Idalia Smashes Florida, Not As Bad As Feared, But Gulf Coast Hurricane Trends Worrying

In a screen grab from a video by storm chaser 
Reed Timmer, Hurricane Idalia's storm surge
smashes into condos in Cedar Key, Florida Wednesday.

Now-Tropical Storm Idalia was heading off the coast of North Carolina this morning, and is expected to take a lonely meander in the Atlantic off the Southeast Coast over the next few days. 

As rain diminishes in North Carolina today, the threat of any further trouble in the United States from Idalia is over.

Damage was extensive in Florida from Idalia, as expected. But it could have been worse, mostly because it hit a rather sparsely populated part of the state. 

Severe storm surges wrecked a number of homes and businesses on Cedar Key and in Steinhatchee, along the northwest coast of Florida. Just inland, the town of Perry, population 7,000, was raked by winds gusting to at least 90 mph, shredding roofs, punching through windows, smashing metal buildings, dismantling signs and toppling numerous trees. 

Still, things aren't as bad as they could have been. So far, two deaths have been reported. That's bad, but you could have had dozens of fatalities had things worked out differently.  Tampa only got a glancing blow. The feared storm surge in Tampa Bay did materialize, but it only caused relatively minor flooding. Though a few businesses right along the shore were badly damaged there. 

All in all, it could have been worse. 

There were some really interesting things, though regarding Idalia and some worrying trends involving hurricanes, especially those that have been striking the United States Gulf Coast

LAST MINUTE STRENGTHENING

 Idalia continued an increasing - and dangerous - trend toward hurricanes rapidly intensifying just before landfall.

Storms like that which quickly ramp up before hitting land can more easily catch people by surprise, sometimes with deadly results.

As Jeff Masters reports, since 1950, only ten hurricanes that made landfall in the United States had their winds strengthen by at least 40 mph within the 24 hours before landfall. Five of those hurricanes (Harvey, Michael, Laura, Idalia and Ida) have occurred just within the past six years. 

DID CLIMATE CHANGE CONTRIBUTE?

There have always been powerful hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. The water there usually gets quite warm in the late summer. 

Most of the time, you need water temperatures of at least 82 degrees to allow hurricanes to form and strengthen. Water temperatures in the Gulf routinely get hotter than that this time of year.  

The hotter the water, though, the more a hurricane will strengthen, as long as other meteorlogical factors, like upper level winds cooperate. 

Idalia was of course not the strongest hurricane ever to form in the Gulf of Mexico. But it was strong, and it developed incredibly rapidly, as you just read above. 

Jeff Masters again:

"As far back as 1987, MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel theorized that the wind speeds in hurricanes can be expected to increase about 5 percent for every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit increase in tropical ocean temperature, assuming that the average wind speed near the surface of the tropical oceans does not change. Computer modeling has found a slightly smaller magnitude (4 percent) for the increase."

Masters acknowledges that a four to five percent increase in hurricane winds doesn't sound like a big deal. But he says damage increases exponentially with an increase in hurricane winds. 

A hurricane with 100 mph winds will do ten times the damage of a minimal hurricane with 75 mph winds, if you take into account destruction from wind, storm surges, inland flooding and tornadoes.  "Bottom line: a 4-5% increase in winds yields about a 40-50% increase in the destructive potential of a hurricane," Masters writes. 

Gulf of Mexico waters were near 90 degrees along the path of Idalia.  It probably would not have strengthened as fast as it did if water temperatures were closer to normal, say 84 or 85 degrees. Climate change is heating the Gulf of Mexico, along with ocean water all over the world.

Climate change was likely not the main driver of Idalia's strength, but it probably contributed some to  it. 

BEWARE THE "I"S OF HURRICANES

For some reason, hurricanes that start with the letter "I" have historically been especially nasty.

Usually, the same hurricane names are recycled every six years. If you get a nothing burger tropical storm named, say, Arlene, you'll see a storm with the same name pop up six years later.

However the National Hurricane Center retires names of hurricanes if they are particularly memorable and destructive. 

Hurricane expert Brian McNoldy recently tweeted (Or X'd?) that of the 13 "I" storms that have been retired in the past 70 years, seven of those names have been retired in just the past 14 years. (Ike, Igor, Irene, Ingrid, Irma, Ida, Ian).

Storms that begin with the letter "I" tend to occur during the middle of the hurricane season, when storms tend to be strongest. So you'd think that storms that begin with "H" and "J" are also frequently retired.

Not so, says McNoldy. Only six "H" storm names have been retired over the past 70 years, and only five "J" storms have been retired during that period. 

GULF COAST BATTERED IN PAST 7 YEARS

The United States along the coastline in the Gulf of Mexico has been especially battered over the past seven years. As atmospheric scientist Tomer Burg notes, ten hurricanes, all with top winds of at least 100 mph, have hit somewhere between Texas and western Florida in the past seven years. Seven of those storms had top winds of at least 125 mph. 

Burg notes that these Gulf Coast hurricane strikes seem to come in phases in recent years. In the seven years between 2009 and 2016, no hurricanes with top winds of 100 mph or higher struck the Gulf Coast. 

However, between 2004 and 2008, eighty hurricanes with top winds of 100 mph or more struck our Gulf Coast.

I don't know what the explanation is for this on and off cycle.   

OTHER HURRICANES

It's near the peak of hurricane season, so the Atlantic Ocean continues to bubble with tropical activity. Big Hurricane Franklin is still out there, lumbering east-northeastward heading away from Bermuda.   It will gradually weaken over the next several days without affecting land. 

Weak little Tropical Storm Jose formed in the central Atlantic Ocean overnight. It has top winds of only 40 mph, and soon will be sucked into the circulation of Hurricane Franklin. Tropical Storm Jose is destined to have a short and lame life. It won't hurt anybody. 

Another disturbance has come off the west coast of Africa.  It's just a collection of thunderstorms now, but there's a high chance it could become a tropical storm within the next couple of days. Nobody is really sure of its future path, but early indications are it might head northwest, instead of west, which would limit how many places it could eventually hit. 

 

Summer To Arrive In Vermont Just In Time For Autumn

Now that summer is ending, summer weather looks
like it will finally arrive for September. Odds
strongly favor warmer than normal weather here
in the opening week of the new month, and 
probably beyond. 

 True to form, more rain fell on Vermont today, and in Addison County, it was heavy enough this morning to prompt a flood warning in part of the county. 

So far, I haven't seen any confirmed reports of flooding in that county, and the rain there has tapered off for now. 

But that's the story of the entire summer of 2023, as we well know. We've had repeated storms, floods and seemingly endless rain.  It hasn't been much of a summer, really. 

Now, we're coming up on the Labor Day weekend, which is the unofficial close of summer. And wouldn't you know, it's beginning to look like that will mark the start of an extended period of very warm to hot and dry summer weather. 

Go figure. 

Most of the extended forecasts put a big ridge of warm high pressure over the eastern United States. Hot, humid, but mostly rain-free weather looks like it wants to pour into the Northeast, including Vermont next week.

The heavier rains that hit central and southern Vermont this morning were departing by late morning, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of one last weather front. A few storms could be strong-ish, but it doesn't look like we'll have anything severe. And the storms will be hit and miss. Some of us will get wet again, some of us won't.

Thursday will be dry, sunny and on the cool side for this time of year, but nothing that remarkable. (Earlier forecasts had called for a true taste of autumn with downright chilly temperatures, but computer models have really backed off on that idea).

So expect highs in the 60s too around 70 Thursday, and a cool Friday morning. 

Then, summer arrives! Yay! In September. 

It's unclear just how hot it will get or how long it will last. It's possible the warmer valleys in Vermont could touch 90 degrees next week, but that's iffy. It's harder to reach 90 in September than it is in July and August, as normally we should be cooling down into autumn. 

It's possible that weak cold fronts could occasionally temper the heat beyond midweek, but that's unknown, too. Generally, forecasts call for above normal temperatures well into second week of September.

Also, for a change, odds somewhat favor below normal rainfall through the first week of September and probably a little beyond that. 

Hurricane Idalia Smashes Ashore In Florida; Widespread Damage Ongoing

Screen grab from video taken from the Weather Channel's
Jim Cantore showing a storm surge blasting into 
Cedar Key, Florida early this morning. 

 Hurricane Idalia, as expected, slammed into the northwestern Florida coastline at around 8 a.m. this morning with top winds of around 120 mph. 

The eye hit Florida's "Big Bend" area a little south of the town of Perry and just a little southeast of Apalachee Bay. The hit zone was about 50 miles south of Tallahassee. As of 8:15 p.m. the airport in Perry was reporting north winds at 62 mph gusting to 85 mph. 

Live streams from the storm zone showed a devastating storm surge, which was long predicted to be the worst part of hurricane Idalia.  Reed Timmer's live stream on YouTube showed at least five feet of ocean water in Cedar Keys, Florida, with lots of debris floating in the water 

Other images showed trees being tossed by winds gusting to 100 mph.

Well south of the storm center, storm surges reached as high as seven feet in Tampa Bay, so there's probably damage to report there as well.  

Since we're still in the middle of the storm, we obviously have no idea of whether there have been any casualties, or how extensive the damage is.

Hurricane Idalia will continue plowing through northern Florida and southern Georgia today. Over land, it will be weakening, but will still pack quite a punch. Hurricane force winds are spreading across southern Georgia as lumbers on. 

Radar image of Hurricane Idalia moving inland
into northwest Florida this morning. 

Idalia, as expected, was strengthening almost all the way to the coast. Just offshore, it peaked at about 130 mph.

Then, it started going through what is known as an eyewall replacement cycle. The area immediately around the central eye of a hurricane features the strongest, most destructive winds.  That circle of destructive winds is known as the eyewall. 

Very often, a strong hurricane will have a tiny, pinhole eye, but then a new eyewall forms a little further out from the center and the original eyewall disappears.  

This will cause the top winds of a hurricane to decrease a little, but also expands the area experiencing hurricane force winds.   That's why Idalia "weakened" to 120 mph at landfall. 

As a practical matter, this makes no difference in the destructive power of Idalia. It still created just as immense a storm surge as it would have had it not gone through that last minute cycle before landfall. And, as we've seen in the live streams, there's lots of damage from those hurricane force winds. 

Idalia will head eastward off the southeastern United States coast tomorrow. After that, its future is unknown, but it won't be any kind of threat to us up here in Vermont. 

Florida Bracing For Hurricane Idalia, Evacuations Ongoing Ahead Of Destructive Storm Surge

Satellite photo of Hurricane Idalia this morning shows
it beginning to take on "that look" of a potentially
very powerful storm.

Thousands of people are fleeing western and northern Florida today, and for good reason. 

What was Tropical Storm Idalia has strengthened into a hurricane, with top winds of 80 mph as of 7 a.m. this morning. Now, the meteorological ingredients have come together that could further strengthen this thing into a monster. 

Thunderstorms have consolidated around the center of Idalia. There's a lot of lightning in those storms. Upper level winds above the hurricane have relaxed. The water beneath the storm is at near record warmth. The combination sets the stage for rapid intensification today from a middling hurricane to a powerful, dangerous one. 

Forecasters expect Idalia to become a major Category 3 storm with top winds of 120 mph by the time it hits land tomorrow. It could even get stronger than that.   That's unquestionably bad, of course, but the worst part of any big hurricane is the storm surge. 

The low air pressure of a hurricane lifts the water, and the intense winds shove the water onshore like a massive bulldozer, taking down anything in its path. Huge waves with the surge just make everything that much worse. 

The National Hurricane Center warnings concerning the storm surge are worrying to say the least: They warn of "widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period."

I found it a bit disconcerting that already there was minor coastal flooding in communities like St. Petersburg, Florida on Monday, well in advance of the storm. The storm center was a full 175 miles west of Key West this morning and there was quite a bit of coastal flooding going on there. 

Officials are urging people to high tail it out of danger zones now if not sooner, before escape routes are cut off by rising water. 

All this while the sun is still shining on the Hurricane Idalia danger zone.  But the sun won't shine for long. Outer rain bands and squalls from Idalia should start moving over the area by this afternoon and evening. 

The area under a storm surge warning is huge, running from south of Sarasota in southwestern Florida, all the way northward along the rest of the west coast of Florida and on into the state's panhandle to a little east of Panama City. Evacuation orders are in effect for 21 Florida counties. 

The center of the hurricane, and its worst destruction is still expected to hit land where the coast of Florida starts curving westward into the panhandle. But there's still questions about whether it will shift east or west, so Idalia could strike closer to Tampa or closer to Panama City. 

It's always important to note that even if Hurricane Idalia tracks exactly where forecasts now think it will go. The storm surge will hit a broad area of coastal Florida. As I mentioned yesterday, the geography of the coast line and the path of Idalia will ensure that a storm surge is shoved into Tampa Bay, and the water will have nowhere to go with all that pressure from the southerly gales as Idalia blows past.

In the hardest hit zones, the storm surge could go up to 12 feet. Tampa Bay is expecting a four to seven foot storm surge. 

Torrential rains will also add to the mix, causing inland flooding. Water trying to drain from the land into Tampa Bay will have nowhere to go because of the storm surge blocking the way. 

President Biden has already approved an emergency declaration for Florida. Everyone is battening down. Tampa International Airport closed at midnight last night, and won't reopen until after the storm and damage is assessed. 

The hurricane warning affects 13 million people. Forty-six of Florida's 67 counties are in a state of emergency.  Schools are unsurprisingly closed throughout the western  half of Florida.  You can tell people there are expecting a biggie.   

Meanwhile, Hurricane Franklin swirls off the southeast
U.S coast, and west of Bermuda.

After striking Florida, Idalia will cruise through Georgia and South Carolina as a tropical storm, then head out to sea off the southeastern North Carolina coast by Thursday. From there, its future is uncertain.

HURRICANE FRANKLIN

We have to mention Hurricane Franklin, which as of this morning was very roughly half way between Bermuda and the southeastern coast of the United States.

 It's a monster that I think peaked yesterday, thankfully without hitting land.  Its top winds reached to nearly 150 mph and in satellite imagery took on the look of a classic powerful hurricane.

Its center will miss land and Franklin will eventually die in the cold waters of the North Atlantic. But being such  powerful storm, it's causing and will cause dangerous rip currents from Miami, Florida all the way north along the U.S. and Canadian east coasts to Newfoundland. 

Morning Fog Season Is Here; Probably Will Be Even Foggier This Year

Satellite photo from early this morning shows webs
of fog in the river valleys of Vermont, and in much
of the Champlain Valley 

 There was lots of fog in the valleys of Vermont this morning. The National Weather Service in South Burlington even issued a special weather statement noting the fog was more widespread than usual today.  

Get used to it. 

As summer wanes and we get toward autumn morning fog will be a frequent visitor to Vermont, especially in the river valleys.

Any clear, calm night for the next several weeks will probably give us misty mornings.

The ground and water bodies have been warming up all summer. Now, on calm, clear nights, the air temperature will dip below that of the water. Moisture rising from the water will hit that cool air and condense into fog.

This happens every year, of course. Transpiration from trees contributes to it as well. So does wet ground. 

And boy, do we have wet ground!  After all those floods and storms and rainy periods we've had for months, the soil is still soggy as heck.  That will probably make us even more foggy during the early autumn, unless we see weeks of dry weather starting now. 

Spoiler: Some showers are in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Fog will mostly be a creature of early mornings in the coming weeks. As the sun rises, it heats the air, causing it to mix around and that disperses the fog. Even the thickest fog banks near rivers usually disappears by 10 a.m. or 11 a.m. at the latest.

On some occasions, a temperature inversion will seal the moisture near the surface more efficiently. On those days, the fog might lift into a low, dreary overcast that might not break up until afternoon. That won't happen often, but it probably will occasionally. 

This morning's fog was more widespread than usual because the same temperature inversion that kept parts of Vermont overcast into Sunday afternoon continued to exist.  Since the air was already moist, it didn't take long for fog to take hold, and spread. 

The fog was burning off at midmorning and today will be a pleasant Monday.  

Hurricane Idalia Forecast For Florida Turns Grim

Satellite phot from Sunday shows Tropical Storm Idalia
organizing in the southern Gulf of Mexico and 
Hurricane Franklin northeast of the Bahamas.

 Tropical Storm Idalia continues to get its act together in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and now Florida is under a terrible threat from this strengthening storm. 

As of early this morning, Idalia had top winds of 65 mph. It was starting to take its expected path north and will probably brush the western tip of Cuba tonight. 

At first, Idalia should only slowly strengthen into a hurricane as upper level winds are still somewhat interfering with how it's organizing itself.

But starting tomorrow, it's turning into a potential worst-case scenario for several reasons. For one, the water in the Gulf of Mexico in the path of the storm is super warm and toasty to quite a depth.  If the warm water layer was just near the surface, the storm might churn up cooler water from below to blunt its development. 

But all that warm water means Idalia will have plenty of fuel to strengthen quite a lot, as long as upper level winds aren't too strong. 

Unfortunately, those upper level winds look like they'll give Idalia a break, and possibly allow it to get a lot stronger a lot faster. Right now, expected top winds are forecast to go to 115 mph at landfall, which is expected on Wednesday. Forecasts like this are uncertain, as the warm water could maybe make the storm even stronger than that. 

Yet another worry in a long list of problems with this storm is it will likely be strengthening right up until it hits land. So, wherever Idalia lands, people might be taken by surprise by the intensity of the winds and the storm surge. After all, they might hear the storm has winds of say, 110 mph offshore, and that's what they'll expect. Then something even worse hits. 

Speaking of landfall, here's another issue: We don't know exactly where it's going to hit. It will be moving pretty much parallel to the Florida west coast. Any deviation from Idalia's predicted path could bring it onshore anywhere from Sarasota north to Panama City.   

Right now, the current project is for Idalia to hit land in Florida's big bend, where the Florida coastline curves toward the panhandle.  

On one hand, that would be kind of good since that area is lightly populated.  But not that good. That's because Idalia's storm surge will be widespread, and so will its torrential rains. A wide area of northern Florida is under the gun because of that. 

And, as I already noted, that project path could well be wrong. Especially if it goes further to the east and slams in to the Tampa Bay region.

Even if Idalia behaves like forecasters think it might and it goes by to the west of Tampa, that metro area would still be in trouble. 

The way Tampa Bay is oriented, combined with the direction of the wind and water flow with Idalia, a storm surge would keep shoving water up into Tampa Bay, causing widespread flooding.  Many thousands of people live in houses only a few feet above normal sea level.

I'm seeing some comparisons to Category 5 Hurricane Michael in 2018, which also strengthened rapidly until it slammed ashore around Mexico Beach, Florida. I don't think, or at least hope, Idalia won't be as intense as Michael, but you never know. 

Oh, and here's another doozy that might make things worse, at least for some people.  Evacuations are inevitable, and probably have already started. It turns out, more than two dozen Florida Citgo gas stations received shipment of gasoline that were contaminated by diesel fuel.

If a motorist unwittingly filled their tank with that bad gas, they'll end up stranded one the side of the road. Just as Idalia is bearing down.  

Of course, there will be updates as Idalia gets closer to an eventual landfall Wednesday. Florida is in for another very rough ride. 

Vermont Weather Stays Weird, But At Least We're Staying Safe

Big, billowy clouds boil up east of Burlington,
Vermont Saturday. 

 Ever have someone in your life who can just never make up their mind?

Oh, I want to this, no, that, let's go back to Plan A.  What about Plan C?  It can get frustrating.

Which was the personality of the weather in Vermont Saturday. 

Moisture and instability in the air, along with some weak disturbances in the atmosphere, created a fairly unique set up over us, with lots of small downpours, narrow, towering clouds and breaks of sunshine.

So one minute it's sunny and warm, the next minute there's a drizzle, then a downpour, then the sun is back out, only to repeat this cycle over and over again. 

A classic if you don't like the weather in Vermont, wait a minute and it'll change type of day. 

At least the sky was pretty, with those billowing clouds, rainbows, shafts of sunlight, interesting shadows. And bonus: After the summer we've had, none of these frequent storms were strong enough to cause damage or create flooding. 

As is normally the case with these types of showers and garden variety storms, they died down after sunset. For most of us. But for some reason, downpours continued until almost 11 p.m. in Franklin County, Vermont. 

I don't see reports yet from places that were particularly bullseye by the late storms, but I do see Fletcher and Swanton, both on the edges of the heavier downpours reported a half foot three quarter of an inch of rain Saturday.

Rainbow over St. Albans, Vermont Saturday. 

Today, Sunday, was supposed to be nice, but it's not starting out that way.  We're getting toward autumn, and it's going to get harder and harder for temperature inversions to break as the sun angle gradually diminishes. 

A temperature inversion is a layer of warmer air above cooler air. This often traps moisture, and for us, means a low, gray overcast. The sun will eventually destabilize the air, making it mix up and down and break up the inversion, and thus the clouds. 

A weaker sun means it takes longer. That's part of what's been happening today.  Mid-morning satellite pictures show Vermont is cloudy, but surrounded by sunshine in Quebec and much of the rest of the Northeast.

So, the clouds should break, and we should end up with a partly sunny, nice enough afternoon. I hope. 

Tomorrow looks pretty nice, too.

The next storm system comes in Tuesday night and Wednesday, with another batch of showers. Again, those won't cause any real problems. 

Fairly strong high pressure expected to build in by Thursday over us should do a great job of keeping future Hurricane Idalia well to our south, so that won't be a bother. 

Beyond that, I'm seeing hints of drier and warmer air. We'll see if that pans out. 

Hurricane Worries In Florida, Meanwhile Franklin Shows Its Muscle

Satellite photo from this morning showing what
will become tropical storm and likely eventually
Hurricane Idalia organizing off the coast
of Cancun Mexico. 

Florida is beginning to brace for a potential new hurricane disaster. Meanwhile, another hurricane is flirting with Bermuda, but will otherwise sort of behave itself. Let's get into it:  

WANNABE IDALIA

It's not set in stone yet, but a storm that's now now far from Cancun, Mexico definitely has Florida nervous. 

That storm is soon to become Tropical Storm Idalia, that is if it isn't already a tropical storm by the time you read this.

Wannabe Idalia was just sort of meandering aimlessly early this morning, but is forecast to soon start heading north is expected to head north and probably hit western Florida or the state's panhandle sometimes around Wednesday.  

How strong Wannabe Idalia will be by the time it gets to Florida is anybody's guess.  Forecasts have generally been trending stronger over the past couple of days with this thing. 

One thing going for this storm is the Gulf of Mexico waters are at near record warmth, and that warmth extends deep into the water.  That's incredibly high octane fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes.  It provides the potential for the storm to strengthen explosively, which would make it a powerful, catastrophic hurricane by the time it reaches Florida.

But that won't necessarily happen. To become a monster category 5 hurricane like Michael in 2018 that leveled parts of the Florida Panhandle, you need relatively light winds aloft to avoid disrupting the storm's circulation. 

This, however is an El Nino year. It tends to make higher level winds stronger, which could interfere with Wannabe Idalia's strength. It all depends on how strong those upper winds are.  It's a trade off. The hot Gulf waters want to blow up the storm into a monster, the upper level winds want the storm to chill out. 

Forecasters aren't so sure which factor will be the more dominant of the two. 

In the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, they note predictions for upper level winds over Wannabe Idalia are weaker than in previous forecasts. That would favor more strengthening. But again, that's highly uncertain.

So, we know Florida is at risk, but we don't know precisely where in Florida that hit will strike, and we don't yet know how hard the strike will be. 

If you live in Florida, especially the panhandle and the west coast from Fort Myers north, I'd start making early hurricane preparations just in case. Although it will be hot and busy, today's a great day to make a Costco and Home Depot run for supplies, protections for your home, that sort of thing. 

Even if Wannabe Idalia ends up missing you, or becomes a nothing burger, at least you have all that stuff for the inevitable next hurricane, whenever that will be.

It doesn't look like Wannabe Idalia will affect us here in Vermont. I'll get into that in a separate post this morning on Vermont weather, which is currently weird but safe.

HURRICANE FRANKLIN

Meanwhile this morning, Hurricane Franklin was east of the Bahamas, with top winds of 90 mph. It's really getting its act together, and is now expected to rapidly strengthen as it heads north to a point west of Bermuda by Wednesday. Top winds near its center by then could be an impressive 130 mph by then. 

Franklin will probably cause some rough weather in Bermuda as it passes by, but so far, it looks like that island will miss out on the full effects of the storm. 

Most forecasts had a dip in the jet stream moving off the coast in the Northeast U.S. shoving Franklin away from the United States and then zip out into the North Atlantic where it would die. The only effects it would have on, say, New England would be rough surf and dangerous rip current. 

Some predictions now have that weather disturbance missing Franklin, but the U.S. will still not be in trouble. If that happens, Franklin will probably meander eastward in the middle of the Atlantic, and linger longer than first thought. But it would just be trouble for ships and all the fishies out there. 

On Our Anniversary, Thanking A Patient Husband For Enduring Weather Geekdom

My husband Jeff enjoying the weather on our deck
in a photo taken a few years ago. It's our wedding
anniversary today, and I'm celebrating the fact
he's tolerated my weather obsession all these years.

Today is my 11th wedding anniversary (Gawd time flies!) and I'm using the occasion to profusely thank my husband for enduring all these years of weather geekdom.  

By extension, I'm also thanking all the spouses and partners of meteorologists and weather enthusiasts out there for supporting or at least putting up with all that weather talk,

My husband Jeff has tolerated the combination of ADHD and weather obsession for so long now, and he still finds it in himself to stay cheerful. 

We might be talking about, say, whether we need to put our dog Jackson in the kennel when we're away the following weekend, then, SQUIRREL!!!!!

Thunder rumbles in the distance.  My favorite kind of weather! Do I go to the window? Is it a big storm? Do I get in the truck and chase the storm down for photos and video?  Off I go, leaving Jeff wondering about dinner. And probably a lot of other things. 

Or, at night, Jeff's trying to watch "Death In Paradise," or one of those other murder mystery shows he likes. I'm sitting on the couch, scrolling social media because there's an impressive tornado outbreak going on in Texas.

Storm chasers are posting amazing photos and short videos of the twisters. So every five seconds, I push the phone in his face to share how gobsmacked I am by the photo of the tornado sending an entire barn into oblivion. Which means Jeff never does learn who killed the book author on that night's episode of "Death In Paradise."

Jeff respects science, but he is not a scientist. Somehow, however, he survives my detailed explanations of a Quasi-Linear Convective Systems and baroclinic zones without fully allowing me to see how badly his eyes are glazing over.

Jeff is a scenic set designer and a painter. He likes doing things big, so he's produced some marvelous large paintings.

Years ago, we were all sick and tired of this huge ugly painting of an owl that was gradually falling apart on my mother's living room wall.

As a gift, he produced this wonderful large painting of what appeared to be a park in September. A few of the trees in the landscape were starting to turn color, but most were still green. He created a blue sky with beautiful puffy clouds and he made the atmosphere look a bit hazy. Just a stunning piece of art. 

And how did I react to this work?  I gave a weather synopsis of what's going on in the painting. I concluded it was a warm, and somewhat humid September day, and a cold front was approaching that would give us the first taste of real autumn chill in the next couple of days. 

Yeah, I came up with that whole weather forecast. About a painting. Jeff just said, "Yes, dear."

The good news, of course is that my mother loved that painting for years until she passed away in 2022.

I also always congratulate Jeff on the accuracy of his clouds within his paintings. He likes to include expanses of sky in his landscapes.  The clouds in his paintings all look plausible. They could happen in real life. 

Which is great, because it drives me crazy to see some paintings that includes clouds that are meteorologically impossible.  Yeah, Jeff has to tolerate that obsession, too. But maybe there's a bit of a closet weather geek within him, since he knows what clouds look like and sort of how they form. 

Jeff does seem to like the gardens I've created around our house, which of course are weather dependent. He's gotten interested in how the weather helps or hurts the perennial gardens.  So maybe a little of me rubbed off on him, who knows?

So, we have had 11 years of marriage through literally all kinds of weather, and we were together a couple years before we married.

I think the weather gods are smiling on our marriage, too. From day one, actually.  Our wedding day was gorgeous. Obsessed as I am, I looked up the specifics this morning. The high that day, August 26, 2012 was 87, the low was 68 and it was mostly sunny and just a bit hazy, like in Jeff's paintings.  

They say that marriage is a path of enduring sunny bliss interrupted by the occasional storm. With Jeff, all my storm chasing seems to be actual, meteorological storms. He never creates metaphorical ones in our lives, another thing that makes me eternally grateful for Jeff.

Here's one forecast I know will be accurate:  A happy anniversary warning is in effect for Jeff. There's a 100 percent chance that I will always love him as intensely as I ever have if not more.  The love raining down will mix with, laughter, respect, awe and pride toward the man I married.  Accumulations of happy memories with him will be deep. 

The "weather pattern" that is the my joy of being married to Jeff will never change. Happy Anniversary, Chief! 

 

Are People Less Afraid Of Hurricanes With Female Names Than Those With Male Names? Spoiler: Probably Not

Satellite view of Hurricane Michael roaring ashore in
the Florida Panhandle in 2018.

People have some strange ideas about how hurricanes "should" be named, apparently.   

At least one probably dubious study, conducted more than a decade ago, suggests that people are less scared of hurricanes with female names than ones with male names. 

I think this is misogynistic, but I don't know if the study is that way, people are that way, or I'm that way for even paying attention to the story.

It's relevant now, because we're entering the peak of hurricane season. Lots of tropical storm and hurricane names will be thrown at you. Just in the past week, we've had Emily, Franklin, Gert and Harold in the Atlantic Ocean and Hilary on the West Coast. 

Anyway, according to a 2014 study from frankly pompous sounding Proceedings from the National Academy of Sciences. :

"Do people judge hurricane risk in the context of gender-based expectations? We see more than six decades of death rates from US. hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes. Laboratory experiments indicate that this is because hurricane names lead to gender-based expectations about severity and this, in turn, guides respondents; preparedness to take protective action. This finding indicates an unfortunate and unintended consequence of the gendered naming of hurricanes, with important implications for policymakers, media practitioners and the general public concerning hurricane communication and preparedness."  

I don't know how accurate all that is, but it was done by scientists, so I hope they know what they're doing. But maybe not. Apparently a lot of people never  bought that 2014 study, and there was plenty of pushback on that study from other scientists.  More on that in a bit. 

HURRICANE NAMES, BOYS AND GIRLS

Prior to 1953, the most memorable hurricanes were named after the region they hit, or the effects they had. Think Great New England Hurricane of 1938, the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, which claimed something like 6,000 lives, and the Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928, which claimed 3,000 lives.

The whole point of naming hurricanes with names of people was to avoid confusion, especially when a few tropical storms or hurricanes were buzzing around at the same time.

According to NOAA:

"Over time, it was learned that the use of short, easily remembered names in written as well as spoken communications is quicker and reduces confusion when two or more tropical storms occur at the same time. In the past, confusion and false rumors resulted when storm advisories broadcast from radio stations were mistaken for warnings concerning an entirely different storm located hundreds of miles away."

In 1978, they started with male names with Pacific Ocean hurricanes and followed up with men's names a year later in the Atlantic Ocean. 

I'm not sure why hurricanes were named after women, but it was maritime tradition that ocean-related stuff was referred to.

I found a great 2021 article from television station WMC in Memphis on this: 

"When the storms took on female names many weathermen began talking about them as if they were actual women. Some uses sexist cliches to describe the behavior of a storm. Many female meteorologists and feminist activists took offense."

I can't blame these women. I have vague memories from my youth in which hurricanes with female names were nicknamed with horribly sexist language. Women's Media Center had this take on naming hurricanes after women in a 2021 article: 

"'Weather Men Insist Storms Are Feminine," blared a New York Tines headline in 1972, Because men often considered women unpredictable, vengeful, or generally stormy, the men at the U.S. Weather Bureau were myopic in their decision to continue using only feminine names. (Aka, they were entirely predicable.)

As late as 1977, the Houston Post ran an editorial that seriously asserted that calling hurricanes by the names of men would not be as effective as the existing evocation of shrews. 'It's doubtful that a National Hurricane Center bulletin that Tropical Storm Al had formed in the Gulf or Hurricane Jake was threatening the Texas Coast would make us run for cover quite as fast."

Which brings us back to that 2014 study, which asserts just the opposite of that 1977 Houston Post editorial. Remember, the study alleged that hurricanes named after women are less deadly than those named after guys. 

Further analysis of the 2014 study poked lots of holes in it.  For example, only a few hurricanes kill lots of people and it only takes one to throw the results out. For instance, if you removed 2012's Hurricane Sandy from that study, the results become the opposite of what that publication concluded.  

Anecdotally, there have been some horrible hurricanes with wimpy names that were super deadly. For instance, Hurricane Fifi killed about 9,000 people in Honduras back in 1974. Hurricane Flora in 1963 killed 8,000 or so people in Haiti and Cuba. 

Then again Mitch sounds like a friendly guy's name, but that storm killed more than 9,000 people in Nicaragua and Honduras. 

The first year they started naming hurricanes with traditionally male names was in 1979. Two of the storms that year, David and Frederic, turned out to be especially deadly and damaging.  

The following is just coincidence, but it seems like when the Powers That Be make a change in how hurricanes are names, New England pays the price. 

The year after they started naming hurricanes with womens' names, Hurricanes Carol, Edna and Hazel caused damage in New England in 1954. Hurricanes Connie and Diane in 1955 caused additional New England destruction. 

In 1979 when men's names were introduced, the remnants of Hurricanes David and Frederic caused damage in Vermont.

The bottom line is, if you're at a vulnerable coastal spot and they tell you to evacuate because an approaching hurricane has a 15-foot storm surge and 150 mph winds, if you had a lick of sense, you'd flee inland.  

It doesn't matter if that hurricane is named "Cute Cuddly Teddy Bear" or "It Will Kill Everyone."  Although sometimes watching human behavior doesn't support it, I think most people no longer care what the hurricane's name is. 

Glimmers Of Climate Hope, Actually, In Tragicomic Republican Debate

The usual climate silliness, but some glimmers of hope
in Wednesday's Republican Presidential debate.

 I guess it's a sign of progress among Republicans that Fox News asked a question about climate change during Wednesday's Republican presidential candidate debate. 

And one candidate was actually booed for saying climate change is in his words, a "hoax."

As HuffPost reports:

".....the moderates listed recent disasters - Hawaii's wildfires, California's rare hurricane, Florida's 101-degree seas and the Southwest's record heat  - and asked the eight Republicans onstage to raise their hands if they believed 'human behavior is causing climate change.'

The raised hands would have been sort of enlightening, at least to me, but true to form Ron DeSantis had to step in to avoid any new knowledge or facts among the public. He wanted wiggle room to avoid any kind of yes or no answer. To make it easier to backtrack in the future, I guess?

Instead, DeSantis quickly interrupted, "We're not schoolchildren. Let's have a debate," before immediately pivoting into a canned response saying Biden's disaster responses have sucked and the media is giving the president a pass on that. 

We can fact check that, but it's not worth the bother. 

The most interesting moment in the debate climate discussion came when entrepreneur and candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said, "It's a hoax....The reality is, the anti-carbon agenda is a wet blanket on our economy. More people are dying of bad climate change policies than they are of actual climate change."

The remarkable thing was, the audience at the debate was rabidly Republican and right-wing. And many audience members booed Ramaswamy for his remarks. I guess the Republican rank and file are ahead of some of their so-called leaders. 

Candidate Nikki Haley piped up right after that, and pretty much shut Ramaswamy down by saying, "Climate change is real. Yes, it is. If you want to change the environment, we need to start telling China and India that they have to lower their emissions."

At least Haley's comments were relatively reasonable. China and India do need to reduce their emissions, but so does the rest of the world. Give Haley credit for stating a basic fact on climate change. 

As the Associated Press reports, some conservative organizations are frustrated by candidates like Ramaswamy dismissing climate change

"'We're getting to a point where Republicans are losing winnable elections because they're alienating people that care about climate change,' Christopher Barnard, the Republican president of the American Conservation Coalition, the largest conservative environmental group in the nation,' said Thursday."

As AP also points out, there's a growing gap between younger voters - including young conservatives - and older Republicans. 

Increasingly, younger Republicans believe climate change is at least an issue that needs addressing. The GOP's older base regard climate science as a hoax conspiracy theory launched by liberals, to I don't know...

Interestingly, though, Ramaswamy is younger, only 38 years old. He's been consistently for fossil fuel development throughout his early campaign. "Human flourishing requires fossil fuel," he likes to say. 

Maybe it was, but.........

The debate was held in Milwaukee Wednesday. Also Wednesday, Milwaukee experienced a record high of 101 degrees, with a heat index as high as 116 degrees.   City officials were forced to close public schools in the city Wednesday and Thursday due to the extreme heat. 

It seems like the effects of climate change followed the Republicans to the debate, whether they liked it or not. 

 

For Once, A Vermont Rainfall Without A Flood (We Believe). Also Tropical Trouble To Avoid Us, Too

 It's going to rain again in Vermont, and some of it might come down pretty heavily for brief periods. 

This projected path of soon to be Hurricane Franklin
looks like it might threaten us here in New England.
But looks are deceiving. All indications are it will
curve well to our east and not bother us at all. 

For once, though, it doesn't look like we will deal with any flooding. As long as I'm not jinxing it here.

This is going to feel a bit like an autumn storm than a summer one.  It'll cloud up pretty quickly later today and it will get breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley. 

Overnight, especially after midnight, it will rain pretty consistently. There might be a rumble of thunder in a few spots, but it won't be anything to get too worked up about. 

Rain will continue into Friday morning, as it looks now, but it will become spottier as the day goes on. 

The fall-like unsettled weather continues all day Friday and through Saturday.  It won't rain all the time, but it will be cloudy and cool, sometimes showery, occasionally drizzly.  You'll really feel like autumn is coming. 

That's not to say we won't have any warm summer weather before autumn really gets here. It's just that we're more prone to cooler temperatures now that we're heading out of August and toward September.

TROPICAL TROUBLE AVOIDING US

Another big of good news with this weather pattern is that the rather weak storminess over us for the next few days should keep any tropical trouble at bay.  Tropical Storm Franklin, having flooded the Dominican Republic this week is heading north into the west-central Atlantic.  

Franklin is expected to strengthen into a hurricane, actually maybe a pretty big one. Of course, we in Vermont would be wary of a northbound hurricane after the wet summer we had. In this case, though, a southward dip in the jet stream that will linger over New England into next week will push Franklin more northeastward. So it will pass safely well east of New England during the middle of next week, and won't affect us at all.

It's possible Franklin could cause trouble in eastern Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, so Environment Canada will be watching that. 

This is so much better than the weather pattern we had in July, which brought us so much flooding. The dip in the jet stream back then was centered over the Great Lakes. That would have steered a storm like Franklin toward us. Not happening this time! 

We're heading into the peak of hurricane season, so expect news of more tropical storms and hurricanes popping up over the next few weeks. There's no telling where they might go. But so far, we in northern New England look blessedly safe from these things. 

Even Highest Altitude European Glaciers Can't Escape This Summer's Heat

A Swiss glacier with blankets over it in a last ditch effort
to slow melting during heat waves. A new heat wave is
breaking records for the highest elevation of above
freezing air over Europe. 

 Swiss meteorologists said that Monday night, you had to reach an elevation of 17,381 feet before you encountered subfreezing air. below 32 degrees, or 0 degrees Celsius. 

That's the highest elevation on record in which above freezing air reached. 

That sounds esoteric, until you consider that Switzerland's vaunted glaciers are all below that elevation, subjecting even the highest glaciers to melting. 

According to the Associated Press:

"MeteoSwiss meteorologist Michael Schwander said it marked only the third time such readings had been tallied above 5,000 meters (16,404 feet) - and that the level was generally around 3,500 (11,483 feet) to 4,000 meters (13,123 feet) in a typical summer. 

'With a zero degree far above 5,000 meters, all glaciers in the Alps are exposed to melt - up to the highest altitudes,' said Daniel Farinotti, a glaciologist at the federal technical university in Zurich, ETHZ in an email. 'Such events are rare and detrimental to the glaciers' health, as they live from snow being accumulated at high altitudes.'

'If such conditions persist in the longer term, glaciers are set to be lost irreversibly,' he said."

Switzerland has about 1,400 glaciers, the most in Europe. They've lost at least half of their total volume since the early 1930s. They've lost 12 percent of their volume in just the past six years, the Associated Press reports.

The high elevations hot spell in Switzerland is part of an intense heat wave now hitting much of Europe. It's being caused by a "heat dome," which is intense area of oddly warm high pressure sitting over parts of the continent. A similar heat dome is afflicting the central United States with record heat. 

In France, people are being told to avoid high elevations in the Alps, because melting ice is opening new crevices in glaciers and causing rock falls. 

Four regions in France are under a rare red alert, which allows local officials to cancel outdoor events and take other measures to protect people from the dangerous heat.

The most tragic news from the European heat wave so far comes from Greece, where 18 charred bodies were found after a wildfire made possible by the record heat swept through. The dead were believed to be migrants. 

For once, we in Vermont are lucking out with the weather.  The heat in the Midwest and Plains is not forecast to spread east. Our temperatures should remain near or a little cooler than normal for at least the next week. 

Climate change, acting in concert with El Nino, has caused numerous record heat waves acros s the world since June. The month of July was the hottest on record for the world as a whole. Many climatologists expect August to be the world's hottest on record, too.

 

Should FEMA And U.S, Presidents Declare Heat Waves Disasters Like They Do Tornadoes And Floods?

Heat waves are the deadliest kind of weather. 
So why don't we declare disasters during huge
heat waves, like the one baking the nation's center now. 

We all know the sad routine. A hurricane, flood, tornado or some other weather calamity strikes a part of the nation. 

The President steps in and declares the storm zone a federal disaster area. This frees up the Federal Emergency Management Agency to provide resources and reimburse affected towns, cities, counties and states for their response to the disaster.  

You never hear of a disaster declaration for a heat wave. No U.S. President has ever made a disaster declaration due to a heat wave. 

 There have been three request in the past for disaster declarations centered on heat waves, but all three were denied. 

At first glance, you'd thing, why would you bother with a heat wave disaster declaration?  

Heat waves rarely cause much physical damage. Sure, you get wildfires and droughts during heat waves, but a disaster is declared for the wildfire and the drought, not the temperature.  Heat waves don't destroy buildings or cause all that much damage to infrastructure, other than some warping of railroad tracks and some heaving on concrete roads. All minor stuff. 

This week, a brutal heat wave is broiling in the middle third of the nation.  A massive area from Louisiana to Minnesota and from Kansas to Indiana is under an excessive heat warning. About 143 million people are under heat alerts, so the chances that this hot weather could kill somebody are pretty high. 

Given there's currently a record breaking heat wave is baking the middle of the nation, consider this, as the Washington Post did: 

Heat waves are the biggest killer in the United States among all weather hazards. Sure, you don't get photogenic video of wreckage or dramatic wind or flooding on the news when there's a bad heat wave, but the human toll is terrible.  

The huge purple and orange area in the middle of this
United States map are the areas under heat 
warnings and alerts today. 

Deaths from various forms of weather vary greatly from year to year. But 2021, which has the most complete data, is fairly representative. 

That year, 104 people died in tornadoes, 106 from extreme cold, 111 from rip currents, 135 from flash floods and 190 from hot weather.  

The year 2021 wasn't a one-off. According to the National Weather Service, the 30-year average annual deaths in the United States from heat was 168. The second highest cause of weather-related deaths in that 30 year average was floods, with an average of 89 deaths over those 30 years between 1993 and 2022.

So if something can be done to prevent heat deaths, especially since heat waves are getting more intense, longer lasting and more deadly with climate change, that would be a good thing. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"A disaster declaration by the president could allow states to be reimbursed for taking action that could save lives - such as opening cooling centers, distributing water and checking in with residents door-to-door.

States could also ask the Federal Emergency Management Agency to launch an emergency response, such as supplying medical teams or rounding up generators."

"Some local and national politicians are hoping to add extreme heat to the list of major disaster-qualifying events to better reflect its threat. In early June, Reps Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Mark Amide (R-Nev.) and Sylvia Garcia (D-Tex.) introduced a bill to add extreme heat to the list."

The legislation, if enacted, would likely help the federal government save lives in heat waves. And in my estimation at least, the legislation would be relatively easy to implement. Mostly because there's no legal prohibition in declaring heat waves major disasters.

Heat waves are rather predictable, more so than events like tornadoes and flash floods. So resources can be brought in ahead of a torrid hot spell to mitigate the effects on people, and likely reduce deaths. After all, preparation for any disaster -  including heat waves - is key to saving lives.    

Wild, Important Climate Change Court Ruling From Montana, Of All Places

A successful climate lawsuit in Montana has legal experts
expecting more litigation to enforce climate change policies.

 Here's a new one. A good one, actually. From ultra-conservative Montana!

Here's the story, from the Washington Post:  

"In the first ruling of its kind nationwide, a Montana state court decided Monday in favor of young people who alleged the state violated their rights to a 'clean and healthful environment' by promoting the use of fossil fuels.

The court determined that a provision in the Montana Environmental Policy Act has harmed the state's environment and the young plaintiffs by preventing Montana from considering the climate impacts of energy projects. The provision is accordingly unconstitutional, the court said. 

The sweeping win, one of the strongest decisions on climate change ever issued by a court, could energize the environmental movement and usher in a wave of cases aimed at advancing action on climate change, experts say."

The case involved 16 Montanan youths, ages five to 22.  It was the first constitutional and first youth-led climate lawsuit to go to trial, says WaPo. 

Youth-led climate lawsuits have really become a thing around the world, but it's been hard to get one of these off the ground in the United States.  Fourteen such  cases have been dismissed in the U.S., WaPo reports. 

Of course, this isn't the end of the Montana case.   It will be appealed to the state Supreme Court.  A spokesperson for the Montana Attorney General said the ruling was "absurd"  and Montanans can't be blamed for causing climate change. 

It's absolutely true that Montana contributed an exceedingly small share to climate change.  This case alone will not "solve" climate change. But Montana does contribute a tiny bit to our altered climate. After all, Montana is a major coal producer and has a lot of coal in the ground yet that can be mined or otherwise recovered for use as a fossil fuel. 

Rikki Held, whose name is on the lawsuit said, "I know that climate change is a global issue, but Montana has to take responsibility for our part in that."

This case does have a better chance than others because of the Montana Constitution. That constitution has the phrase that the state's residents have a right to that "clean and healthful environment."

Youths who brought the suit hammered at that wording in their litigation and testimony. A 15-year old with asthma described being a prisoner in  her own home home when wildfire smoke blanketed the state. (Does that sound familiar? Seems wildfire smoke has been a problem everywhere these days, including here in "clean" Vermont).

The practical effect of the Montana ruling involves a law that blocks the state from considering emissions and climate change when considering whether to approve energy projects. That type of law applies in a number of conservative oil, gas and coal producing states. 

You'd better believe Montana Republicans and the state's petroleum and coal industry will be fighting hard for an appeal to this court ruling.  An industry spokesperson told the Washington Post that it will be hard to approve coal and oil projects and those approved would be subject to time-consuming and costly litigation. 

 "'If this decision stands, it will cause great economic harm to the state of Montana," said Alan Olson, the executive director of the Montana Petroleum Association.'"

Still, it's definitely possible the Montana Supreme Court will uphold the ruling, despite the appeals and opposition from the fossil fuel industry.

According to the Montana Free Press/Flathead Beacon: 

"Speculating about what the Montana Supreme Court might do on appeal, retired Supreme Court Justice  Jim Nelson called the case a 'slam dunk home run' and said he expects the state's highest court will have a difficult time overturning the decision.

'I think this is one of the most powerful decisions I've ever read on the environment in Montana,' said Nelson, who said on the state Supreme Court for nearly two decades."

Even though other states don't have the "clean and healthful environment" language in their constitutions, the Montana case will probably open the door to other climate lawsuits in other states. Lawyers and activists are surely combing state laws and constitutions nationwide to support their causes. 

This opens yet another front in the battle for real climate change action.  Some of it is coming from just the free market that so many Republicans tout. After all, companies that promote and create means of renewable energy are making money hand over fist, and hiring, in large part because the demand is there. 

Some local and state governments, and to an extent federal agencies are beginning to take climate change more seriously, as voters are increasingly demanding it. At least in some corners of the nation and world. 

And for those that are clinging to the fossil fuel past, expect more litigation like this.  

 

As Hilary Floods Subside, Atlantic Ocean Tropical Storms Blossom Quickly

The Atlantic Ocean suddenly blossomed with tropical
storms and potential storms over the weekend. 

 As expected Hurricane Hilary, down to tropical storm status Sunday drenched southern California and surrounding areas with inches of rain. 

Also as expected, there's widespread flooding, mudslides, road washouts, fallen trees and power outages. Unexpectedly, a 5.1 earthquake centered under Ojai, California shook the Los Angeles area. Luckily, the earthquake did not add much to the extensive damage from Hilary. 

Sone of the worst  or most disruptive damage I saw was that both lanes of heavily traveled Interstate 10 near Palm Springs, California was washed out. Traffic was backed up for miles and miles, and it looked like on video a few cars got caught up in in the flooding and mud flows. 

While all eyes were on Hilary, the Atlantic Ocean suddenly blew up with tropical storms. Three tropical storms - Emily, Franklin and Gert quickly formed in the Atlantic tropics and a fourth tropical storm seems set to form as early as today in the Gulf of Mexico.

There's two opposing factors acting in the Atlantic right now. One of them encourages tropical storms, the other discourages them from getting powerful.

The Atlantic Ocean waters overall are at record high temperatures right now.  Tropical storms and hurricanes thrive on warm water - the warmer the better.  That toasty water makes it easier for tropical storms to form, so that's a large reason why we suddenly have so many. 

The opposing factors is El Nino.  That's a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean that's well under way right now. It's expected to continue for several months at least. El Nino tends to drive up the world's temperatures. Combined with climate change, El Nino is largely responsible for record heat around the Globe this summer. 

El Nino also tends to increase upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean. Those strong high level winds tear apart the thunderstorms that fuel tropical storms and hurricanes, so they can't develop well. 

That so far seems to be tempering the ability for all those storms in the Atlantic from becoming dangerous.  The caveat is if any of the storms wander into an area with lighter winds up high, they can finally blossom big time. Were that to happen near a coastline a rapidly developing hurricane could be scary, as you might imagine.

Tropical storms and hurricanes can also surprise forecasters, so you alway have to keep an eye on them.  So far, though, these storms are not much of a threat, except for one that threatens Hispaniola with heavy rain and another that hasn't quite developed yet in the Gulf of Mexico.

Let's briefly look at each storm:

EMILY: This is the most distant of all the storms, hanging around way, way out in the central Atlantic Ocean far from any land. As of this morning Emily's top winds were 40 mph, so it's barely strong enough to be regarded as a tropical storm.

Those strong upper level El Nino winds are ripping thunderstorms away from its center, and Emily is expected to pretty quickly fizzle out as it moves northwestward then northward in the central Atlantic. I wouldn't worry much at all about this one. 

FRANKLIN: So far, Franklin is the worst of the bunch, though of course it's nothing extreme compared to many Atlantic Ocean monster hurricanes of the past. 

Of course, Franklin isn't even a hurricane, just a tropical storm, given that its top winds are around 50 mph. It's in the central Caribbean Sea, and it's about to turn northward and head to Hispaniola in the next few days.  It threatens to bring heavy rains, flooding and mudslides to that island and to Puerto Rico.

El Nino's upper level winds are affecting Franklin, but not as much as it is for the other systems in the Atlantic. Franklin is not forecast to strengthen much on its way to Hispaniola.  It might end up becoming a hurricane after it gets north of that island at a point far south of Bermuda.

There's a slight chance that Franklin could eventually affect parts of Atlantic Canada in a week or two, but the risk so far appears low. But it bears watching. 

GERT: Tropical Storm Gert is the oldest but lamest of the bunch.  It struggled all day Sunday as a tropical depression, not even strong enough to be called a tropical storm. But its winds managed to increase to a still paltry 40 mph last night, so it got named Tropical Storm Gert. 

Gert was rapidly falling apart this morning, so we can just forget about it

WANNABE HAROLD:  If the storminess in the Gulf of Mexico becomes an actual tropical storm, it will likely be named Harold.

Wannabe Harold looks like it will indeed develop into a tropical storm and start heading westward. It has a good shot at being a threat to southern Texas or northeastern Mexico late in the week

HOW THIS AFFECT US

So far, tropical storms are absolutely no threat to us here in Vermont. Which is good news. After all the flooding we had this summer and the wet ground we have now, the last thing we need is a tropical storm. 

None of the storms I mentioned are any kind of threat to us. Moreover, we should hope the weather pattern we have this week persists through hurricane season.

The northwest flow from southern and central Canada that we have now would tend to push any northward moving hurricane offshore.  

We wouldn't want to have the weather pattern we did in July. That one featured an upper level low to our northwest and a dip in the jet stream over or near the Great Lakes. That pattern would have on occasion drawn a northward moving hurricane or tropical storm toward New England. That wouldn't be good. 

So, despite the clouds and light showers this morning enjoy an otherwise dry week for a change. 

Hilary Slamming California/Nevada; Nation's Middle Is Baking And Getting Even Hotter

In a still image from a video, extreme
flooding from Hurricane Hilary in 
Santa Rosalia, Mexico, on the
Baja Peninsula. This could well be
a preview of what will happen in
the southwestern U.S. today. 

 All eyes are on southwestern United States  today as Hurricane Hilary will sweep through today. 

By the time it reaches California, it will be downgraded to a tropical storm, but that doesn't matter in terms impacts. 

Huge areas of the West are under flood watches and warnings. Damaging  high winds are expected in Mexico, up through southern California and western Arizona, through Nevada, and possible up to the Idaho border.

Most of these winds will whistle over mountain passes. 

Rain is the real story, as unprecedented rains will be unleashed. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center said some normally arid areas will see a year's worth of rain in on day. Nevada is in line to have its wettest day anywhere in the state, as up to seven inches of rain are expected in some of the mountains in southern Nevada.

In these mountains, the most rain usually falls in the winter, on the west side of the slopes as storms come in from the Pacific Ocean. 

This will be different. The very arid east slopes will see the moisture come in on strong east and southeast winds. This is quite a rare occurrence. Places that practically get no rain could see it come down at a rate of up to three inches per hours. 

That's a recipe for not only for extreme flash floods, but debris flows and mud slides as well. 

The moisture from Hilary is streaming as far north as Oregon and Idaho, and flash floods are expected there as well. 

Rainfall forecasts in broad terms are about the same as they were in Vermont with the catastrophic flooding we had on July 10-11.

Believe it or not, despite the wet weather we had before that Vermont event, a little of that rainfall was able to soak into our ground, though much of it rain off and caused our flooding. In the deserts and rocks and ridges and mesas of southern California and Nevada, very little if any water will soak in.

It will all rush down hillsides into the settlements, small cities and resorts in California, Nevada and Arizona

The areas around big cities like Los Angeles and San Diego will have their share of problems with flooding, debris flows and wind damage. 

But the most extreme trouble is inland, through places like Death Valley, Coachella, San Bernardino, Palm Springs, California and Yuma, Arizona.  Extreme flooding is likely there. 

Joshua Tree and Death Valley national parks are of course closed. The irony is just three weeks ago, a wildfire was damaging Joshua Tree National Park. 

Heavy rains have already fallen in advance of Hilary, causing flooding in California and around Las Vegas.  Sin City should have some pretty intense floods from this one. 

There will be a lot of news on this later today, I'm sure. 

MIDWEST HEAT

Meanwhile, most of the nation's middle is in a long lasting heat wave that will last days, causing misery from Texas to the Dakotas. 

An intense dome of high pressure is parked over the region, causing the heat. Record high temperatures have already occurred, and more are on the way. 

Temperatures could go as high as 105 degrees as far north as parts of South Dakota. 

The longer a heat wave goes on, especially one with record highs like this one, the more dangerous it gets for human health.  The heat started in earnest Saturday, and will go into this Friday. 

In places like Texas and Louisiana, the heat started weeks ago and will only intensify over the next few days.

WILDFIRES

Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest is suffering from dry winds, wildfires and smoke from those fires in the United States and up in British Columbia. 

An entire town of 5,000 people in eastern Washington State was evacuated, and the fire closed part of Interstate 90, a major route into and out of Spokane. One person has already reportedly died in the fires. 

Strong, dry east winds, partly from the remains of Hilary, are expected to worsen the fires today and tomorrow. 

QUIET FOR US THOUGH

The heat in the Midwest will be held at bay by a northwest air flow out of Canada that will keep the weather quiet here. I think for once, we in Vermont have practically the only boring weather in the nation. 

Skies this week will be partly cloudy on average. There might be a couple light showers Monday and perhaps something a little more substantial but not dangerous at the end of the week.  Since the air flow will be from the northwest it will be cool. 

This being the awful summer of 2023, you know we can't escape everything. Wildfire smoke from Canada's Northwest Territories and British Columbia is over us today, causing some haze and making the air quality not great.

This state of affairs should continue in varying intensities through the week. Haze from smoke will continue to be a frequent visitor to the Green Mountain State.