June Was World's Second Warmest As EL Nino Continues To Build

The world had its second warmest June on record this
year. With an El Nino looming, things could get
even hotter later this year. 

Continuing a trend started earlier this year, June ended up as the second warmest on record for the world, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

The world is just entering a strong El Nino, which is expected to supercharge climate warming. That could start another spate of record hottest months. 

April was the world's fourth warmest. March and May were second warmest. Now, June came in at second warmest. Will coming months be the warmest on record? There's a good chance that will happen.  

In any event, we don't need El Nino to bake the planet. It's been super toasty for the past decade, thanks to climate change. 

The ten warmest Junes have all hit since 2015. If you are under the age of 50, you've never seen a June in which the world's June temperatures were below the 20th century average. 

This June, as you'd expect, there were plenty of spots in the world that were especially warm. Those included northern Canada, western Europe, eastern Australia, much of Siberia, south central Asia. The eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean is especially hot, showing how El Nino has already strongly taken over. 

In western Europe, eight nations had their hottest temperatures on record. Not the June records. The all-time records. 

There's always a couple of pockets of cool weather, despite the overall global warmth.  For some reason, most of Antarctica was on the chilly side. We also saw a small pocket of cold air in north central Asia. It was also sort of nippy in northwest Alaska and in Montana, kind of. It was the 41st coldest June there, so not exactly frigid. 

Also, the cold blob that's been hanging around for years in the Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland and Iceland was still there. That's actually another sign of how climate change is messing with the world's weather and ocean systems. 

That Atlantic cold blob stems from extra fresh water entering the ocean from the melting Greenland ice cap. That's slowing the ocean currents that bring warmth to western Europe. 

The end of June brought us to the halfway point of the year. So far, this year is the third hottest out of the past 177 years of record. Only the first halves of 2024 and 2025 were hotter.  

NCEI says that there's a 95 percent chance that 2026 will rank among there four warmest years on record. But as Jeff Masters wrote in Yale Climate Connections, NCEI's data is designed to explicitly exclude El Nino or La Nina from that prediction. 

With El Nino now well into the picture, those almost solid 95 percent odds are even higher. 

UNITED STATES

For the continental United States, June was the 18th warmest on record. That's out of the past 133 years. 

The warmest areas, relative to average were in the Southwest and right along the Northeast coast.As noted above, Montana was the coolest, relative to average, as it was the 41st coolest out of the last 133 years in Big Sky country. 

A broad area from the northern and central Plains, the Ohio Valley and parts of the southeast were somewhere in the middle, not much above or below the long term average.

Here in Vermont, we had our 16th warmest June, according to NCEI

June was the 33rd wettest out of the past 133 years in the Lower 48. The wettest areas were in parts of the Midwest. Illinois had its sixth wettest June. Kansas saw their ninth wettest June. Other relatively wet areas were in the central and western Gulf Coast states and in northern New England. 

Vermont had its 22nd wettest June on record.   

Dry-Ish Week Continues In Vermont. Past Two Months Have Been Mostly Wet, Giving Us A Drought Cushion

Rain falls from thunderstorm clouds over Lake Champlain
as the sun shines through the rain, Photo looking west
from St. Albans, Vermont on July 10, 2025

The first part of summer in Vermont was wet, but that seems to be sputtering, at least for now. 

The last rains in the Green Mountain State were some scattered showers and thunderstorms central and south on July 4. Northwest Vermont has been dry for several days now. 

The storm that's soaking and/or will soak the Mid-Atlantic states and far southern New England won't really be a factor in Vermont. 

Forecast rainfall far south is now only expected to be a quarter inch at best. Not the half inch to an inch we previously thought might happen. That southern Vermont rain, however light, should come through later today through tomorrow morning. 

There's still a chance the storm could jog north, but don't bet the farm on that. 

Except for scattered sprinkles this afternoon, no rain is forecast after this southern Vermont episode until later Thursday and Friday when a weak cold front is expected to approach and then pass through. 

Although we could end up with some locally heavy downpours with that front, in general, rainfall isn't looking that impressive with that front, at least for now.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington
released this map today showing most of 
Vermont has had above normal rainfall over 
the last two months. Yellow area are at
least two inches above normal. Orange areas
are at least four inches on the plus side 

I'm not really worried about drought. I won't be unless weeks go by without much rain. 

These dry spells happen almost every July. And the dry weather will reduce moisture in the ground somewhat. That drying would slightly lessen the risk of flash flooding if torrential rains hit later this summer. 

But this week's dry spell hits as the last vestiges of last summer's dryness finally dissipates in Vermont. 

 The latest U.S. Drought Report, issued last Thursday, had only the tiniest stripe of Vermont encompassing just 1 percent of the state right along the Massachusetts border as "abnormally dry."  

That's the best we've been since at least the late spring of 2025.

Abnormally dry means it's sort of close to drought, but not really there. But overall, Vermont is super lucky. Judging from the latest Drought Monitor map, the only states doing as well with moisture as Vermont are Ohio, Indiana and maybe Michigan.

Rainfall for all of Vermont except parts of the far south has been above normal for the past two months. Some areas north are two inches on the plus side. This all erased lingering drought in eastern Vermont. 

Drought, or at least the maldistribution of rainfall,  has really been a thing in the United States this year. And the shifts in particular areas between flooding and drought and flooding again have been wild. 

Parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland were in pretty steep droughts prior to the deluges causing flash floods there this week, if you want an example

A huge El Nino is developing, which will really keep the weather whacky here in Vermont and in the rest of the world through the next year or so. Even wackier than the climate-changed weather weirdness we've already experienced in recent years.

In general, strong El Ninos cause very warm and dry late summers and autumns here in Vermont, though there's no guarantee that will happen, There's always exceptions. But for now, we can just hope for the increasingly rare type of Goldilocks summer in the Green Mountain State, not too dry, not too wet, not too hot, not too cold. 

The rest of this week will be sort of an imperfect Goldilocks type of period, so I guess we should all enjoy that. 

As El Nino Was Brewing, May Was World's Second Hottest On Record

May, 2026 was the world's second hottest on record.
An El Nino has started, which is expected to work 
with climate change to bring global temperatures
 to new and dangerous heights. 

 We're closing in on the end of June, and I realize I never did do my monthly fever check of the world in May 2026. 

As has been the case for years now under the onslaught of climate change, the world continues to run a very high fever.

May, 2026 was the world's second hottest on record, trailing only 2024, the NOAA's National Centers for Environment Information tells us. If you are under the age of 50, you have never seen a May in which the world was even a little cooler than average. 

Climate change has been with us for half a century, and in the past couple of decades, that has gotten more and more obvious.

The warmest places relative to average were much of the Arctic and Antarctica, central Canada and the northwest United States, western Russian, much of southwestern Asia and parts of the North Pacific.

The Pacific Ocean off the west coasts of Mexico and northwestern South American were very warm. That was a sign that El Nino was building. 

Officials declared this month that El Nino is underway. It's forecast to reach record intensity. Since El Ninos tend to warm the climate, a combination of an extreme El Nino and climate change is bad news for the next several months at least. El Nino is expected to peak this winter. 

More intense and longer heat waves, intense droughts and storms are on the horizon for many parts of Earth. Buckle your seat belts, it's going to be a rough ride. 

As usual, you could find a few cooler spots around the world. Those included centra South amerce, northeast Russia, western Australia, Southern Africa, eastern Antarctica and a portion of the North Atlantic south of Greenland. 

That "cold blob" south of Greenland is ominous, too. It's a sign that fresh water from melting glaciers in Greenland is messing with the currents in the Atlantic Ocean. If the warm currents that keep western Europe mild collapse, there could be sudden and extreme changes to the climate in Europe and elsewhere. Nobody is prepared for these changes. 

So yeah, I'm full of good news with this post.

Let's move on to how the United States has been doing. 

UNITED STATES

May, 2026 was warm out West and a little cooler
but not extremely so in the East. 

May was the 28th warmest, or 105 coolest, if you want to look at it that way, says NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

As had been the case all winter and early spring the west was on the warm side while eastern states were somewhat cooler. Three states - Washington, Oregon and Florida, had one of their top ten Mays on record. 

No state had a particularly cool May. The state that came closest to a chilly May was West Virginia, which had the 39th coolest May out of the past 131 years. Here in Vermont, it was the 51st coolest out of the past 131 years. 

The United States had its  55th driest on record, or 78th wettest May on record NCEI says. Idaho, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan had one of their top ten driest Mays on record. On the other hand, top 10 wettest May honors for 2026 go to Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana. 

Vermont, as you might remember, was also on the damp side. The Green Mountain State had its 19 wettest May out of the past 131 years. 

It won't be long until we have our June summary to see how the start of El Nino is affecting us and the rest o the world. That report should come out in mid-July.

Climate Change, Iran War And El Nino Are Painful, But Might Drive Humanity To Renewable Energy

The Iran war is causing all kinds of economic headaches
worldwide. But in the long run, it could push

As if the world's weather wasn't screwed up enough by climate change, El Nino is about to make it all worse. And Donald Trump's war of choice in Iran might well team up with El Nino to really make things scary. 

First, El Nino, a periodic warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific, seems imminent. As we've already reported, is expected to be huge.  They're calling it a super El Nino, which will make any effects from the phenomenon writ large. 

Strong El Ninos can substantially heat up the world. Earth's temperature is already near record highs thanks to climate change. If El Nino and climate change team up the way forecaster think, weather and climate disruptions in the form of record storms, record heat, massive droughts and floods could really amplify many of the problems the Iran war is causing. 

According to Lawfare:

"A climate change-fueled El Nino will amplify the growing shocks of the Iran war, many of which will unfold over the coming year even in the unlikely case that risk of renewed conflict resolves soon."

The publication noted us the situation is reminding us "That Mother Nature gets a vote on our priorities, too, and that climate resilience is inseparable from global security goals."

Even if by some miracle the Iran war ends tomorrow, the problems and potential crises remain. 

Lawfare again: 

 "Even if the strait is durably opened, it will take time to clear backlogged ships, for insurers to feel confident that transit is safe, and for damaged or shuttered oil and gas facilities to resume production. Countries would normally be stocking up on natural gas over the spring and summer for winter heating needs, and El Nino could further intensity pressure with intensified heat, electricity demand for cooling, and energy grid strips this summer

Countries in Southeast Asia are already scaling back on air conditioning, concerns that dangerous summer temperatures could crash electric grids and kill citizens."

Here in the United States, A Brown University analysis released on May 18 shows Trump's Iran war has cost American consumers $41.9 billion more at the fuel pumps since late February.

OTHER ASPECTS

This isn't just about oil and gas.

A third of global maritime nitrogen fertilizer trade are blocked due to the closed Gulf of Hormuz. Also, says Lawfare, countries that depend on Middle Eastern gas to produce their own fertilizers have shut down production. 

Also, "farmers who are planting tomorrow's food now have been forced to delay planting, switch crops, or accept subpar yields. Food security can be disrupted further as fuel and logistics costs rise, agriculture land is repurposed for newly economical biofuels, and countries potentially react with protectionism and export restrictions that spike prices further."

In the long run, this mess might undermine Trump's goal of propping up the fossil fuel industry. Oil shocks in the 1970s and 1980s, the Gulf War of 1990-91 and the Ukraine war all prompted industry to emphasize fuel efficiency. Global per capital petroleum use declined after the 1970s oil shock and never recovered noted Juan Cole in Informed Consent. 

Cole argues that the Straight of Hormuz crisis shows signs of what he calls a "chronic ailment."  Iran will probably always be tempted to develop a nuclear arsenal. Israel and the United States will probably keep striking. "In short, Israel and the United States have destabilized the Persian Gulf and global oil and natural gas supplies for the foreseeable future."

In other words, the price at the pump is going to stay annoyingly high for a long time. And that's the least of our problems. 

In the United States, Trump is still squawking drill, baby drill.  The Trump administration ended tax breaks worth up to $7,500 last year. Despite that, car buyers in the U.S. will probably keep turning more and more to EVs if gas prices stay high. 

Nations around the world see the writing on the wall.  Cole, in Informed Consent, has many examples. 

In the United Kingdom, EV sales rose a record 24% over the same month a year earlier. It helped that the average cost of  EVs in the UK are now a little less expensive there than similar gasoline-powered cars.  Europe is seeing a big jump in demand for rooftop solar systems. 

China is going through a boom in EV production. In 2024 they produce more than 12 million electric, hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles. India is building an EV future, currently building out a network of charging stations.  Pakistan has reported a boom in electric vehicle sales since the Iran war started.

Asia is especially prone to disruptions in the Persian Gulf oil pipeline, so you can see why the 4.8 billion people there are embracing an electric vehicle future. 

"Those who've fought to keep the world hooked on fossil fuels are inadvertently supercharging the global renewables boom," said Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UN's climate secretariat UNFCCC, as reported in Reuters. 

Trump's war in Iran is all bad news. For us and for Trump. With this war, Trump's goal of propping p the oil and gas industry forever might be slipping through his fingers.   

March Was World 2nd Warmest, Possibly Signaling New Hot Push, U.S., As Expected Shattered March Heat Records

March, 2026 was tied for the second warmest on
record on Earth. With an El Nino coming,
the month's temperatures could be a signal
that unprecedented hot times could
be on their way.

 The global temperatures in March were back to their old tricks, going back to second hottest on record after several months of "cooler" months that were only in third place in the hottest months list.

Even hotter, more dangerous times might be ahead in the coming months or year or two. 

Actually this March barely squeaked into second place. It was virtually tied with March, 2024. The National Centers for Environmental Information continues: 

"All March global temperature departures ranking in the top 10 during the period 1850-2026 have occurred since 2015. This month marked the 50th consecutive March with a global temperature departure above the 20th century average."

The March, 2026 global temperatures might represent an ominous reversal in ever-so-slightly cooler trends we saw over the past year or so.  La Nina, which tends to cool the global climate, put a stop to a month after month stretch of almost continuous record global heat in 2023 and 2024.

Starting last June, most months were the third warmest on record. That's scary enough, since La Nina could barely put the most unnoticeable dent in the effects of climate change. The effects of La Nina might have peaked this past winter. December, January and February were all the world's fifth warmest, respectively. 

La Nina has faded and it loos like El Nino - which generally warms the global atmosphere - might be developing. It could be a strong one, and that could send the world's temperatures skyrocketing to new, dangerous heights by next year. 

The higher the global temperatures, the higher the risk of killer heat waves, worst droughts, increasingly torrential floods and more intense, less predictable storms. 

THE DETAILS

As always in this age of climate change, cold spots were hard to find in March.  However, there was a notable very cold area in Alaska and the Yukon Territory of Canada. That area was much colder relative to average than we usually see in these monthly reports. 

The only other slightly chilly areas I could find on the NCEI maps were small areas in northwest Africa, Antarctica, the extreme southeastern Pacific ocean and northwestern Siberia.  And what is now almost a perennial area of coolness hovered over an area of the North Atlantic a little south of Greenland. 

Also, although March as a whole in Australia wasn't cold, a sharp frigid snap at the end of the month shattered decades-old March temperature records in many cities, NCEI reports. Two Australian cities reported all-time record lows. 

The most wild hot spot relative to average was the contiguous United States. I'll have more on that below. Other really notable hot spots relative to average were in the entire Arctic (north of that Alaskan cold spot), northern and eastern Europe, large areas of Asia and spots across Africa and Antarctica.

Year to date, the first three months of 2026 is so far the fourth warmest year on record. It's almost certain this year will be among the top 10 warmest on record and likely among the top five. 

As is usually the case for March, Arctic sea ice extent reached its maximum extent of the year on the 15th. It wasn't that extensive. The ice covered 5.52 million square miles, statistically tied with last year for the smallest maximum in the 48 years satellite have been keeping track, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. 

UNITED STATES

The contiguous United States was exceptionally 
warm in March, breaking records from 
coast to coast. We'll see if it's a harbinger
 of a torrid summer. 

As we have been reporting, March, 2026 was ridiculously, insanely hot in the Lower 48. Now we have the final receipts.  

NCEI tells us: 

"The average temperature over the contiguous US (CONUS), in March was 50.85 degree F, 9.35 degrees F above average, ranking as the warmest March in the 132-year record. This marks the first time any month's average temperature has exceeded 9 degrees F above its 20th-century baseline. It also includes the warmest 12-month period on record for the CONUS (April, 2025-March 2026)"

Even more remarkably, the nations average high temperature during March was 64.4 degrees, an incredible 11.4 degrees above the 20th century average. That super warm March average daily maximum was actually 0.9 degrees warmer than the average April high. 

 Ten states had their warmest March on record. They were all large states in the southwestern United States, so those made up about a quarter on the United States. Included those ten, 35 states had one of their top 10 warmest Marches on record. 

Put another way, more than 500 counties, covering more than one quarter of the Lower 48 and affecting about 79 million people, recorded their warmest March on record, NCEI tell us. 

The "coldest" state was Maine, but even they were well above normal.  Maine had their 33rd warmest March out of the past 132 years. Vermont was one of a handful of other very warm but not super warm states. The Green Mountain State had its 19th warmest March. 

Mostly because of the continuing record high temperatures in the Southwest and Rockies all year so far, January-March is also the hottest on record. 

There was one particular cold spot in the United States: Alaska. The state had its fourth coldest March out the past 102 years. The last time Alaska had a March that cold was in 1972.

The heat, relative to average, diminished a little in the United States in April, so I'm guessing we'll get a break in the month after month reports of record warmth. 

The United States also had its eight driest March on record. In general, the states that were the warmest in March were also the driest. California had its driest March on record. Eight other states in the Southwest and Southeast had one of their top ten driest Marches.

The only really wet areas was around the eastern Great Lakes. Michigan had its third wettest March. Here in Vermont, March precipitation was right around average.  

It'll be an interesting to see whether March was a prelude to an extraordinarily hot summer, or just another month that really went off the rails. 

Looming El Nino Getting More Likely To Become "Super" It Means Ever More Extreme Weather On Climate-Fatigued Planet

A forecast map for the equatorial Pacific for 
late summer an early fall shows a strong El Nino
In the box, it shows much above normal water
temperature in the central and eastern Pacific
near the equator. 

Scientists have been telling us for months now that a new El Nino global pattern is about to start. That type of thing tends to warm up the world. Combine an El Nino with climate change, and you can take the global climate to new, hot, heights. 

Now, we're being told this could well turn into a "Super El Nino" and that makes the news even more potentially grim. At least if you're not a fan of punishing droughts, super storms and dangerous, record smashing heat waves.

Yes, that sort of thing is going on already, but a Super El Nino could make things much, much worse.   

Per the Washington Post: 

"During a typical El Nino, a warming patch of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean influences what regions experience droughts, floods, extreme heat, hurricanes and declining sea ice. During relatively rare super El Nino events, happening once every 10 to 15 years on average, the effects may be stronger, more persistent and more widespread."

The Washington Post reports;

This El Nino "could break the record for El Nino intensity set in December, 20125, when sea temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific reached 2.8 degrees Celsius (5.04 degrees Fahrenheit) above average."

Each El Nino is different, because underlying natural weather patterns can affect it. And climate change makes the effects of El Nino even less certain. The effects of El Nino will probably peak during the upcoming winter. Overall,  some of those effects include:

Drought:

Sone tropical countries, like the Caribbean and Indonesia, could face serious droughts.  So could central and northern India, where a super El Nino can disrupt and even stop the annual monsoon season. Serious droughts have an excellent shot at developing in portions of Central Africa, Australia, the Philippines, Central America and northern Brazil.

The  El Nino could be really bad news for the western United States. Coming off a record warm winter, and unprecedented March heat that has already set the stage of water shortages, the El Nino could create an especially hot, dry summer in the West. 

However, El Ninos can cause unusual humidity in the West. That could lead to some beneficial rains, but also severe storms that would extend into the Plains.  Usually, the worst of the United States severe weather season usually tapers off in June, but this year, it could help extend the season longer, if the El Nino develops fast enough. 

While certain areas of the world would get much drier under a super El Nino, the overall threat of flooding in the world would increase due to higher levels of atmospheric moisture brought on by the el Nion

Storms and Hurricanes

On the bright side, the potential Caribbean and Central African droughts would be related to a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season.  Disturbances coming off the west coast of Africa would be weaker and less frequent, lessening the chances that any of them would develop into hurricanes. 

Much more importantly, El Nino would contribute to strong upper level winds in areas of the tropical Atlantic. Those strong upper winds cut wannabe hurricanes off at the pass, destroying tall thunderstorms before they can organize into a tropical storm.  

The U.S. got a break last year with no landfalling hurricanes. An El Nino could make us lucky for the second year in a row. But that comes with a big caveat. El Ninos tend to reduce the number of hurricanes. But it doesn't eliminate them. It takes only one hurricane to cause a cataclysm. We're not entirely safe. 

There will be enough cataclysms with or without hurricanes anyway. Next winter, if the strong El Nino develops, the South, including Florida, would become cool and stormy, with the risk of wintertime severe storms and tornado outbreaks. 

We'd also see an increase in flooding across Peru and Ecuador, sections of northern and eastern Africa and in the Middle East. 

Heat Waves

Virtually every place on Earth would be at risk for punishing, record heat waves. Africa, parts of the Middle East, Africa, Europe, the southern U.S. and possibly Australia would be most at risk. 

If this super El Nino does in fact get underway, 2027 has an excellent shot of becoming the hottest year on record, even besting the especially torrid 2024, the current record holder. Because of a lag between the development of an El Nino and how it affects global weather patterns, I doubt this year will be the world's warmest. 

Climate change has created a sort of step-up trend in which pretty much every El Nino creates a new record for global warmth. Between El Ninos and during La Ninas, which should cool the Earth, global temperatures tend to just level off.

"Due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, the climate system cannot effectively exhaust the heat released in a major El Nino event before the next El Nino comes along an pushes the baseline upward again," Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb said in the Washington Post. 

 VERMONT EFFECTS

It's always nearly impossible to tease out what effects an El Nino might have on a pinpoint area like Vermont. But we can give some general thoughts that aren't exactly a forecast, based on what we've seen in past super- El Ninos

The most noticeable effects here are warm winters. During the 2016 super El Nino, Burlington what was its warnest and second warmest winters on record in 2015-16 and 2016-17.  (The warmest winter is now 2023-24)

The 2015 El Nino might have helped contribute to the hottest December readings in Vermont that year, breaking records set December, 1998 during a previous strong El Nino. 

Chances are next winter won't be the kind of long, drawn out, persistently cold affair we endured this year. 

As for storms, it seems that Vermont is at a higher risk of trouble, but no guarantees. It's hard to know whether El Nino had anything to do with it, ut the Great Ice storm of January, 1998 and serious flooding in June and July of that year were doing a super El-Nino.

I also recall some spring floods during the 1982-83 El Nino, mostly along Lake Champlain due to persistent rains and snows in April and May, 1983. 

Although we had some notably wet months during the 2015-16 El Nino in Vermont, there wasn't really much in the way of serious flooding, though there were some local flash floods in the warmer months. 

 

World Had Fifth Warmest January Despite Arctic Block That Kept Parts Of Europe, U.S.

January was the worlds fifth warmest on record 
Blocking high pressure in the Arctic kept that
region exceptionally warm, while parts of 
Europe and North America were 
a little cool as a result of that blocking

It might have seemed cold locally, but the world had its fifth warmest January on record, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

"This marks the 50th consecutive January (since 1977) with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th -century average. The 10 warmest Januarys on record have occurred since 2007, with the most recent five years (2022-26),"  NCEI noted in its monthly report.    

When you look at the data and maps from this monthly report, you can really see in this report how a persistent blocking pattern messed with temperatures in the northern hemisphere. 

High pressure over the Arctic and Greenland made that area super warm compared to average. That was especially true in northern and western Greenland and northeastern Canada.

Meanwhile, this pattern squashed the frigid air in the Arctic southward. That's why the eastern United States, northern and central Europe and most of the western two thirds of Russia were on the cool side.  

The cold air was also forced to spread out over a larger land area by this pattern, helping keep the world's January as a whole cooler than it otherwise would have been overall. Also, the effects of La Nina, which tends to cool the world, would be peaking roughly about now. 

No areas came close to the coldest on record. 

Fifth hottest is still impressively warm. Given the factors above, January shouldn't have been that warm. Climate change is still ruling the roost. As we previously reported, an El Nino is brewing for later this year, and that could bring the world's temperature to new and dangerous heights late this year or in 20247. 

In January, 2026, besides the Arctic, other areas that were much warmer than normal were Africa, which had its warmest January on record. Other hot areas include central Asia, southern Australia, much of western Canada, the western United States and the Atlantic Ocean between the Caribbean and Africa. 

UNITED STATES

The data confirms it: We had a remarkable west-east divide during January. 

Data confirms the Lower 48 had a warm west and a 
cold east Note that western temperatures were
near record highs, while eastern temperatures
were generally just somewhat cooler than average.

The East had a real winter, while the West was having a year without a winter in January. As NCEI tells us: 

"Temperatures were much above average across a large portion of the western third of the (United States). Oregon, California, Utah and Arizona each had one of the six warmest starts of the year. Along with Washington, Nevada and New Mexico, they each recorded their warmest December-January period on record."

Thought the East was cold, the chill didn't come close to breaking records for the month. Ohio came the closest, ending the month as 31st coldest out of the past 132 years. Pennsylvania was 32nd coldest .

For the record, we in Vermont had our 75th coldest January, or 57th warmest January, depending on how you want to look at it. 

Mix it all together and the United States ended up having its 19th warmest January. 

Precipitation was scant, despite a wide-ranging winter storm toward the end of the month. January ended up as the eleventh driest on record for the Lower 48. The Northwest and northern Rockies were particularly dry. Oregon and Montana had their fifth driest Januaries on record. 

Only four states - Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico and Wisconsin were noticeably wetter than average and even those states did not come anywhere close to record wet.

Here in Vermont, we had our 48th driest January out of the past 132 years.  

January had a few other impressive weather events that I missed as they unfold.

On January 8 and 9 rare winter flash flooding occurred in parts of Wisconsin and Illinois amid a burst of record warmth that brought temperatures in the low 60s, and heavy rain. Up to three inches of rain fell near Chicago.  Chicago had as much rain in one day as they normally have in the entire month of January. 

Alaska had rough January. We already reported on the epic, record snows around Juneau in December and early January, which were followed by flooding. But two of Alaska's other larger cities had their own issues. 

The temperature in Fairbanks never got above zero for 32 consecutive days ending on January 14. That's the longest stretch of continuous subzero cold in more than 100 years.  Down in Anchorage, January snowfall set a record with 40.2 inches of snow.

On the warm side of things, St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands had their warmest January on record with an average temperature of 81.6 degrees.

 

El Nino Might Be Looming. That Might Turn A Climate Changed Hot World Torrid

Schematic showing how an El Nino develops.
Many climate watchers think a new El 
Nino will develop next year, possibly
causing more record high temperatures
for the world, 

 A (mostly) natural global weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean might propel global temperature to new heights next year. 

It's all about the familiar El Nino and La Nina cycle. 

In general, La Nina brings cool water to the eastern Pacific off the coast of South America.  In turn, global temperatures fall slightly. 

The opposite, El Nino, warms up those Pacific Ocean waters off of Chile and the whole world gets a little warmer. 

Which wouldn't be that big a deal without climate change.  

But climate change led to the El Nino year of 2023 becoming the hottest on record. Until 2024, when that record was broken. 

This year has brought mostly either La Nina or neutral conditions. And the good news is 2025 is turning to be cooler than last year. But barely. There's a chance it could tie 2023 as second warmest, but will probably end up at Number 3. Even if it ends up Number 3, it will be much warmer than what would become the #4 spot, 2016. 

What worries scientists, then, is 2025 barely cooled off from the hot times of the two previous years, despite a La Nina for at least part of the year. 

Now, signs are stirring that might point to a new warm El Nino in 2026. If that happens, we could get another record warm year in 2026 or 2027.  We would face even more intense deadly heatwaves, stronger floods than we've already been seeing, and worse droughts. 

The Washington Post describes the initial signs of a possible El Nino this way: 

 "Typically, winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific Ocean, forming a predictable pattern called trade winds. These trade winds cause some of the planet's warmest ocean water to pile up in the western Pacific near Papua, New Guinea and the Philippines. But a few times a year on average, winds weaken and reverse direction, blowing from west to east at about 15 mph for a few weeks - forming a westerly wind burst."

This affects an area of Pacific Ocean water south of Guam that's the hottest in the world. The westerly wind burst pushes some that water across the Pacific toward Chile. It takes two or three months for this process to happen, so the warmer water would be near the South American west coast in early 2026.

However, as WaPo explains, one westerly wind burst does  not an El Nino make. You need a few of them to get a decent El Nino going. Which means we might not get an El Nino and if we do, we don't know how strong it will be.

Stronger El Ninos have a greater effect on global temperatures than lame ones.  

For now, NOAA predicts weak La Nina conditions we had in November to continue well into this winter, but transition to neutral conditions by late winter. Than means the eastern Pacific ocean waters won't be particularly warm or cool. 

The NOAA forecast doesn't get its what might happen after early spring. 

However, the private climate consulting company Climate Impact Company is forecasting El Nino conditions to begin taking hold in the spring. The forecast is based on various computer climate models. 

The Climate Impact Company forecasts notes that the northeastern Pacific ocean has warmed up a lot recently, and that is often a precursor to an El Nino.

The World Meteorological Organization predicts that if an El Nino develops, it won't be until after April 2026. 

November was the world's third warmest on record, even with a weak La Nina. You'd think November would have been a little cooler, since La Nina has been going on for several months now. 

So you can imagine how the global heat might be turned on big time if we get an El Nino, especially if it turns out to be jumbo sized. 

he weird heat waves and big storms that keep popping up in the news seem a little terrifying now. Wait until things really heat up.  

May Was Yet World's 12th Consecutive Record Hottest Month; June Could Do It Again

Lots of red in the world temperature map for May 
Shades of red represent warmer than average areas
and the darkest red is record warmest in those locations.

 Catching up with climate statistics I had to note that climatologists think June could well be the warmest on record.  

This might be even more surprising than May's global performance as the world's 12th consecutive hottest month.

May beat the previous record set in 2020 by about a third of a degree Fahrenheit. That doesn't sound like much at all, but when you compile all the world's data, that amounts to a huge margin above the previous record level.

El Nino teamed up with climate change to boost global temperature to new heights.  El Nino heats up the eastern Pacific Ocean, and tends to make the world's overall temperature a little warmer. 

El Nino has been crashing fast, to be replaced by La Nina, which tends to cool the world's atmosphere just a little. 

So far, we haven't seen that.  There's usually a lag in which the subtle La Nina cooling begins. Climatologists are starting to tap their feet and check their watches nervously as that hasn't happened yet. 

The scientists for now are still convinced months during the second half of 2024 won't keep breaking monthly records for the world. But there's no question the heat is on forever, even if some months "only" score in the top 10 warmest.

With La Nina in the picture, there's "only" a 50/50 shot at 2024 becoming the world's hottest year on record, besting 2023, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.

We won't know until we get into July whether the current month ended up breaking the record for hottest June, obviously set just last year.

But we know May solidly broke the world record. Almost nobody on the planet had a cool May. The only pockets of "chill",  at least relative to the heat of recent years. Southern South America, western Russia, a few pockets in Antarctica, a couple areas of Greenland and a small dot in the western United States were a little on the cool side. 

If you are under the age of 48, you've never seen a May in which the overall world temperature was even a teeny, tiny bit cooler than the long term average. 

By the way, as May was the 12th consecutive record hot month, the oceans had their 14th consecutive record hot water month in May. 

With each month through May at record levels, the world as a whole had its warmest January-May stretch on record. 

The United States had its 13th warmest May out of the past 130 years.

Florida had its warmest May on record. Thirteen other states, including Vermont had one of their top 10 warmest Mays in 2024,

 

A Record-Breaking Hurricane Season? One Forecast Group Says So

A University of Pennsylvania team is forecast a 
record busy hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean
this year. It's the second major prediction that calls
for a potentially chaotic and dangerous season.

A forecasting group from the University of Pennsylvania said they expect a record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season with perhaps 33 named storms.  

If you think I've already written about a hurricane forecast this year, you're right. A  Colorado State University forecast issued in early April which said 23 tropical storms or hurricanes were in the cards for the Atlantic Ocean this summer and autumn. 

The newer University of Pennsylvania hurricane forecast that just came out is in line with, but definitely more ominous than that Colorado State University prediction. 

The forecast from the University of Pennsylvania team, led by climatologist Michael Mann, actually has a forecast of between 27 and 39 named storms, but 33 is their more pinpointed forecast. If there's 33 named storms, that would exceed the current record for the most number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean in a single season. That was a total of 30 such storms in 2020.

An average season produces about 14 Atlantic storms, about half of which become hurricanes. Seven of the past eight years have been busier than normal hurricane seasons. Warm ocean waters - probably with climate change contributing - have helped force these storms. 

THE REASONING

One big reason for Mann & Co's bullish 2024 hurricane forecast is the already hot water in the Atlantic Ocean in the region where most hurricane develop. Per the Washington Post: 

"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects a marine heat wave, or sea surface temperature well above normal, to continue in the tropical Atlantic through at least September. That has forecasters concerned about an active hurricane season because warmer ocean waters typically increase the intensity of storms."

Another reason why the team at the University of Pennsylvania think this year is going to be a blockbuster for hurricanes is that El Nino is rapidly falling apart. El Nino is a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean.  That warming contributes to strong upper level winds in the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean.

Those strong upper level winds tear apart thunderstorms that are the building blocks for tropical storms and hurricanes. Rip apart those thunderstorms and you rip apart the chances they'll grow into a hurricane  

Long range forecasts for the summer and fall call for the opposite of El Nino, which is La Nina. That consisted of coolish water in the eastern Pacific and calmer upper level winds over the Atlantic. That would more likely allow tropical storms and hurricanes to form. 

If La Nina fails to develop, the number of expected hurricanes in the Atlantic would decrease this year, Mann says. But only a little. That hot water out there would still contribute to storms. 

TRACK RECORD

Here's something that might make people who don't like hurricanes more nervous. The University of Pennsylvania hurricane predictions in most recent years have more often than not predicted fewer such storms than what actually developed. 

Last year, the University of Pennsylvania team predicted 16 tropical storms and hurricanes. We ended up with 20. Luckily the majority of those missed populated land areas.

In that blockbuster year of 2020, University of Pennsylvania predicted 20 storms, ten less than the Atlantic actually produced.

The last time University of Pennsylvania sort of predicted too many storms was in 2016. They anticipated 19 storms and we got 15. Even so, 2016 was within their margin of error. They actually said there would be 19 storms that year, plus or minus four. 

WHERE THEY GO

What really matters, of course, is where hurricanes go after they form. If they have an opportunity to head north well off the coast and hit cold water in the North Atlantic, then no problem. They just go up there and die.

If a strong Bermuda High is north of a hurricane and that high pressure system extends its influence into the United States, chances are the hurricane would head into the Gulf of Mexico. At that point, anything from Florida to Texas could take a hit, or the storm could just divert to Mexico instead. It depends on the steering patterns over the Gulf. 

If there's a dip in the jet stream in the central United States, that dip could steer a hurricane into the East Coast. If that dip in the jet stream is right along or just off the East Coast, chances are that hurricane would be steered safely out to sea. It all depends on the weather pattern when the hurricane is roaming around out there. 

Of course, the more hurricanes there are, the greater the chance that some will hit land. Which is why the University of Pennsylvania forecast is so worrying. 

Already the Atlantic Ocean is beginning and to throw hints of what might be to come. The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday they were monitoring a swirling disturbance in the east central Atlantic Ocean. 

It looked like a nascent tropical storm, though strong upper level winds were forecast to destroy the small storm before it could grow much.  That one was a fizzle, but soon enough, we'll start having tropical storms and hurricanes that could spell trouble. 

 

March Was World's 10th Consecutive Record Hot Month

I'm sounding a bit like a broken record here, but for the 10th month in a row, I'm telling you the world just had a new record for warmest March,  at least since they started keeping track of such things.   

Another very red global climate map, another
record warm month in March, 2024 for Planet Earth. 

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information said this March was just a hair above the previous record set in 2016. This was the 48th consecutive March that was warmer than the long term average. 

The data sets for NCEI goes back 175 years, so we know it's was the hottest March since at least 1850.  But climate scientists believe the last time the world was this warm was about 125,000 years ago. 

Before my time, that's for sure. 

NCEI says there's a 55 percent chance this year will outdo 2023 and become the world's hottest year on record. There's a 99 percent chance it'll be among the top five warmest.

The reason NCEI gives this year about a 50-50 chance of being hottest despite the first three months breaking records by pretty big margins is El Nino.

Or rather the demise of it. El Nino is rapidly falling apart, to be replaced by La Nina.  

La Nina on balance cools the Earth slightly. That means subsequent months this year might not break new record for hottest ever. Because of climate change, though, months going forward will be among the hottest on record, no matter what happens with La Nina.

With El Nino rapidly fading, you can see cracks in the 10-month long stretch of global record warmth.  Oceans were the warmest on record in March, but land areas were just fourth warmest. But combine oceans and land, you still get a record warm March on Earth. 

As in the previous ten months, very warm conditions relative to average covered huge areas of the globe. These include almost all of Africa, Europe and South American, along with eastern North America, eastern Asia and eastern Australia.

You'd be hard-pressed to find anyplace that was cooler than average in March.  Cool areas relative to average were pretty much limited to  parts of Antarctica, which is interesting, western Australia and a little patch of the North Atlantic just south of Iceland.

That cool patch off of Iceland is not a good sign. This "cold blob" has been often re-appearing in this region for the better part of a decade now. 

There are conflicting theories on this. Some of it could be cold fresh water melting off of Greenland in ever-greater quantities.  Cold, salty water is dense, so it sinks, and warmer water goes over the top of it. But cold fresh water doesn't sink like salty water does, so that could be part of the issue.

However, the cold blob is often there in the winter, when there is virtually no melting from Greenland. 

Increased winds in the region might also encourage the cold blob. However, scientists say those higher regional winds are also a sign of climate change. 

As usual, other climate monitoring organizations agreed closely with NCEI. 

The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service last Tuesday released their assessment, also with the news that March globally was the warmest on record. 

The Washington Post's account of Tuesday's Copernicus report has a Vermont connection worth noting. The hotter air, the fact that the Atlantic Ocean has heated up so much, has implications for us in the coming months, even if upcoming months turn out to be not quite the hottest ever.

Says WaPO:

"'It should be eye-catching - we are going toward uncharted territory,' said Gillian Gilford, the lead of the Vermont Climate Assessment and a professor at the University of Vermont who reviewed the report. 'It's rather unusual we see such an increased temperature over months and seasons.'

She added that the warmer waters of the Atlantic in particular can lead to larger storms and a more intense hurricane season. It's could also lead, she said, to more storms dumping more water in places like Vermont, in the northeastern United States, which saw intense flooding last summer."

Warmer ocean water adds additional moisture to the atmosphere, which can blow inland and crate serious floods. 

To calm fears, I must say the hot Atlantic is no guarantee Vermont will see additional big floods this spring and summer. Specific weather patterns would need to draw that super saturated air our way. 

We don't know what will happen this summer. For all we know, we in Vermont could have a dry summer if persistent winds come from the dry west or north.  It seems like the wet times are often wetter and the dry times are drier than they used to be. 

The point being with our ever hotter world, expect more surprises and more weather extremes.  Even if a particular month is not the warmest on record for planet Earth. This will go on for the rest of your lives and beyond.   

Ocean Temperatures Have Gone Full Year At Record High Temperatures, Worrying Scientists

An Atlantic Ocean sunrise on an usually warm 
morning in Bethany Beach, Delaware, December, 2022.
Oceans worldwide are now experiencing
record high temperatures. 

The world's oceans have been at record warm levels now for over a  year.  

They have been gradually warming under the influence of climate change, but for the past year, they've heated up at a much faster rate. The oceans are hotter than ever, by a long shot. 

That's bad news for us humans. Hotter oceans make hurricanes, typhoons and other storms that eventually hit land stronger and more destructive. 

The hotter oceans put more water vapor into the air, sometimes helping to turn downpours on land into catastrophic flooding torrents of rain.

The record ocean temperatures are also screwing up food chains in all that water, which could have effects on world food supplies.

So what gives?

Scientists aren't sure, but they are concerned, as Elizabeth Kolbert noted in The New Yorker:

"'We don't really know what's going on,' said Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies told me. 'And we haven't known what's going on since about March of last year.' He called the situation 'disquieting.'"

As Wired noted, ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are already where they should be in June. That's the start of hurricane season, and those warm temperatures now are theoretically enough to support a tropical storm or hurricane, 

"It's really getting to be strange that we're just seeing the records break by this much, and for this long,' said Brian McNoldy, a University of Miami hurricane researcher.

Scientists are wondering if the year-long unprecedented global ocean heat wave is just a blip, an outlier in what has been a gradual warming of the oceans created by climate change? Or is something else going on?  

Kolbert in the New Yorker again:

"For the last twelve months, the seas have been so feverish that scientists are starting to worry about not just the physical impacts of all that heat but the theoretical implications. Can the past year be explained by what's already known about climate change, or are there forces at work that haven't been accounted for? And if it's the latter, does this mean the projections for warming, already decidedly grim, are underestimating the dangers?"

Explanations are mostly speculation at this point.  

El Nino usually makes both Earth's atmosphere and oceans warmer. And we've been in an El Nino for the past year. But the oceans have warmed in the past year much more than we'd expect from an El Nino.

An enormous volcanic eruption in the South Pacific back in 2022 released a huge amount of water vapor high into the atmosphere. That might have temporarily added a little heat to the world. The solar cycle is now active. Perhaps that's contributing a little to heating the world, including its oceans. 

And as I've previously reported on, environmental regulations have sharply reduced sulfur emissions from ships, which meant there was less pollution in the air to block the sun. Or this past year's hot oceans could be just a weird blip, some sort of odd natural variability.  Or some or all of the above.

Nobody is really sure. 

Kolbert's New Yorker article says a good test is coming up to help determine whether we should panic over the oddly hot seas.

El Nino is transitioning to the cooler La Nina ocean and weather pattern.  Normally, La Nina tends to blunt the effects of climate change a bit by having a cooling influence on both the lower atmosphere and the oceans. 

If La Nina brings ocean temperatures more in line toward what scientist had expected, then we can breathe a slight, partial sigh of relief.  

In recent days, scientists have started to notice global sea temperatures hinting at a cooling as El Nino fades, but the ocean warmth is still at record heights.  

There is precedence for a big spike in ocean temperatures like we're seeing now. El Ninos in the 1940s brought ocean temperatures from well below normal to a fair amount above normal.  The increase in temperature back then was of a similar scale we're seeing now.

The trouble is, climate change had made oceans warmer. So the latest El Nino appears to have taken a much warmer than normal ocean system and brought those temperatures to extreme heights. 

The New Yorker said that Susan Wijffels, a senior scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution thinks the real test will be over the next 12 months. "If temperatures remain very high, then I would say more people in the community will be really alarmed and say, 'OK, this is outside of what we can explain.'"

Oceans that stay hotter than climatologists had expected can can create a "positive feedback" in which the warmth causes more warmth. Wired explains: 

 "....when the surface warms, it creates a cap of hot water, blocking the nutrients in colder waters below from mixing upwards. 

Phytoplankton need those nutrients to properly grow and sequester carbon, thus mitigating climate change. If warming-induced stratification gets bad enough, 'we don't see what we would call a spring bloom,; says Dennis Hansel, an oceanographer from the University of Miami. 'Those are much harder to make happen if you don't bring nutrients back up to the surface rot support the growth of those algae." 

Whether or not oceans come off their big fever in the past year, those seas will continue to be a growing problem for us in the decades to come. The upward temperature trend will continue, causing more storms and sea level rise. We just don't know how fast that upward trend will become. 

February Was World's 9th Consecutive Warmest On Record Month

Lots of red again, this time on the temperatures across
the world in February, relative to long term averages.

NOAA confirmed on Thursday what everybody pretty much knew:  

This year featured the world's hottest February on record. It was the ninth month in a row that turned out to be a record hot month for Earth, this according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

That's quite a trend. I know that El Nino boosted global temperatures. But it wasn't the strongest El Nino ever, that's for sure. Which means climate change almost surely influenced things, which of course isn't exactly shocking news these days. 

Ominously, in February, it seemed the oceans were generally the hottest relative to average. The places on Earth that featured temperatures the furthest above normal were the tropical, equatorial and eastern Atlantic Ocean;  the northern and eastern Indian Ocean and parts of the central Pacific Ocean.

I used the word "ominously" because warm oceans tend to create more powerful hurricanes, stronger non-tropical storms and heavier rain on land. We'll be hearing plenty of news for the rest of this year about intense floods, typhoons, hurricanes and other severe weather. 

On that land, the warmest places relative to 20th century averages were western Europe, eastern and southern Asia, most of South America,  the southern half of Africa and parts of central and eastern North America. 

As always, there were a handful of cool areas, but they were extraordinarily few and far between, as they have been for months. 

The cool spots relative to average were small parts of the the southeastern Pacific Ocean, a little patchy the southwestern Indian Ocean, in around the Koreas, a mini little  patch between Iceland and Greenland.  

Given the fact that December, January and February were each the world's warmest on record, it's obvious that meteorological winter (December 1-February 29) was also the hottest on record. Yes, I know in the southern half of Earth, that period was the hottest summer on record. 

This is one month where everything "matched" globally and locally.  Both United States and Canada had their warmest winter on record, too.  We did, too, here in Vermont. 

With El Nino fading and a likely opposite La Nina looming, our long string of record warm months will probably end soon. 

La Ninas tend to cool the Earth a bit, which is the opposite effect El Nino has.

If recent past history is any guide, the coming months in the next year or two won't be that much cooler. Most of them will probably score in the top five warmest, just as they did during the "cool" La Nina of 2000-2022,

Climate change will keep heating us up unrelentingly. Expect plenty more instances of extreme weather, with or without any kind of El Nino. 

NOAA Confirms: U.S. February, And Whole Winter, Was Insanely Warm

Winter in the United States was the warmest on record.
States shown in dark red with the number 129 had their
warmest winter on record. Dark orange states were
much warmer than average and light orange states
were moderately warm, compared to average.

We certainly weren't the only ones here in Vermont who had the warmest winter on record.  

We recently got confirmation - as if we needed it - that the U.S. winter was toastiest on record. 

FEBRUARY DATA

The year without a U.S. winter was driven in large part by an absolutely insane February in large sections of the nation. 

February was the nation's third warmest on record out of the past 130 years. Combined with a somewhat warm January and a superheated December, the United States ended up having what was easily the warmest winter on record, says NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri and Wisconsin had their warmest February on record. Eighteen other states, including Vermont, had one of their top five warmest Februaries on record. 

February for most of the nation was dry.  Most areas away from the flooded and snowed under West Coast and Rocky Mountains had a break from the storminess of December and January. 

No states had their driest February but several came very close. Five states - Illinois, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine - had their second driest February out of the past 130 years of record. 

So much for February. What about winter as a whole?

HOT WINTER

The winter of 2023-24 averaged 37.6 degrees for the Lower 48.  That was 0.82 degrees above the previous record  for the hottest winter set in 2015-16. That doesn't sound like a wide margin. But if you take in all those states, all those weather stations over those 91 days of meteorological winter, that margin is enormous. 

It turns out it was the biggest margin from one year to next warmest year in the entire 129 year database of winter temperatures. 

The individual states that reported the warmest winter on record are usually known for their winter chill. The states that enjoy or endured their warmest winter on record were North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. 

It looks like 29 additional states had one of their top ten warmest winters on record.

It won't be just the United States that had the warmest winter on record. The world as a whole will almost certainly turn out to have had the toastiest winter in memory.  Complete information was just coming out on Thursday, and I'll have an update on that soon. 

Meanwhile, back here in the United States, The first half of March has been warm in most states.  This won't be the hottest March on record. That honor for most of the Lower 48 goes to the insane month of March, 2012.

But despite some incursions of chilly air expected from Canada in different parts of the United States, meteorological spring is off to a rather toasty start, too. 

 

Some Forecasters Worry About Potential Big Hurricane Season '24 But There's Caveats

Some forecasters are worries that Atlantic hurricane 
season of 2024 will be busy.  But that all depends
on whether forecasts stay accurate, and where
those eventual hurricanes go 

 There's been some rumblings in the weather news world about a possible hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season this year.  

I've got the reality in this post.  Probably good to know if you live in a hurricane prone area of the United States. Or even an inland area that can get nailed with severe flooding from an ex-hurricane that has moved inland.  

Vermont readers: That can mean us. See: Great New England Hurricane of 1938 and Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. 

The bottom line is that a combination of super hot water already simmering in the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes tend to form and a waning El Nino has forecasters nervous. But not panicked. 

HERE'S WHY

First: The hot water. The near-record to record warm sea surface temperatures extend all the way fro the African coast to the Caribbean. 

As the Washington Post explains,  the area of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes are most likely to develop is running hot. At last check, this area is running 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit higher than any other year on record, says Philip Klotzbach, a tropical meteorologist at Colorado State University.

 If the above normal temperatures in this broad area continue, a disturbance coming off the African coast has plenty of opportunity to strengthen on its long journey westward. 

All other things being equal, warm water helps hurricanes grow. The hotter the water, the hotter the hurricane, unless atmospheric conditions somehow interfere with the storm's development. 

El Nino, that periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean, can easily create atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic that can muck up a wannabe hurricane's fight for survival. El Nino often produces stronger upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean. Those strong winds rip apart thunderstorms that are the initial ingredients for hurricanes. 

Or a hurricane can run into that buzzsaw of high winds and weaken into oblivion as a result. 

The problem now is that El Nino is widely expected to fall apart this spring, possibly to be replaced by the opposite La Nina by summer and autumn.  That's the peak of hurricane season.

La Nina does the opposite of El Nino, tending to calm upper level winds in the Atlantic.  Which gives hurricanes "permission" to grow. 

Of course, it's still well before hurricane season, and a lot can change. 

Perhaps we might find increased levels of dust blowing from the Saharan desert westward into the skies over the Atlantic Ocean. That would dim the sun, blunting the warming that's now going on in the water.

Maybe the forecast of a dying El Nino is wrong. Forecasters say conditions favor El Nino ending, but it's not any kind of guarantee.

What matters most is where hurricanes go.  If you get a bunch of strong hurricanes, but they curve harmlessly northward and die over the cold North Atlantic without hitting land, then who cares?

The problem obviously comes when a strong hurricane hits land somewhere. There's no good way to know this early in the year where hurricanes will hit. In fact, we usually have no idea of a hurricane's future path until after it actually forms. 

WHAT TO DO NOW 

The advice for anybody living in a hurricane prone area now is to just think about how to fortify your property against hurricanes. Does your insurance policy cover all aspects of hurricanes, including wind damage, storm surge and inland flooding? 

Insurance in many hurricane prone areas is very expensive, hard to get and doesn't provide adequate coverage. Unfortunately, you might have to plan for that. 

If you can afford it, you should probably have a "hurricane fund" set aside that you can dip into to cover expenses associated with these storms. 

You have to think about transportation and lodging if you end up under evacuation orders, buying supplies to gird your property against approaching hurricanes, and money to cover repairs not covered by insurance. 

Also, think about where you'd go if forced to evacuate.  And what you'll need in your home during a hurricane if you don't evacuate. Things like adequate food that you can prepare even if you have no power, non-perishable goods that can survive safely without refrigerations. And don't forget stuff for your pets. 

The chances of a strong hurricane hitting a particular spot on the U.S. coastline is low. But the chances of a big hurricane hitting somewhere in the U.S. is reasonably high.  This year, those chances appear a little higher than in many past years. 

Also, ignore the hype.  It's true forecasters are concerned about the upcoming hurricane season. But the social media hype machine takes it to a whole unreasonable new level. I've seen things already from clickbait that "guarantees" massive hurricane destruction in the U.S. later this summer and fall.

Spoiler: There are no guarantees. 

Even legitimate weather publications are guilty of clickbait. A recent headline: "AccuWeather Sounds Alarm Bells: Super-Charged Hurricane Season Possible in 2024."

Then if you take the time to read the actual AccuWeather article, it's reasonable, accurate and doesn't contain scare tactics.  So take your time with these articles. 

I also can't part without bringing up my favorite target. Climate change.  A big reason why the Atlantic is so hot to begin with is because the world is warmer as we continue to belch greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. 

Ocean temperatures will always fluctuate, but the trend will be up, up, up as the years and decades go by. So this worry over super big hurricanes won't be one-off just for 2024.