Himalayan Cataclysmic Flood Has Nepal and Tibet Reeling: Will Climate Change Make This Type Of Disaster More Common?

The tragic aftermath of the epic Nepal flood last week.
We're not 100 percent sure yet whether climate change
was a contributing factor to this calamity. However
scientists say a warming world increases the odds
something like this will happen again in Nepal,
or anywhere else with tall mountains and glaciers.

 You've probably seen those horrific images by now of that impossibly enormous flash flood that blasted down a Nepalese river valley this week. 

The news on the aftermath keeps getting more and more tragic and horrifying. 

As of early Sunday, the death toll from the wild flood stood at 794, according to the BBC. Another 2,502 people are missing. 

The flood occurred on the Nepal-Tibet border, but many foreigners were in the disaster zone. India reports 320 missing people. China has nearly 100 nationals missing. Ninety people from the United States are also missing. So are dozens of people from Ukraine, Malaysia, Australia, the UK and other countries. 

There were some bright spots of survival. A school headmaster made a snap decision to evacuate 900 students in the building after hearing reports something was wrong upstream. He also got word to another 800 students who were on the way to school to stay uphill and away from the school.

All the students ran up a hill and survived. The headmaster said that had he waited another 10 minutes, himself and all the students would have died. He could have made another decision. The school was a fair distance above the river and normally would not have been threatened by floods. This time was different. 

The Nepalese calamity was shocking, beyond tragic, and scary as hell. And something like this could happen again as climate change warms the planet and thaws ice and permafrost on tall mountains around the world. 

WHAT HAPPENED

We don't yet know whether climate change had a hand in causing the tragedy in Nepal. It could have been a freak occurrence. More research on the disaster needs to be completed before we can draw firm conclusions. A full understanding of what happened will take months. 

Here's what we at least think we know so far: 

 As the Washington Post reported:

"High-resolution images taken by satellite monitoring company Planet Labs show the site of the apparent landslide high in the Himalayas, close to the Nepal-China border." (Editor's note: China claims Tibet, but Tibetan exiles dispute that. The China in that quote is actually Tibet). ....."In the 'before' image a glacier can be seen looming some 4,000 feet above a narrow valley, emptying into the meandering Lhende River.

Afterward, the glacier appears smaller by about 2 million square feet - equal to the area of about 25 professional soccer fields. The valley is strewn with ice and mud. And the river is swollen beyond its banks, submerging the surrounding vegetation beneath murky brown floodwater."

When the glacier and rocks collapsed into the valley, seismographs detected it. At first geologist thought there had been an earthquake measuring 5.2 on he Richter scale, but the vibrations detected were the actual glacial collapse, not an earthquake.

Friction of the rocks and avalanche debris as it fell 1200 meters (nearly 4,000 feet) melted some of the ice. By the time the whole thing reached the valley it was a slurry, like wet cement. The New York Times was able to obtain and verify a video of huge chunks of ice falling from the Langtang Lirung mountain and crashing to the valley floor below. 

The debris briefly blocked the river on the valley floor and water piled up behind all those rocks and ice. But this wasn't a classic glacial lake outburst. 

Those outbursts are caused by meltwater trapped behind glacial ice. It finally breaks through, and a rush of water flows downstream. 

This was much worse. Water behind that enormous pile of unstable debris finally collapsed it, and the huge volume of slurry raced downstream. As it roared downstream, the mass of water and debris absorbed more trees, rocks and other debris, making the onrushing tidal wave larger and more powerful.

Nobody in the valley below knew what was about to hit them. It hadn't rained much in the days prior to the huge flood. It was rather sunny and nice that day. For many, the first warning was the roar of the onrushing debris, mud and water. It was too late to escape. 

CLIMATE CHANGE?

As I mentioned above, we don't yet know if climate change had anything to do with the calamity in Nepal. 

However, those rising temperatures across the globe thaws permafrost in high cold mountains.  That permafrost is sometimes the "glue" that holds rock and ice together atop steep mountain slopes. Melt the permafrost and everything falls apart. 

Scientists are saying that fact makes disasters like this one more likely in the coming years. Not only in Himalayan mountains, but any high mountain range in the world with glaciers clinging to their upper slopes. 

As the Washington Post notes, we have seen several glacial collapse disasters in recent years, either through the actual collapse or the floods they often cause. Glacial collapses buried a village in Switzerland in May, 2025. 

Another smaller glacial collapse killed 11 hikers in Italy back in 2022. Another glacial collapse triggered floods in 2021 that swept away at least 200 people in India. 

Investigators want more information on exactly what happened in that Himalayan mountain valley. And in the rocks and glacier above. 

The fear is this type of thing will happen more frequently. "Glaciers are going to shrink and melt. Permafrost....will be warming and weakening and degrading over time. You'll get landslides and debris flows.....You take all that together and you can say climate change is going to have a destabilizing effect on these high mountain regions," said Simon Cook, a University of Dundee glaciologist, who is part of a team reviewing satellite images that show where the disaster began. 

The planet's tectonics might have worked in concert with climate change to cause the calamity. 

The glacier involved in the disaster is way up high on a Himalayan mountain called Langtang Lirung,  with an elevation of 23,734 feet. At least right now. 

Langtang Lirung, like the rest of the Himalayas are slowly rising due to the collision of tectonic plates dating back tens of millions of years. The Himalayan mountains continue to grow in elevation at roughly the rate of 0.3 inches per year.  Over millennia, that's thousands of feet. 

Glaciers have been on these mountains for millennia, too. As the mountains grow taller, they ever so slowly get steeper. Over thousands of years, the steep slopes become too much for the glaciers, and pieces of them break off.

Now, with the permafrost melting, making the rocks and the ice become more and more unglued, the chances of those steep slope glacier collapses happening prematurely have increased exponentially.  

Early warning systems in the region where this disaster happened weren't great. Let's hope governments upgrade these systems in Nepal, and near other risky mountains, including some in the United States. 

Videos:

The giant, sudden flood overwhelms and destroys a hydroelectric dam that was under construction. Click on this link to view,  or if you see the image below, click on that. 

This one has been all over social media, but it's still incredible dramatic and scary. A family is trapped on the upper floors of a house amid the raging torrent of the Nepal flood. Somehow the house remained standing and the family survived. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

This is a good video with several clips that give you an idea of the breadth and power of the extreme Nepal deluge. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 One video, taken from one location, shows how quickly the disaster escalated and how fast it engulfed surprisingly large areas, including some that at first you would have thought were safely above flood level.  Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Vermont (Mostly Dodged A Flood Bullet While Nearby New York's Hudson Valley Is A Flood Disaster Zone

Rescue operations during yesterday's big flood in
New York's Capitol District. Vermont dodged a 
bullet as the bulk of the heavy rain fell just
to the west of southern Vermont

 Phew!

Vermont is waking up to a little flood damage in the southern end of the state, but nothing catastrophic. 

The big flood came right up to our doorstep - taking out homes and business and roads and cars in the Hudson Valley just a short drive from the Bennington, Vermont area.

Nearly a foot of rain fell on some communities just south of Albany. Albany itself had just under seven inches of rain out of this. 

Rainfall totals in parts of far southern Vermont were impressive, too. A handful of towns in the far southern Green Mountains reported storm totals of around five inches. 

Any damage to southern Vermont is overshadowed by what happened in the Albany Capitol District, but I'm sure there's some road and driveway damage in some steep areas of the extreme southern Green Mountains. 

I saw reports of the Deerfield River in Wilmington running very high, and the Beaver Brook in that town over its banks. A sink hold formed on
 East Main Street in Wilmington. 

Vermont definitely suffers flood PTSD after the horrific floods of 2023 and 2024 and the lesser, but still destructive Northeast Kingdom flash flood of 2025. I saw a WPTZ report of nervousness in Montpelier on Wednesday as the devastating flood of 2023 is still fresh in everyone's memory. 

Montpelier was never forecast to have serious flood problems with this storm. And it turns out they only received 0.63 inches of rain through early this morning, which is less than had been expected.

To be on the safe side, the Vermont Urban Search and Rescue Task Force deployed two squads, one in Wilmington and the other in Ludlow to respond to any water crises.

So, anytime there's any sort of flood threat in Vermont, people get nervous. 

Believe it or not, Vermont isn't entirely free from flood threats over the coming days, though I'd emphasize that for now, it's just a weather system that bears watching Sunday and Monday. There's a chance that we could see some heavy rain on those days, but it's way too soon to say whether it will be just the usual brief summer downpours or something else.

Let's get into the daily details

TODAY

Kind of a grungy summer day with only a little sun here and there and an ever-present chance of showers. Much like yesterday, it'll be kind of humid but not that warm with highs in the 70s. 

The storm that brought the Hudson Valley flood is not entirely out of our hair, though the torrential rains associated with it are gone.  So many areas will see a tenth of an inch of rain or less today. The Connecticut River Valley, which especially north of White River Junction largely missed out on the rain, could get up to a quarter inch today. No biggie.

FRIDAY

 A nicer day, though still on the humid side. We'll have a fair amount of sun, a slight chance of a shower for storm, but most of us will stay dry. It should get into the low 80s in most of Vermont

SATURDAY

Typical summer weather continues. Still on the humid side, with sunshine. Like the previous days, there might be some haze in the air from wildfires out west. And a very slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm thrown in. Highs once again in the 80s.

SUNDAY/MONDAY

Here's where we potentially run into trouble. Some models have a humid summer cold front come through with the usual showers and thunderstorms and brief torrents of rain. If that scenario plays out, then we're fine. 

However, some models slow things down, and develop another small, sluggish but very wet storm somewhere over or near New England or New York. If that happens, we could have more flood problems somewhere in the North Country. 

For now, don't worry about it, since we don't know yet how this will play out. But you should listen to updated forecasts as we get closer to Sunday and Monday, in the off chance things go south again. 

 

Dry-Ish Week Continues In Vermont. Past Two Months Have Been Mostly Wet, Giving Us A Drought Cushion

Rain falls from thunderstorm clouds over Lake Champlain
as the sun shines through the rain, Photo looking west
from St. Albans, Vermont on July 10, 2025

The first part of summer in Vermont was wet, but that seems to be sputtering, at least for now. 

The last rains in the Green Mountain State were some scattered showers and thunderstorms central and south on July 4. Northwest Vermont has been dry for several days now. 

The storm that's soaking and/or will soak the Mid-Atlantic states and far southern New England won't really be a factor in Vermont. 

Forecast rainfall far south is now only expected to be a quarter inch at best. Not the half inch to an inch we previously thought might happen. That southern Vermont rain, however light, should come through later today through tomorrow morning. 

There's still a chance the storm could jog north, but don't bet the farm on that. 

Except for scattered sprinkles this afternoon, no rain is forecast after this southern Vermont episode until later Thursday and Friday when a weak cold front is expected to approach and then pass through. 

Although we could end up with some locally heavy downpours with that front, in general, rainfall isn't looking that impressive with that front, at least for now.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington
released this map today showing most of 
Vermont has had above normal rainfall over 
the last two months. Yellow area are at
least two inches above normal. Orange areas
are at least four inches on the plus side 

I'm not really worried about drought. I won't be unless weeks go by without much rain. 

These dry spells happen almost every July. And the dry weather will reduce moisture in the ground somewhat. That drying would slightly lessen the risk of flash flooding if torrential rains hit later this summer. 

But this week's dry spell hits as the last vestiges of last summer's dryness finally dissipates in Vermont. 

 The latest U.S. Drought Report, issued last Thursday, had only the tiniest stripe of Vermont encompassing just 1 percent of the state right along the Massachusetts border as "abnormally dry."  

That's the best we've been since at least the late spring of 2025.

Abnormally dry means it's sort of close to drought, but not really there. But overall, Vermont is super lucky. Judging from the latest Drought Monitor map, the only states doing as well with moisture as Vermont are Ohio, Indiana and maybe Michigan.

Rainfall for all of Vermont except parts of the far south has been above normal for the past two months. Some areas north are two inches on the plus side. This all erased lingering drought in eastern Vermont. 

Drought, or at least the maldistribution of rainfall,  has really been a thing in the United States this year. And the shifts in particular areas between flooding and drought and flooding again have been wild. 

Parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland were in pretty steep droughts prior to the deluges causing flash floods there this week, if you want an example

A huge El Nino is developing, which will really keep the weather whacky here in Vermont and in the rest of the world through the next year or so. Even wackier than the climate-changed weather weirdness we've already experienced in recent years.

In general, strong El Ninos cause very warm and dry late summers and autumns here in Vermont, though there's no guarantee that will happen, There's always exceptions. But for now, we can just hope for the increasingly rare type of Goldilocks summer in the Green Mountain State, not too dry, not too wet, not too hot, not too cold. 

The rest of this week will be sort of an imperfect Goldilocks type of period, so I guess we should all enjoy that. 

Ice Jams, Flood Risk, Record Heat, Freezing Rain, Rain, Snow, Wind, Storms. Vermont March Weather Rolls On

Another view of an ice jam backing up water along the 
Missisquoi River in Enosburg Tuesday. The ice
jam closed Boston Post Road near Route 105.
Vermont is still  under a flood watch through
tomorrow

Mark Twain once said, "In the spring, I have counted 136 different kinds of weather inside of 24  hours."

He was referring to New England when he said it. I'd guess he might have been in Vermont in March when he came up with that gem. 

A day after we had a hottest for so early in the season warm spell in the Green Mountain State. temperatures this morning were in the low to mid 30s. 

As forecast, there were a couple drops of freezing rain in extreme northwest Vermont.  We weren't expecting much and there was even less freezing rain than the trifle we thought we'd get.

Before we move on, we should gaze back at the record highs, and how we are re-writing weather records in the age of climate change. March records have really shifted. Before 1990, Burlington had never reached 70 degrees earlier in the season than March 20.

Now with yesterday's 73 degrees - the warmest for so early in the season - it's been in the 70s eight times on or before March 20 since 1990. Six of those occasions have been since 2012.  

This isn't just a Vermont thing. Hundreds of record highs were set over the past few days in the central and eastern U.S. New York City reached 80 degrees, the earliest on record it's been that warm there.

Another record heat wave is set to begin next week in the western U.S. 

The switch to hot weather out West means we in Vermont will probably not be seeing more record high temperatures for awhile. 

A southward dip in the jet stream over eastern North America will keep colder weather and storminess in our neck of the woods for next couple of weeks. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

Eventually - later this morning or early this afternoon - the wind should swing back from a southerly direction, and that will pump temperatures back up in  to the 50s for most of us west of the Green Mountains. It'll probably stay in the mid and upper 40s east of the Greens. 

The good news is forecasters have cut back on the amount of rain we should expect between now and tomorrow morning. Don't celebrate too much, since we should still see enough rain, combined with snow melt and the last of the ice jams to keep us under a risk of flooding.  

The Otter Creek in Center Rutland is forecast to go into minor flood stage tomorrow. Other Vermont rivers are expected to get close to flood stage. And remember, these river level forecasts are iffy. Just a little extra rain, or a little extra snowmelt can make a big difference in how high the water gets.\

We should see some scattered showers, maybe even an isolated rumble of thunder here and there today. Much of the time should be dry, especially south and east. The rain should fill in to become more widespread later this afternoon and during the first half of tonight. 

THURSDAY

The sharp cold front will come in from the west mostly before dawn tomorrow, and that will send us back into winter. Temperatures will stay steady near the freezing point, or slowly fall during the day. Gusty winds will make it feel colder. At least the cold will shut off the snow melt and end the threat of flooding.

We could see some snow showers, but accumulations won't be anything to really worry about.

FRIDAY SATURDAY

A relatively small storm should come in from the west. We could get a couple inches of wet snow out of this later Friday into Saturday morning  By March, temperatures can be marginal between rain and snow. We'll want to take a closer look at this when we get closer. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

A larger storm is looming for the end of the weekend and start of next week.  This far ahead, it's hard to tell exactly what that means for us. For now, meteorologists are going with a period of snow and mixed precipitation Sunday, followed by a brief squirt of warm, windy, showery weather Monday, followed cold north winds and some snow Monday night and Tuesday. 

Since that storm is several days away, don't be surprised if the forecast for how it plays out changes big time. 

The cold wave next week looks pretty sharp and intense, even if it does't last all that long.  But we are possibly looking at a couple days with highs in the 20s and lows in the single numbers. Our false spring will definitely be over by then! 

After that cold wave, as usual, the weather forecast gets  really uncertain. But that's OK, we have more than enough on our plate for now. 

  

Other States Having Bad Weather Too: Florida Fire And Ice, Hawaii Flood, California Whiplash

Aerial view of one of the brush fires burning
in Florida. Drought, freeze damage, dry air
and gusty winds are causing several
wildfires around Florida. 

While all eyes are on the Blizzard of '26 ripping through the Northeast today, a few other areas of the United States are having their share of troubles, too. Florida is burning, and freezing again. Hawaii is flooding. Some of that deep snow California just got is about to wash away. 

Let's take a look, 

FLORIDA

After some record heat as relief from the freezes earlier this month, that New England nor'easter is pushing another shot of cold, dry air down into Florida. 

Freeze warnings once again cover most of Florida, extending as far down as southwest Florida below Naples. The freezes will hit areas already devastated by record cold in the opening week of February. 

Crops had just been replanted and had been growing in consistently warmer weather over the past two weeks. This will add to the destruction. One example is a tree farm in Indiantown consists mostly of just brown trees gutted and wilted by freezes earlier this month.

Worse, Florida is in a severe drought and the nor'easter is bringing gusty, very dry winds into the state today. Florida has had numerous wild lands fires this month already. The fire danger is almost off the charts today. 

One large fire blasted through 500 acres in Osceola County, Florida over the weekend.  Another brush fire earlier this month spread to a company that makes plastic pots and other equipment for plant nurseries. That fire sent thick clouds of black smoke billowing into the air.

It will turn warmer again in Florida later this week and it appears the frost danger will be over after Tuesday morning. However, not enough rain is expected to ease the drought, so the fire danger will probably last well into the spring. 

HAWAII

Torrential rains struck the island of Oahu in Hawaii over the weekend, causing some serious flash flooding. One town had 1.3 inches of rain in just a few minutes as the downpours passed through. 

Drone footage showed several homes flooded in Wailalua, as residents were evacuated by local officials.  Several roads were closed as water swept over them. The city and county on Honolulu have set up an online for for Oahu resident to report flood damage. 

Other video showed a stormwater easement that has never caused trouble gushing upward and pushing water into at least two homes. 

Moanalua Stream reached a record flood stage at 10.76 feet. KHON news showed video of many streets underwater, and torrents of muddy water pouring down steep hillsides. W driveways. ater lapped at doorsteps and flooded

The Honolulu Zoo also closed due to the heavy rain.

You can't directly blame a storm like this on climate change, but the Hawaiian storm is consistent with climate change's ability to make rain events more intense. 

Flood watches remained in effect until later today for large parts of the Hawaiian islands

The flooding was the second destructive storm in Hawaii this month. High winds on February 7 and 8 caused widespread damage in Hawaii on February 7-8.

CALIFORNIA

Last week, the higher elevations had a TON of snow last week. Snow fell at elevations as low as 2,000 feet. Higher elevations above 7,000 or 8,000 feet had 7 to 11 feet of snow 

Rain will fall tomorrow at elevations of up to 9.500 feet in California as the weather system is coming from the tropics. There is a flood risk, but on the bright side, the rainfall won't be super heavy. The flooding might occur on lower elevations that got some unusual snow last week. The melting snow and rain could raise river levels.

Higher up, the rain will just soak into the 7 to 10 feet of snow from last week. In a way, this is good, because it will increase the water content in the snow.

The rain will probably ruin what many in California said was some of the best powder days of their lives at resorts like Kirkwood. If you want to vicariously live through such a day in the California Sierras, click here for a Tahoe Mountain Life video showing the joy of eight feet of new powder on a bluebird winter day.

Spain Floods After Incredible Rains: 78 Inches In Just 20 Days

Lately, there always seems to be water underfoot in
Spain. Relentless storms have dumped feet of 
water on Spain this winter. 

 Climate change is making big rainfalls even bigger, but what happened in Spain recently is just insane. 

As the Washington Post reported on February 10:

"In the mountainous southwestern part of the country, Grazalema - in the Andalusia region - has recorded over 90 inches of rain so far this year, including 78 inches in just the last 20 days alone.

Meteorologist Nahel Belherze called it a 'hydrologically absurd' amount. It is more than what would typically fall in an entire year at that location."

The 6.5 feet of rain in 20 days included about 15 inches that fell in just one day. 

As the Washington Post explains ,  the root cause of the flooding and torrential rains was the same polar vortex disruption that drove the eastern United States into the deep freeze in the second half of January and the beginning to February.

Large, relatively warm high pressure parked itself over and near Greenland. That shoves colder air and active storm tracks further south than usual. 

In Spain's case,  a straight shot of super wet air from the Caribbean kept blasting into Spain and Portugal.

In Portugal, this atmospheric river caused a bunch of trouble there, too. Part of the main north/south highway through Portugal was closed when a section of it collapsed due to the flooding. 

The geology at and near where that 78 inches of rain fell is a bit weird.  The limestone soils have pockets in them where moisture collects. If there's too much water, it spills out in spots where there is less resistance, so springs and brooks just tend to appear out of nowhere. 

Video shows clear water coursing down streets, pouring out of homes and gushing out of sidewalks. Torrents of white water poured down terraced walkways between historic buildings. 

Portugal and Spain have been battered by eight storms in quick succession. A new storm hit today.   This time, heavy rain, thunder, snow and gales caused more widespread infrastructure and crop damage. This latest storm forced the evacuation of thousands of people,. 

A woman in Barcelona was killed when part of a warehouse roof blew off and hit her. 

Crop damage includes the loss of two million kilos of asparagus. The olive harvest in Spain has also fallen way behind schedule due to the rough weather. 

Spain and Portugal have always experienced atmospheric rivers, but this winter's have been unprecedented. 

Spain has also been tormented by a series of deadly floods in recent years. Among the worst was a flash flood in Valencia back in October, 2024 that killed more than 200 people. These storms are consistent with climate change, since a warming atmosphere can hold more water than in the past. Sometimes, this extra atmospheric moisture in intense, dangerous storms. 

Video: Water cascades through historic neighborhoods. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that. 

 

 

Vermont Still Struggles With 2023 Montpelier Flood Damage To State Buildings.

The Pavilion Building in Montpelier in the
immediate aftermath of the July, 2023 flood.
The pipes were for moisture and mold
remediation. The building still needs
a lot of work bringing the HVAC
and electrical systems out of the basement.

In yet another instance that proves it can take forever to recover from a catastrophic disaster, Vermont is still struggling to finish financing and repairs to state buildings from flooding two and a half years ago. 

Extreme flooding hit Vermont on July 10-11, 2023.  In that flood, downtown Montpelier was inundated. That flood affected 17 state office buildings in Montpelier, which is the state's capitol. 

According to Vermont Public, Gov Phil Scott's administration is asking for more time to determine how much it will cost to fully upgrade the state buildings affected by the flood. 

There's a deadline coming up in a few days (January 10) to accept a fixed cost for the work. But the state is going to ask FEMA for six more months to come up with a cost. 

FEMA has already given the state $30 million to clean up the mess left by the floods and to install temporary infrastructure to keep the buildings running. 

Chief Recover Officer Douglas Farnham told Vermont Public the total cost of the project will probably go over $200 million. FEMA would cover as much as 90 percent of those costs.

A main reason for the expense is some of this work is going to be expensive. The five-story Pavilion Building's heating, cooling and electrical systems are all in the basement. Turns out that's a bad place for that stuff when Montpelier floods. They're going to move all that equipment out of the basement, which is a great idea, but it will be a complex and expensive job. 

As Vermont Public reports, three buildings at 132, 134 and 136 State Street are still unoccupied. A fourth flood-damaged building at 144 State Street will probably be torn down. Unlike most of the other buildings involved,  The one-story building at 144 State is not considered a historic structure. so nobody will have to go through hoops to get rid of that building.

Even if the FEMA money comes through after the requested six month delay with that federal agency, it's going to take a long time to get Vermont state buildings up to snuff before the next flood. You need design plans, permits, equipment purchases. Then you have to install and construct everything. 

Another building, at 87 State Street in Montpelier, was flooded and never reoccupied. It's owned by the federal government. Officials this past summer announced the feds are putting that building up for sale. the Vermont state government has expressed interest in buying the building. 

The whole epic is just another example of how long it takes for state governments to fix all the infrastructure taken away by climate related disasters. This is going to keep happening. Perhaps over and over in the same states.

BEEN THERE, DONE THAT

That has already been the case here in Vermont. We've been through this before.  During Hurricane Irene in 2011, the State Office Complex in Waterbury was trashed by flooding. Some buildings had as much as eight feet of water in them. 

Twenty buildings had to be torn down due to the damage and the fact they were especially prone to additional floods. All the rest had to go through extensive repair. And a new, 86.000 square foot, more flood resilient building was added.  The renovated buildings and the new one were raised to above the 500-year flood level. 

Getting the whole 100-acre back together - and more flood proof - cost $130 million, which was up until now the largest state building project in Vermont  history, reports WCAX. 

Vermont taxpayers paid for most of that renovation. FEMA contributed $36 million and the state's insurance company paid roughly $15 million.

Some of that Waterbury reconstruction went toward projects that didn't have much to do with the flooding, but was still worthwhile. For instance, single-paned glass were replaced by weather-efficient windows. 

The grand re-opening after all this work didn't hit until December, 2015, more than four years after the flood. Between the 2011 flood and the late 2015 reopening, about 1,500 employees had been displaced, dealing with a big blow to the town of Waterbury's economy. 

I imagine this type of saga could happen in Vermont again. And in other states, As the federal government keeps reducing aid to states, it'll be harder and harder for some states to even function if a major disaster hits a state Capitol.  

Thursday Morning Vermont Storm Update: Expect

Expected rainfall with our upcoming storm is still
close to an inch or so. That, combined with melting
snow, might set off some scattered flooding on Friday. 

This morning, Vermont is in the calm before the storm, as we get ready for a blast of strong winds, possible power outages rain, and maybe some flooding. 

So let's get into what we think will happen with this storm, based on what the National Weather Service in South Burlington has assembled for us.

WIND, ROUND ONE

Wind storms have caused widespread damage across the western half of the U.S, and some of that energy will affect Vermont with this storm.

The first places in Vermont to see the wind will be the Champlain Valley, as south winds ahead of the storm funnel up the valley this afternoon and overnight. 

A wind advisory is up for the Champlain Valley from noon today until 7 a.m. Friday.   Those gusts could reach as high as 50 or 55 mph, so expect a few power outages. There's a lot of Christmas decorations out there. If you have 'em, it might be a good idea to go out and secure them this morning, or take them indoors temporarily. 

If you do take them indoors, you might not want to put them back out until Saturday. More on that in a bit. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, today and tonight will be blustery but it won't be as bad as in the Champlain Valley. 

Temperatures that were below freezing for awhile this morning will rise all day and through the night, rising through the 30s today and 40s tonight. 

We won't see much rain with this storm probably until after midnight. Once it starts to rain in earnest, the wind might diminish somewhat in most, but not all areas. A few unpredictable pockets could still have some strong winds. And it will remain rather gusty in the Champlain Valley even after the rain gets going in the hours before dawn Friday. 

In other words, expect a noisy night. 

RAIN/FLOOD RISK

Overall, NWS/Burlington expects about an inch of rain more or less across Vermont. Really, between about 0.75 and 1.25 inches. That warm weather overnight an early Friday will add another inch or snow of "rain" in the form of snowmelt from the mountains. 

Most of this would come within about 18 hours, so that's a pretty fast flush of water into Vermont's rivers.  That could be enough to set of some minor flooding.  Most of the rain would come between about 3 a.m. and noon Friday, give or take a couple hours either side. 

For now, the Mad River at Moretown is forecast to rise to just under minor flood stage around noon tomorrow.  The Otter Creek at Center Rutland would be just under flood stage Friday afternoon or evening.

As of early this morning, there's not yet forecast peak river level forecasts for the Winooski, Lamoille, Missisquoi, Passumpsic and other Vermont rivers, but I'm sure you'll see sharp rises with those. 

Also  some small streams might get too rowdy, there might be some street flooding, and newly created ponds in some backyards. State highways for the morning commute will probably become Hydroplane Hell. 

The river crest forecasts we have are not set in stone, so keep an eye out if you live or drive or work in a flood-prone spot.  This storm reminds me a little of the one we got in December, 2023. That one produced unexpectedly destructive flooding across much of Vermont. 

I do NOT expect things to get nearly as bad as December, 2023.  We won't have as much rain, and it won't rain for as long a period as it did in 2023. The ground before tomorrow's storm is drier than in 2023 and river levels before the storm are lower than in 2023. Which is why we won't have a repeat of that December flood two years ago.   

However, given how much moisture this storm has, and how climate change has sometimes made storms more intense than expect, it's possible we'll be surprised in the end with a few flood-closed roads and maybe even a few basements with water in them.

Overall, it will be a wet feet kind of day on Friday. 

WIND, ROUND TWO

The storm's strong cold front should blow through Vermont between mid morning and mid-afternoon. At least that's the timing we're thinking at this point. 

It looks like the cold front will come through with a big gush of wind and rain. It'll essentially act like a squall. The high winds with it won't last long, but they'll do their best to tear down some trees, branches and power lines during their brief, loud visit.   

Once we get through that, winds will pick up from the west and become gusty Friday afternoon and night. This time, the strongest winds would be along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains, Especially the southern Green Mountains. Another wind advisory is in effect for southern Vermont tonight through early Saturday.  

Temperatures will be dropping through the afternoon and evening, eventually freezing things up. Rain will change to snow, although there won't be much of it. It'll be less than an inch, except maybe a bit more in the mountains. 

Another Atmospheric River Menaces Pacific Northwest; Also, Flood Videos

Another photo of flooding in 
Washington. Renewed atmospheric
rivers this week will cause 
flooding to return. 

Another series of atmospheric rivers is smashing into the Pacific Northwest this week, raising worries about renewed flooding. 

The flooding won't be as bad as the catastrophic stuff we saw last week, but it's just another headache for all those people trying to recover from one of the worst disasters in Washington State history. 

Already, it's causing real problems. With the first wave of rain moving in today, local media is reporting mandatory evacuations today in parts of Auburn, Washington, and in other areas. Roads are closed. 

Initially, today, the storminess is much like last week. The rain is accompanied by very warm air. That means the rain will fall high up on the mountain slopes where it usually snows. That increases the flooding risk. 

The next in a series of storms will come into Washington toward the end of the day tomorrow, and this one looks windy as hell. A high wind watch is in effect for much of western Washington for wind gusts that could range between 55 to 65 mph.

Since the ground is so soggy, tree roots no longer have a firm hold into the soil. The wind will make it easy for trees to blow over. Officials are also worried about power outages.

This second storm will be the one that make rivers peak again. However, the Snoqualmie River near the town of Carnation looks like it will reach major flood stage again, but not quite as high as last week.  Other rivers will also approach major flood stage. 

Temperatures will also crash, too. The valley floors, in places like Seattle, Tacoma, Everett and Olympia will continue to rain. But in the mountain passes, it'll snow like hell. This is actually a return to normalcy in the Washington.

By midday Wednesday, the mountains above Puget Sound could have a foot or two of new snow. The changeover to snow in the high elevations will come too late to prevent runoff into the valleys below. 

After that, the next wave of the atmospheric river looks to arrive Thursday. This one will hit further south in Oregon, so the risk of flooding will rise there. 

VIDEOS

First, a great overview video of the flooding from KOMO. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Today Show Summary showing rescues, the interior of flooded homes and other dramatic footage. Click  on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Another aerial view of rescuers arriving at a swamped house in Duvall, Washington to take the occupants to safety.  Again, click on this link to view, or if you see image below click on that. 

 A big logjam formed against bridge abutments over the Snohomish River along a major highway. Also note how close the water is to overtopping the levee. Again, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

The atmospheric river extended all the way into western Montana, causing flooding and landslides. This is a video of a bridge collapsing in the Montana floods. Click on this link or if you see the image below, click on the image below. 

 

Washington State Flood Update: Record River Crests As Unrelenting Rain Finally Starts To Diminish

A mudslide closed part of Interstate 90 in Washington 
State, hitting some vehicles in the process. Record
flooding continue in Washington today. 

The Great Flood of 2025 is peaking in western Washington today after days of torrential rain from a series of atmospheric rivers have swamped vast areas of the states. 

This is one of those disasters that have so much going on that it's hard to keep track. A network of rivers flow out of the Cascades and Olympic mountains. Within that large river network, numerous areas in these hills got more than 10 inches of rain over the past five days. I saw one report of more than 16 inches.  

The area most under the gun is roughly the size of New England, excluding Maine. Major flooding is occurring or forecast on 17 rivers in the region. Some of those will reach record crests.

The flood in Washington also reminds of the big flood we had here in Vermont back in 2023. All those torrents coming down from those hills and mountains, the river valleys with their small towns and cities filling up with water, landslides obliterating parts of roads.

The only big difference is this is a winter, not summer flood. And I'd say more people are being affected than that horrible Green Mountain State disaster in July, 2023.

Up to 100,000 people in Washington have been evacuated in the Skagit River valley alone. It's a densely populated area about an hour north of Seattle. 

In the town of Mount Vernon, the Skagit River is forecast to rise two feet above the previous record high level. "This is a flood we haven't seen before.....The potential for catastrophe flooding is real," said Mount Vernon Mayor Peter Donovan, as reported by KUOW an NPR-affiliated station in Seattle. 

A flood wall was built around Mount Vernon in 2018. Residents are nervously watching to see whether that wall will be enough. 

There is no good time for a catastrophic flood, but one coming in the weeks before Christmas, especially people whose homes and businesses are destroyed by the high water. 

The good news so far is I haven't seen any reports of deaths, but I fear at least a few people have lost or will lose their lives as more information comes in from flooded areas. There have already been some close misses. 

Two people - one clinging to the roof of a vehicle, another in a tree - were rescued via helicopter in eastern King County, as seen on dramatic video posted on X

Video from Live Storms Media shows water from the Snohomish River overtopping levees and flowing into already flooded roads, homes and businesses. 

Another video by Jonathan Petramala shows residents and business owners of Sultan, Washington rapidly sandbagging and evacuating as water rose rapidly from a nearby river. 

Road travel in western Washington today is trying at best. Even part of Interstate 90 shut down due to a mudslide. Amtrak trains between Seattle and Vancouver are suspended due to flooding. 

Atmospheric rivers hit the Pacific Northwest every winter but this one is a doozy. It originated southeast of China and stretched 1,700 miles to Washington. Atmospheric moisture content over Washington broke December records.  

The atmospheric river is so strong it was able to trigger flooding and flood alerts all the way over into northern Idaho and extreme western Montana. Severe flooding was report in Lincoln County, Montana. 

Despite crossing several mountain ranges, the moisture plume from the atmospheric river is setting off a snowstorm in central Montana.

Remaining moisture from the atmospheric river will ride the jet stream southeastward in a long, narrow path from southwestern North Dakota all the way to southwestern Virginia. 

Back in Washington, the short-term forecast is pretty good  Rainfall is much lighter today. Only scattered showers are in the cards for Friday. Saturday will actually be fairly sunny, which is an infrequent occurrence in western Washington.

But the good news is temporary. Rain will restart Sunday and continue all week. It won't be as heavy as what they just saw, but the daily grind of rain will probably prolong the flooding. 

This is also your reminder that climate change has led to more intense rainfall.  We don't know - at least not yet - how much climate change had to do with the Pacific Northwest flood. But it is consistent with the effects of a warmer world. 

 

 

  

Southeast Asia Floods Kill Hundreds In Another Big Flood Megadisaster

Image of the flooding in Indonesia via Reuters. 

 Deadly floods have encompassed much of Southeast Asia recently, leading to at least 450 deaths, and widespread destruction. 

It's another big event as what is amounting to the 2025 The Year Of The Flood.

As CBC reports:

"Large parts of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand have been stricken by cyclone-fueled torrential rain for a week, with a rare tropical storm forming in the Malacca Straight.

Another 46 people were killed by a cyclone in the South Asian island nation of Sri Lanka, authorities said"

The Malacca straight is a narrow band of water between Malaysia and the Indonesian island of Sumatra. 

In Sumatra, 174 people had been confirmed dead as of Friday morning, and 79 others were reported missing. The rain has stopped there, but thousands of families are displaced, the CBC report said. 

In Thailand, 145 people have been reported dead and 3.5 million people have been affected by the flooding. 

In southern and eastern Sri Lanka, a separate tropical storm caused those 56 deaths, mostly in rain-triggered landslides. Twenty-five of the deaths were due to landslides in the mountainous tea growing region of central Sri Lanka, Al Jazeera reported. 

In Vietnam, at least 91 people died in flooding there, as lemonde.fr  reported. The bad weather began on November 16 and continued for more than a week. While some of the water has receded. more rain is heading in. Ominously, a new tropical depression has formed near Vietnam, and that threatens to bring new downpours.  

Southeast Asia is nearing the end of its annual monsoon season.  Before this storm, everything was soggy and wet, and rivers were running high from previous downpours and floods. 

Monsoon season can be destructive any year, but climate change is probably giving things a tragic boost.  With climate change, rainfall is often heavier than it otherwise would be had global temperatures not warmed.  

Videos

News images of flooding Thailand. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Next video is a news account of the flooding in Indonesia. Again, click on this link to view or if you see image below click on that. 

Hurricane Melissa Explodes In Caribbean; Is Dire Threat To Jamaica, Maybe Cuba

Forecast track and timing of Hurricane Melissa, which
is about to decimate the island of Jamaica. 

Jamaicans, and weather forecasters are waking up to a horror this morning. 

Hurricane Melissa is following the worst case scenario, having blown up from a tropical storm to a powerful hurricane packing 140 mph in a matter of less than 18 hours. 

Worse, the storm is still getting strong, still moving forward at a snails pace, and still locking in on Jamaica as a target.

Melissa is forecast to reach Category 5 intensity today, the strongest possible hurricane. It would be the third category 5 Atlantic hurricane this year, which is incredibly rare. Climate change doesn't seem to make hurricanes more frequent, but it does seem to make it more likely that some of them will reach intense Category 5 intensity. 

Fortunately, the other two Cat 5's of 2025, Erin and Humberto, did not hit land.

Our luck has run out with Melissa. 

As of this morning, Melissa was moving over water that is record hot, 88 or 89 degrees. This patch of water under Melissa is the warmest of anywhere in the Atlantic.  The hotter the water, the more fuel for a hurricane, and the stronger it will become. 

Whether it's still a category 5 or a "mere" category 4 when Melissa makes landfall in Jamaica, probably Tuesday morning, is besides the point. This is going to be a devastating, deadly blow to the island. 

It's already been raining for weeks in Jamaica.  The soil is saturated. There was flooding even before Melissa entered the picture. 

Hurricanes always dump incredible amounts of rain. You virtually always have inland flooding once they come ashore.  Most hurricanes come and go, with a forward speed of maybe 10 to 15 mph.

Melissa's forward speed was just 5 mph this morning. As a tropical storm and more recently a hurricane, it was just sitting over the Caribbean, dumping heavy rain on Haiti and Jamaica before it ever grew into the monster it is now. Melissa will only just begin to move faster over Jamaica, but it will be much too little, much too late. 

More than three feet of rain is expected on at least parts of the island, guaranteeing horrific landslides and catastrophic flooding. Jamaica is mountainous, so it's especially prone to flash flooding and heavy rains. That was the problem in western North Carolina last year with Hurricane Helene. The water just cataclysmically rushed down those slopes. Same will happen in Jamaica.

The wind will tear things apart for sure, but the flooding will be much worse.

How do you run away from flash flooding and mudslides when the wind is gusting well past 100 mph and debris is flying through the air like giant box cutters, slicing through everything?

I'm just sick about this. 

In the past, the United States would often swoop in with truly lifesaving aid when there's an extreme disaster like what is about to happen in Jamaica. But the Trump administration has turned its back on the rest of the world. So the suffering will be even worse due to the indifference of MAGA. We might send aid, but not the way we once did. 

Hurricane Melissa won't directly hit Haiti, but its torrential rains are blasting that impoverished nation on Hispaniola. This will be a nightmare for them too. We already have reports of three people killed by Melissa in Haiti and one in neighboring Dominican Republic.

We need to include Cuba in this mix. Once Melissa is done with Jamaica, it will move on to eastern Cuba. The storm might be slightly weaker than it will have been in Jamaica, but it still will be a powerhouse, with extreme flooding and seriously damaging winds in Cuba by late Tuesday and early Wednesday.

From there, Melissa will head northeastward, blasting through the Bahamas with more destruction before heading out into the open Atlantic Ocean. It might threaten Bermuda toward Friday. Then it should finally die out in the cold North Atlantic next weekend.  

Mexican Flood Another Disaster That Did Not Get Enough Attention

Destruction in Mexico after deadly flooding this month.

 A huge flood and a series of mudslides last week in Mexico killed at least 76 people and caused widespread damage across huge swaths of the country. 

At last report, more than three dozen people were still missing. 

The torrential rains came last week from the remains of Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Raymond, which sent moisture streaming across central and eastern Mexico. 

Reports Mexiconewsdaily.com:

"The government announced a relief plan of 10 billion pesos (US $543.2 million) to cover damages in Veracruz, Hidalgo, Puebla, Queretaro and San Luis Potosi, pledging rapid reconstruction along with a new cell phone alert for floods and storms."

The storms and flooding damaged 70,445 home. Of those, 43,578 were in Veracruz state. In some areas of Veracruz, two feet of rain fell within four days. 

In some places the devastation was catastrophic. The entire village of Chapula, population 400, was wiped off the map by a wall of water and mud. 

In one incident, a floating seafood restaurant in Tuxpan, in the state of Veracruz was swept free of its moorings along the raging Tuxpan River and and was launched into the Gulf of Mexico. 

In the Gulf, the restaurant broke into two parts, one of which traveled in the Gulf southward a total of about 350 miles. 

It's hard to say whether this had anything to do with climate change. It's consistent with a warming world. Rainfall can get more intense than they otherwise would be. So perhaps the rain wouldn't have been as intense had the world not warmed up so much. 

This was one of those disasters that were really huge, but didn't get much media attention. Maybe it's all too much to cover. Or, nobody is interested. Or the media outlets that should cover it don't want to. Not enough clicks on line? Too expensive to cover?  Or maybe we, me, haven't been paying enough attention.

In any event,  I've barely heard about it. There is some coverage from outlets like NBC, like you'll see below. 

Video:

NBC News report from when the confirmed death toll was 60. It gives you a sense of the breadth of this flooding. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

At Least 170 U.S. Hospitals At Risk Of Floods

Unicoi County Hospital in Erwin, Tennessee submerged
in floodwaters during Hurricane Helene last year.
Researchers say 170 U.S. hospitals are at risk
for flooding, some of them not in flood plains. 

A new study by KFF Health News has determined that 170 hospitals throughout the United States are vulnerable to flooding. 

The hospitals, totaling nearly 30,000 patient beds, face risks from significant and dangerous flooding, based on data from Fathom, a company considered a leader in flood simulation. 

Evacuating a hospital during a flood or other disaster is no easy feat. Picture trying to get critically ill people, hooked up to medical equipment out of a crumbling hospital in a hurry. So you can see why this is such a scary issue. 

None of the 170 hospitals in the list were in Vermont. For some reason here in the Green Mountain State, we tend to build hospitals on hills. 

According to KFF Health News:

"Much of this risk to hospitals is not captured by flood maps issues by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which have served as the nations de facto tool for flood estimation for half a century, despite being incomplete and sometimes decades out of date.

As FEMA maps have become divorced from the reality of a changing climate, private companies like Fathom have filled the gap with simulations of future floods. But many of their predictions are behind a paywall, leaving the public mostly reliant on free, significantly limited government maps."

Of the 170 hospitals described by KFF Health News as being at risk, one third are in places FEMA has not defined as flood hazard areas. 

The United States has already experienced tragedies and near misses from hospital flooding. 

During Hurricane Katrina in 2005, flooding at the New Orleans Memorial Medical Center left 45 people dead, including some patients. 

Last year, during Hurricane Helene, helicopters had to rescue dozens of people from the roof of Unicoi County Hospital in Erwin, Tennessee. Luckily, in that instance, nobody died.

The risk of flooded hospitals comes as the Trump administration slashed federal agencies like NOAA and FEMA that forecast and respond to extreme weather.

FEMA just responded with a quote they always use when asked about their function and the effects of cutbacks and fired employees. 

They just said criticism of FEMA is just "bureaucrats who presided over decades of inefficiency." It's their boilerplate now. 

As climate change keeps taking hold, storms will continue to become stronger and stronger, dumping more and more rain and causing bigger and bigger floods.

That's a particular concern in  Charleston, West Virginia, where a single storm could flood five of the city's six hospitals at once, along with many of the city's schools, churches and fire departments.

As it is, floods routinely crash down out of the mountains and hollows in West Virginia, so Charleston is vulnerable. Wheeling, West Virginia served as a for example earlier this year.  In June a flash flood in and around Wheeling killed at least six people. 

Of course, closing a hospital in a flood plain and building a new one elsewhere is extremely expensive. 

You can try flood proofing a hospital, which is also expensive, but maybe doable.

As KFF Health News reports, an example is the former Coney Island Hospital in New York. It was badly flooded in Superstorm Sandy in 2012. 

The hospital reinvented itself as the Ruth Bader Ginsburg hospital, after a $923 million reconstruction project that included a four-foot flood wall and patient areas in elevated areas above the first floor. 

The hospital hasn't really been tested yet in a flood though. 

There's MUCH more from KFF Health News regarding these potentially unsafe hospitals. Click here to read more.  

Nor'easter Could Worsen North Carolina House Collapses As Coastal Flood Alerts Go Up Along East Coast

Clouds near and off the southeast U.S. coast, 
especially near Florida, are the beginning stages of
a big nor'easter that will cause destructive
coastal flooding and storm surges up 
and down the East Coast 

The East Coast is bracing for an early season nor'easter that threatens coastal flooding up and down the Eastern Seaboard. 

The storm is widely forecast  to create coastal flooding and battering waves from Florida to New England. 

Seasonal king tides that make those tides higher than most other times of the year are already causing some nuisance flooding along the coast. 

That never used to happen during king tides, but the sea level is up now due to climate change, so now many coastal areas endure "sunny day" flooding.

Now, this big nor'easter is looming. It will add a ton of water to those king tides, ensuring that much of the shoreline in the East will not look the same next week as it does now. 

 The only bright side is the peak of the king tides will be beginning to pass by the time the storm gets its act together. 

The storm has all the ingredients to cause havoc. It will be slow moving and strong. It will create intense east winds that will shove water into the bays and estuaries up and down the East Coast. That has the potential to cause major tidal flooding. 

The powerful winds will stir up huge waves that will smack into shorelines. They'll make the swells generated by offshore hurricanes this summer and fall look like child's play. 

In some places, the storm surges could almost rival the destruction from Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

The slow movement of the storm will ensure the battering waves will hit during multiple high tide cycles, causing serious beach erosion. 

Forecasters expect coastal roads going under water, severe erosion of sand dunes, structural damage and evacuation. 

Perhaps the most threatened spot is North Carolina, where offshore hurricanes last week caused a total of nine homes to topple into the water.

After those storms, the Outer Banks of North Carolina are especially vulnerable to new damage. Local residents expect more homes to fall into the water. 

The storms last week have already pushed back the coastline in North Carolina a lot, considering it was just one event.  

Per WRAL:

"Researchers with RCOAST, a coastal resilience startup based in North Carolina, mapped the area...using 3D scanners and drones. Preliminary analysis found the average shoreline retreat was 68 feet, with some stretches losing up to 141 feet of beach. 3D mapping shows over wash from the storms pushed sand as far as 298 feet inland"

That means homes that were once safe from storm tides no longer are.  

The nine houses that have already falle  into the water were built between 1973 and 1998 had a combined assessed value of more than $5 million.  When they were built, they were behind the sand dunes and not prone to battering waves. But repeated storms shifted the barrier islands, aided by rising sea levels. 

The nor'easter is forecast to bring several inches of rain to many areas near the East Coast, and that rain will be driven by wind gusts exceeding 60 mph and 50 mph just inland.  But the main damage will be to the shorelines. 

Though this will not be a tropical storm, it will have some characteristics of one. That fact could enhance rainfall and potentially cause even stronger winds. 

The effects of this storm start today along the east coast of Florida and other parts of the Southeast. The storm should intensify as it slowly crawls north. The worst of the storm in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will likely hit on Sunday and Monday .

Storms such as this nor'easter have more destructive power than similar storms years ago because sea levels are higher due to climate change. Shorelines south of New England are quite flat, so a little big of sea level rise can have effects surprisingly far inland. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Unlike on the coastline, the storm will cause more good and harm in the Green Mountain State, but it's still unclear to what extent it will affect us. 

The storm will want to head north toward us, at least for awhile. But yet another strong, dry, high pressure system over Quebec will block it.  The storm will only get so far north, then get deflected back south and east.

That's why we're in this drought. The weather pattern since early August has featured these arid high pressure areas that block storms and moisture from reaching us. 

The early consensus is the storm will have enough oomph to spread rain into at least southern Vermont. How much is the question, but early guesses are the rain could end up being beneficial. Not nearly enough to end the drought, but enough to take a tiny step toward easing it. 

If we get lucky, far southern Vermont could see more than an inch of rain between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday morning. 

The further north you get the less rain you'll see. The Quebec high pressure will be feeding dry air into northern Vermont as the nor'easter tried to send moisture north. The end result could be much of the rain evaporating before it hits the ground. 

Still, for now, up to a quarter inch of rain could fall. That's not much, but we'll take anything we can get.

I'll emphasize these are all educated guesses for now. The computer models are all over the place with how much the nor'easter will affect northern New England. 

The least likely scenario is that we get nailed with heavy rain. Don't get your hopes up for that one. It's possible the north will get no rain, too.

Note that there's will be a huge difference in air pressure between the strong high in Quebec and the nor'easter to our south. 

That could set up the southern Green Mountains for some strong gusty winds toward Sunday and Monday. Nor'easters can cause strong downslope winds on the western slopes of the mountains. That could be the case with this storm Sunday night and Monday. 

The strong winds are expected to avoid the northern Green Mountains.