Long Lasting Texas Heat Now Spreading; Violent Storms On Edge Of "Heat Dome" Humidity/Rain Lingers Here

Derecho approaches Charleston, Illinois Thursday in
this web cam grab.

 Aside from the smoke from Canada choking large swaths of the United States, we now have a nasty heat wave and violent storms added to the mix. 

Heat warnings and advisories are scattered from California to Georgia.  

The Midwest is digging out from a violent derecho on Thursday and more nasty storms are on the way. 

And a tease we'll get to near the bottom of the post: We here in Vermont aren't immune from the bad weather over the next few days, but it won't be anything like the South and Midwest. 

Let's get into the heat wave first:

HEAT GROWS

Most of Texas has been broiling under a relentless, long lasting heat wave for about two weeks now.

Mercifully, the heat has avoided most of the rest of the nation.  In many parts of the United States, it's been a relatively cool June. 

That state of affairs is ending. 

The heat is expanding and is now starting to include almost the entire South from California to Georgia. And it's starting to creep north. Heat advisories have gone into effect as far north as Missouri.

Blame what is known as a heat dome. It's an area of high pressure with sinking air that prevents clouds and showers from forming. Heat domes trap hot, and often humid air beneath it, so people who live under one of these domes definitely suffer. 

The heat dome in Texas has been especially long lasting. And brutal. 

The Texas heat has been impressive. Del Rio, Texas had 10 daily record highs in a row, which is absolutely insane.  If you get three record hot days in a row, that's impressive. But 10?  Also, it has not been under 80 degrees in Del Rio since June 15. 

Already, at least 13 deaths have been attributed to the heat in Texas. But that might be an under count. 

In the dystopia that is Texas, prison inmates are dying of heat in prisons that are not air conditioned, but the cause of the deaths is often attributed by state officials as "cardiac arrest," masking the role of heat.

I agree that people who commit crimes must be punished, and prisons should not really be cushy. And what about the prison guards that have to work in those conditions?

But the Texas system is dangerous. As Texas Tribune reports:

"More than two-thirds of Texas' 100 prisons don't have air conditioning in most living areas. Every summer, as temperatures routinely soar well into the triple digits, thousands of offices and tens of thousands of prisoners are cramped inside concrete and steel buildings without ventilation, save windows broken out of desperation and fans that blow hot air. The heat has killed prisoners, likely contributed to severe staff shortages and cost taxpayers millions of dollars wrongful death and civil rights lawsuits over the last decade."

By the way, Texas lawmakers, as usual did not put any money directly toward installing air conditioning in the hot prisons, despite a $32.7 billion budget surplus, Texas Tribune says. 

Over in California, they've had a pretty cool year so far. That's changing now. Much of the Golden State is under excessive heat warnings and advisories. Temperatures are expected to reach the triple digits in the Central Valley.

So much snow fell in the Sierra Nevada mountains this past winter that a lot of it is still there. Melting will become rapid during this heat wave, so creeks and rivers flowing out of the mountains could flood. Plus, people tempted to dip into these creek waters and swimming holes could be endangered by the very cold water flowing in them. 

The good news is the part of the heat dome over Texas is weakening somewhat. It will stay hot there, just not as hot as it's been.

BRUTAL STORMS

A derecho swept across a swath of the Midwest late Wednesday through much of the day Thursday. It started with a supercell with an impressive tornado in the southwest corner of Nebraska late Wednesday, then a streak of big hail and damaging winds overnight in Kansas and Nebraska, followed by a great gush of thunderstorm winds of up to 100 mph roaring through parts of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. 

AccuWeather radar image of the derecho in the Midwest
Thursday. When a line of storms forms a backwards "C"
like this, winds at the front of the C are especially intense.

I'm sure damage totals will be in the hundreds of millions of dollars if not more, given the huge area this storm covered. It also hit populated areas like Springfield, Peoria and Champagne, Illinois and and Indianapolis, Indiana. 

Cities suffered widespread tree damage and downed power lines that in some instances will take days to fix. In the hardest hit towns, where winds reached 100 mph, roofs flew off buildings and houses, grain bins blew away and outbuildings were shattered.

More severe storms are expected today.  This is something called the "ring of fire."  Weather disturbances ride along the northern edges of that so-called heat dome in the South.  These disturbances tap into the extreme heat and high moisture content of the air to create violent storms. 

"Ring of fire" storms are pretty common June through much of August.

Some of the same areas hit yesterday are under the gun today and tomorrow. Not many tornadoes are forecast, but many storms with destructive winds and hail are expected to blossom

UP HERE IN VERMONT

Nothing so dramatic is in the cards for Vermont, but that doesn't mean the weather will be completely benign. 

Today still actually looks fairly nice, despite the wildfire smoke that has prompted a continuation of the air quality alert.  It's still not as bad as last Sunday, but people with health problems, the elderly and very young should try to limit their activity outdoors. 

At least it won't rain for once. But it will still be a bit on the humid side.

The real humidity and the shower threat comes back tomorrow and last through much of the upcoming week. A few showers and thunderstorms might rumble through tomorrow. 

Those showers will be more widespread on Sunday, so once again, we'll have to watch for the chance of a localized instance of flash flooding or two somewhere in the state. If any flooding happens, it won't be widespread, but could cause real trouble in a town or two.

Hit and miss storms will continue through much of the upcoming week amid the persistent humidity. It won't rain all the time, but you might find yourself dodging a downpour or thunderstorm or two during your Fourth of July fun Monday through Wednesday.

There's a chance a cold front could finally diminish the humidity in about a week, but that is an uncertain proposition to say the least. 

It's possible that welcome cold front could fall apart before it ever gets here. Stay tuned. 

 

Extreme Rainfall Events Growing More Common And We're Not Ready

Flash flooding in Richmond, Vermont back in 2013.
Extreme rainfall events are becoming more common
nationwide, and our infrastructure isn't ready for it.

 This week, we watched the skies and radar images in Vermont for signs torrential rains were about to lead to flash flooding.   

We lucked out this time, with no reports of any major problems, though there was some flash flooding in  neighboring New Hampshire. 

This was just one local weather event, or potential one.

We know, however, that extreme rainfall events are increasing in much of the world due to climate change. That's true of most of the United States, and it's true here in Vermont. 

The latest bit of news on this comes from non-profit First Street Foundation. The gist of this latest peer-reviewed study is that emergency and flood planners are not taking into account a "new normal" that is bringing more extreme precipitation events to most of the United States, including here in Vermont.  

As the Washington Post reports: 

"Americans should consider the rising number of catastrophic rain events in recent decades not as outliers, but rather 'as the new normal for many area," Monday's report finds. 'What this means for communities today is that their understanding of risk is often underestimated,' the group wrote, 'and in many locations the infrastructure in place or that is currently being built to protect communities, property and individuals is built to an insufficient standard.'

The study starts with basic physics. As air temperature increases, it can hold more and more water vapor. For every 1 degree C increase, 7 percent more water is carried in the same air volume. 

This can have a dramatic effect on the intensity, duration and frequency of heat rain events.  

First Street looked at 795 accurate rainfall recording stations across the United States to reach their conclusion that 1 in 100 year rainfall events are actually now more frequent than the term implies. 

By the way, for accuracy, a 1 in 100 year rainfall event doesn't mean you'll have to wait 100 years for the next big flood. It just means that each year, there's a 1 percent chance of such an extreme event. 

In any event, what were 1 in 100 year events are now 1 in 50 year events. Or even sometimes more frequent than that. 

According to First Street: 

"The analysis reveals that a significant number of highly populated areas are experiencing higher flood risk than what the local communities consider a 1-in-100 year event. This highlights the urgent need for accurate rainfall data to inform infrastructure design and investment decisions. Furthermore, the analysis shows that cities like Baltimore, Dallas, Washington DC and New York City face substantial increases in risk."

The Washington Post gets into specifics: 

"By First Streets estimates, more than half of Americans now live in an area that is twice as likely to experience such a rain event than is predicted by Atlas 14, produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric and considered the gold standard of precipitation frequency estimates across the United States."

Current standards for building flood protections, proper drainage, and bridges and culverts large enough to handle floods cling to the old normal. The "new normal" makes these building standards obsolete, leaving communities more vulnerable to flooding. 

NOAA is working on an "Atlas 15" that would incorporate the changes in rainfall intensity and include estimates on future climate conditions. This takes a lot of research, testing and smart people, so Atlas 15 won't be available until 2027 or so. 

The First Street Study concludes that while we in Vermont are definitely at risk from these heavy rainfall episodes, other parts of the nation are in even worse shape.  Places like the Gulf Coast, much of Appalachia, some of the big cities in the Mid-Atlantic, and sections of the Midwest are most at risk. 

Here in Vermont, precipitation has increased by 21 percent since 1900, according to a 2021 Vermont Climate Assessment from the UVM Fund Institute for Environment.

The Vermont Climate Assessment states:

"Vermont now experiences 2.4 more days of heavy precipitation than in the 1960s, mostly in the summer. With flooding expected to increase, improved stormwater infrastructure and planning is required to reduce damage to homes, roads, bridges and farm fields. Heavier rainstorms will impact farm and forestry operations."

Vermont has been at risk for flash flooding almost all week.  As noted, we managed to avoid trouble this time.   Obviously a very good thing.  But when will our luck run out. 

Given the changing climate, the answer is probably sooner rather than later. 

Flood Threat Over For Now; Smoke Makes A (Cough) Triumphant Return

Visible satellite photo from this morning shows
clouds still centered over Vermont. All that milky
stuff is wildfire smoke from Canada covering
most of the eastern U.S. and much of Canada.

 We in Vermont squeaked through another day Wednesday of downpours and flood threats with not that much trouble, at least here in the Green Mountain State.  

I didn't see any flash flood warnings in Vermont, but given the relatively risk going into yesterday and what radar looked like, I'm sure there were some driveway washouts, eroded back roads and other bits of trouble in parts of the state, especially in the Northeast Kingdom.

There was no widespread damage, to be sure, but there had to be a boatload of minor issues to keep town road crews really busy and owners of steep property frustrated.

Rainfall has been super variable. Some times had a few inches of rain between Sunday and Wednesday. Other places completely missed out. Between Saturday evening and Wednesday evening, my place in St. Albans, Vermont got a paltry 0.10 inches. 

The good news is the showers and thunderstorms will be greatly diminished today and tomorrow. The bad news is the smoke is back. The mixed news is that we're getting something of a break from the humidity today, but it will be back for an extended stay, starting tomorrow and then ramping up more afterwards. 

We'll deal with all three issues but let's start with the smoke. 

SMOKE GETS IN YOUR EYES

Another air quality alert is in effect for Vermont starting at 10 a.m. and lasting to at least midnight tonight. I have a  feeling the air quality alert might be extended into tomorrow. We are one of at least 17 states that are dealing with air quality alerts today. 

That smoke from Canadian wildfires is persistent. And a lot of it is trapped in a rather slow moving weather pattern, the same one that is providing all the showers and humidity to the Northeast.

The air quality was actually pretty good over Vermont early this morning, but it will deteriorate during the day as light west and northwest winds shift the smoke back into our neck of the woods. 

I don't think the air quality will get quite as bad as it was over northern Vermont on Sunday, but it will still be a bit rough for people with lung issues, asthma, that sort of thing. Unlike Sunday, the smoke will cover the entire state, not just the north. 

I'm not sure exactly when the smoke will flush out. But my prediction earlier in the spring that this summer would be smoky is coming true, and I don't see an end to the smoke risk anytime soon. 

RAIN/DOWNPOURS

The chances of rain are down today, but not eliminated. The upper level low that has been causing the wet weather is still nearby, but at least it's slowly departing. The best chances for showers and storms will be in eastern Vermont, and maybe northern parts of the state close to the Canadian border.

Even so, anything that comes will be hit and miss.  There might be one or two instances of locally heavy downpours, but if that happens, it won't last long and I'm not worried about any flooding.

Friday, hallelujah! it looks like we'll get through an entire day without rain.  It'll be partly sunny, smoky, and in the low to mid 80s with moderate humidity. So, for once, not bad!

IT'S ONLY HUMID

The high humidity, and daily scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms return Saturday and stay with us through the Fourth of July and probably beyond.  It won't be that hot, as the weather pattern is shunting the truly scorching hot weather to the southern half of the United States.

Still, with afternoon temperatures in the low 80s and dew points in the upper 60s, it will be uncomfortable. 

Get used to stuffy nights and iffy afternoon weather. We won't have any days during that stretch that will be complete washouts, but if you're doing anything outdoors, you'll need to keep an eye on the sky as local downpours will be a near constant threat. 

UPDATE 1 PM WED: Flash Flood Risk Once Again Growing Vermont/New Hampshire This Afternoon

The area within the sort of pink cloud on this
map from NOAA is at risk for flash flooding
this afternoon and evening. 

 I'm hoping this will be the second false alarm in two days, but I think not.  

The flash flood threat in parts of Vermont and New Hampshire are growing this afternoon.

As of 1 p.m.  feeder band of wet air and heavy showers is working its way up through New Hampshire, the Connecticut River valley on both sides of the river and into Vermont's Northeast Kingdom.

Meanwhile, a broken band of growing showers and storms is slowly working its way into the Champlain Valley of New York and will soon cross into Vermont.  Other showers are starting to form in central Vermont.

This thick moisture flow, and the convergence of these two bands of south to north moving downpours will ramp up the flash flood chances this afternoon.

Some sunshine that broke through in Vermont helped increase instability. Moisture is available in a thick layer of the atmosphere, so that opens the door to heavy rains. 

 NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, in a special statement about the risk, had this to say early this afternoon: "This impressive overlap of forcing and moisture will produce widespread convection this afternoon and evening with rainfall rates likely eclipsing two inches per hour."

It's even possible the strongest storms could dump an inch of rain within 15 minutes. 

Soils have gotten much wetter in Vermont and New Hampshire. In some spots in both states, as little as one inch of rain within an hour or 1.5 inches within three hours might be enough to start triggering some flooding. 

The more we go over those figures, the worse it would get. 

Since the moisture and storms are on a south to north conveyer belt, the heaviest rain could keep hitting the same spots for a few hours.   

Anywhere in Vermont is at risk for flash flooding today, with the highest threat  from the Green Mountains eastward on into New Hampshire and western Maine, along with parts of Massachusetts. 

I would give New Hampshire the nod for the highest risk of flash flooding today, but all the areas I mentioned are susceptible

It did appear yesterday a flash flood threat would materialize along and west of the Green Mountains. That didn't really materialize. However, the threat today from the Greens eastward seems greater to me than anything we had yesterday. 

The weak front driving the line of showers over far eastern New York early this afternoon should crawl eastward by this evening, so the flood threat should diminish toward sunset.   

Long Stretch Of Vermont Humidity, Rain Risk And Occasional Smoke Loom

Ever notice in those zillions of pharmaceutical ads on TV, whatever the illness the pill is suppose to cure is alway, always described as "moderate to severe"?   

Uncertain skies over St. Albans, Vermont this morning
but at least there's patches of blue sky.  The blue
sky will fade behind wildfire smoke again by 
tomorrow, and at least moderate humidity will remain.

I guess that's how we can describe the humidity levels in Vermont for the past few days and for the foreseeable future. Some days will be quite humid. Other days, we'll get a break and it'll be only moderately humid.

Long gone are those dry, low humidity days of early to mid June!

The humidity is a little better this morning, but I think it will creep up this afternoon as a weak weather front from the west pools moisture.

That moisture will feed yet another day of showers and storms, some of them with locally heavy rain.  Like it's been in the past few days, it'll be hit and miss. Some spots will get torrential downpours, others will escape with sprinkles. 

Since it's been raining so much in some spots, once again we have the risk of some local flooding, especially on places where it has rained hard lately.  

A local flash flood could hit anywhere, but the best chances of any problems seem like they would be in a central and perhaps southern Vermont, especially near the Green Mountains south of Camels Hump. 

That weak front will bring somewhat lower humidity tomorrow and Friday. This won't be any kind of big rush of cool, clean, dry air from Canada. 

Two problems with that fantasy: For one, the air mass won't change that much. It will still be kinda sticky.  More importantly, the air coming from Canada is not clean these days. 

The wildfire smoke northern Vermont choked on Sunday moved westward. A huge area of the Great Lakes and Midwest had unhealthy, even dangerous air from the smoke the past couple of days. Chicago had the worst air quality of any major city in the world Tuesday because of the Canadian smoke. That smoke from Canada has spread as far as Portugal and Spain. 

With a bit of a shift in the wind to the west and northwest tomorrow, the smoke will be back in Vermont. Lots of fires are still burning in central and northern Quebec, causing more and more smoke to pump into the atmosphere. 

I don't know whether the smoke will be as bad as it was in northern Vermont Sunday.  But the air quality will probably be on the yucky side starting tonight and lasting into at least Friday.  Unlike on Sunday, the smoke will cover all of Vermont and New England, not just areas near the Canadian border.

On top of all that, another surge of humid, showery weather, with those locally heavy downpours looks like they'll make a return for the upcoming weekend. 

Looking ahead to next week, I don't see any big changes:  No huge heat waves, but lingering humidity, and risks of showers and/or Canadian smoke. 

I would definitely rate this as suboptimal summer weather.   If this keeps up too long, I'll get a moderate to severe migraine. 

Tuesday Evening Update: Vermont Dodges Another Flood Bullet

Breaks in the clouds appearing to the west of St. Albans
after a day with much less rain than expected. Rainfall
was much heavier over the Green Mountains, but
it wasn't enough to trigger flash flooding. 

 Early afternoon radar looked ominous today. 

It appeared heavy storms and showers were starting to train - hit the same places over and over again - along the western slopes of the Green Mountains from about Bolton south.  

Some of these areas had already had excessive rains. 

As of Tuesday morning, some towns in the Green Mountains, like Hancock and Warren, had received over three inches of rain.  Although most places hadn't gotten that much, the soil was getting increasingly wet, and the new rains seemed to make flooding almost inevitable. 

A flood warning was issued for the western Green Mountains between Rutland and Bolton because of today's renewed heavy rains. 

But the downpours diminished fairly abruptly in the mid to late afternoon. Places along the western slopes got another soaking rain, but as far as I'm aware, no flooding developed. The flood warning quietly expired late this afternoon

Another bullet dodged.  But I imagine it was close, given how torrential some of the showers were. I got a report of 1.6 inches of rain  in Poultney within an hour, which is pretty impressive. 

In fact, some areas of Vermont are surprisingly dry, given how much rain was predicted this week. After torrential downpours on Saturday, my place in St. Albans has gotten just 0.10 inches of rain. If it doesn't rain tomorrow, I might have to consider irrigating some gardens. 

But that's an exception to the rule.  Most places are pretty wet. 

Still, I think we're out of the woods for tonight. Torrential downpours were still going on in the Northeast Kingdom as of 6 p.m., but those would move out soon.

Some thunderstorms developed in northern New York, but I think they will largely fade by the time they get to Vermont. 

Tomorrow is yet another literal rinse and repeat. Widely scattered showers in the morning will develop into numerous showers and storms by afternoon.  Once again, some will have locally torrential rain.  Since soils are much wetter now in much of the state, that somewhat increases the chances of local flash floods. 

If that happens, the flash floods would be pretty localized. Forecasts will be updated tomorrow, but at this point, it looks like if any flooding happens on Wednesday, the most likely zone would be the central and southern Green Mountains. 

It still looks like showers and storms will still roam Vermont Thursday and Friday, but they will be somewhat fewer and far between.  A few more heavy rainers look like they might be in the forecast Saturday through Monday, which could cause issues, but we'll jump  off that bridge when we get to it. 

Watching Vermont Storms/Heavy Rain/Flood Risk This Afternoon

For a glorious brief period late Monday morning, the
dense smoke from Sunday in St. Albans, Vermont 
cleared, revealing a tropical blue sky. But soon,
clouds filled in as showers kept skirting the area.

UPDATE:

1:30 p.m. TUESDAY

It looks like a conveyer belt of sorts of storms and heavy rain are starting to move south to north up the western half of Vermont. 

This raises the potential of the dreaded "training storms" in which heavy showers move over the same spots over and over again, like those boxcars I describe in the narrative below, which I wrote this afternoon.

It's just beginning, Hubbarton has so far reported an inch of rain, and I'm sure there were a few spots in southwestern Vermont that have already had a little more.

As of 1:30 p.m. this afternoon, there were no flood advisories, alerts or warnings in Vermont. But just over the border from Rutland County, a flood advisory has been issued for adjacent New York State, in the area around Whitehall, Fort Ann, Fort Edward, Comstock, that area.

Stay on your toes for the risk of local flash flooding today anywhere in Vermont. For now, the highest risk is from the spine of the Green Mountains westward.  You're not guaranteed to see flooding, but it could happen in some spots. 

Don't drive over water-covered roads, and stay out of flood prone area if your area does go under a flood advisory or flash flood warning. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

We're now into our expected very, very wet week here in Vermont and so far, it's....only kind of wet. 

The stalled, but volatile weather pattern is still one in which flash floods are a risk, with a somewhat lower, but still possible risk of isolated severe thunderstorms. 

Through Monday, the worst of everything seems to be going around us here in Vermont. We have had much trouble with either flooding or severe weather.  Not sure it will last or not, but maybe.  

STORMS THROUGH MONDAY

One thing you have to watch when we're in a very humid, slow moving weather regime is training storms. Those are torrential showers and thunderstorms that line up like boxcars on a railroad track. Each storm in the series goes over the same spot, unleashing flooding rains in a narrow band. 

These "training storms" in a worst case scenario can cause some pretty catastrophic floods over local areas. 

So far, at least, I haven't seen that kind of "training storms" since the wet weather arrived on Saturday. 

Such weather did affect places like Maine and New Hampshire. Nearly six inches of rain poured down on Andover, in western Maine in a short period of time Monday, washing out roads and causing property damage. 

Flash flood warnings went up in various places in New Hampshire both Sunday and Monday. Severe flood damage was reported in Alexandria, New Hampshire, about 15 miles east of Lebanon.  Other road washouts were noted in parts of the White Mountains. 

New Hampshire expects more trouble, as a flood watch is in effect for most of that state today.  No watches were up in Vermont as of 9 a.m. today. 

One flash flood warning went up in extreme southeastern Vermont last evening as heavy rain moved through. Jacksonville, Vermont reported two inches of rain in a short period of time. Still, I haven't seen any reports of any real flood damage in Windham County. 

Most of the storms in Vermont moved right along on Monday, not lingering over an area long enough to cause problems. A few storms were strong. A pretty intense thunderstorm gust took down a couple trees in Essex Junction, for instance.

WHAT ABOUT TODAY?

We're in for another active weather day, and I'm sure meteorologists will be paying close attention to radar to detect potential flood trouble or strong storms. 

The remnants of a cold front will be pushing into New York State today, focusing thunderstorms in the eastern part of that state and New England, including here in Vermont. 

A few showers were already underway here and there in Vermont early this morning.  They'll blossom and become much more numerous by this afternoon. Pretty much all of us will get some rain. A few of us will get very little, a few of us will get absolutely drenched, and the rest of us will be somewhere in between. 

There's no telling in advance, though, who gets what. 

A few isolated storms might have some strong, gusty winds, so be on the lookout for that. Most of us won't see anything that dramatic, but a few "lucky" people will.  Most of the strongest storms will probably be west of Lake Champlain in New York. 

The slightly bigger concern is that boxcar effect of training storms going over the same area over and over today.

You don't really know whether that will happen or where until it is underway.  So just keep an ear out for any flash flood warnings that might come out.  Most of us won't have that kind of problem.  If any flash flooding does happen, it's most likely in steep or hilly areas this afternoon and evening.

If storms don't arrange themselves into trains, we're in good shape. They'll be moving along quickly enough so they don't dump a super duper crapload of rain in any one place. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Wednesday's looking like a literal rinse and repeat sort of day, so expect more risks of local flooding here and there. And almost everybody will get wet again. 

Thursday looks showery, too, but there probably won't be as many showers as the last few days. Friday looks even better, with more sunshine. Showers and thunderstorms will probably be pretty few and far between to close out the week. 

It looks like we might have another uptick in showers and storms over the weekend. Oh, and by the way, if you don't like the current high humidity, too bad. It'll last at least a few more days. At least it's not super hot out there. 

 

Dense Northern Vermont Smoke Ending; Otherwise Little Change In Soggy Forecast. Floods Next?

Motorists make their way through thick haze along
Interstate 89 in Georgia Sunday. Wildfire smoke
from Canada created an air pollution problem in
northern Vermont. 

 The dense smoke from yesterday lingered overnight in northern Vermont, causing dangerously toxic air all night, but relief was beginning to settle in this morning. 

As of early this morning, most of the bad air had been flushed out, except in the Champlain Valley, where it seemed to be temporarily trapped. 

The bad Champlain Valley air should gradually improve over the course of this morning. Then we go back to our regularly scheduled programming of watching for possible flash floods here and there in Vermont all week. 

Let's get into the deets, first with the remarkable amount of wildfire smoke on Sunday

VERMONT POLLUTION EXTREME

To get you oriented, here's the air quality scale:

0-50 - Air is clean, 51-100, it's' moderate, 101-150 it's unhealthy for sensitive people, 151 to 200, it's unhealthy for all of us, and 201 and above it's very unhealthy for everyone and we should really just stay indoors. 

I saw reports from people last night saying their air pollution apps were registering as high as 269, so that's bad. Official readings from the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation at around 7:30 p.m. Sunday evening had the index at 215 in Burlington and 210 in Underhill.

Northern Vermont was truly one of the most polluted areas on Earth Sunday afternoon and night. 

Southern Vermont was never really affected by this. The air quality index at Bennington hovered at around 20 all day Sunday which is about as clean as you can get. 

Satellite photo taken around 5:30 p.m. Sunday shows
thick smoke over northern Vermont, but perfectly clean
air in far southern counties. It also shows a 
thunderstorm over Addison County, and more storms
over southwestern Vermont. 

Early this morning, east and southeasterly winds began to push the bad air northwestward out of the region. 

It looks like a temperature inversion was keeping the smoke in the Champlain Valley early this morning, though. The cleansing south winds couldn't yet dig down into the valley floor.  I notices the air quality in Underhill was quickly crashing early this morning.  It went from a kind of icky 132 at 6 a.m. to a very nice 40 by 6:30 a.m. 

Meanwhile, during that time, Burlington stayed stuck between 195 and 200. From my perch on a hill in St. Albans, the sky overhead was a nice blue, but there was still a bit of haze around my house, and you can see a thick brown cloud still covering the valley below. 

The temperature inversion should break up later this morning, and the Champlain Valley will clean out. That's not to say another smoke attack won't happen again this summer. Fires are still certainly burning in Canada, so there's nothing to stop the smoke from returning to Vermont if the wind is right. 

FLOOD RISK LOOMS

As we've been talking about for days now, a risk of local flash floods should be with us all week.  Already, a flash flood warning was issued for part of northwestern New Hampshire near the Vermont border last evening, and another flash flood warning was up for areas near Mount Washington, New Hampshire earlier this morning. 

That risk will spread into Vermont, probably starting today and lasting all week. 

At any given time, only small sections of Vermont will be under flash flood warnings. You'll probably see an alert from time to time covering just certain sections of Vermont counties, warning of possible flash flooding. 

During much of the time this week, there won't be any warnings at all, since these local floods will have short fuses.

It'll rain torrentially on a particular set of mountains, a big gush of water will come down the slopes from all the rain, the storm will dissipate and the water will quickly recede, having already done its damage.

Any flash floods we might get would probably be pretty small in area, but are quite dangerous. As the name suggests, they  happen in a flash. There's not much time to get out of the way.  If you're in a flood-prone area, this is a great week to stay on your toes and move quickly if you get a warning. 

If you're driving in a downpour and see a little water gathering on the road ahead, don't chance it.  Even if the water in that instance isn't enough to carry your vehicle away, the water could rise dramatically in seconds while you're trying to splash through it.  Not a good scenario. 

All of Vermont will get a lot of rain this week, but large sections of the state will escape any real flooding. It will be hit and miss.  If there's any flash flooding, it's most likely in the afternoons and evenings each day through the week. 

As expected, there wasn't much rain around Vermont this morning.  But as a disturbance riding through the big upper level low that's stuck to our west comes through, showers and storms will blossom this afternoon. 

They'll wane somewhat tonight, and redevelop Tuesday.  Tomorrow to me looks even potentially wetter than today.  Wednesday looks awfully soggy, too.  It won't rain all the time, but occasionally, it will really come down. 

The risk of flash flooding will grow as the week goes on as soil conditions get wetter and wetter from all the downpours.  I'm guessing that since most of the slow moving scattered showers and storms yesterday were in southern Vermont, that's the part of the state that seems most likely to have issues here and there today with high water. 

Where and whether any problems arise from tomorrow onward is anybody's guess

Northern Vermont Suffers Arguably Worst Wildfire Smoke Pollution In Memory

Smoke and haze reduced visibility on the Route 2 
causeway between Milton and South Hero,
Vermont Sunday afternoon. 

 A concentrated band of smoke from Canadian wildfires really settled into northern Vermont, along with parts of New Hampshire, Maine and Quebec today.  

The air quality index in Burlington rose to 195, which is considered unhealthy, and almost at the level of "very unhealthy."  Visibility dwindled to as little as two miles or less in the thick haze.

This all was on par with or probably worse than the two other great smoke outs in recent memory, in May, 2010 and July, 2002.  This was certainly worse than the June 6 smoke attack we endured. 

If you live in northern Vermont, I'd suggest staying indoors for the rest of the night. If you have air conditioning, all the better 

Far southern Vermont must have wondered what the fuss was about. Air quality there was just fine all day Sunday. 

A weak, barely perceptible cold front stalled across central Vermont today. The front acted as a sort of wall, damming up wildfire smoke to its north, while preventing it from seeping south much 

Scattered, torrential thunderstorms developed south of this front. A few were making it past the "wall" this evening, but that won't change the smoke conditions much.

We're stuck with the smoke tonight. But early tomorrow, barely noticeable winds first from the east, then southeast, will push the haze and pollution northwestward into southwestern Quebec and Ontario. Air quality is forecast to improve greatly during the day. 

Then, with that humid air flow in place, we'll see a serious uptick in showers and storms, some with torrential rain. As I mentioned this morning, we'll have to watch for local areas of flash flooding tomorrow and the rest of the week under any slow moving or persistent thunderstorms. 

I'll have more on this, and updates in Monday mornings' post. 

Deadly Texas Tornado Seemed More Chaotic Than Most

Image from Val and Amy Castors' live stream as they
drove in Matador, Texas immediately after a 
powerful tornado passed through. 

 Maybe it's because of the wide availability of immediate social media images, but the tragic tornado that struck the small town of Matador, Texas seemed especially chaotic and scary. 

The tiny town of about 570 residents was slammed Wednesday by a huge tornado coming in from the north. The storm killed four residents and left 10 others injured. Most of the western half of Matador was leveled.

The twister was wrapped with a thick curtain of torrential rain and hail, making the whole thing seem especially apocalyptic. 

The National Weather Service office in Lubbock, Texas said the parent thunderstorm developed explosively north of Matador and soon produced the tornado that trashed the town. A post-storm investigation revealed the tornado was a strong EF-3 with top winds of 165 mph.

The tornado was about a quarter mile wide and traveled 9.4 miles. Honestly, it was just badly located. 

The tornado had to be intense. The engine of a car was torn out of the vehicle and entire houses and buildings were leveled. Grass was scoured out of fields.

As a side note, I'm a little perplexed by whether people on Twitter upset and angry that the Matador tornado didn't get a higher rating.  Tornadoes are rated from EF-0 to EF-5, with EF-5 being the most intense -and rare.

The critics say they think the damage warranted an EF-4 or EF-5.  But the National Weather Service office in Lubbock worked with Texas Tech University National Wind Institute to estimate tornado wind speed based on structure damage in Matador. 

Of course, the rating doesn't really matter to the people in Matador who had to deal with the twister. 

 Adding to the chaos was large hail that accompanied the huge storm. Hailstones were as large as 4.5 inches in diameter, or about the size of a grapefruit. 

Video taken just as the tornado was leaving Matador appeared to show breaks in the clouds and winds and rain diminishing. That's pretty common in the moments immediately after a tornado passes.

But that was only a very brief interlude. Within perhaps two minutes, another supercell thunderstorm  intense hail and blinding, wind driven rain arrived just as rescuers began attempts to pull people from the wreckage. That turn of events is rather unusual and made the aftermath all the more hellish.

The second storm finally left Matador around 10 p.m, around two agonizing hours after the tornado hit. 

 Large tornadoes are common in the Texas Panhandle, but it's rare for two twisters within a month, never mind a week, to cause deaths in the region. 

A twister hit Perryton, Texas on June 15, killing three people and injuring about 50 others. 

The four deaths in Matador were the most from a single Texas tornado since 2015.

The Texas Panhandle has vast tracts of open land sparsely dotted by small towns and two larger cities, Amarillo and Lubbock.   t's very easy for a tornado to travel ten miles in the Texas panhandle without hitting anything important. So the Matador tornado was very bad luck. 

This isn't the first time a destructive tornado marauded through Matador. A twister in May, 1984 destroyed about 30 homes in Matador. 

Video: KWTV storm chasers followed the tornado into Matador, and were stunned to see the damage when they arrived in town. Very dramatic video. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: 

Sunday Wildfire Smoke Attack In Vermont To Partly Interrupt Very Wet Spell

The brassy hue of the sun cutting through the humidity
and fog at around 9:30 a.m. this morning was a 
signal that wildfire smoke from Canada was returning.

 We had our first really rainy day in what will be a long stretch of wet weather in at least part of Vermont today. 

The good news is for northern Vermont especially, today will be quite a bit drier than Saturday, as we're sort of between systems. 

The bad news is the very weak cold front that will at least partly interrupt the wet weather is bringing a boatload of smoke from Canadian wildfires into the northern half of Vermont today.  

This might well be the thickest smoke of the summer so far. Even worse than the thick smoke on June 6.  

An air quality alert is in effect for the northern half of Vermont this afternoon and evening. 

Meanwhile, some flood threats will linger all week in the Green Mountain State.

So let's get into the details of what happened, and what's going to happen

SATURDAY RAINS

The heaviest rains in Vermont Saturday seemed to focus on a stripe of northwestern Vermont from Burlington, north, contained in an area sandwiched between Interstate 89 and the spine of the Green Mountains. 

The most rain I saw from yesterday was 2.18 inches in Underhill. There were several reports of rainfall of well over an inch. 

Luckily, this same region will be among the drier spots today, with just low chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms. More on that next when we get into today's weather. 

TODAY: SMOKE AND SCATTERED DOWNPOURS

It was still oppressively humid early this morning across all of Vermont, but at least the air quality was terrific. 

That won't last. 

A weak cold front had just crossed the International Border this morning and will sink slowly into Vermont while dissipating. 

This will make the humidity go down a little, which will be a nice break.  It will also suppress thunderstorms and downpours across the north.  There still might be some, but they will be pretty few and far between north of Route 2.

Southern Vermont has a better chance of thunderstorms today. Since the air there will still be quite humid and any thunderstorms that form will move ever so slowly, there is a risk of some isolated instances of flash flooding. So we're not completely out of the woods.

Then there's the smoke. It'll be something of a glancing blow, but it will still create a lot of haze across the north. The closer you are to Canada, the worse it will be. Air quality alerts are also in effect for much of New Hampshire and Maine, and of course southern Quebec. 

 I wouldn't overexert too much outside today in northern areas. Between the moderately high humidity and the smoke, it ain't good for you. 

At least the worst of the smoke will have cleared out by tomorrow. But the rains return. And stick around. 

MONDAY

The number of showers and a few thunderstorms will begin to ramp up late tonight and early Monday, then really blossom in the afternoon. Virtually all of us will get rain. As usual, in most place, the amount of rain that falls will be perfectly manageable. But again, if storms go over the same spot over and over again, there could be an isolated flash flood threat.

The thunderstorms in general won't be severe, but there might be one or two instances of microbursts, which can really cause a lot of wind damage in very small areas. 

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

The weather pattern stays stalled, so it'll be daily round of torrential showers and thunderstorms amid humid air. This far in advance, you can't say precisely who will get the heaviest rain and the highest flash flood potential. 

In general, the most dangerous downpours will hit in the afternoons and evenings. As the soils get wetter and wetter through the week, the chances of flooding also creep up. Nobody is yet talking about widespread river flooding, since they're starting at pretty low levels now.

The problem is the torrents of water that can come roaring of steep slopes if the rain is especially torrential and persistent in any particular spot.  That's your local flash flood threat all week. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont and surrounding areas under at least some chance, albeit somewhat low chance, of flash flooding every day today through Thursday. It's quite unusual to have that threat in effect five days in a row. 

This state of affairs might even go beyond Thursday. Tropical Storm Cindy, or at least its remains, seems like it wants to head out of the tropics and make a beeline toward Nova Scotia toward Friday and Saturday. That would prevent the storminess over us from departing to our east, or at least delay its departure. 

And the weather pattern seems like it wants to continue more of the same into the opening days of July, but that of course is uncertain for now. 

Vermont Flash Flood Threat To Grow In Coming Days

Flash flood damage in Waitsfield, 
Vermont, June 1998. The 
upcoming week's weather pattern
reminds me a bit of conditions
in the early summer of 1998

 The forecast for locally  heavy rain over the next several days here in northern New England is causing growing concern for the risk of flash flooding as we go into next week. 

Daily chances of torrential downpours from slow moving showers and thunderstorms start today and last probably into Thursday. 

 As for today, a lot of us will see bursts of heavy rain, with most places seeing at least three quarter of an inch. However, meteorologists are concerned that a handful of places will be hit by a series of slow moving storms that would dump two inches or more of rain in a short period of time. 

That would be enough to cause ponding of water in low lying areas, and perhaps a few small areas seeing some flash flooding. 

Remember, even a small zone of flash flooding can be dangerous. If there's water on the road ahead of you, just turn around. You don't know how deep the water is, or if the road beneath the water has been washed out.

UPCOMING WEEK

As the rain comes each day, the ground gets wetter and wetter, and less able to absorb the runoff. 

Any flash flooding that develops in and around Vermont during the next week will be pretty localized.  Some counties could have real trouble, and others will get off almost scot free.

It's also pretty much impossible to know when and if any flash floods start until just before it happens or while it has already started. 

Because of the scattered nature of the heaviest storms, total rainfall for the next seven days in Vermont will range from as little as two or three inches in the very "driest" locations to well over five inches in other spots  Each day, there's a risk of two inches or more of rain in just a few hours in some towns. 

This is beginning to remind me of the late spring and early summer of 1998 in Vermont. Back then, and today, we're in the opening phases of a global El Nino weather pattern.

In 1998, just as in 2023 the spring was on the dry side.  Then in June, 1998, a series of torrential storms caused some serious flash flooding, especially in central Vermont.  Flooding was especially intense and destructive along the Mad River in Warren and Waitsfield, and the New Haven River in and near Bristol.

The 1998 Vermont flood was part of a bout of widespread severe weather and flooding in the Northeast. In the upcoming week, it'll be the similar to that. Vermont is not the only place facing a flood risk.  Most of New England and parts of the Middle Atlantic States that will get drenched, too.

I don't mean to be overly alarming.  The 1998 floods is just a gnarly example of what a worst case scenario for the upcoming week would look like.  Things probably won't get as bad as they did during that summer weekend a quarter century ago.

Still, the weather over the week needs to be watched carefully. "Everyone, but especially decision makers and residents of known poor drainage and flash flooding areas need to monitor future forecasts," meteorologists wrote in this morning's forecast discussion page from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.

The extent of the heavy rain will vary day to day over the next week, with some days being real soakers and some not so bad. On some days it might be southern Vermont that gets the real blast of rain, other days in might be the north. 

The only real consistency is that the heaviest rain and the larger threats of flash flooding would come in the afternoons and evenings. That said, trouble could still come at any time of day or night, so you'll need to stay on your toes.

Video:

Images of the June, 1998 flood in and near Bristol, Vermont.  Turn the sound down a little as the background music might be a bit much. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Perfect Vermont Summer Weather Ends, Looong Stretch Of Downpours, Humidity Coming

Deep blue skies Thursday over St. Albans, Vermont on a
perfect summer day.  We won't be seeing anything like
this again for quite awhile. 

 If there were a DoorDash type of business in which you could order in the kind of weather you want, and I ordered a perfect summer day, you'd end up with Thursday. 

Thursday was a strong candidate for the best Vermont weather day or Summer '23. 

 It was warm enough to enjoy a dip in the lake, but the humidity was so low that you'd feel cool and refreshed after your dip. 

It was also mild and dry enough so that a hike up, say Camels Hump would be perfect. I imagine some of last week's mud would have dried up by now. 

There was enough of a slight breeze to power a sailboat, but not nearly enough wind to make Lake Champlain choppy y or dangerous. 

The sky was a brilliant blue, with just a hint of haze to remind you it's summer. High pressure blocked clouds from coming up from the south, and also blocked Canadian wildfire smoke from smothering out the azure sky. 

I hope you liked Thursday. You're not going to see anything like that for quite awhile. Expect a long stretch of humidity, clouds and rain. Some of that rain could down pretty hard. 

Let's get into the details:

HUMIDITY

Savor the last bit of dry air this Friday morning, we're in for what might be a week of oppressive weather. As our nice dry, clear high pressure system departs, south winds will gradually bring the  humidity in today.  By this evening,  you'll feel it.   

There won't really be any hot weather with our upcoming stretch of Louisiana style humidity. We'll have too many clouds, showers and thunderstorms for anything heat wave-ish. But the humidity will be very noticeable, especially at night. 

A good way to judge how humid it is to to look at the dew point. The dew point is the temperature to which the air must be cooled to become fully saturated with water vapor. 

If the dew point is under 60 degrees, like it was over the last few days, it feels pretty comfortable out there. Between 60 and 65 it feels kind of sticky.  Anything over 65 is just plain yuck. 

It's looking like most of the time tonight through the middle of next week will have dew points at or above 65 degrees. 

Usually by this time of year, we've already had a few spells of at least sort of humid weather, to get us acclimated to wet air. Not this year. It's been mostly dry, dry air. Except when it rained. But until now, the rain came with cool temperatures. 

With the lack of humidity so far, this muggy spell will definitely feel like a wet slap in the face. Especially since it will last so long. We can handle one or two days. But I'm sure a week of this will get tiring. 

With all the expected clouds, daytime highs will be in the 75 to 82 degree range for the next several days. That's about where they should be this time of year. But overnight lows will stay in the 60s to low 70s for most of us. That's warm compared to normal. 

LOTS OF RAIN

The next aspect of this upcoming stalled weather pattern is rain.  Since our friendly high pressure system is a little reluctant to depart today, I don't think you'll see any rain drops in Vermont today.

But you definitely will see that rain, starting late tonight. 

Yesterday, forecasters were telling us to expect rain every day Saturday through Wednesday. This morning, they're hinting that rain might go beyond next Wednesday and extend all the way to next weekend. 

It won't rain all the time during this stretch. But there will be lots of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoons and evenings. 

Last weekend's rains dented but did not destroy what had been a developing drought in Vermont.  The rain a week ago cut in half the size of the area in northern Vermont considered in drought. Now it's just 10 percent of the state, mostly in Lamoille and eastern Franklin counties. Two-thirds of the state is considered to still be on the dry side. 

If the current forecast pans out, we'll see a lot more damage to the dry conditions, which of course is great news. 

Over the next seven days, it looks like we'll generally see two to as much as four inches of rain in Vermont. That would put June's total rainfall above normal, which is a surprise given how dry we started out this month. 

FLOODING?

With all this rain, there's actually some risk of flooding. It won't be anything widespread, and we're definitely not going to get anything like 2011's Hurricane Irene disaster.

However, if some unlucky towns have thunderstorms plowing through day after day, then have a train of them come through one after another during an afternoon and evening during the upcoming week, you can get a nasty local flash flood. 

Something to watch out for, definitely.  You won't know if or where there will be flash flooding until it's happening, or shortly beforehand. Just stay aware of warnings if you're in a flood prone spot over the course of the next week

SEVERE WEATHER?

Though we expect lots of thunderstorms - and you should always respect lightning - at least at this point, it doesn't look like there will be any widespread severe thunderstorms.

However, the weather pattern does make us prone to wet microbursts. The term sound like it refers to a small water balloon popping, but that isn't it. 

A microburst starts when a strong updraft suspends a lot of rain and some hail up in the cloud.  Then the  updraft abruptly fades, so all that rain and hail rushes to the ground in one great big whoosh. When it hits the ground, the wind spreads out.  Places near where the down rush hits the ground get strong, damaging winds. 

It's called a microburst because the damage area is usually quite small, almost always less than 2.5 miles diameter and often much smaller than that. 

The types of thunderstorms we're expecting in the coming days have the potential to contain microbursts.  But since the areas suffering damage from this phenomenon is small, the vast majority of us will be just fine.

WHEN WILL IT DRY OUT?

The short answer is, we don't know.  Some forecasts push a cold front into Vermont by next Thursday, which would help.  But other forecasts have strong high pressure off the East Coast, which would prevent that cold front from reaching us, or at least slow it down. 

The only thing I can say for sure is get used to the humidity and showers. You're going to have to. 

Colorado Concert Venue Hailstorm Injures Nearly 100; Performance Should Have Been Canceled MUCH Earlier

Hail drifts cover a walkway at the Red Rocks
Amphitheatre near Denver Wednesday night
after the storm injured dozens

 Nearly 100 people were injured, including seven who needed hospitalization, when a hail storm struck the famed Red Rocks Amphitheatre near Denver Wednesday. 

This might be one the biggest hail storm injury events in U.S. history, the Washington Post reported. 

The show, featuring Louis Tomlinson, was stopped as hailstones, the biggest ones about the size of tennis balls, pelted the crowd. .

Video taken during the storm showed chaos. People screamed in pain as hail bruised their bodies.  After the storm, hail drifts several inches deep covered parts of the site. 

The concert will probably be rescheduled, but that rescheduling probably should have happened before people even began gathering for the show. 

True, I'm Monday morning quarterbacking, but the signs were there that potential danger loomed.

First of all, the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies are famous for the volatile weather around there. 

Even management at Red Rocks acknowledged this in a Tweet after the disaster. "....we're having a little talk with Mother Nature about this weather business at Red Rocks. Between a wind-whipped opening night wildfire, snow showers, torrential rains and hail, it's been a crazy six weeks in the foothills."

Large outdoor venues at least should have some experts on staff working with meteorologists to ensure public safety.  Summer is chock full of festivals like concerts, fairs and large gatherings. Summer is also known for its severe thunderstorms, high wind, hail and lightning, which can develop pretty quickly

Having an event you've looked forward to for months abruptly canceled due to weather just before it starts is a terrible bummer, to put in mildly.  But you have to consider that being injured or even dying at the show due to the weather just ain't worth it. 

And people have died during severe weather events at outdoor venues. One of the most memorable and tragic examples was in 2011, when a severe thunderstorm blew stage scaffolding and other large debris into a crowd awaiting a Sugarland concert. Seven people died and 58 were injured. 

STORMS LOOMED HOURS BEFORE

Concert organizers should be nimble on their feet. Should being the operative word. 

As early as 3:49 p.m. Wednesday local time, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center released a short-term forecast concerning a severe thunderstorm watch that was already in effect for the area. "Large hail, (some 2+ inches in diameter is the primary threat, though severe gusts may occur," the statement said. 

Professor Ben Alonzo, who, among many other things is a meteorologist and EMT, had a great thread about the incident on Twitter.

Radar images Alonzo shared showed several severe thunderstorm, including one that just barely missed Red Rocks not long before the show. 

The thunderstorm that deposited the hail on concertgoers arrived at the venue at around 9:20 p.m local time. A severe thunderstorm warning had been issued for the Red Rocks area about 20 minutes prior. 

The Washington Post said the severe thunderstorm warning was issued at 9:04 p.m., but the concert  venue didn't tell people to take shelter until 9:14 p.m. 

Of course, that's not a lot of time to send people to shelter before the storm hit. Apparently, people were also reluctant to get up and go to their cars.  They assumed the concern would resume once the storm passed, and they didn't want to lose their good seats.

Perhaps the concert should have been canceled at that initial severe thunderstorm warning, since nobody would then have the incentive to stay in their open air seats. 

Alonzo also points out a good outdoor venue should had an experienced meteorologist on staff who could have understood the danger from the storm before the official severe thunderstorm warning was issued. 

Moreover, lightning within nine miles of Red Rocks from numerous thunderstorms in the area started at around 7:15 p.m, WaPo reports.  Lightning can strike up to 15 miles away from the parent storm, so people were already in danger two hours before the hail.  

A good safety plan would have postponed or canceled the concert and told people to seek shelter by 7:30 p.m, when the lightning was underway. 

Of course, we don't have all the details yet of what happened and how decisions were made, so we'll see with updates.  

The City of Denver owns Red Rocks. I imagine lawsuits are inevitable. That the venue is owned by a municipality will probably complicated those legal proceedings. 

Video: Denver 7 collected clips of the storm at Red Rocks. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that:

Global Temperature Checkup: May Was World's Third Hottest

Lots of red again. Most of the world was warmer than
average in May.  Ranked as third hottest on record.

 As we do every month, let's check in with NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information to see how the previous months climate did across the globe.  

As always, the news is lousy.  May, 2023 was the world's third hottest month, at least during the past 174 years of records. 

The first five months of 2023 combined were the fourth warmest overall.  This pretty much already guarantees that this year will once again be among the top ten warmest on record. 

Climate change continues apace. 

I say this every single month when I do this update, but it's worth saying again, just because it's so dramatic. If you're under the age of 47, you have never seen a month on Earth that was cooler than the long term average.

The world's oceans, along with both North and South America, had their hottest May on record. The Earth's southern hemisphere was why the world as a whole "only" had its third hottest May.  That southern hemisphere logged just its 23rd warmest May out of the past 174 of 'em. 

The hottest areas of the world, at least compared to historical averages, was virtually all of Canada (no wonder they have so many wildfires!); much the northern tier of the United States;  southwestern and northeastern Europe and most of South America. 

The few relatively chilly areas included a large chunk of India, parts of southern China, central Australia and substantial parts of Antarctica.

Looking at just the United States, we had the 11th warmest May out of the last 129 years. The northwestern quarter of the nation was very warm. Washington had its warmest year on record and seven other states in the northwest/Northern Rockies had one of their top ten warmest. 

The Southeast was cool, with South Carolina reporting its 10th coldest May on record. 

I remember being struck an odd temperature pattern in Vermont for May, which featured warm days and chilly nights. The NCEI data back me up.  The Green Mountain State had its 18th coldest average minimum temperatures for May, but somewhat warmer than normal highs, ranking 54th out of 129 years. 

 As of May 31, the United States was up to nine weather disasters each costing at least $1 billion. These do not include the near-constant storms in the southern United States so far this June. These disasters cost 99 lives and have caused at least $23 billion in damage.

June data will be available in mid-July or so. Not sure if the United States will be warmer than average, but I do know the world as a whole will be on the hot side.  A series of epic heat waves have already hit large swaths of Asia, Canada and Central America, to name just a few hot places so far this month. 

Bizarre June Weather Pattern Leads To Destructive Storms, Floods, Dangerous Heat, Frost and Tropical Storm

Tornado damage in Moss Glen, Mississippi this week.
An strange jet stream pattern is causing extreme
weather across the U.S.

 The jet stream, that ribbon if high speed air aloft that encircles the globe, tends to get boring in the summer. 

The big southward dips and northward bulges you see in the colder months tend to flatten out. So in the summer, you tend to get just minor weather systems. 

Oh. sure. you get big heat waves, some severe storms and flash floods in the summer. But you usually don't get a series of large scale events like you do in the winter.

Except this month. Meteorologists are astonished by the dramatic dips and bulges and cut off lows that have repeated set up this month. And will continue to do so. 

There's a big dip in the West, causing some late season mountain snows, crop-damaging freezes and a smattering of record lows in some areas along and west of the Continental Divide. 

Then a northward bulge, a "heat dome" has become intense over Texas and adjacent Mexico, causing dangerous, all time record high temperatures along with intense humidity. 

Meanwhile, in the East, a big dip in the jet stream, accompanied by stalled upper level lows, keep forming over the Great Lakes or eastern U.S. 

This is causing some pretty unprecedented weather for this time of year. 

Plus, a minor adjustment in this pattern has big implications for us here in Vermont over the next few days. More on that in a moment. 

TEXAS HEAT

Arguably the most dangerous aspect of this pattern is the heat in Texas and Mexico. Several all time record highs for any time in the year were established in southern and central Texas on Tuesday. 

Those include 118 at Rio Grande Village, 115 at Laredo and 114 at San Angelo. The San Angelo record bested the old all time record high by a full three degrees, which is pretty impressive when you're talking about all-time highs. 

The Texas heat is expected to grind on well into next week. Highs in many places will easily top 100 degrees with heat indexes in the 110s and possibly 120s.

This heat wave comes, as I wrote yesterday, as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signed legislation banning municipality from imposing water and cooldown breaks for construction workers. 

Meanwhile, temperatures in nine Mexican states reached 113 or higher on Tuesday.  Several deaths have been already reported in Mexico due to the heat.

SOUTHEAST STORMS

The Southeast is recovering from a spate of highly unusual June tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Big outbreaks of tornadoes in the South are rare after early May, except when a tropical storm comes ashore, which isn't the case here. 

At least six people have died in the tornadoes, which left widespread destruction from Louisiana to Florida. 

The severe weather has died down somewhat, but storms with very heavy rain are continuing in the Southeast. Flooding has been increasing, and that threat of high water should last into next week at least. 

NORTHEAST/VERMONT EXTREMES

The cut off lows in the East during late May and early June were too far south to do us in Vermont any good. So we got too dry, and it appeared a drought was developing. 

At midmonth, these stalled or slow moving systems came closer to us, creating some very welcome rains.  Much of Vermont received two to as much as five inches of rain in the week ending Saturday.

We're getting a sunny, dry break this week in which this dip in the jet stream is re-loading with a couple new cut-off upper level storm.

These next two are positioned a little differently than recent ones, a little further west and south. This will open the door to a flood of very humid air starting Friday and lasting into next week. 

This situation means we will have plenty of showers and embedded thunderstorms through the weekend and into next week. Some of those will have torrential downpours, and some of them will move quite slowly. 

So, after our drought scare, we actually have the threat of local flash flooding starting this weekend and going into next week. At this point I don't see any large scale problems in the Green Mountain State, but some unlucky spots could see creeks and brooks rage out of control if a storm stalls or repeatedly hits any hilly terrain. 

It's unclear whether or where these flash floods might happen, but it's something to keep an eye on. 

TROPICAL STORMS

 This isn't quite related to our bizarre jet stream, but one tropical storm has formed in an area of the Atlantic Ocean that normally sees no activity until at least August. And a second tropical storm seems set to form in the same area.

This has to do with the record warm Atlantic Ocean waters I mentioned the other day.  The first storm, Tropical Storm Bret, has maximum winds of 60 mph and could get a little stronger as it approaches the Lesser Antilles in the next few days. 

Luckily, as Bret heads into the Caribbean Sea over the weekend, strong upper level winds should weaken it.

The second tropical storm should form within a day or two. It's too soon to tell how strong it will get or where it will go.

CLIMATE CHANGE?

Scientists think that climate change might be making the jet stream wavier, weirder and more prone to stalls, which fits in with what's going on now. Climate change probably is part of the story, but not the whole thing. 

We're transitioning into a global El Nino pattern, which features warm water in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Often, when this happens, it really messes with the jet stream, and that's what might well be goin on now.