Summer Switch: Cold Memorial Day Weekend To Yield To Heat; Rain So Far Underwhelming

 A little moisture from overnight light rain coaxing a peony
bud to bloom in my St. Albans, Vermont garden this morning.
Rainfall, though was underwhelming.  Hopes for more
rain later this week before likely heat takes hold. 

One way to unofficially mark the start of summer is always Memorial Day, and this one in New England, including Vermont has been anything but summer-like.  

We've already mentioned the high elevation snow in southern Vermont Saturday.  Sunday was chilly statewide under overcast skies and at least spotty light rain. 

Today, Memorial Day, won't be much better.  The morning will be especially foggy and drizzly and perhaps showery. Western Vermont and on into New York might brighten up a bit toward late afternoon and evening. 

Temperatures though, will be stuck in the 50s east, with maybe low 60s west. 

Another way to consider the start of summer is what is known as climatological summer.  That starts tomorrow, June 1, and goes through August 31.  It's a convenient way for meteorologists and climatologists to measure and compare overall weather season to season and year to year. 

The first week or two of climatological summer in Vermont is increasingly looking hot. Tomorrow through Thursday, temperatures will only be near normal for this time of year, which is vastly toastier than it was over the weekend. 

That means highs will poke into the 70s for much of the week.  Signs continue to point to a strengthening Bermuda High, which indicates hot, humid conditions could take over by the end of the week and possibly go on for several days after that. 

Rainfall with this nippy Memorial Day weekend has so far been underwhelming at best in the northwestern half of Vermont. As of early this morning, Burlington had just 0.16 inches of rain and Montpelier a little over a quarter of an inch.  Although today will be rather cloudy and gloomy and chilly, only perhaps a tenth of an inch of additional rain will come through the Champlain Valley. 

At least southeastern Vermont has gotten some decent precipitation. Springfield has gotten more than an inch of rain so far this weekend. 

The only real hope for a bit more drought relief might come Wednesday night into Friday.  A warm front, marking the eventual start of the hot, humid weather, is forecast to slowly advance into Vermont during that time frame. 

If it works out as hoped, we'd get quite a few showers.  We wouldn't get an overwhelming amount of rain, but we'll take anything.  

Once that Bermuda High fully takes over by next weekend, the rain will shut off again, aside from the usual widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains which is typical during hot weather in New England. 

The latest long range forecasts for New England heading all the way toward the middle of the month suggest warmer than average temperatures and less rain than normal. 

Wild Differences In Vermont Weather Saturday; Big Changes Coming Statewide

There's that achingly tired old saying that if you don't like the weather in Vermont, wait five minutes, it'll change. 

Saturday in St. Albans, Vermont, some irises enjoy some
warm evening sun.....

On Saturday, the phrase should have been, "If you don't like the weather in Vermont, drive a short distance, it will change." 

There was indeed quite a contrast in weather across the Green Mountain State. Here where I am in the northwestern corner of the state, it was an absolutely lovely late spring Saturday. 

Skies were blue, there was a pleasant breeze, and temperatures got into the upper 60s, just a wee bit cooler than normal for this time of year. 

Drive to southern Vermont, go up in elevation far enough and you hit snow.  Atop Stratton Mountain, it snowed most of the day.  Snowflakes mixed with rain Saturday morning at elevations as low as 2,500 feet.

Many towns in southern Vermont never made it out of the 40s for highs Saturday afternoon.

The reasons behind Saturday's contrast were pretty unusual. 

very once in awhile, you'll have temperatures and weather differences in Vermont this extreme if there's a sharp warm, cold or stationary front somewhere in the state. 

This usually happens in the colder half of the year, when a weather front bisecting the state would give winter conditions to, say St. Albans, while it's 60 degrees or more in, say Bennington.

...while atop Stratton Mountain in southern Vermont, a nice
winter sunset was underway on (checks notes) May 29.
This is a screen shot from the Stratton Mountain web cam

What made Saturday's contrast in Vermont so odd was there were no weather fronts. The strong sun, near its peak intensity this time of year, made all the difference. Making Saturday quite a unique weather day in Vermont.  

In the far north of Vermont, strong, cool high pressure up in Quebec fed very dry air into those parts of the state. That meant plenty of sunshine to heat the atmosphere. 

 The air was also super dry for May. Dew points, a measure of how wet the air is, were only in the upper teens in far northwestern  Vermont.  That's exceptionally low for this time of year. 

he sun can heat dry air much more efficiently that humid air, so temperatures went up nicely in the afternoon. 

In the south, the state was locked under thick clouds.  That cool air from Canada made it into all of New England, but wet air from an upper level storm and a particularly cool pocket of air aloft kept things frigid. The thick clouds blocked the sun, so it stayed nippy.  

Clouds made all the difference in Saturday's weather
The northwestern tip of Vermont was in the sunshine,
will thick clouds socked in the south. 

The Vermont contrasts will even out today and tomorrow.  The northwest will still be a little warmer than the south today, as the day up north is starting with some sun. But that upper level low is re-orienting itself, and will send clouds and rain statewide later today and tonight. 

Everybody will be cool today, with highs in the 50s, with a few low 60s far northwest. 

The cool pool of air aloft is slowly modifying, so I don't expect any more snow. Maybe an outside chance of flakes at summit level, but that's it.  

It'll be chilly tomorrow, too, under lingering clouds and showers. 

More than an inch of beneficial rains are coming to the southeastern half of the state.  The northwest is in desperate need of rain, but those areas won't bet much.  Maybe a third of an inch or even less, especially north and west of a Burlington to Jay Peak line. 

There are signs that we are in for another type of big contrast:  The overall weather statewide might go from a March-like nip to full on summer. 

The ever famous summer feature, the Bermuda High off the East Coast looks like it really wants to strengthen and poke firmly west into the eastern United States.

If forecast holds, we could go from snow in the southern Green Mountains yesterday to oppressive heat and humidity by next weekend.  We'll keep an eye on that. 

 

Frigid Vermont Weekend, But Some Parts Get Drought Relief. Snow, Too!

Traffic cam from relatively high elevation Searsburg in 
southern Vermont fortunately shows rain, not snow, but
it's going to be a remarkably chilly, damp weekend 
and Memorial Day, especially in the southern 
half of the state

UPDATE:

While it's nice and sunny this morning way up where I am in St. Albans, Vermont, I can confirm snow HAS fallen on parts of Vermont. 

It was nearing 60 degrees by mid morning in St. Albans. It's actually turning into a nicer, warmer day than first though in the northwest corner of the state.

But web cam images from the summit of Stratton Mountain, in southern Vermont, showed snow falling this morning and a slushy accumulation on the ground. 

Mid-mountain cams showed a slushy coating on the ground at Stratton at 2,275 feet of elevation. Just before 11 a.m., it was snowing pretty hard and it looked like there was at least a couple inches of snow on the ground at the Stratton summit, at 3,875 feet above sea level

Video by @VermonsterWx  on Twitter showed snow flakes mixing with the raindrops this morning at his high elevation home not far from Readsboro.

Awfully late for snow in Vermont even at high elevations, but not unprecedented. 

On May 25-26 2013, a whopping two feet of snow piled up on Whiteface Mountain, New York and Jay Peak, Vermont got 18 inches. Elevations of just 900 to 1,800 feet above sea level got two to six inches of snow in that episode.

Nothing nearly like that is in store with this episode. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Boy, the Vermont forecast for the rest of the weekend just keeps going downhill, especially those who like warm sunshine. 

On the bright side, some parts of the state are now in for some drought relief. 

Screen grab from live video atop Stratton Mountain, Vermont
shows a full-blown snowstorm in progress shortly 
before 11 a.m. today. 

A few days ago, the outlook for this weekend was lots of sunshine and cool temperatures. Good for the mood, but the then-anticipated super dry air would make the drought worse and the forest fire danger rise. 

Now, nearly stalled storms in the upper atmosphere and near the surface are bringing clouds, very cold weather for this time of year and rain to at least parts of Vermont and surrounding areas.

The veil of high clouds over northern Vermont prompted a spectacular sunset last evening, but that's basically it for brightness for the rest of the weekend. 

In northern Vermont, there actually be an OK amount of sun today, and it will be a really a nice enogh day. 

With the sun peaking through, we'll manage highs north of Route 2 in the low 60s.  That's still cool for this time of year, but still ten degrees warmer than yesterday and far better than what's going on in southern Vermont. 

There, clouds will hang pretty tough today.  In some mid and high elevation along and south of Route 4, temperatures didn't make it past the upper 40s yesterday afternoon and won't crack 50 degrees until Monday at the earliest.

That's almost as bad for sensitive garden plants as frost. Tomatoes, cucumbers and the like crave sunshine, warmth and humidity, so this weather will stunt things for awhile. On the bright side, earlier forecasts of frosty mornings this weekend are now off the table.  

Rain will move south to north across Vermont on Sunday, with the day being a miserable washout in the south. 

The rain, or the risk of it, anyway, will continue Sunday night and well into Monday.  It looks like southern and eastern Vermont will get a nice, slow batch of soaking rain, maybe up to an inch or more of it in some spots 

This slow, gradual rain is better for drought busting that harsh, quick downpours, which tend to run off and not soak into the ground. 

It seems like northwestern Vermont, where I live, might well be screwed out of this needed rain once again. There's still a lot of questions as to how much rain will make it into the northern Champlain Valley, but early indications are not much.  We could get less than a tenth of an inch of rain, which isn't really helpful. 

There's still some hope some of the good rains will push a little further northwest. Let's hope so 

Earlier forecasts had said Monday would turn brighter and warmer, but no. Turns out we'll still be stuck under thick clouds and unseasonably cold daytime readings. Highs will be in the 50s Monday instead of the normal low to mid 70s we get this time of  year. 

The slow moving storminess might even delay the expected real warmup that was to have begun in earnest on Tuesday.  Still, the end of the week does look much more seasonable.  Shower chances ramp up late in the week, too, giving a little hope for needed rain in northwestern Vermont, and perhaps a little more drought-busting rain to the southern part of the Green Mountain State. 

Clouds Save Some From Frost, But Raw, Cold Memorial Day New England Weekend Looms

We covered up some of the more tender potted flowers and
plants due to a forecasted late season frost here in St. Albans,
Vermont. A few high clouds came to the rescue overnight,
preventing temperatures from getting cold enough for a frost.

It was a battle last night between cold, dry Canadian air draining into Vermont and the rest of northern New England versus high clouds coming in from the west.

If the cold, dry air won out, there would have been widespread frosts and freezing temperatures. But for the most part, the high clouds won out.  

There were still quite a few areas of frosts and freezes last night, especially the further north and east you went. Those areas were the last to see the clouds, so they had more time to "bask" in the cold, dry "gift"from Canada. 

Some of the coldest readings I saw were 27 degrees in Island Pond, 28 in Gallup Mills and 30 degrees in Eden.

It stayed around 38 or 39 degrees at my  house in St. Albans, Vermont. We covered up our most tender plants, but it turned out to be unnecessary. No regrets, though. Better safe than sorry. 

Memorial Day weekend is traditionally the unofficial start of summer. We've already had quite a bit of summer like weather this spring.  But for this weekend, not so much. 

It will be more of a wearing fleece, drinking hot chocolate and staying indoors watching Netflix type thing than a bikini and beer beach party weekend, I'm afraid. That's especially true the further south and east you go. 

Today will be by all measures cold for this time of year. The clouds that streamed in early this morning will continue to thicken up. That'll keep temperatures down in the 50s for highs. Rain will start to spread northward through the day and into the evening, but not make it all the way through Vermont

Areas along Route 2 and north should stay dry, and spots between Route 2 and Route 4 won't get all that much rain tonight.  Areas south of Route 4 should get a decent, soaking, needed, but cold rain this afternoon and tonight. 

The summits in the southern Green Mountains and southern Adirondacks could see some wet snow tonight. There, I said it. Snow. At least it won't be widespread.  At least the clouds tonight will protect us from another frost. 

Saturday isn't looking much better. In northern Vermont, some sunshine will return.  We're just over three weeks away from the summer solstice, so the sun is super strong. That'll turn the North into a relative banana belt, with highs reaching at least the low 60s. 

That's pretty cool for this time of year, but not totally unreasonable. 

In southern Vermont, the clouds will hang on longer, so highs will stay in the raw 50s.  In higher elevation towns way down in the south, places like Woodbury and Searsburg, high temperatures will only make it into the mid and upper 40s.  Welcome to, um, November?

Saturday night, we'll have to look out for scattered frost again, especially north where there will be fewer clouds

Earlier forecasts called for a dry second half of the weekend, but that's being called into question now.  A storm is now expected to come closer to the New England coast than expected. That will throw rain back inland, especially Sunday night. 

It remains to be seen how far north and west the rain gets, but it looks like at least eastern and southern Vermont will get some precipitation.  It could work further northwest than that, too. We'll see.

We'll get back into summer next week. It will warm into the 70s early in the week but the air will stay dry.  By the end of the week, it's beginning to look like warm, humid air will settle in. You know the drill, highs around 80, air muggy enough to make you sweat if you do any activity outside. 

The weather forecast for this weekend isn't great, obviously, but as always, I can point out that it's been worse. 

On May 31 1961, the temperature in Burlington plunged to 25 degrees, tying the record at the time for the lowest reading on record. (You'd expect the coldest weather at the beginning of the month.)

Needless to say, crops and gardens were wiped out that year in interior New England. We dodged that bullet this year, for sure. 

There was also a widespread frost and freeze across most of Vermont on June 3, 1986 - awfully late in the year.  And in May, 1992, a three-day heat wave with temperatures around 90 degrees from May 21-23 prompted pretty much everybody to put their tomatoes in their gardens.

By May 25 that year, the entire state experienced a hard freeze.

As you can see, disappointing weather can hit very late in the spring here in Vermont. I guess that's why we're so hardy. 

Vermont Storms Caused Scattered Damage; New Damage Coming From Frost?

A big, tall thunderstorm looms over Vermont Wednesday,
as viewed from Colchester.  Severe, damaging storms
struck parts of central and Northeast Vermont.

 The thunderstorms and pockets of severe weather pretty much worked out as expected on Wednesday. 

Most of us got either a mild thunderstorm or in a few cases, got nothing at all. 

It seems like the main, worst thunderstorm trekked from Addison County to the Northeast Kingdom near Danville and Peacham in the afternoon and early evening.

Basically, it was a bowing segment that was the culprit, and this type of storm often leads to damage.  

A bowing segment is a relatively short line of storms, shaped like a backwards "C".  The apex of that "C" s where the strongest winds are.  Yesterday, that was on a line from around Middlebury to Danville.

The whole Northeast shared in the severe weather. And the Central Great Plains were busy. Overall, there were 28 reports of tornadoes yesterday, mostly in Kansas, Nebraska and Texas. There were a whopping 381 wind damage reports, mostly in the Northeast, including here in Vermont. 

Trees were down in many parts of Middlebury, then a few more reports of tree damage around Waitsfield. This was followed by quite a few power outages in and around Barre. Then a trail of new scattered damage was reported along Route 2 from Marshfield to Danville.  

Several thousand homes and businesses also lost power along this path. 

Only a few lucky people got some decent rains, which we still need. Those in the path of the severe thunderstorm got more than a half inch of rain. Most of the rest of us got a tenth of an inch of rain or less.

Northern areas of Vermont look to get almost no rain for the next week, unless some storminess to our south pulls some surprises.  

CHILLY: FROSTY AND SNOWY?

Up next, though, we're temporarily going back in time to April. That means the risk of a late season frost, a cold rain in southern Vermont and yes, the dirty four-letter word is back: Maybe some snow in the highest elevations. 

After a few morning sprinkles, it will clear up rapidly today, and be breezy and cool.  That sets us up for the frost risk tonight. 

It'll be a race between cold air coming in from the north and high clouds coming in from the southwest. If the clouds come in more quickly than expected, most of us, except those in the Northeast Kingdom, will escape the frost. If the clouds stay away, many more of us will worry about a frost and freeze.

I'd play it safe tonight anywhere in Vermont except right near Lake Champlain.  Cover those tender annuals you just planted, or if possible, bring them indoors.  If you already planted your tomatoes outside, well it sucks for you. Cover those up, too, and hope for the best. 

Tomorrow, Friday, will be remarkably raw for the end of May.  Highs everywhere will only make it into the 50s.  Northern areas might be warmest as they could see a little sun.  Southern areas of Vermont will cloud right up and temperatures will stay in the low 50s. Some mid and high elevations there won't even make it out of the 40s for highs. Brrrr!

There's a lot of questions about how far north the rain will get Friday and Friday night.  Most forecasts keep the far north dry, but even there, there's a slight chance of sprinkles or light rain.  South of Route 4, there could be a good half inch of rain, which would be good for them. 

Bad for them will be the mountains. There could be some snow at least on the mountain peaks Friday night.

Saturday looks chilly,  too, with southern Vermont being the coolest.   Some clearing is expected to break out Saturday afternoon in the north, and the strong May sun would "heat" those areas into the low 60s, which is still quite chilly for this time of  year. Southern areas might stay in the 50s.

We'll also have to watch for scattered night time frost again in the north, too.

Don't worry. This throwback to early spring won't last forever.   A warming trend will start Sunday and continue well into next week.  Long range forecasts  call for above normal temperatures through the first 10 days or so of June 

Severe Storms Will Be Scattered Around Vermont This Afternoon

 Forecasters are still calling for scattered severe thunderstorms across Vermont this afternoon and early evening, but they will really be hit and miss. 

Severe thunderstorms are a threat today in big portions
of the nation, especially in areas shaded in yellow,
orange and red. As you can see, we here in Vermont
are in that risk zone. 

Many, but not all the ingredients are there to create the severe storm potential, so it will be interesting to see how many develop. 

I'm almost 100% sure there will be some storms here and there with damaging winds and possibly hail, but how widespread those storms will be is an open question.

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington notes this morning in their forecast discussion, there are some mixed signals on this potential burst of strong thunderstorms.  

By early afternoon, there will be plenty of very warm, humid air in place, which is the needed fuel for the storms. Upper level winds are zipping along fast enough to be brought to the surface by any intense storms to bring damaging winds to the surface.

As noted yesterday, a little line of a disturbance called a pre-frontal trough is forecast to move through Vermont this afternoon, which would be the focus of most of the rough weather. You need a convergence, which is basically wind flow squeezing together to help create updrafts, to produce the necessary lift to create powerful, towering thunderstorms. 

The NWS says the convergence along this pre-frontal trough appears like it might be meh.   If that's the case, it could be hard to get a lot of severe storms going, but you'd still get some.  After all, there will be some convergence with this disturbance. 

Also, you'll want temperatures to fall pretty fast the higher in elevation you go to help set up those violent updrafts that produce severe storms.  That temperature profile, called lapse rate, is decent, but not spectacular today, so that helps make the intensity of today's potential weather difficult to assess as of early this morning. 

This forecast isn't cast in stone by the way. This convergence and temperature profile we should have over Vermont by this afternoon might well prove to be more than enough to power a fair number of intense thunderstorms.  We just have to wait to see how this plays out this afternoon.

Though the strongest thunderstorms today could occur anywhere in the state, best early guesses are the best chances might be south of roughly a Burlington to St. Johnsbury line. 

There is a bit of spin in the atmosphere as well, so there's still a slight chance that some storms could become supercells.  Those are storms that have a rotating and persistent updraft. They tend to be more severe than other strong storms.

Supercells sometimes - but not always - produce tornadoes.  There's a very very low chance of a brief spin up today in or near Vermont, but there's no guarantee on that. 

So, the bottom line: Keep an eye to the sky, and if you see dark clouds approaching, head inside.  Lightning from even a non-severe storm is dangerous, after all. 

Also, have a weather radio or some other reliable way today of receiving severe thunderstorm warnings. If you do get such a warning, get yourself into a really sturdy building and keep away from the windows until the storms pass.

In addition, storm reports help the National Weather Service improve on future forecasts.  If you see storm damage today, give the National Weather Service in South Burlington a heads up to what you see, but only when it is safe to do so.

A few spots might get a decent heavy, needed downpour out of today's expected storms, but overall, rainfall will be lackluster. Which is too bad. We need an area-wide soaker and we won't be getting that this trip. 

Us Vermonters are not the only ones under the gun for potential severe storms today.  Much of the Northeast is under the same conditions we are, so there will be widespread, if scattered reports of some storm damage today from Virginia to Maine. 

There's an even greater risk of damaging storms and potential tornadoes today out in Nebraska and Kansas.  I'm sure storm chasers are converging there this morning as there could be several tornadoes later today in that neck of the woods.  

Severe Storm Threat Tomorrow in Vermont/Northeast

Areas of the nation shaded in yellow are under a risk
of severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The vast areas '
under the risk include Vermont, where damaging
straight line winds are the biggest threat.

Vermont,and many surrounding areas tomorrow are under the first real severe thunderstorm threat since March.  

A squirt of very warm, humid air and an approaching cold front will be the combination that could touch off the storms here, and in much of the rest of New England, New York, Pennsylvania and parts of Ohio.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has this area in its slight risk category for severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. That's level two of a five point risk scale. 

 Slight risk generally means there would be scattered reports of damaging wind or hail from the storms, with the possibility one or two intense storms thrown in there. 

As is almost always the case when our region is under any kind of storm threat, damaging straight line winds are the principal threat from Wednesday's potential storms. 

However, somewhat similar to back in March, when a tornado did touch down in Middlebury, there is an ever so slight chance that one or two storms could produce a brief twister.  I want to emphasis that a repeat of March is NOT likely, and chances of any kind of tornado anywhere in or near Vermont are very,  very  low. 

Still, as it stands now, there might be just enough spin the atmosphere to create a brief tornado in eastern New York and western New England,  Vermont included.  That would be true if any intense storms form ahead of a main line of storms that will be coming through ahead of a cold front.

Large, damaging hail could also come with the worst storms on Wednesday, but again, the biggest threat is straight-line winds. 

The storm forecast will surely be adjusted between now and tomorrow, so the areas forecast to be under threat from any kind of severe weather will shift from current forecasts. I'll of course have an update on this situation tomorrow morning. 

As the forecast stands now, you'll notice it getting warmer and by afternoon, somewhat more humid today as southwest winds begin to pump that summery air our way. 

It'll continue to get rather stuffy tonight. By tomorrow, humid air will be in place. The key to whether and how many severe storms we get Wednesday depends upon sunshine. If it's relatively sunny in the morning and early afternoon, that'll pump temperatures well into the 80s. 

Straight line winds from a severe thunderstorm caused this
damage in St. Albans, Vermont on July 30, 2019.
There could be instances of similar damage in Vermont
tomorrow if current forecasts hold. 

That warmth will help destabilize the atmosphere and prime it for severe storms. 

Very often when there's a severe weather threat around here,  a subtle line of extra instability, known as a pre-frontal trough, will come in from the west ahead of a cold front.  

That is expected to happen sometime tomorrow afternoon, and that will be the focus for most of the severe storms, if they occur. 

If current forecast holds, the severe storm threat will last into the evening, especially in eastern Vermont, which would be the last area in the Green Mountain State to see that line of boisterous storms. 

More storms will probably bubble up along the main cold front early tomorrow night, but few, if any will be severe. 

Under this slight risk, most of us won't see severe, damaging storms. But many of us will experience some gusty winds and lightning, so you'll want to be able to get quickly indoors if you see dark clouds approaching. 

Unfortunately, these storms don't look like big rainmakers. The more intense storms will have heavy downpours, but they won't last long.  Some areas that manage to avoid most of the storms will get almost no rain.

Too bad, we really need it. 

It'll get unseasonably cold behind this front. It means business.  It's possible there will be scattered areas of frost again Thursday night, especially in the Northeast Kingdom.

A storm coming by to our south will largely miss us Friday.  It will probably throw some clouds our way, but little or no rain. Friday's clouds, combined with cold north winds, will prevent many parts of Vermont from even getting out of the 50s for highs on Friday. 

Friday's system will be out in the Great Plains Wednesday, creating a severe weather risk greater than our own in and around Nebraska.  It'll produce more severe weather and some tornadoes in an area centered around Missouri on Thursday. By the time this storm gets to the East Coast, it could produce another round of severe storms in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast, but nothing anywhere near us. 

That's awfully chilly for this time of year but by no means totally out of whack for this time of year

The Memorial Day weekend looks pretty dry and sunny, with a slow warming trend for us here in northern New England. 

Vermont: Follow The Bouncing Temperatures; Air And Water

Irises in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens seemed to enjoy
the sunshine and change to cooler temperatures last evening

 That was quite a change in the air yesterday, wasn't it?

After a few days of record and near record heat, Sunday dawned warm and humid and summerlike.

That didn't last, did it? 

The cold front that blew through in the morning and afternoon was accompanied by some strong-ish gusts, falling temperatures, but sadly, little rain. Most of us received a tenth of an inch or less, so the dry, dry year we've been enduring continues. 

It wasn't just the air temperature that fell dramatically. So did the water temperature on Lake Champlain. 

The summery warmth of the past few days was accompanied by light winds.  That lack of wind kept water from deeper in the lake from rising to the surface through wave action.  The heat and the strong May sun had water temperatures in Lake Champlain go all the way into the 60s, which is way warm for this time of year. 

The sudden gusts of north winds Sunday - gusting to 40 mph over the lake - created what the National Weather Service in South Burlington is calling a very impressive upwelling event on Lake Champlain. 

What that means is those strong wind gusts displaced water which allowed cooler water down below to come up to the lake's surface. The lake water temperature was 66 degrees at 11:30 a.m. Sunday on the lake at Burlington moments before the cold front arrived.

By 11:30 p.m. last night, the water temperature was down to 48 degrees.

Air temperatures plummeted last night as well, and frost was reported this morning in a few places well away from Lake Champlain. The lowest temperatures I saw so far this morning were in the notorious cold spots. Island Pond was 30 degrees and Saranac Lake, New York was down to 28 degrees. The Banana Belt Champlain Valley was in the low 40s

This temperatures aren't all that unusual for this time of year, but it's been so summery lately it seems odd. 

Temperatures will continue to bounce all over the place the rest of this week.

Today is going to be late spring perfection with plenty of sun and temperatures rebounding really, really fast to the low 70s.

Readings will trend upward again Tuesday, reaching 80 degrees or so. By Wednesday it's back to summer, with temperatures up in the 80s with a fair amount of humidity around. 

Then another cold front comes in, dropping temperatures late week to levels probably even cooler than last night. 

Frost could be a worry again Thursday night.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday might not get past 60 degrees in many areas. 

Then it warms up again over the weekend. Up and down, up and down.

The only consistency is the lack of rain.  While the midweek cold front will cause quite a drop in temperature, rainfall with the front looks like it will be unimpressive. I suppose a few places that get bullseyed by a decent thunderstorm could get a quarter inch of rain or more, but otherwise, this will be another relatively dry cold front. 

The drought goes on. 

The dry conditions are probably helping make the temperatures a little more extreme, both on the warm and cold side. If the soil is wet, it leaches moisture into the air, and that moisture tends to prevent hots from getting too hot and colds from getting too cold. 

The lack of soil moisture now is probably allowing sunshine to boost afternoon temperatures to slightly higher levels than they otherwise would be.  The same issue is helping to create cooler nights than we'd otherwise have, as long as the night in question is clear and calm,  like it was last night. 

This phenomenon is why deserts tend to get so hot in the afternoon and still manage to get chilly at night.  We're not exactly a desert here in the Green Mountain State, but droughts are not only bad for crops, they can make us uncomfortably hot or cold, too.

A Decade Since Joplin, MO Tornado. It Still Leaves An Impression

Ten years ago this weekend, one of the deadliest and THE
most costly tornado in United States history 
struck Joplin, Missouri. 

 For weather geeks like me, particular extreme, if distant,  weather events leave a lasting impression and one that still haunts me is the huge Joplin, Missouri tornado of 2011.  

Yesterday, May 22 was the 10th anniversary of that monster storm - an EF-5 tornado that pretty much leveled most of the southern third of Joplin.  

The storm killed at least 158 people, making it the nation's seventh deadliest tornado on record.   The tornado injured more than 1,000 people and destroyed 7,000 buildings. 

Damage amounted to more than $3 billion dollars, making this the costliest tornado in U.S history. 

The tornado did all this in just the 38 minutes it was on the ground, from 5:34 to 6:12 .p.m. local time.  The twister was as strong as one can get with winds of over 200 mph. The damage was amplified even further because the tornado's forward motion was only 20 mph. That's slow for a tornado and kept the winds grinding over the same spots far longer than usual for a tornado.

The videos of the tornado are still haunting.  As it approached Joplin, the tornado was a mile wide and wrapped in rain.  It was so big it didn't look like a tornado, just a wall of black smashing into town. Once it passed, everything was scattered, flattened. 

The destruction was so extreme that the first people arriving into Joplin moments after the tornado departed were overwhelmed and helpless. The Weather Channel's Mike Bettes, who had been chasing the tornado, arrived in Joplin on the storm's heels. He understandably  broke down and wept on air at what he saw.

The scene in the hours after the tornado was beyond unreal. People swarmed over the wreckage looking for injured under the glow of a setting sun, dark, lightning streaked clouds overhead and continued pelting rain. 

Joplin recovered strongly after the tornado.  Some communities devastated by tornadoes never fully recover and lose population.  Now, more people live in Joplin than before the tornado. The city has a population of about 51,000.

Since Joplin, the National Weather Service and emergency managers are still struggling with making warnings effective an accurate.

The tornado warnings for Joplin that day were confusing. Initially, a tornado warning was issued for a separate storm north of the city.  When the new tornado that would wreck Joplin formed, people wrongly assumed the warning was for the twister that would miss Joplin to the north. 

As the Washington Post reports, some tornadoes still go unwarned.  One twister struck southwest of Dodge City, Kansas earlier this year and residents never received a warning.  Another tornado around Memphis clearly showed its signature on radar. People following the storm on Twitter noticed the tornado and contacted the local National Weather Service, and they were still late on warning the storm.

Lead times between the time a warning is issued and the time tornadoes struck has actually declined since the Joplin tornado, says Mike Smith in a Washington Post opinion piece.

In part because of the Joplin tornado, the National Weather Service has changed the language in its severe weather warnings.  There was concern that the language used in tornado warnings like the one issued 17 minutes before the Joplin tornado was confusing.

 Now tornado warnings, and warnings for other hazards like hurricanes and big flash floods - especially for particularly dangerous ones headed for populated areas, - use language like "You are in a life-threatening situation," and "Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter."

Though we've seen devastating tornadoes since, the United States has so far not seen anything as extreme as Joplin since that storm hit a decade ago.  We've been exceedingly lucky with these strongest tornadoes. 

There has not been an EF-5 in the United States since a deadly one in Newcastle and Moore, Oklahoma in 2013.

Which is good. We do not need any more Joplin-scale tornado disasters.  

Thank goodness, we'll never see a tornado of the scale of the Joplin disaster in Vermont.Still, we're prone to other extreme weather disasters. We had our own mega-disaster just three months after the Joplin tornado when the huge floods of Tropical Storm Irene ripped parts of Vermont apart. 

You never know where the next mega-disaster will hit. Just keep praying it's not you.

like the Great Floods of 192

August In May: 90 Degree Vermont Heat, Subtropical Storm, Western Wildfires

Subtropical Storm Ana spinning northeast of Bermuda
this morning. It's the seventh year in a row with a 
pre-season tropical system in the Atlantic

 Typically in August, we get bouts of near 90 degree heat here in Vermont.  August is also the time of year we keep a close eye on the tropics for potential tropical storms and hurricanes. Late summer is also when wildfires really start to blossom out West.  

All this is happening now, which is really weird for this time of year. Welcome to August in May. 

Here in Vermont, Burlington reached 90 degrees Friday for the second day in a row. It wasn't quite a record high, but still impressive for this time of year. 

Montpelier did manage a record high for the date on Friday. It got up to 89 degrees, besting the old record of 86 degrees set in 1977.

It'll be quite warm again today, but not quite as toasty as the past two days.  There's increased cloud cover, so that will hold temperatures down a bit.  

Still, most of us should make it into the 80s this afternoon. There will be a few hit and miss showers and rumbles of thunder today, but most of us will stay dry. 

A pretty strong cold front tomorrow will flush out the hot air and return us to seasonable conditions for a couple days anyway. A small percentage of Sunday's storms might reach severe limits with gusty winds, especially in southern and eastern Vermont, and over in New Hampshire, Maine and southern New England. 

More heat might briefly return to Vermont midweek.

But our August in May theme goes on elsewhere. The official tropical storm and hurricane season doesn't begin until June 1, but there's already a subtropical storm out there. 

Subtropical Storm Ana formed overnight northeast of Bermuda.  It's considered subtropical because it has characteristics of both a tropical storm and a regular old storm. Still, a subtropical storm is unusual in May.

Less unusual than in the past, though.  Every once in while, a tropical or subtropical storm would form in the Atlantic, but it was rare.  But with Ana forming overnight, this is now the seventh consecutive year a tropical or subtropical storm has formed in May over the Atlantic.

This particular subtropical storm is no real threat.  It won't strengthen much beyond its current 45 mph top winds, and should dissipate in the next couple of days. 

Another system that threatened to form into another tropical storm overnight in the Gulf of Mexico failed to get its act together. Still, this wannabe system will spread unwanted, heavy downpours into flooded eastern Texas.

Flooding sure isn't the problem out West.  As of earlier this month, 18 square miles of California had already burned so far this year.  That's ahead of the pace of last year, which turned out to be the worst wildfire season in that state's history. 

Multiple wildfires have already broken out in Arizona, well before the peak of their usual fire season. 

All of this strange May weather I described above might be the main feature, and not bugs of the rest of the summer and early fall. 

Long range forecasts are often unreliable but for what it's worth, the Climate Prediction Center forecasts a hotter than normal summer for most of the United States, including here in Vermont and the rest of New England. 

Also, most experts expect a busier than normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, though it won't be as extreme and hectic as the record season last year.

And, with drought widespread across the western third of the United States, the wildfire season out there is sure to be a humdinger, perhaps on par with last year's devastating season. 

The month of May doesn't always hold clues as to what the rest of the summer will bring, but warning signs do seem to be flashing toward a very interesting summer in the weather department. 

Record Heat In Vermont Yesterday As May Hot Spells Become More Common

Record heat and very dry air helped these late season 
daffodils to finally give up the ghost in the past couple of
days in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens. Don't worry,
pretty much everything else is thriving, with a little
help from irrigation

The temperature soared, somewhat unexpectedly, all the way up to 92 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on Thursday breaking the high temperature record for the date of 91, set in 1975.

It was also the first 90 degree reading of the season, definitely hitting earlier than average.  There's a decent shot Burlington could hit 90 degrees again today. 

Temperatures in this hot zone were once quite rare in May.   There was some 90-degree May heat in 1911, and a spate of more days like that in 1975, 1977 and 1979.

There were a couple more May days in the 90s in the 1980s and 1990s. But lately, such weather has gotten a lot more common in May. 

Including yesterday, it's been in the 90s during May in Burlington six times just since 2010.  In 2017, we tied the record for the hottest May temperature of 93 degrees. Then, just last year, that monthly record in Burlington was broken with a high of 95 degrees. 

Could be yet another sign of climate change, huh?

Here in New England, most hot spells are accompanied by relatively high humidity, making the heat seem more unbearable. 

Yesterday's heat was bone dry.  The relative humidity was in the upper teens to low 20s, basically making the day feel like springtime in Phoenix.  Because of the dry air, I was able to work aggressively outdoors in the gardens without wilting - as long as I stayed in the shade. Too bad it was my garden plants wilting in the bone dry heat. 

Needless to say, the heat and arid air made the dry woodlands and fields of Vermont even more parched.  The forest fire danger was already high when we started yesterday, so it's probably even worse now. 

Today's very warm conditions will also be accompanied by low humidity. Like yesterday, there just might be one or two isolated thunderstorms in the mountains. Yeah, just what we need. Dry lightning to risk new fire starts.

There's a somewhat better chance of hit and miss showers or storms Saturday afternoon, but they won't amount to much. Temperatures will also be slightly lower, and humidity will creep up just a bit. 

A strong cold front is forecast to push through on Sunday, accompanied by a band of showers and storms. Again, these won't produce blockbuster amounts of needed rain. But we'll take anything we can get. 

Depending on the timing of the cold front and how much sunshine we can get before it passes through, there's a chance a few storms could be locally severe, with strong winds the main risk. At this point, the chances of severe weather is fairly low. 

The heat will get squashed to the south, at least temporarily, as we in Vermont have a delightful day on Monday, with much cooler temperatures, sunshine and low humidity. 

The Southeast will then suffer under a heat wave well into next week as that ridge of hot high pressure holds firm in that neck of the woods. 

The hot weather will make another run at us next Tuesday and Wednesday, though it's unclear how hot it will get. Still, 80s are a good bet. Another sharp cold front will come through Wednesday or Thursday to bring back the normal, cooler spring weather. Unfortunately, rainfall next week at this point looks unimpressive.

If Thursday's heat was a bit much for you, it was still better than the opposite kind of weather in the western states. Parts of Montana were hit with a late season snowstorm Thursday. 

It's common for the mountain summits there to have snow in May, but this snow extended into the valleys, smushing green trees and shrubs under several inches of snow in some towns. Cut Bank, Montana, which already has a reputation for dreadful weather, was down in the mid-20s Thursday afternoon during a day-long snowstorm. 

It's been super dry in Montana, so they needed the moisture, but come on, snow?  Another wet storm is due there over the weekend and early next week, but that one will be mostly rain. 

We'd love for those wet storms out there to head to Vermont, where the precipitation is desperately needed. We'll skip the snow, though, thanks. 

Vermont Forest Fires Burn As Dry, Warm Spring Rolls On

Forest fire in Killington, as seen from Route 4. Photo by
Paul Holmes, via The Mountain Times

A stubborn forest fire in Killington that has been burning since Saturday re-intensified Wednesday as dry conditions in and around Vermont have officials pleading with people to be careful with outdoor flames. 

The Killington fire started Saturday when a new land owner decided to burn brush and slash from previous logging operations on their rugged property in the Green Mountains near Route 4. 

According to The Mountain Times, the landowner did not have a burn permit, which is required in Killington and most Vermont towns before you can set your brush pile alight. 

The land owner has so far not been publicly identified. 

The Killington fire warden said the new landowner might not have known they needed a burn permit, but that's no excuse.  

Also, duh!! Just walking into the woods and fields on Saturday, or yesterday for that matter, would have immediately told you conditions are dry and you might want to wait for wetter conditions before you burn brush. Fire wardens across the state are disinclined to issue burn permits until things get wetter out there.

For the record, the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation lists today's fire danger in the entire state as high. 

So far, the Killington fire is burning pretty far away from any homes and businesses and no structures are threatened. But it is on steep, very difficult to access terrain, making it hard to fight. 

Since Saturday, personnel from at least 10 fire departments from in and near Rutland County have been battling the fire, reports The Mountain Times. The fire appeared to be largely under control by later Sunday as crews raked fire lines to contain the flames. 

However, it was obvious the fire had re-flared Wednesday, as smoke rose from a hillside north of Route 4. Before Wednesday, the fire had burned around 25 acres, which is much bigger than average for a Vermont forest fire.  

The forest fire danger across Vermont is 
high today. No outdoor burning, please!

According to northeastwildfire.org, the average size of a Vermont forest fire is only about two acres or less. The Green Mountain State usually sees between 200 and 400 of these mostly small fires annually, mostly in the spring.

In the distant past, Vermont had much worse forest fires. In 1908, a total of 106 wildfires burned16,000 acres.  Fires in 1903 burned 5,000 acres. 

Back in Killington, the weather is not cooperating with firefighters.  

Warm temperatures and low humidity are allowing the woods to dry out further, and encouraging the fire. Forecasts call for temperatures in the 80s this afternoon with relative humidity quite low - in the 20 to 30 percent range.  

Some showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and likely on Sunday, but it's unclear whether those showers will amount to all that much. 

The Mountain Times said two smaller forest fires broke out in central Vermont in recent days.  One fire in Pittsfield was also started by an out of state landowner who set a brush pile alight without a permit. Another fire near Chittenden Reservoir was quickly contained.

Much more distant wildfires are affecting Vermont, too. The sky was hazy yesterday, and you'll notice the same today.  That's because winds are carrying smoke aloft from fires in southern and central Canada into New England.

Western New York is under an air quality alert today, in part due to particulates from fires embedded in this haze. 

Report: Heat Waves To Be Increasingly Deadly Threat In Coming Decades

Boaters seek cool breezes on Lake Champlain on a hot
day in 2016.  Dangerous heat waves are expected to 
lengthen and worsen both locally and around the world]
due to climate change. 

Here in Vermont, as previously advertised, we're getting this season's first taste of real summer weather.  The past two days have gotten to 80 degrees in Burlington. 

We'll be in the low 80s today and mid to possibly upper 80s Thursday. 

This week's weather is certainly much more nice than dangerous. Though since we're still unaccustomed to the warmth, you want to be careful exerting yourself in afternoon sunshine this week. 

The very warm weather we're in for today and tomorrow is by no means a heat wave and not the hottest weather we've ever seen in May. (That was last May, when Burlington reached an all time May high of 95 degrees. The previous May record was tied just three years earlier).

Those May stats hint at an increased frequency of heat waves, both here and almost everywhere else, and that is a real topic of concern. 

With climate change, heat waves are getting stronger, longer and more deadly. 

Several studies on extreme heat were unveiled at a recent conference, and those studies paint a dangerous picture of future hot spells, both internationally and in the United States, says Inside Climate News

The research shows that ever more intense heat waves combined with high humidity in some parts of tropical Africa and South Asia threaten to make those areas practically unlivable in future decades. 

Also, major cities in the United States are experiencing longer and more intense heat waves now than in the 1960s. If this trend holds, the heat could overwhelm the power grid, causing electricity failures and increasing the risk of a high death toll due to the lack of air conditioning. 

Heat waves are already deadly enough, says Bob Berwyn, writing for Inside Climate News:

"Globally, extreme heat killed at least 166,000 people between 1998 and 2017, according to the World Health Organization, including about 70,000 during a 2003 heat wave in Europe. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control calculated that extreme heat 'caused or contributed to more than 7,800 deaths' between 1999 and 2009."

Heat waves are not the kind of dramatic, "sexy" disasters you see on the news. Hot weather doesn't cause the type of dramatic property damage like hurricanes and tornadoes inflict, so it's not eye-catching. 

Heat deaths occur much more out of public view, and statistics on heat deaths take time to compile. It's not as immediately reportable as the casualties caused by a tornado or flash flood. 

These heat waves can hit the Great White North, too, with fatal results.  A record July, 2018 heat wave caused four deaths in Vermont, making that the state's worst weather disaster since Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. There was no property damage from the heat wave, but tell that to the families of people who succumbed to the heat.

That same July, 2018 heat wave was blamed for 70 deaths in Quebec.

Those increasingly deadly heat waves could also have global societal impacts. If parts of the tropics become places that are too hot to survive, you'll risk having massive migrations to cooler places. Those migrations can cause massive political and economic upheaval, possibly even leading to wars. 

Heat waves are slow moving, quiet disasters.  Stealth disasters like that need more scrutiny, and I'm glad scientists seem to be taking a renewed look at this hot global killers. 

Yeah, this is kind of a downer post, I know.  We all want to count our blessings, but we also ignore trouble spots at our own peril. 

 

First Real Summer Weather Spell In Eastern U.S., Vermont Included. Meanwhile Devastating Floods South

Garden and surroundings in St. Albans, Vermont now
approaching that look of full summer. Highs in the
80s this week will complete the process.

A big ridge of high pressure in the atmosphere is giving the eastern United States its first real taste of summer this week.  

Some spot 90 degree readings are possible as far north as the Northeast Wednesday and Thursday before slightly cooler air arrives during or just after this coming weekend. The Southeast is expected to stay hot well into next week.

Here in Vermont, the first 80 degree temperature of the season came to Burlington yesterday.  Today will remain ever so slightly cooler than that due to morning clouds and a weak weather disturbance.

However by tomorrow and Thursday the warmer Vermont valleys are expected to reach the mid-80s. Though highly unlikely, it's within the realm of possibility if there's full sunshine and conditions are just right, somebody in Vermont could see the first 90 degree reading of the year. 

Such warmth is made easier by the rather dry nature of the air. It can get hotter on sunny days if the humidity is low. Of course, to us it would feel hotter if it were humid, even if that moisture lowered the temperature by a couple degrees. 

The relatively dry air this week will make the unseasonable warmth pretty bearable.

There's some debate as to how quickly the early season "heat" will diminish, but the ridge causing it will break down over the weekend. We will start to trend cooler perhaps as early as Friday, but the process will be on the gradual side.

 A cold front will pass through, probably Saturday or Sunday, bringing temperatures down to near normal (70-ish) by Monday.

It doesn't look like that cold front will bring any needed, drenching rain, but at least it gives us a chance of some showers. We'll take anything we can get, right?

DANGEROUS SOUTHERN FLOODS

One big downside to this nice weather in the East is the same weather pattern is causing havoc in Texas, Louisiana and surrounding areas. The high pressure in the East, combined with storminess further west, is causing repeated rounds of torrential thunderstorms in this region. 

There's already is extensive flooding, and if anything, it will get worse today and tomorrow.  

Some places have already had a foot or more of rain in the past couple of days.  Some spot reports of nearly 18 inches of rain this week. 

Baton Rouge, Louisiana, wrecked by epic flooding in 2016, is now experiencing another round of homes and businesses badly damage by flooding.  

Same is true in Lake Charles, Louisiana, which is still trying to recover from Category 4 Hurricane Laura, and then Hurricane Delta last year. About 80 people had to be rescued from flooded buildings and cars around Lake Charles, and hundreds of homes were flooded Monday. 

One video on social media showed people in Lake Charles casually eating in a diner with ankle deep water on the floor.  Officially, 12.49 inches of rain fell on Lake Charles Monday. Half of that rain came in just six hours. 

Also on Monday, a total of 28 tornadoes touched down, mostly in Louisiana, Texas and New Mexico.  Luckily, they caused relatively light damage. Other tornadoes struck Sunday, including one home in North Dallas that suffered severe tornado damage for the second time in three years.

Western Texas tornadoes stayed mostly over open areas, yielding picturesque funnel and wall clouds.  A gas plant was damaged, but that's about it for destruction from Monday's twisters.  

 More torrential downpours expected today and tomorrow in large parts of Texas and Louisiana will worsen the flooding. 

 

Spring Thunderstorms: Beauty In Vermont; Danger In The Plains

Sunshine lights up green foliage as storm clouds 
loom Sunday in St. Albans, Vermont.

On Sunday here in Vermont, we saw one of the first or at least one of the first, thunderstormy day of the warm season. 

The showers and storms were all hit and miss, as had been expected. The storms were more widespread than in previous days. 

Even those areas that did not get any rain Sunday saw some pretty views of towering convective clouds. 

Many of us heard thunder for the first time in months. For some of us, it was the first thunder since sometime last fall. 

The storms' behavior was pretty fun to watch, at least from a weather geek's perspective. They were slow movers, and for most of the day set up shop over the mountains. For a few hours, they lined up perfectly north to south in Vermont over and just east of the Green Mountains spine. The same set up was true over the eastern Adirondacks. 

The showers and storms caused some abrupt changes in temperature, too. The strong May sun brought afternoon temperatures into the 70s for most of us. But cold air lurked aloft.  Outflow winds from the storms would bring local temperatures down by 20 degrees, turning a warm May Sunday into a chilly one.

The rain-cooled air set the stage for a somewhat cold morning today as skies cleared overnight, allowing temperatures to drop further. It was 30 degrees early this morning in notorious cold spot Saranac Lake, New York and 34 degrees in Island Pond. Most of us saw temperatures in the low 40s at dawn, but don't worry, readings will rocket back up into the 70s by this afternoon.

Most of Sunday's showers were pretty light, so for most places, relief from the dry spell was either lame or non-existent.  Late in the day, St. Albans, got bullseyed by a shower and left us with 0.08 inch. Morrisville got 0.17 inches. 

This looks vaguely like one of those photos of a big
tornado forming in the Great Plains, but it's really just
a narrow,  benign rain shaft southwest of 
St. Albans, Vermont Sunday evening. 

One exception to the light rain rule was detected by radar near Smugglers Notch and along the Sterling Range in Lamoille County, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 

There, stalled storms, updrafts aided by the mountains and merging storms created a small area with an estimated three inches of rain. 

Meanwhile a forest fire burned further south around Killington, go figure. 

You could see rain shafts coming from the storms, and all of them were quite narrow. 

Some of the rain shafts had the shape of a big tornado forming in the Great Plains, but of course they were not spinning and were merely benign, brief bursts of locally beneficial rains. Pretty to look at, but that's it. 

There might be a few more showers and storms today, but they will be quite a bit fewer and further between than on Sunday.  More scattered showers and storms are possible toward the end of the week. 

We should get a taste of summer, too, with daytime readings possibly getting into the low 80s Wednesday into the weekend before a cold front brings us back to reality early next week.

SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUBLE

Thunderstorms were and are creating trouble, not beauty, in the southern Plains.  It's storm season, so it's natural to see a few tornadoes and some giant hailstones blast from the sky in that part of the country this time of year. 

The odd part of the storms there is and will be their persistence and the tremendous amount of rain they're producing. Flash flooding was already a problem in parts of Texas Sunday.  Dallas and surrounding areas suffered extensive flooding yesterday, with numerous people needing rescue from inundated cars.

The flooding will only get worse this week. 

Repeated storms are forecast to dump up to 10 inches of rain on much of the eastern half of Texas this week. Those areas have already had a lot of rain, which means flooding is going to be a huge problem all week. 

 

It'a Beautiful Peak Spring in Vermont, And Kinda Into Summer Now

Flowers blooming in my St. Albans, Vermont garden
this morning. It's peak spring! 

It is such a pleasure to be outdoors this time of year. 

The new leaves on the trees are now unfolding so fast you can almost watch them expand if you just stare at them  Fragrances of lilac and apple blossoms and the organic aromas of new growth make everything outdoors (except for me) smell so wonderful.  

The warm light of peak spring starts earlier than most of us get up in the morning and lasts well into the evening. 

Happy birdsong fills the air with eggs and hatchlings in the nests built in the past month or so in the shed rafters, atop outdoor lights and the crooks and crannies of the house deck supports. 

Take the dogs outside, and the roll around blissfully in the cool, sweet green grass.

Only the clouds of black flies that descend as soon as the breeze slackens takes away from this heavenly panorama.

I've always felt lucky to live in Vermont, where we're rewarded with such a glorious time of year after a long winter. I feel doubly blessed this year. The Covid pandemic has so far spared my family, my husband, myself. 

I've never taken springtime in Vermont for granted. This year, that's especially true. 

At this time last year, as the terrible pandemic took hold and grew, I wondered it that would be the last time I would be able to enjoy the season. Like everyone, I was at risk of losing the physical ability to fully enjoy the outdoors. Or lose my sense of smell, which is a real tragedy for anyone this time of year. 

The risk isn't over of course. But I'm still healthy, and I've had my Covid shots. So have my husband, siblings, mother, in-laws.  This all makes this sweet, colorful and busy season all the better. 

Even though it's the height of spring, I also have a broad definition of what constitutes summer, and to my mind we've arrived at that season. 

Oh, sure, we'll still have chilly days. There could still be a late frost. It's not unheard of to snow in Vermont this late in the season, though that's quite rare. 

Hosta leaves  unfurling in my St. Albans, Vermont
gardens this morning

But we've entered our first sustained period of what can easily pass for summertime weather. It got up to 78 degrees in Burlington Saturday, making it the warmest day so far this year. It could reach into the 80s later this week. 

We're lacking the rain we need, but we at least see attempts at the summertime ritual of afternoon and evening showers and thundershowers popping up in the afternoons and evenings. 

The showers will be few and far between and generally light for the next few day, but they'll be there. 

I see a familiar summertime pattern in the meteorological charts, too.  A big northward bulge in the jet stream is developing in the eastern United States this coming week. 

It will bring bonafide heat to parts of the East, with many places hitting 90, with of course those aforementioned 80s in Vermont by midweek. 

Another familiar summertime pattern are what a lot of us weather geeks call "ridge runner" disturbances. Those are little weather systems that ride the northern periphery of those northward bulges, or ridges in the atmosphere. 

As is often the case in the summer, we might well be in the path of those ridge runners later this week. If that's the case, those ridge runners could set off a few more of those scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms by late week. 

Please do yourself a favor and go outside and enjoy nature at its full glory. It'll clear your mind, bring you a measure of piece, improve your mood. Peak spring in Vermont is some of the best psychiatric medicine available in the world. And it's free! 

Maybe Those Winter Storms Were NOT Caused By Jet Stream Made Weird By Climate Change

There's new debate over the specific mechanisms causing
intense winter snaps in places like the U.S. and
Europe despite an overall warming climate.

A theory about sharp winter storms and cold waves made paradoxically worse by a warming climate just took a big blow. 

I've mentioned this idea several times before during rough winter weather in the past, but here's a recap:

The theory is that the Arctic is warming faster than the mid-latitudes. That reduces the contrast in temperature between the far North and places down here. 

The reduced temperature contrast slows the jet stream, making it more prone to having bigger twists and turns along its path.  Occasional bigger southward dips in this jet stream regime would create a few intense cold snaps and winter storms, despite an overall warming climate. 

This idea gets floated a lot, like during the big Texas freeze and winter storm back in February. And it really does make sense. 

Except that new research suggests this whole wavy jet stream scenario isn't happening after all. Or at least isn't happening as much as some first though. 

The journal Science published an article recently about this new research.

As Science states:

"Now, the most comprehensive modeling investigation into this link has delivered the heaviest blow yet: Even after the massive sea ice loss expected by midcentury, the polar jet stream will only weaken by tiny amounts - at most only 10% of the natural swings. And in today's world, the influence of ice loss on winter weather is negligible, says James Screen, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter and the co-leader of the investigation."

The thought that a fast warming Arctic would screw around with the jet stream gained notice in 2012 through a paper by scientists Jennifer Francis and Stephen Vavrus that examined this idea.

Francis and Vavrus had detected a weakening of the jet stream between the 1980s and the early 2010s that bolstered their theory of a more lame, meandering jet stream causing occasional extreme winter events in North America and Europe.

That weakening trend has since petered out even as carbon emissions and climate change continued unabated.

Of course, as Science notes, something else might be going on in the overall warmer atmosphere that is causing those occasional, intense, record breaking winter cold snaps that are interrupting our warmer winters now and then. 

Is less sea ice, combined with a trend for more snow over recent decades in Siberia, causing stratospheric disruptions. Those stratospheric disruptions mess with the polar vortex.  The polar vortex - a giant whirl of cold normally in the Arctic - then gets blown to pieces temporarily, helping send frigid air from the North Pole to places like Texas or Great Britain. 

Or, maybe atmospheric rivers - channels of warm, wet air - heading toward the Arctic more frequently, somehow displacing the normal icy air up there and sending it southward to torture the snow birds in normally temperate climates?

All this uncertainty proves the following: The basic science of climate change is settled science. Anyone who still believes the climate is not changing because of carbon emissions is either a crackpot or lying. 

However, the detailed mechanisms of this warming - how it affects specific weather events, specific locations and specific aspects of our complicated atmosphere - still need lots of study.

It's important to do so, because the more understanding we have of the deep details of climate change, the better society will be at anticipating and reacting to the negative effects of what we're doing to the atmosphere. 

 

 

Vermont Drought Eases, But Looks Like It Will Re-Assert Itself

Latest drought monitor shows things improving in
Vermont. Drought area, in orange, shrunk a 
lot from the previous week, and southern
Vermont even lost its abnormally dry designation.
However, weather forecasts for the next two weeks
indicate very dry weather, so back we go into 
drought, probably. 

Soaking rains at the beginning of this month eased, but did not entirely erase lingering dry conditions here in Vermont. 

And if forecasts for the next couple of weeks are correct, any drought that's still out there will start to worsen again.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, about 25 percent of Vermont was in drought as of May 11, down from 75 percent a week earlier.  Drought conditions are now mostly east of the Green Mountains north of Springfield.

All of Vermont was at least abnormally dry two weeks ago, but that designation was removed from southwestern Vermont in the past week. 

The whole Northeast has gotten better with dry conditions over the past month. The drought left in the region is those areas in Vermont and a small pocket in northern New York.

Now that we've seen improvement, we're unfortunately going to go back the other way. In the next few days, the best we'll do is scattered light, hit or miss showers.  Long range forecasts going out two weeks call for below normal rainfall. 

Humid weather can slow the drying process if the showers get shut off. But we're out of luck there, too.  This time of year, we can get the first muggy summer-type air of the season. 

But it looks like it will be relatively warm, but dry with low dew points most of the time for the next week or two at least.  At least the weather will be mostly nice, anyway. 

The bottom line is we'll still have to watch the water levels as we head into summer. 

At least we in Vermont are not doing nearly as bad as other parts of the nation with drought. Most of the western half of the United States is in drought. In the Southwest, it's extreme drought and the prospects for any rain out there are poor.

Wildfires have already broken out in Arizona and California, weeks or even months before they usually do.  It'll be a long, hot, troublesome summer out there.