Surprising Cause Of Sea Level Rise: We're Pumping Out All The Groundwater

Giant aquifers, like those depicted in this map, are
rapidly being depleted by man, and that 
phenomenon has greatly influenced the
pace of sea level rise. 

When we think of the reasons behind sea level rise and climate change, the images that pop up in our heads are melting glaciers, torrents of water pouring off the Greenland ice sheet in the summer, that kind of thing. 

But one of the biggest drivers of sea level rise is coming from a surprising source: Pumping groundwater to the surface for drinking water, irrigation and industry. 

According to ProPublica:

"So much groundwater is now being pumped that it is filling the oceans as it drains off land, becoming one of the largest drivers of global sea level rise."

The result is vast parts of Earth's land masses are drying out, according to an ambitious new study.  

ProPublica goes on:

"More than anything, Earth is being slowly dehydrated by the unmitigated mining of groundwater, which underlies vast proportions of every continent. Nearly 6 billion people, or three quarters of humanity, live in the 101 countries that the study identified as confronting a net decline in water supply.  - portending enormous challenges for food production and a heightened risk of conflict and instability." 

This comes from a study led by Hrishikesh Chandanpurkar, an earth systems scientist working with Arizona State University. The research was published recently in the journal Science Advances. The study looks at most of the Earth, but excludes the fresh water ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland 

There's even more bad news in the research: The loss of water through groundwater pumping is happening as many areas are growing drier due to climate change. 

The study notes that with climate change, some areas of Earth are getting drier while others are getting wetter. However, drying regions are expanding quickly while places that have been getting wetter are shrinking. 

Deep, high quality aquifers are actually widespread, lying beneath one third of the planet. The aquifers are under about half of Africa, Europe and South Africa. They took millions of years to form and would take thousands of years to refill. 

But with us humans, a significant amount of that water is taken from underground, given over to irrigation or industry, then runs off, eventually finding its way to oceans. 

This loss of water from aquifers has gotten so great, that it is one of the largest causes of sea level rise. "Moisture lost to evaporation and drought, plus runoff from pumped groundwater, now outpaces the melting of glaciers and the ice sheets of either Antarctica or Greenland as the largest contributor of water to the oceans," ProPublica reports. 

The study was done using 22 years of data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, or GRACE satellites. Images from the satellites measure changes in th mass of the Earth and can be used to estimate its water content. 

As ProPublica reports, study co-author Jay Famiglietti has for two decades used GRACE data to determine where aquifers were declining. 

Chandanpurkar and Famiglietti began to wonder what all this meant regarding all the water available on the continents. So the study, really an inventory of all land-based water contained in glaciers, rivers and aquifers, set out to see how things were changing. 

Spoiler: It's changing fast.

For instance, scientists and water managers were well aware that aquifers in the U.S. Southwest were receding.  Their research also showed a "creeping disaster" of accelerating drying in aquifers spreading out from the Southwest into Texas, and down into Mexico. The same pattern was noted in Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and parts of Asia.  

So, draining the aquifers looms as a crisis for crops and industry, which would die out with the drying out of aquifers. Even if crops can still grow, shipping them out will be problematic, since the water from the aquifers is raising sea levels. Which floods ports and such. Not to mention important crop-growing regions like the Nile and Mekong deltas.

One the groundwater is lost to the seas, the only ways to get it back are through expensive and inefficient coastal desalination plants. Or waiting hundreds or thousands of years for rain to replenish desiccated aquifers.  

Other research that the climate change is not only warming up the air and the oceans. It's actually starting to extend its tentacles deep underground. The research says ground water is warming up as much as 40 to 50 meters (about 130 to 165 feet) underground. 

That underground warming could increase microbial production and allow chemicals such as arsenic, locked away in cold underground rocks, to get released as warming takes hold far below our feet. The warmer groundwater could also bubble up into lakes, ponds and rivers, allowing more damaging algae blooms and killing some aquatic life, as Grist reports. 

 As climate scientist Peter Gleick notes, drying out aquifers threatens global food production. And food is the foundation for stability. So don't get too smug, America. If you think we have immigration problems, brutal, often unfair and possibly illegal deportations and the political turmoil that comes with all that now, just wait until the groundwater dries up.  

Like or not food and climate refugees might well be stampeding toward our borders in the United States. No matter how many walls we throw up, or how many Executive Orders presidents declare. 

Water and the lack thereof is already contributing to war and violence, ProPublica notes. The Syrian civl war that began in 2011 started as rural unrest stemming from drought and groundwater depletion. Ukrainian wheat support much o the world, so Russia is targeting that nation's water infrastructure. 

There are things we can do to slow or even stop the groundwater depletion, the researchers said. Drip irrigation can cut water use by as much as 50 percent. Arid Israel has used that technique effectively. 

When California farmers reduced their use of Colorado River water in 2023 and 2024, Lake Mead rose by 16 feet. People in arid areas can remove lawns in favor of native plants. Cities can recycle a lot of their water.  

This is a solvable crises. But work has to start now to get this going. 

More Tornadoes, Storms In Weird Locations, But Still No Signs Of Rain Or Anything Here In Vermont

Screenshot from a video showing a large tornado in
North Dakota Sunday. The state was hit by as many
as 19 twisters yesterday. 

While we in Vermont can't even get a sprinkle of rain, weird storms have been hitting areas that are usually not particular stormy, especially this time of year. 

We had the tornadoes in Utah Saturday, which I've already mentioned in this here blog thingy.  I've got an update on that below, but first, more odd tornadoes, this time in North Dakota. 

During Sunday afternoon, a total of 22 reports of tornadoes came in, all but three of them mostly along a narrow north-south line in central parts of the state. The actual number of tornadoes will be determined by the National Weather Service.

Observers said this was probably the biggest September North Dakota tornado outbreak on record. 

The tornadoes hit sparsely populated areas, though there was damage in the tiny central North Dakota communities of Denhoff and Cannon Ball.   

The situation kept meteorologists exceptionally busy, as tornado warnings blared across central North Dakota most of the afternoon and evening.  At one point, storm chaser Brian Copic had two tornadoes in his sights: A large, wedged shaped twister and a skinnier one nearby. 

North Dakota does get tornadoes, averaging about 29 of them per year.  But we're generally past the season for twisters there. But Sunday was an exception. 

The direction of Sunday's storms was a little off, too. They headed north to northwest, not in an east or northeast that most tornadic storms travel. 

North Dakota is also not known for its heavy rain especially in the autumn.  It's in the middle of North America. Humid Gulf of Mexico or Pacific Ocean air has a lot of trouble making it that far north by September, so rainfall is usually fairly sparse. 

However,  Bismarck, North Dakota got more rain in an hour Sunday than they normally do in the entire month of September.  Just under two inches came within that hour, compared to the 1.72 inches that usually falls all month. The storm total in Bismarck Sunday was 2.44 inches.  

Not surprisingly, the city and points south were hit by widespread flash flooding. 

It's been a rough year for severe weather in North Dakota, even by their standards. Four tornadoes and 100 mph straight line winds hit areas near Grand Forks about a month ago. North Dakota also just approved for disaster assistance from damage caused by tornadoes, high winds and flooding back on June 20-21.

In Utah, two homes, two houses trailers, a hay barn and fifth-wheel trailer were destroyed in the tornado. Nobody was hurt, but several pets are missing. Two additional houses were damaged and power lines have come down. 

With Sunday's outbreak, it looks like North Dakota will have had about 60 tornadoes this year, the most there in a single year. 

VERMONT LEFT OUT

Here in Vermont, we often get the remnants of any big storms to our west. Usually in the form of some autumn rain. We could really use it, but, again, not this time. The drought stays strong. 

The Plains storm is lifting directly north into Canada and dissipating. It won't give us any rain at all. Instead, the forecast is the same as it was yesterday: It will be warm and dry through Thursday. Then, a rainless cold front will hit Friday and it will turn cool and dry. Then it will probably warm up again. 

Our next chance of rain isn't until September 25 or 26, but even that is highly uncertain. That storm might go by to our south, missing us again.  

We don't want tornadoes here, but it would be nice if one of those tornadic systems spun off a little rain our way. 

Los Angeles Wildfires In January Might Have Killed Hundreds, Not Two Or Three Dozen

The cataclysmic wildfires in and around Los Angeles
this past January officials killed 30 people, but a 
recent study suggest the real death
toll might have exceeded 400.

Data emerged this summer suggesting the death toll from the intense wildfires in and around Los Angles last January is much higher than official numbers.  

Officially, 30 people died in the conflagration that tore through Alameda, Pacific Palisades, Malibu and other densely populated areas of Los Angeles County. 

But county death records suggest the fires might have claimed an additional 440 lives. 

These weren't people trapped in burning neighborhoods. They were people whose health suffered in the smoky, depressing, dangerous and contaminated atmosphere during and after the conflagration.

As the Washington Post reports, scientists compared deaths in Los Angeles County between January 1 and February 1 with figures from past years, excluding 2020 through 2023 because of the coronavirus pandemic. 

They found this year, 6,371 deaths were recorded in that months span, compared to an expected 5,931 deaths. That leaves 440 more deaths that need explanation. 

A quote from the WaPo article: 

"The findings emphasize how climate-driven disasters can be far deadlier than they initially seem, with ripple effects in the weeks and months after the extreme events. The disasters are linked to lingering environmental damage and social upheaval that result in long-term, dangerous ills for hard-hit communities."

Calculating excess deaths the way they've done with the Los Angeles fires is a good way to capture the complete scope of a disaster. Scientists discover fatalities that weren't a direct result of the catastrophe. The event caused problems that proved fatal to some people, such as crappy air quality or health care disruptions and delays. 

The number of excess deaths from the L.A. fires surprised the researchers, according to the Washington Post. 

Moreover, there might have been additional deaths caused by the wildfire after February 1, when the study ended. 

The obvious next step would be to figure out how these excess deaths occurred. Was it the air pollution?

"That would require combining estimates of who was exposed to how much wildfire smoke with existing estimates of how given level of smoke exposure affects mortality," said Marshall Burke, a professor at the Stanford University Doerr School of Sustainability.

 The fires also left behind potentially cancer-causing contaminants. That could add to the fire mortality in the coming months and years. 

Looking wider, the study of Los Angeles fire deaths raises questions about the real death tolls of other wildfires and different kinds of disasters, such as hurricanes, tornadoes and floods. Additional deaths probably happen after the news cameras are pointed the other way after a disaster ends. 

For instance, other research after the wildfires in Maui, Hawaii in 2023 reached some disturbing conclusions.  

The official death toll in that fire was 102. But suicide and drug overdose rates on Maui skyrocketed in the month after the disaster. Another study showed that half of adults suffered from depression in the months after the Maui fire and 22 percent had decreased lung function. 

As climate change intensifies wildfires, storms, floods and droughts, it'll be important to get a handle on the real death toll associated with these calamities. Growing evidence suggests you're not necessarily safe if you survived the critical hours of the disaster. 

Weather and climate change can kill long after the sun comes back out, the fires are extinguished, the wind dies down and the water recedes. 

They've Already Canceled Our Next Shot At Vermont Rain

Read it and weep. Rainfall prediction map for the
next 7 days has nothing in and around Vermont. 
Meanwhile, torrential rain falls on the fishes
off the East Coast, and the Midwest gets
a good soaking. None of that is heading
in our direction, unfortunately. 

As expected, nothing more than sprinkles fell on a few spots last night, and many of us stayed completely rain free. One of the worst droughts in Vermont history continued to deepen. 

Some forecasts had a chance of isolated showers today, but that doesn't look like it's going to happen. Worse, our next chance at any rain, which was hoped for toward the end of this week, is now evaporating. 

It seems like this drought is never going away. 

Things are getting ridiculous. I was digging in a client's garden yesterday. Digging down a foot, I was still getting dust. One of my spruce trees has some wilted needles. I've never seen anything like that before. 

The forest fire danger in Vermont remains high and will stay that way for at least the next week. 

The Lake Champlain lake level as of yesterday was 93.26 feet.  That's down a whopping five feet since early June.

The current take level isn't actually the lowest it's ever been this time of year, but it's close. (It was at 92.71 feet in mid-September, 1941). Lake Champlain water there continues to slowly recede and is now within shouting distance of its all time lowest level, 92.13 on November 23, 1908.

Lake Champlain normally reaches its lowest level in late autumn. So if this drought continues, we could approach or break the record for its lowest level.   As it is, boaters have been hitting shoals and reefs that are now much closer to the water's surface than they once were.

Both 1908 and 1941 were among Burlington's top five driest years on record, so the low lake levels then aren't surprising. 

I doubt this year will be among the top driest ones because the first half of 2025 was relatively wet. Burlington has had 25.1 inches of rain so far this year. If we get about an inch and a half or more of rain by New Year's Eve, it won't be one of the driest years. 

We should manage that amount of rain by then. Gawd, I hope so. 

THE FORECAST

None of that rain is coming anytime soon. Strong  high pressure is coming in now to replace the other strong high pressure that kept us dry last week. This new high pressure will pretty much stall over us most of this week. 

This one is warmer than the last, so we'll have a bit of a summer redux most of this week.  The dry weather system that went though early this morning was a cold front of sorts, so today and tomorrow will have similar weather to what we've been having. That means highs in the low to mid 70s, lows in the 40s to low 50s. 

Tuesday through Thursday will turn into a bit of a summer redux. Many of us will see highs poke up to near 80.  It's dry out there, and that could lead to surprisingly warm afternoons. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of those days reach the mid-80s. 

A stalled storm near the Mid-Atlantic coast could end up throwing some high clouds our way, which might limit high temperatures a little. But alas, that storm won't send any rain clouds our way, either. 

It had been hoped the next cold front around this coming Friday would come in from the west. That would have allowed some moisture to flow up from the Gulf and give us a little rain. Nobody anticipated much, but a little bit might have been nice.

Now, it's appearing more likely that another mostly dry cold front will come in from the north instead. That means we'd get nothing more than scattered sprinkles on Friday. .This is five days away, so things could turn wetter again, but I'm doubting it at the moment. 

All we'll get out of this is another strong, slow moving high pressure system. The late week one will be a somewhat colder one.  It will be hitting in the second half of September after all. So by Friday night, and maybe Saturday night, we'll have to be on the lookout for scattered frost. 

I'll update that when we get closer to the event. 

Longer range forecasts have gotten slightly more encouraging, but not encouraging enough. Long range forecasts for the roughly last ten days of the month indicate near normal precipitation, which is better than nothing. 

Even longer range forecasts, which admittedly are not always that accurate, give us equal chances of above or below normal precipitation into the first half of October.  However, the overall weather pattern does favor a warmer and drier than average autumn for us.

Odd Saturday Moment: Rare, Long-Lasting Tornado In Remote Southeast Utah

Navajo Nations Police Department today 
post this photo of a large tornado in 
(checks notes) remote extreme 
southeast Utah. 

Tornado alley in a remote corner of Utah?

An often large tornado spent at least an hour intermittently on the ground around Montezuma Creek in extreme southeast Utah. 

That's very close to the Four Corners, where the borders of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico meet. 

The tornado and rotating supercell thunderstorm was still at it around 2 p.m. local time ( 4 p.m. Eastern). It appeared to be crossing the state line and heading into extreme southwest Colorado

The Navajo Nation  Police Department said so far, three homes had been damaged but there were no injuries. 

Police were warning people to say off the roads and to see shelter. The Utah Highway Patrol and San Juan County Sheriff's were en route to the area to help, 

Tornadoes are fairly rare in Utah, as the state averages about two or three per year. However, this part of Utah almost never sees tornadoes. Especially ones as large as this one, and those that last a long time like this twister has. 

San Juan County, where today's tornado hit, also had one back on July 12, said Matthew Cappucci of MyRadar Weather Radar. 

 The area where the tornado hit was only under a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, a low level alert in which only isolated instances of severe storms were forecast. Tornadoes were not predicted. 

Severe thunderstorms have been expected further south in New Mexico.

An upper level low centered near the storms apparently created enough spin in the atmosphere to support supercells and the tornado.  

The tornado and severe weather hit on what has been an otherwise relatively uneventful weather day in the United States. 

Drought's Cruel Radar Image: False Rain

Radar image from around 8 a.m. this morning 
appears to show light rain over northern Vermont.
It's almost entirely virga, which is rain
that was coming from the clouds but
evaporating before it could hit the ground. 

 The drought continues on in Vermont.

We awoke to a generally cloudy sky this Saturday morning.  A quick check of the National Weather Service/South Burlington  radar looked like a little light rain was moving in.

But nope! 

This morning's radar did indicate light rain coming from the clouds overhead. But the air is dry. So dry, that what little rain is coming from the high overcast is evaporating in the arid air overhead. 

Rain that comes from the clouds but doesn't make it to the ground is called virga.

It's another example of drought sustaining itself. 

The weather pattern continues to bring dry air from the interior of the continent.  We can't seem to get any real airflow from the Atlantic, or the Gulf of Mexico. No humid air for us! Thus, no rain. 

The dry ground around here is not adding any moisture to the air, either.  Sometimes, when we've already had a lot of rain, the soggy ground adds humidity to the air. Enough so that the rain falling from the clouds on a day like today would actually hit the ground. 

It wouldn't be a big rainstorm, but it will be an additional light wetting. 

This morning, the ground is dry, the air is dry.  So a weak, marginal weather system that might have otherwise given us a wee bit of light rain is producing nothing. 

I suppose a few rain drops might find their way to the ground in some spots between now and Sunday morning, but it won't make any difference. The last forecasts that indicated we might see a little measurable rainfall have largely evaporated. A few places in the north might see 0.05 inches or less. Not enough to help at all.  

The upcoming week features another long stretch of dry, sunny weather. In fact, the next six or seven days starting tomorrowwill probably be warmer than the past few days. Some afternoons coming up could reach into the low 80s. The higher the temperature on sunny days with low humidity, the higher the evaporation rates.

The drought will continue to worsen. 

Climate Change Might Make You Fat (With Asterisks)

New research indicates we consume more sugary 
drinks and food when it gets hotter. Essentially,
climate change could make us fat. 

A recent Washington Post article in effect said that climate change could make you fat.

They didn't really come out and say it like that, but the reporters cited research that says higher temperatures inspire more purchases of sugary drinks and ice cream. 

Since climate change is making a given day more likely to really heat up, chances are we'll increasingly gorge ourselves on Coca-Cola and Ben & Jerry's. 

Researchers studied 16 years of U.S, dietary habits between 2004 and 2019 found that as temperatures rise, consumption of sugary drinks and frozen desserts go up in tandem. 

Reports WaPo:

"Based on their understanding of the relationship between temperature and sugar, the researchers projected that under one of the worst-case scenarios for climate change, Americans could be expected to eat an extra three grams of sugar or so per day by 2095. The effort to stay hydrated and cool down could exacerbate the nation's risk of disease associated with excessive sugar consumption, the scientists said."

Except when it gets really hot. People eat and drink more sugary treats as the temperature climbs from the 50s all the way to the mid and upper 80s. 

More specifically, for every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit increase in temperate, added sugar consumption in U.S. households goes up by 0.7 per person per day. The escalation accelerates between temperatures of 68 and 86 degrees, reports CNN. 

After that, the effect levels off. Once it gets into the 90s, it gets too hot to eat. We lose our appetites. Even if somebody waves an ice cream cone in front of us. 

As with almost everything else in America, there's a class and economic status slant to this story. WaPo again:

"The effect appeared to be the most pronounced among Americans with low income and educational levels, as well as among those in milder regions unacclimated to the heat. While the amount of extra sugar consumed is small - less than a gram per degree - the cumulative effect of all that added sugar due to rising temperatures may end up increasing the overall risk of obesity, diabetes, heart disease and cancer."

Water should be the go-to in hot weather. But in many low income neighborhoods, it's hard to find tap water free of lead or dangerous chemicals. 

The researcher focused their work on the United States. Next up: Studying weather the same thing happens in Asia.  

Most Of Weekend Rain "Canceled" As Frustrating Vermont Drought Rolls On

Canada gifted us with a cold front Thursday and
all we got was a wind shift and a couple clouds. 

 Droughts might not necessarily be the most destructive weather disaster possible, but they are probably the most frustrating.  

I don't mean to dismiss the damage droughts inflict. Each one can cause millions, even billions of dollars in damage to crops, water infrastructure and more. 

In some parts of the world, droughts cause or contribute to famines which can kill thousands. Droughts are not to be messed with. 

Most weather disasters, though, have a pretty clear beginning and end. The hurricane, tornado or flood arrives and does its damage. When you're in it, you have a pretty good idea when it will be over. Then the storm indeed departs, leaving us humans to pick up the pieces. 

A drought sneaks up on you.  You don't realize you're in it until the crops start wilting, the well runs dry and the trees start turning brown. Worse, you have no idea when it will end.  Plus, there's usually no clean break from it.

I look at droughts the way I look at my experiences in airport terminals. Some people are afraid of flying. I'm not. My phobia is airport terminals. 

Airport terminals are where everything goes wrong. It usually takes the form of a slow cascade of escalating trouble. Like droughts. The worst part of airport terminals is you're there, and your flight gets delayed. They don't tell you how long the delay will last, why there's a delay or whether it will turn into a cancelation. 

You don't know whether you'll have to rebook with another airline, how long you will be there, whether you will actually get to your destination, or where you will sleep tonight. The uncertainty is what kills you. You actually feel better getting terrible, concrete news at the airport than you do when you are lingering with all those unanswered questions.

Not knowing what will happen is strangely better than learning your flight is canceled and the next available flight is three days from now. 

Droughts are the same way.  There's no real end date.  No information. There are moments of false hope. Maybe on a particular day during a drought it rains hard for awhile. But then it stops, and you return to endless days of blue skies and dry air. The drought worsens. 

Even when the rains really returns, it takes forever for the drought to actually end. It's hard to end a drought. Months of near average rainfall won't do it. You need months and months of above average rainfall. The chances of that happening are less than 50/50. 

OUR CURRENT EXPERIENCE

That's where we are in Vermont now. Each new forecast, each new day is another piece of frustration. It doesn't rain, again. A forecast that said rain was likely evaporates into a chance of scattered sprinkles. 

A cold front went through Vermont Thursday but you're forgiven if you didn't notice. Most cold fronts at least have a band of showers with them.  This one maybe had a couple puffy clouds. And a breeze that came from the north but didn't affect temperatures all that much. 

The only moisture we had was the patchy dense river valley fog we so often get during calm early mornings in September. The cold front meant temperatures this morning fell into the upper 30s to mid 40s by dawn. There might have been a patch or two of frost again in the very coldest hollows. 

Today is another sunny, dry one. It'll be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday but still pleasant. Except for the arid air that will keep worsening the drought. 

Speaking of worsening, the forecast has dried up too. The hoped for rain this weekend will not materialize. At least not to any great extent.

Earlier forecasts had a disturbance coming down from Canada and going right over us. That would have been good for maybe a quarter inch of rain. Not much, but it would have tided us over for a day or two.

Instead, the disturbance now looks like it will zip by to our north, leaving just a weak trough (basically a semi-cold front) to come through Saturday night. It will have very little rain along it. Plus, the air is so dry most of the small amount of rain coming with that little front will evaporate on its way down from the clouds. 

A few raindrops probably will make it to the ground, but they will basically amount to a trace. It might wet the dust down a tiny bit late Saturday or early Sunday. 

Then it's back to another long period of sunny, dry weather.  It feels strange to curse a string of sunny days in what used to be a perennially overcast Vermont. 

This drought is stubborn. It will actually get a little warmer next week, which is doubly bad. Dry, sunny weather will keep evaporating what little water we have left. When it gets warmer, evaporation rates increase. 

Expect at least some days next week to get up to near 80 degrees. 

Our next shot at rain still looks like it will come in around September 20. Long range forecasts continue to indicate that the weather system that would bring that rain looks unimpressive, so don't expect any kind of nice soaking. 

That would be too much to ask. 

Vermont is stuck in Terminal A of Drought International Airport, and the ticket agents are not telling us anything about whether we'll eventually be able to leave. They're not even offering a drink of water.  

Drought Keeps Intensifying In And Around Vermont; Getting Dangerous

A brown hayfield and brown sugar maple leaves in
the background Wednesday near Woodstock, Vermont
as drought continues to intensify. 

 I traveled back and forth between St. Albans in northwest Vermont, and Woodstock in the southeast on Wednesday. 

Our no longer so green Green Mountains scared me a bit. 

I know it's September and you normally see hints of fall colors in the landscape this time of year. But what I saw looked...... scorched. 

On many hillsides, the drought has prematurely turned leaves brown, as if exposed to a nearby fire. 

Underneath those trees, a slight breeze Wednesday afternoon brought down some of those desiccated leaves. Each one landed with a soft, faint dusty clatter on dirt roads, driveways, sidewalks and such. 

Each footstep on walking trails and paths stirred up a bit of dust.  We know the forest fire danger has been high for some time now.  But this drought is getting so intense, I'm beginning to worry about what will happen later this autumn when we get the strong, dry blasts of wind we always get later in September through November. 

We could see wildland fires like we've never seen before. 

Vermont is known for having "asbestos forests."  It's really hard to set them ablaze, at least normally. 

If our forests manage to catch fire, those blazes tend to be relatively small and are extinguished comparatively easily. Flames don't roar through the tree tops. They crackle close to the ground. 

Lots of brown, drought-stricken trees visible on 
this hillside near Quechee, Vermont Wednesday. 

Vermont forests are traditionally too moist, the humidity in the air is too high, and fallen logs and trees are too soggy to support much in the way of flames. 

We don't have those flammable conifers forests of the American West or the blow torch eucalyptus and palm trees that fuel California conflagrations. 

Now, though, climate change is changing the game here in Vermont, as it is virtually everywhere.

What was once almost unthinkable is turning possible. 

Extremes have gotten wild, and we blast from one extreme to the other. After two summers of destructive floods, we're now in a drought more intense than seen in decades, if ever. 

Our asbestos forests are turning into matchsticks. 

I worry that we'll have some super intense Vermont forest fires, the kind that roar through the tree tops like you see on the news when the western United States goes up in flames. I'm not saying that will happen.  I'm saying it's become an improbable possibility. 

It happened in New Jersey last year.  It's been known to happen in places like Maine, in the 1940s, and in Quebec.  We in Vermont might not be prepared for what might be coming, beyond the dry wells, water shortages, damaged crops and struggles with snow making in the ski industry. 

DROUGHT MONITOR NEWS 

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor came out this morning as usual. It shows a still-worsening situation in Vermont, despite some rain last weekend. 

All of Vermont is in drought, of course. It's one of four states - the others being Washington, Utah and Arizona, - in which 100 percent of each state's territory is in at least moderate drought. 

Drought continues to deepen in Vermont, according
to this week's U.S. Drought Monitor.
The more vivid orange is severe drought,
the lighter orange is moderate drought. 

Severe drought has expanded in Vermont, now covering more than half of Vermont, compared to a third of the state last week.  

The severe drought designation covers a much broader section of central Vermont than last week, and also a good chunk of the Northeast Kingdom. 

A spot of extreme drought has cropped up in west central New Hampshire, right near the Vermont border, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. 

Under extreme drought conditions, stream flow is reduced to a thin trickle or stops altogether, many wells go dry, dairy farms struggle financially, crop losses mount and well drillers and water haulers have more business than they can handle. 

Based on weather forecast, I think parts of Vermont are heading for the extreme drought category in coming weeks, unless we are very pleasantly and very surprised by rainfall. 

THE FORECAST

The weather forecast continues to be discouraging and frightening for our region. In other words, the rain dances so far aren't working. 

In the short term, today and Friday will continue the dry weather. The forest fire danger is high for the rest of today, as has so often been the case lately. 

We'd feared the fire danger would be even scarier today, but winds will be somewhat lighter than expectations were a few days ago. Though the air will be dry, the humidity will be slightly higher than in recent days. Dew points will be in the 50s instead of the 40s. Slightly higher humidity nudges the fire risk downward.  

Also there might be some clouds in the sky this afternoon as a weak cold front comes through. That front might even kick off an isolated sprinkle in one or two spots, but don't hold your breath on that one. 

The air will turn dry and clear again tonight and Friday.  There might even be a frost risk again in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom around dawn Friday. 

Predictions have changed some for this weekend. A few days ago, we thought Saturday and Sunday would bring absolutely no rain,

Now, a little light rain does seem to be in the cards.  Any rain is wonderful, but the anticipated showers this weekend will only temporarily slow the pace at which the drought is deepening. 

There's still some questions as to how much rain we'll get, but most forecasts call for light amounts. A few places might not get anything at all. A small minority of computer-generated forecasts call for a good half inch, but most meteorologist are discounting that idea.

Instead, it looks like a package of weak disturbances will blow through, flinging showers here and there, especially Saturday night and Sunday.  Rainfall looks like it will be a quarter inch or less. Probably less.

After that, it's back to dry weather. To break or even bruise the drought a bit, we need frequent, soaking rains. A drenching storm once every three days or so would be ideal. That's not in the cards. 

Instead, strong, dry high pressure will probably park itself over northern New England again next week.  A weak coastal low might try to send moisture our way, but it will likely get shunted off to our south. 

It still looks like our next shot at rain would be around September 19 or 20. From this distance, early indications are that system would also be on the weak side. The overall weather pattern through the end of the month and quite possibly beyond continues to look sadly dry. 

Organizers Of New Website, Climate.us Hope To Replace Deleted, Politicized Government Climate Site

A new website, climate.us is being set up by 
to replace climate.gov the climate change 
information website all but destroyed by 
the Trump administration. Climate.us
plans to put up information erased from
the old web site, and add info. 

Before the Trump administration took over, the Climate.gov site was one of the most widely used places on the internet to find climate information. 

That site is now gutted. You can still access it, but most of the information has been removed or redirected to government websites more in line with Donald Trump's climate denial mindset.

Thanks to some volunteers, though, much of that missing information might be coming back. Welcome to climate.us

The website's mission statement says in part: "Our goal is to build an enduring, independent, and scientifically rigorous platform that the world can rely on for climate communication, education and engagement." 

Reports The Guardian:

"Now, a team of climate communications experts - including many members of the former climate.gov team - is working to resurrect its content into a new organization with an expanded mission.

Their effort's new website, climate.us, would not only offer public-facing interpretations of climate science, but could also begin got directly offer climate-related services, such as assisting local governments with mapping increased flooding risk due to climate change."

The climate.us web page is up, and its home page tells us the following:

"From climate.gov to the National Climate Assessment, climate information you can trust is being hidden, erased, and replaces with misinformation. We're not letting that happen. We're building Climate.us - independent, nonprofit and immune to politics. But we can't do it without you."

It is a non-profit, so they are asking us to donate. 

Climate.gov was a sort of clearinghouse for climate change information, helping the public interpret what the science meant for them. Now, under Trump, Climate.gov has essentially gone dark, redirecting users to a different NOAA website controlled by political appointees, Rebecca Lindsey told CNN. 

Lindsey is climate.gov's former managing editor. She was fired last winter along with other employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. She is now among the group of former colleagues starting up climate.us. 

"The things that were most popular on climate.gov were things that basically just taught people about climate, both natural climate and climate change..... There is a need for content that helps people achieve basic climate literacy independent of an agency," Lindsey said. 

She went on with this good point: "This is information that the taxpayers already paid for... This administration is trying to hide it and take it away from us. It's an abuse of government. It's a waste of resources. People should be indignant. That's not the way the government should work."

The effort to establish climate.us is gaining support, including legal help and a short-term grant to help develop the overall vision for the website. 

Other organization are trying to preserve government data sets going dark because of the Trump administration. Climate.us is different because it plans to keep building on the old climate.gov content.  

No Atlantic Hurricanes Now At Peak Of Season: How Did We Get So Lucky?

Hurricane Erin is so far the only Atlantic hurricane
this year. We've entered a very odd period of no
tropical storms at what should be the
peak of hurricane season. 

Each year, on September 10, there is usually at least one tropical storm or hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.  

After all, today's date is the statistical peak of hurricane season. This year: Crickets.  

For a few days now, the main map on the National Hurricane Center map has stated. "Tropical activity is not expected during the next 7 days."

This is the first September 10 since 2016 without a tropical storm or hurricane. Only a handful of September 10s in the past half century without an Atlantic tropical storm.

This year, the last time there was a tropical storm was the day weak Tropical Storm Fernand died out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean without hurting anyone. 

The fact there is no hurricane currently in the Atlantic to menace anyone is great news. We've had enough of that in recent years. But meteorologists are sort of scratching their heads as to why there are no tropical systems out there.

Water temperatures where hurricanes would form are well above average. Since hurricanes thrive on warm water, this should encourage these storms. Right now, it's not. 

The problem for hurricanes is probably a large area of stable, dry air over the Atlantic.  You usually get the dry air early in the season but the atmosphere gets more moist by September. So far, that really hasn't happened all that much. 

Hurricane Erin did take advantage of increased moisture last month, but it's gotten dry again. There were concerns a system in the eastern Atlantic could form into a tropical storm a few days ago. But it ran into that dry air and completely fell apart.

We are falling behind normal in a year that was expected to give us slightly more tropical storms and hurricanes than usual. Six named storms have formed this year, which is two fewer than average by September 9. And only one of them strengthened into a hurricane. 

This is the second year on a row there was almost no tropical storm activity near the peak of hurricane season. Last year, there were no named storms between August 13 and September 8, which was the first time since 1967 there was nothing in that period of time. 

Of course, things took a tragic turn afterwards, later in the season with Hurricanes Helene and Milton. 

As of yesterday, we've had 16 days in the Atlantic with no named storms. That looks like it might go to at least 23 days, as nothing is forecast through next Monday. 

There were also quiet periods during peak season in 2020 and 2022. That's leading to speculation that maybe climate change is messing with hurricanes in ways we hadn't realized. We do know that when hurricanes form, they've tended to get stronger as they've been supercharged by extra warm Atlantic waters.

But maybe climate change somehow reduces the number of storms that do form, at least near the peak of the season. We don't really know why.  

One theory is the lapse rate - how fast the air temperature falls as you gain altitude.  The thunderstorms that power developing tropical storms need a steep lapse rate, meaning the temperature decreases sharply with height. 

There generally isn't as big a difference than usual this year between surface temperatures and readings many thousands of feet overhead. Is climate change doing that?  Researchers probably want to look into it. 

\As Bob Henson and Jeff Masters write in Yale Climate Connections, a deep dip in the jet stream that's been contributing to drought here in Vermont would have helped steer tropical storms or hurricanes away from the U.S. over the past couple weeks had they formed. 

Now, the pattern is changing with a northward bulge in the jet stream expected to form over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic Ocean. If a hurricane were to form over the next couple weeks, that pattern would make it a bit more likely for a tropical storm or hurricane to head toward the United States.

So we should hope the hurricane drought continues. 

Last year, as mentioned, the hurricane season perked up in dramatic fashion after the midseason lull. In 2022 the lull came a little later in the season, after devastating Hurricane Ian.  There were several tropical storms and a couple hurricanes after Ian, but those mostly formed late in the season - October and November. 

I guess all we can do this year is whatever is keeping hurricanes from forming in the Atlantic keeps it up. Then again, up here in drought-stricken Vermont, I wouldn't mind the heavy rainfall from a dying tropical storm.  

Trump's Department Of Energy Apparently Has Never Heard Of Batteries For Clean Energy

If you take Trump's Department of Energy at face
value, then they apparently are unaware of the
concept of batteries. 

 Let's check in with those electricity generating wizards at the U.S. Department of Energy, shall we?

They had this to say on X

"Wind and solar energy infrastructure is essentially worthless when it's dark outside, and the wind is not blowing."

Hoo boy. 

Could it be that the fine Trumpian folks at DOE have never heard of this nifty gadget called a battery?

They're amazing! The sun's out, and the wind is blowing and all those solar panels and wind turbines charge up those nifty batteries. 

Then the sun goes down and the wind goes calm, and those batteries supply electricity until the wind blows and the sun shines again. 

Those DOE guys and gals should check those batteries out! 

I'm sure DOE loved the community post on the X pointing out batteries exist in the real world, if not in the MAGA atmosphere.

 The comments on that @Energy post are pretty withering, as you can imagine. The first comment I saw when I last looked at it came from Josh Morgerman (@icylcone) who wrote, "This is quite possibly the stupidest tweet I've ever seen from any government account, in any country, anywhere on Earth."

Can't argue with that! 

California Gov. Gavin Newsom as he does so much, couldn't resist the urge to troll DOE, and by its extension Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Newsom's staff posted the following on X: "We're excited for the Trump administration to learn about BATTERIES(we have them here in California and they've helped the Golden State shift to green, clean energy AND keep the lights on)."

Even Elon Musk weighed in, pointing out the availability of batteries. His response to the @Energy tweet was "Um....hello?"

Then again, a some named Emily on X (Emnode) wrote "It's crazy how much money Elon Musk spent to buy the United States government and leave us with a Department of Energy that doesn't know batteries exist."

By the way, people use electricity during the day,  believe it or not, so those solar panels come in handy on sunny days, with or without batteries.  And, believe it or not, the wind sometimes blows at night. 

Of course, we actually doubt the people at the Department of Energy are as stupid as they pretend to be.  (Quite an aspiration, pretending to be as stupid as Lauren Boebert).

We're picking on Wright and his department for stupidity, but they know what they're doing. I'm quite sure they are aware batteries exist. OK, I hope they really understand batteries exist. 

This ignorant posting is all about a larger Trump administration effort to spread misinformation. And to turn the public away from clean energy. 

After all, the official Trump position is that climate change is - against all evidence - a hoax and therefore clean energy is verboten. 

There's a percentage of Americans who don't understand solar and wind power and how they relate to batteries, so Wright is appealing to that base,

What the Department of Energy and its Secretary Wright and his Department of Energy is doing is blasting misinformation to convince people who don't have a lot of knowledge about clean energy.

For the rest of us, the misinformation is meant to make the rest of us mistrust solar and wind power. They hope enough to turn the majority of the public against it, so that climate changing fossil fuel will reign supreme. 

Wright, after all, is the former CEO of two former fossil fuel companies, specializing in shale gas and oil.   

 I don't have a problem with people questioning the efficacy of solar and wind power. As long as the questioning is based on reality and facts. Questioning anything when it's based on facts is a great way to make things better, no matter what you're talking about. 

But as climate change continues to take its worsening toll, we'd better be promoting and improving clean energy. Trump and his minions live in the 1950s, when we didn't know much about fossil fuel and how they contribute to climate change. 

Good changes happen as society learns more information.  The Trump administration, and people who work for him, are trying to take information away from the public. Because it benefits them, and to hell with everyone else.  

Even After A Rain, Drought Conditions Quickly Favor Return To Fire Danger

A pretty sky on a brilliant September day Monday
as seen from a hillside near Richmond, Vermont

You can tell we needed a lot more rain than what we got Friday and Saturday to dig ourselves out of the drought. 

One sunny, breezy, admittedly gorgeous Vermont Monday and it's already getting parched out there. 

The rain from Saturday soaked in a little, but only wetted the thinnest top layer of soil. That's already drying out. 

You can tell the rain did little good because river levels scarcely budged from their low levels. 

Rock bottom low Lake Champlain rose a whole 0.03 inches from late last week to a 93.38 feet yesterday, an incredibly low level. 

So, given this, we'll have to watch for occasional fire risk days when low humidity and breezy winds overlap for the rest of this autumn until we get some soaking rains. As leaves die and drop and weeds and vegetation turn brown and dormant, the fire risk will rise. 

We'd better pray for a soggy mid and late autumn

THE FORECAST/FIRE RISKS

They did get some frost in the very coldest hollows last night. There were some reports of low to mid 30s in the Northeast Kingdom. The always-cold spot Saranac Lake, New York in the Adirondacks was down to 29 degrees. It was 32 there yesterday, ending their always short growing season. This year, it was 97 days between the last spring freeze and the first one of the fall.

All the rest of us, of course, escaped anything like that. I'm grateful the wildfire smoke in the atmosphere has been pretty minimal around here lately.  It was nice to see that deep blue sky between the decorative clouds in the sky during the day Monday, 

The very low humidity will continue to dry out the landscape over the next few days. Today, the fire danger is high in southern Vermont and just moderate in northern Vermont, where better rains fell  Saturday.

We'll continue to have cool nights and warm sunny days today and tomorrow, (lows 40-52, highs well into the 70s) and plentiful sunshine. But we won't have much wind. So if a fire were to start, it wouldn't spread too fast. And the lingering but waning moisture from the weekend might also hinder the spread. 

THURSDAY DANGER

The potential problems come Thursday. By then, the fine fuels that can catch fire - dry grass, weeds and leaves) will have dried out completely after Saturday's rain. 

Meanwhile, the drought has gotten so bad that big things in the forests like big dead branches and fallen logs have really dried out.  It takes a long time for those objects to get dry enough to burn efficiently, but we've accomplished that this year.  Once they dry out, it takes a lot of rain to get them sort of too wet to burn once again.

If these big branches and logs do burn,  they can generate a lot of heat and can make fire behavior more dangerous than usual. And make it much more difficult to contain a forest fire.   

It's one reason why droughts are so dangerous 

The reason I bring this up when I'm talking about this coming Thursday is another cold front is coming. It will have no rain with it like most cold fronts do. But it will generate some gusty north winds. It won't be a gale, but the 25 mph gusts could spell trouble. 

That kind of wind is enough to make it easy for fires to start and spread quickly. With all that dry stuff in the woods we can really have some trouble.

Which is why we all have to be careful with fires. Especially on Thursday. If we don't start any blazes, then there's no problem. At least in terms of wildfires. 

The wind should quickly calm down late Thursday night, so at least the gusts won't last long. The next chance of somewhat windy weather is Saturday, when breezes will pick up from the south.

We do have a slight chance of light showers Sunday, but that's iffy. If it does rain, it will be very light - easily less than a tenth an inch. Which wouldn't do much good.  There's a good chance it might not rain at all. 

According to a lot of the forecasts I've seen, the next shot at any real rain in Vermont would come around September 20.  That's an awful long time to wait in a drought like this.

Don't Say "Climate": Northeast Climate Center To Close Under Trump Fears Of Science

The Northeast Regional Climate Center looks like
it will be another victim in the Trump war
on climate science 

The Northeast Regional Climate Adaptation Center in Amherst, Massachusetts will probably close by the end of the month because the Trump administration doesn't want anybody researching anything to do with climate change. 

The center is Public Enemy #1 in the eyes of the Trump people because it helps state and local partners formulate plants to adapt wildlife, water resources and land to climate change. 

"'This is just another way to stop science," said Bethany Bradley, the center's co-director and a professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, where the research center is hosted.

As WBUR reports:  

"In mid-August, the federal Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directed the agency's ecosystems  research arm, which overseas these centers, to spend money only on federal employees' salaries, according to budget documents.  

Other spending, on activities like publishing articles, hiring post-doctoral researchers, or applying for operating funds, has stalled, Bradley said. Planned projects for the upcoming academic year were canceled. In a typical year, the center's budget ranges from $3 to $4 million."

The center runs out of money at the end of this month.  If the OMB spending freeze isn't lifted, the center will close and 20 or so jobs might go.

It's just another of many climate change resources evaporating under the gun of the Trump administration. This center in Amherst is one of nine regional hubs across the nations that helps site and local organizations formulate plans to adapt wildlife, water resources and land to the effects of climate change. The nine regional hubs have been supported by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Several other of the nine regional climate centers in the United States have already shut down or are about to under the spending freeze. 

MY RANT

What galls me the about these climate cutbacks from the Trump administration is the wording they use about these topics. Of course their wording is meant to anger "woke liberals" or whatever they call anybody who disagrees with them.

To MAGA, people who think climate change is a serious thing aren't just wrong or misguided.  They are the enemy. That's why the funding freeze described by the White House "guts a weaponized deep state" and that efforts to combat the effects of climate change are the "Green New Scam."

I suppose it's effective PR, especially if the target audience is willfully ignorant. And for the MAGA crowd,  it probably feels good inside to use language like that.   

You can have temper tantrums all you want, but nothing gets done. Which maybe is the point. Why do actual work when you can put on an impromptu, easy show instead? Mostly for likes and clicks on MAGA social media. 

Who cares if peoples livelihoods are at stake, right?  President Trump, you're 79 years old. Isn't it time to grow up?

First North Country Frost Advisories Of The Season Tonight

Summer is definitely over!

A chilly looking sunset Sunday evening over Georgia,
Vermont introduced us to a cool spell that brings a 
risk of frost tonight to the coldest hollows of 
northern Vermont, New York and New Hampshire.
The vast majority of us will avoid any frost.

A few places in and near Vermont might get a little frost tonight. Essex County, in the far northeast corner of the Green Mountain State is under a frost advisory overnight tonight through the hours around dawn Tuesday. 

So are the Adirondacks in New York. And Coos County in far northern New Hampshire. 

In those places, it could get down into the low to mid 30s in some place so sensitive plants there should be brought inside or covered. 

For the rest of us, don't worry. It will be the chilliest night so far this season region wide, but the tomatoes and such in your gardens should be safe for now. 

Most of us will bottom out between 38 and 45 degrees, with a few upper 40s to near 50 right along the shore of Lake Champlain. 

Frosts and even solid freezes in the cold spots is not at all unusual around here this time of year. The National Weather Service this morning put out a list of earliest and latest autumn frost dates in selected cities around here. 

The earliest 32 degree temperature in Burlington was on September 13, 1964.  Burlington won't come remotely close to breaking that record tonight. Their forecast low Tuesday morning is 45 degrees. 

Montpelier's earliest freeze on record was on August 31, 1965.  

Remarkably, at least to me, the earliest 32 degree reading on record in Rutland and Woodstock was on August 25, 1940, which seems incredibly early. I looked it up and that 1940 August cold spell was something. St. Johnsbury endured four consecutive mornings in the 30s from August 25-28 that year. 

It will probably get to 32 degrees early Tuesday morning over in Saranac Lake, New York. It was 34 degrees there this morning, and that mountain cold spot has had frosts every month of the year. 

You might think it odd we're talking about frost tonight on a day when afternoon temperatures will ve way up in the 60s.   But it will be perfect night for it to cool off. Light winds, clear skies and very dry air is the exact recipe you need for temperatures to plunge after sunset. 

THE WEEK AHEAD

After the showers of the past few days, it's back to drought. And generally cool, sunny weather for the foreseeable future. 

We felt the winds of autumn yesterday, for sure. The last in a series of cold fronts came through in the afternoon.  The accompanying light showers and stiff wind gusts brought temperatures down into the low 60s by mid afternoon. 

Strong, dry highs pressure is taking control, so the sun will shine brightly today through the rest of the week. 

After those 60s for high temperatures today, it will warm up a little with daytime highs in the low to mid 70s Tuesday and well into the 70s, with some upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday. Because of the dry air, nights will still be chilly - mostly in the 40s all week, with 50s in milder, broad valleys. 

Since the nights will be so cool, overall temperatures this week will come out a little cooler than average for this part of September. 

A new cold front should arrive Thursday or Thursday night to reinforce the autumnal air. I see maybe another frost risk for the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks early Friday and Saturday mornings. It should start to warm up slightly next weekend. 

DROUGHT REASSERTS

Notice I haven't mentioned rain yet.  As I keep saying the drought goes on. And it will start to get worse again. Plenty of sunshine and rock bottom humidity will dry things out quickly. The only moisture we'll see until at least Saturday will be the patchy fog that usually forms in river valleys this time of year. 

We might or might not see a weak disturbance blast down from Quebec Saturday and that, I suppose, could give us a few light showers or sprinkles if it aims at us just right. 

But that pattern of one big, fat, dry high pressure system after another lumbering slowly across our region looks like it might pretty much continue all month. 

It looks like it might end up being a pretty dusty autumn. 

Dam Removals In Vermont Accelerate In The Age Of Climate Change

The old dam in West Rutland, Vermont before
demolition began this summer. The dam
was removed to improve stream ecology
and prevent flood damage. Old dams
in Vermont are coming under more 
and more scrutiny in the age of 
climate-change driven floods. 

 Back in high school, I briefly had the worst job I ever had.

There was a town reservoir in West Rutland, Vermont that was a municipal water supply. The reservoir was temporarily drained, and we had to muck out the algae and mud left behind to ensure future water quality. 

YUCK!

The town no longer uses that water supply. And I have to say West Rutland now has some of the best tasting tap water of any town I've tried. 

But the dam was still there. Or was. Work began earlier this summer to tear it down. Part of the reason is climate change, of course! 

The dam was growing more and more unsafe due to its age and the increasing severity of rain storms created in large part by that climate change. 

 As WPTZ reports:

"Officials said because of the dam's outdated infrastructure and old age, parts are breaking off during storms and changing the direction of the river. West Rutland Town Planner Mary Ann Roulette said the dam has caused major disruptions over the years. She revealed there as minor damage affecting nearby property this past July."

Karina Dailey, a restoration ecologist and chair of Vermont's dam task force said the West Rutland deconstructions  is one of several dam removal projects. Others are getting going in Newport, Ripton, Berkshire and Winooski. 

DAM SCRUTINY

Communities statewide are discussing removing dams, perhaps hundreds of them. Usually in the name of river health, and the fact removing these small dams can minimize flooding in climate-driven storms. 

 "The best resilience is to let these rivers function naturally," Dailey said. 

Sure, we're having a drought now, but it's only a matter of time before we start running into those super charged rainstorms again. 

It's interesting this is going on now as some Vermont dams were built almost a century ago after the cataclysmic Great Flood of 1927.  

Large flood control dams like Wrightsville, Waterbury and East Barre were built after that flood. Montpelier suffered extensive damage in the July, 2023 flood, but the Wrightsville Dam helped prevent the water from being even deeper. But that dam was almost overtopped in 2023, and that would have caused an even more cataclysmic inundation.

Still, those large dams did their jobs in 2023 and 2024 and did protect some property. It's the small dams that are causing problems. 

In the 2023 floods, five Vermont dams failed and 60 were overtopped. That event has put new urgency into efforts to remove old dams. 

As Vermont Public reported in a separate article, Vermont has more than 1,000 dams around the state. Many are overdue for repairs or are old and becoming dangerous. As those climate induced storms intensify, those dams become more unstable, and can collapse under heavy rains, worsening damage. 

Even if these old, unstable dams don't collapse during floods, they can create damage in heavy rain storms. 

"Dams not created specifically for flood protection are regularly full and do not provide storage capacity. And they frequently direct water outside the main channel at high velocities which causes bank erosion and impacts to communities,"  said Andrew Fisk, the northeast regional director for the environmental advocacy group American Rivers.

Which is precisely why that dam in West Rutland was removed, and many other dams in Vermont are on their way out. Or, dams like ones recently removed in Dover, and another in Ripton were taken out for ecological reasons. But those removals had the happy side effect of minimizing damage from future floods.

MONTPELIER

Flood-prone Montpelier is looking at removing old dams and has already started on one. 

The Pioneer Street Dam is about 1.3 miles upstream from downtown Montpelier. It's cracked, could collapse in a flood, and could redirect water toward homes and businesses even if it doesn't get smashed down in a future flood. 

Also this summer, right near the Pioneer Street Dam, deconstruction work started on a 19th century home that was on property that once belonged to Jacob Davis, the founding settler in Montpelier was deconstructed.

The property located at 5 Home Farm Way, about two miles upstream from Montpelier consists of a high style Greek Revival house with an attached barn and 19 acres of agricultural land. 

Bricks and planks from the home are being resold for new construction elsewhere. Removing the home and barns opens up new floodplain space, allowing water to spread out over fields before reaching Montpelier during torrential storms. 

Vermont usually tries to preserve historic buildings, but sometimes, there's a greater good that overrides that. "The highest and best use of a floodplain is to serve as a floodplain, said Ben Doyle, president of the Preservation Trust of Vermont, reports Vermont Public. 

Between the removal of the Pioneer Street Dam and the old house, the Winooski River will have more opportunity to spread out into floodplains during big storms before some of that water could reach downtown Montpelier. 

There are three other old mill dams upstream of Montpelier that should be removed, advocates said. They no longer serve the purpose they once did a century ago. They don't even hold back water. The space behind the dams are filled with silt. 

Time for them to go.