Drought, Wildfire Risk Back In Vermont

Fire danger in Vermont is back to high again.
Rain last week tamped the fire danger 
down a little, but it has dried out
again. Breezy weather won't help. 

The dampness from the rain we had last week has dried up in Vermont and we're back to our regularly scheduled drought. 

I noticed I was once again stirring up a lot of dust working in my St. Albans yard yesterday. 

The fire danger in Vermont is back to high again, after dropping to "moderate" for a few days after the rain.  

Today won't help. A dry cold front went through this morning, and all it will do is drop temperatures somewhat and make the winds pick up. Gusts to 25 mph or so could fan flames. 

Luckily, the winds shouldn't get extremely strong, so that helps. The humidity will be quite low, but not as low as it can possibly get.

Which means we're not really in a worst case scenario for wildfires today and tomorrow, the but the risk is definitely heightened. 

Make sure you don't send any sparks flying to start a blaze that could spread pretty quickly. No burn piles or camp fires, either. A statewide burn ban remains in effect.

Already, just this morning, I saw a report of a brush fire near the Ben & Jerry's plant in St. Albans. Early reports are that blaze was quickly contained. 

Yesterday afternoon, a reported vehicle fire in Alburgh was spreading into a field. That fire, too, was quickly controlled. 

Tomorrow will be breezy, too, so we won't see any improvements then. 

There has been an increasing number of brush fires in Vermont this month, but luckily all have been contained pretty quickly. At least so far. 

Through September 19, 65 fires were recorded in Vermont this year. As of yesterday, that number had increased to 73. However, only 57.47 acres have been burned so far this year through yesterday. That's just four or so acres more than the total on September 19.  

After sunny, cool, dry weather for the next few days, it will stay sunny and dry, but turn warm again over the weekend and early next week. Warmer weather accelerates evaporation, so that's not good.  However, if ay new brush or wildfires start, I don't see any strong winds to fan flames until maybe next Monday, October 8. 

It still doesn't look like Vermont will see any showers until around Tuesday, October 9. but early guesses are those showers will probably be on the light side. 

Humberto, Imelda Find Love After All In A New World Of Category 5 Hurricanes

Weakening Hurricane Humberto, right, and strengthening
Hurricane Imelda, of the Southeast U.S. coast in this
mornings satellite photo. High clouds extending all
the way to New England are the warm "exhaust" 
from the storms. The two hurricanes will 
head east out to sea. 

Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda continue to foster their close relationship in the southwest Atlantic Ocean, now pretty far offshore of the United States.  

I painted the two very close to each other tropical systems as a sort of tumultuous couple in my Saturday post. One of many guesses were that Humberto would accelerate away leaving a jilted Imelda to wander near the U.S. coastline. 

But, instead, they worked things out. Humberto is tugging Imelda along for a cruise across the Atlantic Ocean.

That comes as a big relief of the United States, because it means no landfall, no big flood, no disaster . Instead, the Southeast is just seeing relatively minor coastal effects like rain, gusty, non-damaging winds and some rough surf and rip currents. 

It turns out Humberto and Imelda were made for each other.

They are incredibly close together by tropical storm standards, with only 580 miles separating them as of yesterday. In the past only nine pairs of tropical storms or hurricanes have come as close or closer to each other as Humberto and Imelda, according to meteorologist Michael Lowry. 

Imelda is now swept up in the atmospheric steering currents created by Humberto and both are heading northeastward together out into the open Atlantic. Both will eventually die in the cold waters out there. 

Before that could happen, Imelda strengthened into a hurricane this morning with top winds of 75 mph. It could achieve winds of 100 mph within a day or two. Imelda is expected to pass near Bermuda Wednesday night or Thursday morning, so they could receive quite a blow.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto is to the northeast of Imelda and tugging her along. Humberto was briefly a Category 5 storm with winds of 160 mph. But as of this morning, it was down to 100 mph. Hurricanes are like big chimneys.

Warm air is pushed upward into the upper atmosphere.  The "exhaust" from the Imelda's chimney is helping to suppress Humberto's strength.  Also, strong upper level winds caused in part by the atmospheric chaos created by two big storms is also weakening Humberto by stripping its intense thunderstorms away from its center. 

You could see the "exhaust" from Imelda on satellite photos yesterday and this morning.  

And overhead here in Vermont. That warm air belching from hurricanes often takes the form of high thin cirrus clouds. Those thin clouds that went south to north over Vermont yesterday afternoon and evening, and produced another nice sunset, was part of the exhaust plume from Imelda. 

That Humberto reached Category 5 status before its tango with Imelda is disconcerting, since these Category 5 monsters are becoming more frequent in the Atlantic Ocean. Category 5 hurricanes are the worst of the worst, with top wind speeds of at least 156 mph. 

Humberto was the 12th Atlantic Category 5 hurricane in the last decade, and the fourth in the past two years. Beryl and Milton were Category 5s last year, and this year we had Erin and Humberto. Unlike last year's Category 5s, neither storm bothered the United States all that much.  

Hurricane season is not over, and there could be a couple or few more tropical storms or hurricanes between now and the end of November. However, the National Hurricane Center says they don't expect any new tropical storms to form over the next week or so.  

National Weather Service Still Struggling With Staff Shortages

Despite promises of rehiring, the National Weather
Service remains dangerously low on staff.
Burnout looms large and that could
hurt public safety in the U.S. 

As tropical storms and hurricanes whirl, and wildfires threaten, and winter storms loom sooner than you think, the National Weather Service is still struggling with deep staff shortages, as the Washington Post reported this weekend. 

The stupid staff firings led by the odious Elon Musk last winter and spring, along with resignations and retirements means 600 workers, or about one in every seven, left the National Weather Service. 

Adequate staffing at the National Weather Service is at about 4,500 employees. Right now, they're well south of 4,000. 

According to the Washington Post: 

"Some National Weather Service staffers are working double shifts to keep forecasting offices open. Others are operating under a 'buddy system,' in which adjacent offices help monitor severe weather in understaffed regions. Still others are jettisoning services deemed not absolutely necessary, such as making presentations to schoolchildren."

Somehow, National Weather Service storm monitoring and weather forecasting have gone almost without any interruptions.  

However, just think if two big weather emergencies happened at once.  I don't know whether the NWS would have been able to handle it. Take this week for example,

Hurricane Humberto and soon to be hurricane Imelda have been very close together in the Atlantic Ocean, making forecasting difficult. .But neither storm is a direct threat to the United States, so forecasting for the two tropical systems is being managed OK.

But what if everything was further west. Imagine a scenario in which Hurricane Humberto was about to make landfall in the Carolinas while at the same time Imelda was threatening Houston or New Orleans.

Would the National Weather Service have the bandwidth to manage both crises? Once upon a time, they would. Right now, I'm not so sure. 

CURRENT NWS SITUATION

The Trump administration did a reversal earlier this year and granted the National Weather Service an exemption to a government-wide hiring freeze. But the fresh hiring largely hasn't happened yet. 

The incoming new NOAA director, Neil Jacobs, has pledged to address the staff shortages, but a U.S. Senate Committee just barely advanced his nomination on September 17. 

NOAA staffers, including most everyone at the National Weather Service are working overtime. Their work/life balance is shot to hell. WaPo says managers are picking up forecasting shifts. Some offices are sharing their employees remotely with locations that don't have enough staff. That requires overtime and working weekends. 

Even worse, if the government shuts down this week, NWS meteorologists considered essential employees. So they would be working without pay on top of everything else. At least until Congress and Donald Trump finally decide to get their act together. 

Good luck with that. 

There was a lot of concern this spring and summer that overstretched NWS meteorologists would miss things like rapidly developing tornadoes and flash floods. If that has happened, it's been rare. I haven't come across data showing whether or not forecasts for dangerous weather have degraded under the Trump regime. 

Stay tuned for eventual studies and research on that topic. 

Here's an example of the potential danger. The National Weather Service office in central Texas was able to issue timely flash flood warnings ahead of and during the epic and deadly July 4 weekend Texas Hill Country flash floods. Those floods still claimed more than 130 lives, despite the warnings.   

At the time of the flood, the Austin/San Antonio NWS office which covers the area hit by the flood, was  understaffed by six employees. One of the vacant positions at that NWS office was warning coordinator. 

The warning coordinator is the one who alerts local officials to danger. In the Texas flood, local officials appear not to have responded adequately to the warnings. Early indications are that was not primarily the fault of the National Weather Service. However,  communication between the NWS and local emergency officials is still under investigation, the Texas Standard reports. 

Three months after the flood, the Austin/San Antonio NWS office is now seven employees short of fully staffed. The warning coordinator position is still unfilled.

EXHAUSTED STAFF

Meanwhile, the longer the meteorologists are overworked, the more likely the will start to miss things. 

That could cost lives. 

"They're going to run out of gas," John Sokich, a retired National Weather Service employee told the Washington Post. "They're going to start missing things. You can't sustain that level of effort for much longer."

A NOAA spokesperson blandly said that the NWS "remains equipped to meet its mission of protecting American lives and property through timely forecasts and critical decision support services."

Yeah, only because NWS meteorologists are now practically killing themselves accomplishing that mission.  

Vermont, Back In Sunny Drought, Will See Temperatures Bounce Around

Henry the Weather Dog says his favorite weather is
warm, sunny weather, so he's been very happy 
lately. He's not as worried about the drought as
many Vermonters are. In this photo, he's taking
a quick break from playing with his friends
in Sunday's sunshine at a 
St. Albans, Vermont dog park. 

After our welcome rains last week, and a slow clearing trend, we're back to the sunny, drought-idled regime we've been on here in Vermont since mid-summer. 

A weak disturbance gave us some clouds Saturday, but no rain, of course. 

Sunday was beautiful and mostly sunny and oddly warm for the end of September. The high temperature in Burlington was 81 degrees, just two degrees below the record high for the date.

That band of clouds that came through midday Sunday was allegedly a cold front. It had no rain with it - again, of course. The "cold front" introduced some less humid air, which allowed temperatures to fall a little lower this morning that the very mild previous nights. 

Sunday's alleged cold front was the start of a temporary cooling trend that will reverse itself by the end of the week.  By next weekend, it'll be strangely warm again. The only constant through all this will be the daily almost wall to wall sunshine. Not great if you're sick of Vermont's deep, destructive drought. 

Today will be almost as warm as Sunday, ahead of the next cold front. That front will come through tonight with no fanfare, no rain, no nothing.  All it will do is make tomorrow feel noticeably cooler. But still mild enough for the last day of September.

BRIEF COOL SPELL

The trend will keep running cooler Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will actually be fairly close to normal for this time of year. Highs both days should be within a few degrees either side of 60. That's not bad, considering in the past we've sometimes seen highs in the 40s in the opening days of October. 

Even so, we'll have to worry about scattered frosts and freezes again Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday nights. It won't be anything out of the ordinary for the first days of October, but it you're hanging on to your outdoor plants, you probably will have to cover them up again. 

Much of the Champlain Valley looks like it will escape the frost, but pay attention to future forecasts in case it gets unexpectedly cool any of those nights.  

One thing that could slightly mitigate the risk of frost comes in part - believe it or not - from Hurricane Humberto and soon to be Hurricane Imelda far offshore of the East Coast. 

The contrast between those storms, and massive, dry high pressure coming down from Quebec, will stir up a north to northeast breeze. Overnight breezes might keep temperatures up just a bit.  

By the way, the forecast trend has been more and more for Humberto to tug Imelda away from the southeastern United States, so the effects of Imelda won't be nearly as bad as first feared. 

Meanwhile, back here in Vermont, that big, fat, sunny, dry high pressure will stick around. Starting Friday and even more so during the weekend, the high will shift a little to the east. 

Because of that, the cool north breezes will shift and become very light puffs of wind from the southwest. That will bring back the warm air. Despite the relative chill on the opening two days of the month, October looks like it will come in hot. 

I wouldn't be super surprised if temperatures flirt with 80 degrees once again by Sunday or early next week. That's definitely unusual but not unheard of for early October. I don't know whether the entire month of October will be warm, but the balmy weather coming up for the beginning of this October fits a recent trend.

Three of the past four Octobers - at least as measure in Burlington - were among the top ten warmest on record. Maybe we'll do it again this year. 

In terms of rain, it's still looking grim heading into October. The dry air that's become established in Vermont will erase the slight gains against the drought we saw with last week's rain. Then it will continue deepening our serious drought. 

I've been saying our next chances of rain are around October 9.  I'm not sure yet, but that needed rain is beginning to look like it might be postponed a few more days. Let's hope not! 

It's Still The Year Of The Floods, Arizona, Tennessee Latest Victims

The inside of a flood-destroyed 
restaurant in Globe, Arizona. 

Over the spring and summer, I kept calling 2025 the Year Of The Floods. Devastating floods kept hitting so many parts of the U.S. through the winter, spring and summer.   

Those culminated with the immense Texas Hill Country flood over the July 4 weekend that killed at least 135 people. 

August in the U.S. was generally drier, but local floods continued to pick off communities and occasionally cost lives in various other parts of the nation.

The Year Of The Floods Hit again over the past few days. This time, Arizona and Tennessee were the big trouble spots.

The worst of these were in Arizona.

ARIZONA MONSOON

At least four people have died and there's widespread damage in normally arid Arizona due to intense monsoon storms. 

The worst of it hit the small city of Globe, Arizona, east of Phoenix. The old mining town with a population of 7,200 was swept by a flash flood Friday that turned downtown streets into whitewater rapids. 

About two inches of rain hit Globe Thursday, then several more inches poured down Friday, overwhelming dry washes and sending walls of water through the city and the nearby community of Miami. 

There have been three known deaths in and around Globe, and several other people are missing, reports the Arizona Republic. 

About 1,000 propane tanks from a distribution center were washed away in Globe and are scattered throughout the area. That obviously complicates the recovery effort, since some of them could still explode.

Video showed cars and propane tanks floating in downtown Globe with bursts of gas coming from some of the tanks. People at a baby shower in a Globe historical center said water burst in and almost immediately became at least waist deep inside the structure. Everybody at the baby shower was rescued. 

Downtown Globe has many historic buildings dating back to its mining past in the 1800s. Many of those buildings are now badly damaged. Exterior walls of the Wild Horses Saloon were blown out bye the rushing water. 

Serious flooding also hit around Phoenix and Scottsdale, where one person was reported dead and several other people were rescued from stuck, inundated cars. Phoenix had 1.64 inches of rain Friday, its wettest day since 2018.

TENNESSEE

In the mountains of east Tennessee, flash flooding and mudslides caused havoc on Saturday, especially around Great Smoky Mountains National Park. 

A landslide closed part of the Gatlinburg Bypass, a heavily traveled road around the tourist city of Gatlinburg and a gateway to the national park. Several other roads in the region were closed.

The rain has moved out of eastern Tennessee. Moisture from what will be Tropical Storm Imelda is unlikely to reach as far inland as the Smoky Mountains to an extent serious enough to cause more flooding.  

Although it's hard to determine whether the floods in Arizona and Tennessee have any link to climate change, they are consistent with it. A warming world means the atmosphere can hold more moisture that it could during cooler times. 

When the right storm comes along, that added moisture can result in extreme downpours, more intense than those we saw decades ago. 

Humberto And Imelda Continue Their Dance; Will Carolinas Escape Trouble?

As pot this morning, Hurricane Humberto to the right
is a classic, intense hurricane. Meanwhile, that elongated
cluster of clouds in eastern Cuba and the Bahamas
will become Tropical Storm Imelda, Click on this
photo to make it bigger and easier to see.

The Southeast continues to watch super powerful Hurricane Humberto and what as of early this morning was still soon to be Tropical Storm Imelda. 

The news is cautiously optimistic for the Carolinas as early hints take what will be Imelda a little further offshore than previously forecast.  

The reason: Hurricane Humberto is by far the dominant one in this relationship.  It achieved Category 5 status Saturday with top winds of 160 mph.  Category 5s used to be relatively rare, but they seem to have gotten more common.

Hotter water brought on by climate change is powering up many more hurricanes to Category 5 than we used to see.

 This hasn't been a particularly busy Atlantic hurricane season so far, and yet this is the second Category 5 of the year. Hurricane Erin reached that status in August.

Humberto was marginally weaker early this morning with top winds of 155 mph, so still wicked powerful. 

Since Humberto is so strong, compared to relatively weak Imelda, it will have more influence over the situation. Imelda is still forecast to move northward through the Bahamas parallel to the Florida east coast today, through Monday into Tuesday. 

Imelda didn't strengthen into a tropical storm Saturday as some forecasts indicated. But it was getting better organized just off the northeast coast of Cuba early this morning so today will be the dawn of Tropical Storm Imelda. I guess she didn't want to be a Saturday baby or something. 

The water north of Cuba and toward the Bahamas is quite warm, and that will fuel Imelda.  Meteorologists think it will manage to become a hurricane by around late Monday night or Tuesday morning. 

Imelda will still be weaker than big bad Humberto, though. probably will manage to become a hurricane by around late Monday night or Tuesday morning. Between the influence of Humberto and the fact a weather disturbance over the interior southeastern United States won't be able to draw Imelda toward the coast, it's looking a bit safer for the Carolinas, and Georgia, and even Florida for that matter. 

Instead, the best guess is by midweek, Imelda will slow down, and take a turn to the northeast, and follow big Humberto into the north Atlantic, where both will eventually die in the cold water up there. 

That's not to say the Southeast coast is completely out of the woods. A few forecasts still bring Imelda close to or even on the coast, which would be a mess, but most keep it offshore. 

Even if forecast is accurate and Imelda lingers offshore, it will probably come close enough to send heavy rain bands and gusty winds into coastal areas of South Carolina and parts of North Carolina. And maybe Georgia and coastal Florida. 

Imelda could also bring some storm surges and rough seas to the Southeast coastline. Because it will be moving so slowly, it'll have a lot of time to pound and erode the beaches.

Plus, remember, Humberto is still out there and is a monster. Much like Erin in August, it will send swells and rough surf to the entire East Coast to augment what Imelda plans to do. 

We might be lucking out with our unfriendly couple Humberto and Imelda in that the U.S. avoids another direct hit by a hurricane. The two storms will cause trouble for us, but thankfully, probably no cataclysm. We don't need another one. 

No guarantees, but it's possible a hurricane might not make landfall in the United States this year. It's slightly past the peak of hurricane season, and there's plenty of time for tropical trouble in October. But so far, unlike the devastation of recent years, the U.S. might get a break from hurricanes. 

With all the other weather and climate disasters this year - and there has been many of them - along with the nation's political instability, we'll take any break we can.  

Pacific "Marine Heat Wave" Threatens Wildlife, Alters Weather, Is Sign Of Climate Change

Temperatures are far above normal in almost all of
the North Pacific from Asia to the North American
west coast. It's altering weather patterns over
a wide area. 

The entire northern Pacific Ocean is insanely warm, and its gobsmacking scientists, screwing up the environment and weather patterns and is increasing worries about climate change.  

 As CNN reports:

"A record-breaking and astonishingly expansive marine heat wave is underway in the Pacific Ocean, stretching about 5,000 miles from the water around Japan to the West Coast of the United States. 

The abnormal warm 'blob' of ocean water, which is getting a significant boost from human-caused global warming, is affecting the weather on land and could have ripple effects on marine life."

Water temperature in the north Pacific in August were the hottest on record.

The hot water has already contributed to making summer, 2025 the hottest on record in Japan. Lately, the warm water, combined with the remnants of tropical systems that originated off the coast of Mexico, has made California weather weird. 

It's been strangely humid off and on in the Golden State, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. It's weather you'd expect in places like Georgia or Louisiana, not California. 

When the winter storm season comes on the West Coast, the hot water could intensify the atmospheric rivers that occasionally come ashore anywhere from southeast Alaska and British Columbia all the way down to southern California. 

The added ocean heat could add moisture to the already sopping wet atmospheric rivers, increasing the chances of flooding. 

This isn't the first time there have been one of these big Pacific Ocean marine heat waves. They've been  hitting with increasing frequency and strength for more than a decade now. 

CNN again:

"As climate change causes more heat to be stored in the oceans, ocean temperatures are reaching new heights that could lead to more significant impacts from heat waves like this. 

The North Pacific warmed at the fastest rate of any ocean basin on Earth during the past decade, according to Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration."

These Pacific marine heat waves had huge effects on wildlife. Nearly one million common murries, died of starvation because the the warm water altered the food supply.  This was the largest known bird species die off on record. Other marine animals, such as  tufted puffins, sea lions and baleen whales. 

Marine heat waves are becoming more common everywhere in the world. According to a study in Nature, between 1925 and 2016 there was a 54 percent increase in annual marine heat wave days around the world.

Since climate change is making these marine heat waves worse and more frequent, these wildlife deaths paint an ominous picture of the future. 

As for the current Pacific marine heat wave,  it's possible the heat in the Pacific might be having an effect on overall atmospheric patterns. Nobody is yet sure, but the very dry, generally warm conditions that have put us here in Vermont into a deep drought might be partly related to the Pacific Ocean heat. 

It could also affect wintertime weather patterns. An intense marine heat wave in the Pacific messed with the jet stream during the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15. 

The hot Pacific water created a northward bulge in the jet stream in western North America, and that, in turn caused a serious southward dip in that jet stream into the middle and eastern parts of the United States.

Both winters were intensely cold in the Northeast and much of the Midwest, contrasting with the overall warming trend over the past few decades in those location. 

According to Accuweather Lead Long Range Forecaster Paul Pasterlok, the northern branch of the jet stream during a La Nina tends to bring fast moving, not so intense storms to the East, which tends to produce modest snowfalls and temperatures close to normal. 

Here in Vermont, we had our fourth coldest March in 2014 and our third coldest February in 2015. Boston had by far its snowiest winter on record in 2015.

Something similar could happen this winter, but before you panic over heating bills and snow-blocked roads, a cold winter is definitely far from a guarantee this year.

First of all, other atmospheric circulations will need to roughly match those cold winters of 2014 and 2015 to give us a repeat. That might not happen. Second, there's no guarantee the Pacific Ocean heat will last. 

In 2013 to 2016, the weird heat in the northeast Pacific, off the Canadian and U.S. west coasts, extended deep into the water. This year, the ocean heat doesn't go nearly as deep down as it did a decade ago. Normal autumn storms will likely bring cooler water to the surface, since waves won't have to dig deep to find that cooler water. 

Climate change or global warming has often been described as global weirding. The Pacific ocean heat is just one of many examples of that.  

Hurricane Humberto, Soon-To-Be Tropical Storm Imelda Begin Their Dangerous Dance

This morning's satellite phot shows powerful 
Hurricane Humberto spinning gracefully on the
right side of the photo, while what should become
Tropical Storm Imelda struggles to organize
near northeastern Cuba. 

The Carolinas, Georgia and Virginia are now on alert for that dance we told you about the other day between Hurricane Humberto and what will soon be Tropical Storm Imelda. 

They're going to be too close to each other, which means they might do weird things, like tumultuous romantic couples do. The two storms might try rotating around each other, or one will pull the other in odd directions or one of them might stall, you never know. 

This is a HUGE forecast headache for everybody, mostly because so much is at stake.  This situation has the potential to cause immense, life-threatening floods in the Carolinas.   

Following what has become a very common trend in Atlantic hurricanes, Humberto in the past couple of days blew up from a humble tropical storm to a Category 4 monster, with top wind speeds of 145 mph. It's possible it will end up as another Category 5 in the next day or so.

As of this morning, Humberto was churning a good distance - 375 miles or so - northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 

The good news in this messy scenario is Humberto will stay well offshore of the East Coast. A landfall would be devastating for a hurricane of this strength. So at least we avoid that. 

If not for wannabe Imelda, this situation would be very much like big powerful Hurricane Erin in August. Humberto will expand as it heads northwestward, then northward, then out to sea. It would throw some dangerous rip currents, and some coastal flooding here and there up and down the East Coast. 

IMELDA INTERFERES

But the East Coast is not out of the woods, thanks to Wannabe Imelda. As of early this morning, the center of what should become Tropical Storm Imelda was near the northeastern coast of Cuba. 

It might already be a tropical storm by the time you read this, because this thing was on the cusp of becoming one as of dawn Saturday. 

Early guesses is it will move northward through the Bahamas through early Tuesday, parallel to the Florida coast. 

But that's something of a guess, considering Humberto will also be lurking nearby, like a fickle Latin lover with his eyes on Imelda. 

By Monday morning, Imelda will probably be somewhere over the Bahamas while big, fat Humberto makes its closest approach to Imelda to its east. 

Because Humberto is so strong, it's probably going to be the boss in its relationship with Wannabe Imelda .The trouble is, Humberto isn't exactly being clear on what he's going to do with Imelda.

What follows is a scenario a lot of forecasters have settled on, at least as of Saturday morning. Definitely expect both changes to the hurricane predictions forecast and some surprises. The relationship between Humberto and Imelda could become soap opera-level tumultuous. 

THE TROPICAL TELENOVELA

At first, on Sunday and Monday, the two storms would roughly move in tandem toward the north or northwest, like a bride and groom walking down the aisle. 

Then Humberto would part ways, accelerating to the Northeast. That might tug Imelda east a little bit, as if it wanted to chase after Humberto. ("Please!!! Come back!!!,"  I can imagine Imelda wailing).

The tug east would be great as it might prevent a United States landfall. There would still be heavy rain, flooding, coastal surges, wind, that sort of thing. Bad for sure, but not a worst  case scenario.

But Humberto might do other things. It might initially tug at Imelda, but then leave it sitting there like a jilted date, just offshore of the Carolinas.  That would keep dumping and dumping rain on the eastern Carolinas, causing yet another unwanted catastrophic flood there. 

Unlike Helene last year, the big flood, if it happens, would mostly but maybe not completely avoid the mountains of western North Carolina. 

Or, after Humberto departs, Imelda might wander indecisively and erratically off the U.S Southeast Coast, maybe looking for another hurricane to hook up with. 

A wild card is we don't know how strong Imelda will get. If it remains a relatively weak tropical storm, Imelda would likely be more obedient to Humberto. If it develops into a stronger hurricane, Imelda might get annoyed at misogynistic Humberto and pull a surprise of her own. 

Then, all bets are off on what Imelda might do. 

I guess we just need to do what we do with all soap operas and telenovelas. Just sit and wait for the next  episode. Annoyed meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center are probably taking a cue from Carol Burnett and calling this mess between Humberto and Imelda "As The Stomach Turns."

VERMONT EFFECTS

Pretty much the only easy part of the hurricane forecast is how all this is going to affect us here in Vermont. The answer is: It won't.

Which means our drought will start to reintensify.

Some scattered showers Friday afternoon and evening were the icing on Thursday's welcome, delightful, soggy cake. For instance, a brief downpour dumped another 0.12 inches on Burlington.

While our tropical drama plays out far to our south, strong high pressure will park itself overhead. Some clouds might come in this afternoon and evening as a disturbance zips by to our south but no rain will come of it. 

Sunday and Monday and probably Tuesday look dry and warm and sunny.  Highs in the warmer valleys could touch 80 degrees, which is unusual but not unheard of for this time of year.

Humberto - far offshore by midweek - will be one of a few atmospheric factors that should pull even stronger, and cooler high pressure down from east of Hudson Bay later in the week. That will probably re-introduce the chance of frost for a couple mornings before warm, sunny weather returns afterwards.

It still looks like our next chance of rain in Vermont won't come along until October 9 or so.  

Trump War On First Amendment Continues: FEMA Letter Writers Under Investigation

The Trump administration is investigating
FEMA employees who signed an August
letter warning of mismanagement at
the agency. Loyalty to Trump, well,
Trumps public safety. 

Back in August, about 180 former and then-current Federal Emergency Management Agency staffers signed a letter saying staff DOGE cutbacks and incompetent leadership was endangering U.S. citizens who will inevitably experience terrible disasters like hurricanes and severe floods. 

The dissent letter noted there was no Senate-confirmed and qualified emergency manager running the show, there were cuts to disaster mitigation and recovery efforts and training programs. Also, new policies limited employee autonomy. Micromanagement was already slowing disaster responses.

The letter also urged against politically motivated firings. 

True to form, not much came of the letter, except, of course, an investigation by the Trump administration. And possible politically motivated firings. Gawd forbid anybody even faintly criticize anything he does. 

But we're not talking about the fate of a rich late night talk show host. This is potentially life and death if disaster strikes. But no matter. Dissenters must be punished, lives and the Constitution be damned. 

Per CNN:

"The Trump administration has launched an internal investigation into FEMA employees who signed a public letter to Congress warning that the administration's overhaul of the disaster relief agency is undermining emergency response and endangering the public.

As part of the prove, the agency has ordered the employees - who were placed on leave in August - to sign non-disclosure agreements and schedule interviews with investigators, according to five sources nd internal emails reviewed by CNN

At lest seven FEMA staff emails....from investigators at the Office of Professional Responsibility, which included the non-disclose forms, the sources told CNN."

Shortly after the letter became public, FEMA put some employees on paid leave, but didn't say how many. 

The emails employee received recently said the inquiry is not a criminal investigation (at least not yet, given Trump's reputation). 

Some of those were ordered to submit to interviews within 24 hours, with requests to seek legal counsel first ignored, according to CNN.

The non-disclosure form said targets of the inquiry couldn't tell anybody about it, "except as may be appropriate under applicable law."  Failure to adhere to the gag order would lead to discipline 

CNN says, "The non-disclosure specifies that the agreement does not supersede existing whistleblower protections. However, lawyers for the FEMA employees argue the investigation is an intimidation tactic and likely constitutes illegal retaliation against the workers for exercising their first amendment and whistleblower rights."

In August, similar dissent letters came from employees at the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Institutes of Health.

Staffers at the EPA have gotten similar messages to those their colleagues at FEMA received that announce this Trump administration investigation. 

You can be sure Trump, Ice Barbie Kristi Noem and other minions are not exactly investigating the facts of the August FEMA letter. That would make way too much sense.

.. 

Friday Vermont Update: Rain Was Nice, Helped A Little, Drought Will Reassert Itself

Thursday's Vermont rain was nice, and will help us a bit with the drought, so we can all be thankful for the mini-reprieve. 

Some pink late season flowers in my St. Albans, Vermont
perennial garden revived a bit in this week's rain, but the
hosta next to it is done for the season. At least the cactus
in the foreground did really well in our drought

As I have kept saying, though, the rain won't come close to solving our drought problems. But our wet Thursday was much better than having a whiff and a miss from yet another storm. 

It looks like Vermont came close to missing out on the rain, which of course would  have been bad. 

Had the track of the storm been a little further east, we would still be looking at dusty ground, or something close to it. 

The rain moved in a generally southwest to northeast path, with the northwestern edge of it near New York's St. Lawrence Valley. That area, and adjacent areas of Quebec, looks like they got just 0.2 inches of rain or less.

The rain was light compared to other areas of the state in northwest Vermont, but still beneficial.  Especially since rain hit northwest Vermont Tuesday but missed the rest of the region.   

My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 0.48 inches, and the total for the week was just a hair under an inch. Burlington  had  0.67 inches Thursday, with an inch total for the week. 

As soon as you got a little inland from Lake Champlain, rainfall totals picked tip nicely. Montpelier and St. Johnsbury got about an inch of rain Thursday. Rutland looks like they went over an inch. Bennington had a respectable 0.77 inches. 

Southeast Vermont and the central and souther Green Mountains were the big winners in the Green Mountain State.   Springfield, Vermont rejoiced with 2.6 inches of rain. Other particularly wet spots included 2.51 inches in Worcester, 2.19 inches in Starksboro, 1.99 inches in Danby and 196 inches in Windsor.

As for how Thursday's rain will affect the drought, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington tells us, via a response to a Facebook inquiry to them: 

"It is unlikely the area of D3 (extreme drought) will shrink any, despite recent rainfall. Changes to the drought monitor depend on drought reports, like well water information, and other factors to reshape the drought areas. Honestly, some locations were more than 10 inches low before the recent rainfall and the amounts received haven't come close to offsetting rain deficits."

So there you go. We need lots of very wet storms to recover. And we ain't getting 'em. 

RAIN SHUTS OFF

For most of us, Thursday's rain will be the last we see for a long while, as previous forecasts indicates. 

As a parting gift from our wet Thursday, a few last minute showers should pop up this afternoon.  A dying cold front coming from the north, and a disturbance moving in from the west should kick off the spotty rain. Probably less than 40 percent of us will see any rain, and those that do shouldn't get more than a tenth of an inch. 

A handful of lucky spots might see a quarter inch if any particular showers get heavier, but that's it. 

After that, sunny, dry weather will stick around for a long time. A weak storm might give southern New England a little rain Sunday, but only send a few clouds into Vermont. 

Toward Monday or Tuesday, the Carolinas might be dealing with a tropical storm or hurricane, but strong Canadian high pressure will block any of that moisture from making it up into New England. 

It will be warmer than normal into early next week, with high temperatures possibly flirting with 80 degrees Sunday and Monday. But as Canadian high pressure builds down from near Hudson Bay near the middle of the week, we'll have to start worrying about frost again. 

The cold front that will introduce the chillier air will be dry, of course, so no rain from that. I've been saying the next shot at rain around here would be around October 9. But some computer models are already starting to "cancel" that shot of decent showers, so maybe not. 

We'll have to wait and see until we get closer to that date to see if anything comes out of the sky. But otherwise, until then, it's back to your ugly, regulated scheduled New England drought.  

Dancing Hurricanes? Two Tropical Systems Off Southeast U.S. Coast Could Get Weird

Tropical storm Humberto, the blotch on the right
and what might become Tropical Storm Imelda, the
blotch of clouds near the center of the satellite
photo, are too close to each other. They might
end up dancing around each other in a circle,
which experts call the Fujiwhara effect. 

This weekend and early next week, we might see two hurricanes, or at least a couple tropical storms, do an odd do-si-do off the southeast U.S Coast.  

In essence, the two systems might participate in a meteorological dance craze known as the Fujiwhara.

 Sounds fun, but it's a horrible headache for meteorologists that need to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes. 

It's also a complicated set up. Kind of like if the dance was designed for advanced performers like Derek Hough and not amateurs like the rest opus. 

HOW IT'S WORKING

The trouble comes from what is now Tropical Storm Humberto, which at 11 a.m. this morning was in the middle of the tropical Atlantic, well northeast of the Leeward Islands. 

Humberto's top winds were only 50 mph as of 11 a.m., but the storm is expected to grow into a hurricane -possibly a rather powerful one - by Sunday or Monday. 

By then, Humberto is expected to be heading toward the northwest, well northeast of the Bahamas. 

That's an iffy forecast, thanks to another tropical disturbance starting to get going near the Dominican Republic. That thing is expected to move toward the northwest as well and develop into Tropical Storm Imelda. 

Wannabe Imelda would then move toward and into the Bahamas over the next few days, turning into a tropical storm or even hurricane. 

In the grand scheme of things, Humberto and wannabe Imelda will get pretty close to each other, at least in the opinion of our tropical storms. 

 That's where the Fujiwhara effect, or dance starts

The two storms find a spot halfway between the pair, and they rotate around that spot. CNN explains it better:

"Think about it like the final round of musical chairs: Two kids circle the same chair until the music stops. The Fujiwhara effect describes that dance, playing out on a much bigger scale."

Tropical storms and hurricanes are loners. They don't like each other, and don't want to be close together. Things get weird, much like a lot of bad dates do. 

If one storm is much weaker than the other, the more lame one might get absorbed into the stronger one. Every once in a great while, two hurricanes of similar strengths might become one bigger one, but that rarely happens.

More often, the storms will - I don't know - get dizzy and go off in opposite or strange or unexpected directions. 

That's why the fine folks at the National Hurricane Center might be dreading the next few days. There's probably going to be surprises. We don't even know yet whether the two storms will dance the Fujiwhara. (Thought as an aside, I think a choreographer should design a Fujiwhara for humans).

The best guess, at least for now, is that Humberto, which should turn into a hurricane, might or might not briefly dance with wannabe Imelda, then head off to the northeast, missing the United States much like Hurricanes Erin and Gabrielle did. 

The future of Wannabe Imelda is more iffy. We don't know whether it will become a full -fledged hurricane, but it might. Some projections bring it to a landfall in the Carolinas early next week.

Who knows? Expect lots of changes to the forecast.

By the way, the Fujiwhara effect is named after Japanese meteorologist Sakuhei Fujiwhara, who published a 1921 paper theorizing two storms would dance around each other. Once satellite views became common, we learned that the Fujiwhara dance exists among tropical storms and hurricanes.  

Off the dance floor, meanwhile,  Hurricane Gabrielle wants to avoid the whole drama and is getting out of Dodge - fast. 

The other day, it peaked as a huge hurricane with top winds of 140 mph while it was east of Bermuda. 

Now, Gabrielle is much weaker as it races eastward in pretty much the opposite direction of Humberto. Gabrielle's forward speed was 32 mph as of late this morning.  That's traffic ticket territory for a tropical system.  

Until now, Gabrielle hasn't hit any land, so it hasn't been that big a deal, despite its strength. However, Gabrielle is forecast to lash the Azores with hurricane force winds later today or tonight.

Gabrielle will finally run out of steam early next week over or near Portugal.

As The Rain Comes Down, The Vermont Drought Worsens

This morning's weekly U.S. Drought 
Monitor now shows extreme drought 
across central Vermont (red shading)
All the rest of Vermont except the 
extreme northwest and a tiny spot
near Brattleboro are in severe drought. 

The weekly U.S. Drought Report, out this morning, shows a definitely worsening trend in Vermont's drought. 

Yes, I know it's raining, but the data in the weekly report only goes through Tuesday, when it was barely starting to rain.  Next week's report will take into account today's rain. 

Despite today's frequent showers, the drought won't go away. We need much more than one rainy day to solve this problem. 

Let's take it piece by piece, starting with today's new drought report

WORSENING TREND

The weekly Drought Report rates droughts with increasing severity on scale going from moderate, severe, extreme to exceptional.

Last week, for the first time in this drought, extreme drought entered the picture in Vermont, covering a tiny sliver of the central Connecticut River Valley.  It covered about just 2 percent of Vermont's land mass

This week, extreme drought has spread across central Vermont, covering about a quarter of the state. 

Severe drought has expanded, too. It now covers virtually all of the state. Only tiny slivers in far northwest Vermont and a small spot near Brattleboro are "merely" in moderate drought. 

Over in New Hampshire, the drought worsened, too. About a quarter of the Granite State was in extreme drought last week. Now it's a third of the state. In Maine, extreme drought expanded in southern parts of the. And for the first time, all of Maine is at least abnormally dry, if not in drought 

In New York, the drought isn't quite as bad as it is in northern New England, but it's bad enough, and has worsened a bit since last week, the Drought Monitor tells us. There are no areas of extreme drought in New York, but severe drought expanded a little in New York's Champlain Valley and parts of the Adirondacks. 

The extreme drought in central Vermont almost touches the New York border in western Rutland County. 

EFFECTS

The effects of this drought are starting to cost us lots of money. Dairy farms are finding stunted corn, alfalfa and hay crops because of the dry weather. 

Houses are without water. Every morning when I turn on my tap I feel blessed that my well is still producing.  

Some people are resorting to hiring people to dig deeper wells, but that can cost tens of thousands of dollars. We are also seeing some businesses close. For instance, the Busy Bee Diner in Glover was closed at last report for lack of water. 

Fall foliage is looking muted. That fact, and the publicity surrounding the somewhat duller colors will cost Vermont a ton of revenue from tourists. To be fair, the foliage will still be gorgeous in many areas, but not as good as the past few years. 

Trees and shrubs are showing signs of drought damage, and some might end up dying. 

Check out the video at the bottom of this post for a look at what the drought is looking like along northern Vermont rivers, and in Lake Champlain. 

RAIN AND FORECAST

Forecasted rain from 8 a.m. today to 8 a.m. Friday
would give about a half inch in additional showers
north and more than an inch south. This is obviously
super welcome, but won't come close to 
ending Vermont's severe drought. 

While I was writing about the sentences about the extreme drought in Vermont that you just read, the rain outside my window briefly turned torrential. 

We'll ignore the fact that downpour stopped shortly after and no rain is falling now.   Still,  today's rain will be a temporary help. 

But it won't come close to erasing the drought. As I keep saying, it will take lots of heavy rain storms to solve this problem. 

Unfortunately, this continues to look like a temporary reprieve.

Through 9 a.m., southeast Vermont so far has the biggest reason to rejoice. It started raining in Springfield Wednesday afternoon, and so far they've received 1.45 inches. Lebanon, New Hampshire had clocked in with 0.67 inches through 9 a.m. 

Elsewhere in Vermont,  a quarter inch or less had fallen in most of central and northern Vermont. Burlington had 0.17 inches through 9 a.m. and St. Johnsbury 0.10.  An exception to the lighter rain in the north has been Franklin County, with those mid-morning downpours.  

The rest of today will be rainy.  The showers will stop at times. Other times, the rain will come down hard. Most of the time it will be light rain. 

For the rest of the day and through tonight, forecasts call for another half inch or so of rain in the north and a little over an inch of additional rain south.  

I have a feeling that this rain will make next week's Drought Monitor show perhaps slight improvement in Vermont, or at least not much worsening of the already bad drought in the Green Mountain State. 

The dry weather is coming back with a vengeance after the rain today, and the expected very light scattered, inconsequential showers forecast for Friday. 

Dry high pressure will establish itself over northern New England starting this weekend. It will stall over us or nearby and get incredibly strong. That means day after day of sunshine and dry air to evaporate what rain we got this week. 

Our next shot at any real rain after today doesn't look like it would arrive until around October 9 or 10. 

Video: 

Low water in Vermont rivers and Lake Champlain. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Donald Trump's Climate Remarks In UN Speech Were, Um, Something

Trump had some rather, um, interesting things to say
at the UN General Assembly Tuesday, including
some wild assertions regarding 
climate change and clean energy. 

That was quite a speech Donald Trump gave at the United Nations Tuesday. 

I wish I thought to count the number of untruths utter during the speech.  It sure had me reaching for my Tylenol, despite Trump and RFK's distain for the pain medication. 

Since this is a weather and climate blog, I'll ignore for all most of the problematic things Trump said on a wide variety of topics, and stick to the subject at hand here. 

Trump had plenty so say on climate change and clean energy in the rambling, hour long address.  They were things we heard from him before, that climate change is a hoax, that clean energy is bad, yada, yada, yada. 

Still, it's worth exploring just what he said, and doing some fact checking, just for laughs and giggles. 

As always, Trump has a remarkably dark vision of the world.

Climate change, he said, is "the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.....The carbon footprint is a hoax made up by people with evil intentions, and they're heading down a path of total destruction."

I suppose we can make a case that we are eventually "heading down a path of total destruction," but that's not because climate change is a hoax. It's more because that climate change is inflicting more and more and worse and worse weather disaster on the world's populace. 

Trump dismissed the often forecasts climate change scientists have made over the years. "All of these predictions made by the United Nations and many others, often for bad reasons, were wrong....They were made by stupid people."

Never mind that climate prediction models, even those made half a century ago, were more or less accurate. But I guess we have to ignore all that, since scientists with years of education and training are clearly just stupid people.

Trump stuck with the subject: "They said global warming will kill the world, but then it started getting cooler. So now they could just call it climate change, because that way, they can't miss. It's climate change, because if it goes higher or lower whatever the hell happens, there's climate change."

I think Trump is referring to a worn out trope about some publications way back when the Bee Gees were discoing their way to fame and fortune back in the 1970s. 

The world started to warm a bit starting near the turn of the 20th century as our burning of fossil fuels began to have an effect. But then there was a very slight cooling trend from the 1940s to the 1970s.  That cooling trend is now understood to be the result of air pollution that dimmed the sun a little. Plus a natural climate cycle contributed a tiny bit to that cooling. 

By the 1970s, sensationalistic magazines informed us based on that bit of cooling a new ice age was coming. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, most climate scientists were accurately convinced the world was going to warm up. 

They were right, obviously. Air pollution was cleaned up, the sun shone more brightly as a result, the climate cycle ended, and that's when climate change really rocketed up. 

Trump added another overused trope when he made that crack about the terminology regarding global warming changed to climate change.  Calling it climate change is actually more accurate. Sure, the world is warming up.  But that's causing bigger storms, bigger floods, bigger droughts. Saying it's global warming is incomplete since so many other things are going on, too. 

But anyway, Trump plowed on. 

"Immigration and the high cost of so-called green renewable energy is destroying a large part of the free world........Countries that cherish freedom are fading fast because of their policies on those two subjects. You need strong borders and traditional energy sources if you are going to be great again."

He had more to say on the topic.   

"(Europe) has a long way to go, with many countries being on the brink of destruction because of their green energy agenda....Both the immigration and their suicidal energy ideas will be the death of Western Europe."

It's probably way too much to get into immigration policy here, but I'm at a loss how clean energy will mean the end of nations. Trump didn't explain it, other than to say countries who have green energy policies allow the nations that emphasize fossil fuel to take all the manufacturing jobs somehow. 

Back in July, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres declared the world has "passed the point of no return" on the shift to renewable energy and said the fossil fuel era will end soon.  And I haven't seen evidence that nations with stricter green energy policies are doing worse than ones clinging to dependence on fossil fuel.

Trump also said that clean energy is too expensive and "doesn't work."  Which leaves me mystified.

If it doesn't work and is too expensive, why was 80 percent of the growth in electricity generation around the world from renewable and nuclear sources. And why does solar and wind account for 16 percent of U.S. electricity, surpassing coal?

You'd think the U.S. and other nations and international business interests would have long since abandoned renewables if they "didn't work." But whatevs. 

Trump had a wee bit of accuracy when it comes to China. He said China produces most of the world's wind technology, but doesn't use wind technology, Instead, it relies on coal and gas. 

That's partially true. Wind turbines and solar accounts for 20 percent of China's electricity generation, but China is still the world's largest coal consumer. In 2024 China accounted for 58 percent of global coal use.

It seems like much of the coverage of Trump's UN speech centered around a malfunctioning teleprompter and balky escalator at the UN. 

But Trump's climate and clean energy remarks, along with a whole host of other weird things he said. are an embarrassment to the U.S. And puts the world in just a little more danger it certainly does not need.  

One More Nice Slug Of Rain Coming To Vermont Before Drought Returns

National Weather Service rainfall forecast map through
Friday morning. We hope it comes true, as it gives 
more than an inch of rain to southern Vermont and 
three quarters of an inch or so to the north. 

One bit of minor drought relief is behind us here in Vermont, and another dose of rain is coming. 

But as I said yesterday, this will do little to solve our drought problems.  

As has often been the case since early August, what little rain we got focused on northwest Vermont. Some areas there got more than half an inch By contrast, many areas in far southern Vermont received less than a tenth of an inch Tuesday, which pretty much does no good.

You can tell how ineffective yesterday's rains were. There's still a high fire danger in Vermont today, according to the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation. 

Rains from tomorrow's storm should be more widely distributed than yesterday's mini storm.  I really hope the current forecast holds, because it gives close to 1.5 inches of rain through Friday morning in far southern Vermont and very roughly three quarters of an inch north.

That would put a small dent in the drought. However, we won't be able to see what kind of dent, if any, in the next weekly U.S. Drought Report, due out tomorrow.. That's because the data that goes into it ends on Tuesday. As noted, the rain yesterday would not have been enough to affect the drought one way or another. 

I think the report might end up showing a worsening situation, since there was no rain in Vermont leading up to Tuesday.  Of course, I'll do an update here tomorrow when that report comes out. 

FORECAST SPECIFICS

Many of us woke up to some dense fog this morning. The rain yesterday, combined with calm, humid air last night ensured the bad visibility on the roads when you were on the way to work this morning. 

The fog was burning off after sunrise. The rest of today will be kind of meh. 

Skies will be mostly cloudy, but with some breaks in the clouds, especially north. It will remain a little humid for this time of year. There could be a few showers, mainly south, but they won't amount to anything. Temperatures should reach the low 70s north, and maybe hold near the upper 60s south under somewhat thicker clouds. 

Tomorrow, a weak storm, but one with a nice slug of moisture with it, will come at us from the southwest and go almost directly overhead. Steady rains should blow in overnight tonight and continue tomorrow morning, and maybe into the afternoon. 

During the afternoon, the rain should turn more showery, but we're hoping there will be a lot of them. We might even see some local downpours and rumbles of thunder.  

We've been disappointed by weak rains so much, so I'm hesitant to get too optimistic. There's still time for things to go wrong and have the best rains miss us. But fingers crossed! 

GOING DRY AGAIN

Then, poof! The rain goes away. Seemingly forever. Our somewhat rainy week is turning out to be a brief blip in our dry weather pattern. That dry pattern returns enthusiastically this weekend.  

I suppose there might be a lingering shower Friday, but you'll barely notice it even if does rain. Then it's dry and warm again. We'll be back to lots of sunshine and low humidity starting Friday afternoon and going well into next week, 

Temperatures will be somewhat above normal as well. The warmer it is, the better evaporation you get, so even that's working against us. 

Meanwhile, something interesting might start to happen off the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend and early next week. It appears two tropical storms or even hurricanes might develop near and east of the Bahamas. 

When two such storms develop too close to each other, like what seems to be happening here, they do weird things. They can rotate around each other for awhile. The stronger of the two can absorb the weaker one. One or both can spin off and go in weird directions, 

This will give meteorologists major headaches trying to forecast what they will do.   Pass them the Tylenol, despite what President Trump might say about it.

The reason I even bring this up in this post is, we don't know how these storms might affect the U.S., if at all. As noted, it's too unpredictable. 

But the most certain part of this very uncertain forecast is that strong high pressure looks like it will deflect these storms well away from New England. Especially northern New England. 

I don't wish a hurricane on us, of course. But it would have been nice if one or both of these wannabe tropical storms flung some moisture our way. Miracles can happen, but it doesn't look like anything like that is in the cards.

Instead, it looks like Vermont will see almost no rain after tomorrow at least into mid-October. Oh, sure, some weak fronts might give us a little light rain from time to time between now and October 15. But so far at least, we have no more soakers after tomorrow, 

As I said yesterday, I hope I'm wrong about this!

Rainy Vermont Week Won't End Drought, Long Dry Spell To Restart This Weekend

Out of desperation, I put out buckets and such to collect
rain this morning to use later this fall. I'll need it to
water fall bulb planting and for transplanting
perennials. (I don't have a decent drain spout where
I could have collected the rain there). After a
fairly rainy week, another very long dry spell
is forecast to start Saturday. 

It was really nice to wake up this morning here in northwest Vermont to the sound of a steady drumbeat of raindrops on the roof and a gray, rainy view out my window. 

Northern Vermont made out the best with this morning's rain. We actually had a bonafide downpour here in St. Albans for awhile around 10 a.m. and a morning storm total of 0.47 inches.

Burlington had 0.3 inches through noon, Montpelier had 0.38 inches, and St. Johnsbury had 0.43 inches. 

Southern Vermont largely missed out. Through 1 p.m. Rutland and Springfield each had just 0.08 inches, and Bennington just 0.05.

As of early afternoon today, most of the rain is over.  We're left with cloudy skies, sporadic light showers, and a damp, vague humidity. Which is also nice after breathing in all that dust over the past few weeks. 

Our rain today was light enough to have virtually no effect on the drought, except for temporarily bringing down the wildfire risk. And maybe greening up your lawn a little. On Monday, Vermont and New Hampshire officials instituted statewide burn bans, despite forecasts of some rain. 

That's because any rain this week won't be enough to seriously dim the drought. Long range forecasts also call for a return to incessantly dry conditions. This week's rain is just a blip, not a weather pattern change. 

The wildfire risk will return. So, for now, no Vermont or New Hampshire town will issue you a burn permit to take care of that pile of brush out back. (I usually do my burn pile when there's snow on the ground in the winter to rule out a chance it would spread). 

Under the burn bans, you can't build a campfire in the woods. And for the love of God, please stop flicking your spent cigarettes down to the ground or out your car window. 

There's no word on when the burn ban will end. Falling leaves and vegetation doing its autumn dieback  normally increases the autumn fire danger during dry spells, The drought just makes everything more dangerous. This week's rain won't be enough to soak into dry, fallen trees and logs and branches in the woods, so the fire danger will probably return pretty quickly next week. 

Let's get into the specifics 

FORECAST DETAILS

The main slug of rain - all too brief - was moving off into New Hampshire and Maine as of 1p.m. 

The rest of this afternoon and evening will feature generally cloudy skies, a few widely scattered light rain showers here and there, somewhat humid air for late September and mild temperatures. 

Another slug of rain might go through far southern Vermont tonight but miss most of the rest of the state.  It'll be another rather warm night for this time of year. 

Tomorrow will bring more of the same: Lots of clouds, a few sunny breaks, warmish temperatures, vaguely humid air and a risk of a shower or two that won't amount to much of anything.  

Another modest storm with a fair amount of moisture with it for a change is due Thursday and Thursday night. If current forecasts stay accurate, that storm could give us another half to two thirds of an inch of rain. Not bad. It'll help a little, but not solve our drought problems. Unless it marks the start of a wetter weather pattern. 

Spoiler: Thursday's rains are not the start of a new weather pattern. Instead, we revert to the same thing we've seen during most of August and September. Big, fat, dry, slow moving high pressure systems are expected to resume coming through one after another. Each new sunny high pressure will be introduced by moisture-starved cold front that provides a sprinkle at most.

As it looks now, the last of the rain will depart Friday.  The first of those lame cold fronts might come through Saturday. At this point, it looks like it might sprinkle. 

Long range forecasts are always iffy, but they're worth looking at.  If the current projections are true, very little rain will fall between September 27 and at least October 9, and quite possibly beyond that. 

Which means any slight gains from this week's rain will be erased, and we'll end up with a drought even worse than the one we had as of Monday. 

I never like to be wrong, but in this case, I hope I'm terribly, terribly mistaken about the lack of rain. It would be wonderful if we end up seeing one storm after another. 

Most years, Vermonters hate long, gloomy rainy stretches of weather during autumn.  This year, we're all in for that kind of thing.  Nice weather has become a strange curse.  

Marjorie Taylor Greene's Hearing On "Weather Modification" Goes As You'd Expect

Marjorie Taylor Greene, ever the enthusiastic 
purveyor of conspiracy theories, held quite
a recent Congressional hearing on weather
modification. We give the play by play. 

While the madness of Trump and late night TV and First Amendment violations and other general stupidity was going on, our friend Marjorie Taylor "Jewish Space Lasers" Greene was hard at work. 

Her latest was leading a House hearing on weather modification, or more precisely, weird weather conspiracy theories.  

Greene is seeking a federal ban on geoengineering and weather modification. She's among those who appear to think like horrible disasters like Hurricane Helene were not regular events or climate change-driven calamities, but some insidious government plot.

Hence here hearing earlier this month.  She announced: 

"Today's advocates of geoengineering don't just want to address droughts or improve conditions for agriculture......They want to control the Earth's climate to address the fake climate change hoax to head off global warming. That of course, requires massive interventions."

Of course, pretty much every scientist will tell you climate change is not "fake" or a "hoax" and is the real problem behind many of the weird weather extremes the world has been experiencing. But to Greene's mind, we need to stop making sense, to take a page from an old Talking Heads album and concert movies.  

As ABC notes, there have been no efforts to modify the climate on a global scale, mostly because there's no technology to make that possible. 

Then we get into the "science" part of the hearing. And I use that term "science: more loosely than I ever have before. Greene gave us this dire warning:  

"One (intervention) is to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Yes, the same carbon dioxide that keeps plants alive and prevents mass starvation."

Of course the problem isn't that there's carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It's just that humanity has pumped too much of it into the air.  The whole burning fossil fuel thing. There are no mad scientists out there bent on removing all the carbon dioxide from the air to kill us all. 

There's been some tentative efforts to research efforts that would remove some of the CO2 from the air, but that hasn't really been effective at all yet. 

"Another method they want to use it to block the rays of the sun from hitting the Earth. You heard that right. Yes, the same sun that makes all life possible on Earth."

Sigh, again, there are no mad scientist trying to block all sunlight and kill us all.  As always with these whackadoodle statements, if you dig deep enough you find the tiniest kernel of truth amid the word salad. 

The idea of using technologies to reflect a portion of sunlight back into space to lower temperatures around the world has been around for decades. But there has been almost no real-world experiments with this. 

The Biden White House in 2023 produced a paper on this idea, known as solar radiation modification, but it was a general research roadmap which has so far gone nowhere to speak of.

No Marjorie Taylor Green hearing would be complete without her and like minded minions bringing up chemtrails. Repeatedly. Sigh. 

Chemtrails are fictional sprays coming out of aircraft, dreamed up by conspiracy theorists.  There's plenty of those theories, including ideas that the government is trying to poison the populace or do mind control on everybody or some bizarre thing, 

What all these people think are chemtrails is just water vapor from the exhaust of jet engines.

You know all that steam you see coming out of car tailpipes on frigid winter mornings? It's basically the same thing coming out of planes. Except often that water freezes and forms white streaks in the sky. They're just high level clouds. 

But wispy clouds are boring. Coming up with wild stories about covert government operations spraying us all into oblivion is much more sexy. 

 Some of Greene's cohorts came up with some wild bits of "information" which were, well, dubious to put it extremely politely.  Rep. Brian Jack, R-GA claimed a release of dry ice into a 1947 hurricane steered the storm into Georgia. 

It's true that the government released dry ice into a 1947 hurricane as an experiment. It's also true the storm made a hard left turn and came ashore near Savannah, Georgia. But the reason it did so was not the dry ice. It was steering currents in the atmosphere that would have been there with or without the dry ice. 

Besides, that hurricane started its westward turn before planes dumped anything into the storm. 

Also, experiments in the era also showed that dumping dry ice, or the more modern silver iodide used in clouds seeding failed to change the strength of hurricanes. They're much too powerful to succumb to human intervention, at least so far. 

Another one, Rep. Pat Fallon, R-Texas, said that Al Gore's estimation of when the polar ice cap was wrong, so therefore basically all climate science was wrong. 

In reality, there's an alleged quote by Gore from 2009 that the Arctic would be ice-free by 2013, which of course has not happened. 

Gore did not actually say that, but he did at the time accidentally misrepresented data when he suggest some models gave a 75 percent chance the Arctic would be ice-free in the summertime by 2014 to 2019. That's not exactly what researchers said, as they generally weren't giving a timeline as to when that would happen.

But, apparently, if one person -  Gore - got his facts mixed up on one aspect of climate change, then the whole idea of climate change is apparently false.  

Melanie Stansbury, D-NM, the ranking Democrat on the subcommittee that held the hearing, did come up with one gem that I would rate as absolutely factually true. 

She said: "There's a more insidious issue here, which I think we've already heard in some of the comments, which is using the platform of Congress to propel anti-science theories to platform climate denialism and to ultimately put our communities at risk by continuing to put out disinformation."