The Vermont Deep Chill Stays Deep; Subtle, Weak Signs Of Eventual Relief

Some days this time of year I don't want to go beyond
my front door to take a photo. Just too cold. Today
was one of those days. Can't imagine I'll be 
gardening out in this yard anytime soon. 

This has really been a long winter in Vermont. 

The snowy,  chilly weather started early, in the first half of November. We've had some sort of mild spells, but most of the time, it's been cold, snowy or both. 

The current cold wave is the most disheartening yet because it's lasting longer than any spell of Arctic air since January, 2005. 

We have gotten a bit soft, and not used to this. 

This morning, it was below zero across Vermont again.  On the plus side, winds keep temperatures from completely bottoming out. 

Pretty much everybody stayed in the single numbers below zero. But the northwest breeze has dropped our wind chills into the 20s below zero. 

It could have been worse. Conditions over in New York shows what can happen when winds go calm on a clear Arctic night. In Watertown, New York, just after winds went calm, the temperature fell from minus 2 to minus 17 within an hour late last evening, on its way down to a ridiculous low of 33 below early this morning. Not wind chill. Actual temperature. Down in Glens Falls, New York, it was 21 below this morning. 

I'm not anticipating anything that ridiculous in Vermont coming up. But it'll stay cold. Everyone in Vermont except maybe the warmest southern valleys should stay in the single numbers today. 

Through Sunday, highs will be in the teens and lows will go into the single numbers. The overall cold pattern still looks like it will continue into mid-February. 

I know many people love this. A true Vermont winter made for winter sports, ice fishing or just the fresh white scenery. 

There's a bunch of us, though who are so ready for a change. For spring. That's not coming anytime soon. But we have several glimmers of positivity to hang on to for dear life. They're not much, but we'll take anything we can get:

Nor'easter: Definitely a whiff. Winter storm warnings are up for the Carolinas and parts of Georgia. North Carolina's Outer Banks will endure a full-blown blizzard with 65 wind gusts and dangerous coastal flooding. This storm will also knick Cape Cod and the islands. 

But for us in Vermont, it will only throw some high clouds our way and maybe increase the north winds slightly on Sunday. 

A "Warm-up":  The cold should temporarily relax for a good part of next week with highs on several days making it to near 20 or even the low to mid 20s. That's still a few degrees colder than average, but it's not as cold as we're experiencing now. However, there are signs that "heat wave" might only last a few days. Still, it's something

No Records: We've gotten wimpy. We're not even close to setting much in the way of winter extreme records. Maybe it feels like things are off the charts but they aren't. Sure, snow depth atop Mount Mansfield earlier this winter was at record highs are are above normal now. The 81 inches of snow cover measured yesterday up there was the third highest for the dates

But here in the valleys, as measured in Burlington, as of yesterday, they were only 10 inches ahead of normal for seasonal snowfall for the date. Very little, if any snow will fall for at least the next week. 

And as we head into February, we absolutely won't break our record for the coldest temperature of the moth, which is 30 below in 1979 for Burlington. 

Turn Of The Clock: On average, the coldest days of the year in Burlington just ended today. From January 17 through 28, the normal average temperature in Burlington is 20 degrees. Today, that average increases to 20.5. The average will very gradually, grudgingly go up in February, then that pace will get faster starting in March. 

Also, the sunset in Burlington will come at 5 p.m. tomorrow.  That'll be the first 5 p.m. sunset of the year. 

Pattern Change Hint? For the first time in weeks, the people at the National Weather Service who put together the daily 8 to 14 day outlooks yesterday suggested a pattern change might be in the offing during the second half of February. 

They don't say exactly what that pattern change would be, but chances are it would the warmer for us. I'm still skeptical because what is known as the Arctic Oscillation is still negative and should stay that way at least into mid-February. 

A negative Arctic Oscillation, means high pressure in the Arctic with relatively warm, for them temperatures. This pattern squashes the cold air that is supposed to be up in northern Canada down into our faces south of the border in the eastern United States.

There are tentative, uncertain signs the negative Arctic Oscillation could start to weaken after the middle of February. 

This is a thin strand of hope, but some of us will take anything. 

weak signs of improvemet'

ave temp up 

first 5 p.m. sunset tomorrow. 

hints at pattern change

some days in 20s not teens next wee 

One Of Vermont's Sunniest Autumns Ever Finally Gives Way To Clouds

The setting sun briefly lit up these trees in St.
Albans, Vermont late Tuesday afternoon, but you
can still see the thick gray clouds in the background.
It has finally gotten cloudier in Vermont in recent
days, but unfortunately not much wetter. 

Vermont has a cloudy reputation. 

No matter the time of year, chances are, if you make outdoor plans, you'll end up under at least partly cloudy skies if not an overcast.

But in the late summer and autumn drought, it was one sunny day after another. It was like Home On The Range, where the skies are not cloudy all day. It felt like California weather moved to Vermont. 

By my rough, unofficial count, 19 days in both August and September were mostly sunny to clear. Ten of the first 12 days of October in northern Vermont were also clear to at least mostly sunny.

Cloudy Vermont usually starts to get even more overcast around the autumn solstice. Late autumn through early winter is usually the cloudiest part of the year in the Green Mountain State. 

Sometimes in late October, November and December, you can go a week or even more without seeing the sun. This week, a little belatedly, those clouds have finally arrived.  It's not that we won't see the sun ever again. It's just that it won't be as frequent. 

Too bad that so far, those clouds aren't accompanied by much desperately needed rain. 

We did have a solid overcast Monday and Tuesday. For most of us, yesterday was as gloomy as it can get.  We had low clouds, fog, a little drizzle. Northwest Vermont had a glimpse of sun right before sunset, but that was about it. 

That drizzle didn't amount to much. Between Monday and Tuesday, Burlington only had 0.05 inches of rain.   My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans did better, sort of, collecting 0.22 inches over the two days. Montpelier managed to receive 0,26 in those two days.

That's not exactly a drought buster. We need a drenching! We're still in search of it.

LOOKING AHEAD

Clouds will hang tough today and tomorrow, but they won't yield any rain aside from an isolated sprinkle over the hills. 

A cold front blew through early this morning, sweeping away any lingering fog and drizzle. Today and tomorrow will feature mostly cloudy skies for most of us, chilly temperatures and a stiff north wind that will make it feel even colder. 

High temperatures will barely make it into the low 50s today and tomorrow. Tonight will go into the low and mid 30s. Thursday night will drop us into the mid 20s to low 30s. 

The summer that lasted into October is definitely over. 

We'll see some breaks of sun both today and tomorrow, especially in the broader valleys and in southeastern Vermont. Tomorrow will be the sunnier of the two days. 

The sun should be back in full force Friday, Saturday and part of Sunday amid a warming trend. Saturday will be the pick of the week with lots of sunshine and temperatures near or a little above 60. Sunday will be even warmer, as some places could touch 70. But by afternoon, it looks like the clouds will be coming back. 

Another storm system should come through Sunday night and Monday. We're still getting hints we could see a decent, though not huge amount of rain then. 

I might not believe it until I see it. We've been burned many times before over the past few months, where we thought we had a good shot at seeing a soaking, and nothing happened. 

On the other hand, solid doses of rainfall on September 25 and October 7 briefly stalled the drought's worsening trend. If Sunday night and Monday are the start of a wetter trend, that would be terrific.

What I'm seeing, though are signs of a cloudier, but not necessarily super wet weather pattern heading through the end of the month. A handful of models bring a former hurricane near New England toward the end to October, but that type of specific long range forecast is seldom accurate. 

My advice? Keep doing those rain dances. 

 

Hints Of Springtime In Vermont That Feel Wintry Happening, And Coming Up

River gauge readings from yesterday on the Mad River
in Moretown, Vermont. Click on the image to make
it bigger and easier to read. You can see an
abrupt rise in the river as water backed up behind
an ice jam. Then the river level dropped back down
suddenly when the ice jam broke up.

 No big storms are on Vermont's immediate horizon, but some subtle and potentially frustrating little weather events coming up are sort of signs of spring.  

Even though those signs of spring are paradoxically wintry.

ICE JAMS

The first of course is ice jams, something we had to keep an eye on during Thursday. 

Thawing weather and rain basically created piles of ice. 

There was a lot of ice movement on the rivers, and some of that ice got jumbled up into piles and clogs near obstructions. There were only perhaps a couple real ice jams in Vermont that I'm aware of. They caused at worst minor flooding and minor damage.

The jams didn't form in the "wrong" places - i.e. just downstream from a riverside town or city.  So in this case we didn't have to deal with a lot of buildings getting flooded, 

The most notable jam was - as mentioned yesterday - on the Mad River near Moretown. You can see on the chart in this post how the jam abruptly made the river rise to flood stage. Then the jam apparently broke and the water level almost instantly returned to normal levels.

With colder air in place, if there are any ice jams, they're probably pretty stable for now. They could always abruptly move, but the chances of new problems with these over the next few days is pretty low.

CONVECTIVE SNOW?

Convective clouds and updrafts gather themselves into
rain and snow showers last March 17 in St. Albans,
Vermont.  This time of year, the sun begins to get
strong enough to help power scattered hit and 
miss snow showers even on cold, blustery days.

In the warmer seasons, strong sunshine can cause updrafts.  Under the right conditions those updrafts can help form showers and thunderstorms. That's why we do have those hit and miss storms all summer around here. Those scattered showers and storms are known as convection. 

Now, today by any measure will be a chilly and blustery one, nothing summery about it.  Temperatures will barely get to freezing if that. It's so gusty that a wind advisory is up for most of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley. In the advisory area, gusts to 50 mph could cause some isolated power outages.

Helping with the gusts is the strengthening March sun. It's getting powerful enough to heat the ground to an extent, creating updrafts and instability that can bring higher gusts to the surface. The fields and forest floors are still snow-covered, so the effect isn't nearly as pronounced as it would be with bare ground, but the sun can have an effect. 

The air is a bit unstable to begin with, so a few snow showers are inevitable anyway. That sunshine peaking through the clouds today might help power up some scattered hit and miss snow showers, much like those summer thunder showers.  Since this is convective, a few might be very briefly heavy with stronger, gustier winds. 

Most of us won't see something like this today, but a few places probably will. So yes, a harbinger of spring will probably generate a few minutes-long little mini-blizzards here and there. Luckily, there will be no big snow accumulations out of any of this. 

You're probably going to see more of this type of situation on blustery days during the rest of March and probably a good chunk of April.

BATTLEGROUND

A frustrating aspect of spring - especially in March and April in Vermont - is those pesky stalled fronts in which it seems everybody in the central and eastern U.S. is enjoying spring weather except northern New England. 

The battle line this time of year between the forces of spring and the waning strength of winter is right along the Canadian border.  For the most part, that battle line is further north than, say, January. 

The result this time of year is that as most places warm up, often  a shallow, dense layer of chilly air oozes down from Quebec, making parts of Vermont shiver while places not that far south enjoy balmy, sunny spring breezes.

This set up seems to most often affect the northern Champlain Valley. They cold air hugs the surface and often extends upward only a few thousand feet. 

There's no mountains to block this shallow cold air between Quebec and northwest Vermont, so the chilly air floods in.  You end up with days in which say, Bennington, might be sunny and 60 degrees and St. Albans is stuck in the mid-30s. 

This set up looks like it might happen toward Wednesday. Initially, some warm air would bathe pretty much all of Vermont. Forecasts call for highs in the low 50s Tuesday, which would make it the warmest day so far this year. 

Then that pesky shallow cold air from Quebec seems to want to make an appearance. Currently, forecast highs in the northern Champlain Valley are around the low 40s Wednesday, but I think it might even be colder than that. This situation would probably linger into at least Thursday. 

These things are a little hard to predict and tease out days in advance, so things might still work out differently midweek. We shall see. 

Even so, that low level cold air is another paradoxal sign of spring.  Northern Vermont is in the war to reach spring. Chances are we'll lose the battle Wednesday, but we'll win the overall war eventually. 

The Beginning Of The End Of A Vermont Winter

A crocus emerges from the snow last spring in
St. Albans, Vermont.  Believe it or not, the
harshest part of winter is about to end, but
that doesn't mean we'll escape the occasional
frigid day or snowstorm. 

A Don't let the headline on this post completely fool you. 

We still have a pretty good amount of winter left to go here in Vermont. It's only late February, after all.

Recent winters have been springlike, so when spring really got here in those years, it almost felt anticlimactic. 

This year, we're certainly having a  much  more "traditional" winter this go around.  So for now, we have to harken back to the way seasons used to work before climate change. Many of us have an old fashioned, traditional case of spring fever. 

Right on cue, we are now at what I would consider the beginning of the end of winter. 

It's been pretty hard core in recent weeks up until now. If no more snow falls in Burlington this month, the 31.8 inches of snow the city has gotten this month will make this the sixth snowiest February on record.  The month is also running four degrees or so colder than normal.

(That's the new, warmer normal of course. Had we been having this same exact month back in the 1970s, it would be pretty close to what was then normal).

Even so this is the time of year when we see the harshness of winter begin to break, just a little. You'll see that this coming week with that anticipated thaw. 

Temperature forecasts have actually trended a little warmer for the upcoming week. In lower elevations, you'll probably see noticeably less snow on the ground that you do today.  Most of that will be because the warmth is settling the snow. But some of it will melt. Especially since bits of light rain could fall Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons in most valleys. 

It all means most of us - except those in higher elevations - have probably see the deepest snow of the winter already.  

The snow won't come close to entirely disappearing, of course. There will still be plenty left by the end of the week. Especially since some additional snow is possible toward Thursday night and Friday when it's expected to start turning colder again. 

A little additional snow is expected up in the mountains off and on all week, so they might end up with a slight net gain in snow cover. That takes us to the next month. 

MARCH

You can obviously see extreme winter conditions in March that are just as bad as the worst that even January can bring.  It's been as cold as 24 below in Burlington in March. Seven of Burlington's top 20 biggest snowstorms have hit in March. 

But in general, even if it's cold - like this March seems like it wants to shape up to be - you see signs the grip of winter is beginning to weaken. 

While we hope to see some thawing in March, we often
also see some big snowy setbacks. Pictured here is the
Pi Day Blizzard in St. Albans, Vermont, March 14, 2017

The sun angle in March  is much higher than it was in December.  So even on blue sky days that are well below freezing, the strength of the afternoon sun melts the south and west sides of snowbanks a little. 

The trunks of trees collect the sun's warmth, and you see the snow melting away from those tree trunks a bit. You start to see rings of bare ground around those trees. 

If light snow falls during the day, chances are the roads won't be as tricky as they would have been earlier in the winter. The sun's heat making its way through the clouds might warm up the pavement a bit, making things less treacherous.

Lake Champlain

Our big Lake Champlain has come closer to freezing over this year than it has since 2019, which is the last time it completely froze. 

There is some open water left on the lake, and the upcoming week's warm spell could remove some of the thin ice on the broad lake.

Lake Champlain could still freeze over completely, but the chances of that happening this year are beginning to diminish. 

It's the sun angle again.  Even it it's cold, the sun can heat up surface of any darker open water, melting the ice next to it a little.  

Still, if we have some calm, subzero nights in early March - which has happened in many years - Lake Champlain could still completely freeze over.  In 2019, the lake froze over briefly on March 8 because the little bit of open water on March 7 that year froze over as temperatures bottomed out to around 0 on the morning of March 8. 

Snow

I mentioned the likely slow melt of the snow in March, but we almost always have snowy setbacks to the slow melt down of our winter snow cover.  

The warming spring air can actually, ironically make snowfall heavier, which is probably part of the reason why so many of those greatest snow have happened in March. 

Large storm systems depend on a contrast of warm, humid air to the south and cold air to the north. 

Once we get into March, the air feeding into storms from the south is warmer and more humid than it would have been in midwinter. Since that warmer, wetter air can hold more moisture, precipitation can be heavier in a March storm than one back in January. 

If that added moisture rides up into the cold air to the north - and if Vermont is in that cold air - we can really get dumped on.  As recently as 2017 the famous Pi-Day blizzard deposited nearly three feet of snow in northern Vermont. 

Since it is warmer in March, as we go through the month, some of the snowstorms will feature wetter, heavier snow, since the temperatures are more likely be near near 32 degrees in a March storm. 

Also, if you're sick of snow, March snow tends to start melting almost immediately after the storm ends. That's especially true as we get deeper into the month. 

The approach of spring comes with a lot of false starts, as we in Vermont know well.  But the trend line is our friend if you're getting tired of winter. 

The normal high temperature today is 33 degree, at least as measured in Burlington. By March 1, it's 36. Exactly a month from now, on March 22, the normal high is up to 43 degrees.

We're at the point now where people who love winter still have plenty of time to enjoy. Those who are less enthusiastic can now start to seek out signs of the end of all these frigid temperatures and huge snowbanks. 

Before you know it, happy yellow daffodils will be dancing in the warm breezes of a Vermont spring. 

New Signs Of Autumn Amid Beautiful Vermont Weather

 Sunny days are of course common in Vermont in the summer. 

Rose Mallow blooms beneath a blue sky Wednesday evening
The whole day featured wall to wall sunshine in Vermont
and we're going to do it again today. 

But those sunny days almost always feature a few puffy clouds to decorate the sky. 

 In the heat of say, July, there's almost always enough moisture, enough updrafts to create those scattered clouds, even on days when the humidity is low. 

We had on Wednesday another sign that summer is waning fast in Vermont. It was the fact that, after the morning fog burned off in spots, the sky was blue and for most of us, completely cloudless.

If we're going to have a sign of autumn, it might as well take the form of a gorgeous day, right?

In the spring and the first half of autumn, you get these high pressure systems with dry air throughout pretty much all the layers of the atmosphere. The sinking air associated with these strong high pressure systems tend to squelch any clouds.

We awoke to crystal clear skies again this morning. Most if not all of today will be a rerun of Wednesday's great weather: Bluebird skies warm after a comfortable early morning and low, low humidity. 

This type of weather is pretty frequent in many Vermont Septembers, so it  won't hurt to hope this trend continues. 

We do have at least an interruption in this spectacular weather coming up.  Unfortunately, it's hitting on the weekend. 

A deep trough of low pressure is about to carve itself a spot over the Great Lakes, and swing a cold front through here sometime on Saturday. It looks like it create a period of rain on that day. 

It'll be another of many signs of autumn. The rain will almost certainly not come in the form of lines of thunderstorms like you get in mid-summer. Instead, it will be a period of perhaps soaking rain, not showery stuff. 

Following the cold front - and again this is a  classic autumn pattern - the core of the cold upper level low will pass overhead Sunday and Monday. That'll cause mostly cloudy skies, light showers and cool temperatures.  

Satellite view from Wednesday afternoon shows 
cloudless skies over Vermont, along with most of 
the rest of the Northeast. Just a few wisps of
wildfire smoke visible, but not much of it.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says there could even be a wet snowflake or two during this on the highest peaks of Adirondacks and possibly northern Green Mountains. 

This wouldn't amount to anything if it happens, and a couple wet snowflakes on mountain summits isn't weird for this time of year, but it's a sign of the season.

By the way, the date in which the record was set for the earliest snowflakes and for measurable autumn snow atop Mount Mansfield have passed. 

The earliest snow flurry on record up there was on August 30, 1976. The earliest measurable snow was the 0.3 inches that fell on top of the mountain on September 2, 1967.

If you're a glutton for punishment and want early snows down in the Champlain Valley, don't hold your breath. The records for early snows in Burlington, according to the National Weather Service are as follows:

Earliest trace was on September 23, 1950, and the earliest measurable was the 0.1 inches on September 30, 1992.

For those of you who prefer the bright sunny weather we're having this week, signs are sort of pointing toward another spell of gorgeous weather once we get into the middle of next week. Fingers crossed!

I'm Now Declaring That Vermont Summer Is Over

Altocumulus clouds cover the sky over St. Albans, 
Vermont last evening. I tend to associate these clouds
with autumn, which is in keeping with my 
thinking that summer is over. 

OK, I've decided, summer is over. 

My ruling is the most subjective of them all, but it's plain our hot, wet, humid summer is behind us.  

That's not to say we won't have any more warm or even hot weather. Or humid spells. We probably will. But the season has turned. 

This feeling that summer is over almost always used to hit in mid to late August. In recent years, it seems like we have to wait until early or even mid-September for the bulk of summer to be over.  

And it's still possible we could have a long stretch of mid-summer like weather as the calendar turns to September. 

But the weather lately has checked all the boxes for calling an end to summer. 

There are so many signs. One is the spots of fall color you see here and there in the otherwise still green landscape of Vermont. That's typical of late August, but there does seem to be a bit more of that color than I usually see this time of year. That could just be my imagination or impression, who knows.

Even the warm spells have an autumn feel. 

Tuesday evening a brief surge of warm, humid air was making its way into Vermont. In full summer, it doesn't take much to bring such weather into the Green Mountain State, so spells of muggy weather don't have much wind when they arrive at our doorstep in, say, July.

But Tuesday evening, as I sat in my outdoor tub enjoying the cool water, I watched the trees sway in a gusty south winds. It's starting to take more force to drive toasty air into Vermont. 

Cold fronts have lately been bringing cooler and cooler air to the Green Mountain State. The opening salvo was those three days that never got out of the 60s for highs last week. It got down to 51 degrees in Burlington this morning. That's not particularly chilly for this time of year, but it was still the coolest morning since June 28.

The forecast has more cool weather on our agenda.  After a brief squirt of somewhat higher humidity Saturday and parts of Sunday, Labor Day promises to be a classic crisp Vermont autumn day with sunshine and highs only reaching the 60s. 

Even the type of cloud cover we're seeing lately screams autumn. Last evening, we had a beautiful display of altocumulus clouds, which look like a series of small cotton balls covering the sky.  I associate this type of cloud with autumn, because it seems I see them most frequently in September or October.

The sounds outdoors have changed, too. I'm hearing far fewer songbirds and plenty more crickets, which is a classic autumn song list, if you will. 

Of course, there are more scientific and less subjective definitions of autumn than my own "feelings" about it. 

Astronomical autumn begins at 8:43 a.m. EDT on September 22. 

Meteorological autumn, which is an easy way for climatologists and others to assess a season's weather, starts September 1 and lasts through November 30.

Summer, at least measured in Burlington, Vermont, looks like it will be among the top five warmest. We were headed toward warmest summer on record, but the last ten days or so of cooler weather looks like it will keep 2020 in the top spot.

And, if Burlington gets at least 0.58 inches of rain during the expected showers on Saturday, it will become the city's tenth wettest summer on record. 

Long range forecasts suggest we'll have a warm, and possibly wet autumn here in Vermont. Long range forecasts aren't always accurate, but those hot predictions ahead of this summer proved accurate. And autumns have definitely trended warmer in recent years across Vermont. 

Seven of the top 10 warmest autumns in Burlington have happened since 2011. So, though summer might be over in my opinion, bouts of summer-like weather still seems to be on the horizon for awhile yet.  

Longing For Color: Photo Shows Exactly Why We Look Forward To Spring

A beautiful spring evening in my St. Albans, Vermont 
back yard. Photo taken on May 5, 2023.  Click on the 
image to make it bigger and easier to see. 

The snapshot photo in this post was taken in my St. Albans, backyard on the evening of May 5, 2023.

As far as composition and artistry and all that, the photo isn't much. But this time of year, I can't help just staring at it. 

The colors! As we are in this especially drab, gray, relatively snow-free winter, you're going to want to click on the photo, make it bigger and stare lovingly into it. 

The greens, with the speckled blue sky and the pops of yellow from the daffodils just bring such joy and, I don't know, ahhhh.

In three months or so, we will be free from this imprisonment of monotonous gray, brown, and dirty white.  With any luck, by early May, our surroundings will look something like the photo in this post. 

By the way, if you want more spring images to warm your heart, I've added a video to the bottom of this post. 

Anyway, sure we had blue skies for a change on Sunday, which were extremely welcome. But by February, we all wait desperately for the color that true spring brings. 

Click on the photo to make it bigger and easier to see. The late afternoon/early evening light and shadows in the photo bring out every possible shade of green. It helps that the tiny new leaves have that tender new born sort of bright baby green. 

You can see that the lawn could stand a mowing, but that tall grass looks so luxurious.  If I'm not mistaken, Jackson the Weather Dog that evening spent quite a bit of time rolling around in that grass. Which was a great idea. So I joined him. 

Whether you admit it or not, you would have done the same. 

 Check out that sky.  Sure, the beautiful blue skies on Sunday were a nice switch from the weeks of gloomy overcast we had, but Sunday's sky was still a cold, winter blue. 

The springtime blue sky in the photo has a benevolent, warm feeling to it. The scattered clouds complete the painterly feel of the atmosphere. They also have a vaguely unstable look to them, as if promising some springtime showers. 

You might guess from the photo that I like daffodils. Those pops of yellow just make me happy every spring. I have varieties that bloom early, mid-season and late to keep the show going. 

My only regret is I only have about 600 or so daffodils planted on my property. I wish I had thousands. Worse, I ran out of time to plant additional ones this past autumn. Well, there's always next year.  

I have lots of photos of my springtime gardens. My excuse for having the photos is it helps me plan improvements to the property. 

But frankly, I spent an embarrassing amount of time in February looking at those photos as entertainment. Just to take my mind off winter. Even winters as mild as this one has been.  

I know many people like winter. There's a lot of reasons why people would. But those green spring days and evenings  are absolutely heavenly. If there is a heaven, I hope it looks something like what's in the photo.

Video: Spring images from 2023. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Sharp Flip To Colder Vermont, And The Chill Will Have Staying Power

Harvesting beans just a week ago in 
my St. Albans, Vermont garden. Until
now, such a late harvest for beans
was unheard of in the Green Mountain State

Temperatures at dawn in the Champlain Valley this morning were in the mid-60s, which is actually warmer than normal for a July dawn, never mind the end of October. 

Enjoy it, because as of this writing at 8 a.m. Saturday, we have only a few more hours of it. Spoiler: We have a week of November like weather coming, and for some of us, there's snow in the forecast. 

The warmth this week has been impressive, though not as big-time as the beginning of the month, when we set all time record highs for the month. 

Still, Montpelier managed a record high of 71 degrees Friday, though records only go back to 1949. So it could have been warmer before that. There's evidence for that. Burlington fell short by one degree of tying a record  high of 74, set in 1947.

Across the pond, Plattsburgh had a record high for the date of 74, besting the old record of 72.

Rain showers were gathering in New York State and heading toward Vermont at dawn today. They won't amount to much, except they're part of that strong cold front heading our way. 

I wouldn't wear shorts and t-shirts out like I comfortably did yesterday. It was still summer wear weather  early this morning, but temperatures will fall this afternoon, especially the further northwest you go.

For instance, Burlington's forecast has an expectation of around 67 degrees at noon, but down to the mid-50s by dusk and mid-40s before midnight. 

And this the cold (but not at all abnormal!) weather begins. 

SUNDAY

Latest forecasts are holding off on the light rain for northern Vermont. But it still looks another rainy and dreary Sunday afternoon the further south you go. Rain won't be heavy, but with damp conditions and overcast everywhere, it won't be a nice day.

Summits will start to see snow Sunday afternoon or evening and snow levels will fall somewhat overnight, leading to a potentially interesting Monday for some of us

MONDAY

Although precipitation will not be heavy, it will be noticeable, especially as many of us see snow Monday morning.  This will be the first time this season some of us will have to drive in it. 

The snow, and the risk of slick roads, should be mostly at elevations of near 1,500  to 2,000 feet and above. That means most of us will be fine, though a few wet snow flakes could mix in all the way down to valley floors. 

Last leaves of autumn cling to trees near the 
Winooski River in Burlington Friday. 

Since none of us are used to driving in snow and some people don't have winter tires yet, there could be some spin outs on higher elevation roads and highways Monday morning. 

Think Route 4 at Mendon Mountain, Route 9 east of Bennington, possibly the high terrain along Interstate 89 near Brookfield, Route 17 over Buels Gore, places like that. 

Watch this one, though. I've seen surprises this time of year in which snow levels go lower than forecast. You never know. 

The rain and snow will taper off some in the afternoon, but it will remain cold

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

Most of Vermont has extremely oddly not had a freeze yet. That will change in the upcoming week.  Even the Banana Belt Champlain Valley should get below freezing on at least some mornings between Tuesday and Friday. 

That is extraordinarily late.  I found myself shockingly harvesting green beans last week, and I'm still getting healthy lettuce that was never protected from frost. 

Daytime highs should be in the 40s each day. 

This seems cold after our weirdly warm autumn so far. But the expected temperatures are only slightly cooler than normal, and it's been much colder than this in the past in late October. 

Record lows in the Champlain Valley are running in the 15 to 20 degree range, and record cold highs are in the low 30s.  We won't come remotely close to that. 

Despite the chillier weather to close October, it will still be among the top ten warmest Octobers on record, at least in Burlington. 

Hurricane Season Forecast Issued; A Really Complicated, Iffy Forecast

Satellite view of Hurricane Ian about to make landfall
in southwestern Florida last year. The number of
expected tropical storms and hurricanes this
year is really a tossup, according to forecasters. 

NOAA released its official hurricane season forecast on Thursday, and there are a lot of ifs and maybes win that prediction. 

There's two opposing forces going on in the Atlantic this year. One factor could give us a lot of hurricanes, but another factor could give us a lighter year than in the recent past. 

NOAA is pretty much splitting the difference, calling for a near-average hurricane season. 

On one hand, El Nino is developing, and that tends to help squelch hurricane activity in the Atlantic. On the other hand, thanks in large part to climate change, the Atlantic Ocean is much warmer than historical averages, and is expected to stay that way all summer and early fall.

Warm water tends to encourage more hurricane development. So the question is which will win out?

NOAA's annual hurricane forecast gives what they believe are the percentage chances of an above normal, quieter than average or typical hurricane season. This year's version really shows what a tossup the season is. 

NOAA tells us there's "a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above normal season and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season."

Yeah, that doesn't tell us much.  I guess the prospect for Atlantic hurricanes this year is anybody's guess.

For the record, NOAA says we should expect 12 to 17 names storms (ones with winds of 39 mph or more) and five to nine of these would be hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher. One to four of these would be major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more.

NOAA says it has a 70 percent confidence in these numbers. Again, pretty uncertain. 

Hurricane seasons in the past six years or so have been super active in the Atlantic Ocean, with several devastating hurricanes. Last year, two of them, Hurricane Fiona and especially Hurricane Ian, caused billions in property losses in Puerto Rico, Canada and Florida. 

Other hurricane forecasts for this year in the Atlantic Ocean vary. The British Met Office predicts a busy year, with 20 named storms, compared to an average of 14. The Met Office expects around 11 hurricanes, with around five major hurricanes. 

Colorado State University also issues closely-watched Atlantic hurricane forecasts. They're predicting a comparatively light storm season, with 13 named storms and six hurricanes. 

The two opposing forces - El Nino and the warm ocean water, could create a lot of nuances in the hurricane season. It's possible the warm water will generate lots of relatively weak, disorganized tropical storms that don't last long. Strong upper level winds generated by El Nino could rip them apart.

Or, the opposing forces could just re-arrange where the severest storms form.  As the Associated Press reports, University of Miami hurricane research Brian McNoldy says it's possible that El Nino would suppress hurricane activity in the Caribbean, but shift more activity northward to near Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.  

Whatever the number of tropical storms and hurricanes we see this year, remember, it only takes one to really strike a catastrophic blow. 

An often used example is the year 1992. Overall, it was a very quiet year, with just seven tropical storms, hurricanes or sub-tropical storms. But one of the storms was Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 monster with 175 winds that devastated much of South Florida. It directly caused 26 deaths and $25 billion in damage. 

Also, note that places that were struck by severe hurricanes in recent years have not yet fully recovered. .Any new hurricanes striking the same areas would be especially catastrophic.

Given all the uncertain hurricane forecasts out there, we'll just need to hope for great luck with these storms. 

  

The March Spring Thaw Is Both Ugly And Beautiful. In Video And Pics

The March melt and mud season in Vermont isn't the 
state's prettiest look, but it can have its quiet
anticipatory beauty. 

 March in Vermont this year is turning out the way it was when I was a kid decades ago

As we get into the closing week of the month, the snow cover is finally starting to lose the battle to spring. But only grudgingly.

Video of this year's March melt and mud is at the bottom of this post.  

 One day we have some strong sun that opens up more bare patches in the reflected sun's heat near the pine trees. The next day, rain washes some of the crusty old ice and snow away.  

It's an old fashioned year. Under our  climate change regime, we've gotten these weird, warm days in March which disappeared early in the month, and got the crocuses blooming way early - sometimes by St. Patrick's Day. 

Not this year. It actually feels a bit novel to have a throwback March like this. Though even this March is running somewhat warmer in Vermont than the long term average.  

This isn't the prettiest time of year. Old snow sort of half-heartedly glows under the overcast next to expanses of brown grass in open fields. Mud is everywhere. Along road sides, litter that has been buried in snow now glares at us with its own ugliness as we pass by in our mud-flecked and road salt encrusted cars. 

But this "ugly"  seasons is also hopeful, and in a strange way beautiful. On rainy days, the fog curls over remaining patches of snow, as if the damp south wind is trying to steam away the remaining ice. The melting snow and is cheered on by the calls of newly arrived red wind blackbirds. 

Garden plants have gotten used to getting an early start, thanks partly to climate change. This year, an odd, balmy January got daffodils, crocuses trying to come up in mid-January. Only to be denied in active. February and March snowfalls.

These daffodil shoots in St. Albans, Vermont aren't waiting
for the snow to melt to get on with the spring show. 

But the head start was already there, so these early perennials are in a premature schedule. It looks like they're saying, "Screw it. I know there's still a bunch of snow on the ground, but I'm coming on strong anyway."

 So daffodil shoots are popping up through the tops of fading snowbanks. 

Spring this year continues on in its uncertain fashion.  A new storm is probably going to give us a headache inducing mix of rain, ice and snow Saturday and Saturday night. 

Current forecasts don't indicate too much snow and ice accumulation in the valleys, but you never known. We could end up being tricked. Even if we don't. it'll slow down our spring melt a bit.  

There's also no spectacularly warm spring days in the immediate forecast. Eventually, real spring will come. But the tentative daffodil shoots, the mud and yes, even the roadside litter gives us hope that greener, warmer days are around the corner.   

Watch the video below to see what I mean by all this. It starts with a sunny phase of the thawing Wednesday, and moves on to the rainy phase on Thursday. Either click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that.

The Drip, Drip Of A Thaw Always Welcome After A March Snowstorm. With Video

As soon as the sun came out Sunday, the day after a 
modest snowstorm, the snow began to thaw. It
happens quickly with the strong March sun

 It's always amazing in March how much the sun goes to work on the snow after it stops falling.

It's not like December and January, when any snow that falls stays around, unless it really gets well above freezing. 

Last Saturday, we had about five inches of snow here in St. Albans. On Sunday, the sun came out, and the temperature got as high as 40 degrees. 

That's not an impressive thaw. But still, in March, with light winds and the strong sun, I was comfortable being outside for awhile in just boots, Carhartts and a black t-shirt. 

The snow on level ground and in the shade pretty much stayed put. But it was amazing how quickly the sun took the frosting off the trees, driveways, roofs, under the dark green of evergreens and in particularly sunny corners. 

It was a day to be out just watching it, whether at home, or running errands in town. Below is a video that gives you a taste of how winter was loosening its grip - perhaps temporarily - on Sunday. Church bells in St. Albans added a soundtrack to the sound of dripping icicles and water trickling into storm drains.   

To watch the video, click on this link, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Two Videos Show Vermont's Belated, Hesitant Shift To Winter

After a wet snowfall. Intervale, Burlington, Vermont 1/1/23,.

As almost everybody knows, I love watching all the subtle seasonal shifts that we experience here in Vermont as the calendar turns during the year. 

This year, winter arrived belatedly, but I was a keen observer of all this anyway. 

 I like to put these down on video, which you can enjoy them here. There's two videos, I'll describe the first one, show it then please scroll down for the second one 

They both show that even a lame winter in Vermont is still beautiful. 

The first video shows a gradual change from a paltry snow cover to an actual fairly decent, almost normal snow cover. It took a few mid-sized snowfalls to do it, but we accomplished it.  Click on this link to view if you doh't see the image of the video, or click on the image to view if you see it. 

The snow did come, but the weather stayed warm.  The snow was resilient, but thaws did want to eat away at it. A final thaw before winter really set in came on January 29. But in far northern Vermont, at least, the forces of snow won out.

The wet snow struggled to accumulate at first, but as temperatures dropped a little and the snow intensified, we added to the snow cover on the ground. At least a little. It was all pretty, even if motorists on the road in front of my house and my Jackson the Weather Dog weren't super enthusiastic. 

Again, click on this link to view or click on image below:

Video: Finally, A Little Vermont Snow

Light snow begins to whiten up the winter landscape
in St. Albans, Vermont on December 11, 2022.

 The classic first big snowstorm of the season in Vermont plays out like this:

It had been cold for a few days, so things have frozen up. The ground is hard and frosty. Ice is forming on the edges of the brooks, and the ponds have a thin skim of ice.  

The blue sky turns milky, with a big rainbow ring around the sun. Then the clouds get lower, thicker, duller, and blot out the sun.  It's gloomy.

Then you notice the tops of the mountains get blurry and disappear. That blurriness descends down the slopes of the mountains until a few snowflakes start drifting down. 

Soon, the snow gets steadier and heavier. A dark, bare landscape finally starts to glow winter white.

Well, there was an attempt, anyway at the scenario in Vermont on Sunday. The snow ultimately didn't amount to much, but otherwise the scenario above pretty much played out. Without the end result of deep snow, but that's OK. 

Of course, I had to video at least part of the sequence.  The sky had already turned gloomy, and water in the brooks made their way past building ice. Jackson the Weather Dog sniffed at  the changed in the weather coming, and shook the first few snowflakes of the day off his coat.  

 The dark, cold, landscape gradually took on some white highlights in the light falling snow. The roads got a bit icy as cars, with Christmas trees strapped on the roof, returned from the cut your own tree farm up in Bakersfield. 

The video is a glimpse of winter's (somewhat reluctant) arrival.  But there is the chance of an even bigger storm toward the end of the week. We'll see.

If you don't see the image of the video below, click on this link to view. Otherwise, click on the image below to view the video of an attempt at bringing on the early part of winter in Vermont: 

Video: A Quiet Lake Champlain Prepares For Winter

The quietest time on Lake Champlain is now. The summer
is long gone, and winter activity is awaiting a nice 
freeze over. 

 This past Sunday, a day after a super windy day and the day before a sort of, kind of windy day, it was wonderfully calm.  

I happened to be working near Lake Champlain, in and around Swanton, Vermont.  

It was a terrific, quiet early December day in which the lake was clearly preparing itself for winter.  And of course I had to make a quick video.

It was pretty silent. The birds, the summer vacationers, the swimmers and the boaters were long gone.  The summer camps were all buttoned up for the winter. The only noise was the subtle splashing of a few ducks in the water.

Activity returns to the lake soon. This part of the lake freezes over pretty early.  Ice fishing enthusiast will soon take over with their shanties and snowmobiles and such.  Maybe a few ice skaters will glide through this part of the lake too, if the ice is smooth enough and not much snow falls. 

I's been on the mild side lately, so no ice yet.  But there were hints of what was to come. A little ice had formed on exposed rocks and branches that were hit by small waves when the wind was blowing a little the night before. 

Any ice out there is still fleeting. It'll stay mild for at least a few more days, so the winter people will have to wait awhile. For now, the lake is at its quietest, most somber time of year. 

If you can't see the video image below, click on this link to watch this peaceful video. Or, if you see the image below, click on it to view. 

Vermont Meteorological Winter Starts, Ma Nature Gets The Memo

Snow showers start to obscure the view of Lake Champlain
from St. Albans, Vermont on Thursday, December 1
Gusty, cold winds and snow showers were appropriate
conditions for the start of meteorological winter. 

 Yesterday, December 1, was the start of meteorological winter. 

It's the period from December 1 through February 28 (or February 29 on leap years) that climatologists and others regard as winter. 

Astronomical winter is something completely different, of course. That starts on December 21.  

Meteorological winter is set up the way it is, as it makes it easier to compare and contrast past winters and past seasons. 

I noticed here in Vermont, Ma Nature got the memo regarding meteorological winter. Gone was the mild weather on November 30.  It was winter.  (Video at bottom of this post proves it)

On Thursday, bursts of snow came out of the sky, propelled by gusty northwest winds. It was kind of cold, too, with temperatures holding in the 30s.

It wasn't anything unusual for this time of year. Temperatures were actually near normal. But it felt like a winter day, that's for sure. 

Normal temperatures are continuing to plummet, so winter is settling in.  The normal mean temperature today is 33 degrees, at least in Burlington. By New Year's Eve, "normal" will be ten degrees colder than that. 

Actual weather seems to be aiming squarely toward winter, too. Oh, sure, today will be nice enough, and Saturday will be downright mild with a little rain - not snow - thrown into the mix. 

But it will get more and more wintry as we go through the upcoming week. Again, nothing that out of the ordinary for a Vermont December, but definitely winter. 

Long range forecasts also keep us mostly colder than average through the middle of December. 

As winter seemed to settle in yesterday, I, as I often do, took some video clips of a gusty, sometimes snowy December 1 in St. Albans, Vermont.

You can see snow showers move in from the north, gradually obscuring the view of the lake. Then gusts of wind and waves of snow flakes move through. 

You can click on this link to see the video. Or, if you see the image of the video below, click on that to view: 

Video: A Journey Through A Vermont Autumn

Fall foliage last month in Richmond, Vermont.

 I think a lot of you will agree with me that the autumn we had in Vermont this year was just spectacular.  

The weather was mostly wonderful and the fall foliage was stunning. 

I took some visual vignettes of the changing autumn landscape as the season progressed. Amateurish, yes, but still worth recording. 

It was a classic autumn. It started with the first cool breezes of the season in late September and early October. Then the colors intensified. We even had "snoliage" one day.  Then the leaves came down in another blizzard of color.  All while we enjoyed a lovely late October Indian Summer. 

The video is below.  Click on this link if you don't see the image of the video below. If you do see that image, click on it to watch on YouTube. 

The Last Leaves Of Autumn Always Feel Bittersweet

We managed to cling to autumn color in Vermont through almost
all of October.........

 Today, November 1, feels very much like stick seasons has arrived, right on schedule.  

"All the leaves are brown, and the sky is gray," is the most apt lyrics to a song as we look out the window today. 

The woods are bare, save for a few sad brown oak leaves, and the occasional bright yellow hanger on in some of the poplar groves. In northern Vermont, a dark low overcast, punctuated by a few periods of drizzle, add to the gloom.

At least it's unseasonably warm out. 

It'll be a long time before we hear that nice sound of wind blowing through the leafy forests on a breezy spring or summer day.

But by November 1, it was pretty much all gone, and 
stick season had begun.

We had those nice days to close out October. In the late afternoon warmth Sunday the last bastion of fall color lit up my yard.  Three immense poplar trees gleamed yellow in the Indian Summer sun. 

Then a breeze came up. It was nothing much, maybe 15 mph. That set off a blizzard of leaves from those three trees, and the bright colors of autumn were done. Finished. 

I decided to make a video of this bittersweet moment, to say goodbye to the leaves that graced our trees and forests since May. They'll be back, of course, next May, but for now, enjoy the grays of stick season and the winter that will follow. 

Here's the video: Click on this link to view if you don't see the image below, or if you see it, try clicking on it to view on YouTube. 

 

The Annual Autumn Vermont Garden Disassemble Is Like A Natural Theatrical Production Closing

The closing fall act of part of my gardens in St.  Albans, Vermont.
Time to tear it down for the season and plan for an even
bigger, better show next season.

 I'm always a little sad this time of year when a Vermont gardening season ends for the autumn.  Like the feeling you get at the end of the best play or movie you've ever seen. 

I'm mostly a flower gardener, so I picture the growing season as a theatrical arc. 

The opening act of the show are the early springtime crocuses and daffodils, and end with asters and surviving sunflowers. In between, a big cast of actors, I mean flowers, have their big moments.

My husband is a theatrical set designer. When a play runs its course, and it's time to close it down and disassemble everything, that process is known as "strike."

So as the air cools, what's going on in my Vermont gardens is "strike."  It's time to tear everything down, and lay the groundwork for the next big production, which will of course open next spring. 

Garden "strike" is a lot of work. You have to cut back the dead and dying perennials, heavily mulch the most sensitive plants, protect the evergreens from marauding winter deer and other animals. That's just the start. There's tons of other tasks to complete before the snow really flies. 

"Strike" is an all hands on deck activity in the theater, and in the garden. 

As much work as it is, and the regret we feel from the annual loss of garden color as winter sets in, there's a lot of positives. The annual autumn ritual of "strike" makes me feel in tune with the seasons, with nature, and its cycles. .

I have ADHD, which makes routines a challenge for me. Ma Nature forces me to pay attention to her routine. I'd better act on her directives or else. If I don't the next gardening theatrical production collapses. 

The chit chat during a theatrical strike often involves what went right, and what went wrong with the just-ended production.  The conversation also looks forward to what the crew will do for the next play or show. How to make the next performance even better than the last. 

It's the same way in a Vermont garden this time of year. It's time to assess, and plan what to do next year to make the show better, more spectacular, able to draw a crowd. 

During the garden strike, I tear out a fixture that once worked great, but no longer does. The plant is now ugly, or doesn't fit with the scheme anymore. It's often too late in the autumn to put something in the failure's place, so that goes into the plan for next year's show. 

The show will get bigger, so I'm adding beds. And throwing in some bulbs to expand the early spring cast next April and May. 

Some of the actors will have new roles. For instance, over time, some nice ferns have gotten lost in a sea of larger flowers where they are now. Time to transplant the decorative ferns into a shade garden, so they can have a starring role for a change. 

Theatrical strikes move quickly.  It's amazing how fast an entire set is taken down, disassembled, and stored away neatly for next time. Just like the theater, I'm under a deadline, too.

Everything has to get done before the snow flies and the ground freezes. Winter is part of the production, too.

Now that I'm getting my ideas together, winter will be a time of table reads, set designing, rehearsals and other preparations.  After all, it's only a matter of time before opening day arrives in the theater that is a big perennial garden. 

Plenty Of Winter Left, But Worst Might Be Over

Mild weather Monday left this snow barely hanging on to
the roof of my house in St. Albans, Vermont. Mild weather
 today should allow this to slide right off. 

We all know that in Vermont rough winter conditions like subzero cold and large snowstorms often last well into March.   

However, we usually see in February some subtle signs that the worst of it is over, that we might be turning a bit of a corner. 

True to form, we're seeing that now.  We get a bit of a break from the harshness of winter this week. 

For many valley locations, Monday and Tuesday saw temperatures a bit above freezing during the afternoons for a few hours. The same will be true today through Friday.  Part of Saturday will probably sneak above freezing too.

It's not exactly spring, but the relative warmth is a slight break for your fuel bill, and coaxes you outside, especially if the sun comes out.  We're starting to feel the warmth of the sun coming back just a bit now.

The sun won't be out all the time this week. Small little storms will throw handfuls of snow flakes or a few rain drops at us from time to time for the next few days. We'll just take what we can get. 

As always this spell of warmish weather won't last. We'll get slapped in the face soon enough with harsh winter weather. It is February after all. It's not always a user-friendly month.

By Sunday, we'll be back into the regime of nights near or below zero and highs struggling to make it into the teens. That'll last until about Tuesday, but it could be worse. It has been in the past. 

Despite the start of a waning winter, mid-February can really hit hard.  A tie for the lowest temperature on record - minus 30 - was set in Burlington on February 12, 1979.  Many of us remember the epic Valentine's day blizzard in 2007.

Still, by mid-month, normal daily temperatures start to creep upwards. As of today, the sun sets a full hour later than it did in December. My guess is that we've already experienced the  coldest weather of this winter back in January.  I can't at all guarantee this, but I'd say we won't see the lowest temperature in Burlington this winter, minus 14 again at least until next winter. 

To give you a sense of what's coming, quicker than you might think, the normal high temperature in Burlington is 30 degrees. One month from now the normal high is up to 38 degrees. Two months from today, that high should be around is 52 degrees. And just three little months from now, high temperatures should be around 67 degrees.

Lake Ice Turns Into A Cool Noisefest.

A frozen Lake Champlain can offer lots of entertaining sounds
 as water freezes, ice slabs move, expand or crack

 As frigid weather took hold in Vermont in mid-January, much of Lake Champlain quickly froze over. 

Even after the lake froze in any given area, shifting slabs of ice, new ice forming, wind pressure and other factors turn the lake into a noisy place. 

On Sunday, Lake Champlain in St. Albans, Vermont was a cacophony of pops, thunks, creaks, groans and gawd knows what.  Video of this is below. 

Some of the noises in my video sound like I had the sniffles, but that wasn't me. That was the ice making that sniffly sound. 

As usual, mobile device users might not be able to see the video displayed in this post, so click on this hyperlink to view

Otherwise, click on the image below. Click on the arrow and the YouTube icon for best viewing.