Coldest Vermont/New York April Morning In A Decade; Spring Returns This Afternoon. Believe It Or Not, Fire Danger By Tomorrow?

A wintry April scene in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
this evening, but by noon, most of this snow will
be gone, and we can get back to our regularly
scheduled spring. 

As expected, we had some winter cold to start this clear April morning, and some areas around Vermont and New York really got into this January-like spell. 

Saranac Lake, New York was down to a wild minus 3 this morning, which the latest in the season subzero temperature I've seen in the region in decades..

I did find one later in the season subzero reading in Saranac Lake. It was 3 below there way back on April 12, 1926.

Here in Vermont, I saw that it had gotten to at least 3 above zero at Lake Eden, so it's   a cold hollow or two in the Northeast Kingdom could have touched zero early this morning. 

Elsewhere, Montpelier got down to 14 degrees, tying their record low for the date, first set in 1982.   

Burlington did not come close to its record low, which is 11 degrees back in 1972. It got down to 16 degrees, though. The last time it was colder than that was a decade ago when in reached 14 degrees on April 5, 2016.   

I noticed the birds, which have been making a racket most mornings, have been pretty silent this morning. I think gardens might have lost their shot at magnolia flowers later this morning. However, the daffodil, crocus and hyacinth shoots that have been poking up should survive this just fine. 

Also, spring staples such as lilacs should also be fine, as the buds are still currently pretty tight and small. 

TODAY:

With the strong April sun out there, temperatures should rocket upward super fast this morning, topping out in the 40s this afternoon.  That's still a little cooler than average for this time of year. But light winds and that sun will make it feel even warmer than it is. 

Where there's snow on the ground, it'll melt very fast, except in the shade. The humidity today will be at rock bottom.  It's hard to melt even a little snow in the shade when it's this dry, so the dark corners of your yard might still have snow on them at the end of the day. In the dry sun, the snow should disappear in a flash. 

FIRE DANGER?

This seems far fetched, given that many of us are started the day with snow on the ground, but by tomorrow, we'll actually have a  fire danger here in Vermont. 

In today's super low humidity, the snow will basically evaporate in the sun. Many areas of Vermont don't really even have snow on the ground this morning, especially in the Connecticut River Valley, so the moisture on the ground will dry quickly. 

There's no real greenery yet this time of year, so all those dry grasses and weeds and such are just kindling waiting to burn. Tomorrow, the sun should stay out, the humidity will stay very low, and the wind should pick up. 

In the Champlain Valley, winds by tomorrow afternoon should gust to 35 or even 40 mph. Elsewhere, most places should see gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. That's more than enough to spread even a small fire across the dry landscape. 

It might seem awfully sudden to go from snow to a fire hazard, but that's really common this time of year. High pressure systems from Canada are particularly dry this time of year. It's also a windy season and, as noted, things on the ground haven't greened up yet. This is pretty much peak fire season in Vermont. 

We've already had one large fire this year in Ferrisburgh that burned through 100 acres or so on March 31,  So we're already off to a not-great start this year.   

SPRING

On the bright side, spring weather will continue. It should get well into the 50s tomorrow. If a cold front holds off long enough on Friday, we could see some 60s.  It does look like a little rain might come through during the day or evening on Friday - those traditional April shower.

After a somewhat cooler but definitely not cold Saturday (highs in the low 50s), we could have a day or two threatening the 70 degree mark early next week. 

Vermont Has Coldest Morning In Two Years; And Is About To Become A Weather "Battleground State"

In this screen grab from a WCAX web cam this morning,
steam is seen rising from buildings in Rutland, Vermont.
Rutland had a low of 10 below this morning. 

It seems the bottom dropped out of our the thermometers overnight as everybody in Vermont got to experience an old fashioned subzero morning. 

Depending on where you were, it was the coldest morning since either February 3-4, 2023 or sometime in January, 2022.

It got down to at least 24 below at Lake Eden, Vermont. 

Elsewhere in the Green Mountain State, Morrisville touched 22 below, Newport 18 below, Montpelier 15 below. In the banana belt Champlain Valley, Burlington got to minus 8, easily the coldest this winter. 

In surrounding states, both Saranac Lake, New York and Berlin, New Hampshire were 26 below. 

As shivering cold as it was, this morning was no great shakes compared to historical standards. 

We didn't come close to breaking any record lows this morning. The honors for the worst Groundhog Day cold in Vermont goes to 1962, when it was 25 below in Burlington, minus 28 in Montpelier and a decidedly unpleasant 32 below in St. Johnsbury. 

No guarantees, but there's a probably at least a 50/50 chance or better that this morning will turn out to be the coldest in the winter of 2024-25.   We know it won't be this cold again for at least a week, but prepare for changeable weather. 

BATTLEGROUND STATE

We've fallen into a weather pattern that features storms repeatedly smacking into central and northern California and racing east/northeast across the nation into New England on a wicked fast jet stream. 

The storm track represents the battleground between Arctic air generating way up in the frigid north and the first hints of spring warmth trying to sneak up from the south. Here in Vermont, we're one of those battleground states.

Partly because they're moving so fast,  these storms don't have an opportunity to get super strong. But this battleground involving volleys of small storms is why we're having those wide swings in temperature I keep talking about. Warm fronts and cold fronts keep coming at us in quick succession.

Today/Monday 

The next modest storm is racing towards us now.  High clouds that came in around dawn prevented this morning's temperatures from getting even colder. South winds ahead of the storm will have temperatures climbing into the 20s for many of us this afternoon.

 For a few places in the Adirondacks, Vermont's Northeast Kingdom and northern New Hampshire, it will be nearly 50 degrees hotter by this evening than it was early this morning. 

The little storm will come through tonight through Monday night with a burst of snow overnight, with one to three inches of new snow for most of us. The Champlain and lower Connecticut Valleys might get under an inch, actually.

We get a mini-thaw Monday with valley highs touching 40 in several towns with a few rain drops mixing with snow showers here and there. A few more snow showers come in once it cools off Monday night, but we won't see anything huge. 

Tuesday and Onward

The fast pace of weather systems with that roaring fast jet stream overhead makes forecasting a challenge, so expect the unexpected.  And a continuation of wait a minute and it will change whether Tuesday and Wednesday look chilly but not as bad as this weekend has been. Still, at least a few of use will be below zero again early Wednesday morning. 

The next storm is due around Thursday.  Some weather models take it to our northwest, which would give us snow or a mix changing to rain. Other models keep the storm a little to our south, so that would be a snow maybe mixed with freezing rain scenario.  It won't be a huge storm, but it could be messy. 

Stay tuned for updated forecasts there.

After a break for a day or two, there probably will be some sort of new storm on Sunday, a week from today. It's way too soon to tell you how that potential storm would play out. 

Long range forecasts are iffy, but it's looking like February is going to be a more active month than January was.  Storms were lacking in January. We might not be so lucky this month. 

This And That: A Vermont Spring Milestone, And Weird Weather Elsewhere

Animal tracks in the snow last evening in my
St. Albans, Vermont yard. Looks like they had been
sculpted by wind and sun during the day. 

 It was cold out there in Vermont this morning, as expected. 

But look at it this way, it'll very likely be a long time before you see weather this cold again.   

Temperatures were in the teens this morning, with some single digits in the cold hollows. It was below zero in some of the cold hollows Sunday morning. 

Unless something incredibly strange happens in April, these are the coldest temperatures you'll see until November or December. 

Don't get your spring mood on just yet. It's hard to do anyway with all the snow on the ground in most of Vermont. 

 Also, it pretty much always snows in late March and April. We probably won't have any more mega-snows, but I pretty much guarantee you'll see snow again before spring really arrives. 

Since the weather is quiet out there in Vermont today, I found some this and that weird things to talk about  elsewhere.

Kansas County Everything

Last evening, portions of a county in northwest Kansas managed to find themselves under a tornado warning, a blizzard warning and a dust storm advisory. The tornado threat arrived ahead of a cold front. Radar images definitely showed rotation in a severe thunderstorm, but it's unclear whether the tornado actually touched down not far from Oakley, Kansas.

The big thunderstorm's strong winds stirred up the dust.  Following the cold front, strong north winds and snow developed the blizzard later at night and this morning. 

The temperature in Oakley went from 69 degree Sunday afternoon to 24 degrees with a wind chill of 6 above early this morning. 

Talk about wait a minute and the weather will change. I don't think I want to live in northwest Kansas. Too much going on. 

Cuban Supercell

Supercell thunderstorms, those persistent, intense, big hail producing, usually rotating and sometimes tornado-producing storms, are a fixture in the United States Plains and Midwest the spring and early summer. They're common in other parts of the world too.

But not Cuba. However, a persistent supercell swept across parts or the island Friday night, surely causing wind and hail damage. However, we have no confirmed reports. Supercells are extremely rare in Cuba but they've happened before.

In 2019, a supercell spawned a tornado in Havana that killed 3 people and left extensive damage. Another strong tornado hit parts of Cuba back in 1940.

Friday night's storms also created rotating thunderstorms that threatened the Florida Keys with a risk of tornadoes, but none are known to have touched down. 

Heat Index Of 144 Degrees?

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil is a hot city. You know, the famed beaches and all?

But recently, a section of Rio had a seemingly impossible 144 degree heat index.   The heat index takes into account both the heat and humidity  to give you a sense of how hot it feels.

A heat index that high is obviously extremely dangerous, and heat waves can cause multiple deaths, but I have no news as to what happened in and around Rio with this torrid weather. 

Much of Brazil, including Rio de Janeiro have had months of record breaking heat due to a combination of El Nino and climate change.