Vermont Remains On The Edge Of Wild Weather Pattern; Slight Flood Threat But Not As Bad As Further 'South

The first rains of our wet period are seen yesterday
over Lake Champlain near Alburgh. Some areas of
Vermont will see a couple inches or more of rain, with
a localized flood threat. The Northeast Kingdome
looks like it will largely miss out

 As you've seen in the headlines, there's been a lot of rough weather in the United States this summer. 

One long stripe of the nation has really gotten nailed. It goes from Minnesota and Wisconsin, through the Great Lakes, into the Ohio Valley and finally the Mid-Atlantic States.

That zone has repeatedly gotten some horrible thunderstorms and even tornadoes. Repeatedly. With no real end in sight.

Yesterday, a nasty tornado swept through parts of northeast Wisconsin, trashing large sections of Menasha, Neenah and Appleton.  Also Monday, severe thunderstorms packing 80 mph winds and possible tornadoes harassed the Chicago area. Flooding was also reported. 

Today, severe thunderstorms will hit the Mid-Atlantic states again. More flash flooding is a risk, too, especially in the New York City metro area. 

 Here in Vermont, we've mostly gotten glancing blows from all this wild, weird summer weather. Sometimes, it does mange to hit us, like when we had that pair of tornadoes in June, or those destructive microbursts in the Northeast Kingdom and southern Vermont earlier this month. But we haven't gotten the worst of it in the Green Mountain State. 

This time around, we're on the edge of the "fun" today and tomorrow. We don't have to worry about severe thunderstorms. Flash flooding is a bit of a threat, especially in southern Vermont, but - fingers crossed - this doesn't look like it will be anything widespread or super destructive.

Though I'm pretty relaxed about the forecast, this kind of weather system can pull surprises. Things won't turn out exactly as the current predictions. I'll give it a go as to what will happen, based on what the National Weather Service is telling us this morning. 

TODAY

Forecasted rain fall through Friday morning, from the
National Weather Service. Note that rainfall 
amounts will be more variable than depicted here. 

There were some showers and thunderstorms and downpours yesterday, mostly in the Adirondacks, bu they were pretty widely scattered. 

That kind of stuff will be more widespread today. Especially the further west and south you go.

Based on radar images at 9 a.m. today. you'd think a big dose of needed rain would be starting in Vermont very soon. There was a big stripe of rain, with a few embedded downpours in the central Adirondack, extending down to places just west of Albany, New York.

But this stuff was just barely crawling eastward. And it looks like it will weaken as it does so.

However, more showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as that slow weather system continues to press grudgingly eastward today. 

It will probably rain most places today, though showers and thunderstorms will be especially hit and maybe mostly miss in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Areas south and west of Interstate 89 have the best chance of seeing rain and downpours, possibly multiple hits. That's especially true down in far southern Vermont and up toward  Albany/Glens Falls/Lake George, New York and on its the Adirondacks, 

This area has the best chances of local flash floods today, though I'd emphasize that the chances of that happening are pretty low. Mostly because it's been so dry lately. Still, if any one place gets nailed by numerous downpours, one right after the other, then there could be a local high water problem

TONIGHT

Showers and storms will continue off an on. Since the wet airflow will come from the south and east, off the Atlantic, the best chance of heavier rain is on the east slopes of the southern Green Mountains and in the east slopes of the Adirondacks. 

Again, no widespread flooding, but there could be a pocket here or there the could have a creek or small stream overflow enough to damage a gravel road or driveway, or possibly damage a particularly unlucky  house. 

WEDNESDAY

By tomorrow morning, the center of our sluggish storm will be somewhere in the general vicinity of New York City, give or take. That set up will keep sending waves of showers northward into Vermont.  Again, the best chance of heavier rain is in southern Vermont. And maybe the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains maybe as far north as Sugarbush. 

If any flooding happens, it'll be in southern Vermont, especially in the steep slopes of the southern Greens. Again, so far at least, we're not expecting anything widespread. Definitely not a repeat of 2023, as it looks now. Even so, the creeks, small streams and brooks in southern Vermont especially will need to be watched. 

A saving grace is it looks like it will be too cloudy and too cool to allow any torrential thunderstorms to develop. So rainfall rates won't be as likely to produce flash flooding as we would see with a lot of thunderstorms. 

Once again, he Northeast Kingdom looks like it will be more protected from the rains. The White Mountains of New Hampshire might help block some of the Atlantic Ocean moisture that will be flowing into New England. 

THURSDAY

The stupid, slow, meandering storm will begin to depart. We'll still have some showers around, but the risk of heavy rain will diminish.

As noted, the rainfall will be super variable. One town might see more than two or even three inches of rain out of this, while a few towns over will see maybe a half inch to an inch. 

Broad brush, many areas south of Route 4 should get more that two inches of rain between now and Thursday. Some spots in the southern Green Mountains could easily go past three inches, maybe even approach four inches in isolated spots.

Central Vermont in general would receive one to 1.5 inches. Most of northern Vermont should receive an inch or less. Some places in the Northeast Kingdom could easily receive less than a half inch of rain, 

So, some places in Vermont will get too much rain, while other places not enough, It's still very dry in  northern Vermont, so a half inch of rain won't cut it. We'll need more, But at least the rain will cut back a burgeoning fire hazard. Brush fires were reported in recent days in Essex Junction and Fairfax. There probably were a few other small blazes breaking out in other parts of the state. 

Fortunately for the north and unfortunately for soon to be soggy southern Vermont, the weather pattern looks pretty active, though slow moving.  There's another potentially wet system that might come at us later Sunday or Monday. 

A Wet Spell Coming To Vermont: Some Risk Of Flash Flooding; Far North Might Miss Out

National Weather Service forecast map. Through Thursday
morning. If this forecast holds, the southern half of 
Vermont would get more than an inch of rain, with
local amounts much higher. Northern Vermont 
looks like it will get less. 

Today is dawning as it did the past couple of days, sunny, a little hazy from atmospheric wildfire smoke in the air.  

According to WCAX meteorologist Gunnar Consul said that Sunday was the exact midpoint between Burlington's average last and spring snowfall. So, we're in the midsummer doldrums. 

Which means slow moving, sluggish weather systems. 

For most of us, today will be a relatively nice day. But if you were a geek watching weather radar yesterday, you saw some slow moving showers and thunderstorms in the Adirondacks. There's not much motion of the atmosphere so they kind of sat there. 

The same state of affairs will happen today, and that introduces a rainy stretch that will lead to the risk of some localized flooding over the next few days. I'm absolutely not in panic mode like I was before  the big summer floods of 2023 and 2024. 

This episode doesn't look nearly as dire as that, unless there's some incredible surprise all the meteorologists are missing. But be on the lookout for the risk of some local flash flood problems that might erupt between today and Thursday.  

TODAY

The local flash flood risk starts today, almost exclusively in the Adirondacks. And maybe the western side of Lake Champlain in New York. That said, the chances of that happening are low. I just mentioned it because storms that develop won't move much. So they could dump huge amounts of rain in very small, pinpoint areas. That can be dangerous within the steep slopes of the Adirondacks.  

Here in Vermont, we'll watch the storms erupt here and there to our west, on the other side of Lake Champlain. Eventually, later this afternoon and early evening, a few showers or storms will erupt in Vermont, too. Most of us will stay dry and enjoy a nice day. Maybe 30 percent of us will get some rain by sunset. 

Because storms will be few and far between, it will get well into the 80s again today. 

TUESDAY

A much better chance of showers and thunderstorms, at least in the western half of the area. The disturbance causing the showery weather will have moved only slightly east. 

So there's an excellent chance of rain in southwest Vermont and New York. Much of central Vermont and the Champlain Valley has a very good chance of showers and storms. Again, since all the showers and storm will be moving very slowly, and some will contain torrential downpours.  All but the far Northeast Kingdom is under a marginal, level one of four risk of local flash floods. 

Northeastern Vermont should get through the day with just widely scattered showers and storms, so there risk os lover there. 

Again, this won't be a widespread problem. Since there will be sunshine, too, most of us should get into the low and mid 80s. The humidity will have risen somewhat, too. So it will be a partly cloudy, hazy, muggy day with the ever-present chance of showers and storms especially south and west of Interstate 89

WEDNESDAY

This will be the day with the best chance of rain. A nearly stalled weak but very wet storm will wander somewhere around New England and New York. This will set up a wet flow of air from the southeast - off the Atlantic Ocean - will push into New England, including Vermont. The heaviest rain will fall in southern Vermont, especially along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. 

We'll have to watch whichever spots ended up with the heaviest rainstorms on Tuesday will have to be watched for local flash floods. All but far northern Vermont is once again in a marginal, level one out of four on the risk scale. Areas in far southern Vermont - along Route 9 - are in a level 2 slight risk zone, as is most of southern New England. 

Areas in far northern Vermont that really need the rain look like they might miss out. It will rain up there. Any rain is good, but as it looks now, it probably won't be a deep soaker. 

Rainfall will be highly variable as it always is with showers and thunderstorms. In general, current forecasts give southern Vermont an inch or two of rain, with generally an inch in central Vermont. Far northern Vermont looks to receive only a half inch or so. Nice, but not enough.

Overall, with all the clouds and rain, it will be cool, but humid, with temperatures hovering in the 70s

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

Lingering showers and rumbles of thunder as that slow, rambling storm slowly leaves. So it will be an unsettled, iffy day. Some showers might linger into Friday. But warm, rather sunny, kind of humid weather will linger Friday and Saturday. Another sluggish system looks like it might arrive Sunday with more showers and storms. 

Severe U.S. Storms Since June Have Yielded Destruction, And Dramatic Videos.

Severe flooding last week in West Virginia. As you can 
tell from the videos in this post, it has been a stormy
summer in the United States. 

This summer seems like it's been a particularly stormy one. 

It seems every time I turn around, there's more news articles about tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, microbursts and flash floods. 

More floods and storms are on the horizon in the South, Midwest and parts of the Northeast in the coming days. 

But here's a visual look back, midway through this turbulent summer. 

As always, we have bunch of videos to share, to show you that whatever bad weather you've had this summer, somebody else had it worse. 

We'll start back on June 8, in Kansas.  Straight line winds were reported gusting as high as 113 mph last Salinas, Kansas. 

I don't think the video captures the peak of the storm, but it still looks strikingly like a hurricane. In Kansas. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

There's usually still plenty of tornadoes across the United States in Juneau.   Skydrama Weather Co tracked a few tornadoes across northern Missouri on June 10.  Always interesting to see the shapeshifting tornadoes how they go from one form to the next.  This is one of those shiftshapers. The end of the video shows a beautiful, strange blue and purple supercell coming into Kirksville, Missouri. The blue indicates lots of hail in the storm.

As always, click on this link to view, of if you see the image below, click on that. 

Skydrama Weather Co has more tornado footage, this from a June 11 tornado outbreak in Illinois. They caught several tornadoes I'm struck by how fast their forward speed was, especially the large tornado that opens the clip. Click in this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that 

From Brian Emfinger, we have a video from a drone taken on June 11 showing a narrow, drill bit style tornado, going through fields and solar farms in Ipava, Illinois. Luckily, the tornado is weak, as it only damages a few solar panels. 

Eventually the tornado goes into the town itself, but again, weak enough to cause little damage. Still, it's a fascinating video.  Much more destructive tornadoes struck Illinois and Indiana that day. 

Click on this link to view the drone clip of the tornado or if you see the image below, click on that. 

The Fourth of July brought lots of strong and severe thunderstorms that swept through the eastern United States over the holiday. 

One of the storms hit Lititz, Pennsylvania as the city geared up for their Fourth of July. It looks like it was one of those deals where people get there early, stake their places with blankets and belongings, and wander around to enjoy the day's festivities. 

Then a severe thunderstorm blew in. Good luck figured out who set things where. As you'll see in the video, it was a mess, to put it mildly. 

 Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

On July 6, the eastern United States were still going full steam. Torrential storms caused damaging flash flooding in New Jersey. 

Part of the roof of a BJ's Warehouse in Ocean Township, collapsed under the weight of the torrential downpours. Miraculously, nobody was seriously injured, including the older man in the video who was swept to the side by water, display tables and debris. 

 Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

In early July, Super Typhoon Bavi hit the island of Rota in the Northern Mariana Island with 180 mph sustained winds. As you would imagine, the destruction was basically total.

Click on this link to view how bad a Category 5 typhoon can be. Or, if you see the image below, click on that

Brian Emfinger bring us a video, mostly drone footage, of the aftermath of an extreme flash flood near Lesterville, Missouri. A foot of rain fell in just a few hours, creating an extreme flash flood that swept through a campground. In looks like at least a couple dozen people were rescued from roofs including some where were stranded atop a collapsed building 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Large fires broke out in Ontario, Canada recently, as we know from the wildfire smoke that has drifted in recent weeks across southeast Canada and the northern and eastern United States.  This video shows Canadian National Railway Company (CN Rail) on the tracks near Armstrong, Ontario as flames surrounded them. I'm struck by how calm the narrator with his Canadian accent inside the train.

Click here to see the video, or if you see the image below click on that. 

Severe storms unleashes extreme flash flooding Tuesday in West Virginia. The disaster reminded me of what happened across Vermont in July, 2023. It was that bad. Even the West Virginia landscape looks similar to Vermont.  

The Associated Press has an overview video. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Tropical Storm Bertha formed a few days go and sort of bounced westward along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Strong upper level winds prevented the storm from amounting to much. Winds never got above 50 mph, and most of the rough weather stayed offshore 

Unlike a previous tropical storm named Arthur in mid-June, Bertha appears to have caused relatively little damage. Arthur caused torrential rains and severe floods, causing four deaths and at least $1 billion in damage. 

Still, Bertha caused its share of trouble. On Dauphin Island, Alabama, high storm tides shifted sand, trapping cars.  People who tried to drive over sandbars that formed over local roads also soon became trap, as a Live Storms Media video shows. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

The same flood event in West Virginia: A flash flood crashes through the ground floor of a Hilton hotel in Weston, West Virginia. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

Another Nice Day Yields To An Iffy Today In Vermont Then Sweet Summer Weather To Return

A widespread severe weather outbreak is likely today in 
the Mid-Atlantic states. Vermont should be on the
edge of it, with just a marginal risk of strong storms. 

 Monday was another gorgeous day across Vermont. After a cool start, the day warmed into the low 80s. as expected. There was only a slight haze of wildfire smoke so air quality was OK. 

Today, we are going to largely escape a nasty severe weather outbreak in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. 

Much like last Saturday, the severe weather is likely in western New York all the way down to Tennessee and North Carolina. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky have a high chance of severe storms and even scattered tornadoes. 

Up here in Vermont, much like this past Saturday, we'll be on the edge of it. The atmosphere is conspiring against much weather violence in the Green Mountain State. That said, there's a marginal, level one out of five alert level of severe storms in most of Vermont later today. 

Back on Saturday, we were in the same situation, with lots of severe storms to our south and west, and we were on the edge of it. The National Weather Service was predicting some risk of severe storms in Vermont, which never materialized as conditions remained cool, cloudy and smoky. 

Unlike last Saturday, there are a few breaks in the clouds today, and the smoke is much thinner than it was on Saturday, as noted. 

Last Saturday, temperatures hovered in the 60s most of the afternoon, which is usually too chilly to support severe weather.   

Today is warmer, as highs should reach well into the 70s to low 80s. Also, like on 'Saturday, it will get more and more humid as we go through the day.  So I think we have a decent shot at thunderstorms. But not a widespread severe event. 

Judging from satellite photos this morning, the old remnants of previous thunderstorms, now decayed, should arrive to cloud up Vermont's skies, limiting the instability in the air just when you need sunshine the most to power up thunderstorms 

There could be showers anytime today, but it looks like they will be pretty scattered until mid or late afternoon and into the evening, when the showers and storms should come through in earnest. Although there a decent area of rain did blossom in southern Vermont during the mid-morning. 

That's when we could see the risk of a few widely scattered strong to borderline severe storms, though I'd emphasize the majority of us won't see anything that dramatic. Some places might hardly see any kind of showers or storms, 

For those of you wanting a nice, soaking rain, this won't be the wettest summer storm system ever. On average, southern Vermont might see a half inch of rain, northwest Vermont a third of an inch, with the Northeast Kingdom seeing less than a quarter inch. 

That's just broad brush. As is always the case with showers and storms, some towns will be big winners with over an inch of rain, while some other communities get sprinkles or light showers, It's impossible to tell in advance exactly who gets what in these situations. 

TOMORROW

We're not quite out of the shower and storm risk. The last of a series of weak weather fronts should cone through midday as a cold front. This should power up some scattered showers and storms.  The usual hit and miss routine. It looks like the timing of the front will be such that the storms will just be beginning to fire up in Vermont when peak afternoon instability begins to hit. 

For now, it looks like none of the storms will become severe until they reach New Hampshire and Maine, and southern New England. Even there, we see only a marginal, level one out of five risk for nasty storms there.

We should still see highs within a few degrees either side of 80 before the chillier air comes in. 

THURSDAY

Back to a hint of autumn, kinda, sort of. In any event, it should be a beautiful day. Sunny to partly cloudy and breezy, with rock bottom humidity with highs in the 70s. 

FRIDAY-SUNDAY

Another nice weekend! We've had a few of those this summer, which is definitely fortunate. Friday and Saturday will feature cool, calm mornings. Sunday morning will be a little warmer, but still comfortable. 

If the forecast holds, highs will be in the 80s, but trending a few degrees warmer each day, starting with low 80s Friday to upper 80s Sunday. 

This Year, No Repeat Of The Traditional July 10 Vermont Flood Disaster; Hot Weather Continues

Lillies soak up this morning's sun this morning in St.
Albans, Vermont. They'll likely soak up some rain
from showers and storms later today and tonight, 

 It reached 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on Wednesday. the eighth time this year it's been at least 90 degrees. 

Summer is only about half over and already, we're among only 42 years out of the past 127 with that many 90s.  However, we're not on pace for any kind of record. In 1949, Burlington endured 26 days in the 90s.

This is the 12th consecutive year with at least eight days in the 90s.  We hadn't come close to a streak like that in the past. Another little sign that our planet is warm. 

There's a chance it could be 90 degrees today, but I think clouds, showers, thunderstorms and humidity might prevent it from getting that hot. 

We're also coming up on July 10. For three years in a row, starting in 2023, Vermont faced serious flooding on that date. This year, it looks highly unlikely. And if there are any floods, it would happen late this afternoon or evening, not tomorrow.  And more importantly, any water trouble would be very minor. 

Let's explain through the details. 

TODAY

It's going to be pretty hot, humid with a risk of thunderstorms today. The storms will hit mostly the northern half of the state, and not everyone will see a shower or storm. Typical summer weather. 

There's a weak cold front lurking in southern Quebec.  As is often the case with lame summer cold fronts, there's a disturbance out ahead of it known as a pre-frontal trough. 

The pre-frontal trough is often most responsible for severe thunderstorms ahead or a cold front. However, this time, the chances of severe storms are relatively low. 

Clouds creeping in today could reduce instability. There's some smoke in the air, too, which sometimes reduces instability a little. Still, it's humid out there and the day is starting out sunny. 

The bottom line is a few storms could become strong to severe, but it won't be anything widespread like those wild storms on July 1. 

Northwestern Vermont is under a marginal risk of severe storms today. That's level 1 out of 5 alert status. That means maybe isolated severe weather. I think that low-level risk should extent throughout northern Vermont, but that's just my gut feeling.

Given the fact it's humid and getting more humid, some of the storms could produce torrential rains. Those gully washers will be pretty localized.  And they shouldn't last especially long in any one place. I suppose there might be a few minor washouts on some steep gravel driveways and along the edges of gravel roads.

 It's true that NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has northern Vermont under a marginal risk for flash floods, but this won't be a big worry. We're not gearing up for another July 10. (I know it's July 9, but the effects would last into July 10). 

After the shower and storms late this afternoon, we should have a lull before showers and a few storms hit again overnight with the actual cold front. Again, nothing to worry about. Aside from maybe some minor erosion at the edges of a couple roads, we should be OK. 

I just hope I didn't jinx everything by being this reassuring, but I, and the real meteorologists looking at this situation, just don't see any signs to create an alarm over this. 

FRIDAY

The front will continue to move south. Showers will linger during the morning, especially south. But in the afternoon, you'll notice a change in the air as the humidity gradually blows out of the state behind the front. Highs should generally be in the low 80s.

WEEKEND

Friday's cold front sets us up for a fantastic weekend. Probably the best summer weather weekend of the year. We'll have warm daytime highs, comfortable nights and low humidity. And the sun will generously shine both days.  Highs will be near 80 Saturday and in the low to mid 80s Sunday. Overnight lows will be generally between 55 and 62 degrees. 

You can't have absolute perfection, however. We have additions to the smoke being generated by fires in central Canada and the western U.S.  Wildfires have reinvigorated south of James Bay, Canada and new ones have broken out in northern Quebec.

At the very least, there will probably be some haze in the air over the weekend. It's hard to say at this point how thick that might become. We'll keep you posted as we get closer to the weekend. 

NEXT WEEK PEEK

The first half of next week should be hot again. A heat dome in the middle of the nation will temporarily stretch eastward, bringing the hot air in.  The heat might be interrupted by disturbances carrying showers and storms, but that's still iffy.

After midweek, the heat dome will move west. That will open the door to a potentially fairly long spell of cool air that would start midweek and go on for possibly several days. 

Heat Wave Still On For Vermont, Rest Of Easter U.S. Uncertain Chances For Vermont Severe Storms

Looking north from St. Albans, Vermont, showers and a few
thunderstorms could be seen trying to develop in Quebec
but dry air and a lack of instability made them sputter.
However, during our upcoming heat wave, we will
need to look toward Quebec as that's where potential
severe or torrential thunderstorms would come from.

 After a gorgeous and quite warm Sunday, today will be your last day for quite awhile to enjoy tolerable weather in Vermont. 

It'll be even warmer than yesterday, with the banana belt valleys expected to reach the upper 80s. The dew point, a general indicator of how humid it feels, will be near 60 today, so it will feel slightly more humid than Sunday. 

Then the fun really begins. Even though we know it will be hot and very humid this week and that thunderstorms are a good bet, there's still questions about exactly how hot it will get in Vermont. 

There's even bigger questions as to the extent of the thunderstorms. We do have  a risk of severe storms and localized flash flooding. Let's taking it day by day, as we usually do. 

We already covered today, so let's start with:

Tuesday.

You'll feel the air get noticeably more humid and icky as the day goes as the heat dome starts to assert itself. Because of some cloud cover, we'll probably fall short of 90 degrees in most of the state. But by late in the day, the dew point should be near 70 degrees, so it will feel steamy for sure

As we've been mentioning for the past several days, we'll be prone to those packets of "ridge runner" thunderstorms coming up and over the northern edge of the heat dome and then coming down across Vermont from Quebec.

Figuring out what time theses storms would come through aad exactly where they hit is futile more than a few hours in advance. If any of these come through tomorrow afternoon or evening, some could be severe with strong damaging winds, hail and torrential rains. 

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center a marginal, level 1 out 5 risk of severe storms in Vermont and New York.  The SPC says all the ingredients are there for big storms, but it just depends whether a trigger will set them off or not. 

"Trends in guidance will need to be monitored,:" the SPC said in its description of the threat. That's NOAA speak for we might have to upgrade the risk lel, but we want to see more data before pulling that trigger..

If storms come through late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, they're less likely to be severe, but they would contain a lot of lightning, and worse, torrential downpours. We'll have to be on our toes for the risk of local flash floods

Wednesday

Hot and humid, with a storm risk at any time, especially in the afternoon and evening. In the past, we've often had loud, soaking thunderstorms around dawn in the opening day of big heat waves, especially in northern Vermont. So based on experience, there's a chance the day might start off pretty noisily. 

If storms come through in the mid and late morning and early afternoon instead, we would  hold temperatures down into the 80s to near 90 with horrible humidity. 

But the better chance is more storms would hold off  until later in the afternoon, which would mean highs in the low to mid 90s, with that steamy, stuffy air. 

The National Weather Service  in South Burlington is considering issuing heat advisories or warnings in Vermont. They're just waiting for more "guidance" as we mentioned above from computerized forecasting data.

Such torrid, steamy air gives us a chance of strong or severe storms and torrential rains. All we need is a trigger. Those "ridge runners" will still be a threat, diving down from Quebec. While you're roasting your butt off, be on the alert for severe storms and local flash flooding.

Thursday

Likely the worst day of the heat. Again, unless storms coming in during the late morning or early afternoon to block the sun, we will all get into the 90s. There's still a chance some valleys in southeast Vermont could touch 100 degrees. 

The ever-present chance of strong thunderstorms continues, but I'm guessing the chances of that are slightly lower Thursday. 

Friday.

Same exact story. 'Nuff said.

Weekend

It's either going to be very warm and humid but slightly more bearable or the torrid weather will continue. 

Some computer models drop daytime temperatures into the mid and upper 80s and send dew points down into the mid and upper 60s. That's an improvement, I suppose, but it will still feel icky and not what we hope for in a Vermont summer weekend. . 

Other models keep the 90+ degree heat going with ridiculous humidity. 

Either way, it looks like a weak weather front will lurk somewhere over us or nearby over the weekend, continuing the risk of severe storms an local flash floods.

So, yeah, we have a crappy week coming up in the Green Mountain State. Enjoy! 

 

Enjoy The Low Humidity, Extreme Humidity, Torrid Heat, Storms On The Way To Vermont

National Weather Service heat risk map for this coming
Thursday. Click on the map to make it bigger and 
easier to see. Purple is extreme heat and risk. Dark red
is major heat. I don't remember the last time I've
seen so much purple in the heat risk map. Also
notice the flecks of purple even in Vermont. 

Saturday was another perfect summer weather day in Vermont - mostly sunny, a nice breeze, low humidity some pretty clouds. 

This morning dawned clear and cool. Temperatures were in the 50s statewide.  Despite all the rain lately, we've had a fair number of days like this in the late spring and early summer this year.

One thing that I knew we'd lose eventually is the clear, unpolluted skies that allowed us an unrestricted view of the Green Mountains and hills, shimmering green as far as the eye can see.

Now, this morning, I notice wildfire smoke beginning to creep in. To nobody's surprise due to a deep drought in the Rocky Mountains, large wildfires have broken out, especially in Utah.  There's also fires burning in a long stripe from Alaska, through central Canada to central and northern Quebec. So far, it's not nearly as bad up there as in recent years, but they're burning.

The smoke has to go somewhere, and sometimes it ends up in New England.   

There is smoke visible on the satellite photos this morning in Quebec and northern Vermont. It's not enough to harm air quality, but the air will probably look kind of hazy, especially north. For the rest of the summer and into the early autumn, we are going to continue to see some hazy days because of this. Not everyday, but the chances of crystal clear air has diminished until autumn rains and snows really hit.

Smoke is the least of our worries at this point, though. We've got a volatile week coming up that features high heat, even  higher humidity and a volatile atmosphere that could trigger more rounds of severe storms. 

TODAY:

Another beauty. Sunshine with low humidity and highs in the low 80s most places, with a few upper 70s northern hills and maybe a few mid 80s in the warmest banana belt town in the Champlain Valley and southeast Vermont.  

So it'll be a perfect day to do anything Vermonty, hike, bike, hit the garden, play softball or frisbee,  go to the beach, fall asleep on a hammock, get a maple creemee. It should be illegal to stay indoors on a day like today. 

Like yesterday, you can even lay in a grassy field and watch the puffy clouds billow up over the mountains. You know, that cloud looks like a dog, that other one looks like an ice cream cone, that third cloud looks like Weird Al Yankovic. You get the idea.

The only potential problem is a very weak disturbance that could touch off an isolated shower or garden variety thundershower near the Canadian border. No biggie.

MONDAY

One last nice day. Dawn will bring more cool air, with temperatures in the 50s to around 60.  Under sunny skies, it will get well into the 80s Warmer towns will be around 87, 88 or even 89 degrees, so pretty damn warm. But the humidity will stay low, so it will be quite tolerable out there.

TUESDAY

A transition day as the hot, humid air begin to roll in. Dawn might still be comfortably dry, but by afternoon and evening you should really start to feel the humidity. Highs should get into the 80s again. No 90s yet because of clouds and a risk of showers and thunderstorms. 

WEDNESDAY. 

A real wild card, with some questions in the forecast. Will the hot air really get in here full force? Meteorologist are leaning toward a  "yes" answer. If it does, temperatures will soar well into the 90s. Since we'll be near the edge of the torrid, muggy air, instability in the atmosphere could be almost off the charts. Some high altitude, shifting winds could enter the picture. If that happens, we could be looking at severe thunderstorms. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington notes that some models keep the hottest, most humid air off a little to our southwest Wednesday. In that case, it would still be very warm and somewhat humid, but not killer hot and without the lightning bolts, dark clouds and potential high winds nipping at our heels.

THURSDAY

This is the day Vermont is most likely to take par in the nasty heat dome that's setting up. Many cities in the Midwest and up and down the East Coast should get over 100 degrees. The forecast high Thursday in Boston and New York is around 103. Washington DC is forecasting 104. 

I wouldn't be surprised if a 100 degree reading or two snuck in to southeastern Vermont. If that happens, it'll be two years in a row with 100 degree heat in the Green Mountain State. Such heat is rare, but I guess it's becoming less so in our age of climate change.

Forecasts have the rest of Vermont well into the 90s. As of today, forecasted highs Thursday are 97 in Burlington, 95 in Montpelier, 96 in Rutland and 98 in Springfield. 

The only caveat to this is there are almost always weak ripples of energy in the atmosphere. If one comes through Thursday afternoon, that would spark a bunch of thunderstorms that would cool the air a little but do nothing to help with the humidity. 

FRIDAY

Temperatures are forecast to be in the 100s again up and down the East Coast. Vermont might get vague relief from an approaching very lame cold front that would hold temperatures down to the low 90s. Um, yay? We'll wait and see on that. 

I'm sort of making light of all this heat coming out way, but seriously, this will be dangerous. Nights will be very warm and muggy, offering little relief from the daytime torrid weather. This state of affairs goes on for at least a few days The cumulative effects of the hot air over days can kill vulnerable people .

Unfortunately deaths from the heat are already a foregone conclusion in the Midwest and East due to the extreme nature of the upcoming hot spell. Let's hope the victims don't include Vermonters. 

NEXT WEEKEND

A potential "cold snap"! By that I mean daytime temperatures would "only" reach the 80s to around 90 with continued rather high humidity.  

Overnight Rain Is Over, Now Onto The Showers, Thunderstorm Later Today

A patch of clearing skies over St. Albans, Vermont
at 5:45 a..m, but ou can just see shower clouds
over the tree line looking toward New York.
A burst of rain hit not long after this photo
was taken. If it clears up again later this 
morning, that would increase the chances 
of strong storms a little bit. 

 I'm up bright an early for a start-of-the day appointment, so let's get into our latest out of rain and storms. 

As expected, rain moved over Vermont last night. Through 5 a.m., it hadn't amounted to all that much in  northern Vermont. 

It appears most places up there had a quarter inch or less. Southern Vermont, as expected, did better, with many places receiving a half inch or more of rain.  

We are, of course,  not done with the showers and storms. There were a few scattered showers and downpours wandering around the region as of 5:30 a.m., but also some breaks in the clouds. 

Whether it stays more cloudier or sunnier it remains this morning will influence how wild, or not wild the weather will become this afternoon. The sunnier ir gets this morning, the more likely a few stars could become strong.

This isn't a perfect setup for severe storms. The alleged cold front coming in to spark the storms doesn't really have any cold air behind it. The lack of a temperature contrast might constrain storms a bit. But there is converging winds near the front, so that's why some thunderstorms might spark. 

The air also isn't all that humid, so there's a little less fuel for strong thunderstorms than if the air was really muggy. 

There is enough of a chance for strong storms that NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont under a level one out of five marginal risk for severe storms. That means we could have isolated instances of damaging winds. There's also a very slight risk of large hail, too. 

The best chances of strong storms for most of us would be a little earlier than is typical - roughly between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m.  The best chance of strong storms would be in the early afternoon. 

We also might have a couple scattered showers or non-severe rumbles of thunder lasting into the ever. 

Even though thunderstorms might have some brief downpours, I'm not really worried about flooding for this go-around.  

The next issue facing us is, well, summer. 

WEEKEND

Saturday and Sunday look like a typical summer weekend. It'll be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Saturday and low to mid 80s Sunday, with an odd 87 or 88 in the very warmest Banana Belt valleys. Humidity will be noticeable but not extreme. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will erupt over the mountain both days. Especially Saturday.  

Some of those might try to drift into the valleys, but they'll probably tend to fall apart as they do so. 

EARLY WEEK

Then we get into real heat. I don't know exactly how hot it will get, but hot enought. There's a good chance at least some of us will make it to 90 degrees. It will also be very humid, meaning the night will be stuffy. 

The very warm, or hot weather with the muggy air should last most if not all of next week

Another thing to consider: The heat will be courtesy of a big "heat dome" that will set up over the eastern United States. The center of this heat dome will a little to our west. That opens us up to what are know as "ridge runners."

Ridge runners are packets of severe thunderstorms that go up and over the northern edge of the heat domes. When they start moving southeastward along the front side of the heat dome, the storms can get very feisty, sometimes dangerous. 

We'll be in that spot next week. The first chance of a "ridge runner" would come later Tuesday or Tuesday night. We could have one or two  more later in the week.

There's absolutely no guarantee we'll be affected by a ridge runner. They might miss us or not develop at all. You can predict the conditions that could create them well in advance. But you can't really confirm one will form or hit you until the day of the event. 

And if we do, there's no guarantee we'll be hit by the severe parts of a ridge runner. But it's something to keep in the back of your mind if you don't like damaging storms. 

Rain Is Coming To Vermont Again, Could Be Heavy In Spots

Clouds blowing in from some showers near Plattsburgh,
New York were already beginning to fill the sky
over St. Albans, Vermont at 12:40 p.m. today.
There's a rising chance of showers, especially late
this afternoon and we're in for a wet night, with
more showers and storms Friday. 

I had internet problems this morning so I was unable to post earlier, but the glitch seems to have disappeared, so I'll do a noontime Vermont update today instead.

I thought yesterday would be the first day without rain in the Green Mountain State since June 16. 

But a couple raindrops landed on me in Enosburgh yesterday morning. And it looked like a shower or two clipped the extreme northeast corners of the  state in the afternoon. More rain is on the horizon

REST OF TODAY

Today has a good shot at being the ninth consecutive day with rain somewhere in the state.   

A couple showers or even a rumble of thunder could enter western Vermont as soon as this afternoon. Mostly later this afternoon, but I noticed a couple very small downpours had formed near Plattsburgh, New York as of 12:30 p.m. But a warm front attached to a weak area of low pressure that's now near Michigan. All of Vermont will get wet overnight and early tomorrow morning. 

The best guess for now is northern areas should get a quarter inch of rain or so. Central Vermont gets a third of an inch and souther areas are closer to three quarters of an inch. There will be a lot of exceptions  to this, as some heavier downpours and thunderstorms might be mixed in with all this. 

NOAA has central and southern Vermont in a marginal risk for flash flooding tonight because of the risk of heavy downpours from very late this afternoon through tonight. . If any flooding does happen, it will be isolated and probably quite minor.

FRIDAY

There should be something of a break in the action during the morning, when showers become generally lighter and much more widely scattered. Bur then a weather front enters the picture in the afternoon. I wouldn't go so far as to call it a cold front because the air behind it isn't really any colder than the air in front of it.

But a front is zone in which winds converge, and that will be enough to fire up some afternoon showers and thunderstorms Those showers and storms will be pretty widespread around Vermont, so almost everybody will get wet again during the afternoon and evening. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction center gives southern Vermont a marginal risk of severe storms, meaning one or two spots could see some damaging winds. 

As is always the case with thunderstorms, rainfall will be super variable Friday afternoon and evening. A few places might get a real gullywasher, enough to maybe erode some steep gravel driveways or roads in a couple spots. 

A handful of spots will get practically nothing, while many of us will just see some typical showers nd storms. 

SATURDAY AND BEYOND

Increasing heat and humidity is the story Saturday through the middle of next week. This weekend won't be too bad with highs in the low 80s amid moderate humidity. But that humidity will increase Monday through at least Wednesday. 

It's unclear how hot it will get. That depends on how many clouds, showers and storms are around. But warmer valleys have a shot at 90 degrees.  Even if doesn't get that hot, nights will be really stuffy due to the muggy air

Surprisingly Heavy Vermont Rainfall Raising Some Flood Concerns.

Just a few hours after the main band of strong 
thunderstorms departed on Thursday, the first in
a series of rain showers arrived that evening, as
seen here in St Albans. Several rounds of showers,
some heavy have come through since then. More
showers and possible downpours are
due today and Sunday.

An odd risk of some scattered flooding as developed in northern Vermont despite cool northwest winds that usually prevent that sort of thing. 

That big storm we had Thursday, the one that gave Vermont two tornadoes and other damaging wind storms, is  now lumbering around eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritime provinces. 

 The storm is sending bands of showers southeastward out of the Canadian Maritimes into mostly northern and central Vermont. 

Rain has been maldistributed in Vermont most of this month anyway. Northern Vermont, especially the Northeast Kingdom, has been getting lots of rain. The southeast corner of Vermont, which was still facing lingering dryness from last year's drought, has not gotten all that much rain at all.

During Thursday's storm, the Northeast Kingdom was drowned again. Several towns in north central and Northeast Vermont received more than two inches of rain from Thursday's storms. Meanwhile, the southeast corner of the state had some damaging thunderstorms Thursday, but they were quick hitters that only deposited a third to a half inch of rain. 

Yesterday, bands of rain, some of it heavy, sank slowly southward through the northern half of Vermont. Each individual shower in the band moved fast, but the showers were all following one another, like boxcars on a freight train, so surprisingly heavy rains fell. Southern Vermont got nothing.

Through midnight last night, Burlington has already received 4.3 inches of rain so far this month. The normal for the entire month of June is 4.26 inches, so we're already above normal for June. More rain fell early today. Some of it was heavy. 

Around 1:30 a.m. today, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington issued a flood warning  for much of Chittenden County, parts of Addison County, and the western slopes of the Green Mountains roughly between the Middlebury Snow Bowl an Smuggler's Notch due to a heavy period of overnight rain. 

The warning has since expired, and I haven't seen any flood reports yet, but I image some steep gravel roads or driveways might have suffered some damage.  

Usually, the amount of rain that falls in this type of weather situation with a west to northwest wind is quite light. But the disturbance rotating around the backside of that storm and into northern New England are pretty dynamic and energetic, and able to produce some locally heavy rains. 

TODAY

An interesting satellite photo shows a band of
heavy showers across north central Vermont Friday
while the south remained mostly clear. Those
showers produced locally heavy rain. 

This state of affairs will continue today. One area of showers was coming through northern Vermont as of 7:30 this morning. 

It contained brief downpours but the area of rain wasn't big or intense enough to set off any flooding. But it kept wetting the soils and helping rivers stay elevated. 

If we get more downpours today, I don't expect any serious river flooding, but there could be some local washouts, erosion things like that. 

The larger rivers are running high, which should make you think twice about taking a kayaking trip along those waterways. 

More disturbances will rotate through today. It'll be rather cloudy, especially north, but enough sun will get through to increase the instability in the air. This will create numerous showers and garden variety thunderstorms, but some of them might contain heavy rain. 

In general northern Vermont will see between a third and three quarters of an inch of rain today. But places in the mountainous terrain mostly north of Route 2 could see locally more than that, which could trigger isolated instances of flash flooding today. 

Highs will only be in the upper 60s and low 70s under the clouds and showers.

SUNDAY

Same old, same old. More rounds of showers and storms, mostly central and north. Highs will be a little warmer with temperatures getting into the 70s for most places. It'll still be a few degrees cooler than average. 

Once again, some showers or storms could produce some downpours in the northern mountains, so isolated flash flooding is possible again. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't worry about flash flooding tomorrow, but the ground is so saturated in the north that it could happen. Like today, if any flooding happens, it will be very localized. This weekend will be no means be a replay of the horrible summer floods in 2023 and 2024.

Rainfall this morning through Sunday evening will range from two inches or a little more in a couple spots in northern Vermont to less than a tenth of an inch near the Massachusetts border. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor lists an area of Vermont south and east of a line from Bennington to roughly White River Junction as abnormally dry, so the rain misses down there are annoying. But there's hope.

MONDAY

A small, fast moving but very wet little storm is forecast to scoot by to the south of Vermont on Monday. There's still some questions about how far north its heavy rain will extend. But chances are far southern Vermont could receive a really good soaking out of this. 

If everything works out right, Bennington and Windham counties could receive a couple inches of rain ou of this little storm. 

Amounts will taper off the further north you go.  This could change, but central Vermont could get moderate amounts of rain out of Monday's system. The sopping wet north would only get a little bit of rain. Which is great because that scenario would mean no risk of additional flooding. 

Long range forecasts can never be trusted, but predictions through the end of the month in indicate a slow warming trend and frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms through June 30 

Likely Woodstock, Vermont Tornado To Be Investigated Today, More Inclement, But Not Violent Weather Due

Trees ripped apart on a Woodstock, Vermont hillside
after a likely tornado hit on Thursday. 
Photo from WCAX via Facebook

 Thanks to the fact that everyone has a camera and local TV stations are pretty aggressive when it comes to covering rare, violent weather in Vermont, we're now pretty confident that whatever hit Woodstock, Vermont yesterday was probably a tornado. 

Drone video from Henry's Weather Service shows trees snapped off halfway up, and many other trees felled in varying directions, which are telltale signs of a tornado. 

Video obtained from Tiffany LaRocque taken from inside Mountain Creamery in Woodstock shows intense winds and rain on the edge of the tornado. Trees were falling and the parking lot was full of vehicles as people traveling along Route 4 took refuge there as driving conditions became impossible. 

About 100 people were affected by the probably tornado on the western side of town, WPTZ reports. Thankfully, we have no reports of injuries, which is pleasantly surprising, given how much traffic there usually is on Route 4 where the probably tornado crossed. 

The tornado missed the historic central village of Woodstock, which is a world-renowned tourist hub. Initial reports indicate only minor tree damage in the village center. 

Reports are that National Weather Service meteorologists from South Burlington will head to Woodstock, probably today, to confirm whether this was a tornado.  If that analysis happens, we'll learn how strong the tornado was and how long and wide the path was.

Judging from the drone video, the path of the tornado looked a little longer than most Vermont tornadoes. Twisters in the Green Mountain State tend to touch down and lift almost immediately. 

I'm not sure on the strength of the tornado, but judging from photos and that drone video, I'd say it was an EF-1, which would mean winds of 86 to 110 mph. 

Once the National Weather Service offers a report on the Woodstock storm, I'll write up a new post with the updates.

Heading east from Woodstock, there was additional severe damage. In Quechee, Vermont, a row of large willow trees on a golf course fell. They all went down in the same direction, suggesting straight line wind damage. 

There was also extensive damage in Hartford, Vermont, where a lot of trees fell. 

Nearly 4,000 Vermont homes and businesses were still without power this morning, mostly in southeastern Vermont. Londonderry had 1,100 of those outages, suggesting something nasty rolled through that town yesterday. 

This morning, other trouble spots popped up in northern Vermont, near the Canadian border. The Barton River at Coventry and the Missisquoi river near North Troy were at minor flood stage. Heavy rains yesterday fell atop soils soaked by very heavy rains that hit up there on Sunday. 

We had reports of a lot of street flooding Thursday in Newport and Middlebury. Probably other towns experienced that, too. 

Rainfall was quite heavy in many spots. Burlington had 1.11 inches of rain. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 1.54 inches. A full report on how much rain fell in specific towns will become available later this morning. 

WHAT'S AHEAD?

Thankfully, we're done with the violent weather at least for awhile, but conditions will be unsettled and wet at times. Northern Vermont in particular is in for some showery weather this weekend. 

The out of season, strong low pressure system that gave Vermont the rough weather yesterday is meandering through Quebec. It's rotating little disturbances through here and will continue to do so through the weekend. 

That means frequent bursts of rain,  especially north. Total rainfall through Sunday night will be near an inch over the northern Green Mountains. In most valley towns north of Route 2,  a half to three quarters of an inch will come down between now and Monday morning.   

The rainfall will taper to a quarter inch in central Vermont and less than a tenth of an inch in far southeast Vermont. A  few garden variety thunderstorms and downpours will probably mix in, so a few towns will get more rain than the rest of Vermont as a result. 

A few daily details: 

Today

Mostly cloudy and breezy with west to southwest winds gusting to 25 or 20 mph. Most of the afternoon showers and garden variety thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be north of Route 2, but some will drift into central Vermont by very late afternoon or the first half of tonight. A few storms might have briefly heavy downpours, but not enough to cause any flooding or anything like that. 

Highs should reach the low and mid 70s in most valleys

Saturday

Probably the worst day of the bunch. Northern areas will see very little sun and frequent showers. Southern valleys will see some sun, but also a risk of a shower. It will be quite cool for the season with highs in the 60s north, with low to mid 70s southern valley floors. 

Hikers should be aware that summits will be wet and cold tomorrow with wind chills in the 40s. If you insist on hiking, it won't be a summertime activity. Dress accordingly. 

Sunday

More showers and garden variety thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low 70s, give or take. 

 

UFC Fight At White House Prompts Weather Fight With Forecasters

The big UFX fight outside the White House Sunday
Night. Photo from the Associated Press

Donald Trump's weird, silly UFC fights on the South Lawn of the White House went on last night despite threatening, oppressive, buggy weather. 

The fight was postponed an hour to 9 p.m. because of storm threats, and before the match, attendees wandered around in direct sunshine in humid, 90 degree heat, so I'm sure some people were dangerously dehydrated.

A second fight on Sunday went on between weather forecasters and White House spin doctors and trolls. 

Whether or not you found the whole spectacle an embarrassment, The Weather Channel, echoing other meteorological people, had this to say on the social medial platform X:

"UFC Freedom 250 is facing a chaotic weather setup on the White House South Lawn, with a 60% chance of thunderstorms heavy down-ours and wind gusts up to 34 mph threatening to delay the outdoor fights."

The Weather Channel post on X continued:

"On top of the storm risk, brutal D.C. humidity is driving a triple-digit heat index alongside massive swarms of mosquitoes and gnats that fighters will have to battle inside the cage, While the venue's massive 92-foot overhang will keep the octagon dry, a single lightning strike within eight miles will trigger an automatic 30-minute freeze on the entire event."

The White House "Rapid Response account on X responded with the following:

"This event is about celebrating America's unmatched greatness after 250 years - which apparently doesn't sit well with the friendless loser who wrote this bullshit clickbait headline. Rain or shine, we're celebrating out great country no matter what. GOD BLESS AMERICA!" With a little flag emoji.

I'm not sure how a cage match celebrates American, but whatevs. 

But, despite The Weather Channel's typical ominous end of the world prose, they were basically right. There were a lot of storms near Washington Sunday, but most of the worst ones went north and south of the nation's Capitol 

And there was no question the heat was awful. The high temperature reached a miserable 96 degrees with a heat index just about nudging 100 degrees.

As the fights got under way, it was still 79 degrees with a heat index in the low 80s

Still, the MAGA crowd was seething that The Weather Channel decided to.....forecast the weather. 

One MAGA person in X responded to the White House "Rapid Response" shit post wrote, "I had no idea the Weather Channel hated America so much that they were willing to lie about the weather conditions in hopes of deterring the American people of getting together for this amazing event."

Which is typical. Gaslight people into thinking it was a pleasant evening. I guess forecasters should have lied and said it would be sunny and 70 with low humidity just to keep the Orange King happy on his 80th birthday. 

Other, somewhat more sane people took The Weather Channel's side, laughing at the MAGA uproar over a simple summer weather forecast. 

"Imagine getting this emotional because The Weather Channel checked the forecast. They didn't insult American They reported humidity."

The real scary posts were the ones that said God intervened to split the storms so they didn't ruin the cage match. 

As if God had nothing better to do than ensure a sagging, tired orange makeup addict could watch sweaty men fight from the comforts of the White House. 

Thunderstorms are naturally hit and miss. They pretty much missed the big UFC event. Lucky for the fans, not important to the rest of us. 

 

Storms, Heat Weren't As Bad As They Could Have Been, Cooling Trend To Start

One of the few strong-ish thunderstorms that developed
late Friday afternoon, see here over the northern
Green Mountains after dumping torrential rains
on Enosburg Falls. The storm weakened shortly
after this photo was taken, Severe weather didn't;t
really develop as forecast Friday, but it sure
was hot and humid and steamy. 

 Both the heat and the storms in Vermont on Friday didn't quite measure up to forecasts, but that's really OK. The alternative would have been worse. 

Storms tried to get going west of the Adirondacks early Friday morning and struggled as they moved east. They never did blossom until they hit the western slopes of the Green Mountains in central and northern Vermont. 

It looks like the mountains added a little lift to the atmosphere to strengthen the storms. The strongest storm developed a little northeast of Burlington. It was enough to knock over at least one tree in Jericho. That was the only report we've seem of a strong to severe storm.

Sure, some storms  had torrential rains. I noticed some minor street flooding in Enosburg Falls, for instance.. But it was certainly not a severe weather day. And many places remained dry. Here in St. Albans, we got a sprinkle, which was from the developing storm that eventually drenched Enosburg. 

Once the storms got into eastern Vermont, they weakened again. So it really wasn't the severe storm day we feared.

 A little disturbance  ahead of last night's alleged cold front was ultimately responsible for the storms that did form. The "pre-frontal trough," as it was called, is common ahead of summertime cold fronts. 

Clouds from that disturbance kept temperatures a couple degrees cooler than forecast. As if anybody noticed, as it was still hot and humid and gross.  (At any time yesterday, my sunglasses would fog up   if I stepped out of my air conditioned truck into our steamy atmosphere).

But it could have been a little worse.  But Burlington reached 92 degrees, not the record breaking 96 that was forecast. 

Montpelier did manage to break its record high for the dates, reaching 89 degrees. The old record was 88 set in 1949. But the hiogh temperature fell a little short of the predicted 93 degrees.

Now on to the forecast, and there are a couple more bumps in the weather road despite some really nice weather thrown in.

TODAY

It's a little hard to notice, but we're now in the "cool" air. Dawn broke with sunrise temperatures in the 60s across Vermont, with even a few upper 50s thrown in. It was warm, but still the coolest morning since Wednesday. 

Today itself will actually be a delight. The humidity will be lower than the past two days and temperatures will soar into the 80s with sunny skies. A beautiful day for just about anything outdoors, but still quite warm. Watch yourself if you're doing physical activity.

SUNDAY

Sunday afternoon and evening will bring on one of the bumps in our upcoming weather road. A pretty strong cold front will approach. You'll notice increasing humidity and increasing clouds as we head into the afternoon. We have two potential problems with this cold front. 

The first is the risk of severe weather. As is usually the case, just like we saw on Friday, we might not know for sure whether severe storms develop or not until shortly before they're scheduled. So far, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the best chances of strong or severe storms down in the Mid-Atlantic states with just a marginal risk in Vermont. 

But - as noted - the forecast could shift. Stay tuned to this bat channel for updates. If we do see anything severe, it would be in the late afternoon or early evening. 

The other problem is heavy rain and the risk of a few local flash flood problems, mostly north.  This won't be anything widespread, but a few spots could get bullseyed by a series of heavy downpours. NOAA has northern Vermont north of Route 2 under a marginal risk of flash floods tomorrow, 

A handful of places could get one, two, even three inches of rain in a short period of time. But most of us should see much less. In general, most places north will see about a half inch of rain, give or take ad the south should see a little less than half an inch. 

Again, this forecast could change and the amount of rain everyone gets should be super variable. Like yesterday's sprinkles in St. Albans and downpours in adjacent Sheldon. 

NEXT WEEK

It'll be much cooler, that's for sure. And mostly nice. Skies Monday and Tuesday should be at least partly sunny. Broader valleys would be mostly sunny. Highs should only reach the 70s with lows in the comfortable 50s.  Delightful unless you prefer the tropical heat we had yesterday. 

By Wednesday, showers could creep in ahead of our next big bump in the road. Thursday could turn rather stormy. 

Low pressure systems and storms are generally weak in the summer. Sure, you can get wild thunderstorms along otherswise wimpy cold fronts and near lame areas of low pressure, but the actual storm systems on the weather maps are usually pretty feeble this time of year.  

However, a strong storm for June looks like it would head at least sort of this way for Thursday. It's too soon to know exactly what this means for us, but depending on where the storm goes we could get quite a bit of rain, gusty non-thunderstorm winds or strong thunderstorms. Or maybe even nothing remarkable at all. Stay tuned!

Humidity,, Storms To Hassle Vermont For Next Three Days

Irises are a staple of June gardens in Vermont. This group
of purple irises in St. Albans was awaiting the 
expected showers and storms that are likely today'
through Friday. High humidity arrives, too. 

 Vermont's spell of spectacular June weather is over, at least for now. 

Tuesday was another winner.  A refreshingly cool start to the day yielded to highs in the 80s under sunny skies. Humidity was low. Perfect for whatever you were doing outdoors. 

Today through Friday, not so much. 

We woke up to clouds and haze and humidity that was beginning to creep upwards. As of 6:45 a.m, showers were already lurking in the Adirondacks. Humidity, clouds and showers, along with some sun, is the game for awhile around here.

Lets do the details: 

TODAY:

A small disturbance is working its way into the region from the west, along with a warm front of sorts. The result is a rising chance of showers, with a few thunderstorms rolled into the mess as we go through the day. The best chances of rain are late this afternoon and this evening. Despite the showers, we should make it to near 80 degrees today.

As is always the case with showers and storms, rainfall will be super variable, with one town on the road getting drenched and the next town over only getting a little.  

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center still has the interior Northeast, including Vermont in a marginal risk zone for flash floods today. That takes into account the risk for locally torrential downpours. That said, the overall risk for flash flooding today and tonight in Vermont is thankfully pretty low. 

But in general, forecasters think a half to three quarters of an inch is in the cards north, with maybe a quarter inch south by tomorrow morning.

THURSDAY

This will be the "nicest" of the three days of humidity we're focusing on. But most of you aren't going to love it. By tomorrow, dew points, a measure of how humid it feels out there, will continue to rise, reaching the upper 60s to near 70 by afternoon. That's oppressive. Since this will be the first real humid spell of the season, we're not used to it yet. So it will feel worse.

If you must work your butt off  outside, maybe don't work your butt off quite so much. And drink a lot of fluids. It can get dangerous. 

We'll have another smattering of showers and thunderstorms dancing around the landscape in the afternoon and evening, too. They probably won't as widespread as the stuff we'll get later today. Probably just half of us will get wet. 

The thunderstorms that get going tomorrow afternoon won't be severe, but a few of them will send a bucket full of torrential rain where they do hit. When it's as humid as we expect, you're going to get bursts of rain like that. 

FRIDAY

This will be the worst day of the stretch. It will be the hottest day of the bunch, and have the greatest threat of a few strong storms. 

There's still debate on how hot the actual temperature will be. If there's a lot of clouds and showers around morning and early to mid afternoon, we might not make it to 90 degrees. Sunshine will bring us to those 90 degree temperatures. 

Either way, we'll roast. Because of that humidity.  Dew points will stay in the upper 60s so hot. So hot, that the National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory Friday for the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York, and western Rutland County. 

The heat index Friday between noon and 8 p.m. could be around 95 degrees. The rest of Vermont doesn't quite fit the criteria for a heat advisory, but trust me, it will be plenty uncomfortable statewide 

The next problem is the expected rising chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. With a cold front starting to approach, we might have enough atmospheric energy to produce a couple strong or isolated severe storms. 

So far, it looks like the best dynamics for severe weather will be just to our west in New York, but the forecast will be adjusted as needed.

COOLING TREND

Luckily, the heat and humidity won't last forever. A series of cold fronts will come through, each one dropping our temperatures a bit. 

Friday night's cold front looks like it might give us a warm, but less humid Saturday. After that, we'll have a chance of showers each day heading into early next week, but daytime temperatures will only be in the 70s by Monday and Tuesday.  

Spring Is The United States Storm Season: Dramatic Videos Prove It

Damage from an extreme hailstorm in Springfield, Missouri
in April. Video of the storm is in this post, Photo from 
Springfield Daily Citizen via Facebook

As we all know, spring is the tornado and storm season in the United States. That always leads to some pretty dramatic videos.   

We've got some of them here to let you gawk at Ma Nature at her angriest. Let's get right to it: 

During an outbreak of tornadoes on April 17, the town of Lena, Illinois was hit hard. The tornado was seriously wrapped in rain, so you couldn't see the actual funnel. 

And the parts of town that weren't' actually hit by the tornado were hammered by a wall of intense rain and wind that did its own damage .

The tornado itself was an EF-2 with top winds of 130 mph. 

The video is a web cam that recorded the maelstrom moving into the city. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Also, there's another Lena web cam that has a different perspective basically overlooking the entire town. Click on this link to view that one. 

In our next video, we see the benefits of obeying the safety rules when a tornado seems imminent. 

Two women were keeping track of a tornadic storm on their phones as they sat in the kitchen of a Minnesota home. 

When the wind suddenly picked up. The women quickly decided to run downstairs, with their two dogs in tow.  See in the video what happened next. Spoiler: The women made the right decision. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

On April 23, a massive tornado, an EF-4 with top winds of 170 mph, struck part of northern Oklahoma. It hit the southern edge of Vance Air Force Base before sliding along the southeast corner of Enid, Oklahoma.  It wiped out about 40 homes in a subdivision, but miraculously didn't kill anybody. There were ten relatively minor injuries.

The video below shows that as bad as this tornado was, things would have been much, much worse, had its path been the same, except displaced a little bit to the northwest. Enid is a city with a population of about 51,000. Had it gone through the middle of town, the destruction would have been extreme 

The video is a time lapse from a web cam that overlooks downtown Enid. You can see the tornado come  in from the right side of the view.  It eventually gets lost in an area of torrential rain, but it was still causing its damage even when it was invisible in the rain. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Springfield, Missouri was hammered by a huge hailstorm on April 28. Some of the stones were at least softball sized, so you can imagine the damage. Sadly, the hail killed an emu at the local zoo. An unknown number of cars were damaged or destroyed, but the number of vehicles wrecked had to be in the thousands.  

At the Springfield-Branson National Airport, hundreds of cars left in the parking lot by people who flew to wherever were trashed, with busted out windows and huge dents. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"Some passengers had to be buses around 100 miles away to the airport in Bentonville, Arkansas because rental cars were damaged. (Airport Public Information Officer Ren) Luebbering said airport staff spent three hours covering the most badly damaged vehicles with donated tarps. 'We think we put 300 or 400 tarps out there on cars," Luebbering said. The airport warned online, 'Expect damage to your vehicle."

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Here's another view of the chaotic Springfield, Missouri hail storm. Again, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 On April 28, an EF-3 tornado caused a lot of damage in Mineral Wells, Texas. The tornado was wrapped in rain and hard to see. In this video. people in a car inadvertently drive to very near the edge of the tornado. The wind is howling on this freeway and debris fills the air. Pretty scary! As always, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

During another round of severe weather in the South,  storm chaser Daniel Shaw was driving near Monterey, Louisiana. They didn't see any tornadoes, but the lightning really put on a show. The video shows plenty of lot of lightning strike and Shaw kept saying they are not getting out of the vehicle. 

The end of the video is what really shocks, literally. Shaw is parked in a Family Dollar parking lot when the building gets hit by lightning. Let's 

 As always click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: 

Storm chaser Aaron Rigsby's videos often make an appearance in these video highlight posts I occasionally issue. This is not technically one of Rigsby's videos but he stars in it. 

That same batch of lightning barrages affected Rigsby. He was chasing severe storms in Mississippi when lightning struck the Toyota Rav 4 as he sped down a highway. The car is toast.  Rigsby said he is OK, but felt the buzz of electricity when it struck.  He got into another storm chaser's car to continue the hunt for tornadoes.

Inside Edition has the story. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on this. 

So here's something different: A time lapse of an enormous iceberg passing by the town of Ilulissat, Greenland on April 13.  Looks like a mountain kind of saying, "never mind me, just passing through, I'll be out of here in no time. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.