Vermont Late Winter/Spring Record Books Majorly Re-Written In Recent Years

In recent years, record high upon record high has 
re-written the weather record books in Burlington, Vermont
during late winter and spring.
It almost makes me half wonder if someday March
in Vermont will look like this photo. 

 The  warmth we just experienced has contributed to a big re-write of the late winter and early spring record books. 

On the warm side of the record ledger, things are way different than they were a few years ago. 

Until 2017, the warmest it had gotten in February in Burlington, at least since the 1880s, was 62 degrees in 1981. Then, on February 23, 2017, that record was broken when the temperature reached 63 degrees.

But the warmth that year was just getting started. On February 25, 2017, the temperature soared to an incredible 72 degrees which was just insane. At the time, I thought I would never see anything close to that in my lifetime. 

Oops.

On February 21, 2018 - just one year later, it got up to 69 degrees in Burlington. It was 70 in Montpelier that day for a new record high for the month of February.  This is just two examples of how the record books for late winter and early spring are being upended. 

Starting a little over 30 years ago - a short time in the scheme of things - and accelerating in recent years, the Vermont weather record books are being very much re-written. With new record highs Tuesday and Wednesday of this week fourteen daily record highs - half of February's total, were set since 2016.  If you want to include Leap Day, the record high for the date was set in 2016.

For many decades until 1990, the earliest 70 degree reading in Burlington was March 20.  Then in 1990, an incredible early season heat wave brought temperatures to 72 degrees on March 15 and 78 on March 16.

At the time, I thought we couldn't possibly see a 70 degree reading earlier in the season. Then in 2016, it was 70 degrees on March 9. The year after that, we had the previously mentioned 72 in February, 2017.

Until 2012, the earliest 80 degree reading on record came on March 29. They in 2012, Burlington saw three consecutive days at or above 80 degrees on March 20-22.

The record book re-writing of the past 30 years or so extends into April. The earliest 90 degree reading on record was set just over 20 years ago, on April 17, 2002. Just last year, it was 88 degrees on April 13, the warmest for so early in the season. 

As climate change takes hold, record highs in Vermont - and in most other places - have been far outpacing record lows at all times of the year. 

But for some reason in Vermont, February through mid-April keeps giving us the most frequent most extreme record highs. 

It seems wild to me that the 65 degree temperature we had on Tuesday is only the third warmest February day on record.  Until a few years ago, it was almost a matter of faith that it couldn't get that warm in February.

After the chilly weather we had on Thursday, it's going to warm up again. Although we probably won't see breathtaking heat in the coming days, we have a few days in our immediate future that could threaten a couple more records for the date in early March. 

 

Super Cold Front Legacy: Lots Of Power Outages

Looks nice outside in St. Albans, Vermont this morning
but a stiff, frigid north wind was still tossing the
pine branches around. 

 Boy, the wind surged big time along and behind that big cold front last night. 

High winds were expected with this thing and they certainly delivered. Lots of power outages were reported throughout New York, New England and Quebec. 

About 180,000 outages were reported in Quebec and another 30,000 at least in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. 

Here in Vermont, the outages peaked at about 13,600 homes and businesses at around midnight last night. As of 8:45 a.m. there were still a good 6,000 in the dark. 

Some roads overnight in Vermont were blocked by fallen trees, wires and branches, and that has pretty much been cleaned up. 

We had several reports of wind gusts exceeding 50 mph in Vermont. Since you can't have a wind gauge everywhere, I'm sure there were a few spots that got to 60 mph. Especially in favored downslope areas in far northern Vermont and the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. 

I did notice a gust to 72 mph in Ticonderoga, New York, just over the Vermont border.  Wind damage was worse in eastern New York than in Vermont because of downslope winds off the Adirondacks. 

Vermont has had a rough go of it over the past few months with storms and the electrical grid. This is the fifth time since late November in which a storm caused 10,000 or more power outages in the Green Mountain State. 

As you noticed, it's cold out there, also as expected. Just a 24-hour return to winter.  Most of the main roads are cleared up and fine as of 9 a.m. today. A lot of sidewalks, back roads and such are still icy after water quickly froze overnight. 

Nobody got much snow to speak of. Looks like about a quarter inch outside my door in St. Albans, Vermont. A trace was reported in Burlington. 

Also, I bet a lot of dirt and gravel roads are a mess today.  They were mud bogs yesterday. The big ruts left behind by cars and trucks trying to get through that mud are now frozen hard. So that will be a challenge for anybody trying to navigate a back road. 

Today will remain gusty and cold, but bright, with sun and some clouds. Temperatures in the teens this morning will barely rise to near 20. Gusts to 25 mph will make it feel like zero. 

Thawing returns tomorrow afternoon.  Forecasts continue to call for a long stretch of much warmer than normal weather starting Saturday and lasting at least through Wednesday. 

Quick Wednesday Evening Storm Update: Few Changes, Blast On Our Doorstep

Strong south winds in St. Albans Bay today was causing 
a slight "ice shove." The wind was pushing ice
up the bank toward the park above the lake. 

Quick Vermont storm update this late Wednesday afternoon. 

It's gotten awfully dark out there as of 4 p.m. this afternoon and the south wind has picked up as the big promised cold front bears down on us.  

We did manage another record high in Burlington today as it reached at least 60 degrees so far, besting the record of 59 degrees in 2018. 

 It might go up another degree or two, as sometimes an approaching cold front compresses the air, heating it a bit. 

It still looks like it will enter western Vermont a little after 6 p.m. and quickly move through. 

There have been some little changes to the forecast.

Most notably, the flood watch has been dropped. 

Expected showers during the day under were pretty underwhelming, so we missed out on that runoff.  The downpours with the front shouldn't be enough to cause much in the way of flooding. Rivers will still rise, but most should stay at or  just below bankful 

Winds will remain gusty from the south until the front hits.  Some favored areas in the Champlain Valley are gusting over 40 mph and that will continue for a couple more hours. 

When the front arrives, the wind will pick up from the west. Some of the taller showers with this front might be able to grab some high speed air from aloft and bring it to the surface. That'll be hit and miss.  

The western half of Vermont still is under a marginal risk for severe storms, because of those possible wind gusts. That's the lowest risk level on a five point scale.  As of 4:15 p.m., I am seeing a line of scattered lightning strikes near Ottawa, Canada and a couple more near Watertown, New York. 

So there might be an isolated lightning flash or two or a rumble of thunder when this comes through in the next few hours. But nothing to really light up the skies. 

Behind the front, wind gusts will continue. The highest winds might actually come about an hour after the front goes through. By that point, says the National Weather Service, the atmosphere will be able to mix some higher speed winds to the surface. 

So, the wind advisory remains in effect through the night. 

A flash freeze later tonight is still in the cards, too. Nothing has changed with that aspect of the forecast. Expect some slick spots on the roads Thursday morning. Many of us will probably see a little snow at the tail end of this event, but it won't amount to much. 

You can see how fast it gets cold behind the front by looking at reports from western New York. Buffalo, New York was at 64 degrees at noon, but down to 45 at 1 p.m. By 4 p.m., it was 33 and snowing in Buffalo. 

Watertown, New York was at 61 degrees at 3 p.m. and 45 at 4 p.m. So it's coming, folks!

It's still looking blustery and cold tomorrow. 

I'll leave it at that and I'll see how we did with this in the morning with a new report here in this blog thingy.  

Record Warmth And Temperature Clash Caused Danger, Storms, Weirdness Across Much Of Nation

Screenshot of video taken through windshield as the
vehicle drove over a bridge with the Texas
wildfire beneath it. 

It's obviously not just Vermont going through strange weather, record highs, storminess and temperature swings. 

Other parts of the nation are getting either blasted or weirded out, too.   

TEXAS FIRES

Probably the most dangerous situation is in north Texas, where wildfires spun way out of control Tuesday amid rock bottom humidity and winds gusting to 70 mph.

 It didn't help that a cold front abruptly shifted the strong winds from the west to the north, making the fires especially erratic. 

One of the fires is the second largest in Texas history.  It's about half the size of Rhode Island and growing. That same fire also spread into Oklahoma and was 0 percent contained as of early this morning. 

The fires sent people fleeing from a series of rural towns and ranches north of Amarillo. 

Though details are still sketchy, the town of Fritch, population 2,000 appears to be hard hit, with an unknown number of homes lost, says the Associated Press. At one point, the city of Borger, population 13,000 was entirely surrounded by fire, so people couldn't flee. 

Several homes in the town of Canadian also burned, according to CNN.

Firefighting efforts and a wind shift kept most of the fire outside of Borger.

The wind has lightened up and cooler weather has arrived. There might even be a small amount of rain and snow Thursday. But dangerous fire conditions are forecast to return next week.  

MIDWEST TORNADOES

At least 13 tornadoes hit parts of northern Illinois, Ohio and Michigan yesterday and last night. That's very far north for tornadoes this time of year, especially that many. 

In late February, there is often an uptick in tornadoes, but those almost always occur in the Southeast during the last winter.  

Screenshot of tornado damage in Michigan this morning. 

In the Midwest, there were several reports of damage, but no serious injuries. Chicago's O'Hare airport was briefly under a tornado warning, but it appears no twisters touched down there. 

A few severe thunderstorms are possible today and this evening in a broad stripe along the Appalachians from Alabama to Vermont, but no additional tornadoes are forecast. 

TEMPERATURE WEIRDNESS

The cold front causing the severe weather and worsening the wildfires also caused lots of strange temperatures changes. 

Yankton, South Dakota was sunny and 70 degrees at 4 p.m. Monday. Exactly 24 hours later, it was 13 degrees and snowing. 

St. Louis reached 86 degrees on Tuesday, its hottest February day on record. Just 15 hours later, it was 60 degrees colder, at just 26 degrees. 

On Monday, Rockford, Illinois reached 73 degrees, breaking the record high for the entire month of February and for meteorological winter, which runs from December 1 through February 29.  That record lasted only one day, as Rockford reached  78 degrees Tuesday, incredible for that far north.

By 7 a.m. today, Rockford was down to 19 degrees with a north wind gusting to 51 mph and a wind chill of 2 above. 

It looks like at least 120 weather stations in the United States had their all time hottest February day over this past week. 

Record warmth hit parts of Canada, too. Ormstown, Quebec, about 50 miles northwest of Alburgh, Vermont,  reached 69 degrees, the hottest February temperature on record in the entire province of Quebec. 

Several cities in Ontario also had their hottest February day on record. The same cold front making temperatures crash in the United States is also hitting Canada. This morning, Sudbury, Ontario went from 41 degrees to 14 in an hour. 

SIERRA BLIZZARD 

A separate storm is set to cause one of the worst blizzards of the 21st century in the Sierra Nevada mountains. 

Between Thursday morning and Sunday morning, lower elevations near Lake Tahoe can expect two to four feet of snow with winds gusting to 60 mph. A little higher up, snow totals are expected to reach four to eight feet with winds gusting to 100 mph. 

Forecasters warn that travel will become virtually impossible for days, that stuck cars could end up being entirely buried in snow. Whiteout conditions will quickly disorient anyone out on foot. So it's a dangerous storm. 

One of the few bright sides to this storm is that total snow cover is lagging a little bit in the Sierra, and this will help them catch up. 

Heat And Wind And Rain And Thunder And Snow: February In Vermont

Buds on a lilac bush on my St. Albans, Vermont 
property already beginning to swell at the end
of February amid record warmth. Some of the lawn
looks suspiciously green, too. 

It never got below 50 degrees in Burlington, Vermont last night, meaning it was a typical overnight for late May. 

The weather keeps running off the rails after yesterday's record warmth.   The character of it changes today, before things get wild this evening. 

Tuesday was a delightful, sunny spring day in the Green Mountain State, never mind that it's February. The record high of 65 in Burlington would have been normal for May 5, the time of year when flowers and buds are bursting into green.

Of course, a lot of plants in local gardens are starting to poke up, which is way too early.

Record highs are inevitable today. By 8 a.m. today, Burlington was already up to 56 degrees, just three degree shy of the record high for the date. 

A burst of rain showers might or might not delay the inevitable record high, but a break in the rain this afternoon should ensure record highs once again across Vermont.  Burlington should get into the 60s for the second day in a row, and might even exceed Tuesday's ridiculous high temperature. Temperatures in the 50s will be widespread in "cooler" areas of the sate. 

You should see south winds picking up through the day, too, as that powerful cold front approaches this evening. By afternoon, winds will be gusting to 40 or even 50 mph in some spots.  

A wind advisory kicks in across Vermont at 1 p.m today and lasts until 7 a.m. Thursday. That covers the gusty south winds ahead of our big cold front, the gusts along the front and the rushes of wind behind the front as the cold air works in. 

Drama Hour

The drama should really hit when the cold front comes through. It still looks like it will arrive roughly at 6 p.m give or take in the Champlain Valley, and 7 p.m. or a little after  in eastern Vermont. Again, give or take. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still 
has much of Vermont and the eastern
U.S. in a marginal risk zone for
severe thunderstorms today. 

The front will bring a narrow band of torrential rains and possible thunderstorms, and a big surge of wind. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has most of Vermont under a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms with this. Some bursts of winds with this could be damaging. You might see little or  no lightning with these storms, so they'll mean business.

You might want to stay off the roads as this comes through due to the blinding rain and gusts of wind. Or at least take it easy. 

The flood watch remains in effect, too, mostly along and west of the Green Mountains. The combination of rapid snowmelt from the mountains today and those downpours along the cold front should get rivers rising pretty fast. 

It'll be a minor flood, but still, watch out this evening and overnight for water on low-lying roads, and in urban areas during and just after the evening downpours.

This time, it won't be a disaster. Downtown Montpelier, Johnson and other flood-prone communities are pretty safe this time, except for those low elevation roads near rivers. Some steep back roads could suffer some erosion. And if there are any culverts still clogged by ice, that could cause a couple problems, too   

Spring Ends Temporarily 

Behind the front, we'll see rapidly falling temperatures and still some strong, gusty west winds. By late this evening, it'll start to go below freezing. It doesn't look like there will be much snow at the tail end of this. Maybe a half inch in the valleys, an inch or two in the mountains.

But that water will freeze hard and fast, especially since temperatures will crash into the teens by dawn or earlier. You'll be dealing with icy sidewalks and untreated roadways and driveways tomorrow morning, that's for sure. 

For just one day Thursday, we'll have winter weather with sunshine, temperatures holding near 20 all day with gusty winds keeping wind chills near zero. Then that ends as quickly as it began. 

Spring Comes Back

The oddly warm weather we've had all winter comes back to make March come in like a lamb. Sure, it'll be chilly at dawn, Friday, March 1. But it will be in the 40s by afternoon. After that, it looks like much of Vermont will see a good five consecutive days with highs in the 50s - very warm and very strange for early March.  

After Record-Shattering Warmth Today, Vermont In For A Wild, Stormy Ride

Go back! Lots of daffodil shoots and other green plants
were coming up today in my St. Albans, Vermont 
gardens amid record warmth. In February. 

 As you might have noticed, the warmth in most of Vermont really over-performed today, as record highs were shattered by wide margins. 

Burlington got up to 65 degrees, blasting past the old record for the date of 57 set in 2000.

 In nearby St. Albans, I found myself doing outdoor yard chores comfortably dressed in shorts and a sleeveless t-shirt. 

Other record highs  today included 55 in Montpelier and 54 in Plattsburgh.  

The wild storm due tomorrow seems wilder than earlier forecasts, judging from forecasts issued this afternoon. There are a bunch of weather alerts, watches, prognostications of other hazards and some pretty extreme changes in the weather. 

Let's take the hazards one at a time, though a lot of these problems will be intertwined. 

High Winds

Virtually all if Vermont is under either a high wind watch or a wind advisory for Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Southern Vermont, and the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains into central Vermont, are under a high wind watch from early afternoon well into the evening. 

Although some damaging wind gusts - up to 60 mph - could occur before the storm's powerful cold front comes through Wednesday evening, most of these gusts in the high wind watch area will hit along and just after the front comes through. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, a wind advisory is up from Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning.  Once again, some of the strong gusts could come through in the warm air ahead of the cold front, but the worst of it will be along the cold front and in the rapidly chilling air behind it. Gusts could reach 55 mph. 

This won't be as destructive as the two big wind storms in January, but we'll deal with some tree damage and scattered power outages with this one.

Thunderstorms

A real rarity for February: A low, but not
zero risk of severe thunderstorms in the 
Northeast, including Vermont. Severe
storms possible in darker green shading on map.

We could see some thunderstorms during the morning or early afternoon, but that's iffy. 

The real trouble would be just ahead and along the cold front Wednesday evening. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center actually has us under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday, which is extremely rare for February.   

The only time I can remember Vermont being under my kind of severe thunderstorm risk in February was at the tail end of record February warmth in 2017.

True, a marginal risk is the lowest level of five risk levels, but still that's something. This will probably take the form of a narrow line of strong storms sweeping west to east across Vermont as the cold front plows through. 

There will probably be only a little lightning, or maybe none at all in many places, but these storms will mean business. 

Flooding

A flood watch has been hoisted for all of Vermont. Rainfall won't be all that extreme -  running from a half inch to a little over an inch. 

However, most of it will come in heavy downpours in the late afternoon and evening. Plus, there's snow melt. There actually is some snow in the mid and high elevations. Today's warmth "primed" the snow for melting.

Warmth, and a high humidity for this time of year will really melt that snow super fast Wednesday afternoon before the cold air hits. The combination of the snowmelt from the mountains and the rain should make rivers rise pretty fast Wednesday evening and night. 

The rivers to watch in Vermont are mostly the Otter Creek in Rutland County, and the Mad River in central Vermont which could hit minor flood stage. 

This won't be as bad as the flooding we had in December, but look out for high water on low lying roads, ponding and urban street flooding during and just after the evening downpours and some washouts on back roads.

Record Warmth

Given how much warmer it got today than forecast, I see that meteorologists are now pretty bullish on record heat on Wednesday.  It still looks like there might be a lull in the showers during the afternoon. 

Even though it will be much cloudier Wednesday than today, the atmosphere will actually hold more heat than this afternoon. The result: More highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s are definitely possible. That will shatter more records. 

Snow/Flash Freeze/Wind Chills

We're still looking at an incredible temperature crash after the cold front goes through. Since this is part of such a dynamic storm systems, we'll see a rapid change over to snow - probably within three hours after the cold front blasts through.  There might be a brief period of heavy, wet snow, maybe even isolated thunder snow. Then the snow will rapidly taper off to fluffy flurries.

As temperatures crash, much of the day's rain and that possible burst of wet snow will freeze. So by later Wednesday night and overnight Thursday, the roads will probably turn awful in a hurry. There still should be a "hangover" of slick roads even by the time the Thursday morning commute rolls around. 

Skies will rapidly clear Thursday, but it will be a truly winter day - the last we'll have for quite awhile, as it looks. After getting down to within a few degrees of 10 above in the morning, it will barely make it to the low 20s in the afternoon, if that. The wind will continue to blow hard, gusting to 35 mph or more in a few spots. Expect wind chills near 0.

That will certainly be a shock to the system after today.  But we're still looking at more spring weather starting over the weekend. 

Sure, tomorrow and tomorrow night's weather will be a bit challenging in Vermont, but nothing like other parts of the nation.  

For instance, there's a 0 percent chance of flaming tumbleweeds racing across  Vermont roads tomorrow. That's not the case in parts of Texas, where wildfires amid winds over 60 mph have caused evacuations and property damage.

Meanwhile, parts of Illinois, including Chicago, and other areas of the Midwest are bracing for giant hail and possible tornadoes overnight. 

 

Wild Record High Temperatures In Nation; Spreads To Vermont Today. Plus: Stormy Weather

One of my perennial gardens in St. Albans, Vermont
this morning. It looked almost exactly like this at
the end of March last year. It bloomed prematurely
last year, so I wonder what the expected near 
record temperatures this week and next will do to it. 

 

UPDATE NOON TUESDAY

Baby, it's hot outside

As of noon, Burlington, Vermont had already broken the record high for the date of 59 degrees.

The old record was 57 degrees in 2000.

It's insane out there, to be honest. Temperatures will probably rise a few more degrees. We have decent chance of seeing the third hottest February day on record. 

The only warmer February days in Burlington were recent: 72 degrees on February 25, 2017 and 69 degrees on

February 21, 2018. 

Before 2017, the warmest it had ever gotten during February was 62 degrees.

The sights I'm seeing out there seem strange for February, too. Motorcycles are buzzing along highways. Trucks with trailers are hauling ice fishing shanties away from the lakes. 

There's actually a brush fire risk out there. It's windy, especially in the Champlain Valley, where there is no snow.  I wouldn't be surprised to see reports of grass or forest fires in low elevations today. In February!! 

I'm glad I burned my brush pile last week when there was a little snow on the ground. 

Skies were mostly clear at noon, but there was a hint of wildfire smoke up above. Another strange sight for February. The smoke is coming from a few wildfires in the South earlier this week.  There's also some large wildfires in the Great Plains, and we might eventually see a little smoke or haze in the sky 

from that. Either from this heat wave or another one scheduled for the weekend and early next week

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

I was pretty much in awe of record highs temperature reports from the middle of the United States yesterday. 

This ain't your grandfather's February, that's for sure. 

Those record highs extended from Texas to near the Canadian border.  

At least 33 weather stations reported all-time record highs for the entire month of February.  Among them were 78 degrees in Des Moines, Iowa; 80 degrees in Omaha, Nebraska; 73 in Rockford, Illinois and 65 in Minneapolis.

At least six cities in Iowa reported all time record highs for February.

Dozens upon dozens of other cities reported record highs for the date on Monday. The hot windy weather spurred several major rangeland and wildfires in Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Kansas. 

The warm state of affairs continues today with more record highs expected in the Midwest and Northeast, possibly even here in Vermont. 

The record high for today in Burlington is 57 degrees and in Montpelier, it's 52. Both seem reachable today. 

Plus, we still have plenty of excitement in the Vermont forecast, including more record highs tomorrow, a little bit of flooding, strong winds, a huge crash in temperatures tomorrow night followed by another big warmup. 

Never a dull moment so let's get into it:

TODAY

Speaking of weird temperatures, we started the day out with some craziness. Some spots at dawn were warm, others chilly.  For instance, it was 41 degrees in Burlington at 7 a.m. but just 23 degrees in Montpelier. 

Burlington was exposed to increasing south winds while Montpelier was sheltered from those winds.

Temperatures will even out today and soar into the 50s amid gusty south winds and a fair amount of sunshine.  Essentially, we have a breezy late April day in store, even though it is only February. Go figure. 

It'll stay warm tonight - well above freezing - and some showers should move in late. Nothing heavy, though. The winds will continue to blow.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT

We're still expecting quite a lot of weather excitement tomorrow and tomorrow night around Vermont, as the forecasts issued yesterday haven't changed all that much. 

Expect lots of wind and warmth during Wednesday, with mostly light showers around. It still looks like there might be a lull in the showers during the afternoon. That could allow temperatures to really soar into the 60s if it stops raining long enough and if there are thin spots in the overcast.

In some favored locations the south winds in the afternoon could gust to 45 mph, which might cause a few little problems with tree branches and isolated power outages. 

That's still iffy, so we'll have to wait and see how that plays out. 

The sharp cold front will plow into Vermont Wednesday evening. Best guess on the timing is at around 7 p.m. or so west of the Green Mountains and 8 or 9 east.  (That timing could easily change one way or another).

The cold front will produce a burst of heavy rain and a blast of westerly wind gusts that could gust to 50 mph.  The snow that would have been melting off the mountains Wednesday, combined with the rain, still looks like it might produce minor flooding along some rivers. Or at least get them up to bank full. 

At this point, the rivers with the best chance of reaching flood stage appear to be the Otter Creek in Rutland County and the Mad River in central Vermont. 

While this potential high water will be going on Wednesday night, temperatures still look like they will absolutely crash. For instance, the National Weather Service has Burlington going from 56 degrees at 7 p.m. Wednesday to 20 degrees by 4 a.m. Thursday. 

There will only be a wee bit of snow at the tail end of this, but with the bottom dropping out of the temperatures overnight, expect water on roads and sidewalks to freeze solid by Thursday morning. Watch it on the roads and on the sidewalks if you're out early Thursday. 

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

A very quicky cold, blustery day on Thursday, but at least the sun will be back out. That's it for cold, though. A chilly Friday morning will yield to a fairly warm afternoon. The weekend and early next week bring us back to normal April weather, which of course is very weird for the beginning of March.

I hope that doesn't mean we get a series of snowstorms in late April! Or during the April 8 eclipse!  

"Daily Show" Takes On Climate Refuge Cities By Going To Duluth

"The Daily Show" poked affectionate fun at Duluth,
Minnesota being considered a "climate refuge"

Here in Vermont last summer, we learned the hard way that the Green Mountain State isn't quite the great climate change refuge it's been made out to be.  

Sure, we're in a safer spot than many areas, despite our flood risks.  A 2021 study that said six of the 10 safest counties from the ravages of climate in all of the United States are located in Vermont

I suppose that's still true, despite our floods. 

Other regions regarded as most safe from climate change are scattered around the Great Lakes. One of those safe places is Duluth, Minnesota. 

Ah yes, Duluth.  The place that until this winter anyway pretty much stayed below zero. Where the "gales of November" blast off to Lake Superior into the this city of 86,000 people.  Summers are nice, though. 

The Daily Show's Michael Kosta investigates the idea of climate refugees from fashionable zip codes in California and Florida showing up in unassuming Duluth to flee climate change driven wildfires and hurricanes and such. 

Kosta arrives in Duluth to play one of those elite coastal types who looks down on flyover cities like Duluth asking how people from, say California, would ever want to move to Duluth.

The Daily Show's Michael Kosta ventured to 
Duluth to see if the northern Minnesota city was
really a great climate refuge for coastal elites. 

The city's Chief Sustainability Officer Mindy Granley told Kosta that people from climate disaster prone places like California are already starting to move to Duluth. 

"You mean people are moving here from the good states,?" Kosta asks incredulously .

He then meets one of those California transplants. She tells Kosta that the small town feel of Duluth makes her feel like neighbors can rely on one another when climate change causes problems or even danger. 

Wait, I thought Duluth was a climate refuge?  

Like Vermont, Duluth isn't immune to our altered environment For one thing, Duluth is having a climate change winter, big time.  This will be by far its warmest winter on record, and that has messed up the usual winter sports such as snowshoeing, ice fishing and such in the region. 

Storms can ravage Duluth, too. Flash flooding September damaged parts of the city and an even worse flood in 2012 caused widespread damage in and around the city. An intense storm in October, 2018, sent Lake Superior waves crashing into shoreline parks and property causing quite a bit of destruction, too. 

Here's the Daily Show Duluth climate video. It is pretty funny, in the usual Daily Show snarky way. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: 

Nation's Weather Turns Toward The Wild; Vermont Gets A Piece Of That Too

There's little or no snow on the ground in many low
elevations in Vermont, like my yard in St. Albans. That's 
actually a good thing with the upcoming storm. More
snow melt would mean more water going into
rivers during the upcoming warm spell and rains.
Only local, minor flooding is expected so far. 

 For the past few weeks, wild, sometimes dangerous weather in the United States has mostly stayed confined to California, with their torrential rains and mudslides.

The quiet weather for most of the rest or us begins to end today. 

This week, the U.S. weather goes bonkers again, with widespread record warmth, a nearly as widespread zone of high winds and fire risks, and a little severe weather again. Oh, and some crazy temperature swings. 

We in Vermont will participate in some of that. More in a moment. 

BIG PICTURE

A strong storm is beginning to gather in the Plains today. It should consolidate Tuesday in or near Illinois before heading off through the Great Lakes and into western Quebec by Wednesday. 

Out ahead of the storm, a burst of record warm air will surge into a large area of the Plains and Midwest. Behind it, a very quick shot of Arctic air blasts in.  

You want changeable weather? You got it in this region.  Here's a sort of example forecast I found for Yankton, in southeastern South Dakota.

They're forecasting a high of 74 degrees there today, which is very likely an all time high for the month of February. Tomorrow, temperatures will be falling through the 20s into the teens during the day with some scattered snow.  But by the end of the week, Yankton will be back to basking in record highs close to 70.

You'll need to forgive the fine folks of Yankton if they get dizzy from these extreme temperature swings. 

All around this mess of temperature gyrations is a lot of wind. And dry weather. Fire alerts extend from El Paso, Texas north to Iowa and South Dakota. 

To the west of all this, winter storm warnings for snow are scattered through wide areas of the Rockies. To the east of the storm, severe weather and perhaps a tornado or two are in store for parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

A weak disturbance passing by probably created a few snow flurries earlier in spots across northern Vermont, but that was departing, and we'll end up with a partly sunny, mild Monday, with readings getting up into the low 40s.

Springlike Warmth

Things start to get interesting tomorrow as the warm air ahead of the storm really takes over. Highs will get well into the 50s, maybe close to 60 in one or two warmer spots. That threatens record highs for the date. The record high in Burlington, for instance is 57 degrees, with a forecast high of 55, so it'll be close. 

Tuesday night will stay very mild, holding in the 40s. 

Then things get a little weirder. At least for late February.

Before we go on, note that the forecast could change with this storm.  But what follows is the scenario that meteorologists think will happen in and near Vermont:

Waves of showers should start later Tuesday night and Wednesday with the storm's warm front. There might be a break in the showers during the day Wednesday. If that happens, it will get pretty windy, and perhaps very warm. 

The winds will gust past 40 mph in some spots, giving us the risk of isolated power outages and downed tree limbs. It won't be nearly as bad as those wind storms in January, however. 

Where winds blow downward along the slopes of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks, the sinking air could warm even further, so there might be some local surprises with high temperatures. 

This weather situation reminds me of February 25, 2017, where an approaching cold front caused the same sort of winds. The temperature that day soared to 72 degrees in Burlington, which is by far the warmest on record for the month of February. 

We will not get to 72 degrees with this one, but if the setup does turn out to be similar to 2017, I can see the Champlain Valley at least warming into the low or even mid 60s. Time will tell on that. If it stays cloudier and rainier than I think it will Wednesday afternoon, it will be a little cooler than that. 

The Cold Front 

When the storm's strong cold front blows through Wednesday night, you'll know it. 

It'll have a burst of heavy rain and downpours, fairly strong wind gusts, maybe a rumble or two of thunder. Then temperatures will crash. If you like drama, this is your kind of cold front. 

We're actually lucky there's not much snow on the ground. The unseasonably warm, humid weather ahead of the front, the showers, then the downpours would probably cause quite a lot of flooding if there were plenty of snow to melt. 

As it is, all rivers in the region should sharply rise Wednesday night, and a few, like perhaps the Mad River or Otter Creek, could reach minor flood stage. We'll need to keep an eye on that. 

Temperatures will go from the 50s Wednesday evening to the teens to around 20 by dawn Thursday.  The cold front this past Friday night and Saturday morning was similar, except it didn't have any rain or snow along it. So we didn't have to deal with a flash freeze.

This time looks different. There should be a little snow at the tail end of the precipitation early Thursday morning. And all that water from the rain should freeze.  That'll make things tricky on the roads early that day. 

Beyond The Storm

After a windy, rather cold day Thursday, with highs in the upper teens to mid 20s, another big warm up starts Friday. This will be another very quick coldish snap.  More springlike warmth, maybe with near record high temperatures, should start Sunday and last into next week. 

Of course, expect updates from me tomorrow and Wednesday, as there will probably be adjustments to the forecast.  At least the weather will be interesting this week, right?

Two Cool Satellite Photos, One Of Them For Us In Vermont

A satellite view of the Pacific Ocean Friday shows
two graceful looking storms and a giant number 7
between British Columbia and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. 

 I'm always fascinated by satellite photos showing how clouds behave, and how the landscape below the clouds change with the season, or change with different weather.  

There's two cool examples here. 

LUCKY #7

The first was taken Friday over the Pacific Ocean. The two storm are interesting enough as they are. 

Both of them - one off the California coast, another larger one northwest of Hawaii, feature two graceful cold fronts hanging south and southwestward from the  main storm. 

As you can see, most of the northern Pacific Ocean is cloudy in the photo, except for the giant number 7 shaped area of clear skies. That's what everybody honed in on the most. It didn't signify any particular weather, other than a gap between storms, but it was a pretty unusual pattern nonetheless. 

The storm to the right of the seven looks vaguely like a six, so I guess the Pacific Ocean was in a 76 mood on Friday. Whatever that means.  Seventy-six more storms to hit the West Coast before spring? California certainly hopes not. 

BIRD'S EYE VIEW, END OF WINTER 

Visible satellite photo from Saturday afternoon shows
an unseasonable lack of show in the valleys of 
western Vermont, not a great snow cover elsewhere,
and if you look closely, very little ice in the lakes. 

The second photo is much closer to home. It was taken Saturday afternoon, a rare crystal clear day during such an overcast winter. 

Again click on the photo to make it bigger and easier to see. 

First, you can see the paltry snow cover for this time of year in and around Vermont. 

The Champlain Valley and the southeastern tip of Vermont are devoid of snow.   The snow does cover most of the rest of Vermont, but it looks weak, like there's plenty of bare spots in the low elevations.

Ice on Lake Champlain should be peaking by now, but it still shows dark blue in the visible satellite photo, indicating a serious lack of ice. 

You can also see the eastern end of Lake Ontario, the Finger Lakes in western New York. a fairly big chunk of Lake Winnipesaukee (SP) in New Hamphire and Sebago Lake in Maine all free of ice.

The only parts of the satellite photo that looks normal for this time of year is north of the St. Lawrence River in Canada. There, we see frozen lakes and what appears to be a pretty substantial snow cover. 

The lame snow cover in New England should retreat further this week during yet another expected warm spell. Following a brief return to winter Thursday and Friday, more premature spring weather seems due. 

Joe's Pond Ice Out Contest Underway In Vermont. Maybe Bet Early?

It was 70 degrees on April 15 last year and the block that
indicates when the Joe's Pond ice hadn't fallen through.
The official ice out came on April 17, 2023. Photo
from the Joe's Pond Association. 

 I'm not a gambling man, but I'm willing to give a little advice on the subject anyway.  

If you're entering the annual Vermont Joe's Pond Ice Out Contest, bet on an early date. 

Joe's Pond is a beautiful, rather high elevation body of water in West Danville, Vermont, up in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Every spring, it's the subject of a popular guessing game and gamble: When will the ice break on the pond?  Thousands of dollars are at stake. 

The ice out contest started in 1987 as friends wanted to bet on when the ice would dissolve on the pond. To make the bet work, they had to device an exacting system to tell when the ice broke.

We'll let the folks at Joe's Pond take the explanation from here:

"After considerable discussion, they settled on a simple, low-tech control system: They places a well-used electric clock on Homer Fitt's deck and tethered it to a cinder block wired to a wooden pallet placed 100 feet out on the ice. That was it. 

The clock was checked twice daily in the morning and evening. When the block went down the clock was disconnected stopping at the 'official' ice-out time. Whoever guessed closest to the date a time the clock stopped won the contest."

That old electric clock has since been replaced by a weather proof timepiece  the location where the block is placed on the ice has changed a little. But everything else has remained the same with the contest since its inception. 

The contest has gotten huge. In 1990, about 1,500 people entered. Nowadays, a good 12,000 people buy ice out tickets, which cost $1 apiece. Half the proceeds go to the winner and the other half goes to the Joe's Pond Association. The Association uses the money for water quality programs and for events around the pond. 

Meanwhile, the winner will take home about $5,000.

 As I've extensively documented, this has been a remarkably toasty winter, and has an excellent shot at becoming the warmest winter on record. Which means the ice has not gotten thick on Joe's Pond. Plus, we haven't had a huge amount of snow. 

Deep snow atop Joe's Pond ice would insulate it from the warming rays of the late winter and early spring sun. 

The earliest ice outs on Joe's Pond don't necessarily follow the very warmest winters.  Before this year, the warmest winter on record was 2015-16. The ice broke that spring at 5:04 p.m. April 12, 2016. That was definitely an earlier than average ice out, but not THE earliest.

Those honors go to 2010, when the ice broke at 2:46 p.m on April 5.  

The winter of 2010 was a rather mild winter. But what really broke the ice was weather in early spring and especially the opening few days of April.

At St. Johnsbury - the nearest major weather station to Joe's Pond - mid-March featured a week of consecutive days in the 50s and 60s, which got the spring thaw going in earnest. 

Then, on April 2-4, a record early season heat wave hit, with daily highs those days in St. Johnsbury at 77, 84 and 83.  

The second earliest ice out was on April 8, 2012. Again it was a warm winter, but what really made the ice go out early was a week long, unprecedented record heat wave from March 18 through 23 that brought temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s. 

I think we can see some tell-tale signs of climate change in Joe's Pond ice out dates, even though records only go back to 1988.

In the past 23 years, since 2000, the ice has only broken up on or after May 1 just three times, the most recent being in 2018. In the dozen years before 2000, the ice waited until on or after May 1 to break up on five occasions - nearly half the time. 

The latest ice break up on Joe's Pond was at 1:19 p.m. May 6, 1992.

As noted, this year, I expect an early ice out on Joe's Pond.  Not only have we experienced a warm winter, but now the end of February and the early part of March look very torchy in Vermont .In other words, aside for a couple cold days thrown in, it appears at least part of March will bring near record temperatures and melting ice. 

There's no telling what happens later in March and whatever part of April the ice holds on Joe's Pond. But I virtually guarantee we won't wait until May to see ice out. 

Beyond telling you the ice out will be early, I'm going to shut up about the rest of my Joe's Pond theories for 2024. After all, I purchased Joe's Pond Ice Out tickets, too, and I don't want to share my strategy.   

Canadian "Zombie Fires" Continue To Burn; Are A Threat When Spring Arrives

An underground "zombie fire" burns amid winter conditions
in northwestern Canada. These are fires from last summer
that are still burning underground. They pose a renewed
threat wen things dry out in the spring 

 Remember all those awful Canadian wildfires last spring and summer? The ones that sent choking smoke and haze southward into the United States, including Vermont?

Guess what? Some of them are still burning. 

Dozens of fires in British Columbia and Alberta have gone underground for the winter. 

They're feeding on peat and other material dried out in recent droughts. This despite frigid winter temperatures and some snow cover. 

They're been called "zombie fires" and represent new threats in the spring, when the snow melts and the ground dries out. 

According to CBC:

"There are still 92 active fires in British Columbia and another 54 in Alberta - holdovers from last year - according to the latest figures from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. Others are also active in the Northwest Territories, experts said."

Nearby residents have reported wisps of smoke coming from the ground and the forest even during Arctic weather - which by the way has been less common than normal in much of Canada. 

What happens with the fires come spring of course depends greatly on the weather. A cool, wet spring and summer would be ideal, of course. But recent history in Canada under the scourge of climate change suggests those seasons are becoming more likely warm and dry. 

Ominously, drought conditions continue in the areas of British Columbia and Alberta were most of the zombie fires are still smoldering. 

All this could re-invigorate those zombie fires. CBC again: 

"Research suggests such fires are becoming more common as the climate warms. The hot, dry conditions that contribute to powerful wildfires during the summer can lead to deep burning in carbon rich soils like peat. 

In such cases, a fire can simmer underground for days, weeks or even months after the flames subside."

Researchers who study overwinter or "zombie fires" say the large number of them this winter is something that is unprecedented in Canada. But then again, so were the big wildfires last year. 

The bottom line is that nobody really knows how many of these fires will re-ignite in the spring. We'll just need to wait and see. 

 

Vermont Roller Coaster Weather Underway, Will Continue, With Substantial Storm Midweek

Mid-winter style cold this morning in St. Albans, Vermont,
but not exactly a mid winter look to the landscape as
previous warmth this winter as severely
limited the snow cover.  That lack of snow cover
will help prevent temperatures from getting
even colder than forecast tonight. 

As advertised previous, we've entered roller coaster weather season here in Vermont, and that will continue indefinitely.  

We'll also throw into the mix the real possibility of the first substantial storm we've had in a month. But it will NOT be a snow lovers kind of storm that's for sure. 

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Today is a far cry from yesterday, when a burst of sunshine after some early morning precipitation brought us well into the 40s for highs on Friday. 

Sugaring season is clearly starting early. I noticed a tanker truck collecting sap yesterday at the sugaring operation next door to my St. Albans, Vermont home. 

Sugaring is definitely on hiatus today and tomorrow as Arctic air has swept in.  On paper, today won't seem that cold. In Burlington, we had a high of 29 at 12:01 a.m. today, and it will go into the upper single numbers by midnight tonight. 

That combination will go down in the records as just slightly colder than normal.

It's the timing of this sharp, brief cold blast that is making us really feel it, because the worst of the chill will happen during the day today. It was down to a couple degrees other side of 10 degrees by 7 a.m. today in northern Vermont. 

Temperatures won't rise much at all by this afternoon, despite the attempts by the late February sun to warm things up.  Plus, the wind. Don't forget the wind. The northerly gusts all day will continue to keep wind chills below zero. 

Tonight, temperatures will fall to within a few degrees either side of zero. Clear skies and diminishing winds are perfect ingredients for temperatures to bottom out, but two factors will keep it from getting as cold as it could.

For one thing, snow cover is lacking, especially in the broader valleys. Fresh, deep snow, normally common this time of  year, tends to help temperatures on clear winter nights to really crash. But that's not happening.

Also, the core of the coldest air from Canada will already be departing after midnight, so that will keep temperatures from really getting ridiculous.

EARLY WEEK

Sunday will as I like to say, warm up cold. Temperatures will rocket upward in our roller coaster regime from near zero to low 30s by afternoon. Gusty south winds will make it seem colder, though.

A weak disturbance will probably throw down a handful of snowflakes Sunday night and Monday as temperatures continue to warm. It'll be in the balmy low 40s by Monday afternoon.

MIDWEEK EXCITEMENT

The roller coaster keeps going upward Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong storm moves through the Midwest.  That seems destined to produce possibly the first real severe storm and tornado outbreak of the season in the Midwest and South by midweek.

For us, the storm should bring a fetch of very warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico all the way up to New England. High temperatures well into the 50s both Tuesday and Wednesday should really start to melt whatever snow we have out there. The high humidity for this time of year will also keep nighttime temperatures far above freezing and accelerate any snow melt.

Long range forecasts, if accurate, would keep us in 
the Northeast toasty and springlike in the
first week of March. 

 It's been a very dry February so far, but the final couple days of the month could change that.  The cold front with this storm has the potential to bring us some heavy rains Wednesday. 

The National Weather Service says it's too soon to tell for sure, but the midweek rains have the potential to cause minor flooding in Vermont, so here we go again with that.  It's not as if we haven't had enough flooding in the past year, right?

As you can tell already, anybody wishing for a late season dump of snow will be sorely disappointed with the midweek storm. There could be a tiny big of snow at the very end of the storm but don't hold your breath. 

MORE ROLLER COASTER

The roller coaster races on at the end of the week, bringing us back down to rather cold temperatures Thursday and Friday. It won't be nearly as cold as today, but it will still feel winterish. After that, preliminary signs point to more unseasonable springlike warmth following that late week chill. 

Long range forecasts are always iffy, but still, all signs still point to a very warm start to March. 

Rare South Atlantic Tropical Storm Off Coast Of Brazil

Satellite view of rare Tropical Storm Akara last Sunday
off the coast of Brazil 

The other day,  I told you about how forecasters are concerned that there might be a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean later this year.  

All those potential hurricanes would be in the North Atlantic, meaning north of the Equator. 

Meanwhile, below the Equator, a rare tropical storm blossomed this past Sunday in the South Atlantic. Tropical Storm Akará formed about 300 miles southeast of São Paolo.

As tropical storms go, Akará wasn't huge. It had top sustained winds of just 40 mph, just a little above the threshold to be considered a tropical storm. 

However, tropical storms are extreme rare off the coast of Brazil in the South Atlantic. Occasionally, you'll see a subtropical storm, which has characteristics of both a tropical storm and a regular storm.  A tropical storm has a warm core, fueled only by heat energy released from evaporation off of very warm ocean waters. 

 A regular storm has a cold core, fed by contrasts between warm air to the south and cold air to the north.  A subtropical storm usually is a cold core storm that encounters warm ocean water and begins to take on some - but not all - of the characteristics of a tropical storm.

As Yale Climate Connections reports, you get one or two subtropical storms in the South Atlantic each year. But Akará was only the third purely tropical storm off the coast of Brazil since at least 2010.

Ocean currents usually keep the South Atlantic too cool for purely tropical storms to develop. But sea surface temperatures where Akará formed were warmer than average - around 79 degrees - and that's barely warm enough for a tropical storm to get its act together. 

Yale Climate Connections reported that until around 2000, it was thought that subtropical or tropical storms couldn't form in the South Atlantic. That was mostly because upper level winds there blow wannabe storms apart before they can ramp up. 

But in 2004, an actual hurricane hit Brazil, causing three deaths and a lot of damage. Scientists then reviewed old satellite images and concluded that - at least in the era of satellites - subtropical storms do form off the coast of Brazil.

The history of pure tropical storms is more murky. So we can't really say whether everybody just missed tropical activity off the coast of Brazil over the decades, or oceans there have warmed up enough to support tropical storms and hurricanes. 

As for Akará, it moved south into colder waters and dissipated earlier this week. 

 

Vermont Thin Ice Danger: Even "Reliable" Lakes Dangerous; Family Rescued On Lake Memphremagog

This is a still from a Newport Police body cam as officer
Tanner Jacobs raced to help rescue a three year old
who fell through the ice with his family on 
Lake Mempremagog last Saturday. 

 In what looks to be a record or near-record warm winter, even "safe" Vermont lake ice isn't so safe.

This was demonstrated on Lake Memphremagog near Newport along the Canadian border in the Northeast Kingdom.  

The Associated Press reports on this dramatic rescue:

A 3-year-old fell through ice on Lake Memphremagog in northern Vermont with two adults and and another child on a side-by-side recreational vehicle over the weekend and was later hospitalized, Newport Police said Tuesday.

By the time police responded Saturday evening, the four were out of the water, and three people ran toward the officers pulling a sled carrying a man doing chest compressions on the 3-year-old, police said in a statement. 

Officers pulled the sled to shore while the man continued the chest compressions. Rescue crews met them at the shore and provided aid to the child, who was taken to North Country Hospital."

The three others who fell through the ice suffered from hyperthermia and exhaustion but have recovered. 

The child was later transferred to the University of Vermont Medical Center and has a long road ahead for recovery, the AP reported. 

The Newport Dispatch said the four who fell through the ice were on a family ice fishing excursion when the incident happened. The three year old was on a ventilator but there is some cautious optimism concerning the boy's health.  

There is a GoFundMe set up to help cover the family's medical expenses. Updates on that page indicate the boy is improving but is not entirely out of the woods yet. 

DANGEROUS ICE

Lake ice across Vermont has been dangerous thin to nonexistent all winter due to the one-two punch of El Nino and climate change. El Nino tends to make our winters warmer in Vermont most of the time, accentuating an overall trend toward warmer conditions in an altered climate. 

This is true even on traditionally "safe" lakes - ones that are small, have relatively shallow water or are in colder regions of the state. 

Most of Lake Memphremagog, which straddles the Vermont/Quebec border, usually has ice that's a good foot thick by mid-February.  That's generally considered safe enough to drive a pickup truck on. 

Not this year.  Before I go on, I'm absolutely not blaming the family involved for going out on the ice. It's very normal to go out on that lake an ice fish in February. What isn't normal is the degree to which ice is terrible this year. 

Newport Police Officer Tanner Jacobs, the first cop on the scene, told WPTZ-TV the spot where the family fell through only had ice about 1.5 inches thick.  Jacobs also emphasized the family did nothing wrong. Ice should  have been much thicker in that spot, but this winter's freeze/thaw and more thaw cycles messed that. 

If anything, any remaining lake ice across Vermont is about to get worse. It was warm Thursday and today. After a quick cold snap, it's going to get even warmer than it's been.

Even if it finally turns colder in March, the sun angle is now increasing.  Even on chilly days, some of the ice can melt or soften during the day, especially if it's sunny.  

I would pretty much guarantee next winter will be colder in Vermont than this one has been. But the general trend toward warmer winters and thinner lake ice will make the traditions of ice fishing and other cold season recreation on the states lakes and ponds ever more risky as the years go by.  

 

Phone/ Internet Outages NOT Caused By Solar Flare; Also Illustrates Why You Should Have Alternate Ways To Get Weather Warnings

 Well, Thursday was a real mess with phones and the internet, wasn't it?

Phone outages across the U.S. especially with carrier
AT&T, probably weren't caused by solar flares and
highlight the need to have backup ways 
to receive needed information.

Most wireless providers have reported outages today, with the most apparently suffered by AT&T.  

There was all kind of speculation as to what went wrong. In the end, it was some sort of system expansion and upgrade that went awry. It wasn't a cyber attack, which is nice.   

I did see speculation all day Thursday that it was a solar flare.  While some scientists say it's possible, many meteorologists and others strongly doubted that this was the cause.  

Those meteorologists were right. 

It's true that there were two big solar flares early Thursday.  I guess first we should figure out what a solar flare is.  As always, NASA is most helpful. 

According to NASA: "A solar flare is an intense burst of radiation coming from the release of magnetic energy associated with sunspots. Flares are our solar system's largest explosive events. They are seen as bright areas on the sun and they can last from minutes to hours."

Large solar flares can mess up electrical grids and cause other issues here on Earth, but that kind of thing is rare. 

 It's true that the solar flares happened at about the same time the phone outages hit. But correlation is not necessarily cause, as I'm sure you've heard before. It was probably just strange timing. 

As Space.com reports:

"Some solar scientists have cast doubts on claims that there is a connection between the two events. 'Flares only cause radio degradation on the 'dayside' of the Earth......the U.S. was not affected by the event, So it's just coincidence,' solar astrophysicist Ryan French at the National Solar Observatory posted on X."

 The solar flare probably did cause some radio outages over the Pacific Ocean, but those problems are unrelated to U.S. phone issues. 

COMMUNICATION BREAKDOWN

This all started in the early morning hours Thursday and lasted a good part of the day. a  It affected a lot of people, even those who are not experiencing outages.

For instance ,I had to cancel an online session with someone Thursday afternoon.  I could get to the person I was trying to reach, but she could not reach me. Luckily, this was a non-critical meeting. 

I can't say that for every situation going on today. In some cities, like San Francisco, people couldn't even call 911. The San Francisco Fire Department released this alert:

"We are actively engaged and monitoring this. The San Francisco 911 center is still operational. If you are an AT&T customer and cannot get through to 911, then please try calling from a landline. If that is not an option then please try to get ahold of a friend of family member who is a customer of a different carrier and ask them to call 911 on your behalf. Do not call or text 911 to simply test your phone service."

Well, yeah, who the hell has land lines these days? Especially in techy San Francisco? By the time you get ahold of a friend to relay a message to 911, it would also probably be too late. 

All this is to say and emphasize that if you ever need weather warnings, make sure you have more than one way to receive those warnings. 

Luckily, there was very little in the way of severe weather anywhere in the United States Thursday. But if there was any kind of dangerous weather, chances are that app on your phone wouldn't be able to mention the tornado or flash flood headed right toward your house. At least no today, with all that service trouble. 

That's why a back up, like a weather radio, or even just a local television or radio station would provide the alert instead. 

If you had these at the ready, that is. 

It's a reminder to all of us not to get overly dependent on one thing. Didn't your mother tell you not to put all your eggs in one basket?

Vermont In The Throes Of March-Like Yo-Yo Weather Pattern

Sunset Tuesday in St. Albans, Vermont, just before a 
shift from wintry cold to warmth in Vermont. We'll
go back and forth with temperatures the next
few days, too. 

Given that we really haven't had much of a winter, it's fitting that a typical March pattern is hitting before the third month of the year even hits.  

That weather pattern involves some seriously yo-yoing temperatures for us. Along with abruptly changing skies and precipitation risks. 

On Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, and to an extent Thursday morning, temperatures in Vermont fell to the single numbers either side of zero. Not super cold for February, but still the coldest weather since the third week in January. 

That was followed by a gorgeous Thursday afternoon with sunshine and readings near 40 degrees. 

One sign of spring popped up unexpectedly this morning, as a couple lightning strikes appeared between Massena, New York and Ottawa, Canada. Those showers and storms that included mixed precipitation were heading deeper into Canada by 8 a.m. and  for the most part won't affect us here in Vermont. 

Maybe a sprinkle later today, but that's it. 

But warmth and wind will get us today. Especially in the Champlain Valley, where gusts could reach 35 mph amid temperatures in the low 40s.

Tonight, it'll start to rain lightly, then in many areas that will transition to wet snow. There's that variable weather again. Where it snows, it won't amount to much. The warmer valleys might stay as a cold, light rain or mix of raindrops and snowflakes. 

Another slightly showery, but decidedly warm day hits Friday, with readings once again near 40.

WEEKEND

Then the bottom drops out of the temperatures. Pretty much the sharpest cold front of the winter will come through Friday night. It won't have too much in the way of snow showers with it, but boy, you will feel the change in the air. 

Amid strong, gusty northwest winds, temperatures will be in the single digits by Saturday morning and not rise much during the day. Those blustery northwest winds will continue all day, making Saturday a candidate for the most wintry day in what has almost been the winter that wasn't.

Forecasters are quite confident March will get off
to a warm start in the Northeast, including 
here in Vermont. 

If you think that real winter if finally, belatedly hitting on Saturday, think again.  Saturday night, temperatures will only fall a little to a few degrees either side of zero as the core of the cold air zips on out of here. 

By Sunday afternoon, we'll be back in the low to mid 30s and by the middle of next week, we'll see some balmy 40s to low 50s as it looks now. 

Here's another, not welcome sign of spring: Meteorologists are already beginning to look at a possible first substantial severe storm and tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast Tuesday and Wednesday. 

That's not set in stone yet, but it's a sign of a changing season.  We won't see any severe weather here in Vermont, but those warm temperatures during the middle of next week might  not be the end of it. 

Long range forecasts are iffy, but if this one is true, we're under a torch for the opening week of March, with readings possibly far above normal for that time of year.