Hurricane Ida: It Ain't Over Yet

Galliano, Louisiana in a shambles after Hurricane Ida.
Photo from the U.S. Coast Guard

 UPDATE 4:30 PM TUESDAY

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has upgraded the flash flood risk to "High" in parts of the Northeast for tomorrow.

That's a rare highest level alert, especially for this part of the nation.  In other words, this area is in SERIOUS trouble from flooding due to former Hurricane Ida.

The "high" ranking means severe, widespread flash flooding is expected. Areas that normally don't flood could well do so.

The area of highest risk goes from the northeastern corner of West Virginia, through southern and parts of eastern Pennsylvania, the New York City metro area and Connecticut.

The remains of Ida are expected to hook up with a stalled weather front to dump at least four to eight inches of rain on this area in a day or less.  There could be a few pockets that get more than that, even. Eight inches of rain is twice what normally falls in a month in this area.

The impacts of this impending flood will almost certainly be worse than what happened with Henri recently. Of course, the ground is still sopping wet from that storm, which doesn't help.

In Vermont, there's a slight risk of flooding from this in the extreme south, basically south of Route 9.  At this point, areas north of that should be OK Forecasts might get updated and shifted, so stay tuned. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Hurricane Ida reminds me a lot of Hurricane Camille in 1969.  

Camille was even worse than Ida, but the story of the two storms is turning out to be eerily similar.

Camille roared ashore as an incredible Category 5 hurricane with top winds of 175 mph on August 17, 1969 in Pass Christian, Mississippi. The storm surge was over 24 feet there, which was at the time the record highest storm surge in U.S. history. (Katrina in 2005 topped that).

After making landfall, the remains of Camille moved inland, then bent east into West Virginia and Virginia, dumping over a foot of rain, with two feet in some locations. Most of the rain fell in just a few hours, and the resulting flash floods killed 113 people in the two states. The overall death toll from  Camille was 256.

The reason I bring all this up is the remains of Hurricane Ida are heading northeast, threatening some dangerous flooding well north of its landfall in Louisiana, especially up in Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia today, and tomorrow in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the New York City metro area.

Flood watches extend in a broad band from the Florida Panhandle up through the western and central Appalachians all the way to the Middle Atlantic States and southern New England. 

I'm not saying there's going to be up to 31 inches of rain, like Camille in Virginia  back in the summer of '69.  But broad areas will have a half foot of rain or more, and theres a chance of a foot of rain in some of these spots.  The whole area under this flood threat has had a very sodden summer, so the soils are already primed for flooding.  

In other words, this could get really bad.

For my Vermont readers, we're in better shape. There's a chance that far southern Vermont could share in the flooding, we'll have to see how far north the heavy rain gets.  Forecasts vary, but for now, different sections of the Green Mountain State look like they'll get either manageable amounts of rain from the remains of Ida, or nothing at all.

This big flood threat from ex-Ida is not exactly helpful, since the hurricane caused an immense amount of damage already. 

The levees held in New Orleans, so the city didn't flood like it did during Katrina. But levees were overtopped in many other areas, so there's extensive flooding throughout southeastern Louisiana.

Wind damage is immense. Countless homes and buildings collapsed or lost roofs. The electrical grid is in shambles, and many people will need to wait a good six weeks or even more to get their power back. 

We don't have an estimated dollar amount of damage yet. That will take a lot of time to tally. Right now, they're in search and rescue mode in Louisiana. They're not ready to do the bean counting yet. 

So far there have four deaths connected to Ida, but that toll will go up. Probably sharply. 

The remains of Ida aren't the only ex-hurricane flood threat facing a part of the United States.

Hurricane Nora crashed into the west coast of northwestern Mexico over the weekend.  Lots of wet air streaming north from that storm's remains are coming into the Desert Southwest. Flash flooding is likely once again in Arizona today because of this situation.  

Hurricane Ida: Now Awaiting Word On Just How Bad Things Got

Roofing and other material littered New Orleans'

French Quarter during Hurrcane Ida. Photo: Eric Gay/AP

 When a big, disastrous storm strikes, it often takes a day, or more often several days, to understand just how bad things got. 

We're in that mode right now with Hurricane Ida.

As we all know by now, Ida crashed ashore in Louisiana with top winds of 150 mph.  We know of one death already, but that toll will surely rise as people get out to the hardest hit areas to check and see who made it and who didn't.

Judging from the social media posts and videos, we know there's huge storm surge damage, never mind what the wind did. New Orleans is entirely blacked out as the power grid basically blew away in Ida. People were pleading on social media for help as storm surges inundated the homes they were in, but nobody could come get them. The weather was too harsh in the midst of Ida.

Early images of New Orleans this morning shows collapsed buildings, windows blown off, and parts of facades ripped off of high rises.  We haven't even gotten much out of areas closer to the landfall area yet. I'm sure the updates will show plenty of devastation. Again. 

Ida's winds have now diminished, as that happens with all hurricanes that move inland. But it looks like it will continue creating a long stripe of flooding, some of it severe, all the way to New Jersey over the next couple of days.  The potential zone of nasty flooding includes Tennessee, where a devastating flash flood earlier this month killed about 20 people.. 

I can't even begin to imagine how stressful things were in Louisiana hospitals Sunday, and how stressful they'll continue to be. The hospitals are filled to the brim with Covid patients, and they all had to ride out the Ida Sunday.  

The roof of one Louisiana hospital is seen being ripped away in video posted on social media. No word yet on what's going on with the people who were in the hospital at the time.

These same hospitals will be slammed in the coming days with Ida-related injuries and illnesses and probably lots more  Covid cases. I don't even want to think about that anymore. 

One question I keep hearing is, "Why didn't people in harm's way evacuate? They knew Ida was coming.  Yes, there were some stubborn people that didn't leave despite warnings of unsurvivable storm surges and 150 mph winds.  

Hurricane Ida ripping the roof off of a hospital in

Louisiana Sunday. 

The bigger tragedy is that a lot of people didn't have the means to leave. They were essentially abandoned.  

If you don't have a car, or money to put gas in the car or money to get a hotel room or other shelter, you don't evacuate. All you can do is sit and hope for the best. Seems like there should have been some sort of system in place to give low income people the same chance at hurricane survival as those with more means.

But I guess poor people are dispensable.   I know that's harsh, and I shouldn't talk since I myself don't have a good plan in mind to help in these situations. But it just feels like we could do better.

Meanwhile, as Ida departs, people in Louisiana have a rough few weeks ahead of them.  Power will be out for weeks in some areas, which means no air conditioning. That's dangerous in a humid place like the Deep South.

The flood damage alone has to be immense, and will take months or even years to repair.  That's on top of the ongoing rebuilding from destructive hurricanes that hit Louisiana last year. Luckily, Hurricane Ida did not directly hit the areas that got nailed by three hurricanes last year. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

I wouldn't worry too much about Ida around here, at least at this point. 

Torrential showers that rolled through northern Vermont this morning had nothing to do with Ida, by the way.  The air has gotten very humid ahead of a cold front, so the pooled moisture made things ripe for downpours.  A disturbance ahead of the approaching cold front triggered those heavy showers.

The remains of Ida, as noted, will spread flooding rains through the Tennessee Valley and on into the Middle Atlantic States and probably southern New England. 

There's a lot of questions as to how far north those rains will get Wednesday night and Thursday.  Far southern Vermont in particular could get some drenching downpours from Ida, so we'll have to watch that.  The southern end of Vermont is still prone to flooding after a wet summer there.

Computer models are all over the place about the amount of rain and whether any of it gets as far as northern Vermont. Stay tuned. 

Hurricane Ida As Bad As It Gets

Hurricane Ida had its expected burst of rapid intensification overnight and early this morning and at last report early this morning, it had top winds of 145 mph. 

Extreme Hurricane Ida on approach to Louisiana
early this morning. 

Oops. It's still strengthening rapidly as I write this at 7 a.m.. Top winds are now 150 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. 

Conditions were already going downhill fast along the Louisiana coast and it will just get worse and worse as the day goes on. 

Everything about this is just beyond awful.  The storm surge near and just west of the mouth of the Mississippi River will be up to 16 feet. Large areas of the coastline in Louisiana and Mississippi should expect to see storm surges of six to 12 feet.

I hate to say it, but anybody who didn't evacuate from the large low lying areas where these storm surges are to hit will probably die. It's almost impossible to survive that. 

I worry about the people who didn't evacuate, either because they didn't have the transportation, money or means to go or because they were stubborn.  I hope everybody got out, and I hope there's still nobody stuck in gridlocked traffic as they tried to escape, as everything heading out of the hurricane zone yesterday was a parking lot.

Here's what the National Weather Service in New Orleans wrote last night. It's about as strong a message as you can send.  

"Once sustained tropical force winds move in first responders will button down and YOU WILL BE ON YOUR OWN.  Please understand this, there is the possibility that conditions could be unlivable along the coast for some time and areas around New Orleans and Baton Rouge could be without power for weeks. 

We have all seen the destruction and pain caused by Harvey, Michael and Laura. Anticipate devastation on this level and if it doesn't happen we should all count our blessings. Please again if you have the means to leave and you are 1. in a mandatory or voluntary evacuation zone, LEAVE. 2. are in  a very flood prone area, LEAVE. 3. are uncomfortable and have trees around your house, LEAVE."   

Most hurricane victims drown, either because of the storm surge or due to inland flooding.

There will be huge inland flooding, with up to two feet of rain forecast.  After it comes ashore, the remains of Ida could cause dangerous flooding in the coming days all the way up to Pennsylvania and possibly southern New England.

But that's down the road.  For today and this evening, the National Weather Service in New Orleans is warning residents of New Orleans, Baton Rouge and nearby areas to expect winds of over 110 mph, with 10 to as much as 20 inches of rain.   Those storm surges will inundate wide areas, include heavily populated areas around Lake Pontchartrain.

Basically, the storm surge will be as bad or nearly as bad as Katrina in 2005. And the winds will be quite a bit stronger than in Katrina when it made landfall.

That is all incredibly dangerous. And will be incredibly destructive and deadly.  I, and everybody else, is dreading this. 

Hurricane Ida will come ashore later today.  It's still in a healthy environment, so it could strengthen more.  Even if some miracle happens and Ida starts to weaken now, it's too little, too late. 

Ida is an incredibly strong, self sustaining hurricane, so anything that can weaken it - dry air entrainment from inland, an eye wall replacement cycle, or unexpected upper level winds  - won't come fast enough to prevent Ida from being a powerful, incredibly dangerous hurricane at landfall, even if top winds fall from their current screaming levels.

And, as noted, the hurricane could actually strengthen further. 

By the way, the eye wall replacement cycle, for those uninitiated, is when the strongest storms immediately around the eye die off to be replaced by another circle of intense storms around the eye that's a little larger. This can weaken the top winds of a hurricane some, but also increase the area raked by the strongest winds.

It's unclear whether Ida will go through this cycle before landfall or not.  I'm guessing not. This eye wall replacement nonsense I just wrote about won't matter much anyway. This is going to be rough, to say the least. A tragic day in American history. As if we haven't had enough of them lately. 

Hurricane Ida As Bad As It Gets; Enormous Trouble For Louisiana

UPDATE 2:15 pm. Saturday

Compare this satellite view of Hurricane Ida taken

early this afternoon compared to the early morning

image below and you can see that it has strengthen

and organized a lot since then

As expected, Hurricane Ida is gaining strength pretty rapidly. 

I wrote the post you see below at around 8 a.m., and in the six hours since, the hurricane has looked a lot more organized and symmetrical, and a well-defined eye formed.  An increase in strength usually lags a little while after an eye forms and a hurricane gets more organized.

That strengthening trend has definitely begun.  As of 1 p.m., strongest sustained winds with Ida were estimated at 100 mph.   Ida was moving over very warm Gulf water and upper level winds, or lack thereof, would encourage further strengthening, possibly rapid strengthening. 

This remains a huge, devastating threat to Louisiana. Hurricane Ida's track is now just a little bit east of where it was forecast, which is potentially bad.  If it keeps on that slightly more easterly track, it'll come ashore closer to New Orleans, and make things there worse.

However, strong hurricanes tend to wobble a bit in a subtle zigzag pattern, so it might sneak back west a tad. Who knows?

Wherever Ida hits, there will be real danger. To emphasize things, here's what the National Weather Service office in New Orleans tweeted this afternoon (capital letters theirs, not mine): "We once again stress that if you are under evacuation order or can leave, PLEASE LEAVE., DEVASTING conditions WILL happen." 

The evacuation itself is beginning to worry me. 

 Highways in the area are bumper to bumper, with some accidents and vehicle breakdowns making things worse. You want everybody off the highways before the rough weather arrives. People can be sitting ducks for real danger if they're on the road and the hurricane arrives.

There's still a little time to get everybody out of the way, so this piece is not a crisis yet.  But it's looking a little too chaotic for my tastes.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, 8 PM

Meteorologists for the past day or two have been filled with dread over Hurricane Ida.

For good reason. 

Hurricane Ida already looking ferocious early this morning

on this satellite image. It will only get stronger as the day

goes on and poses an enormous threat to Louisiana.

Everything is set up for it to be an extremely powerful hurricane as it roars northward through the Gulf of Mexico today and tomorrow with its sights set on Louisiana.

It's the worst kind of hurricane. It's expected to be a Category 4 storm at landfall and will be strengthening probably all the way to the coast.  There is going to be huge destruction in Louisiana, which has already been battered by several hurricanes in the past year or two

You could by yesterday that Ida was going to be in trouble. You could see it blossom from a disorganized tropical storm to a well-organized hurricane in just hours.  The center of Ida crossed the rugged terrain of western Cuba. You'd expect that land interaction to really disrupt Ida's circulation.

Instead, Hurricane Ida just seemed to hiccup, and this morning was rapidly developing once again.  After Ida emerged into the Gulf of Mexico early today, two extremely intense thunderstorm complexes formed on opposite sides of the eye and started to swirl around the center. That setup is usually a sign that a hurricane will intensify quickly.

So far, 150,000 people have been ordered out and away from the expected path of Ida in Louisiana. There really isn't time to evacuate all of New Orleans, but people there are being urged to go today.

New Orleans erected a $20 billion levee system after the extreme devastation of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. I guess this will be a test of whether these levees can hold back Ida's expected 11-foot surge. Meanwhile, more than a foot of wind-driven rain is expected to fall on New Orleans.  Will the pumps be able to at least partially keep up with the flooding rains, or will power fails and such silence the pumps, with extreme flooding resulting? 

Unfortunately, that's the question right now. 

By the way, Hurricane Ida is forecast to make landfall on the exact 16th anniversary of Katrina's strike on Louisiana.

Other parts of Louisiana and Mississippi are going to get bulldozed by this, too.  Remember, hospitals in this region are already overwhelmed with Covid cases.  Dozens or hundreds of injuries and other emergencies from Ida won't be managed as well as usual.  This problem will extend well inland, as torrential rains will spread dangerous flooding all the way to Tennessee and probably beyond.

I know a lot of this seems like hype. After all, didn't the last one -Henri in the Northeast - turn out to be not as bad as advertised?

Sure, there's a chance Ida might not strengthen as much as forecast. Perhaps the Gulf Coast will get lucky and some dry air will get sucked into the circulation, causing Ida to falter.

Don't count on that.  Hurricane Ida will travel over super warm Gulf of Mexico waters. Such hot water is jet fuel for hurricanes. Upper level winds will be light, so the thunderstorms that surround Ida's center will continue to get stronger, thereby boosting the hurricane further. 

A lot of it comes down to exactly where Hurricane Ida comes ashore. The hurricane will be catastrophic no matter where it lands. So I guess you want it to come in where it will affect the least amount of people.

The worst case scenario is if it comes in just west of New Orleans. That would put NOLA into the most extreme push of storm surges, and the strongest winds.  

People in Louisiana don't have much time left to prepare or get out of Dodge. The weather will start going downhill this afternoon or tonight in southern Louisiana. Gasoline, drinking water and other supplies are probably going fast.

People who are sheltering in place will face no electricity and even worse gas and supply shortages in the days immediately after the storm, so that will be an issue.

Even if everybody heeds warnings and gets out of the way, many of the deaths and injuries from hurricanes comes after the wind dies down.  People get hurt chain sawing their way out of a sea of fallen trees, they have heart attacks and strokes from the stress, come down with heat-related illnesses since there's no air conditioning, or get hurt or injured in a myriad of ways during the immediate post-hurricane cleanup.

And, as mentioned, there's Covid, and the highly contagious Delta variant of that virus. Put a bunch of unvaccinated people in emergency shelters and that just makes the wave of Covid hospitalizations and deaths that much worse.

So yeah, I'm absolutely dreading this storm. We'd be crazy not to.

A Weird, Flooding Vermont Storm Thursday and Ida

Yesterday's stalled thunderstorm over central Vermont
made a spectacle of itself and was seen far and wide in the
Green Mountain State. This is the storm as seen through
the windshield of a car traveling southbound on 
Interstate 89 in Winooski, about 55 miles from the storm.

UPDATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON

It turns out there were a couple late breaking damage reports from this storm. 

Reports are that Texas Falls Road near Texas Gap just outside of Granville was washed out.  

I'm not surprised given the torrential rains in the area and the steep terrain at that locale. 

It also looks like wind associated with the storm uprooted some trees on Patterson Hill Road in Granville. 

I'm not surprised by that, either 

The storm became warned as severe for a time late Thursday afternoon when it was intense enough to cause strong winds. That was about the time the photo in this post was taken, and those were when the storm's updrafts were strongest, and most likely to produce some downburst type winds. 

UPDATE: 3:30 pm

There were no reporting stations in Vermont that I'm aware of that got bullseyed by this storm.

The nearest town to the storm that reported was Rochester, which reported 0.25 inches of rain.  Rochester was outside the area where the storm stalled, so that makes sense.  Braintree, a little east of Granville, also got 0.25 inches of rain, but they were also outside the footprint of the stalled storm.

I also don't see any confirmed storm damage reports.  That's because this dangerous storm luckily hit a pretty remote area.  Imagine the damage if this storm stalled a little further north over Waitsfield, or a little further south over Killington! 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 A small, strange, strong and potentially dangerous thunderstorm developed over the central Green Mountains Thursday and made quite a spectacle of itself.  

It wasn't big in area, but just sat over the mountains near Granville and Hancock for hours, likely unleashing a damaging flash flood in a relatively small area and befuddling any weather geek that was witnessing it. 

Weather is strange and there goes your proof. 

As we all know, it was hotter than hell in Vermont Thursday. Heat indexes in the Champlain Valley were in the upper 90s and the humidity was unbearable.

With a cold front slowly approaching from Canada, it seemed like we were ripe for thunderstorms. But forecasters were correctly unimpressed.  The cold front wasn't close enough to fire up a lot of thunderstorms and there were few other triggers for them. 

There was a thick layer of very warm air in the atmosphere, and any updraft would have to poke through that warm layer to erupt into a thunderstorm. That would be hard to do.

The only thing that could trigger a storm would be if terrain created a decent enough updraft to get things going.

Sure enough, storms Thursday were few and far between and weak and short lived. Except in the mountains east of Middlebury. 

An updraft against the slopes of the Green Mountains managed to break through that layer of warm air and triggered a thunderstorm after 3 p.m.  

And there it sat over that mountain. And sat. And sat. It finally moved out of its position shortly before 9 p.m. and drifted slowly south before eventually dissipating.. 

Radar estimated two to six inches of rain, possibly even more, fell under that stalled thunderstorm. The area where it hit is pretty remote, so reports haven't really filtered in yet as to how extensive the flooding was. 

We know it had to cover a rather small area, because the storm itself did.  The downpours were over steep and rugged terrain, with plenty of small streams and vulnerable gravel back roads and such.  So the flash flooding could have caused some real damage. We'll just have to watch the news later.

Meteorologists and weather geeks will puzzle over this storm for awhile, as it was a strange one, but the National Weather Service in South Burlington was very kind and clued me in on a lot of what was going on when I asked last night 

The wind through a deep layer of the atmosphere was all coming from the same direction.  So that updraft that started with the mountain sustained itself and helped the storm "back build."  That meant as the original storm began to move off the mountain it was anchored to, a new storm took its place on the mountain and the process repeated itself over and over again. For hours. 

The storm was isolated and surrounded by generally clear skies, so it was visible from great distances, often 70 or more miles away.  Residents of the Burlington and Plattsburgh areas had an awesome view of it. 

At sunset, the towering cloud glowed bright orange.  As darkness settled in, the cloud crackled with lightning, providing probably the best natural light show of the summer. The cold front approaching from the north was finally able to nudge the storm off the mountains near Granville around 9 a.m. as mentioned, and the flash flood threat eased.

That well anticipated cold front was limping through Vermont early this morning.  It is already less humid in the north and will turn less humid south during the day.

That's only a temporary reprieve, as the humid floods back in Sunday and Monday.  Luckily that bout of oppressive weather won't last long as a stronger push of drier air will come in for the middle of next week

FUTURE  HURRICANE IDA

Tropical Storm Ida was strengthening steadily as it approached western Cuba this morning.  Its sustained winds were up to 60 mph at last check.  

Forecasters are really, really worried about Ida. At this point, all signs point toward it strengthening rapidly and striking somewhere in or near Louisiana Sunday night. The exact path is still in question, but it looks inevitable that it will hit somewhere on  the central Gulf Coast with devastating winds, storm surges and inland flooding.

Louisiana was hit by three hurricanes last year, two of which were quite powerful, and the state hasn't recovered from those. Now it looks like another hurricane disaster is headed their way.  They can't catch a break. 

Current National Hurricane Center forecasts have top winds of 115 mph with storm surges exceeding eight feet in many coastal locations, so this will be a $1 billion plus disaster yet again.  Gulf of Mexico waters are extremely warm, which is jet fuel for hurricanes. 

Ida could even be worse and stronger than the NHC's gloomy prediction. 

One More Awfully Hot Day In Vermont; Hurricane Threat In Gulf?

Another tropical dawn today over St. Albans, Vermont.

It's almost September, so the heat and humidity will

have to disappear at some point, right?

UPDATE: 4:00 pm. THURSDAY

Heat indexes, as expected, are in the upper 90s this afternoon in the Champlain Valley of Vermont. So it's awful. Actual temperatures are in the low 90s in the Champlain Valley, and in the upper 80s elsewhere

On the bright side, this will very, very likely be the hottest day until next summer. 

As expected, thunderstorms are few and far between this afternoon. A layer of warm air overhead is preventing the tall clouds you need for thunderstorms to really take off

Every once in awhile, thunderstorms can break that "cap" and really develop. So the rest of the day and evening in Vermont will feature few thunderstorms, but a few of the ones that do develop could get strong very quickly. One such storm abruptly developed northeast of Middlebury at mid afternoon, and it was probably causing a pocket of gusty winds and torrential downpours.

The few storms that are forming aren't moving forward all that fast, so there could be small pockets of flash flooding with these. 

That disturbance in the Caribbean I mentioned this morning has developed into a tropical depression, and will grow into a tropical storm pretty much any minute from now. It still looks like a very bad threat to somewhere on the U.S Gulf Coast by around Sunday. 

More on that in tomorrow's post

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 

As noted yesterday, it's been awfully hot and humid in Vermont for over a week now, and today will offer absolutely no relief. Unless you count an isolated thunderstorm or two, which will only add to the humidity.  

There is still a cold front in the schedule, though, and you'll really feel the difference tomorrow. 

Yesterday actually felt a little better than it has been lately because, despite temperatures that reached 90 in some spots, a bit of drier air was able to mix down from aloft during the afternoon.

Dew points went into the low 60s, which is still a little humid, but not nearly as bad as dew points of near 70, which has been the case lately.

Unfortunately, the dew points are back up, and there's no drier air a few thousand feet above us to mix down when the sun shines strongly this afternoon.  Heat advisories are up for the broader valleys of Vermont today, as it'll feel like its in the mid or upper 90s. 

The actual temperatures will be well into the 80s to near 90.  If Burlington makes it to 90 today, we'll have an official heat wave, meaning three days in a row will have gotten to 90 degrees or more. 

Because there is a cold front lurking to our north, there will be enough instability to fire off some thunderstorms this afternoon.  It's not an ideal set up for storms, so there will be hit and miss, mostly miss.

A few spots could get torrential downpours but a lot of places will get nothing, or at least very little rain.

You'll go to bed tonight in yet another muggy, icky evening, but changes will be afoot as you try to sleep.

That cold front will slip down from Canada in the pre-dawn hours with little fanfare.   Especially in northern Vermont, you'll notice a change in the air when you wake up, and that relief will fully engulf the state during the day. It will feel awesome. Sunny, breezy, much cooler and the long period of high humidity will be gone at last.

Or will it?

First the bad news. It's going to quickly get wicked humid again.  You might notice it a little later Saturday and it will get worse Sunday and even more awful Monday.

Then the good news. The next bout of oppressive weather won't last so long.  As it stands now, the humidity will get whisked away by another cold front or cold fronts. 

Also, we're needing the rain again in northern Vermont.  The weekend and early next week look unsettled, on top of all that humidity. That means there will be a good chance of on and off showers Saturday through Monday.

HURRICANE FEARS

As of this writing early this Thursday morning, there were not full-blown tropical storms or hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean, but that seems destined to change and soon.

I usually don't like to hype a big storm before it forms and before I think I know where it's going.

However, there's so much agreement among the computer models that a hurricane is targeting the Gulf of Mexico and possibly the U.S. Gulf Coast that I have to say something.  There was a disturbance south of Jamaica this morning that was getting better organized, and pretty quickly at that.

It's expected to move northwest toward the Gulf of Mexico.  It also appears as if atmospheric conditions are ripe enough to organize this thing into a tropical storm, then probably a hurricane. 

The water in the Gulf of Mexico is pretty much as hot as it can get.  Hot water is jet fuel for hurricanes, so if there is not much in the way of strong upper level winds to tear a nascent hurricane apart, there's a chance this thing could turn into a monster.

We don't know where this possible hurricane will make landfall, but Texas and Louisiana could well be under the gun. 

Some of the models bring this wannabe hurricane into southwestern Louisiana as a powerhouse. Which would be incredibly bad since that region was devastated by Hurricanes Laura and Delta last year. Plus that region's health care network is next to collapsing under the weight of surging coronavirus cases.

A big weather disaster would just be beyond awful.

Since this wannabe hurricane hasn't even formed yet, big changes are coming in the forecast for this thing? Will it interact with land and weaken as a result?  Will it take full advantage of the hot water in the Gulf of Mexico and turn into something particularly dangerous?  Where will it hit land? At this stage, it could be Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama.

Stay tuned.

Yes, Vermont Has Had A Humid, Icky Summer. Especially Nights

Flowers in my St. Albans, Vermont garden on a humid

morning this past July. It's been a VERY humid

summer in Vermont. 

If you think this summer in Vermont has been more humid Florida than refreshing cool Green Mountain State,  you're right.  

The normal spells of cool, dry air have been hard to come by this summer and August has been particularly terrible in that regard. 

One way to judge the humidity of a particular summer is to look at whether there's been a lot of warm nights. The temperatures stays up on muggy nights  compared to evenings when the humidity is low.

 If you get a night in Vermont that stays at 70 or above, it's stuffy, no matter how you look at it. 

To prove my point that this summer has been a humid one around here, the following paragraphs might have more than a few numbers. But it's pretty illustrative. 

So far this year, there have been 18 days in Burlington, Vermont that failed to get under 70 degrees for an overnight low. 

I haven't been able to check all years, but the number of days that failed to get below 70 in Burlington  seems iclose to a record.  Last year is considered the hottest summer on record in Burlington, but there were only 10 days that never got below 70 degrees. 

The year 1949, which had the most 90s on record, had only 14 days that stayed above 70.   This year so far we've had twelve 90 degree days, definitely well above normal but not close to the record of 26 such days. 

The year 2018  is so far barely beating out this year for stuffy nights .  There was 19 days at or above 70 that year. The year 2018 was the third hottest summer on record. It looks like this summer will come in fourth of fifth on that list.  

The bouts of stuffy nights this summer have been long lasting, We had four consecutive nights in late June in which that temperature stayed at or above 70 degrees.

July was regarded as relatively "cool" but that's because we had so many clouds that daytime temperatures were suppressed. We still had two 70 degree nights in July and many overnight "lows" that month were in the mid and upper 60s.    

Burlington had five consecutive days that stayed at or above 70 degrees from August 9-13, the longest stretch since 1901. We just endured a full week in which the low temperature was 69 or higher, with five of those seven nights staying at or above 70 degrees.

The more consecutive nights in which it is uncomfortable for sleeping, the more dangerous it gets. Many houses in Vermont have no air conditioning.  The longer a period of icky humid weather lasts, the more it can wear a person down.  That gets risky for people with underlying health conditions.  That's why we're always told to get people into cool spots like air conditioned rooms to give them and their bodies a break.

This morning in Burlington spelled slight "relief" as it was 66 degrees for  a low. But we have more Florida like weather to endure the next two days or so. 

All this mugginess and these uncomfortable nights in Vermont are consistent with climate change.  The world is getting hotter, so you it stands to reason that it would get hotter. Hotter air in general can hold more moisture, so it stands to reason that we'd get more humid weather, especially if the air flow is off the tropical Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico, which is frequent in the summer.

In the short term, relief is on the way. It's the end of August, so cold fronts are starting to have a little more oomph than they did midsummer.

A cold front is coming through Thursday night, and you are going to LOVE Friday.  The sun will be out, daytime temperatures will be only in the low 70s. More importantly, dew points will be in the 50s.  Dew points temperatures are a good measure of how uncomfortable it is out there.  

If the dew point is near 70, which it has been most of the time in the past week. If dew points are in the 50s, it's very comfortable.

We stand the risk of having more bouts of humidity as we go into September, but those periods will get shorter and shorter and weaker and weaker as we head into autumn.  It looks like it might get quite sticky again early next week, but that spell shouldn't last nearly as long as the one we are enduring now. 

Henri's Outer Edges Made For Photogenic Skies Over Northwest Vermont

Pure tropical air ahead of Henri created some Miami-like
skies over Colchester Vermont Saturday evening. 

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Henri's approach and passage through southern New England, and the pure tropical air it brought north to Vermont, made this probably the prettiest such system to affect northern Vermont.  

Even if that effect was slight to say the least.

Still, the sky over northwestern Vermont because of Henri were spectacular.

The haze from western wildfires was routed by the clean, but oppressive pure tropical air.  The sky Sunday afternoon was some of the bluest I can remember.  

Dying rain bands from Henri produced nothing more than the lightest sprinkle, but created some gorgeous rainbows on two evenings in a row. 

Mid-level cloudiness associated with Henri also created some gorgeous patterns in the sky Monday morning, and prompted a gorgeous orange sunset Monday evening. 

I took photos, and a few of them are in this post. Scroll down to see them all.  Enjoy! 

By Sunday afternoon, the sky turned perhaps the deepest blue
I've ever seen, thanks to pristine, but very humid air
brought in part by Henri straight from the Caribbean. 

Toward Sunday evening, the dying remains of an outer rainband
from Henri, created a delicate pattern and a complex sky over
St. Albans, Vermont.

That dying rain band then produced a lovely rainbow. Here
you can see a dragonfly scooting by in front of the rainbow.

Mid-level clouds from Henri created these beautiful 
patterns in the sky over Burlington, Vermont Monday morning.

Another rainbow, fainter than the night before, with no
actual rain, from Henri's remains as viewed from 
St. Albans, Vermont Monday evening

 

As Henri began to depart southern New England Monday
evening, it threw out a nice sunset
over St. Albans, Vermont 

Henri Gone; Underperformed Thank Goodness But Still A Very Weird Storm

  Check out this graphic from NBC10 in Boston showing
the bizarre path of Henri through New England. Notice
at one point it ended up passing over the spot
where it came ashore a day earlier.

 I've been intentionally mean to former Hurricane/Tropical Storm Henri because I've been calling it a weird storm right along.  

I can't help it. It was a  very weird storm, with its odd path almost north from a spot off of North Carolina straight to New England. 

Then, almost due west from landfall in Rhode Island to the Catskills, then it's remnants staggering very slowly east again across southern New England to near the Maine coast this morning. 

I brought this tidbit up once, but I'll have to do it again, because this is weird, too.   

Earlier this summer, Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall on July 9 at 12:15 p.m. in Westerly, Rhode Island. On Sunday, Henri made landfall at 12:15 p.m. in - you guessed it- Westerly, Rhode Island.  The exact center of Henri's remnants was hard to discern late yesterday, but it appears that center passed over Westerly again on its way eastward toward the coast.  

Oh, and get this: In 1985 there was another Tropical Storm Henri, a weak thing that limped ashore in - oh why not? Westerly, Rhode Island. 

I'm joking around a bit with 2021's version of Henri, but of course it did do quite a bit of damage, just not nearly as much as it could have had things gone just a little differently. 

Rainfall totals from Henri closed in on nine inches in and near New York City.  Quite a few homes and buildings suffered serious flood damage and many highways closed because they were under water.

As Henri's remains drifted across southern New England Monday, it managed to produce at least three weak tornadoes in Massachusetts.  Each one had winds of only 60 to 70 mph, had brief paths and caused minor damage.

Here in Vermont, there was a tremendous sigh of relief on Monday.  Nothing really bad happened with Henri.  There could have been some very destructive flooding in southern Vermont. Those expected floods would have come during the same week as the tenth anniversary of Tropical Storm Irene's deadly, massive flood in Vermont. 

Henri's rains mostly missed the Green Mountain state. Instead, benign tropical showers scattered themselves through southern Vermont Sunday and Monday amid all the humidity hanging around the state.  Northern areas got pretty much no rain at all from Henri.

To the folks that are mad or upset that Henri turned out not as bad as feared and the forecasts were "hype," listen up.

Yeah, if the forecasts disrupted your plans, that's an inconvenience. Count yourself lucky.  What if it was worse than expected, enough to threaten your life? As for me, I'll go with the inconvenience, thanks.

We're now just entering the peak of hurricane season, and several systems are starting to bubble up in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.  It's way too soon whether any of these will have an effect on the United States.

If any of these storms do approach land, I'm OK if they are as weird as Henri was.  I just don't want them to be any worse than Henri. Time will tell.

Horrific Flash Flood In Tennessee; Vermont Dodges Henri's Bullet

Destruction from extreme flash flooding in central

Tennessee this past weekend. Up to 17 inches

of rain fell in a few hours, sending a tsunami-like

flash flood that killed at least 22 people. 

 While all eyes have been on Tropical Storm Henri over the weekend, a incredible, and terribly tragic  flood just struck middle Tennessee.

On the western side of the upper level low pressure system that tugged Henri toward New England, an incredibly prolific training thunderstorm focused on an area west of Nashville.  

Training thunderstorms, as you might remember, are basically a series of thunderstorms that go over the same path, much like boxcars moving along railroad tracks.

This type of setup often causes scary flash floods, but this one went above and beyond, with tragic results.  At least 22 people died in the flash flood in and near Waverly, Tennessee and many more are missing. 

Up to 17 inches of rain fell in less than 24 hours, shattering Tennessee's record for 24 hour rainfall by at least three inches.

What was described as a tsunami caused by the rain roared into Waverly, sweeping away cars, houses, buildings and people. It came so fast and so hard that nothing could be done to rescue people caught in the torrents.i'm reading terrible story after terrible story about this flood.  Twin babies were killed when they were swept from their father's arms. 

A man names Wayne Spears, a foreman at Loretta Lynn's ranch, went out to the barn to check on the animals when the flash flood roared in, sweeping him away to his death. 

This type of mega-flash flood is getting more common as climate change continues. The warmer air can hold more moisture than before, so under the right circumstances, this moisture can be wrung out in greater quantities than before.

This really was a sneaker attack, in a way.  Everybody, including me, was all Henri, Henri, Henri, during the weekend, when sadly, the real awful death and destruction was in Tennessee.

Waverly wasn't the only place to have such record rainfall this weekend.  This wasn't nearly as dramatic, but New York City had its wettest hour on record Saturday night when just under two inches of rain fell within 60 minutes.

HENRI UPDATE

That was part of a storm total of 4.45 inches Saturday night. So far, Central Park has gotten 7.3 inches of rain from Tropical Storm Henri, and it was still coming down as of early this morning.   

The cloud pattern over the Northeast for what was Tropical

Storm Henri makes for a pretty pattern in this 

satellite photo. From the ground, Henri's clouds have

been photogenic from the ground, too. Vermont dodged

a bullet with Henri, with little if any flooding so far

Most of Henri's flooding was a west and a little south of where it had been anticipated a few days ago.

 The Catskills, the New York City metro area, the northern half of New Jersey and the northeastern corner of Pennsylvania got the worst of it.   Most of this area got four to nine inches of rain, and it was still coming down as of early this morning. 

The remains of Henri having made it west to the Catskills, will stagger back to the east today, prompting more flood warnings in places like Connecticut and the lower Hudson Valley of New York.

Vermont really dodged a bullet with this one.  There was potential for some serious flooding in the far southern part of the state, but that did not happen.  There is still a flood watch in the southeast corner of Vermont, but I don't think the trouble will be widespread.

Flood watches that had extended into central Vermont have been lifted, as no flooding is anticipated now. Though some showers and thunderstorms might develop as a result of Henri in southern Vermont, most of them will not be enough to cause flooding, except maybe in Windham County.

There's a very low chance of showers and thunderstorms in northern Vermont. The only effects we've had from Henri so far is beautiful skies and incredibly clean air. 

We've had a lot of haze and even smoke from wildfires out west all summer so the deep blue skies in northern Vermont yesterday and this morning were a treat.  As was the total lack of haze. The Green Mountains finally looked, well, green, and not blurry and slate blue from the haze in the air.

The air we are enjoying now has come all the way from the currently wildfire-free tropics, so it's pretty pristine.  Basically we in  Vermont are breathing air that was in Barbados or some place like that a week ago.

Video from Tennessee.  Mobile uses click on the hyperlink, others, click on the video itself for a better view.

House being swept away in Tennessee:

Live Blog: Henri Floods New England, New York, New Jersey, PA

9:15 pm EDT Sunday

I'm going to call it a night already and then revive this first thing in the morning. The heaviest rain and the biggest flood threat has shifted west, at least for the overnight, into southern New York, northern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania.

When the remains of Henri reverse course back toward the east tomorrow, the threat of flooding in southern Vermont would come back. As I noted numerous times, this is a weird, weird storm so I don't believe anything until I see it.  

Expect surprises, good or bad.  But at least for us in Vermont so far, this has been a piece of cake. Let that continue, please.

8:12 pm EDT Sunday

Decayed outer rain band of Tropical Storm Henri made it 
all the way up to St. Albans, in northwestern Vermont
this evening, creating this lovely rainbow. 
You can sort of see a second rainbow to the righ

I don't want to minimize the severity of the flooding and the danger from Henri occurring now, mostly in southern New York and New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania.  

But you can tell from these posts that from my perch in St. Albans, Vermont, the fact that the tropics have been brought north to me, I'm absolutely astounded by the skies.

Everything I've seen today is surely just typical for Caribbean islands, but since we don't ever get that type of thing up here in Vermont, it's just wonderful, to be honest.

I was fascinated by the deep blue tropical skies. the balmy east winds that are just like tropical trade winds, and the delicate clouds of Henri's dying rain bands.

It got even better at sunset tonight in St. Albans, Vermont.  A dying Henri rain band approaching from the east built a spectacular rainbow. Almost all the rain was aloft. All we got was a sprinkle. But that evening rainbow just made me happy.  You can see why in the photo. 

8:06 pm EDT Sunday

So interesting, at least for now, that the heavy rains with Henri are movin so far west that southern Vermont is in the clear, at least for now. Connecticut, where I thought the worst of the flooding might happen is in the clear at this hour too.

The worst rains of Henri are now in the Catskills and in the southern Hudson Valley and northern New Jersey. This seems to be the place that will get the worst flooding from Henri.  Up to eight inches of rain are in the forecast for those areas I just described.

I'm not sure how things will evolve tomorrow as the remains of Henri turn around and head back east. I knew this would be a weird, weird, system.  It's even weirder than I imagines.

6:27 pm EDT Sunday

This is just a weather nerd geeking out. The pretty, rather unstable looking clouds I just took a photo of over St. Albans, Vermont are the decayed remnant of an initial rain band with Tropical Storm Henri.  

On the edges of a tropical storm or hurricane, you get outer bands of rough weather, They come in, and you get strong, gusty winds and torrential rains, then they move on.  

Subsequent bands get worse and worse until you are in the teeth of a dangerous hurricane.

The remains of the outer rain bands of Henri obviously petered out by the time they got to northwest Vermont.  It was still interesting though that when these clouds arrived, the wind picked up from the east in the 10-20 mph range

Until this, the winds had been calm all day  These breezes were certainly welcome on this humid evening. But they are also a ghost of what had been a hurricane. 

6:00 pm EDT Sunday

Short term at least, highest flash flood risk is in extreme northeast Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and southeastern New York. 

5:55 pm EDT Sunday

I don't want to minimize things, especially because former tropical systems always surprise with local downpours, but I'm a LITTLE less worried about southern Vermont. Keep your guard up though!  With tropical air like this, nasty, horrible flash flooding is always possible!  At least so far we are far, far, far short of re-living Tropical Storm Irene.

5:16 pm EDT Sunday

As of 5 p.m., Tropical Storm Henri's center was 20 miles southeast of Hartford, Connecticut. Not that it matters anymore. Flood-producing rains continue mostly west of its center. 

5:13 pm EDT Sunday

Some impressive Henri-related rainfall totals already coming in. As of late this afternoon:

36 hours. Some specific rainfall reports: Jamesburg NJ 8.36" Brooklyn Heights NY 7.82" Plainsboro NJ 7.50" Hopewell NJ 6.69" Central Park 6.35" Surf City NJ 5.81" JFK 4.36" Ardmore PA 4.25" Groton CT 2.59"

4:30 pm EDT Sunday

Can I just say how beautifully clean and blue the sky over St. Albans, Vermont is right now in the air directly from the tropics? 

 It's such a lovely, brief reprieve from the hazy, smoky air we've had most of the summer from western forest fires, and a relief from that smoky, hazy air which will surely return and last for the next month or two?  

The beautiful, deep blue is almost, but not quite, worth the extreme humidity we're enduring. 

4:00 pm EDT Sunday

In their late afternoon forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is really hedging their bets, which is very, very wise. 

Here's a quote from the discussion:

"We continue to remain on the northern edge of a sharp north to south precip gradient, which makes for a challenging forecast. It's always extremely challenging to pinpoint exact locations of qpf associated with a slow moving, weakening tropical system and convection. This becomes a nowcasting type of scenario on Monday."

So, some translations:

QPF is expected  precipitation. Convection is showers and thunderstorms. Nowcasting is updating localized forecasts pretty much minute by minute just before an event actually happens. 

In other words, if you're in a flood prone area, it's best to keep up with weather updates through the day Monday.

My takeaway, anyway, from this logic is there is the potential for flash flooding in south central and central Vermont, but we really won't know for sure until we see how things play out during the day on Monday/.

Scenarios range from no biggie to HOLY CRAP! in some localized spots.  Things might be manageable in most places, but could get out of control in a handful of others. Or not.

Far northern Vermont looks rather safe at this point.

However, I've been most worried about far southern Vermont right along, and that continues to be the cross that we bear. 

As of late this afternoon, there was already a flood advisory in far southern Vermont, as some bands of torrential rains have already blown through the southern tip of Vermont.

Weather radar shows a really, really nasty band of torrential rain moving east to west across far southern Vermont after 4 p.m.

'

The question now is, with Henri moving slowly to the northwest, then expected to turn east, will torrential rain linger over Vermont's southernmost two counties well into Monday? Definitely a tricky forecast.

To me, it looks like far southern Vermont is on the edge of the heaviest, scariest downpours. I'm not sure if this will be a so-so flash flood down there or something really awful.  Bennington and Windham  counties are definitely the worry spot of Vermont tonight and tomorrow. Fingers crossed! 

 

3:55 pm EDT Sunday

Interesting updates coming in now from National Weather Service office in South Burlington. Just a very slight chance of rain in northwest Vermont through this event.  Even central Vermont is downgraded to a 50-50 shot with perhaps locally heavy rain in spots.  If this trend continues, this will be a strictly southern Vermont event, which is the way this summer has been.

3:52 p.m. EDT Sunday

Not important except to weather geeks, but interesting happenings in the sky in northwest Vermont now.  Band of clouds associated with Henri coming in from the east. The sky over us had been cluttered by towering cumulus, but those are evaporating in advance of cloud band. Temporarily most clear and hot and humid over St. Albans, Vermont now

3:34 p.m. EDT Sunday

NYC Central Park, NYC in general just can't catch a break from Henri. After 4.45 inches of rain last night, another 1.31 inches so far this afternoon and still raining heavily. BTW, the 1.94 inches in one hour in Central Park last night was the most rain in one hour in NYC history. 

3:28 pm EDT Sunday

Classic New England Tropical Storm conditions, Windsor Locks, CT, just north of Hartford, winds gusting to 41 mph; 1.04 in just the past hour.  No surprise that flash flood warning in effect there. 

3:01 pm. EDT Sunday

While southern New England in the muggy low 70s under heavy Henri rains, tropical heat continues in northern Vermont. At 3 p.m. Burlington at 88 degrees, heat index 93 

2:53 pm EDT Sunday

First tropical shower of the day in northern Vermont seems to have formed northwest of St. Albans, Vermont.  I don't think there will be too many of these today, but with tropical systems you never know.

This one moving very slowly toward the west, opposite of normal showers around Vermont.  It might or might develop into a very local downpour, but no biggie; just interesting, no real threat.  

2:51 pm. EDT Sunday

Nearly stationary rain band that produced up to 5 inches of rain in NYC area and northern New Jersey in association with Henri is still ongoing. Not as intense as last night, but it CANNOT be helping the flood situation in that area.

Rain bands with flash flooding often set up west or northwest of tropical systems. Thank goodness no sign of that so far in Vermont. 

2:30 pm EDT Sunday

As expected, Henri's forward speed slowing dramatically, raising risk of long lasting, flooding rains. Forward speed at 5 a.m this morning over water was 18 mph.  As of 2 p.m. down to half that. 

2:27 pm EDT Sunday.

Photo here  from Twitter shows it's pretty messy in Richmond, Rhode Island 

2:25 p.m: EDT Sunday

Here's a fun little tidbit: One of Tropical Storm Elsa's landfall was at Westerly, Rhode Island at 12:15 p.m on July 9.  Today, Tropical Storm Henri made landfall at Westerly, Rhode Island at 12:15 p.m. What are the chances?

2:20 p.m.

Getting somewhat cloudier in northern Vermont from Henri, which will temper the sun's intensity somewhat. Still wicked humid, and that won't change anytime soon.

1:40 p.m. EDT Sunday

New flash flood warning now around Hartford, CT as the worst of Henri's rains creep northward

1:25 p.m. EDT Sunday

The smoky haze over Vermont is gone and the sky is a 
beautiful deep blue.  That's not fresh Canadian air, though.
This is from the clean, but very humid deep tropics.
It's dangerously hot and humid north of Henri's clouds
in northern Vermont this afternoon.

You might have noticed today the wildfire haze and smoke that has plagued Vermont much of the summer is gone today.  

That's because Tropical Storm Henri has brought air straight from the tropics. The sky over Vermont is basically the same as the sky over, say Barbados.  

Don't let those deep blue skies with those pretty puffy clouds fool you.  That's not the refreshing blue sky normally get in Vermont this time of year right after a refreshing cold front from Canada.

It's still wicked humid and the heat index is dangerous if you're working outdoors today.  

For instance as of 1 p.m. Burlington, Vermont was 87 degrees with a heat index of 93.  NOT pleasant. Stay in air conditioning if you can, and don't overdo it with work our exercise outdoors. It can be dangerous!

1:13 p.m.: NECN reports 100,000 customers without power already 

First update: 12:52 p.m. EDT Sunday:

I'm going to keep a live blog going with occasionally, sometimes very frequent updates of Tropical Storm Henri.  

This will be full of updates, new forecasts, breaking news and other information to keep you abreast of this dangerous storm. 

Since this is a Vermont-based blog, it will focus a bit on the Green Mountain State, but of course there will be lots of information on how things unfold in the rest of the Northeast.

Please comment and ask questions as this live blog progresses. Also, follow me on Twitter at @mattalltradesb 

Tropical Storm Henri, now inland in southern New England, is
losing that tropical "look" in this satellite view early 
Sunday afternoon. Watch out though, inland flooding
from this thing is a big threat through Monday. 

Keep refreshing the URL on this blog to see the latest updates. 

Henri made landfall at around 12:15 p.m. today near Westerly, Rhode Island with top winds of 60 mph. Technically, landfall was really on Block Island, Rhode Island about an hour earlier, since Henri passed right over that chunk of rock south of the New England coastline. 

The winds were a bit weaker at landfall than many forecasts, so that might slightly limit the destruction to trees and power lines in Connecticut and Rhode Island. But still will be a lot of problems in that department. 

I"ve always known the real danger from Henri in the Northeast is the torrential rain and associated inland flooding that is and will occur.  We've only just begun with the flooding. 

Flash flood warnings are already flying in southern Connecticut and those warnings will migrate north and west as the afternoon goes on. 

Here in Vermont, the first heavy rain bands from Henri are crossing east to west across far southern Vermont.  These are not yet enough to set off any real flooding, that will come later.

Fingers crossed, the heaviest rain and the worst flooding might, just MIGHT stay just to the south and west of Vermont.  But everyone in central and southern Vermont should stay alert for flood warnings and flooding anytime between now and Monday evening. 

If you live in a flood prone area, have a plan to get out of Dodge very, very quickly. These will be flash floods, not something that comes on gradually.  The further south you go in Vermont, the greater the flood threat. 

For this afternoon, dry air aloft is helping to hold any showers at bay in central and northern Vermont. It's wicked humid near the surface, as you know, so there could be some brief pop up tropical showers here and there, but coverage will be scattered at best

at's a bit weaker of a landfall than anticipated 

Henri Already Causing Damage, Getting Worse Through The Day

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Henri closing in
on New England Sunday morning 

Now that Tropical Storm Henri is having direct impacts, there's almost too much to write about this morning.  

I'll give you an early update now with subsequent  updates throughout the event.

Henri was a hurricane earlier this morning with top winds of 75 mph.  It was "downgraded" to a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph, but don't focus on the "downgrade," because it isn't really,  Doesn't matter if it's a low end hurricane or high end tropical storm, the effects on people are the same.

At 5 a.m. the center of Henri was about 80 miles southeast of Montauk, Long Island or about 120 miles south of Providence, Rhode Island.  It was moving a little west of due north with a forward speed of 18 mph. That's a little slow for a New England tropical system and it will slow down a lot more once it makes land fall

More on that in a bit because that will have implications for some serious flooding. 

Outer rain bands have already been sweeping through southern New England as of dawn. Conditions will deteriorate there through the morning ahead of an expected landfall late this morning or early this afternoon near the eastern tip of Long Island and somewhere near the Connecticut/Rhode Island border.

 The drama of storm surges and high winds on Long Island and in southern New England will be relatively brief but destructive. Storm surges of a around three feet on Long Island and Connecticut shores will be destructive, especially on low lying barrier islands like Fire Island.

The winds will take down countless trees, and power outages will certain affect over 1 million homes and businesses.  The power in some areas will stay off all week, and an oppressive heat wave is forecast for the next several days in this area.

The winds won't be strong enough to damage that many houses on its own, but countless homes in, say, Connecticut will sustain serious damage from falling trees.

The main story with Henri will be potentially catastrophic inland flooding. The winds of Henri will die back fairly quickly later today and tonight as the storm slowly works its way into the heart of New England. 

Tropical systems lose their wind quickly once inland, but the torrential rains live on long after the gales have lost their punch. 

The rain issues area already happening and will get worse.

Henri's outer circulation latched on to moisture pooling to its west to give New York City an incredible downpour overnight. They had 4.45 inches in five hours,  and about two inches of it came within an hour.

As you might imagine, there was a LOT of flash flooding in the New York City metro area last night,  with plenty of streets closed and cars inundated.  As of early this morning that western fringe stuff from Henri was causing a lot of flash flooding in New Jersey.

That downpours in New York last night is a hint of the kind of flood danger Henri will cause in southwestern New England and southern New York today and tomorrow. Rainfall of three to six inches, with local amounts to 10 inches, are still expected in the Catskills and Hudson Valley of New York, Connecticut, western and central Massachusetts, and yes, far southern Vermont.

It has been wet down in this region, so I would expect some terrible flooding.  A few areas in the Catskills and southwestern New England could have Irene-like flooding. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

The further south you go in Vermont, the more dangerous Henri will be.

As I mentioned in past posts, the expected slow forward pace of Henri is very, very weird, and very, very dangerous.  That 18 mph forward speed from this morning will slow to less than 10 mph once inland. 

Tropical Storm Henri had already helped bring tropical
air north to Vermont by Saturday, helping create
this Florida-like sky over Colchester.

The National Hurricane Center forecast map early this morning had the center of Henri near Brattleboro at 2 a.m. Monday, and had it only advance to about White River Junction by 2 p.m. Monday. An elite long distance runner could easily outpace Henri's expected trek.

Of course, you don't focus on just the exact track, but the effects of the storm in a wide area. Areas to the west of a tropical system in this part of the world get the heaviest rains, so that's what's worrying. 

Vermont Emergency Management says they've opened up their Emergency Operations Center to monitor the storm and respond to any issues. My guess is they WILL respond to some issues in southern Vermont sometime between now and Monday night.  

Vermont's southernmost two counties are in the most flood danger from this.

The remains of Henri is still expected to take a sharp turn east at White River Junction or thereabouts and slowly stagger off to the Gulf of Maine. But that won't happen until later Monday and early Tuesday.

That means there's also a flood risk from Rutland and Windsor counties north almost to Route 2. While it doesn't look like the flooding there will be as bad as points south, you still need to take things seriously.  Locally torrential downpours could cause some dangerous flash floods.

Sometimes, bands of particularly heavy rain set up to the north and west of a dying tropical system. This could happen in south-central or central Vermont tomorrow. It's hard to tell in advance if and where these will set up, but pay attention to any flood warnings that might come out. 

North of Route 2, we'll get some rain out of this, but many places won't get much, as it stands now. There might be some embedded areas of heavy rain here and there in the north, but at this point the threat of flooding looks fairly low. 

Stay tuned for updates, though! 

However, it will be close enough to g