Potentially Historic Vermont Heat Wave Now Underway. But We Escaped Severe Weather - So Far

Since it's so hot, let's do winter scenes. This is in
Burlington, Vermont's Intervale in December, 2023

Well, the bright side is Vermont missed out on the severe thunderstorms last night. We were worried some intense storms would roll down on us from Ontario and Quebec. They missed Vermont and went mostly through central New York yesterday and last night. 

They just missed the southwest corner of Vermont. Instead, we got a few non-severe showers and storms. 

But, I'm burying the lede of course. The hot weather is here, and it could be historic. (No. "lede" is not spelled incorrectly. It's journalism speak for the first sentence of an article). 

And that first sentence is hot. Burlington is now forecast to reach 100 degrees tomorrow. If that happens, it will only be the fifth time since the late 1800s that has happened. 

The clouds and showers yesterday held temperatures down. The humidity certainly soared, but the relatively coolness of last evening means we haven't really felt the effects of the heat. 

Until this morning. Temperatures are rocketing up and it should be miserable by afternoon. Here's the usual daily forecast rundown for this very unusual hot weather

TODAY

We start the day with a lot of sun, so now the the heat dome is in place, temperatures should rocket up. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a high of 96 in Burlington today, which would tie the record set in 1911 and 2018.

It'll be in the 90s pretty much everywhere in Vermont today. That extreme heat warning stays in effect through Friday evening for the Champlain Valley, lowlands of southwest Vermont and the lower Connecticut River Valley. Those areas can expect heat indexes today, tomorrow and Friday to reach 105 degrees or even a little more. 

The rest of Vermont is under a heat advisory. That's because those areas might not quite meet the criteria  for an extreme heat warning as the heat index there would be a little under 105 degrees.

It doesn't really matter whether you're under an extreme heat warning or a heat advisory. It'll be very dangerous to do physical work outside today. And now's the time to start keeping tabs on heat-vulnerable people to make sure they're OK. 

The tired saying, "It's not the heat, it's the humidity" is partially true. It's the heat and the humidity. The dew point, a measure of how humid it feels, should be in the mid-70s in much of Vermont today. That's incredibly muggy and about as steamy as it could possibly get in Vermont. 

The next question is thunderstorms. I did see more of them lurking way up to the northwest of Montreal this morning. Those could come down and cause some trouble today. The heat and humidity could also cause sudden pop up storms around Vermont. I already saw a couple little ones appear out of nowhere a little after 8 a.m. today in northern New York. 

The glimmer of good news is if any form by afternoon, they might keep temperatures from rising quite as high as the forecasts indicate. 

The bad news is with all this heat and humidity around, something that starts as a small shower could blossom into a big, bad thunderstorm with damaging winds and torrential downpours almost within minutes. 

Keep your eye to the sky today, hopefully through a window in an air conditioned building. By the way, during heat waves like this, the threat of strong storms overnight doesn't go away like it usually does.  Big bad storms will be less likely tonight, but still possible. 

TOMORROW

The heat peaks. As noted, the National Weather Service is going for a high of 100 in Burlington tomorrow. The all time record high in Burlington is 101 degrees on August 11, 1944. It's been 100 degrees on July 3, 1911, June 19, 1995 and July 14, 1995. (Yeah, 1995 was a damn hot summer).

The all time hottest temperature in Vermont is an oldie, 105 degrees in Vernon, July 4, 1911.  I've been thinking that record is vulnerable in this age of climate change. I think a new statewide record will be established within the next few years. I don't think this heat wave will be the one to do it, but you never know. 

Still, the fact that tomorrow might well be Vermont's hottest day in 31 years is pretty impressive. 

Since the extreme heat and humidity will still be around, we do have to watch the possibility of strong or severe thunderstorms again. Like today, they will be hit and miss, but if you get hit by one, you'll know it. 

FRIDAY

It turns colder! The expected high in Burlington is 96 degrees. Yeah, still miserable. It'll get into the 90s across almost all the state again and the humidity will remain ridiculous. The effects of heat waves are cumulative We'll be in the third day of it by Friday, so those who are vulnerable to the heat will be really suffering by then .

If you know anyone without air conditioning who is elderly or has health problems, for gawd's sake check on them. And continue to "kidnap" them and bring them to fun, but air conditioned places. 

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

The heat wave ends, sort of, with a whimper. Starting Saturday or Sunday and continuing through the first half of next week afternoon highs will stop reaching the 90s and instead get well into the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. It will still be kind of humid. 

Since we all will have gone through a big, big heat wave, the moderately hot and fairly humid air will still have an effect on us. Continue making sure people are OK, because even typical summer weather can cause trouble after an intense heat wave 

As far as rain and storms go, forecasts beyond Saturday are all over the place, so flip a coin or something. We'll know more as we get closer to the weekend and next week. 

 

Near Record Highs, Strong Thunderstorms In Vermont Today

A large part of the eastern U.S., including
most of Vermont, is under a level 2
slight risk of severe thunderstorms today. 
Level 2 out of 5 risk levels is 
in the yellow shaded areas. 

Heat and storms is the story today, as our hot weather peaks and a what is technically considered a cold front lurks to our west today.
 

We got a preview yesterday as the heat over-performed in at least some places. 

The heat over-performed a bit on Thursday, Burlington reached 91 degrees. It was a little sunnier than expected during the afternoon, which helped raise the temperatures a bit. .

Burlington tied the record for lowest high for the date Thursday, with a muggy low of 71 degrees. 

Storms were also thankfully more lackluster than expected on Thursday. 

A few small storms popped up here and there, but didn't amount to much, just some local downpours in a handful of spots. Then we get into today, which should be dreadful 

TODAY

Stormy and hot and humid is the word. Definitely a busy day. Most of us should get through much of the day without storms. They should become a problem later in the day.

Heat

The low temperature -  if you can call it that - this morning was 73 degrees in Burlington. If that holds through midnight, which is iffy, we'll have another record high "low" temperature for the date. 

That sets the stage or record highs, which we have a good shot at  being tied or broken. 

 The expected high temperature in Burlington is 95 or 96 degrees. The record high for today is 94 set in 2017. In Montpelier, the expected high today is 93 04 94 or so.  The record high there today is 88 degrees.

St. Johnsbury probably won't break their record high, but they should get close.  The record high there is 94 degrees, and the forecast high is in the low 90s.  In southeast Vermont, in the lower Connecticut River Valley, highs today are expected to be in the 93 to 96 degree range. 

Needless to say, heat advisories are in effect for low elevations in western and southeast Vermont. Other parts of the state don't quite it the criteria for a heat advisory, but it will be close.  It will be a dangerous day for vigorous outdoor activity. Stay in the shade if you can, drink plenty of fluids,  and stay in the air conditioning if at all possible.  

Today would be a great day to "kidnap" your elderly neighbor, relative or friend who does not have air conditioning in their house. Take them to a cool movie, or a restaurant with drafty air conditioning. They'll need it. 

Storms

We started this morning with a few showers and downpours across eastern Vermont, but that's not the main show. 

Things should begin to fire up  this afternoon.  The heat and humidity puts us on a hair trigger for fast developing storms.  It doesn't take much to set off some instant potentially strong thunderstorms in this environment.  

However, the actual triggers for storms today are  somewhat lacking. You need strong winds aloft that change direction with elevation to really get a severe weather outbreak going. 

We're sort of missing  the strong upper winds. Also, the "cold front" is coming through basically in pieces later today and tonight, so there's no big change of air. And it's barely cooler behind the front. 

All that is working against severe weather. But not preventing it. 

The models still disagree as of this morning about how many storms will form, and how bad they'll be, ad how they'll behave.  Something called the HRRR (a rapid refresh model that's updated every hour) has a fair number of storms, some possibly severe entering western Vermont by mid-afternoon. Other models wait until early evening to bring on the storms.  

The American computer model seems to think today will turn into something of a yawner. I'm not buying the American model, really. (The American model doesn't provide as much detail as some of the others). Other models bring in some potential strong storms, but not as aggressively as the HRRR. Pick your poison. 

I think the end result is a few of us will end up blasted by strong to severe storms. Many of us will at least hear thunder and get some rain, maybe a downpour.  Some towns will get nothing at all. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center pretty much has nearly all of Vermont in a slight risk for severe storms. That's a level 2 out of 5 risk. It means scattered severe storms are a good bet. Far eastern Vermont as of early this morning was in a level 1 marginal risk of isolated severe storms. 

This risk zone might be updated or changed later this morning. The key is the upper level winds. If they're even more lame than forecast, the risk of bad storms goes down. .If those winds increase, so does the risk of wild storms. Stay tuned on that as well. 

As always, we don't know who gets the severe storms until right before it happens. Between the heat, humidity and the storm risk, jettison your hiking plans.  Making today more complicated, the lack of high winds aloft means a severe storm could develop in a snap, then choke itself off quickly, only to be replaced by another strong storm not all that far away. 

Have a way to receive severe storm warnings. And, to be Captain Obvious once again, if you see dark clouds and hear thunder, it's time to get off the water, off the beach, out of the garden and head indoors.

Any storms that do form could have really torrential downpours. That could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a marginal risk zone for such floods. The vast majority of us will be fine, but again, you'll won't know where the damaging gullywashers will hit until they actually arrive.  

I'd say a storm could pop off anytime after about noon, but the best chances are from about 3 to 8 p.m. or so. 

WEEKEND

We're calling it a "cold front" coming through later Friday but that's pretty highfalutin way of describing the lame thing that's actually arriving. Sure, it will fire up some storms today, as mentioned. But when it's oppressively steamy out there, it doesn't take much to get storms going. 

The truth of the matter is it won't really be "colder" behind our cold front. The temperature will drop a few degrees, but it will stay awfully warm. It will be less humid, but not exactly bone-dry, either. 

Some details:

Saturday: 

Very warm and sunny, a perfect summer day in Vermont. Highs should get up into the mid and upper 80s, so it should be a nice beach or swimming hole day. A few puffy clouds might decorate the skies, making it all the more scenic . 

Sunday

Very warm to hot again. A few places in the lower Connecticut Valley and Champlain Valley could reach 90 degrees again. But a cold front will be approaching. A real one this time. It looks like the front will stir up a bunch of shower and thunderstorms again during the afternoon. We're waiting on more information, but for now, there's a chance of a few severe storms too. 

In fact, there might be a better chance of severe storms Sunday than we have today. We'll provide updates as we get closer to the event. 

EARLY WEEK

Behind the honest to goodness real cold front, it will, turn, obviously, cooler. But not cold. This won't really be weather whiplash. Instead, we'll see highs generally in the 70s for the first half of the week, maybe ticking up toward 80 degrees once we get toward Wednesday.   

A storm spinning up near Hudson Bay might swing a few light showers our way during the first half of the week, but it won't be anything to worry about. It'll be dry most of the time. 

Humidity,, Storms To Hassle Vermont For Next Three Days

Irises are a staple of June gardens in Vermont. This group
of purple irises in St. Albans was awaiting the 
expected showers and storms that are likely today'
through Friday. High humidity arrives, too. 

 Vermont's spell of spectacular June weather is over, at least for now. 

Tuesday was another winner.  A refreshingly cool start to the day yielded to highs in the 80s under sunny skies. Humidity was low. Perfect for whatever you were doing outdoors. 

Today through Friday, not so much. 

We woke up to clouds and haze and humidity that was beginning to creep upwards. As of 6:45 a.m, showers were already lurking in the Adirondacks. Humidity, clouds and showers, along with some sun, is the game for awhile around here.

Lets do the details: 

TODAY:

A small disturbance is working its way into the region from the west, along with a warm front of sorts. The result is a rising chance of showers, with a few thunderstorms rolled into the mess as we go through the day. The best chances of rain are late this afternoon and this evening. Despite the showers, we should make it to near 80 degrees today.

As is always the case with showers and storms, rainfall will be super variable, with one town on the road getting drenched and the next town over only getting a little.  

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center still has the interior Northeast, including Vermont in a marginal risk zone for flash floods today. That takes into account the risk for locally torrential downpours. That said, the overall risk for flash flooding today and tonight in Vermont is thankfully pretty low. 

But in general, forecasters think a half to three quarters of an inch is in the cards north, with maybe a quarter inch south by tomorrow morning.

THURSDAY

This will be the "nicest" of the three days of humidity we're focusing on. But most of you aren't going to love it. By tomorrow, dew points, a measure of how humid it feels out there, will continue to rise, reaching the upper 60s to near 70 by afternoon. That's oppressive. Since this will be the first real humid spell of the season, we're not used to it yet. So it will feel worse.

If you must work your butt off  outside, maybe don't work your butt off quite so much. And drink a lot of fluids. It can get dangerous. 

We'll have another smattering of showers and thunderstorms dancing around the landscape in the afternoon and evening, too. They probably won't as widespread as the stuff we'll get later today. Probably just half of us will get wet. 

The thunderstorms that get going tomorrow afternoon won't be severe, but a few of them will send a bucket full of torrential rain where they do hit. When it's as humid as we expect, you're going to get bursts of rain like that. 

FRIDAY

This will be the worst day of the stretch. It will be the hottest day of the bunch, and have the greatest threat of a few strong storms. 

There's still debate on how hot the actual temperature will be. If there's a lot of clouds and showers around morning and early to mid afternoon, we might not make it to 90 degrees. Sunshine will bring us to those 90 degree temperatures. 

Either way, we'll roast. Because of that humidity.  Dew points will stay in the upper 60s so hot. So hot, that the National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory Friday for the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York, and western Rutland County. 

The heat index Friday between noon and 8 p.m. could be around 95 degrees. The rest of Vermont doesn't quite fit the criteria for a heat advisory, but trust me, it will be plenty uncomfortable statewide 

The next problem is the expected rising chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. With a cold front starting to approach, we might have enough atmospheric energy to produce a couple strong or isolated severe storms. 

So far, it looks like the best dynamics for severe weather will be just to our west in New York, but the forecast will be adjusted as needed.

COOLING TREND

Luckily, the heat and humidity won't last forever. A series of cold fronts will come through, each one dropping our temperatures a bit. 

Friday night's cold front looks like it might give us a warm, but less humid Saturday. After that, we'll have a chance of showers each day heading into early next week, but daytime temperatures will only be in the 70s by Monday and Tuesday.  

Heat And Storms: Must Be July In Vermont, Also, Will This Be First Rain Free Weekend Since Last Year

A small sea of day lilies in St. Albans, Vermont this
morning gear up for a hot, humid Sunday. 

 It seemed strange Saturday morning waking up to cool temperatures in the 50s and finding parts of Vermont were under a heat advisory. 

But that heat advisory is indeed in effect for this afternoon in the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys and some low elevations in southwestern Vermont today as we get ready for a brief but pretty strong squirt of hot weather.

The surging heat struggling to make it toward Vermont Saturday as a weak warm front lingered to our north in Quebec. 

That sent some clouds down our way in the afternoon, tempering readings that had been expected to reach the mid-80s. Instead, at least in northern Vermont in was in the 70s to near 80.  

A few of those northern Vermont clouds yielded sprinkles. A few rain drops fell late Saturday afternoon here in St. Albans. So in a sense, that ruined the chances of having our first precipitation-free weekend since mid-December. 

But not officially. Not so much as a single raindrop fell at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, which is where this rainy weekend streak is being measured. So the 28 consecutive weekends with precipitation will end today unless at rains at the NWS office.

TODAY 

It could actually rain in Burlington today, which is a change from previous forecasts, though odds are still somewhat tilted against showers or storms there today.  

This morning, many of us woke up to a fairly comfortable dawn. Temperatures bottomed out near 60 in most places in Vermont away from the Champlain Valley. . Lows this morning in the Champlain Valley were in the armer low 70s. 

Temperature and humidity will rapidly increase through this morning as the hot blast of air flows in. In areas where the heat advisory is in effect, actual temperatures should hit the low 90s with a heat index in the upper 90s. 

Elsewhere in Vermont it will be uncomfortably hot, too.  It won't be as bad as that extreme, record breaking hot spell on June 23-24, but you will still want to take it easy.

The change in the forecast is the risk of a few thunderstorms this afternoon, especially over the northern half of the state. Previous forecast had indicated too much sinking air and dry conditions high overhead for any storms or showers to form.  

Now, we're not so sure. Some computer models have scattered storms developing while others have practically nothing this afternoon. It's a waiting game to see which ones are correct.  Already, an odd little downpour formed seemingly out of nowhere around  St. Albans shortly after  9 a.m. this morning. 

Almost anytime you have heat and humidity, there's always a chance a storm could fire up. If you have outdoor plans today, go ahead and enjoy, but just be ready to seek shelter inside a building, away from potential lightning, just in case.

MONDAY

There's a much better chance of showers and storms Monday as a weak cold front slowly sinks southward and approaches us from Quebec.

It'll still be very warm and quite humid, with temperatures in the 80s, with low 90s south. With the cold front pushing into that, we could get some decent storms. 

There's a fairly low but still real chance a couple storms could be severe, and an equally low but real chance we could have a few local flash flood issues. 

The biggest threat would be a microburst here or there. A microburst works as follows: 

Strong updrafts feed thunderstorms. Those updrafts also suspend lots of rain drops and hail stones up in the storm. Some storms will reach a point at which the updraft collapses, and all that rain comes down in a  great, high speed gush of downward moving air and water.

That gush hits the ground and causes an small swath of damaging winds and torrential rains. The damage area from these things are usually at most a mile or two wide and a few miles long. But they mean business!

Individual storms Monday should have a fast enough forward motion to prevent flash floods. The problem is the cold front itself will just be crawling southward at a snails pace.

Which means you could get one thunderstorm after another traveling west to east over the same path just south of the cold front. If that happens, a particular spot could get a few thunderstorms, and enough downpours to cause some local flash floods. At this point, it looks unlikely for Monday, but still definitely possible. 

The best chances of storms are in the northern half of Vermont, which will be closer to the front. 

BEYOND MONDAY

The cold front, such as it is, will still be struggling through southern Vermont Tuesday, so the best chances of more storms are down that way.  One slight wild card is soon to be former Tropical Storm Chantal.

It came ashore in South Carolina early today with top winds of 50 mph. Not a huge storm. Chantal's remnants are forecast move northeastward along the coast into or near southern New England midweek. 

Former Chantal's path could possibly slow the cold front down even more. We'll see.

In any event, this isn't exactly a powerhouse cold front. Temperatures for the rest of the week will remain near or a little warmer than normal for the rest of the week. We might get a bit of a break from the humidity Wednesday, but it will be brief.

It looks like humid, unsettled weather will probably return by Thursday.  

The Heat, Humidity And Rain And Storms Continue, But Relief Is On The Vermont Horizon

 We pretty much started August the way we endured almost all of July -- hot and humid. 

The early morning sky today in St. Albans, Vermont had
that humid, hazy, vaguely smoky quality to it that
almost always heralds a hot, humid day. Expect it
to be close to 90 this afternoon with crappy humidity. 

Will it ever end? Spoiler: Yes. 

It was 90 degrees yet again in Burlington on Thursday, the 12th day this year it's gotten at least the hot. I looked back in Burlington's weather records and could find only 18 summers out of the past 115 years that had as many days reaching 90 degrees.

This summer could well get into slightly more rare territory today. The forecast calls for a high of at least 90 degrees in Burlington today. A heat advisory has been posted for the Champlain Valley and the western half of Rutland county through 8 pm. today. 

The heat, combined with the humidity, should make it feel like it's in the mid-90s. The rest of Vermont didn't quite qualify for a heat advisory, but it will still be incredibly oppressive and dangerous if you're working too hard out there. 

Those of you involved in flood cleanup in the Northeast Kingdom need to slow it down and take a lot of water and shade breaks. I know you want to get back up on your feet, but please not at the expense of heat exhaustion or possibly fatal heat stroke. 

Heat effects are cumulative, and it's been nasty for awhile. Today was the fourth morning in a row in Burlington that didn't make it below 70 degrees. Take it easy, folks! 

To make matters even a bit worse, there will be some wildfire smoke in the air, too. Most of it will be aloft, so air quality shouldn't get too bad here on terra firma. But people with breathing issues should take care. A little pollution combined with the heat can be a nasty combo.

MORE RAIN CHANCES

Much like Thursday, any showers and thunderstorms that might pop up during the afternoon will be very few and far between. And probably small. So those of you spooked by the risk of flash floods can have a day off.  Some showers and a few storms might work their way into mostly southern Vermont overnight tonight. But soils aren't that wet down there. Southern Vermont can probably handle it 

Saturday, Saturday night and Sunday are different. On those days, there's a low, but not zero chance of local, isolated instances of renewed flash flooding. As if we need it. Showers and storms will increase both days as weather disturbances and cold fronts approach.  

As always, they will be hit and miss. As always in a Vermont summer, the distribution of rainfall is uneven. This year, it's extreme. In the past week, an area around St. Johnsbury has gotten at least 8.5 inches of rain. Here in St. Albans, the grand total over the past seven days adds up to just 0.2 inches. 

It's impossible to know in advance who will get nailed by downpours and who will escape with nothing worse than sprinkles. I'll emphasize if flash flooding does crop up again, it should be just isolated cases. You know the drill by now. 

It will remain quite warm and humid, though 90 degree temperatures seem unlikely given the expected clouds and showers. 

LONG LASTING RELIEF?

Notice above I said cold fronts. We're still looking at an extremely noticeable change in the weather pattern. One that will drop temperatures and especially humidity. 

You'll notice the humidity declining Monday. Perhaps not until later in the day, but it seems to be on the way. And if the forecasts hold, Tuesday and Wednesday look downright refreshing. 

Knock on wood, this shift to cooler weather might have some staying power. Unlike the very few brief breaks we've seen this summer. Some extended forecasts have the coolish weather more or less continuing into mid-month. 

Not sure whether that will pan out. But we're past the peak of summer. We expect better and better chances of cool breaks as we go through the month. Even if we're still at risk of muggy, oppressive spells into early September. 

Ma Nature Partied On The Fourth Of July In Vermont/New England, Too! Heat, More Storms Due

Blossoming thunderstorms created all kinds of cloud
structures over St. Albans Vermont late Tuesday afternoon.

 If you're all partied out from the July 4th holiday, welcome to the club. Ma Nature had a grand old time in Vermont, and much of the rest of New England, too.

While most of us got through the holiday with tolerable weather, with a few stormy interruptions, some places endured severe thunderstorms, wind same and flash floods. 

I've been throwing out esoteric weather terms in this here blog thingy recently, and here's another. 

An outflow boundary. 

A bunch of thunderstorms got going late Tuesday morning and early afternoon near and west of Montreal. They tended to collapse  by mid-afternoon.

When they did that, they sent out a push of rain-cooled air toward northern New York and Vermont. This was kind of a min cold front. The cool outflow from the dying Quebec storms sort of pushed the stuffy, warm, humid air out ahead of it, kind of like a truck with a snowplow pushing snow out of the way. 

That created an updraft that took hold in the unstable, humid air to create a broken line of severe thunderstorms that swept south and southeastward across northern and central Vermont in the early evening. 

It turned out to be the first real severe storm outbreak of the summer in Vermont. That's a late arrival, but it was inevitable 

For the most part these were so-called pulse storms. They blossomed quickly along that outflow boundary from Quebec, transitioning from nothing burger little updrafts to full blown severe thunderstorms in minutes, then collapsing into remnant lighter showers with a few lingering rumbles of thunder. Next to these dying storms, new ones quickly erupted and repeated the cycle.

This is pretty common in a Vermont summer. 

Those of you who were unlucky enough to get caught in the peak strength of any of these storms saw some nasty winds, and hail to make things worse. Flooding became an issue I'm some areas, too, according to a list of storm reports from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

While high winds and hail were reported in several spots, it seems like two areas got nailed the worst. 

A complex of thunderstorms, with microbursts mixed in, hit near the western shores of Lake Champlain in New York and also affected the northern Champlain Islands of Vermont.  Numerous trees toppled in and around Grand Isle State Park. Quarter sized hail hit Alburgh.  

The storms weakened as the moved southeast toward Burlington. Still, Burlington managed a wind gust of 38 mph out of the storms. 

It was even worse in and near sections of Caledonia County.  East Hardwick took the brunt as that town was hit by two separate severe thunderstorms. Each of them toppled trees in the area and caused some flash flooding.   High water blocked two roads in East Hardwick

Flash flooding was worse and more widespread in New Hampshire and southern New England, as forecasts had indicated. New Hampshire really has had a challenge with flooding over the past ten days or so. 

HOT, HUMID, WET

Next up, a hot spell. Before the storms rolled in yesterday, the temperature over-performed in Burlington, reaching 90 degrees before the thunderstorms rolled in. Temperatures are forecast to top 90 degrees today and tomorrow, too, so three days in a row would make it an "official" heat wave.

The humidity remains high, so the "real feel" of this heat will be in the mid-90s. A heat advisory is up for the Champlain Valley this afternoon through Thursday. 

Amid all this humidity, a few storms might erupt again today. They should be much fewer and far between than yesterday. However, an isolated storm could cause one or two very local microbursts of damaging winds, and/or a local flash flood. 

Thunderstorms are even less likely amid the hot air and humidity Thursday. 

It ramps up again Friday as a dying cold front approaches. Guess what? Hot and humid again, but numerous storms will probably erupt in the afternoon.

Not sure yet where the strongest and most numerous ones might go on Friday, but early indications are some storms could be strong. And wet, with a renewed possibility of local flooding. 

We still have a  shower risk over the weekend, with the risk of heavier rain Sunday night and Monday. 

   

 

Hot Times Live On For The Weekend. Still An Early Week Flood Question

Calla Lillies on the left like the warm, humid air in 
Vermont but the cool weather annuals to the right
are also hanging in there, St. Albans, Vermont. 

 That weak, so-called cold front yesterday actually managed to make things kind of nice, at least in northern Vermont last evening and overnight. 

It was still warm and humid, but manageable. The evening working in the garden was pleasant, and I didn't wilt taking the dogs out early this morning. Call that a win! 

It won't last long.  The air flow has turned to the south again, and the humid air is flooding back in for a weekend stay.  Temperatures will be a bit trick to forecast, but the bottom line is it will be uncomfortable out there. 

The heat advisories stay in effect for the Champlain and lower Connecticut valleys and the lowlands of southwestern Vermont. It'll feel like it's in the upper 90s both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. The rest of the Green Mountain State won't feel quite that hot, but close. 

You'll want to take it easy this weekend. 

I said actual afternoon temperatures both days will be tricky to forecast, especially Sunday.

The air mass this afternoon will be primed to support some good thunderstorms, but there's no trigger to launch them. Which means a few isolated storms will form over the mountains, then quickly collapse for lack of lift and winds in the atmosphere. 

Those collapses will consist of a small patch of brief torrential rain and an outflow of coolish breezes that will spread out from the dying storm. Those few of us who catch such a breeze this afternoon might not make it to the 88 to 93 degree range, which most of us are expecting.

If any of these brief mountain storms get going today, they could happen anywhere in the Green Mountains, but the best chance of them to me seems to be about from Killington south. 

Sunday could have some similarities to Thursday, when clouds held back temperatures a bit in some parts of the area.

Clouds left over from dead thunderstorms to our west and north might or might not come into the picture Sunday.  If they do, then it will be awfully humid with temperatures in the 80s.  If it stays sunny, it will still be awfully humid, but it will be in the low 90s. 

There will be a few potentially torrential thunderstorms around on Sunday as well, but they still look fairly few and far between.  Those who get hit, though, might expect a real gully washer. 

The heavy rain and somewhat bigger flood threat comes on Monday when a cold front slowly sags southward into Vermont and runs up against all that wet air. 

There's disagreement on where the heaviest rain will set up, but it still seems there will be some potential for localized flash flooding. It's something to keep an eye on.

More Needed Rain, And Multifaceted Challenging Vermont Weekend Forecasts

Yesterday we bought the annuals we need to make our pots
planters and window boxes look lovely for the summer.
It's going to be hot, humid work starting this job
over the weekend. 

 We're used to ifs ands or buts in Vermont weather forecasts as the Green Mountain State can be a challenging place to forecast what the heck will come out of the sky, if anything.  

This weekend is a classic case in point, with questions about how hot it will get both days, whether severe thunderstorms manage to pop up later Saturday, and how widespread showers and storms might be on Sunday. 

Prepare for surprises, but also prepare to sweat it out: It's going to be an oppressively warm to hot, and very humid weekend. 

First, though, a quick review of yesterday's little soaker. In northern Vermont, the rain was a little heavier than forecast. Which is a good thing, to keep things well wetted down.  Most of us got a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a few drier spots here and there. 

In Burlington, yesterday's rain brought the month's total so far in May to 2.2 which is right at normal for this date of the month. That's also more rain than fell all of last May, when we had just 1.42 inches. 

Next up, let's untangle the weather for the next few days. Do note that the forecast will almost definitely change one way or another, but this is what it looks like at this point:

TODAY

Today will be a big transition day. It's starting off chilly with partly cloudy to clear skies, with plenty of areas of dense fog. The fog will burn off quickly, and temperatures will zoom up to around 80 degrees by mid to late afternoon. You'll notice humidity starting to creep up as well. 

The question marks for today and this evening are a fairly strong disturbance passing to our south and a weaker one tonight to our north. The southern one will probably set off a few severe thunderstorms in and around Pennsylvania. 

Up here, definitely nothing severe, but some showers of a rumble of thunder could develop overnight because of the two systems. It will end up being muggy overnight, too.  

SATURDAY

Hoo-boy, you're going to be hot. Temperatures in the warmer valleys could easily get to 90 degrees unless more clouds roll in than expected. This hot spell is going to be much more humid than the one last week, so it will feel worse. 

Bad enough for the National Weather Service to hoist Vermont's first heat advisories of this summer season. Those heat advisories are in effect Saturday afternoon and evening in the Champlain Valley and low elevations of southwestern Vermont from about Milton south, and for the lower Connecticut River Valley from about White River Junction south. 

The heat index in the advisory zones will be around 95 degrees. If you're outside the heat advisory zone, it's still going to be uncomfortable.  At this point, the actual high temperature for Burlington Saturday is 92 degrees, which would tie the record for the date. We shall see! 

The forecast for thunderstorms Saturday hasn't changed much from the CAPE vs cap discussion I had yesterday.

CAPE, the potential for storms in the atmosphere will be really high, but you need a trigger for storms, and a way for them to get going. A layer of warm air aloft - which is the cap - will tend to prevent the towering updrafts that lead to thunderstorms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is maintaining a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms  - level 2 of 5 alert levels
for us on Sunday

However, the air tomorrow will be volatile with the CAPE. If any updrafts break the cap, chances are the updraft would quickly become a strong to severe thunderstorm.  As it looks now, any storms that form late tomorrow afternoon or evening will be few and far between so that most of us will be unaffected. But if one forms near year, watch out, it could be a doozy.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe storms Saturday, the lowest level of alert in a five point scale. 

Saturday night will be stuffy with just a chance of a lingering storm. 

SUNDAY

Everything on Sunday depends on the timing of a cold front, how many clouds are out ahead of it, and how hot it gets.

We know Sunday will be quite humid.  If there's some sun, as currently expected, we'd get up into the upper 80s.

With the cold front approaching there's a decent shot of thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening, and some could be severe. 

How extensive the storms will be will depend on a few factors. If most of the day is cloudy, that would minimize instability and reduce the chances of severe weather. 

If we have a period of sunshine in the late morning to early and mid afternoon that would increase the chance of severe weather. 

We'll know more details as we get closer. For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk zone for severe storms. 

MONDAY

Blessedly much. much cooler and much, much less humid. 

Super Bowl Will Be Hottest On Record (UPDATE: Record Highs Set Further North, Too!)

A rare wintertime heat advisory is in effect this week around
Los Angeles, and Sunday's Super Bowl will be feature
the hottest temperatures of any for the big game.

Sunday's Super Bowl, featuring the Los Angeles Rams versus the Cincinnati Bengals, will be the hottest  Super Bowl on record. 

Sure, it's a premier winter event, but temperatures during the game will kick off in Los Angeles at 3:30 p.m. West Coast time, when temperatures are expecting to be in the upper 80s. 

The Los Angeles area is under a very rare (at least for this time of year) heat advisory through Sunday.  High temperatures in the region are forecast to range between 86 and 91 degrees over the next few days. 

As the Washington Post reports: 

"For the first time in California's history, the National Weather Service has issued heat advisories in February affecting more than 16 million people. Until this point, such advisories had occurred only between April and October."

High temperatures in downtown Los Angeles daily today through Sunday should be somewhere between 87 and 89 degrees.

This isn't the hottest it's ever been around Los Angeles this time of year, but it's up there. The all time hottest temperature in the city's downtown during February was 95 degrees in 1995.

Since these temperatures are unusually hot, but not entirely unprecedented, I do have questions as to why the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles pulled the trigger on a heat advisory.

That doesn't mean I oppose the idea. Temperatures in the upper 80s, especially considering the humidity won't be that bad, doesn't sound too awful. But if you're not acclimatized to that kind of weather, you can get yourself in trouble, especially if you don't drink enough (non-alcoholic) liquid.

I haven't seen any public announcements of the reasoning behind the heat advisory, but I can think of a couple good ones.

First of all, this is a long stretch of hot weather. Each day, starting Wednesday and forecast to continue through Sunday, will be 15 to 20 degrees warmer than average.  The longer a hot spell goes on, the more it affects people.

So this will tend to wear down people who must work outdoors.  

Perhaps an even bigger issue is the Super Bowl itself. Los Angeles will host a crap load of out of towners, many of whom are really not accustomed to summer hot spells in February.

Many of the people at the game will surely be from the Cincinnati area. Normal high temperatures in that part of the nation this time of year are in the low 40s. 

They won't be used to the heat, and half of them will be drinking tons of beer.

The heat is being accompanied by gusty downslope winds. Since December, the Los Angeles area has not seen the normal winter rains it should get. Early Thursday, a rare February brush fire forced evacuations around Laguna Beach, California.  As of mid-day, firefighters seemed to be gaining the upper hand on the fire. 

Further north, several daily record highs were set Thursday around the San Francisco Bay Area.  The San Francisco Airports reached 78 degrees, breaking the record for the hottest reading for the entire month of February.  Salinas tied its all-time February record, reaching 87 degrees.

Downslope winds in Oregon had temperatures in that state reaching 85 in the town of Brookings. This might be a February record for the entire state of Oregon.

More record highs are expected along the West Coast today into Sunday. 

Hot, Nasty Not As Loud As Forecast Sums Up This Vermont Evening (Update)

Strong thunderstorm over Georgia, Vermont Wednesday.
So far at least, thunderstorms are not as widespread across
central and northern Vermont as originally expected

UPDATE 5 PM

Nothing like a band of clouds to squelch thunderstorms, and mercifully keep the heat from getting as bad as it could have.   

Just when peak heating hours were arriving in Vermont, a band of debris clouds from storms that were over the Great Lakes last evening moved over.

Those clouds kept a lid on temperatures through most of Vermont today, preventing readings from rising into the 90s as expected. Forecasters were expecting some of these clouds, but they were thicker and more persistent than many expected. 

The clouds also stabilized the atmosphere somewhat, which has so far prevented many storms from forming.

The exception is far southern Vermont where it was in the 90s at least in the valleys for a time.  The sun and heat did allow some storms to erupt there, and severe thunderstorm warnings lit up this afternoon along the length of Route 9 in far southern parts of the state.

It's still wicked humid and there are remaining spots of sun here and there, so we can't rule out some showers and thunderstorms developing this evening and overnight. Another pretty good one did form in Addison County earlier this afternoon, and there were some small, widely scattered downpours over the central and northern Green Mountains

If any storms do develop tonight, they have the potential for torrential downpours.

Tomorrow still is looking very warm and very humid, so more storms might spark off ahead of a cold front that will come through Saturday morning with a whoosh of refreshing air. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

If you liked yesterday's heat, humidity and storms in Vermont, you're going to love today. 

We're in the peak of our nasty little spell of weather, bringing on the heat, humidity and storms. 

Wednesday was really just the preview.  As mentioned a couple days ago, this is the worst heat wave of the year in Vermont.  

Temperatures are "cooler" than some of the hot spells in June, but the humidity is so much higher this time  that the air feels hotter than anything we experienced earlier this season.

For instance,  the temperature was 90 degrees at mid-afternoon in Burlington Wednesday, but the heat index was 96.  I worked outdoors for an hour Wednesday afternoon and that left me soaked head to toe in sweat and exhausted. I retreated to the air conditioning, at least until the thunderstorms erupted. 

In this regime of heat and humidity, it doesn't take much to set off a thunderstorm, and once they do start, they roar to life very quickly. Yesterday, updrafts in the eastern Adirondacks seem to kick off two cluster of storms, both of which developed explosively.

It always seems like the Middlebury area gets nailed and this time was no exception.  A severe thunderstorm caused a little  damage here and there in parts of Addison County and that storm remained pretty strong as it moved east all the way into New Hampshire.

Another strong cluster of storms went organized near Plattsburgh, New York, with a report of penny sized hail there, then dramatically rolled through mostly Milton and Georgia where a few tree branches came down amid downpours, gusty winds and plenty of lightning, and then into the Northeast Kingdom, 

Some strong thunderstorms also blew through parts of central and eastern Vermont a little before midnight last night.  

EVEN WORSE TODAY

Describing yesterday's weather as I did above gives you a great idea of what to expect today.  Basically exactly the same as yesterday, except it will feel even hotter and there's a somewhat greater chance of severe storms than yesterday.

The heat advisories that covered most of Vermont's broader valleys yesterday have been expanded to cover all of Vermont today.  It's fairly rare to see those heat advisories encompass even the mountain towns. 

Once again today, actual temperatures will be around 90 - which isn't extreme for this time of year. But the air will feel like it's a little above 100 degrees in the Champlain Valley and some other lowland areas of Vermont.  The "cooler" zones of Vermont will feel like the mid-90s.

This is NOT the day you should be exerting yourself outdoors. Flee to the air conditioner, please. We're really in the danger zone this afternoon for heat exhaustion and heat stroke. I notices several communities in Vermont have set up cooling stations for those without air conditioning to seek relief. I strongly encourage a visit.

You could tell this morning the atmosphere was just itching for a fight. Through the haze and humidity, you could see some jagged clouds trying to erupt. 

The sky looked tropical and volatile St. Albans, Vermont

early this morning.  Heat, and high humidity will

help fuel scattered strong to severe thunderstorms

this afternoon and evening in Vermont.

The heat and humidity are creating a lot of instability. As the day heats up, thunderstorms will again develop explosively.  

If you watch the radar you might see, for instance, a nothingburger of a shower form somewhere in the Adirondacks and then you look again 15 minutes later that nothingburger has turned into a powerhouse thunderstorm.

These fast forming storms mean you might not necessarily get much of a warning before a strong or severe storm strikes.

As is always the case, today's storms will be hit and miss.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont in a slight risk zone for severe storms today. That's level two of five alert levels and means we'll probably end up with scattered reports of storm damage today. 

It's impossible to tell much in advance which of those relatively few places will receive damaging wind gusts, but there will almost certainly be a few of those lucky little buggers by late afternoon. 

Given how much humidity there is out there, the storms will have torrential downpours. 

The storms won't really be in a hurry to get from Point A to Point B, so those torrential downpours could linger over a particular spot to cause street flooding or small stream torrents and washouts in a few places. 

The risk of severe storms in Vermont will diminish but not entirely go away by evening.  The storms will bring almost no relief from the humidity, so we have another awfully stuffy night to look forward to.  There's always a chance a clap of thunder and a quick downpour might stir you from your already uncomfortable slumber overnight, too.

DO IT AGAIN FRIDAY?

Friday morning might feel vaguely less humid, but still stuffy.  The thunderstorms will have mixed the air and brought a tiny measure of "drier" air to the surface. But that won't last long.

Moisture in the air will pool again ahead of a cold front up in Quebec and Ontario.  This all sets the stage for another oppressive afternoon and evening with - of course! - scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. 

More on that tomorrow morning.  The cold front will cross through Saturday and you'll notice a distinct, welcome change in the air as we go through the day.  Sunday looks perfect at this point - sunny, warmish, but not that warm, with low humidity.  Also: Nighttimes will go into the 50s, for comfortable sleeping weather. 

Likely Worst Heat Wave Of Year In Vermont Even If Temperatures Aren't Highest

It's so hot this week I figure I'd treat you to a photo of a
heavy snowstorm in Burlington, Vermont 
from a few winters ago. 

 The hottest it's gotten so far this summer in Burlington, Vermont was a record 96 degrees way back on June 7.  

For those who don't like hot weather, the good news: It almost surely won't get that hot during this week's heat wave.  Now the bad news: This weeks 90 degree weather will feel probably feel hotter than that 96 degree day back in June. 

Back during the record heat in early June, the dew point, the best measure to figure out how humid it is out there, was only in the upper 50s to low 60s.  That's not very humid at all, really. 

A dew point like that, say on a day when the actual temperature is something like 80s degrees, makes for a very comfortable summer day.  Yes, it was uncomfortably hot in early June, but that was solely a function of high temperatures.

This week is different. It's wicked humid out there.  And it will stay that way through Friday, even as temperatures rise above the mid and upper 80s we've seen since Friday.

That dew point is now into the mid 60s, which is pretty humid. There's signs those dew point readings could go to the low 70s - maybe today, but more likely tomorrow and Thursday.   That'll drive the heat index - what the air actually feels like - to the mid 90s in parts of Vermont and surrounding areas today, and maybe near 100 degrees Wednesday and Thursday.

Meanwhile, actual temperatures will top out around 90 degrees for most of us, low 90s in the hot spots around Vermont.  That's really up there, but not as hot as it can get, and as mentioned, "cooler" than that early June spell of heat.

A heat advisory is up today for much of the Northeast, including the Champlain Valley and southwest and southeast corners of Vermont. Temperatures will feel like they're in the mid 90s even as actual temperatures barely crack 90 degrees.

There's no heat alerts for tomorrow - yet.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington will get us through today, they hoist new heat advisories or warnings Wednesday morning. The heat index tomorrow afternoon and evening should get to 100 degrees in spot. 

Thursday's looking just as bad, with a potential added twist. When it's this hot and humid, all you need is a trigger to set off some big thunderstorms, as I mentioned yesterday. 

There will be isolated thunderstorms today, and some overnight tonight as a disturbance skirts the Canadian border. Those might provide a few instances of torrential downpours. 

Wednesday looks almost storm free for most of the day.

A slightly stronger disturbance seems like it wants to approach us Thursday afternoon amid all this heat and humidity. That combination could well turn into a trigger for strong gusty thunderstorms.  It's so humid out there, that the rain will really come down incredibly hard with some of these, so expect a few instances of street flooding, driveway or back road washouts, that sort of thing. 

That's a couple days away, so it may or may not develop. Stay tuned. 

In any event, during this "worst of summer" heat wave, try to stay in the air conditioning. If you have to work outdoors or do strenuous activities outside, like I do today and tomorrow, take it easy. Like I will.

Drink plenty of water.  Take quite a few breaks. Get your butt into a cool place during rests to avoid heat exhaustion or gawd forbid heat stroke. Do you have elderly relatives or friends living in a house without air conditioning? Check on them, or better yet, grab 'em and take them out to someplace cool.  Even if it's for a random sight seeing drive in an air conditioned car.