Last Of Vermont Drought That Began Last August Ends. But Could It Quickly Return?

For the first time since the August 21, 2025. U.S. 
Drought Monitor, there is no drought in 
Vermont as of this week. The yellow area
depicts "abnormally dry," which is sort of
on the cusp of drought. The drought
could return as relatively dry weather
is in the forecast after it rains Sunday. 

 For the first time since the middle of last August, there is no drought in Vermont. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor in their report issued Thursday. downgraded drought in southeast Vermont to an area labeled "abnormally dry." That means conditions are still on the cusp of a drought, but it's still not quite there. 

It looks like the soaking rain we had on May 14-15 made a difference and moistened things up a bit. That left Vermont with no areas of drought in the state since the August 21, 2025 edition of the U.S. Drought Monitor was released. 

The question is whether the drought will come back. After this weekend, what appears to be a fairly long, relatively dry spell will arrive. Depending  upon how long mostly dry weather lasts, at least parts of Vermont could end up in drought trouble again. 

Sure, it's going to rain this weekend, and the most rain will fall in southeast Vermont, where it's most needed. 

But the expected rainfall isn't a tremendous amount. 

Total rainfall late tonight through Monday looks like it might range between a quarter inch north and  three quarters of an inch far south. Central Vermont would get a third to a half inch of the forecast holds.

SPECIFIC FORECAST

I'll get into the specifics of this weekend, and the outlook into next week further explains why drought might come back.

Today

High overcast has spread across all of Vermont's skies.  It'll remain that way all day, but tend to thicken up later in the day. Weak sunshine getting through in the north should allow temperatures to reach 70 degrees or so. Temperatures should hold in the 60s south.

Sunday

NOAA's 8 to 14 day outlook has our area on the dry
side at least through June 5

The day will begin with light rain falling roughly south and west of Interstate 89. The light rain will spread into the Northeast Kingdom by at least noon. 

Since the rain will be steadier and somewhat heavier south, and the clouds will be thicker there, many areas of southern Vermont could stay in the 40s pretty much all day. That's ridiculously cold for this time of year, but there you go.

In the north, since rain will be lighter, and in some areas won't start until later in the morning, highs should only get into the low 50s, which is still damn chilly for this time of year.

 Even worse, breezes will make it feel colder. Those breezes will probably be especially gusty along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

If you had warm weather outdoor plans for Sunday, you are s*it out of luck. I guess we have to pay for the 90 degree weather we had earlier this week. No good weather goes unpunished.

Memorial Day

Well, it can't get worse than Sunday, so there's that. We will actually see a fair amount of improvement, especially as we get later into the afternoon. It looks like some showers will come through in the morning, but they'll tend to taper off in the afternoon to allow some afternoon sunshine, fingers crossed.

If the sunshine develops, highs should get into the low 70s. If it stays cloudy, we'll settle for 60s. Again, that's a LOT better than Sunday's misery.

NEXT WEEK

A brief warm up, then a cooling trend starting Wednesday and continuing at least into next weekend. 

A steep dip in the jet stream will develop just to our east, and a pool of cold air might settle overhead by next weekend, Though a forecast that far out is iffy, so you can still take it with a big grain of salt. 

If the forecasts do pan out at least sort of correctly, Tuesday will bring us nice highs in the low 80s.  Then it cools into the still very pleasant  70s Wednesday, near 70 Thursday, in the 60s Friday and even cooler than that next weekend. In fact, some models make us quite cold, so we'll see how that works out.

This type of weather pattern features a chance of showers, and we'll have that chance daily starting Wednesday and going into the weekend. But these should be very light scattered showers. And they're more likely to hit northern Vermont and not so much in the south. 

Also, I know long range patterns are shaky, but NOAA has the dry weather in all of New England lasting well into the first week of June. Even longer range forecasts into the middle of June do moisten us up a little to near normal precipitation.  

After The Nice Rains, Parts Of Vermont Still Need More. Instead, Get Ready For A Quick Heat Flash

NOAA's "water year" map. A water year goes from
October 1 to September 30. In the water year so
far, almost all of New England is behind
schedule with rainfall. Some places are eight
inches or more shy on rainfall. The only place
in New England that's near normal is northwest
Vermont. Click on the map to make it bigger
and easier to see. 

We have a much more complete accounting of that nice rain we received this week in the increasingly Green Mountain State. We have a lot to be thankful for. 

The only disappointment was the heaviest rain avoided southern Vermont where it was more needed, but at least they got a decent wetting to get them through a few more days. 

The big winner in the Vermont rainfall sweepstakes seems to be Orange County. Good, because much of that county was regarded as dry in the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor and the southern tip of the south was in drought. 

In Orange County and southern Caledonia counties, rainfall exceeded two inches, including 2.63 inches in Corinth, 2.43 inches in Stratford and 2.34 inches in Groton. 

Virtually all of central and northern Vermont received one to two inches of rain. 

Windham County in southeastern Vermont is the most droughty area of Vermont. They got anywhere between 0.75 and 1.25 inches, so, not bad.

Bennington County was regarded as abnormally dry, too, especially near the Massachusetts border. Unfortunately, the rainfall distribution there was wrong. They got anywhere from a quarter inch near the Mass border to an inch as you get closer to Rutland County to the  north. 

NEED STILL MORE RAIN

It might seem like the streams are running strong and the soil is mushy underfoot. Yet there's still a water deficit left over from last year, sort of our drought hangover.

NOAA watches something called the water year. It's the accumulation of precipitation - rain, melted snow and ice - from October 1 through September 30. 

Here in the Northeast, as of mid-May, most places are having a below normal water year, and some places are ridiculously below normal.  Parts of southern and eastern New England are more than eight inches behind normal as of now 

Here in Vermont, Bennington County is one of those places that is at least eight inches short on rainfall since the beginning of last October. Most of the remainder of Vermont is lacking in rainfall.  The rest of southern Vermont outside of Bennington County is   between four and eight inches shy on precipitation. North central and Northeast Vermont is one to four inches behind schedule.

The only lucky place in all of New England is northwest Vermont. Precipitation there since October 1, 2025 is pretty close to normal.

Next up, not much rain is in the forecast, but it's going to turn much warmer. And overall, warm air creates more evaporation than cooler air, so it'll dry us out faster. Some details: 

TODAY

We started the day mild and sunny, which is a fantastic way to start a Saturday. It'll get breezy, and you'll see more and more clouds mixing this afternoon. There's even a chance of a light spot shower late in the day, but most of us will say dry. Highs get well into the 70s, so that'll be a nice switch from what we endured all week. 

By the way, today, and over the next few days,  it will be quite a bit cooler near Lake Champlain. The water is still cold, and winds blowing off the lake will dramatically cool the air in places next to the lake. 

SUNDAY

The disturbance that would bring the widely scattered showers later today includes the lamest of cold fronts. So northern areas will probably "only" make it into the low 70s under sunny skies. Somehow, I think we'll endure those "chillier" conditions. Southern Vermont stays warm with highs in the 70s to around 80

MONDAY

Summer preview is on!  There still might be a spot shower early in the day north with a warm front passing through, but overall, sunny and breezy with highs in the low 80s in most valleys is on tap. In the grand scheme of things, low 80s isn't exactly hot, but we're not used to such temperatures, so take it easy with the heavy outdoor work

TUESDAY

It looks like it's going to be hotter and more humid. For now, forecasters are expecting highs right up there in the 80s. How hot it gets depends on afternoon clouds and the timing of scattered showers and thunderstorms  If it stays clear until later in the day, some areas could flirt with 90 degrees. If there were more showers and storms than expected, readings would hold near 80 degrees. 

Either way, it'll get kind of humid, so take it easy out there

WEDNESDAY

A wild card. It all depends when an expected cold front comes through. If it's late in the day, it'll be in the 80s again, and humid. A late day cold front also increases the chances of scattered strong thunderstorms. 

If the front comes through earlier in the day, the chances of big storms goes very much downhill. And you'll notice refreshingly drier air late in the day. Stay tuned on that one.

LATE WEEK

Definitely cooler, but not nearly as chilly as this week has been. Highs then should be in the 60s.

Chilly And Rainy In Vermont Again Today, But Big Changes Are On Their Way

My "pink tree" as a call it, bloomed out this week despite
relatively cool weather. This tree was just about dead
when I bought the property nearly 20 years ago, 
but I managed to save it and I've gotten it to thrive. 

We endured another nippy May day on Wednesday, with the afternoon arguably being the coldest of the month. 

Light rainfall held temperatures in the 40s until evening, when the rain temporarily ended and parts of Vermont made it into the low 50s. 

That's still ten to 15 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Even the fleece I was wearing yesterday didn't seem warm enough. Shiver me timbers indeed!

Not far upstream in New York yesterday, though, things were different. Watertown and Fort Drum were at 61 degrees at 3 p.m. The air was warm an humid enough to trigger a few severe thunderstorms in western New York.

There was even a tornado warning for northwestern New York. I don't have any word on whether anything touched down, but if it did, it would have been not far from Pulaski, New York. That's an area south of Watertown that is much more famous for epic lake effect blizzards than it is for tornadoes. 

Our (sort of) proximity to severe weather and warmer temperatures is a sign that our cool weather will end soon. 

On the bright side, this morning was much warmer than in recent days. As a gray, rainy dawn broke, temperatures across Vermont were within a few degrees either side of 50.  That makes it probably the warmest morning since May 

Clouds and rain,  however, will give us one more cool day. But that's OK, we need the rain. Vermont got about a tenth of an inch of rain yesterday, give or take, so we still need a good soaking. Meanwhile, the warm weather that's been knocking on our door will finally begin to make its move into Vermont tomorrow. 

Here are the details. 

TODAY

The upper level low that was in New York yesterday has settled down to our south a bit, and is trying to funnel a band of deep Atlantic moisture into New England. Vermont is sort of near the western edge of that moisture, but we should still get a good soaking. 

If you're in the western Adirondacks or St. Lawrence Valley of New York, you're out of luck for rain today. You'll only get a little. But you guys got more rain than Vermont yesterday, so let's call it even. 

For Vermont, most areas should have a storm total of at least an inch of rain. That includes rain from yesterday and last night and whatever falls today through early Friday. 

The wild card is western Vermont. One decent slug of rain went through all of the state, including the Champlain Valley early this morning. Will the rest of the rain hit that area? This morning's forecast seems to say yes. Maybe places like Burlington and St. Albans will get slightly less rain than the rest of Vermont, but still get a little under an inch total.

But, if the moisture feed shifts just a tiny bit east, far western Vermont could get cheated. As of this morning,  the forecast seems to suggest after a bit of a morning lull, western Vermont will still share in the bounty of the rain. Fingers crossed. But if the rain doesn't materialize, now you'll know why. 

The big winner for Vermont in this storm looks like it will be southeastern Vermont. The U.S. Drought Monitor still has drought conditions in the lower Connecticut Valley, and New Hampshire, and western Maine. 

In fact in Vermont, this week's U.S. Drought Monitor, hot off the presses at 8:30 this morning, shows the drought expanded across a much larger portion of southern Vermont since last week. Drought now covers all an area from the Green Mountains east below White River Junction. 

Those drought areas should get the most rain today and tonight. We're talking a good inch or inch and a half, with locally higher amounts. 

So in a sense, this is a perfect storm. Not the violent, scary, deadly Perfect Storm of 1991, obviously. But a perfect storm of drought-denting rains, which should make everyone happy. 

The only unhappy aspect of the day will be the temperatures. The rain and clouds will hold us down in the mid and upper 50s. Normal highs this year should be between 65 and 70 degrees. 

FRIDAY

This will be our transition day toward what I call "pre-summer." During pre-summer, which usually goes from late May to mid-June, most days are pretty warm, in the 70s. You still get some nasty cool days that hold in the 50s, but other days are full-on summer with temperatures getting into the 80s or even to 90.

That's what we have coming up. 

Tomorrow might still be a wee bit on the cool side for this time of year. Early showers will give way to clouds, then some afternoon clearing. Instability in the air might allow Ma Nature to sneak in a scattered afternoon shower, but those should be few and far between. And those temperatures will get into the reasonable 60s. It'll be the hottest day since this past Sunday, and that's only the beginning.

WEEKEND

Ah! Pre-summer arrives full on. Under sunny skies, temperatures should soar way up into the 70s on Saturday. A weak disturbance might bring us a few scattered hit and miss showers Sunday morning, but it won't be anything widespread. The disturbance will probably knock temperatures back down to near 70 north Sunday, but southern parts of the state should still get well into the 70s. 

EARLY WEEK

It looks like we'll get a brief burst of full summer weather. It should get into the 70s Monday under sunny skies. That will be a great opportunity to install your window air conditioner. The reason for that is Tuesday. Unless something goes completely wrong with the forecast, it looks like Tuesday's highs could soar well into the 80s. And the humidity might creep up a tad.

We're not used to 80 degree weather, says Captain Obvious. The last time it was in the 80s in Vermont was during a record-breaking heat wave on October 5-7, 2025.

A cold front should arrive later Tuesday and Wednesday, which would knock temperatures back down tot the 60s and low 70s later next week. That's a long range forecast of course, so take it with a giant hunk of rock salt. 

 

 

Big Parts Of Colorado Just Had Their Biggest Snowstorm In Almost A Quarter Century; Up To 28 Inches Reported

Apparently, no al fresco dining in Estes Park, Colorado
after 28 inches of snow fell yesterday and today. 
Photo via Facebook from Matt Levitt Weather

A late season snowstorm has hit large swaths of Wyoming and Colorado which sounds depressing for so late in the season.  

Instead, people are rejoicing, because as the snow melts, it will put the first real dent in the areas's drought in months. 

New snow was reported as deep as 26.1 inches way up in the high country of Boulder County. The city of Boulder itself got about 10 inches. Up in Estes Park in Larimer County, between 22 and 28 inches fell. 

All of Colorado is experiencing a drought. The snow is great news.  What had been expected to be an extraordinarily early start to the fire season might be postponed by a few weeks.  At least in the Front Range.

There was quite a bit of water in that snow. As of late this morning, Fort Collins reported 5.3 inches of snow with total melted precipitation of 1.75 inches. 

Denver itself reportedly got around three or four inches downtown, and around 4.5 to 5 inches around the rest of the city.  This means this was the second or third largest snowstorm of the "winter" even though it hit well into spring.  It was the biggest May snowstorm in Denver since 2003. 

The Denver snow, melted down, amounted to at least 1.1 inches of what is basically rainfall. 

 Final tallies aren't in yet, which is why I"m saying "at least." 

As the snow falls. the warm ground is making it melt from the bottom, and the water soaks into the soil. Once the snow stops, rising temperatures will make the remaining snow melt, which will continue to add moisture to the soil. Gradually, instead of running off like downpours would. So this is perfect. 

Northwestern Colorado is experiencing the worst drought conditions in the state. Many areas in western Colorado unfortunately mostly missed out on the precipitation. Grand Junction, Colorado only had 0.05 inches of precipitation. Gunnison had a little under a quarter inch. 

Which means the drought and potential fire problems are not at all over in Colorado. And most of the rest of the West. 

This isn't to say the storm caused no problems. It did. 

Trees has mostly leafed out in the Denver and Boulder areas thanks to a record warm winter and toasty early spring. Peonies were even blooming. The weight of the snow on leafed out trees caused many branches to snap. Some of them onto power lines. 

About 47,000 Colorado homes and businesses were without power as of early this afternoon. 

Coloradans face some garden misery tonight. The snow is ending, but a snow covered ground means it'll get very cold very fast tonight. A freeze warning is in effect for the entire area that had snow. 

The snowstorm in Colorado will soon be forgotten. The snow will melt and quickly!

 Forecasters expect the highs in the low 60s around Denver tomorrow, near 70 Friday through Sunday and rising to the low and mid 80s by early next week.

And the snowstorm isn't traveling anywhere else to hassle any springtime enthusiasts. It's just kind of dwindling away to nothing and drying up.

Spring Rains Easing Lingering Vermont Drought: A Dry Week Will End In A Wet Spell

All winter and early spring, the U.S Drought
Monitor showed continues moderate drought
in northeast Vermont, (orange) and 
abnormal dryness south (yellow)......

Lingering drought in Vermont was literally frozen in place all winter. 

The very serious drought the state experienced last summer and fall had eased somewhat thanks to decent rains in the late autumn. 

Severe drought in northeastern Vermont improved to moderate drought as we went through December, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. But then the improvement stopped. 

The northeastern third of the state remained in moderate drought, and southern Vermont was abnormally dry through the winter and early spring. 

Rivers, lakes and the ground had frozen as we'd gotten deeper into winter. Most of the precipitation fell as snow. Snow is only potential drought relief. It doesn't really help anything unless it melts.  The question remained: Was the drought continuing to est. 

The thawing of spring has cleared that up. The dry conditions are improving. 

We didn't actually see any change in the weekly drought reports until the April 16 weekly report. Drought had been reduced to a small area in the Connecticut River valley. The Northeast Kingdom and southern Vermont were still abnormally dry, but not quite in drought. 

This week's U.S. Drought Monitor report, released yesterday, shows just a sliver of the Connecticut River Valley between about White River Junction and Springfield still in drought. That area represents only about 4% of Vermont's land area were still in drought. 

Most of the rest of southern Vermont was still abnormally dry, but that designation was removed in the Northeast Kingdom. The drought in northern parts of the Green Mountain State that began last August  is finally over, at least for now. 

The measurements the U.S. Drought Monitor uses go up to Tuesday, two days before the report is released. 

This week's U.S. Drought Monitor, released
yesterday. has only a small area of drought
near White River Junction and Springfield
and abnormal dryness in southern
Vermont. Elsewhere the trough is over. 

This week, Vermont has entered a notable dry spell. Nothing other than isolated sprinkles and a few snowflakes have fallen since this past Tuesday. 

No rain is forecast until at least next Tuesday. The air will remain very dry over the next few days, with rock-bottom humidity levels. Strong April sun will penetrate to the ground through still-leafless trees. 

That means we might  have a little backsliding in next week's U.S. Drought Monitor report, but I wouldn't worry too much.

Week-long spells of very dry weather are common in late April and early May. It doesn't mean they will last that long. 

In fact, forecasters have relatively high confidence that we'll enter a wetter period starting in about five days or so. I don't' see boatloads of rain coming,

Most of the time over the next couple of weeks, we won't have any actual storms bringing steadier rain to the North Country. We'll probably have a couple such storms, but they won't represent the majority of the weather we'll face.

Instead, a pool of very cold, subfreezing air will settle in several thousand feet overhead. In the winter, that would have meant a long, miserable slog of overcast skies and light snow flurries.

This time of year, with the strong spring sun, that means the cold air aloft will create tall, billowing clouds.  That means frequent showers, especially in the afternoons and evenings, mixed with a few breaks of clouds. We might well get into an early May pattern where it rains every day or close to it, but very few days would be a washout. 

We'll have to wait a few days to see if the weather will work out exactly that way. We'll also have to wait until next week to determine which days turn out mostly wet, and which turn out mostly dry with just a few showers. 

SPECIFIC VERMONT FORECAST

In the meantime, sunshine is the name of the game.

Here are some specifics

Today/Saturday

Today will be the coolest day of the bunch. Most of us had a frost and freeze this morning. No worries, we always get those this time of year and it wasn't enough to harm garden plants. 

Highs this afternoon will only get to the upper 40s in the Northeast Kingdom to the low 50s elsewhere. There should be some mid-50s on southern valley floors. 

It will feel a little confusing out there, just as it did yesterday. When there's a lull in the wind, it will feel warm and you'll wonder why you're wearing that damn fleece.  Then a little gust of wind will come along and you'll know why. 

Tonight will actually be a little colder than last night. Almost everyone will get into the mid and upper 20s. It might be closer to 30 in the warmer valleys. 

Such temperatures would be a big problem in mid-May when everything is blooming. But the early stuff out there now should do just fine. 

The storm that caused the tornadoes and rough weather in the Plains Thursday is shearing apart. The remains of the storm will create an area of rain that will dive down from basically Buffalo, New York, to New York, City on Saturday. 

That will leave us in the clear, with maybe some high clouds, especially in southwestern Vermont.  It'll be a few degrees warmer than today, but still just a touch on the cool side. 

Sunday/Monday

The sunshine fest will continue, as highs top out near 60 degrees both days. That's roughly normal for this time of year. Yes, 60 is normal. We're in full spring now. 

Tuesday and Beyond

We might squeak out one more sunny day Tuesday. It depends on the pace of a weakening storm that will be headed our way. After that, the showery regime I mentioned should settle in for awhile. 

April Wildfires Rage In U.S. There's Even A FIre Threat Here In Vermont

Screen grab of a report from WPTZ of a brush fire that
got out of control in Shelburne Wednesday. Much
of the state has a high fire danger today. Elsewhere
in the U.S. much, much worse wildfires have been raging

It's been a terrible wildfire year already in the U.S. and it continued to get worse on Wednesday. 

Fires raged in Georgia, Florida and other states. It's a continuation of a fiery spring in the United States. 

So far this year, through April 17, the nation has seen 20,915 wildfires, the most in recent history and far above the average of 13,597 through that date, the National Interagency Fire Center reported. 

As of April 17, 1,748,490 acres have burned, far above the average of  875,957 through mid-April.  With drought raging in much of the nation, the fires will only get worse as we head into the summer. 

The last few days have made things even worse.

In drought-stricken southern Georgia, at least 50 homes were destroyed by wildfires.  Hundreds of people have been evacuated. Much of Georgia is under mandatory burn bans for the first time in the state's history. The fires are mostly in southern Georgia and northern Florida, where an intense drought is worsening. 

In northern Floria, firefighters battled more than 130 wildfires that burned 39 square miles, NBC News reported. 

Further north, a smoky haze engulfed Atlanta.

In Colorado, a fast moving fire southeast of Colorado Springs prompted evacuation. 

Today, fire alerts run from New Mexico and northwest Texas all the way to eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota.

VERMONT FIRES

Here in Vermont, things are not nearly as dire as they are in Florida, Georgia, Colorado and other places beset with big wildfires.

But April and early May represent peak wildfires season here in the Green Mountain State. Mostly because said Green Mountain State is not that green yet. Last year's dead brush and leaves, exposed to the sun through leafless trees, dry out in a flash. Even a day or two after rain or snow. 

We've already a few dry episodes with fires this spring. This year through yesterday, 28 Vermont fires have burned 143.6 acres, according to data from the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation. 

 Just yesterday in Shelburne, WPTZ reports that somebody called the town's fire department for a burn permit after already setting the field alight. The fire department turned down the request. 

Meanwhile the fire got out of control as winds gusted to as high as 25 to 30 mph. Firefighters from three departments got the fire contained after it burned about a half acre. No word from the report as to whether the property owner was cited. 

Officials are warning of potential fires today, especially in lower valleys. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has issued a special weather statement warning of fire danger in the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys and the valleys of southwest Vermont. 

Very dry air and gusty winds could really spread fires today. Now is not the time to burn your brush pile, or flick a cigarette out your truck window. 

Dry weather will continue through the weekend, which keeps the fire danger going. But winds starting tomorrow will be lighter than the 25 to 30 mph gusts we'll see today. 

GREAT WEATHER!

A daffodil enjoying some early morning sunshine
today in St. Albans, Vermont. We have great
spring weather coming for the next few days
but there is a high fire danger, especially today.

Aside from the fire danger, we have just launched into a spell of great spring weather. Skies should have at least a fair amount of sun daily through Sunday or Monday. April showers bring May flowers, but so does April sunshine. 

Cool weather, especially today and tomorrow will be invigorating for those of you who want to go out and get yard work done. 

Highs today and tomorrow should mostly be in the low and mid 50s

We will have freezes tonight and tomorrow night as readings  fall to between 25 and 30 degrees both nights. This won't be cold enough to endanger spring plants like the sharper, colder spell we had Monday and Tuesday morning. 

At least around my area in northwest Vermont, most of my spring plants survived Tuesday morning's frigid temperatures. They'll do fine this time, too. 

But if you are hardening off more tender plants on your deck or whatever, bring them in tonight, tomorrow night and maybe the night after that, too. 

The weekend will turn a little warmer, with highs near 60, which is about normal for this time of year. It looks like skies will be partly to mostly sunny, so we have a fantastic weekend coming up, fingers crossed. 

The Vermont Maple Festival is this weekend in St. Albans, so it'll be a perfect weekend for that, too! 

Unprecedented Heat From March Still Has Climatologists, Others, Losing Sleep At Night, But It's All A Scary Sign Of The Times

March was so hot in the western and central U.S. was so
extreme it's still keeping climatologists up at night.
These kinds of "unprecedented" hot spells and 
extremes are now becoming regular occurrences
in this age of climate change. 

There's patches of record warmth remaining in the United States as we make our way through the first week of April, but the extreme, whackadoodle heat of March has subsided. 

Scientists are still agog from March, which is easily going down in history as among the most extreme, over the top, seemingly impossible climate-related events hot spells ever seen.  The heat wave completely rewrote the March weather record books in the western and central U.S. 

It was the kind of event that keeps climatologists up at night.  Especially since these "impossible" events are coming along in a steady stream now. Each one bigger than the last. And each one potentially more deadly. 

We're lucky this one hit in March, months before summer. Had it happened in July, who knows how many deaths would have been created by just the hot days themselves? Even so, the heat set the stage for a potential summer of out-of-control wildfires and deep water shortages. 

Already, fires are burning months before they should. A raging wildfire threatened homes in Moreno Valley , California last week. It was the kind of fire you see in parched late summer and early autumn and not moist March. But the rules have changed. March is the new summer, apparently.  

Nebraska just experienced their largest wildfires in history, burning an area larger than Rhode Island. 

And we've probably only just begun with the fires.

THE EXTREME MARCH HEAT

It's hard to know where even to begin with the accounting for March's heat. 

AccuWeather gives just a glimpse of the breadth of the March heat wave: 

 "During the unprecedented mid-March heat waves in the central and western United States, more than 8,200 daily records and more than 2,000 monthly records were broken at weather stations across the West."

Incredibly, 17 states set new March record highs.  And these are large western and central states, not smaller Eastern states where it's a bit easier to accumulate numerous record highs. Many of these states broke monthly record highs, only to have those records broken in subsequent days. 

The nation saw its hottest March temperature on record at 112 degrees. It came close to setting the April national record of 113 degrees.

No fewer than 16 western cities not only broke their all-time highs for the month of March, they also broke or tied the mark for April, which is beyond insane. 

On March 19 alone, nearly half of the 900 or so long term U.S.. weather stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network set or tied daily record highs. 

More than four dozen major reporting stations with data since at least the 1960s had their warmest March in history.  Major cities that had their warmest March on record, - most of them by a wide margin - include Dallas, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Albuquerque, Denver, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco. 

Once all the numbers are crunched, it looks like Colorado will end up with a March that was three or four degrees warmer than any other in the past 130 years or so. For a state to break its statewide record for hottest March by a degree is wild. By three degrees ----there's no words for it. 

We still don't have confirmation as to whether March, 2026, is the nation's hottest on record. That will come in a week or two. But it was at the very least as warm as what was considered the impossibly hot March of 2012.

CHAIN OF EXTREMES 

Climate change doesn't just warm up the world uniformly. It sets traps. Springs surprises. 

As Yale Climate Connections notes: 

"Since climate change is also fundamentally disrupting atmospheric circulation patterns, we now have mega-unprecedented extreme events occurring with regularity. These circulation changes allow the biggest regional and local heat extremes to intensify by a much larger margin than the roughly 1.4 degrees Celsius increase in average global temperature since preindustrial times."

Honestly, climate change contributes to new extremes every weeks, or so it seems. But the standouts - the weather events that make climatologists and other scientists deeply worry about the future  - seemed to begin almost exactly 14 years prior to this March's heat.

In March, 2012 most of the heat focused on the central and eastern United States.  Thousands of daily record highs were set, as were hundreds of all time record highs for March.  Among those thousands of record highs, nearly four dozen were broken by at least 22 degrees, which is beyond insane. Four record highs were smashed by 30 degrees. In a handful of cases, the low temperature on a particular date on March 12 was warmer than the record high.

 "An initial assessment led by Martin Hourlong at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories concede that human-produced warming likely contributed on the order of 5% to 10% of the magnitude the heat woven March 12-23, 2012, The report added: "the probability of heat waves is growing as (greenhouse gas)-induced warming continues to progress," notes Yale Climate Connections. 

Still, we figured we wouldn't see another March, 2012 in our lifetimes again. Until we did.

The March heat of 2012 came at the tail end of a La Nina, and led to an extreme, punishing drought across the nation's middle that summer.  We're in the same situation now. It might not be just the western mountains that are running out of water. 

Much of the central and southern Plains are already in serious drought. Will this key crop growing area further dry out? There's already plenty of other stresses out there with food production - political instability, tariffs, war, a feckless president.  

We are set up for a rough summer, and March probably just made it much, much more rough. 

WATER SHORTAGES?

Colorado's snow pack ended the month at less than a quarter of average. Eighty-nine of 94 snow pack measuring stations were at record lows by the end of March. 

It's not just Colorado. It's virtually all of the West. Per the Guardian: 

'This year is on a whole other level.' say Dr. Russ Schumacher, a Colorado State University climatologist, speaking about the intense heat that began rapidly melting the already sparse snowpack in March. 'Seeing this year so far below any of the other years we have data for is very concerning."

On April 1, media went out to join California water officials to take a measurement of the water content of snow at a spot in the Sierra Nevada. Normally, the group would be standing on five feet of snow. This time, they were standing on a muddy field, flecked with melting remains of snow patches. 

Snow water equivalent is a measurement is the amount of water of that would melt out of the snow that's still on the ground.  This figure is now terrifying throughout the West. 

The overall snow water equivalent in the Sierra Nevada on April 1 was just 18 percent of average for this time of year.  In the Great Basin, snow water equivalent was just 16 percent of normal. In the lower Colorado River basin area, including most of Arizona and Nevada, it was 10 percent. The Rio Grande, which covers New Mexico, Texas and Colorado was at 8 percent. 

Because of a record warm winter, the snow pack was far below normal before March arrived. Everyone hoped for a "March Miracle," as some bad years in the past were relieved by cold, stormy Marches. Not this year. Not by a long shot.

If this were just one bad year, we'd be OK. But the six lowest April 1 snowpacks in California have happened since 2007. The state thought it was finally catching a break in January as it fully emerged from drought for the first time since in a quarter century. 

Reservoirs are pretty full in California, thanks to warm rains in recent winters that filled them even though the state couldn't build a decent snowpack. So at least for this year, the problem for most of that state would be intense wildfires but not necessarily widespread water shortages. 

Elsewhere, things are not nearly so serene. 

In the Colorado basin, Lake Mead is 25 percent full. Lake Powell was only 33 percent or so full at last check. Both lakes usually rise somewhat in the spring due to snow melt. It doesn't look like that's really happening this year. 

Water managers area already urging conservation in the West. 

Salt Lake City has called on residents and businesses to start conserving now, with a goal of cutting overall water usage by 10 percent, Also, as the Guardian reports:

"Across Colorado, there are local orders that list lawn watering, and in Wyoming, residents were warned that full restrictions on outdoor irrigation could come come as early as May."

Farmers and ranchers across the West are also having to make hard decisions and big adjustments with smaller allocations of water and a recognition that supplies will be strained. 

TIMING

What if a heat dome like the one we just saw in March hit during the middle of summer? And hit in a place not accustomed to extreme heat. 

We found out in late June and early July, 2021 when an unprecedented - here's that word again - intense, heat settled into southwestern Canada and the Pacific Northwest of the United States.

 All-time heat records in the Pacific Northwest were not just broken, they were obliterated. Portland Oregon reached 116 degrees. Salem, Oregon was 117 degrees. Rainy, cool Seattle reached 108 degrees.

The heat of 2021 was even more punishing in British Columbia, Canada. On June 29, 2021, the town of Lytton, British Columbia reached 121 degrees, the hottest temperature ever recorded anywhere in Canada. By a long shot. Before this heat wave, the hottest it had gotten anywhere in Canada was 113 degrees back in the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s. 

The next day, Lytton burned down in a massive wildfire brought on by the scorching heat and drought. 

The 2021 heat wave is estimated to have caused at least 1,400 deaths in Canada and the U.S. 

What if a heat dome like that in 2021 settled into the heavily populated eastern United States and southeastern Canada? And what if it lasted a month, not a week? Nobody is prepared for such a nightmare. 

However, we'll find out soon enough. Perhaps this summer. Or the next. And it won't be pretty. 

 

One Day Of Spring Today In Vermont Before Winter Returns For A Two-Day Visit

Much of the snow that fell last week on my yard
had melted by this morning. Most of the rest should
go today under mild southerly breezes along
with a little late day rain. 

March and April tend to bring wildly variable weather across Vermont on a given day, and yesterday was sort of that way. 

A weather front was draped across the state yesterday. As expected, this created a fairly wide temperature difference across Vermont. 

On the Canadian border, it was in the mid-30s most of the afternoon, while southern Vermont valleys reached the low 50s. Again, that was in line with forecasts.

Overnight, the front moved north, dropping a few rain drops and maybe some mountain snowflakes.

TODAY

The front is stalling out just north of the border. The temperature contrast on either side of the front is still sharp, but now it's mostly southern Quebec's problem. Highgate, Vermont, right on the Canadian border was at 43 degrees at 8 a.m today. Montreal, just 50 miles north as the crow flies, was at 25 degrees.

The fact that front is so close to Vermont will mean we'll still see a pretty big temperature variation today. 

Right up by the Canadian border, it should get into the upper 40s, to possibly near 50. By the time you get down to Burlington, it should top out in the mid 50s.  The warmest valleys in far southern Vermont could make it into the mid 60s.  For the record, the warm front should get close enough to Montreal so that they get to about 40 degrees. 

Also, the further north you go, the cloudier it will get, too.  

It should be mostly dry until mid to late afternoon, when rain will increase as our cold front approaches. 

TONIGHT

The bulk of the rain should come through during the first half of the night. As has so often been the case this winter and early spring, forecasters have at nearly the last moment cut back on the amount of precipitation we're going to get. 

Northern areas should only see a tenth to a third of an inch of rain, because a small storm riding in tandem with, but just south of the cold front is going further south than expected. That means far southern Vermont should still see the previously expected half inch or so of rain.

The lighter expected rain is a bit of a disappointment. Yes, yes, I know, it's awfully wet and squishy underfoot, this being mud season and all.  But we could have used more snow and rain over the winter. 

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, hot off the presses this morning,  continues to show moderate drought in the Northeast Kingdom and abnormally dry conditions across southern Vermont. 

Vermont had its 10th driest February on record, according to NOAA. Since many storms were smaller than expected in March, the month will turn out to be a little on the dry side for most of Vermont. Overall precipitation during the earlier parts of winter were just, well, whelming. Just kind of meh. 

It's good that rainfall wasn't excessive in March, that would have led to flooding, but a little more rain than we received would have been better. 

I'm actually hoping for a really wet April to saturate the ground before trees leaf out and start really pulling moisture from the soil.  I know we want a nice sunny spring, but as Lynn Anderson sang, "along with the sunshine, there's gotta be a little rain sometime."

COLD SNAP

It's just as good, though, that we won't have a lot of precipitation tomorrow, Saturday and into Sunday, because if we did, it would be unwelcome snow. 

We might see a little snow at the tail end of our overnight cold front, but by morning, you'll see at most a thin dusting of snow.

The forecast for the cold weather Friday and Saturday hasn't changed. It'll be at or a little below freezing for most of us during the afternoons both days.  Lows will be in the single numbers and low teens. That's normal for the end of February, not the end of March. 

At least the sun will be out both days to take some of the edge off the chill.   The real cold weather will end by Sunday afternoon,  when it'll get up to about 40 degrees.

Looking ahead beyond that, next week looks really iffy, as we will be once again near the border between Canadian winter cold and balmy spring breezes from the South. Our next shot at any noticeably precipitation would come along around next Wednesday. 

Western Drought Creates Weird New Hazard: Lake Powell Quicksand

A person in the danger zone around quicksand on the 
shores of Lake Powell on the Utah/Arizona border

 The lake level in drought-stricken Lake Powell has dropped so low that it has left behind a weird danger: Quicksand. 

Actually, there's alway has been quicksand around Lake Powell, which straddles the Utah/Arizona border.

But now it's everywhere it seems, due to the crashing lake level from drought. 

Sediment flows into Lake Powell and collects as a wet sand near the bottom or on rock shelves on or above the lakebed.  These sediment areas are now above water and in many instances have taken the form of  quicksand along shorelines and drainages in Lake Powell. 

The lake is part of the popular Glen Canyon National Recreation Area. 

All those old time movies or cartoons depicting quicksand is something that pulls people in until they're buried and dead and gone forever is a myth. Someone who get stuck in quicksand typically stop sinking once they're in waist deep. 

But it can still trap people, and can be dangerous if they're alone and can't get out of it. If a person is alone and can't get out, they'll likely die of hypothermia if help doesn't arrive. 

But once you're in that far, it's incredibly hard to get out. To pull one leg requires the amount of force need to lift a small car, notes Livescience.com

The more you move around, the more you'll sink. A disturbance such as a person entering quicksand will liquify it. "The wet sand sediment becomes so densely packed that it's harder to move than cold molasses. Once the victim's foot becomes stuck in it, the situation is dire," notes Livescience.com

You're left with the densely packed sand keeps you in place with water on top. 

After some experiments with quicksand, experts have devised a way for people to get out of quicksand. Remember this if you're ever tempted to try the Lake Powell quicksand experience.  

 Livescience.com  tells us: 

"Stay calm and eventually, you'll float Stretch out on your back to increase hour surface area and wait until your legs pop free," At this point, moving your legs around at this point to stir in water, and that will help you float.

Of course, people panic, so it's always best to have somebody with you who could seek help. 

So far, I haven't heard of anybody getting into serious, life-threatening trouble with the quicksand. But Lake Powell is getting busier. Spring breakers have invaded the area and the summer tourism season is right around the corner, 

The National Park Service suggests hikers stay close to canyon walls and hike with a buddy. People should check suspicious ground with a walking stick to test the area.

The quicksand will appear as wet, loose, or unusually smooth ground, or unexpected water seepage or pooling, vibrating soil, surfaces that look soft or spongy, NPS spokesperson Heidi Grigg said. 

If you see something like that, it's best to go around it. Preferably on hard rocks. 

OTHER LOW WATER ISSUES

Lake Powell's low water levels is having another impact on summer recreation: The lake is so low, and thus so much smaller, that there's not as much room to launch boats.  That means long lines and a lot more time spent getting boats in and out of the water.

Obviously, the western drought and Lake Powell's troubles aren't limited to isolated quicksand crises or boating inconveniences 

Water managers' goals is to keep the lake level in Powelll to at least 3,525 feet above sea leave. If it gets to 3,490 feet, Glen Canyon Dam, which holds back Lake Powell, can no longer generate any electricity. 

That means utilities will need to turn to more expensive and often more polluting sources to generate electricity. 

The quicksand, the boats, the electricity generation is just the edges of the deep crisis developing in the Southwest. Drought had already been established for years. Then mountain snowpack was the worst on record in many areas, thanks to the warmest winter in the West on record. 

Then, this month, by far the most intense, record shattering March heat wave ever seen settled in for a long visit in the Southwest. This prematurely melted whatever paltry mountain snow pack there was, and further dried out the region much more than anybody anticipated for so early in the season. 

You're going to see a lot of posts this year in this here blog thingy about western drought, western water shortened, western wildfires, and all sorts of big time problems associated with a climate-changed, hot, dry landscape. 

Video: 

Experienced hikers encounter quicksand at Lake Powell.  They knew how to get out of the situation  and you can see them do so in the vid. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that:

 

 

 

sSpring Arrives Friday: What To Expect, And Hopes For A (Slightly) Wet Season

Astronomical spring starts this coming Friday. I
am definitely ready for it!

 Spring arrived on March 1 for people enmeshed in meteorology and climatology. 

But the rest of the world goes by the start of astronomical spring. For us, spring starts at 10:46 a.m. this Friday. Hallelujah! 

The early signs of spring are already here: 

Red wing blackbirds have been doing their "conk la REE" song for a week or two now. There's rumored sightings of crocuses in protected southern exposures around the state. The first green nubs of my daffodils have tentatively poked through the ground in may gardens. 

Clearly,  the worst of winter is over for most of us. Don't tell that to anybody in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, which just had a record blizzard there, and some places in the region have four to as many as six feet of snow on the ground. I'm glad that's not our problem!  

Average temperatures around rise fastest from around mid-March to mid-April.  In Burlington, the  normal high temperature today is 41 degrees. By April 18, a mere month from now, normal afternoon temperatures will be 57 degrees, so that's quite an improvement.. 

Even though a generally cooler the normal weather pattern has set up, it will get more and more difficult to see some truly wintry cold waves. Difficult but not impossible. It's been below zero in Burlington as late as March 29 1923   Widespread subzero cold froze Vermont as late as April 7, 1972.

But spring is volatile in Vermont. It's also been as hot as 84 degrees in March (1946 and 1998) and 92 degrees in April (1976).

On the negative side, measurable snow has fallen well into May in the past. Let's hope that history doesn't repeat itself this year.  

As far as how the weather will turn out this spring, the short answer - as always, - is "Who knows?" The folks at NOAA pretty much throw up their hands at this one. They give us in the Northeast equal chances of above or below norma temperatures this spring. They also give us equal chances of above or below normal rainfall. 

Believe it or not, there's still a lingering drought in parts of the Green Mountain State. It's not nearly as bad as it was last summer and autumn, but it's still a potential problem. Since things have been frozen all winter, the U.S. Drought Monitor maps have also been "frozen," in Vermont, with no change since mid-December.

The U.S. Drought Monitor maps still show drought in northeastern Vermont and abnormal dryness in southern areas of the state through the winter. The next Drought Monitor maps comes out tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see if anything changed now that things have begun to thaw out. 

In any event, precipitation hasn't been that impressive this winter. The first half of the season brought is near to slightly below normal precipitation.

February and so far March have been dry. It seems for the past couple months, the bigger storms have sent their heaviest precipitation west, north, south and east of us, but never quite hitting Vermont directly. It's almost as if last year's drought has a kind of "muscle memory" that causes precipitation to avoid us.

Sure, we want a lot of bright, sunny, balmy spring days. We also want a wet spring to erase the last vestiges of last years's deep drought.  

Too bad we can't put in an order for what what would really work: Rainy nights and sunny days through the spring. 

But it's Vermont. Expect anything. Sunny and 80 one day, snow the next. Vermont's weather always keeps us on our toes. Especially in the spring 

Western Snow Drought. Florida Snowier than Utah. But Is Relief Finally Coming To Rockies?

Judging from the white residue on the rock in the top
photo, Lake Powell was already very low several months
ago. Bottom photo is a recent picture. A Year Without
a Winter is creating dangerous water shortages
in much of the West 

While the East is having the kind of bitter cold and winter storms not seen in years or even decades, the West is enduring the Year Without A Winter. 

And that's getting worrisome. 

 Most of the Rocky Mountains are already in drought. This winter out west has been anything but wintry. The region has experienced springlike temperatures all season and it has barely snowed. 

Unless it snows hard and soon, the ground will dry out quickly in the spring, setting the stage for a horrific fire season.  Reservoirs and other water sources could get critically low. 

Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Idaho and Colorado have all been running at least six degrees warmer than average this winter.  

Precipitation  is also running below normal this winter through most of the Rocky Mountain region. 

Much of what little has fallen came as rain, instead of the snow that normally falls. You need that deep mountain snow cover to feed reservoirs and to keep the forests fairly moist heading into wildfire season.  Thawing has been seen at elevations of 10,000 feet this winter, a time of year when snow should be continuously piling up on the mountaintops

Salt Lake City, Utah only had a trace of snow during January.  Marianna, Florida had 1.3 inches of snow in January. Snow flurries fell as far south as Sarasota, Florida.  

It didn't rain much in Utah either. Salt Lake City had 0.42 inches of precipitation in January, compared to a normal of 1.43 inches. On Sunday, SLC  tied their record high for the date at 64 degrees.

 As the  Washington Post tell us: 

Jon Meyer, the assistant state climatologist in Utah, said that Utah is 'officially in uncharted territory' in terms of the low snowpack,

It's even weirder than you'd think in Utah. Usually there's little evaporation during the winter in Utah as the landscape is normally mostly frozen or covered in snow. Oddly warm temperatures have left bare ground, and that is driving up evaporation rates, making drought worse. 

The snow pack in Washington State was just 26 percent of normal as January closed. The state was slammed by atmospheric rivers in December But those storms were so warm that rain fell almost all the way to the summits of the Cascades and volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest. 

In Colorado, snow cover as of February 1 was the lowest on record for the date, if  you measure through federal satellite data that began in 2001. Most snow monitoring stations in Colorado with records stretching back to the 1980s are at record or near record low levels, Colorado Public Radio reports. 

The lack of precipitation this winter in the headwaters of the Colorado River is the worst in the region. The Colorado River water ends up in Lake Powell, which stores \water for millions of people. Lake Powell water is also released to generate hydropower. The reservoir is the second largest in the United States.

So yes, Lake Powell is pretty damn important, and it turns into a crisis if it empties out too much. Which it is poised to do. 

Lake Powell is only about 25 percent full, and the water supply flowing into Lake Powell will be just 38 percent of normal through July, if current projections hold. 

In California, the winter got off to a pretty good start with some heavy storms depositing inches of rain and feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains. But that moisture supply shut off in January. Statewide, snow water equivalent was only about 59 percent of normal as of January 30. The Sierra snowpack supplies about 30 percent of California's water needs.

Luckily, reservoirs in California are still full because the previous three winters were on the wet side. California is not in drought, though abnormally dry conditions crept into the extreme northwest corner of the state recently. 

The ski industry has taken a hit out west, too.  Vail in Colorado, for instance, is enduring a 20 percent drop in skier visits this winter. 

It's usually the western ski areas that are buried deep in snow while the east struggles. Usually, it's the western resorts that enjoy a few hundred inches of snow per winter. Not this year.  Mount Baker which has a national record for most snow in one season, with 1,140 inches, in Oregon, had only 280 inches of snow through the final days of January.

For perhaps the first time in memory, it's an eastern ski area that was, at least at the end of January, leading the charge. By the time January closed out, Jay Peak in northern Vermont had already collected 300 inches o snow. 

 SOME RELIEF

The persistent high pressure over the western U.S. that blocked storms from affecting the western third of the United States is breaking down, and storms are finally starting to move in. Forecasts give almost everyone in the Rocky Mountains region some precipitation over the next week.

Some areas of the Rocky Mountains are in for more than a foot of snow. The Sierra Nevada in California might see a few feet of new snow in the coming 10 days or so.

Any rain or snow will be welcome, but it's unclear how much precipitation will drop and how long the stormier pattern might last.

Still, the West needs much above average precipitation before the winter and early spring rainy season peters out. So far, at least, none of the storms in the forecast look exceptionally large .

The West might be looking at a long, hot, dangerous summer. 

 

  

 

Florida Freezes To Mess Up Your Grocery Bill

Farmers at Southern Hill Farm in Clermont,
Florida tried encasing crops in ice which
counterintuitively protects crops from harsh
freezes. Many farmers do this. But the 
cold was so intense in Florida the icing
did not work in many cases. Photo
from Southern Hill Farm via Facebook

This winter's cold is turning out to be expensive. And I'm not just talking about your heating bill. 

If you like fruits and vegetables, the price is probably going to spike soon, if it hasn't started to do so already thanks to those big Florida freezes. If you're tired of rising grocery prices, this isn't the news you want to hear. 

Some towns and cities hit all-time record lows for the month of February last weekend to kill off whatever didn't die in previous freezes this winter. 

The state was hit by a freeze back on December 30, with more freezes in mid-January before a series of frigid nights began around in the final week of January and intensified in February. 

It takes awhile for freeze damage to crops to become fully apparent. Farmers and agricultural organizations in Florida are just starting to assess the damage. So far, it's not looking good. 

CENTRAL FLORIDA

In central Florida, WFTV reports total losses at central Florida blueberry farms: 

"At H&A Farms, owner Michael Hill says his blueberry crop was wiped out because of the cold snap over the weekend. 'This whole farm is a complete loss,' They have a thousand acres of blueberry plants around the state. He cut into a blueberry to us the inside. "That's all brown. It's supposed to be green. 

Hill says they pack 40 percent of Florida's blueberries, which go to stores like Publix, Aldi and Costco. And because these berries died, Michael says he will no longer need the 2,000 workers to pick them in the fields or the hundreds needed to pack them."

The crop losses will have a ripple effect. Forklift operators, quality control specialists, shipping coordinators, boxers, stackers, packers, all those occupations in Florida blueberry industry vanished in a single night of cold weather. 

At one citrus farm in Plant City, in central Florida east of Tampa, temperatures remained below 28 degrees for more than six hours on both last Friday and Saturday nights. Even with covering trees with ice to protect the crops, damage starts when temperatures fall to 28 degrees or lower for four consecutive hours. 

At least eight to 10 percent of the current citrus crop was destroyed, making this the worst citrus freeze since at least 2010. Future citrus crops might be affected, too. 

"There will be heavy leaf loss from the frost damage and some of the young trees we've planted over the past ew months probably won't make it,' Trevor Murphy, the citrus grower in Plant City told AccuWeather. "The bloom and new flush on the trees will not make it either - we should have our main bloom toward the end of February into the first part of March. It'll be a few days until we start seeing leave and fruit drop. Coldest and longest duration of cold I've had since I've been growing oranges."

Also in Plant City, a farmer named Jonathan Allen, said his 120-acre field of sweet corn was wiped out. When farmers get desperate, they get creative. He tried building a berm and flooding the field to create a warmer microclimate, but the wind was so strong the subzero cold blasted right through the fields.  

"This freeze is the worst that I can remember, probably worse than 1989....Across the board it's devastation, complete devastation."

SOUTH FLORIDA

The more recent cold wave, on the weekend of January 31-February 1 blew all the way through South Florida and beyond. A town in Cuba reached 32 degrees, the first time on record that anyplace in Cuba reached the freezing point. 

Unlike previous cold waves, then, South Florida agriculture was trashed.  

As Axios Miami reports: 

Markon Cooperative, a North American produce supplier, wrote in market update on Wednesday that "recent freezing temperatures across Florida will  have a major impact on current crop production."

So yeah, that's really bad, since so much of our stuff comes from Florida. And I"m unsure how Trump's tariffs affect the price of food coming in from different nations, like Mexico. 

 Axios Miami says Markon Cooperatives affiliated squash growers report more than 50 percent of that crop has been lost. Bell pepper loses are at nearly 50 percent. Tomato growers say their fields have definitely suffered damage, but how much was still being assessed at the end of this week.

 One tomato grower told CBS Miami that a good 20 percent of his crop was probably lost. 

LANDSCAPES AND FIRES

Across most of Florida, plants, palms and some trees are now brown, wilted and battered. Some people, assuming climate change made them safe, planted tropical trees and plants in central Florida that don't tolerate freezes. 

These plants had managed to grow for years in warmer winters, only to be wrecked by this month's freeze. Proving the climate change is uneven. The general warming trend is punctuated by extremes, like the Arctic cold Florida has experienced lately.  

Floridians are being advised to leave their trashed landscaping alone for now. Then, when spring buds and shoots begin to appear, property owner will know what is destroyed and has to be removed or trimmed and which plants will survive.

Lastly, Florida now faces an increased fire risk. The state is often prone to wildfires in late winter and early spring, as the usual warm season thunderstorms are usually absent. And right now, almost all of Florida is experiencing a drought. 

This year, because of the freeze, the landscape isn't as green as it usually is. There's now a lot of dead vegetation that can easily make fires spread quickly.  Several fires were already burning before last weekend's freeze, and this will just make things worse.

No rain is forecast in central and southern Florida for at least the next seven days. Northern Florida is expecting only light rain at best.

At least it's starting to warm up in Florida. Another frost is expected tonight in far northern parts of the Sunshine State. But after that, for the foreseeable future, anyway, further frosts are unlikely for at least a week or two, if not more. 

California Drought-Free For First Time In Quarter Century

While large parts of the West are still in dry or 
abnormally dry (yellow, orange and red shading),
California is drought and dry-weather free
for the first time in 25 years. 

 There are no areas of drought or abnormal dryness in California for the first time in 25 years, according to U.S. Drought Monitor.    

California is a big state, as we know, so it's easy for part of the state to get arid even if other large parts of the Golden State are downright sodden. 

But now, the state is gloriously wet. 

Recent autumn and winter storms statewide have erased every last vestige of dryness from California. Not so much as a dot on the map of California show up as dry. The last time this happened was in December, 2000.

It's a huge improvement from October. Back on October 14, nearly three quarters of California was at least abnormally dry. 

Within that abnormally dry region, more than a third of California was in drought. (If an area is designated as abnormally dry, it's on the cusp of a drought, or is emerging from a drought but not quite there.).  

Since October, drought and abnormal dryness retreated in California until this week, when everything became hunky-dory in terms of water supply. 

The U,S, Drought Monitor is released every Thursday and takes into account data up to the previous Tuesday. The latest Monitor was released January 8 and the data used was used through January 6.

The Drought Monitor takes into consideration factors like precipitation, snowpack, humidity, vegetation health, stream flow, soil moisture and lake levels to determine whether a particular area is in drought or not. 

There was one other brief period in recent years when California was drought-free. That was in 2023. But during that no-drought interlude, there were a few spots that were still abnormally dry. Overall, California has enjoyed exceptional wetness in the past few years.

This is in marked contrast to a little over a decade ago. Drought was so intense in 2012-2015 that there was a lot of die-off of conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada. The effects of that die-off are still being felt today. 

I have a feeling that California might not stay drought free for long. There's even a chance that abnormally dry patches could show up with this coming Thursday's report.  Or maybe as we get into the end of this month or February. It depends on whether a break in the rain that started in the middle of last week continues through this month and beyond. 

Through January 7, San Francisco got as much rain as usually falls in the entire month, which is great. But rainless days started there on January 8 and no rain is expected in northern California until about January 26 at the earliest.

After a relatively wet December, the first week of January continued with the showers in southern California,. However, the last of the rain there shut off on January 7 and no rain is forecast there for at least two weeks. 

Serious drought won't redevelop in California unless the entire rest of the winter remains dry. After about April, rainfall normally largely shuts down in most of California until late autumn or early winter.