those pesky light showers doing around all morning. (There was even a pocket or two of freezing rain briefly early in the morning up in the Adirondacks).

At least the thicker than expected overcast also brought us a glimpse of some rare asperitas clouds, which are these weird wavy gray clouds you see in first photo in this post. 

That brings us to this morning. I checked radar when I got up and it was lit up with an army of showers rushing in from New York State and into Vermont.  These are a bit more convective in nature, with a hint of the tall clouds you'd see in summertime showers and thunderstorms. 

It doesn't look like any of these showers contain any thunder or lightning, so don't worry about that. Though I did note a couple lightning strikes west of Montreal, which is interesting. 

Much like yesterday, the showers should pretty much be out of here by this afternoon, knock on wood, fingers crossed for no more surprises.

It is much warmer this morning, so that part of the forecast was spot on. 

Although it will be oddly warm for the next couple of days, it won't be exactly be sunny. And we'll still be prone to these little batches of "surprise" showers.  

Ahead of this morning's batch of showers, convective
clouds began to bubble up around dawn over
St. Albans, Vermont 

The air is going to be really humid for this time of year.  Not uncomfortably so, but still not the type of dry air that is characteristic of late October.

Dew points will be in the 50s.  That will help lead to lots of clouds.  Often when the air is that damp, we can get some good rains. 

But there's no big triggers to set off any steady downpours. Instead, clumps of decaying showers and thunderstorms from the Midwest might pass through from time to time in the form of fast-moving light showers or sprinkles through Friday. 

Most of the time it will be dry, though. 

The warm spell ends over the weekend.  Sunday at this point is looking overcast, cool with increasing chances of rain.   Go figure on a Vermont weekend this year!  The cold rain is probably going to last into Monday, which is Halloween. Hopefully it will end in time for trick or treating that evening. 

We're also going to end this long mostly warm spell that began at the end of August.  For the first time in a long time, we're in for what appears to be a fairly extended period of chillier than normal weather, starting on Halloween. 

For the first time this autumn, the National Weather Service mentions a chance of snow even in the valleys next Monday night and Tuesday. It'll only be flurries, so it's panic time.  But it is a reminder that winter will come, despite the messages this warm autumn has been sending us so far. 

Much Of Vermont Remained Frost-Free Last Night, Continuing Odd Lack Of Cold

 It appears most reporting stations in Vermont did not have a freeze last night or this morning. 

Gorgeous sunrise today in St. Albans, Vermont. The clouds
that caused the pretty skies also prevented many Vermont
towns from having their first freeze of the season. 

There were plenty of reports of fog, and I'm sure there was patchy frost as many places got into the 33 to 35 degree range. 

This ensures that records for latest freeze will be established in many cities.

Montpelier got down to 33 degrees. There was likely some frost in the area, but for official records, they avoided a freeze. At  least since 1970,,the latest freeze on record in Montpelier was on October 31, 1975. 

The forecast calls for continued above freezing temperatures in Montpelier at least through Monday, October 30, and quite possibly beyond, so the record for latest first freeze is in jeopardy.

Same is true at the official National Weather Service measuring site at the Burlington International Airport. The overnight low there was 35 degrees. 

I made a slight error in a post the other day. I claimed the record for latest first freeze of the autumn at the airport was on October 26, 2018.  But I just can't keep up with this onslaught of warm autumn in recent years. 

Last year, in 2022, the first freeze at the airport didn't hit until October 28, and that's the record to beat. 

The record to beat, that is, unless you want to include data prior to 1941.  Weather data shifted to the airport in 1941. The airport is further inland from Lake Champlain than prior measurements. That inland location has less influence from the warming effects of the lake than when measurements were take right in the city of Burlington proper.

So, in that sense, the record to beat is November 1, 1920.

Bottom line: The October 28 record at the airport will surely be broken. It's dicey for the November 1 record. If the Weather Channel's 10-day forecast is to be believed, the expected low temperature on November 1 is 33 degrees, which is a close shave.

Most of us would have had a freeze this morning had skies remained relatively clear and winds light. This morning's low temperatures hit around 2 a.m. today.  Usually temperatures keep heading downward until dawn.

But clouds and winds arrived in the pre-dawn hours, so temperatures actually began to slowly rise after 3 a.m. 

THE OUTLOOK

An unexpected patch of light showers moved through central Vermont this morning, but that will clear out soon if it hasn't already. We're still looking at a warm, but partly to mostly cloudy week. 

Some overnight lows during the second half of the week will be warmer than normal highs for this time of year. Those high temperatures will also flirt with 70 degrees, compared to average highs in the mid 50s.

The extended forecast is uncertain, but it looks like we will gradually step down in temperature this weekend and actually be chillier than average in about a week from now. 

To give you another idea just how warm this autumn has been, September in Burlington tied for the fourth warmest on record.  Given the forecast, this October is almost guaranteed to be among the top five warmest, and has a slight chance of besting the record for the warmest October. 

This year is also likely to yet another in the top ten warmest in Burlington. Already each of the top five warmest  years have happened since 2012.  Climate change, anyone?

Winter Forecasts Mostly Think Vermont/North U.S. To Be Warm. *Results May Vary

For what it's worth, NOAA predicts a warm winter
across the northern tier of states, including here in
Vermont. But don't hang your hat on this. Long
range forecasts are notoriously unreliable.

 It's that time of year when everybody and their brother attempt a forecast for the upcoming winter's weather.  

Fine, I'll play along again, but as always, don't be the least bit surprised if things turn out to be completely different than the various winter forecasts you see in this post.

I'll tell you what the winter of 2023-24 will end up being like in, I don't know, March?

For what it's worth, NOAA this past week released its winter forecast.

It calls for a classic El Nino pattern. Overall, the nation is in for a warm winter, if NOAA is correct. The strongest chances of having a warm winter, relative to average would most likely be in the Pacific Northwest, New England and Alaska.

The NOAA winter precipitation forecast is also classic El Nino, feature a greater chance of drier than normal weather in the northern Rockies, far northern Plains and around the Great Lakes.

Chances for above normal precipitation would extend across the southern tier of the United States from California to the Carolinas. The greatest chance of a wet winter would be across Florida and southern Georgia.

Here in Vermont, NOAA says it's a tossup as to whether it will be wet or dry this winter. 

In my experience during El Nino winters in Vermont, it seems like the early winter is the warmest relative to average and then it gets colder toward late winter. I have no idea whether this will be the case this year, but I'm just throwing that out there, as I've seen it before. 

For what it's worth, NOAA got last winter's forecast right, at least here in the Green Mountain State. The prediction was for a warm winter with equal chances of it being wet or dry. 

The reality was last winter was the third warmest on record,  and was a little wetter than average. However, NOAA got other regions wrong. They did not forecast a remarkably wet winter in California, for instance.

The Weather Channel's winter forecast roughly mirrors NOAA, with the most of the nation, except the Southeast, having a mild winter. The Weather Channel maps overall have the best chances of a warm winter north of a west-east line from about San Francisco to New York City.

Here in Vermont, the Weather Channel kind of echoes my gut feelings. Early winter could be very much on the warm side, but by February, things would be closer to normal, says the home of Jim Cantore.

The Weather Channel missed the mark - at least for us in Vermont - last winter. They said it would be somewhat colder than average (but not extremely cold). But it was extremely warm, so that's a miss. 

AccuWeather is also predicting a classic El Nino type winter with warmer conditions to the north and somewhat cooler south, relative to average.

The difference is AccuWeather is not nearly as bullish on the warmth as NOAA or The Weather Channel. Although AccuWeather thinks the northern third of the U.S. will be on the warmish side, the only really warm regions would be the northern Rockies and the western Great Lakes. They're also predicting more snow in the eastern United States than last winter.

AccuWeather is predicting somewhat above average snowfall for interior New England, including all of Vermont this winter. 

I'm afraid to say AccuWeather kind of botched last year's forecast. They did expect a fairly warm early winter in the Northeast, which turned out to be true. But New England was supposed to have a fairly snowy winter, great for skiing, which didn't happen. Their worst mistake was saying that California would remain dry, and drought would continue. Oops. 

The other usual suspects have also issued their winter forecasts. The Old Farmer's Almanac said that most of the central and western United States will have a cold, snowy winter. New England is in for a mild, but snowy winter, says the publication. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac got it wrong for Vermont last winter. They predicted a cold snowy winter. As noted, it turned out very warm. Also, snowfall was somewhat below normal. 

The rival Farmer's Almanac (I guess it's not so old) is forecasting a cold, stormy winter in northern New England. The same publication also said we would have a cold, stormy winter last year, which of course didn't happen.  

As noted, I have no idea who among these prognosticators who is right. Another mystery for me is all the emphasis on winter outlooks every year. We do see spring, autumn and summer outlooks, but those predictions lack the breathless anticipation and certainty of the forecasters, despite their weak track record. 

Anyway, enjoy your winter. However it turns out. 

Vermont October "Cold Snap" Really Isn't Cold, Barely Snowed Mountain Tops, Warmth To Return

The National Weather Service in South Burlington
put out this map Sunday showing storm totals 
from Friday into Sunday. Up to an inch of additional
rain fell after this in far northern Vermont. Click
on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.

 I'm still amazed by how a spell of average weather can seem so chilly compared to how weirdly warm it is. 

And spoiler: The warmth will return this week.

It's true that Sunday, as long advertised, was not a nice day.  In far northern Vermont, it rained all day.  In fact here in St. Albans, at least light rain and drizzle has fallen continuously since late Friday night.  It was still drizzling as of 7 a.m. today. 

The extra rain in far northern Vermont really added up. By this morning my unofficial storm total was up to 3.2 inches. 

 The map in this post does not necessarily show rainfall for all of Sunday and Sunday night, so some northern areas really ended up especially soggy, too

Elsewhere in Vermont where there were only occasional showers under gray skies Sunday.  

Rainfall totals through 4:30 p.m. Friday shows widespread two to three inch rain totals throughout western Vermont, all of Bennington and Windham counties and some spots in the Northeast Kingdom.

Despite two record soakers in Burlington this month, the city hasn't quite made it yet into the top ten list of wettest Octobers. So far, 5.6 inches of rain has fallen in Burlington this month. The tenth wettest October had 5.81 inches, so we're close. 

 Depending on what happens toward next weekend, that could change, but we're getting ahead of ourselves. 

WINTRY? NOT REALLY

A colored tree lights up a gloomy morning in St 
Albans, Vermont today. Excuse the bad formatting,
Blogger won't let me position photos where 
they should be today. 

As semi-wintry as Sunday felt, it was actually a pretty average day for late October. High temperatures were a little cooler than average, low temperatures were near normal to slightly on the mild side. 

Mount Mansfield finally had its first snow, which for them was awfully late. To put it in perspective, the average date of the first snow flurries of the season in Banana Belt Burlington is October 15.  The summit of Vermont's highest peak usually gets a little snow way, way before that. 

If you thought Sunday's weather was icky, consider this. On Sunday's date in Burlington way back in 1969, 5.1 inches of snow fell. That 1969 snowstorm was an introduction to what would turn out to be arguably the harshest winter on record, if you consider the combination of very low temperatures and extreme snowfalls. 

Don't worry, we won't be seeing any winter conditions quite yet. 

TODAY

It's going to be tricky to scour out the clouds due to a temperature inversion trapping clouds beneath a layer of somewhat warmer air above.  

Dry air is trying to work in, and that could eventually break up the clouds this afternoon. The best shot at seeing the sun is in the lower Connecticut River Valley, and just maybe valleys of western Vermont, including the Champlain Valley.  

As we've been saying for days, tonight will be chilly, but nothing odd for October.  Many areas away from the Champlain Valley will likely see a frost or freeze, which once again is awfully late for the first one of the season.

Much of the Champlain Valley is going to go another week at least without a frost.

BIG WARMUP

The warm air coming in this week is looking more and more impressive.  This won't necessarily be a big sunshiny and super dry warm spell, but still very odd for this time of year. 

At this point, Wednesday through Friday, it looks like a fair number of clouds will hold temperatures in the 65 to 72 degree range, so we will probably fall just short of daytime record highs. 

The air coming in is fairly humid for this time of year (not uncomfortable like summer, but still a little muggier than you'd expect in late October). That means nights, especially in the Champlain Valley will be ridiculously warm. Like leave your windows open warm. 

Lows should be in the upper 50s to maybe near 60 Wednesday and Thursday nights in the Champlain Valley and closer to 50 in central and eastern Vermont. This sets the stage for some possible record warm overnight lows Thursday and Friday. 

It'll probably turn cooler again next weekend. 

Winter will eventually get here. I noticed the first winter storm watches of the season today in Washington State and the northern Rockies. Eventually the cold air will get here. In fact, some long range forecasts call for colder than normal temperatures here during the first week in November

Another Remarkably Wet Day In Vermont Saturday; First Snow In High Spots Today, Then More Warm?

Dark clouds and rain Saturday did help to pop out
remaining fall colors, as seen here in Georgia, Vermont. 

 For the second Saturday this month, some pretty remarkable rains fell in parts of Vermont. 

Burlington had 2.33 inches of rain  yesterday, a record amount for the date. This follows another record 2.8 inches back on October 7. It's quite rare to have more than two inches of rain fall on two different days in the same month. 

It's been that kind of weird, wet weather year. The rain, though thoroughly drenching, didn't come down fast enough to cause any real flooding. Vermont's rivers certainly rose quite a bit, but they are not at or threatening flood stage. 

The heaviest rain Saturday seemed mostly focused along and west of the Green Mountains. The bulk of the moderate to heavy rain didn't hit eastern Vermont until later.

For most of Saturday a  little trof line - basically a mini weather front - steered Atlantic moisture northward through western New England and up through Bennington and Rutland counties and on up into the Champlain Valley. This was all happening as a strengthening storm near the coast helped funnel wet air northward.

Rainfall tapered off a little from central Vermont and points east. For instance, Montpelier has only reported about an inch and a quarter of rain. That made for a soggy day, but nothing too out of whack. Still, some areas in the southern Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom got more than two inches of rain. 

I don't have complete rainfall data yet, but some of the highest storm totals I came across are 3.37 inches in Marlboro, 2.9 inches in Middlebury and 2.69 inches in West Rutland. So this storm was less intense that the one early this month, but not by much.  

A RAW SUNDAY 

That storm is now well to our northeast up toward Nova Scotia. But it's circulating cold, damp air back over northern New England.

This situation is serving up, as previously advertised, a raw, nasty Sunday in Vermont, and in places like northern New York, New Hampshire, Maine and southern Quebec.  

These trees near my St. Albans, Vermont house were still
mostly green three or four days ago, so a belated
autumn is now progressing on this chilly, raw Sunday.

A little more cold air than anticipated is flowing in, so snow won't necessarily be limited to just the highest peaks. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says you might see snowflakes in Vermont at elevations at or even a bit below 2,500 feet. In the Adirondacks, snow levels could briefly fall to 1,000 feet above sea level.

For the rest of us, cold northwest winds, temperatures in the 40s, along with light but persistent showers will make for a miserable day.  It's a great Sunday to get indoor chores done, I guess.

Although today's raindrops are cold and awful, rainfall amounts won't be anything like Saturday. Expect another 0.1 to 0.25 inches, with maybe a little more than that in the central and northern Green Mountains. Southeastern Vermont valleys could stay dry much of the day. 

Monday still looks cool and somewhat cloudy. We're still looking at some fairly widespread frost Monday night and Tuesday morning, but like I've said several times in the past week, a first frost and freeze this late is off the charts wacko.  I think many areas in the Champlain Valley will stay above freezing. 

ANOTHER BIG WARMUP

We're not done with this warm autumn just yet.  After Tuesday morning, we have another unseasonably warm week to look forward to. 

Tuesday looks seasonable, with highs in the 50s. That's just about normal for this time of year. By Wednesday and Thursday, it could even be warmer than last week was.  Highs will at least be in the 60s both days.  Some forecasts call for a high of 70 in the warmer valleys on Thursday.  

So those indoor chores you're doing on this raw Sunday probably shouldn't be putting away your t-shirts and shorts for the winter just yet. 

Vermont Super Soaker Soaking Even More Than Originally Thought

Before this weekend's storm arrived and as dark clouds
gathered Friday, one last splash of sun lit up this
colorful hillside in St. Albans. 

When I got up before dawn this Saturday morning, it was really raining out there.  We've already gotten more rain than I thought we would up until this point, And there's a lot more to go. 

Despite the extra rain,  I'll avoid spooking jittery Vermonters to say it still doesn't look like there will be any serious flooding. But yes, it's a soggy weekend.  Friday was a tale of two very different types of weather in Vermont. 

In some parts of Vermont and surrounding areas, the action started Friday.  The southeastern half of the state had a cool and showery Friday,  with some bursts of  rather heavy rain in far southeastern Vermont in the evening.

In northwestern Vermont, Friday turned out mostly cloudy, but dry. Dark clouds mixed with breaks of low angle sun made some dramatic, gorgeous views of very late season peak foliage remaining for now in the Champlain Valley. 

From roughly midnight through the time I'm writing this after 7 a.m. a wide band of moderate to at times heavy rain was moving north to south over the western half of Vermont and eastern New York. Rain was also falling further east but was lighter.

Totals so far are impressive.  By 7 a.m., Burlington had already picked up just under an inch and a half of rain.  The city will probably receive at least another inch before this is over. 

For Vermont as a whole, expect a total of 1.5 to a little over three inches of rain by the time things finally end Sunday night.  This will be the second impressively wet storm of the month. 

If you want to look for a bright side, at least the ski areas will have plenty of ground water, and certainly no drought conditions for when they start making snow for the slopes. 

REST OF TODAY

The rain will continue to drone on all day. Sometimes, it will come down pretty heavily, other times it will taper to sprinkles and patchy drizzle, and yet other times it will be fairly light but still drenching enough. This state of affairs will continue into tonight. 

It will be cooler than it's been, with temperatures holding in the 50s. 

The Northeast River Forecast Center has the most rain
from this storm over Vermont and New Hampshire.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see
Widespread two to three inches of rain expected.

Although no widespread flooding is expected, I do wonder about storm drains and culverts with all the fallen and falling leaves.  Clogged drains in urban areas could create some flooding on streets.

As I mentioned yesterday, leaves swept downstream in rising brooks and streams sometime encounter obstructions like branches and culvert edges.  The leaves then pack together and form dams, which can back up  and divert water and erode driveways and back roads and such.

Also, i these leaf dams break, they can unleash a very, very localized flash flood which could cause some issues. 

This is not any kind of serious threat like we experienced in the summer. Still, after such a wet year, it would be a bummer to have you suffer some isolated damage to your property. If you see one of these leaf dams starting to cause trouble, maybe grab a rake or a shovel and break the leaf dam up. But only if it's safe to do so.

Main rivers across Vermont will rise fairly sharply by Sunday, but won't go into flood stage, so we're safe there. 

RAW SUNDAY

Sunday still looks pretty awful. It won't rain nearly as much as it did today, became the storm will be departing into southeastern Canada.

However, you know how often in the winter, after a nor'easter, wrap around moisture keeps light snow going for the whole next day after the main storm, especially in the mountains?  That state of affairs hits Sunday, but it will be just a little too warm for snow, 

Warm is not the word you'll use to describe Sunday, though. We should see frequent light showers or even a steady light rain in spots. Temperatures will never get past the mid-40s during the day. Such a cool day is usually not odd for late October. However, up until now, this autumn has been ridiculously warm.  Sunday will be by far the coldest day of the season.  So it will take some getting used to.

Especially since the chill and the rain will be accompanied by blustery north to northwest winds. Like I said yesterday, Sunday will be an excellent day to take in some NFL games. If you're not into that, I wonder what Netflix or Hulu has to offer?

On the mountaintops, it might get cold enough for a little snow, sleet or even freezing rain. Yuck!  Don't worry, that should only be a problem up on the summits, not where pretty much all of us live.

It gets better, but stays cool Monday.  I'm beginning to doubt forecasts of widespread frosts in at least some parts of Vermont Monday night and Tuesday morning. I think places away from the Champlain Valley still have a decent risk of a frost, which for many will be the latest on record.

Chances seem to be increasing that the Champlain Valley will escape a frost/freeze, but to be on the safe side, I'd still take sensitive plants indoors  

The forecast for upcoming week has more question marks than usual, but if this forecast pans out, the Champlain Valley would remain frost-free at least until next weekend.  

 

Another Weekend Big Soaker Coming To Vermont/New England Stick Season To Arrive

Still some decent fall colors yesterday in the Champlain
Valley, as seen in this shot in St. Albans, but this 
weekend's storm will mostly introduce 
us to stick season. 

 Early this month, we had a real soaker of a rain storm. The western half of Vermont in particular got it, with two to in some places more than four inches of rain.  

We have that soaker's kid sister coming up this weekend. Though rainfall won't be quite as much as the earlier storm, the 1.5 to three inches of rain in the forecast between now and Sunday night is pretty impressive.

The bad news is the long duration storm means the weekend will pretty much be a washout. It will rain most of the time, and turn chillier, and windier by Sunday. 

The good news is because it will take a couple days for that rain to accumulate, much of the water will soak into the ground, and the chances of flooding are pretty low. 

This will be a foliage season ender.  It's already way past peak in northern and central Vermont. As of yesterday, there was still some nice late season color in the Champlain Valley and warmer valley floors of southern Vermont. 

But the persistent rain and wind will pretty much introduce us to stick season. After this weekend, there will only be pockets of autumn color left. 

This is also how there could be some localized flood risks. All those fallen leaves get swept down small brooks and streams.  Then they all get stuck on an obstruction, like branches or a culvert. These packs of leaves can become really effective dams, backing up water. Sometimes, they'll let go, causing a bit of a flash flood downstream that can damage driveways and culverts and such.  

If you see leaves forming these dams and threatening culverts, try to break them up if you can do so safely. 

It's a one-two punch, with an initial disturbance coming from the south and a  wet cold front coming in from the west. That will set off today's showers, moving south to north across Vermont today.  The heavier rain today will be in southern Vermont, with lighter, more scattered stuff further north. 

Then a new, secondary coastal storm will get going and become the dominant storm Saturday into Sunday. This one will soak New England, including all of Vermont. 

The bulk of the rain will come down on Saturday. Through Saturday, it will remain mild-ish, but it won't feel that way with all the rain and the damp breezes. After highs in the 60s for most of us today, lows will only go into the 50s tonight, and stay in the upper 50s Saturday. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is
predicting more than two inches of rain (orange shading)
in much of Vermont between now and Sunday evening. 

As the storm heads off into Canada Sunday, the rain will become lighter and eventually more showery. But it still looks like a nasty day.  A good day to stay inside and watch NFL football, I guess. 

 It won't be that cold for this time of year, with highs near 50 or just above that.  Such temperatures are only slightly on the cool side for this time of year. 

But those cold rain showers and north winds gusting to more than 20 mph, it will feel rather miserable out there. 

If there's any snow, it will be limited to near the summits of the Adirondacks and Green and White Mountains. It also won't amount to much, so don't get your skis or snowboards out just yet. 

Monday still looks brighter, breezy and chilly, with highs only in the upper 40s to near 50.  Monday night, some areas of Vermont will see their first frost and freeze of the season, which is incredibly late.

Some areas, especially in the Champlain Valley might manage to stay above freezing Monday night and Tuesday morning, which will prolong this weird frost-free season longer.

Long Boring Vermont Gloomy Stretch To End In Rain, Wind And Frost

A bit of sun broke through the clouds in Charlotte, Vermont
Wednesday afternoon, lighting up some late
season fall foliage. 

 We in Vermont have been stuck in a weird steady state, mostly cloudy, mild and sprinkly phase for 11 days now.  

That's a long time to go with every day bringing the same weather over and over in a state noted for its changeable conditions.

It hasn't been all bad.  We've had splashes of sunshine here and there. Rainfall has been scattered and brief. And it's been on the warm side, especially at night. 

The weather, though tolerable,  has been pretty boring, though, to be honest.

Well, folks, changes are finally coming, but not everybody will like them. We are getting into the end of October, though, so we can't expect that much greatness.

A temperature inversion that has been  holding in the clouds is finally forecast to break today, just in time to make room for a new storm. 

The sun will probably come out, at least a little this afternoon, and it will be warm again with highs topping out in the 60s. You'll notice a real breeze kick in, too.  Which is a change, as it's been pretty calm along with the patchy drizzle and clouds.

Friday, it'll be cloudy and warm with a rising chance of rain as the big weather changes approach. 

VERY WET SATURDAY?

One storm is coming in from the west, another from the south. They'll tend to merge over New England Friday night and Saturday.  That means we're in for another rainy weekend. Especially Friday night and Saturday. Sorry kiddies, Saturday looks like a washout.  This won't be the spotty drizzly we've been having, but a true soaking. 

As it stands now, this looks to be a soaker, with most of us seeing more than an inch of rain between Friday night and Sunday afternoon. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center actually has us in a marginal risk for flash flooding Saturday.  

However, I don't think there's much of a threat. It won't be enough rain to really fill the rivers. I suppose there could be a little street flooding from storm drains clogged with leaves.  And if more rain than expected comes, there could be some issues. But worse case scenario at this point looks like very minor flooding.  

COLDER BLAST 

As the storm begins to depart, it will really wind up over eastern Quebec.  That means much colder weather, with gusty winds by Sunday.  It will also be showery, so absolutely not a nice day.

The rain on Sunday will probably be just occasional and not heavy, but it sure won't be pleasant as temperatures hold in the 40s with northwest winds probably gusting to 30 mph, at least as things look from this vantage point. 

Mountain summits look like they'll have a real chance of snow Sunday and Sunday evening. 

Monday will be brighter, but still much chillier than we've gotten used to. Most of us will stay at or below 50 degrees all day.  Which leads us to the first widespread frost and freeze of the season.

FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK

This threat of the first freeze of the season Monday night and Tuesday morning is awfully late. In fact it will be the latest first freeze of the season on record in many parts of Vermont.  

Oddly, there won't be any frost or freeze warnings with this, because it's considered past the growing season. Though many of us are still enjoying harvests from our gardens and late blooming flowers in the perennial beds. 

It's a little early to tell for sure, but the Banana Belt Champlain Valley might not even get below freezing. Current forecast lows for Burlington are 35 degrees Tuesday morning. That's setting Burlington up for its own potential record for latest first freeze.

If there's no freeze this coming Tuesday, October 24 as measured at the Burlington International Airport in South Burlington, then an expected warming trend over the course of next week will keep a freeze at bay even longer. 

The record latest freeze as measured at the airport was on October 26, 2018. Prior to 1941, Burlington's weather was measured closer to Lake Champlain, which has warmer nights than at the airport during the autumn.

When records were kept near downtown Burlington, the latest first freeze on record was November 1, 1920. It'll be interesting to see how we do. 

None of this weather over the weekend and early next week is the least bit unusual for this time of year. But we continue to get a false sense of security by this long spell of warm weather. It's been mostly near normal or warmer than average with only the briefest of exceptions really since late August.  

It's been a strange ride this year. 

Canceled Biden Trip Would Have Been An Unintentional Climate Irony Moment

A huge coal train derailment in Pueblo, Colorado
on Sunday. It has blocked Interstate 25 since, snarling
traffic in the region. Photo is from Pueblo
County Sheriff's Office. 

President Joe Biden was supposed to travel to Pueblo, Colorado on Monday to talk about his clean energy initiative. 

He canceled at the last minute. He (quite reasonably, in my opinion) decided to instead hold meetings with his national security team regarding Israel's deadly war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. 

The trip to Colorado would have been a bit of an ironic moment. Any trip to a U.S. city by the President would screw up local traffic, due to the security such a visit would entail.   

The traffic in Pueblo would be extra messed up by a Biden visit for this reason: A coal train Sunday derailed on a bridge above busy Interstate 25. The bridge collapsed, sadly killing a passing truck driver.  Coal spilled everywhere, closing the Interstate in both directions and disrupting traffic throughout the city. 

As of last night, Interstate 25 was still closed and was expected to remain that way at least until this afternoon (October 18) as tons of coal and wreckage are cleaned up. 

The Associated Press reports:

"A nine-mile stretch of I-25 - used by 39,000 to 44,000 vehicles daily - was shut down. Traffic was being detoured around the derailment site and through the town of Penrose, almost 30 miles west of Pueblo."

So yeah, pretty messy. Imagine mixing Biden's motorcade and security into that mess. 

 Coal isn't exactly clean energy.  It's one of the main, dirtiest culprit in causing climate change. Plus, the point of Biden's visit was to promote a clean energy industry aimed at muting the dangerous effects of climate change. 

It wasn't the entire coal industry's fault the derailment happened. Investigators think a broken rail was behind the disaster. 

But had Biden come to Pueblo to chat up his clean energy initiatives, the coal train disaster would have been pretty ironic.  I haven't heard of clean energy causing big problems like the train wreck, but maybe you can guide me toward an example.  

I get it that the situation in Gaza that Biden is dealing with is zillions of times worse and more complicated than the train derailment. But I can't resist highlighting the irony of the derailment and Biden's intentions for going to Pueblo.