It's Burlington Vermont's Snowiest Season In 7 Years, But That's Not Saying Much

Heavy snow seen her crushing one of my lilac bushes
in the winter of 2018-19.  That was the last winter
we had more snow than this winter. This year's snowfall
is running close to normal. The winter of '19 was our 11th
snowiest on record. So we're lucky this year, I guess. 

The bad news: It's going to snow again today in Vermont. The good new: It won't amount to much.  

The snow we get today will be because the sniveling, drizzling, frizzling mess of a storm from yesterday is still dying to keep harassing us a little. 

The storm is now for to our east, but it's leaving a pool of frigid air high overhead as a parting gift.  

That pool of chilly air up there adds enough instability to the air to set off snow showers through today and into tonight. 

Most of us will see an inch or less. But the central and northern Green Mountains, along with many areas of the Northeast Kingdom, could collect two to five inches today. 

Today will also be cold, to put my Captain Obvious hat on again. It'll barely get into the low 30s in most of Vermont. Temperatures should stay below freezing in the far north, and upper 30s in the warmest valleys far south. 

Be careful under foot, too. As expected, all that slush from yesterday froze solid. And there were still a couple patches of freezing drizzle here and there to start the day.  The freezing drizzle will yield to the snow showers soon. Tis the season winter becomes like a guest who stays way too long. 

REST OF THE WEEK

Looking ahead, we have a bright side: The next in our series of storms coming in from the west looks like it will be mostly rain. Fingers crossed, anyway, as we've had some unpleasant surprises with the last two storms. 

Before we get there, Tuesday looks like the only day we'll have with no precipitation. With sunshine, it should get up to near 40.

A warm front will stir up some clouds Wednesday, and drop a few rain and/or snow showers, mainly north. 

It looks like the next storm coming by on Thursday might go to our north, which means mostly rain. But  forecasts issued this morning have it going barely to our north. If the outlook for the storm sinks its path  southward just a bit, we're looking at another snow north/rain south scenario.

Stay tuned on that one. 

Whatever happens with Thursday's storm, we get a very cold for the season blast of frigid air Friday into Sunday.  We'll stay below freezing all day Friday and probably Saturday, and overnight lows will be in the single numbers to low teens. That would be a solid 15 degrees or so colder than normal for this time of year. 

This being early spring, that cold won't last forever. Somewhat warmer air will start to come in next Sunday afternoon.

SEASONAL SNOWFALL

The snows of the past week or so have brought Burlington's snow total for the season to 79.4 inches. That's the most snow in seven years, but as you might imagine it's not all that much compared to some winters. 

If by some miracle we receive no more snow this season, this winter's snow would be in the middle of the pack. The current total of 79.4 inches would make this the 51st snowiest winter out of the past 124 seasons. 

More snow is inevitable (I mean, look at today's forecast, above), but we won't get to the total we did see seven years ago in the winter of 2018-19, when we had 103.6 inches. Well, at least I hope we don't see another two feet of snow or so this season, which would bring us to that level. 

I'll do another update on these stats several weeks from now when I'll be reasonably sure we're done with snowier the season. 

Baked Alaska: How That Frigid Northern State Not So Frigid This Winter, Compared To The Lower 48.

Not something you see very often: Water on top of ice
during a January thaw in normally frigid interior 
Alaska. Photo taken last week near Fairbanks. Photo
from National Weather Service office, Fairbanks. 

The Washington Post just had an interesting piece comparing the kind of January Alaska has had compared to the rest of us in the tropical Lower 48. 

Compared to Alaska, the Lower 48 ain't so tropical.  There's quite a role reversal going on. 

Anchorage, Alaska is having one of its warmest Januaries on record. With just a few days left in the month, the average temperature for January is 29.3 degrees, or a whopping 13 or so degrees warmer than normal.

Anchorage in January has been warmer than such cities as Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Louisville. 

We also had that famous snowstorm along the Gulf Coast earlier this month, which means New Orleans and Pensacola, Florida have had more snow this January than Anchorage. 

It's not just Anchorage. Fairbanks, in interior Alaska, is normally known as a forbidding icebox, where low temperatures often get into the 40s below zero and sometimes in the 50s to near 60 below. 

For only the second time on record, Fairbanks had a low temperature on a January day that was above freezing. (33 on January 25). On seven days this month,  the temperature in Fairbanks rose above 32 degrees. 

The normal high during January is 3 above zero and the normal low is about 15 below.  

Meanwhile, most of the Lower 48 has been unusually cold this January. That's especially true in the southeastern half of the United States. Though that region is having a mild spell in the closing days of this month, it will still be among the colder Januaries on record in much of the South.

The only regions of the Lower 48 that have been warmer than average are Maine, and large sections of Nevada, California, Oregon and Utah. 

REASONS AND OUTLOOK

The Alaska warmth is probably a mix between a fluke and climate change. A persistent northward bulge in the jet stream has kept Alaska on the mild side. A corresponding dip in the jet stream has pushed frigid air that's normally up in Alaska and northern Canada down into the United States. 

A marine heat wave, which is a zone of much warmer than normal ocean temperatures, has been ongoing in the Pacific from near Japan to the Gulf of Alaska. The marine heat wave is likely at least partly due to climate change and has probably been bolstering the Alaska balminess.

Plus, cold waves are in general less cold than they once were and hot spells are hotter in this age of climate change. That's likely a factor that has caused record heat in Alaska.  

The cold temperatures in the Lower 48 have broken few record lows, except near the Gulf Coast, where a previously unheard of snow cover combined with clear nighttime skies caused all time record lows as cold as 1 below zero not far from the Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana. 

(Editor's note: Yes, the Trump administration has renamed it Gulf of America, but international regulators, as well as the Associated Press style book still call it the Gulf of Mexico, so that's what we'll do here). 

The Alaska winter warmth is expected to mostly continue for awhile yet. The latest National Weather Service extended forecast out to two weeks calls for continued above normal temperatures in most of Alaska at least until a tad before Valentine's Day.  

For the Lower 48, the outlook is mixed, with variable conditions over the next two weeks. The northwestern United States is most likely to stay on the chilly side. 

Theses kinds of things do have a tendency to even out, usually. Although everything is skewed by climate change, I'm sure the Lower 48 will have its torrid hot spells in 2025 while Alaska will at least at times, revert back to its usual chilly vibe 

Vermont Cold Blast Still On. Forecasters Back Off On Snow, But COLD Tonight, Thursday Night

My perennial garden looking pretty good in the rain
this morning in St. Albans, Vermont after husband Jeff
removed debris from the tree that fell on it back on April 12.
We'll see how this garden weathers the hard freezes
due tonight and tomorrow night. 

 It was still pretty mild out there early this morning as our dreaded Arctic cold front still lurked a little to our north and west. 

I guess we should be happy that forecasters have backed off on snow chances this afternoon. 

Instead of accumulations almost statewide, most of any light snow cover should stay at or above 1,000 feet in elevation. It'll mostly be just rain just before and during the transition to cold. 

Snow flakes will still probably make it down into valley floors this afternoon as temperatures crash down through the 40s and into the 30s. Winter arrives today, for sure for a short stay, anyway. 

Of course, a difference of a couple degrees could surprise us with an unexpected burst of heavier snow, but that looks less likely now, 

THE FREEZE

The real story of course is the temperatures. It will be the chilliest night since March 25, when it was in the upper single numbers and teens across Vermont. It won't be that cold tonight, of course, but it will far below freezing across all of Vermont, except maybe right along the immediate shores of Lake Champlain. 

It won't be nearly as cold as it was in late March,   but now we have garden plants and shrubs blooming and budding. It'll be Friday before we know how things weathered the cold. 

Although forecasters have relaxed a little about snow chances today, the predictions have stayed very consistent for the cold tonight. 

The air coming in is super dry, which is common for bursts of air from Canada this time of year. That will allow the skies to clear out very fast this evening.  That, in turn, will let temperatures keep crashing downward. 

By dawn, it will be in the upper teens in the cold hollows, and between 21 and 27 degrees for the vast majority of us. 

HISTORICAL COMPARISON

On a historical basis, such temperatures this time of year are not super out of the ordinary for this time of year. It's been colder than what we're expecting tonight on several occasions this time of year. 

Interestingly, the coldest spell on record exactly mirrors what's happening now, but it won't turn out to be quite as bad.

The high and low temperature in Burlington exactly matched yesterday, April 23, 2024 and on April 23, 1919. The high and low temperatures on both days were 70/33.   Just like today, a very sharp cold front came through on April 24, 1919, dropping temperatures from 56 in the morning to 27 by midnight. 

But that 1919 Arctic blast was much worse than this one will be. The  low temperature on April 25, 1919 in Burlington was 20 degrees, and it only made it to 27 degrees that afternoon. Yes, the "high" was well below freezing. Then it got down to 20 again the next night, and only to 35 on the afternoon of the 26th. It also snowed a little both days. 

This time around, the low temperature forecast tomorrow morning in Burlington is around 25, and it should make it into the mid-40s by afternoon. 

The cold snap we're about to get is less intense but more fraught than in 1919 because of climate change. Gardens and plants in general are much further along now than they were at this time in 1919, setting us up for the chance of frost and freeze damage this time. 

Luckily, most major orchards are not blooming yet, just budding, so that might save some damage. Also, garden plants like daffodils and such are pretty tough. It will still be interesting to see how lilacs do this year after the upcoming freeze. Fingers crossed they'll be beautiful in May despite this expected freeze. 

NEXT UP

Thursday night will be a couple degrees warmer than tonight will be, but winds will be calmer than tonight. That sets the stage for more frost, which can be more damaging to plants than just a freeze with no frost. So we'll see how that goes.

By Friday afternoon, it'll pretty much be over as sunshine boosts us well into the 50s by afternoon. Friday night will be kind of cold again but not as bad as the previous two nights.

After that, the weather pattern will settle into one that's warmer but unsettled Saturday into next week. Highs will get well into the 60s to maybe low 70s during that period, but there will be frequent chances of showers.  

Heat In 1936 Vs Now: Yes, Middle America Was Hotter Then, But World Toastier Now

People sleep on the Statehouse Lawn in Lincoln,
Nebraska during July, 1936. During the intense heat,
when nobody had air conditioning, houses were 
too hot to sleep in. 

There's been so much in the news media, including in this here blog thingy, about the intense heat waves that have engulfed huge swaths of the northern hemisphere this summer. 

It's pretty clear that climate change has influenced most of these hot spells. Climate change hasn't necessarily caused them, but probably made them worse than they otherwise would be. 

The climate change denial camp uses a variety of tactics to dismiss climate change. The one that seems to be the go to method among the denialists this summer is whataboutism. 

Anytime somebody has a big heat wave, you're sure to hear, "Yeah, but what about the great heat of (insert your year here). 

 Never mind that all time record high temperatures have been set from China to Great Britain. And many other nations have seen these all time highs. 

A couple weeks ago,  temperatures in Great Britain reached 40C (104F) for the first in history.  The fossil fuel fans came back with, "What about 1976?"  Great Britain had a terrible heat wave that year that did last long than this year's but wasn't nearly as hot. So that failed.

The favorite whataboutism this year seems to be "What about 1936?" I've been hearing chatter lately from people who say this hot summer in the northern hemisphere is no big deal.

The denialists will tell you that the 1936 heat wave was worse.  The denial argument always has some truth, but always lacks context and explanation. 

It's very true that the 1936 heat wave in large swaths of the United States was much worse than anything we're experiencing this summer. Or any summer for that matter. 

Map compares summertime temperatures in
the 1930s vs. summertime temperatures in 
the 2010s.  Blue areas were hotter in the 
1930s, red areas were hotter in the 2010s.
Image from Twitter from climate 
scientist @AndrewDessler 

At present, 23 states still list their all time high temperatures as occurring in the 1930s, most of those in 1936. That was quite a summer, for sure. Way up near the Canadian border, North Dakota saw a whopping temperature of 121 degrees. Kansas also had an afternoon that hot. A town in Wisconsin hit 114 degrees.

But for the world as a whole, the summer of 1936 was much chillier than anything we're experiencing now. 

In fact, some corners of the United States were kind of chilly in the summer of 1936. Just for fun, I looked up the weather in the summer of 1936 here in Vermont. Not a warm summer. At all. 

The heat dome of 1936 was centered over the middle of the United States. We were northeast of that dome, which meant the Green Mountain State has a steady stream of cool air on a northwest flow from Canada. 

In June of that year, Burlington only went as high as 85 degrees for the entire month. On June 30, 1936, the early morning temperature in Burlington was 42 degrees, which still stands as the record low for that date. 

While much of the rest of the nation baked that July, Burlington could only muster a brief modest warm spell that peaked at 91 degrees on July 8.  During what is normally the hottest portion of July, the temperature failed to even reach 80 degrees for 13 straight days from July 13 through July 27. August was also on the cool side.

But that's just one corner of the world.' You can't just cherry pick one dot on the map. 

An analysis done recently compared the hottest temperatures across the globe in 1936 compared to the hottest months of the 2010s.

Areas shaded in blue on their map, which you can see in this post, are areas that were hotter in 1936 than the 2010s.  The only areas hotter in 1936 were the central United States, south central Canada, and very small areas of central Europe, eastern China and western Africa. 

Meanwhile, almost the entire world came in hotter in the 2010s than in 1936.

The 1936 U.S.heat wave was borne of man made factors that had nothing to do with climate change. It did hit the United States hard. 

As Matthew Cappucci wrote in the Washington Post last month:

"Years of land mismanagement and unsustainable farming techniques degraded topsoil, which killed native species of grass that trapped soil moisture. The result? Unshakeable drought and rolling dust storms that could travel hundreds of miles and turn day into night."

That lack of soil moisture meant the air didn't have much humidity in it either. Very dry air warms up much more quickly than humid air.  That meant that temperatures could really soar. 

Nowadays, land management is much better. Though, as we've seen this spring and summer, dust storms and wildfires are again raging across pretty good sized swaths of the Great Plains. 

However, there's more vegetation now. That adds humidity to the air. Humid air can't heat up as efficiently as dry air. You could argue, though, that current conditions are almost as uncomfortable as 1936. Temperatures are a little higher, but humidity is much higher. 

In Iowa, vast crop fields produce what's known as "corn sweat" that makes the air ultra humid. You can get days in Iowa with temperatures in the mid 90s and a dew point of around 80 degrees. That translates to a heat index of 115 degrees. Such dew points are usually limited to tropical areas. 

The Dust Bowl years are instructive for us now, in the age of climate change. Heat waves are coming closer and closer, and even occasionally exceeding the temperatures we saw back in the 1930s. Droughts are more common now, it seems, especially in the central and southern Plains. It could be just a matter of time when current generations experience the same thing their grandparents and great grandparents experienced 90 years ago.