The Other Side Of Summer: Peak Of The Season Is Passed, But Not Autumn Yet!

The end of a brief downpour Sunday evening over
St. Albans, Vermont yielded this lovely sunset. 
Some people in Franklin County and the northern
Lake Champlain islands with a view to the east
were also treated to a spectacular, giant rainbow.

 It looks like we ended what I can "peak summer" on August 5.  That's when a long, long stretch of heat and humidity finally broke. 

Now, we're on what I call the other side of summer, the beginning of a long slide toward autumn. We can still get big heat waves. We can still endure insufferable humidity any time in the next few weeks. 

But at least slightly cooler air should keep making intrusions. It's a reminder that those store back to school sales, which started the day after school let out in June, should properly be beginning right about now. 

The weather here in Vermont since August 5 has varied from warm but not hot, to just kind of comfortable. We should expect the same stuff for at least a week.  Though humidity might make a comeback for awhile beginning toward the weekend. 

Right now, there's a chilly pool of air high overhead. The snow level over Vermont was expected to get as low as 7,500 feet above sea level last night and part of today, so it's that cold way up there. If we had tall mountains like out West, we'd have snow capped peaks this morning. 

The contrast between the relative warmth down here and the cold air up there creates instability. Which means quite a few scattered showers. That explains the very changeable weather we had Sunday. 

NEW YORK TORNADO?

As a side note, New York State just can't catch a break. I guess the Empire State is a new Tornado Alley.

This kind of weather pattern, the cold air aloft and the kinda warmish air down here, usually sets off a bunch of showers and garden-variety thunderstorms. Nothing severe or scary.

That's just what happened yesterday. Everybody in the region saw those mild-mannered showers and friendly little thunderstorms.

Except northeast of Utica, New York. One weird thunderstorm last evening got intense for some reason and started spinning, prompting a tornado warning in that region. I don't know whether a tornado actually touched down. Luckily, the storm weakened quite a bit not long after, ending the threat. That thunderstorm eventually entered southwestern Vermont as a run of the mill brief, harmless downpour. 

New York State has already had 27 tornadoes this year, shattering a previous record for most tornadoes in a year. Just on Friday, the 27th New York tornado of 2024 was confirmed. It was a weak EF-0 twister was confirmed along the New York State Thruway near New Paltz, in the lower Hudson Valley on Friday.

FORECAST

Back here in Vermont, we have those garden variety showers and storms to dodge again today. Since it's so cold aloft, don't be surprised to see a bit of pea-sized hail mixed in if you're caught in a somewhat stronger storm.  

The air aloft will tend to warm up a bit starting tomorrow, so showers should be much fewer and further between. For the rest of the week, at least through Friday, it's going to be a battle between high pressure trying to scoot in for fair weather and upper level cool air and low pressure trying to keep the showers going. 

Best guess is Wednesday will be the nicest day, while we might end up dodging showers again Thursday. 

Some sort of new storm system looks like it wants to come in next weekend, but it's unclear how that will play out. We'll probably end up with somewhat higher humidity and more showers. I have no idea yet if those showers will be heavy and plentiful, or just nuisance sprinkles. 

HURRICANE ERNESTO?

For starters, just to make you relax, this doesn't look like the following will be Vermont's problem. 

A disturbance is organizing in the middle of the tropical Atlantic, and it's widely forecasted to eventually become Hurricane Ernesto.

It's a threat to the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico.  It'll be moving westward at first. However, toward Wednesday or Thursday, what will be Ernesto will take a hard right turn, and head northward over the open Atlantic far, far to the east of the United States. It looks like it could become quite a powerful hurricane out there, though.  

Beginning The Long Slide Toward (Ahem) Winter, But In No Hurry

A sign that the season is progressing. The hydrangeas
near my lower deck start out white, and are now turning
pink as we head toward late summer. By autumn,
they'll be a nice russet color. 

 If you look at what are considered average temperatures, we began our slide toward the depths of winter on Friday.  

Don't worry, the National Weather Service will not be issuing winter storm warnings anytime soon.  Heat advisories, maybe, but no winter stuff. 

Still, what is considered the normal average temperature on Friday was 72.5 degrees, down every so slightly from the 73 degree "normal" readings that were the summer peak throughout the middle of July.

Of course, the downward trend will continue - slowly at firs - then more rapidly until it bottoms out in January. 

There's plenty of summer to get through, though. August can be hot, as we know. The weather pattern suggests that for now, we're not going to see much of a cooling trend.

In fact, today might well be the coldest day we'll see in Vermont through mid-August. Not that you're going to freeze. Afternoon highs today will be in the 70s, with the warmest spots maybe touching 80 degrees. 

That's maybe a couple degrees cooler than average, but definitely not autumnal. Tonight will be comfortable, too.  Definitely a nice day, with sun, and some puffy clouds mixed in. And a nice breeze.

Then it heats up.

The dreaded heat dome that's been drifting around the nation all summer is back at it.  The heat this week and weekend is focused on the Pacific Northwest, where dozens upon dozens of new high temperature records have been set. It's also an unusually long heat wave for them, lasting a full week. Which makes the heat especially dangerous. Four heat related deaths have already been reported in Oregon. 

But that heat dome wants to expand and slosh eastward next week. That'll finally cool places like Washington and Oregon down a bit. But the nation's middle will turn torrid again. The expanding heat dome, with an assist from the Bermuda High out in the Atlantic Ocean, will ensure most of the Uniteed States, including Vermont stay toasty for at least the next week or two.  

Luckily, we're far enough north so that occasional weak cold fronts from Canada through mid-month will on some days blunt the heat here. For the next couple of weeks, it looks like some days in Vermont will be hot, other days will be merely warm and a little uncomfortable. For the upcoming week, the hottest days look to be Monday and Thursday. 

Enjoy it while it lasts. Before you know it, you'll be reading about wind chill and winter storm watches in this here blog thingy. .