Southeast Reels After Big Snowy Nor'easter, Extreme Florida Freeze

The scene in New Bern, on the North Carolina coast this
morning. Photo from Storm Chaser Stephen Jones/Facebook

The second weird, extreme southern winter storm in a week is heading out to sea this afternoon, leaving some pretty incredibly winter scenes in the Carolinas. Meanwhile Florida is shivering in record cold.  
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The Southeastern United States is having a classic New England winter day, with deep snow on the ground, sunshine overhead with the storm headed away cold gusty northwest winds and temperatures in the 20s,  In Florida, morning lows were in the 20s. 

This is the second year in a row that an extreme snowstorm and record shattering cold hit the far south of the Lower 48. 

In January, 2025, an unprecedented snowstorm brought near blizzard conditions from New Orleans to Pensacola.   Florida set its all time record deepest snowstorm with 8.8 inches. Temperatures fell to all time lows of just 3 above not far from the coast in southwest Louisiana. 

This weekend's storm wasn't quite as extreme as last year's in the south. But it was close. 

SNOWY CAROLINAS

Visible satellite shows snow covering all of North 
Carolina and much of South Carolina today.
Those streaky clouds around Florida are caused
by frigid air flowing over warm water. It's the
same as lake effect snow clouds in the Great Lakes.
Flurries were seen as far south as Sarasota, Florida.

In North Carolina, 17.7 inches of snow fell in Longwood, which is near the coast. A foot of snow fell on Lake View, South Carolina, which is a a little north of and slightly inland from Myrtle Beach. 

In the Carolinas, the only two snowstorms that in memory that were bigger than this weekend's were  one that hit in December, 1989 and another in March, 1980. 

As skies cleared Sunday, satellite photos showed the rarity of snow covering all of North Carolina much of South Carolina and parts of eastern Georgia. 

Snow fell as far west as Atlanta, Georgia and the eastern half of Tennessee.

The storm caused a pileup involving up to 100 cars along Interstate 85 in Kannapolis, North Carolina. Traffic was snarled across the state as people who did venture out quickly got stuck. 

On the Outer Banks of North Carolina, one house fell into the ocean during the storm in Buxton. That's the 17th house to fall into the eroding shores in Buxton and Rodanthe, North Carolina since this past September. 

Video showed full blizzard conditions in Nags Head, on the Outer Banks of North Carolina last night. 

To add to the Outer Banks weather chaos, a large fire broke out at an unoccupied home in Nags Head. At last report the fire was largely contained. 

On the bright side, recovery from the storm in North Carolina will be easier than it was in places like Mississippi and Tennessee last week, which were hit by an extreme ice storm. The ice was followed bye days of subfreezing temperatures that did little to melt the mess. 

In the eastern Carolinas, temperatures should go a little above freezing tomorrow, and then highs for the rest of the week will be in the 40s to around 50. Not exactly warm for them, but it should help anyone trying to drive anywhere. 

FLORIDA

Snow flurries were seen as far as Sarasota, and St. Petersburg, Florida. Other flurries were seen in and around Jacksonville. 

The main story was the cold. In Orlando at 7 a.m, it was 25 degrees with a wind chill of 13. Miami was down to a record low for the date of 35 degrees with a wind chill of 26.  

The Florida freeze is part of a weather pattern that has brought oddly mild air to parts of the Arctic while shoving cold air far southward to where is almost never goes. Wind trajectory maps show the air made a straight shot from the North Pole to Miami.

Here's a great demonstration of how warm (for the Arctic) high pressure is making parts of the far northern part of the world warm, while frigid weather blasts places much further south. 

Orlando, Florida suffered through a record low temperature of 24 degrees this morning. Jacksonville, Florida hit 23 degrees and Tallahassee reached 21. Meanwhile, this morning's low in Nuuk, Greenland was 26.

 Orlando's records go back as far as 1892.

Other cities whose records don't go back as far as Orlando's set records for coldest for the entire month of February. Those include Daytona Beach, with 23 degrees, which broke the old February record of 24 degrees. Melbourne got to 25, breaking the mark for the entire month of February, which was 27. Vero Beach reached 26 degrees, breaking the old record low for the month of February, which had been 28 degrees.  

Florida homes are built to keep the hot air out, not the cold air. I'm sure there's going to be lots of trouble with frozen pipes, and people shivering in homes with inside temperatures in the 50s, 40s or worse. 

Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Wilton Simpson has already sent a request to the U.S. Department of Agriculture seeking a disaster declaration for what will surely be crop damage from the deep freeze.

You'll probably see higher produce prices at the grocery store due to the Florida freeze. The state sends crops like avocados, bell peppers, broccoli, celery, corn, cucumbers, radishes, strawberries, cabbage and citrus products to much of the nation during the winter.

Farmers have been trying to spray farm fields to cover everything with a light coating of ice. The ice actually protects plants from the frigid temperatures. Other farm fields were hidden from the cold by massive row covers. 

However, at one farm, the sprinklers malfunctioned in a field of blueberry bushes, crushing many of the plants under six inches or more of ice. 

Another hard freeze is due tonight across Florida. After that, things should get a little better. The upcoming week will be cooler than average, but far from record-breaking cold.  

Hurricane Humberto, Soon-To-Be Tropical Storm Imelda Begin Their Dangerous Dance

This morning's satellite phot shows powerful 
Hurricane Humberto spinning gracefully on the
right side of the photo, while what should become
Tropical Storm Imelda struggles to organize
near northeastern Cuba. 

The Carolinas, Georgia and Virginia are now on alert for that dance we told you about the other day between Hurricane Humberto and what will soon be Tropical Storm Imelda. 

They're going to be too close to each other, which means they might do weird things, like tumultuous romantic couples do. The two storms might try rotating around each other, or one will pull the other in odd directions or one of them might stall, you never know. 

This is a HUGE forecast headache for everybody, mostly because so much is at stake.  This situation has the potential to cause immense, life-threatening floods in the Carolinas.   

Following what has become a very common trend in Atlantic hurricanes, Humberto in the past couple of days blew up from a humble tropical storm to a Category 4 monster, with top wind speeds of 145 mph. It's possible it will end up as another Category 5 in the next day or so.

As of this morning, Humberto was churning a good distance - 375 miles or so - northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 

The good news in this messy scenario is Humberto will stay well offshore of the East Coast. A landfall would be devastating for a hurricane of this strength. So at least we avoid that. 

If not for wannabe Imelda, this situation would be very much like big powerful Hurricane Erin in August. Humberto will expand as it heads northwestward, then northward, then out to sea. It would throw some dangerous rip currents, and some coastal flooding here and there up and down the East Coast. 

IMELDA INTERFERES

But the East Coast is not out of the woods, thanks to Wannabe Imelda. As of early this morning, the center of what should become Tropical Storm Imelda was near the northeastern coast of Cuba. 

It might already be a tropical storm by the time you read this, because this thing was on the cusp of becoming one as of dawn Saturday. 

Early guesses is it will move northward through the Bahamas through early Tuesday, parallel to the Florida coast. 

But that's something of a guess, considering Humberto will also be lurking nearby, like a fickle Latin lover with his eyes on Imelda. 

By Monday morning, Imelda will probably be somewhere over the Bahamas while big, fat Humberto makes its closest approach to Imelda to its east. 

Because Humberto is so strong, it's probably going to be the boss in its relationship with Wannabe Imelda .The trouble is, Humberto isn't exactly being clear on what he's going to do with Imelda.

What follows is a scenario a lot of forecasters have settled on, at least as of Saturday morning. Definitely expect both changes to the hurricane predictions forecast and some surprises. The relationship between Humberto and Imelda could become soap opera-level tumultuous. 

THE TROPICAL TELENOVELA

At first, on Sunday and Monday, the two storms would roughly move in tandem toward the north or northwest, like a bride and groom walking down the aisle. 

Then Humberto would part ways, accelerating to the Northeast. That might tug Imelda east a little bit, as if it wanted to chase after Humberto. ("Please!!! Come back!!!,"  I can imagine Imelda wailing).

The tug east would be great as it might prevent a United States landfall. There would still be heavy rain, flooding, coastal surges, wind, that sort of thing. Bad for sure, but not a worst  case scenario.

But Humberto might do other things. It might initially tug at Imelda, but then leave it sitting there like a jilted date, just offshore of the Carolinas.  That would keep dumping and dumping rain on the eastern Carolinas, causing yet another unwanted catastrophic flood there. 

Unlike Helene last year, the big flood, if it happens, would mostly but maybe not completely avoid the mountains of western North Carolina. 

Or, after Humberto departs, Imelda might wander indecisively and erratically off the U.S Southeast Coast, maybe looking for another hurricane to hook up with. 

A wild card is we don't know how strong Imelda will get. If it remains a relatively weak tropical storm, Imelda would likely be more obedient to Humberto. If it develops into a stronger hurricane, Imelda might get annoyed at misogynistic Humberto and pull a surprise of her own. 

Then, all bets are off on what Imelda might do. 

I guess we just need to do what we do with all soap operas and telenovelas. Just sit and wait for the next  episode. Annoyed meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center are probably taking a cue from Carol Burnett and calling this mess between Humberto and Imelda "As The Stomach Turns."

VERMONT EFFECTS

Pretty much the only easy part of the hurricane forecast is how all this is going to affect us here in Vermont. The answer is: It won't.

Which means our drought will start to reintensify.

Some scattered showers Friday afternoon and evening were the icing on Thursday's welcome, delightful, soggy cake. For instance, a brief downpour dumped another 0.12 inches on Burlington.

While our tropical drama plays out far to our south, strong high pressure will park itself overhead. Some clouds might come in this afternoon and evening as a disturbance zips by to our south but no rain will come of it. 

Sunday and Monday and probably Tuesday look dry and warm and sunny.  Highs in the warmer valleys could touch 80 degrees, which is unusual but not unheard of for this time of year.

Humberto - far offshore by midweek - will be one of a few atmospheric factors that should pull even stronger, and cooler high pressure down from east of Hudson Bay later in the week. That will probably re-introduce the chance of frost for a couple mornings before warm, sunny weather returns afterwards.

It still looks like our next chance of rain in Vermont won't come along until October 9 or so.  

Report: Helene Dumped The Equivalent Of The Entire Contents Of Lake Tahoe On Southeast U.S.

United States rainfall from September 24 to 29. Click
on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.
That bright purple splotch in western North
Carolina represents about two feet of rain. 

 Hurricane Helene combined with the "predecessor rain event" associated with that storm in the Southeast dumped 40 trillion gallons of water on the region.  

The Associated Press reports:

"That's enough to fill the Dallas Cowboys stadium 51,000 times, or Lake Tahoe just once. If it was concentrated just on the state of North Carolina, that much water would be 3.5 feet deep. It's enough to fill more than 60 million Olympic-size swimming pools."

It would also take 619 days for that amount of water to flow over Niagara Falls, on average.

The rainfall amount was calculated by meteorologist Ryan Maue, a former NOAA chief scientist. 

Other meteorologists checked Maue's work, and said his work looks pretty damn accurate. If anything, Maue might have underestimated the rainfall a little. 

The AP reports: 

"'That's an astronomical amount of precipitation,' said Ed Clark, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Water Center in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. 'I have not seen something in my 25 years of working at the weather service that is this geographically large of an extent and the sheer volume of water that fell from the sky."

The town of Busick in western North Carolina received 31.33 of rain. Other locations not far from Asheville received more than two feet of rain. 

Also, this was the second mega-rainstorm parts of North Carolina within just two weeks. On September 15-16, a stalled storm along the North Carolina coast that tried and failed to turn into a tropical storm still managed to dump 20.81 inches of rain on Carolina Beach and a foot to a foot and a half of rain in southeastern part of that state. 

Obviously with that much rain, extensive flooding was reported in that area. 

We should expect to see more and more of this in the coming decades as climate change continues to intensify. Warmer air can hold more moisture, and under the right conditions, can dump ever heavier amounts of rain. 

This is leading to more frequent and worse flooding in many areas. Us Vermonters know a thing or two about that given the events of the last two summers. 

Maue and others point out there were mega-floods well inland from coastal areas associated with both tropical and non-tropical systems well before climate change was a thing. 

That is true. Western North Carolina had a highly destructive flood like Helene back in 1916, though that one wasn't quite at the level of the one they just experience. 

In August, 1969, Hurricane Camille smashed ashore in Mississippi as a deadly Category 5 storm. It was one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to hit the United States. The remnants of Camille moved on to the mountains of western Virginia, where it dumped up to 27 inches of rain. That unleashed flooding that killed at least 150 people.   

Even here in Vermont, an offshore former tropical storm fed deep moisture into the state, creating the Great Flood of 1927.

So yes, big floods have always occurred. But it's happening more often and these things are getting wilder.

Associated Press again:

"Before 2017's Hurricane Harvey, 'I said to our colleagues, you know, I never thought in my career that we would measure rainfall in feet,' Clark said. 'And after Harvey, Florence, the more isolated events in eastern Kentucky, portions of South Dakota. We're seeing events year in and year out where we are measuring rainfall in feet."

For now, the nation is getting a brief break. Forecasts for the Lower 48 over the next two or three days show the least flood threat overall in months. However, southern and central Florida could see torrential rains and flooding starting early next week from a potential weak but slow-moving tropical system that's forecast to be in that area.  

 

"Not Tropical Storm" Unleashes Tropical Storm Conditions On Carolinas

High clouds from I guess we can call Failed But Not
Failed Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight beginning'
to stream into Vermont skies this morning. 

 What was knows as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (sexy name!) over the weekend failed to live up to that potential on Monday.  

But to people in the Carolinas, that failed potential didn't matter. They still got socked with what amounted to a gusty torrential, flood creating tropical storm. 

Some storm systems - especially this time of year - can feel like tropical storms even when they're not. These things need to meet certain criteria to be designated as a tropical system.

Over the weekend, a storm formed along an old cold front off the Carolina coast. The presence of the front meant it wasn't tropical. For one, there was a temperature gradient from northwest to southeast across the system, which is something you did see with tropical storms and hurricanes. Plus, this thing didn't have an exact center.

Still, the National Hurricane Center designated the storm Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight. The storm was over warm Gulf Stream waters, and the forecasters figured it might acquire the characteristics of a tropical storm.  They were poised, if necessary, to re-name it Tropical Storm Helene.

Helene never happened. The storm never did have a nice center with winds swirling relatively evenly around it.  Also, temperatures increased as you moved northwest to southeast across its cloud mass, meaning it was more of a "regular" storm.

But to people in parts of North Carolina, this was a storm to be reckoned with.  It poured up to a foot and a half of rain near the city of Wilmington, causing what the National Weather Service called life-threatening flash flooding.  Winds right along the coast gusted to between 50 and 70 mph.  Storm surges eroded already fragile beaches on the Outer Banks. 

For all practical purposes, North Carolina was indeed smacked by a strong tropical storm, even though it technically wasn't one. 

WHAT'S NEXT

This Not-Helene Not Tropical Storm headed inland and is mostly dissipating. Its remnants will head northeast, eventually going off the coast south of New England. 

For us in Vermont, this phantom storm will help shake up and slightly alter, but not end our ongoing stretch of dry, warm weather. 

First, starting today, this thing is throwing a veil of high clouds across the sky over Vermont. That'll  dim the sun a little, and hold daytime temperatures back by a couple degrees. It will still be unseasonably warm today and tomorrow, but those high clouds will make the blue sky, already a little hazy with wildfire smoke, even less blue.

Eventually, the former storm will help tug a back door cold front our way. It's called back door because it's coming at us from the "wrong way."  Normally, cold fronts come from the west or northwest. This one is coming to our "back door," i.e. from the northeast.

This will drop temperatures by the weekend down to levels that are merely slightly warmer than average, not super warm.

We might even squeeze a sprinkle or two in a few spots out of this slight change, but overall, high pressure will keep dominating, and the long, long September dry spell will continue. 

There's something else I need to stomp out right now.  You might see people who seeking social media clicks say a major hurricane will hit New England on or around September 29.

It ain't happening. Or at least the chances of it happening are ridiculously low. There was one lonely computer model that had such a hurricane hitting New England at that point.  That was just one of many, many models. The other models don't have such a storm anywhere around us. 

Plus, you can't predict the path of a hurricane that hasn't even formed yet, and might not ever even form at all.  

Eventually, it will rain.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see some rain on the closing days of this month. But a destructive hurricane? No. 

Winter Storms In Weird Places Next Few Days, Nothing Of Note Here In Vermont

To lighten the mood during a snow and ice storm in South
Carolina Sunday, police arrest Elsa from Frozen for
bringing the winter weather. Elsa's not done yet. Another
winter storm is due in the Carolinas Friday and Saturday

We routinely go under winter storm watches this time of year here in Vermont. We just had such advisories the other day with that storm Monday. 

But nothing substantial is in our foreseeable future, but winter storms are hitting places that are not the usual targets. Like far southern Texas.  And, for the second time within a week, the Carolinas.

Texas is facing a classic "Blue Norther," in which cold air from Canada has an unfettered shot at heading south, blocked by absolutely no mountains from the northern Plains all the way down to the Rio Grande Valley. 

Moisture will try to ride up and over the shallow layer of cold air that will take up residence in South Texas Thursday night, so a winter storm watch is up for this odd place for some freezing rain and sleet.

Thankfully, this cold wave will be not nearly as intense or as long lasting as the one in Texas last February that trashed the state's electrical grid and caused hundreds of deaths.  

Next up, the Carolinas, which are still trying to recover from the big snow and ice storm that hit the two states Saturday.

The same expansive Arctic high pressure that will freeze South Texas will keep the Southeast quite chilly, too.  As the cold air comes in, a storm will try to get going off the Carolina coast. This will throw moisture back into the Carolinas to mix with the cold air.

Areas closer to the coast that did not get freezing rain and sleet Sunday will probably get it this time. Freezing rain is forecast to make it all the way to the coast, hitting cities like Wilmington, North Carolina and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. 

Central North and South Carolina, including big cities like Raleigh, should get at least a couple inches of snow and sleet.

 This part of the nation isn't really built for winter storms. A couple inches of snow and sleet for us in New England is no biggie, but for Southerners, it's game over. 

The huge Arctic high pressure that is messing things up in Texas and the Carolinas is screwing things up in Vermont, too.  In our case, it's preventing us from getting any more needed snow.

The high pressure will help squash that developing storm in the Carolinas to the south, and at this point, it looks like that storm will go much to far to the south and east to have any effect on us in Vermont. 

For us the small "Alberta Clipper" that will introduce us to that next Arctic shot is producing snow showers and gusty winds in northern Vermont this morning. Snow accumulation in most places should be an inch or less.

The brief cold blast from yesterday brought temperatures into the single numbers and teens below zero last night before temperatures started rising again. (Island Pond in the Northeast Kingdom got down to 22 below).

Temperatures might actually briefly rise above freezing in some spots this afternoon because of strong south winds. 

The storm's cold front will come through tonight with a round of snow showers to begin the cold snap.  The front looks like it might briefly slow down or stall near southern New England tomorrow morning, creating a potential commuter nightmare from Washington DC to Boston. 

For us in Vermont, just cold. 

Those Storms Detouring Around Us Are Dusting South With Snow

Image via Twitter of fresh snow this morning
in Roan Mountain, Tennessee

 In this here blog thingamajig, I've been noting over the past few days that storms are taking a big detour around us.    

There's still a big traffic jam for weather systems in the Atlantic Ocean and much of North America gumming up the normal general east to west flow of storms and breaks in the weather across the nation. 

Meanwhile, storms and disturbances coming off the Pacific Ocean have to go somewhere. So, instead of getting up in the traffic jam in the northern and Northeast United States, these storms are diving toward the south, around the mentioned traffic jam. 

That means it's snowing pretty far south. 

The air over the United States in general isn't that cold for this time of year. But it's January,so there's enough of it for snow. Plus, storms can generate their own cold air, especially in the upper atmosphere. 

Thus, if you're on the north side of a storm, it can snow, even if you're pretty far south. 

Since these detouring storms are really taking a southern route,  it's easy to be north of them. Which means you get southern snows. 

There's one this morning depositing snow in eastern Tennessee, western and central North Carolina and the northern tip of Georgia. Most of the snow is coming in the mid and high elevations, where a general four to eight inches of snow is forecast by the time it all ends later today. 

Then, another storm is taking that southern detour. This next one is forecast to dump more snow, possibly heavy, in northern and central Texas toward Sunday and Monday. 

Now, it's not super unusual to get snow in the locations I've mentioned.  Snow doesn't happen every day there, but it's an occasional issue. It's just odd because we up in snow country are not getting affected by these systems. No new snow here to speak of.

Both these storms will become nor'easters off the East Coast, but they will develop much too far off the East Coast to have any effect here in Vermont.  The two storms will follow each other way up into the North Atlantic, then eventually curve back northwestward toward Greenland.

The traffic jam weather pattern is showing signs of getting unstuck toward the end of next week, so the weather here might finally become a little more active.