Not Necessarily "Nice" Vermont Weather In The Traditional Sense, But We Need The Rain And Gloom

After a long winter of snow prediction maps, it's nice to
post rain prediction maps. If this is accurate, most of us
should see an inch of rain by the end of the day Friday.

The Vermont weather forecast for today and tomorrow is great for people who prefer to stay indoors anyway. But not so much for those who like to spend time out in their gardens. 

But those gardens need drinks of water and those should get a Big Gulp serving today and tomorrow. 

For now anyway, the predicted amount of rain is pretty generous. This morning through Friday morning, the National Weather Service is predicting an inch of rain, give or take for most of Vermont. 

The Northeast Kingdom will probably get a little less than that. Some spots in central Vermont could close in on an inch and a half.

Of course, I'm sort of counting those proverbial chickens before they hatch. The arrangement of little storms and moisture flows over the next couple of days is touch and go and a little uncertain, so a lot can go wrong to cheat us out of a soaking rain. 

But if this rainy spell turns out as expected, we'l come closer to normal rainfall for this point in the season. 

Vermont still has a bit of a hangover from last year's drought. And precipitation so far this year is just meh, coming up short in most of the state. 

Through yesterday, May 12, Burlington has had 1.13 inches less precipitation than normal. That's not a drought, but it's definitely not sopping wet, either. Montpelier was 1.62 inches behind schedule in the rain department for the year so far. 

Rutland is even worse, running 2.3 inches under what we should have gotten up to this point in the year. North Springfield, an area of the state that is still official in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, is short 4.36 inches of rain as of yesterday. 

Only the southwest and northeast corners of Vermont are closer to normal. St. Johnsbury as of yesterday was within a quarter inch or so of normal. Bennington was short by only about two thirds of an inch. 

The expected rain this week will narrow, but not erase the precipitation gap. 

Let's do the details:

TODAY: 

It dawned cloudy today, as expected. It was still a little frosty early this morning in eastern Vermont, but not anything particularly damaging to crops and gardens. 

It was in the 40s in the Champlain Valley. This might be a spoiler to the extended forecast, but - unless there's some real surprises in our future - I think the Champlain Valley's threat of frost has passed until this coming fall. The rest of Vermont, well, just hang in there. 

Rain was moving into Vermont as we approached the 9 a.m. hour. It looked like rain was coming down a pretty good clip in New York state, but I think it might lighten up a little once it embraces the Green Mountain State. 

Still, it''ll be a rainy, chilly day. Highs should only get into the 50s. We'll probably get a quarter inch of rain, maybe a little less in spots. The rain will tend to diminish this evening and early tonight. At least temporarily. 

TOMORROW

Also looking rainy. But there will be a bit of dance going on between the decaying upper level low that is now coming in from the west, a small storm we think will develop in southern New England tomorrow, and a stronger storm well offshore. 

But the thinking is that weird atmospheric dance should shove some Atlantic moisture northwestward to us here in Vermont, giving a continued soaking rain. The rain should be even heavier in eastern New England, but I don't expect anybody in the region to see any flooding. Just a good soaking. Again, fingers crossed.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Ahhh the warmth arrives. Friday should show slow improvement, as clouds and maybe morning showers should give way to some sun, especially north and west. It should get into the 60s, so not too bad!

And then, a warm weekend! Yes, that means highs right up there in the 70s. Balmy! almost summer-like, aside from the cool but not cold nights. And spoiler: Some forecasts bring us into the 80s by Tuesday. 

In other words, we get a nice reward after the chilly, rainy weather we're in for. 

 

Unexpected Clouds Rescued Most Of Vermont/North Country From A Nasty Freeze

The sky looked chilly over St. Albans yesterday, leading
to forecasts of freezes and frosts. It did get cold last
night, but it was a couple degrees warmer than 
forecasts, so no hard freezes. That was good
for vulnerable plants and crops.

For the most part, it didn't get quite as cold in most of Vermont overnight, thanks mostly to some unexpected clouds that covered the skies over northern parts of the state early this morning. 

Clouds tend to hold in heat, so it ended up a few degrees warmer than it otherwise would have been.

Under clearer skies, Bennington did manage to get to at least 31 degrees, and Rutland was at 32.  

Most of northern Vermont away from the Champlain Valley were also in the low 30s, so there was at least light frost around. But we had no hard freezes except in the coldest hollows where the growing season hasn't really started anyway. 

The Champlain Valley remained mostly frost free, though Middlebury. a little south of that cloud cover, did manage to touch 32 degree.  It looks like Burlington bottomed out at a reasonable 39 degrees. which won't even be the coldest night this month. It was 37 degrees on May 8.

Until recent years, it would almost always get below freezing in Burlington during May. That has changed with climate change intensifying. Since 2011, May temperatures in Burlington have touched 32 degrees on only three occasions. 

Judging from weather forecasts, Burlington will not see any freezing temperatures this May, either. 

FORECAST

The good news is it's going to get wet. We actually need the rain. And eventually, it's going to get warmer. 

Today

The clouds in the north should at least partly clear out today.  If it all works out, we'll end up with a classic cool May afternoon. Sun will mix with clouds and highs will only reach the 50s, which is a good ten degrees cooler than average. 

With such a cool days in store, you'd think we'd be in for another frost and freeze risk tonight. There might well be areas of frost, especially in central and eastern Vermont, but overall, tonight will be a bit warmer than last night. 

That's because more clouds will be coming in. This will introduce a fairly long stretch of wet weather.

Wednesday/Thursday

There's some debate as to when the rain will start Wednesday. Could be early in the morning, could be in the late morning. But it's not going to be a nice day. Another stay indoors day for sure. It'll be rainy and cool, with chilly southeast breezes. Once again we'll  only get into the 50s. 

The storm coming in from the west will eventually transfer to a new, sluggish system on or near the New England coast. That will keep moisture coming inland across the region. That means on and off rain through Thursday. 

Early estimates say most of us would get between a half and three quarters of an inch of rain out of this, with maybe bit less right near the Canadian border.  A few spots central and south could get over an inch of rain. 

Friday/Weekend

That offshore New England storm will probably keep clouds and some showers going on Friday, but my early guess is it won't be a washout. And it'll be a little warmer, with highs in the 60s.

The weekend looks pretty good. There is a slight chance of showers, I suppose, but we'll also a fair amount of sun, fingers crossed. The bigger news is the temperature: It should get to at least near 70 degrees each day. 

The entire weather pattern is changing.  For the rest of May, chilly blasts of air will have a much more difficult time coming in from Canada than they did during the first half of the month. There might be a cool day thrown in here and there. But otherwise we'll launch into what I call pre-summer. 

The weather will be almost summery, but not quite. That means lots of 70s and for almost all of us, no chance of nighttime more frosts.

Let those gardens grow! 

Frost, Freezes In Vermont Tonight. Protect Those Gardens

Tree foliage frozen to death during a destructive 
freeze in May, 2023.  Freeze warnings and frost
advisories are in effect in and around Vermont
tonight. It won't be as bad as 2023, but 
sensitive plants and gardens will 
need protection tonight. 

After a cool, cloudy afternoon in Vermont we're in for a frosty night with freezes, so it's time to cover sensitive plants and protect crops.    

The clouds and light showers north will tend to evaporate as the sun goes down this evening. Temperatures this afternoon were only in the 50s, so readings won't have far to go to get close to the freezing mark. 

Eventually, skies will become clear, which would make it even colder.  

So: A freeze warning is up for all of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom, the Champlain Valley and the lower Connecticut River Valley south of Springfield. 

In those areas covered by the freeze warning, expect temperatures to fall to between 29 and 32 degrees by dawn. The freeze could damage crops and gardens. 

We'll have to watch apple and strawberry growers and wineries. This won't be as bad a freeze as the one in May, 2023, which cost farmers and other growers roughly $10 million in crop losses.  

The freeze tonight will not feature temperatures as low as on May 18, 2023. Also, that year featured a really premature spring, much more than this year. So plants and blooms were further along than they are this year, which left them more prone to damage. The hard 2023 freeze also covered the entire state, causing damage all across Vermont. 

Still, this one could be expensive, if farmers aren't able to take measures to protect crops, or if it unexpectedly gets colder than forecast. 

The Northeast Kingdom is not under any advisories or warnings because the growing season has not really started yet in that colder corner of Vermont. 

A frost advisory is in effect for all of the rest of Vermont I haven't mentioned yet. Except Grand Isle County. The islands in Lake Champlain should stay safely above freezing due to the comparatively warm lake water that will temper the chill in the air just a little. 

There might be some frost away from Lake Champlain tomorrow night, too. But increasing cloudiness and a warming air mass means it won't be as cold tomorrow night as tonight will be. 

Spring Is The United States Storm Season: Dramatic Videos Prove It

Damage from an extreme hailstorm in Springfield, Missouri
in April. Video of the storm is in this post, Photo from 
Springfield Daily Citizen via Facebook

As we all know, spring is the tornado and storm season in the United States. That always leads to some pretty dramatic videos.   

We've got some of them here to let you gawk at Ma Nature at her angriest. Let's get right to it: 

During an outbreak of tornadoes on April 17, the town of Lena, Illinois was hit hard. The tornado was seriously wrapped in rain, so you couldn't see the actual funnel. 

And the parts of town that weren't' actually hit by the tornado were hammered by a wall of intense rain and wind that did its own damage .

The tornado itself was an EF-2 with top winds of 130 mph. 

The video is a web cam that recorded the maelstrom moving into the city. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Also, there's another Lena web cam that has a different perspective basically overlooking the entire town. Click on this link to view that one. 

In our next video, we see the benefits of obeying the safety rules when a tornado seems imminent. 

Two women were keeping track of a tornadic storm on their phones as they sat in the kitchen of a Minnesota home. 

When the wind suddenly picked up. The women quickly decided to run downstairs, with their two dogs in tow.  See in the video what happened next. Spoiler: The women made the right decision. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

On April 23, a massive tornado, an EF-4 with top winds of 170 mph, struck part of northern Oklahoma. It hit the southern edge of Vance Air Force Base before sliding along the southeast corner of Enid, Oklahoma.  It wiped out about 40 homes in a subdivision, but miraculously didn't kill anybody. There were ten relatively minor injuries.

The video below shows that as bad as this tornado was, things would have been much, much worse, had its path been the same, except displaced a little bit to the northwest. Enid is a city with a population of about 51,000. Had it gone through the middle of town, the destruction would have been extreme 

The video is a time lapse from a web cam that overlooks downtown Enid. You can see the tornado come  in from the right side of the view.  It eventually gets lost in an area of torrential rain, but it was still causing its damage even when it was invisible in the rain. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Springfield, Missouri was hammered by a huge hailstorm on April 28. Some of the stones were at least softball sized, so you can imagine the damage. Sadly, the hail killed an emu at the local zoo. An unknown number of cars were damaged or destroyed, but the number of vehicles wrecked had to be in the thousands.  

At the Springfield-Branson National Airport, hundreds of cars left in the parking lot by people who flew to wherever were trashed, with busted out windows and huge dents. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"Some passengers had to be buses around 100 miles away to the airport in Bentonville, Arkansas because rental cars were damaged. (Airport Public Information Officer Ren) Luebbering said airport staff spent three hours covering the most badly damaged vehicles with donated tarps. 'We think we put 300 or 400 tarps out there on cars," Luebbering said. The airport warned online, 'Expect damage to your vehicle."

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Here's another view of the chaotic Springfield, Missouri hail storm. Again, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 On April 28, an EF-3 tornado caused a lot of damage in Mineral Wells, Texas. The tornado was wrapped in rain and hard to see. In this video. people in a car inadvertently drive to very near the edge of the tornado. The wind is howling on this freeway and debris fills the air. Pretty scary! As always, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

During another round of severe weather in the South,  storm chaser Daniel Shaw was driving near Monterey, Louisiana. They didn't see any tornadoes, but the lightning really put on a show. The video shows plenty of lot of lightning strike and Shaw kept saying they are not getting out of the vehicle. 

The end of the video is what really shocks, literally. Shaw is parked in a Family Dollar parking lot when the building gets hit by lightning. Let's 

 As always click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: 

Storm chaser Aaron Rigsby's videos often make an appearance in these video highlight posts I occasionally issue. This is not technically one of Rigsby's videos but he stars in it. 

That same batch of lightning barrages affected Rigsby. He was chasing severe storms in Mississippi when lightning struck the Toyota Rav 4 as he sped down a highway. The car is toast.  Rigsby said he is OK, but felt the buzz of electricity when it struck.  He got into another storm chaser's car to continue the hunt for tornadoes.

Inside Edition has the story. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on this. 

So here's something different: A time lapse of an enormous iceberg passing by the town of Ilulissat, Greenland on April 13.  Looks like a mountain kind of saying, "never mind me, just passing through, I'll be out of here in no time. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Frosty Times In Vermont As Long Awaited Warm Weather Is Postponed A Bit M

Late afternoon sun lights up this spring scene in 
my St. Albans, Vermont back yard on Sunday.
Cool weather will preserve the flowers for
awhile, but sensitive plants are staying inside
tonight because of a frost risk. 

Morning showers yesterday, some unexpectedly heavy in northwest Vermont, gave way to a beautiful, breezy and mild Mother's Day. But also as expected, that nice weather yielded to a frosty morning in parts of Vermont this morning.  

Most places away from the Champlain Valley were in the low and mid 30s, which brings us into frost territory. 

The cool weather will go on all week, as some changes in the forecast have postponed some long awaited warm weather. But those balmy conditions are still on the way. Eventually.   

Let's take a gander at this week's cool weather. 

TODAY

Clouds will mix in with the sun this afternoon, especially north and mountains, as a very, very wimpy little disturbance passes by. There might even be a light shower or sprinkle in a few spot. Highs will hold in the mid and upper 50s, which is about ten degrees below normal for this time of year.

Tonight will be the coldest of the bunch, and I'm sure the National Weather Service in South Burlington will issue another round of frost advisories by the time they release their updated forecasts this afternoon. 

I'm not sure yet, but unlike last night, I suspect the frost advisories might extend into the Champlain Valley. Lows should range from the mid and upper 20s in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom, to the low 30s in most of Vermont and the mid-30s in the Champlain Valley. Take those sensitive plants indoors! 

As readers of this here blog thingy probably know, I almost always say it could be worse, and I find receipts that prove it. 

For example, on this day in Burlington, 1963, the high temperature was only 40 degrees, the low was 30 degrees and we had some cold rain, mixed with a  trace of snow. 

And on this date in 1945, higher elevations in southern Vermont was blasted by a mid-winter style snowfall. Somerset and Wilmington got 15 inches of snow, and 10 inches fell in Dorset. In lower elevations. 5.5 inches of snow accumulated in Rutland. 

OK moving on. 

TUESDAY

Another cool, sunny day after the morning frost with highs in the 50s. Actually a very nice, comfortably cool day to get things down outdoors. Aside from the black flies, that is.  Tuesday night will get chilly once again, so frost will be an issue for the third night in a row. It should be a couple degrees warmer than tonight because clouds will start to cover the skies overnight.  

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

Those clouds will lead to frequent showers starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing well into Thursday. I'm not sure how much rain we'll get, but it doesn't look like we'll exactly drown. This isn't a powerhouse weather system that's coming in. 

We'll be done with the frost, finally, as the clouds will keep overnight temperatures in the 40s. But those same clouds and showers will hold daytime temperatures down to within a few degrees either side of 60. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

The weather system from Wednesday and Thursday now seems like it might sort of stall out over the ocean east of New England. That will keep clouds here in Vermont Friday and maybe into part of Saturday. And that storm will blunt the expected warmup, but only temporarily. 

It should get into the low 60s Friday and well into the 60s to near 70. That would be the first time in a week with near normal temperatures. 

The weather pattern does seem like it wants to evolve into something better if you're a warm weather fan.  Instead of the flow from Canada we've had since the very end of April, it looks like weather systems will want to zip through here on a nice west to east fashion starting next weekend. 

That means the second half of the month would provide us with near normal to somewhat warmer than normal conditions. Under that scenario, we'd end up with many but not all days making it into the 70s. The warmest days would be near 80 and the coolest days in that stretch would be in the 60s. 

In other words, almost, but not quite summer weather. Won't that be nice?

New Orleans Is Sinking And Scientists Say The City Is A Terminal Case

The Tragically Hip were right: New Orleans 
IS sinking, and some researchers say the
will no longer be viable in a century or 
less because of rising sea levels
and climate change 

 Back in 1989, the fantastic Canadian band Tragically Hip released one of their greatest songs, called "New Orleans Is Sinking."   

Turns out the band was pretty prescient. 

New Orleans has always been in, at best, a standoff with the Gulf of Mexico. The low lying city has always been prone to coastal flooding, especially in recent decades as the land itself sinks and climate change has begun to raise sea levels. 

Now, we're seeing new headlines, like the lede in this story from The Guardian: 

"The process of relocating people from New Orleans should start immediately, as the city has reached 'a point of  no return' that will see it surrounded buy the ocean within decades due to the climate crisis, a start new study has concluded."

The fossil fuel industry that is an important part of Louisiana's economy is to blame. The coastline is subsiding, sinking downward in large part by the effects of the oil and gas industry. Along with man-made levees and diversions along the Mississippi River that means silt from the river doesn't replenish the land along the coastline. 

"The delta loses roughly a football field worth of land every half hour to an hour,"  according to PBS. 

The new research says southern Louisiana will deal with three to seven meters (roughly 10 to 23 feet) sea level rise which would drown land surrounding New Orleans and Baton Rouge.

"Ultimately the main message of the study is New Orleans is not forever and we have to plan for our future and we have to start planning now," aid Dr. Torbjorn Tomqvist, a geology professor at Tulane University and lead author of the study. 

The research harkens back to a time 125,000 years ago, when the Gulf of Mexico shoreline was north of Lake Pontchartrain, about 30 miles north of New Orleans. 

In those days, global temperatures were about 0.5 to 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels and seas were 10 to 20 feet higher than today, notes Fox8 News in New Orleans. 

Climate change through the use of fossil fuels have made the world at least as warm as it was 125,000 years ago. "Tornqvist said that because of the increasing rate of sea level rise, combined with subsidence or the rate of sinking land, the Gulf one day reach that ridge again, putting much of Southeast Louisiana underwater," Fox8 News continued.

Jesse Keenan, one the paper's five co-authors said New Orleans is going to go away, no matter what. As for how long New Orleans will last, Keenan said it is likely decades, not centuries. Though they stress it's not imminent. The city won't drown this year or this decade, but several decades from now. 

"Even if you stopped climate change today, New Orlean's days are still numbered....It will be surrounded by open water, and you can't keep an island situated below sea level afloat. There's no amount of money that can do that," Keenan said.

Keenan summed it up with this gloomy assessment. "New Orleans is in terminal condition, and we need to be clear with the patient that it is terminal.....There is an opportunity for palliative care, we can transition people and the economy. We can get ahead of this."

The researchers said city, state and federal leaders should start working now to help people move away from New Orleans and environs. They recommend a coordinated effort, starting with the most vulnerable committees. The top suggestion is Plaquemines Parish, where many people live outside the levee system. 

Land loss to the sea is already driving depopulation along Louisiana's coastal areas. That area has lost residents since 2000, especially after big hurricanes. That population loss has a good chance of accelerating as the land continues to disappear and hurricanes continue to battler the Gulf Coast.  

One More Vermont May Cold Snap Coming, Then Maybe Finally Warmer?

Dark clouds this morning ended up producing showers
here in St. Albans, Vermont but skies should clear
this afternoon. Another spell of chilly, frosty May
weather is coming in over the next couple of days.

 Much of Vermont ended up having yet another cold day on Saturday. So much for the slight warming trend we hoped for. 

Clouds and light rain made it a little further north than expected yesterday, briefly getting as far north as Burlington. 

You can see how the strong May sun affects temperatures. In Burlington, it was gorgeous and mild under the morning sun, then gusty and cold under the afternoon clouds. The far northwest corner of Vermont got lucky and stay relatively sunny and reasonably mild all day. Lucky them! 

Further south it was rather nasty. Montpelier got into the low 50s under morning sunshine, but temperatures retreated into the 40s during the afternoon under the clouds. Rutland, like Montpelier, endured an early morning frost, then stayed in the 40s all day. 

VERMONT FORECAST

Another cold front is coming through today. The front was spreading some rain showers into Vermont this morning. But the front is moving fast, so skies should clear up pretty abruptly this afternoon.

We can use the rain, even though most places won't get much if anything out of these showers. Rain did fall at a moderate pace for awhile here in St. Albans, so at least we got some needed wetting in this corner of the state. 

The chilly air behind this front is lagging a bit, so we should manage to see highs in the 60s today. Not bad for Mother's Day, really.

For those of you bummed about this morning's showers, it could be a lot worse.  The lousiest Mother's Day weather in recent history I could find was in 1996. That day featured a drenching, day long cold rain that mixed with or changed to snow in many areas of Vermont. Burlington got 0.3 inches that day, St. Albans had two inches. 

No snow is in the forecast, at least not anything like we saw in May, 1996.  But frost is yet again a threat. Like it's been so often this month. 

Monday

As dawn breaks tomorrow morning, we'll be down in the 30s again.  There could be frost or freezing temperatures anywhere in Vermont to start the day, especially away from the Champlain Valley. 

Unlike frosty Saturday morning, the sun will more or less stay much of the day.  Although the afternoon will tend to get cloudier as sun-warmed air interacts with frigid air aloft.  The at least occasional sun will get high temperatures will get into the 50s instead of Saturday's 40s in central and southern Vermont.  

Canadian high pressure is causing this chill. The air is cold and dry. Perfect air if you want the temperatures to crash at night. I think the National Weather Service might issue a frost advisory for the Champlain Valley tomorrow night and early Tuesday. Those tropical plants I put out on my deck unfortunately will either have to be covered or brought back in. Sigh.

Tuesday. 

After the morning frost, we'll still be under that cool high pressure. So, high temperatures Tuesday will again only make it into the 50s. Maybe 60 in a few of the warmer valleys. Normal afternoon temperatures this time of year should be be between 65 and 70 degrees. There might be more frost late at night and Wednesday morning.

WARMING TREND?

Fingers crossed, we'll finally see a change in the weather pattern that would free us from this chilly May weather pattern. It won't exactly turn super warm, but the chill should relax. In fact, Wednesday and Thursday afternoons probably won't be any warmer than Monday and Tuesday due to expected clouds and light rain. 

Morning lows starting Thursday will be much better though, bottoming out in the frost-free 40s. 

Once those showers clear out, we'll warm up to - yay! - average temperatures by next weekend. That'll bring temperatures up to 70 degrees or so, fingers crossed. Beyond that, we might even have a shot at a day or two that get past 80 degrees more than a week from now.

As we scrape frost off our windshields in the early mornings in the coming days, we can hold onto the prospect of warmer days ahead. 

Cold Spell Of Vermont May Weather Continues With Snow, Freezes; Chilly Pattern To Continue

Daffodils enjoy some morning sun today in St. Albans,
Vermont. Cool weather has kept the daffodils blooming

Friday's weather in Vermont made a liar out of me. 

I said the other day we wouldn't get snow this week or next, except maybe at the tippy top of the mountains. 

Well, when I was in Enosburg Falls, Vermont yesterday, there was a graupel shower. While I was trying to mow a lawn, for gawd's sake. 

Graupel is that sleety, white snow that looks like it partly melted and refroze on the way down. Just regular snowflakes were spotted Friday in Readsboro, in southern Vermont. 

The place in Readsboro where it snowed is at a pretty high elevation, but not at the summit of any mountains. I'm sure it snowed in other places as well. Killington Ski Resort still has a trail with many feet of snow on it. They traditionally close for the season around Memorial Day or at about June 1. 

At this rate in the cool weather, Killington will be open to skiers all summer. I don't really believe that, but the chilly weather is starting to slow down the pace of spring. 

Last night was cold, too. Morning lows today in the Champlain Valley were in the mid-30s, so I think a frost advisory should have been issued there. A hard freeze hit some places away from the lake this morning. Montpelier got to at least 27 degrees and Morrisville was at 27 at 6 a.m. 

Saranac Lake, the perennial cold spot in the Adirondacks, was at a frigid 21 degrees at 6 a.m. today. 

On the bright side, it's not hot and humid, which would be even worse than the fleece and jacket weather we've been having. And the cold air keeps the early spring flowers going for longer. My daffodils look fantabulous this year. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

It'll be a little warmer this weekend, but not spectacularly so. And it's back to cool weather next week, though. And even though we'll see frequent chances of showers, we're not really going to get all the rain we need, either. 

A warm front of sorts is lifting up through Vermont today.  That means far southern Vermont should actually see some rain today, with maybe a quarter to a third of an inch down there.  It was already raining near the Massachusetts border early this morning. 

After a lot of morning sun, it will tend to cloud up this afternoon north. Central and northern Vermont will see little if any rain later today, and maybe just some light, boring showers tonight. 

A few showers might splatter down on Mother's Day, but they'll be hit and miss, won't last long and won't amount to much. Sunday will also actually feature normal temperatures for this time of year, with highs well into the 60s.

Enjoy the brief heat while you can. 

We'll be back down with 50s for highs during the first half of the week, which will be about ten degrees below normal. There's a chance of frost this coming Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

It still looks like it might warm up somewhat during the second half of next week.  Current projections suggest temperatures will head toward normal May levels. That's mid 60s to around 70.  Rainfall will probably stay scant for at least a week, probably more.  

"Gorilla Hail" Has Been Pounding The U.S. This Year, And It's Likely More Common Than Previously Thought

Giant hail in Wisconsin this past April.

It's been another rough year for hail storms in the United States. There's been lots of them and a few of them have been real standouts. 

Probably the most newsworthy and perhaps most extreme was the one that hit Springfield, Missouri and nearby areas on April 28. 

Baseball to softball sized hail laid wasted to probably thousands of cars. Sadly, an emu died from the hail at Dickerson Park Zoo in Springfield. Zoo workers tried their damndest to get all the zoo animals under cover. 

An emu's natural instinct is to lie down and take cover, and this emu, a 21 year old female named Adam, couldn't be coaxed indoors and died when a huge hailstone landed on his head. 

Back on March 10, a supercell that produced a destructive tornado in Kankakee, Illinois also produced immense hail that might have broken the record for the largest hailstone in Illinois history. It measured 6.616 inches in diameter and weighed 1.22 pounds. In other words, it was a little larger than a grapefruit. 

Officials are verifying those measurements before declaring it a record holder. In any event huge hailstones damaged homes in Kankakee that were never touched by the tornado.

The tornado, with maximum winds of 150 people killed three people. 

Even here in Vermont, we managed to see some rare or us golf ball sized hail on April 16 when a supercell thunderstorm crossed west to east across central Vermont. The supercell is the one that ultimately produced a brief tornado in Williamstown. 

GORILLA HAIL

Reed Timmer, one of the more popular and prolific storm chasers out there, coined the term "gorilla hail" to describe especially ferocious hailstorms with especially huge hailstones. 

Gorilla hail is generally defined as hailstones with a diameter of at least two inches, which is about the size of a lime.

Big hailstones are expensive. Replacing a hail-damaged roof can cost $15,000 or more, though homeowners;' insurance usually covers that. (On that note, a spoiler:  Look for an upcoming piece on how State Farm is allegedly doing everything they can to not pay for hail damaged roofs).

Fixing a hail-damaged vehicle can cost several thousand dollars, but if the damage is severe enough, insurers will just total the car.  

Hail costs an estimated $15 billion in damage to homes, buildings, vehicles and crops each year in the U.S. 

Hail-prone cities and their surrounding suburbs continue to expand, providing more targets for potential gorilla hail. That's helping to cause hail costs to spiral upward. 

NOT SO RARE?

It seemed fortunate that "gorilla hail," with stones the size of baseballs, softballs, grapefruit or even worse, was considered relatively rare. But maybe not. 

New research in recent years suggest "gorilla hail" has always been more common than we thought. And super giant hail might be becoming more frequent. 

It was thought that hail stones six inches in diameter or greater were exceedingly rare. But new research suggests maybe those gargantuan icy meteors aren't quite as rare as we thought.  

Per Washington Post:

"'I think six inches plus is happening on a yearly basis,' said Victor Gensini, a professor at Northern Illinois University, in a recent interview. "I think it's a matter of who's finding it, who's looking for it. When you're actually out there looking for it, four-plus-inch hail is maybe not that rare."

Most of these giant hailstones are happening in fairly remote areas, where people aren't around to observe them before they melt. Or, since such large hail is so dangerous, and maybe accompanied by ferocious, damaging winds or even tornadoes, people who would otherwise find them are wisely hunkering down in basements and storm shelters.

Besides, most big hail stones shatter upon impact. To find these hail stones, you need a road that happens to lead where the biggest hail stones landed, Gensini said. Most hail falls over open fields. Good luck finding the biggest stones before they start to melt. 

Thunderstorms that produce gargantuan hail can't actually have too much water in therm. Storms with incredible amounts of rain tend not to produce the biggest hail. Bigger hail also seems to fall when a small storm merges with a large supercell that is already producing hail.

The bad news from all this research is that future storms might produce bigger hail, thanks, once again, to climate change. 

The Washington Post tells us:

"Gensini published a paper in 2024 that suggests less hail will occur overall, ut there will be more instances of giant hail. Why? Warming temperatures in the lower atmosphere will melt some of the small hailstones. Yet big stones fall fast enough through the warmer lower atmosphere that they have little time to melt. And with more thunderstorm fuel overall thanks to a warming world, there could be more of them."

We will probably get more and more new reports of giant hail simply from better technology. At least 90 percent of hailstones shatter or break on impact, and the rest start to melt immediately.  

Researchers are starting to use photogrammetry, a technique that uses trigonometry to estimate the sizeof objects caught on camera. (And you thought there was no use for trigonometry when you were back in high school!)

A hail specialist at Penn State used the technique to estimate the size of a gorilla hailstone that fell on an Argentinian with in 2018.  He found the hailstone to be 7.4 to 9.3 inches in diameter. A woman found a 7.1 inch diameter hailstone just after the storm ended, collaborating the photogrammetry. The woman's hailstone was a bit smaller as it had already started to melt.

Gorilla hail is terrifying and incredibly destructive. You don't want to get caught in any of these storm. Here's hoping you don't experience one of those storms! 

  

 

 

 

 

May Is The Season Of Spring Frosts, But So Far We're Avoiding Freezes . No Guarantees Though

Some of our plants are in the living room window
and some tropical plants went into dormancy in a 
spare bedroom in our St. Albans, Vermont house.
We're waiting for the threat of frost to be over
before bringing them outdoors for the summer.
We're hoping the frost threat ends 
within another week or so, fingers crossed.

 I'm reluctant to release our tropical plants like the orange tree and the hibiscus from their winter prison in our small, but somewhat sunny spare bedroom.  

We've had some nice warm days that they would have enjoyed outdoors on the deck. But this cool weather pattern we're stuck in has us worried about frost. Which, as Captain Obvious would say, is bad for tropical plants. 

So far, clouds and wind have kept overnight temperatures above freezing, and we're hoping that continues. But, we have the National Weather Service to rescue us from tragic hibiscus deaths if we choose to bring the plants outdoors in the coming days. 

They're always good with the frost alerts. There's also a schedule for the spring frost and freeze advisories. 

The National Weather Service won't issue frost or freeze advisories until the growing season starts in a given spot. The growing season is defined as the period between the average date of the last spring freeze and the average date of the first fall freeze. 

Frost and freeze advisories and warnings started on May 1 in the Champlain Valley on nights when conditions warrant.  In most of the rest of Vermont, the National Weather Service won''t start with those advisories until May 11. In the Northeast Kingdom, you wouldn't hear a frost or freeze alert until May 21 and after.

That explains why you might see a frost advisory in early May for the Champlain Valley, but no freeze alerts for the rest of Vermont, even though it's colder there. 

In those areas away from the Champlain Valley, National Weather Service forecasts until May 11 will mention frosts if some is expected, but won't actually issue a frost advisory or warning until that growing season starts.

We will be subject to a frost risk for awhile yet. Hard freezes have hit Burlington as late as May 31, and light frosts have historic hit in early June on a few occasions. In the Northeast Kingdom, there's been frost every month of the year. Though recent summers up that way have been frost-free.

ACTUAL FROSTS?

We're keeping our eyes out for frosts as it is cooler than normal for this time of year. Any night over the next several days in which skies clear and winds go calm gives us a risk of frosts.

That might be tonight, but the Champlain Valley might be a couple degrees too warm for frost. We'll get updates this afternoon. If temperatures forecasts are adjusted downward, we'll get a frost advisory for the Champlain Valley, but for now, we're in the clear. 

Forecasts do mention frosts for the rest of the state, so if you are anywhere outside the Champlain Valley, sensitive plants should come indoors tonight. 

After a brief, sort of warmup this weekend, I think the risk of frost might come back for the first half of next week. Again, depending on how cloudy and breezy the nights are. On the bright side, I'm not seeing any signs of a really hard freeze. Just nights that get dangerously close to the freezing mark.k 

Remember, you can get frost even if temperatures are in the mid-30s. We measure temperatures about five feet off the ground. It's amazing how much colder it can be on still nights down near your feet.

We don't want to take our tropical plants outdoors until we're reasonable sure no more frosts are coming. Those plants and the soil-filled, large pots they are in are heavy!  We're too old to move them back and forth every night. 

There are signs that we might shift to a warmer weather pattern around May 18 or so. Then I can finally free Margaret (our orange tree) and Hector the hibiscus and the other plants out to the freedom of our outdoor deck, where they are happiest. And I am, too.  

We Got Through Our Cold Vermont Rainy Day, Coming Up: A Hard To Predict Cool Regime

After a chilly, rainy day with a low gray overcast dawn until'
evening. Here in St. Albans, though, the sun broke through
right at sunset, giving us a brief burst of bright light
to promise a return of nicer weather in the coming days. 

Yesterday worked out about as expected, with day long rains soaking the ground and getting trees and plants a boost to keep bursting out in spring green.  

Rainfall amounts were close to forecasts in most places. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Rutland all had something close to an inch of rain. Bennington and Springfield had a little over a half inch, which was - again - in line with forecasts. 

Burlington was an exception. They only got a half inch or so of rain yesterday. Which means that long term record for most rain May 6, which is 0.85 in 1894 still stands.

Although surface winds were from the north, keeping Burlington's temperatures in the 40s all day, the moisture flow was from the southwest. I think the Adirondacks were blocking some of the moisture from the Champlain Valley. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

Part of the answer to that question, What's Next, is, who knows? We have that dip in the jet stream that will keep us cooler than average on most, but maybe not all days over the next week to 10 days. 

Today and tomorrow look pretty straight forward. We'll have sun, with clouds mixing in, especially near the mountains. One minute the sun will be out, the next it won't, them it will reappear. The chances of showers are pretty low, so if you have outdoor plans, you should be good. 

Both today and tomorrow will be cool for the season, but at least it will be much warmer than yesterday.  Most of Vermont should reach into the 50s both days.

WEEKEND

Here's where we are a bit at a loss as to what will happen. The broad brush idea is pretty clear. A weak warm front will come through Saturday, bringing temperatures ever so slightly warmer to the upper 50s to near 60. 

It'll be even warmer Sunday. with highs in the 60s. That might seem pretty warm, but now we're so late into the spring that 60s is exactly normal. We also have chances of showers both days. 

Fine, but how many showers and how much rain will fall?  The weather systems circulating through the big dip in the jet stream parked over the Great Lakes and Northeast are kind of small and fast moving. And they're interacting with each other in a way that makes it hard to predict their exact path.

So figuring out where the best moisture will set up, where the showers will concentrate, when the showers will arrive and leave is hard to tell. 

Bottom line: If you have outdoor plans for Mother's Day, you might get away with it, but you are taking chances. I noticed meteorologists are trying to time out when the showers will hit and where the rain will come down the hardest. So far, it looks like most of the daylight hours on Sunday might stay dry, but that forecast could easily change. 

Actually, expect forecast changes from Saturday onward into next week.   The good news is that whatever happens, we won't have any extreme weather over the next several days. No scary thunderstorms. It'll be cool, with even a frost risk on some nights.  But no hard freezes. Also, no torrential rains  no floods. And no snow, aside from a slight risk of flakes at the tippy top of the mountains, maybe, 

Big Parts Of Colorado Just Had Their Biggest Snowstorm In Almost A Quarter Century; Up To 28 Inches Reported

Apparently, no al fresco dining in Estes Park, Colorado
after 28 inches of snow fell yesterday and today. 
Photo via Facebook from Matt Levitt Weather

A late season snowstorm has hit large swaths of Wyoming and Colorado which sounds depressing for so late in the season.  

Instead, people are rejoicing, because as the snow melts, it will put the first real dent in the areas's drought in months. 

New snow was reported as deep as 26.1 inches way up in the high country of Boulder County. The city of Boulder itself got about 10 inches. Up in Estes Park in Larimer County, between 22 and 28 inches fell. 

All of Colorado is experiencing a drought. The snow is great news.  What had been expected to be an extraordinarily early start to the fire season might be postponed by a few weeks.  At least in the Front Range.

There was quite a bit of water in that snow. As of late this morning, Fort Collins reported 5.3 inches of snow with total melted precipitation of 1.75 inches. 

Denver itself reportedly got around three or four inches downtown, and around 4.5 to 5 inches around the rest of the city.  This means this was the second or third largest snowstorm of the "winter" even though it hit well into spring.  It was the biggest May snowstorm in Denver since 2003. 

The Denver snow, melted down, amounted to at least 1.1 inches of what is basically rainfall. 

 Final tallies aren't in yet, which is why I"m saying "at least." 

As the snow falls. the warm ground is making it melt from the bottom, and the water soaks into the soil. Once the snow stops, rising temperatures will make the remaining snow melt, which will continue to add moisture to the soil. Gradually, instead of running off like downpours would. So this is perfect. 

Northwestern Colorado is experiencing the worst drought conditions in the state. Many areas in western Colorado unfortunately mostly missed out on the precipitation. Grand Junction, Colorado only had 0.05 inches of precipitation. Gunnison had a little under a quarter inch. 

Which means the drought and potential fire problems are not at all over in Colorado. And most of the rest of the West. 

This isn't to say the storm caused no problems. It did. 

Trees has mostly leafed out in the Denver and Boulder areas thanks to a record warm winter and toasty early spring. Peonies were even blooming. The weight of the snow on leafed out trees caused many branches to snap. Some of them onto power lines. 

About 47,000 Colorado homes and businesses were without power as of early this afternoon. 

Coloradans face some garden misery tonight. The snow is ending, but a snow covered ground means it'll get very cold very fast tonight. A freeze warning is in effect for the entire area that had snow. 

The snowstorm in Colorado will soon be forgotten. The snow will melt and quickly!

 Forecasters expect the highs in the low 60s around Denver tomorrow, near 70 Friday through Sunday and rising to the low and mid 80s by early next week.

And the snowstorm isn't traveling anywhere else to hassle any springtime enthusiasts. It's just kind of dwindling away to nothing and drying up.

Cold, Rainy Day In Vermont Keeping Us Indoors, But Giving Us A Needed Soaking

National Weather Service radar showed rain moving southwest
to northeast from New York into Vermont as of 9:45 a.m. 
today. So as you can see, we're in for a wet day. 
That rain-free area in southeast Vermont should
get wet later today. 

 I'm posting this morning's update late than usual because I decided to sleep in today. 

It's a perfect day to do it, with a steady rain drumming on the roof and chilly air outside. Might as well relax for a change, right?  

The wind and thunderstorms and power outages from yesterday have faded. 

Most of the power outages were in eastern Vermont.  Gusty winds ahead of the showers and thunderstorms knocked trees to power lines in places like Barre and Thetford. 

As mentioned yesterday, trees are suddenly getting heavier as thousands of leaves on each tree sprout and grow. 

That many leaves are heavy when taken together. If you have a large tree in your yard and have to rake and remove the leaves in the fall, you know what I'm talking about. 

If a tree was weakened during the winter, the new leaves and the wind can combine to knock them down. We'll see more random trees break or fall here and there as the leaves continue to grow. 

A few brush fires developed in eastern Vermont before the showers, too. A tree fell on a power line in Newfane, sparking a brush fire there. 

There won't be any brush fires in Vermont today. Here are the details

TODAY

It was raining everywhere in Vermont as of 9 a.m. except in far southeastern Vermont.  A cold front is creeping across the state at a snail's pace while a wave of low pressure rides along the front. We're still looking at storm totals from yesterday afternoon to this evening of around an inch, with more in some spots. 

There's a good chance that Burlington, Vermont will break a very old record for the today's date. The wettest May 6 on record is 0.85 inches set way back in 1894. Those forecasts for an inch of rain today would break that record. 

Southeastern Vermont will see less rain, with maybe a half inch expected. Which sucks, because that's the driest part of the state. It would have been nice if they'd get more rain out to this. Spoiler: There will be more rain chances after today. 

The rain will start to dwindle first in northwest mid to late afternoon and that trend of rain ending will then spread southeast in the evening. 

Highs should stay in the 40s north and hold in the 50s for the most part south, so it's a cold, wet May day. Get your indoor projects done today!

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

Both days will be cool for the season, but not bad. This weather pattern always has us under a threat of a shower, but if any develop either of these days, they should be light and isolated.  Forecasters are also expecting a fair amount of sun  mixed with the clouds both days. Highs should only be in the 50s to low 60s, which is cooler than average for this time of year.  

WEEKEND

Things could change, but it's looking unsettled. One little storm looks like it will go just to our south, so most of the rain will hit southern New England. But, we'll have clouds and a good chance of showers. Especially in southern Vermont. It won't be a big dump of rain down there, but it add a little more water to the fields and gardens down there. 

A slightly stronger storm will approach Sunday. At first, That will probably warm us up well into the 60s. If we're lucky, the rain will hold off until Sunday night. 

There's still lots of questions on the speed, path and intensity of that storm, so we don't know how much rain we'll get. 

After that, it's back to the relatively cool, unsettled weather we've had most days lately. 

Vermont Tuesday Evening Update: We're Likely To Escape Severe Thunderstorms, Hope I'm Not Jinxing It

Threatening clouds over St. Albans, Vermont as 
downpours approached this afternoon. There was
potential for severe storms today, but luckily,
it appears they did not materialize. 

 Numerous showers, thunderstorms and downpours passed through the state this afternoon and they were still ongoing in eastern Vermont late this afternoon.   

Some of the storms had briefly gusty winds but nothing outrageous. So far, there's been no reports of any severe thunderstorms.

 Burlington, which had winds gusting from the south at about 35 mph all morning and early afternoon, had a gust of 32 mph from the northwest as outflow from a nearby storm hit. 

There were a fair number of lightning strikes, but again, nothing too scary. 

By late afternoon around 8,000 homes and businesses were without electricity. They surged shortly before 5 p.m. as a line of fairly strong showers moved through the Connecticut River Valley. They weren't thunderstorms at this point, but there was probably an outflow boundary. 

Many of the power outages had nothing to do with showers and thunderstorms. This time of year, trees are leafing out. Leaves are amazingly heavy, if you get enough of them. Like on a big tree. Trees and branches that had gotten weakened over the winter finally gave way on a windy day as leaves grew in the warmth of gusty south winds. 

Bottom line: I don't see any reports of severe thunderstorm damage, and no severe storm warnings came from the National Weather Service. It looks like the atmosphere was able to produce a lot of thunderstorms, but the "magic" wasn't quite there to create severe ones. 

National Weather Service radar showed a line of downpours
across central Vermont, and scattered elsewhere, but it
looks like nothing severe arose from the showers and storms. 

We could still see a couple strong storms this evening, but the chances of that happening are diminishing fast.  

Today's showers were quick movers so most places didn't get much rain. Burlington so far has had 0.14 inches and Montpelier was at 0.09 inches by late afternoon, though the showers hadn't finished moving through central Vermont yet.  My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 0.25. 

If you didn't get wet enough, we've still got a soaking rain scheduled for tomorrow. 

As it stands now, the northwestern two thirds of Vermont should see an inch of additional rain or a bit more than that. The southeaster corner of the state is in for a bit less, maybe three quarters of an inch. 

That's too bad, since that is the driest part of the state and needs the most rain. 

We'll have a bit of a temperature gradient across Vermont, too. Highs in the far northwest, places like Highgate and Swanton down to about Burlington will see afternoon temperatures only in the mid and upper 40s. Really chilly for this time of year. 

Temperatures should reach the low 60s in far southern Vermont, but might tend to back off through the 50s tomorrow afternoon.

As always, I'll have a full update tomorrow morning. 

Severe Storm Risk Is Still Iffy In Vermont Today. Rain And Much Cooler Weather Tomorrow Is NOT Iffy

A severe thunderstorm over Lake Champlain in July, 2023.
Severe storms are possible in Vermont today, if
the right factors come together. We won't know until
shortly before the storms develop. 

 We're starting the day really mild, especially in the Champlain Valley, where temperatures were in the low 60s at dawn.

Such warm temperatures to start the day might make you feel like that risk of severe storms today will come true. After all, summer-like temperatures equal summer-like storms, right?

Well, maybe.

Meteorologists are not much closer to figuring out today's severe weather risk than they were yesterday. 

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington said in their overnight forecast discussion, we're reduced to "nowcasting," which means we'll only know whether any severe weather looms just hours or even less than an hour before they actually hit. If they hit. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has northern New York and northern New England under a marginal risk of severe weather today. That's level one of five, the lowest alert level. The SPC is also sort of into "nowcasting" with this, saying they'll upgrade to a level 2 slight risk if later forecasts increase the amount of instability in the air 

For Vermont, the marginal risk covers the entire state except areas right along the Massachusetts border. 

One limiting factor might be what was going on just after dawn today.  Light rain showers were over the Champlain Valley, and somewhat more substantial showers were in central New York, heading east towards us. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has for now
kept a marginal risk of severe storms over norther
New England (dark green shading). I the risk
of storms seems to increase later this morning,
it'll go to level 2 slightly risk, like what you
see over Arkansas in this map. 

Showers and clouds this morning would tend to suppress instability, and that would more or less squash severe storm potential.  If skies clear up by early afternoon, we could maintain the instability and fire up the storms.  

The amount of moisture in the air is another key factor. Some forecasts show slightly higher humidity today than what was thought yesterday,  which is good if you want storms. 

But other forecasts mix drier air from aloft down to the surface this afternoon, which would lower the humidity. Pick your poison, I guess.

The wind situation thousands of feet overhead are great if severe storms are your thing. If storms can get going, they have the chance of "grabbing" pieces of that high speed air and bringing it to the surface as damaging wind gusts. 

Whether these storms develop depends on whether an approaching cold front can team up with enough instability from sunshine to allow thunderstorms to erupt. If, by noon it's nice and sunny out, we have a  good chance of some good storms to fire up. If it's cloudy and showery, you can't necessarily kiss the severe storms goodbye, but the chances of them actually happening get pretty low
. 

NOAA says if we do see severe storms today, they'll take the form of either what they call bowing echoes or brief supercells. 

Bowing echoes are short lines of thunderstorms. If you look at a bowing echo on radar, the line of storms is shaped like a backwards "C"  The front part of that backwards "C" that sticks out ahead of the rest of the line of thunderstorms is where you'd see those damaging wind gusts. 

Or, we could see some brief, or what NOAA calls transient supercells. It makes it sound like those poor supercells are unhoused. What they really mean is the supercells wouldn't last as long as they usually do. Midwestern supercells can last for many hours. In this case, not so much. 

Still, those "transient" supercells can cause damaging winds and maybe some hail.  Since supercells tend to spin, we'd still have a very, very, very, low risk of a brief tornado. A low risk but not no risk. 

If we do get those rambunctious thunderstorms, they'll come through between about 1 and 6 p.m. today. 

Overall, most of Vermont will not see severe storms today. If we get any damaging winds from the storms, it would be in just a few spots. But we don't know which spots yet, so keep an ear to weather radio or reliable weather forecasting sources like the National Weather  Service or the local TV meteorologists for updates. 

Other than the storms, today will be breezy to windy, especially in the Champlain Valley. Most of us will get well into the 70s before the showers or storms arrive. 

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

Meteorologists aren't sure about today's thunderstorms, but they are sure we're going to get pretty damned wet overnight tonight and tomorrow

Today's shower and thunderstorms will evolve into a steady rain tonight which should pretty much continue through Wednesday. It's looking like a nice soaker, which we need. 

Total rainfall today through tomorrow night looks like it'll amount to more than inch across most of Vermont. Some areas of central Vermont, especially in and near the Green Mountains, could close in on two inches. 

Aside from brief, torrential downpours if thunderstorms develop today, the rain will come down at a slow enough pace that means we shouldn't see any flooding. Rivers will rise and become turbulent, of course, so kayaking in them is probably a bad idea for a couple or few days. 

The weather misery index of Wednesday is really high, though. With the steady, day-long rain, temperatures should only hold near 50 degrees, except maybe somewhat warmer than that in far southern Vermont. 

AFTER TOMORROW

We still have another round in which we spend several days with below normal temperatures and a risk of showers at almost any time. Aside from tomorrow, it won't be as cold as it was last weekend, with highs most days in the mid 50s to low 60s.  Sunday might actually be a little warmer, getting into the near-normal 60s. 

This pattern still looks like it will hold more or less in place through at least May 18 or so.  Most of the showers between Thursday and May 18 are looking very much on the light side, at least so far. That means it's actually good that Wednesday will be so miserable and rainy.  

For A Change, A Company Does It Right By Employees As A Tornado Loomed

Extreme tornado damage in an industrial area of 
Mineral Wells, Texas that was hit by a tornado
late last month. One employer, Ventamatic, 
took watches and warnings seriously, so they
sent employees home ahead of the storm,
which very likely saved lives. 

 I've written in the past cases in which companies seemed indifferent to their employees as tornadoes bore down on their workplaces. 

For a change of pace, we have a case in which a company protected its employees from a tornado. 

That nobody died is a testament to great warnings from the National Weather Service, a company that enacted its emergency plan and kept a close eye on the weather.

The company in question is Ventamatic which has, or at least had, a manufacturing plant in Mineral Wells, Texas. 

 Company officials on the afternoon of April 28 first noticed a dangerous supercell storm when it was near Wichita Falls, about 80 miles northwest of Mineral Wells. 

An area of Texas, including Mineral Wells, went under a tornado watch, since the supercell was heading in the general direction of tha city. So Ventamatic officials sent all the 120 workers home, because the homes had better protection from tornadoes than the plant. 

Plus, removing the workers meant there wasn't concentration of people at risk. Sending the workers home dispersed them into a wide area.  Many workers went home to houses that were ultimately not in the path of the tornado ,and not damaged.  

Supervisors at the plant also contacted the next shift telling them to hold off on coming in until the bad weather passed. 

The tornado struck the complex as an EF-3 with winds of up to 145 mph. A total of 132 homes and businesses suffered damage.  Nine houses were a total loss and 12 others had major damage. The Ventamatic plant was decimated. 

Aerial video of the industrial complex housing Ventamatic showed leveled buildings and sheet metal strewn everywhere.  The sheet metal must have been swirling wildly in the tornado, enough to cut a person in half if they're hit. 

But there was nobody at Ventamatic to hit.  

Mineral Wells Mayor Reagan Johnson called management a "true, true lifesaver for the community. Incredible that he did that.......Just knowing even what that employer did, the forethought to do that, the awareness, what a hero,!" according to KDFW Fox 4. 

 It appears not all businesses in the manufacturing complex were sent home.  Unconfirmed reports on Facebook indicated employees at a factory called Parker Hannifin were taken by surprise by the tornado and didn't even have time to reach the safest part of the building, which was the bathrooms. 

They instead huddled in a break room, and managed to escape serious injury.

Bottom line, Ventamatic officials were weather aware, had an emergency plan that included what to do when a tornado threatens, and they followed that plan. Perfect!

That contrasts with past incidents involving workplaces and tornadoes. In December, 2021, a huge tornado rampaged through western Kentucky, approaching the town of Mayfield. Workers at Mayfield Consumer Products, a candle factory claim in a lawsuit that supervisors repeated turned down employees requests to go home and hunker down with families, which they believed to be safer than the factory building. 

Some workers left anyway. 

In the end, the powerful tornado leveled the factory, killing nine people and injuring several  more. At last report, the lawsuit had not been resolved. 

On the same night as the Mayfield tornado, another twister struck an Amazon warehouse in Edwardsville, killing six workers.

As I wrote in December, 2021, a few days after the tornadoes: 

"Tornado warnings for Edwardsville were issued at least 20 minutes before the tornado hit. However, Amazon managers either didn't take the warning seriously, didn't know what to do with them, or more depressingly if true, prioritized production over worker safety. "

In that same tornado outbreak an Amazon driver heard tornado warnings and sirens and wanted to head back to the warehouse or a safer place. A vehicle is pretty much the least safe place to be in a tornado. 

The driver's dispatcher radioed back, "If you decide to come back that choice is yours. But I can tell you it won't be viewed as for your own safety. The safest practice is to stay exactly where you are. If you decide to return with your packages it will be viewed as you refusing your route, which will ultimately end with you not having a job tomorrow. The sirens are just a warning."

Yes! The sirens are a warning! Meaning get to a safe place immediately. But it's all about profits to keep Amazon's multibillionaire owner happy, isn't it?

The issue isn't just tornadoes. 

During Hurricane Helene, supervisors allegedly didn't allow workers to leave the Impact Plastics factory in Erwin, Tennessee as flood waters rose outside. They weren't allowed to leave until it was too late. 

Twelve people were swept away in the floodwaters and all but five of them died.  

Meanwhile, back in Mineral Wells, there were other success stories that prevented tornado deaths. 

Johnson, the Mineral Wells  mayor, said a teenager was home alone but had the presence of mind to hide in a closet as the tornado bore down on their house.  Probably because tornado safety is drilled into Midwestern kids' heads. 

In another case, a husband got into a closet 10 seconds before the tornado hit because his wife was relentlessly nagging him to do so. 

"She's getting a good anniversary present this year, I hope," Johnson said.  

Monday Morning Vermont Update: More Rain And Cool Temperatures After Brief Warmup

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center map for tomorrow
depicting where severe thunderstorms are forecast.
Notice the green over northern New England. 
That's a level one out of five alert levels, meaning
they have a risk of isolated, brief severe storms
for us Tuesday afternoon. We'll see if that pans out. 

So much for what was supposed to be our slightly cool but bright and sunny Sunday. 

Instead, a pool of frigid air thousands of feed overhead fueled lots of clouds, held temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 across most of the state.  

Graupel - a sort of sleety, frozen snow -  fell as I tried to help a St. Albans woman with her garden cleanup, and I'm sure it fell elsewhere. 

I'm sure graupel fell along with light, cold rain showers fell elsewhere in the state Sunday. 

At 4 p.m., it was still only 28 degrees atop Mount Mansfield with a wind chill of 15. Lyndonville at the time was only 44 degrees. 

So, March in May. I'm sure there were lots of complaints.

TODAY

This morning, I awoke to wet ground again in St. Albans. My bar is now set so low I was just grateful to find no snow on the ground. 

Some light showers hit early this morning due to a warm front passing by. A weakening band of additional showers in northern New York early this morning should  hold the clouds over northern Vermont through much of the morning and maybe yield a few more light showers. 

At least the sun is supposedly coming out this afternoon. We'll see!  Highs should get up into the low 60s, which would feel fantastic compared to the chill we dealt with over the weekend. 

Tonight should be mild, too, especially in the Champlain Valley. Warmer nights tend to really boost the spring green up. Our hillsides are starting to show a haze of green as trees bud and flower and baby leaves spring into existence. You'll notice a difference by the end of the day tomorrow. 

TUESDAY

Speaking of differences, there's differences of opinion on how stormy tomorrow afternoon will turn. It'll be a mild day, as temperatures will be able to get into the low 70s for many of us on solid southwest winds and some sunshine. 

We know there's a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. But what about thunderstorms?

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has northern New England, including all but extreme southern Vermont in a marginal risk (level 1 on a five point scale) of severe thunderstorms 

High humidity is one useful ingredient for severe thunderstorms, and we really won't have that.  Dew points will be in the 40s to around 50.  That doesn't scream severe weather like a humid 60 degree dew point might. 

But, there's strong winds aloft, and the atmosphere several thousand feet up will be quite cold. That could help create enough instability to create towering clouds to produce thunderstorms. 

Forecasters also expect high winds aloft. Thunderstorms can grab that high wind and bring it to the surface. That means an isolated risk of wind damage. Winds will also change direction with height, so the Storm Prediction Center even has a very, very minuscule, but not zero percent chance of a brief spin up tornado in central and northern Vermont.  

Everyone agrees this won't be any king of widespread severe outbreak. Just a risk of isolated trouble. 

However, as the National Weather Service office in Burlington points out, there are factors that could mean there might not be any severe weather at all, and maybe not much in the way of any thunderstorms. 

One is that lack of high humidity. Another reason there might not be big storms is that clouds and even light showers could come in during the early and mid-afternoon. That would stabilize the atmosphere and prevent vigorous thunderstorms. 

So, there you have it.  We'll offer updates tomorrow morning, of course. 

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY

National Weather Service prediction map that shows the
amount of rain expected between now and Thursday 
morning. Most of Vermont would get somewhere 
near an inch of rain if this forecast is accurate. 

Everyone seems to agree Tuesday night and Wednesday will be rainy. And colder. Low will drop into the 40s by Wednesday morning and barely make it to 50 Wednesday afternoon amid the cold rain. 

If you're looking for a day to stay inside and get stuff done there, Wednesday' your day. 

Total rainfall right now looks like it will be about an inch, give or take. We could use the soaking, so OK. As always, there could be adjustments to that forecast,

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

It looks like we're in for a repeat of what we had late last week and this past weekend. Clouds, peeks of sun and an ever-present chance of showers. It's too early to pick out when the showers are most likely. Any rain that does fall should be really light and not amount to too much. 

Like this past weekend, it will be cool. But probably not quite a chilly as this past weekend was. Maybe mid to upper 50s instead of low 50s.  We'll take any improvement we can get. 

The overall weather pattern that has kept most days rather cool in the opening days of May should continue through mid-month. But the pattern looks like it wants to slowly get less intense. So, at least after Wednesday, the chances of seeing a day as brisk and cold as this past Saturday and Sunday are diminishing.