Repeated Rain Chances Keep Heading South Of Vermont

This is subject to change, but this is an guess as to how
much rain will fall between now and Saturday morning
As you can see northern areas largely miss out.
All the good soakers are going mostly to our south

 We could surely use more rain in Vermont. A series of weak, but very wet disturbance are about to turn much of the Northeast soggy. But the Green Mountain State looks like it will largely miss out. 

Southern Vermont might still eke out a decent wetting over the next several days. But unless there's an abrupt change in the forecast, northern Vermont will miss out. 

The first disturbance came in yesterday with ominous afternoon clouds in the north which amounted to......about three raindrops. 

It seems like days in advance, we think we're going to get a soaking, then it turns out not to be a big deal.Thi

Let's walk through the forecast;

TODAY

The warmest day of the week. Then gloom overhead should break up somewhat to become a variably cloudy day. Highs should get well into the 70s, with some banana belt warm valleys touching 80 degrees. One of summer's last gasps. 

THURSDAY

We're in a squeeze play between a front to the south that will have a little disturbance riding along it and a cold front coming in from the  north. 

This setup looks like it will create some rain in the south. But questions remain as to how far north this might get. Varying computer models disagree so we might have some surprises. For now. maybe a quarter to a third of an inch of rain might come down in southern Vermont. That would gradually taper off to a trace to a tenth of an inch north. 

Again, results may vary. 

We're into September now, so we're more likely to see just plain rain rather than scattered showers and thunderstorms. So, probably no thunder tomorrow. Highs should make it into the low and mid 70s for most of us so not bad. 

FRIDAY

We'll squeeze in a classic autumn day. We should have sunshine with highs in the 60s to near 70. A brisk northwest breeze will add a chilly bite to the air. Humidity will plummet, says the National Weather Service, setting us up for a chilly night with frost possible in colder places again

SATURDAY

Dawn Saturday is looking a little colder than the nippy one we experienced yesterday.  Just a couple degrees makes a big difference on whether you'll see frost or not. Only one or two isolated areas had frost yesterday. Saturday morning, this frost might hit a few more of the colder hollows of northern and central Vermont. 

I imagine some places might end up falling under a frost advisory. Stay tuned for updates.  The rest of the day should be more typical September. Highs in the 60s with maybe some increasing clouds. 

The next rainy system looks like it would arrive Saturday night and Sunday. Early indications are this one could, once again, go by to our south, but there's plenty of time for that forecast to change

Cool Autumnal Day In Vermont, Then Rapid Weather Changes, But No Huge Extremes

Thunderstorms visible west of St. Albans just after
sunset Sunday. At my house, we had only sprinkles,
but brief downpours hit just a mile to the north.

Changeable weather seems to be the story in Vermont lately.

Sunday was a great example. We started out with early morning rain. Then we had a delightfully sunny and warm day, especially in western Vermont. Then some downpours and thunder rumbled across far northern and southern Vermont in the evening.  

That changeable theme will continue the rest of the week. The switches in the weather might not be as rapid as on Sunday, but it still will be classic "If you don't like the weather in Vermont wait a minute, it will change. "

Let's get into it. 

TODAY

The cold front swept through overnight, and early this morning it was beginning to whoosh in cool, autumnal air. Dawn temperatures across Vermont were still mild, in the 50s to near 60. But gusty northwest winds won't allow readings to rise much, despite a lot of sunshine.

High temperatures for most of Vermont will get into the 60s as the northwest breezes continue.

It was still cloudy early this morning across much of northern Vermont, especially over and east of the Green Mountains. That will eventually clear up. The Northeast Kingdom won't get the sunshine until we get into this afternoon. That will keep high temperatures in some towns up there only in the 50s. 

The winds will die off later this afternoon and this evening. 

That sets us up for what will yet again become the coldest night of year so far. 

TUESDAY

We'll start the day with temperatures in the 38 to 45 degree range. Most of us, anyway. But the cold hollows of the Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom could see a frost early Tuesday morning. It'll be a little cooler than Saturday morning, so the cold spots that barely missed out on a frost could get one. 

A frost advisory is in effect for far northern New Hampshire. So far, there's not advisory for any part of Vermont, because the frost isn't expected to be widespread. It's possible an advisory might be issued for the NEK and Adirondacks later today.

South winds will increase, just as they did on Saturday. So the cold morning will quickly transition to a fairly mild afternoon with highs reaching to within a few degrees either side of 70. Clouds will increase, too, but we're not in for any real rain. Maybe some isolated light showers Tuesday night. 

WEDNESDAY

A warmer day. Cloud and isolated showers should break up in the afternoon for sunshine. Highs should get into the 70s to possibly near 80. 

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

The weather is going to quickly switch back and forth late in the week and the weekend. A fast west to east to air flow will fling weather disturbances and bright, sunny high pressure systems. That means we'll go back and forth between showers and sunshine. 

It's so hard to know exactly when the showers will hit and when the sunshine will prevail. It's also hard to say how much rain we'll get with each little disturbance. 

Early guesses are showers will come through Thursday, with sunshine Friday and more showers on Saturday and maybe Sunday.  But that could shift as updates come in.

Frustrating for sure if you have late week plans, but that's the trouble with early autumn. But at least we have no extreme weather coming up. 

No extreme heat, no extreme growing season-ending cold, no fading hurricanes flooding our streams, no wind storms, no severe thunderstorms. We get to enjoy the tranquility of September 

September 11 Weather Was Eerily Similar To 25 Years Ago; Coolest Morning This Fall, Heavy Rain To Miss Vermont

On September 11, 2001 Hurricane Erin was moving northward
 500 miles off the East Coast. Had a cold front arrived a 
day later, the hurricane might have hit the East Coast.
And if it did, would it have prevented the terrorist 
attack?  We can only guess. 

The weather on Saturday, September 11, 2026 was eerily similar to that of that tragic day 25 years ago. 

It was gorgeous, sunny, a bit breezy with some of the first hints of autumn coolness in the air. 

I don't mean to trivialize that horrible day a quarter century ago, and please don't take it that way. But although the weather yesterday was almost exactly the same  as September 11, 2001, the weather set up was very different than it was 25 years ago. 

And the weather situation that terrible day brings up some big what ifs.

Let me explain: 

On September 10, 2001 a cold front swept through the northeastern United States. It caused some heavy thunderstorms in New York City.  Artist Monika Bravo took photos of the dramatic skies through windows on the 92nd floor.  These were just about the last photos of a view from inside the iconic twin towers.

That cold front helped shove Hurricane Erin away from the East Coast. It was about 500 miles offshore during the September 11 attacks.  Hurricanes moving northward off the East Coast feature sinking air outside the western flank of the storms. Sinking air causes clear skies. Which is the main reason why New York City had such clear skies that September day. 

It all makes you wonder what would have happened if that cold front came a day later.  If the cold front was late, Hurricane Erin might have gone up the East Coast instead. A New York City hurricane would have been bad, but not nearly as bad as the terrorist attack.  

Would the hurricane have postponed the attack?  Long enough for law enforcement to get wind of the plot and stop it?  We'll never know. 

TODAY

The clear skies here in Vermont and in New York City yesterday had nothing to do with hurricanes. It was just a cool, clear high pressure system moving into the Northeast. 

That brisk high pressure system brought Vermont the coolest air of the season so far. It got down to at least 47 degrees in Burlington early today, ending a 98-day streak with temperatures continuously above 50 degrees. I haven't done a complete review, but it appears to be the second longest such streak on record. The only longer streak I could immediately find was 106 days in 2023

Elsewhere in Vermont, most places had low temperatures this morning in the low 40s. Lyndonville was down to 38 degrees. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York, got down to 31 degrees. That makes me think that the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom might have had a light frost. Tis the season.

The cold high pressure is moving off to the east now. That'll set up some south winds. Combined with sunshine, that should boost this afternoon's temperatures well into the 70s. Another gorgeous September day.

SUNDAY

Vermont still needs a nice, soaking rain. And it's going to rain Sunday into Monday. But most of us won't have a soaker. 

A small, wet storm is prompting flood alerts in the Mid-Atlantic states today. That wet system will dump heavy rain around New York City and southern New England tonight and early Sunday. The three southern New England states look like they'll get at least an inch or two of rain. 

This will brush far southern Vermont. Places like Bennington and Brattleboro could get at least a half inch of rain out of this. That early morning rain could reach as far as the Canadian border, but up there, it will hardly amount to anything at all. Maybe a tenth of an inch of rain if they're lucky. 

Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching from the west with its own batch of showers and thunderstorms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont in a marginal risk of severe storms. 

Those storms depend on whether skies manage to partly clear in the late morning and afternoon. If it does clear up, a few storms could get a bit strong. If it stays cloudy, it'll just be showers with maybe a rumble of thunder.

Whatever happens, it'll be pretty warm, with highs well into the 70s to near 80s. The showers will continue into Sunday evening. 

Though rainfall will be variable, with maybe a few spots getting a good soaking. But most of us should receive less than a half inch of rain. Many of us should only see a quarter inch of rain.  It's still not too late for the forecast to change, so we'll see.

MONDAY

Another big, brisk high pressure system, almost a carbon copy of Saturdays, will blow in on Monday.  It'll be a sunny, cool, breezy day.  It'll stay  under 70 degrees everywhere except maybe the lower Connecticut River valley. 

TUESDAY

It'll start quite cool, even a little cooler than it was this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if the coldest hollows have some frost, but most of us shouldn't worry, as lows for most of Vermont will range from 38 to 45 degrees. The usual patchy fog will sock in the river valleys. 

The afternoon will warm up into the low 70s.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

We're still looking at the fast air flow across the northern United States. So the forecast gets difficult, as timing fronts and high pressure systems is tricky.  The first front, Tuesday night, looks like something of a nothing burger, with light showers at most. Beyond that, it's a roll of the dice. 

Changeable Vermont Weather Coming Up But Questions On HOW It Will Change

Henry the Weather Dog sploots down
in the shade, resting for a bit while
playing at the dog park yesterday. Henry
expects more sunshine but cooler
weather on his trip to the park today.

We're starting out or Friday with mostly clear skies, except for some lingering clouds near the Canadian border.  

Those clouds should break up a little bit as we go through the day. The blue skies will be dotted by a few pretty clouds much of their day. 

September usually brings big bubbles of high pressure drifting by. Those feature spells of bright, sunny, cool weather, interspersed with cloudy periods. Those are the cold fronts that separate the big bubbles of high pressure.

The problem is teasing out the timing of everything, and that's going to be the problem this week. The cool high pressure systems from Canada will compete with attempts by humid, warmer air making attempts to rain on us. 

Let's parse it out.

TODAY

The easy part of the forecast.  We'll have a gorgeous day. Mostly sunny skies and highs within a few degrees either side of 70. Cool breezes in northern Vermont will perhaps make you want to reach for the fleece jacket or hoodie, if you spend time in the shade.

SATURDAY

Very frequently now, we'll have new "coldest mornings of the year so far."  We have a shot at that around dawn tomorrow. We'll start with temperatures in the 40s, with plenty of low and mid 40s away from Lake Champlain.  A few of the coldest spots in the Northeast Kingdom will probably get into the upper 30s. 

Places near Lake Champlain will probably stay near 50. Dense fog will lace the river valleys. 

During the day, south winds will pick up, boosting temperatures well into the 70s. The winds could get a little gusty on and near Lake Champlain, so it might be a little tricky for boats on the lake. 

In southern Vermont, clouds will begin to increase as a weak but wet storm moves up the Eastern Seaboard. 

SUNDAY

It looks like the weak storm with its relatively heavy rain will pass south of Vermont, passing through southern New England. Clouds will cover Vermont. Meanwhile, a cold front will be coming at us from the west. 

Rain will overspread southern Vermont Saturday night and Sunday morning. There could be a half inch or more of rain in Bennington and Windham counties. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe storms in much of Vermont, suggesting there could be isolated instances of damaging winds. However, with all the clouds around, it's still doubtful we'll see any real thunderstorms. 

The cold front is most likely to produce rain in northern Vermont. In the end, northern and southern Vermont should get at least a decent wetting, and central Vermont might slip through between the two areas of rain and get little. 

This is iffy, so expect changes in the forecast. Bottom line: Not a really nice day, but how that will play out still has question marks. 

MONDAY

Another big bubble of high pressure looks like it will come in with mostly clear, cool weather. Monday will hopefully be a carbon copy of Saturday. We shall see.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

We'll be near the battleground between those cool, big high pressure systems from Canada, and the lingering hot, humid weather in the southern half of the U.S.  That torrid summer weather is really hanging tough, odd for September, but we should see little if any of it. 

Instead, we'll be prone to periods of rain as weather disturbances ride along the border between the cool autumn air to the north and the hot, humid air to the south. 

I'm not sure, but chances are much of the rain could pass to our south. But, if we get lucky, we could also see at least one soaking rain, which would be nice. No promises there, though 

It's possible the humid air could sneak in briefly, but if it does, it won't last long.  Updates to next week's forecasts will seem constant, and we might not know exactly what kind of weather we'll have until the day before the weather actually hits. 

Another Sign Of Autumn This Morning, Then Quick Blip Of Humidity, Rain

Henry the Weather Dog at the dog park in
St. Albans, Yesterday. The sun was out at
the moment this photo was taken, but
under clouds and with gusty north winds
it actually felt chilly at times. Autumn
is definitely showing itself. 

For the first time since maybe early June, I felt chilly for awhile Sunday afternoon.   

The highlight of the day for Henry the Weather Dog is a trip to the dog park here in St. Albans. I brought him there in my usual summer uniform: Shorts, a t-shirt, sneakers. 

It was 70 degrees out at best. Warm enough for that outfit. But the sun occasionally disappeared behind large, poofy clouds, so that cooled the air occasionally.  The wind also blows hard at the dog park, as it's funneled between Hard'ack Hill to the west and French Hill to the east. 

The result: I felt chilly. 

I'm not whining. It's not as if I was dying of hypothermia. Still, I took my goosebumps as a sign we are sinking deeper into autumn. 

And it was cool this morning too. It was 50 degrees in Banana-Belt Burlington this morning. It got down to 41 in Bennington and 42 in Morrisville and Lyndonville. 

The arrival of autumn comes in waves, the cool air interspersed with periods of warmer, even summery weather. So the vaguely nippy air we just had will relax into warmth. Let's get into the details.

TODAY

Temperatures have started rocketing upward and will peak well into the 70s this afternoon.  Maybe close to 80 in the warmest valleys. Henry's trip to the dog park today will not result in any shivers today. Sunshine will reign supreme. Get outside and enjoy!

TUESDAY

An extremely weak cold front should drift down from Quebec early in the morning. It'll probably bring a band of clouds. Maybe even a widely scattered light shower or sprinkle in the north. But the sun should partially make an appearance in the afternoon. It'll be a couple degrees cooler than today, but still in the 70s

WEDNESDAY

The next weather system will start to come at us from the west. South winds will pick up, and those south winds will pick up some humidity from the Gulf of Mexico and throw it at us. It'll start to feel sticky, and we'll have a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. 

A brief spell of very humid air will help blossom a period of rain, maybe briefly heavy overnight Wednesday/Thursday. There could even be a downpour or two. But the rain will rocket through here so fast Wednesday night it won't have a chance to give us all that much. 

We might see over a half inch of rain in northern Vermont, maybe a quarter to a half in central Vermont and the Champlain Valley, and less than a quarter inch far southeast. Of course, there might be adjustments to the forecast.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY

September in Vermont is famous for its spells of delightful weather. Sunshine, low humidity. With few springtime gnats or mosquitoes buzzing around and no mud underfoot. 

We might have a couple lingering showers Thursday, especially in the morning. Humidity will probably linger in the morning, too, but the air should start to feel more fresh in the afternoon. It'll be warm, as it could get up to 80 degrees or so. Not near any records by any stretch of the imagination, but a little warm for September. 

As it looks now, Friday and Saturday look delightful. Sunshine, maybe a few puffy afternoon clouds, with afternoon highs in the 70s. Both mornings will feature dense fog in the river valleys. That's also classic September weather. 

It's possible some light showers come back into the picture later on Sunday, but we might well squeak out another nice day.  

Another Day, More Severe Storms In Vermont. Surprise Thunderstorms Possible - It Continues

A pretty shower cloud billows up looking northeast  from 
St. Albans, Vermont Thursday afternoon. While most of
the day's scattered showers and storms were harmless.
a couple brought damaging winds and hail to a few
spots in the state. 

As always, it seems lately, somebody in Vermont had a rough weather day. 

We have a few new severe storm reports from yesterday, as our pattern of rough weather continues. 

Most of us actually had a pretty nice day, with partly sunny skies and billowing clouds that made the day perfect for sky watching.

But there were a few trouble spots, the most notable being in western Rutland County. 

A severe storm there deposited ping pong ball sized hailstones on Fair Haven, and took down numerous trees along a section of Route 30 in Castleton. Elsewhere, in far northern Vermont, a storm took down at least one tree in North Troy.

So, it was the third day in a row with damaging storms in Vermont. 

TODAY

We've spend the past couple of days saying how glorious the weather will be today, but surprise! It turns out a couple more thunderstorms will hit parts of the state today. They probably won't be severe, but with our track record recently, you'd never know.

Meteorologists have known for days that a small weather disturbance would pass through Vermont today. A few days ago, that forecast suggested showers today. But in the past couple of days, it looked like a dry atmosphere today would support nothing more than some puffy clouds to decorate the skies.

Instead, the disturbance now looks like it will trigger some showers and maybe a couple of thunderstorms in a stripe heading southeastward from the central Adirondacks, through west central and southern Vermont  and into southern New England. 

At this point, it doesn't look like the storms will be severe, since the disturbance is weak and there's not a lot of heat and humidity to work with.  But I wouldn't rule out some gusty winds with one or two storms. 

Other than that, the day should be partly sunny/partly cloudy with highs in the 70s. With comfortable humidity as a bonus.

SATURDAY

Finally! A day without a risk that we'd have to beat a hasty retreat indoors to escape a sudden rainstorm.  We can expect sunshine, low humidity and highs in the 70s. Maybe close to 80 in the warmest spots in the Lower Connecticut River Valley.

Once again, we'll have a Saturday endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. We've been blessed with quite a few nice Saturdays this summer, in contrast to our general Green Mountain State rule that weekends cause rain.

SUNDAY

Speaking of rain, we think some will arrive Sunday, but we might still eke out a decent day. At least part of it. 

Those famous computer models have settled on a storm system coming into New England, probably beginning  later Sunday, but there's still questions about how much rain Vermont will get and whether those damn thunderstorms will start hassling us again. 

As it stands now, it looks like clouds will thicken and lower as we go through the day, with some showers arriving, maybe by late afternoon. Again, as it looks now, Sunday night looks rainy. We have an OK shot at having a statewide, soaking rain, which is great news for those parts of the state that missed out on the downpours from all those hit and miss thunderstorms we've had lately. 

Especially if this thing goes a little further north than expected, enough instability and deep moisture could reach Vermont to also touch off some overnight thunderstorms, just to make things noisy. Iffy this point, but we shall see.

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Maybe yet more showers and thunderstorms Monday as a cold front passes through. An early guess at next Tuesday suggests sunny and seasonable mid-August weather

Yes, It Was Autumnal In Vermont But July Cool Spells Aren't That Cool Anymore. Now Back To Regularly Scheduled Summer

Autumn-like clouds overhead and strong winds tilt a tree
in St. Albans yesterday on an autumn-like day. However,
summer cool spells are not as cold as they once were,
thanks largely to climate change. 

Yesterday and last night in Vermont sort of had the feel of early autumn. 

Broken clouds streaked across the sky, but in the afternoon and evening, they were those flat windswept type, not the puffy, rising, almost vertical clouds that are more common in summer. 

The winds for the past few days were gusty and cool, and much stronger than you'd expect in the summer. They gusts were more like what you might see toward November. 

By dawn today, readings were down to the upper 40s and low 50s. The summit of Mount Mansfield was at 39 degrees.

It looks like Burlington made it down to 53 degrees this morning, which will likely be the coolest night this month. 

But in yet another sign of climate change, probably mixed with urban development creating a heat island effect, that 53 low this morning is higher than what the July low routinely reached in the past.

.July temperatures in Burlington reached the 40s most years. But Burlington hasn't had a July low under 50 degrees since 2015. In the 80 years ending in 1990, only 17 years had July lows of 50 or above. In the 36 years since 1990,  all but 10 Julys had a months low of 50 degrees or more.  

To give you an idea how cool some Julys used to be, we can harken back to 1962, which, to be fair, was the chilliest July on record,. That July, eleven mornings started under 50 degrees. One of those mornings bottomed out at 39 degrees, which is still Burlington's coldest July temperature on record. It was 29 degrees in West Burke, Vermont that morning. 

Nothing like that is coming anytime soon, of course. No covering up those tomato plants for quite awhile yet. And, a warming trend is starting. Here's what's coming up over the next few days. 

TODAY

A nice one, with sunshine, low humidity and a light breeze. A strong but dying storm far up in Quebec was throwing clouds into far northern Vermont this morning, but those should mostly clear out. The sky, especially over the mountains, will probably have some puffy clouds building up this afternoon, but they won't be big enough to produce any raindrops.

SATURDAY

Another winner! The day will start off cool with temperatures in the 50s to near 60 at dawn, but rocket into the 80s by afternoon. It'll be another weekend day fully endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

SUNDAY:

Actually kind of a hot one by afternoon. Highs should get well into the 80s with the warmer valleys getting up to around 88 or 89 degrees. It'll be your beach day, probably. Some clouds might arrive during the afternoon, but those clouds won't turn the sky overcast. The sun will likely more out than in. Any showers should hold off until Sunday night at the earliest. 

Humidity levels should stay pretty reasonable, too. 

NEXT WEEK

The first half of the week looks unsettled with risks of showers and storms Monday through Wednesday. It's still too soon to say how many showers and storms, so stay tuned!

Vermont Cool Spell Ends Long 80 Degree Spell; No Real Heat For Awhile

Midsummer flowers in St. Albans, Vermont this morning.
It's the peak of summer, but we're having an inverted
"January thaw."  That's a July cool spell that tells
us summer will eventually end. 

 We're in the midst of the summer version of the Vermont "January thaw."

Many years, often around the third week of January, we have a warm spell that tells us winter will eventually end. Not yet, it'll be awhile, but spring will come. 

Right now, we're in the July version of that  It happens during warmer summers, like this one has been so far. We get a cool spell in mid to late July.  It's an autumn-like sign that summer will eventually end. Not right away. There's plenty of summer left to go. But for now, there's hints of September. 

Saturday, the high temperature in Burlington reached only 72 degrees. That ended a streak of 21 consecutive days in which the temperature reached at least 80 degrees. The streak is the fourth longest 80 degree string on record in Burlington. 

We were supposed to get to 80 degrees or more yesterday, but a burst of warm, humid air had trouble making it as far as northern New England. That fact, and another burst of wildfire smoke, helped keep us cool.

The situation did rescue us from any severe weather. It all stayed well to our west and south. There's dozens of thunderstorm damage reports from western New York to North Carolina. 

Rainfall was mostly modest in Vermont, which is a bummer, since many of us could use the rain. 

REST OF TODAY

The cool weather continues today, though it is much nicer than it was Saturday.  The smoke is gone for now, and a pleasant northwest breeze is blowing. Today's the weekend day to enjoy. Our hints of autumn continuing. Highs will only top out in the 70s - gorgeous, but cool for the peak of summer. 

Tonight will probably be the coolest we've seen since the second week of June. That's not saying much. Most of us we'll get into the low and mid 50s, with some 40s in the colder hollows. Nothing unusual for July. 

THIS WEEK

Tomorrow will be another nice day, though some clouds will come in this afternoon. Highs will be seasonable, topping out within a few degrees either side of 80 degrees. 

The next storm system, coming through Tuesday through Wednesday, but it looks pretty tame. More tame that I thought a few days ago. Unless there's a major change in the outlook, it appears severe weather will stay well to Vermont's south and west.

Some earlier forecasts suggested the storm could slow down or stall near us, which would put us at risk for heavy rain or even flooding. Now, that idea looks highly doubtful. The warm fronts and cold fronts and troughs and lines of showers should wander through, not in a hurry, but not dawdling either. 

That means we might, if we're lucky, receive a decent amount of rain. 

It'll temporarily turn more humid during the rainy spell, but not wildly so. And it will turn drier again later in the week. Wildfire smoke is still lurking around central North America, but it's thinning somewhat. Rain has temporarily cooled the big Ontario wildfires a bit. Still, it might get a little smoky again midweek. 

After that, we don't see any signs of new heat waves for at least 10 days. It'll be warm enough, but not intensely so. Most of the heat will stay in the western and central United States.

But then there's August. Who knows whether we'll have more heat waves them. Stay tuned! 

Likely Woodstock, Vermont Tornado To Be Investigated Today, More Inclement, But Not Violent Weather Due

Trees ripped apart on a Woodstock, Vermont hillside
after a likely tornado hit on Thursday. 
Photo from WCAX via Facebook

 Thanks to the fact that everyone has a camera and local TV stations are pretty aggressive when it comes to covering rare, violent weather in Vermont, we're now pretty confident that whatever hit Woodstock, Vermont yesterday was probably a tornado. 

Drone video from Henry's Weather Service shows trees snapped off halfway up, and many other trees felled in varying directions, which are telltale signs of a tornado. 

Video obtained from Tiffany LaRocque taken from inside Mountain Creamery in Woodstock shows intense winds and rain on the edge of the tornado. Trees were falling and the parking lot was full of vehicles as people traveling along Route 4 took refuge there as driving conditions became impossible. 

About 100 people were affected by the probably tornado on the western side of town, WPTZ reports. Thankfully, we have no reports of injuries, which is pleasantly surprising, given how much traffic there usually is on Route 4 where the probably tornado crossed. 

The tornado missed the historic central village of Woodstock, which is a world-renowned tourist hub. Initial reports indicate only minor tree damage in the village center. 

Reports are that National Weather Service meteorologists from South Burlington will head to Woodstock, probably today, to confirm whether this was a tornado.  If that analysis happens, we'll learn how strong the tornado was and how long and wide the path was.

Judging from the drone video, the path of the tornado looked a little longer than most Vermont tornadoes. Twisters in the Green Mountain State tend to touch down and lift almost immediately. 

I'm not sure on the strength of the tornado, but judging from photos and that drone video, I'd say it was an EF-1, which would mean winds of 86 to 110 mph. 

Once the National Weather Service offers a report on the Woodstock storm, I'll write up a new post with the updates.

Heading east from Woodstock, there was additional severe damage. In Quechee, Vermont, a row of large willow trees on a golf course fell. They all went down in the same direction, suggesting straight line wind damage. 

There was also extensive damage in Hartford, Vermont, where a lot of trees fell. 

Nearly 4,000 Vermont homes and businesses were still without power this morning, mostly in southeastern Vermont. Londonderry had 1,100 of those outages, suggesting something nasty rolled through that town yesterday. 

This morning, other trouble spots popped up in northern Vermont, near the Canadian border. The Barton River at Coventry and the Missisquoi river near North Troy were at minor flood stage. Heavy rains yesterday fell atop soils soaked by very heavy rains that hit up there on Sunday. 

We had reports of a lot of street flooding Thursday in Newport and Middlebury. Probably other towns experienced that, too. 

Rainfall was quite heavy in many spots. Burlington had 1.11 inches of rain. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 1.54 inches. A full report on how much rain fell in specific towns will become available later this morning. 

WHAT'S AHEAD?

Thankfully, we're done with the violent weather at least for awhile, but conditions will be unsettled and wet at times. Northern Vermont in particular is in for some showery weather this weekend. 

The out of season, strong low pressure system that gave Vermont the rough weather yesterday is meandering through Quebec. It's rotating little disturbances through here and will continue to do so through the weekend. 

That means frequent bursts of rain,  especially north. Total rainfall through Sunday night will be near an inch over the northern Green Mountains. In most valley towns north of Route 2,  a half to three quarters of an inch will come down between now and Monday morning.   

The rainfall will taper to a quarter inch in central Vermont and less than a tenth of an inch in far southeast Vermont. A  few garden variety thunderstorms and downpours will probably mix in, so a few towns will get more rain than the rest of Vermont as a result. 

A few daily details: 

Today

Mostly cloudy and breezy with west to southwest winds gusting to 25 or 20 mph. Most of the afternoon showers and garden variety thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be north of Route 2, but some will drift into central Vermont by very late afternoon or the first half of tonight. A few storms might have briefly heavy downpours, but not enough to cause any flooding or anything like that. 

Highs should reach the low and mid 70s in most valleys

Saturday

Probably the worst day of the bunch. Northern areas will see very little sun and frequent showers. Southern valleys will see some sun, but also a risk of a shower. It will be quite cool for the season with highs in the 60s north, with low to mid 70s southern valley floors. 

Hikers should be aware that summits will be wet and cold tomorrow with wind chills in the 40s. If you insist on hiking, it won't be a summertime activity. Dress accordingly. 

Sunday

More showers and garden variety thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low 70s, give or take. 

 

A Small Storm Chance Today Followed By Weird, Stormy Vermont Day Tomorrow

Much like this past Sunday, much of the Northeast
including Vermont is in a level two out of five risk
for severe thunderstorms tomorrow (yellow
shading). Whether we get severe storms 
tomorrow depends on whether building storms
can grab high speed air screaming overhead.

 Yesterday was another gorgeous day in Vermont, although a couple late afternoon and evening showers and storms in the Adirondacks. 

Now, we're gearing up for another weird storm in Vermont. It's the "winter storm" I talked about yesterday. More on that  mess in a minute, but let's just look at today's forecast first. Just so we can relax a bit

TODAY

It'll generally be a not bad day. It started off gorgeous with blue skies and in some areas, a nice breeze.

The clouds will tend to increase today, and a couple showers or thunderstorms might pop up this afternoon. Many of us will stay dry, but others will have one or two wet periods. Not a washout at all. Highs should flirt with 80 degrees today. 

THURSDAY 

Kind of a complicated mess of a day with gusty winds, bursts of rain and the risk of severe thunderstorms. 

Our winter-like storm looks like it will set off a nasty tornado and severe thunderstorm outbreak across Illinois and Indiana today. By tomorrow morning, the storm should be somewhere in the general vicinity of Ottawa. 

As I mentioned yesterday, storm systems, if they exist at all in the summer, are almost always very weak. This will be a strong one, the kind of storm you see pretty often in the winter, when storms tend to be a lot more energetic 

In general, the lower the air pressure, the stronger the storm. This one looks like it might have a barometric pressure below 990 millibars, which is near record territory for June. Since the storm will be passing so close to Vermont, we might  have barometer readings that might be close to record lows.

But that's not what we have to worry about. 

The problem with this storm will be wind. We'll have just the regular strong winds that a strong low pressure system stirs up, and the possibility of even more damaging winds with a few strong to severe afternoon thunderstorms. 

Wind

In the summer, since storm systems are weak, we almost never had strong, gusty winds, except of course in thunderstorms. And those thunderstorm winds only cover a small fraction of the state when they do occur.

With our strong storm, it will be windy almost everywhere in Vermont tomorrow. Gusts will reach 35 to 40 mph at times across most of the state, with locally higher winds of up to 45 or 50 mph in a couple spots.  

Those kinds of gusts hit all the time in the winter when the trees are leafless. But now, the trees are heavy with leaves. Each leaf will act like a little sail tugging at trees as the winds blow through. That means a few trees and branches might give up the ghost and crash to the ground. 

Some of those trees will take down power lines. This won't be an anywhere near a blackout situation, but a few scattered power outages seem possible.  I'd stay off of Lake Champlain, too. The broad lake should have at least two to four foot waves, which isn't great for small boats. 

Thunderstorms

A warm front that's part of the storm will throw a burst of moderate to heavy rain at us for a few hours in the morning. There might be a rumble of thunder or two with this, but they won't be severe. It'll just be sort of a stormy, unpleasant morning. 

Then, in the afternoon, the warm front will be in Quebec and the storm's cold front will be to our west, heading our way.

In this zone, we are at risk of severe storms.  But it's iffy. We indeed might see those severe storms. But there's a chance it could end up being like this past Sunday, where no severe storms really developed,

Like last Sunday, Vermont is in a slight risk zone, (alert level 2 out of 5) for severe storms tomorrow, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

There will be a lot of clouds around, and it won't get super warm tomorrow (highs in the mid 70s to near 80).  Those conditions would tend to dampen the risk of storms. 

But remember, our parent storm system in southern Canada is super intense for this time of year. Winds several thousand feet overhead will be screaming along. Storms that do develop could grab some of that high speed air and blast it down on us, leading to locally damaging gusts. 

Or, the winds aloft might be so strong that they tilt wannabe thunderstorms so they have trouble getting severe. We don't know yet. 

It's a maybe, maybe not proposition, so stay tuned and be prepared in case there are severe storms tomorrow. The storms will be moving very fast because of those strong upper level winds. So there might not be much warning for you if a severe storm develops. 

Do note that just because we didn't see severe storms last Sunday, we're not immune from such storms tomorrow. This is an entirely different weather setup that we had a few days ago, so you can't rely on last Sunday's weather maps for clues.  

Flooding

I'm not really that worried about flooding. Sure, rain might come down hard at times. But everything will be moving so fast that the downpours will zip on through before they can cause much trouble.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center does have us in marginal risk zone (Level 1 out of 4) for flash flooding. That's because a few areas of Vermont have gotten really sodden from recent rains, so it might not take much to set off some high water. But if something like that does occur, it will be pretty isolated and scattered.

In general, we should expect a half inch to an inch of rain out of this storm, give or take

AFTER THE STORM

In the winter, storms like this often stalls or slows down way up north in Quebec or in the Canadian Maritime provinces, creating cold northwest winds, wind chills and snow showers. Those snow showers usually focus over northern Vermont and the mountains. 

None of that will happen, but it will be cool. And breezy. With showers. Rain showers, not snow showers, of course! Those showers could happen anywhere, but yes, they'll focus over northern Vermont and the mountains. 

The cool air won't be really established yet on Friday, so it'll get into the 70s. Best chance of shower is i the afternoon and evening. 

Saturday will be the cold, blustery post-"winter storm" day. Highs will only get into the 60s to around 70, and there will be quite a few showers around. Nothing heavy, but just enough to make the day exactly the opposite of the warm, bright sunny Saturday we had last weekend. 

Sunday will be somewhat better, but we'll still have a risk of light showers. 

Very often, after a winter storm passes just to our north in, say, January,  a follow up storm comes by and tracks across southern New England. That gives Vermont a nice snowstorm, especially south. 

Again, no snow this time, it's a zillion times too warm. But Monday could turn out cool and rainy as a storm comes by and tracks across southern New England. It's still too soon to know how much rain, but the best chances are across southern Vermont. 

This "winter weather pattern" won't last all summer, of course. Temperatures should warm up to more seasonal levels later next week, with no cold season type storms in sight. 

Another Vermont Break: Severe Storms, Flooding Mostly Didn't Materialize. So, What's Next?N

Stormy, volatile looks skies over St. Albans, Vermont
last evening, but severe weather and flash flooding
mostly did not materialize in the Green Mountain
State on Sunday, despite forecasts to the contrary

Yesterday, we went through our second threat of severe, damaging weather in Vermont within three days, and once again, we largely escaped trouble.  

Maybe I feel a little like the Boy Who Cried Wolf, but not really. First of all, we should be grateful there wasn't much in the way of damaging storms or high water. Secondly, weather almost always surprises, despite our nation's supposed meteorological prowess. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

 I also think National Weather Service forecasting has deteriorated a little thanks to Trump's DOGE cuts to this critically important agency, but I'm still waiting on the studies that prove it. This is not a criticism of the meteorologists working at the NWS. It's a criticism of the government that's running it. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

There were a couple trouble spots last night. The National Weather Service had to issue a flash flood warning for the Green Mountains roughly between Rutland and White River Junction. Numerous small roads off of Route 4 near Killington became impassable overnight due to washouts and flooding. Up to four inches of rain was reported in the area. 

A flood advisory was still in effect early this morning over in northern New Hampshire. 

The rain was substantial in northern Vermont, but definitely less than feared. I don't have much in the way of reports yet, but I'm sure forecasts of over an inch of rain near the Canadian border came true. At least in a few spots. But the localized three inch totals probably didn't happen

There were no severe thunderstorms Sunday in Vermont that I'm aware of. I think the skies were too cluttered with clouds and showers during the morning and afternoon to produce the storms. Temperatures across much of central and northern Vermont held in the low to mid 70s under the clouds, not the 80s that had been predicted.

That meant less energy and less instability for severe storms. Almost all the severe weather stayed clustered in the Pennsylvania and Ohio, and the Mid-Atlantic states. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Now that our Sunday storm is done, we can look forward to some decent weather for the next couple of days before the next system arrives later in the week.

We'll go with partly sunny skies after clouds clear out this morning.  Broader valleys will be sunniest this afternoon as a few instability clouds litter the blue skies over the Green Mountains. Highs will be i the 70s. Tomorrow will pretty much be a carbon copy to today. 

We'll start getting back into the clouds and shower risks on Wednesday, but the day won't be a washout. Highs will reach the 70s to around 80.

Thursday looks like an interesting day from a meteorological perspective, but - fingers crossed - I suspect Vermont might dodge more bullets. No promises yet, but so far, it looks OK. 

A pretty strong storm  for this time of  year- one that you usually see in the winter, not summer - should originate around Colorado or Wyoming tomorrow. It will race east to a spot somewhere near Minnesota or Wisconsin on Wednesday. Then it will continue blasting generally eastward, arriving in southeastern Ontario or southern Quebec Thursday. 

The storm seems almost guaranteed to bring a nasty swath of severe thunderstorms and maybe tornadoes in the Midwest Wednesday and Mid-Atlantic States Thursday. 

On this path, Vermont would be in the sweet spot. We'd be close enough to the storm center so that the severe storms wouldn't get quite this far north. The heaviest rain would fall in Quebec. And besides, whether you're in Quebec or Vermont, the storm will blast through so quickly that we wouldn't get enough rain to create much flooding. 

I do give a caveat, as there is a risk some severe storms could sneak into Vermont, especially the south, but so far, so good. 

The storm will probably give us a decent dousing of rain. And since it will be an unusually strong storm, gusty non-thunderstorm winds might bring down a few isolated trees, branches or power lines. 

This is all early guesses. I'll have more when we get closer to the event. 

We're falling into a cool, unsettled weather pattern that will probably last until near the end of the month. Such a pattern features somewhat below normal temperatures most days. It also features frequent chances of showers, but overall rainfall after Thursday shouldn't really be all that heavy. 

Cold Storm Departs. Much Weaker Cold Storm Arrives Today But Summer Is Around The Corner!

Yes, that was snow gleaming at the summit of Mount
Mansfield, Vermont Saturday after a cold storm blew through

That storm yesterday really left its mark on New England with mountain snows and wind and rain and chilly temperatures reminiscent of March in some places. 

Here in Vermont, the weather got nice, if chilly. The afternoon sky lit up blue, with patchy, cold-looking stratocumulus clouds. 

The tippy top of Mount Mansfield gleamed white with new snow. Yes, on May 30. Nice contrast between the green slopes just below the snow. 

The weather wasn't so nice in so nice in eastern New England. The storm evolved into a nor'easter,, with many communities in eastern Massachusetts never getting above 50 degrees and wind gusts exceeding 50 mph. Hull, Massachusetts reached 60 mph. 

Adding to the drama, a meteor exploded over Cape Cod Bay somewhere between Boston and Provincetown Saturday afternoon, creating a loud boom and some shaking

Back here in Vermont, rainfall was more generous than predicted. Most places north and east of Interstate 89 had more than an inch of rain. Many towns in that wet region has more than 1.5 inches of rain. The town of Morgan was drenched with .2.19 inches of rain. Westfield had 1.9 inches.  

More rain is in the forecast, but nothing like we saw Friday night and early Saturday. 

TODAY

Skies clouded up overnight, preventing temperatures from getting cold enough for a frost. The clouds are from the next batch of showers and cold air aloft diving down through Quebec toward us. 

Unlike in eastern New England, skies cleared during the
late morning to reveal a delightfully sunny, breezy, 
cool afternoon to enjoy the outdoors,

This one is much weaker than the small-sized but big powerhouse we dealt with Friday night. So we'll see much less rain.  

Most places will only see 0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain, so this is only a slight wetting compared to what we saw Friday night. 

A few places will get a little more, because there's a chance a thunderstorm or two could be embedded within the mess of showers heading our way. 

If some thunderstorms get going, a few might  have pea sized hail since the air high above us is so cold. 

As far as timing goes, we already had a few light showers going on north as of 9 a.m. There will be a rising chance of showers north, spreading south through the day. The greatest chances of getting wet will probably is between 4 and 8 p.m., but of course there's chances of rain before and after those hours. 

Since its a cold system, it'll be cool for the season again today with highs in the 60s.

REST OF THE WEEK

We will slowly emerge from this cool spell and welcome back early summer.  Some potential complications that would keep us chilly longer are starting to seem less and less likely. 

Monday will probably start off cloudy, but clear up as temperatures rise only into the 60s, with maybe a spot 70 in warmer valleys far south and upper 50s in hilly terrain north. That's still a little cool as we start off June, but it's nothing incredible. 

The rest of the week looks pretty sunny and really nice. Highs should be near 70 Tuesday, well into the 70s Wednesday and probably into the 80s by Thursday. 

Cold fronts coming along toward next weekend look like they'll lack the oomph of the ones we saw in May, So generally warm weather will get June off to a great start, 

Snow In Vermont Mountains This Morning. It's Clearing Up, But Summer Weather Remains Days Away

Snow at the measuring stake near the top of
Sugarbush Resort, Vermont, elevation
 about 4,000 feet as snow dusted the 
peaks of New England overnight. 
 

 Our impressive and cold storm that came at us from Canada is winding down, and yes, it did snow in the mountains. 

I was checking out web cams, and the cameras that aren't frozen solid at summit definitely showed snow. 

The Bolton Mountain web cam showed wind-blown flurries early this morning. The Heaven's Gate web cam atop Sugarbush Ski Resort, at about 4,000 feet elevation showed a solid coating of snow 

The rainfall from this storm was impressive for what should be a cold, dry storm from the Arctic. The dynamics in this thing were incredible and were really able to wring the moisture out of the air. 

Montpelier has had at least 1.37 inches - it was still raining lightly there when I checked. St. Johnsbury clocked in at 1.73 inches. I'm betting we'll have a couple places in the Northeast Kingdom go over two inches. 

Enough rain fell around the White Mountains that a flood warning was issued for the area around Conway, New Hampshire. The Saco River there was expected to reach minor flood stage there. 

Weather geeks like me were fascinated by this storm. It was tiny in area, but it has been a powerhouse. While it was still in Quebec, the storm formed a cold front of sorts that managed to sweep a line of some strong thunderstorms through parts of northern New York and Vermont. Radar indicated outflow winds of 50 mph or so over Lake Champlain.

The "cold front" became more south to north oriented or even southeast to northwest oriented over eastern Vermont. That tapped a moisture source from the Atlantic Ocean, helping to explain the heavy rains. 

Further west, there was a sharp cutoff in the amount of rainfall. Burlington has 0,6 inches of rain. Plattsburgh had a little under a half inch. 

The storm was pulling away to the south and east as of 9 a.m. this morning, taking its precipitation with it. 

REST OF TODAY

Radar mage of the storm last night at around 10:30 p.m.
The center of the storm was about over Montreal
at the time. 

It's actually going to be a fairly nice day after the rest of the rain stops this morning. It was already sunny and breezy here in St. Albans as of 9 a.m. That trend will cover the entire state today. 

It'll feel like the end of April instead of the end of May. Temperatures should stay in the mid and upper 50s, with maybe a couple low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

SUNDAY

Another disturbance will come in from the north much like last night's did. But this one will be much weaker. 

We'll just have increasing clouds with a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs should get well into the 60s, but that's still a little cooler than average for this time of year. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY: More cool weather, more showers as a deep dip in the jet stream stays over or just east of New England.  Much of the time will be dry, and highs will e in the 60s to near 70

BEYOND TUESDAY. It looks like the deep dip in the jet stream might evolve into a cut off low near or just off the East Coast. A cut off low is a storm that meanders around, not moving north because the jet stream has moved off to the north. The jet stream being to the north, there's nothing to push the storm along. 

Fingers crossed, the cut off low will hopefully be too far south to bother us. If that forecasts pans out, then the second half of the week would be dry and warm. 

Unexpected Clouds Rescued Most Of Vermont/North Country From A Nasty Freeze

The sky looked chilly over St. Albans yesterday, leading
to forecasts of freezes and frosts. It did get cold last
night, but it was a couple degrees warmer than 
forecasts, so no hard freezes. That was good
for vulnerable plants and crops.

For the most part, it didn't get quite as cold in most of Vermont overnight, thanks mostly to some unexpected clouds that covered the skies over northern parts of the state early this morning. 

Clouds tend to hold in heat, so it ended up a few degrees warmer than it otherwise would have been.

Under clearer skies, Bennington did manage to get to at least 31 degrees, and Rutland was at 32.  

Most of northern Vermont away from the Champlain Valley were also in the low 30s, so there was at least light frost around. But we had no hard freezes except in the coldest hollows where the growing season hasn't really started anyway. 

The Champlain Valley remained mostly frost free, though Middlebury. a little south of that cloud cover, did manage to touch 32 degree.  It looks like Burlington bottomed out at a reasonable 39 degrees. which won't even be the coldest night this month. It was 37 degrees on May 8.

Until recent years, it would almost always get below freezing in Burlington during May. That has changed with climate change intensifying. Since 2011, May temperatures in Burlington have touched 32 degrees on only three occasions. 

Judging from weather forecasts, Burlington will not see any freezing temperatures this May, either. 

FORECAST

The good news is it's going to get wet. We actually need the rain. And eventually, it's going to get warmer. 

Today

The clouds in the north should at least partly clear out today.  If it all works out, we'll end up with a classic cool May afternoon. Sun will mix with clouds and highs will only reach the 50s, which is a good ten degrees cooler than average. 

With such a cool days in store, you'd think we'd be in for another frost and freeze risk tonight. There might well be areas of frost, especially in central and eastern Vermont, but overall, tonight will be a bit warmer than last night. 

That's because more clouds will be coming in. This will introduce a fairly long stretch of wet weather.

Wednesday/Thursday

There's some debate as to when the rain will start Wednesday. Could be early in the morning, could be in the late morning. But it's not going to be a nice day. Another stay indoors day for sure. It'll be rainy and cool, with chilly southeast breezes. Once again we'll  only get into the 50s. 

The storm coming in from the west will eventually transfer to a new, sluggish system on or near the New England coast. That will keep moisture coming inland across the region. That means on and off rain through Thursday. 

Early estimates say most of us would get between a half and three quarters of an inch of rain out of this, with maybe bit less right near the Canadian border.  A few spots central and south could get over an inch of rain. 

Friday/Weekend

That offshore New England storm will probably keep clouds and some showers going on Friday, but my early guess is it won't be a washout. And it'll be a little warmer, with highs in the 60s.

The weekend looks pretty good. There is a slight chance of showers, I suppose, but we'll also a fair amount of sun, fingers crossed. The bigger news is the temperature: It should get to at least near 70 degrees each day. 

The entire weather pattern is changing.  For the rest of May, chilly blasts of air will have a much more difficult time coming in from Canada than they did during the first half of the month. There might be a cool day thrown in here and there. But otherwise we'll launch into what I call pre-summer. 

The weather will be almost summery, but not quite. That means lots of 70s and for almost all of us, no chance of nighttime more frosts.

Let those gardens grow! 

Frosty Times In Vermont As Long Awaited Warm Weather Is Postponed A Bit M

Late afternoon sun lights up this spring scene in 
my St. Albans, Vermont back yard on Sunday.
Cool weather will preserve the flowers for
awhile, but sensitive plants are staying inside
tonight because of a frost risk. 

Morning showers yesterday, some unexpectedly heavy in northwest Vermont, gave way to a beautiful, breezy and mild Mother's Day. But also as expected, that nice weather yielded to a frosty morning in parts of Vermont this morning.  

Most places away from the Champlain Valley were in the low and mid 30s, which brings us into frost territory. 

The cool weather will go on all week, as some changes in the forecast have postponed some long awaited warm weather. But those balmy conditions are still on the way. Eventually.   

Let's take a gander at this week's cool weather. 

TODAY

Clouds will mix in with the sun this afternoon, especially north and mountains, as a very, very wimpy little disturbance passes by. There might even be a light shower or sprinkle in a few spot. Highs will hold in the mid and upper 50s, which is about ten degrees below normal for this time of year.

Tonight will be the coldest of the bunch, and I'm sure the National Weather Service in South Burlington will issue another round of frost advisories by the time they release their updated forecasts this afternoon. 

I'm not sure yet, but unlike last night, I suspect the frost advisories might extend into the Champlain Valley. Lows should range from the mid and upper 20s in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom, to the low 30s in most of Vermont and the mid-30s in the Champlain Valley. Take those sensitive plants indoors! 

As readers of this here blog thingy probably know, I almost always say it could be worse, and I find receipts that prove it. 

For example, on this day in Burlington, 1963, the high temperature was only 40 degrees, the low was 30 degrees and we had some cold rain, mixed with a  trace of snow. 

And on this date in 1945, higher elevations in southern Vermont was blasted by a mid-winter style snowfall. Somerset and Wilmington got 15 inches of snow, and 10 inches fell in Dorset. In lower elevations. 5.5 inches of snow accumulated in Rutland. 

OK moving on. 

TUESDAY

Another cool, sunny day after the morning frost with highs in the 50s. Actually a very nice, comfortably cool day to get things down outdoors. Aside from the black flies, that is.  Tuesday night will get chilly once again, so frost will be an issue for the third night in a row. It should be a couple degrees warmer than tonight because clouds will start to cover the skies overnight.  

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

Those clouds will lead to frequent showers starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing well into Thursday. I'm not sure how much rain we'll get, but it doesn't look like we'll exactly drown. This isn't a powerhouse weather system that's coming in. 

We'll be done with the frost, finally, as the clouds will keep overnight temperatures in the 40s. But those same clouds and showers will hold daytime temperatures down to within a few degrees either side of 60. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

The weather system from Wednesday and Thursday now seems like it might sort of stall out over the ocean east of New England. That will keep clouds here in Vermont Friday and maybe into part of Saturday. And that storm will blunt the expected warmup, but only temporarily. 

It should get into the low 60s Friday and well into the 60s to near 70. That would be the first time in a week with near normal temperatures. 

The weather pattern does seem like it wants to evolve into something better if you're a warm weather fan.  Instead of the flow from Canada we've had since the very end of April, it looks like weather systems will want to zip through here on a nice west to east fashion starting next weekend. 

That means the second half of the month would provide us with near normal to somewhat warmer than normal conditions. Under that scenario, we'd end up with many but not all days making it into the 70s. The warmest days would be near 80 and the coolest days in that stretch would be in the 60s. 

In other words, almost, but not quite summer weather. Won't that be nice?

Cold Spell Of Vermont May Weather Continues With Snow, Freezes; Chilly Pattern To Continue

Daffodils enjoy some morning sun today in St. Albans,
Vermont. Cool weather has kept the daffodils blooming

Friday's weather in Vermont made a liar out of me. 

I said the other day we wouldn't get snow this week or next, except maybe at the tippy top of the mountains. 

Well, when I was in Enosburg Falls, Vermont yesterday, there was a graupel shower. While I was trying to mow a lawn, for gawd's sake. 

Graupel is that sleety, white snow that looks like it partly melted and refroze on the way down. Just regular snowflakes were spotted Friday in Readsboro, in southern Vermont. 

The place in Readsboro where it snowed is at a pretty high elevation, but not at the summit of any mountains. I'm sure it snowed in other places as well. Killington Ski Resort still has a trail with many feet of snow on it. They traditionally close for the season around Memorial Day or at about June 1. 

At this rate in the cool weather, Killington will be open to skiers all summer. I don't really believe that, but the chilly weather is starting to slow down the pace of spring. 

Last night was cold, too. Morning lows today in the Champlain Valley were in the mid-30s, so I think a frost advisory should have been issued there. A hard freeze hit some places away from the lake this morning. Montpelier got to at least 27 degrees and Morrisville was at 27 at 6 a.m. 

Saranac Lake, the perennial cold spot in the Adirondacks, was at a frigid 21 degrees at 6 a.m. today. 

On the bright side, it's not hot and humid, which would be even worse than the fleece and jacket weather we've been having. And the cold air keeps the early spring flowers going for longer. My daffodils look fantabulous this year. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

It'll be a little warmer this weekend, but not spectacularly so. And it's back to cool weather next week, though. And even though we'll see frequent chances of showers, we're not really going to get all the rain we need, either. 

A warm front of sorts is lifting up through Vermont today.  That means far southern Vermont should actually see some rain today, with maybe a quarter to a third of an inch down there.  It was already raining near the Massachusetts border early this morning. 

After a lot of morning sun, it will tend to cloud up this afternoon north. Central and northern Vermont will see little if any rain later today, and maybe just some light, boring showers tonight. 

A few showers might splatter down on Mother's Day, but they'll be hit and miss, won't last long and won't amount to much. Sunday will also actually feature normal temperatures for this time of year, with highs well into the 60s.

Enjoy the brief heat while you can. 

We'll be back down with 50s for highs during the first half of the week, which will be about ten degrees below normal. There's a chance of frost this coming Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

It still looks like it might warm up somewhat during the second half of next week.  Current projections suggest temperatures will head toward normal May levels. That's mid 60s to around 70.  Rainfall will probably stay scant for at least a week, probably more.  

We Got Through Our Cold Vermont Rainy Day, Coming Up: A Hard To Predict Cool Regime

After a chilly, rainy day with a low gray overcast dawn until'
evening. Here in St. Albans, though, the sun broke through
right at sunset, giving us a brief burst of bright light
to promise a return of nicer weather in the coming days. 

Yesterday worked out about as expected, with day long rains soaking the ground and getting trees and plants a boost to keep bursting out in spring green.  

Rainfall amounts were close to forecasts in most places. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Rutland all had something close to an inch of rain. Bennington and Springfield had a little over a half inch, which was - again - in line with forecasts. 

Burlington was an exception. They only got a half inch or so of rain yesterday. Which means that long term record for most rain May 6, which is 0.85 in 1894 still stands.

Although surface winds were from the north, keeping Burlington's temperatures in the 40s all day, the moisture flow was from the southwest. I think the Adirondacks were blocking some of the moisture from the Champlain Valley. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

Part of the answer to that question, What's Next, is, who knows? We have that dip in the jet stream that will keep us cooler than average on most, but maybe not all days over the next week to 10 days. 

Today and tomorrow look pretty straight forward. We'll have sun, with clouds mixing in, especially near the mountains. One minute the sun will be out, the next it won't, them it will reappear. The chances of showers are pretty low, so if you have outdoor plans, you should be good. 

Both today and tomorrow will be cool for the season, but at least it will be much warmer than yesterday.  Most of Vermont should reach into the 50s both days.

WEEKEND

Here's where we are a bit at a loss as to what will happen. The broad brush idea is pretty clear. A weak warm front will come through Saturday, bringing temperatures ever so slightly warmer to the upper 50s to near 60. 

It'll be even warmer Sunday. with highs in the 60s. That might seem pretty warm, but now we're so late into the spring that 60s is exactly normal. We also have chances of showers both days. 

Fine, but how many showers and how much rain will fall?  The weather systems circulating through the big dip in the jet stream parked over the Great Lakes and Northeast are kind of small and fast moving. And they're interacting with each other in a way that makes it hard to predict their exact path.

So figuring out where the best moisture will set up, where the showers will concentrate, when the showers will arrive and leave is hard to tell. 

Bottom line: If you have outdoor plans for Mother's Day, you might get away with it, but you are taking chances. I noticed meteorologists are trying to time out when the showers will hit and where the rain will come down the hardest. So far, it looks like most of the daylight hours on Sunday might stay dry, but that forecast could easily change. 

Actually, expect forecast changes from Saturday onward into next week.   The good news is that whatever happens, we won't have any extreme weather over the next several days. No scary thunderstorms. It'll be cool, with even a frost risk on some nights.  But no hard freezes. Also, no torrential rains  no floods. And no snow, aside from a slight risk of flakes at the tippy top of the mountains, maybe, 

Cold, Rainy Day In Vermont Keeping Us Indoors, But Giving Us A Needed Soaking

National Weather Service radar showed rain moving southwest
to northeast from New York into Vermont as of 9:45 a.m. 
today. So as you can see, we're in for a wet day. 
That rain-free area in southeast Vermont should
get wet later today. 

 I'm posting this morning's update late than usual because I decided to sleep in today. 

It's a perfect day to do it, with a steady rain drumming on the roof and chilly air outside. Might as well relax for a change, right?  

The wind and thunderstorms and power outages from yesterday have faded. 

Most of the power outages were in eastern Vermont.  Gusty winds ahead of the showers and thunderstorms knocked trees to power lines in places like Barre and Thetford. 

As mentioned yesterday, trees are suddenly getting heavier as thousands of leaves on each tree sprout and grow. 

That many leaves are heavy when taken together. If you have a large tree in your yard and have to rake and remove the leaves in the fall, you know what I'm talking about. 

If a tree was weakened during the winter, the new leaves and the wind can combine to knock them down. We'll see more random trees break or fall here and there as the leaves continue to grow. 

A few brush fires developed in eastern Vermont before the showers, too. A tree fell on a power line in Newfane, sparking a brush fire there. 

There won't be any brush fires in Vermont today. Here are the details

TODAY

It was raining everywhere in Vermont as of 9 a.m. except in far southeastern Vermont.  A cold front is creeping across the state at a snail's pace while a wave of low pressure rides along the front. We're still looking at storm totals from yesterday afternoon to this evening of around an inch, with more in some spots. 

There's a good chance that Burlington, Vermont will break a very old record for the today's date. The wettest May 6 on record is 0.85 inches set way back in 1894. Those forecasts for an inch of rain today would break that record. 

Southeastern Vermont will see less rain, with maybe a half inch expected. Which sucks, because that's the driest part of the state. It would have been nice if they'd get more rain out to this. Spoiler: There will be more rain chances after today. 

The rain will start to dwindle first in northwest mid to late afternoon and that trend of rain ending will then spread southeast in the evening. 

Highs should stay in the 40s north and hold in the 50s for the most part south, so it's a cold, wet May day. Get your indoor projects done today!

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

Both days will be cool for the season, but not bad. This weather pattern always has us under a threat of a shower, but if any develop either of these days, they should be light and isolated.  Forecasters are also expecting a fair amount of sun  mixed with the clouds both days. Highs should only be in the 50s to low 60s, which is cooler than average for this time of year.  

WEEKEND

Things could change, but it's looking unsettled. One little storm looks like it will go just to our south, so most of the rain will hit southern New England. But, we'll have clouds and a good chance of showers. Especially in southern Vermont. It won't be a big dump of rain down there, but it add a little more water to the fields and gardens down there. 

A slightly stronger storm will approach Sunday. At first, That will probably warm us up well into the 60s. If we're lucky, the rain will hold off until Sunday night. 

There's still lots of questions on the speed, path and intensity of that storm, so we don't know how much rain we'll get. 

After that, it's back to the relatively cool, unsettled weather we've had most days lately.