El Nino Might Be Looming. That Might Turn A Climate Changed Hot World Torrid

Schematic showing how an El Nino develops.
Many climate watchers think a new El 
Nino will develop next year, possibly
causing more record high temperatures
for the world, 

 A (mostly) natural global weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean might propel global temperature to new heights next year. 

It's all about the familiar El Nino and La Nina cycle. 

In general, La Nina brings cool water to the eastern Pacific off the coast of South America.  In turn, global temperatures fall slightly. 

The opposite, El Nino, warms up those Pacific Ocean waters off of Chile and the whole world gets a little warmer. 

Which wouldn't be that big a deal without climate change.  

But climate change led to the El Nino year of 2023 becoming the hottest on record. Until 2024, when that record was broken. 

This year has brought mostly either La Nina or neutral conditions. And the good news is 2025 is turning to be cooler than last year. But barely. There's a chance it could tie 2023 as second warmest, but will probably end up at Number 3. Even if it ends up Number 3, it will be much warmer than what would become the #4 spot, 2016. 

What worries scientists, then, is 2025 barely cooled off from the hot times of the two previous years, despite a La Nina for at least part of the year. 

Now, signs are stirring that might point to a new warm El Nino in 2026. If that happens, we could get another record warm year in 2026 or 2027.  We would face even more intense deadly heatwaves, stronger floods than we've already been seeing, and worse droughts. 

The Washington Post describes the initial signs of a possible El Nino this way: 

 "Typically, winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific Ocean, forming a predictable pattern called trade winds. These trade winds cause some of the planet's warmest ocean water to pile up in the western Pacific near Papua, New Guinea and the Philippines. But a few times a year on average, winds weaken and reverse direction, blowing from west to east at about 15 mph for a few weeks - forming a westerly wind burst."

This affects an area of Pacific Ocean water south of Guam that's the hottest in the world. The westerly wind burst pushes some that water across the Pacific toward Chile. It takes two or three months for this process to happen, so the warmer water would be near the South American west coast in early 2026.

However, as WaPo explains, one westerly wind burst does  not an El Nino make. You need a few of them to get a decent El Nino going. Which means we might not get an El Nino and if we do, we don't know how strong it will be.

Stronger El Ninos have a greater effect on global temperatures than lame ones.  

For now, NOAA predicts weak La Nina conditions we had in November to continue well into this winter, but transition to neutral conditions by late winter. Than means the eastern Pacific ocean waters won't be particularly warm or cool. 

The NOAA forecast doesn't get its what might happen after early spring. 

However, the private climate consulting company Climate Impact Company is forecasting El Nino conditions to begin taking hold in the spring. The forecast is based on various computer climate models. 

The Climate Impact Company forecasts notes that the northeastern Pacific ocean has warmed up a lot recently, and that is often a precursor to an El Nino.

The World Meteorological Organization predicts that if an El Nino develops, it won't be until after April 2026. 

November was the world's third warmest on record, even with a weak La Nina. You'd think November would have been a little cooler, since La Nina has been going on for several months now. 

So you can imagine how the global heat might be turned on big time if we get an El Nino, especially if it turns out to be jumbo sized. 

he weird heat waves and big storms that keep popping up in the news seem a little terrifying now. Wait until things really heat up.