As El Nino Builds, July Tied For World's Hottest On Record, August Running Super Hot, Too

The world tied the record for the hottest July, according
to NOAA. If anything, August might be even 
further above normal as El Nino takes hold

As I noted in a previous post, El Nino is building on climate change to bring the world's temperatures to new heights. 

While we're heading into the last days of August, we see the July data is fully available. 

Data released about a week ago indicated July, 2026 tied with 2024 as the hottest on record. This is according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.  Since July is normally the world's hottest month of the year, so 2026 and 2024 are the world's hottest month on record. 

The Julys of 2023, 2024 and 2026 were the only Julys that were 1 degree or more Celsius above the pre-industrial average. 

Climate change has been going on for quiet awhile now, it's just accelerating lately.  For instance, the last time the world had a July that was at least a little bit cooler than average was in 1971.  

Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere were easily the hottest on record, breaking the previous 2024 record by 0.12 degrees Celsius, or 0.22 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Hot Oceans

Even more ominously, global ocean temperatures reached a record high for July. About 70 percent of the world is covered by oceans. Heat is released into the atmosphere, where it causes mischief in the form of record heat, droughts, and unusually vicious storms.

Overall, on average, world ocean temperatures peak in the spring, then declines until June, then rise to a secondary peak in early August, then slowly begins to decline again, 

This year, the global average ocean temperature rose rapidly since July, reaching an all time record of 21.1 degrees C as of August 21.  This odd late season increase has almost everything to do with the burgeoning El Nino. But since ocean temperatures were already elevated by climate change, it was easy for the oceans breaking records. 

Relative to average, the warmest places were most of North America, Greenland and Iceland, western Europe, Central Africa, northwest Asia, parts of Russia and Siberia. 

As usual in this climate-changed world, there were few areas that were on the cold side, and most of the "cold" areas were just barely, compared to the 20th century averages. The cool areas were Alaska, the persistent cold blob in the Atlantic south of Iceland, parts of Antarctica, and, marginally, parts of northern and central Europe. 

UNITED STATES

The Lower 48 of the United States had its 
hottest month on record in July. All states
were warmer than average.

In the United States, we had the hottest month on record in the Lower 48. Not just hottest July, ,though the month is usually the hottest of the year.   

Every state in the Lower 48 was warmer than normal, which is an extreme rarity. Even when the Lower 48 has an overall warm month, a few states are at least a little cooler than normal. 

While everyplace was warm, the hottest relative to average were in the central and northern Rockies and in the northern Plains. 

When you add up all the states that were way warmer than normal and sort of warmer than normal, we end up with the hottest month on record for the Lower 48. 

Wyoming had its hottest July on record. Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and North Dakota had their second hottest July on record. A total of 18 states had one of their top ten warmest Julys on record. Vermont had its 31st hottest July on record. 

Overall, the Lower 48 was drier than normal. Typical of summer the wet areas and dry areas were pretest spotty and random. 

Despite the dry theme, there were intense local floods, including in the Texas Hill Country and in the Northeast. 

New England had some of the most extreme disparities in precipitation. Southern New England was wet, with Rhode Island seeing its sixth wettest July on record. By contrast, Maine had its fourth driest July on record. 

Vermont had its 47 driest July out of the past 132 years. 

Meanwhile, August around the world has been running super hot. It's widely expected to be the hottest on record. We'll have updates, of course, when complete data for August becomes available.  

June Was World's Second Warmest As EL Nino Continues To Build

The world had its second warmest June on record this
year. With an El Nino looming, things could get
even hotter later this year. 

Continuing a trend started earlier this year, June ended up as the second warmest on record for the world, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

The world is just entering a strong El Nino, which is expected to supercharge climate warming. That could start another spate of record hottest months. 

April was the world's fourth warmest. March and May were second warmest. Now, June came in at second warmest. Will coming months be the warmest on record? There's a good chance that will happen.  

In any event, we don't need El Nino to bake the planet. It's been super toasty for the past decade, thanks to climate change. 

The ten warmest Junes have all hit since 2015. If you are under the age of 50, you've never seen a June in which the world's June temperatures were below the 20th century average. 

This June, as you'd expect, there were plenty of spots in the world that were especially warm. Those included northern Canada, western Europe, eastern Australia, much of Siberia, south central Asia. The eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean is especially hot, showing how El Nino has already strongly taken over. 

In western Europe, eight nations had their hottest temperatures on record. Not the June records. The all-time records. 

There's always a couple of pockets of cool weather, despite the overall global warmth.  For some reason, most of Antarctica was on the chilly side. We also saw a small pocket of cold air in north central Asia. It was also sort of nippy in northwest Alaska and in Montana, kind of. It was the 41st coldest June there, so not exactly frigid. 

Also, the cold blob that's been hanging around for years in the Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland and Iceland was still there. That's actually another sign of how climate change is messing with the world's weather and ocean systems. 

That Atlantic cold blob stems from extra fresh water entering the ocean from the melting Greenland ice cap. That's slowing the ocean currents that bring warmth to western Europe. 

The end of June brought us to the halfway point of the year. So far, this year is the third hottest out of the past 177 years of record. Only the first halves of 2024 and 2025 were hotter.  

NCEI says that there's a 95 percent chance that 2026 will rank among there four warmest years on record. But as Jeff Masters wrote in Yale Climate Connections, NCEI's data is designed to explicitly exclude El Nino or La Nina from that prediction. 

With El Nino now well into the picture, those almost solid 95 percent odds are even higher. 

UNITED STATES

For the continental United States, June was the 18th warmest on record. That's out of the past 133 years. 

The warmest areas, relative to average were in the Southwest and right along the Northeast coast.As noted above, Montana was the coolest, relative to average, as it was the 41st coolest out of the last 133 years in Big Sky country. 

A broad area from the northern and central Plains, the Ohio Valley and parts of the southeast were somewhere in the middle, not much above or below the long term average.

Here in Vermont, we had our 16th warmest June, according to NCEI

June was the 33rd wettest out of the past 133 years in the Lower 48. The wettest areas were in parts of the Midwest. Illinois had its sixth wettest June. Kansas saw their ninth wettest June. Other relatively wet areas were in the central and western Gulf Coast states and in northern New England. 

Vermont had its 22nd wettest June on record.   

Dry-Ish Week Continues In Vermont. Past Two Months Have Been Mostly Wet, Giving Us A Drought Cushion

Rain falls from thunderstorm clouds over Lake Champlain
as the sun shines through the rain, Photo looking west
from St. Albans, Vermont on July 10, 2025

The first part of summer in Vermont was wet, but that seems to be sputtering, at least for now. 

The last rains in the Green Mountain State were some scattered showers and thunderstorms central and south on July 4. Northwest Vermont has been dry for several days now. 

The storm that's soaking and/or will soak the Mid-Atlantic states and far southern New England won't really be a factor in Vermont. 

Forecast rainfall far south is now only expected to be a quarter inch at best. Not the half inch to an inch we previously thought might happen. That southern Vermont rain, however light, should come through later today through tomorrow morning. 

There's still a chance the storm could jog north, but don't bet the farm on that. 

Except for scattered sprinkles this afternoon, no rain is forecast after this southern Vermont episode until later Thursday and Friday when a weak cold front is expected to approach and then pass through. 

Although we could end up with some locally heavy downpours with that front, in general, rainfall isn't looking that impressive with that front, at least for now.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington
released this map today showing most of 
Vermont has had above normal rainfall over 
the last two months. Yellow area are at
least two inches above normal. Orange areas
are at least four inches on the plus side 

I'm not really worried about drought. I won't be unless weeks go by without much rain. 

These dry spells happen almost every July. And the dry weather will reduce moisture in the ground somewhat. That drying would slightly lessen the risk of flash flooding if torrential rains hit later this summer. 

But this week's dry spell hits as the last vestiges of last summer's dryness finally dissipates in Vermont. 

 The latest U.S. Drought Report, issued last Thursday, had only the tiniest stripe of Vermont encompassing just 1 percent of the state right along the Massachusetts border as "abnormally dry."  

That's the best we've been since at least the late spring of 2025.

Abnormally dry means it's sort of close to drought, but not really there. But overall, Vermont is super lucky. Judging from the latest Drought Monitor map, the only states doing as well with moisture as Vermont are Ohio, Indiana and maybe Michigan.

Rainfall for all of Vermont except parts of the far south has been above normal for the past two months. Some areas north are two inches on the plus side. This all erased lingering drought in eastern Vermont. 

Drought, or at least the maldistribution of rainfall,  has really been a thing in the United States this year. And the shifts in particular areas between flooding and drought and flooding again have been wild. 

Parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland were in pretty steep droughts prior to the deluges causing flash floods there this week, if you want an example

A huge El Nino is developing, which will really keep the weather whacky here in Vermont and in the rest of the world through the next year or so. Even wackier than the climate-changed weather weirdness we've already experienced in recent years.

In general, strong El Ninos cause very warm and dry late summers and autumns here in Vermont, though there's no guarantee that will happen, There's always exceptions. But for now, we can just hope for the increasingly rare type of Goldilocks summer in the Green Mountain State, not too dry, not too wet, not too hot, not too cold. 

The rest of this week will be sort of an imperfect Goldilocks type of period, so I guess we should all enjoy that. 

Q and A: Everything You Need To Know About This Big Heat Wave

AccuWeather released this map of the expected
maximum heat index temperature in the coming
days. 

Well, it's on. The Big American Heat Wave of 2026 is on in the Midwest and East. Maybe it will be one of several big ones this summer, maybe not. There's already been a bunch of hot weather elsewhere in the U.S. off and on. 

This one is getting a lot of attention across the nation, including here in Vermont. Following are answers to some FAQs about this heat wave. 

We get hot spells every summer. What makes this one so special?

True, there's big hot spells every year. But they are tending to generally get worse over the years as climate change continues. This particular one is getting extra attention because it's affecting so many people. At least 250 million people are under heat warnings or advisories at last check, according to AccuWeather. 

The heat is hitting the major media center in the East, so that captures the attention of news directors much more readily than something that might happen in the Plains or Rocky Mountains. It's also hitting during the Fourth of July weekend, when more people will be out and about, celebrating the holiday. 

Will this be the nation's worst heat wave ever, like the one recently in Europ?.

No, but it will be pretty bad. The European heat wave shattered all-time record highs in numerous cities and several countries in western and central Europe. 

This one in America will set records, but probably few if any all time records. Still, the forecasting heat is impressive. Dozens of daily record highs are threatened from Maine and Vermont south to North Carolina and west to Illinois. New York City is expecting its first 100 degree day in a decade. Highs in the 100s will extend fron New England to the Carolinas and through large swaths of the Midwest,

Many cities including some here in Vermont, might also have record high low temperatures, meaning those without air conditioning get little relief from the heat. 

Fourth Of July and the heat. Tell me why people are worried about that

Many people are out of their air conditioned homes and offices enjoying the holiday celebrations. They're out in the hot sun, not drinking enough liquids, drinking alcohol, generally not paying attention to their bodies. It's a recipe for heat stroke or heat related injuries. Also, when you're overheated, you aren't paying attention as much as you should, leading to the risk of injuries. With fireworks involved, this could mean some missing fingers or worse

OK, But I'm up here in Vermont, shouldn't we be immune from this kind of heat?

Often, we are. We're right next to Canada, after all, so it's easy for cold fronts to sweep in and keep the extreme heat and humidity in Florida and Louisiana, where it belongs. 

This time, the heat dome setting up in the East is sending Florida air all the way to Vermont. The air in terms of temperature will be as bad or worse than in Miami for at least a couple days.  The heat might taper off a bit toward the weekend and early next week, but not entirely go away. 

 OK, but how do I get used to this particular heat wave?

If you have air conditioning, use it, especially at night, despite the expense. A long heat wave lasting a few to several days can wear you out, leading to heat illnesses and other ailments. If you must work or exercise outdoors, do it at the crack of dawn when it is relatively cooler, compared to the rest of the day. 

Keep your fluid intake going all day.  Drink plenty of water, but not just water. Consume energy drinks, juices, watermelon, cucumbers, anything, "wet"  Have a nice "cold supper" instead of cooking and heating up the house. You know, cold meats, cheeses, vegetables, that sort of thing.  Try to avoid consuming alcohol, it ultimately makes the heat worse, even if it makes you forget about it a little.

What About my family?

Keep a close eye on the kids, so they don't get too hot. If you take the swimming anywhere, keep an eye on them constantly, even if there's lifeguards. Don't scroll on the phone to watch the latest makeover TikTok, please.  

In the car, run the air conditioning. When you stop to get out, even if the kids aren't with you, look in the back seat. That will get you in a habit to always look and get the kids out so they don't roast in the car. Every year we hear tragic stories of kids dying in hot cars. Don't let this be your kid.

Have the kids run around early the morning if they're up. Or later at night. Especially if your house does not have air conditioning, treat the kiddos to an air conditioned movie, museum or other such attraction. They'll love it and it will help their bodies recover from the heat. 

Should I worry about my dog during this heat wave?

Absolutely! Keep them in a cool place as much as you can. If you have air conditioning, encourage them little Roscoe to hang out there. They'll still need to go on walks to do their business and to sniff around. (That sniffing is very important for the health of a dog). Do the walks early in the evening before it gets hot. 

Don't let your dog walk on asphalt, concrete or other hard surface during the day. Those surfaces get wicked hot and can burn paws. 

What about Old Lady McCormick Next Door?

Check on her. A lot. Especially if she has no air conditioning, Heat can really take a toll on the elderly. In those big heat waves in Europe, most of the thousands of people who were killed were elderly. A heat wave similar to the upcoming one killed six elderly or disabled Vermonters. 

This is a stereotype, but I notice a lot of older Vermonters prize their independence and stubbornly refuse help. So lie to them. "I made way too much of this nice cold macaroni salad. I'd hate to see it go to waste."  Or, "I bought this nonrefundable ticket to the movies for tonight, but now my niece can't go. Why don't you go with us so we can use this ticket."

Just be extra nice to the elderly

Man, that neighbor of ours just mowed his lawn in this heat, and he looks awful! Should we do anything about it?

Yes, yes and double yes.

If he's headachy, nauseous, dizzy,  fatigued, weak, more irritable than usual, thirsty with heavy sweating, and his muscles are cramping up, he's probably got heat exhaustion. (Another symptom of heat exhaustion is decreased urine output, but you might not know that. 

Get him indoors to a cool place and encourage him to drink cool liquids (but not the glass of chardonnay you forgot to put down when you noticed Mr. Golf Course Lawn stumbling out there.  Take off his shoes and socks, even if they smell awful, and put cool, wet towels around his neck or elsewhere on his body. 

He also needs to go to the ER or Urgent Care to get checked out if symptoms don't improve within an hour. 

If your mowing buddy is confused, agitated, has slurred speech, nausea and vomiting, flushed skin, rapid breathing and a racing heart, chances are he's got heat stroke. This is a hair on fire emergency. Call 911 now if not sooner. 

Did climate change cause this?

Not really, but climber change probably made it worse than it otherwise would have been. There have always been heat waves and heat domes during the summer. What might have been a couple days near 90 degrees several decades ago has become a horrible excursion into the mid and upper 90s with near record high humidity levels. 

As I noted above, get used to it. Heat waves like this used to be really rare events. Now they're starting to get more common, so we'll be writing this Q and A a lot more in the future. 

Well, this all just sucks. When will it end?

It'll start to get better toward Saturday and Sunday, but "improvement" might be too optimistic a word. Temperatures toward Sunday and early next week will be in the 80s to maybe near 90, but not way up in the 90s. Humidity will still be high, but not as bad as it will be Wednesday to Friday. But still annoying.

As far as a big whoosh of cool, clear Canadian air, I don't see that happening anytime soon

 

April Wildfires Rage In U.S. There's Even A FIre Threat Here In Vermont

Screen grab of a report from WPTZ of a brush fire that
got out of control in Shelburne Wednesday. Much
of the state has a high fire danger today. Elsewhere
in the U.S. much, much worse wildfires have been raging

It's been a terrible wildfire year already in the U.S. and it continued to get worse on Wednesday. 

Fires raged in Georgia, Florida and other states. It's a continuation of a fiery spring in the United States. 

So far this year, through April 17, the nation has seen 20,915 wildfires, the most in recent history and far above the average of 13,597 through that date, the National Interagency Fire Center reported. 

As of April 17, 1,748,490 acres have burned, far above the average of  875,957 through mid-April.  With drought raging in much of the nation, the fires will only get worse as we head into the summer. 

The last few days have made things even worse.

In drought-stricken southern Georgia, at least 50 homes were destroyed by wildfires.  Hundreds of people have been evacuated. Much of Georgia is under mandatory burn bans for the first time in the state's history. The fires are mostly in southern Georgia and northern Florida, where an intense drought is worsening. 

In northern Floria, firefighters battled more than 130 wildfires that burned 39 square miles, NBC News reported. 

Further north, a smoky haze engulfed Atlanta.

In Colorado, a fast moving fire southeast of Colorado Springs prompted evacuation. 

Today, fire alerts run from New Mexico and northwest Texas all the way to eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota.

VERMONT FIRES

Here in Vermont, things are not nearly as dire as they are in Florida, Georgia, Colorado and other places beset with big wildfires.

But April and early May represent peak wildfires season here in the Green Mountain State. Mostly because said Green Mountain State is not that green yet. Last year's dead brush and leaves, exposed to the sun through leafless trees, dry out in a flash. Even a day or two after rain or snow. 

We've already a few dry episodes with fires this spring. This year through yesterday, 28 Vermont fires have burned 143.6 acres, according to data from the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation. 

 Just yesterday in Shelburne, WPTZ reports that somebody called the town's fire department for a burn permit after already setting the field alight. The fire department turned down the request. 

Meanwhile the fire got out of control as winds gusted to as high as 25 to 30 mph. Firefighters from three departments got the fire contained after it burned about a half acre. No word from the report as to whether the property owner was cited. 

Officials are warning of potential fires today, especially in lower valleys. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has issued a special weather statement warning of fire danger in the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys and the valleys of southwest Vermont. 

Very dry air and gusty winds could really spread fires today. Now is not the time to burn your brush pile, or flick a cigarette out your truck window. 

Dry weather will continue through the weekend, which keeps the fire danger going. But winds starting tomorrow will be lighter than the 25 to 30 mph gusts we'll see today. 

GREAT WEATHER!

A daffodil enjoying some early morning sunshine
today in St. Albans, Vermont. We have great
spring weather coming for the next few days
but there is a high fire danger, especially today.

Aside from the fire danger, we have just launched into a spell of great spring weather. Skies should have at least a fair amount of sun daily through Sunday or Monday. April showers bring May flowers, but so does April sunshine. 

Cool weather, especially today and tomorrow will be invigorating for those of you who want to go out and get yard work done. 

Highs today and tomorrow should mostly be in the low and mid 50s

We will have freezes tonight and tomorrow night as readings  fall to between 25 and 30 degrees both nights. This won't be cold enough to endanger spring plants like the sharper, colder spell we had Monday and Tuesday morning. 

At least around my area in northwest Vermont, most of my spring plants survived Tuesday morning's frigid temperatures. They'll do fine this time, too. 

But if you are hardening off more tender plants on your deck or whatever, bring them in tonight, tomorrow night and maybe the night after that, too. 

The weekend will turn a little warmer, with highs near 60, which is about normal for this time of year. It looks like skies will be partly to mostly sunny, so we have a fantastic weekend coming up, fingers crossed. 

The Vermont Maple Festival is this weekend in St. Albans, so it'll be a perfect weekend for that, too! 

Deep Snow, Unseasonable Freezes, Record Heat, Tornado Busts: March Weather Madness Reigns

A scene from the blizzard in northern
Michigan, via Facebook, Michigan
Storm Chasers

 The big storm that was harassing the United States is mostly gone, but its left damage, weird weather and the risk for more problems in its wake. 

BLIZZARD

The blizzard lived up to its promise, as forecasts for somewhere in the neighborhood of three feet of snow verified in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and in Wisconsin. Harbor Springs, Wisconsin was buried beneath 40 inches of new snow. Cheboygan, Wisconsin saw 38 inches of snow, while Wausau picked up 30.9 inches. 

This all got whipped up into massive drifts as strong winds blew throughout the storm. 

Marquette Michigan picked up 36.3 inches of snow new snow. That makes this month's total there so far 54.4 inches. I think I'd kill myself instead of shoveling my driveway with that amount of snow!

Before the storm was even finished yesterday morning there was 47 inches of snow on the ground. They haven't had less than two feet of snow on the ground since January 4. Talk about never-ending winters!

Video showed vehicles stuck for miles in the snow on an Interstate highway near Green Bay, Wisconsin fPeople in those cars said they'd been stuck for five hours or more. Green Bay had its deepest single-day snowfall since at least 1889, with 17.1 inches on Sunday. The city's storm total came to 26.6 inches.

In Illinois, snow wasn't nearly as deep, but strong winds sent tractor trailers on icy Interstates spiraling into ditches. 

SEVERE WEATHER

The good news is that there were no major tornadoes anywhere on the East Coast yesterday. Ahead of the storm, the atmosphere seemed primed for strong tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic states.

Thankfully, that isn't what happened.

Some thunderstorms formed early in the day near the North Carolina coast. That siphoned some of the heat and moisture needed to produce rotating supercells and tornadoes. There were a couple of tornado warnings in Maryland, but none touched down. A couple of weak tornadoes were reported in North Carolina. 

We did see 485 reports of wind damage, mostly involving fallen trees and power lines. And even better news: No severe thunderstorms or tornadoes are forecast anywhere in the U.S. during the next week. 

WILDFIRE

A final capture before a trail camera was destroyed in
the big Nebraska fires. The camera owner was able to
recover an SD card from the melted camera.

Strong winds to the south and west of the massive storm that blasted the Great Lakes region helped fan the largest wildfire in Nebraska history. 

Collectively, four fires in central and western Nebraska have burned around 750,000 acres. As of yesterday, there was 0% containment, though updates this morning indicated the fires were now partially contained. One person has died in the fires.

One of the four fires, the Morrill Fire, is the largest in the state's history. At last report, it had burned through nearly 573,000 acres. An update this morning indicated it was 18% contained. 

Most of Nebraska is in drought. Dry, windy weather. A red flag warning is up for Nebraska today, and a fire weather watch is in effect tomorrow, when it is expected to turn windier and even drier. 

Brush fires and wildfires have afflicted the Plains through the second half of winter and now into March. The region has been persistently dry and frequent wind storms have fanned the flames.  

FROSTY SOUTH 

Early season crops and gardens across the South are taking a serious beating from frost and freezing temperatures. The huge storm's strong north winds and an accompanying strong dip in the jet stream brought wintry air far south. 

Last week brought record breaking high temperatures to the South, and that really got plants going after a chilly winter with plenty of freezes. This morning's subfreezing temperatures were surely a big setback. 

Huntsville, Alabama went from 71 degrees just after midnight yesterday to a burst of snow just 10 hours later.

By this morning, several places in East Texas and Louisiana saw record lows . In Shreveport, it was 25 degrees, besting the old record of 27 degrees. Longview, Texas reached 27 degrees, breaking the record low by a degree. 

Birmingham, Alabama got down to at least 27 degrees, which breaks the record low for the date of 28 degrees.

Freeze warnings are up again for tonight from eastern Arkansas all the way to the Carolina coast. 

WESTERN HEAT BUILDS

As noted in a previous post, the Southwest is entering an unprecedented stretch of extremely weird March heat. 

Each day from tomorrow through Sunday in Phoenix will feature high temperatures between 102 and 107. Those highs each day will be at least seven degrees above the current record highs, which is absolutely bonkers. 

Highly unseasonable extreme heat warnings are going into effect in the Desert Southwest. This heat wave is more dangerous than most because people aren't climatized to the heat yet. Plus, the deserts are overrun with tourists who are there to enjoy what is normally a cooler time in the deserts. Plus, extra tourists were attracted to a super bloom of flowers in Death Valley and the Mohave Desert. 

Despite all these weirdnesses around the nation, the odd weather is settling down for now, with the glaring exception of the Southwestern heatwave.

i'm sure the atmosphere is just recharging for more fun and scary and gobsmacking weather times ahead.  

One Widespread, Ominous U.S. Heat Wave Fades, Another, Much Hotter One Threatens West

The western U.S. is gearing up for what is expected to
be never-before-seen March heat over the next
week to 10 days. This will exacerbate drought and
water shortages in the region. After record heat
in the East, it will cool down some. 

Temperatures are cooling down today in the Midwest and East after a remarkable March heat wave that set hundreds of new record highs from the Plains States all the way to the East Coast. 

Now, meteorologists are already talking about another heat wave set to begin in the western U.S. That heat wave might well be easily one of the most extreme out-of-season heat waves ever seen. 

More on that in a minute. 

Climate change has turned the normal "false springs" of thawing weather and warm early season sunshine into something a little worrying. . 

Already this year. much of the western United States had by far their warmest winter on record. Even in the colder eastern U.S., brief warm spells set records. 

Now, we had the heat this week. Hundreds of cities saw record highs broken, over roughly half the United States. The record heat extended over a remarkably large area, from Oklahoma and Texas, through the South and Midwest and along the entire East Coast. 

Temperatures reached to near 90 in the Southeast, with one report as far north as Virginia 

Several places broke records for warmest for so early in the season.  Those include New York City (80 degrees), Georgetown, Delaware, (83 degrees), Baltimore, Maryland (85 degrees) and Burlington, Vermont (73). 

Some records were broken by wide margins. Up in Millinocket, Maine, it got to 70 degrees, beating the old record high for the date of 54 degrees. 

The unseasonable warmth set the conditions for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms in the Midwest. Abrupt thawing in northern New York and in Vermont created ice jams on rivers which caused some flooding. 

The expansive heat wave of the past week has ensured this was the warmest start to March on record for the U.S. 

A shift in the weather pattern is now bringing cooler air into the eastern half of the U.S., but is setting the stage for a dangerous, way-before-its-time heat wave out west.

WESTERN HEAT 

The expected heat wave in the West will be even stronger and more dangerous than the one now ending in the East

Per the Washington Post:

"There are many potential firsts for March on the horizon: It could reach 100 degrees in Los Angeles next week, after record-breaking 95 degree heat on Thursday and Friday. 

In Phoenix next week, temperatures could exceed 100 degrees several times. It could also reach the century mark in Las Vegas."

Phoenix could actually reach 105 degrees next week, which looks plausible given the expected intensity of the heat dome. If that happens, not only would Phoenix break its record for hottest day in March, it would tie April's  hottest recorded temperatures. 

 Record highs for the entire month of March could fall in Salt Lake City, Denver, Reno and other western cities. It's fairly rare to break a monthly record. It's especially rare to set one in mid-March, as temperatures are obviously normally warmer at the end of the month. 

This is insane. 

The impending heat wave is raising alarms about drought and water shortages this summer. Much of the region is already in drought. The snowpack in the mountains is paltry, as what little snow that fell often melted.

Now this heat wave will melt snow at very high elevations, the way heat waves do in June.  That would leave little runoff to keep rivers running and reservoirs with at least some water for the summer. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if this heat episode contributes to serious water shortages this summer.

Utah State Climatologist Jon Meyer said the state's snowpack is at record low levels and Utah's reservoirs are only at about 40 percent capacity.  "All this means we are likely to see some very tangible water supply cuts and conservation efforts by the state this year," Meyer told the Washington Post. 

The early heat waves make me worried about summertime. We've had our share of record heat during the summer in our climate change regime. Some of it has been unprecedented heat in recent years.

Will this be the summer when things really get out of control?

 

Wild Weather Videos: Wildfires In Plains, Incredible Sierra Nevada Snows

A huge wildfire in Oklahoma earlier this month. It was
one of many extreme weather events so far this month. 

Before this week's big blizzard hit the Northeast, other dramatic weather hit the U.S. raged. We had Plains wildfires, and incredible snows in the Sierra Nevadas. 

Everybody has cameras these days, so we have video of all these goings on. We have some examples here. I'll have Blizzard of '26 videos in a separate post. 

Here's a video of a wildfire blowing into Woodword, Oklahoma on February 17. It gets pretty dramatic with fires whirls toward the end. As always click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that

To say it snowed in California's Sierra Nevada mountains last week is definitely an understatement. To give us an idea of how it looks, Live Storms Media provided us with the scenery in Soda Springs, California. Looks like a good three feet of snow fell there within the first day and a half of the storm, as you can see in the video. I believe they eventually had about eight feet of snow. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

I have no idea why anyone would drive their Prius over California's infamous Donner Pass in a blizzard ,but here we are. Next video is people struggling in their vehicles amid heavy snow, shortly before authorities finally had the sense to shut down the heavily traveled highway. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

It isn't just the United States. Dramatic video shows an avalanche hitting a train in the Swiss Alps.  Nobody was injured in this one, and rescue services got everybody off the train within two hours. An avalanche his another train in Switzerland, derailing it and injuring five people. 

Here's the video of the train getting hit, along with some updates on other avalanches in the region. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 Next, a cool aerial view of the ice in Pennsylvania's. Susquehanna River beginning to break up and jam in thawing weather recently. Rivers in the state had been heavily iced over by intense early February cold. The thawing lately has contributed to ice jams. Click on this link to view, or as usual if you see the image below click there. 

World Had Fifth Warmest January Despite Arctic Block That Kept Parts Of Europe, U.S.

January was the worlds fifth warmest on record 
Blocking high pressure in the Arctic kept that
region exceptionally warm, while parts of 
Europe and North America were 
a little cool as a result of that blocking

It might have seemed cold locally, but the world had its fifth warmest January on record, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

"This marks the 50th consecutive January (since 1977) with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th -century average. The 10 warmest Januarys on record have occurred since 2007, with the most recent five years (2022-26),"  NCEI noted in its monthly report.    

When you look at the data and maps from this monthly report, you can really see in this report how a persistent blocking pattern messed with temperatures in the northern hemisphere. 

High pressure over the Arctic and Greenland made that area super warm compared to average. That was especially true in northern and western Greenland and northeastern Canada.

Meanwhile, this pattern squashed the frigid air in the Arctic southward. That's why the eastern United States, northern and central Europe and most of the western two thirds of Russia were on the cool side.  

The cold air was also forced to spread out over a larger land area by this pattern, helping keep the world's January as a whole cooler than it otherwise would have been overall. Also, the effects of La Nina, which tends to cool the world, would be peaking roughly about now. 

No areas came close to the coldest on record. 

Fifth hottest is still impressively warm. Given the factors above, January shouldn't have been that warm. Climate change is still ruling the roost. As we previously reported, an El Nino is brewing for later this year, and that could bring the world's temperature to new and dangerous heights late this year or in 20247. 

In January, 2026, besides the Arctic, other areas that were much warmer than normal were Africa, which had its warmest January on record. Other hot areas include central Asia, southern Australia, much of western Canada, the western United States and the Atlantic Ocean between the Caribbean and Africa. 

UNITED STATES

The data confirms it: We had a remarkable west-east divide during January. 

Data confirms the Lower 48 had a warm west and a 
cold east Note that western temperatures were
near record highs, while eastern temperatures
were generally just somewhat cooler than average.

The East had a real winter, while the West was having a year without a winter in January. As NCEI tells us: 

"Temperatures were much above average across a large portion of the western third of the (United States). Oregon, California, Utah and Arizona each had one of the six warmest starts of the year. Along with Washington, Nevada and New Mexico, they each recorded their warmest December-January period on record."

Thought the East was cold, the chill didn't come close to breaking records for the month. Ohio came the closest, ending the month as 31st coldest out of the past 132 years. Pennsylvania was 32nd coldest .

For the record, we in Vermont had our 75th coldest January, or 57th warmest January, depending on how you want to look at it. 

Mix it all together and the United States ended up having its 19th warmest January. 

Precipitation was scant, despite a wide-ranging winter storm toward the end of the month. January ended up as the eleventh driest on record for the Lower 48. The Northwest and northern Rockies were particularly dry. Oregon and Montana had their fifth driest Januaries on record. 

Only four states - Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico and Wisconsin were noticeably wetter than average and even those states did not come anywhere close to record wet.

Here in Vermont, we had our 48th driest January out of the past 132 years.  

January had a few other impressive weather events that I missed as they unfold.

On January 8 and 9 rare winter flash flooding occurred in parts of Wisconsin and Illinois amid a burst of record warmth that brought temperatures in the low 60s, and heavy rain. Up to three inches of rain fell near Chicago.  Chicago had as much rain in one day as they normally have in the entire month of January. 

Alaska had rough January. We already reported on the epic, record snows around Juneau in December and early January, which were followed by flooding. But two of Alaska's other larger cities had their own issues. 

The temperature in Fairbanks never got above zero for 32 consecutive days ending on January 14. That's the longest stretch of continuous subzero cold in more than 100 years.  Down in Anchorage, January snowfall set a record with 40.2 inches of snow.

On the warm side of things, St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands had their warmest January on record with an average temperature of 81.6 degrees.

 

Dramatic, Deadly Weather Has Returned To Much Of U.S. Blizzards, Wildfires And More

Wildfire entering neighborhoods in
Woodward, Oklahoma on Tuesday.
Wildfires and dust storms have
plagued the central and southern 
Plains since yesterday. 

We're entering the season in which storms and wind combine to create an enormous smorgasbord of dangerous weather. 

And that wild weather season is off with a big bang with a variety of scary weather going on around the nation. 

That weather action beganwith extreme wildfires in the central and southern Plains, dust storms, and drought-denting snow in the Rockies, feet of snow in the Sierra and a West Coast that has abruptly turned soggy after a month and half of uncharacteristic wintertime dry and warm weather

The new weather pattern is at least easing the harshest winter weather the eastern United States has seen in years or even decades. But the cost of this is dangerous storms that will eventually extend nearly  coast to coast.  

 WILDFIRES/DUST STORMS

 Wildfires raced through parts of northern Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas on Tuesday. One of the fires forced nearly 4,000 people to evacuate their Woodward, Oklahoma. Four firefighters have been injured so far. 

The Woodward County fire demolished three structures, including two a U.S. Department of Agriculture facility. 

One fire started in the Oklahoma panhandle and spread into Kansas, consuming 155,000 acres.  Video showed large fire whirls moving rapidly across the dry landscape and thick towers of smoke looming overhead. 

The storminess out west has helped produce strong, dry southwest and westerly winds across the Great Plains, which are already in drought. 

The winds died down slightly today, but not all that much, The fire threat hasn't gone away. A broad zone from eastern New Mexico to South Dakota and on to Iowa and Illinois are under a fire risk today.  To give you a sense of how chaotic the weather is in the Plains, southern South Dakota is under a fire alert today, while the northern part of the state, less than 100 miles away, is under a blizzard warning 

Wildfires are raging in Florida, too. A combination of drought, sunny, breezy weather and freezes earlier this month have turned the state into a powder keg. One fire in Vero Beach, Florida started from an illegal burn and threatened several homes.

Back in the Great Plains, dust storms also raged on Tuesday, especially in Texas, eastern Colorado and western Kansas and Nebraska.

 A dust storm on Tuesday along Interstate 25 near Pueblo, Colorado cut visibility and caused a 30-vehicle pileup. The crash killed four people and injured 29 others. 

Winds gusted to 68 mph in Amarillo, Texas and the relative humidity dropped to 13 percent. 

WESTERN STORMS

The storms shut down in California around the first of January, and pretty much no precipitation fell until this week. 

These new storms are easing fears that the lack of rain and snow might allow drought to start creeping back into California. 

The Sierra Nevada mountains are part way through a series of dumps that will leave several feet of new snow behind.  Some areas of the Sierra Nevada area had three feet of snow within 24 hours.Blizzards shut down all highways crossing the Sierra Nevada mountains, including heavily traveled Interstate 80. 

Nine back country skiers are missing and six were rescued following an avalanche near Lake Tahoe. 

 Video from Soda Springs, California, showed near zero visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow, The snow looked like it was accumulating very fast. Fox Weather had a chaotic report from the Heavenly Ski Resort in the Sierra amid almost zero visibility and a mess of stuck vehicles. 

There's an excellent YouTube channel called Tahoe Mountain Life that gives you just what the title says. Today's video on that channel gives you a great idea how things are like in this mountain blizzard. 

The UC Berkeley Snow Lab in the Sierra Nevada reported 29.3 inches of new snow in 24 hours and 57.5 inches within two days. Another two to three feet of snow is expected there by Friday. 

The snow level has dropped to 2,000 above sea level, which is quite a bit lower than it usually is. That
means more roads are either closed or dangerous for inexperienced winter drivers. 

A couple more feet of snow might fall up there by Thursday night.  It should stop snowing temporarily Friday, but more mountain snows should arrive Saturday and continue into the middle of next week. 

The heavy snow has been pushing eastward along the Canadian border through North Dakota, northern Minnesota and northern Michigan. Heavy snow with thunder and lightning over Duluth, Minnesota. 

SEVERE WEATHER

As if all this wasn't enough, a flash of severe weather is likely tomorrow in Indiana and parts of Illinois, Ohio and Kentucky.  There could even be a tornado or two. That's pretty far north to have a tornado this time of year. 

 

Greenhouse Gas Emissions In The United States Increased In 2025, Dropped In China,

It looks like this guy will ensure coal and oil use 
continue to spew more and more greenhouse gas
emissions into the atmosphere, but at least it looks
like China and India are trying 
to reign in fossil fuel use. 

 Greenhouse gas emissions in the United States went up by 2.4% in 2025, reversing two previous years of decreases, according to a BBC report.  

Part of the reason for the increase was just bad weather luck. January, 2025 was colder than most other recent winters. Homes burned more gas for heating than usual, while coal use rose by 13% to meet rising electricity demands. 

Data centers driven by soaring use of AI, and a raging cryptocurrency fad or industry (depending upon how how you look at it) were a big driver of the greenhouse gas emissions. 

We rightly blame Donald Trump for a bunch of new or looming environmental ills because of his militantly pro oil and coal stance. 

However the damage from Trump was probably minimal in 2025.  It'll almost surely increase starting this year. 

At least China and India seem to be counteracting the U.S. and preventing an enormous boom in emissions. Electricity generated by coal declined in India by 3%. China's coal generation was down 1.6 percent from the previous year. It's the first time since 1973 that coal-based electricity generation fell simultaneously in both countries.

 "The fall in 2025 is a sign of things to come, as both countries added a record amount of new clean-power generation last year, which was more than sufficient to meet rising demand," according to Carbon Brief, which did the analysis on India and China's greenhouse gas emissions. 

It's possible both countries are reaching a historic peak in coal use. Climatologists and other scientists are hoping from now, coal use in China and India continue to decline. 

China managed to reduce coal consumption despite electricity demand growing by 5 percent over the year. India's reduction in coal use might have been partly weather related. The extreme heat waves India has experienced in recent years were not quite as severe in 2025. 

Bottom line: We have a mixed future in further diminishing the global dependence on coal and oil. But the United States, once in a leader in the battle against climate change, has turned into the world's worst enemy. 

That seems to be a trend lately.  

Today's The Start Of Our Nation's Snowy, Icy Nightmare; Arctic Air Already Established

Weather channel map shows enormous area under the
gun for freezing rain in the Southeast. Pink
and purple areas to get freezing rain, with the
worst hit areas in dark purple.

It was close to 30 below with wind chills of near 50 below early this morning in northern Minnesota. That frigid air continues to race south and east, setting the stage for one of the most widespread winter storms to hit the U.S. in recent memory. 

Of course it won't be 20 below in places like Oxford, Mississippi or Waxahachie, Texas, or Hazard, Kentucky, Lumberton, North Carolina, Frederick, Maryland, or probably even Harmonyville, Vermont.

But all those places will easily be cold enough to endure lots of snow, lots of ice, and lots of brutally cold weather for the next few days. 

Media reports say at least 170 million Americans are under some kind of winter weather alert. That includes all 643,000 or so people who live here in Vermont. 

The first snowflakes and first icy raindrops have just started falling in the South and the effect are already being felt. Governors in a dozen states have declared emergencies. Natural gas prices have surged by 60 percent as people crank the heat off to ward off the icy or blizzardy chill. 

The most dangerous part of this storm is the expected freezing rain from Texas to the Southeast U.S. coast. 

This will cover a much larger area than most ice storms. Most of the areas at risk for the heaviest ice are heavily forested. That means lots of power outages as some of these trees collapse under the weight o the ice. 

Typically, if one area is hit by an ice storm, utility companies rush in from other states to help rebuild the power grid. That's going to be a more difficult this time because such a huge region is under the gun with freezing rain. 

Utility crews from further north in the expected snow zone are probably going to help. I hope some of them are staging in the southern freezing rain area now so they won't have to fight their way through heavy snow to get there. 

The heavy snow zone is itself enormous. Everybody in a broad band from northern Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas northeastward through New England will get at least six inches of snow. A number of places are in for more than a foot. 

It's also going to be dangerous after the storm. I mentioned Oxford, Mississippi. They're expecting an inch of ice, more than enough to bring down lots of trees and power lines. Unlike many southern winter storms, it's going to stay cold well after the storm in Oxford and most other places in the South. Overnight lows in Oxford are forecast to be in the single digits early next week.

There's almost too much to watch across the nation as this storm unfolds. But it's going to be an interesting few days. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The snow squalls, the intense cold and our share of the big U.S. winter storm are all on tap for Vermont.

Snow Squalls

Another look at the brief but intense snow squall in
Burlington, Vermont yesterday. Photo is when the 
intensity was just starting to decline. 

Those impressive snow squalls yesterday here and there in Vermont brought zero visibility and winds to 45 mph in some spots yesterday. 

More snow squalls are in the works today as that Arctic cold front approaches. Already, as of 8:30 a.m. one narrow band of fairly heavy snow was entering the northwestern corner of Vermont. Another such band was in Rutland County.

We'll see more of this through the day. Some of the squalls might even hit after the front passes and while temperatures are dropping. So in that respect, these could be more dangerous than those that hit Thursday. 

It was warm enough Thursday for the snow to quickly melt off the roads once the squalls departed. Today will be colder, so the road conditions won't improve as fast. And of course if you're caught in one of those squalls on the road, good luck seeing anything in front of you. 

Nobody will get much snow out of this. Most places will see an inch or less. It's just that in some places, all that snow will come down in something like 10 minutes. 

Intense Cold

After peaking late this morning or early afternoon close to 20 degrees, temperatures will crash as stiff northwest winds pick up. The worst of it will be tonight and the first half of Saturday with the lowest temperatures and the strongest winds. Those are the hours when our extreme cold warning is in effect. 

It still looks like actual temperatures will go below zero this evening and bottom out early tomorrow morning in the upper single numbers to upper teens below zero. Wind chills will be in the 20 to 40 below range. 

It still looks like highs tomorrow will only make it to about zero. A little below that in the north, and little above that in southern valleys. 

Usually in a cold wave like this the second night is even colder. We originally thought that would be the case Saturday night. But that massive storm will start clouding us up by then.  Northern areas will probably be a little colder than Friday morning, but with less wind.

Southern Vermont, where the clouds will arrive first, might be a little warmer Sunday morning than Saturday morning. Don't break out the Hawaiian shirts, though. It will still be below zero

The Storm

As we suspected last evening would happen, the winter storm watch that was in effect for southern Vermont has bee extended through the state all the way to the Canadian border.  The computer model keep pushing the storm a little north, and also frigid, dry high pressure north.

The high pressure is important. If it was centered close to us, moisture coming up this way would get eaten up by the dry air, and we'd get little snow. If the high is further north in Quebec, the moisture would have an easier time invading, so we'd get more snow. 

The computer models are disagreeing on exactly how much snow we'll get Sunday into Monday. Early guesses have five or six inches near the Canadian border to over a foot near the Massachusetts border.

Don't take that as gospel. There will be adjustments.

We can tell you that we know southern Vermont will get more snow than the north. We don't have to worry about sleet and freezing rain. And this will be an unusually cold snow storm. 

Temperatures during the event will be in the single numbers and low teens. It will probably be a pretty fluffy snow. None of that wet, heavy crap we've often gotten in recent winters. 

Cleanup after the storm in Vermont isn't going to go great either. Temperatures will be low enough after the storm so that salt won't work great on the roads.

Actually cleanup won't be easy anywhere because there's a nationwide shortage of road salt. Until now, it hasn't been a particularly cold winter in the U.S., but there's been a lot of icy storms. Salt is in short supply. 

Or even nonexistent in some communities.

The City of Vergennes posted on Facebook yesterday that it is entirely out of salt.  Rutland is almost out of salt, too. So is Monkton and West Rutland. And probably some other Vermont towns. 

The salt shortage is hitting the entire state. The Vermont Department of Motor Vehicles has temporarily waived driving hour limits for salt delivery drivers until the end of the month because of the high demand. 

It'll stay cold all of next week, though not as cold as tomorrow. Still, highs in the low to  mid teens and lows near zero don't sound like fun.

The weather pattern over the next two weeks tends to favor more nor'easters. It's hard to tell whether any of them will come close enough to Vermont to give us more snow, so we'll just have to wait and see. 

 

Thursday Evening Bitter Cold, Huge Winter Storm Update

The blue winter watches you saw in this morning's
National Weather Service map had started turning 
pink and purple as watches were upgraded
to winter and ice storm warnings. 

Huge swaths of the United States are bracing for that massive winter storm that will hit starting tomorrow and continue over the weekend. 

The forecasts keep getting worse. This is going to be a long, dangerous slog for a lot of people. And that includes the people north of the snow and ice storm who are or are about to endure temperatures far below zero. 

Just as in this morning's post, this Thursday evening update will give a broad brush look at the nation first, then zero in to Vermont for my local readers. 

As of late this afternoon, winter storm warnings - meaning trouble is inevitable - stretch from eastern New Mexico, through all but the southeastern third of Texas, then as far north as northern Missouri and as far east as Kentucky. 

Winter storm watches extend from Georgia to New England.  I still can't get over what a huge area this storm will cover. 

A huge area of freezing rain will be the worst part of this mess

Meteorologists are also beginning to pin down the location where ice from freezing rain might accumulate the most. One broad band of that freezing rain would extend from Texas, then go across northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi and up to just south of Nashville.

Another worrying area of ice looks like it might run through northeast Georgia through Upstate South Carolina and into the Piedmont, central North Carolina and parts of Virginia. 

The first ice storm warnings have been issued for sections of Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee. 

The newly released ice storm warning for heavily forested northern Mississippi calls for a half inch to an inch of ice. Trees really start taking a beating at a half inch of ice, so this will be a horrible mess for them. 

North of the ice, a broad band of heavy snow - probably more than 100 miles wide - will extend from northern Texas all the way to New England. Parts of Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia and Virginia could receive around two feet of snow. 

Memories are still fresh in Texas regarding the catastrophic electrical grid collapse during severe cold and winter storms in 2021. State officials say the grid will hold this time, though areas most affected by freezing rain could have extended power outages. 

It would be a damn good idea to follow any instructions from meteorologists and local officials about what to do during the storm. 

I'd skip the sensational stuff online. For instance, all the trees in especially frigid northern Minnesota aren't going to "explode." People in those areas and elsewhere might hear some loud cracks or booms as sap in trees cracks a small minority of tree trunks and branches. But don't worry about tree parts flying all over the place.

It is cold up there in North Dakota and Wisconsin. For instance, as of 3:30 p.m local time, the temperature in the northern Minnesota town of Warroad was a pleasant 22 below. Winds gusting to 24 mph gave them a windchill of 50 below. 

At least Warroad can take comfort in the fact that freezing rain is not in their forecast.   

I've also seen those conspiracy theories again in which some evil group is causing this. It's not. Obviously. This huge storm is what you get when massive dose of Arctic air collides with a boatload upon boatload of moisture heading north from the Gulf of Mexico.

VERMONT UPDATE

Intense snow squall crossing Lake Champlain before
slamming into Burlington this afternoon.

Boy, those snow squalls were something today, weren't they? They didn't drop much snow and didn't last long in any one place, but they were definitely dramatic. I've even heard an unofficial report of a lightning strike or two. 

Winds gusted to 40 mph or more in some of the more severe squalls. They were quick, though. I was in Burlington when the squall hit there, Five minutes after visibility was near zero in snow, it was nice and sunny with bright blue skies. 

More Squalls

As darkness fell late this afternoon, those squalls were simmering down nicely. 

However, we'll do it again tomorrow afternoon as another round of snow squall will come through. The difference tomorrow is it will be much colder, and less sunny, so the roads won't clear up as fast after the brief but heavy snows pass.

Not everyone will get a squall, but everybody should get some snow showers. Mostly in the late morning to mid afternoon.

Extreme Cold

Then the cold hits. The extreme cold watch, as expected, has been upgraded to an extreme cold warning. It runs from tomorrow evening to early Saturday afternoon. Expect wind chills of 20 to 40 below. 

Even after the cold warning expires Saturday afternoon, high temperatures will remain within a couple degrees either side of zero. Because of some increasing high clouds Saturday night, forecasters have backed off slightly on the chill. But it will still be awful, with lows Sunday morning in the upper single numbers to mid teens below zero. Maybe near 20 below in a few Northeast Kingdom spots

The Storm 

Forecasts keep trending northward with the heavier snow. A winter storm watch is now in effect for the southern four counties of Vermont Sunday afternoon into Monday. Those places could see seven inches of snow or more 

For now, there's no storm alerts for northern and central Vermont. But many of the computer models are starting to bring the heavier snow as far north as the Canadian border or even far southern Quebec. 

As always, I'll have many more updates and details in tomorrow morning's post. 

 

Trump Says Climate Change Is A Hoax. But That's Partly What Got Him So Obsessed With Greenland

Donald Trump's desire to seize Greenland is likely less
about national security and more about mining the 
island's riches, and climate change. 

If I had a penny for every time Donald Trump said climate change is a hoax, I'd be as rich as he claims to be. 

And yet. Trump's latest foolishness with Greenland has been brought about in large part by the very climate change he denies. 

Let's set the scene: 

As you may have heard, Trump is insisting that the U,S. annex Greenland. He keeps yakking about "national security," that Russia or China will arrive in take over Greenland in about an hour unless the U.S. does so first.

In reality, it probably isn't so much about security. Existing security agreements, and NATO, preclude Russia and China from causing too much trouble in Greenland.

Remember, the basis of NATO is if one member is attacked, the whole organization is attacked. So in a world without Trump, if somebody invaded Greenland,  U.S. and NATO forces would defend the Arctic island. 

I don't believe China or Russia would take such a big risk. I've seen a lot of analysis out there that says the same thing. 

Of course, if the U.S. attacked Greenland, that would be a war against Denmark. As PBS notes, NATO has no obvious way of dealing with open conflict among its members. 

That's why an American invasion or non-consensual takeover of Greenland would probably end NATO.

Here's why Trump might want to see NATO go the way of the dinosaurs: 

Trump and his oligarch cronies really want to exploit the natural resources up there in Greenland, including diamonds, lithium and copper.  These minerals are super valuable nowadays because we need them to build things like batteries and smart phones.

I also surmise that Trump sees NATO as an obstacle to obtaining those riches. He's probably looking for a convenient way to put NATO into the garbage dumpster of history.

Or something like that. 

Trump doesn't even have to take over Greenland for "national security." 

A 1951 treaty with Denmark gives the U.S. military carte blanche to do pretty much whatever we want in Greenland's territory. We could send thousands of troops up there tomorrow if we need to. So, as futurism.com tells us, there's no national security need for us to take over Greenland. 

Which means "national security" is just a fig leaf for Trump and his gang to make more money off his presidency. It's all transactional. 

IT'S CLIMATE

The Washington Post had a nice analysis of the situation in Sunday's editions. This one paragraph helps crystalize the situation. And tells us why climate change matters in all of this.  

"The prospect of the United States using military force against the NATO ally, as Trump has floated, could end the decades-old defense pact. His bid for the territory is one of the most concrete examples of how climate change is influencing geopolitics. As the northernmost parts of our planet continue to warm, the effects could change the ways the international community operates."

 The Arctic is warming at four times the rate of the rest of the world. The extent of Arctic sea ice is declining. That, in turn is exposing some potential tantalizing sea routes on top of the planet. 

 Here's how WaPo lays out the stakes:

"'The freeing of the Arctic from sea ice, at least seasonally, will create an entirely new theater for economic and security competition,' said Joseph Majkut, director of the energy security and climate change program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 'And while we've know that is going to be the case for some time, it seems we're at an inflection point.'"

A study in the journal Nature said that if the planet warms by a total of 2 degrees Celsius over the average in the late 19th century, the open water period in the Arctic would increase to 63 days each summer.  If that warming goes above 3,5 degrees above the Victorian Age climate, the Arctic could be open for shipping at least three months out of the year.

Of course we don't know how long it will take to get that warm, so all bets are off. 

There's another issue related to the climate change that Trump says is a hoax. As Greenland's vast ice cap inexorably melts, the diamonds, lithium and copper Trump and his billionaire buddies covet become more accessible.  

"His fixation on Greenland is an admission that climate change is real," John Conger, and advisor to the Center or Climate and Security said in the New York Times, as futurism.com points out. 

Trump probably also wants Greenland so he can change the rules up there. 

The New York Times notes that Greenland has banned uranium mining. Uranium is often found right alongside rare earth minerals like lithium. The ban is already facing legal challenges, and if Trump takes over Greenland, that no uranium rule would be gone in a flash.

It turns out Trump thinks climate change is real. The "hoax" language he uses for our warming world is just one of many ploys to gin up his cup.