Flood Threat In Vermont Diminishes For Next Storm, But Does Not Entirely Disappear.

More rain on the way, but it doesn't look like enough
to cause more flooding. Most places should see an
inch or less Sunday night and Monday, though a 
couple places could see locally higher amounts. 

Weather forecasters are a little more relaxed about the chances of flooding with the Sunday night and Monday.  

We're still going to get a bunch of rain Sunday night and Monday. And we hope you like humid weather because we have plenty of it coming up. But overall, we're in the midst of a decent summer weekend. We've been lucky with these weekends. 

REST OF TODAY

A good summer day is underway once again. We've had a lot of Saturdays like this. The sun will be out most of the time. As far as rain goes, there's the slightest of chances of an isolated showers over the mountains, but that's it. 

Highs will top out in the mid-80s for most of us. It is kind of humid out there, but it won't be as oppressive as it could be. 

SUNDAY

We should make it through most of the day without rain or thunderstorms. Especially if you're in the southeastern half of Vermont. A slow moving "cold front" will be coming approaching grudgingly fro the west. A have "cold front" in quotations because it won't really drop our temperatures and the drop in humidity when it eventually comes through will be barely noticeable, 

It will get close enough to set off some scattered showers and non-severe storms late in the afternoon north and west, but not everyone will get wet. It'll be in the 80s again, and you'll notice the humidity getting worse. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

This is when the bulk of the rain and downpours come through.  There had been some concerns that a sluggish, weak but very wet storm would stall nearby, giving parts of our area another drenching and flood, like what happened in New York's Hudson Valley earlier this week, 

Instead, it looks like things will slowly progress through, so that - fingers crossed - it doesn't rain hard enough or long enough to set off any flooding. There's still a chance some locally heavy downpours cause problems, but overall, the chance of anything major look low, 

The rain should be more good than bad.  Some places, especially in the Northeast Kingdom didn't receive all that much rain this past week. As it stands now, it looks like almost everybody in Vermont should receive a decent half inch to an inch, with maybe locally higher amounts. 

I supposed there's a slight chance the forecast could once again flip flop back to a rainier, somewhat more dangerous scenario. So far, I don't see that, but of course, we'll update as necessary.

REST OF NEXT WEEK

The dog days of summer I've been talking about will continue. The weather set up with an offshore Bermuda high means very warm and humid air will keep coming at us. Tuesday will be the nicest day with a slight dip in the humidity and low to no rain chances.

The rest of the week will be partly cloudy, humid, with an ever-present chance of showers and storms. It's hard at this point to pick out which day will be the rainiest. It depends on the location of any little disturbances in that muggy flow of air. 

The clouds and showers should keep us under 90 degrees (with possibly one or two odd exceptions) But the humidity will more than make up for the lack of super hot air. Um, enjoy, I guess?  

Dog Days Of Summer Have Arrived In Vermont, Downpours Thrown In Sunday/Monday Too

A bumblebee enjoys a rose bloom this morning in 
St. Albans, Vermont amid our spell of humid air. Sticky
days will continue for at least a week along with
risks of showers and storms. 

It hasn't exactly been hot recently, but the air has felt rather sticky, here in Vermont and that state of affairs will continue for quite awhile. 

It's the dog days of summer, the nearly annual spell in which we're stuck in a long period of humid, warm air, with occasional spikes to a hot day or two mixed with rainy, thundery periods as well.

We're going to sweat it out in moderately warm air, and humidity that's moderately high until Sunday, when it will get even worse.Most of us will stay rain-fee under Sunday, when the weather forecast begins to turn iffy. Let's get into the details:   

TODAY

Partly sunny with that humidity is the bottom line.  Highs should get into the low 80s.

 noticed a couple showers early today in Addison and Rutland counties. That hints at enough instability in the air to trigger maybe an isolated shower or storm today mostly over the mountains. The vast majority of us will stay dry. though, and whatever does form shouldn't be scary. Just garden variety stuff.  

SATURDAY

Rinse and repeat. But it will be just a bit warmer as temperatures rise well into the 80s. 

SUNDAY

Here's where it gets questionable. South winds, which you'll especially notice in the Champlain Valley, will increase ahead of the next weather system. Those wind  will pump even more humid air our way, so Sunday will feel even more oppressive.

As it stands now, it looks like some showers and storms could develop in the afternoon and evening, especially in the northwestern half of the state. We still have questions on the timing and intensity of this thing, and those questions deepen Sunday night and Monday

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

It seems like the incoming front and weather disturbance will want to slow down near New England. We're pretty sure we'll see some heavy downpours around, but we don't know how long they'll last or just how heavy they'll be in any particular spot. 

The computer models have been windshield wipering between an ominous forecast of heavy rain lingering over the region for a long time, or downpours staying long enough to give us a harmless, beneficial soaking without a real risk of flooding. 

This morning's runs of computer forecast don't look all that ominous, but there's still a risk of locally heavy rain. And other model runs today might paint yet a different picture. 

In this morning's forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said they're hoping for  better, more concise guidance tomorrow on what might happen with this system. By then, well have better upper air sampling of how things are shaping. So stay tuned.  

BEYOND MONDAY

Whatever this system doesn't, it won't be one of those nice summer cold fronts that flush out the humidity for a few days. Instead it will stay warm, and probably get warmer. Temperatures might hold in the 70s amid steamy air Monday if there's a lot of clouds and rain. 

If we're lucky, it could briefly turn slightly less humid next Tuesday, but building warmth and humidity quickly return. It looks like a long stretch of very warm, humid weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through next week. 

Rutland County Hit By Big Storm Friday. All Of Vermont Faces Hot, Steamy Weather In Upcoming Days

The severe thunderstorm in Rutland County yesterday
with a wild shelf cloud. Note the blue tint in the clouds.
That suggests there's quite a bit of hail up there. Photo
was taken by Mary Jean Wasik Obtained via Facebook

 Well, we got through our latest severe weather threat pretty much unscathed. Most of us anyway. Quite a few people in Rutland County would beg to differ. 

As severe weather probabilities were updated midday Friday, the word, "tornado" somehow came back into the vernacular. They said there was a very low, but not zero chance of a tornado in eastern Vermont or New Hampshire in the very worst storms. 

Turns out there was only one thunderstorm of note, and it was a doozy. It developed near Ticonderoga, New York around 2:30 and headed southeast. through northern an eastern Rutland County. 

Dime sized hail fell in Hubbarton and Hortonia, Vermont. It then moved on to knock down numerous trees in Proctor and in the north and east sides of Rutland. 

I don't see any evidence the damage was caused by a tornado. Looks like straight line winds caused all the Rutland Couty trouble. 

The storm appeared to weaken somewhat crossing the Green Mountains because I don't have damage reports there. But the storm blossomed again as it crossed the Connecticut River into Cornish, New Hampshire, where hail was big enough to dent cars. 

The storm continue on through southern New Hampshire as a rotating supercell, spewing damaging wins and hail along its path.

Parts of Vermont that were not hit be severe storms still had generous rainfall. It was hit and miss, or course, bur Burlington had a storm total of 0.68 inches. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected right around an inch of rain from Thursday night through late Friday afternoon. 

The rain is mostly over, for now, and summer is really going to make a stand. The details: 

TODAY

There were areas of low clouds and fog around early this morning around Vermont,  but that should mostly clear out to reveal a nice, typical Vermont summer day. Highs will get into the 

You'll see some building, towering clouds here and there over the mountains, and some of those will develop into showers and garden variety thunderstorms. They'll pretty much stick to the mountains and do no harm. From the valleys especially it will be a great cloud watching day as showers and storm develop, then fade as new ones form. 

A few showers  could try to wander off into the valleys during the afternoon and evening, but they'll probably weaken as they do so. 

While you're watching the clouds, or doing anything else outside, it should get up to near 80 degrees for most of us. Humidity will be moderate. 

SUNDAY: 

A copy of today, except it will be a couple degrees warmer and there will probably be few storms and showers over the mountains. 

MONDAY: 

The heat and humidity really start to build. It should still be fairly reasonably with highs in the low to mid 80s. Maybe a spot 87 or 88 in the warmest valleys. 

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

The heat is on. Hot, humid, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the warmest valleys Tuesday through Friday. 

It's hard to say exactly how hot it will get, as clouds and storms might interfere with the hottest temperatures. For now, the National Weather Service is going with a high of 91 degrees in Burlington Tuesday, followed by 95 Wednesday and Thursday. 

Granted, Burlington is warmer than many other parts of Vermont. But regardless of what happens, with location and afternoon showers and storms,  it will be uncomfortable. 

 As I mentioned in yesterday's post, we will be on the northeast corner of a big heat dome that will be setting up over the eastern US. "Ridge runner" patches of thunderstorms could go over the top of the heat dome in southern Canada and then head southeastward over us at any time during this upcoming hot week. The first chance of this is Tuesday night. 

With all the heat and humidity in place, there's a chance that storms could become severe or lead to local flash flooding. It's way too early to determine for sure whether this will happen, and if so, where. But on top of taking care of yourself in the heat, you might have to keep an ear out for severe storm warnings, too.

 

Some Vermont Flash Flooding Reported; Hot, Humid Weather Today, Tomorrow With Storm Threats

Flash flood damage in Walcott. Photo by Ashelyn 
Burroughs via Facebook 

The humidity is here and we're already wilting. And getting pretty wet in the process. We have two more days to go in this oppressive spell here in Vermont. Followed by a warm weekend and several chances of thunderstorms. Some might be severe tomorrow.

So let's get into it. 

First of all, I mentioned the other day we've entered flash flood season. Vermont had its first instance of trouble yesterday amid the slow moving storms 

They were  hit and miss, and most of us were fine. But the National Weather Service in South Burlington had to issue a flash flood warning for a section of north central Vermont for heavy rains. 

Sure enough, flood damage was reported around Wolcott and Hardwick. Part of East Hill Road in Hardwick had to close for flood damage. So did a section of Bunker Hill Road in Hardwick. 

I was also concerned last night about a nearly stalled area of heavy rain along the International border near and east or Newport, but so far, I haven't heard of any trouble there. 

Now let's look at what's hitting us next:

TODAY

We started off nasty enough with gray skies, temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s and dew points at similar levels.  

We'll get well into the 80s today as that humidity continues. A few places, especially in southeast Vermont could easily top 90 degrees.  A heat advisory for "real feel" temperatures in the mid-90s is in effect in the lower Connecticut River Valley from roughly White River Junction south. 

It'll feel almost as bad in the rest of Vermont. Usually the Champlain Valley is another hot spot, but clouds and showers might keep temperatures just under 90 degrees. We'll see.

Speaking of those showers and thunderstorms, they'll roam the state again today. I'm getting somewhat mixed messages from various sources and models as to how widespread they'll be. One model, the HRRR, was fairly blasé, firing up some southern Vermont storms and maybe an isolated one in central Vermont. 

Other models get up to 60 percent of us wet by late afternoon or evening via showers and storms. In any event, they won't be as widespread as yesterday. The flash flood threat is also very low, though there could be some isolated trouble again because some storms will produce torrential rains. 

FRIDAY

We have an exciting weather day ahead with oppressive heat and the risk of strong storms 

The atmosphere over Vermont will reach its hottest point of this stretch of misery on Friday. After a stuffy overnight, temperatures will soar to 90 degrees or more in many places, espeicalluy the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River valleys, where heat advisories are in effect again. The western parts of Rutland and Bennington counties are included in tomorrow's heat advisory. 

The National Weather Service is mulling whether to expand tomorrow's heat advisories, but will wait for more data before deciding whether to pull the trigger. 

It will be another very humid day. Definitely take it easy out there and don't work too hard. Three days of sticky, ugly weather accumulates the heat stress.  Plus, this is the first big hot, humid spell of the season, so we're not quite used to it yet. 

While you're suffering from the heat, you're also going to need access to weather warnings, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. 

It looks like conditions will be a little better to form severe storms than we thought yesterday. The instability will be super high, so that will be a factor. An approaching cold front will start to cool the upper atmosphere and increase winds aloft. 

All those are ingredients for severe storms. The winds aloft won't be super strong, which might be limiting factor. But at this point, at least a few severe storms with strong winds are a decent bet. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a level 2 out of five alert level fort severe storms. 

WARM WEEKEND

This first cold front won't have much cold air behind it. Saturday and Sunday will feature highs in the 80s. It'll be somewhat less humid, though. Another cold front will come in on Sunday with more showers and storms. Depending on the timing of the front, we could see another risk of severe storms .

Decidedly cooler weather comes in for the first part of next week with highs in the near-normal 70s.  

 

Thursday Vermont Weather Update: Hot Today, Changeable Thereafter

A hazy start to the day, as seen in South Burlington
around 7:15 a.m looking toward the Adirondacks,
promises a hot humid day. 

The cool Vermont weather is over, for now, 

The humidity still wasn't that bad overnight, and temperatures were still reasonable, at least outside the Champlain Valley, where it never go below 70 degrees last night. 

Now, as the morning goes on, the humidity is creeping up, and the temperature is racing upward on steady south winds.   

Some mixing in the atmosphere due to those winds might make the humidity level off to kinda uncomfortable but not ridiculous levels this afternoon.  

Still with the humidity up and temperatures reaching 90 or more, a heat advisory has been issued for the Champlain Valley, because there, the heat index will make it feel like it's in the mid-90s The Hudson Valley of New York is also under a head advisory. Up in Quebec. a heat warning is up for Montreal and large areas surrounding the city.  

Actual temperatures will be close to that in the valley. Burlington's actual high temperature today is now forecast to be around 94 degrees. Plenty of other places in Vermont will be at or above 90.  Temperatures might come close to record highs in some places.  Montpelier in particular looks like they might break their record high, as the current record is only 89 degrees. 

Tonight, that humidity will really pool over and near Vermont ahead of a cold front.  If we're lucky, there might be a light show for people in far northern parts of the Green Mountain State. Depending on lingering instability there might be a decent amount of heat lighting visible looking up toward Quebec.

It's iffy, but maybe. If there are any Quebec storms tonight, they should stay north of the border until we get close to dawn. 

That potential lightning is our preview for Friday. 

FRIDAY

It looks like our cold front will come through near or before noon in the north, and in the early to mid afternoon north, which trims back our chances of severe storms.

The front will come through too early in the day for severe storms north, so the worst you can expect up there is some morning downpours and maybe some rumbles of thunder.

There could be some isolated strong, damaging wind gusts with storms Friday in southern and eastern Vermont, but it doesn't look like it will be a widespread problem. The rest of southern and eastern New England might also have a few strong to severe storms 

There's not going to be a well defined cold front, so shower and even thunderstorm chances could last into the afternoon even in the north. But the afternoon in the north will be nicer than the morning. The opposite will be true south. Except the heat and humidity south will feel kinda nasty. 

WEEKEND

It's turning out we've got a bit of a rinse and repeat of last weekend, with gorgeous weather Saturday and Sunday, not so nice. 

Saturday looks sunny and warm, with moderate humidity. It should be a wonderful day for any kind of outdoor summer activity. 

Very much like this time last week, the forecast for Sunday has now shifted. 

At least as it stands now, what was once expected to be a minor disturbance causing the risk of widely scattered showers, mostly south, now looks a little more substantial statewide.  

There's still some debate as to whether Sunday's rain will be hit and miss and mostly light except for a few local downpours, or pretty widespread and on the heavier side. 

 Much like last Sunday, the cause will be a hard to forecast weak disturbance from the west interacting with a cold front to set off rte showers and storms,

However, unless something in the forecast changes substantially, it looks like we'll once again avoid the any real flash flooding, the kind that has causes so many problems in the U.S this summer.  

Unlike last Sunday, the cold front, such as it is, will be so weak that Monday will actually be warmer than Sunday. It fact, Monday at this point looks borderline hot. It won't be until later Tuesday or Wednesday before the big pattern change arrives to give us another big autumnal cool down. 

Coolish Stretch Of June Weather In Vermont/New England Will End Soon

Vermont had weather winners and losers once again
on Saturday. In this satellite photo taken in the
early afternoon, it was clear near the Canadian border
while the rest of northern Vermont had a mix of
sun and puffy clouds, But southern Vermont was
socked in by the clouds once again, as so often
has been the case lately on Saturdays.

 In recent years, we've had some awful spells of rather intense early season heat and humidity in May and the first half of June in Vermont. 

Summers have been starting earlier than they used to, in large part due to climate change.   

This year so far has been more temperate. It did make it to 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on June 5, but spells of very warm, humid weather have been brief.

That might be about to change. Warm, very humid air looks like it will flow into northern New England by mid-week. 

After that, there might be a brief cooldown or two, but the overall weather pattern is trending toward warmer, more summery conditions.

THIS WEEKEND

It was a tale of two Vermonts again on Saturday. After some early morning sprinkles, it was gorgeous across northern parts of the state yesterday. We had sunshine, deep blue skies finally free of the smoky haze, a few puffy clouds to decorate the skies and comfortable temperatures in the low 70s.

Meanwhile, southern Vermont was socked in with the clouds most of the day.

Today will be a little more fair to everyone. It'll be partly sunny almost statewide  -- the clouds will sort of be in and out all day -  and there's the slightest chance of a brief shower. But the vast majority of us will stay dry.

An exception would be far southern Vermont, near the Massachusetts border, They're closer to a stalled weather front that's been stuck in the Mid-Atlantic States for days. So clouds will probably dominate out of today in place like Bennington and Brattleboro.

Then changes are afoot

THIS WEEK AND BEYOND

You'll notice the humidity rising day by day early this week from pretty low levels today to really sticky by Wednesday and Thursday.

The dew point is a good indicator of how icky it feels out there. Today, those dew points will be in the 50s, which is comfortable. On Monday, they'll edge closer to 60.  That's still OK, but you'll notice it a little if you're really exerting yourself outdoors. 

Tuesday's dew points will be in the low 60s, which is a little sticky, then in the upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday. There's your ick factor right there. 

Actual daily temperatures will climb, too, from the lows 70s today, upper 70s Monday, near 80 Tuesday and in the 80s Wednesday and Thursday. 

When you combine such warmth and humidity, you often get showers and thunderstorms. At this point, those seem a safe bet Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too soon to tell, however, if any of those storms would get on the strong side. It's also a little early to figure out if any of those storms will dump a bit too much rain. 

Those details will be ironed in the coming days. 

Forecasts beyond this coming Thursday are a little more questionable, only because a lot can change in the atmosphere over four or five days. Those changes sometimes throw longer range forecasts way off.

But an early guess suggests a brief cooldown coming next weekend (down to near normal mid and upper 70s).  Then, some computer models bring in an even hotter few days right after next weekend. We could have a spell of 90 degree weather in a little over a week from now.

Summer seems to be here, folks.  

Vermont Summer: At Least The Pumpkins Are Big

Vermont Agriculture Secretary Anson Tebbetts snapped
this photo of this year's giant pumpkin contest at the 
Champlain Valley Fair.  The winner, middle pumpkin
weighed a record 1,327.5 pounds. 

I had a post the other day, I inventoried some of the negative effects such a hot, humid, wet summer we had on Vermont.  

But there were plusses to that oppressive weather, too.

Like giant pumpkins.

Wilbur Horton of Springfield, Vermont entered a giant pumpkin at the Champlain Valley Fair this past week that shattered the record for the heaviest one on record there. His pumpkin weighed a staggering, 1,327.5 pounds, as WPTZ reports. 

The old record for the most giant pumpkin any the fair was set last year, another hot, wet summer. That 2023 pumpkin weighed a mere 1,280 pounds. 

Most of the credit for this year's giant pumpkin record has to go to Horton's pumpkin growing prowess. He is, after all, a member of the Vermont Giant Pumpkin Growers Association. (I had no idea such an organization exists, but it sounds fun).

Still, pumpkins love hot, humid weather so the conditions were ripe, so to speak, for Horton's gourd. Southeastern Vermont, where Horton lives, was not as wet and somewhat sunnier than northern sections of the state during the summer, so that surely helped. 

If you want to see the winning pumpkin for yourself, there's still time. It's on display in the fairgrounds in Essex Junction until September 1.

Certain other crops do well in a Vermont summer that was more like you'd see in the Mid-Atlantic States.  My garden is producing cucumbers so prolifically and fast that my husband finds himself frantically pickling them so they last longer. 

I understand there's bumper crops of tomatoes. I see apple trees are sagging under the weight of a huge number of fruit. Also, don't get me started on zucchini.  

If you have a bumper crop, or giant pumpkins or other huge veggies, let me know. 

Vermont Week Ahead: Some Changes To Forecast, But Humidity, Local Downpours To Dominate

Here we go again. Smoke and haze obscure the view
of the Champlain Valley from St. Albans Hill on
Saturday. You can barely make out 
Lake Champlain in the distance. 

 It's been gorgeous, but kind of smoky here in Vermont the past day or two, and that state of affairs should continue today. 

But a weird twist in the weather pattern has changed the forecast for early in the week. More on that in a bit. 

The smoke from western wildfires is now covering much of North America - they're that bad. 

We will have to put up with smoke off and on for weeks, probably.  The fires aren't so much in Quebec like last year, so they're not as close to Vermont as they were in 2023.

Which means we will likely escape the thick smoke that choked us a few times last year.

Air quality, though isn't perfect. The Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation rated the air quality yesterday and this morning as "moderate." Which means the air is not clean and fresh, but is falling short of being really dangerous. 

Plus the deep blue skies we all like have been replaced by sort of greyish slate blue. At least the sunrises and sunsets mixed with the smoke are pretty. 

"STORM" CHANGES FORECAST

Now, here's the odd twist to the forecast.

For days, we've been touting Monday as the hottest day in an upcoming stretch of very warm weather. It was supposed to be almost a slam dunk for at least a few Vermont towns getting up to 90 degrees. 

Instead a weird little storm has gotten going pretty far off the Mid-Atlantic coast.  As it moves north, it's expected to take a hard left turn and go pretty much westward into southeastern New England tonight. 

It is an odd little bugger, not only because of its non-traditional path.  It's definitely not a tropical storm, as it's carrying a coolish pool of air aloft with it. But has a few sort of subtropical characteristics thrown in because it's feeding off warm Gulf Stream waters that are even warmer than normal. 

Overall, it's sort of a way out of season nor'easter. 

Luckily, it's not strong, so it won't really cause much trouble. The New England sea coast will have to deal with showers and scattered downpours, some gusty winds and rip currents, which of course are dangerous to beachgoers. 

As it moves into interior New England Monday,  it will throw clouds across Vermont, and maybe some light showers south and east.  

The storm will essentially act as a cold front of sorts coming in from the southeast.  Cold fronts almost always come at us from the west and north, so this is another odd aspect to Monday's weather. 

The clouds and slightly cooler maritime air will keep southeastern Vermont in the low 80s at best Monday. Further away from this thing in northwestern Vermont, it just puts a lot of questions into the forecast for high temperatures. 

If the storm over-performs with clouds, we stay in the low 80s up by Burlington and that neck of the woods. If the clouds are thinner, we could see upper 80s. Ninety degree weather looks much less likely than it did, though. 

One nice thing about this weird storm is that it will temporarily bring in some of that ocean air, which lacks the wildfire smoke that's been coming at us for a couple days. 

BEYOND THAT

On Tuesday, the remnants of our weird little storm will head north through Vermont and out into Quebec, spreading some hit and miss showers and possible thunderstorms along the way. Nothing too scary, though. Tuesday will start a long stretch of muggy summer weather. 

Another disturbance - a much more traditional, rather weak, normal type of summer system - comes in Wednesday with a batch of showers and storms. Wednesday at this point looks like it'll be the day with the most activity. 

There could even be one or two strong to severe storms, but most of us will escape that. With the humidity building, some torrential rainfall is possible in spots, but again nothing widespread and not a huge flood risk. 

Beyond that, very warm, oppressively humid weather Thursday through Saturday starts off August. There's the ever-present chance of afternoon and evening hit and miss showers and storms during the period. 

"Traditional" Fourth Of July Weather In Vermont - Meaning Warm And Humid

Burlington's waterfront on a hot summer day a few years
ago. The area near the lake will be crowded today and 
tonight in anticipation of the fireworks tonight.
Fingers crossed, the rain should hold off. 

 We associated pretty hot, humid weather for the Fourth of July and this year is kind of delivering a traditional serving of it this year in the Green Mountain State.  

Luckily, no extremes are in the forecast, but you'll know it's summer. 

A warm front is passing though Vermont today with very little fanfare. It's replacing the perfect, dry summer weather we've had with a more humid version.

 It won't be so bad today as we slow transition to the ickier side, but you'll feel the humidity start to creep up a little on those south winds. 

You'll notice the difference from yesterday and the day before. 

That warm front will produce some increasing clouds as the morning and afternoon go on, but it probably won't be completely overcast. They're calling it partly sunny, which sounds good. Temperatures should get right up there into the 80s this afternoon. So warm enough, for sure. 

Those south winds are a little gusty in the Champlain Valley today, so take care if you take your boat out onto the lake. Wave heights on the broad lake could end up at around two or three feet as winds gust up to 35 mph out there.

Otherwise the breeze will sort of offset the warmth a bit.

Burlington has its fireworks tonight, and I think they'll squeeze in some good enough weather for it. A dying cold front is approaching, and will set off some overnight showers. Although some raindrops might creep in during the fireworks, most of the rain will probably hold off until overnight. 

Though a few places overnight might have a rumble of thunder and a local downpour, most of us probably won't have much of anything. 

That cold front pretty much washes out overhead and largely disappears by tomorrow morning. That leaves us with pretty typical summer weather.

Expect it to get up into the 80s again, and the humidity will be noticeable. Stay hydrated. It won't hurt to bring a bottle of water with you to watch the parades.  The sun will be in and out all day. 

There will be the ever-present risk of an afternoon or evening shower or garden variety thunderstorms. But they should be very few and far between. If you're unlucky enough to get one,  it won't last long. 

By the way, as mentioned yesterday, the warm, humid weather is going to stick around for awhile, so get used to it. 

Vermont August Had One Weird Cold Statistic, But The Month Was Actually Kinda Normal, But Too Rainy

Unsettled skies over Georgia, Vermont on August 26
were typical for the entire month in the Green 
Mountain State as we had another month of
frequent rains and even sometimes flooding.

August was another weird weather month in Vermont, and I'll start with what was really striking, at least to me. 

For all of August in Burlington - a month normally known for its impressive heat waves, the warmest it ever got was 83 degrees.  

That's the coldest maximum temperature for the month of August since almost a century ago - August, 1927 - which never got above 82 degrees. 

That's one impressive stat, to be honest. 

Especially since, if you add up all the days of the month, August was only slightly cooler than normal. 

And we're talking about the warmer "new normal."  Had this August occurred say in 1980, when averages weren't so skewed by climate change, August would have actually been a bit warmer than normal. 

The heat was similarly tempered in  August statewide. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Rutland and Bennington all said their hottest day of the month was between 81 and 83 degrees.

The month probably felt warmer to you than it was, because it was pretty humid much of the time. Nighttime temperatures were pretty close to the "new normal" average while daytime highs were on the cool side. 

The relative coolness of Vermont's August, 2023 stands in contrast to most of the rest of the world. Experts say August on a global basis will either be the warmest on record or very close to it. 

To nobody's surprise, the stats also show it was another wet month.  Burlington's 4.9 inches was about 1.3 inches on the wet side. The rain was frequent, too. Only 12 days in August were precipitation-free in Burlington. 

Other reporting sites were even wetter. Montpelier and Rutland had around six inches for August. That's better than the eye-popping July totals that led to such extreme flooding then, but it was still impressive.

That flooding continued into August as well. Severe flooding struck in and around Middlebury on August 3, and that dangerous flash flooding spread into Rutland and surrounding communities on August 4. 

LOOKING AHEAD

We're starting September this morning with a cool, almost autumnal morning. Most of us were in the 40s at dawn. Gallup Mills, Vermont and Saranac Lake, New York were down to 37 degrees and Island Pond was 39.

Almost makes you think fall is arriving. 

Postpone that thought. 

After those cool daytime temperatures I talked about in August, we have a shot at reaching 90 degrees in the days ahead. Even if we don't get that warm,  reading will go well past that August peak of 83 degrees in Burlington. 

In fact, current forecasts bring Burlington, and many other places in Vermont up to 85 degrees or more each day Sunday through Thursday. 

Longer range forecasts are less reliable, but for what it's worth, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center tilts our odds strongly in favor of generally above normal temperatures through mid-month. 

Perfect Vermont Summer Weather Ends, Looong Stretch Of Downpours, Humidity Coming

Deep blue skies Thursday over St. Albans, Vermont on a
perfect summer day.  We won't be seeing anything like
this again for quite awhile. 

 If there were a DoorDash type of business in which you could order in the kind of weather you want, and I ordered a perfect summer day, you'd end up with Thursday. 

Thursday was a strong candidate for the best Vermont weather day or Summer '23. 

 It was warm enough to enjoy a dip in the lake, but the humidity was so low that you'd feel cool and refreshed after your dip. 

It was also mild and dry enough so that a hike up, say Camels Hump would be perfect. I imagine some of last week's mud would have dried up by now. 

There was enough of a slight breeze to power a sailboat, but not nearly enough wind to make Lake Champlain choppy y or dangerous. 

The sky was a brilliant blue, with just a hint of haze to remind you it's summer. High pressure blocked clouds from coming up from the south, and also blocked Canadian wildfire smoke from smothering out the azure sky. 

I hope you liked Thursday. You're not going to see anything like that for quite awhile. Expect a long stretch of humidity, clouds and rain. Some of that rain could down pretty hard. 

Let's get into the details:

HUMIDITY

Savor the last bit of dry air this Friday morning, we're in for what might be a week of oppressive weather. As our nice dry, clear high pressure system departs, south winds will gradually bring the  humidity in today.  By this evening,  you'll feel it.   

There won't really be any hot weather with our upcoming stretch of Louisiana style humidity. We'll have too many clouds, showers and thunderstorms for anything heat wave-ish. But the humidity will be very noticeable, especially at night. 

A good way to judge how humid it is to to look at the dew point. The dew point is the temperature to which the air must be cooled to become fully saturated with water vapor. 

If the dew point is under 60 degrees, like it was over the last few days, it feels pretty comfortable out there. Between 60 and 65 it feels kind of sticky.  Anything over 65 is just plain yuck. 

It's looking like most of the time tonight through the middle of next week will have dew points at or above 65 degrees. 

Usually by this time of year, we've already had a few spells of at least sort of humid weather, to get us acclimated to wet air. Not this year. It's been mostly dry, dry air. Except when it rained. But until now, the rain came with cool temperatures. 

With the lack of humidity so far, this muggy spell will definitely feel like a wet slap in the face. Especially since it will last so long. We can handle one or two days. But I'm sure a week of this will get tiring. 

With all the expected clouds, daytime highs will be in the 75 to 82 degree range for the next several days. That's about where they should be this time of year. But overnight lows will stay in the 60s to low 70s for most of us. That's warm compared to normal. 

LOTS OF RAIN

The next aspect of this upcoming stalled weather pattern is rain.  Since our friendly high pressure system is a little reluctant to depart today, I don't think you'll see any rain drops in Vermont today.

But you definitely will see that rain, starting late tonight. 

Yesterday, forecasters were telling us to expect rain every day Saturday through Wednesday. This morning, they're hinting that rain might go beyond next Wednesday and extend all the way to next weekend. 

It won't rain all the time during this stretch. But there will be lots of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoons and evenings. 

Last weekend's rains dented but did not destroy what had been a developing drought in Vermont.  The rain a week ago cut in half the size of the area in northern Vermont considered in drought. Now it's just 10 percent of the state, mostly in Lamoille and eastern Franklin counties. Two-thirds of the state is considered to still be on the dry side. 

If the current forecast pans out, we'll see a lot more damage to the dry conditions, which of course is great news. 

Over the next seven days, it looks like we'll generally see two to as much as four inches of rain in Vermont. That would put June's total rainfall above normal, which is a surprise given how dry we started out this month. 

FLOODING?

With all this rain, there's actually some risk of flooding. It won't be anything widespread, and we're definitely not going to get anything like 2011's Hurricane Irene disaster.

However, if some unlucky towns have thunderstorms plowing through day after day, then have a train of them come through one after another during an afternoon and evening during the upcoming week, you can get a nasty local flash flood. 

Something to watch out for, definitely.  You won't know if or where there will be flash flooding until it's happening, or shortly beforehand. Just stay aware of warnings if you're in a flood prone spot over the course of the next week

SEVERE WEATHER?

Though we expect lots of thunderstorms - and you should always respect lightning - at least at this point, it doesn't look like there will be any widespread severe thunderstorms.

However, the weather pattern does make us prone to wet microbursts. The term sound like it refers to a small water balloon popping, but that isn't it. 

A microburst starts when a strong updraft suspends a lot of rain and some hail up in the cloud.  Then the  updraft abruptly fades, so all that rain and hail rushes to the ground in one great big whoosh. When it hits the ground, the wind spreads out.  Places near where the down rush hits the ground get strong, damaging winds. 

It's called a microburst because the damage area is usually quite small, almost always less than 2.5 miles diameter and often much smaller than that. 

The types of thunderstorms we're expecting in the coming days have the potential to contain microbursts.  But since the areas suffering damage from this phenomenon is small, the vast majority of us will be just fine.

WHEN WILL IT DRY OUT?

The short answer is, we don't know.  Some forecasts push a cold front into Vermont by next Thursday, which would help.  But other forecasts have strong high pressure off the East Coast, which would prevent that cold front from reaching us, or at least slow it down. 

The only thing I can say for sure is get used to the humidity and showers. You're going to have to. 

Another Weird Summer In November Event Just Happened. Now, Welcome To Winter

The tiny stream that runs by our St. Albans, Vermont house,
which in a grandiose way we named the Woof River, was
at its highest level in since at least this past spring
after heavy overnight rain. Still well short of rising enough
to cause any problems, though. 

 The remnants of Hurricane Nicole just gave Vermont yet another weird dose of summer in November weather overnight, with off-hours record breaking high temperatures, and more tropical downpours. 

This is it, though. 

Temperatures will cool today, and winter will start tomorrow. Before you get too nervous, by winter, I mean temperatures that hold in the 30s to near 40 by day, and subfreezing at night. With some snow risk. More on that a moment. 

But first, the remarkable warmth, once again. 

It started yesterday, when the temperature reached 69 degrees in Burlington.  That was just two degrees shy of the record high for the date. 

Then, the remnants of Hurricane Nicole pushed even warmer, more humid air into Vermont overnight.  The temperature in Burlington rose to 71 degrees at around 4 a.m., breaking the record high for the date of 70, set in 2012.

This record is all the more remarkable because record highs usually occur in the afternoon, not at what is normally about the coldest part of the day. (That said, record highs are sometimes, though rarely set at night between late autumn and early spring  in Vermont).

Dew points - a good measure of how humid the air feels - were in the low to mid 60s in the predawn hours across Vermont. That's the second time it's been so humid this month in Vermont. Such humidity levels are practically unheard of this late in the season.  

While Burlington was at its record high of 71 degrees before dawn, the dew point was 65. That would have been regarded as a pretty muggy night for us in July. No records are kept on dew points that I know of, but I'm pretty sure that's the highest humidity I've ever seen in Vermont so late in the season.

Ten of the first 12 days of November this year have had highs of at least 60 degrees in Burlington. The normal highs during this period are within a couple degrees of 50.

I've still got a couple flowers blooming in pots that I haven't taken in yet. Truly bizarre for November. Yet again. 

 On top of the warmth, the cold front coming into it created more torrential downpours, the kind you see in the summer. The same thing happened in parts of Vermont last Sunday.

A flower tries to hang on in an outdoor flower pot I haven't 
stored away yet. It's been warm enough for some outdoor
plants to stay green. Some day lilies I cut down for 
the winter are starting to grow back again. 

This time it was more widespread, as a north to south band of heavy rains crossed the state this morning. Burlington had 0.74 inches of rain in just one hour. 

As expected, storm total rainfall is over one inch for most of us, and approaching two inches for some people. 

Burlington was closing in on 1.5 inches for a storm total as of 8 a.m. I haven't seen any reports of flooding, other than ponding of water on roads, that kind of thing. 

The rain will taper off this morning and temperatures will cool during the day. This is the end of the wacko summer in November regime we've experienced. 

WELCOME TO WINTER 

The cold front this morning represents the major pattern change we've been talking about that will keep us generally colder than normal for much of the rest of the month. 

I'm exaggerating a bit when I say winter is coming up next week. It won't be the least bit extreme for November. But this time of year, when it's even a little cooler than average, it can still feel pretty wintry and bleak.  

Even though no big snowstorms are imminent,  make sure pretty quickly that you're all set with snow tires, and your snow shovels are at the ready. 

Sunday won't be all that bad for November, with highs in the mid and upper 40s and just scattered cold, light rain showers around.  That's absolutely, perfectly normal for this time of year.

Monday and Tuesday get more wintry, with highs staying near or a little under 40 degrees. Raw and nasty. If it does snow, it'll probably just amount to snow flurries in the mountains. Again, it's November.

Our best shot of snow comes Wednesday and Wednesday night.  A coastal storm wants to get itself together. But it won't be a powerhouse. And it might go too far east and south to give us a lot of precipitation. 

There's still a lot of question marks with this one, though. But expect at least a little wet snow and maybe some low elevation cold rain with that midweek system.

As advertised, the colder weather pattern for much of the nation seems like it wants to last a good 10 days to even two weeks.

In general, the core of the coldest air seems like it wants to stay to our west, over the Midwest and Plains and probably the northern Rockies. So it will be a long chilly spell, but mostly not out of the ordinary for this dark, clammy and chilly time of year.  And there might even be a warm-ish day or two thrown in the mix if we're lucky. 

Remarkably, Burlington, Vermont has not had its first snow flurry of the season yet, while cities far to our south have. Oklahoma City joined the Burlington snow beaters last night, picking up 0.4 inches of snow. 

Other southern locales that have had snow before us include St. Louis and parts of Kentucky and Tennessee.

The lack of autumn snow in Vermont tells us nothing about whether we'll have a snowy winter or not. There's plenty of examples of a winter that starts out with practically no snow then ends up burying us. 

The most notorious example was the winter of 1992-93. Through December 31 that winter, only a paltry 5.5 inches of snow had fallen in Burlington.  By the time that winter was over, the snow total was 116.9 inches. That's our fifth snowiest winter on record. 

So skiers and riders, chin up! 

South Florida Weather Continues To Wilt Vermont. High Humidity, Storms Loom

The high humidity left the evening sky over St. 
Albans, Vermont look more like southern Florida

 We're stuck in South Florida weather. It feels like South Florida. The humidity, the scattered storms and the sky is what you'd typically see down there this time of year. Even the local weather patterns in Vermont are mimicking South Florida for now.  

This will end, but it will be a slow process and one that still has the potential to bring some high water to some areas. 

Humidity levels were about as high as they possibly can get in Vermont, especially Saturday evening. There's no good way to know for sure, but dew points, a measure of how humid it is, had to be near record high levels. 

First, though, as a weather geek, I was impressed with Saturday and the Florida weather patterns. The air of course was humid, but there were no nearby weather systems to trigger any organized storms or major shifts in conditions. 

One interesting little storm formed in and around Burlington Saturday afternoon.  It appears a breeze off the lake collided with much hotter air just inland to create an updraft. That created a downpour that hit mostly right along the lake shore, but extended inland at least to the airport in South Burlington.

This was almost exactly like what often happens in a Florida summer.  

The rainfall dropped the temperature in Burlington from 93 degrees to 80 degrees, though it later bounced back up to 85 degrees. So cooler, yay?

No. The shower took humid air and made it ridiculous. The dew point is the measure of how humid air is. It's the temperature you'd have to reach to completely saturate the air, producing fog, rain etc. 

If the dew point is over 70 degrees, it's oppressively hot. We in Vermont usually get dew points in the low 70s a couple or handful of times per summer. Usually such oppressive humidity only lasts a day or two.

The dew point in Burlington last evening peaked at 78 degrees. It's the highest I can remember, but I don't know if it's a record high. Like I said, it had to be close. 

I reached out to the National Weather Service in South Burlington and they said they don't keep track of record high and low dew points. 

However, meteorologist John Hickey did manage to find four hours on September 5, 1973 in which the dew point was at 79 degrees, and one hour at a 79 dew point on July 2, 2002. So my guess is that is the record high. 

Also, according to a chart provided by climate scientist Craig Ramseyer, before yesterday, since at least 1960, the dew point in all Augusts in Burlington was at or above 76 degrees for a grand total of just ten hours. Not even half a day. The dew point last evening was at or above 76 for four hours. 

The dew point since last evening has retreated to the merely miserable low 70s. Still, the overnight low (actual temperature) in Burlington was 78 degrees. If that holds through midnight tonight, it will shatter  the current record high minimum temperature for the date of 71 degrees.

If it gets up to 90 degrees in Burlington today, which is quiet likely, it will be the eleventh day this year to make it to the "magical" 90 degree level.

WHAT'S NEXT 

We're rinse and repeat today as the rest of the day will be a lot like Saturday. Skies will be partly cloudy, and some of those clouds will billow up into hit and miss showers and thunderstorms. It'll be about as hot as yesterday, with heat indexes also about the same.

And, if you do get hit by a shower, it'll cool the air, but the dew point will get ridiculous like it did last evening in Burlington. 

Just like yesterday, the storms will form near updrafts in the mountains, or where breezes off Lake Champlain collide with areas of hotter air inland. 

The one difference from yesterday could be up by the Canadian border. A cold front that will harass us for a few days might do an opening salvo. The front is way, way to the north, but will probably generate some thunderstorms north of Ottawa and Montreal and Quebec City.  

This could send a gust front toward the border with Vermont.  In turn, this gust front could produce some evening thunderstorms north of Route of 15.  Some of those storms could easily produce gusty winds and especially locally heavy rain. 

By the way, southern Quebec is under heat, severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall alerts. 

The front that's way north will struggle southward through Vermont Monday, Tuesday and possibly even into Wednesday.  Since it will move so slowly and bump up against such wet air, we're still seeing a flash flood threat Monday into Tuesday.

The biggest threat overall is in southern Quebec and western Maine. For Vermont, the biggest flood threat is north of Route 2. Local downpours could be enough to send too much water down the slopes of the northern Green Mountains and the hilly terrain of the Northeast Kingdom. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has these areas under a slight risk for flash floods tomorrow. 

However, if these floods develop, current forecast don't have them turning into the epic kind of flash floods we've seen in Kentucky, Illinois, Arizona and, most recently early this morning in South Dakota. 

Temperature forecasts during this transition will be tricky, and depend where the front is set up. Tomorrow, we might have a big range from humid low 70s up north to 90 down by Bennington and Brattleboro.

Soupy Air, Likely Heat Advisories And Local Flood Risks Through Tuesday In Vermont

Here's an interesting visible satellite photo taken shortly
after 5:30 p.m Thursday. The white blob in southwestern
Vermont is a severe thunderstorm. Severe storm clouds
tower up to 40,000 feet in the air. So you can see 
the dark areas in southeastern Vermont and northwestern
Massachusetts. Those areas were in the shadow of these
very tall storms. 

UPDATE 3:30 p.m. Friday.

I anticipated this, and now it's official. Heat Advisory in effect for parts of Vermont over the weekend. 

It's a long lasting one, starting at 1 p.m. Saturday and going to 8 p.m. Sunday.

I think the National Weather Service is letting it go that long since Saturday night won't offer all that much relief. Many of us will stay in the humid low 70s at night. 

As far as torrential rain and flash flood chances, they're nil for the rest of the day and night in northern Vermont as that boundary of sorts has made it in, shutting off storms. 

There's a few isolated storms forming in the southern half of Vermont, and it's still possible one or two could be heavy rainers.

Only isolated storms are in the forecast Saturday, but one or two spots could get deluged. Again, it will be isolated.

There's a slightly better chance of storms Sunday with the best chance of heavy rain still looking like Monday and Monday night

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

As expected, the air turned soupy as hell in Vermont yesterday, and we're stuck with this sticky air into Monday.

The incredibly high humidity for this time of year sets the stage for torrential downpours here and there. until more refreshing air finds its way to northern New England. 

It's classic flash flood weather, but I don't want to sound too alarming.  It just means that in some slow moving showers and storms in this weather regime, you can really pile up a lot of rain fast.  Few of us will actually see real trouble from this.  But there's a chance of local flash flooding into early next week. 

You can tell the risk is still quite low because I don't see any flash flood watches or alerts for anywhere around Vermont. But the risk is not zero. 

Just by walking outside, you can tell if there's the right trigger, the rain will come down in buckets. 

 When I walked out into my yard last evening, it really felt like air you could wear. You could actually kind of see the air.

It's only a slight exaggeration to say that I wasn't sure whether I was walking across my yard or swimming across it.  

Yesterday, clouds helped prevent both torrential thunderstorms and dangerous heat from building across the northern half of Vermont. But it southern Vermont, it got torrid, and the reward for that heat was some hefty thunderstorms, some of which carried warnings of damaging winds and such. 

The storm was particularly ferocious in the southwestern of Vermont, with lots of trees and wires down, some blocking roads, in Pawlet, Arlington and Bennington.  We have reports of similar damage in southeastern Vermont, around Newfane, Jamaica and Rockingham. 

These storms also dumped a good inch or more of rain easily in less than an hour. If those areas get additional torrential rains today, there could be some water issues there. 

More storms developed in the humid air this morning.  Residents around Hinesburg and Huntington awoke early this morning to quite a lightning barrage.  This storm dumped up to 1.5 inches of rain in a short period of time in parts of Chittenden County. The National Weather Service in South Burlington said the downpours fell just short of them needing to issue any flood advisories. However, they are watching this area in case they receive more buckets of rain later today.    

The root of all this potential trouble with water is a sluggish atmosphere and weather fronts lining up the "wrong" way. 

Most of the time, cold fronts that pass through Vermont are oriented in a generally north to south arrangement, while the air flow pushing the front is more or less west to east.

Which means that if that cold front can manage to create heavy rains, it won't last long in any one spot. The cold front will zip on through, and drier, rain-free air is hot on its tail. 

With the current weather set up, cold fronts or just weak nothing burger boundaries are kind of oriented west to east. So is the general air flow. So these fronts press southward only very slowly. Meanwhile, showers and storms move along the front or just ahead of it, west to east. That's the training I've been talking about. Storms repeatedly go over the same spot, and you get tons of rain.

Especially if the air just ahead of these fronts or boundaries is super humid. Which is what we're dealing with now. 

Then there's this added bonus. Around this time of year, the jet stream often retreats well north into Canada. 'Which means there's nothing to hurry anything along. So if thunderstorms form in the humid air, they don't move very fast. They dump a lot of rain in the same spot

On top of all that, there's something called backbuilding. Here's how that works: Say you have a mountain that creates a strong enough updraft to set off a thunderstorm.  That storm starts to move on to the east, but the updraft continues, so the storm keeps redeveloping over that same mountain, over and over until you get inches of rain.

There's no telling whether any of these scenarios will develop over the next few days anywhere in Vermont, but there's that low, but not zero risk that it could.

 Some of the heaviest ones today, especially if a particular spot gets several downpours in a row, could produce some ponding on the roads. There's a weak excuse for a weather front around Vermont now, oriented west to east, with showers moving along it.   As I write this early today, more downpours were lined up in New York, ready to come across Lake Champlain and hit north central Vermont again. Just like the earlier downpour. 

The weather front wannabe is is slowly sagging southward across Vermont while dissipating, so downpours will probably get more scattered, especially north.  So, I have a feeling this morning's downpours will begin to wane a bit, especially north.

Also, you might get some gullywashers, damage to the side of gravel roads or driveways, that sort of thing. Nothing widespread, though.  

In the hot, humid air that will be over us all weekend, there won't be much there to trigger thunderstorms. So they will probably be few and far between both days. 

However, isolated, slow moving storms could form in the updrafts in the mountains, which could unleash more torrents of rain in just one or two spots. In any event, take it easy this weekend. The combination of heat and humidity will make vigorous outdoor activity rather dangerous. 

Another front, a "real" cold front, looks like it will slowly shift north to south across Vermont early in the week.  Again, the flow will be parallel to the front, so that means we could get those "training" storms again, one after another over the same spots. 

We'll need to wait until we get closer to the beginning of the week to see how that all shakes out. 

Hot And Humid And Stormy Trend Underway, With Some Adjustments

Cloudy skies like this over my St. Albans, Vermont
house late this morning will keep it from getting as
hot as forecast today. No 90 degree weather in 
northern Vermont today after all, but it will
still be uncomfortably humid. 

 Our spell of hot, humid, stormy weather in Vermont is just now getting underway as of 11 a.m. Thursday, but already, there are a few changes in the forecast.  

A band of clouds has spilled into most of Vermont, which means afternoon temperatures today won't be as hot in central and northern areas as first thought. But the humidity is rising steadily and it will still be a sweaty afternoon.

Far southern Vermont and the rest of southern New England will still really feel the heat this afternoon, and down there, some record highs for the date will probably be set. 

For now, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is sticking today's heat advisories in the Champlain Valley and a lot of the valleys in central and southern Vermont. Northern areas might not actually meet the criteria for a heat advisory, which is a combination of hot air and humidity that makes it feel like it's 95 to 100 degrees. 

Usually, when you get as many clouds as the northern two thirds of Vermont seems to be getting today, you can forget about any thunderstorms forming. 

But, with the building humidity and a so-called cold front to our north, I still think some showers and thunderstorms will blossom. And with that wet air, some of these storms and showers should have some torrential downpours today and early tonight. However, the clouds probably will temper the intensity of the showers and storms somewhat. 

Not everyone will get blasted by heavy rain. It's kind of a hit and miss arrangement today, which as you probably know is typical for summer. I picture some places getting a trace of rain, while a lucky few get blasted by an inch or more. Most of us will see less than a half inch of rain today. Much less in many cases. 

The relatively low chance of any severe storms would come in the form of what is known by the decidedly non-sexy term "wet microburst."  That's basically when a thunderstorm collapses, releasing all of its rain and wind all at once. That down rush of rain in a wet microburst causes damaging winds, zero visibility and the risk of flash flooding in a relatively small area, say a couple to a few miles long and a mile or so wide. 

If any wet microbursts happen today in Vermont, they'll be few and far between. 

Another thing we still need to watch is the risk that some thunderstorms or series of them, could touch of a very local flash flood.  The low but real risk of these goes from about now through tomorrow. I'm thinking the best chances of a heavy rainer that could bring a bit of high water is over northern and central Vermont today, then central and southern Vermont tomorrow. 

It has been dry, which will help prevent flash flooding, but if it rains hard enough for long enough, it can still happen.

Just to be on the safe side, if you're camping on the woods or something like that, do it on a hill, not next to a stream or brook. 

They keep calling what's coming at us as a cold front, but it's a cold front in name only. I suppose northern areas might end up being every so slightly less humid behind the front tomorrow, but it will still be humid.

The heat and humidity will reassert itself over the weekend, with the ever present chance of a few scattered thunderstorms and downpours. 

Another cold front, this time a real one, still looks like it wants to come in early next week. Since it will be a slow mover with plenty of humidity to work with, we'll also have to watch out for local flash floods then. 

With all the clouds around

Vermont's First Sustained Spell Of Very Warm Weather On Tap, But Still Avoiding Killer Heatwaves

The bank of hydrangea along my lower deck in St. 
Albans, Vermont getting a welcome, but light 
drink of water this morning.  Weather in 
coming days is forecast to turn warm and humid,
but extreme heat will continue to avoid Vermont 

 It'll be relatively cool today and tonight in Vermont. Enjoy it, because the first sustained spell of warm and humid weather in awhile is coming up next. 

On the bright side, those huge, record heat waves that keep cropping up this summer like mosquitoes at a swampy garden party will keep avoiding Vermont. The Green Mountain state weather will become a little uncomfortable, but thankfully not scary torrid. 

A disturbance in the atmosphere is keeping Vermont cloudy and kind of showery, at least in the north.  That'll help hold temperatures down in the 70s or most of us tonight.  Tonight will be nice and cool, too with clearing skies. Fifties or most of us 40s in the cold spots.

Friday and Saturday will be warm, as advertised, but actually not too bad. The humidity will not have crept up yet, so it won't be too oppressive. And the low humidity will encourage reasonably cool nights.

By Sunday, summer will be in full swing again. Temperatures will be way up in the 80s, and you'll feel the humidity creeping in, too. 

It's possible extra clouds and a few showers and storms on Monday will hold temperatures in the low 80s, but it will still be humid.

At this point, it looks like we'll have to wait until a cold front arrives around Thursday to once again escape the very warm, muggy conditions.

This weather pattern is typical of the summer doldrums that are common this time of year, but also highlights an odd but again, not weird contradiction. 

On one hand, it's getting too dry in most places. Drought is expanding pretty fast in New England. Part of Massachusetts is now in severe drought, according to U.S. Drought Monitor. In Vermont, it's drying up fast, too. 

Last week, the tiniest possible sliver of southeastern Vermont was considered to be in drought. This week, the entire eastern third of Vermont is in drought. Last week, 71 percent of Vermont was abnormally dry. This week, only a few pockets along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain are escaping that abnormally dry designation. 

So we need the rain. Warm, humid air can generate drenching thunderstorms. So, maybe, yay! 

However, those weak winds in the humid air can make thunderstorms just sit over the same spot for way too long, causing very localized, but destructive washouts and flash floods.  

We'll have no such issues today, as the showers (and possible garden variety thunderstorms) mostly in northern Vermont will not be nearly heavy enough to create any issues.  

A weather disturbance Monday could trigger some torrential downpours in spots on Monday, especially in the southern half of Vermont. Most of these storms will be welcome.  However, there's an outside chance a few could sit in one place for too long with too much rain, causing very local incidents of washouts, small stream flooding, that sort of thing.

That prediction is far from a slam dunk, so it's just something to keep in the back of your mind. There could also be additional local torrential downpours Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday in the humid air. 

 

Yes, Vermont Has Had A Humid, Icky Summer. Especially Nights

Flowers in my St. Albans, Vermont garden on a humid

morning this past July. It's been a VERY humid

summer in Vermont. 

If you think this summer in Vermont has been more humid Florida than refreshing cool Green Mountain State,  you're right.  

The normal spells of cool, dry air have been hard to come by this summer and August has been particularly terrible in that regard. 

One way to judge the humidity of a particular summer is to look at whether there's been a lot of warm nights. The temperatures stays up on muggy nights  compared to evenings when the humidity is low.

 If you get a night in Vermont that stays at 70 or above, it's stuffy, no matter how you look at it. 

To prove my point that this summer has been a humid one around here, the following paragraphs might have more than a few numbers. But it's pretty illustrative. 

So far this year, there have been 18 days in Burlington, Vermont that failed to get under 70 degrees for an overnight low. 

I haven't been able to check all years, but the number of days that failed to get below 70 in Burlington  seems iclose to a record.  Last year is considered the hottest summer on record in Burlington, but there were only 10 days that never got below 70 degrees. 

The year 1949, which had the most 90s on record, had only 14 days that stayed above 70.   This year so far we've had twelve 90 degree days, definitely well above normal but not close to the record of 26 such days. 

The year 2018  is so far barely beating out this year for stuffy nights .  There was 19 days at or above 70 that year. The year 2018 was the third hottest summer on record. It looks like this summer will come in fourth of fifth on that list.  

The bouts of stuffy nights this summer have been long lasting, We had four consecutive nights in late June in which that temperature stayed at or above 70 degrees.

July was regarded as relatively "cool" but that's because we had so many clouds that daytime temperatures were suppressed. We still had two 70 degree nights in July and many overnight "lows" that month were in the mid and upper 60s.    

Burlington had five consecutive days that stayed at or above 70 degrees from August 9-13, the longest stretch since 1901. We just endured a full week in which the low temperature was 69 or higher, with five of those seven nights staying at or above 70 degrees.

The more consecutive nights in which it is uncomfortable for sleeping, the more dangerous it gets. Many houses in Vermont have no air conditioning.  The longer a period of icky humid weather lasts, the more it can wear a person down.  That gets risky for people with underlying health conditions.  That's why we're always told to get people into cool spots like air conditioned rooms to give them and their bodies a break.

This morning in Burlington spelled slight "relief" as it was 66 degrees for  a low. But we have more Florida like weather to endure the next two days or so. 

All this mugginess and these uncomfortable nights in Vermont are consistent with climate change.  The world is getting hotter, so you it stands to reason that it would get hotter. Hotter air in general can hold more moisture, so it stands to reason that we'd get more humid weather, especially if the air flow is off the tropical Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico, which is frequent in the summer.

In the short term, relief is on the way. It's the end of August, so cold fronts are starting to have a little more oomph than they did midsummer.

A cold front is coming through Thursday night, and you are going to LOVE Friday.  The sun will be out, daytime temperatures will be only in the low 70s. More importantly, dew points will be in the 50s.  Dew points temperatures are a good measure of how uncomfortable it is out there.  

If the dew point is near 70, which it has been most of the time in the past week. If dew points are in the 50s, it's very comfortable.

We stand the risk of having more bouts of humidity as we go into September, but those periods will get shorter and shorter and weaker and weaker as we head into autumn.  It looks like it might get quite sticky again early next week, but that spell shouldn't last nearly as long as the one we are enduring now. 

Hot, Nasty Not As Loud As Forecast Sums Up This Vermont Evening (Update)

Strong thunderstorm over Georgia, Vermont Wednesday.
So far at least, thunderstorms are not as widespread across
central and northern Vermont as originally expected

UPDATE 5 PM

Nothing like a band of clouds to squelch thunderstorms, and mercifully keep the heat from getting as bad as it could have.   

Just when peak heating hours were arriving in Vermont, a band of debris clouds from storms that were over the Great Lakes last evening moved over.

Those clouds kept a lid on temperatures through most of Vermont today, preventing readings from rising into the 90s as expected. Forecasters were expecting some of these clouds, but they were thicker and more persistent than many expected. 

The clouds also stabilized the atmosphere somewhat, which has so far prevented many storms from forming.

The exception is far southern Vermont where it was in the 90s at least in the valleys for a time.  The sun and heat did allow some storms to erupt there, and severe thunderstorm warnings lit up this afternoon along the length of Route 9 in far southern parts of the state.

It's still wicked humid and there are remaining spots of sun here and there, so we can't rule out some showers and thunderstorms developing this evening and overnight. Another pretty good one did form in Addison County earlier this afternoon, and there were some small, widely scattered downpours over the central and northern Green Mountains

If any storms do develop tonight, they have the potential for torrential downpours.

Tomorrow still is looking very warm and very humid, so more storms might spark off ahead of a cold front that will come through Saturday morning with a whoosh of refreshing air. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

If you liked yesterday's heat, humidity and storms in Vermont, you're going to love today. 

We're in the peak of our nasty little spell of weather, bringing on the heat, humidity and storms. 

Wednesday was really just the preview.  As mentioned a couple days ago, this is the worst heat wave of the year in Vermont.  

Temperatures are "cooler" than some of the hot spells in June, but the humidity is so much higher this time  that the air feels hotter than anything we experienced earlier this season.

For instance,  the temperature was 90 degrees at mid-afternoon in Burlington Wednesday, but the heat index was 96.  I worked outdoors for an hour Wednesday afternoon and that left me soaked head to toe in sweat and exhausted. I retreated to the air conditioning, at least until the thunderstorms erupted. 

In this regime of heat and humidity, it doesn't take much to set off a thunderstorm, and once they do start, they roar to life very quickly. Yesterday, updrafts in the eastern Adirondacks seem to kick off two cluster of storms, both of which developed explosively.

It always seems like the Middlebury area gets nailed and this time was no exception.  A severe thunderstorm caused a little  damage here and there in parts of Addison County and that storm remained pretty strong as it moved east all the way into New Hampshire.

Another strong cluster of storms went organized near Plattsburgh, New York, with a report of penny sized hail there, then dramatically rolled through mostly Milton and Georgia where a few tree branches came down amid downpours, gusty winds and plenty of lightning, and then into the Northeast Kingdom, 

Some strong thunderstorms also blew through parts of central and eastern Vermont a little before midnight last night.  

EVEN WORSE TODAY

Describing yesterday's weather as I did above gives you a great idea of what to expect today.  Basically exactly the same as yesterday, except it will feel even hotter and there's a somewhat greater chance of severe storms than yesterday.

The heat advisories that covered most of Vermont's broader valleys yesterday have been expanded to cover all of Vermont today.  It's fairly rare to see those heat advisories encompass even the mountain towns. 

Once again today, actual temperatures will be around 90 - which isn't extreme for this time of year. But the air will feel like it's a little above 100 degrees in the Champlain Valley and some other lowland areas of Vermont.  The "cooler" zones of Vermont will feel like the mid-90s.

This is NOT the day you should be exerting yourself outdoors. Flee to the air conditioner, please. We're really in the danger zone this afternoon for heat exhaustion and heat stroke. I notices several communities in Vermont have set up cooling stations for those without air conditioning to seek relief. I strongly encourage a visit.

You could tell this morning the atmosphere was just itching for a fight. Through the haze and humidity, you could see some jagged clouds trying to erupt. 

The sky looked tropical and volatile St. Albans, Vermont

early this morning.  Heat, and high humidity will

help fuel scattered strong to severe thunderstorms

this afternoon and evening in Vermont.

The heat and humidity are creating a lot of instability. As the day heats up, thunderstorms will again develop explosively.  

If you watch the radar you might see, for instance, a nothingburger of a shower form somewhere in the Adirondacks and then you look again 15 minutes later that nothingburger has turned into a powerhouse thunderstorm.

These fast forming storms mean you might not necessarily get much of a warning before a strong or severe storm strikes.

As is always the case, today's storms will be hit and miss.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont in a slight risk zone for severe storms today. That's level two of five alert levels and means we'll probably end up with scattered reports of storm damage today. 

It's impossible to tell much in advance which of those relatively few places will receive damaging wind gusts, but there will almost certainly be a few of those lucky little buggers by late afternoon. 

Given how much humidity there is out there, the storms will have torrential downpours. 

The storms won't really be in a hurry to get from Point A to Point B, so those torrential downpours could linger over a particular spot to cause street flooding or small stream torrents and washouts in a few places. 

The risk of severe storms in Vermont will diminish but not entirely go away by evening.  The storms will bring almost no relief from the humidity, so we have another awfully stuffy night to look forward to.  There's always a chance a clap of thunder and a quick downpour might stir you from your already uncomfortable slumber overnight, too.

DO IT AGAIN FRIDAY?

Friday morning might feel vaguely less humid, but still stuffy.  The thunderstorms will have mixed the air and brought a tiny measure of "drier" air to the surface. But that won't last long.

Moisture in the air will pool again ahead of a cold front up in Quebec and Ontario.  This all sets the stage for another oppressive afternoon and evening with - of course! - scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. 

More on that tomorrow morning.  The cold front will cross through Saturday and you'll notice a distinct, welcome change in the air as we go through the day.  Sunday looks perfect at this point - sunny, warmish, but not that warm, with low humidity.  Also: Nighttimes will go into the 50s, for comfortable sleeping weather.