Weekend Tornado Outbreak Was Much Bigger Than Usual; Death Toll Fortunately Was Not

The big tornado outbreak in the Plains this past weekend is over, but it was such an impressively  large outbreak - and in some respects a strange one - that it needs one more look-see.   

Red and orange shaded areas of this map are where
meteorologists ahead of time said tornadoes were
most likely this past Saturday. Red dots are where
tornadoes actually touched down Other dots are
damaging wind and and hail reports. 

The weekend death toll of 5 is undoubtedly tragic, but is incredibly low considering how powerful may of the tornadoes are and how many of them hit populated areas. 

It was a testament to the great warning system we have for such storms in the United States. In this case, that system worked quite well, despite the number of strong to intense tornadoes associated with this outbreak. 

According to ustornadoes.com, about 4  percent of all tornadoes are EF3, with winds of 136 to 165 mph.  Only 1 percent of tornadoes are EF4. Those have winds of 166 to 200 mph.

  A tiny number 0.1 percent of all tornados are the ultimate monster EF5s, with scouring winds of more than 200 mph. 

No fewer than eight tornadoes in the outbreak were EF3s. One was an EF4, where it trashed a huge Dollar Tree distribution center and tossed cars and trucks into the air along Interstate 35, killing one person.

 It was the first time in about 13 months that an EF4 was reported in the United States, the third longest period of time since 1871 between such violent twisters. 

This tornado count might go up as the storm damage is assessed. 

As of this morning, there were 173 tornado reports from Friday and Saturday. As is the usual case, only a small percentage were EF3s, but this is an impressive outbreak. 

WARNINGS WORK

After many tornado outbreaks, I hear witnesses say "there was no warning," or "it came out of nowhere" despite the fact there were warnings.  Those warnings didn't get through for whatever reason. Disaster experts are alway trying to figure out the best way to convey warnings so people actually receive them, and act on them.

Whatever everybody did over the weekend worked.

"I definitely think the systems out here did a great job of plenty of forewarning. The sirens went off multiple times before the tornadoes touched ground. Our news station did a great job of covering where the weather was and where the weather was going. Our phone alert systems were all going off," Bryanna Kneeland told Fox Weather, describing her experiences in hard-hit Elkhorn, Nebraska.  

It sounds like emergency managers considered the time of day in deciding how to take action, too.  

Kneeland went on: "....it hit around 3:45 in the afternoon when people would normally be coming home from work and children would normally be coming home from school. And the schools were all in lockdown. They did not let the students leave the building. A lot of workplaces were in lockdown. They would not let people leave."

It's much safer to be in a substantial building than in cars, trucks or buses on the streets during a tornado, so these lockdowns were smart. 

Kneeland was at work and her employer ordered her to stay put during the tornado emergency. Her husband was at home and their house was destroyed in the tornado. But he had received the warnings and was in the basement when the tornado hit. He was unharmed. 

 Elkhorn residents had 34 minutes warning that the tornado was headed their way, which is a fantastic lead time for tornado weather. 

The National Weather Service also put a bug in the ears of Oklahoma residents six days before the outbreak that tornadoes were likely. That got people in the right frame of mind to think about what they would do if they received a tornado warning. This long range forecast probably inspired people to have a plan. 

Forecasts in the day or two before the tornadoes began were super accurate. The tornadoes hit almost exclusively where meteorologists had said they would occur in the two or three days leading up to the tornadoes. 

Tornado deaths are more common at night, when people are not paying as much attention to warnings and you can't readily see twisters coming.  Four of the five tornado deaths were in Oklahoma, where the strongest tornadoes hit after dark. 

This, by the way, isn't climate change at work.  There have always been tornado outbreaks like this.  Climate change has tended to encourage tornadoes to form further east in the United States than they use to.

However, this outbreak focused mostly on the "traditional" tornado alley in the southern and central Plains. 

IT'S NOT OVER

Tornado watches were up late this afternoon in the same parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Kansas that dealt with the destructive storms Friday and Saturday. A few more tornadoes could strike Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow.

The overall weather pattern for the next few days is favorable for these severe storms over the next several days. It is, after all, the peak of tornado season. 

As awful as last weekend was, we could have more deaths and more destruction in the  coming weeks.

 

Spring/Summer Vermont Rain Pattern Today: Some Places Drenched, Others Just Misted

 Today in Vermont will be much like Sunday:

National Weather Service radar around 7 a.m. today
showed a batch of thunderstorms in New York State
heading into southern Vermont, while more
showers, some rather heavy, lurked just north of the
border.  Showers and storms are a risk all day today.

Some places will get absolutely drenched, others only dampened. Some lightning and thunder could mix in across a few places, too. 

Also, it's hard to say exactly who will get the downpours and who won't.   If this sounds like things you hear in the summer, you're right. 

We've entered the season of hit and miss showers and storms. Expect a lot of days like this from now until at least Labor Day.

On Sunday, a few towns in Vermont had more than an inch of rain. Other towns had less than a tenth of an inch. Most places settled on half an inch, give or take. 

The same scenario will be roughly true today, though the heavy rain towns today might be different from those on Sunday. Or maybe not. It's a roll of the dice. 

As of early this morning patches of showers and thunderstorms were over southern Quebec, central New York and southern New England. Some of the Quebec activity was crossing over into northern Vermont. The New York downpours and rumbles of thunder seemed to be headed toward southern parts of the state. 

Overall, the chances of rain and storms will peak between 7 and 9 a.m. today. Then we will probably (but not definitely!) see a lull in the late morning into lunch time. Things will ramp up again in the afternoon and evening as a cold front begins to move through. 

Especially if we get some breaks in the clouds to increase instability in the atmosphere, some afternoon and evening showers and storms could get rather noticeable, though not severe. The more intense ones could feature small hail and torrential downpours. 

Like Sunday's event, this could cause local problems with deep pools of water on some poorly drained streets, and maybe some minor small stream flooding in a couple spots. Like what I had in St. Albans Sunday, when a rush of water pushed logs down stream, almost clogging my culvert. The property adjacent to mine had  a mini-landslide, though no real damage occurred. 

That kind of thing is possible today. But those instances will be pretty few and far between, like they were on Sunday. 

Although the style of rain today is kind of summer-like, temperatures sure won't be. We won't get fully into the warm, humid air that's helping to fuel this system. It was in the mid 80s to around 90 as far north as New York City yesterday. 

For us, just like yesterday, temperatures here in Vermont will hold in the 50s to possibly near 60. 

A guess we are in a literal rinse and repeat cycle this week. Tomorrow will be much like Monday was, with quite a few clouds around, cool temperatures and maybe a shower. 

It turns warmer toward the end of the week. Lots of little systems will be coming through with scattered showers. So far, though, nothing after today looks super impressive. That said, computer models are hazy on exactly what kind of weather we'll have Saturday and beyond.  

We're still in a transition season. Going through May, some weather systems might still bring the type of steady, widespread rain we get in cooler season storms. Many other days will feature the warm season type scattered showers and storms. 

As long as things don't get out of hand like they did last summer, I plan to enjoy those thunderstorms. In many ways, they're my favorite kind of weather.  

Surprisingly Heavy Downpours Sunday. Will We Do It Again Tuesday?

Heavy looking clouds near South Burlington, Vermont
Sunday afternoon portended some unexpectedly
heavy downpours in parts of northern Vermont. 
We might see some more heavy showers Tuesday. 

 UPDATE 10:30 a.m.:

Surprised again.

More rain showers are making inroads into what we thought was too-dry air for much activity.

So at least parts of Vermont should be more showery today than I indicated below.

It won't rain all the time.  But we are under some risk of showers today. Especially central and southern Vermont as it looks now.

It will probably be even a little cooler than first forecast because of the extra clouds associated with the showers

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

After the morning thunderstorms Sunday, I thought any showers we'd receive later in the day would be pretty scattered and probably not that impressive. 

If there were to be any downpours, they'd be really brief, and most of us would only get a little rain.

So much for that idea.

Some of those downpours late Sunday afternoon were remarkably heavy and persistent. 

They lacked the spark and crackle of the morning lightning storms. But much of northern Vermont received a half inch to an inch of rain Sunday. I'm sure a few spots had a little more than that. 

I didn't have my rain gauge out yet, silly me. But judging from the sudden river flowing through my property late Sunday afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised if I had more than an inch of rain.

By the way, the lightning Sunday morning had some sad consequences. Lightning struck a four unit apartment building in Morristown, Vermont.  The lightning caused a fire that left extensive damage and occupants of all four units displaced. 

The storms Sunday left things pretty squishy underfoot once again.  That leaves us at risk for perhaps some minor flooding Tuesday if things come together a certain way in the atmosphere.  It's a tricky forecast. It's all about temperature gradients and stubborn weather systems. 

We'll go through it here

TODAY

A cold front came through last night.  That's why we had all that rain.  The air got quite humid Sunday afternoon for this time of year.  The cold front provided enough lift to wring out that moisture. 

The front has sagged south into southern Vermont.  That will set up quite a temperature gradient today. Highs will only reach the mid 50s in many spots north of Route 2 but reach 70 in southeastern Vermont. 

The cool high pressure system is feeding in dry air in at least some layers of the atmosphere. The result will be a fair amount of clouds today, but very little in the way of showers. There might be some spot sprinkles here or there, but that's it. 

TONIGHT/TUESDAY

A surge of very warm, humid air will try to make a run at us. That cold front that came through last night will start to move north as a warm front. But that strong, stubborn cool high pressure over northern Quebec will push back against that surging muggy air.

That places Vermont square in the battleground. We'll mostly stay in the cooler air, but the humid air will try to go up and over that cooler air. The result could be more downpours.  

The question is where those heavy showers will set up. Will they repeat over the same area? How much rain will fall and where?

Those are questions that are tough to answer with this kind of weather pattern. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going with a round of showers late tonight and tomorrow morning, and another one Tuesday evening. 

As always, forecasts are subject to change. 

Early bets have the heaviest rain in northern Vermont, but we'll see. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has most of Vermont in a low level marginal risk zone for possible flooding.  If anything does materialize it looks like it will be pretty minor. 

So we're not about to re-live last summer's mess.

Better yet, the rain won't persist for days.  It looks drier and somewhat warmer once we get into midweek with only very low chances of light showers. Another storm system might affect us on the weekend. But computer models are all over the place on that one, so we have no idea yet now the weekend weather will shake out. 

Second Day Of Intense Tornadoes Take Toll On Oklahoma, Surrounding States

 The continuing siege of tornadoes in the nation's middle claimed three lives in Oklahoma last night, but this huge bout of severe weather is showing signs of slowing down a little. 

Tornado aftermath in Sulfur, Oklahoma today. Photo
from KayDubEll on Reddit 

At least for now.

It can't get any busier. As of today, there's 78 reports of tornadoes Friday, mostly in Nebraska and Iowa. On Saturday, there were 40 tornado reports from northern Texas to Missouri, with the bulk of them in Oklahoma. 

Tornado activity was somewhat at a minimum in central and eastern Oklahoma during the day Saturday, as atmospheric conditions didn't quite come together enough to set off the expected tornado outbreak. However, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes raked parts of Texas, southwestern Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri all day Saturday. 

Mostly after dark, the atmosphere over Oklahoma set itself up for dangerous, big tornadoes, and unfortunately delivered.

Nighttime tornadoes are especially dangerous because people are usually sleeping or otherwise paying less attention to weather warnings. Plus, many people wait to see a visual clue a tornado is coming, and that's usually hard to do at night. 

The three deaths in Oklahoma are horrific, of course,  but that death toll would have been much higher without the incessant warnings that issued last evening and overnight as twisters roamed the state.

Downtown Sulfur, Oklahoma was destroyed by a tornado. As first responders swarmed into town to help, they were told to take cover as another tornado lurked nearby. Later, at least 20 injuries were reported in Sulfur while rescuers continued to sift through the wreckage looking for other survivors. 

Drone video from Live Storms Media showed most buildings in downtown Sulfur at least damaged, with several completely collapsed. An apartment complex was torn apart, and numerous homes were roofless or otherwise trashed. 

Another tornado was reported in Norman, which is right in the Oklahoma City metro area. Ardmore,  Oklahoma also reported heavy tornado damage. 

Meanwhile, the cleanup started in earnest across parts of Nebraska and Iowa from Friday's intense tornadoes.  Locals marveled that nobody died in those twisters, which is a testament to the advance warning people received from the National Weather Service and local television stations. 

The outbreak was so intense and widespread that the National Weather Service office in Omaha, Nebraska had to issue a total of 42 tornado warnings. 

Nationwide, the National Weather Service has issued 250 tornado warnings are nearly 500 severe thunderstorm warnings since Friday, the Washington Post reports. 

Several interviews I saw included survivors who said they were in their basements or storm shelters when the tornadoes hit because the warnings gave them enough time to take shelter. 

In the coming week, severe weather and tornadoes will not be nearly as widespread as they were over the weekend, but will still be scattered around the South over the next several days. 

This afternoon, forecasters were watching an area where Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas meet for a risk of tornadoes.

On Tuesday, the same areas of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa that were hit so hard on Friday are under a tornado threat again.  But that threat at this point doesn't appear as horrible as it was on Friday.

During the upcoming week, there is a threat of severe weather in the southern Plains and Southeast, but forecasters are unsure how extensive that threat will become. 

Northern Vermont Gets Wake Up Call Announcing Start Of Thunderstorm Season

Daylight before dawn. Screen grab of video as lightning
lit everything up in St. Albans, Vermont around
5:30 a.m today. 

 It's about that time of year when we start seeing thunderstorms, and northern Vermont got a wake up call regarding that early this Sunday morning. 

A nice big cluster of thunderstorms move from southern Ontario and Quebec crossed the international border into New York and Vermont early this morning at dawn.  The storms were by no means severe.

But they did produce impressively frequent lightning, downpours and small hail.  

Here in St. Albans, there was lightning and thunder for more than two hours beginning at roughly 5 a.m.  The strongest storm here dumped a pretty good amount of pea sized hail mixed with a downpour at around at around 5:45 a.m. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington issued a couple of special weather statements alerting people to the possibility of hail up to the size of dimes. 

Those of you who saw lightning this morning might have noticed the thunder sounded a little weird at times. 

The storms were elevated above a temperature inversion. That means there was a layer of the atmosphere that warmed a little with height, instead of cooling like you'd normally see. The inversion formed sort of a lid over us. That lid bounced around the sound waves from the thunder, giving them this deep rolling, at times almost crackling sound. 

Screen grab from lightningmaps.org shows plenty
of stakes across northern Vermont, southern Quebec
and northeastern New York around 6 a.m. today.

In any event, the batch of storms moved south and gradually weakened as the morning went on.

After a bit of a break from the rain and lightning, latter this morning we have more convective showers and maybe another couple of rumbles of thunder in the plan for this afternoon. The sun's heating will help create some instability with will work with a cold front coming in from the north. 

The result will be hit and miss showers this afternoon. Especially in the northern half of Vermont

Today's thunder was just a taste. Going forward through May and into the summer, you'll see forecasts of thunderstorms pop up more and more frequently. Eventually, we'll have a few bouts with potentially severe thunderstorms. Nothing like that is coming in the immediate future, though. 

In other words, let's get ready to rumble. 

UPCOMING WEEK

The work week will start cooler than forecasts issued a few days ago indicated. Cool high pressure from Canada will keep highs Monday in the upper 50s north of Route 2 to the low and mid 60s down to Route 4, and upper 60s in low elevations far south. 

That's close to normal, or a smidge below normal north for this time of year.

Another weather disturbance in a series brings more cool temperatures and showers Tuesday.  Wednesday and Thursday are looking somewhat drier and warmer before more showers arrive late in the week.  

After that, it's beginning to look like we might get into one those typical but vaguely annoying persistent May weather patterns featuring relatively cool temperatures, frequent clouds and an ever-present risk of light showers. 

Vermont Spring Gardens Persevere Through Early Season Run Of Bad Luck

I gotta ask my fellow gardeners out there: Has this spring so far been especially challenging for you?

Challenging spring in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens
so far, but things are still getting more and more
beautiful as the season progresses.       

I know, I know, the growing season has just barely hinted at starting. We've got an incredibly long way to go. 

This is whiny but the past few weeks have been a little more onerous out there than usual. That April 4-5 snowstorm wrecked two trees on my property that I liked. It could have been worse as other, more important trees I thought might suffer managed to get through that. 

Unlike so many people here in St. Albans, my property suffered minimal wind damage in those horrible  twin wind storms back in January.  Phew, dodged a bullet right?

I shouldn't have been so smug. On April 12, gusty winds took down two large trees, which fell on and shattered into pieces on my largest perennial garden. Not a lot of actual damage, but a huge cleanup. Thank goodness my husband - always looking for a project - sawed up an immense amount of those branches for me. 

Then we just had that freeze. The garden was blooming to early. Thanks to another climate change early spring. Which meant the late April cold snap we just had, which wasn't the least bit odd on a historical basis, caused some tense moments. 

And some nonconsequential but disheartening damage. Some of the daffodils flopped over onto the ground, their stems frozen then thawed into a mush that couldn't support the blooms on top. The little magnolia tree won't bloom this year. The lilac in front of the house has tons of flower buds, but will they bloom now that they've been frozen twice? Stay tune. 

Has anyone noticed the mosquitoes? Or is it just at my place? They first went on the attack here during the Great American eclipse on April 8.  That is incredibly early to see mosquitoes. 

Now there's swarms of them. I've always dealt with lots of black flies this time of year. Mosquitoes are an occasional problem all spring and summer. But where did these swarms come from?  For the first time since I've had this house, way more than a decade, we can't open the sliding glass doors in the living room on warm afternoons. The mosquitoes swarm right in.

I wonder if the warm winter - it never did get below zero - allowed mosquitoes to survive the winter and thrive?

All this is by no means the end of gardening, at least around my house. The daffodils are beautiful, even if a few of them are leaning awkwardly. Everything's greening up nicely, and unless disaster really strikes, it still looks like I have a full spring, summer and early autumn of perennials to enjoy. Hopefully, the pollinators buzzing around out there like this spread, too.

Climate change and invasive species have certainly made gardening more challenging than it used to be in Vermont and pretty much everywhere else.  

What have you experienced in your garden?  Is the weather causing unexpected problems for you? Or have things actually gotten better? Inquiring minds want to know. 

Big Tornado Outbreak Underway: Nebraska/Iowa Hit Hard; Oklahoma Under Threat Today

 A destructive tornado outbreak is underway in the middle of the nation, and it could turn out to be among the more significant ones in the past few decades. 

Tornado near Lincoln, Nebraska Friday.
image from X @LNKScanner

Nebraska and Iowa took the brunt of Friday's tornadoes. Dozens of homes and businesses in the two states were destroyed. Amazing, so far I haven't seen reports of any deaths. It helped greatly that these storms were very well warned. 

The worst affected area Friday seems to be on a straight line from just north of Lincoln, Nebraska to the western suburbs of Omaha into western Iowa above Omaha. Dramatic video captured a large tornado crossing Interstate 80 near Lincoln.

A manufacturing plant in Lincoln with 70 people inside collapsed in the tornado but only three people suffered non-life threatening injuries. 

The western Omaha suburbs of Elkhorn and Bennington were hit hard, with at least 50 homes destroyed. But again, casualties were light. Only two injuries were reported.

That so far no deaths and only a smattering of injuries have been reported is testimony to the great tornado warnings issued ahead of the storms. The National Weather Service declared a tornado emergency for the western and northern Omaha metro region as it became apparent a tornado would approach that area.

This "hair on fire" type warning surely prompted lots of people to hide in basements and tornado shelters, and that prevented deaths. 

A tornado emergency was also declared in southwestern Iowa, where a huge tornado destroyed a large chunk of Minden. Aerial views show entire neighborhoods there flattened.

It's possible a tornado was on the ground that entire distance from Lincoln into Iowa, But far more likely is the parent supercell dropped several twisters along that path. 

Typically, a tornadic supercell will produce a tornado that might travel several miles before dissipating. The supercell takes a brief breather, then drops another twister that goes several more miles. Rinse and repeat.

Yet another supercell seems to have produced some occasionally large, violent tornadoes east of Omaha well into Iowa.  Between those two lines, a tornado touched down at Eppley Field, which is Omaha's airport. Some buildings on the east end of the airport were damaged, but the storm didn't affect the main terminal.   

Later at night, tornadoes approached the Des Moines, Iowa area, with damage reported in the southern and eastern parts of the city and its suburbs. 

In all, there were about 100 reports of tornadoes Friday. Many of those reports are probably duplicates, with multiple people reporting the same, highly visible twisters. 

TORNADOES TODAY

If anything, today could be even worse in terms of tornadoes. 

A moderate risk - the second highest in a six-point scale of severe weather risk is up for central Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas and a part of northern Texas.

The Oklahoma City area, especially its suburbs of Moore and Newcastle, seem to be tornado bait for some reason and have been repeatedly hit by large, deadly tornadoes in recent decades. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says several large, powerful and long-tracked tornadoes are likely today. 

Flooding is also likely in many of the same areas that are under the greatest tornado threat. 

A Record-Breaking Hurricane Season? One Forecast Group Says So

A University of Pennsylvania team is forecast a 
record busy hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean
this year. It's the second major prediction that calls
for a potentially chaotic and dangerous season.

A forecasting group from the University of Pennsylvania said they expect a record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season with perhaps 33 named storms.  

If you think I've already written about a hurricane forecast this year, you're right. A  Colorado State University forecast issued in early April which said 23 tropical storms or hurricanes were in the cards for the Atlantic Ocean this summer and autumn. 

The newer University of Pennsylvania hurricane forecast that just came out is in line with, but definitely more ominous than that Colorado State University prediction. 

The forecast from the University of Pennsylvania team, led by climatologist Michael Mann, actually has a forecast of between 27 and 39 named storms, but 33 is their more pinpointed forecast. If there's 33 named storms, that would exceed the current record for the most number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean in a single season. That was a total of 30 such storms in 2020.

An average season produces about 14 Atlantic storms, about half of which become hurricanes. Seven of the past eight years have been busier than normal hurricane seasons. Warm ocean waters - probably with climate change contributing - have helped force these storms. 

THE REASONING

One big reason for Mann & Co's bullish 2024 hurricane forecast is the already hot water in the Atlantic Ocean in the region where most hurricane develop. Per the Washington Post: 

"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects a marine heat wave, or sea surface temperature well above normal, to continue in the tropical Atlantic through at least September. That has forecasters concerned about an active hurricane season because warmer ocean waters typically increase the intensity of storms."

Another reason why the team at the University of Pennsylvania think this year is going to be a blockbuster for hurricanes is that El Nino is rapidly falling apart. El Nino is a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean.  That warming contributes to strong upper level winds in the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean.

Those strong upper level winds tear apart thunderstorms that are the building blocks for tropical storms and hurricanes. Rip apart those thunderstorms and you rip apart the chances they'll grow into a hurricane  

Long range forecasts for the summer and fall call for the opposite of El Nino, which is La Nina. That consisted of coolish water in the eastern Pacific and calmer upper level winds over the Atlantic. That would more likely allow tropical storms and hurricanes to form. 

If La Nina fails to develop, the number of expected hurricanes in the Atlantic would decrease this year, Mann says. But only a little. That hot water out there would still contribute to storms. 

TRACK RECORD

Here's something that might make people who don't like hurricanes more nervous. The University of Pennsylvania hurricane predictions in most recent years have more often than not predicted fewer such storms than what actually developed. 

Last year, the University of Pennsylvania team predicted 16 tropical storms and hurricanes. We ended up with 20. Luckily the majority of those missed populated land areas.

In that blockbuster year of 2020, University of Pennsylvania predicted 20 storms, ten less than the Atlantic actually produced.

The last time University of Pennsylvania sort of predicted too many storms was in 2016. They anticipated 19 storms and we got 15. Even so, 2016 was within their margin of error. They actually said there would be 19 storms that year, plus or minus four. 

WHERE THEY GO

What really matters, of course, is where hurricanes go after they form. If they have an opportunity to head north well off the coast and hit cold water in the North Atlantic, then no problem. They just go up there and die.

If a strong Bermuda High is north of a hurricane and that high pressure system extends its influence into the United States, chances are the hurricane would head into the Gulf of Mexico. At that point, anything from Florida to Texas could take a hit, or the storm could just divert to Mexico instead. It depends on the steering patterns over the Gulf. 

If there's a dip in the jet stream in the central United States, that dip could steer a hurricane into the East Coast. If that dip in the jet stream is right along or just off the East Coast, chances are that hurricane would be steered safely out to sea. It all depends on the weather pattern when the hurricane is roaming around out there. 

Of course, the more hurricanes there are, the greater the chance that some will hit land. Which is why the University of Pennsylvania forecast is so worrying. 

Already the Atlantic Ocean is beginning and to throw hints of what might be to come. The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday they were monitoring a swirling disturbance in the east central Atlantic Ocean. 

It looked like a nascent tropical storm, though strong upper level winds were forecast to destroy the small storm before it could grow much.  That one was a fizzle, but soon enough, we'll start having tropical storms and hurricanes that could spell trouble. 

 

Back To Spring, And Spring Showers After This Morning's Vermont Freeze

 Temperatures at dawn in Vermont were a couple degrees warmer at dawn today than yesterday. 

Frosty leaves in the garden again this morning
in St. Albans, Vermont. 

That's not saying much, since pretty much everybody in the Green Mountain State was in the 20s, with a few teens in the cold hollows.  

Still, the fact that it was a tiny bit "warmer" than dawn Thursday ist he first sign that spring is about to return after a couple days away. 

 The sky is clear again, and the air is still super dry so temperatures will rocket upward as the sun takes over. 

 It will be a good ten degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon, so it will be in the 50s. Possibly near 60 degrees. Nice, just a little cooler than average.

The dry air will give us another chilly night, with temperatures near or below freezing again by Saturday morning. But if you're worried about any additional garden freeze damage, relax, it won't be that bad.

DRY TO "HUMID"

The super dry air we've had the past couple of days is going to be a thing of the past by Sunday. Saturday will be a transition day, as we get warmer and clouds begin to creep in.  Nice day, though, with highs in the 60s. 

A warm front will come in Saturday night. That will spread a little rain in overnight into Sunday.  Bonus: No snow. There's actually a chance warmer valleys will not see any additional snow again until October or November. So there's that.

After Saturday, I guess you can put away the ChapStick for awhile. By Sunday afternoon, the air will actually have sort of a humid feel to it.  Which is a remarkable switch from what has been the desert dry air we are in now. 

It won't be oppressive, but if you're exerting yourself on Sunday  afternoon, you'll sort of notice it. If sun breaks through, we could get temperatures in the low 70s.Weak weather disturbances and the vaguely humid air will combine to produce some scattered showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder, especially north, Sunday.  Kind of like summer. 

I guess if we're going to transition away from basically winter in the desert like we've had the past couple of days, we might as well go all in. 

WARM, BUT NOT THAT WARM

Longer range forecasts had been bullish on a warm close to April and equally warm start to May, but they've backed off on that. But at least it will be, well, normal.  Next week looks unsettled, with frequent chances of showers. It won't rain all the time, but there will often be that risk of raindrops.

We will have to watch for a back door cold front that could make northern Vermont a bit chillier Monday and eastern Vermont cool on Tuesday. That cold front makes forecasting temperatures a little trickier than first thought. 

It depends on where this cold front sets up and how fast it moves. There's a chance this front could hold down temperatures a little in northern Vermont on Monday, and then perhaps east of the Green Mountains Tuesday. 

But nobody is that sure. At least if parts of Vermont get in the cooler air behind the front, it won't be that bad. Certainly not another frost and freeze.  

If garden plants were damaged in this week's harsh freeze, it will be interesting to see how well they recover. They weren't that far advanced, and most of the stuff that was blooming are pretty hardy, so I think we escaped a garden nightmare from our freeze.

Quick Vermont Freeze Update: Just As Cold Tonight As Last Night

Satellite view late this afternoon clues us in for tonight. 
Clear skies overhead, clear skies to our west coming
in means another frigid night, about as cold as it was 
last night, with lows in the teens in cold 
hollows and 20s for the rest of us. 

 Just a quick Thursday evening update on our hard freeze weather here in Vermont, since we're half way through it.   

First, final figures are in for who in the Green Mountain State got coldest this morning. 

East Have, Vermont takes the honors as the state's coldest spot, bottoming out at 12 degrees above zero. Gallup Mills saw 16 degrees, South Lincoln was 17 and Lunenburg was 18.

Tonight's lows statewide will be very similar to last night's.

The overall air mass has warmed up a tad, but conditions will be absolutely perfect overnight for temperatures to reach their coldest possible. 

Chilly high pressure will be pretty much directly overhead, ensuring calm winds and clear skies.

It actually felt nice and fairly warm in the sun today, as breezes were light and the sun angle was high. Dry air heats up more readily the humid air, so we got well into the 40s to near 50 as expected.

Dry air also cools off fast once the sun goes down. You'll see temperatures really, really crash after sunset this evening, getting down below freezing within hours. After midnight, with the air a little warmer aloft than it was last night, will slow the rate at which temperatures fall.

Still, it'll get into the teens in the cold hollows and 20s for the rest of us.  Those lows will be pretty much the same as they were this morning. 

The dry air and warming air will mean temperatures will get nice again Friday, going up into the 50s to near 60. After another cool night Friday night, we will return to spring. 

Vermont Morning Lows Today Near Or Even Colder Than Forecast, One More Frigid Night Before Warmup

These daffodils in my St. Albans, Vermont yard, upright
and perky yesterday, slumped to the ground after
last night's hard freeze. Even if they somehow 
survive, they'll get hit just as hard again tonight. 

Those temperatures really did bottom out this morning in and near Vermont with some impressive low temperatures.  

Final figures weren't in yet when I wrote this after 8 a.m. But up in the Northeast Kingdom, Gallup Mills got down to at least 16 degrees and Eden reached 18 degrees.  

Morrisville reached 19 degrees and Montpelier got down to 20 degrees. Montpelier's low was close to a record low, but not there. The current record low for today's date is 17 in 1965 and that will stay. 

Over in New York State, the perennial cold spot Saranac Lake got down to a wintry 12 degrees. That wasn't a record low, either. In 1956 it got down to 10 degrees at that frigid spot in the Adirondacks.

Plattsburgh, New York, managed to set two record lows. It was 25 degrees there, just before midnight let night, setting a record low for April 24. Then it got to 23 degrees around dawn this morning for another record low.

Data in Plattsburgh only goes back to 1945, so there's a good chance it might have been colder there in past years, like during an intense cold snap in late April, 1919.

It's too soon to tell how much garden damage there is, but even hardy plants appeared to suffer, at least in my yard. Daffodils, perky and upright yesterday, are now slumped to the ground as if in mourning. I don't yet know if they'll recover, or shrivel up and die. Especially since they have another rough night ahead of them. 

TODAY

Dry air will be sort of our friend today. After the cold front passed yesterday, it stayed mostly cloudy, holding temperatures in the 30s all afternoon for central and northern Vermont, at a time of year when readings should have been in the upper 50s to around 60.

Today will be a little better because of that dry air. (Spoiler: The arid air will be our enemy tonight, though, more on that in a moment). 

More daffodils that collapsed in last night's hard freeze
in Vermont. 

The dry air will encourage wall to wall sunshine.  Sunshine heats up dry air much more quickly than humid air. 

Temperatures were already surging upward as of 8:15 a.m. today. That should bring us well into the 40s by afternoon. A few warmer valleys might touch 50 degrees. 

True, that's still quite a bit colder than average, but better than it felt Wednesday afternoon. The high sun angle helps too. It won't be that windy

Tonight will be clear and frigid again as that cold high pressure sits right overhead. Very dry air also loses its heat quickly once the sun goes down. Light winds and clear skies assure that any heat gathered today will drift right off to space.

So it will be as cold at dawn Friday as it was this morning. Yep, teens in the cold hollows, 20s for the rest of us. 

COLD TO END

Friday will be much nicer with highs well into the 50s. Another night of clear, dry air Friday night will ensure another subfreezing night for most of us, but it won't be as cold as the previous two nights.

We're still looking at a substantial warmup over the weekend and early next week.  Highs are still forecast to hit 70 or better possibly Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Nights starting Sunday night will be even warmer, relative to average. Many of us will see lows in the 50s. There's even a chance a couple of record for warmest minimum temperature for the date could be set. Which would be a big switch from what we're experiencing now.

It looks like it will be pretty showery Saturday night through probably at least Wednesday, but it certainly won't rain all the time. No complete washouts, anyway.  

National Break From Tornadoes Ending In A Big Way

A supercell thunderstorm looking north from Sheldon,
Vermont on May 4, 2018. We're safe from any violent
thunderstorms over the next several days. However,
vast areas of the nation's middle are at daily risk of
severe storms each of the next five days at least,
starting Thursday afternoon. 

In an April 19 post,  I mentioned that tornado activity was temporarily stopping in the United States even as we headed into the height of twister season. 

I said that wouldn't last forever, and boy was I right, and so was virtually every forecaster watching the situation. 

We're about to embark on a severe weather outbreak that will last several days.  There's a strong likelihood of at least a few tornadoes daily at least into early next week.

Of course, the U.S. hasn't exactly been immune from severe thunderstorms over the past few days. It's spring, so it's hard to avoid them. 

On Saturday, severe hail and wind storms hit the Carolinas. Rock Hill, South Carolina was hit by baseball sized hail propelled by winds gusting to 90 mph. As you might imagine, damage was pretty extreme in that area.

Video from the Rock Hill storm with the wind and heavy hail is about as chaotic as you can get from a severe thunderstorm. 

Lumberton, North Carolina was hit by hailstones up to 4.5 inches in diameter, which is about the size of a grapefruit.   That size stone would at least tie the record for the largest hailstone ever found in North Carolina.

Tuesday, intense winds from a severe thunderstorm derailed a train near Abilene, Texas.  

However, a weather pattern that is bringing us in Vermont those hard, plant-damaging freezes tonight and tomorrow night also flooded most of the nation east of the Rockies with relatively cool and definitely dry air. 

That combo discourages the types of thunderstorms that can cause big hail, damaging winds and tornadoes,

But that weather pattern is breaking down. Warm, wet air is about to flood into much of the nation east of the Rockies. Dry air will make it into the parts of the southern and central Plains at times.  This pattern will also feature frequent storms forming in the southern Rockies and then moving northeastward toward the Great Lakes.

It's a classic spring tornado pattern and it looks like it will last more or less for a week or more. 

The bottom line: The next few days will be a tornado chaser's dream, but otherwise a threat to tens of millions of people. Unfortunately a tiny percentage of those people are about to lose their houses to tornadoes or other severe weather. 

The best case scenario will be that the strongest tornadoes avoid hitting towns and stick to open rangeland and farms with few or no buildings. 

It's impossible to say how many tornadoes will touch down, but it could be dozens over the next week

DETAILS:

There could be a couple more severe storms and maybe a tornado in west Texas this evening, but the real show starts tomorrow. 

Thursday

Friday afternoon and evening, a broad zone from southern Nebraska to central Texas is under the gun. It looks like western and central Kansas, western Oklahoma and parts of the Texas panhandle have the best chance of seeing tornadoes.

In this part of the nation, population centers are few and far between, so we do have a good chance that even if any tornadoes get particularly strong, they could thread the needle and avoid hitting towns and cities in the risk area. Fingers crossed!

Friday

Saturday's risk areas focus on most of Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas and parts of Oklahoma and Texas.  This area is far more built up than Friday's zone. Big metropolitan areas like Des Moines, Omaha, Kansas City, St. Louis, Oklahoma City and Dallas-Fort Worth are in this zone. 

That doesn't necessarily mean any of those cities or suburbs will take a tornado hit. Chances are they won't. But it'll be a day to keep an eye to the skies in those areas. 

One mitigating factor could be that storms left over from Friday would interfere with the development of new potentially tornado-producing supercell thunderstorms. 

Weekend 

The risk zone appears on Saturday to extend in a band from Texas to Wisconsin, with the biggest risk of trouble in central Kansas and Oklahoma. A second storm system coming out of the Rockies will help to re-invigorate severe storms and potential tornadoes. By Sunday, the risk zone looks like it will back almost where it's expected on Friday  - from Iowa and Illinois to eastern Texas

Other Problems

This new weather pattern also carries other risks. Bone dry, windy conditions in parts of New Mexico Colorado and western Texas could set off new wildfires and rangeland fires. It's already been a busy spring in that next of the woods for fires, so this might just make the whole situation worse.

In the humid air further east in the Midwest, repeated rounds of storms over the next few days could touch off some flash flooding. In some instances it could be locally quite severe.

Vermont Effects

The change in the weather pattern means Vermont's weather will change, too. We'll endure the hard freezes tonight and tomorrow night before the air turns a lot warmer over the weekend and the first half of next week. 

Highs could easily hit the 70s. 

The cold and warm fronts and remnants from those Midwest storm systems will head into Vermont as they weaken. That keeps us at risk for rather frequent showers Saturday night into Wednesday. There could even be a few thunderstorms thrown in next week. At this point, it doesn't look like that activity will be scary or damaging. Just the usual spring shower.s 

Vermont Cold Blast Still On. Forecasters Back Off On Snow, But COLD Tonight, Thursday Night

My perennial garden looking pretty good in the rain
this morning in St. Albans, Vermont after husband Jeff
removed debris from the tree that fell on it back on April 12.
We'll see how this garden weathers the hard freezes
due tonight and tomorrow night. 

 It was still pretty mild out there early this morning as our dreaded Arctic cold front still lurked a little to our north and west. 

I guess we should be happy that forecasters have backed off on snow chances this afternoon. 

Instead of accumulations almost statewide, most of any light snow cover should stay at or above 1,000 feet in elevation. It'll mostly be just rain just before and during the transition to cold. 

Snow flakes will still probably make it down into valley floors this afternoon as temperatures crash down through the 40s and into the 30s. Winter arrives today, for sure for a short stay, anyway. 

Of course, a difference of a couple degrees could surprise us with an unexpected burst of heavier snow, but that looks less likely now, 

THE FREEZE

The real story of course is the temperatures. It will be the chilliest night since March 25, when it was in the upper single numbers and teens across Vermont. It won't be that cold tonight, of course, but it will far below freezing across all of Vermont, except maybe right along the immediate shores of Lake Champlain. 

It won't be nearly as cold as it was in late March,   but now we have garden plants and shrubs blooming and budding. It'll be Friday before we know how things weathered the cold. 

Although forecasters have relaxed a little about snow chances today, the predictions have stayed very consistent for the cold tonight. 

The air coming in is super dry, which is common for bursts of air from Canada this time of year. That will allow the skies to clear out very fast this evening.  That, in turn, will let temperatures keep crashing downward. 

By dawn, it will be in the upper teens in the cold hollows, and between 21 and 27 degrees for the vast majority of us. 

HISTORICAL COMPARISON

On a historical basis, such temperatures this time of year are not super out of the ordinary for this time of year. It's been colder than what we're expecting tonight on several occasions this time of year. 

Interestingly, the coldest spell on record exactly mirrors what's happening now, but it won't turn out to be quite as bad.

The high and low temperature in Burlington exactly matched yesterday, April 23, 2024 and on April 23, 1919. The high and low temperatures on both days were 70/33.   Just like today, a very sharp cold front came through on April 24, 1919, dropping temperatures from 56 in the morning to 27 by midnight. 

But that 1919 Arctic blast was much worse than this one will be. The  low temperature on April 25, 1919 in Burlington was 20 degrees, and it only made it to 27 degrees that afternoon. Yes, the "high" was well below freezing. Then it got down to 20 again the next night, and only to 35 on the afternoon of the 26th. It also snowed a little both days. 

This time around, the low temperature forecast tomorrow morning in Burlington is around 25, and it should make it into the mid-40s by afternoon. 

The cold snap we're about to get is less intense but more fraught than in 1919 because of climate change. Gardens and plants in general are much further along now than they were at this time in 1919, setting us up for the chance of frost and freeze damage this time. 

Luckily, most major orchards are not blooming yet, just budding, so that might save some damage. Also, garden plants like daffodils and such are pretty tough. It will still be interesting to see how lilacs do this year after the upcoming freeze. Fingers crossed they'll be beautiful in May despite this expected freeze. 

NEXT UP

Thursday night will be a couple degrees warmer than tonight will be, but winds will be calmer than tonight. That sets the stage for more frost, which can be more damaging to plants than just a freeze with no frost. So we'll see how that goes.

By Friday afternoon, it'll pretty much be over as sunshine boosts us well into the 50s by afternoon. Friday night will be kind of cold again but not as bad as the previous two nights.

After that, the weather pattern will settle into one that's warmer but unsettled Saturday into next week. Highs will get well into the 60s to maybe low 70s during that period, but there will be frequent chances of showers.  

Very Hot Times In United States - Including Vermont - This Summer If NOAA Forecast Is Accurate

NOAA says the vast majority of the Lower 48 of the
United States has a stronger chance of a hot summer
than chances of cool weather. Vermont is among
the areas that have the greatest chance of a hot summer.

We here in Vermont are in for a nasty cold blast tomorrow and tomorrow night, but if long range forecasts are any indication, we might look back at this weeks upcoming big freeze with a sense of nostalgia.  

NOAA this past week updated its seasonal forecasts. If they're right, the United States is in for one scorcher of a summer.

Vermont could be in one of the hottest zones, relative to average that is, if the NOAA forecast is accurate.

The forecast covering June, July and August says that chances favor above normal temperatures for the entire Lower 48 except in North Dakota and small sections of adjoining states.  There, it's a tossup as to whether summer will be warmer and cooler than usual.

The best chances for a hot summer are in a broad area from Texas on up through most of the Rockies, and in all of New England and most of New York. 

Worse, if the NOAA forecast is correct the heat would be combined with a lot of humidity in the eastern United States. Those areas, which include Vermont, lean toward a somewhat wetter than average summer. That spells the risk of lots of horrible, humid days.  

A hot summer is by no means guaranteed around here. Forecasts for general weather patterns two, three or four months in the future are always at risk of being wrong. The hot summer prediction is better than flipping a coin, but NOAA doesn't always get it right. Nobody does for this type of forecast.

NOAA actually does forecasts for consecutive groups of three months. 

These predictions don't bode well for us in Vermont if there accurate

The period encompassing May, June and July - basically early summer - have the highest chances of being hotter than normal in most of the Northeast, including Vermont, western Texas and parts of New Mexico, and in parts of the Pacific Northwest.

Late summer, the period including July, August and September, also have the greatest odds of being on the hot side in New England and the Rocky Mountains. Interestingly, not one bit of the Lower 48 is forecast to be a tossup, normal or on the cool side in late summer. 

In the era of climate change, this hot forecast makes me wonder if we'll set another record in Vermont for hottest summer. 

All but one of the top five hottest summers in Burlington have happened since 2005.  

Although last summer was warmer than average, 2023 gave us a break from record and near record  warm stretches. The summer of 2020 was the hottest on record in Burlington. In 2021, we had our fourth hottest summer. And 2022 came in as a tie for eighth hottest. 

More Vermont Fire Risk Before Wintry Blast, Hard Freeze, Then Spring

Lots of wannabe lilac blooms on my big lilac
shrub in front of my St. Albans, Vermont house. 
Crossing my fingers they will survive 
Wednesday night's expected hard freeze.

 You can certainly tell at dawn this morning where the first stirrings of a warming south wind had started and where it was still calm and cold.  

It was in the low 40s in the Champlain Valley where a steady south wind was already blowing, but in the mid-20s elsewhere in Vermont after a clear, calm night. 

Those south winds will increase areawide today, giving us a quick squirt of warm air before winter unfortunately returns for a brief visit. 

The air is still really dry and is expected to stay that way all day. Winds gusting to 30 mph continues the fire danger that started yesterday.  

Yes, it's muddy underfoot still, and there's vernal pools in the woods. But the dead grass and leaves from last autumn have dried out in the sun. That's what can catch fire. Those fires can spread fast in today's winds. 

So, for the second day in a row, the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation has us in a high fire danger for the day. 

WINTER

The kind of respite from this brief period of fire risk is not the kind we want. 

Rain will break out overnight, then change to snow - yes, snow - during the afternoon Wednesday. That's normally the warmest time of day this time of year, when temperatures should be approaching 60 degrees.

Not on Wednesday! Temperatures in the 40s will crash through the 30s in the afternoon.  Snow will accumulate even in many of the valleys. Not much, though. Perhaps a dusting to an inch.  But it's still harsh. 

That's not the real problem this time of year. It's the temperatures. 

These lilac buds died and failed to bloom after
this harsh winter storm and freeze in April, 2021
Not nearly as much snow as that episode is expected
with the upcoming freeze, but temperatures will
fall far into the 20s by Thursday morning.
Coldest hollows will be in the upper teens. 

They'll go below freezing in the late afternoon and evening and stay subfreezing into Thursday morning.

 Skies will quickly clear and winds will die down overnight. That means lows by Thursday morning ranging from around 18 in the cold spots to maybe 30 degrees right next to Lake Champlain.

That puts most of us in the 22 to 27 degree range. 

That's similar to the horribly damaging freeze of last May 18. Thankfully, plants and trees aren't nearly as far along now as they were last May. 

Trees haven't leafed out.  Fruit trees aren't flowering yet. So damage this time will be much less.  Those orchards are budding for sure, but fingers crossed I think most (but perhaps not all) of those buds should make it through this cold snap. 

Vineyards are probably relatively safe, too.

Because it is before the official growing season, there won't be any freeze warnings in Vermont with this. We should be glad this frigid episode isn't happening a couple weeks later than it is.

Still, this might be a disheartening spell for gardeners, like me. If your magnolia tree is blooming and those blooms survived this morning's freeze, enjoy them today. Those blooms will be brown wreckage by Thursday. 

It'll be interesting to see how hardier early plants do. My lilacs have tons of flower buds, more than in most years, so I was looking forward to a huge lilac season.  

I do worry this will be like 2021, when my lilac buds ended up failing to flower after dying in a harsh snowstorm and deep freeze. We shall see, but I'm not super optimistic. 

This is turning out to be yet another spring in which plants outside start to bud and blossom too early because of oddly warm weather. Then a harsh freeze threatens them. It's become a depressing spring pattern. With this frigid spell, it will be the fifth year in a row it's happened, with varying degrees of damage. Mostly relatively minor, except for last year. 

It's the new, changed climate.  It's generally warmer than it used to be, so spring advances earlier than it once did. But the new climate is also more extreme, so we get these brief blasts of winter air to cause potential damage. 

SPRING 

These spring cold blasts are always very brief, and this one will be no exception. Thursday will be cold for the season, with highs in the 40s, and another nasty frost/freeze is likely Thursday night. Though it won't be as cold as the night before.

By Friday afternoon, we'll be well into the 50s, Saturday will see highs passing 60 degrees and we could get into the low 70s by Sunday or Monday.  

Study: Cost Of Climate Change To Be Much More Expensive Than Mitigating Temperature Rise

Climate change is becoming a big drag on the global
economy and a new study suggests that will keep
getting worse in the coming decades.

 It'll cost six times more money to deal with the cost of unmitigated climate change between now and 2050 than it would to keep global temperatures from reaching more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. 

Doing nothing to blunt climate change would cost roughly $38 trillion per year by 2049, concluded a study published in the journal Nature.  

As Artstechnica.com reports:

"They find that we're already committed to warming that will see the growth of the global economy undercuts by 20 percent. That places the cost of even a limited period of climate change at roughly six times the estimated price of putting the world on a path to limit the warming to 2 degrees C."

A common talking point among those who are fighting efforts to limit climate is that those efforts are too expensive and a drag on the global economy.  The Nature study completely contradicts that position. 

Nations worldwide would feel the economic effects of climate change, whether it be poor developing nations and others considered to be at the top of the economic heap, like the United States and Germany. 

It's not that economies will stop growing in the coming decades due to climate change. It's just they will grow more slowly than they would have without it.

You'd think that extreme weather brought on by climate change, such as floods, powerful storms or intense hurricanes would create the brunt of the coming economic chaos. Those events would indeed have an effect the researchers concluded.

However, just the overall increase in heat distributed throughout much of the world would have the biggest effect. The added heat on balance would harm crops and hinder labor production. (Which, as an aside, makes efforts by Florida and Texas to block municipalities in those states to provide rest and water breaks for outdoor workers look especially stupid).

Southern parts of North America and Europe take an economic hit from climate change while northern reaches benefit. The minority of nations that might actually benefit a bit from global warming include Canada,  Russia, Norway, Finland and Sweden, according to the study. 

The pattern repeats in the United States. Southern states take a bigger monetary hit from climate change compared to those closer to the Canadian border, 

Much of the economic harm through the middle of this century is already locked in due to climate change. But emissions reductions done now could go a long way toward blunting economic hard after 2050 from climate change is already locked.

You can read the Nature study for yourself at this hyperlink. 

 

Some Changes To Roller Coaster, Sometimes Wintry Vermont Week Forecast

That looks like perlite in my St. Albans, Vermont perennial
gardens, this morning, you know, the white pellets
that you see in potting mix. But it's snow pellets that
fell when a cold front passed through overnight. 
Wintry periods are in the forecast this week. 

 Right on schedule, the second of three "bowling ball" shots of cold spring air rolled into Vermont around midnight. It was accompanied by a whoosh of wind, gusting to 40 mph or so, and a few showers of graupel.  

(Graupel is sort of a combination snow and glorified small hail).

Skies cleared behind the front super fast, and it was clear by the time we woke up this morning. It's cold for the season this morning, but not wildly so. It's around 30 to 32, with mid 20s once you get up to 1,000 feet above sea level or so

FIRE RISK TODAY?

The air arriving today is super dry.  The humidity this afternoon will be in the 20 to 25 percent range, which is very low. The sun will be out and winds will gust to at least 25 mph from the northwest.

This is a recipe for fire weather. As noted in a post last week, these bursts of low humidity and wind dry out things super fast. That dead brush from last year can easily catch fire and the winds would spread it quickly. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation has all of Vermont in a high fire danger today.

So: No burning your brush pile, no flicking your cigarette butts out your car window and no playing with fire in your backyard today, please. 

It'll also be cool for the season with highs in the 40s to around 50 in the warmer valleys. Another freeze comes tonight.

TUESDAY

Much warmer ahead of our next bowling ball of cold air. Clouds will increase slowly during the day. Winds will turn gusty from the south. I think there will be another relatively high fire risk during the day. Humidity will be a little higher than today, but those gusty south winds would spread any fire that does start pretty effectively. 

Spring will return by afternoon - briefly - as we get into the 60s.

WEDNESDAY WINTER

We'll start off rainy on Wednesday but cold front - another bowling ball of chilly air - will blast in during the afternoon. It's going to be a crappy Wednesday afternoon to say the least. As temperatures crash downward through the 40s and into the 30s, rain will change to snow. 

The only good news is that the American computer model that I mentioned yesterday has backed away from the idea that it had about us getting several hours of heavy, wet snow.

Instead, dry air will sweep in, ending the snow for the most part in the evening. 

I am somewhat worried about how cold it will get Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Temperatures will fall well into the 20s, with low 20s fairly common in northern Vermont. A few cold hollows could hit the upper teens. 

So, you magnolia blooms will certainly be toast.  If any fruit trees are blooming early, they're in trouble. Luckily, most are budding so that will minimize the damage. Unlike last May when a killing freeze hit orchards while trees were in full bloom. 

Some garden perennials could get damaged, too, we shall see. Most I think will make it through OK.  

THURSDAY AND BEYOND 

We'll shake our brief excursion back to winter. Thursday will be a sunny, dry, chilly day, much like today. Thursday night will bring us another freeze, but probably not one as intense as Wednesday night's.

After that, regularly scheduled springtime will return. We just have to get through this weird weather week. 

Showers - rain showers to reassure you - might return by next Sunday.  We could even see some temperatures in the low 70s a week or so from now, too. 

Biden, Electrical Transformers, Climate Change, Demand, And Supplies Make For Complicated Mess

The Biden administration proposed
new rules to improve efficiency
of electrical transformers. Aim
was to help combat climate change.
Like most things, though, it got
complicated.

The Biden administration wanted new rules raising the energy efficiency standards for electric transformers. 

You know, those are the hoodickeys attached to a lot of power poles until they blow up in a dramatic flash during a storm or lightning strike, and shutting down the power to our homes

Problem was, in a small piece of a multi-pronged effort to combat climate change, the new transformer rules might have unintentionally done the opposite.  This is a relatively small episode, but in the grand scheme of things, it shows how efforts to confront climate change end up being a lot more complicated than you'd think.  

 Here's the set-up, as HuffPost describes it: 

Transformers are basically the connective tissue of power systems. 

Demand for electrical transformers is high. More development and sprawl is driving part of the demand. Climate change is also driving the market for these devices. People use more electricity on hot or smoky days to run air conditions and air purifiers. 

Climate change is also creating more frequent and intense  storms that make transformers go kablooey when strong winds rip at them or make trees and debris fall on them. Wildfires can also take out a bunch of transformers all at once. 

A third way climate change is creating booming demand for transformers is we're being encouraged to go electric to combat climate change. You need a bigger electrical grid, including plenty of transformers, along with the power lines and generation to feed all those EV plug ins. 

The problem, or potential problem, was that factories would need to use a different kind of steel and buy new equipment for the new rules set to take effect in 2027.  That risked creating a shortage of transformers when demand for them was already sky high. 

So the Biden people backed down. Sure, the rules would have helped an eensy, teensy bit in improving energy efficiency, which is definitely a goal if we want to reduce fossil fuel emissions. 

But a shortage of transformers might have stunted our transition away from fossil fuels toward clean energy.  You need transformers to ferry generated electricity from all those wind whirligigs and solar power stations out there to the outlet you plug your EV into. Or whatever.  

The rules have been dialed back after pressure from a wide variety of stakeholders, not the least of it were transformer manufacturers. 

A requirement for a special form of steel that would have been required in new transformers has been scrapped. That "special steel" would have forced transformer manufacturers to spend millions on new equipment that might end up becoming obsolete a few to several years later. 

Still some new energy efficiency regulations involving transformers are still scheduled to go into effect in five years.

HuffPost again:

"....the new standards still ratchet up efficiency of new transformers by enough to shave what the Energy Department estimated would be $14 billion off utility bills over the next 30 years, slashing nearly 85 million metric tons of carbon dioxide pollution - equal to the annual emissions of 11 million American homes - during the same period. 

The agency estimated the original proposal would have avoided 340 million metric tons of carbon pollution."

Regulators and presidential administrations seem to be constantly threading the needle between what environmentalists want and what industry wants. 

Environmentalists aren't happy with the transformer energy efficiency rules being watered down some. 

There's obviously a sense of urgency when it comes to combating climate change. It's also easy to get in the weeds when you do try to do something. 

This transformer kerfuffle is just one small example among many. 

 .