Another Day, More Severe Storms In Vermont. Surprise Thunderstorms Possible - It Continues

A pretty shower cloud billows up looking northeast  from 
St. Albans, Vermont Thursday afternoon. While most of
the day's scattered showers and storms were harmless.
a couple brought damaging winds and hail to a few
spots in the state. 

As always, it seems lately, somebody in Vermont had a rough weather day. 

We have a few new severe storm reports from yesterday, as our pattern of rough weather continues. 

Most of us actually had a pretty nice day, with partly sunny skies and billowing clouds that made the day perfect for sky watching.

But there were a few trouble spots, the most notable being in western Rutland County. 

A severe storm there deposited ping pong ball sized hailstones on Fair Haven, and took down numerous trees along a section of Route 30 in Castleton. Elsewhere, in far northern Vermont, a storm took down at least one tree in North Troy.

So, it was the third day in a row with damaging storms in Vermont. 

TODAY

We've spend the past couple of days saying how glorious the weather will be today, but surprise! It turns out a couple more thunderstorms will hit parts of the state today. They probably won't be severe, but with our track record recently, you'd never know.

Meteorologists have known for days that a small weather disturbance would pass through Vermont today. A few days ago, that forecast suggested showers today. But in the past couple of days, it looked like a dry atmosphere today would support nothing more than some puffy clouds to decorate the skies.

Instead, the disturbance now looks like it will trigger some showers and maybe a couple of thunderstorms in a stripe heading southeastward from the central Adirondacks, through west central and southern Vermont  and into southern New England. 

At this point, it doesn't look like the storms will be severe, since the disturbance is weak and there's not a lot of heat and humidity to work with.  But I wouldn't rule out some gusty winds with one or two storms. 

Other than that, the day should be partly sunny/partly cloudy with highs in the 70s. With comfortable humidity as a bonus.

SATURDAY

Finally! A day without a risk that we'd have to beat a hasty retreat indoors to escape a sudden rainstorm.  We can expect sunshine, low humidity and highs in the 70s. Maybe close to 80 in the warmest spots in the Lower Connecticut River Valley.

Once again, we'll have a Saturday endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. We've been blessed with quite a few nice Saturdays this summer, in contrast to our general Green Mountain State rule that weekends cause rain.

SUNDAY

Speaking of rain, we think some will arrive Sunday, but we might still eke out a decent day. At least part of it. 

Those famous computer models have settled on a storm system coming into New England, probably beginning  later Sunday, but there's still questions about how much rain Vermont will get and whether those damn thunderstorms will start hassling us again. 

As it stands now, it looks like clouds will thicken and lower as we go through the day, with some showers arriving, maybe by late afternoon. Again, as it looks now, Sunday night looks rainy. We have an OK shot at having a statewide, soaking rain, which is great news for those parts of the state that missed out on the downpours from all those hit and miss thunderstorms we've had lately. 

Especially if this thing goes a little further north than expected, enough instability and deep moisture could reach Vermont to also touch off some overnight thunderstorms, just to make things noisy. Iffy this point, but we shall see.

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Maybe yet more showers and thunderstorms Monday as a cold front passes through. An early guess at next Tuesday suggests sunny and seasonable mid-August weather

Vermont Smoky, Windy, Stormy Saturday; Severe Storm Risk, Especially West. Will Sunday Rescue The Weekend?

A widespread severe weather outbreak is due in the
Northeast today. Vermont is on the edge of it. 
Clouds, wildfire smoke and the strength of the 
parent storm system is making today's 
storm forecast difficult and iffy. 

 We all know the humidity was low and gorgeous and pleasant around Vermont yesterday. If you stepped outside for even a second you might have even frizzed your hair a bit. 

It was the kind of summer day we all look forward to. And the tourists from the humid south get excited about. 

We actually tied a pretty substantial record Friday,  The relative humidity plunged to 20 percent in Burlington, tying the record for the lowest relative humidity in July. It's now a three-way tie with July 16, 2018 and July 1, 1975. 

Interestingly, July 1975 and 2018 were both among the top ten warmest on record. This month is running well above normal so far, but the second half looks like it could be in the cool side. 

Another way to look at how dry Friday was is the dew point.  That's the temperature that you would have had to reach to saturate the air. The dew point, as you keep seeing in this blog thingy, is a good measure of how comfortable it feels out there. 

If the dew point is in the 50s, it's nice and pleasant and not at all sweaty. The dew point got its the 30s in many areas Friday. We usually don't see something like that until we're into September.

SMOKY SATURDAY. STORMS, TOO?

The dry, clean air is in the past for now. This morning, the dew point is rising the smoke is back and getting thicker and the rest of the day isn't going to be so wonderful.

South winds are bringing back the smoke that had gotten flushed out of Vermont by Thursday's cold front. That has triggered a state wide air quality alert until 11 p.m. tonight. Especially for those who have lung problems, or are very young, or the elderly 

That's the part of the forecast that is easy, even if it is depressing. 

The next question is the risk of severe storms. Very much like on Tuesday night, the smoke is making the storm forecast challenging. That smoke could be one factor that could limit storms. Maybe.

his is a completely different weather set-up than we had on Tuesday night, so we can't use Tuesday night as an example. 

Fortunately, the core of today's rough weather will be slightly off to our west. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and western and central New York have a three out of five risk of severe storms, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This is an unusually large area to be under this level of a storm alert. 

That area could have numerous strong to severe storms, and probably a few tornadoes. 

That leaves Vermont on the eastern edge of the the severe risk. Roughly south and west of Interstate 89, there's a slight risk of severe storm, a level two out of five risk of storms. That means at least scattered severe weather.  The rest of the state is under marginal risk, one out of five, which means mostly just isolated severe storms.

The parent storm system is unusually strong for July. That adds a lot of energy to the atmosphere, something that could trigger a lot of storms.

But Vermont is not fully getting into the super humid air that fuels storms. It'll turn humid for sure, but it won't get as humid as it possibly could be.  Also, it seems there will be a lot of clouds around today. And smoke. Don't forget that smoke!

The clouds and smoke could hold temperatures down further than they otherwise would be. Hotter air would help fuel storms. Cooler air would tame them down. 

So, we're left with a lot of questions. Will the clouds and smoke thin just in time to juice the atmosphere into severe storms?  Or will the clouds and smoke keep us cool, limiting the storm? 

As noted above, the parent storm is vigorous, so it should overcome the smoke and clouds and produce rounds of showers and storms. The wind is changing direction and strength with height. So, once again, there is a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado. This will be south and west of Interstate 89, with the best chance down near Bennington. 

However, the biggest risk from today's storms is damaging straight line winds. 

After our two tornadoes, and a slew of destructive microburst this summer, this isn't exactly what we need. 

Whether or not we see severe thunderstorms, it's not going to be a nice day. 

It won't rain all the time, but a risk of showers and storms will always be there, through this evening. Between showers and storms winds will be fairly gusty, especially in the Champlain Valley. Boating on Lake Champlain will be tricky, even dangerous for small boats. Plus the smoke. And it will feel increasingly humid. 

Bottom line: Keep an eye on the sky, and - once again - have a way to receive warnings of severe weather warnings. 

So, can the weekend be saved?

SUNDAY

The above question gets a yes answer on Sunday. 

We'll have a day exactly the opposite of what today will bring. We could see some clouds early in the day, but it should turn mostly sunny. The storm's cold front will have flushed most if not all of  the wildfire smoke away.

It will be also be cool for the season. Our first subtle hint of autumn! (Don't worry, summer is far from over).  Highs should stay in the 70s, maybe upper 60s in the cooler hills in the north. The humidity will be at rock bottom, not much different than it was yesterday. 

LOOKING AHEAD

It's an active weather pattern, so a new weather system is due Tuesday night and Wednesday. It's too soon to know the details of what will happen with that next storm, but severe storms and torrential rains are possible. 

Long Vermont Dry Spell Has Begun. At Least North And Central

A little dew on this flower in my St. Albans, Vermont
gardens this morning. But a generally dry forecast
means I will be watering my gardens more than I
have been so far this summer.  

 How dry we will be. With asterisks.

The gradual trend toward less rain in Vermont will really intensity starting, well, on Monday in some places, and by Friday at the latest in others. 

It sounds complicated but it's not, really.

The main cold front toward our long talked about cool down is coming through today, but I'm really not impressed by the action we'll see along it.  

Let's get into it:

TODAY

It's humid out there, still. And a cold front is at our doorstep. That would seem to be a recipe for a lot of rain and thunderstorms. However, there's dry air aloft, plus the push of cooler air will lag behind the actual cold front.

That leaves with us with only a chance of scattered thunderstorms across the state. At this point, it looks like less than half of us in the northern half of the state will see those showers and storms. In southern Vermont, there will just be isolated storms. 

Some of those few storms this afternoon and evening could still be pretty strong. The dry air aloft can get entrained in some of the storms. When that happens, you can get strong bursts of winds from these storms. 

So, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center gives the southeastern two thirds of Vermont a marginal risk of severe storms. That's the lowest of five risk levels. That means maybe one or two places might have wind strong enough to damage trees or power lines, 

I would say maybe only 30 percent of us will get a nice downpour out of these storms. The rest will of us will see anything from nothing to perhaps a mere tenth of an inch of rain. So no biggie.

Since the cooler air will be lagging, today will end up being one more very warm day. Highs in the 80s north, with some low 90s in warmer southern valleys. 

THURSDAY

Boy, you'll notice the change in the air tomorrow. 

The cold front will have gone through Vermont, meaning all of us will face cool weather for a big change. Most of us will see highs only in the 70 to 75 degree range. A few places will stay in the 60s, especially since clouds will help keep temperatures down. 

That cold front still looks like it will stall temporarily in southern New England, A wet little storm will ride along the front, but there remains debate as to how far north the rain with it will come. 

Southern New England looks like it's in for a good drenching with one to as much as three inches of rain anticipated. 

The rain will probably work north into Vermont, but how far and how much is still anybody's guess. 

Meteorologists are anticipating a sharp south to north boundary between heavy rain and practically nothing.

 If I have to take a shot at it, I'd say Bennington and Windham counties in the far south could see a good half inch of rain out of this.  There could be over an inch - maybe - near the Massachusetts border if things turn out just right. 

Light rain could make it as far north as central Vermont, but it will be battling dry air (and a little wildfire smoke) blowing in from the north.  We'll let you know if the forecast changes

In any event, this sets us up for a real dry period, especially in central Vermont. 

DRY ERA

Central Vermont has missed out on the rain lately more than the far north and far south has or will. It also looks like we'll have little or no rain anywhere in Vermont starting Friday.  

Rainfall prediction map for the next seven days.
The light green in northern Vermont depicts just a tenth
of an inch or less. Southern Vermont could get
a half inch or more, but all of that would
come between now and Thursday night. 

Sunny skies and low humidity are in the cards Friday through Monday at least. 

The relatively cool temperatures of Friday and Saturday will recover to slightly above normal temperatures again Sunday and continue all of next week. (Highs in the 80s)

All that dry weather means many of us will be watering our gardens in some cases for the first time since last summer, considering how wet our spring and early summer was. 

The humidity will start to creep up later next week, which opens the door for spot showers and storms starting maybe the middle of next week.

 But at this point, I don't see any widespread drenchers for quite a long time.

This isn't necessarily the start of a drought, but we will have to start being careful with outdoor fires starting this weekend.  The forest fire danger will start to go up.