Trump Says Cuba Doesn't Have Hurricanes. Cubans Beg To Differ

Damage in Cuba last October from Hurricane Melissa.
Donald Trump's assertion that Cuba gets no hurricanes 
appears to be very untrue

 It seems like Donald Trump loves his conquests, or threatened ones. I've lost track of the nations he says he wants to take over, but one of his latest targets appears to be Cuba.  

Since this isn't so much a geopolitical blog, we'll get into another excuse to pick on our Orange One

As the Miami Herald reports:

"Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that Cuba would be ideal for the U.S. to take over because of pleasant weather and it is not prone to hurricanes."

The cockwomble's exact quote was:

"I think Cuba, in its own way, tourism and everything else, it's a beautiful island great weather. They're not in hurricane zone, which is nice for a change, you know? They won't be asking us for money of hurricanes every week."

The alleged lack of Cuban hurricanes might come as news for those living on the island.  

We have to harken all the way back to October, 2025, yes, a whole five months ago to find an example of Cuba being hit by a hurricane 

That was Hurricane Melissa. After it finished up in Jamaica, where it was tied for the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin, Melissa roared on through Cuba.

It wasn't as strong as in Jamaica, but it was strong enough, with part of eastern Cuba seeing sustained was of 115 mph with a gust to 136 mph. Melissa wrecked an electrical grid in eastern Cuba that had already been trashed by previous hurricanes and not yet fully repaired

Melissa was definitely not a one-off

Cuba is historically one of the hardest hit countries in the Western Hemisphere during hurricane season.

Josh Morgerman, a veteran hurricane chaser and one of the world's leading hurricane experts, said on Facebook that he's been getting a LOT of questions about how many hurricanes hit Cuba. He didn't say why everybody's asking, but thanks to the Miami Herald and other media outlet, we now know.

Anyway, Morgerman has the stats:

"Just since 2000 the island nation has had 16 hurricanes, include a rare Category5 (Irma, 2017) and five Cat 4s. In Gustave, 2008, Cuba measured a sustained 1-minute wind of 135 knots (155 mph) gusting to a whopping 184 knots (212 mph) - one of the highest official wind readings ever recorded in a hurricane."

Our Orange Whopper has said he believes  he'll "have the honor of taking Cuba" soon. Oh, great. 

If he does somehow make Cuba part of the United States - good luck with that - Trump is probably right that Cubans "won't be asking for money for hurricanes every week."  

Trump still seems intent on reducing money for FEMA are giving up on it entirely. Which raises the possibility that nobody in the actually now-existing United States would receive disaster relief. 

Let's just make things more dystopian, shall we?

  

Long, Hard Recovery Begins In Jamaica As Hurricane Melissa Speeds Away To North Atlantic

Photo of extreme winds from Hurricane Melissa in
Jamaica. The photographer, Josh Morgerman said
this was actually before the peak of the winds. 

The wrath of Hurricane Melissa will soon end as the storm races northeastward away from the Bahamas, but the storm and its aftermath has changed lives forever. 

As of this morning, the death toll from Hurricane Melissa rose past 30 as of this morning, but we still do not have a full accounting of the toll in Jamaica, the hardest hit island in the Caribbean. 

Communications there are still spotty, and many roads are blocked. Which means reaching the hardest hit areas is difficult to say the least. 

Most of the reported deaths so far are in Haiti. Per USA Today:

"Though Melissa did not directly hit Haiti, the Caribbeans' most populous nation, the storm battered the island with days of rain. On Wednesday, authorities reported at least 25 deaths, largely due to floods in Petit-Goave, a coastal town about 40 miles west of the capital, where a river burst its banks."

Several people are still missing in Haiti, and thousands of homes are damaged and destroyed.

That's still nothing compared to scope of the destruction in parts of Jamaica. The search and recovery of victims in Jamaica really hasn't started in earnest yet. 

Weather and climate journalist Jonathan Petramala, in a YouTube video posted this morning, said he and many others had been trying for more than 12 hours to reach the hardest hit coastline of Jamaica. The roads to the southwest coast are an impenetrable mass of mud, twisted trees, water and debris. 

That's bad news, because survivors on the southwest coast are most in need of help.  In the Jamaican town Petramala was reporting from, survivors said they had no drinking water and no food amid the now roofless houses and debris-clogged landscape. Dead goats, drowned in the storm, littered the neighborhood

The storm itself had to be terrifying. Josh Morgerman, a hurricane expert who has now experienced the eyes 83 hurricanes, described Melissa as easily among the scariest he's experienced. On Facebook, he wrote about the scene just before the hurricane reached peak intensity.

"Bone-rattling gusts were making roofs explode into clouds of lethal confetti. The grand palm tree out front was starting to bend obscenely - in a way I found unnatural."

Then the peak of the storm hit. Morgerman described it this way:

"The hurricane's inner eyewall was a screaming white void. All I could see through the cracks in the shutters was the color white - accompanied by a constant, ear-splitting scream that actually caused pain. ....The scream occasionally got higher and angrier and those extra-screechy screams made my eardrums pulse. Meanwhile, water was forcing in through every crack - under the floor and between the window slats."

Drone video taken after skies cleared made it look like a 30 mile wide EF-4 tornado had smashed through western Jamaica. 

Jamaicans are doing what they can to start recovering from then catastrophe. The capital, Kingston, was not all that badly damaged by Melissa, so the seat of government is able to coordinate relief and logistics. 

Video from Jamaica showed people already starting to work on replacing roofs on homes. Bulldozers were pushing mud off roads. People with chainsaws and machetes were hacking their way through walls of fallen trees that were blocking roads. 

At least eight Jamaican hospitals had power restored as of today. Kingston's airport reopened today, allowing planes loaded with aid to land.   Ten commercial flights are also scheduled, so tourists can leave the island.

The airport in hard-hit Montego Bay also opened to relief flights today, but commercial flights are still a no-go, so tourists are still stranded there. 

All this is a start, but it might take years for Jamaica to fully recover. And I'm not even really including the damage Melissa caused in Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas. 

MELISSA'S ENDGAME

Hurricane Melissa is persistent as hell. 

Top winds had dropped to 90 mph as it was interacting with islands in the Bahamas. But despite strong upper level winds that tend to rip hurricanes apart, Melissa managed to strengthen its winds to 105 mph by late this morning. 

Melissa might even get a little stronger in the next few hours. But colder ocean water temperatures and howling upper level winds will make the storm lose its tropical characteristics as it passes by Bermuda tonight. 

It'll still be a hurricane force storm when it clips the southeast corner of Newfoundland Friday night or Saturday as it races northeastward over the Atlantic.

VIDEO

YouTube video, much of it taken from drone, of the devastation in Haiti from Hurricane Melissa. Click on this link to view. Or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

Melissa Blasting Cuba, Jamaica Wakes Up To Devastation, And Some Science Behind The Storm

Image from the Weather Channel showing extreme
flooding in Jamaica from Hurricane Melissa.

Hurricane Melissa continued its rampage overnight, smashing through eastern Cuba with winds as high as 120 mph. 

That's better than the 185 mph that parts of Jamaica endured at landfall, but the wind and the incredible flooding just add to the pile of damages in the Caribbean from this incredible storm. 

The wind and rain is finally calming down in Jamaica, so they can start assessing where they stand after their "Storm of the Century."

Calling it that is actually a bit of an understatement. Hurricane Melissa was one of only six storms known in the Atlantic with winds of at least 185 mph. Only three known Atlantic storms - a 1935 hurricane in Florida, Hurricane Dorian in 2019 and Melissa had winds that strong at landfall. 

The National Hurricane Center will eventually review data from Hurricane Melissa to determine whether this stat is accurate. 

Some data suggests that Melissa's winds might have been even stronger, beating the all time record for high winds, which was set in 1980 during Hurricane Allen in the Gulf of Mexico. Those winds were 190 mph. 

As of this morning, we have no idea what the Jamaican death toll is. We only have reports from when the storm was ramping up - three dead.  We don't know what happened when the core of the storm buzz sawed through. 

I'm hoping Jamaica got really lucky in that respect. I imagine we'll learn more later today. 

The western half of Jamaica is especially devastated from the tornado-like winds and massive amounts of water that fell from the sky. Eastern Jamaica seems to be doing better. Video from the capitol, Kingston, shows that city to be largely intact. 

Given that so much of western Jamaica is in ruins, the island nation will need lots of help. Their government has set up a web site that allows people to report problems, the public to donate, and prioritize needs. 

Even the United States, where President Donald Trump does not like to help others, might step in. Trump said, "On a humanitarian basis, we have to. So we're watching it closely and we're prepared to move."

I'm sure there will be more details to come on Jamaican relief efforts. But be forewarned: There will also be a LOT of scammers pretending to be trying to help Jamaica. They'll just steal money that was donated. 

Do some research before donating, and give to reputable charities. 

Melissa's life is fortunately coming to an end soon. It's got one more big stop, in the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. It'll swipe past Bermuda Friday, and then it Melissa will die over the North Atlantic. 

Climate change is being accurate blamed for helping fuel Melissa. But it's more complicated than just climate change. 

True, the Caribbean water that Melissa passed over was the warmest on record, in part due to climate change. 

But also, unlike most years, there were no hurricanes in the Caribbean this year until Melissa. Hurricanes tend to bring cool water up from the depths. So a late season hurricane in the Caribbean would have normally encountered somewhat cooler water than Melissa did. 

If that were the case, Melissa wouldn't have gotten so strong. 

Melissa also moved forward very slowly, almost stalling at times, giving it more time to strengthen. 

More often that not, a slow moving storm like Melissa will eventually choke itself off from the warm water feeding it. A hurricane would draw cooler water to the surface, diminishing its potential power.  

This time, the Caribbean waters were unusually hot to a great depth beneath the surface. Melissa pulled water up from the deep. But that water was warm, too, so the storm kept on strengthening. 

Overall, the research group Climate Central said the conditions that turned Hurricane Melissa into such a monster were made up to 700 times more likely due to human caused climate change.  

One tiny bit of good news: As we approach the end of hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center does not see any potential new tropical storms or hurricanes for at least the next week, probably more. Maybe there won't even be any more, we hope. 

Hurricane Melissa Slams Jamaica, Now Waiting To Learn The Toll. Likely Will Be Awful

 Hurricane Melissa kept strengthening right until landfall. 

Hurricane hunter planes measuring the strength of
Hurricane Melissa had this view of the storm
inside the eye yesterday 

Sustained winds blew at 185 mph at landfall, something very few people in the world have had the trauma of experiencing.

 In the western hemisphere, perhaps only a couple of hurricanes have made landfall with winds that strong. 

Melissa came ashore midday near New Hope, about 75 miles west of the Kingston, the Capitol of Jamaica. 

It had to be terrifying. Safe here on a bright, blue sky gorgeous late fall day here in Vermont, my heart rate is up just thinking about what those Jamaicans are going through today. 

Starlink, Elon Musk's satellite internet service, will be free for now in Jamaica and the Bahamas so people can get the word out, and tell loved ones who lived, who died. 

Still, won't get a lot of details on death toll, the extent of damage, and recovery right away. In western Jamaica, it's too dangerous to go outside and look.  People will also be just trying to survive. Most won't have time to chat with reporters or post updates online. 

Where Melissa hit square on in southwest Jamaica, the storm was the equivalent of a high end EF-3 or EF-4 tornado. Except tornadoes last only a few minutes and are usually no more than a mile wide  This "tornado" probably lasted more than an hour at least, and was probably 20 to 30 miles wide. 

Imagine your house getting hit by a tornado with 185 mph winds. There wouldn't be all that much left. Now imagine your house getting hit by a dozen or more of such tornadoes, one after another. 

How do you even survive such a thing?

Houses surely disintegrated in the midst of Melissa.   I don't know how many people made it to a hopefully safe shelter and how many stayed in their vulnerable homes.

Most people would be blown off their feet in winds and knocked to the ground in winds of 80 mph.  I don't know for sure if this is accurate, but Google AI says a 180 mph wind is enough launch a person into the air. 

Then those people would become like the rest of the debris flying through the air, trees, branches, planks, sheet metal, siding, roofs. The chances of surviving outdoors in that are pretty much zero. 

The National Hurricane Center was advising people near the eye of Hurricane Melissa to hide under mattresses in an interior room and wear a helmet.  "The best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you and the outside," the NHC said. 

Satellite view of Hurricane Melissa late this
afternoon shows the eye has filled in with
clouds as the mountains of Jamaica 
begin to weaken the still
formidable storm. 

Hurricane Melissa had been forecast for a couple days to make landfall in southwestern Jamaica. I'm hoping everyone who could fled to eastern Jamaica. 

The eastern part of the island is having an incredibly tough go at it too. But at least the winds in the east are probably not strong enough to destroy all buildings. Sturdy ones should hold up.   

Images that are coming out of Jamaica are showing catastrophic flooding, with rapidly flowing water in some

As of 5 p.m., Hurricane Melissa was still centered over western Jamaica, heading northeast with top winds of 145 mph.  The mountainous terrain is starting to damage the hurricane, thank gawd. That's down to an intense category 4 hurricane, no longer, a category 5. 

RECORD SETTING

It's unusual for a hurricane to keep on strengthen right up until landfall, but Melissa did. The most recent, dramatic example of a hurricane doing this that I can think of was Category 5 Hurricane Michael, which hit Florida in 2018. 

It looks like Hurricane Melissa probably tied the record for the Atlantic basin for the highest winds and lowest central air pressure at landfall. The air pressure was 892 millibars in the eye, which is an incredibly intense hurricane. 

The reason I say "probably" is because scientists will need to study data after the fact to determine whether the sort of off the cuff measurements taken today are accurate.

WHAT'S NEXT

Hurricane Melissa is still headed toward eastern Cuba, where it will hit tonight with winds as high as 145 mph.  Obviously incredibly nasty flooding is going to happen there, too. 

The hurricane will be weakening, and increasing its forward speed tomorrow as it blasts the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. But it will still be a dangerous storm. 

Hurricane Melissa is still throwing lots of moisture at Hispaniola, so Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic should continue to experience catastrophic flooding tonight. 

The weakening hurricane should sideswipe Bermuda early Friday. As Melissa finally dies over the North Atlantic Friday, it will send some moisture into an otherwise unrelated storm over the Northeast, which will probably make rainfall heavier than it otherwise would be. .

CLIMATE CHANGE STRIKES AGAIN

Hurricane Melissa is the latest in a remarkable string of Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic in recent years. Melissa was the third such hurricane this year. The other two missed land, but our luck ran out with Melissa. 

This hurricane meandered over record warm Caribbean water for days before striking Jamaica, allowing it to strengthen as it did. I mentioned this yesterday, but it's worth repeating. Expect plenty more Melissas in the future. 

Per CNN:

"Hurricane Melissa's intensification into the strongest storm on Earth so far this year, and one of the strongest storms on record in the Atlantic Ocean, was field buy unusually hot ocean temperatures in the Caribbean. 

The storms underwent two periods of rapid intensification, with its maximum sustained winds first jumping from 70 mph on Saturday morning to 140 mph just 24 hours later. Then, from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon its peak winds spiked again, going from 140 to mph to 175 mph.

Such bouts of rapid intensification are becoming more frequent as the climate warms. Hurricane Melissa is only the latest in a sting of intense Atlantic hurricanes this year to undergo such extreme rapid strengthening. 

According to the climate science research group Climate Central, the ocean temperatures in the vicinity of Hurricane Melissa's path were about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit above average for this time of year. 

The group calculated that along the entire path of the storm so far, the unusually hot sea surface temperatures were at least 500 to 800 times more likely due to global warming."

 

Grim Day In Caribbean As Extreme Hurricane Melissa Nears Jamaica Landfall

Close up satellite view of Hurricane Melissa's eye
nearing southwestern Jamaica at dawn this morning. 

 UPDATE 9 a.m.

It's even worse now.

A recent update just in has maximum winds up to 180 mph, and central pressure down to 896 millibars.

This now tentatively makes this the fifth or sixth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic on record.

Landfall will be within just a few hours 

I'm dreading the news later today from Jamaica.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Hurricane Melissa sank to ridiculous extremes overnight, with winds staying at 175 mph on its approach to Jamaica.  

That the storm has maintained that incredible intensity since at least early yesterday afternoon is really something to dreadfully behold.

 The central pressure this morning in the eye of Hurricane Melissa was 901 millibars, making it the seventh strongest hurricane on record anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean. 

The updates are now coming so fast and furiously now that it's hard to keep up. But we'll give you a good idea and summary of what's going on. 

THIS MORNING'S SITUATION

Winds of tropical storm strength were lashing Jamaica at dawn. Those will quickly go to hurricane force by mid to late morning ahead of an expected landfall early this afternoon.

It's going to be a brutal day in Jamaica to say the least. 

Winds of 175 mph at landfall would flatten pretty much everything. There's a chance Melissa could "weaken" slightly before landfall, but as a practical matter, it won't make a difference.  Winds of, say 165 mph would have pretty much the same effect as winds 10 mph higher.  

To give you an idea how bad it is in there, hurricane hunter planes reportedly detected a gust to 241 mph just 700 feet off the surface offshore of Jamaica last night. 

Once Melissa makes landfall, the effects of hills and mountains can make the hurricane winds locally gust to 1.5 times the overall wind speed. Meaning some pockets in the Jamaican mountains could see gusts to 250 mph. We'll never know for sure, as there are few wind gauges to measure and probably none of those gauges would survive such winds.  

A wider visible satellite image of extreme 
Hurricane Melissa shortly after dawn today. 

The only good news is the area of hurricane force winds only extend out 30 miles or so from the eye. That means eastern Jamaica will escape the worst of the winds, but not the worst of the flooding. The water and landslides will be catastrophic island-wide.

Melissa is still moving pretty slowly, with a forward speed of just 5 mph. Most hurricanes, on average move at 10 to 15 mph. 

The slow movement means the extreme rains from Melissa will linger over Jamaica, and neighboring Haiti and Dominican Republic, longer than usual for a hurricane. That would make the terrible flooding with the hurricane even worse.  

I've been watching live cams from Jamaica, at least until the power goes out there. One of them shows the Flat Bridge over the Rio Cobre River in Spanish Town, Jamaica. As of around dawn, the river was a torrent, very high, muddy, full of debris. This was before the intense part of Hurricane Melissa arrived.

Imagine how bad the flooding will be after another one to three feet of rain crashes down on Jamaica today. 

The advice to Jamaicans from the U.S. National Hurricane Center is still dire:

"Remain sheltered! Catastrophic flash flooding, landslides and destructive winds will continue through today, causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communications outages, and isolated communities. Total structural failure is possible near the path of Melissa's center. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected through the day. Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss of of life."

On social media, hotel guests reported they are on lockdown. They've been advised to shove mattresses against the windows and huddle behind closed doors in the bathroom during the worst of the storm. 

The social media posts from Jamaica are already frightening. Virtuallywithdee on Threads, has been live posting her experiences with the storm. At 6:15 a.m. she posted:

"The updates are coming faster because I honestly can't believe what I'm seeing. The rain is pouring like someone's throwing buckets of water nonstop - the downpour is wild. Electricity is flickering in and out, and the mobile service is getting spotty. The wind is giving me chills... and she still hasn't even arrived yet."

HORRIBLE DAY AHEAD

Media reports and social media will probably go dark later this morning and stay that way for quite a while after as electricity and cell service collapses in the hardest hit areas. 

I'm worried sick about the fate of Jamaicans. CNN tells us the International Federation of the Red Cross says it expects 1.5 million people - more than half of Jamaica's population - to be directly affected by Hurricane Melissa. 

The worst effects will be across western Jamaica.  The Capitol, Kingston is in the eastern third of the island and expects peak wind gusts of 70 to 85 mph with up to 16 inches of rain. As of 7 a.m. wind was already gusting to 59 mph in Kingston. 

Montego Bay, in northwest Jamaica, should expect peak winds gusts of 100 to 140 mph and up to 20 inches of rain. Scary, indeed.

CUBA 

The worst conditions in eastern Cuba should hit later today and through tonight. 

In Santiago de Cuba, peak wind gusts are forecast to be in the 100 to 120 mph range, with about a foot of rain. Some nearby hillsides could see two feet of rain. 

Heavy rain is already falling in Cuba and that should get worse through the day. 

HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

Hurricane Melissa is passing to the west of these two nations, but it's still having a catastrophic effect there, especially in Haiti. Extreme flash floods and landslides are likely there this week. Tropical storm force winds will also hit Haiti. 

Several deaths have already been reported in Haiti due to flooding and landslides. 

Hurricane Melissa is still forecast to smash through the southeastern Bahamas tomorrow and Thursday before heading into the open Atlantic. It could lash Bermuda with strong winds early Friday before it races into the cold northern Atlantic Ocean where it will finally die over the weekend.  

Hurricane Melissa Category 5 This Morning, Jamaica Is In BIG Trouble

Satellite view of Hurricane Melissa this morning
The pinpoint eye is a sure sign of an incredibly'
intense hurricane that will hit Jamaica.

 Hurricane Melissa was upgraded to Category 5 this morning, with top winds of 160 mph had its sights on Jamaica as it crawls across the superheated waters of the Caribbean Sea. 

Those very warm waters are fueling Melissa's strength and the hurricane's strength won't change all that much before the eye reaches Jamaica Tuesday morning. 

The advice from the National Hurricane Center to Jamaicans was harsh:

"Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely today through Tuesday. 

Destructive winds, especially in the mountains, will begin this evening, leading to extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast through Tuesday."

This will be the strongest, worst hurricane on record for Jamaica. Despite its hurricane-prone location in the western Caribbean, Jamaica has never been hit by a Category 4 or 5 hurricane, though several hurricanes have affected the island. 

The worst hurricane in Jamaica until now was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. That high end Category 3 storm killed 45 people and caused $700 million in damage. 

This hurricane is the third this year to achieve Category 5 in the Atlantic this year. Only 2005 had more such monsters. 

Hurricane Melissa might or might not be Category 5 when it makes landfall in Jamaica. Intense hurricanes usually re-adjust the circle of intense thunderstorms and winds around the eye, and those readjustments can sometimes briefly and slightly weaken a hurricane.

So Melissa could end up being a Category 4 by the time it reaches Jamaica. If that happens, top winds would be 130 to 156 mph, not the 160 mph Melissa carried this morning.  But if Melissa weakens ever so slightly, it won't matter. 

As the National Hurricane Center noted this morning: "Both categories can produce catastrophic wind damage. In addition, winds in the mountains of Jamaica are likely to be higher than the winds at sea level, and are likely to add to the seriousness of the situation."

Tropical storm conditions are hitting Jamaica already. Webcams this morning showed gusty winds and rough surf in Kingston's harbor and in other areas.

They've already had bursts of torrential rain, and that will continue with increasing intensity well into tomorrow.  Flooding is already ongoing, and the landslides and floods will become catastrophic. 

As I noted yesterday, I don't know what will happen to people who are in their safe space, only for a landslide to destroy it. How will they move to another safe place in winds of more than 100 mph with debris flying through the air. 

The worst winds will come within a 30 to 50 mile radius on Jamaica, which is roughly 150 miles wide and 50 miles long.  It looks like the worst effects of Melissa will hit the western and maybe central parts of the island.

So parts of Jamaica will thankfully miss the worst of the winds, at least in low elevations,  but all of Jamaica will suffer through the floods. Up to three and a half feet of rain is likely in some parts of Jamaica. 

The Jamaican coastline, at least parts of it, can expect a storm surge of nine to 13 feet. That's potentially high enough to flood the nation's main airport in the capitol, Kingston. 

AFTER JAMAICA

Part of the destructive force of Hurricane Melissa is the fact that it is moving forward so slowly. That would prolong the destructive force of the rain and winds.

Once Hurricane Melissa gets past Jamaica, it will slowly start to weaken, and pick up forward speed. But it will still be a major hurricane by the time it reaches eastern Cuba early Wednesday, with expected winds of 120 mph.  Melissa will then move on into the southeastern Bahamas later Wednesday or early Thursday. 

By Friday, Melissa will be racing northeastward near Bermuda, then it will finally die in the North Atlantic. 

While Melissa is far out in the Atlantic Ocean,  an unrelated nor'easter will be developing along the East Coast. That nor'easter might siphon deep moisture from Hurricane Melissa and make the rain especially heavy along parts of the East Coast.

It's unclear if that for sure will happen, and if so, where. Up here in Vermont, the nor'easter will very likely bring us some badly needed rain, but so far it looks like the really heavy rain might avoid the Green Mountain State.

Meanwhile, back in the Caribbean, Haiti and the Dominican Republic won't be directly hit by Hurricane Melissa. But it's close enough to have dumped a lot of rain on those countries and will continue to do so. 

Horrific flooding will continue there for the next couple days.  There have already been at least three deaths in Haiti because of the heavy rain and flooding. 

Hurricane Melissa Explodes In Caribbean; Is Dire Threat To Jamaica, Maybe Cuba

Forecast track and timing of Hurricane Melissa, which
is about to decimate the island of Jamaica. 

Jamaicans, and weather forecasters are waking up to a horror this morning. 

Hurricane Melissa is following the worst case scenario, having blown up from a tropical storm to a powerful hurricane packing 140 mph in a matter of less than 18 hours. 

Worse, the storm is still getting strong, still moving forward at a snails pace, and still locking in on Jamaica as a target.

Melissa is forecast to reach Category 5 intensity today, the strongest possible hurricane. It would be the third category 5 Atlantic hurricane this year, which is incredibly rare. Climate change doesn't seem to make hurricanes more frequent, but it does seem to make it more likely that some of them will reach intense Category 5 intensity. 

Fortunately, the other two Cat 5's of 2025, Erin and Humberto, did not hit land.

Our luck has run out with Melissa. 

As of this morning, Melissa was moving over water that is record hot, 88 or 89 degrees. This patch of water under Melissa is the warmest of anywhere in the Atlantic.  The hotter the water, the more fuel for a hurricane, and the stronger it will become. 

Whether it's still a category 5 or a "mere" category 4 when Melissa makes landfall in Jamaica, probably Tuesday morning, is besides the point. This is going to be a devastating, deadly blow to the island. 

It's already been raining for weeks in Jamaica.  The soil is saturated. There was flooding even before Melissa entered the picture. 

Hurricanes always dump incredible amounts of rain. You virtually always have inland flooding once they come ashore.  Most hurricanes come and go, with a forward speed of maybe 10 to 15 mph.

Melissa's forward speed was just 5 mph this morning. As a tropical storm and more recently a hurricane, it was just sitting over the Caribbean, dumping heavy rain on Haiti and Jamaica before it ever grew into the monster it is now. Melissa will only just begin to move faster over Jamaica, but it will be much too little, much too late. 

More than three feet of rain is expected on at least parts of the island, guaranteeing horrific landslides and catastrophic flooding. Jamaica is mountainous, so it's especially prone to flash flooding and heavy rains. That was the problem in western North Carolina last year with Hurricane Helene. The water just cataclysmically rushed down those slopes. Same will happen in Jamaica.

The wind will tear things apart for sure, but the flooding will be much worse.

How do you run away from flash flooding and mudslides when the wind is gusting well past 100 mph and debris is flying through the air like giant box cutters, slicing through everything?

I'm just sick about this. 

In the past, the United States would often swoop in with truly lifesaving aid when there's an extreme disaster like what is about to happen in Jamaica. But the Trump administration has turned its back on the rest of the world. So the suffering will be even worse due to the indifference of MAGA. We might send aid, but not the way we once did. 

Hurricane Melissa won't directly hit Haiti, but its torrential rains are blasting that impoverished nation on Hispaniola. This will be a nightmare for them too. We already have reports of three people killed by Melissa in Haiti and one in neighboring Dominican Republic.

We need to include Cuba in this mix. Once Melissa is done with Jamaica, it will move on to eastern Cuba. The storm might be slightly weaker than it will have been in Jamaica, but it still will be a powerhouse, with extreme flooding and seriously damaging winds in Cuba by late Tuesday and early Wednesday.

From there, Melissa will head northeastward, blasting through the Bahamas with more destruction before heading out into the open Atlantic Ocean. It might threaten Bermuda toward Friday. Then it should finally die out in the cold North Atlantic next weekend.  

Resilient Hurricane Rafael Continues To Surprise Forecasters, But No Further Threat To People

Hurricane Rafael stayed surprisingly strong over
the Gulf of Mexico yesterday and last night,
as you can tell by this visible satellite image of 
the storm taken at around sunset Thursday. 

 Contradicting all forecasts, Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico continued to power up yesterday and at least part of last night, with highest sustained winds of 120 mph. 

That's the most powerful Rafael has been since it first ramped up several days ago. 

A weakening trend should have started by now, given dry air over the Gulf and what had been expected to be increasing upper level winds that would want to tear a hurricane apart  But like so many hurricanes this year, Rafael is over-performing.

The upper level winds haven't materialized quite yet, and the water Rafael is moving over is quite warm, so the storm has enough nourishment to preserve its strength for now. 

This is only the third time on record that a hurricane of at least Category 2 strength or more has been in the Gulf of Mexico during November. 

Unlike other powerful hurricanes that emerged from the Gulf of Mexico this year - Beryl, Debby, Helene and Milton - Hurricane Rafael doesn't look like it will cause a lot more damage in the United States, if any. 

Moisture streaming north from Rafael did help cause a rather destructive flood in parts of Georgia and South Carolina this week. Up to 15 inches of rain fell on central South Carolina, prompting extensive flooding, especially in and around Orangeburg. 

Those upper level winds and dry air should finally team up starting tonight to begin slowly dismantling Hurricane Rafael. It will move westward through the central Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days, then sort of start meandering offshore as it gradually fades. 

It might never come ashore anywhere again. Still, since this hurricane - and several others this year - have been so surprising, we can't take our eye off Rafael, just in case.

Most of the havoc created by Rafael occurred when it past over the western side of Cuba Wednesday. It caused the kind of flooding and building damage you'd expect from a Category 3 hurricane.

Worse, as you might have seen in the news, Cuba's power grid is unstable, to put it mildly. They had two nationwide power failures this autumn already. Rafael caused a third collapse of the nation's power grid, putting the entire island in darkness. That includes the central and eastern part of Cuba, which suffered no direct effects from Rafael.

The Washington Post tells us the power is back on in eastern Cuba, but was still out at last report in the west, including in the Capital Havana. 

Up on the U.S. Gulf Coast, the only hazards expected from Rafael so far are dangerous rip tides and possibly some minor coastal flooding. 

Hurricane Rafael Turns Out To Be Another Over-Performer, Indirect Effects Flooding Georgia

Visible satellite view of Hurricane Rafael bearing down
on western Cuba today. It'll cause big trouble in
Cuba, but the storm's future is uncertain after that. 

 Late season Hurricane Rafael is now bearing down on western Cuba, and like several other storms in this weird hurricane season, Rafael is turning out to be an over-performer. 

Top sustained winds with Rafael had increased to 110 mph by late this morning,  and were expected to increase further by the time it reaches landfall in western Cuba later today.   

Rafael rapidly strengthened overnight, a habit of several hurricanes this year. Think Beryl, Helene, Milton as examples. 

Water in the western Caribbean Sea is unusually warm, even by their standards, probably thanks in part to climate change. So we have another strong one. 

Rafael will probably be what is considered a major hurricane later today, which is one with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.

Rafael will weaken slightly as it passes over Cuba, but will still be a pretty impressive hurricane once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico.

From there, the future of Rafael gets more uncertain, but the trends might well be good for the United States.

I think.

Originally, Rafael the thinking among many forecasters is that Rafael would continue to head north while weakening over dry air and increasing upper level winds. That would make Rafael a "mere" tropical storm at landfall in the United States.

Troublesome, but not another Helene or Milton.

The forecast now is shifting. Forecasters had wondered for days if a strong ridge of high pressure to the north would steer Rafael westward, and that's looking more likely.  That would put Rafael over warmer water and less disruptive upper level winds than if it headed north. The result is Rafael would last longer as a hurricane and only slowly weaken.

But it would also avoid a United States landfall. 

The future of Rafael beyond about Friday is really uncertain. Hopefully, it will die a slow death over the western Gulf of Mexico, but we don't really know that for sure yet. 

GEORGIA

Well to the northeast of Rafael, we have another heavy rain and flood situation, this time in parts of Georgia and South Carolina. 

You might remember in the couple of days leading up to Hurricane Helene, torrential rains fell in western North Carolina.  So when the torrents with the actual hurricane hit that region, cataclysmic, deadly floods resulted.

The rains before Helene up in North Carolina were known as a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE.  These heavy rains often set up hundreds of miles north of a hurricane, and can themselves cause serious flooding. 

Or, they can set the stage for catastrophic flooding when the hurricane actually arrives, like in the case of Helene.

This time, a sort of PRE event is setting up in Georgia. Moisture streaming north from Hurricane Rafael is starting to pool in Georgia, which should unleash torrential rains today and tonight. 

A good six inches or more of rain could fell across central Georgia and southwestern South Carolina through tonight. It actually hasn't rained much down there lately, and you'd think that would limit the flooding a bit.

But the dryness has made the hard Georgia clay even harder, so the water will run off more easily into creeks and rivers, raising the flash flood risk.

The great news is that Hurricane Rafael, as noted, is not heading toward anything close to Georgia. So this won't be a case of a flood made exponentially worse by an arriving hurricane, since such a storm isn't heading toward the Southeast. 

UPDATE: "Cutiecane" Oscar Hits Cuba, And It's Nothing To Laugh At

Satellite view of small but dangerous Hurricane Oscar
making landfall in eastern Cuba just before
local sunset. Flooding and landslides are its biggest threats.

Tiny little Hurricane Oscar, as expected, made landfall in Cuba at around 5:50 EDT p.m. today.  

The eye hit the city of Baracoa in Guantanamo province with maximum sustained winds of around 80 mph. 

Oscar grew a little larger in size today, but that's not saying much. Yesterday, hurricane force winds extended out only five miles from the eye in the center of the storm. 

Right before landfall today, those hurricanes force winds extended out ten miles from the eye.

That's still a damn small hurricane. So small that at least one wag and hurricane dubbed Oscar a "cutiecane."

 Oscar's effects on Cuba will be anything but cute, despite its small size. The storm could dump five to 10 inches of rain on parts of Cuba, with isolated areas receiving as much as 15 inches. 

That amount of rain is expected to fall because Hurricane Oscar has a slow forward speed and if anything is slowing down. That'll give it plenty of time to dump a lot of rain.

The storm is hitting a mountainous section of Cuba, which leads to a high risk of landslides and mudslides. 

Moreover, Cuba has been hit by two catastrophic electrical grid failures in recent days. The grid collapsed on Friday, and the government was beginning to restore power when the whole thing collapsed again Saturday. It's unclear when electricity will be restored to most of the island.

The power failures make it harder to prepare for and respond to the effects of Hurricane Oscar.

The storm is expected to linger over eastern Cuba until early Tuesday when it will start to drift north into the Bahamas. It's still unclear whether Oscar will survive over the rough terrain of Cuba. But if it does remain sort of intact, forecasts don't expect it to strengthen back into a hurricane. 

But given Oscar's surprising history, you never know. 

Teeny Tiny Hurricane Oscar Is The Weirdest And Most Surprising Hurricane Of The Year

Visible satellite view of itty-bitty Hurricane Oscar
approaching the northeastern coast of 
Cuba Sunday morning.

 Meteorologists are still agog over Hurricane Oscar, which abruptly formed Saturday southeast of the Bahamas.  

The storm is extremely weird because nobody even expected it to form. And when it did, it turned out to be one of the tiniest hurricanes on record. 

THE SURPRISE

What would become Hurricane Oscar was a struggling disturbance that spent several days crossing the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa to a spot southeast of the Bahamas Saturday morning. 

Just before dawn Saturday, the National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance a mere 10 percent chance of becoming a weak tropical depression or storm.

By late morning, it had turned into a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center and other experts are remarkably good at sniffing out days in advance when a disturbance would turn into a hurricane, so this was a stunning miss. 

Just proves that not everything about the atmosphere is completely understood just yet.

TINY OSCAR

Once Oscar formed it proved to be remarkably tiny. 

Even though top winds were 85 mph late Saturday afternoon, hurricane force winds extended out only five miles from the eye at the center of the storm.  Tropical storm force winds only went out 40 miles from the center. 

The only example people could find of a smaller tropical system was Tropical Storm Marco in October, 2008, which never reached hurricane status. Its-bitsy Marco's tropical storm force winds only extended out 11.5 miles from its center when it was off the Mexican coast. 

For perspective, if the eye of Hurricane Oscar was over Waterfront Park in Burlington on the shores of Lake Champlain last evening, hurricane force winds would extend out only as far as a little east of the Patrick Leahy International Airport in South Burlington. Tropical storm force winds would only extend to a little south of Middlebury, and folks in Rutland would wonder what all the fuss was about.  

Hurricane Oscar was so diminutive that noted hurricane chaser Josh Morgerman dubbed the storm a "cutiecane."

Morgerman said he's not chasing this one in large part because of its minuscule size. Really small hurricanes are prone to rapid intensity changes. They can blow up fast, like it did Saturday, but they can also fall apart much more rapidly than normal sized hurricanes. 

Early this morning, Hurricane Oscar had not grown any larger than it was Saturday, and made a brief landfall on Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas with top winds of 80 mph. Forecasters say it should remain a hurricane as it reaches the coast of northeastern Cuba later today.

The rough terrain of that section of Cuba should really rough little Oscar up, and it should weaken.  Forecasters think it will then turn north, then northeast and push through the Bahamas as a tropical storm tomorrow and Tuesday. 

Of course, that forecast is super iffy, given its minuscule size. Plus, hostile upper level winds might well develop, which tend to quickly tear small tropical systems apart. Teeny-weeny Oscar might not survive Cuba at all.

Oscar will not threaten the United States. There are also no signs of any new tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean after Oscar for at least a week.

 Little Hurricane Oscar is also notable because it was part of a weirdly busy stretch of activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach noted Oscar was the eighth named Atlantic storm to form after September 24.  

That's the most tropical storms and hurricanes on record to form in the Atlantic Ocean between September 24 and October 19. 

Two Tropical Storm Surprises Today, But No Threat To The United States

Very small, but well organized Tropical Storm Oscar
abruptly formed this morning and was just shy of 
hurricane status by mid-afternoon north of Hispaniola.

 All of a sudden this morning, we had two new tropical storms in the Atlantic basin - one is named Nadine, the other is Oscar.  

Nadine was only a semi-surprise, but Oscar seemed to come out of nowhere. 

NADINE

For days before Nadine formed, the storm was the subject of social media rumor mongering and click bait farming.

The story, meant to illicit fear and inspire lots of social media clicks and therefore income, was that Nadine would form somewhere off the Central American coast, become powerful, and make a beeline toward Florida, just as catastrophic hurricanes Helene and Milton did.

The meteorologists who know better weren't nearly as alarmed. For good reason. Sure enough, Nadine formed off the Central American coast yesterday, then headed westward to make landfall near Belize City, Belize late this morning.

Before landfall, ocean waters beneath Nadine were quite warm and atmospheric conditions were favorable, so it managed to attain top winds of 60 mph at landfall. But it's moving inland now, and will become a rain and probably flood maker down in that neck of the woods.

It'll dissipate over southern Mexico by sometimes tomorrow. Upper level patterns and a cold front that plunged deeply into the Gulf of Mexico has prevented, and will prevent, any movement of Nadine northward. So no threat to the United States

OSCAR

Oscar the Grouch, as I'm calling this one, is arguably the biggest surprise of a very surprising hurricane season.

Since last week, a disturbance has been staggering westward across the Atlantic Ocean, never finding a way to develop into something stronger. As of yesterday, the National Hurricane Center was giving this lame thing just a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

Until it did.

Out of seemingly nowhere this morning, the very lame disturbance organized into a tropical storm. Since then, it's been developing fast and actually has a shot at becoming a short lived hurricane.

As of 11 a.m., the National Hurricane Center had Tropical Storm Oscar's top winds at 40 mph. But satellite imagery and some preliminary reports from hurricane hunters early this afternoon indicated the storm was powering up rapidly. By 1:15 p.m., Oscar's top wind speed had been updated to 70 mph.  

Oscar is a tiny little thing in terms of size. Tropical storm force winds only extended out 35 miles from the center of this thing.

Very small tropical storms and hurricanes have a tendency to get stronger more quickly than bigger storms. They also weaken much more quickly than larger systems. 

That'll make the strength of this thing hard to predict over the next couple days.

Oscar has prompted tropical storm warnings for the Turks and Caicos islands, southeastern Bahamas and parts of Cuba. It's moving generally westward, and is forecast to be near northeastern Cuba by Sunday night.

That cold front and a dip in the jet stream looks like it will protect Florida from whatever Tropical Storm Oscar becomes. The dip in the jet stream should eventually turn Oscar to the north, then northeast, so it would avoid Florida entirely.

The weird Atlantic hurricane season of 2024 continues on!

This And That: A Vermont Spring Milestone, And Weird Weather Elsewhere

Animal tracks in the snow last evening in my
St. Albans, Vermont yard. Looks like they had been
sculpted by wind and sun during the day. 

 It was cold out there in Vermont this morning, as expected. 

But look at it this way, it'll very likely be a long time before you see weather this cold again.   

Temperatures were in the teens this morning, with some single digits in the cold hollows. It was below zero in some of the cold hollows Sunday morning. 

Unless something incredibly strange happens in April, these are the coldest temperatures you'll see until November or December. 

Don't get your spring mood on just yet. It's hard to do anyway with all the snow on the ground in most of Vermont. 

 Also, it pretty much always snows in late March and April. We probably won't have any more mega-snows, but I pretty much guarantee you'll see snow again before spring really arrives. 

Since the weather is quiet out there in Vermont today, I found some this and that weird things to talk about  elsewhere.

Kansas County Everything

Last evening, portions of a county in northwest Kansas managed to find themselves under a tornado warning, a blizzard warning and a dust storm advisory. The tornado threat arrived ahead of a cold front. Radar images definitely showed rotation in a severe thunderstorm, but it's unclear whether the tornado actually touched down not far from Oakley, Kansas.

The big thunderstorm's strong winds stirred up the dust.  Following the cold front, strong north winds and snow developed the blizzard later at night and this morning. 

The temperature in Oakley went from 69 degree Sunday afternoon to 24 degrees with a wind chill of 6 above early this morning. 

Talk about wait a minute and the weather will change. I don't think I want to live in northwest Kansas. Too much going on. 

Cuban Supercell

Supercell thunderstorms, those persistent, intense, big hail producing, usually rotating and sometimes tornado-producing storms, are a fixture in the United States Plains and Midwest the spring and early summer. They're common in other parts of the world too.

But not Cuba. However, a persistent supercell swept across parts or the island Friday night, surely causing wind and hail damage. However, we have no confirmed reports. Supercells are extremely rare in Cuba but they've happened before.

In 2019, a supercell spawned a tornado in Havana that killed 3 people and left extensive damage. Another strong tornado hit parts of Cuba back in 1940.

Friday night's storms also created rotating thunderstorms that threatened the Florida Keys with a risk of tornadoes, but none are known to have touched down. 

Heat Index Of 144 Degrees?

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil is a hot city. You know, the famed beaches and all?

But recently, a section of Rio had a seemingly impossible 144 degree heat index.   The heat index takes into account both the heat and humidity  to give you a sense of how hot it feels.

A heat index that high is obviously extremely dangerous, and heat waves can cause multiple deaths, but I have no news as to what happened in and around Rio with this torrid weather. 

Much of Brazil, including Rio de Janeiro have had months of record breaking heat due to a combination of El Nino and climate change. 

  

Hurricane Season Might Be Getting Off To A Fast Start

Satellite photo from showing United States, Mexico, the 
Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic Ocean. That mess
of clouds in the southern Gulf of Mexico could become 
Tropical Storm Alex.

 Officially, the hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean side of North America begins today, June 1, and there's already a tropical storm threat to talk about. 

The National Hurricane Center is giving a disturbance near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.  If it does form, it appears it's poised to give Florida  and Cuba an absolute drenching. 

At least a half foot of rain is forecast in both places, which of course could lead to some pretty nasty flooding. 

If this thing develops into a tropical storm, they'll name it Alex. It'll probably fall short of becoming a full-fledged hurricane, as strong upper level winds are and will be interfering with its development. That's typical early in the hurricane season.  

Usually upper level winds are stronger and ocean temperatures are cooler in June than in, say, August.  That's why early season storms are usually (but not always!) weaker than the powerhouse hurricanes later in the summer and early autumn. 

That said, there's two factors that are helping wannabe Alex.  Ocean temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are warmer than normal. Plus, wannabe Alex is getting energy from what once was Hurricane Agatha.

On the Pacific Ocean side of North America, hurricane season starts May 15, and we've already had our first hurricane. This was definitely an exception to the rule that June tropical systems are weak.

Agatha was the strongest landfalling hurricane in May with winds of at least 105 mph when it came ashore a couple days ago in the southern state of Oaxaca, Mexico. It killed at least 11 people and 20 people are still missing after the flooding and mudslides caused by Agatha. 

Agatha fell apart over the mountains of southern Mexico as all landfalling hurricanes lose steam over land. But its remnant energy is feeding into the disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula, which could help wannabe Alex get its act together. 

If wannabe Alex develops into a tropical storm, it won't be the earliest on record. Despite the fact that hurricane season officially starts on June 1, there have been tropical storms in May. There has even been three Atlantic Ocean tropical storms recorded in April, the most recent being in 2017.   

The National Hurricane Center predict this year will be another very busy one in the Atlantic Ocean, due to a number of factors. Those include a continuing La Nina global weather pattern and ocean temperatures that are mostly running warmer than normal. 

Hurricane Elsa Update: Hispaniola, Cuba, Florida Still Targets

Satellite view of Hurricane Elsa Friday after in trashed
Barbabos. Image from NOAA.

Early Season Hurricane Elsa was continuing its march through the Caribbean Sea this morning, having trashed Barbados and setting its sights on Hispaniola, Cuba and Florida. 

Surprising to me, anyway, given its location, this was the first hurricane in more than 60 years to strike Barbados. Numerous homes there collapsed or lost their roofs, and there was widespread additional damage there and on nearby St. Lucia. So far, no deaths have been reported. 

Elsa's forward motion is around 30 mph, which is awfully fast for a hurricane. Top winds with the storm were 75 mph, making it barely a hurricane. It's a little less powerful than yesterday, when top winds were 85 mph.

Elsa's forward speed is forecast to slow down somewhat today and tomorrow. Elsa should be near the southern coast of Hispaniola tonight, and be affecting Jamaica and Cuba tomorrow. By Monday and Tuesday, South Florida should be feeling the effects of Elsa. 

There's still a lot of questions as to how strong Elsa will be in the coming days. If it interacts a lot with the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba, it could weak a lot.  If it stays in the open water south of those islands for awhile, it could maintain most of its strength.

It'll weaken heading north over Cuba, but how much is the question. And will Elsa be able to restrengthen a bit once it emerges into the water south of the Florida Keys?

And what about Florida?  We don't know if Elsa will target the area around Miami, or head west up toward Tampa, or plow right into central Florida.  In any event, Floridians ought to be preparing for some coastal storm surges and especially inland flooding.

It's been wet in much of Florida lately and the ground in many spots is pretty saturated. If Elsa dumps some heavy rain around there, we could be looking at plenty of floods. We'll see.

Beyond Florida, Elsa will move toward the northeast, but it's still way too soon to have a good handle on whether it will affect New England, and if so, how. 

Forecasters Were Right About Zombie Eta

Once-Hurricane Eta is expected to be reborn and 
possibly become a tropical storm threat in South
Florida and perhaps the Gulf Coast states.

Hurricane Eta, as we well know, unleashed some terrible flooding on Nicaragua and Honduras this week.

The storm has killed at least 57 people in Central America, and to me it looks like unfortunately, that toll is certain to rise.  

The only "good" news is this won't be as bad as Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which is believed to have killed 11,000 people in the same region. 

There's more evidence today that Eta is not done yet. 

The center of Eta's remains poked back out into the western Caribbean Sea just off the coast of Honduras overnight.  

Thunderstorms are once again firing around the center of what is now a tropical depression.  A reborn Tropical Storm Eta now seems inevitable. Zombie Eta is about to arrive.

Eta will never again reach the intensity it had as a monster Category 4 hurricane when it hit Nicaragua a few days ago.  There's too many complicating factors, like wind shear aloft, interaction with land, and a broad circulation in Eta that will take time to get its act together. 

But Eta will be over very warm water, so it will intensify into a pretty strong tropical storm. There's even an outside chance it could become a hurricane again.  Intensity forecasts are tricky with tropical systems, and this one is no exception 

Once again in this busy Atlantic tropical storm season, the United States looks like it's in play.  Eta will head northeastward and hit Cuba toward Sunday.

From there, things might get a little weird.  A storm in the upper atmosphere in the western Gulf of Mexico seems like it wants to pull Eta north toward the southern tip of Florida, then westward into the central Gulf of Mexico. From there, who knows?

November tropical storms do have some trouble surviving north of the Caribbean, due to stronger upper level winds this time of year. But they do happen. It's still hurricane season. 

At this point, Eta looks like it will never again be a powerful wind maker.  But it certainly has a shot of unleashing some nasty floods on southern Florida, which has already had a very soggy autumn.  Stay tuned!