March Was World 2nd Warmest, Possibly Signaling New Hot Push, U.S., As Expected Shattered March Heat Records

March, 2026 was tied for the second warmest on
record on Earth. With an El Nino coming,
the month's temperatures could be a signal
that unprecedented hot times could
be on their way.

 The global temperatures in March were back to their old tricks, going back to second hottest on record after several months of "cooler" months that were only in third place in the hottest months list.

Even hotter, more dangerous times might be ahead in the coming months or year or two. 

Actually this March barely squeaked into second place. It was virtually tied with March, 2024. The National Centers for Environmental Information continues: 

"All March global temperature departures ranking in the top 10 during the period 1850-2026 have occurred since 2015. This month marked the 50th consecutive March with a global temperature departure above the 20th century average."

The March, 2026 global temperatures might represent an ominous reversal in ever-so-slightly cooler trends we saw over the past year or so.  La Nina, which tends to cool the global climate, put a stop to a month after month stretch of almost continuous record global heat in 2023 and 2024.

Starting last June, most months were the third warmest on record. That's scary enough, since La Nina could barely put the most unnoticeable dent in the effects of climate change. The effects of La Nina might have peaked this past winter. December, January and February were all the world's fifth warmest, respectively. 

La Nina has faded and it loos like El Nino - which generally warms the global atmosphere - might be developing. It could be a strong one, and that could send the world's temperatures skyrocketing to new, dangerous heights by next year. 

The higher the global temperatures, the higher the risk of killer heat waves, worst droughts, increasingly torrential floods and more intense, less predictable storms. 

THE DETAILS

As always in this age of climate change, cold spots were hard to find in March.  However, there was a notable very cold area in Alaska and the Yukon Territory of Canada. That area was much colder relative to average than we usually see in these monthly reports. 

The only other slightly chilly areas I could find on the NCEI maps were small areas in northwest Africa, Antarctica, the extreme southeastern Pacific ocean and northwestern Siberia.  And what is now almost a perennial area of coolness hovered over an area of the North Atlantic a little south of Greenland. 

Also, although March as a whole in Australia wasn't cold, a sharp frigid snap at the end of the month shattered decades-old March temperature records in many cities, NCEI reports. Two Australian cities reported all-time record lows. 

The most wild hot spot relative to average was the contiguous United States. I'll have more on that below. Other really notable hot spots relative to average were in the entire Arctic (north of that Alaskan cold spot), northern and eastern Europe, large areas of Asia and spots across Africa and Antarctica.

Year to date, the first three months of 2026 is so far the fourth warmest year on record. It's almost certain this year will be among the top 10 warmest on record and likely among the top five. 

As is usually the case for March, Arctic sea ice extent reached its maximum extent of the year on the 15th. It wasn't that extensive. The ice covered 5.52 million square miles, statistically tied with last year for the smallest maximum in the 48 years satellite have been keeping track, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. 

UNITED STATES

The contiguous United States was exceptionally 
warm in March, breaking records from 
coast to coast. We'll see if it's a harbinger
 of a torrid summer. 

As we have been reporting, March, 2026 was ridiculously, insanely hot in the Lower 48. Now we have the final receipts.  

NCEI tells us: 

"The average temperature over the contiguous US (CONUS), in March was 50.85 degree F, 9.35 degrees F above average, ranking as the warmest March in the 132-year record. This marks the first time any month's average temperature has exceeded 9 degrees F above its 20th-century baseline. It also includes the warmest 12-month period on record for the CONUS (April, 2025-March 2026)"

Even more remarkably, the nations average high temperature during March was 64.4 degrees, an incredible 11.4 degrees above the 20th century average. That super warm March average daily maximum was actually 0.9 degrees warmer than the average April high. 

 Ten states had their warmest March on record. They were all large states in the southwestern United States, so those made up about a quarter on the United States. Included those ten, 35 states had one of their top 10 warmest Marches on record. 

Put another way, more than 500 counties, covering more than one quarter of the Lower 48 and affecting about 79 million people, recorded their warmest March on record, NCEI tell us. 

The "coldest" state was Maine, but even they were well above normal.  Maine had their 33rd warmest March out of the past 132 years. Vermont was one of a handful of other very warm but not super warm states. The Green Mountain State had its 19th warmest March. 

Mostly because of the continuing record high temperatures in the Southwest and Rockies all year so far, January-March is also the hottest on record. 

There was one particular cold spot in the United States: Alaska. The state had its fourth coldest March out the past 102 years. The last time Alaska had a March that cold was in 1972.

The heat, relative to average, diminished a little in the United States in April, so I'm guessing we'll get a break in the month after month reports of record warmth. 

The United States also had its eight driest March on record. In general, the states that were the warmest in March were also the driest. California had its driest March on record. Eight other states in the Southwest and Southeast had one of their top ten driest Marches.

The only really wet areas was around the eastern Great Lakes. Michigan had its third wettest March. Here in Vermont, March precipitation was right around average.  

It'll be an interesting to see whether March was a prelude to an extraordinarily hot summer, or just another month that really went off the rails. 

World Had Fifth Warmest January Despite Arctic Block That Kept Parts Of Europe, U.S.

January was the worlds fifth warmest on record 
Blocking high pressure in the Arctic kept that
region exceptionally warm, while parts of 
Europe and North America were 
a little cool as a result of that blocking

It might have seemed cold locally, but the world had its fifth warmest January on record, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

"This marks the 50th consecutive January (since 1977) with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th -century average. The 10 warmest Januarys on record have occurred since 2007, with the most recent five years (2022-26),"  NCEI noted in its monthly report.    

When you look at the data and maps from this monthly report, you can really see in this report how a persistent blocking pattern messed with temperatures in the northern hemisphere. 

High pressure over the Arctic and Greenland made that area super warm compared to average. That was especially true in northern and western Greenland and northeastern Canada.

Meanwhile, this pattern squashed the frigid air in the Arctic southward. That's why the eastern United States, northern and central Europe and most of the western two thirds of Russia were on the cool side.  

The cold air was also forced to spread out over a larger land area by this pattern, helping keep the world's January as a whole cooler than it otherwise would have been overall. Also, the effects of La Nina, which tends to cool the world, would be peaking roughly about now. 

No areas came close to the coldest on record. 

Fifth hottest is still impressively warm. Given the factors above, January shouldn't have been that warm. Climate change is still ruling the roost. As we previously reported, an El Nino is brewing for later this year, and that could bring the world's temperature to new and dangerous heights late this year or in 20247. 

In January, 2026, besides the Arctic, other areas that were much warmer than normal were Africa, which had its warmest January on record. Other hot areas include central Asia, southern Australia, much of western Canada, the western United States and the Atlantic Ocean between the Caribbean and Africa. 

UNITED STATES

The data confirms it: We had a remarkable west-east divide during January. 

Data confirms the Lower 48 had a warm west and a 
cold east Note that western temperatures were
near record highs, while eastern temperatures
were generally just somewhat cooler than average.

The East had a real winter, while the West was having a year without a winter in January. As NCEI tells us: 

"Temperatures were much above average across a large portion of the western third of the (United States). Oregon, California, Utah and Arizona each had one of the six warmest starts of the year. Along with Washington, Nevada and New Mexico, they each recorded their warmest December-January period on record."

Thought the East was cold, the chill didn't come close to breaking records for the month. Ohio came the closest, ending the month as 31st coldest out of the past 132 years. Pennsylvania was 32nd coldest .

For the record, we in Vermont had our 75th coldest January, or 57th warmest January, depending on how you want to look at it. 

Mix it all together and the United States ended up having its 19th warmest January. 

Precipitation was scant, despite a wide-ranging winter storm toward the end of the month. January ended up as the eleventh driest on record for the Lower 48. The Northwest and northern Rockies were particularly dry. Oregon and Montana had their fifth driest Januaries on record. 

Only four states - Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico and Wisconsin were noticeably wetter than average and even those states did not come anywhere close to record wet.

Here in Vermont, we had our 48th driest January out of the past 132 years.  

January had a few other impressive weather events that I missed as they unfold.

On January 8 and 9 rare winter flash flooding occurred in parts of Wisconsin and Illinois amid a burst of record warmth that brought temperatures in the low 60s, and heavy rain. Up to three inches of rain fell near Chicago.  Chicago had as much rain in one day as they normally have in the entire month of January. 

Alaska had rough January. We already reported on the epic, record snows around Juneau in December and early January, which were followed by flooding. But two of Alaska's other larger cities had their own issues. 

The temperature in Fairbanks never got above zero for 32 consecutive days ending on January 14. That's the longest stretch of continuous subzero cold in more than 100 years.  Down in Anchorage, January snowfall set a record with 40.2 inches of snow.

On the warm side of things, St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands had their warmest January on record with an average temperature of 81.6 degrees.

 

El Nino Might Be Looming. That Might Turn A Climate Changed Hot World Torrid

Schematic showing how an El Nino develops.
Many climate watchers think a new El 
Nino will develop next year, possibly
causing more record high temperatures
for the world, 

 A (mostly) natural global weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean might propel global temperature to new heights next year. 

It's all about the familiar El Nino and La Nina cycle. 

In general, La Nina brings cool water to the eastern Pacific off the coast of South America.  In turn, global temperatures fall slightly. 

The opposite, El Nino, warms up those Pacific Ocean waters off of Chile and the whole world gets a little warmer. 

Which wouldn't be that big a deal without climate change.  

But climate change led to the El Nino year of 2023 becoming the hottest on record. Until 2024, when that record was broken. 

This year has brought mostly either La Nina or neutral conditions. And the good news is 2025 is turning to be cooler than last year. But barely. There's a chance it could tie 2023 as second warmest, but will probably end up at Number 3. Even if it ends up Number 3, it will be much warmer than what would become the #4 spot, 2016. 

What worries scientists, then, is 2025 barely cooled off from the hot times of the two previous years, despite a La Nina for at least part of the year. 

Now, signs are stirring that might point to a new warm El Nino in 2026. If that happens, we could get another record warm year in 2026 or 2027.  We would face even more intense deadly heatwaves, stronger floods than we've already been seeing, and worse droughts. 

The Washington Post describes the initial signs of a possible El Nino this way: 

 "Typically, winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific Ocean, forming a predictable pattern called trade winds. These trade winds cause some of the planet's warmest ocean water to pile up in the western Pacific near Papua, New Guinea and the Philippines. But a few times a year on average, winds weaken and reverse direction, blowing from west to east at about 15 mph for a few weeks - forming a westerly wind burst."

This affects an area of Pacific Ocean water south of Guam that's the hottest in the world. The westerly wind burst pushes some that water across the Pacific toward Chile. It takes two or three months for this process to happen, so the warmer water would be near the South American west coast in early 2026.

However, as WaPo explains, one westerly wind burst does  not an El Nino make. You need a few of them to get a decent El Nino going. Which means we might not get an El Nino and if we do, we don't know how strong it will be.

Stronger El Ninos have a greater effect on global temperatures than lame ones.  

For now, NOAA predicts weak La Nina conditions we had in November to continue well into this winter, but transition to neutral conditions by late winter. Than means the eastern Pacific ocean waters won't be particularly warm or cool. 

The NOAA forecast doesn't get its what might happen after early spring. 

However, the private climate consulting company Climate Impact Company is forecasting El Nino conditions to begin taking hold in the spring. The forecast is based on various computer climate models. 

The Climate Impact Company forecasts notes that the northeastern Pacific ocean has warmed up a lot recently, and that is often a precursor to an El Nino.

The World Meteorological Organization predicts that if an El Nino develops, it won't be until after April 2026. 

November was the world's third warmest on record, even with a weak La Nina. You'd think November would have been a little cooler, since La Nina has been going on for several months now. 

So you can imagine how the global heat might be turned on big time if we get an El Nino, especially if it turns out to be jumbo sized. 

he weird heat waves and big storms that keep popping up in the news seem a little terrifying now. Wait until things really heat up.  

May Was Yet World's 12th Consecutive Record Hottest Month; June Could Do It Again

Lots of red in the world temperature map for May 
Shades of red represent warmer than average areas
and the darkest red is record warmest in those locations.

 Catching up with climate statistics I had to note that climatologists think June could well be the warmest on record.  

This might be even more surprising than May's global performance as the world's 12th consecutive hottest month.

May beat the previous record set in 2020 by about a third of a degree Fahrenheit. That doesn't sound like much at all, but when you compile all the world's data, that amounts to a huge margin above the previous record level.

El Nino teamed up with climate change to boost global temperature to new heights.  El Nino heats up the eastern Pacific Ocean, and tends to make the world's overall temperature a little warmer. 

El Nino has been crashing fast, to be replaced by La Nina, which tends to cool the world's atmosphere just a little. 

So far, we haven't seen that.  There's usually a lag in which the subtle La Nina cooling begins. Climatologists are starting to tap their feet and check their watches nervously as that hasn't happened yet. 

The scientists for now are still convinced months during the second half of 2024 won't keep breaking monthly records for the world. But there's no question the heat is on forever, even if some months "only" score in the top 10 warmest.

With La Nina in the picture, there's "only" a 50/50 shot at 2024 becoming the world's hottest year on record, besting 2023, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.

We won't know until we get into July whether the current month ended up breaking the record for hottest June, obviously set just last year.

But we know May solidly broke the world record. Almost nobody on the planet had a cool May. The only pockets of "chill",  at least relative to the heat of recent years. Southern South America, western Russia, a few pockets in Antarctica, a couple areas of Greenland and a small dot in the western United States were a little on the cool side. 

If you are under the age of 48, you've never seen a May in which the overall world temperature was even a teeny, tiny bit cooler than the long term average. 

By the way, as May was the 12th consecutive record hot month, the oceans had their 14th consecutive record hot water month in May. 

With each month through May at record levels, the world as a whole had its warmest January-May stretch on record. 

The United States had its 13th warmest May out of the past 130 years.

Florida had its warmest May on record. Thirteen other states, including Vermont had one of their top 10 warmest Mays in 2024,

 

A Record-Breaking Hurricane Season? One Forecast Group Says So

A University of Pennsylvania team is forecast a 
record busy hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean
this year. It's the second major prediction that calls
for a potentially chaotic and dangerous season.

A forecasting group from the University of Pennsylvania said they expect a record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season with perhaps 33 named storms.  

If you think I've already written about a hurricane forecast this year, you're right. A  Colorado State University forecast issued in early April which said 23 tropical storms or hurricanes were in the cards for the Atlantic Ocean this summer and autumn. 

The newer University of Pennsylvania hurricane forecast that just came out is in line with, but definitely more ominous than that Colorado State University prediction. 

The forecast from the University of Pennsylvania team, led by climatologist Michael Mann, actually has a forecast of between 27 and 39 named storms, but 33 is their more pinpointed forecast. If there's 33 named storms, that would exceed the current record for the most number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean in a single season. That was a total of 30 such storms in 2020.

An average season produces about 14 Atlantic storms, about half of which become hurricanes. Seven of the past eight years have been busier than normal hurricane seasons. Warm ocean waters - probably with climate change contributing - have helped force these storms. 

THE REASONING

One big reason for Mann & Co's bullish 2024 hurricane forecast is the already hot water in the Atlantic Ocean in the region where most hurricane develop. Per the Washington Post: 

"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects a marine heat wave, or sea surface temperature well above normal, to continue in the tropical Atlantic through at least September. That has forecasters concerned about an active hurricane season because warmer ocean waters typically increase the intensity of storms."

Another reason why the team at the University of Pennsylvania think this year is going to be a blockbuster for hurricanes is that El Nino is rapidly falling apart. El Nino is a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean.  That warming contributes to strong upper level winds in the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean.

Those strong upper level winds tear apart thunderstorms that are the building blocks for tropical storms and hurricanes. Rip apart those thunderstorms and you rip apart the chances they'll grow into a hurricane  

Long range forecasts for the summer and fall call for the opposite of El Nino, which is La Nina. That consisted of coolish water in the eastern Pacific and calmer upper level winds over the Atlantic. That would more likely allow tropical storms and hurricanes to form. 

If La Nina fails to develop, the number of expected hurricanes in the Atlantic would decrease this year, Mann says. But only a little. That hot water out there would still contribute to storms. 

TRACK RECORD

Here's something that might make people who don't like hurricanes more nervous. The University of Pennsylvania hurricane predictions in most recent years have more often than not predicted fewer such storms than what actually developed. 

Last year, the University of Pennsylvania team predicted 16 tropical storms and hurricanes. We ended up with 20. Luckily the majority of those missed populated land areas.

In that blockbuster year of 2020, University of Pennsylvania predicted 20 storms, ten less than the Atlantic actually produced.

The last time University of Pennsylvania sort of predicted too many storms was in 2016. They anticipated 19 storms and we got 15. Even so, 2016 was within their margin of error. They actually said there would be 19 storms that year, plus or minus four. 

WHERE THEY GO

What really matters, of course, is where hurricanes go after they form. If they have an opportunity to head north well off the coast and hit cold water in the North Atlantic, then no problem. They just go up there and die.

If a strong Bermuda High is north of a hurricane and that high pressure system extends its influence into the United States, chances are the hurricane would head into the Gulf of Mexico. At that point, anything from Florida to Texas could take a hit, or the storm could just divert to Mexico instead. It depends on the steering patterns over the Gulf. 

If there's a dip in the jet stream in the central United States, that dip could steer a hurricane into the East Coast. If that dip in the jet stream is right along or just off the East Coast, chances are that hurricane would be steered safely out to sea. It all depends on the weather pattern when the hurricane is roaming around out there. 

Of course, the more hurricanes there are, the greater the chance that some will hit land. Which is why the University of Pennsylvania forecast is so worrying. 

Already the Atlantic Ocean is beginning and to throw hints of what might be to come. The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday they were monitoring a swirling disturbance in the east central Atlantic Ocean. 

It looked like a nascent tropical storm, though strong upper level winds were forecast to destroy the small storm before it could grow much.  That one was a fizzle, but soon enough, we'll start having tropical storms and hurricanes that could spell trouble. 

 

Some Forecasters Worry About Potential Big Hurricane Season '24 But There's Caveats

Some forecasters are worries that Atlantic hurricane 
season of 2024 will be busy.  But that all depends
on whether forecasts stay accurate, and where
those eventual hurricanes go 

 There's been some rumblings in the weather news world about a possible hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season this year.  

I've got the reality in this post.  Probably good to know if you live in a hurricane prone area of the United States. Or even an inland area that can get nailed with severe flooding from an ex-hurricane that has moved inland.  

Vermont readers: That can mean us. See: Great New England Hurricane of 1938 and Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. 

The bottom line is that a combination of super hot water already simmering in the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes tend to form and a waning El Nino has forecasters nervous. But not panicked. 

HERE'S WHY

First: The hot water. The near-record to record warm sea surface temperatures extend all the way fro the African coast to the Caribbean. 

As the Washington Post explains,  the area of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes are most likely to develop is running hot. At last check, this area is running 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit higher than any other year on record, says Philip Klotzbach, a tropical meteorologist at Colorado State University.

 If the above normal temperatures in this broad area continue, a disturbance coming off the African coast has plenty of opportunity to strengthen on its long journey westward. 

All other things being equal, warm water helps hurricanes grow. The hotter the water, the hotter the hurricane, unless atmospheric conditions somehow interfere with the storm's development. 

El Nino, that periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean, can easily create atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic that can muck up a wannabe hurricane's fight for survival. El Nino often produces stronger upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean. Those strong winds rip apart thunderstorms that are the initial ingredients for hurricanes. 

Or a hurricane can run into that buzzsaw of high winds and weaken into oblivion as a result. 

The problem now is that El Nino is widely expected to fall apart this spring, possibly to be replaced by the opposite La Nina by summer and autumn.  That's the peak of hurricane season.

La Nina does the opposite of El Nino, tending to calm upper level winds in the Atlantic.  Which gives hurricanes "permission" to grow. 

Of course, it's still well before hurricane season, and a lot can change. 

Perhaps we might find increased levels of dust blowing from the Saharan desert westward into the skies over the Atlantic Ocean. That would dim the sun, blunting the warming that's now going on in the water.

Maybe the forecast of a dying El Nino is wrong. Forecasters say conditions favor El Nino ending, but it's not any kind of guarantee.

What matters most is where hurricanes go.  If you get a bunch of strong hurricanes, but they curve harmlessly northward and die over the cold North Atlantic without hitting land, then who cares?

The problem obviously comes when a strong hurricane hits land somewhere. There's no good way to know this early in the year where hurricanes will hit. In fact, we usually have no idea of a hurricane's future path until after it actually forms. 

WHAT TO DO NOW 

The advice for anybody living in a hurricane prone area now is to just think about how to fortify your property against hurricanes. Does your insurance policy cover all aspects of hurricanes, including wind damage, storm surge and inland flooding? 

Insurance in many hurricane prone areas is very expensive, hard to get and doesn't provide adequate coverage. Unfortunately, you might have to plan for that. 

If you can afford it, you should probably have a "hurricane fund" set aside that you can dip into to cover expenses associated with these storms. 

You have to think about transportation and lodging if you end up under evacuation orders, buying supplies to gird your property against approaching hurricanes, and money to cover repairs not covered by insurance. 

Also, think about where you'd go if forced to evacuate.  And what you'll need in your home during a hurricane if you don't evacuate. Things like adequate food that you can prepare even if you have no power, non-perishable goods that can survive safely without refrigerations. And don't forget stuff for your pets. 

The chances of a strong hurricane hitting a particular spot on the U.S. coastline is low. But the chances of a big hurricane hitting somewhere in the U.S. is reasonably high.  This year, those chances appear a little higher than in many past years. 

Also, ignore the hype.  It's true forecasters are concerned about the upcoming hurricane season. But the social media hype machine takes it to a whole unreasonable new level. I've seen things already from clickbait that "guarantees" massive hurricane destruction in the U.S. later this summer and fall.

Spoiler: There are no guarantees. 

Even legitimate weather publications are guilty of clickbait. A recent headline: "AccuWeather Sounds Alarm Bells: Super-Charged Hurricane Season Possible in 2024."

Then if you take the time to read the actual AccuWeather article, it's reasonable, accurate and doesn't contain scare tactics.  So take your time with these articles. 

I also can't part without bringing up my favorite target. Climate change.  A big reason why the Atlantic is so hot to begin with is because the world is warmer as we continue to belch greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. 

Ocean temperatures will always fluctuate, but the trend will be up, up, up as the years and decades go by. So this worry over super big hurricanes won't be one-off just for 2024. 

Signs Point Toward El Nino Fading By Summer

Schematic showing basic weather influences of 
El Nino, right, which is expected to fade, and La Nina,
left which some forecasters thing will 
take over later this year. 

El Nino, that periodic warming of the eastern Pacific ocean is still in full swing, disrupting weather patterns around the world and boosting global temperatures on top of already intensifying climate change trends.  

Now, there are signs that El Nino might fade.  That kind of thing is inevitable, as El Nino, or its opposite, La Nina seldom last longer than a year or so.

Already, there are signs that El Nino has already passed its peak, though most observers think its effects will last into April at least. 

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says there's a 79 percent chance that El Nino will fade to neutral conditions by spring.  Those neutral conditions mean the eastern Pacific is neither particularly hot nor chilly. Just kinda average.

However, Climate Prediction Center forecasters say they're detecting increasing odds we might see a switch to La Nina by summer.  There have been several El Ninos in the past that have recently switched rapidly to the cooler La Nina. So if that happens, this wouldn't be too odd

If the transition to La Nina happens, the explosive rate of global warming we've seen over the past year might slow toward the end of the year. But 2024 still has a very strong chance of beating last year as the world's hottest year on record. 

A sustained La Nina, which is a cooling of those eastern Pacific waters, could conceivably make 2025 and 2026 slightly less hot than this year or last. But because of climate change, those future years should still be among the hottest on record. And contribute to all those record heat waves, droughts and extreme storms the world has been increasingly experiencing our the past recent years and decades. 

A more immediate potential issue for the United States is hurricanes.  El Nino tends to suppress hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. Even so there were will more tropical storms and hurricanes than normal in the Atlantic last summer and autumn.

If we do see a La Nina by summer, though, it becomes easier for Atlantic hurricanes to form and become super strong.  That's because unlike in an El Nino, a La Nina features lighter upper level winds. Which means tall thunderstorms that are seeds for tropical storms and hurricanes won't get blown apart before they can organize into hurricanes. 

For us in Vermont, El Ninos more often than not give us warm winters. We've certainly had that this year. We generally have colder winters when there's a La Nina in the Green Mountain State, but of course that doesn't alway happen. Just usually. And climate change is more or less taking some of the sting out of New England winters anyway. 

Of course there's no guarantee we'll see that La Nina by this summer and autumn.  A 55 percent chance of one developing is just a little better than flipping a coin. 

Scientists will continue to monitor the data over the coming months, and adjust forecasts accordingly. 

El Nino/La Nina And Surprised Climate Scientists

Schematic that shows the difference in water 
temperature in the Pacific Ocean between La Nina 
and El Nino. Red is warmer water, blue is colder

 As I've mentioned previously here in this blog hoodickey, it appears the world is headed into an El Nino pattern. 

This all has to do with water temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Which would seem to be their problem, except it affects the entire world. 

Throughout known history, we've switched back and forth between El Nino, which is a warming of the eastern Pacific, and La Nina, which is a cooling trend in the same area. 

The cycle is abbreviated as ENSO, which stands for El Nino-Southern Oscillation. 

Scientists have a pretty good basic handle on the myriad of effects each cycle has on weather in various parts of the world. For instance, La Nina tends to encourage drought in the western U.S. and more hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean.

El Nino tends to depress those hurricanes and sometimes makes the West Coast quite a bit wetter. And those are just a couple of examples.

Here's the newsy part of this whole thing. Climate scientists in general thought that as the world warms, El Ninos would become more frequent and La Nina less so.

At least in recent decades, though, the opposite seems to be happening. 

As Bob Henson reports in Yale Climate Connections:

"Many aspects of human-caused climate change are playing out as long predicted, including overall warming of the global atmosphere and oceans as well as intensification of rainfall extremes and the drying of many subtropical areas. 

Not so for ENSO. Top global climate models have predicted for more than 20 years that the tropical Pacific would gradually shift toward and 'El Nino-like' state, with the surface waters warming more rapidly toward the east than the west."

I don't know if this is a quick temporary blip - and quick, temporary blips with climate last years or decades - but it's beginning to seem like La Nina is the go-to mode in the eastern Pacific in terms of climate change. 

Henson again: 

"For example, since mid-2003, there have been ten 'years' (July to June) when La Nina conditions predominated, but only six for El Nino. Among years when the moderate-strength threshold was reached, seven were La Nina but only two were El Nino.

The La Nina-like temperature contrast in the tropical Pacific has now been strengthening for so long that it's gotten tougher to ascribe to natural variability."

As noted, we seem to be heading into an El Nino after a near record long and strong La Nina, which had gone on for a good three years. 

The weather and climate on Earth has always been wild. Us humans are making it even wilder. Which is not a good thing. 

 

 

World's Oceans At Record Warm Levels. Why You Should Worry

Chart shows ocean temperature trends. Click on the 
image to make it bigger and easier to see.
That black line is this year's overall ocean temperatures
and shows record high levels since late 
March of this year. Yellow line is 2022 and
the dotted gray line is the long 
term average temperatures 

 Here in landlocked Vermont, we should worry too much about warm ocean temperatures, right? Or even if you take an excursion to the New England coast this weekend, you'll turn numb immediately if you dip your toe in the water. 

So, everything's great, right?

Um, no. Not at all. 

The world's oceans, if you add up the water temperatures everywhere on Earth, are at record high levels. This has been going on for weeks now. And it's about to get more intense. 

As nature.com reports:

"What is remarkable is its occurrence ahead of - rather than during - an El Nino climate event that is expected to bring warmer, wetter weather to the the eastern Pacific region later this year." 

You and me both really don't care if it rains a lot over the eastern Pacific. But we do care a lot if this makes the weather get wonky and scary here or anywhere else on Earth where we might have loved ones or any kind of interest. 

The El Nino will continue to drive up ocean water temperatures in concert with climate change.  Warmer oceans contribute more moisture to the air than cooler water, so this trend toward toastier sea water will boost storms. 

Those storms will have an extra shot of moisture, so rainfall from some of these systems will be intense. Flooding will surely be an even more frequent visitor to news headlines than now.  Of course, it's not really possible to tell precisely who gets the storms and when. 

The warmer oceans also release heat back to the atmosphere, increasing the odds of record-shattering, dangerous heat waves. 

Regions of some oceans get temporarily very warm compared to normal. These are called marine heat waves. These heat waves can decimate fisheries and other marine life, and kill coral in affected areas.  

Ocean water temperatures began rising rapidly while a La Nina pattern was ongoing last year and early this year. La Nina is the opposite of El Nino and tends to suppress ocean water temperatures overall.  But lately, not really. Scientists worry about ocean water temperatures climbing more steeply in the coming months, especially if the El Nino that's coming on is particularly strong. 

Here's one other thing that might be suddenly making things worse. 

New rules put in place back in 2020 required ships plying the oceans to use fuel with a much lower sulfur content. This reduced sulfur dioxide emissions, which is a good thing in general. Pollution is bad after all, right?

The new standards mean much less acid rain falling into the oceans, which is a plus for marine life. However, an unintended side effect of this pollution fighting effort was to clear the skies over the ocean. Again, at first glance, this is a  good thing. The sulfur pollution from ships caused a haze over the oceans that dimmed the sun, preventing some of its heat from reaching the water surface,

Now, the sun is stronger without all that sulfur dioxide pollution, so more heat is entering the oceans in mid-latitudes, contributing to the upward trend in water temperatures. 

These high ocean water temperatures mean that the rough weather and climate ride the Earth has been on recently will get even more rough. 

 

March Was World's Second Warmest On Record

Almost all of the world was warmer than the
long term average, once again, in March
2023.  It was the world's second warmest
March on record. Small photo, so click
on the image to make it bigger and
easier to see. 

 As we do monthly, we always check the world's monthly temperature when the number crunchers complete their work. So now we have the March, 2023 global data.

The month was the world's second warmest. Only March, 2016 was warmer. All eight of the past eight Marches were in the top ten warmest. 

The other top 10 warmest March readings were in 2002 and 2010.  The records go back to 1850 or so.  

The March, 2023 departure from the 20th century average was the third highest for any month, just behind February and March, 2016.

For those of you keeping track, the last time the world had a March that was at least a smidge cooler than normal was in 1976. That means if you are under the age of 47, you've never seen a global March that was cooler than average.

NOAA's  National Centers for Environmental Information is already saying that 2023 is pretty much guaranteed to be among the top 10 warmest years on record and stands an excellent chance of being among the top five.

We've shifted out of a La Nina pattern of cool water in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which tends to try to cool the Earth a little. We're going into an El Nino, which tends to increase global temperatures. That means 2023 stands a chance at being the hottest year on record. 

In March, 2023, the places that appeared to be warmest in March relative to the long term average were much of the Arctic, especially in northern Canada, northeastern Canada, pretty much all of Asia except Southeast Asia, parts of eastern Europe, southern South America and much of Antarctica. 

The only places in the world that were on the cool side were the western United States, southwestern and south central Canada, an area of Pacific ocean southwest of South America, Iceland and an area of the Arctic north and northwest of Scandinavia. 

Overall the United States sat out the global warmth of March, 2023.  The Gulf Coast and the East Coast from Florida to New England were warm, but the western third of the United States was chilly.  Out of 130 years of record, this was the 45th coolest March in the contiguous U.S. 

Oregon had its third coldest March on record. California, Nevada and North Dakota had their fifth coldest March.  Florida managed to have its eighth warmest March

Here in Vermont, we had our 30th warmest March out of the past 130.

 Judging in part from epic heat waves that have already hit parts of China, southeastern Asia and the northeastern United States, April is sure to come in as one of the world 's top 10 hottest, and likely one of the top 5.

La Nina Officially Over After Three Year Run. Will Its Demise Cause Even More Weather Extremes?

Map of global sea surface temperatures as they compared to
normal. This was October, 2020, during a peak
in the recent long La Nina. Notice all the blue off the 
west coast of South America depicting cool water
temperatures associated with La Nina. This same area
would have warmer than normal water temperatures
during an opposite phenomenon all El Nino.

 La Nina, a periodic cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean that has lasted a weirdly long time of three years, is finally kaput, the National Weather Service announced this past week. 

This isn't exactly great news. 

La Nina tends to cool the world's climate a little bit. The disconcerting part of the latest La Nina is there was virtually no cooling during this three-year event. Global temperatures set new highs around 2016, and essentially flatlined since. 

If a strong La Nina can't cool the world a little bit, what will its absence do? 

On top of that, weather extremes associated with climate change continued apace despite the supposed cooling effects of La Nina.

The fear is, now that La Nina is gone, we are priming ourselves for a likely soon-to-arrive El Nino. El Nino  a warming of the eastern Pacific and tends to push global temperatures up. This created its own set of big weather dramas. 

We really don't need that. 

As the Washington Post reports:

"The probable return of El Nino raises concerns about how it could accelerate global warming and crises of climate change. The last major El Nino episode in 2016 sent average global temperatures to record highs and contributed to devastating rainforest loss, coral bleaching, polar ice melt and wildfires." 

That said, we don't know how strong the likely a looming El Nino would be. If it's not a big one and doesn't raise eastern Pacific Ocean temperatures all that much, then the effects would be somewhat muted.

That doesn't mean weather extremes would stop.  Even if the eastern Pacific were in Goldilocks mode - not too hot, not too cold -  big storms, floods and other calamities won't stop. Climate change is already priming the pump for that kind of thing. The weirdness will just shift around to different places and maybe take different forms. 

Most forecasts say the current state of affairs should shift into El Nino as the year goes on. El Ninos tend to warm the world. Aside from possibly pushing the overall global temperature to new record heights, storminess, drought, heat waves and other big troubles could also ramp up. 

After all, a hotter world is a more energized one. So the weather disasters could really start to pile up. 

Especially in the next El Nino is a biggie. If so, watch out! 

Here in the United States, La Nina in general tends to create colder, stormier conditions in the northern United States and warmer, drier stuff in the South. During the just-deceased La Nina, there was a fair share of chilly, stormy weather in the northern United States west of the Great Lakes, but it wasn't consistent.   The Northeast generally stayed mostly on the warm side during this.

The south has been unusually warm most of the time in the past three years. 

If we get an El Nino the southern United States would be slightly cooler and stormier in general, especially in the winter. 

On the bright side an El Nino tends to lower the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. That would be welcome after the slew of powerfully destructive hurricanes between 2016 and 2021. That El Nino  creates strong and veering winds aloft over swaths of the Atlantic Ocean. Those winds rip apart thunderstorms that are wannabe hurricanes. 

El Nino also makes drought somewhat less likely in the prime crop growing regions in the middle of the U.S, so there are benefits,

Both La Nina and El Nino are naturally occurring cycles. Both change global weather patterns. It's something humanity has dealt with for probably thousands of years and managed to carry on. Both phenomena created winners and losers.

Now, though, climate change is enhancing the negative effects of La Nina and El Nino.  Increasingly, both La Nina and El Nino create losers and losers.  

World In 2002 'Was 5th or 6th Hottest On Record, Depending On Who You Ask

Global trend in temperatures since 1880. See a trend?

Climatologists continue to crunch the numbers on the world's weather and climate for 2022, and it's becoming clear that the year was either the globe's fifth hottest or sixth hottest on record. 

On Thursday, NOAA ranked 2022 as the sixth hottest year on record. Meanwhile, other organizations, including NASA, Copernicus Climate Service of the European Union and Berkeley Earth, an environmental data science non-profit, said Earth had its fifth warmest year in 2022, the Washington Post reports. 

The difference in rankings stems from varying ways scientists measure the Earth's temperature. The differences between the two organizations are only at most a few hundredths of a degree.

According to NOAA' National Centers for Environmental Information, the new data means that all of the last nine years were the Earth's warmest on record and all the top 10 hottest years have occurred since 2010.  If you are under the age of 46, you have never seen a year on Earth that was cooler than the 20th century average. 

The latest count shows 28 nations set new records for warmest year in 2022. They're all over the place, too, not just one region. They include several European nations, China and New Zealand. 

Record breaking, deadly heat waves cropped up all over the world in 2022. Examples include India in March, Pakistan in April, much of western Europe and swaths of the United States, China an Japan in July and August and parts of South America in November and December.    

Additionally, 11 nations or territories broke or tied all time high temperatures. They are Paraguay, Australia, Uruguay, Vatican City, United Kingdom, Jersey, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Barbados, Dominica and the Falkland Islands. 

Extreme droughts and devastating floods hit many countries in 2022,with some nations, like Pakistan and the United States, suffering through both. Droughts and floods have always occurred, of course, but climate change accentuates them, making the disasters more intense than they otherwise would be. 

As the Washington Post reports: 

"Heat record fell last year despite the presence of La Nina, an episodic cooling of the ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. The Earth's top several warmest years on record have occurred during El Nino events, when the tropical Pacific has been warm. La Nina is likely to fade this year, which could boost the planet's overall temperature and make weather around the world more extreme." 

The UK Met Office is already predicting that on a global basis, 2023 will be hotter than last year, since La Nina will be fading. If El Nino really takes charge, some scientists think 2024 might end up breaking the record for hottest year for Earth on record. 

Time For That Stupid "What Will This Winter Be Like" Parlor Game

Winter driving in St. Albans, Vermont a couple winters
 ago. It's virtually impossible to accurately predict 
what the upcoming winter will be like, but that's not going
to stop people from trying! 

 Right about now, it's peak frenzy time to predict what the upcoming winter weather will be like. 

I'm frankly not a big fan of this parlor game. There's so many factors that can influence the weather a couple, few months from now that it's almost not worth predicting. 

Besides, pretty much every winter here in Vermont is highly variable. Sure, some are cold, some are warm, some are snowy, some are rainy, whatever. But it's totally subjective. You might remember that horrible cold wave in January. Somebody else might remember a big February thaw.

The bottom line is, I'll tell you how the winter of 2022-23 will turn out. The catch is, I'll tell you in March, 2023. By then, we'll be out of winter and I can give an accurate accounting of it. 

For the record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday came out with their prediction of what winter will be like for the United States.  

Their thinking is that chances are better than equal that it will be warmer than average across the southern tier of the United States, and up along the East Coast, east of the Appalachians. Chances are, according to NOAA, that it will be chillier than average from the Pacific Northwest, through the far northern Rockies into the northern Plains. 

NOAA is also suggesting it will be drier than normal across the southern tier of the United States, and perhaps wetter than normal in the Pacific Northwest, far northern Rockies and around the Great Lakes.

Everywhere else, it's a tossup.

If you look at NOAA's map, most of Vermont has an equal chance of being warmer or colder than normal, with a slight edge toward warmer than average in the southeastern part of the state. Also, most of Vermont has equal chances of being wetter or drier than average, with a slight edge toward wetter in northwestern Vermont. 

NOAA is predicting a generally warmer
than normal winter in the South and a cooler
than average one in the northwest. White
areas in map are a tossup. 

This tells us nothing as to whether most of the precipitation we get will be rain or snow. 

NOAA based its prediction on the fact that this will probably be the third winter in a row in which the world is in an El Nina weather pattern.

This pattern features cooler than normal ocean water in the eastern Pacific Ocean off of South America. On average this pattern makes the southern third of the United States warmer and drier than normal. La Nina doesn't really tell us squat about what kind of winter we'll have in Vermont.

There's plenty of other factors that might weigh in. So it's anyone's guess. Just like it always is. 

Since it's a persistence forecast, another La Nina winter, you'd think that we could just look at the past two winters in Vermont and figure out what this season will bring. 

Nope. As always, last winter and the winter before were different from each other. Both were somewhat on the dry side in Vermont.  However, last January was quite a bit colder than normal while the January before was on the warm side. 

However the Decembers and Februaries of both seasons were vaguely similar, I suppose. This February was slightly wet, the February before, a little dry. 

So comparing winters doesn't help.

And forget about relying on the Farmers Almanac, wooly caterpillars, squirrel behavior or anything else. The almanac is an entertaining read, but its winter forecasts do little better than coin tosses. Squirrel behavior depends more upon food availability this time of year than anything else. The black and brown bands on the caterpillar are just a function of how it's been feeding, how old it is and its species. 

My official winter forecast is the same as it is every year: It will be warm unless it isn't, wet unless it isn't, and snowy unless it isn't. 

There's a 100 percent chance it will snow in Vermont this winter, and there will be lots of changes from cold spells to mild spells, stormy periods to calm periods. Just like every winter we Vermonters have experienced. 

March Was World's Fifth Warmest Month

Once again, too much red in the world.  March was Earth's
fifth warmest on record. 

 At least the world's (overheated) climate has been consistent for many months now. Too bad the consistency isn't a good sign.  

Globally March was the fifth warmest month on record. This follows the trend of the past several months to a year, in which pretty much every month has ranked somewhere between fourth and sixth place in the hot month derby. 

According to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information:

"The seven warmest Marches have occurred since 2015, while the 10 warmest Marches have occurred since 2002 March, 2022 also marked the 46th consecutive March and 447th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average." 

Overall, the first three months of 2022 were also the world's fifth hottest on record. 

 I guess we can at least partially blame La Nina for this strange consistency. La Nina is a periodic cooling of eastern Pacific Ocean water, especially off the west coast of South America. During a La Nina, the earth's temperature tends to cool a bit. 

This La Nina has lasted an unusually long time. Most La Ninas last from nine to twelve months. This one has gone on for two years and is expected to last at least a few more months. 

I wonder what will happen when we eventually flip over to the opposite phenomenon the El Nino. Unlike El Nina, the Nino tends to warm the global atmosphere somewhat, with or without human-induced climate change. 

That could mean more record heat for the planet, which means more weather extremes. Perhaps more deadly and more costly weather disasters than we're already experiencing. 

So far this year, insurers who track particularly expensive weather disasters with losses of $1 billion or more ave noted two such calamities this year through March.  That's about on pace with the rate of such disasters in recent years, anyway. 

The two mega-disasters in early 2022 were a huge flood in eastern Australia that caused about $4 billion in damage, and Storm Eunice, which caused about $4.1 in damage across western and central Europe, mostly due to high winds.  

February Was Earth's 7th Warmest; Continuing Trend In Supposedly "Cool" Regime

Another "red" world in February, 2022. Red areas
are where it was warmer than the long term average,
blue was cooler. The only big blue area is in the
eastern Pacific, which signifies a La Nina pattern.

 This is going to sound like a lot of posts you've read over the past few years, but you have to mark the occasion. 

The monthly global climate snapshot just came out, this one looking at February, 2022. Turns out it was the world''s 7th warmest February on record, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

That's about where we've been the past several months. Seems each of the past few months have been around the fifth, sixth or seventh warmest on record. 

It's a bit alarming, of course, to have such consistently warm global temperatures. That's especially true during what has been a remarkably persistent La Nina global weather and oceanic pattern

La Nina, all other things being equal, tends to cool the world just a little bit. On one hand, that helps explain why we haven't had any "warmest ever" months lately for the globe as a whole. It's also disconcerting because we shouldn't be having top ten warmest months during a La Nina. 

For the record, this was the 46th consecutive February with temperatures at least marginally above the 20th century average, NCEI notes. That's a pretty long lasting trend, but global warming is persistent and getting worse, it seems.

The warmth in February was especially strong in Europe, with other areas of odd warmth in parts of South America and southern Africa.

The coolest areas, relative to average were interior North America and parts of Asia, but nobody had a record cold February. 

With just two months done for the year, NOAA is already giving 2022 a 99 percent chance of being one of the top 10 warmest years on record for the world. 

For the winter as a whole, the period between December 1 and February 28, the world tied with 2015 as having the fifth warmest winter on record, reports NCEI. Each of the last eight winters are among the top ten warmest on record. Reliable data goes back nearly 150 years.

There was a little more ice in the Arctic than in recent years in February, so I suppose that's good news. Still, it was the 14th lowest ice extent since reliable satellite records began 44 years ago, notes the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Antarctica had its lowest ice extent on record for most of the month.  This is a reversal from a few years ago, as Antarctica had some of the highest ice extents on record. 

Weird Ash Cloud Smothers Paraguay

A wall of ash and dust roaring across parts of 
Paraguay earlier this week. 

As I've noted a few times lately already, the parts of South America south of the Equator (meaning all but the northern tip of the continent) have suffered a horrible, hot stormy summer.  

Punishing record heat waves have been punctuated by violent storms and torrential rains that have proved quite deadly in places like Ecuador and Argentina.  

It just got even weirder.

A huge haboob swept into large swaths of Paraguay. Haboobs are usually dust storms. This one was worse - largely ash from wildfires.

Haboobs are usually massive walls of dust, usually triggered by desert thunderstorms, that sweep across the landscape, cutting visibility often to near zero.  You might be familiar with haboobs that often strike Arizona during the summer monsoon season, when thunderstorms throw up these massive dust storms that then sweep into urban areas like Phoenix, Scottsdale and Yuma.

As the Washington Post explains: 

"Residents of southern Paraguay experienced an apocalyptic looking scene Monday when a mile-tall wall of smoke, ash and dust descended on the landscape. Day turned into night around dinnertime as the smoke blotted out the sun, extinguishing the formerly partly cloudy skies as strong winds surged through the region. The smoke, originating from wildfires in Argentina, was enough to cause streetlights to turn on and pose a respiratory danger. Residents' eyes also probably stung from ash and fine particulates."

The worst of this ash haboob hit around Ayolas, Paraguay, a city of 65,000 near the Argentine border.

As the Washington Post reports, the area of Argentina where the ash storm originated has endured two years of drought that allowed wildfires to consume almost two million acres by late February. Nearby farmland has turned to dust in the drought. 

The combination of massive areas of burned out landscape and dust bowl farmlands created the conditions for the ash haboob to form.

The part of Argentina where the haboob originated often gets intense thunderstorms, much like the Great Plains of the United States see in the spring and summer. These storms can produce hail the size of soft balls or greater, tornadoes and ferocious straight line winds. 

Intense thunderstorms formed this past week, and with all that ash just sitting there, the wall of soot was born.  Since there was so much ash mixed in, the haboob was much darker, and felt much more toxic than a regular dust haboob. 

La Nina, an atmospheric and oceanic cyclical weather pattern, often contributes to droughts in the area where the ash haboob originated. But of course chances are that climate change made this situation worse. It was likely hotter in recent months in South America than it otherwise would be without climate change.  

I don't know whether the ash haboob would have happened without climate change, but I imagine it wouldn't have been as bad as it was with it. 

Whether or not there's a strong or weak link to climate change, this ash haboob is the kind of event that sticks in the local populations' collective mind and makes them more concerned about climate change.

Examples of these kinds of weird things are increasing. Residents of the San Francisco Bay area are still weirded out by that day in September, 2020 when massive California wildfires turned the sky into an apocalyptic orange. 

Or the "Day After Tomorrow" like flash flood scenes from New York City last September from the remains of Hurricane Ida.   

What weird, awful scenes will climate change present us with next? Stay tuned! 

 Video: 

The Guardian displays views of the ash haboob in Paraguay: