Spring Rains Easing Lingering Vermont Drought: A Dry Week Will End In A Wet Spell

All winter and early spring, the U.S Drought
Monitor showed continues moderate drought
in northeast Vermont, (orange) and 
abnormal dryness south (yellow)......

Lingering drought in Vermont was literally frozen in place all winter. 

The very serious drought the state experienced last summer and fall had eased somewhat thanks to decent rains in the late autumn. 

Severe drought in northeastern Vermont improved to moderate drought as we went through December, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. But then the improvement stopped. 

The northeastern third of the state remained in moderate drought, and southern Vermont was abnormally dry through the winter and early spring. 

Rivers, lakes and the ground had frozen as we'd gotten deeper into winter. Most of the precipitation fell as snow. Snow is only potential drought relief. It doesn't really help anything unless it melts.  The question remained: Was the drought continuing to est. 

The thawing of spring has cleared that up. The dry conditions are improving. 

We didn't actually see any change in the weekly drought reports until the April 16 weekly report. Drought had been reduced to a small area in the Connecticut River valley. The Northeast Kingdom and southern Vermont were still abnormally dry, but not quite in drought. 

This week's U.S. Drought Monitor report, released yesterday, shows just a sliver of the Connecticut River Valley between about White River Junction and Springfield still in drought. That area represents only about 4% of Vermont's land area were still in drought. 

Most of the rest of southern Vermont was still abnormally dry, but that designation was removed in the Northeast Kingdom. The drought in northern parts of the Green Mountain State that began last August  is finally over, at least for now. 

The measurements the U.S. Drought Monitor uses go up to Tuesday, two days before the report is released. 

This week's U.S. Drought Monitor, released
yesterday. has only a small area of drought
near White River Junction and Springfield
and abnormal dryness in southern
Vermont. Elsewhere the trough is over. 

This week, Vermont has entered a notable dry spell. Nothing other than isolated sprinkles and a few snowflakes have fallen since this past Tuesday. 

No rain is forecast until at least next Tuesday. The air will remain very dry over the next few days, with rock-bottom humidity levels. Strong April sun will penetrate to the ground through still-leafless trees. 

That means we might  have a little backsliding in next week's U.S. Drought Monitor report, but I wouldn't worry too much.

Week-long spells of very dry weather are common in late April and early May. It doesn't mean they will last that long. 

In fact, forecasters have relatively high confidence that we'll enter a wetter period starting in about five days or so. I don't' see boatloads of rain coming,

Most of the time over the next couple of weeks, we won't have any actual storms bringing steadier rain to the North Country. We'll probably have a couple such storms, but they won't represent the majority of the weather we'll face.

Instead, a pool of very cold, subfreezing air will settle in several thousand feet overhead. In the winter, that would have meant a long, miserable slog of overcast skies and light snow flurries.

This time of year, with the strong spring sun, that means the cold air aloft will create tall, billowing clouds.  That means frequent showers, especially in the afternoons and evenings, mixed with a few breaks of clouds. We might well get into an early May pattern where it rains every day or close to it, but very few days would be a washout. 

We'll have to wait a few days to see if the weather will work out exactly that way. We'll also have to wait until next week to determine which days turn out mostly wet, and which turn out mostly dry with just a few showers. 

SPECIFIC VERMONT FORECAST

In the meantime, sunshine is the name of the game.

Here are some specifics

Today/Saturday

Today will be the coolest day of the bunch. Most of us had a frost and freeze this morning. No worries, we always get those this time of year and it wasn't enough to harm garden plants. 

Highs this afternoon will only get to the upper 40s in the Northeast Kingdom to the low 50s elsewhere. There should be some mid-50s on southern valley floors. 

It will feel a little confusing out there, just as it did yesterday. When there's a lull in the wind, it will feel warm and you'll wonder why you're wearing that damn fleece.  Then a little gust of wind will come along and you'll know why. 

Tonight will actually be a little colder than last night. Almost everyone will get into the mid and upper 20s. It might be closer to 30 in the warmer valleys. 

Such temperatures would be a big problem in mid-May when everything is blooming. But the early stuff out there now should do just fine. 

The storm that caused the tornadoes and rough weather in the Plains Thursday is shearing apart. The remains of the storm will create an area of rain that will dive down from basically Buffalo, New York, to New York, City on Saturday. 

That will leave us in the clear, with maybe some high clouds, especially in southwestern Vermont.  It'll be a few degrees warmer than today, but still just a touch on the cool side. 

Sunday/Monday

The sunshine fest will continue, as highs top out near 60 degrees both days. That's roughly normal for this time of year. Yes, 60 is normal. We're in full spring now. 

Tuesday and Beyond

We might squeak out one more sunny day Tuesday. It depends on the pace of a weakening storm that will be headed our way. After that, the showery regime I mentioned should settle in for awhile. 

Drought Hangs On In Eastern Vermont, While Last Vestiges Of It Disappearing West

Drought conditions held firm in Northeastern Vermont
with this week's U.S Drought Monitor, but the
lower level abnormally dry conditions 
western Vermont continued to fade. 

The big drought, remember that?

It's been out of the headlines here in the Green Mountain State lately since the worst of it eased in the late autumn. It's hard to think there's drought while you're playing in the snow. .

But the drought is not dead yet.  Drought conditions remained unchanged in eastern Vermont, according to today's weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. However, the last vestiges of the drought are slowly disappearing from western parts of the state

Forty-one percent of Vermont remains in drought, same as last week. The drought area is east of the Green Mountains north of about Springfield. Severe drought is hanging on in the Northeast Kingdom, and has not improved since last week. 

Last week, abnormally dry condition - a step below drought - continued in western Vermont except in western Chittenden and Franklin counties, where the dry conditions has officially ended. This week, the area that were no longer abnormally dry and had adequate moisture expanded into Addison and Rutland counties.  

Abnormally dry conditions also contracted out of Chittenden County and all but the extreme eastern edge of Franklin County. 

Precipitation was less than stellar in Vermont in the seven days ending on Tuesday, which is the period this week's Drought Monitor covers. But at least it did rain and snow some, so that helped a little. A thaw during that period also melted snow which soaked into the ground. 

Elsewhere, the Drought Monitor only detected minuscule improvements in the drought over in New Hampshire and Maine. New York, which has generally had a somewhat less severe drought than New England, showed some improvement. 

OUTLOOK

Any improvement will continue to be slow in Vermont and the rest of the North Country.  The outlook for the next week or so only calls for occasional chances of light snow. If you melt the expected snow down over the next seven days, you'd only get about a quarter inch of rain equivalent. 

Much below normal temperatures will continue to harden the ground
, which will help remaining drought conditions literally freeze in place 

What snow we do get will be banked until any off-season thaws we get later this winter, or will wait for spring. 

Vermont Drought Recovery Stalls, Hopefully Temporarily

Vermont's improvement from this summer and autumn's 
deep drought stalled in the past week, as only light
amounts of precipitation fell recently. An active
weather pattern coming up might lead to
further improvements, though. 

Vermont's drought conditions are pretty much the same as the previous week, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, issued Wednesday. 

The Monitor, which usually comes out Thursday but was a day early this week due to Thanksgiving, shows only the slightest glimmer of improvement. 

A small corner of southwest Vermont went from abnormally dry, which is one step below drought, to nothing at all, meaning water levels are sufficient. 

Otherwise, it's all the same as the week before. About 25 percent of the state mostly in the Northeast Kingdom, is still in severe drought. 

Most of the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains are in moderate drought. Most of the rest of the state is abnormally dry. That sliver of southwest Vermont, along with most of the Champlain Valley is out of danger. 

At least things didn't get worse. 

Precipitation was modest in Vermont last week, which explains the lack of change. The weekly report takes into consideration conditions running from last Wednesday to Tuesday. During that period less than a quarter inch of rain and melted snow fell across most of Vermont, though there was more than that in the mountains. 

A week of such light rainfall in late summer or early autumn likely would have worsened the drought, at least a little. But during the week ending on Tuesday, skies were mostly overcast, trees and other plants are now dormant and the weather was generally damp, so there wasn't much evaporation. 

In some places, melting snow added a little to the groundwater. All that means Vermont's drought conditions were able to hold steady.

Elsewhere in the Northeast, drought conditions improved ever so slightly in New Hampshire and Maine, and improved modestly in New York. 

OUTLOOK:

It still looks like we're in an active weather pattern, which means we have frequent chances of precipitation. Moderate amounts of rain fell Wednesday, which will be taken into account with next week's drought monitor, 

The amount of precipitation expected over the next week looks moderate, maybe sort of heavy in southern Vermont, depending on how storm tracks go. Much of the precipitation this coming week will come down as snow.  I'm not entirely sure if that's included in the Drought Monitor, or whether the snow is just "banked" and improves drought conditions when it melts.  

Vermont Drought Continues To Improve, Still Bad NEK; Overall Improvement In Northeast U.S.

This week's U.S. Drought Monitor released this
morning, shows improvement in Vermont. 
The Champlain Valley is no longer in 
drought, just "abnormally dry."
The area of extreme drought (red) has
decreased some in eastern Vermont. 

Vermont continues to slowly dig its way out of a severe, months-long drought, but we still need several more rainy (or snowy) months to escape the clutches of this terrible dry spell. 

This is according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, the latest edition of which just came out this morning. 

The best news concerned  the Champlain Valley, which is no longer in drought as of this week. Depending on where you are in the valley, it's the first time since either August 21 or 28 that drought conditions no longer exist in that part of the northwest Vermont 

The Champlain Valley is still regarded as abnormally dry, which means if there's any shift to dry weather again, drought could resume. 

The improvement in the Champlain Valley can also be seen in the Lake Champlain level. On Tuesday (November 11) , the lake level went above 94 feet for the first time since August 14. 

That's still about six inches below normal for this time of year. But it's better than back on October 20, when the lake was 1.3 feet or so below normal.

I've also noticed Vermont rivers are still on the low side, but stream flows have improved some from those sad little trickles we saw back in September and October. 

DROUGHT CONTINUES ELSEWHERE

The rest of Vermont is still in drought, according to this morning's Drought Monitor, but there are signs of improvement elsewhere in the Green Mountain State, too.

The area of extreme drought in the eastern and northern part of the state is a little smaller than last week. Extreme drought now covers 25 percent of the state, compared to 41 percent last week. 

The Green Mountain range, and much of Addison County improved from severe drought last week to moderate drought as of this morning. Also, most of Windham County in far southeastern Vermont was in severe drought last week, but improved to moderate drought today. 

The rest of the Northeast generally improved from last week too. Areas of extreme and severe drought shrank a little in New Hampshire. 

Northern Maine got a little drier but the rest of the state saw some improvement. The percentage of Maine in severe drought declined for the first time since mid-September. 

New York saw a little improvement in drought conditions, too.

OUTLOOK

Vermont got lucky in the past week because storms brought heavier precipitation than forecast. That trend of unexpectedly heavy rain and snow can't continue forever, but we do want it to.

Over the next week, we're not expecting boatloads of rain, snow and ice, but some precipitation is due. Which leads me to believe next week's drought monitor should, I hope see no reversals. 

Maybe it'll stay about the same as it is this week, unless the storm due Saturday night and early Sunday really surprises forecasters with a lot of rain, ice and snow. 

For now, a quarter to a little over a half inch of rain and melted snow and ice is expected in Vermont over the next seven days. Somewhat more than that is forecast in the northern and central Green Mountains 

That's not a spectacular amount of precipitation but it's now awful either. 

Long range forecasts taking us to near the end of November indicate Vermont would see near normal, or perhaps slightly above normal precipitation. 

Drought Eases In Western Vermont, Continues Raging In East; Other Parts Of Northeast Improve Somewhat

Drought conditions improved somewhat since
last week in western Vermont. Most areas west
of the Green Mountains improved from 
severe to moderate drought. A small area
in southwest Vermont came out of drought.
Eastern Vermont remains mired in
extreme drought. 

 Last week's heavy rains in parts of Vermont helped ease the drought in western parts of the state, though eastern areas of the Green Mountain State are still mired in extreme drought.

This according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, which came out this morning. 

This week's report for Vermont had some changes compared to last week. 

An area of extreme drought in Addison County a week earlier has been downgraded to severe drought. 

Last week's Drought Monitor had a lower grade moderate drought in a small area of northwest Vermont and a small corner of southwest Vermont.  The rest of western Vermont was in severe drought.

The update out this morning shows that severe drought in western Vermont improved to moderate drought, except for that patch in Addison County that is now in severe drought.

And, for the first time since August 26, a little piece of Vermont is no longer in drought. That tiny corner of southwestern Rutland County is now just "abnormally dry" and not official in drought. 

This leaves just 1.35 percent of Vermont out of the drought. Tiny, but it's a start.  

Overall, about 63 percent of Vermont are in severe or extreme drought, compared to 88 percent last week. 

The changes in this morning's Drought Monitor for Vermont make sense. 

The rain last week focused on western Vermont, and largely avoided eastern parts of the state. That's why areas of Vermont east of the Green Mountains and north of Springfield are still in extreme drought. 

For the northeastern United States overall, last week's rains created some slight improvements but dryness and drought are at near record highs for the region. About 85 percent of the Northeast was abnormally dry or in drought, compared to 93.4 percent last week. As extensive as the dryness is, it's at its lowest level since mid-September. 

In New Hampshire, drought conditions were unchanged from the week before. Nearly 83 percent of the Granite State was at least in severe drought, with 37 percent in extreme drought.  There were inconsequential adjustments to drought conditions in Maine, but overall things have neither improved or deteriorated there since last week. 

New York saw some noticeable improvement. Severe drought virtually disappeared from the Empire State for the first time since August 26. Technically, there is a bit of severe drought in New York, but it covers just 0.07 percent of the state, so basically nothing. 

Nearly 55 percent of New York is in drought, compared to 70 percent last week.  

THE OUTLOOK

The U.S. Drought Monitor that comes out every Thursday takes into account conditions through Tuesday, two days before the Monitor is published. 

It did rain and snow some in Vermont yesterday, and some more precipitation is in the forecast over the next few days. But current predictions don't give us a lot of rain through next Tuesday. Give or take, we can expect perhaps, roughly, a half inch of rain or melted snow.

 I'm guessing that won't be enough to create much further improvement in the drought, but those overall dry conditions likely won't worsen, either. Longer range forecasts are kind of "meh" if you want drought relief.

NOAA's extended outlooks, covering the period from November 11 to 19, predicts near to below normal precipitation in Vermont, with the odds tilted a bit more toward below normal in southern Vermont. 

That's not great, as we really need some soaking rains, I'm talking inches of rain. That doesn't seem to be in the cards, at least for now. 

We're grateful for the slight improvements we've seen in the Vermont drought situation. But we're still stuck with a miserably dry situation heading into winter. Especially in eastern Vermont. 

New England/Vermont Drought Holds Firm, Only Slight Improvement After Last Week's Rains

Only slight improvement shown in this week's
 Drought Monitor for Vermont. The 
Green Mountains went from extreme 
drought down to a slightly less dire
severe drought. Everything else
in Vermont was unchanged from
last week's report. 

 The closely watched weekly U.S. Drought Monitor came out on scheduled this morning, and it shows only modest improvement here in Vermont, despite some decent rains last week. 

It demonstrates how hard it is to emerge from a drought. It was a flash drought, one that developed over just a few weeks. Unfortunately, once you're in a drought, it's hard to get out of it. 

The area of Vermont under extreme drought diminished a little since last week. The area of extreme drought was removed from the Green Mountain range  Extreme drought continues in western Addison County and east of the Green Mountains and roughly north of Route 4. 

This makes sense, since last week's storm dumped its heaviest rain along the spine of the Green Mountains. 

About 47 percent of Vermont was in extreme drought this week, compared to 59 percent last week. So, not much improvement. 

Areas that were in severe drought in Vermont are unchanged from last week. Far northwestern Vermont, a small corner of southwest Vermont and a thin sliver along the Massachusetts border were in less intense moderate drought, exactly the same as last week.

In the rest of New England and Northeast, areas of extreme drought diminished a little in New Hampshire and some of the mountains of western Maine. However, drought intensified in southern and eastern Maine. 

Drought conditions in New York were basically  unchanged, improving a little near Lake Erie but worsening a bit in some of the central parts of the state. 

It's raining again in the Northeast, so maybe there will be another slight improvement next week. 

VERMONT RAIN  OUTLOOK

A little more drought relief coming today through
early Saturday with 0.5 to a little over an inch of
rain in the forecast for Vermont. 

We are going to get a decent rainfall in Vermont today through early Saturday, though in some parts of the state, predicted rainfall amounts are cut back a little. 

The heaviest rain looks like it will go to the west and east of Vermont. Parts of central and northwest New York, and eastern New England should get 1.5 inches of rain or a little more than that by Saturday morning. 

Vermont should do OK, with maybe a half inch in low elevations of southwest Vermont, about three quarters of an inch across the southeast, central and northern parts of the state. 

Northwest Vermont, often the winner lately with rainstorms, will probably do it again, with an expected rainfall of a little over an inch by Saturday. 

Here are the picky details of the forecast: 

he initial burst of rain this morning is moving directly north over New York. It's having a tough time moving east into Vermont.

It will gradually get wetter, west to east across the Green Mountain State today. The rain might kind of sputter out for a time late this afternoon and early evening. But then a good wave of steady rain should come in tonight.

For much of the state, it will be kind of a stormy night.  On top of the rain, a stiff east wind will blow across much of the area. That will be especially true along the western slopes of the Green Mountain, where winds could gust to 45 mph or so.

A few favored spots along the western slopes could maybe gust to 55 mph, but that won't be widespread. If the rain is on the heavy side, the wind will be a little lighter. Periods when the rain is much lighter along the western slopes might bring some stronger gusts. 

Not a horrific storm, but tonight's weather will show that we're now into the season where we can get those blustery late autumn storms 

The rain should continue into Friday, but it will turn showery by afternoon. The rain will mostly end in southeast Vermont. 

Friday will be another blustery day, especially in the afternoon, with the wind coming from the northwest instead of the east.  The rain might stop completely for awhile Friday morning as a tongue of dry air tries to  come in. But showers will fill back in, especially north and along the western slopes of the central and northern Green Mountains. 

For trick or treaters, this Halloween will be a polar opposite of last year. Halloween, 2024 brought record-shattering high temperatures, and those ghosts and monsters and goblins on the streets basically enjoyed a typical summer evening. 

Not this year. A gusty northwest wind will add to the chill amid temperatures in the 40s to around 50 at best Friday evening. The showers will be relatively light, but persistent, especially central and north. 

As the night goes on, snow that will have started at the summits Friday afternoon will go downhill in elevation, reaching as low as 1,500 feet by Saturday morning. There could be light accumulations above 2,000 feet, and maybe several inches at the summits.

Saturday will be a blustery, cold, cloudy November day, which is a hallmark of the month. There could be some valley light rain showers and mountain snow showers, but amounts will be light. 

Sunday will be calmer.

As we look ahead in hopes of more drought relief, I don't see much. It looks like the pattern heading into mid-November will feature frequent chances of light rain or mountain snow. I don't see any signs of more drenching super-soakers for now. 

 

New U.S. Drought Monitor Report Shows No Real Improvement In Vermont/New England.

This weeks's U.S. Drought Monitor shows little 
improvement over last week, despite some
rain. Red area is extreme drought, orange
is severe, lighter orange is moderate drought. 

 The latest weekly U.S Drought Monitor, out this morning, shows no improvement in our deep Vermont drought conditions, despite some decent rainfall last week. 

About two thirds of the Green Mountain State is in extreme drought, about the same level has the week before. 

Droughts are categorized in rank of increasing severity as moderate, severe, extreme and exceptional. 

By the time you get up to extreme drought, you see crop losses, struggling dairy farms, extremely low water in rivers and steams and exceptionally busy well drillers and bulk water haulers. All of that is definitely happening in Vermont.  

All but tiny slivers in the rest of Vermont is in extreme drought. Only minuscule areas in extreme southern Vermont, northern Grand Isle County and a small section of southwest Rutland County are in moderate drought. 

The section of Rutland County that's now in moderate instead of severe drought is the only slight improvement over last week I could find. The area of extreme drought in Rutland County also shrank a little.

That improvement was offset by extreme drought spreading more into eastern Chittenden and Franklin counties and western Lamoille County. 

These are all fussy little changes. Essentially, things are unchanged for the report that came out a week ago. 

In the rest of the Northeast, heavy rains improved things somewhat in southern New England, but drought worsened in eastern Maine and New York's St. Lawrence Valley.

OUTLOOK

This was a flash drought in Vermont, one that develops within weeks instead of months that regular droughts do. However, you almost never see a flash end to a drought. 

Even if we get a lot of soaking rains, and big blitzes of winter snows, I don't think the drought will disappear anytime soon. I'm betting it could easily last into the spring. It might improve over the coming months if we get a lot of precipitation, but it will be a long slog. 

Plus, there's no promise of much soaking rains. We do have several chances of rain over the next week or two, but I'm unimpressed by the amount of precipitation we'll get from these weather systems. 

In the short term, today is a high risk fire day in the Green Mountain State. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates today's wildfire risk as very high, except for the southern Green Mountains, where the risk is "merely" high, with no adjectives. 

True, we had a little rain earlier this week, but not much. It was enough to briefly wet down fallen leaves and dead grasses and weeds, but not enough to soak the fallen branches and trees, and underground roots in our forests. 

The wind has dried out the leaves and weeds. Winds are forecast to gust to 30 mph or more for the rest of today. That means any fires that start will spread fast.

The breezes will be lighter tomorrow and Saturday, so the risk of rapidly spreading fires will be lower. But new fires could easily start, as it will be quite dry those days. 

Rain is still in the forecast Sunday night and Monday, but we don't  yet know how much we'll get. Unlike the few rain storms we've had this fall, mainly cloudy, somewhat damp and showery weather could continue into the middle of next week, which would be great.   

We seem to be switching out of a weather pattern in which big, dry high pressure systems stalled over us and kept rainmakers away. But the new weather pattern looks only somewhat wetter, with relatively weak, fast moving little storms throwing some shots of generally light rain at us. 

The worsening trend in the drought might slow or even stop in the coming weeks, but unless we see some pleasant surprises, don't count on a lot of improvement anytime soon. 

Last Week's Rain Didn't Ease Vermont Drought, Says Weekly Report

The new weekly U.S. Drought Report issued
this morning is unchanged from last week.
Red in central Vermont is extreme drought.
The orange covering almost all the rest
of the state depicts severe drought. 

Lately, many of us have waited with bated breath to see the weekly Thursday U.S. Drought Report to find out how badly our big drought is punishing Vermont.  

The one that came out this morning show us last week's rain didn't help at all with the drought. 

On the bright side, things didn't get worse, either. Instead, drought conditions in Vermont are exactly the same as the week before. 

The same zone of extreme drought covers central Vermont. Most of the rest of the state is in severe drought, just like the week before.

Also like the previous week, only the extreme northwest and southeast corners of the state are "merely" in moderate drought. 

Drought conditions were also unchanged in most of the rest of New England, with the worst conditions in central Vermont, central New Hampshire in southern Maine. 

The Drought Monitor people explain it this way:

"In New England, heavier rains of mostly one to locally four inches were only enough to put the brakes on the developing drought, as streamflows decreased substantially after the event and rains struggled to infiltrate deeper into soils. Additionally, significant short-term rainfall deficits still exist in many areas despite the rain."

One way to look at it is to see what happened to Lake Champlain after the rain. If soil moisture had been adequate, last week's rain would have created more runoff and rivers would have risen noticeably. The Lake Champlain lake level would have also risen by perhaps a few inches.  

Instead, the lake level only went from 93.03 inches to 93.13 inches. That's barely a blip and still a remarkably low lake level. As of Wednesday, it was back down to 93.07 feet. 

The Drought Monitor measures conditions as of Tuesday, two days before the report is released. It hasn't rained in Vermont since last Friday, and no rain is in the forecast until at least Tuesday. So, chances are, the drought will go back to its worsening trend after this week.

As you'd expect, Vermont and surrounding areas are still increasingly suffering from this drought.  

According to Vermont Public, the state's Department of Environmental Conservation has received reports of more than 400 wells running dry since August. That's four times as many as they received from 2016 to 2025. 

About 40 percent of Vermonters get their water from a private well. But information on what share of that total is from spring-fed wells or dug wells. 

Drilling a new well can cost $20,000, and there's little public assistance for people who need a new well. This is turning into a financial crisis as well as a water crisis for many Vermont households. 

Vermont ski areas are warily watching the drought, WPTZ reports. At Sugarbush in Warren, the snowmaking ponds have enough water to start the season. But the resort relies on the Mad River to withdraw water for snowmaking. The river has to be above a certain level for that to happen. Right now, the river is far too low to allow the resort to pull water from it. 

Sugarbush officials are hoping some good late autumn rains arrive to fill up the Mad River, and the snowmaking ponds. 

Jay Peak has invested in snowmaking equipment that uses less water than old systems but makes about the same amount of snow. 

Climate change overall is making New England wetter. But paradoxically, droughts are worsening, too. 

Much of the rain we do get comes in short, sharp, extreme events, and the long, slow wet periods we used to see are less frequent. For instance, almost all the Vermont rain in September fell in just four or five days. 

Also, weather patterns seem to be getting "stuck" one way or another, wet or dry, for longer periods. The climate is warmer than it used to be, too. Warmer weather tends to increase evaporation, allowing droughts to develop more quickly and become more severe. 

That's what happened in Vermont this year. The drought started developing in July, one of the warmest on record. Then it abruptly, seriously deepened in mid-August amid a record breaking and extraordinarily arid heat wave.

September was also very warm and dry, which exacerbated things even further. October is opening the same way - warm and dry.  

Long range forecasts offer us Vermonters little encouragement. It still looks like an occasional series of light rainfalls might start around October 9, but so far, each "storm" looks modest and would do little if anything to ease the drought. 

To Nobody's Surprise, Drought Gets Much Worse In Vermont/New England

The U.S. Drought Monitor, updated this 
morning, shows worsening conditions in 
Vermont. A new sliver of extreme
drought (red shading) has popped
up in the Connecticut River Valley.
Darker orange is severe drought and
lighter orange is moderate drought. 

 The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, hot off the press this morning, confirms the depressing news:  

The drought in Vermont and in much of the rest of New England continues to get worse. 

It hasn't rained since the last weekly report came out, so the news isn't surprising. But it underscores how bad things are getting. 

All of Vermont except the extreme south and extreme northwest is now in severe drought, according to the weekly monitor.  

Last week, 59 percent of the state was in severe drought with the rest being in moderate drought. This morning's report shows 78 percent of the Green Mountain State in severe drought. 

A small area of extreme drought that was confined to a limited portion of western New Hampshire last week has expanded. 

A sliver of the central Connecticut River Valley in Vermont between about Windsor and Newbury is now considered to be in extreme drought. 

The expanded area of extreme drought also now extends across central New Hampshire into southwest Maine. New Hampshire is arguably the hardest hit state so far in this Northeast drought. Around 73 percent of the Granite State is in at least severe drought, up from 52 percent last week. And 23 percent of  New Hampshire is in extreme drought, up from just 7 percent last week. 

Drought is expanding in northern New York, too. It covers all of eastern parts of that state along the Vermont border and is extending into the Adirondacks and parts of the St. Lawrence Valley. 

Actually, despite a few wet areas, the continental U.S. is getting drier. Last week, about 36 percent of the nation was in drought. This week, it's 41 percent. 

THE FORECAST

Very low water levels along the Lamoille River in 
Jeffersonville, Vermont Tuesday. 

Things continue to look grim in terms of rainfall around Vermont. I suppose the next week will be wetter than the one we just had. 

Only because most of us didn't get a drop of rain in the past seven days, and there's actually chances for sprinkles over the next week.  

Sprinkles aren't going to cut it, so the drought will continue to worsen. 

It means wells will continue to go dry, water in rivers and lakes will continue to recede from in some cases already record low levels.  At least six river gauges in Vermont were recording record low levels on Tuesday. 

And the fire danger will continue to rise. 

After the widely scattered sprinkles that might or might not hit tonight, that's it for rain until at least next Tuesday. 

I continue to be unimpressed with the forecast for next week and its rain chances. A storm that will be cut off from the main jet stream looks like it might get suppressed to our south. That would mean yet another system that promised to provide a little rain could just miss us entirely around next Tuesday or Wednesday. 

Sound familiar?

Other potential weather fronts coming after that look like they might be under-perform as well. Long range forecasts taking us into the beginning of October also paint a dry picture for Vermont and surrounding areas.

This drought has gotten incredibly frustrating, persistent, damaging and depressing.  I honestly wonder when it will even really rain again.  

Drought Keeps Intensifying In And Around Vermont; Getting Dangerous

A brown hayfield and brown sugar maple leaves in
the background Wednesday near Woodstock, Vermont
as drought continues to intensify. 

 I traveled back and forth between St. Albans in northwest Vermont, and Woodstock in the southeast on Wednesday. 

Our no longer so green Green Mountains scared me a bit. 

I know it's September and you normally see hints of fall colors in the landscape this time of year. But what I saw looked...... scorched. 

On many hillsides, the drought has prematurely turned leaves brown, as if exposed to a nearby fire. 

Underneath those trees, a slight breeze Wednesday afternoon brought down some of those desiccated leaves. Each one landed with a soft, faint dusty clatter on dirt roads, driveways, sidewalks and such. 

Each footstep on walking trails and paths stirred up a bit of dust.  We know the forest fire danger has been high for some time now.  But this drought is getting so intense, I'm beginning to worry about what will happen later this autumn when we get the strong, dry blasts of wind we always get later in September through November. 

We could see wildland fires like we've never seen before. 

Vermont is known for having "asbestos forests."  It's really hard to set them ablaze, at least normally. 

If our forests manage to catch fire, those blazes tend to be relatively small and are extinguished comparatively easily. Flames don't roar through the tree tops. They crackle close to the ground. 

Lots of brown, drought-stricken trees visible on 
this hillside near Quechee, Vermont Wednesday. 

Vermont forests are traditionally too moist, the humidity in the air is too high, and fallen logs and trees are too soggy to support much in the way of flames. 

We don't have those flammable conifers forests of the American West or the blow torch eucalyptus and palm trees that fuel California conflagrations. 

Now, though, climate change is changing the game here in Vermont, as it is virtually everywhere.

What was once almost unthinkable is turning possible. 

Extremes have gotten wild, and we blast from one extreme to the other. After two summers of destructive floods, we're now in a drought more intense than seen in decades, if ever. 

Our asbestos forests are turning into matchsticks. 

I worry that we'll have some super intense Vermont forest fires, the kind that roar through the tree tops like you see on the news when the western United States goes up in flames. I'm not saying that will happen.  I'm saying it's become an improbable possibility. 

It happened in New Jersey last year.  It's been known to happen in places like Maine, in the 1940s, and in Quebec.  We in Vermont might not be prepared for what might be coming, beyond the dry wells, water shortages, damaged crops and struggles with snow making in the ski industry. 

DROUGHT MONITOR NEWS 

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor came out this morning as usual. It shows a still-worsening situation in Vermont, despite some rain last weekend. 

All of Vermont is in drought, of course. It's one of four states - the others being Washington, Utah and Arizona, - in which 100 percent of each state's territory is in at least moderate drought. 

Drought continues to deepen in Vermont, according
to this week's U.S. Drought Monitor.
The more vivid orange is severe drought,
the lighter orange is moderate drought. 

Severe drought has expanded in Vermont, now covering more than half of Vermont, compared to a third of the state last week.  

The severe drought designation covers a much broader section of central Vermont than last week, and also a good chunk of the Northeast Kingdom. 

A spot of extreme drought has cropped up in west central New Hampshire, right near the Vermont border, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. 

Under extreme drought conditions, stream flow is reduced to a thin trickle or stops altogether, many wells go dry, dairy farms struggle financially, crop losses mount and well drillers and water haulers have more business than they can handle. 

Based on weather forecast, I think parts of Vermont are heading for the extreme drought category in coming weeks, unless we are very pleasantly and very surprised by rainfall. 

THE FORECAST

The weather forecast continues to be discouraging and frightening for our region. In other words, the rain dances so far aren't working. 

In the short term, today and Friday will continue the dry weather. The forest fire danger is high for the rest of today, as has so often been the case lately. 

We'd feared the fire danger would be even scarier today, but winds will be somewhat lighter than expectations were a few days ago. Though the air will be dry, the humidity will be slightly higher than in recent days. Dew points will be in the 50s instead of the 40s. Slightly higher humidity nudges the fire risk downward.  

Also there might be some clouds in the sky this afternoon as a weak cold front comes through. That front might even kick off an isolated sprinkle in one or two spots, but don't hold your breath on that one. 

The air will turn dry and clear again tonight and Friday.  There might even be a frost risk again in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom around dawn Friday. 

Predictions have changed some for this weekend. A few days ago, we thought Saturday and Sunday would bring absolutely no rain,

Now, a little light rain does seem to be in the cards.  Any rain is wonderful, but the anticipated showers this weekend will only temporarily slow the pace at which the drought is deepening. 

There's still some questions as to how much rain we'll get, but most forecasts call for light amounts. A few places might not get anything at all. A small minority of computer-generated forecasts call for a good half inch, but most meteorologist are discounting that idea.

Instead, it looks like a package of weak disturbances will blow through, flinging showers here and there, especially Saturday night and Sunday.  Rainfall looks like it will be a quarter inch or less. Probably less.

After that, it's back to dry weather. To break or even bruise the drought a bit, we need frequent, soaking rains. A drenching storm once every three days or so would be ideal. That's not in the cards. 

Instead, strong, dry high pressure will probably park itself over northern New England again next week.  A weak coastal low might try to send moisture our way, but it will likely get shunted off to our south. 

It still looks like our next shot at rain would be around September 19 or 20. From this distance, early indications are that system would also be on the weak side. The overall weather pattern through the end of the month and quite possibly beyond continues to look sadly dry. 

The Vermont Drought Has Gotten Much Worse

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor says all of
Vermont is now in drought.  Parts of the 
the state have been moved from
moderate to severe drought 
Severe drought is the brighter
shade of orange in this map. 

The drought in Vermont has gone statewide and has deepened, according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. 

Every last corner of the state is now in drought, compared to a little more than half the state in last week's report. 

 Last week, northwest and southwest Vermont were just "abnormally dry" a sort of precursor to drought.  Now, everyone in Vermont is officially experiencing drought.   

Even worse, parts of Vermont went from "moderate" drought to "severe" drought. Those severe areas are across central and northeastern parts of the state.

Typically, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, severe droughts cause fill kills, wildlife moves to farms, trees become brittle and susceptible to insects, groundwater is declining and irrigation ponds go dry.   

The worsening drought situation comes despite some rainfall in northern Vermont.  That rainfall wasn't particularly heavy, and was followed by more dry weather with low humidity. 

The rest of northern New England has gotten worse, too.  Half of New Hampshire is now in severe drought for the first time in this long dry spell. The severe drought zone in the Granite State is across the northern half of the state.

In Maine, severe drought spread from the coastline to across almost the entire southern half of the state. 

This has truly been a flash drought, one that develops within weeks instead of months. It's incredible  that we went from super soggy in early June to deepening drought by early to mid August. And that drought is clearly getting worse.

Despite a somewhat encouraging forecast tonight through Saturday. 

As I noted in this morning's post, we at least have some rain coming over the next few days. That's especially good since today's weather is basically a hot, dry blowdryer, with arid air, gusty winds and strong sunshine at least until late afternoon. 

Updated forecasts indicate much of Vermont could receive more than an inch of rain by late Saturday night. That's a slight improvement over earlier forecasts. However, the least amount of rain still looks like it will be eastern Vermont, which needs the rain the most. 

Most of Vermont has had four inches less rain than it should have over the past 60 days, so even an inch of rain won't help that much. Especially since little rain is expected in Vermont for at least a week, probably more, after the rain we do get over the next couple of days. 

RAINFALL STATS SHOCKING

We have more details on Vermont rainfall during meteorological summer, which ran from June 1 through August 31.  As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington tells us, we went from super soaker summers in 2023 and 2024 to dry faucets this year.  

Montpelier just had its driest summer with just 5.45 inches of rain. Last year, Montpelier had its third wettest summer, with 17.02 inches of rain. The disastrous summer of 2023 in Montpelier was their wettest summer, with 22.72 inches. 

Montpelier's records go back to 1948 

St. Johnsbury really takes the cake for most extremes between years. Last summer, they had 29.67 inches of rain, by far the most precipitation in a single summer.

Just one year later, here in 2025, St. Johnsbury had its second driest summer with just 5.22 inches of rain. St. Johnsbury has a very long continuous period of record, too. They started keeping climate stats there in 1894. 

September isn't off to a good start. The long term pattern suggests potential continued dry weather through the season.  Time to really start hoping for some soaking nor'easters. 

Drought Officially Spreads Into Vermont; Expands, Worsens In Northeast

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released this 
morning, has a little more than a third of 
Vermont (orange shading) is in drought.
The rest of the state (yellow) is
regarded as "abnormally dry" which
is just barely short of drought conditions

 The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor has made it official: 

Parts of Vermont are now in drought, and drought is expanding - and worsening - in northern New England,.

Roughly a third of Vermont is in moderate drought, most in the Connecticut River Valley and central Vermont. 

The entire rest of the state is "abnormally dry" so none of us are in good shape.  A week earlier, the northern Champlain Valley was technically not "abnormally dry" but it really kinda was. 

This really is a flash drought, which is one that comes on in a matter of weeks, rather than the months it often takes for such a dry spell to develop. 

During the week of July 29, no place in Vermont was regarded as abnormally dry.  Then, a week later, 72 percent of Vermont was abnormally dry.  That went up to 87 percent last week. Now, this week all of the state is abnormally dry with that third of the state in drought. 

Drought continue to deepen in nearby states. Fully 85 percent of New Hampshire is in drought, up from just 12 percent last week. 

The drought is deepening in Maine, too. About 41 percent of the state is in at least moderate drought. This week, the U.S. Drought Monitor upgraded the dryness along much of the seacoast to "severe drought."

The weather outlook isn't great. It's going to stay dry for the next three days. Some fairly decent rains might come through New England Sunday and Monday, but it won't be nearly enough to end the drought. It might barely dent it. 

Beyond Monday the overall weather pattern heading into September favors mostly dry weather. This drought came on ridiculously fast, but it's not going to go away anytime soon. 

Closely Watched Monitor Says Vermont On Cusp Of Drought, But It's Probably Already Started In Some Respects

These trees along Interstate 89 in Colchester, Vermont
turned brown and wilted for lack of moisture during
the hot, dry weather we've had recently. 

 The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor came out today, and technically, we're not in drought here in Vermont, but for all practical purposes, we are. 

It's a developing flash drought, meaning it's setting in within a matter of weeks instead of several months like a "traditional" drought. 

As of this morning, the U.S. Drought Monitor said 87 percent of Vermont was "abnormally dry" up from 72 percent last week and absolute no place in the Green Mountain State the year before.

Abnormally dry is a designation the Drought Monitor gives when a region is on the cusp of a drought, and things are drying up too much. But it's not a declared drought. 

The only part of Vermont not regarded as "abnormally dry" in today's update is the Champlain Valley, which generally had a wetter July than the rest of the state. 

Even so,  the dry, hot weather weather of recent weeks has left its mark in the valley. I traveled between Burlington and St. Albans along Interstate 89 this morning and saw a lot of wilted, brown or yellow trees where the soil is thin atop rock ledges. Those spots dry out first, and the soil completely ran out of moisture to feed those trees during out recent "Death Valley Days" arid heat wave.  

In the entire Northeast region, which encompasses an area from West Virginia and Maryland up to Maine, 44.6 percent of the region was abnormally dry Thursday, up from 17 percent a week earlier. Coastal Maine and New Hampshire, and parts of western New York, have fallen into drought. 

Back here in Vermont, signs of the increasingly dry conditions are noticeable everywhere. Lawns have gone from green to brown within days. 

Lake Champlain is continuing a rapid drop. It was down to right around 94 feet this morning, down from 95.3 feet just a month ago 

There have already been a number of reports of boat groundings at Hogback Reef and Colchester Shoal between Burlington and Malletts Bay in Colchester.

Forest fire danger remained high in much of Vermont today, though it temporarily fell to moderate in the Green Mountains, which saw some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. 

Aside from isolated showers south and east this afternoon, and mostly light showers Sunday, the immediate forecast is for continued dry weather here in Vermont. The last seven-day precipitation forecast issued this afternoon, calls for as much a half inch of rain over the next seven days in northern Vermont, to less than a tenth of an inch in the far south. 

On average, Vermont receives roughly an inch of rain per week. 

Drought Worsens In Vermont/Northeast As Expected

We're keeping tabs on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, and the latest one came out this morning. 

As expected, abnormally dryness and drought
expanded in Vermont in the past week due to
a continuing lack of precipitation. A small
area of southern Vermont was upgraded
from moderate to severe drought. 

As expected, drought in the Northeast, including here in Vermont worsened a little more as the rain continues to fail us. 

The nation as a whole improved slightly from last week, thanks mostly to rain and snow in the middle of the nation and in the southeastern Rockies. 

Last week about 88 percent of the nation was abnormally dry. Now it's 83 percent, which is still ridiculously high. 

The Northeast once again got little rain in the past week, and it's showing. 

Almost the entire Northeast, a region extending from West Virginia to Maine, is at least abnormally dry if not in drought, with only five percent of the region still being deemed not excessively dry. 

The area under actual drought ticked up a little, from a little more than 56 percent of the region last week 58 percent this week.

New Jersey and Massachusetts seem to be doing the worst at the moment. In New Jersey, more than a quarter of the state is in extreme drought. The entire state is in severe drought, the first time in this dry episode New Jersey has gotten that designation. 

Last week, only about a third of Massachusetts was in severe drought. Now it's two thirds of the state.  

VERMONT WORSE, TOO

Virtually the entire Northeast is abnormally
dry or in drought with little rain in the forecast.

Here in Vermont, more than 77 percent of the state is now regarding as at least abnormally dry, up sharply from 64 percent last week. The only area barely hanging on to adequate soil moisture is most of the Champlain Valley. 

The drought area in southern Vermont has remained about the same size since last week.  However, the U.S. Drought Monitor upgraded a small area of the state near the Massachusetts border from moderate drought to severe drought. 

The upgrade means that area is now even more susceptible to problems with ground water shortages and dry irrigation ponds. Trees would be drier and more brittle, too, making them more susceptible to burning up in a wildfire. 

FORECAST

We still seem to have an anti-rain force field over the Northeast that shows no signs of going away. A fairly narrow zone across the Northeast between western New York and Pennsylvania and eastern Maine looks like they'll have very little rain over the next seven days. 

Any place that gets a quarter inch in that time period will be lucky. Most places will see less. 

I guess we're going to keep seeing news of wildfires, even as winter rapidly closes in. 

Not Just East Coast, Nation Having Super Dry October, Drought Expanding

October has been remarkably dry in the United States
and it's showing. Every area in yellow is abnormally
dry, and all areas in various shades of orange 
are currently in drought.

 According to the latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, half of the Lower 48 is now in drought, up from just 20 percent three months ago.  

 Eighty percent of the nation is at least abnormally dry, if not in drought. That's up from a little less than half the Lower 48 three months ago.

All this might seem strange, given how there's also been plenty of catastrophic floods lately.  

 With the exception of the Roswell, New Mexico area, virtually all those floods occurred before October arrived.  It seems like the water has been shut off.

The dry weather is certainly widespread this month. New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Birmingham, Nashville, Memphis, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Little Rock and Houston are among the many places that had no rain in October, at least through Wednesday.  

Climatologist Brian Brettschneider said at two thirds of the way through October, the Lower 48 was on pace to have its second driest month on record. Only October, 1952 was drier. That is, of course, if it stays dry. 

At least part of every state in the Lower 48 is regarded as abnormally dry, if not in drought. 

For the final week of the month, forecasts hint at somewhat wetter times for some areas of the United States, but certainly not all of them. The Pacific Northwest looks like it will be wet for the rest of the month, and some areas of the Midwest and near the Great Lakes could see some decent, but not overwhelming rains by Halloween. 

But other areas will stay dry. That includes much of the eastern United States

DRY NORTHEAST

Drought and abnormally dryness indeed expanded in the Northeast this week compared to last, but not as much as I would have guessed, given the continued lack of rain, the U.S. Drought Monitor said Thursday. (They regard the Northeast as everything from West Virginia and Maryland up through Maine).  

Despite as dry autumn, northern Vermont is still
OK in terms of groundwater and such. Southern
Vermont is regarded as abnormally dry
with a small area of drought in the far
southern part of the state.

Nearly two-thirds of the region was in drought or at least abnormally dry as of Thursday, up about three percentage points since last week. 

Here in Vermont, things remained virtually unchanged since last week, with the southern third of the state regarded as abnormally dry and a small area straddling Bennington and Windham  counties in far southern parts of the state in drought.

Ground moisture and such remained adequate in the northern two thirds of the Green Mountain State, despite the lack of huge amounts of rain. 

 Repeated light rainfalls in northern Vermont in September and October, following a very wet summer has kept us in fairly good shape for now. 

The rainfall outlook through Halloween is unimpressive. Most of the Mid-Atlantic states and southern half of New England are forecast to remain rain-free through October 31, while northern New England is in for a trace to a quarter inch of rain as we go through the remainder of the month. 

There are hints of a pattern change that could make things somewhat wetter in the Northeast as we head into November, but that remains to be seen. 

At least we're not getting flooded out here in Vermont for a change, right? 

Drenching Vermont Rains Blunted A Building Dry Spell

A rainy September Thursday in downtown St. Albans,
Vermont. Drenching rains ended a dry spell in
the Green Mountain State that lasted more than two weeks. 

 The rainstorm that swept Vermont Wednesday and especially Thursday will go a long way toward blunting conditions that were threatening to get too dry. 

The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, put the southern third to half of Vermont in the "abnormally dry' category, a precursor to drought.  Soil moistures were still regarded as adequate in northern and central Vermont. 

Drought was physically on our doorstep, too. A stripe of central New Hampshire all the way to the Connecticut River was declared in "moderate" drought.

The rain this week ended a 16-day dry spell for most of the Green Mountain State. 

All of Vermont saw rain but unfortunately for southern Vermont, the heaviest of it fell mostly in the north. Pretty much all of the state saw at least an inch of rain, except much of the southernmost two counties. 

The most rain reported by far was in Johnson, with 3.7 inches. The downpours might have made some residents of the flood prone town nervous, but they were in absolutely no danger. The Lamoille River in Johnson rose from a very low two feet deep or so to a harmless 4.5 feet. That, by the way is more than nine feet below minor flood stage. 

Elsewhere, Worcester has 2.28 inches and Jericho reported 2.26.  Burlington totaled out at 1.81 inches. Here in St. Albans, I had a solid 1.1 inches of new rain, 

The rain this week in Vermont caused a few problems, mostly on the roads. People have apparently forgotten how to drive on the roads, so there were a few slide offs and accidents. Two separate crashes briefly closed sections of Interstate 89 near Colchester and a little south of St. Albans on Thursday. 

Looking ahead, there's not much rain in the forecast for several days, so I'm glad the landscape had a chance to drink up on Thursday.   The next chance of rain is probably on Tuesday night or Wednesday. Early guesses is we could get a meh total of about a half inch of rain around then. 

The remnants of deadly Hurricane Helene are still expected to have no effect on us here in Vermont .

It'll stay on the warm side through Tuesday. It will cool off thereafter, but I still so far don't see  any signs of widespread frost, which we can easily get this time of year.  

No Drought Worries Yet In Vermont As Long Dry Spell Continues

For the first time this year, the grass on parts of my yard
in St. Albans, Vermont is getting brown thanks to a long
dry spell. You can also see a hose leading past the frame
to the raised beds down the hill.

 In almost the entire state of Vermont, it's now been a week and a half without a drop of rain. 

You've probably had to water any lingering plants  you want to preserve into the autumn. 

For the first time this year, I've noticed a few brown or at least brownish areas on some lawns, including a few spots on mine here in St. Albans. 

The lack of rain is still absolutely nothing to worry about, unless this goes on for weeks or months. Which I doubt will happen. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor, which comes out every Thursday, still doesn't show any drought in the Green Mountain State. 

The drought monitor has a five-point scale to describe levels of dryness in an area. The lowest level is "abnormally dry," which isn't quite drought but indicates an area that is at risk for one. 

Then the scale goes upward to moderate drought, then "severe", "extreme" and the worst cast scenario "exceptional."

This dry spell has had the "abnormally dry" category beginning to take shape and expand in parts of New England. About 25 percent of  both Maine and New Hampshire is abnormally dry. 

For the first time this year, a tiny sliver of Vermont is now "abnormally dry" according to the newest U.S. Drought Monitor released yesterday. 

That "abnormally dry" area encompasses just 0.72 percent of Vermont. It's just a tiny area around White River Junction.  At the start of summer, in June, about half of the Green Mountain State was abnormally dry, but that quickly went down to zero with our exceptionally wet summer. 

Just a teeny, tiny sliver of Vermont (in yellow) is now
considered "abnormally dry" by the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Rainfall for the year overall is still ahead of average. As of Thursday, Burlington has still had 2.58 inches more rain than usual for the year up to this point. Montpelier is running about 3.5 inches ahead of normal for the year so far.   

With a continued lack of rain in the forecast for the next few days, I think next week's U.S. Drought Monitor will expand the "abnormally dry" category in Vermont, we'll wait and see on that. 

Under the "abnormally dry" category, lawns start to turn brown, gardens wilt and the fire danger becomes elevated. 

Already, the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation says the southern half of Vermont has a high fire risk.  The rest of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom has a moderate fire risk. 

I'd be careful with those late season camp fires. 

We might actually get a sprinkle in one or two spots today and Saturday, but that won't amount to anything. The vast majority of us will stay dry. 

There are signs of a change in the weather pattern that would bring somewhat wetter conditions to Vermont starting the middle of next week. So far at least, I'm not super impressed by how much rain those models are indicating. 

But it's a long way off, so I can't really say whether we'll get a good soaker in about a week, or just more spritzes and sprinklers.