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| Weather radar this morning showed areas of rain moving northwest to southeast across central and southern Vermont The light blue shading on the northern edge is just clouds and very light rain evaporating before it hits the ground.. Heavier, more drenching rain is forecast to arrive Wednesday night. |
Areas of rain, most of it light but some of it moderate, to almost heavy, were racing northwest to southeast across southern and central Vermont this morning.
Northern Vermont was missing out. Clouds were thick and threatening in northwest Vermont, close to the rain band, but thinner up in the Northeast Kingdom..
That state of affairs will continue to day, though the rain in southern Vermont will tend to taper off as the afternoon goes on
North of Route 2, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some sunshine breaks out this afternoon.
A stalled weather front to our south and west is responsible for today's rainy weather.
Total rainfall through tonight looks like they'll amount to a quarter to a half inch in the southern half of Vermont with very little north.
Scattered showers overnight tonight might deposit a paltry few hundredths of an inch of rain north of Route 2. Too bad, as the Northeast Kingdom needs the rain more than other parts of the state.
Under the rain and clouds, highs in southern and central Vermont will only get into autumnal highs in the 60s. Northern Vermont, outside the rain, could make it into the 70s.
Our sole chance of soaking rains will come later Wednesday through the pre-dawn Thursday.
WEDNESDAY
We need the rain, and it's still looking like we'll get a decent dose of rain Wednesday night.
We'll likely get through the day Wednesday without much of rain. It'll be cloudy and vaguely humid, but any showers should be light and few and far between. Highs should get into the 70s, with some mid and upper 60s under areas with thicker clouds, especially east of the Green Mountains.
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A stronger area of low pressure will push that stalled front toward us. The system will fire up severe thunderstorms from western New York southeastward to New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware.
Up here in Vermont, thunderstorms should weaken and fade away before reaching us, but we do have a shot at some fairly heavy downpours. The rain will reach us in the evening and continue overnight.
Over all, the National Weather Service expects a nice three quarters to an inch of rain for most spots, with over an inch in some areas of the Green Mountains. Unfortunately the far corners of the Northeast Kingdom might receive as little as a half inch of rain.
The rain will be steady enough, without too many short, sharp bursts of torrential downpours, that flooding looks pretty unlikely
THURSDAY-SATURDAY
The storm system will amble on to the east, but not in any kind of hurry. This will keep cool-ish, sort of moist north winds blowing. That could set off some scattered showers, especially Thursday as a secondary weak cold front drifts through Vermont.
This rain will not be heavy, and it will be scattered. Northern mountains have the best shot at seeing the showers.
Day by day, the showers will become lighter and more scattered so that by Sunday, there shield be few if any sprinkles left over.
Daytime temperature should be pretty comfortable through the period as highs should reach the 70s, with some upper 60s on cooler, northern areas, especially the Northeast Kingdom.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND
We'd better hope the above forecast for a soaking rain comes true, as we look to be in for a fairly long period of dry to mostly dry weather.
Once we get into September, we often see big, dry high pressure systems hang out nearby. The next chance of rain looks like it will be just scattered showers ahead of a cold front early Tuesday.
A storm system riding along that front could bring heavier rain to the south. This is a long way off, so there's always a chance that storm could come closer to us than forecast, and give us some rain. But we'll wait to worry about that in a few days.
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