Baked Alaska: How That Frigid Northern State Not So Frigid This Winter, Compared To The Lower 48.

Not something you see very often: Water on top of ice
during a January thaw in normally frigid interior 
Alaska. Photo taken last week near Fairbanks. Photo
from National Weather Service office, Fairbanks. 

The Washington Post just had an interesting piece comparing the kind of January Alaska has had compared to the rest of us in the tropical Lower 48. 

Compared to Alaska, the Lower 48 ain't so tropical.  There's quite a role reversal going on. 

Anchorage, Alaska is having one of its warmest Januaries on record. With just a few days left in the month, the average temperature for January is 29.3 degrees, or a whopping 13 or so degrees warmer than normal.

Anchorage in January has been warmer than such cities as Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Louisville. 

We also had that famous snowstorm along the Gulf Coast earlier this month, which means New Orleans and Pensacola, Florida have had more snow this January than Anchorage. 

It's not just Anchorage. Fairbanks, in interior Alaska, is normally known as a forbidding icebox, where low temperatures often get into the 40s below zero and sometimes in the 50s to near 60 below. 

For only the second time on record, Fairbanks had a low temperature on a January day that was above freezing. (33 on January 25). On seven days this month,  the temperature in Fairbanks rose above 32 degrees. 

The normal high during January is 3 above zero and the normal low is about 15 below.  

Meanwhile, most of the Lower 48 has been unusually cold this January. That's especially true in the southeastern half of the United States. Though that region is having a mild spell in the closing days of this month, it will still be among the colder Januaries on record in much of the South.

The only regions of the Lower 48 that have been warmer than average are Maine, and large sections of Nevada, California, Oregon and Utah. 

REASONS AND OUTLOOK

The Alaska warmth is probably a mix between a fluke and climate change. A persistent northward bulge in the jet stream has kept Alaska on the mild side. A corresponding dip in the jet stream has pushed frigid air that's normally up in Alaska and northern Canada down into the United States. 

A marine heat wave, which is a zone of much warmer than normal ocean temperatures, has been ongoing in the Pacific from near Japan to the Gulf of Alaska. The marine heat wave is likely at least partly due to climate change and has probably been bolstering the Alaska balminess.

Plus, cold waves are in general less cold than they once were and hot spells are hotter in this age of climate change. That's likely a factor that has caused record heat in Alaska.  

The cold temperatures in the Lower 48 have broken few record lows, except near the Gulf Coast, where a previously unheard of snow cover combined with clear nighttime skies caused all time record lows as cold as 1 below zero not far from the Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana. 

(Editor's note: Yes, the Trump administration has renamed it Gulf of America, but international regulators, as well as the Associated Press style book still call it the Gulf of Mexico, so that's what we'll do here). 

The Alaska winter warmth is expected to mostly continue for awhile yet. The latest National Weather Service extended forecast out to two weeks calls for continued above normal temperatures in most of Alaska at least until a tad before Valentine's Day.  

For the Lower 48, the outlook is mixed, with variable conditions over the next two weeks. The northwestern United States is most likely to stay on the chilly side. 

Theses kinds of things do have a tendency to even out, usually. Although everything is skewed by climate change, I'm sure the Lower 48 will have its torrid hot spells in 2025 while Alaska will at least at times, revert back to its usual chilly vibe 

Public Pressure Reverses Twitter Plan To Throttle Very Useful Severe Weather Warnings. We Think

An example of one of the automated Tweets from
the National Weather Service that were 
threatened until Twitter abruptly change
course on their decisions last weekend. Note
this is NOT a current warning. It's just an
example of an automated alert.

 I've been hating on Twitter for an increasing number of reasons, ever since our buddy Elon Musk took over last fall.  

For this blog, given it's all weather and climate geekdom, recent news that Twitter would limit automated tweets that distribute alerts for dangerous weather like tornado warnings was pretty dismaying,

So it's relief that, over the weekend, Twitter appears to have hastily reversed course and will allow an unlimited number of automated warning Tweets from National Weather Service offices all across the nation. 

Late last week, meteorologists were up in arms about the proposed changes. 

As the Washington Post explained a few days ago: 

"When tornadoes, flash floods and thunderstorms strike, or threaten to, the National Weather Service and broadcast meteorologists warn their followers using automated tweets, among other methods of dissemination. 

Twitter has long allowed users free access to systems that allows them to program such posts in response to external sources of information, be it the Weather Service's alerts, the movement of Musk's private jet or entries in the dictionary."

The automated tweets are handy because, since they're, well, automated, meteorologists don't have to squander precious seconds and minutes laboriously typing out tornado warnings and such. On this automated system, they're just blasted out on Twitter with no effort. 

As, the National Weather Service said in a statement, for every single warning, "seconds could make the difference between life and death."  Which means the automated warnings Tweets are a great help. 

As soon as a NWS meteorologist figures out a tornado is looming, they need to get the warnings out now if now sooner.  

Yes, people can get weather warnings from sources other than Twitter. But Twitter's immediacy and far reach meant it became an important source for people who need to be apprised of incoming tornadoes, flash floods or other dangerous events. 

The automated Twitter warnings became a favored way of warning the public. I have to say those warnings Tweets are a lot better than Facebook.  That social media site's algorithms seem to think I'm interested in a flash flood warning that expired over a week ago for a remote Utah canyon 2,500 miles from my home. 

Yeah, not helpful.  The Twitter automated alerts, on the other hand, were great because they blasted out in the moment, then seemed to disappear forever when the threat was over.  

Late last week and This past weekend, National Weather Service offices across the nation, broadcast meteorologists and others flooded Twitter with messages saying these warnings would go away, so Twitter would no longer be a go-to place to receive warnings of dangerous weather. 

But maybe Twitter will remain a good source of warnings  after all. As CNN Meteorologist Jennifer Gray reported:

"Twitter originally said there would be no exceptions to its ruling to limit the number of automated tweets. But in a surprising move over the weekend, Twitter has reversed course, saying in a tweet 'Twitter will allow the National Weather Service accounts to continue Tweeting weather alerts without limits.'  The move highlights the importance of weather alerts. Weather warnings save lives."

Despite the welcome reprieve, you could see a hint of why Musk doesn't like these automated systems. What's really driving Musk's attitude is cold, hard cash. 

Twitter has told users that it would limit automated tweets. They would allow 1,500 of them per month free. That sounds like a lot, but the National Weather Service and broadcast meteorologists burn through many more such tweets routinely when severe weather occurs. 

Musk's crew said there will be no exceptions to this policy, even for potentially life saving things like tornado warnings. 

But no worries!  Musk had another offer: For the low, low price of just $100 per month, you could get as many as 50,000 tweets.

Spoiler: The National Weather Service and other organizations weren't  going to bother with that stupid fee structure. Which is why it is such a relief that Twitter apparently is letting the National Weather Service go on with unfettered automated Tweets.

According to Gray at CNN, Daryl Herzmann is a systems analysts for Iowa Environmental Mesonet and helped create the automation software used by Twitter.

Herzmann is still unsettled and worried by Twitter's erratic moves on this issue and others. 

"'I am glad Twitter reversed course and made an exception for the vital services provided by the National Weather Service,' Herzmann told CNN after he heard the news. 'It does continue to be a concern that Twitter can make wild changes like this and not fully consider the implications of their changes.'

'Since Elon has basically gutted all the employees, it's impossible to interact with them at a technical level,' explained Herzmann. 'It's very frustrating."

Looking at the big picture, Twitter might still become a not so reliable source for life and death weather warnings, because Elon Musk is so erratic. 

Twitter had become a somewhat reliable source of news, and now that reliability is diminishing quickly under Musk. There's been all kinds of incidents, including removing the New York Times verified badge and labeling NPR "government funded media" even though only 1% of its budget comes from the government and NPR's news content is not subject to any government oversight or control. Twitter jus did the same to CBC, the Canadian news broadcaster.

Even though Twitter did the right thing this past weekend when they reversed course and allowed the automated warnings, I have still lost trust in Twitter.

When there's a risk of severe weather, don't just rely on Twitter for warnings. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive critical weather alerts.