March Was World 2nd Warmest, Possibly Signaling New Hot Push, U.S., As Expected Shattered March Heat Records

March, 2026 was tied for the second warmest on
record on Earth. With an El Nino coming,
the month's temperatures could be a signal
that unprecedented hot times could
be on their way.

 The global temperatures in March were back to their old tricks, going back to second hottest on record after several months of "cooler" months that were only in third place in the hottest months list.

Even hotter, more dangerous times might be ahead in the coming months or year or two. 

Actually this March barely squeaked into second place. It was virtually tied with March, 2024. The National Centers for Environmental Information continues: 

"All March global temperature departures ranking in the top 10 during the period 1850-2026 have occurred since 2015. This month marked the 50th consecutive March with a global temperature departure above the 20th century average."

The March, 2026 global temperatures might represent an ominous reversal in ever-so-slightly cooler trends we saw over the past year or so.  La Nina, which tends to cool the global climate, put a stop to a month after month stretch of almost continuous record global heat in 2023 and 2024.

Starting last June, most months were the third warmest on record. That's scary enough, since La Nina could barely put the most unnoticeable dent in the effects of climate change. The effects of La Nina might have peaked this past winter. December, January and February were all the world's fifth warmest, respectively. 

La Nina has faded and it loos like El Nino - which generally warms the global atmosphere - might be developing. It could be a strong one, and that could send the world's temperatures skyrocketing to new, dangerous heights by next year. 

The higher the global temperatures, the higher the risk of killer heat waves, worst droughts, increasingly torrential floods and more intense, less predictable storms. 

THE DETAILS

As always in this age of climate change, cold spots were hard to find in March.  However, there was a notable very cold area in Alaska and the Yukon Territory of Canada. That area was much colder relative to average than we usually see in these monthly reports. 

The only other slightly chilly areas I could find on the NCEI maps were small areas in northwest Africa, Antarctica, the extreme southeastern Pacific ocean and northwestern Siberia.  And what is now almost a perennial area of coolness hovered over an area of the North Atlantic a little south of Greenland. 

Also, although March as a whole in Australia wasn't cold, a sharp frigid snap at the end of the month shattered decades-old March temperature records in many cities, NCEI reports. Two Australian cities reported all-time record lows. 

The most wild hot spot relative to average was the contiguous United States. I'll have more on that below. Other really notable hot spots relative to average were in the entire Arctic (north of that Alaskan cold spot), northern and eastern Europe, large areas of Asia and spots across Africa and Antarctica.

Year to date, the first three months of 2026 is so far the fourth warmest year on record. It's almost certain this year will be among the top 10 warmest on record and likely among the top five. 

As is usually the case for March, Arctic sea ice extent reached its maximum extent of the year on the 15th. It wasn't that extensive. The ice covered 5.52 million square miles, statistically tied with last year for the smallest maximum in the 48 years satellite have been keeping track, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. 

UNITED STATES

The contiguous United States was exceptionally 
warm in March, breaking records from 
coast to coast. We'll see if it's a harbinger
 of a torrid summer. 

As we have been reporting, March, 2026 was ridiculously, insanely hot in the Lower 48. Now we have the final receipts.  

NCEI tells us: 

"The average temperature over the contiguous US (CONUS), in March was 50.85 degree F, 9.35 degrees F above average, ranking as the warmest March in the 132-year record. This marks the first time any month's average temperature has exceeded 9 degrees F above its 20th-century baseline. It also includes the warmest 12-month period on record for the CONUS (April, 2025-March 2026)"

Even more remarkably, the nations average high temperature during March was 64.4 degrees, an incredible 11.4 degrees above the 20th century average. That super warm March average daily maximum was actually 0.9 degrees warmer than the average April high. 

 Ten states had their warmest March on record. They were all large states in the southwestern United States, so those made up about a quarter on the United States. Included those ten, 35 states had one of their top 10 warmest Marches on record. 

Put another way, more than 500 counties, covering more than one quarter of the Lower 48 and affecting about 79 million people, recorded their warmest March on record, NCEI tell us. 

The "coldest" state was Maine, but even they were well above normal.  Maine had their 33rd warmest March out of the past 132 years. Vermont was one of a handful of other very warm but not super warm states. The Green Mountain State had its 19th warmest March. 

Mostly because of the continuing record high temperatures in the Southwest and Rockies all year so far, January-March is also the hottest on record. 

There was one particular cold spot in the United States: Alaska. The state had its fourth coldest March out the past 102 years. The last time Alaska had a March that cold was in 1972.

The heat, relative to average, diminished a little in the United States in April, so I'm guessing we'll get a break in the month after month reports of record warmth. 

The United States also had its eight driest March on record. In general, the states that were the warmest in March were also the driest. California had its driest March on record. Eight other states in the Southwest and Southeast had one of their top ten driest Marches.

The only really wet areas was around the eastern Great Lakes. Michigan had its third wettest March. Here in Vermont, March precipitation was right around average.  

It'll be an interesting to see whether March was a prelude to an extraordinarily hot summer, or just another month that really went off the rails. 

Like Every Month Lately, Hot Times Continued For World In March, Which Was 3rd Hottest. U.S. Hot, Too!

As always in this age of climate change, it was
hard to find cool spots on Earth as March came
in as the globe's third hottest on record. 

 As we do every month, we're checking in with the global climate checkup for the previous month, and as always, we endured hot times in March. 

March, 2025 turned out to be the third hottest on record for Earth. 

Thanks in part to the now-definitely fading away La Nina, which cools the Earth a little, we've temporarily stopped having record hot months over and over again. Instead, we're "merely" scoring in the top five, usually top three or two.

This temporary "cooling" if you can call it that, means that at this point 2025 only has a 6 percent chance of besting last year as the world's hottest on record. 

These "nearly hottest" months we've had this year are still obviously bad news since it's a sign that climate change is continuing unfettered, despite influences that would normally cool Earth just a wee bit. 

If you are under the age of 49, you've never seen a March that was close in temperatures to the 20th century average. They've all been warm since 1977.

Unless there's something awful like a major meteor hit or global nuclear war, you'll never again see a month or year that is close to the temperatures we usually saw four or five decades ago. 

The hottest spots on Earth, relative to average, were the Arctic, Alaska, the eastern and central United States, most of Europe, northwest Africa and Australia. 

If you were looking for relative cool spots, they were - as usual - few and far between, but you would have found them in central Canada, eastern Greenland, parts of eastern Asia and chunks of Antarctica.

Those areas weren't really much cooler than what the pre-industrial average was, but were definitely chillier than the average of the past 30 years, which of course had been warmed by climate change. 

As previously reported, Arctic sea ice was at its lowest level on record for March. 

UNITED STATES

The Lower 48 in the U.S. had a decidedly warm March - its sixth warmest on record. 

All states came out definitely on the warm side except California and Florida, which were a little closer to the long term average. . 

Eighteen states had one of their top ten warmest Marches on record in 2025. Vermont as a whole was listed as having had its 13th warmest March on record. However, in Burlington, specifically, the state's main weather station tied for the sixth warmest March.

If you averaged out precipitation through the Lower 48  it comes out fair to middling, ending up close to the long term average. 

Though overall March was near normal for U.S. precipitation, as usual, some spots were extra wet, while others were especially dry.   

Wisconsin and Michigan had among their wettest Marches on record. West Virginia had its fifth driest March on record.

Here in Vermont, we had our 38th wettest March out of the past 131 years, so nothing extreme here. 

Though the United States as a whole wasn't particularly rainy, it was a stormy month. The United States had 296 tornadoes in March, close to if not the most on record for the month. 

Global And U.S. September Were Super Warm Again, New Data Shows

Once again in September, 2024, it was hard to find 
cool places on a warming Earth. It was the second
warmest September on record, breaking a 15-
month streak of record warm months. 

 Now that we're getting climate reports again from NOAA, we can take a look at what happened in the United States and the world during September.  

To nobody's surprise, it was hot everywhere. Globally, September was the second hottest on record.  

That September was "only" the second hottest ended a 15-month streak of record warm global temperatures, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).     

The September reports were delayed because NCEI is located in Asheville, North Carolina. That city was ravaged by catastrophic flooding from Hurricane Helene in September. 

While the NCEI building was not damaged, the collapse of the city's infrastructure meant that NCEI could not collect data, or disseminate it.

NCEI is the largest environmental and climate data center in the world, and its servers need tons of cooling water from Asheville's municipal supply. The city's water plant was destroyed by Helene, and the city is only now restoring water service to everyone.

So things are looking  up, and we are getting data.  

GLOBAL DATA

First, let's look at the world.

As noted, September globally was the second warmest, just behind the mark set last year.  Still, 2024 now stands a 99.8 percent chance of becoming the world's warmest year on record, according to NCEI.

The familiar trend line continues. As NCEI states:

"September, 2024 marked the 50th consecutive September with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average and the 547th consecutive month with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th century average. The past eleven Septembers (2014-2024) have been the warmest Septembers on record."

The warmest areas relative to average were most of North and South America, most of Europe. In particular, eastern Canada, eastern Europe, the Caribbean and a large chunk of Southeast Asia.

As has been the case in recent years, cool spots were few and far between. Somewhat cool areas, relative to average were in extreme western Europe, parts of Greenland and Iceland, south central Russia, Kazakhstan, parts of southern Africa and a good chunk of Antarctica. 

 UNITED STATES

Following the lead of the world, the U.S. also had its second warmest September on record.

September was the United States' second warmest
on record. Year to date is warmest on record.

Arizona, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota had their warmest September on record.  

Here in Vermont, NCEI listed us as having the eleventh warmest September on record. It depends where you were in the state, of course. Burlington measured its fourth warmest September. 

Nobody in the United States had a cool September, though several states in the Southeast were fairly close to normal for the month. 

The twelve month period ending in September has also been the warmest on record for the United States. 

One other way to look at the relative warmth of September and the year as a whole is to inspect how many daily record highs and lows were set at thousands of weather stations across the U.S.

In September, we saw 1,734 record highs and 573 record lows. Through September 30, the nation had 23,169 record highs and 8,882 record lows.

Helping to set the stage for the drought now expanding in the United States, September was on the dry side, coming in at 40th driest out of 130 years of record. Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska had their driest Septembers on record. Connecticut,  Delaware, Maine, Michigan, New Jersey, South Dakota and Wisconsin had one of their top ten driest Septembers.

DISASTERS

As of October 1, the number of weather disasters in the U.S. this year costing at least $1 billion is now up to 24. The only year that was worse was last year, when there were 27 such disasters through mid-October.

As you might expect, Hurricanes Helene and Milton have been added to the list of billion dollar disasters. We know each storm cost at least that much, and certainly more, but final cost estimates are not in yet. 

July Was (Somewhat Surprisingly) The World's 14th Consecutive Record Hottest Month

Very few places on Earth cooler than the 20th century
average through July, 2024.

Data came out this week that shows July was the 14th consecutive month that was the hottest on record for Planet Earth. 

The hottest July ranking was a bit of a surprise among experts. El Nino, which tends to boost global temperatures on top of the warmth of climate change,  has ended.  Chances were, at least according to the experts who watch these things, that July, 2024 would "only" be the second or third hottest.

But nope!  July was the hottest.

There are signs that this long streak of record hot months are ending. Global sea surface temperatures were only the second warmest on record. That ends a 15-month streak in which sea temperatures were record hot. 

Despite continued record heat waves around the world, it's questionable as to whether August will turn out to be another hottest month. It could be close.

After all, climate change sure isn't ending. 

And the last few months of the year could well end up being just a smidge cooler than the final months of 2023. The National Centers for Environmental Information says there's a 77 percent chance that 2024 will be the hottest year on record for Earth. There's a 100 percent chance it will score in the top five, as you might expect.  

Just under 14 percent of the Earth's surface had a record hot month, which is pretty impressive.

Once again, it was hard to find places on Earth that were cooler than what was average in the 20th century. The only places I could find that were ever so slightly chilly were southern South America, a spot west of the Korean Peninsula, another tiny spot between Alaska and Russia, and a small area in the central United States.  

The trend toward warmer months started decades ago, thanks to the release of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels that have made the world all-too toasty. If you are under the age of 48, you have never seen a July on Earth that was at least a little cooler than the 20th century average. 

UNITED STATES

The western and eastern United States were very
hot in July, 2024, but the middle of the nation
caught a break. 

In the United States, July turned out to be just the 11th hottest on record. California and New Hampshire had their hottest July on record. Another 18 states, including Vermont had one of their top ten hottest Julys. 

And as I wrote the other day, many cities on the West Coast and some in the East also had a record hot July.  

But the areas in the middle of the nation were cooler, partly offsetting the overall warmth in the United States. 

Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana were actually a bit cooler than average. They got a break from what was widely expected to be a hot July in that region. 

DISASTERS

Weather and climate disasters costing at least $1 billion in the United States continue to pile up. Four more such calamities were added to the list. They include Hurricane Beryl in Texas (no word if subsequent floods in Vermont and elsewhere in the Northeast also made the cut); New Mexico wildfires in June and July, and hail storms centered in and around Colorado on May 31-June 1. 

We now have a total of 19 weather and climate disasters so far in 2024 that cost at least $1 billion. 

This type of mega-expensive disaster is getting more common. The average annual of inflation-adjusted yearly billion dollar disasters between 1980 and 2023 is 8.5.  The average number in the most recent five years, i.e. 2019 to 2023 was 20.4 such events, says the National Centers for Environmental Information. 

It's pretty much a lock, then, that 2024 will have an above average number of these calamities. We don't know yet if Hurricane Debby cost $1 billion. Or if the massive Park Fire in California or other big wildfires burning out there will also cost more than $1 billion. 

Plus, hurricane season is still very young. Hurricanes making landfall in the United States tend to cause a lot of damage. (The latest hurricane, Ernesto, caused damage in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, but is expected to have little effect on mainland U.S.). 

Other than the western wildfires, there doesn't appear to be any mega-storms or climate disasters on the horizon in the United States for at least the next few days. But the way things are going, you never know.  

March Was World's 10th Consecutive Record Hot Month

I'm sounding a bit like a broken record here, but for the 10th month in a row, I'm telling you the world just had a new record for warmest March,  at least since they started keeping track of such things.   

Another very red global climate map, another
record warm month in March, 2024 for Planet Earth. 

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information said this March was just a hair above the previous record set in 2016. This was the 48th consecutive March that was warmer than the long term average. 

The data sets for NCEI goes back 175 years, so we know it's was the hottest March since at least 1850.  But climate scientists believe the last time the world was this warm was about 125,000 years ago. 

Before my time, that's for sure. 

NCEI says there's a 55 percent chance this year will outdo 2023 and become the world's hottest year on record. There's a 99 percent chance it'll be among the top five warmest.

The reason NCEI gives this year about a 50-50 chance of being hottest despite the first three months breaking records by pretty big margins is El Nino.

Or rather the demise of it. El Nino is rapidly falling apart, to be replaced by La Nina.  

La Nina on balance cools the Earth slightly. That means subsequent months this year might not break new record for hottest ever. Because of climate change, though, months going forward will be among the hottest on record, no matter what happens with La Nina.

With El Nino rapidly fading, you can see cracks in the 10-month long stretch of global record warmth.  Oceans were the warmest on record in March, but land areas were just fourth warmest. But combine oceans and land, you still get a record warm March on Earth. 

As in the previous ten months, very warm conditions relative to average covered huge areas of the globe. These include almost all of Africa, Europe and South American, along with eastern North America, eastern Asia and eastern Australia.

You'd be hard-pressed to find anyplace that was cooler than average in March.  Cool areas relative to average were pretty much limited to  parts of Antarctica, which is interesting, western Australia and a little patch of the North Atlantic just south of Iceland.

That cool patch off of Iceland is not a good sign. This "cold blob" has been often re-appearing in this region for the better part of a decade now. 

There are conflicting theories on this. Some of it could be cold fresh water melting off of Greenland in ever-greater quantities.  Cold, salty water is dense, so it sinks, and warmer water goes over the top of it. But cold fresh water doesn't sink like salty water does, so that could be part of the issue.

However, the cold blob is often there in the winter, when there is virtually no melting from Greenland. 

Increased winds in the region might also encourage the cold blob. However, scientists say those higher regional winds are also a sign of climate change. 

As usual, other climate monitoring organizations agreed closely with NCEI. 

The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service last Tuesday released their assessment, also with the news that March globally was the warmest on record. 

The Washington Post's account of Tuesday's Copernicus report has a Vermont connection worth noting. The hotter air, the fact that the Atlantic Ocean has heated up so much, has implications for us in the coming months, even if upcoming months turn out to be not quite the hottest ever.

Says WaPO:

"'It should be eye-catching - we are going toward uncharted territory,' said Gillian Gilford, the lead of the Vermont Climate Assessment and a professor at the University of Vermont who reviewed the report. 'It's rather unusual we see such an increased temperature over months and seasons.'

She added that the warmer waters of the Atlantic in particular can lead to larger storms and a more intense hurricane season. It's could also lead, she said, to more storms dumping more water in places like Vermont, in the northeastern United States, which saw intense flooding last summer."

Warmer ocean water adds additional moisture to the atmosphere, which can blow inland and crate serious floods. 

To calm fears, I must say the hot Atlantic is no guarantee Vermont will see additional big floods this spring and summer. Specific weather patterns would need to draw that super saturated air our way. 

We don't know what will happen this summer. For all we know, we in Vermont could have a dry summer if persistent winds come from the dry west or north.  It seems like the wet times are often wetter and the dry times are drier than they used to be. 

The point being with our ever hotter world, expect more surprises and more weather extremes.  Even if a particular month is not the warmest on record for planet Earth. This will go on for the rest of your lives and beyond.   

Confirmed: World Had Hottest October On Record By Wide Margin

 As promised, we now have NOAA's latest temperatures check on the world, this one for October. As I've hinted at previously, October indeed was the hottest on record. 

The National Centers for Environmental Information tell us that October was nearly 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the previous warmest in 2015. Half a degree doesn't sound like much, but that's a hugely wide margin when you take in the entire world's data. 

Wildly remarkably, October was the fifth consecutive month to break the record for the world's hottest. 

If you are under 47 years old, you've never seen a global October that was cooler than the 20th century average. The long trend of climate change continues, and has accelerated, at least temporarily.  

The warmest areas relative to average were the Arctic north of Canada and Alaska; most of Siberia and Mongolia, southern Europe, central South America, southeastern Canada and New England. 

 One relatively cool spot on Earth in October was much of Antarctica (which is a good thing, considering how worried we are about massive ice melt down there).

 The only other sort of coolish areas were a part of northern Scandinavia, a small patch of the Indian Ocean southwest of Indonesia, a tiny spot in central Australia and southeastern Montana. That's about it. And those areas were only slightly cooler than the long temp average. 

I've already seen climatologists start to analyze November so far.  While global temperatures aren't trending quite as far above normal as they did in October, November still seems to be in line to become the warmest on record.

This year is so far the warmest on record, according to NCEI. We now have a greater than 99 percent chance of this year being the hottest on record. That would surpass 2016, which came during the last big El Nino.

El Ninos, as I've mentioned so many times I feel like I'm living the movie "Groundhog Day," boosts global temperatures. El Nino works in conjunction with climate change to break many record high temperatures across the Globe. 

Since El Nino is expected to last at least through the winter, expect more global - and local - high temperature records in the coming months. 

Global Temperature Checkup: May Was World's Third Hottest

Lots of red again. Most of the world was warmer than
average in May.  Ranked as third hottest on record.

 As we do every month, let's check in with NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information to see how the previous months climate did across the globe.  

As always, the news is lousy.  May, 2023 was the world's third hottest month, at least during the past 174 years of records. 

The first five months of 2023 combined were the fourth warmest overall.  This pretty much already guarantees that this year will once again be among the top ten warmest on record. 

Climate change continues apace. 

I say this every single month when I do this update, but it's worth saying again, just because it's so dramatic. If you're under the age of 47, you have never seen a month on Earth that was cooler than the long term average.

The world's oceans, along with both North and South America, had their hottest May on record. The Earth's southern hemisphere was why the world as a whole "only" had its third hottest May.  That southern hemisphere logged just its 23rd warmest May out of the past 174 of 'em. 

The hottest areas of the world, at least compared to historical averages, was virtually all of Canada (no wonder they have so many wildfires!); much the northern tier of the United States;  southwestern and northeastern Europe and most of South America. 

The few relatively chilly areas included a large chunk of India, parts of southern China, central Australia and substantial parts of Antarctica.

Looking at just the United States, we had the 11th warmest May out of the last 129 years. The northwestern quarter of the nation was very warm. Washington had its warmest year on record and seven other states in the northwest/Northern Rockies had one of their top ten warmest. 

The Southeast was cool, with South Carolina reporting its 10th coldest May on record. 

I remember being struck an odd temperature pattern in Vermont for May, which featured warm days and chilly nights. The NCEI data back me up.  The Green Mountain State had its 18th coldest average minimum temperatures for May, but somewhat warmer than normal highs, ranking 54th out of 129 years. 

 As of May 31, the United States was up to nine weather disasters each costing at least $1 billion. These do not include the near-constant storms in the southern United States so far this June. These disasters cost 99 lives and have caused at least $23 billion in damage.

June data will be available in mid-July or so. Not sure if the United States will be warmer than average, but I do know the world as a whole will be on the hot side.  A series of epic heat waves have already hit large swaths of Asia, Canada and Central America, to name just a few hot places so far this month.