Dog Days Of Summer Have Arrived In Vermont, Downpours Thrown In Sunday/Monday Too

A bumblebee enjoys a rose bloom this morning in 
St. Albans, Vermont amid our spell of humid air. Sticky
days will continue for at least a week along with
risks of showers and storms. 

It hasn't exactly been hot recently, but the air has felt rather sticky, here in Vermont and that state of affairs will continue for quite awhile. 

It's the dog days of summer, the nearly annual spell in which we're stuck in a long period of humid, warm air, with occasional spikes to a hot day or two mixed with rainy, thundery periods as well.

We're going to sweat it out in moderately warm air, and humidity that's moderately high until Sunday, when it will get even worse.Most of us will stay rain-fee under Sunday, when the weather forecast begins to turn iffy. Let's get into the details:   

TODAY

Partly sunny with that humidity is the bottom line.  Highs should get into the low 80s.

 noticed a couple showers early today in Addison and Rutland counties. That hints at enough instability in the air to trigger maybe an isolated shower or storm today mostly over the mountains. The vast majority of us will stay dry. though, and whatever does form shouldn't be scary. Just garden variety stuff.  

SATURDAY

Rinse and repeat. But it will be just a bit warmer as temperatures rise well into the 80s. 

SUNDAY

Here's where it gets questionable. South winds, which you'll especially notice in the Champlain Valley, will increase ahead of the next weather system. Those wind  will pump even more humid air our way, so Sunday will feel even more oppressive.

As it stands now, it looks like some showers and storms could develop in the afternoon and evening, especially in the northwestern half of the state. We still have questions on the timing and intensity of this thing, and those questions deepen Sunday night and Monday

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

It seems like the incoming front and weather disturbance will want to slow down near New England. We're pretty sure we'll see some heavy downpours around, but we don't know how long they'll last or just how heavy they'll be in any particular spot. 

The computer models have been windshield wipering between an ominous forecast of heavy rain lingering over the region for a long time, or downpours staying long enough to give us a harmless, beneficial soaking without a real risk of flooding. 

This morning's runs of computer forecast don't look all that ominous, but there's still a risk of locally heavy rain. And other model runs today might paint yet a different picture. 

In this morning's forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said they're hoping for  better, more concise guidance tomorrow on what might happen with this system. By then, well have better upper air sampling of how things are shaping. So stay tuned.  

BEYOND MONDAY

Whatever this system doesn't, it won't be one of those nice summer cold fronts that flush out the humidity for a few days. Instead it will stay warm, and probably get warmer. Temperatures might hold in the 70s amid steamy air Monday if there's a lot of clouds and rain. 

If we're lucky, it could briefly turn slightly less humid next Tuesday, but building warmth and humidity quickly return. It looks like a long stretch of very warm, humid weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through next week. 

Vermont Cool Spell Ends Long 80 Degree Spell; No Real Heat For Awhile

Midsummer flowers in St. Albans, Vermont this morning.
It's the peak of summer, but we're having an inverted
"January thaw."  That's a July cool spell that tells
us summer will eventually end. 

 We're in the midst of the summer version of the Vermont "January thaw."

Many years, often around the third week of January, we have a warm spell that tells us winter will eventually end. Not yet, it'll be awhile, but spring will come. 

Right now, we're in the July version of that  It happens during warmer summers, like this one has been so far. We get a cool spell in mid to late July.  It's an autumn-like sign that summer will eventually end. Not right away. There's plenty of summer left to go. But for now, there's hints of September. 

Saturday, the high temperature in Burlington reached only 72 degrees. That ended a streak of 21 consecutive days in which the temperature reached at least 80 degrees. The streak is the fourth longest 80 degree string on record in Burlington. 

We were supposed to get to 80 degrees or more yesterday, but a burst of warm, humid air had trouble making it as far as northern New England. That fact, and another burst of wildfire smoke, helped keep us cool.

The situation did rescue us from any severe weather. It all stayed well to our west and south. There's dozens of thunderstorm damage reports from western New York to North Carolina. 

Rainfall was mostly modest in Vermont, which is a bummer, since many of us could use the rain. 

REST OF TODAY

The cool weather continues today, though it is much nicer than it was Saturday.  The smoke is gone for now, and a pleasant northwest breeze is blowing. Today's the weekend day to enjoy. Our hints of autumn continuing. Highs will only top out in the 70s - gorgeous, but cool for the peak of summer. 

Tonight will probably be the coolest we've seen since the second week of June. That's not saying much. Most of us we'll get into the low and mid 50s, with some 40s in the colder hollows. Nothing unusual for July. 

THIS WEEK

Tomorrow will be another nice day, though some clouds will come in this afternoon. Highs will be seasonable, topping out within a few degrees either side of 80 degrees. 

The next storm system, coming through Tuesday through Wednesday, but it looks pretty tame. More tame that I thought a few days ago. Unless there's a major change in the outlook, it appears severe weather will stay well to Vermont's south and west.

Some earlier forecasts suggested the storm could slow down or stall near us, which would put us at risk for heavy rain or even flooding. Now, that idea looks highly doubtful. The warm fronts and cold fronts and troughs and lines of showers should wander through, not in a hurry, but not dawdling either. 

That means we might, if we're lucky, receive a decent amount of rain. 

It'll temporarily turn more humid during the rainy spell, but not wildly so. And it will turn drier again later in the week. Wildfire smoke is still lurking around central North America, but it's thinning somewhat. Rain has temporarily cooled the big Ontario wildfires a bit. Still, it might get a little smoky again midweek. 

After that, we don't see any signs of new heat waves for at least 10 days. It'll be warm enough, but not intensely so. Most of the heat will stay in the western and central United States.

But then there's August. Who knows whether we'll have more heat waves them. Stay tuned! 

Smoke Annoying Vermont, And Much Of Northern U.S. Storms/Rain Lurk In New England Too

A bit of another severe risk. Level 2 out of 5 risk of
damaging winds in the Northeast Kingdom and in
northern New Hampshire and half of Maine.
Northwest and central Vermont are at a level 1
out of  5 risk. This won't be as serious as the
destructive microbursts in south central
Vermont early yesterday morning. 

The smoke is back, especially in southern Vermont. Big wildfires in Ontario and northern Minnesota is causing most of the trouble. 

Smoke will be a problem for the rest of the summer, probably. Rain might tamp down the Ontario fires Friday and Friday night, and that might temporarily help. 

All this pollution makes the overall weather forecast a little harder, both for understanding when the smoke will be thickest and how that will affect overall weather. 

Later yesterday, the thick smoke got suppressed south to near the Massachusetts border and points south and west. Northern Vermont got a temporary break. 

TODAY

Unfortunately, satellite imagery was down this morning so I don't have a full picture of what's going on with the smoke. Just a general idea.

However, we know the smoke moved back north overnight, but it's still thickest in southern Vermont. An air quality alert is in effect until 11 p.m. tonight for all of Vermont except the far north. It's part of a broad air quality alert zone extending from Minnesota to Massachusetts. 

Another cold front is going to temporarily squash the smoke southward this afternoon. The cold front has already set off some needed showers in northwest Vermont, an area that could use some rain  Unfortunately, there is a risk of a few strong or even severe storms today. 

It's been a stormy summer. 

The weather set up is similar to Tuesday, when we were expecting a big outbreak of severe storms. The main difference is that it's much less humid than it was on Tuesday. So there's less potential fuel for storms

This time, the smoke is somewhat lighter in northern Vermont. Despite the lower humidity, the lack of smoke means there could be a few strong or borderline severe storms. Especially as a new cold front accompanied by a weather disturbance approaches us from Quebec.

This will not be a big storm outbreak.  Some of us won't see any showers or storms at all. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has much of Vermont under a marginal risk of severe storms, a level one out of five risk. 

The Northeast Kingdom, northern New Hampshire and southern Maine have a higher risk, a level two out of five alert level for severe storms. Far southern Vermont is outside the risk zone. 

Again, this won't be anything as serious as those destructive microbursts that hit towns like Shoreham, Whiting, the north end of Lake Bomoseen, Shrewsbury, Windsor and other spots late Tuesday and early Wednesday.  

Just keep an eye to the sky and get into a building if a storm is approaching. A couple spots could have some damaging wind gusts. The storms should be around early to mid afternoon north, and mid to late afternoon south. Though southern Vermont should see few if any showers and storms 

The good news is the cold front will temporarily disperse the smoke later today, especially north. 

FRIDAY

Should be a nice day. After a comfortable night tonight, we should have a sunshine, low humidity with highs in the70s to low 80s. It looks like we should still have some wildfire smoke hanging around. It's hard to say for sure, but current forecasts suggest the smoke might be worse south and west of Interstate 89.

WEEKEND

Saturday looks rather rainy. Which is good, as several places in Vermont have been cheated as thunderstorms have missed them this month. Northwest Vermont seems particularly dry. The first half of July in Burlington had 1.37 inches less rain than normal.  

You might be able to squeeze in some outdoor activity during the first half of Saturday, since the bulk of the rain should come through later in the afternoon and evening. Early forecasts call for an inch of rain in northern Vermont, with a little less than that across the south.  

It looks like Sunday will clear up in the afternoon. It also looks like it might be the coolest day we've had since maybe the third week in June. Highs should stay mainly in the 70s.

The weather pattern has changed. No promises, but it appears the second half of July might be cooler than the first half of the month. 

Strange, Sharp Line Between Rain and Clear Skies In Vermont This Morning, Another Hot Spell Looms

A tale of two Vermonts on this morning's satellite
photos. Thicker clouds in central Vermont denote
a band of moderate to briefly heavy rain. 
Meanwhile, northern Vermont is in the clear. 

 Another late start for my morning report as I'm just back from my trip to Maryland. 

Not long after I finally got my hutt out of bed,   I found quite a difference in the weather across Vermont. If you were in Rutland or White River Junction, it was chilly with a soaking rain around 9 a.m. Temperatures were only around 60 at 9 a.m.  

Drive a short distance north to Middlebury and the sun was partly out. By the time you got to Burlington, it was clear blue skies (aside from a slight hint of wildfire smoke) and it was a nice 74 degrees. 

The rain got a little further north than we thought it might yesterday.  That band of moderately heavy rain in central Vermont surprised me a bit. But at least it wasn't the flash-flood producing downpours that hit parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. 

REST OF TODAY

Here in Vermont, things should even out a little today, but it will take its time doing so. The north will stay generally sunny, while the rain in southern Vermont will slowly sink south into Massachusetts. It might take a good part of the day for the rain to finally end near the Massachusetts border.  

Because of the clouds in the south, northern Vermont will end up being the warm spot. It'll get into the low 80s there, while southern Vermont stays in the 70s. 

WEDNESDAY

Another hot spell arrives, but this one will be short and sweet - not as hot as the last go around, and it will only be a couple days' worth. Tomorrow will be sunny and in the upper 80s, with a few spot 90 degree temperatures here and there. 

The humidity will be noticeable, but not nearly as bad as it was a few days ago. Dew points should be in the low to mid 60s, not 70s. So it should be pretty tolerable if you take it slow.

THURSDAY

Another hot one, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms comes into play. Many of us in Vermont should make it to 90 or so. The dew point should get up into the low 70s, so it will feel miserable.  A cold front approaching from Canada should spark some afternoon and evening showers and storms. It's a little early to figure out whether any storms will be strong or severe, but the possibility is there. Stay tuned!

FRIDAY

The cold front continues to stagger through Vermont. Early guesses suggest the morning could be rainy, but we could salvage a decent afternoon if it comes through quickly enough. Especially north. We are't expected all that much rain from this, except in local torrential downpours. 

NEXT WEEKEND:

Potentially very nice after the cold front. It will stay warm with highs in the 80s, but with lower humidity. There's a bunch of wildfires burning in central and northern Canada which means we could see some smoke. 

I'll have a fuller report on a potentially smoky rest of the summer, hopefully later today. 

Ahhhhh! A Cool Vermont Morning To Be Followed By More Hot Weather

An approaching thunderstorm loomed over Frederick,
Maryland late Saturday afternoon. It dropped the 
temperature there from 102 to 77 within an hour,
Meanwhile, Vermont is enjoying some pleasant
low humidity now that the heat wave is over. 

Sorry for the late morning report. Still in Frederick, Maryland visiting and having a great time, which of course disrupts these reports. Oh well, no biggie.  

Yesterday, I endured my third day in a row of 102 degree temperatures.  No extended periods outside. We just hopped quickly from one air conditioned place to another. 

By yesterday afternoon, all lawns had been scorched brown by the blast furnace heat.  Day lilies had all wilted. Any hostas exposed to any sun burned to a crisp. 

We finally had relief late in the afternoon with a strong thunderstorm that dropped the temperature from 102 to 77 within an  hour. Frederick is expecting a high today of 93 degrees, which is better, I guess.

 So I was jealous when I saw that temperatures across Vermont fell into the 50s early this morning. There were even a few upper 40s in the cold spots.  Dew points, that measure of how humid it is, fell into the low 50s late yesterday and last night for most of us. That's even drier air than we were expecting just a couple days ago.

Also, a lot of that smoke that was expected dissipated over southern Quebec, so the smoke attack Vermont was expecting was something of a nothing burger. There's still hints of smoke and haze in the atmosphere today, but it's not bad at all.

TODAY

In Vermont, the weather is not staying cool for long. But at least it won't be as oppressively humid and hot as it was a few days ago. Under the sunshine today, highs will end up in the 80s.  The steamy air is gone for now, so it's another that should make it illegal to stay indoors. 

MONDAY

Holiday weekend is over, so it's back to work.  A weak but hellish little storm along a stalled cold front is unleashing flash floods on parts of the Mid-Atlantic States today and tomorrow. This thing will bulge moisture northward into Vermont, increasing the clouds and creating a rising risk of showers late in the south. 

TUESDAY

Our aforementioned storm will do its work in Vermont Tuesday, but don't worry: No flash floods. There's some questions over exactly how far this thing will come north. The further north it gets, the more rain everyone receives and the heavier it will be.

For now, it looks like a nice half to three quarter inch soaking in far souther Vermont, maybe a tenth to a quarter inch in central Vermont and sprinkles at best north of Route 2. Again, subject to change. The clouds and showers will hold temperatures down Tuesday: Low to mid 70s south, 77 to 82 north.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY

Hotter again, and somewhat more humid. So yup, uncomfortable again. Highs will get into the 80s to near 90.  Showers and thunderstorms should start to creep in later Thursday. 

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: 

A cold front should spread showers and thunderstorms our way. It's way too soon to figure out how many showers and storms and whether they wold be.

LONG RANGE:

The weather pattern is shifting so that a persistent heat dome will set up over the West. That suggests that in the second and third weeks of July might well mean that New England will be the coolest place in the Lower 48. 

Not cold, mind you, just not hot. NOAA's forecast out to 14 days has the Northeast with near near normal temperatures while most of the rest of the U.S. trends hot.  

Soaking Rains To Hit Southern Vermont Later Today, Tonight. Only A Little Rain North. We Think

 A brief thunderstorms interrupts a day at the dog park
in St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday

 People in northern and central Vermont woke up to mostly clear skies for a change today, after so much rain has fallen in recent days. 

It was already clouding up in anticipation of more rain across southern Vermont. More on that in a minute. 

Sunday, in its own way, was a rather pretty day. Sure. many of us had to dash indoors when the showers an thunderstorms blew through. But the towering thunderstorm clouds and the big fluffy towering cumulus made the sky pretty. 

But, like I said it's going to rain again. Here are the details

MONDAY

The best thing about the upcoming bout of rain is it's mostly going to hit southern Vermont, where they actually kind of need it. Far northern Vermont, which is absolutely saturated at the moment. 

The latest rainfall prediction map from the National 
Weather Service. More than an inch of rain is 
expected by tomorrow morning in southern Vermont,
while far northern Vermont gets very little. 

Southern Vermont really is in for a soaker. Most people from Rutland and Windsor counties south should get more than an inch of rain. Some places will see 1.5 inches, or maybe even close in on two inches in one or two isolated spots in the far southern Green Mountains.

Because it will be a steady drenching rain and not sharp downpours, flooding won't happen. Instead, the water will soak into the relatively dry ground. 

Central Vermont should only get a quarter to a half inch of rain.  Far northern Vermont gets a break from the incessant rain. Those areas should see less than a tenth of an inch. 

There is still a chance the weather system could go a little north of the planned path or a little south. This would change rainfall amounts up or down. The forecast is tricky because there will be a sharp line between heavy rain south and very little north. 

This should mostly come through between late this afternoon and very early tomorrow morning. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

A mostly dry spell for a change. Hallelujah! There might be some widely scattered showers Tuesday afternoon in the north, especially in the mountains, but they shouldn't amount to much. Wednesday actually looks sunny with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 80. So nice early summer weather there. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

It looks like another system will roll with more showers and thunderstorms. An early peek suggest the heaviest rain might fall in the north again. It's still too soon to tell whether this will represent any kind of flood threat or not. 

Likely Woodstock, Vermont Tornado To Be Investigated Today, More Inclement, But Not Violent Weather Due

Trees ripped apart on a Woodstock, Vermont hillside
after a likely tornado hit on Thursday. 
Photo from WCAX via Facebook

 Thanks to the fact that everyone has a camera and local TV stations are pretty aggressive when it comes to covering rare, violent weather in Vermont, we're now pretty confident that whatever hit Woodstock, Vermont yesterday was probably a tornado. 

Drone video from Henry's Weather Service shows trees snapped off halfway up, and many other trees felled in varying directions, which are telltale signs of a tornado. 

Video obtained from Tiffany LaRocque taken from inside Mountain Creamery in Woodstock shows intense winds and rain on the edge of the tornado. Trees were falling and the parking lot was full of vehicles as people traveling along Route 4 took refuge there as driving conditions became impossible. 

About 100 people were affected by the probably tornado on the western side of town, WPTZ reports. Thankfully, we have no reports of injuries, which is pleasantly surprising, given how much traffic there usually is on Route 4 where the probably tornado crossed. 

The tornado missed the historic central village of Woodstock, which is a world-renowned tourist hub. Initial reports indicate only minor tree damage in the village center. 

Reports are that National Weather Service meteorologists from South Burlington will head to Woodstock, probably today, to confirm whether this was a tornado.  If that analysis happens, we'll learn how strong the tornado was and how long and wide the path was.

Judging from the drone video, the path of the tornado looked a little longer than most Vermont tornadoes. Twisters in the Green Mountain State tend to touch down and lift almost immediately. 

I'm not sure on the strength of the tornado, but judging from photos and that drone video, I'd say it was an EF-1, which would mean winds of 86 to 110 mph. 

Once the National Weather Service offers a report on the Woodstock storm, I'll write up a new post with the updates.

Heading east from Woodstock, there was additional severe damage. In Quechee, Vermont, a row of large willow trees on a golf course fell. They all went down in the same direction, suggesting straight line wind damage. 

There was also extensive damage in Hartford, Vermont, where a lot of trees fell. 

Nearly 4,000 Vermont homes and businesses were still without power this morning, mostly in southeastern Vermont. Londonderry had 1,100 of those outages, suggesting something nasty rolled through that town yesterday. 

This morning, other trouble spots popped up in northern Vermont, near the Canadian border. The Barton River at Coventry and the Missisquoi river near North Troy were at minor flood stage. Heavy rains yesterday fell atop soils soaked by very heavy rains that hit up there on Sunday. 

We had reports of a lot of street flooding Thursday in Newport and Middlebury. Probably other towns experienced that, too. 

Rainfall was quite heavy in many spots. Burlington had 1.11 inches of rain. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 1.54 inches. A full report on how much rain fell in specific towns will become available later this morning. 

WHAT'S AHEAD?

Thankfully, we're done with the violent weather at least for awhile, but conditions will be unsettled and wet at times. Northern Vermont in particular is in for some showery weather this weekend. 

The out of season, strong low pressure system that gave Vermont the rough weather yesterday is meandering through Quebec. It's rotating little disturbances through here and will continue to do so through the weekend. 

That means frequent bursts of rain,  especially north. Total rainfall through Sunday night will be near an inch over the northern Green Mountains. In most valley towns north of Route 2,  a half to three quarters of an inch will come down between now and Monday morning.   

The rainfall will taper to a quarter inch in central Vermont and less than a tenth of an inch in far southeast Vermont. A  few garden variety thunderstorms and downpours will probably mix in, so a few towns will get more rain than the rest of Vermont as a result. 

A few daily details: 

Today

Mostly cloudy and breezy with west to southwest winds gusting to 25 or 20 mph. Most of the afternoon showers and garden variety thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be north of Route 2, but some will drift into central Vermont by very late afternoon or the first half of tonight. A few storms might have briefly heavy downpours, but not enough to cause any flooding or anything like that. 

Highs should reach the low and mid 70s in most valleys

Saturday

Probably the worst day of the bunch. Northern areas will see very little sun and frequent showers. Southern valleys will see some sun, but also a risk of a shower. It will be quite cool for the season with highs in the 60s north, with low to mid 70s southern valley floors. 

Hikers should be aware that summits will be wet and cold tomorrow with wind chills in the 40s. If you insist on hiking, it won't be a summertime activity. Dress accordingly. 

Sunday

More showers and garden variety thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low 70s, give or take. 

 

A Dry And Warm Vermont Midweek, But Does Another Wet Weekend Loom?

These irises in St. Albans, Vermont are definitely 
enjoying this week's sunshine. 

 Boy, yesterday was another great June day, wasn't it? Sunny and warm, with just some high clouds decorating the skies. 

Tuesday did get off to a chilly start. A lot of places were in the 30s early Monday morning, so there might have been some frost in the coldest hollows of Vermont. 

No biggie, that happens the Green Mountain State often in early June. 

Today, we started off cool again, in the 40s. That was fading fast as temperatures soar to within a few degrees either side of 80 today. I think most valleys should reach at least 80 today os it's definitely warm. 

Thursday. 

Even warmers, as temperature soar well into the 80s. In fact, most of us will be within a few degrees of record highs for the date. For instance, Burlington is going for a high of 89 degrees, and the record high there is 92 degrees. Montpelier expects a high of 86 Thursday, and their record high is 87. 

But it won't be really humid, so it will still be a nice today. 

Friday. 

Similar to Thursday but maybe a degree or two cooler because some clouds should arrive in the afternoon. We should all be in the 80s. The humidity will creep up a little, but still be pretty reasonable. 

Weekend

It's the weekend, so the rule is, it has to rain. 

It's a few days away, so the specifics still have to be worked out. It does look like a slow moving cold front will sink southward into and eventually through Vermont. By Saturday, it could be pretty humid. It doesn't look like the atmosphere will be right for severe thunderstorms, but there could be some heavy downpours. 

By Sunday, it will probably be noticeably cooler under the showery clouds and behind the cold front. But "cooler" won't be the same as what we endured in our chilly May. Instead of 50s and low 60s for highs, we're tentatively looking at low to mid 70s. 

Remember, the forecast is subject to change. If you don't like rainy weekends, you never know. The weather could change it could turn sunnier. But right now, I'm not super optimistic.

The overall weather pattern is still a warm one, so I expect some more days in the 80s next week. 

 

Cold Storm Departs. Much Weaker Cold Storm Arrives Today But Summer Is Around The Corner!

Yes, that was snow gleaming at the summit of Mount
Mansfield, Vermont Saturday after a cold storm blew through

That storm yesterday really left its mark on New England with mountain snows and wind and rain and chilly temperatures reminiscent of March in some places. 

Here in Vermont, the weather got nice, if chilly. The afternoon sky lit up blue, with patchy, cold-looking stratocumulus clouds. 

The tippy top of Mount Mansfield gleamed white with new snow. Yes, on May 30. Nice contrast between the green slopes just below the snow. 

The weather wasn't so nice in so nice in eastern New England. The storm evolved into a nor'easter,, with many communities in eastern Massachusetts never getting above 50 degrees and wind gusts exceeding 50 mph. Hull, Massachusetts reached 60 mph. 

Adding to the drama, a meteor exploded over Cape Cod Bay somewhere between Boston and Provincetown Saturday afternoon, creating a loud boom and some shaking

Back here in Vermont, rainfall was more generous than predicted. Most places north and east of Interstate 89 had more than an inch of rain. Many towns in that wet region has more than 1.5 inches of rain. The town of Morgan was drenched with .2.19 inches of rain. Westfield had 1.9 inches.  

More rain is in the forecast, but nothing like we saw Friday night and early Saturday. 

TODAY

Skies clouded up overnight, preventing temperatures from getting cold enough for a frost. The clouds are from the next batch of showers and cold air aloft diving down through Quebec toward us. 

Unlike in eastern New England, skies cleared during the
late morning to reveal a delightfully sunny, breezy, 
cool afternoon to enjoy the outdoors,

This one is much weaker than the small-sized but big powerhouse we dealt with Friday night. So we'll see much less rain.  

Most places will only see 0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain, so this is only a slight wetting compared to what we saw Friday night. 

A few places will get a little more, because there's a chance a thunderstorm or two could be embedded within the mess of showers heading our way. 

If some thunderstorms get going, a few might  have pea sized hail since the air high above us is so cold. 

As far as timing goes, we already had a few light showers going on north as of 9 a.m. There will be a rising chance of showers north, spreading south through the day. The greatest chances of getting wet will probably is between 4 and 8 p.m., but of course there's chances of rain before and after those hours. 

Since its a cold system, it'll be cool for the season again today with highs in the 60s.

REST OF THE WEEK

We will slowly emerge from this cool spell and welcome back early summer.  Some potential complications that would keep us chilly longer are starting to seem less and less likely. 

Monday will probably start off cloudy, but clear up as temperatures rise only into the 60s, with maybe a spot 70 in warmer valleys far south and upper 50s in hilly terrain north. That's still a little cool as we start off June, but it's nothing incredible. 

The rest of the week looks pretty sunny and really nice. Highs should be near 70 Tuesday, well into the 70s Wednesday and probably into the 80s by Thursday. 

Cold fronts coming along toward next weekend look like they'll lack the oomph of the ones we saw in May, So generally warm weather will get June off to a great start, 

Actually It's Going To Be TWO Rainy, Chilly Spells In Vermont. The First One Tonight Is The Snowy One

The blooming irises and budding peonies in low elevation
St. Albans, Vermont certainly don't have to worry about
snow tonight, but Vermont's mountain summits could
well be white by Saturday morning. 

We're still on for our weird, cold storm tonight, but different parts of Vermont will have very different weather conditions. 

Here's the latest updates:

SNOW

Forecasters have actually lowered the elevations at which they expect snow to fall tonight. They now expect snow as low as 3,000 feet above sea level, taking the flakes pretty far below summits. 

This won't be a big summit snowstorm by any means, but places near 3,000 feet or a little higher could get a slushy coating to a half inch of snow. Summits might see 1 to 2 inches, maybe more if there are any cold surprises. 

In eastern Vermont especially, the National Weather Service says a few flakes could fall at elevations as low as 2,000 or 2,500 feet, though no snow will accumulate at such a low elevation. 

Keep all this in mind if you have a big Saturday morning hike planned. Either postpone it or dress for a winter hike, your choice. 

RAIN

The cold, small but intense bowling ball of a storm that has blasted down from the Arctic Circle and was making its way southward through Quebec toward New England this morning. The direction of the storm is odd enough, most of them come from the west or south, not from the Great White North. 

When storms do come from the north or northwest, they tend to be pretty dry affairs, with light precipitation. There's no warm ocean up that way to add a lot of moisture to the atmosphere. But this storm is so dynamic that it's able to squeeze every bit of moisture it can out of the air. 

The Northeast Kingdom, along with northern New Hampshire and western Maine, can expect more than an inch of rain between this afternoon and noon Saturday. The area around New Hampshire's White Mountains could receive two inches of rain. That will probably translate to a LOT of snow atop Mount Washington, which is New England's highest peak.

Rainfall amounts will fall sharply as you move away from the Northeast Kingdom. Places a little north and east of Interstate 89 can expect up to three quarters of an inch.  The Champlain Valley would get a half inch north up near St. Albans and Alburgh, tapering to a quarter inch south of Burlington. 

Southern Vermont only gets a tenth of an inch out of this. 

TIMING

Light showers were already scattered around northern New York and Vermont as of 9 a.m. The showers will start to increase in intensity and number north later this morning or early afternoon and spread south and east. There could be a rumble of thunder because the storm is so dynamic. Once the rain arrives, temperatures will fall rapidly from the 60s through the 50s. Tonight's lows will be between 38 and 45, except low 30s above 3,000 feet.

SATURDAY

The rain should taper off pretty early in the day.  The morning should feel pretty chilly and blustery, but the sun should come out in most areas during the afternoon. That'll boost temperatures into the 55 to 65 degree range, depending on whether you are fairly high up in elevation north or a low elevation south. That's pretty cool for this time of year, but it's actually pretty nice for outdoor activities. 

SUNDAY

Part of the day will be nice. By early afternoon, most of us should see temperatures within a few degrees either side of 70. But the next cool storm from the north will start to arrive in the afternoon with its batch of showers. 

This cool batch of rain isn't as cold or as intense as the one we're getting tonight. So it shouldn't snow in the mountains and rain in the Northeast Kingdom will be lighter than tonight's go around. 

BEYOND SUNDAY

We'll have trouble getting rid of this weather pattern, so it will be relatively cool and showery at least through Tuesday. But it could last until the end of the week, depending on which weather model you believe. Stay tuned! 

Quick Shot Of Summer To Be Followed By Weekend Chill

Lilacs in the foreground, lilacs in the background on this
sunny, warm late May morning in Vermont. But some
"interesting" weather could arrive this weekend. 

It was definitely a soaker of a Memorial Day weekend in Vermont, with virtually everyone receiving at least three quarters of an inch of rain and most places going over an inch. 

The heaviest rain seemed to be in central Vermont, where two day totals included 1.8 inches in Hinesburg, 1.76 inches in Vergennes 1.71 inches in West Bridgewater and 1.68 inches in Warren. 

Also, the last of the snow melted atop Mount Mansfield over the weekend. There was no measurable snow up there for the first time since October 26.  

That's one of the longest "winters" Mount Mansfield has had. But is the snow really done for the season up there on Vermont's highest peak? Read on to find out. 

The clouds were frustratingly slow to move out yesterday afternoon, especially in  northern Vermont. But they finally did toward evening, giving us a short shot at summer for the next couple of days before annoyingly chilly weather returns. Things could get pretty interesting by this weekend. 

Here's how this will play out

TODAY

A squirt of very warm air has moved in from the west. Forecasters have bumped up expected temperatures today so it's going to actually feel kind of hot. Warmer valley floors should get into the mid-80s. Humidity levels should be reasonable, though, and there will be a nice southwest breeze.

WEDNESDAY

Yesterday, I told you about that Omega block setting up around the nation. This thing will make Vermont turn cool, and very cool by the weekend. Before we get there though, the first of a series of cold fronts will have come through by tomorrow, but it won't make too much of a difference. 

It should still get well into the 70s, with some low 80s in broader valleys, including the Champlain Valley. We'll call the skies partly sunny.

THURSDAY

Upper air weather forecast map for Friday night. Click on
image to make it bigger and easier to see. It shows an
upper level, cold low over us. Those blue lines indicate
that it could be cold enough to snow on mountain peaks.

Here's where we begin to feel the north winds. It'll still be sunny, but highs will only reach the 60s, with some low 70s south. That's actually a couple degrees cooler than average for this time of year. But still very nice. Then the fun begins.

FRIDAY

A pocket of very cold air, which looks like a bowling ball on weather maps, will race down from Hudson Bay and score a strike on us here in Vermont starting during the day Friday. It'll be overhead Friday evening into Saturday. 

Given that this is coming straight from dry northern Canada, you'd think there wouldn't be much weather coming out of this. But the dynamics in this "bowling ball" look like they'll be strong, so lots of showers will break out starting Friday afternoon and into Saturday. 

This is really cold air aloft for this time of year. Early guesses are that the snow level Friday night and Saturday morning could fall to 4,000 feet. So,  yes, it would snow on Mount Mansfield if this forecast is correct.

Even if it does't snow, it will be very cold and wet and windy in the mountains, so you might want to postpone your weekend hiking plans. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Sunday looks chilly and showery, too, but probably not as bad as Saturday. After that, a slow warming trend should take hold next week, but it will probably remain cooler than average for at least the first half of the week. 

Soaking Memorial Day Morning Vermont Rain To Yield To Some Sunshine, Finally! "Omega Block" Looms

National Weather Service radar showed lots of soaking
rain across Vermont as of 8 a.m today. But if you have
Memorial Day plans, the rain should exit by late
morning to yield a partly sunny afternoon

As expected, Sunday was a chilly, rainy mess of a day. There were a couple bright spots in the gloom.

Winds were not as strong as expected near the mountains, so there were no power outages to speak of. In western Vermont, the rain tapered off as expected in the late afternoon, so you could sneak in some outdoor activities. 

Most places around the state had roughly a third of an inch of rain, give or take. That was what was forecast south, but it amounted to a little more than expected north. Good for the gardens, so another bonus there. 

Another heavier slug of rain was moving through Vermont early this morning. This rain seemed to be over-performing a little, too. 

Burlington was closing in on an inch of rain today from this morning's disturbance. Forecasts had called for a half inch. We'll see how the rest of Vermont does once this rain is out of our hair. 

The good news is this morning's rain does not mean we will have another entire gray, overcast day to deal with. 

The rain was beginning to end in western Vermont as of around 8:30 a.m. and should be out of eastern Vermont before noon. This afternoon, skies will turn at least partly sunny, and that should send temperature up into the comfortable low 70s, which is more or less normal for this time of year. 

REST OF WEEK

A schematic from Fox Weather showing what an 
Omega block looks like on a weather map. It features
 a northward bulge in the jet stream featuring warm,
sunny weather sandwiched between cooler
somewhat wetter southward dips in the jet stream.

Something called an Omega block in organizing itself in the atmosphere.  That's when a big northward bulge in the jet stream is flanked on either side by deep dips in said jet stream.  It's called an Omega block because the set up on a weather map resembles the Greek letter Omega. 

They're called a block because these patterns gum up the works so that the general weather stays the same wherever you are in the whole setup. 

Omega blocks are hard to dislodge, so they can last for days or even weeks. 

In this case, the big northward bulge will be in the middle of the U.S and central  Canada. Those areas will  have sunny and warn weather. The "dip people" in the northwest and northeast U.S. will be cooler and more unsettled. 

The Omega block is just starting to set up, so the change toward cooler weather around here will be gradual as the dip sends a series of weak cold fronts southward.  Here's how we think it will play out in Vermont

Tuesday: A summer day. The last one we'll have for awhile. Under sunny skies it should reach the low 80s. Some clouds might filter in during the afternoon, especially north, but that shouldn't make much of a difference in what a nice day it will be.

Wednesday: Still very nice, but winds will have shifted into the northwest, so the cooling will just be beginning. Highs should still make it into the 70s.

Thursday: Cooler  yet under partly sunny skies. Highs in the 60s, so now we're into somewhat chillier than average territory. 

Friday/Weekend: By this time, the coldest air aloft will have arrived. That means the strong end of May sun will heat the ground, which creates rapid updrafts into the cold air above. That means showers. It's a little soon to figure out how many showers and who gets the most of it. Best chances for rain will be north nd mountains. 

Depending on how cloudy it gets, it could get quite chilly down here near the surface. If we manage a fair amount of sun, we could get into the low 60s, still nippy for this time of year. If it's cloudier, we hold in the 50s, which is getting weird for this time of year. 

As noted, Omega blocks don't break down easily once they form. Which means we could be stuck with this cool, unsettled weather perhaps through the first week of June. Stay tuned on that one. 

Roller Coaster: Rainy, Cold Vermont Day In Progress, More Rain Tomorrow Morning, Then Warm, Then Eventually Chilly.

A huge lilac tree in front my house brightens a gloomy
May Sunday in St Albans, Vermont. 

 I'm getting a very late start this Sunday morning, as I decided to really sleep in on a chilly, rainy morning. 

That state of affairs will continue the rest of the day, though it will be a light, occasional rain, and it should turn more showery later in the day. 

Earlier last week, I'd hoped high pressure to our northeast would steer the rain away from us. So much for that idea. But we could still use the rain, despite the drought being over for now. 

But a miserable day for late May is still in progress. Damp and chilly is the word. If you like gloomy late March weather, today is your lucky day. Temperatures in the 40s to around 50 will only go up a couple of degrees by this afternoon. The winds will turn fairly gusty in most areas, adding to the chill.

Most places should have gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range, but spots along the western slopes of the Green Mountains could see it go up to 45 mph.  This would be the first good windy day since the trees leafed out. Leaves are heavy, at least when you're weighting the thousands of them on a single tree.

The new leaves combined with the wind and rain could knock over a few trees. I expect there might be some widely scattered power outages. Nothing widespread or wild, but don't be surprises if your lights flicker if you're on those western slopes. 

Despite the nearly day-long dreariness, we won't actually get much more rain today. Through 9 a.m. most of Vermont had received a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. We'll get another tenth to a quarter inch by the time it gets dark this evening. 

MEMORIAL DAY

Unfortunately, the day will get off to a rough start. The way it looks now, rain will restart before dawn and continue through most of the morning. The rain will be heavier than today's,  amounting to at least a quarter to half inch. Statewide, we now expect storm totals to be somewhere near three quarters of an inch, give or take. So a decent soaking. 

It still looks like the rain will shut off nicely tomorrow afternoon, with some sun breaking out by late in the day. High temperatures will be much better than today, probably reaching a seasonal 70 degrees or so.

THE WEEK AHEAD

After a summer-like Tuesday, in which we'll flirt with 80 degrees, we'll have a slow cooling trend through the week, as an unusual weather pattern sets up. By next weekend, it could well be quite chilly for the season once again. 

It's a little unclear how cool it will get, but I'll more on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

Chilly And Rainy In Vermont Again Today, But Big Changes Are On Their Way

My "pink tree" as a call it, bloomed out this week despite
relatively cool weather. This tree was just about dead
when I bought the property nearly 20 years ago, 
but I managed to save it and I've gotten it to thrive. 

We endured another nippy May day on Wednesday, with the afternoon arguably being the coldest of the month. 

Light rainfall held temperatures in the 40s until evening, when the rain temporarily ended and parts of Vermont made it into the low 50s. 

That's still ten to 15 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Even the fleece I was wearing yesterday didn't seem warm enough. Shiver me timbers indeed!

Not far upstream in New York yesterday, though, things were different. Watertown and Fort Drum were at 61 degrees at 3 p.m. The air was warm an humid enough to trigger a few severe thunderstorms in western New York.

There was even a tornado warning for northwestern New York. I don't have any word on whether anything touched down, but if it did, it would have been not far from Pulaski, New York. That's an area south of Watertown that is much more famous for epic lake effect blizzards than it is for tornadoes. 

Our (sort of) proximity to severe weather and warmer temperatures is a sign that our cool weather will end soon. 

On the bright side, this morning was much warmer than in recent days. As a gray, rainy dawn broke, temperatures across Vermont were within a few degrees either side of 50.  That makes it probably the warmest morning since May 

Clouds and rain,  however, will give us one more cool day. But that's OK, we need the rain. Vermont got about a tenth of an inch of rain yesterday, give or take, so we still need a good soaking. Meanwhile, the warm weather that's been knocking on our door will finally begin to make its move into Vermont tomorrow. 

Here are the details. 

TODAY

The upper level low that was in New York yesterday has settled down to our south a bit, and is trying to funnel a band of deep Atlantic moisture into New England. Vermont is sort of near the western edge of that moisture, but we should still get a good soaking. 

If you're in the western Adirondacks or St. Lawrence Valley of New York, you're out of luck for rain today. You'll only get a little. But you guys got more rain than Vermont yesterday, so let's call it even. 

For Vermont, most areas should have a storm total of at least an inch of rain. That includes rain from yesterday and last night and whatever falls today through early Friday. 

The wild card is western Vermont. One decent slug of rain went through all of the state, including the Champlain Valley early this morning. Will the rest of the rain hit that area? This morning's forecast seems to say yes. Maybe places like Burlington and St. Albans will get slightly less rain than the rest of Vermont, but still get a little under an inch total.

But, if the moisture feed shifts just a tiny bit east, far western Vermont could get cheated. As of this morning,  the forecast seems to suggest after a bit of a morning lull, western Vermont will still share in the bounty of the rain. Fingers crossed. But if the rain doesn't materialize, now you'll know why. 

The big winner for Vermont in this storm looks like it will be southeastern Vermont. The U.S. Drought Monitor still has drought conditions in the lower Connecticut Valley, and New Hampshire, and western Maine. 

In fact in Vermont, this week's U.S. Drought Monitor, hot off the presses at 8:30 this morning, shows the drought expanded across a much larger portion of southern Vermont since last week. Drought now covers all an area from the Green Mountains east below White River Junction. 

Those drought areas should get the most rain today and tonight. We're talking a good inch or inch and a half, with locally higher amounts. 

So in a sense, this is a perfect storm. Not the violent, scary, deadly Perfect Storm of 1991, obviously. But a perfect storm of drought-denting rains, which should make everyone happy. 

The only unhappy aspect of the day will be the temperatures. The rain and clouds will hold us down in the mid and upper 50s. Normal highs this year should be between 65 and 70 degrees. 

FRIDAY

This will be our transition day toward what I call "pre-summer." During pre-summer, which usually goes from late May to mid-June, most days are pretty warm, in the 70s. You still get some nasty cool days that hold in the 50s, but other days are full-on summer with temperatures getting into the 80s or even to 90.

That's what we have coming up. 

Tomorrow might still be a wee bit on the cool side for this time of year. Early showers will give way to clouds, then some afternoon clearing. Instability in the air might allow Ma Nature to sneak in a scattered afternoon shower, but those should be few and far between. And those temperatures will get into the reasonable 60s. It'll be the hottest day since this past Sunday, and that's only the beginning.

WEEKEND

Ah! Pre-summer arrives full on. Under sunny skies, temperatures should soar way up into the 70s on Saturday. A weak disturbance might bring us a few scattered hit and miss showers Sunday morning, but it won't be anything widespread. The disturbance will probably knock temperatures back down to near 70 north Sunday, but southern parts of the state should still get well into the 70s. 

EARLY WEEK

It looks like we'll get a brief burst of full summer weather. It should get into the 70s Monday under sunny skies. That will be a great opportunity to install your window air conditioner. The reason for that is Tuesday. Unless something goes completely wrong with the forecast, it looks like Tuesday's highs could soar well into the 80s. And the humidity might creep up a tad.

We're not used to 80 degree weather, says Captain Obvious. The last time it was in the 80s in Vermont was during a record-breaking heat wave on October 5-7, 2025.

A cold front should arrive later Tuesday and Wednesday, which would knock temperatures back down tot the 60s and low 70s later next week. That's a long range forecast of course, so take it with a giant hunk of rock salt. 

 

 

Unexpected Clouds Rescued Most Of Vermont/North Country From A Nasty Freeze

The sky looked chilly over St. Albans yesterday, leading
to forecasts of freezes and frosts. It did get cold last
night, but it was a couple degrees warmer than 
forecasts, so no hard freezes. That was good
for vulnerable plants and crops.

For the most part, it didn't get quite as cold in most of Vermont overnight, thanks mostly to some unexpected clouds that covered the skies over northern parts of the state early this morning. 

Clouds tend to hold in heat, so it ended up a few degrees warmer than it otherwise would have been.

Under clearer skies, Bennington did manage to get to at least 31 degrees, and Rutland was at 32.  

Most of northern Vermont away from the Champlain Valley were also in the low 30s, so there was at least light frost around. But we had no hard freezes except in the coldest hollows where the growing season hasn't really started anyway. 

The Champlain Valley remained mostly frost free, though Middlebury. a little south of that cloud cover, did manage to touch 32 degree.  It looks like Burlington bottomed out at a reasonable 39 degrees. which won't even be the coldest night this month. It was 37 degrees on May 8.

Until recent years, it would almost always get below freezing in Burlington during May. That has changed with climate change intensifying. Since 2011, May temperatures in Burlington have touched 32 degrees on only three occasions. 

Judging from weather forecasts, Burlington will not see any freezing temperatures this May, either. 

FORECAST

The good news is it's going to get wet. We actually need the rain. And eventually, it's going to get warmer. 

Today

The clouds in the north should at least partly clear out today.  If it all works out, we'll end up with a classic cool May afternoon. Sun will mix with clouds and highs will only reach the 50s, which is a good ten degrees cooler than average. 

With such a cool days in store, you'd think we'd be in for another frost and freeze risk tonight. There might well be areas of frost, especially in central and eastern Vermont, but overall, tonight will be a bit warmer than last night. 

That's because more clouds will be coming in. This will introduce a fairly long stretch of wet weather.

Wednesday/Thursday

There's some debate as to when the rain will start Wednesday. Could be early in the morning, could be in the late morning. But it's not going to be a nice day. Another stay indoors day for sure. It'll be rainy and cool, with chilly southeast breezes. Once again we'll  only get into the 50s. 

The storm coming in from the west will eventually transfer to a new, sluggish system on or near the New England coast. That will keep moisture coming inland across the region. That means on and off rain through Thursday. 

Early estimates say most of us would get between a half and three quarters of an inch of rain out of this, with maybe bit less right near the Canadian border.  A few spots central and south could get over an inch of rain. 

Friday/Weekend

That offshore New England storm will probably keep clouds and some showers going on Friday, but my early guess is it won't be a washout. And it'll be a little warmer, with highs in the 60s.

The weekend looks pretty good. There is a slight chance of showers, I suppose, but we'll also a fair amount of sun, fingers crossed. The bigger news is the temperature: It should get to at least near 70 degrees each day. 

The entire weather pattern is changing.  For the rest of May, chilly blasts of air will have a much more difficult time coming in from Canada than they did during the first half of the month. There might be a cool day thrown in here and there. But otherwise we'll launch into what I call pre-summer. 

The weather will be almost summery, but not quite. That means lots of 70s and for almost all of us, no chance of nighttime more frosts.

Let those gardens grow! 

Cold, Rainy Day In Vermont Keeping Us Indoors, But Giving Us A Needed Soaking

National Weather Service radar showed rain moving southwest
to northeast from New York into Vermont as of 9:45 a.m. 
today. So as you can see, we're in for a wet day. 
That rain-free area in southeast Vermont should
get wet later today. 

 I'm posting this morning's update late than usual because I decided to sleep in today. 

It's a perfect day to do it, with a steady rain drumming on the roof and chilly air outside. Might as well relax for a change, right?  

The wind and thunderstorms and power outages from yesterday have faded. 

Most of the power outages were in eastern Vermont.  Gusty winds ahead of the showers and thunderstorms knocked trees to power lines in places like Barre and Thetford. 

As mentioned yesterday, trees are suddenly getting heavier as thousands of leaves on each tree sprout and grow. 

That many leaves are heavy when taken together. If you have a large tree in your yard and have to rake and remove the leaves in the fall, you know what I'm talking about. 

If a tree was weakened during the winter, the new leaves and the wind can combine to knock them down. We'll see more random trees break or fall here and there as the leaves continue to grow. 

A few brush fires developed in eastern Vermont before the showers, too. A tree fell on a power line in Newfane, sparking a brush fire there. 

There won't be any brush fires in Vermont today. Here are the details

TODAY

It was raining everywhere in Vermont as of 9 a.m. except in far southeastern Vermont.  A cold front is creeping across the state at a snail's pace while a wave of low pressure rides along the front. We're still looking at storm totals from yesterday afternoon to this evening of around an inch, with more in some spots. 

There's a good chance that Burlington, Vermont will break a very old record for the today's date. The wettest May 6 on record is 0.85 inches set way back in 1894. Those forecasts for an inch of rain today would break that record. 

Southeastern Vermont will see less rain, with maybe a half inch expected. Which sucks, because that's the driest part of the state. It would have been nice if they'd get more rain out to this. Spoiler: There will be more rain chances after today. 

The rain will start to dwindle first in northwest mid to late afternoon and that trend of rain ending will then spread southeast in the evening. 

Highs should stay in the 40s north and hold in the 50s for the most part south, so it's a cold, wet May day. Get your indoor projects done today!

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

Both days will be cool for the season, but not bad. This weather pattern always has us under a threat of a shower, but if any develop either of these days, they should be light and isolated.  Forecasters are also expecting a fair amount of sun  mixed with the clouds both days. Highs should only be in the 50s to low 60s, which is cooler than average for this time of year.  

WEEKEND

Things could change, but it's looking unsettled. One little storm looks like it will go just to our south, so most of the rain will hit southern New England. But, we'll have clouds and a good chance of showers. Especially in southern Vermont. It won't be a big dump of rain down there, but it add a little more water to the fields and gardens down there. 

A slightly stronger storm will approach Sunday. At first, That will probably warm us up well into the 60s. If we're lucky, the rain will hold off until Sunday night. 

There's still lots of questions on the speed, path and intensity of that storm, so we don't know how much rain we'll get. 

After that, it's back to the relatively cool, unsettled weather we've had most days lately. 

Vermont Tuesday Evening Update: We're Likely To Escape Severe Thunderstorms, Hope I'm Not Jinxing It

Threatening clouds over St. Albans, Vermont as 
downpours approached this afternoon. There was
potential for severe storms today, but luckily,
it appears they did not materialize. 

 Numerous showers, thunderstorms and downpours passed through the state this afternoon and they were still ongoing in eastern Vermont late this afternoon.   

Some of the storms had briefly gusty winds but nothing outrageous. So far, there's been no reports of any severe thunderstorms.

 Burlington, which had winds gusting from the south at about 35 mph all morning and early afternoon, had a gust of 32 mph from the northwest as outflow from a nearby storm hit. 

There were a fair number of lightning strikes, but again, nothing too scary. 

By late afternoon around 8,000 homes and businesses were without electricity. They surged shortly before 5 p.m. as a line of fairly strong showers moved through the Connecticut River Valley. They weren't thunderstorms at this point, but there was probably an outflow boundary. 

Many of the power outages had nothing to do with showers and thunderstorms. This time of year, trees are leafing out. Leaves are amazingly heavy, if you get enough of them. Like on a big tree. Trees and branches that had gotten weakened over the winter finally gave way on a windy day as leaves grew in the warmth of gusty south winds. 

Bottom line: I don't see any reports of severe thunderstorm damage, and no severe storm warnings came from the National Weather Service. It looks like the atmosphere was able to produce a lot of thunderstorms, but the "magic" wasn't quite there to create severe ones. 

National Weather Service radar showed a line of downpours
across central Vermont, and scattered elsewhere, but it
looks like nothing severe arose from the showers and storms. 

We could still see a couple strong storms this evening, but the chances of that happening are diminishing fast.  

Today's showers were quick movers so most places didn't get much rain. Burlington so far has had 0.14 inches and Montpelier was at 0.09 inches by late afternoon, though the showers hadn't finished moving through central Vermont yet.  My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 0.25. 

If you didn't get wet enough, we've still got a soaking rain scheduled for tomorrow. 

As it stands now, the northwestern two thirds of Vermont should see an inch of additional rain or a bit more than that. The southeaster corner of the state is in for a bit less, maybe three quarters of an inch. 

That's too bad, since that is the driest part of the state and needs the most rain. 

We'll have a bit of a temperature gradient across Vermont, too. Highs in the far northwest, places like Highgate and Swanton down to about Burlington will see afternoon temperatures only in the mid and upper 40s. Really chilly for this time of year. 

Temperatures should reach the low 60s in far southern Vermont, but might tend to back off through the 50s tomorrow afternoon.

As always, I'll have a full update tomorrow morning. 

Monday Morning Vermont Update: More Rain And Cool Temperatures After Brief Warmup

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center map for tomorrow
depicting where severe thunderstorms are forecast.
Notice the green over northern New England. 
That's a level one out of five alert levels, meaning
they have a risk of isolated, brief severe storms
for us Tuesday afternoon. We'll see if that pans out. 

So much for what was supposed to be our slightly cool but bright and sunny Sunday. 

Instead, a pool of frigid air thousands of feed overhead fueled lots of clouds, held temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 across most of the state.  

Graupel - a sort of sleety, frozen snow -  fell as I tried to help a St. Albans woman with her garden cleanup, and I'm sure it fell elsewhere. 

I'm sure graupel fell along with light, cold rain showers fell elsewhere in the state Sunday. 

At 4 p.m., it was still only 28 degrees atop Mount Mansfield with a wind chill of 15. Lyndonville at the time was only 44 degrees. 

So, March in May. I'm sure there were lots of complaints.

TODAY

This morning, I awoke to wet ground again in St. Albans. My bar is now set so low I was just grateful to find no snow on the ground. 

Some light showers hit early this morning due to a warm front passing by. A weakening band of additional showers in northern New York early this morning should  hold the clouds over northern Vermont through much of the morning and maybe yield a few more light showers. 

At least the sun is supposedly coming out this afternoon. We'll see!  Highs should get up into the low 60s, which would feel fantastic compared to the chill we dealt with over the weekend. 

Tonight should be mild, too, especially in the Champlain Valley. Warmer nights tend to really boost the spring green up. Our hillsides are starting to show a haze of green as trees bud and flower and baby leaves spring into existence. You'll notice a difference by the end of the day tomorrow. 

TUESDAY

Speaking of differences, there's differences of opinion on how stormy tomorrow afternoon will turn. It'll be a mild day, as temperatures will be able to get into the low 70s for many of us on solid southwest winds and some sunshine. 

We know there's a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. But what about thunderstorms?

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has northern New England, including all but extreme southern Vermont in a marginal risk (level 1 on a five point scale) of severe thunderstorms 

High humidity is one useful ingredient for severe thunderstorms, and we really won't have that.  Dew points will be in the 40s to around 50.  That doesn't scream severe weather like a humid 60 degree dew point might. 

But, there's strong winds aloft, and the atmosphere several thousand feet up will be quite cold. That could help create enough instability to create towering clouds to produce thunderstorms. 

Forecasters also expect high winds aloft. Thunderstorms can grab that high wind and bring it to the surface. That means an isolated risk of wind damage. Winds will also change direction with height, so the Storm Prediction Center even has a very, very minuscule, but not zero percent chance of a brief spin up tornado in central and northern Vermont.  

Everyone agrees this won't be any king of widespread severe outbreak. Just a risk of isolated trouble. 

However, as the National Weather Service office in Burlington points out, there are factors that could mean there might not be any severe weather at all, and maybe not much in the way of any thunderstorms. 

One is that lack of high humidity. Another reason there might not be big storms is that clouds and even light showers could come in during the early and mid-afternoon. That would stabilize the atmosphere and prevent vigorous thunderstorms. 

So, there you have it.  We'll offer updates tomorrow morning, of course. 

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY

National Weather Service prediction map that shows the
amount of rain expected between now and Thursday 
morning. Most of Vermont would get somewhere 
near an inch of rain if this forecast is accurate. 

Everyone seems to agree Tuesday night and Wednesday will be rainy. And colder. Low will drop into the 40s by Wednesday morning and barely make it to 50 Wednesday afternoon amid the cold rain. 

If you're looking for a day to stay inside and get stuff done there, Wednesday' your day. 

Total rainfall right now looks like it will be about an inch, give or take. We could use the soaking, so OK. As always, there could be adjustments to that forecast,

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

It looks like we're in for a repeat of what we had late last week and this past weekend. Clouds, peeks of sun and an ever-present chance of showers. It's too early to pick out when the showers are most likely. Any rain that does fall should be really light and not amount to too much. 

Like this past weekend, it will be cool. But probably not quite a chilly as this past weekend was. Maybe mid to upper 50s instead of low 50s.  We'll take any improvement we can get. 

The overall weather pattern that has kept most days rather cool in the opening days of May should continue through mid-month. But the pattern looks like it wants to slowly get less intense. So, at least after Wednesday, the chances of seeing a day as brisk and cold as this past Saturday and Sunday are diminishing. 

Vermont's Damp, Chilly Start To May Is No Match For Past May New England Nightmares

Only the briefest breaks in the clouds yesterday as 
clouds billowed up to produce showers. 
Highs were only in the low 50s and chilly 
breezes made it worse. We face daily rain
chances tomorrow through next weekend. 

 We've gotten ourselves into a weather pattern share in New England in which clouds predominant and rain is an almost constant threat. 

But if you're slightly depressed about the weather, it can get a lot worse this time of year. More on that in a minute. 

We're only into the third day of May, and it hasn't been all that bad yet. Sure, yesterday was sort of unpleasant, with clouds, chilly breezes and on and off light showers. 

The next couple of days don't look terrible. But rain is coming back, and after a brief warm up, chilly weather and rain will be back. 

DETAILS

Today:

The only day in the near future I see without a rain threat seems to be today.  Morning clouds should dissolve into at least a partly sunny day. Highs should get into the 50s, which is a little cool for this time of year. 

Monday

A weak warm front tomorrow morning might set off a few light showers, mostly north and west. The rest of the day looks pretty good again under partly sunny skies and highs in the seasonable low 60s. Southwest breezes might occasionally help keep the black flies at bay. They're terrible this year! But I guess the black flies are horrendous every spring. 

Tuesday

A warmer and eventually wetter day.  The southwest breezes should continue and highs should rise into the low 70s. We also having a rising chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. I'm not sure yet whether any of thunderstorms will become strong, but the chances of a lot of severe thunderstorms is looking quite low.

Wednesday 

A slow moving cold front will keep us rainy and much cooler again. Highs should stay in the 50s.  This could change but rainfall totals Tuesday night to Wednesday night look like they might be a decent half inch to an inch. Nothing incredible, but we actually need the rain, so we'll take what we can get. 

Thursday and Beyond

Starting Thursday and continuing for perhaps several days, we're back to annoying weather. We probably won't have much rain Thursday and next weekend. Unless a nor'easter type storm comes closer to Vermont than we now think it will. 

But there will be an ever-present chance of showers, we will probably have a fair amount of clouds and temperatures will definitely be cooler than average for this time of year. 

IT COULD BE WORSE

The unsettled weather pattern has be thinking about past bouts of bad May weather. Just because I like to prove that if you're a little peeved about the weather, it could definitely be worse. 

1917

The coldest May on record. Only two days that month were warmer than 63 degrees. Nowadays, at least, in our climate changed world, normal May highs in Burlington range from 64 degrees on the 1st to 74 degrees on the 31st. 

The coldest it got that month was 32 degrees, which actually isn't that bad for May, but 18 mornings were in the 30s.  On eight days in May, 1917, temperatures in Burlington never got out of the 40s. 

1966

It's a tight battle, but my vote for the worst May on record in the past several decades is 1966. There were  series of bad Mays in the 1960s - cold, frosty, sometime snowy. But 1966 is probably the most miserable. Especially the first half. 

In Burlington, each morning from the May 1 through 15, 1966 were in the 20s and 30s. Eleven of those mornings were below freezing. That includes a low of 24 degrees on May 3, still the coldest temperature on record for May. It was 15 degrees in West Burke, 18 in Bloomfield and Chelsea and 19 in Cavendish, according to the Vermont Weather Book. 

On May 9, Burlington had 3.5 inches of snow, which is still the city's largest May snowstorm on record. Peru, Vermont had 11 inches of snow that day,  Newport had 5.2 inches. 

The second half of May, 1966 was better, with four days actually making it into the low 80s. 

1997

The most depressing May that I can remember clearly was in 1997.  There really weren't any temperature extremes, but we could just not get a warm day.  The temperature never got past 70 degrees until the 28th. May, 1997 is still the 10th coldest on record, 

 I remember the trees not fully leafing out until we got into June that year. Spring, 1997 was especially depressing because April was quite cold, too, 

2013

May, 2013 was actually pretty nice until we got toward the end of the month. Burlington had more than an inch of rain on four consecutive days on May 22-25.  May 21 came close to making it five days with 0.96 inches. I don't think there's any wetter stretch of weather than that on record. A whopping 7.39 inches of rain fell within six days.

The month's total was 8.74 inches, making it the wettest May on record. 

The first part of this wet spell was warm, with torrential thunderstorms. Those storms caused some damaging flash flooding in eastern Chittenden and Lamoille County, Vermont. 

A cold front passed and stalled to the east of Vermont, causing heavy snow in the mountains. Three feet of snow covered the summit of Whiteface Mountain in New York. The summit of Mount Mansfield had 13.2 inches, the latest in the season the mountain has gotten a foot of snow.

Nothing extreme like that is in the forecast for now. I guess we're blessed this May looks like it will just turn out mediocre.