Vermont To Be In Middle Of Wide Ranging Storm, But Avoiding Worst Effects Of It

Satellite photo shows the immense storm system spreading
bad weather from southern Canada, through the 
Great Lakes, down the entire East Coast on into Florida.

 I'm impressed by what a huge area of real estate an already large building storm is covering in the eastern half of the nation. 

I'm also impressed by the wide variety of often dangerous weather it's creating. 

Tornadoes, floods, high winds, coastal flooding and heavy snow are all part of this storm, affecting areas from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan to Florida. 

The storm will roar right over Vermont tonight.  But aside from some local instances of strong, gusty winds and enough rain to make a few rivers come close to flood stage, we should be pretty much OK. More on that in a moment. 

Let's visit a few of the hot (and cold!) spots with this storm.

FLORIDA

The vast storm's cold front is pushing into Florida and causing a bout of severe weather. A tornado in Palm Beach, Florida yesterday tossed cars around and damaged buildings. The threat continues all day today, and eventually extends northward to the Carolinas. 

UPPER MICHIGAN

The circulation around this storm goes all the way up and off the East Coast into southeastern Canada and then southward into the western Great Lakes.

As this happens, cold air is getting pulled into the circulation.  So is moisture. Combined with water off of  Lake Superior, six to as much as two FEET  of snow are in the forecast for the northern Michigan and far northern Wisconsin. 

This isn't the latest snow they've ever gotten, but it's a pretty big winter storm for so late in the season.  That cold air will eventually wrap all the way around to the central Appalachians, so higher elevations of West Virginia could also end up with several inches of snow. 

MID-ATLANTIC

Parts of New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland have received two to as much as five inches of rain already, and another shot of heavy rain is forecast to come through today. Water is already high, so it won't take much to set off some flooding. 

On top of all that, stiff east winds are pushing waters onto shore, so a coastal flood advisory is up for many of these areas during high tides today. 

NEW HAMPSHIRE/MAINE

A fire hose of moisture with this storm will come in off the Atlantic Ocean tonight and slam into the White Mountains and the mountains of western Maine. The moisture train, forced to rise up the slopes of those mountains, will unleash torrential rains. 

As much as five inches of rain could fall on this region by Monday morning.  Brooks coming off the steep slopes of those mountains can easily become raging torrents.  I'd be a bit nervous if I lived right next to a river in much of New Hampshire and southwestern Maine. 

VERMONT

Compared to a lot of areas, the Green Mountain State is in a bit of a sweet spot to avoid the worst of the weather. Still, we have some minor hazards to look forward to. And then, an extended period of cool, showery weather lasting all week.

We will be subject to that fire hose of moisture coming off the Atlantic, but it will have lost some of its steam by the time in reaches as far inland as Vermont. Still, the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains could easily see one to a much as a little more than two inches of rain by tomorrow. 

This will trigger rises in the rivers and maybe some low land wet spots. But it doesn't look like it will be quite enough to create a lot of flooding. Still, some rivers could go to bank full, and perhaps a couple low lying roads could get covered by water. 

As the blast of air rises up and over the Green Mountains this evening and overnight,  it will gain momentum flowing down the west slopes of the Green Mountains later today and tonight.  Most of the wind won't be too bad, with highest gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range likely in much of western Vermont.

However, there will probably be some isolated pockets that go way above that, with a very few places possibly going over 60 mph.  These are the usual suspect places. Like very localized spots near Danby, Mendon, Ripton, Hanksville, and pockets of Underhill, Cambridge, perhaps up toward Bakersfield. 

I expect a few power outages, but nothing super widespread. 

We might even get some peeks of sun tomorrow afternoon behind the main weather front with this storm. But it still looks like the storm will essentially stall over the Great Lakes, northern New England and southern Ontario and Quebec through most of the week. 

We won't get all that much rain between Tuesday and Friday, but chilly winds, very frequent showers and cooler than normal temperatures will make it feel quite raw.

There might even be a hint of snow on the highest mountain peaks. Don't worry though, pleasant spring weather will come back eventually. We'll just have to wait a bit for it. 

The Spring Gloom Returns To Vermont Today, Will Last Days

Some last glimpses of blue sky and sun shining on the
other side of Lake Champlain as viewed from St.
Albans, Vermont this morning. A long spell of 
showery, dreary spring weather is about to start.

Last Sunday in this here blog thingy, I told you we were in for several days of unsettled weather.

That's just what happened, although there was some welcome sunshine between the showers Tuesday through Thursday. 

All that "meh" weather passed by Friday, and it was a gorgeous day. 

Now, history is about to repeat itself. This time it looks like we'll have several days that will probably be even rainier and cloudier than last week. 

This all starts today. With a bit of irony. 

Despite the fact a warm front is moving in, it will be cooler than it was under Friday's sunshine. Warm fronts aren't always warm, I guess. That's because any last glimpses of blue sky and sunshine early this morning will give way to clouds and showers.  The lack of sun will keep the temperatures down. 

Rain will start creeping in this morning, and by early to mid-afternoon, pretty much all of us will see some rain. You'll notice a southeasterly wind pick up today, too, adding to the rawness of the afternoon. 

Sunday isn't looking great, either, but it won't necessarily be a washout. There will be showers around, but we'll probably see some decent sized breaks between the rains.  But it will stay mostly cloudy and cool. And many areas will be kind of windy.  Not a glorious spring day by any means. 

MAIN EVENT

The main drama comes through later Sunday, Sunday night into Monday. One storm over the Great Lakes and a new, nor'easter type storm near the coast will both cause a good spell of wind and rain here in the Green Mountain State.  This is a fairly strong storm for so late in the season. But hey! At least it isn't a snowstorm, right?

One thing meteorologists are watching with this thing is something known as a low level jet. That's a packet of very strong winds several thousand feet overhead.

As lighter, lower level winds go up and over the Green Mountains from the southeast, the downward motion of winds flowing descending the slopes of the western Greens can grab some this high speed air from above and bring it to the surface.

The result is strong, sometimes damaging winds.  This kind of thing caused the destructive windstorm in Vermont around Christmas.

This time, it won't be nearly as bad. Not even close. But still, winds later Sunday and Sunday night could be locally strong along parts of the western slopes. Leaves are starting to come onto some of the trees in lower elevations. Those leaves, acting like little sails, can make it more likely for trees to fall over,.

Forecasters aren't sure how much wind will mix down from above, so there are no wind advisories or anything like that.  They're just keeping an eye on it. I suppose there will be a few isolated problems with power lines. Again, this will fall well short of the Christmas storm, and those two winter storms in March, thank goodness. 

This low level jet will also bring in lots of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. Rain could fall pretty heavily Sunday night, especially along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. 

At this point, it doesn't look like we'll have enough rain to cause any real flooding. But rivers will sharply rise and water could pool in low lying areas. There's not enough of a risk to trigger any kind of flood watches, at least for now, but again, meteorologists are keeping an eye on it. 

The National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center does have much of Vermont in a marginal risk zone for localized flash floods. That's the lowest level of alert on a five-point scale. 

I imagine this rain will bring Lake Champlain closer to its 100-foot minor flood stage. I don't think the lake will get to that flood stage, but it might be close. But the water won't get high enough to cause anything other than high-ish water near the shoreline and some splash over with waves if it gets windy.

NEXT WEEK

During last week's spell of unsettled weather, the center of the storminess that brought our showers was pretty far off to our northwest. Because of that, we managed to get some sun mixed with the showers, so the weather wasn't all that bad.

This week, we're going to settle into a similar setup,  but the stagnant, stalled storm system will park itself closer to Vermont than last week's did. Although we can't rule out some peeks of sun, the coming week is looking cloudier, with more frequent showers than what we had last week.   

The weather pattern is stuck, and it will take awhile for it to pull itself together and start moving again. It might be Friday or beyond before the weather improves to any great extent. 

 

Sea Levels Rising Faster Along Southern U.S. Coast Than Elsewhere

"Sunny day flooding" at high tides in Florida and the 
Gulf Coast are becoming more frequent as sea level
is rising much faster in the Gulf of Mexico than 
in most other places. 

 We all know sea levels worldwide are rising due to climate change. Glaciers are melting, ice is thawing in Greenland, parts of Antarctica are also seeing weird thaws.  

One thing that's not really intuitive is that sea levels don't rise at the same pace all over the world. Some places see faster rises, and in other places it's meh. 

This has to do with how fast the ocean is warming in a particular location, whether ocean currents are changing and whether land along the coast is actually sinking. 

Which brings us to the coastline of the South, mostly involving the Gulf of Mexico. 

A recent studies by has indicated that sea levels there really jumped ahead in recent years. Water levels along the Gulf Coast have risen by nearly five inches since 2010.  That's more than double the world wide average.

One of the studies was authored by Jianjun Yin, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona.

Five inches doesn't sound like much, but in flat coastal areas, it can mean a big difference. Especially during powerful storms. As the Washington Post explains: 

"Yin's study suggested that Hurricanes Michael and Ian, two of the strongest storms ever to hit the United States, were made considerably worse in part from additional sea level rise. 

'It turns out that the water level associated with Hurricane Ian was the highest on record due to the combined effect of sea-level rise and storm surge, ' Yin said." 

This will continue to be a problem as hurricanes inevitably keep smashing into the Gulf coastline and southeastern United States. Meanwhile, for some reason, people are still moving in droves to high risk places in the South. 

What happens when the water gets deeper. Some of these properties will end up below water. Or become so prone to storm damage that they lose their value. Which also means coastal cities will lose chunks of their tax bases.

Part of the problem with Gulf Coast sea level rise is that land along coastal areas in Texas and Louisiana have also been sinking. That hasn't been nearly a big a problem in most of Florida, but the rapid sea level rise in the Gulf still spells trouble for the Sunshine State.

The studies only go back a little more than a dozen years, so scientists still don't know if this rapid uptick is just a blip in geological time or a worsening long term trend. 

The Gulf of Mexico has warmed up a lot over the past decade. Warmer water expands, which could explain much the surge in Gulf water levels.  Climate change will keep putting upward pressure on water temperatures, but we don't know if the pace of that warming will stay the same as in recent years. 

The studies also indicate sea level rise is much faster than the worldwide average along the southeast Atlantic coast as far north as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. 

Whatever happens, sea levels will keep rising for the foreseeable future worldwide at varying paces due to climate change. Some will have it worse than others, apparently. 

 

"Gorilla Hail" In Texas And Florida (!!) Was A Winter Wonderland On Wednesday

An example of the "gorilla hail" that fell in
Texas on Wednesday. 

So, I'll start with a helluva bad pun:  It's been a hail of a week in the South. 

Especially in Texas and Florida.  

 Giant hailstones bombarded many areas of the Lone Star State Wednesday Thursday. Some balls of ice were as big as grapefruits. There were plenty of reports of hail the size of baseballs and softballs. Play ball! 

Or better, yet, file an insurance claim.

The drama started in central Texas and the state's panhandle on Tuesday. Perhaps the worst hit town was Sweetwater, where giant stones broke windows, smashed cars, and broke windshields on many of the city's ambulances and police cars.

On Wednesday, some of the so-call "gorilla hail"  hit populated areas around Waco, so I imagine there's going to be a TON of insurance claims.  We don't yet have an estimated dollar amount of damage. That'll take some time.

Video showed damaged cars with holes blown through windshields and windows blown out of houses by wind-driven hail.  It appears a tornado also likely touched down in the Waco area. 

Florida was pummeled by hail Wednesday, too

This sort of looks like a neighborhood in
Vermont after an early April light snowfall,
but it's actually after the hail around
Melbourne, Florida Wednesday. 

The area around Melbourne, Florida seemed to be hardest hit, with whiteout conditions in powerful winds, torrential downpours and lots and LOTS of hail. 

The result was ground turned white as if covered with snow. Picture January in Vermont with palm trees. Video showed intense winds, ice-covered Florida highways and the ground covered with hail and littered with branches.

Other areas of central Florida had hail the size of baseballs.  

Florida has lots of thunderstorms, but rarely has severe hail storms. The atmosphere is usually too warm over the state to support much hail.  But a pocket of cold, dry air aloft helped develop the severe thunderstorm, and provided conditions for lots of hail to form and eventually fall to the ground. 

April is a favored month for severe hail in the United States. Cold air still spills south from Canada pretty regularly. Even where it's warm and humid, this air can cool the upper atmosphere, making conditions favorable for giant hail.

When they hit populated areas, an individual hail storm can easily cause more than $1 billion in damage.  

The risk is back for gorilla  hail, and maybe a few tornadoes in Texas today.  The Dallas-Fort Worth area pretty much escaped the hail barrage on Wednesday, but might not be so lucky today.    

Rare April In Burlington, Vermont: Only 13th April In 120 Years With Just Trace Of Snow

A snowstorm buries garden flowers in St. Albans, Vermont 
in April, 2021. Pretty much no snow this April, though. 

 It's a given that it always snows during April in Vermont.  But not this year, at least in parts of the state. 

Even in banana-belt Burlington, Vermont, you can expect at least some light accumulations. This year is a rare exception. Unless we see a HUGE surprise between now and Sunday, this will be only the 12th April in 121 years with just a trace or no snow. 

In order to qualify for a trace of snow, you need at least a snowflake or two hitting the ground. That happened on April 2 this year in Burlington, when a few light snowflakes floated down before dawn. 

It didn't stick, of course.

Only two Aprils - in 1941 and 2005 -  couldn't even muster a flurry. Those were the only Aprils in the past 120 years without so much as a snowflake drifting down in Burlington. 

With climate change, you'd expect Aprils to become less snowy. But looking at the stats, I really didn't see much of a trend with April snows. There's no increase in the frequency of virtually snow-free Aprils.  

Average April snowfall in Burlington is 4.0 inches.Twelve out of the past 30 Aprils in Burlington have had above average snow. That's nearly even steven, so I don't really see a trend. 

By the way, the snowiest April on record was in 1983, when we got plastered by 21.3 inches of snow. April, 2000 was close with 19.1 inches. 

Unless we get a snowy surprise in May, Burlington's snow total for this past season looks like it will amount to 72.8 inches. That's right around normal if you take into account the average over more than 120 years.

However, "normal" is regarded by the National Weather Service as the average for the 30-year period ending 2010.  That era was snowier, with a mean annual snowfall of about 88 inches, so we technically regard this past winter as a little on the light side with snow.

That's not to say we can't get more snow in May, just not often. In the past 120 years or so, Burlington has seen measurable snow in 12 Mays, the most recent being in 2020, with a whopping 0.1 inches. Before 2020, the last time Burlington had measurable snow in May was back in 1996, when 0.3 inches fell.

The snowiest May in Burlington was in 1966, when 3.9 inches fell during the month.  May, 1966 was a rough one in Vermont.  All but three nights in the first 14 days of the month had sharp freezes, and that includes a reading of 24 degrees on May 3, which to this day remains the coldest May temperature on record in Burlington. 

Montpelier was well below freezing each morning from May 2 through 13 with readings as low as 20 degrees. Brrr!!

I'm pretty sure we won't see anything like that this May. Fingers crossed it also won't except on the mountain tops, where it always does in May. It's hard to entirely escape winter in Vermont. 

 

Running Hot And Cold, Also, Another Big Dump Of Rain Looming? Rinsing And Repeating

Showers seen bubbling up in the distance yesterday as
viewed from South Burlington, Vermont. Outflow from
the showers yesterday kept abruptly switching the 
day's weather from warm to cold to warm again.

 If you spent anytime outside in Vermont yesterday, as I did, you could be forgiven if you thought you were coming down with something. 

One moment, you're in the sun doing some gardening, working or just having fun, and you start to sweat. It felt warm. Really warm .The next moment, you're freezing your butt off. 

No, it wasn't a fever or the flu coming on.  It was the atmosphere over us playing those tricks. 

The April sun is high and warm, and it heats up the ground where we are pretty fast. As I noted yesterday, there was a pool of cold air high above us. 

The sun, as expected, created updrafts that produced those billowy clouds that turned into showers. 

Most (but not all!) of the showers were pretty light, but as they developed, they pulled down packets of that cold air from up high.  You didn't even need to be under one of these showers to get these cold blasts.

You just had to be near them. That explained the sudden chill in the air at times.  Then the showers would move on, the sun would heat things up again, more showers, more cold downdrafts, rinse and repeat.  

Rinse and repeat is the theme of this post, actually. 

We're going to go through it all again today, similar to Tuesday. Once again, there's patchy dense fog around this morning which will burn off. There are patches of blue sky as the sun rises.  Once again, there's cold air up above us.

Which means more showers forming today. Chances are, if you're outside again today, you might once again run hot and cold on a day, like yesterday, that couldn't seem to make up its mind. 

NEW STORM

Sunshine and dark clouds yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont.
Showers mixed with the sunshine caused temperatures
to go all over the place Tuesday. Same thing
could happen today. 

Yesterday and today's weather was influenced by the remnants of that soaking storm that came through on Sunday and Monday.  

Here's another rinse and repeat:  It appears we might have an almost identical setup to this week, starting over the weekend and continuing into next week. 

Although the details of the forecast are still hazy, it's looking like another wet storm will come through sometimes between Saturday and Monday. 

 If anything this storm might end up being even wetter and bigger than the last one, if everything comes together just so.

We'll have to watch for some minor flooding with this next storm, as another inch or two or locally more of rain would get some already fast flowing rivers up near bank full.  Later forecasts will pin down this possibility. 

Then, just like last Sunday's storm, this one will stall out somewhere near or just north of us. Another cold pool of air will thusly set up overhead, and next week will be showery, changeable and cool, just like this week. 

TEXAS HAIL 

Some of the stronger storms yesterday in Vermont and New York produced isolated instances of pea sized hail. No biggie, especially compared to Texas, where they do everything bigger.

Yesterday, hail as big as baseballs crashed down on central Texas and the Texas panhandle.

Today looks worse. The risk of gorilla hail is on the docket for populated areas around Dallas-Fort Worth. The term gorilla hail, meaning very large, damaging balls of ice, was reportedly invented on the fly a couple years ago as noted storm chaser Reed Timmer as he watched another big hail storm batter a town in Texas.

Gorilla hail, if it develops over populated areas, can be incredibly expensive with a flood of insurance claims following the trail of broken windows, smashed up cars and wrecked roofs after a hail storm. 

Hail storms each caused between $1 and $2 billion - with a b - in damage around the Dallas-Fort Worth area in 1995, 2003, 2012 and 2017,

So, if today's hail could be a mess.  If the worst storms stay out in open country, that would be better. On top of everything else, there's a risk of tornadoes later today in northern Texas, too. 

Tis The Season For Winter/Summer Hybrid (Thundery??) Weather In Vermont

Blue skies made a welcome appearance over my St.
Albans, Vermont gardens this morning. But the
sunshine that accompanies the breaks in the 
clouds will lead to scatters showers and rumbles
of thunder this afternoon and evening.

 In the winter, when a pool of cold air settles in aloft, thousands of feet above us, we get the drudgery we see in the depths of the cold season.   

In means overcast skies, cold weather, wind chills, snow showers and just general ick. 

Now that we're well into spring, we can still get those cold pools of air high overhead. Sure, when that happens in the spring, it gets chilly. But we also get hints of summer. 

Goodbye, thick overcast. Hello to scattered showers, even thunderstorms, and if you're "lucky," small hail. That's what we seem destined to see today.

The strong spring sunshine can cut through the clouds, allowing for breaks of sun to develop. That sun heats the ground pretty quickly. Then we get updrafts, which create those tall billowy clouds that we often see in the summer. 

Those tall clouds turn into showers, occasionally accompanied by a rumble of thunder or two.

Billowing shower clouds rise over my St. Albans,
Vermont gardens back in April, 2021 in a 
weather pattern that's very much similar to today's.

The dense fog that was around early this morning was burning off by 8 a.m. or so in much of the region. That was revealing areas of blue skies. 

The sun will heat the ground, and we'll see some of those tall clouds. 

These cold pools of air aloft are really storm systems in higher levels of the atmosphere. Little disturbances, which are basically mini-cold fronts, come through from time to time under these weather patterns.

It these mini-cold fronts are timed right, they can help develop these showers and storms. That will probably happen today as well. 

As we expect in the summer, the showers and isolated rumbles of thunder will be hit and miss. Some places might miss out entirely. Most of us probably won't even hear thunder. 

Unlike what we often see in the summer, today's storms and showers will not be severe. 

The few places that get bullseyed by the strongest of today's storms might hear a couple rumbles of thunder, experience a brief downpour, possibly mixed with a few pea-sized hail stones and wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. Fun for weather geeks, but definitely nothing to panic over.

It'll sort of be rinse and repeat tomorrow, though the showers won't be as numerous during the day as they will today. They'll also be weaker and stand little chance of producing thunder or brief downpours. 

There Will Never Be Another Hurricane Ian Or Fiona

Damage from Hurricane Ian in Florida. Usually, the same
hurricane names are rotated through every six years, unless one
particular storm is super bad. Then the name is retired. 
So because of their power, there won't be another
Hurricane Ian or Hurricane Fiona. 

 The Powers That Be who name hurricanes rotate the same names every six years.

That is, unless a hurricane is so destructive and deadly that it is seared on the minds of its victims.  

So, say goodbye to any chance of another Hurricane Ian or Hurricane Fiona.   In the future, say hello to hurricanes Farrah and Idris. Hurricanes Ian and Fiona in 2022 definitely left their marks, and it's no wonder their names are being retired.

Hurricane Ian trashed Florida, and was one on of the costliest hurricanes on record for the United States. 

The long track of Hurricane Fiona caused a lot of damage in Puerto Rico before making a turn north and making a long journey to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Canada, unleashing perhaps the worst hurricane disaster in Canadian history. 

The World Meteorological Organization, which is in charge of hurricane names, has retired 94 names overall. A committee then comes up with replacement names

As the Washington Post reports: 

"The storm names come from a WMO committee composed of meteorology and hydrology experts from North America, Central America and the Caribbean. Official storm naming began in 1953 to ease communication around storm warnings and thus protect lives and property from life-threatening conditions."

As an aside, the entire planet is probably grateful I'm not in charge of naming hurricanes. I'd probably come up with names like Kudlow,  Beezle, Monkton, Tootsie or Skunk.  But I digress. 

For some reason, hurricanes that begin with the letter "I" are the most likely to be retired. Ian is the 13th "I" hurricane to have its name retired. The others are Ione in 1955, Inez in 1966k Iris in 2001, Isidore in 2002, Isabel in 2003, Ivan in 2004k Ike in 2008, Igor in 2010, Irene in 2011, Ingrid in 2013 Irma in 2017 and Ida in 2021.

Speaking of Hurricane Ian, the National Hurricane Center last month came out with a detailed analysis of that storm. The NHC issues final reports on most hurricanes months after they happen to share knowledge gained, lessons learned, etc. These reports also offer revisions to statistics about the hurricanes. 

In the case of Ian, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Ian's peak strength from Category 4 to Category 5 when it was just off the coast of western Florida. Category 5 is the strongest strength ranking a hurricane can attain. Such storms have sustained winds of at least 157 mph. 

Winds were as high as 160 mph during Ian's peak.  The storm "weakened," if you can call it that, by the time it reached land in Florida, with top winds of "only" 150 mph. 

Experts are hoping hurricane season 2023 will be less intense than in recent years. An El Nino, which creates warmer water in the Pacific Ocean west of South America is developing. El Ninos tend to limit hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. 

Limit, but not eliminate. It only takes one to really raise havoc, unfortunately. 

 

Gloomy Days Are Still Really Pretty In A Vermont Spring

Wet flowers and spring leaves in a rainy St. Albans,
Vermont garden on Sunday 

As forecast, Sunday was a washout in Vermont. 

A steady, soaking rain fell all day. We kind of needed it, as the middle of the month was so warm and dry. 

Of course, a rainy Sunday meant outdoor activities were pretty much not going to happen.  Or maybe they could, in a limited sense anyway. 

Unlike in, say, November or March, a rainy day when everything is sprouting for spring isn't all that gloomy. As you can see in a couple photos in this post and the video below, there are pops of color everywhere. 

I've intentionally planted a lot of perennials around my St. Albans, Vermont house that bloom early in spring. After a long winter, I need some green and some bright colors. This year is not disappointing. 

Emerging sugar maple leaves on a rainy Sunday in
St. Albans, Vermont. 

It's way ahead of schedule. Leaves are sprouting on most of the trees already.  You usually don't see that until we start getting into the second week in May. 

Sure, the poplars are early birds and spring to life at the end of April. But not the sugar maples and beeches. They're usually smart enough to wait until May. But not in this warm spring.

I got a good idea of how ahead we are this year when one of those "memories" posts came up on Facebook. 

 It showed my gardens on April 23, 2018.  My gardens are bigger now than they were then, but I still had a fair number of daffodils. 

But on this date in 2018, the shoots were barely out of the ground. There were no daffodil blossoms to be found. And the trees in the background of the photo were as leafless as they would be in January. 

As long as we don't get a hard freeze, I'm OK with this early spring.  Like I said, I need some life and nature around the house. 

Rainy day garden in St. Albans, Vermont. 

It does look like the pace of spring will slow down for awhile.  Remember, in one of yesterday's posts in this here blog thingy, I said that we're in for a long stretch of mostly cool, showery, weather. 

That remains true. Although we might get a bit of a break from the showers toward Friday and Saturday, there's no super warm air in the forecast for the foreseeable future. 

This cooler weather, and the more leisurely pace of spring, will let us savor the season all the more. 

Maybe the cooler weather will also postpone the black flies, which would be nice

I've got my video ready for you. Hope you like the rainy garden tour. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Great Salt Lake Is Miraculously Great Again, But How Long Will That Last?

The Great Salt Lake in Utah, in danger of 
drying up, got a reprieve this winter as runoff
from heavy snows have replenished the
lake. At least for now. 

 Back in January, I told you that the Great Salt Lake in Utah was in trouble. It was at record low levels, and some feared it could dry up entirely. 

The good news now is that big lake has gotten a reprieve. At least for now.  

Utah had a stormy winter.  Snow really piled up, in some places to record levels in the state's mountains. Now that snow has started to melt, and some of that runoff is flowing toward and into the Great Salt Lake. 

As a result, the lake its back from its near death. 

In November, the lake was at its lowest level on record, and it had lost 70 percent of its water since 1850.

Since then the water in the Great Salt Lake has risen by about three feet. Most of that came from winter rain and snow dumped directly from the sky into the lake, or its immediate shore. 

This means that more water from melting mountain snow should add more water to the lake.  The statewide average snowpack was 30 inches last week, which is the most on record. The previous record was 28.2 inches in 1952.  

As the Washington Post reported earlier this month, the Great Salt Lake is still about six feet below the minimum it needs for the lake's overall ecological and economic health. 

When all that snow melts in the Utah mountains it could boost lake levels by another three or four feet, which would bring it up to a range that's pretty good.  

That doesn't mean the lake is permanently cured. This year might have been a one-off. The West's long-running drought could always return. And western droughts are worse because of the hotter weather brought on by climate change. 

Large amounts of water that would go into the Great Salt Lake is diverted for home and agricultural use. The lake will need lots of conservation and good water management by humans to keep its ecological balance going. 

If the Great Salt Lake is ever allowed to dry up, a huge ecosystem and critical stop for migratory birds would be destroyed. Dust from the lake bed, containing such lovely substances as arsenic and mercury, would blow into populated areas. 

The Great Salt Lake is great again, but how long will it last? 

Spring Is Over For Now In Vermont. Enjoy The Chill, Showers, Clouds Into May

An emerging spring sugar maple leaf amid today's
rain in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Did you love the warm, sunny weather Friday afternoon?  Was Saturday OK for you, with its relatively mild temperatures and lack of rain?  

Hope you didn't miss out on it! It'll be awhile before such weather is back.

GLOOMY WEEK?

As forecast, a drenching rain is falling across Vermont today.  It's gotten to be on the dry side for this time of year. So the gloomy day long raindrops are a good thing, despite the fact it's interfering with outdoor fun and work. 

Most of us can expect total rainfall through tomorrow morning to run over an inch.  Not enough to cause any flooding, but you will see rivers go up and run fast without quite spilling over their banks.  It'll be pretty soggy underfoot, too. 

The problem is, the wet weather isn't just a today thing. Clouds, showers and cool weather are now here for an extended stay. 

As often happens in the spring, the weather pattern gets stuck.  More often than  not, when the weather gets stuck, we in Vermont get the cloudy end of the stick. 

High pressure way up in northeastern Quebec will prevent the storm causing today's rain from really moving away. 

So, the risk of showers - and mountain snow showers - will continue pretty much all week. 

That's not to say you won't see the sun at all. It'll peek through from time to time, especially as we get later in the week. 

But with the storm lingering, at least in the upper atmosphere, cold air will sit over us. Especially in the higher levels of the atmosphere. If the sun breaks through the clouds, it will heat the ground  a bit, cause updrafts, interact with the chilly air above and create showers. 

Spring foliage begins to emerge on a rainy Sunday in
St. Albans, Vermont while daffodils look on in the background.

At least we'll see gradual improvement as the week goes on. Monday will be almost a washout. You'll probably dodge a lot of mostly light showers Tuesday.  Breaks between showers will last longer Wednesday through Friday.  

It's hard to say when this weather pattern will fully break.  This kind of thing can last one week, two weeks, even three weeks in some cases. The computer models that meteorologists at least partly rely upon aren't good at predicting when these blocky weather patterns will loosen up. 

For now, the iffy long range forecasts have us in a cool, showery pattern through the first week of May.  This prediction is subject to change, of course. 

BRIGHT SIDES

There are bright sides to all this. 

So far at least, forecasts indicate the core of the coldest air seems like it wants to go by to our south and west. Those long range forecasts seem like they want to keep the coldest air, relative to average, off to our south and west. Mostly in the mid-Mississippi and Ohio river valleys.  

A broad area in the Midwest from Nebraska to Ohio are under freeze warnings tonight. Some areas in th Midwest and Plains could see record low temperatures. 

Chances are we in Vermont will be on the chilly side most days into early May, but it might not be so extreme or consistent.  At this point, we see chances of the usual light freezes we get this time of year, but nothing record breaking. Chances are also greater than average that we will be somewhat wetter than average into early May. 

That doesn't sound like we will have enjoyable weather, but it has its benefits. For one, spring is way ahead of average, which puts at risk for damage from late frosts. Cool, cloudy weather will stall the progress of spring, which will prevent even more frost and freeze vulnerability. 

Second, the clouds will likely prevent temperatures from getting too cold at night, which would prevent the risk of frost damage. 

Also, for the past couple of years, Vermont has been battling the horrible spongy caterpillars (formerly known by a name that included an eastern European slur). These disgusting insects deforested much of Vermont's landscape in the early summers of 2021 and 2022.

Damp, drizzly, foggy weather in the spring encourages a type of fungus that has absolutely no effect on us humans. But it  can decimate spongy caterpillar populations. We can only hope. 

The weather pattern also has a bright side for the whole nation, too.  It will suppress (though not entirely eliminate) the chances of severe weather and tornadoes for at least the next week or so. 

Which makes cloudy, chilly, wet spring skies easier to take. 

Not Just Vermont Who Dealt With Extreme April Heat; Check Out These Figures From Asia!

Computer imagery showed intense heat in Asia this
past Monday. Since then the heat continued south,
eased in northern China and increased in Japan/South Korea.

 Sure, we had summer in April this month in Vermont. 

But if you thought our heat wave was something, check out these temperatures from parts of Asia. Around the time we had our heat wave, here's how the Washington Post describes big swaths of Asia:

"Numerous heat records have been broken across Southeast Asia, China and other parts of the continent in recent days as the region remains in the grip of a dangerously scorching heat wave, with Thailand in particular experiencing unusually extreme conditions. Weather historian Maximiliano Herrera is describing it as the' worst April heat wave in Asian history.'"

April and May are usually Thailand's hottest months, but last week got absolutely ridiculous. The temperature last Friday reached 114 degrees in the town of Tak.  This established the record for the hottest temperature anyone has ever seen in Thailand.

As that record heat hit, Thailand was celebrating that country's New Year's festivities. Because record hot weather enveloped the country, people were advised to tamp down their parties and stay indoors to avoid heat stroke. 

Up in China, at least 109 weather stations in 12 provinces recorded their hottest April temperatures on record, says the Washington Post.  

WaPo continues: 

"The hot days had been accumulating over the past few weeks, with Yuanjiang in Hunan province having exceeded 95 degrees for 22 straight days as of last Friday."

Other nations in Asia shared in this weird heat wave. 

Bangladesh ties its national April highest temperature at 109 degrees. The Bangladesh capital, Dhaka, reached 105 degrees, its hottest temperature since 1960. Temperatures reached as high as 111 in Myanmar and 107 in Nepal.  Intense heat killed at least 13 people in India.  Concern was rising in India with memories fresh from an even more intense, deadly heat wave last year. 

As of Wednesday, the record heat had spread into Japan and the Koreas. 

Early season heat waves like the one in Asia can be more dangerous than similar hot spells later in the season.  People become somewhat acclimatized to the heat later in the season.  Early heat wave come before people's bodies are ready for it. Some evidence suggests early season heat waves can be more deadly than later ones. 

If you're a regular reader of this here blog thingy and you think I've put up a lot of posts about record heat pretty much everywhere, you're right. 

And you will have seen this disclaimer, which I need to repeat. Heat waves have always happened all over the world. Now, however, we are in a mostly man-made climate change regime. Heat waves have become more frequent, more widespread and more likely to exceed all time record highs. 

It can happen anywhere, anytime. This month, it's been in places as different from each other as Vermont and Thailand.  

March Was World's Second Warmest On Record

Almost all of the world was warmer than the
long term average, once again, in March
2023.  It was the world's second warmest
March on record. Small photo, so click
on the image to make it bigger and
easier to see. 

 As we do monthly, we always check the world's monthly temperature when the number crunchers complete their work. So now we have the March, 2023 global data.

The month was the world's second warmest. Only March, 2016 was warmer. All eight of the past eight Marches were in the top ten warmest. 

The other top 10 warmest March readings were in 2002 and 2010.  The records go back to 1850 or so.  

The March, 2023 departure from the 20th century average was the third highest for any month, just behind February and March, 2016.

For those of you keeping track, the last time the world had a March that was at least a smidge cooler than normal was in 1976. That means if you are under the age of 47, you've never seen a global March that was cooler than average.

NOAA's  National Centers for Environmental Information is already saying that 2023 is pretty much guaranteed to be among the top 10 warmest years on record and stands an excellent chance of being among the top five.

We've shifted out of a La Nina pattern of cool water in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which tends to try to cool the Earth a little. We're going into an El Nino, which tends to increase global temperatures. That means 2023 stands a chance at being the hottest year on record. 

In March, 2023, the places that appeared to be warmest in March relative to the long term average were much of the Arctic, especially in northern Canada, northeastern Canada, pretty much all of Asia except Southeast Asia, parts of eastern Europe, southern South America and much of Antarctica. 

The only places in the world that were on the cool side were the western United States, southwestern and south central Canada, an area of Pacific ocean southwest of South America, Iceland and an area of the Arctic north and northwest of Scandinavia. 

Overall the United States sat out the global warmth of March, 2023.  The Gulf Coast and the East Coast from Florida to New England were warm, but the western third of the United States was chilly.  Out of 130 years of record, this was the 45th coolest March in the contiguous U.S. 

Oregon had its third coldest March on record. California, Nevada and North Dakota had their fifth coldest March.  Florida managed to have its eighth warmest March

Here in Vermont, we had our 30th warmest March out of the past 130.

 Judging in part from epic heat waves that have already hit parts of China, southeastern Asia and the northeastern United States, April is sure to come in as one of the world 's top 10 hottest, and likely one of the top 5.

Tornado Season Continues Its Toll: At Least Two More Deaths From Wednesday's Storms

UPDATE:

Screen grab showing just one of many examples of 
tornado damage in Oklahoma from Wednesday night. 

The death toll rose to three from the tornadoes in Oklahoma Wednesday night. 

Meanwhile, a new tornado watch was issued this afternoon for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

As of 4 p.m. there were already a couple of tornado warnings in western Illinois, meaning tornadoes had been detected or radar indicated they were forming. 

The tornado watch goes until 8 p.m. tonight, so we'll see how this plays out. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 

After a semi-break in destructive tornadoes for the past week or two, more deadly twisters struck Wednesday, killing at least two people, unfortunately. 

The deaths were reported in the tiny town of Cole, Oklahoma, population about 600. Close range, don't-try-this-at-home video shot by Reed Timmer shows extreme winds from the large, slow moving tornado shredding buildings, trees and power lines in Cole. 

CNN reported that systematic searches were still ongoing in Cole this morning.  The death toll could rise, and people who had gotten trapped by debris covering storm shelters were being rescued. s 

Another tornado struck the much larger city of Shawnee, Oklahoma, population about 30,000, roughly 30 miles east of Oklahoma City.  Widespread damage was reported there, including to Oklahoma Baptist University. 

Wednesday's tornado in Shawnee comes just nine years after another twister leveled parts of that city. 

Tornadoes were also reported in Kansas and Iowa on Wednesday. 

I don't know whether the Oklahoma deaths were because the victims didn't hear the warnings or had no place to go to be safe.  (A tornado warning had been issued before the twister struck Cole). 

As NPR reported, the accuracy and timeliness of tornado warnings has gotten much better in recent years and decades. But people, especially in low income, rural areas, often have poor cell phone service and no storm sirens, so they don't hear the warnings. 

Weather radios are a godsend in those situations, but only three to four percent of households have them.  They're inexpensive, and especially for people in weaker housing like mobile homes, the ability to get warnings can buy people time to get to safer storm shelters.

Indiana lawmakers had a great idea that should spread: All new mobile homes there are now required to be equipped with weather radios. 

Today's severe weather threat will shift to a broad zone from eastern Texas to Illinois, but as of this morning not many tornadoes are expected for later in the day. 

As usual for this time of year, there's pretty much a daily threat for severe storms and possibly tornadoes for at least the next week, and probably beyond. 

Before Wednesday's tornadoes, the death toll from United States twisters so far this year was already up to 63.  We still have not yet hit the normal peak season for tornadoes, which is usually during the month of May. 

Video: April Heat Wave Pushes Spring Along - Fast!

Budding daffodils in St. Albans on April 13, the start of 
a record heat wave. Within two days, they were in full 
bloom as spring raced ahead in the warmth. 

 During the bout of record heat around my place in St. Albans, Vermont on April 13-16, I went out daily to document the jack rabbit fast progress of spring under those weather conditions.   

The change was dramatic, as you can see below in the videos I took during that spell of weather. I didn't necessarily shoot the same scenes each day. Some days I did, other days no. But you can see how the landscape changed.

Some of the trees ultimately leafed out by April 16, earlier than I've ever seen in Vermont before. And I've lived here all my life so far, 60 years to be exact

The video almost looks like four weeks went by instead of four days. 

Click on the image below to see the video. If you don't see the image, as some devices won't show it, click on this link to watch the video.  Talk about spring exploding in one fell swoop!

 

Vermont Snow Flurries Today, But How Soon We Forget How Wintry It Can Get

Vermont Agency of Transportation webcam this morning
shows a dusting of new snow along high elevation Route
17 in Buels Gore this morning.......

 A few snowflakes drifted past my windows this morning in St. Albans, Vermont. Snow and rain showers are in today's forecast. Web cams already show some dustings of new snow on the ground in higher elevations. 

This kind of thing in mid-April is absolutely normal in Vermont for this time of year.

 However, after that unprecedented April heat wave we just had, and some trees in the valleys coming into leaf earlier than I've ever seen before, we can be forgiven for feeling shocked by the snow flakes. 

If you think this is bad, we should travel back exactly one year ago today to see how wintry it can really get. 

On April 19, 2022 a late season snowstorm really over-performed, dumping a general four or five inches of snow in just a few hours across much of northern and western Vermont. Hyde Park received 8.5 inches, and spots in the Adirondacks had more than a foot of new snow.  The wet snow snapped quite a few trees and power lines, cutting power to over 20,000 Vermont customers. Thundersnow rumbled overhead that day, too.

By the way, we also had a snowstorm and  cold snap around this time of year in 2021, when three to six inches of snow fell on much of Vermont on April 20-21, 2021

So cheer up! We're breaking that two year trend by only getting annoying little flurries and dustings of snow. No big dumps of snow for us this time.  And it's going to warm up again. At least briefly. 

First, we'll endure a raw day today as we won't get out of the 40s.  At any time, you could see a cold rain shower, possibly mixed with snow or graupel. 

Graupel is that weird, kind of pellet-like icy snowflake caused by supercooled water freezing onto snowflakes. 

....but the flurries in Buels Gore are nothing compared
to this scene in St. Albans, Vermont
exactly one year ago today. 

Tonight will be cold, with most of us going down into the 20s. I'm slightly worried about some of the new leaves on the trees.  I think most will be OK, but I wonder if a few will shrivel up, turn black and need to start over.  If it gets colder than forecast, that could be an issue, well see. 

Tomorrow will be gorgeous. Still just slightly cool for the season, but with temperatures by afternoon in the 50s with just light breezes, you will feel like spring has returned. 

Do you miss last week's summer weather?  It now looks like we have a brief redux coming Friday. A surge of warm air will pop us into the 70s, possibly low 80s on Friday once again.  This, after forecasts five days ago said we'd be in an extended period of chilly weather. 

The forecast gets really iffy for the weekend, but Saturday looks like it might be on the warm side, too.  We'll see some rain in there Saturday, Sunday and/or Monday, but exactly how much is an open question. 

It will turn somewhat chilly again by early next week. After all, it's still only April

Public Pressure Reverses Twitter Plan To Throttle Very Useful Severe Weather Warnings. We Think

An example of one of the automated Tweets from
the National Weather Service that were 
threatened until Twitter abruptly change
course on their decisions last weekend. Note
this is NOT a current warning. It's just an
example of an automated alert.

 I've been hating on Twitter for an increasing number of reasons, ever since our buddy Elon Musk took over last fall.  

For this blog, given it's all weather and climate geekdom, recent news that Twitter would limit automated tweets that distribute alerts for dangerous weather like tornado warnings was pretty dismaying,

So it's relief that, over the weekend, Twitter appears to have hastily reversed course and will allow an unlimited number of automated warning Tweets from National Weather Service offices all across the nation. 

Late last week, meteorologists were up in arms about the proposed changes. 

As the Washington Post explained a few days ago: 

"When tornadoes, flash floods and thunderstorms strike, or threaten to, the National Weather Service and broadcast meteorologists warn their followers using automated tweets, among other methods of dissemination. 

Twitter has long allowed users free access to systems that allows them to program such posts in response to external sources of information, be it the Weather Service's alerts, the movement of Musk's private jet or entries in the dictionary."

The automated tweets are handy because, since they're, well, automated, meteorologists don't have to squander precious seconds and minutes laboriously typing out tornado warnings and such. On this automated system, they're just blasted out on Twitter with no effort. 

As, the National Weather Service said in a statement, for every single warning, "seconds could make the difference between life and death."  Which means the automated warnings Tweets are a great help. 

As soon as a NWS meteorologist figures out a tornado is looming, they need to get the warnings out now if now sooner.  

Yes, people can get weather warnings from sources other than Twitter. But Twitter's immediacy and far reach meant it became an important source for people who need to be apprised of incoming tornadoes, flash floods or other dangerous events. 

The automated Twitter warnings became a favored way of warning the public. I have to say those warnings Tweets are a lot better than Facebook.  That social media site's algorithms seem to think I'm interested in a flash flood warning that expired over a week ago for a remote Utah canyon 2,500 miles from my home. 

Yeah, not helpful.  The Twitter automated alerts, on the other hand, were great because they blasted out in the moment, then seemed to disappear forever when the threat was over.  

Late last week and This past weekend, National Weather Service offices across the nation, broadcast meteorologists and others flooded Twitter with messages saying these warnings would go away, so Twitter would no longer be a go-to place to receive warnings of dangerous weather. 

But maybe Twitter will remain a good source of warnings  after all. As CNN Meteorologist Jennifer Gray reported:

"Twitter originally said there would be no exceptions to its ruling to limit the number of automated tweets. But in a surprising move over the weekend, Twitter has reversed course, saying in a tweet 'Twitter will allow the National Weather Service accounts to continue Tweeting weather alerts without limits.'  The move highlights the importance of weather alerts. Weather warnings save lives."

Despite the welcome reprieve, you could see a hint of why Musk doesn't like these automated systems. What's really driving Musk's attitude is cold, hard cash. 

Twitter has told users that it would limit automated tweets. They would allow 1,500 of them per month free. That sounds like a lot, but the National Weather Service and broadcast meteorologists burn through many more such tweets routinely when severe weather occurs. 

Musk's crew said there will be no exceptions to this policy, even for potentially life saving things like tornado warnings. 

But no worries!  Musk had another offer: For the low, low price of just $100 per month, you could get as many as 50,000 tweets.

Spoiler: The National Weather Service and other organizations weren't  going to bother with that stupid fee structure. Which is why it is such a relief that Twitter apparently is letting the National Weather Service go on with unfettered automated Tweets.

According to Gray at CNN, Daryl Herzmann is a systems analysts for Iowa Environmental Mesonet and helped create the automation software used by Twitter.

Herzmann is still unsettled and worried by Twitter's erratic moves on this issue and others. 

"'I am glad Twitter reversed course and made an exception for the vital services provided by the National Weather Service,' Herzmann told CNN after he heard the news. 'It does continue to be a concern that Twitter can make wild changes like this and not fully consider the implications of their changes.'

'Since Elon has basically gutted all the employees, it's impossible to interact with them at a technical level,' explained Herzmann. 'It's very frustrating."

Looking at the big picture, Twitter might still become a not so reliable source for life and death weather warnings, because Elon Musk is so erratic. 

Twitter had become a somewhat reliable source of news, and now that reliability is diminishing quickly under Musk. There's been all kinds of incidents, including removing the New York Times verified badge and labeling NPR "government funded media" even though only 1% of its budget comes from the government and NPR's news content is not subject to any government oversight or control. Twitter jus did the same to CBC, the Canadian news broadcaster.

Even though Twitter did the right thing this past weekend when they reversed course and allowed the automated warnings, I have still lost trust in Twitter.

When there's a risk of severe weather, don't just rely on Twitter for warnings. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive critical weather alerts.

April Heat Wave Finally Ending; We Might See Highs Like That Again Until Summer

It was hot again in northwest Vermont for one last day on 
Sunday. Also a bit more humid than on previous days,
so we saw a few of those billowy cumulus clouds
that are common in mid-summer, but less so now 

 It felt like a balmy summer morning in Vermont this Monday as the lingering effects of our record April heat wave remained. 

If you missed the warm weather this morning, you're (mostly) out of luck for probably the next several weeks. 

The heat over-performed in northwestern Vermont again on Sunday. Temperatures reached 83 degrees in Burlington. 

That wasn't quite a record high, but still a full 27 degrees above normal. Sunday's high and low temperature, combined with somewhat higher humidity than previous days, made it a perfectly average day - for mid-July. 

There were even those puffy, sort of towering cumulus clouds that are most common in mid-summer. I saw a couple isolate small air mass thunderstorms tower up in the Adirondacks, too.  You can get thunderstorms in April every once in awhile, but these partly heat generated ones are something for this early in the season. 

The cooling will start today as rain moves in.  High temperatures for the day will be this morning, with mostly of us getting into the 60s.  Which won't be hard to do since many of us were already there at dawn.

Temperatures will probably drift downward into the 50s this afternoon.   A cold front this evening will ensure we  go down further. 

By tomorrow and Wednesday, highs will only be in the 45 to 50 degree range. That's somewhat colder than normal for this time of year. It will feel like yet another shock to the system. Northwest winds will make it feel even colder.

Mountain tops will even get a little snow. That's not at all odd for mid-April, but it's definitely a change in the weather, 

We need rain after that weird hot spell, but I'm not impressed with the amounts forecast. Northwestern Vermont looks like they might get between a half inch and two thirds of an inch. The rest of the state seems destined to see a half inch or less.

The rain will dampen the tree pollen, which has been sky high in recent days, as anyone with allergies knows. Everything started bursting forth with flowers and buds and leaves all at once. The allergen onslaught was impressive. 

The hottest temperature - at least in Burlington - during this bizarre heat wave was 88 degrees. We might not see temperature that warm until June or July.  

The weather patter has shifted to one that will mostly keep us chilly for the next couple of weeks at least. We might one last brief, quick squirt of warm air Friday, but that might be it for awhile.  

Extreme April Heat In Vermont/New England Might Lead to Crop/Garden/Forest Damage

Earlier than ever. Green leaves were starting to make an
appearance behind my St. Albans, Vermont house this
morning while a lilac bush in the foreground leafs
out and gets ready to bloom. Record heat this past
week as pushed spring into the too-soon category.

When I got up this Sunday morning, some of the early growing trees behind the house shimmered with tender new green leaves. The lilac bushes were brimming with tiny floret buds, ready to put on a show. 

I've never seen that kind of thing happen so early in Vermont.  It's truly remarkable.

This spring had been proceeding at a fairly average, comfortable, pedestrian pace, until the unprecedented early season heat arrived this week. 

Western Vermont won the heat prize Saturday. In Burlington, the record high Saturday was 85 degrees, breaking the old record of 82 set in 2003,

Everything springtime related leapt ahead far ahead of schedule. Things are where they should be around the first of May.  This race through spring will continue today with temperatures that will be far, far above normal again today. 

The summer party ends tomorrow with sharply cooler air.  Long range forecasts are suggesting that the second half of April might actually be chillier than normal.

If this cooler air is just kind of chilly without hard nighttime freezes, that will be good. It will just slow down the progress of spring and start to bring us more in line with where we should be.

Light to moderate freezes, temperatures that stay at or above, say, 28 in the Champlain Valley and in the mid 20s or better in much of the rest of northern Vermont between now and early May probably wouldn't cause much damage. Unless these readings are accompanied a lot of wind. 

 But it can get as low as the teens this time of year in most of the Green Mountain State that would be a disaster.

This coming week won't be a disaster, despite a particular chill in the air Tuesday and Wednesday. At least we'll get a little rain out of this shift to colder weather.  We need it. 

There's a good chance we'll have  widespread frosts and freezes Wednesday night, but I really doubt it will get cold enough to cause any real harm. 

This budding lilac floret, pictured here on April 22, 2021,
froze to death and never bloomed after a late season
snow and freeze that year. This highlights the danger of
what could happen if spring growth comes too soon.

However, if you brought your tender planters outside to enjoy the warmth, you'll need to bring them back indoors this week. 

My hibiscus has enjoyed the warm sun this week, for instance, but I'm locking it in the house and turning up the heat a bit when it gets cold starting this week. 

In the short term, we're safe, but I don't know how cold it might get in late April. 

These strange spring heat waves have already led to sometimes disheartening, or even costly damage.

A record early heat wave in Vermont back in 2002 brought the earliest 90 degree reading on record to Vermont on April 17 the year. Leaves on trees started coming out almost as soon as they are this year. 

Late in the month, hard freeze destroyed garden plants, and blackened swaths of forest by killing the early leaves. The visible damage lasted well into June before new leaves grew.  Trees being forced to re-leaf stresses them, in much the same way that spongy caterpillars did in Vermont last year and the year before,

Trees can usually withstand on year of defoliation, but if it happens year after year, it takes a toll. 

Other times, the damage from weird early heat is not so costly, but just a little depressing. 

Early spring, 2021 was warm and things were blooming early.  On April 21 that year, lilac trees were already displaying budding florets, and crabapple trees were just starting to bloom. 

Then a snowstorm and harsh freeze hit northwestern Vermont.  Some of the crabapple trees never really bloomed that year as a result. Many of the lilacs ended up stunted, only partially blooming.  Living without the annual spring display of full-blown lilacs was surprisingly depressing. 

Climate change has brought too-early heat waves that encourage too-early spring growth frequently in recent years. Sometimes, in the eastern United States, this has brought widespread agricultural damage, as the Southeastern U.S. saw in 2012 and 2017 and to a lesser extent earlier this year. 

That's not to say freezes are guaranteed to ruin our Vermont spring this year. The fact that it has come too early, though, leaves us prone to trouble. The best bet is just to hope for normal late April weather once this heat wave finally dies after today.