Wednesday Evening Vermont Flood Update: So Far, Mostly So Good, But New Flash Flood Warning St. J/Lyndonville

Threatening clouds, but so far very little rain in St. 
Albans, Vermont so far today. Can't say the same for
some areas of the state that faced some pretty good 
downpours. Spotty flash flood risk lasts into the
evening, even though we've dodged a bullet so far.

UPDATE 7 PM

OK, bullet NOT dodged.

Just as I feared in my evening update an hour ago, enough rain has fallen in the Northeast Kingdom to prompt a flash flood warning.

The warning includes towns hit super hard yesterday, including St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville.

Up to two inches of rain has already fallen, and up to another 1.5 inches is anticipated soon.

The ground is so soggy and unstable there, that that amount of rain is more than enough so set off flash flooding.

So far, the flash flooding in the Northeast Kingdom doesn't appear to be as extreme as it was Tuesday. However, any added damage and trouble is just more misery for a Northeast Kingdom population that has already been through far too much. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

As of 6 p.m. this Wednesday evening all the flash flood warnings so far seem to be focused on New Hampshire.  Not good for them, but so far, Vermont has mostly dodged a bullet. 

However, a few more bullets might fly our way before the evening is over.  We'll still have to wait and see for the next few hours. 

Slow moving downpours are still crawling through the Green Mountain State. The risk of flash flooding is still there, especially in the Northeast Kingdom.

We have seen quite a few downpours around.  Very hit and miss, though. Some pinpoint places have received more than an inch of rain, while others, like here in St. Albans, had seen just a trace of rain and some rumbles of thunder through 6 p.m. 

The downpours that have limped southwest to northeast across Vermont have further "primed the pump" for possible local flash flooding if they get hit by more torrents of rain.  A flood advisory was hoisted this afternoon for parts of Bennington County, where one to two inches of rain fell in a short period of time. 

I'm noticing some pretty heavy rain has moved into Caledonia and Essex counties as of 6 p.m., so that will need to be watched closely. That's the zone that was so hard hit by Tuesday's floods. Which means even relatively brief downpours can set off more trouble and more damage. 

I'm also watching a heavy area of rain in eastern Addison County, which was moving quite slowly over steep terrain. That could cause trouble. 

Even though we haven't really had any major problems yet, the risk is probably peaking between now and about 9 p.m. as the day's rain - at least where it really poured - is beginning to add up. 

No guarantees we'll have flash flood problems. We might well get lucky.  But it's too soon to let your guard down. Let's wait and see what the next few hours bring.  

Early Afternoon Vermont Flood Update: Risk Beginning Now As Radar Lights Up

The National Weather Service has outlined the are in pink
as the most likely areas to see scattered flash flooding
this afternoon and evening. The Northeast Kingdom,
outlined in red, is especially at risk. 

The thinking of what might happen with rainfall in Vermont this afternoon and evening hasn't changed much since early this morning, which is not great news for the Green Mountain State.  

Not all that much rain has fallen in Vermont this morning. That was expected. As of 12:30 p.m. though, the radar was beginning to light up with more and more scattered downpours. That was expected too. 

These locally torrential downpours should continue here and there throughout Vermont through at least 8 p.m., possibly longer.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, which monitors flooding around the nation, often releases special statements on short-term flood risks in particular areas in the United States.  

One of those, released shortly before 12:30 p.m. says the risk of flooding is now growing in eastern New York, Vermont, much of New Hampshire and parts of western Maine. To wit:

"Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage and lift northward through the evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2+" are likely, which through repeated rounds could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible."

The statement goes on to say that the air is about as wet and humid as it can possible get. (If you have stepped outside in the past hour or so, you know).  That humid air supplies plenty of moisture for the downpours. 

Afternoon instability will increase, as it usually does in the summer, helping to make more showers and thunderstorms blossom. 

Some of the storms could "train" in narrow south to north corridors, coming one right after the other, enhancing the flash flood risk in some zones.  

National Weather Service radar was really beginning to
light up with lots of showers and downpours (in red).
The rain intensity should increase through the afternoon.

The Weather Prediction Statement also - rather obviously - singled out the Northeast Kingdom as prime breeding grounds for new flash flooding this afternoon and evening. 

Not only because of the already soaked ground and high water in streams, but because the steep terrain in many areas can enhance runoff.

I would also say the Green Mountain chain would also be a prime spot for flash flooding. But again, it could happen anywhere if it does. We just don't know where the heaviest rain sets up until it actually happens.

I realize everyone is spooked because of all the floods we've had in the past couple years. I notice in Barre - hard hit by three major floods since last July -   before the rain begins in earnest. The also told residents to stay abreast of weather and emergency updates through the day.

Good advice for everybody, really. 

So, stay tuned for flash flood warnings this afternoon. Race to higher ground if you are under such a warning, don't try to drive through flooded roads. And if you are in a safe spot during a flash flood warning, just stay put.  

Another Vermont Flash Flood Risk Today, It Will Be Hit And Miss Again

Aerial shot of devastation in Lyndonville yesterday, taken
by Vermont Public's Kyle Ambusk. There's a renewed
risk of more flash flooding in Vermont today. 

 Here we go again with another flood risk here in the Green Mountain State today, something that we're all too familiar with.  

While I'm cautiously optimistic we might not see anything quite as extreme as Tuesday morning in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, any added flooding and damage is exactly what we don't need right now. 

Plus the areas that were hardest hit Tuesday are most at risk of renewed flooding today. Soils there pretty much cannot absorb more water, so a downpour will almost automatically translate to renewed flash flooding. 

Areas of Vermont that have avoided heavy rain over the past couple of days have less chances of seeing flash flooding. But if the rain falls hard enough in any given location, it can open new areas of flooding that had remained untouched at least for the past couple weeks. 

DIFFERENCES

Today's weather risk is much different from the one that unfolded early Tuesday.

Tuesday's Northeast Kingdom calamity was caused by an upper level low that locked in the intense thunderstorms over the region for four or five hours. 

I strongly doubt will see rainfall totals like the six to more than eight inches of rain that slammed the Northeast Kingdom Tuesday.  But in areas already soaked, it will only take as little as an inch or two of rain to set off more flash flooding. 

Today's potentially torrentially downpours will move, albeit at a rather grudging pace. They are all traveling in tandem with a more traditional "normal" summertime weather disturbance moving in from the west. 

This disturbance isn't in much of a hurry, which opens up a rather long, six to 12 hour time frame where we potentially can have torrential downpours. 

One thing that is similar to Tuesday is that rainfall amounts will vary widely.  Some towns will see as little as a quarter inch of rain or even a little less, which of course translates to no flooding. However, a short distance away, there could be much, much more, which would put flash flooding in play. 

That situation would lead us to the kind of thing we had yesterday. Town A will be high and dry, while adjacent Town B is facing road washouts and potentially big time property damage. 

DANGER ZONES

The trouble with virtually all Vermont floods, and flood risks, is we don't get much notice of what's to come. In those big river floods in the Midwest you read about from time to time, you know a couple days in advance a flood crest is coming, so you have time to evacuate, and get some of your stuff out of the way. 

Here, we don't have that luxury. 

I'm writing this at around 8 a.m. Wednesday. The risk of flash flooding starts in less than six hours and continues into the evening. I - and everyone else - has no friggin' clue if and where the heaviest rain will set up, and where and if new flash floods develops. 

You'll pretty much find out when and if a flash flood warning is issued for a particular spot. You'll have minutes to react, and that's being generous. We'll just have to wait and see how the day unfolds. 

Remember, this will be localized stuff. The whole state won't flood. There just might be a few unlucky towns and small regions, once again. 

As noted, the Northeast Kingdom is most at risk for trouble today.  The biggest thing to watch is whether more than one downpour hits a particular spot.  If you just had a big downpour a half hour ago and another big burst of rain starts to move in, that's when you need to start worrying at least a little.

In steep terrain where the worst of the rains hit Monday and Tuesday, we'll also need to be on the alert for landslides. I already saw one instance of that along Route 2 near St. Johnsbury yesterday. 

Even if we luck out and don't have much in the way of flash flooding, it's wicked humid out there.  That humidity will actually increase a little more as we go through the day. Those oppressive conditions, and rainfall will only hinder flood cleanup in the Northeast Kingdom.

The risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds is not quite zero, but it's very low. Flash flooding is the focus today. 

TIMING

There were already some showers around this morning. Nothing heavy, nothing scary as of 8 a.m. The showers will increase in coverage and intensity as we go through the day.

The heaviest rains will peak between 2 and 8 p.m. today, then slowly wind down. 

BEYOND TODAY

Hot, humid weather is on tap for Thursday and Friday. There might be some widely scattered thunderstorms a couple of which might have torrential downpours. But those will be few and far between and the risk for new flooding those days is pretty low.

The risk of additional flooding could ramp up again Saturday and Sunday, so we'll keep an eye on that as we get closer to the event.  

Tuesday Evening Update: More Trouble, Current And Forecast, In Storm-Battered Vermont

A house torn apart by this morning's flood in the 
Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Photo from
Vermont State Police via Facebook. 

 Storms erupted this afternoon in parts of Vermont causing a bit of new damage in a few sections of the state.  

And it's not over. A flood watch has been hoisted for Wednesday, covering all but the southernmost two counties of Vermont. 

There's a lot to cover, and we'll take it all piece by piece:

THIS MORNING

We're already staggering again from this morning's Northeast Kingdom calamity. The incredible statistics keep rolling in. 

Matthew Cappucci at the Washington Post picked up the story of the renewed Vermont flooding and came away with data on just how incredible the storm in Caledonia and Essex counties really was. 

Cappucci wrote:

"This also qualifies as a 'thousand-year rain event' for St. Johnsbury, meaning that rain that heavy has only a 0.1 percent chance of falling in any given year, according to data from the National Weather Service. 

The threshold for a thousand-year rain event in St. Johnsbury is 4.32 inches in three hours, or 5.43 in six hours. St. Johnsbury got 5.8 inches in three hours and 7.96 inches in six hours, outpacing even those extreme thresholds."

This is also only the second time in memory that the National Weather Service has issued a flash flood emergency warning. That type of alert is extremely rare and is only issued when there's an extreme threat to life and property. 

The only time we know of that a flash flood emergency warning was issued was during the cataclysmic flooding of July 10-11.

That no known deaths have been reported out of the Northeast Kingdom today is probably a matter of both luck, and flood weary residents of the region "knowing the drill" of what to do when flash floods hit. 

Flood damage in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont
this morning. Photo by Vermont State Police 
via Facebook. 

After all, this is at least the third serious flash flood up there in about a year. Lyndonville Zoning Administrator John Prue told Vermont Public that this is the fifth catastrophic flood to strike the town since last July. 

It turns out that the Northeast Kingdom wasn't the only place affected by flash flooding. Contrary to my reporting this morning, some damage reports are coming out of Rutland County from yesterday afternoon's very local but intense storm. 

A half-mile stretch of Quarterline Road in Rutland was washed out late Monday afternoon, according to a National Weather Service report, and I'm sure a few more local roads were damaged. 

TODAY

Strong to severe storms blossomed in eastern New York this afternoon and blustered into parts of western Vermont.  

The scale of the damage this afternoon as of this evening is far, far, far less than what we saw in the Northeast Kingdom this morning. But we still don't need it. 

A tree collapsed onto a mobile home in Colchester, not far from Lone Pine Camp Ground. More trees came down along North Avenue in Burlington. Another tree fell on Route 7 in Winooski.

As of 6 p.m., no new flooding had been reported from today's batch of storms. They hadn't reached the Northeast Kingdom yet, but were generally heading in that direction, which is a problem. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center tells us all of Vermont is at risk for a few instances of flash flooding through at least 10 p.m. tonight. 

Which isn't great news. Especially given what's coming tomorrow.

WEDNESDAY

 A flood watch for most of Vermont is in effect for tomorrow afternoon and evening due to an expected wave of storms producing torrential downpours. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is maintaining a level 2 out of 4 flood risk for the eastern half of Vermont, but noted this afternoon that this is a high end level 2, so there could be several instances of flash flooding. 

We don't yet know where the heaviest rain will set up tomorrow, so we don't know exactly where the worst flash flooding will hit, if it develops. Of course, the Northeast Kingdom is under the greatest threat, since it wouldn't take much to set off renewed flash flooding there. 

Parts of eastern Rutland County need to be watched carefully, too. 

However, be weather aware as flash flooding could develop suddenly anywhere in the region. Best chances for flash flooding are between about 1 p.m. tomorrow afternoon through about midnight. 

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

Hot and humid weather will once again interfere with flood cleanup Thursday and Friday.  We're still at risk for torrential thunderstorms both days, but they should be few and far between.

Some forecasts ramp up the flood threat again later Saturday and Sunday, so we'll need to keep an eye out for that. 

It doesn't end, does it?  

Northeast Kingdom Flash Flood Waters Receding Fast, But Damage Severe, No Deaths So Far

Severe flood damage near St. Johnsbury
this morning. 

 By some miracle, I have seen no deaths or serious injuries from a highly local, but incredibly extreme flash flooding in the Northeast Kingdom.  

At least as of 1:30 p.m. 

There were two spots in the Northeast Kingdom that really got bullseyed by what amounted to stalled storms. One was centered on St. Johnsbury, the other around Morgan and Island Pond, with plenty of trouble also between those two locations. 

Those two epicenters received five to a little more than eight inches of rain in just four hours. The highest total reported so far was 8.41 inches in one location within St. Johnsbury

At the Fairbanks Museum and Planetarium near downtown St. Johnsbury, the deluge deposited 7.96 inches of rain, making today by far the wettest day in the 130 years weather records have continuously been kept there. The old record was 4.99 inches. 

The torrential rain was highly localize. The eastern end of Danville on the St Johnsbury town line had a whopping 7.4 inches of rain. The western end of town just six miles away barely managed an inch of rain if that. Cabot, immediately to the west of Danville, just had a third of an inch. 

The storm was extreme, but not as widespread as flooding earlier this month. This time, almost all the damage was in Essex and Caledonia counties, corners of Orleans County, and Grafton County, New Hampshire. 

In the Northeast Kingdom, basically if you were about ten miles west of Interstate 91 you had little or no trouble with rain or flooding last night. 

Meteorologists are astounded by amount of rain. Peter Banacos, the science and operations officer at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, told VTDigger the rainfall was "extreme" and "just off the charts to see that kind of rainfall in six hours."

About two dozen people were retrieved by swift water rescuers and are now safe.

There were some very close calls. Vermont Public says.

"'This poor woman had a tiny home built near the river,' said (Lyndonville Fire Chief Jeff) Morrow. "Just as her tiny home got sucked away down the river, she went swimming and my team ended up finding her in the river. She is currently at the hospital, but she's okay."

Another tragic photo from this morning, this one posted 
on Facebook by Jan Eric Welch. 

Dozens of people are stranded behind washout out roads. Authorities told people in the Northeast Kingdom to shelter in place if their homes are not damaged, or at least safe.  Most of East Lyndon and East Burke were cut off from their surroundings. 

It's hot and humid this afternoon, as expected. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were beginning to develop, as forecast, and they will become somewhat more widespread as the afternoon wears on. 

Still, they will be hit and miss. Most of the storms won't cause trouble, unless they focus on areas already hit by the flooding. 

It's possible we could see one or two storms in Vermont become briefly severe this afternoon with damaging winds and microbursts. The vast majority of us should come out of that OK, however.

Forecasters are keeping a close eye on possible more widespread heavy rain again tomorrow

BREAKING: Major, Life-Threatening Flash Flood Slams Vermont's Northeast Kingdom Overnight

 Severe flash flood, catastrophic in some locations has hit Vermont's Northeast Kingdom overnight and early this morning.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington declared a rare flash flood emergency and a particularly dangerous situation

This photo posted to Facebook this morning by Daren
Sweatt shows major flood damage near St. Johnsbury
from last night's torrential rains

- the most dire and hair on fire type of warning - for St. Johnsbury and Danville, plus for a second area around Morgan. 

This is a worst case scenario for the these areas. The flash flooding was unexpected and hit during the pre-dawn hours when people were sound asleep and unaware. 

St. Johnsbury was slammed with an incredible eight inches of rain within four hours. That's about the same amount of rain that would normally fall there over the course of two months. 

We're just starting to get reports from the ground of what's going on in the flash flood zone. We know of swift water rescues in St. Johnsbury. 

Ominous photos are starting to pop up on social media. One shows a destroyed home deposited across a road near St. Johnsbury. Another shows a badly battered car submerged in flood waters, with a swift water rescue team nearby.  Other photos roads entirely washed out. 

Scary damage reports include several homes destroyed in Lyndonville near Calendar Brook and multiple cars under water in East Burke, with no word on whether they were occupied; 

Roads closed by washouts and flooding include Route 5 in St. Johnsbury just south of the Vermont State Police barracks; Route 2 in East St. Johnsbury; Route 5/Memorial Drive in St. Johnsbury; Route 114 in East Burke where a bridge has washed away; Route 111 in Morgan and Route 105 near Brighton State Park.  

The Passumpsic River in Passumpsic went from far below flood stage to moderate flood stage in just 75 minutes. This river is now reaching major flood stage.  This is the same river that caused major flooding on July 11 during Vermont's previous big flood episode earlier this month. 

Route 5 in St. Johnsbury this morning.
Photo via Facebook, Marissa Gadapee

I'm expecting some home and business owners who suffered through floods on July 11 and were just starting to clean up were hit again overnight. Which is beyond awful. 

The flooding overnight was limited to the Northeast Kingdom. Most of the rest of Vermont had little or no rain yesterday and overnight. Montpelier, just 36 miles from St. Johnsbury, reported just 0.09 inches of rain. 

The only other trouble spot yesterday in Vermont was not nearly as severe. Slow moving thunderstorms in Rutland County prompted a flood warning, but little damage was reported. 

The Vermont State Airport just south of Rutland received a little over two inches of rain in two hours. Hail slightly bigger than quarters was reported in North Clarendon. 

WHAT HAPPENED?

An odd, slow moving storm system - essentially a nor'easter with an odd path moved westward off the Atlantic Ocean Sunday night into New England, then slowly northward through New Hampshire yesterday and overnight. 

It's been a weak system that caused little trouble for most of New England. But on its western flank, it causes lift in the atmosphere.  It was sort of the same idea as the band of heavy snow that often sets up in the winter well to the west and north of a nor'easter.

In this case, that lift in the atmosphere interacted with the humid air over us.  Winds in the atmosphere were light, so the storms moved slowly. In the Northeast Kingdom, the dreaded training storms - one right after another in the same spot - set up, causing the catastrophic flash flooding.

This is a weird weather pattern that is incredibly hard to forecast, so it's not surprising that we didn't really have alerts that this would happen until the emergency was unfolding. 

As dawn arrived, this weather set up was breaking down and the storms were moving away. But the damage is done. 

NOT OUT OF THE WOODS

The forecast for the rest of the week in Vermont is not good. Storm risks and possible local flash flooding is in the forecast off and on through Saturday. Here's the day by day breakdown:

Today

Hot and humid again, which is bad for flood recovery in the Northeast Kingdom. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon - hit and miss again. But a couple storms could be severe with isolated reports of damaging winds possible. Worse, these storms could have torrential downpours which could cause new isolated spots of flash flooding.

That's especially true if they hit parts of the Northeast Kingdom and Rutland County that have already received the heavy rain.  However, the threat of new flooding anywhere in Vermont is thankfully pretty low this afternoon and evening. 

Wednesday.

This is the most worrisome day of the bunch. A pretty potent disturbance is set to come through with its own batch of showers and storms.  Heavy downpours will be more widespread than they are today. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has much of Vermont in a Level 2 of a four-point scale of flash flood risk on Wednesday and Wednesday evening.  That means we should expect scattered instance of flash flooding, so we'll need to be on the alert for that.

Thursday/Friday

Very warm to hot, quite humid again as this grinds on.  We should see scattered storms in the afternoon and evening both days, but at this point, anyway, it doesn't look like it will be anything widespread.

Saturday

A cold front will be approaching marking the beginning of a change in this weather pattern.  That's the good news. The bad news is this cold front could increase heavy showers and storms again, which would increase a local flash flood threat again.

Sunday and Beyond

The forecast is still a little iffy, but signs suggest a turn to cooler, much less humid air, with a much lower chance of heavy rain.  There's still questions as to when the cold front comes through and how far south it gets once it passes, but the signals are hopeful 

Miss Lyndonville Diner, Iconic Northeast Kingdom Eatery Latest Victim Of Vermont Floods. Will Other Loved Businesses Go Too?

The Miss Lyndonville Diner, shown here inundated in
this image from the Caledonian Record, will not
reopen after 46 years in business. 

 Weather and climate disasters keep threatening and in some cases taking away some of our iconic business, attractions and buildings. Then latest flood has taken a treasured Vermont diner away from us.  

The Miss Lyndonville Diner, a Northeast Kingdom fixture since 1978, will not re-open after it was damaged in this year's July 10-11 flood. 

It's a sign that weather and climate disasters are having a real impact on the fabric of Vermont life and culture. We risk losing much more as the threats of further floods and severe storms increase in the coming years and decades. 

As Seven Days reports:

"Janet Gray Burnor, who has owned the diner for 46 years, plans to sell the business.

'I'm choosing to rebuild but not reopen,' Burnor, 72, told Seven Days on Friday morning.

Still, the closure of the Northeast Kingdom staple 'feel like a death in the community,' she said, getting choked up. 'We are heartbroken. I completely understand the community's reaction to this loos, and I have tremendous gratitude. They've never let us down.'"

Like most of these situations, the the flood isn't the only reason why the Miss Lyndonville is shutting down. 

The Covid pandemic took a toll on just about every restaurant in the universe. Including the Miss Lyndonville. 

The circumstances that ultimately shut down the restaurant were pretty abrupt, though. On the day of the flood, the Miss Lyndonville was busy with customers and staff when water from the nearby Passumpsic River surged across the street toward the restaurant.

Manager Travis Butts got everybody out safely, then he got stuck in the flooding restaurant while shutting down the restaurant, Seven Days reports. So he made himself a sandwich and headed to the roof, where he awaited either rescue or for the water to go down. 

A foot of water inside the Miss Lyndonville caused a lot of damage. Burnor said she will repair the building, and then put it up for sale. 

These weather and climate related sad moments affect people far and wide. Obviously the Lyndonville community will feel this acutely.

People with even the thinnest ties to Lyndonville feel it, too.   I attended what was then Lyndon State College in the early 1980s, trying (and failing) to obtain a meteorology degree. The Miss Lyndonville was a staple, and we were there a lot. I know hundreds of other people who went to that college will lament the loss of the Miss Lyndonville, too. 

At least we can still hope that this isn't the end of the Miss Lyndonville. It could be just a new chapter.  We're hoping it doesn't change too much if it reopens, and the signs are positive that it might not.

Seven Days reports: 

"When the business sells, Burnor said, she'll offer to run a training class for the new owners' dining room staff to 'to instill the difference between an 'order taker' and someone who cares about the people they're dealing with, she explained."

The Miss Lyndonville isn't the only iconic place we've lost to weather and climate disasters here in Vermont. 

During the July, 2023 flood most of the Inn by the River in Hardwick collapsed into the raging Lamoille River. The inn had been getting increased business which was good for the economically strapped town. The owners opted not to rebuild, and the wreckage of the inn was removed the day before this year's July flooding. 

Whole communities are at risk. 

Downtown Montpelier, badly victimized by the July, 2023, avoided trouble this year. But the business district faces an uncertain future. 

The flood put retailers and others out of business for months. Foot traffic downtown was already lame due to Covid and the introduction of widespread remote work, and that state of affairs continues today. 

The Capital Plaza Hotel, shuttered after the flood, reopened in the spring. Businesses have re-opened in town, and some new businesses appeared. But the success is shaky. It could take just one more inundation to kill or at least badly diminish downtown Montpelier permanently. 

Business owners might look elsewhere to make a living, abandoning beautiful, but flood-prone downtowns like Montpelier. 

VTDigger reported this example back in April:

"Brian Lewis owns the Yellow Mustard sandwich shop and the recently opened Filibuster Cafe in Montpelier. He also owns restaurants in Middlesex and South Burlington.

'I am running $800 per day in labor and bringing in $1,200 a day in sales in Montpelier, but I also have to pay for utilities, rent, food and insurance,' he said. If I am not making money in Montpelier, what is the point of being here? I have other locations and opportunities.'"

Then there's Barre, where downtown, and other large swaths of the city flooded in both July 2023 and 2024.  I think it's too soon after this year's flood to assess its future, and I haven't seen any news regarding that. As I've said in previous posts, I'm deeply worried about the viability of Barre. 

This is repeating in towns throughout Vermont. Plainfield lost housing stock to this year's  flood just a couple months after Goddard College in town announced its permanent closure. The uncertainty of what happens to the Goddard property combined with the trauma of this year's catastrophic flooding definitely has residents wondering what the future will hold, and what Plainfield will look like five or ten years down the road.

Climate change disasters as slowly changing the face of Vermont. Our built-in bias here in the Green Mountain State is to resist change. That's a lot of the reason why the beautiful old architecture of downtowns like Montpelier, St. Albans and Rutland haven't changed all that much in the past century. 

But change we must. There's flood mitigation, buyouts and more that have to be done. That's doubly hard when the wheels of federal bureaucracy turn slowly and hinder the process. 

And maybe, the Miss Lyndonville might eventually revive and thrive, and with it, hopefully the rest of Vermont will somehow do the same, with or without climate change.  

Vermont Week Ahead: Some Changes To Forecast, But Humidity, Local Downpours To Dominate

Here we go again. Smoke and haze obscure the view
of the Champlain Valley from St. Albans Hill on
Saturday. You can barely make out 
Lake Champlain in the distance. 

 It's been gorgeous, but kind of smoky here in Vermont the past day or two, and that state of affairs should continue today. 

But a weird twist in the weather pattern has changed the forecast for early in the week. More on that in a bit. 

The smoke from western wildfires is now covering much of North America - they're that bad. 

We will have to put up with smoke off and on for weeks, probably.  The fires aren't so much in Quebec like last year, so they're not as close to Vermont as they were in 2023.

Which means we will likely escape the thick smoke that choked us a few times last year.

Air quality, though isn't perfect. The Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation rated the air quality yesterday and this morning as "moderate." Which means the air is not clean and fresh, but is falling short of being really dangerous. 

Plus the deep blue skies we all like have been replaced by sort of greyish slate blue. At least the sunrises and sunsets mixed with the smoke are pretty. 

"STORM" CHANGES FORECAST

Now, here's the odd twist to the forecast.

For days, we've been touting Monday as the hottest day in an upcoming stretch of very warm weather. It was supposed to be almost a slam dunk for at least a few Vermont towns getting up to 90 degrees. 

Instead a weird little storm has gotten going pretty far off the Mid-Atlantic coast.  As it moves north, it's expected to take a hard left turn and go pretty much westward into southeastern New England tonight. 

It is an odd little bugger, not only because of its non-traditional path.  It's definitely not a tropical storm, as it's carrying a coolish pool of air aloft with it. But has a few sort of subtropical characteristics thrown in because it's feeding off warm Gulf Stream waters that are even warmer than normal. 

Overall, it's sort of a way out of season nor'easter. 

Luckily, it's not strong, so it won't really cause much trouble. The New England sea coast will have to deal with showers and scattered downpours, some gusty winds and rip currents, which of course are dangerous to beachgoers. 

As it moves into interior New England Monday,  it will throw clouds across Vermont, and maybe some light showers south and east.  

The storm will essentially act as a cold front of sorts coming in from the southeast.  Cold fronts almost always come at us from the west and north, so this is another odd aspect to Monday's weather. 

The clouds and slightly cooler maritime air will keep southeastern Vermont in the low 80s at best Monday. Further away from this thing in northwestern Vermont, it just puts a lot of questions into the forecast for high temperatures. 

If the storm over-performs with clouds, we stay in the low 80s up by Burlington and that neck of the woods. If the clouds are thinner, we could see upper 80s. Ninety degree weather looks much less likely than it did, though. 

One nice thing about this weird storm is that it will temporarily bring in some of that ocean air, which lacks the wildfire smoke that's been coming at us for a couple days. 

BEYOND THAT

On Tuesday, the remnants of our weird little storm will head north through Vermont and out into Quebec, spreading some hit and miss showers and possible thunderstorms along the way. Nothing too scary, though. Tuesday will start a long stretch of muggy summer weather. 

Another disturbance - a much more traditional, rather weak, normal type of summer system - comes in Wednesday with a batch of showers and storms. Wednesday at this point looks like it'll be the day with the most activity. 

There could even be one or two strong to severe storms, but most of us will escape that. With the humidity building, some torrential rainfall is possible in spots, but again nothing widespread and not a huge flood risk. 

Beyond that, very warm, oppressively humid weather Thursday through Saturday starts off August. There's the ever-present chance of afternoon and evening hit and miss showers and storms during the period. 

Climate Denialists Use 1930s Heat As A Red Herring

 It seems like every time somebody mentions climate change on social media, some clown will interject "but the 1930s!"

From Berkeley Earth: Maps show how far
above or below the 20th century average
summertime high temperatures were in the
1930s (top) and the period 2013-2022
(bottom). So no, the world was NOT hotter
in the 1930s, despite extreme heat
in central North America. 

That's because many of the worst heat waves in U.S. history happened then. In 14 states, the  hottest temperatures on record came in July, 1936 and those records still stand.  

Many cities in the Great Plains, Midwest and Middle Atlantic States still have all time record highs occurring in the 1930s. 

The denialists are absolutely correct that the heat in the middle of North America as off the charts in the 1930s. 

What the forget to note is most of the rest of the world was relatively cool. They kinda take the "globe" out of global warming. 

They also don't talk about the reasons why those summers were so hot.  Farming practices contributed to the heat. Also, there are natural cycles that will make certain place especially hot or cold, and this will happen with or without climate change.  

The denialists also forget about the fact that there were intensely, record cold winters in the 1930s, and the winter cold was much more widespread than the summer heat. 

DUST BOWL HEAT REASONS

The 1930s brought the Great Depression, which was bad enough, and the famous "Dust Bowl" years. 

The University of Nebraska National Drought Mitigation Center tells us what led to the heat and the Dust Bowl:

"'Boosters of the region, hoping to  promote settlement, put forth glowing but inaccurate accounts of the Great Plains' agricultural potential. In addition to this inaccurate information, most settlers had little moment and few other assets, and their farming experience was based on conditions in the more humid eastern United States, so the crops and cultivation practices they chose were often not suitable for the Great Plains. 

But the earliest settlements occurred during a wet cycle, and the first crops flourished, so settlers were encouraged to continue prices that would later have to be abandoned."

Then, as Yale Climate Connections explains, natural cycles with roots in far away oceans contributed to an intense Great Plains drought from about 1928 to around 1942. 

This cycle encouraged the familiar "heat dome" we so frequently talk about nowadays to set up shop over the middle of North America.  

Those bad agricultural practices created vast expanses of bare soil that absorbed the sun's heat to maximize the sun's heating. That made temperatures soar to unprecedented levels. Those record highs stand to this day. 

The heat was so intense it was able to spread into south-central Canada and the Mid-Atlantic States. But much of the world avoided this disaster, partly because climate change hadn't kicked in yet. 

COOL ELSEWHERE   

Vermont was much like the rest of the world in the 1930s. We sat out the 1930s dust bowl heat. July, 1936 was cooler than normal. Burlington that month only made it to 90 twice, and reached 80 or above just eight days during the entire month. 

July, 1934 was also extremely hot in the Great Plains and other parts of the nation. Not so here in Vermont. July that year in Burlington had close to average temperatures, but the hottest it got all month was one day of 90 degree temperatures. 

Berkeley Earth did a comparison showing how average daily maximum temperatures worldwide during the 1930s compare to "normal" base on 1951-1980.

The maps show central North America was indeed very hot. Much of Europe was on the warm side, too. But vast areas of the world were a little on the cool side during Depression-era summer afternoons. 

If you look at the 1930s based on the whole year, not just the summer, you see that central North America was only barely warmer than average. Intensely cold winters during the 1930s offset those hot summers. 

Meanwhile, the most recent ten year period cited in the data  from 2013 to 2022 shows almost the entire world was warmer than in the 1930s. In many cases much warmer. 

 That climate denial trolls keep citing the 1930s heat in the Great Plains is a classic example of "cherry picking."

As Andrew Kessler and Zeke Hausfather wrote in The Climate Brink last year:

"Cherry picking is a tactic where someone selectively chooses a small portion of a data set that contradicts the conclusion drawn from the entire dataset. This aims to mislead the audience by presenting a distorted picture of reality, leading them to question established facts."

In other words, they're practicing the art of Kellyanne Conway's famous "alternative facts." Another word for all this is gaslighting.

Always look out for that. 

The bottom line: No, the world wasn't hotter in the 1930s. Turns out that's a pants on fire lie. 

 

This Will Probably Be the Best Vermont Summer Weather Weekend Of The Summer

The table is set for probably the best weather weekend
of this summer in Vermont. 

UPDATE 6 PM FRIDAY

Today worked out just about as expected in what I wrote this morning. There's a bit more wildfire smoke in the air than I thought there'd be. 

Still not much, but enough to make the 

are quality go from good to just moderate at times. 

This might be the state of affairs all weekend. Other than that, the forecast I outlined below for Saturday and Sunday hasn't changed much at all from what I wrote below.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 For Vermont summer weather enthusiasts, and for tourists who picked this weekend to come to the Green Mountain State, this is your weekend.  

It'll have everything you need: A lot of sunshine, some comfortable nights, a warm but temperate Saturday and a fairly hot Sunday - perfect for a visit to the beach.

In other words we're in for a respite from the storms, downpours and humidity that always seemed to hang over our heads. Or at least threaten to.  

The cold front that came through Thursday had a little more oomph than I thought it might. By late afternoon, temperatures in the northern half of the state had fallen into the low 70s. It actually felt genuinely cool out there, something I haven't experienced in awhile. 

This morning, we're starting off with temperatures within a couple degrees of 60. The humidity is low, the air is fresh. 

Which sets the tone for the weekend. 

We'll almost have wall to wall sunshine today through Sunday.  The sky will occasionally be dotted with some fair well cumulus clouds during the days. Mostly for decoration and to grace the Instagram photos you'll be taking. Or something like that. 

The sky could also have a hazy quality to it at times, thanks to worsening wildfires in western Canada and the western United States. Any smoke will remain aloft, so air quality should stay pretty safe.

Being the pessimist the I can be, I'm looking for some other potential problems that'll interfere with this great weather. I'm coming up almost empty.  A weak disturbance might set off an isolated light shower in the Northeast Kingdom this afternoon. Any showers will come and go in a flash. But without lightning flashes. No thunderstorms today. 

I wonder if a tiny, weak upper level disturbance moving inland from the New England coast could throw clouds our way to an extent Sunday. But right now the air looks too dry, and the lame disturbance too weak and too far east to create any unexpected overcast. 

Temperatures will be on an uphill climb between today and Sunday. It should get to near 80 today with low humidity. Which means today is your best bet for exertion, like hiking to the summit of Camels Hump or something like that. 

After another comfortable night, Saturday gets  little warmer, sneaking up into the low 80s. Sunday is your beach day with temperatures in many areas getting into the upper 80s.  Traditional banana belt towns in parts of the Champlain Valley could flirt with 90.  Humidity on Sunday will be reasonable, though. 

BACK TO THE GRIND

Once we get into the new work week after our fun weekend, it's back to the grind. Both for work and the kind of weather we'll have.

It'll be back to daily warmth, humidity and thunderstorm and downpour risks. At this stage of the game, Monday looks like it should stay rain-free for the vast majority of us.  It'll be well into the 80s to maybe near 90 again, and you'll notice the humidity creeping up on us. 

Then, for the rest often week, the Bermuda High will keep pumping very warm, humid air our way, while weak, slow moving disturbances pushing in will bring us daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. 

It's impossible to tease out which days will be the stormiest, but in general, most of the lightning and downpours should come in the afternoons and evenings.

Our sunny weekend will help soils dry out, so that might limit flash flood risks in the downpours, unless they persist for days. 

One cautionary tale comes from the long range forecasts. 

If the six to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks are correct - and there's absolutely no guarantee of that - then we could be in for some volatile weather in the opening days of August. 

The forecast hot temperatures and above normal rainfall - if they actually happen - imply humidity and the atmospheric sparks that could trigger torrential rains and possibly severe storms or even renewed localized flash floods.   That's something that Vermont can live without after what has so far been a rather hot and stormy summer. 

Another Tornado Fairly Close To, But Not IN Vermont

Power lines arc in this screen
grab of last evening's tornado
in Brossard, Quebec.

On July 18, I told you how this summer, tornadoes have had a habit of spinning in unusual numbers in the Northeast, close to Vermont, but not IN the Green Mountain State.  

We just had another example Wednesday. 

This time, a tornado touched down in Brossard, Quebec, which is immediately across the St. Lawrence River from Montreal.  Brossard is roughly 50 miles from the border crossing in Highgate, Vermont. 

The tornado last evening in Brossard damaged the roofs of at least two commercial buildings, overturned a tractor trailer truck. The driver suffered minor injuries. The twister also uprooted trees. Video of the tornado showed debris flying in the air and power flashes as the storm snapped electrical lines. 

Other possible tornadoes on Wednesday touched down about 35 miles southwest of Quebec City and roughly 40 miles northwest of Montreal, says Environment Canada. 

In our general area, a few severe thunderstorms popped up in northwestern New York during the day Wednesday and caused a bit of tree and power line damage.

 A severe thunderstorm warning was briefly issued for parts of far northwestern Vermont last evening as a strong storm developed near Chazy, New York. But that storm quickly weakened as it crossed Lake Champlain into Grand Isle and Franklin counties in Vermont. 

One to two dozen  tornadoes occur virtually every year across the southern half of Quebec.  Most are pretty minor. 

Much like in the United States, Canada's "tornado alley" of sorts has been shifting east. Both the northeastern United States, and Ontario and Quebec have in recent year seen an uptick in twisters.

Last year was an exception, with only ten Quebec tornadoes, but there seems to be a fair number so far this year. Examples include a fairly destructive one west of Montreal on May 27, and three others in the province on June 13. 

Meanwhile, a remarkable 21 tornadoes have been confirmed in New York State this July, bringing the total for the year to 23. The most tornadoes in a single year across New York is 25 in 1992. The latest confirmed tornado was a brief EF-0 Wednesday in Broadalbin, New York. 

For those of us who don't like tornadoes, thunderstorms, much less tornadoes are unlikely in most of New England and Quebec through Monday.  Certainly no tornadoes are in the forecast for that period. 

Global Temperature Record Set Sunday, Then Broken Again On Monday

The world had its hottest day on record this past Monday, at least by one measurement. 

Earth had its warmest day on record Sunday, at least by
one measurement. Then that record was broken on Monday.

Bear with me, as this will be a little number-heavy, but here goes:  

According to the European Copernicus Climate Change Service, on Monday, July 22, the global average temperature was 17.15 Celsius, or 62.87 degrees Fahrenheit. 

This broke the record set a day earlier, on July 21, 

The global average temperature on July 21 was 17.09 Celsius, or 62.76 degrees Fahrenheit.

That record which lasted a day is an almost indistinguishable bit higher than the previous record, 17.08 degrees Celsius (62.74 F) set on July 6, 2023.

What is striking is how much hotter the world has been in 2023 and 2024 than in previous years and decades. For 13 months ending in recent weeks. global temperatures have run far above any previous levels. 

Says Copernicus: 

"Before July 2023, the previous daily global average temperature record was 16.8 degrees Celsius (62.24 degrees F) on August 13, 2016, Since 3 July 2023, there have been 57 days that have exceeded that previous record, distributed between July and August, 2023 and during June and July so far in 2024."

The difference between 62.24 and 62.76 degrees F doesn't seem like much at all, but if you average out the whole world, that's a pretty big gap. 

And if you look at the charts showing the temperatures globally every year since 1940, the temperatures in 2023 and 2024 look really out of whack warm.  Back in the mid-1970s,  the peak global temperature annually was around 15.5 degrees Celsius, or 60.35 degrees F.  

This is one of a zillion measures of how climate change is making the world a vastly different place. The records this week will surely be exceeded again. Not sure if it will happen this week,  next week, next summer or a few years from now, but it's inevitable. 

Click on this chart to make it bigger and easier to see.
It shows that through 2023 and 2024 until 
recently, global temperatures have run far
above any other previous years. The lighter-
colored squiggles represent every year
from 1940 to 2022.

A big winter warm spell - at least by their frigid standards - in Antarctica contributed to this week's records by skewing the data even more towards warm. 

Although a new record beyond Monday's could be set this week or next, data indicates global temperatures will back off ever so slightly in the coming days. 

Some scientists say Monday might have been Earth's hottest day in 100,000 years. 

Even though Antarctica contributed to the world's warmth, if you're going to break the record for the world's hottest day, you pretty much have to do it in June, July or August. 

It's winter in the Southern Hemisphere, of course, but Copernicus explains why global temperatures peak in the Northern Hemisphere summer. 

"The global average temperature tends to reach its annual peak between late June and early August, coinciding with the Northern Hemisphere summer. This is because the seasonal patterns of the Northern Hemisphere drive the overall global temperatures. 

The large land masses of the Northern Hemisphere warm up faster than the oceans of the Southern Hemisphere can cool down during the northern summer months. "

In the days and weeks before Sunday and Monday, the global average temperatures was flirting with  near-record levels hovering just slightly below the levels of 2023.  

Global average temperatures have been setting record highs for their respective dates for more than a year before a few fell below those marks earlier this July.  Outside of summer, of course, the global average temperature are cooler than their peak which comes annually around now.   

We in Vermont sat out the world's hottest day. Temperatures Sunday and Monday here were close to normal for our region.   Sunday was Burlington's  third coolest so far this month which overall has been warmer than normal, as you've probably noticed.     

Where Are All The Hurricanes? They're Unfortunately Still On The Way

Satellite view of Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean
on July 2. Since then, there has pretty much been
no tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. But experts
say the forecasted very busy hurricane season is
still on the way, with things likely ramping up 
big time during August. 

This year's hurricane season got off to its expected horrible start in late June when Hurricane Beryl, the strongest hurricane in the Caribbean for so early in the season, started its horrible path of catastrophe in the Windward Islands. 

On into early July, Beryl caused disaster and heartache in Jamaica, Mexico, Texas (especially the Houston area), Arkansas, the Ohio Valley, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and Nova Scotia. 

Since then, pretty much nothing, thank goodness. Except a nothing burger Tropical Storm Chris on June 30, which lasted barely 12 hours and never produced winds much above tropical storm force. 

This has people asking, "I thought this was supposed to be a super-charged, incredibly busy hurricane season."  

As recently as July 9, the closely watched Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast was updated to actually slightly increase the expected number of storms from its previous already record breaking busy prediction. 

So where are the tropical storms and hurricanes? As of Wednesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center was forecasting no tropical storm development for at least 48 hours, probably even more. 

Ominously, they're still coming. 

Let's just say the National Hurricane Center isn't granting any PTO to its employees in August, September and October. 

After Beryl's departure, vast clouds of dust from the Sahara Desert blew westward across the Atlantic Ocean, precisely in the band in the tropics where hurricanes are most likely to form. 

Saharan dust tends to stifle tropical storm development. These clouds of Saharan dust over the Atlantic are very common in June and July, which is one reason why tropical storms and hurricanes are relatively rare during the first half of summer. 

This year's July dust is by one measure the second-densest since 2002.  However, like virtually every year in history, the dust is getting set to sharply diminish as we head into August.  That'll help tropical storms form. 

There's also a natural cycle that happens every few weeks in which the air over the areas in the Atlantic where hurricanes want to form that causes sinking air. Sinking air prevents the thunderstorms that are wannabe tropical storms from forming. 

That sinking cycle has been over the storm forming region recently, but is now starting to move on. 

So: The dust is going away, the sinking air is going away, the oceans keep heating up more and more, and that's jet fuel for hurricanes.  We're also shifting into a global La Nina pattern which should really start to gets its legs steady in August. 

All those signs point to the Atlantic Ocean exploding with storms during August, especially in the second half, when hurricanes really start to form easily in normal years, much less setups like we're seeing now. 

Already, some long range forecasts are starting to detect signs of a possible tropical storm or storms forming in the first week of August. 

Where all the expected tropical storms and hurricanes go will determine whether we'll have more disasters and calamities like Beryl. 

Vermont Storm Chances Iffy, Risk Of Oncoming Heat Wave Not So Iffy

A peaceful, sunny summer early morning in St. Albans, 
Vermont today. Sun will struggle with clouds,
showers and storms again later today. 

 I was a bit concerned yesterday afternoon and evening as slow moving downpours seem to linger over north central Vermont, mostly along and a little south of Route 2.  

Those were the areas hit hard by the flooding this month, and they didn't need more of it.  

Luckily, the downpours were small in size. And they did move around a little, so I so far see no reports of any further damage. No flood warnings. All good. For once. 

It looks like there were just pinpoint spots of downpours that might have left behind an inch or two of rain.  Most towns didn't get all that much rain,For instance, Montpelier picked up around a half inch of rain Tuesday, which was manageable. 

Summer does bring variable rainfall.  Here's a great example. Between unexpected heavier showers late Saturday night and rain early Tuesday morning, my unofficial rain gauge picked up 1.1 inches of rain. Meanwhile, just 30 miles to the south, Burlington received just 0.1 inches of rain in that time. 

TODAY/THURSDAY

We got more hits and misses to go today and to a lesser extent tomorrow. Summer rainfall forecasts are almost always frustrating. You know there's going to be showers and storms. You just don't know who will get a sprinkle and who will get drenched. 

There's an excellent chance of showers and storms in Vermont this afternoon and evening. In fact, we're still in a marginal risk area for excessive rain, says NOAA, which means there could be an isolated instance of flash flooding again later today. 

It won't be anything widespread. There's a somewhat greater risk of local flooding in the Adirondacks of New York, which received heavier rain Tuesday morning, and has a better chance of seeing torrential rain later today than Vermont does.

In a post I made yesterday, I mentioned Thursday might have a slightly better chance of local flash floods. The good news is since yesterday, forecasters have backed way off on the chances of heavier rain tomorrow. 

Weak boundaries and a cold front are coming through a little earlier than was thought and previous forecasts. That means we won't have as much time during the heat of the day to develop torrential storms. There will be some scattered stuff around but nothing super scary.

HEAT WAVE?

Widespread heat is expected again in the U.S.
next week. For the Central Plains and 
northern New England, the chances of
hot weather are pretty much a slam dunk. 

While the hit and miss nature of summer storms sometimes puzzles forecasters and especially the public, confidence is growing that we're in for another hot spell.

Initially, tomorrow's cold front will introduce a short spell of very reasonable humidity, comfortable nighttime sleeping weather and gorgeous days starting Friday afternoon and continuing Saturday. 

The weekend looks to be classic summer, with seasonably warm (low 80s) temperatures on Saturday and readings way up in the 80s on Sunday with sunny skies.  

After that, the high pressure coming in from southern Canada will merge with the Bermuda High, leasing to a strong northward bulge in the jet stream over the Northeast and eastern Canada.

That will introduce a potentially long lasting spell of hot weather beginning in earnest Monday and possibly continuing most of, or all of next week. 

A six to 10 day outlook from NOAA covering July 29 to August 2 is as confidence at you can possibly get that we'll have above normal temperatures in our neck of the woods. 

How hot it actually will get depends on whether thunderstorms get added to the mix or if any upper level disturbances can temper the heat and humidity a bit. But if you like cool, dry breezes, next week won't be your week. 

New Mexico Continues To Endure Post Wildfire Flash Floods, Video Shows How Fast They Come

 A  gorgeous area of southern New Mexico can't catch a weather break.  

A motorist wisely turns around as floodwaters surge
across a road in Riuidoso, New Mexico las 
Saturday. The road was dry and clear three minutes earlier.

I told you back on July 4 about Ruidoso, New Mexico, which keeps getting hit by floods after wildfires in the surrounding hills. As of the Fourth of July, the denuded hillsides yielded flash floods and debris flows as downpours hit the area.  

Since then, it's kept getting worse. 

Says the Washington Post:

Ruidoso, a scenic town of nearly 8,000 in southern New Mexico, is now at the mercy of an enduring, double-barreled disaster. Two massive fires broke out last month along the mountains encircling the town, torching more than 25,000 acres, burning nearly a thousand homes and killing two people.

Then, eight times and counting since June 21, including Saturday, floodwaters have cascaded down those same mountainsides into the village."

The trees and shrubs that held the steep hillsides surrounding Ruidoso used to keep the rocks and soil up there in place. The fires removed all that. So now, as Andrew Mangham, a National Weather Service hydrologist told the Washington Post, it's as if giant plastic sheets have been placed over the mountains. 

Those "plastic sheets" are littered with teetering burned tree trunks and piles ash that start sliding downhill at the slightest bit of bad weather. Which means even run of the mill routine summer thunderstorms are setting off the flash floods and big debris flows. 

Flooding this past Saturday was probably the worst yet.   Rain Friday night and early Saturday soaked what little ground was left, then new downpours struck in the afternoon.  Ruidoso officials said prior to Saturday, the highest the water got in one main creek was 12.5 feet. Saturday, it reached 15.5 feet, so that must have damaged homes worse than previous events.

The video in this link shows what it's like, and is really worth watching.  Notice how fast the water comes up and crossed the road. Also notice the road above the water is dry. All the rain that caused this latest wave hit in the hills above. (I'm having you click on the link to the video rather than just display it so they videographer can collect the clicks and views). 

In the initial part of the video, a couple cars make it through, but afterwards, motorists wisely opted to obey the "Turn Around Don't Drown"  rule. The water and debris quickly overruns and cuts around temporary dikes built to protect property.

The video is a cautionary tale for anyone, anywhere demonstrating how suddenly a flash flood goes from not a big deal to big time dangerous.

The videographer of the above, Jesus Figuera, has a whole YouTube channel devoted to what Ruidoso is going through, and it's definitely worth checking out. 

It's monsoon season in the Southwest, which means the area is in for more downpours, and more floods.  It will take years for the hills around Ruidoso to recover enough to hold water and soil in place.

 

 

Peak Of Summer Brought Us A Brief Break. Now It's Back To Humidity, Downpours, And Eventually Heat Again

On average, if you have to pick the exact height of summer, it's right around July 21.

My Quick Fire Hydrangeas are what I consider at their 
peak and prettiest right now. They follow the season starting
off white in early summer, turning pink at the peak of summer
and gradually going to a russet in the autumn. 

That's right around the time we've had half our heat waves, half our spells of humidity. The hottest days of summer are often right around that date. 

You start to notice the start of a journey toward autumn about now.   

Vermonts trees, forests and hillsides are still the royal green of summer, but a few of the leaves are looking tired or ragged. If you look closely, you see hints of red in the swamp maples.  

As I sat out in my yard last evening, I noticed a relative lack of birds compared to spring and early summer. We're starting to see the sun set a little earlier. 

July 21 this year turned out to be a little cooler than it has been lately, belying the reputation as the peak of summer.  The high temperature in Burlington Sunday was 79 degrees. That ended a streak of 19 consecutive days with high temperatures of 80 degrees or more. The streak was good enough to become the sixth longest set of consecutive 80s on record. The longest such streak was 29 days in 2018.

Chances are, the hottest temperature of this summer came early in the season. The toastiest we've gotten so far, at least as measured in Burlington, was 96 degrees on June 19.

We might be halfway through summer, but there's plenty of it left. Plenty of time for more downpours, sunny days, heat waves, you know the drill.

UP NEXT

As of today, Vermont's summer weather of 2024 is up to its old tricks. Like we've seen so often this summer, it's gotten humid and wet, with locally heavy downpours. That'll be our state of affairs through Thursday.  

As has been so often the case this summer, National
Weather Service radar is lit up with rain, with 
locally  heavy downpours in red. Image is
from around 6:40 a.m. today. 

Rainfall has been highly variable overnight and early this morning, as is typical of summer. The northern Adirondacks of New York have had enough downpours to trigger a local flood warning up there early today. 

Areas of heavy rain also showed up on radar across far northern Vermont, though I haven't seen any indication of a flood risk there. 

Meanwhile, Burlington had just 0.04 inches of rain as of 7 a.m. 

We'll need to watch out - once again - for instances of flash flooding over the next three days, with Thursday the likeliest day to produce trouble. If indeed we get any trouble. 

The risk of flash flooding is the usual harassment we've had all summer: There's a chance of isolated flood problems, but nothing widespread or super scary like on July 10-11. 

The rain we're getting this morning will tend to taper off as we head toward noon. In the afternoon, we'll see some more showers and thunderstorms erupt.  That's when an isolated, slow moving thunderstorm in one or two spots could cause some new local washouts or culvert problems. The chances of this happening today are quite low, but not zero.

The sticky weather that's returned will, um, stick around for a few more days. Nights will be stuffy, but at least days will only reach the low 80s, as clouds and showers will hold temperatures down a little. 

Wednesday will be sultry again with the usual hit and miss storms. Afternoon and evening are the most likely times for that, as usual.

We start to get some weak boundaries and cold fronts approaching and passing through Thursday, which will make even more showers and downpours and storms erupt in the humid air. That's why I'm eyeing Thursday as a potential flash flood day, again in a few isolated places. Most of us will be fine, but we'll need to keep an eye out. 

DRYING OUT?

Beyond that, there's good news and bad news. High pressure that originated in south central Canada will drift in from the west and northwest by Friday.  There's been record heat in central and western Canada, so the air with this one is warm. 

Friday and Saturday might well end up being warmer than earlier in the week. But the humidity will temporarily crash so we'll have a couple of fairly comfortable sleeping nights and some really decent beach days over the weekend.

Bonus: As it looks now, we might have at least four consecutive days of rain-free weather with this. 

This high pressure looks like it will want to strengthen overhead and also team up with the dreaded offshore Bermuda High. Early indications are this will set us up for another hot spell, with more 90 degree days possible starting Sunday or Monday.