New Signs Of Autumn Amid Beautiful Vermont Weather

 Sunny days are of course common in Vermont in the summer. 

Rose Mallow blooms beneath a blue sky Wednesday evening
The whole day featured wall to wall sunshine in Vermont
and we're going to do it again today. 

But those sunny days almost always feature a few puffy clouds to decorate the sky. 

 In the heat of say, July, there's almost always enough moisture, enough updrafts to create those scattered clouds, even on days when the humidity is low. 

We had on Wednesday another sign that summer is waning fast in Vermont. It was the fact that, after the morning fog burned off in spots, the sky was blue and for most of us, completely cloudless.

If we're going to have a sign of autumn, it might as well take the form of a gorgeous day, right?

In the spring and the first half of autumn, you get these high pressure systems with dry air throughout pretty much all the layers of the atmosphere. The sinking air associated with these strong high pressure systems tend to squelch any clouds.

We awoke to crystal clear skies again this morning. Most if not all of today will be a rerun of Wednesday's great weather: Bluebird skies warm after a comfortable early morning and low, low humidity. 

This type of weather is pretty frequent in many Vermont Septembers, so it  won't hurt to hope this trend continues. 

We do have at least an interruption in this spectacular weather coming up.  Unfortunately, it's hitting on the weekend. 

A deep trough of low pressure is about to carve itself a spot over the Great Lakes, and swing a cold front through here sometime on Saturday. It looks like it create a period of rain on that day. 

It'll be another of many signs of autumn. The rain will almost certainly not come in the form of lines of thunderstorms like you get in mid-summer. Instead, it will be a period of perhaps soaking rain, not showery stuff. 

Following the cold front - and again this is a  classic autumn pattern - the core of the cold upper level low will pass overhead Sunday and Monday. That'll cause mostly cloudy skies, light showers and cool temperatures.  

Satellite view from Wednesday afternoon shows 
cloudless skies over Vermont, along with most of 
the rest of the Northeast. Just a few wisps of
wildfire smoke visible, but not much of it.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says there could even be a wet snowflake or two during this on the highest peaks of Adirondacks and possibly northern Green Mountains. 

This wouldn't amount to anything if it happens, and a couple wet snowflakes on mountain summits isn't weird for this time of year, but it's a sign of the season.

By the way, the date in which the record was set for the earliest snowflakes and for measurable autumn snow atop Mount Mansfield have passed. 

The earliest snow flurry on record up there was on August 30, 1976. The earliest measurable snow was the 0.3 inches that fell on top of the mountain on September 2, 1967.

If you're a glutton for punishment and want early snows down in the Champlain Valley, don't hold your breath. The records for early snows in Burlington, according to the National Weather Service are as follows:

Earliest trace was on September 23, 1950, and the earliest measurable was the 0.1 inches on September 30, 1992.

For those of you who prefer the bright sunny weather we're having this week, signs are sort of pointing toward another spell of gorgeous weather once we get into the middle of next week. Fingers crossed!

Eclipse Day Vermont Weather Still Unknown, But Possible Trend Emerging

The path of the eclipse over Vermont on April 8.
Pray hard for clear skies especially between
3:25 and 3:31 p.m. that day. 

April 8 Total Eclipse of the Sun eclipse day in Vermont is fast approaching, as it's only about a week and a half away or so.  

Some of the long range forecasts are now covering that day with supposed hints of what kind of weather will come that day.  Which gets people asking, will we actually see the sky on Eclipse Day, or will everything be hidden by clouds? 

I wouldn't get too excited about those April 8 weather forecasts just yet.   

Weather predictions more than, say, five days out are notoriously unreliable. You might start to pick up trends in the weather pattern 10 or 11 days out, but that doesn't tell you exactly what the weather will be on April 8.

As of today, then, my official Vermont forecast for April 8 is:

"Cloudy, unless it's partly cloudy or clear. Chance of rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, drizzle, freezing drizzle, sleet, hail, fog, showers, thunderstorms or none or some or all of the above. If the wind blows, it will come out of a direction. Or directions. Highs in the upper 20s to low 80s."

So yeah, not terribly helpful.  It just demonstrates we'll have to wait for better updates much closer to the event. It'll be awhile yet before we see a reliable April 8 forecast. 

FORECAST TRENDS

I did say I'm seeing trends in the long range forecast, take them with a Peterbilt sized grain of salt, but here goes, just for fun.

Most - but not all - of the  computer models have a dip in the jet stream somewhere near the Northeast, which implied unsettled weather and a high risk of clouds. 

What we don't know is whether said clouds will be overhead, or obscure where the sun is in the sky between 3:25 and 3:31 p.m April 8. That's when the total eclipse will be occurring. 

The computer models - to nobody's surprise - have not yet come up with a location of the dip in the jet stream. It could be overhead, or maybe off the coast, or over the Great Lakes. 

This is a random weather map I found on the Internet,
but this would be a best case scenario for 
Eclipse Day, April 8 in Vermont. 

We certainly don't know where any particular weather fronts will be at 3:30 p.m. on April 8. 

 It could be bad timing, with rain and showers going on at the time of the eclipse. Or we could be between weather fronts with mostly clear skies greeting us. 

The best case scenario that we should pray for is that a cold front comes through sometimes on April 7, followed by crisp, dry  high pressure from southern Canada. 

That high should either be overhead, or just a short distance to the north or west of Vermont at eclipse time.  If  that happens, it probably won't be particularly warm, but who cares? All we want is clear skies. Such a scenario would definitely keep clouds to a minimum.

High pressure just to our east would be fine, too, but that scenario gives us the risk of some high, thin clouds. You'd still see the eclipse, but maybe not through perfectly clear skies. 

There are several worst case scenarios. Probably the most depressing would be a nor'easter in or very near New England. Or a strong warm front approaching from our south, which would give us a thick overcast and possibly heavy precipitation. 

The odds are still stacked in favor of clouds. But we knew that already.  On average, there's a 70 percent chance of cloudy or mostly cloudy skies on any April 8 in Vermont.  

Cloudy Vermont seems to always miss out on the best celestial events, as clear skies seem to come only when nothing exciting is going on in the skies. Keep hoping the Weather Gods bless the Green Mountain State just this once.