Last Week's Rain Didn't Ease Vermont Drought, Says Weekly Report

The new weekly U.S. Drought Report issued
this morning is unchanged from last week.
Red in central Vermont is extreme drought.
The orange covering almost all the rest
of the state depicts severe drought. 

Lately, many of us have waited with bated breath to see the weekly Thursday U.S. Drought Report to find out how badly our big drought is punishing Vermont.  

The one that came out this morning show us last week's rain didn't help at all with the drought. 

On the bright side, things didn't get worse, either. Instead, drought conditions in Vermont are exactly the same as the week before. 

The same zone of extreme drought covers central Vermont. Most of the rest of the state is in severe drought, just like the week before.

Also like the previous week, only the extreme northwest and southeast corners of the state are "merely" in moderate drought. 

Drought conditions were also unchanged in most of the rest of New England, with the worst conditions in central Vermont, central New Hampshire in southern Maine. 

The Drought Monitor people explain it this way:

"In New England, heavier rains of mostly one to locally four inches were only enough to put the brakes on the developing drought, as streamflows decreased substantially after the event and rains struggled to infiltrate deeper into soils. Additionally, significant short-term rainfall deficits still exist in many areas despite the rain."

One way to look at it is to see what happened to Lake Champlain after the rain. If soil moisture had been adequate, last week's rain would have created more runoff and rivers would have risen noticeably. The Lake Champlain lake level would have also risen by perhaps a few inches.  

Instead, the lake level only went from 93.03 inches to 93.13 inches. That's barely a blip and still a remarkably low lake level. As of Wednesday, it was back down to 93.07 feet. 

The Drought Monitor measures conditions as of Tuesday, two days before the report is released. It hasn't rained in Vermont since last Friday, and no rain is in the forecast until at least Tuesday. So, chances are, the drought will go back to its worsening trend after this week.

As you'd expect, Vermont and surrounding areas are still increasingly suffering from this drought.  

According to Vermont Public, the state's Department of Environmental Conservation has received reports of more than 400 wells running dry since August. That's four times as many as they received from 2016 to 2025. 

About 40 percent of Vermonters get their water from a private well. But information on what share of that total is from spring-fed wells or dug wells. 

Drilling a new well can cost $20,000, and there's little public assistance for people who need a new well. This is turning into a financial crisis as well as a water crisis for many Vermont households. 

Vermont ski areas are warily watching the drought, WPTZ reports. At Sugarbush in Warren, the snowmaking ponds have enough water to start the season. But the resort relies on the Mad River to withdraw water for snowmaking. The river has to be above a certain level for that to happen. Right now, the river is far too low to allow the resort to pull water from it. 

Sugarbush officials are hoping some good late autumn rains arrive to fill up the Mad River, and the snowmaking ponds. 

Jay Peak has invested in snowmaking equipment that uses less water than old systems but makes about the same amount of snow. 

Climate change overall is making New England wetter. But paradoxically, droughts are worsening, too. 

Much of the rain we do get comes in short, sharp, extreme events, and the long, slow wet periods we used to see are less frequent. For instance, almost all the Vermont rain in September fell in just four or five days. 

Also, weather patterns seem to be getting "stuck" one way or another, wet or dry, for longer periods. The climate is warmer than it used to be, too. Warmer weather tends to increase evaporation, allowing droughts to develop more quickly and become more severe. 

That's what happened in Vermont this year. The drought started developing in July, one of the warmest on record. Then it abruptly, seriously deepened in mid-August amid a record breaking and extraordinarily arid heat wave.

September was also very warm and dry, which exacerbated things even further. October is opening the same way - warm and dry.  

Long range forecasts offer us Vermonters little encouragement. It still looks like an occasional series of light rainfalls might start around October 9, but so far, each "storm" looks modest and would do little if anything to ease the drought. 

Among Jane Goodall's Many Lasting Legacies Is Advocacy For A Sustainable Earth, Climate Change Solutions

Practicing what she preached: During Jane
Goodall's September visit to New York City
for Climate Week, she got around town
on an environmentally friendly 
Pedicab.  Goodall passed away
Wednesday at age 91. 

As you've almost surely heard already, the world lost a Great One Wednesday. Jane Goodall, the famous  primatologist, anthropologist, conservationist, media figure and one of the best women to ever grace this Earth, passed away at the age of 91.  

A big part of Goodall's advocacy was creating and keeping a sustainable planet for all creatures. Climate change might have seemed tangental to Goodall's mission, but it was a critical part of it.   

For Goodall, it wasn't just about keep the world safe and clean and stable for chimpanzees. She had all animals - including us humans - in her heart. 

In a 2019 ABC interview, she said climate change has left the planet imperiled. "We are definitely at a point where we need to make something happen... We are imperiled. We have a window of time. I'm fairly sure we do. But, we've got to take action," she said. 

Her advocacy lasted until the very end. Goodall was on a speaking tour in California this week and died of natural causes. Retirement had never really crossed her mind. 

Just recently, on September 21-28, she attended New York Climate Week  during which she gave interviews to publications like Forbes, the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg regarding the natural world and our need to preserve it. 

She has acknowledged that people have come to her "depressed" 'about climate change and other environmental dangers. But she responded with a message of courage.

On her Facebook page from Climate Week, Goodall said the climate crisis is the greatest challenge of our time, but change is still possible if we act with courage and hope.  

Alway finding ways to be a good example, Goodall got around New York City when visiting there by hiring Pedicabs, which are carriages powered by drivers propelling the vehicles via bicycle. 

Vox highlighted recent interviews in which Goodall gave a plug for literally saving Earth from excessive technology, the worst excesses of business interests and - of course - climate change. 

According to Vox:  

"'It seems these days everybody is so involved with technology that we forgot that we're not only part of the natural world, we're an animal like all the others,' Goodall, founder of the Jane Goodall Institute, a conservation group, said last week during the Forbes Sustainability Leaders Summit in NYC. 'We're an animal like all the others. But we depend on it for clean air, water, food, clothing -everything.'

And yet - 'We're destroying the planet,' she said.

Vox noted that as recently as last week, she said we know what's killing the planet: Industrial agriculture, including livestock and burning fossil fuels. 

People magazine noted that Goodall acknowledged that caring for humans and the environment is "a tough problem" as she put it. But she believed solutions were out there.

"We've got to get together," she said. "And scientists are beginning now to really work out the technology that can help us live in greater harmony with the natural world....But it's a problem that should be at the heart of everything. It should be at the heart of politics, and it should be at the heart of business."

At her core, Goodall was an optimist, a rarity in our fraught world nowadays. I suspect she saw how animals often ingeniously figure things out. She had confidence that the creatures known as humans could do the same if we could just learn to understand that advancement isn't necessarily just bulldozing through everything. 

Goodall taught me and I'm sure countless others to look at all animals with awe and wonder, and, ultimately, understanding. In large part because of Goodell, I frequently stop and watch the animals and birds I encounter as they live their lives.   

I observe how nothing goes to waste in the animal world, that everything has its purpose, there are important symbiotic relationships between species, and that we also need to take a moment to play, and find joy. (If you've ever seen a bear cub in action, you know what I'm talking about).  

Goodall was a joyful warrior on a quest to teach us (sometimes dumb) humans that we can find ways to live in a world that sustains us all. To the end, she had faith that we would somehow find a way to make it happen. Wrestling climate change to submission is a big part of that. 

Her thinking on this might seem naive and pollyann-ish. But Goodall was far, far too smart to indulge in optimistic fantasies. 

She spend a lifetime watching and researching and loving the animal kingdom and all the wonderful things they do.

If chimpanzees can do it, so can us humans.  Where others saw defeatism, Goodall saw possibility. Of all the incredible things Goodall did in her 91 years, her sense of hope is her greatest legacy.   

UPDATE: Frost Advisory Upgraded To Freeze Warning In Much Of Vermont

A frost advisory that was in effect has been upgraded
to a freeze warning for much of Vermont away 
from the Champlain Valley. The valley continues
to be under a frost advisory. 

 The frost advisory that was in effect for the majority of Vermont has been upgraded to a freeze warning.

Expected lows early Thursday morning away from Lake Champlain will be a tad cooler than first thought, which means it'll get to or a bit below 32 degrees by dawn in much of the Green Mountain State.  

Such temperatures are not at all unusual for early October, but it's been so warm that a lot of people still have outdoor plants they want to protect.

So, it's back to digging out those old sheets to cover everything you want to save this evening. And hope for the best.

The big garden coverup should happen in the Champlain Valley as well. 

A frost advisory is still in effect there, which means temperatures should get perilously close to 32 degrees there. Remember, even if it's 34 or 35 degrees five feet off the ground where you'll read your thermometer, you can still get frost at your feet, where you lingering tomato and cucumber and flower plants are. 

There's still two places in Vermont without a freeze or frost alert. One of them is the Northeast Kingdom. The growing season is considered over up there. So there's no point in issuing a freeze warning there. 

Still, if you live up that way and were trying to hang on to outdoor plants, try covering them up. Better yet, bring 'em indoors if you can because most tender plants don't survive temperatures in the upper 20s.

The other spot escaping the frost advisory is Grand Isle County. It's surrounded by Lake Champlain, so the still warm waters of the lake should radiate a bit onto the county, keeping temperatures a bit above the level that you can get frost. 

It wasn't actually that cold this afternoon, so you'd think we'd escape an overnight frost. Temperatures were in the upper 50s to near 60 in most places. But that breeze we've had will diminish to calm. Skies will be clear all night. Daytime humidity was low. All those ingredients set us up for those temperatures to plummet overnight. 

Another thing to watch out for is locally dense fog early in the morning. Lord knows there's not much moisture in the ground to contribute to any fog. But the low rivers, ponds and lakes should be enough to create fog in the river valleys early tomorrow. 

You'll want to get a bit of an early start if you have to leave before, near or just after dawn tomorrow. You'll need to scrape the ice off your windshield, and you'll have to drive slowly through those dense fog patches. 

Tomorrow will be another nice, sunny, day, a little warmer than today. There's still a risk of scattered frost tomorrow night, but it won't be as widespread as what we'll get tonight. 

A big warm up is coming this weekend and early next week, so if your gardens survive tonight, they'll have a little October life in them yet. 

A Beautiful September In Vermont Makes Drought Worse; Climate Data Is In

Despite a couple rain storms, precipitation was once
again below normal in September, so the drought
worsened. Pictured is low Lake Champlain water
as seen at St. Albans Bay, Vermont Sept. 22.

If it weren't for the drought, September was a beautiful weather month in Vermont. Lots of sunny days, comfortable temperatures, all great for outdoor activity. 

Unless of course you were trying to save your wilted garden, or watch the leaves on your trees turn brow and curled and fall off ahead of foliage season. 

This kind of weather stayed consistent all month.

PRECIPITATION 

September was a dry month in Vermont, but not as dry as you'd might think, given how the drought kept getting worse.  

The drought worsened in large part because any rain we did get fell in two short bursts, one around September 5-6 and the other mostly from September 24-25. The rest of the month was bone dry. 

Although September is usually a relatively sunny, pleasant month in Vermont, we almost always get a few periods of gray, drizzly weather that can last nearly a week. Those kinds of conditions prevent things from drying out too fast. 

This year, September instead featured day after day of sunny skies

Burlington had 2.89 inches of rain, which was about three quarters of an inch below normal. Most of northern Vermont was about an inch on the dry side. Which means it wasn't among the driest on record, which was a nice change from August. But still we needed more rain than we got.  

Southwest Vermont was drier. Rutland received about two inches of rain during the month, which was 1.36 inches below normal. Bennington was worse, receiving just 1.37 inches of rain  during September. That was about 2.5 inches on the light side. 

Woodstock in the southeast was actually a tad wetter than normal in September with 3.9 inches. However, all except a third of an inch of that came on September 24-26. 

A new weekly Drought Monitor report is due out tomorrow. That one will take into account the rain last week. However, most observers do not expect much improvement in the drought conditions, 

TEMPERATURES 

The overall mean temperature in Burlington was 64.1 degrees, or 1.4 degrees warmer than normal.  That doesn't sound like it was all that much on the toasty side, but remember, as I remind you every month, is the "new normal."

It's based on the average of temperatures from 1990 to 2020, a time at which climate change had already  made things warmer than then were in the 20th century. 

As it was, September, 2025 was tied for the tenth warmest on record in Burlington. That's part of a trend. There are 15 Septembers in the top 10 list of hottest Septembers in Burlington. Including this year  nine of the top 15 warmest have happened since 2011. 

There weren't really any extremes in September. We saw no record highs or record lows to speak of. Just steady warm nights and somewhat chilly nights. 

That's where that weirdness comes in 

The drought also helped make September temperatures a bit odd: Daily high temperatures were much warmer than normal, and daily low temperatures were near or even a little cooler than normal.

That's because on so many days, the air was unusually dry, the humidity was low. On such days, the sun heats up the air more than when it's humid. But muggy nights stay warm, while the temperature craters on drier nights. 

That's what kept happening in September. In Burlington, the average high temperature or 75.2 degrees was 2.6 degrees, but the average low temperature of 53 was just 0.1 degrees above normal -basically average under the "new normal."

In St. Johnsbury and Rutland, the daily low temperature in September was more than a degree cooler than normal, though highs in both towns were three to four degrees on the warm side. 

There were no truly cool days like we normally get in September. The coldest high temperature of the month this September was 63 degrees.  I could only find one other year with a warmer "coldest" day. That was 64 degrees in 2023.

Interestingly over the past decade, the coldest September high temperature in Burlington was at or above 60 degrees on seven out of ten years. But such days were rare before that. Between 1900 and 2002, all Septembers except two had days with highs in the 50s. Or even 40s in some years. 

I say this every month, as well, but I'll say it again: This is not your grandfather's Vermont climate, that's for sure. 

As noted in this morning's post, October is getting off to a relatively brisk start, but the overall warm trend will return within a couple days. It looks like it might stay generally warm through most of the first half of October. We shall see! 

The really bad news is it looks like it will stay drier than normal through at least the first half of October, too. The drought won't be going anywhere. 

Fire And Frost Again In Vermont, Fire Risk To Last Longer

Leaves are coming off the trees, like these maples
near Richmond, Vermont on Tuesday. The leaf
litter is adding to the fire risk that the 
Vermont drought has created. 

Henry the Weather Dog, a native of Texas, didn't stay outside nearly as long as he usually does when he went outdoors early in the morning. 

He didn't like the temperatures near 40 degrees here in St. Albans, especially considering the chilly north breeze bringing wind chills into the 30s.  It doesn't bode well for winter, but we'll deal with it. 

Those chilly breezes are a sign that frost and a higher fire danger are back to harass us in Vermont. 

FIRE DANGER

The strongest breezes today will be in the Champlain Valley, due to the funneling effect of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks. Those gusts should go at at least 25 mph. The skies will stay clear, and the relative humidity will drop to around 30 percent. 

There are a lot more dried, dead leaves on the ground than there was in mid-September, so there's more fuel for any fire starts. The wind and low humidity will make any fires that start spread fast. 

The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement alerting the public to the fire danger. 

The fire danger is very high today in
western Vermont and the lower 
Connecticut River valley, and
high elsewhere in the state today.

The fire danger is high all over Vermont, of course, but the states's Forests, Parks and Recreation department lists the danger as very high west of the Green Mountains and in the lower Connecticut River valley and high elsewhere.  

The risk of fires will keep going at least through Monday, as sunny skies and dry air will continue through the weekend. 

Winds will be lighter, so fires that start might not spread as quickly as it would if it stayed windy. But you'll surely see reports of new brush fires here and there in and near Vermont. 

You'll need to be especially careful with fire for the foreseeable future.

FROST RISK AGAIN

As mentioned it was chilly this morning.  Most of us got down well into the 30s, with some temperatures near 40 near Lake Champlain. 

It won't warm up all that much this afternoon.  It's the first day of October, and fittingly, it'll be a classic autumn day. That breeze will add to the crispness of the air. 

High temperatures will only reach the 50s with maybe a few low 60s in southern Vermont valleys. That'll be the chilliest day of the year so far, which isn't saying much. It's been warm lately, so today's weather seems cold. But the expected highs today aren't at all odd for the beginning of October.  (I'll have a complete climate summary for September in a post later today).  

Today's brisk weather will set us up for a frosty night. A frost advisory is in effect for all of Vermont overnight and early Thursday except for Grand Isle County and the Northeast Kingdom. 

The lack of any frost of freeze alerts in the Northeast Kingdom is because the growing season is considering over up that way, so there's no need for such alerts

A warming trend will start tomorrow, but it will still be a little cool, with highs in the 58 to 65 degree rage

But that warming trend means business. By Sunday and Monday, warmer valleys could reach 80 degrees. That will bring us close to record highs for this time of year. 

There's a chance of showers in about a week from now, but whatever comes along won't be impressive and won't solve the drought. It will also probably turn much colder again in about a week. Summer is over, after all.