March Was World's 10th Consecutive Record Hot Month

I'm sounding a bit like a broken record here, but for the 10th month in a row, I'm telling you the world just had a new record for warmest March,  at least since they started keeping track of such things.   

Another very red global climate map, another
record warm month in March, 2024 for Planet Earth. 

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information said this March was just a hair above the previous record set in 2016. This was the 48th consecutive March that was warmer than the long term average. 

The data sets for NCEI goes back 175 years, so we know it's was the hottest March since at least 1850.  But climate scientists believe the last time the world was this warm was about 125,000 years ago. 

Before my time, that's for sure. 

NCEI says there's a 55 percent chance this year will outdo 2023 and become the world's hottest year on record. There's a 99 percent chance it'll be among the top five warmest.

The reason NCEI gives this year about a 50-50 chance of being hottest despite the first three months breaking records by pretty big margins is El Nino.

Or rather the demise of it. El Nino is rapidly falling apart, to be replaced by La Nina.  

La Nina on balance cools the Earth slightly. That means subsequent months this year might not break new record for hottest ever. Because of climate change, though, months going forward will be among the hottest on record, no matter what happens with La Nina.

With El Nino rapidly fading, you can see cracks in the 10-month long stretch of global record warmth.  Oceans were the warmest on record in March, but land areas were just fourth warmest. But combine oceans and land, you still get a record warm March on Earth. 

As in the previous ten months, very warm conditions relative to average covered huge areas of the globe. These include almost all of Africa, Europe and South American, along with eastern North America, eastern Asia and eastern Australia.

You'd be hard-pressed to find anyplace that was cooler than average in March.  Cool areas relative to average were pretty much limited to  parts of Antarctica, which is interesting, western Australia and a little patch of the North Atlantic just south of Iceland.

That cool patch off of Iceland is not a good sign. This "cold blob" has been often re-appearing in this region for the better part of a decade now. 

There are conflicting theories on this. Some of it could be cold fresh water melting off of Greenland in ever-greater quantities.  Cold, salty water is dense, so it sinks, and warmer water goes over the top of it. But cold fresh water doesn't sink like salty water does, so that could be part of the issue.

However, the cold blob is often there in the winter, when there is virtually no melting from Greenland. 

Increased winds in the region might also encourage the cold blob. However, scientists say those higher regional winds are also a sign of climate change. 

As usual, other climate monitoring organizations agreed closely with NCEI. 

The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service last Tuesday released their assessment, also with the news that March globally was the warmest on record. 

The Washington Post's account of Tuesday's Copernicus report has a Vermont connection worth noting. The hotter air, the fact that the Atlantic Ocean has heated up so much, has implications for us in the coming months, even if upcoming months turn out to be not quite the hottest ever.

Says WaPO:

"'It should be eye-catching - we are going toward uncharted territory,' said Gillian Gilford, the lead of the Vermont Climate Assessment and a professor at the University of Vermont who reviewed the report. 'It's rather unusual we see such an increased temperature over months and seasons.'

She added that the warmer waters of the Atlantic in particular can lead to larger storms and a more intense hurricane season. It's could also lead, she said, to more storms dumping more water in places like Vermont, in the northeastern United States, which saw intense flooding last summer."

Warmer ocean water adds additional moisture to the atmosphere, which can blow inland and crate serious floods. 

To calm fears, I must say the hot Atlantic is no guarantee Vermont will see additional big floods this spring and summer. Specific weather patterns would need to draw that super saturated air our way. 

We don't know what will happen this summer. For all we know, we in Vermont could have a dry summer if persistent winds come from the dry west or north.  It seems like the wet times are often wetter and the dry times are drier than they used to be. 

The point being with our ever hotter world, expect more surprises and more weather extremes.  Even if a particular month is not the warmest on record for planet Earth. This will go on for the rest of your lives and beyond.   

Hot Worldwide Winter Ending With Many More Record Heat Waves

Daffodil shoots emerge in St. Albans, Vermont on 
February 12, 2024 during what could well turn out
to be the warmest winter on record. Winter heat
records have been falling like dominoes worldwide.

 As meteorological winter approaches its close in the Northern Hemisphere, heat records everywhere on Earth  continue to fall like dominoes. 

Like the opposite extreme of the "Year Without A Summer" in 1816, a few spots, such as parts of Europe, sections of Japan, the Upper Midwest of the United States and parts of southern Canada are experiencing "The Year Without A Winter."  

I wouldn't quite call it the Year Without a Winter in Vermont.

But at least as measure in Burlington, we have a good chance of having the warmest meteorological winter on record. Meteorological winter runs from December 1 to February 29.

The winter heat is everywhere. We already told you about how the world had its hottest December and its hottest January. If globally, the second half of February is anything like the first half, we'll have another record hot month. 

The warmth is everywhere. In the air and in the oceans 

Oceans have been running super hot for a year now

Says The Guardian:

"'We are seeing rapid temperature increases in the ocean, the climate's largest reservoir of heat,' said Dr. Joe Hirschi, the associate head of marine systems modeling at the UK National Oceanography Centre. 'The amplitude by which previous sea surface temperature record were beaten in 2023 and now 2024 exceed expectations, though understanding why this is, is the subject of ongoing research."

Oceans release heat to the atmosphere, which can easily increase the punch and severity of storms, including hurricanes. What goes on in the oceans doesn't stay in the oceans. 

As for air temperatures, January was the ninth month in a row that set a record for warmest on record for Earth as a whole. Now it appears February seems headed in that direction as well. 

The Guardian again:  

"The first half of February shocked weather watchers. Maximiliano Herrera, who blogs on Extreme Temperatures Around the World, described the surge of thousands of meteorological station heat records as 'insane,' 'total madness' and 'climate history rewritten.' What astonished him was not just the number of records but the extent by which many of them surpassed anything that went before."

The heat is on everywhere. 

No fewer than 90 weather stations in Japan reported their warmest February temperatures on record in the past week. Hong Kong established new monthly records for warmth in December, January and February. 

That's just two of so many examples. Herrera said on X, formerly Twitter that as of February 19, weather stations in an astounding 176 nations have broken all time record highs for the month of February.  More February records will probably fall, probably including in the United States. 

The Washington Post is calling the season in the Upper Midwest as the "Lost Winter."  Normally frigid cities like International Falls, Minnesota, Fargo, North Dakota, Sault Ste Marie, Michigan and Green Bay, Wisconsin will end up breaking the records for warmest winter by a wide margin. 

The warm winter of '24 in the Midwest looks like it will go out with a toasty bang.  It'll be warm all week in the region, but by Monday, things looks to get really out of control warm. As of Tuesday, forecasts call for a high next Monday of 70 degrees in Des Moines, 68 in Yankton, South Dakota, and 74 in Kansas City, Missouri.  

Even during this climate-induced heat, it has to be cold somewhere. After all, extremes are becoming more common. 

Herrera, that extreme temperatures tracker dude, noted that an area of northwest China abruptly switched from recorded winter warmth to a new all time cold record for Xinjiang Province.

It got down to 62 below Fahrenheit, just 48 hours after it was a pretty tolerable 29 degrees above. The asterisk here is that weather station is new, and might be subject to local terrain features that make it colder. Which means in the past, it might have been colder than -62. Still, such a temperature is awful, no matter how you look at it.

Climatologists still mostly believe the extreme heat the world has seen in the past year will cool a tiny bit as El Nino fades. (Remember, El Nino tends to elevate world temperatures.)

But that "cooling" will still be far, far warmer than what we experienced in the 20th century. Even if we see a full blown, strong La Nina hit later this year, heat records will continue to fall - just perhaps not at the volume it's happening this winter. 

El Nina and La Nina come and go, but climate change is here for the foreseeable future. 

VERMONT HEAT

We in Vermont have missed out on the real heat extremes this winter, at least for the most part. We haven't had any all-time record high temperatures.  But the warmth has been consistent.

As noted, we have and excellent chance of establishing a new record for warmest winter. Although it's been chilly the past couple days, another warm spell starts today.  Aside from a brief intrusion of Arctic air Friday night through Saturday night, it looks like it will be unseasonably warm in Vermont through the end of the month. 

This will mean that the four warmest winters on record as measured in Burlington have all happened since 2015-16. The fifth warmest was recent, too - in 2001-02.

We also have a shot at having only the second winter on record without any subzero temperatures in Burlington. So far, the coldest it's gotten this winter is 3 above zero. 

There is a small chance it could go below zero Saturday night before the warm spell resumes, we'll have to wait and see on that. 

It might also go below zero in March. Burlington has seen subzero temperatures in March as late as 29th. Long range forecasts call for above normal temperatures around Vermont into the first week of March.

But any way you slice it, we've come as close as we've ever come to a Year Without A Winter.

Also, with climate change, if this winter turns out to be the warmest on record, I doubt that record will last all that long. The chances are high that we'll have another winter, warmer than this one, within a decade or less. 

 

 

Now It's Confirmed: World Was Insanely Hot In September

We got confirmation Friday that the world had by far
it's hottest September on record. Just a patch
near the tip of South America and a pinpoint
northeast of Greenland were on the cool side.

 As promised in an earlier post, when I said there would be updates,  NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information gave us big time confirmation that September's global heat was just insane. 

NCEI said September was the world's hottest September by a wide margin. Here's some perspective they provided: 

"'September, 2023 was the fourth month in a row of record-warm global temperatures,' said NOAA Chief Scientist Dr. Sarah Kapnick. 'Not only was it the warmest September on record, it was far and away the most atypically warm months of any (emphasis theirs, not mine) in NOAA's 174 years of climate keeping. To put it another way, September, 2023 was warmer than the average July from 2001-2010."

July is normally the world's hottest month of the year, despite the fact it is mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere. The Julys in 2001-2010 were also warmer than the long term average, thanks to global climate change. So September's figures are really a big, big deal. 

September globally was 2.59 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th century average for the month. That might not sound like much.  But the world is so vast with such variable weather that month to month and year to year changes are very small.

In recent years, if a month breaks a record for hottest on record, it does so by exceeding the previous mark buy less than a degree Fahrenheit.  This is why I said in that earlier post that scientists are gobsmacked by September's figures. 

It definitely was the highest monthly temperature anomaly - "which indicates how much warmer or cooler temperatures are from the long-term average - of any month on record," said NCEI.

Given that September was so warm globally, it was hard to find any areas that were cooler than average, or at least near normal. The only cooler than average spots I could find was a patch in the Pacific Ocean around the southern tip of South America. And a tiny patch of Arctic Ocean northeast of Greenland. That's about it. 

Africa, Europe, North and South America and Antarctica had their hottest September on record.  The cold spots maybe were Asia and the Arctic, which only had their second warmest September. 

Ocean surface temperatures also set a record high for September, which was the sixth month in a row a record was set. 

I've been tracking these monthly global climate statistics for years, decades, really, and I've never seen anything remotely like this. 

As I like to do every month, I like to remind you the last time the world had a slightly cooler than average month. If you are younger than 44.5 years old, you've never seen a cooler than average global month. If you are younger than 49, you've never seen a globally cooler than average September. 

The fact that September was so bonkers warm means that 2023 is definitely in line to become the world's hottest year on record. July and August were also the hottest months on record. The extreme September seems to have sealed the deal. NCEI is now saying that there's more than a 99 percent cache that this year will be the world's hottest year.

As mentioned in my earlier post, El Nino is working in concert with climate change to really boost global temperatures this  year.  El Nino should end temporarily within the next one or two years, and that will sort of turn some of the heat down.

But only a tiny bit. As Yale Climate Connections reported in an  update, when El Nino ends, global temperatures should temporarily fall by only 0.2 to 0.3 degrees Celsius. That will bring us down to levels that are still warmer than anything before 2015 or so. 

  

 

 

In One Of World's Hottest Years, 2022 In UK Was Off The Charts

United Kingdom had its hottest year on record in 2022.
Other nations might follow suit, and globally, 2022
will be among the top 10 hottest. Where the world
ranks will be known for sure by the middle of this month.

 We won't begin to get great data just yet on how 2022 stacked up in the list of world's hottest years.

So far, the expectation is it certainly won't be the hottest year ever, but still will crack the top 10, probably somewhere between sixth and eighth hottest. Pretty remarkable for a year with a La Nina, which tends to cool the world a bit. 

The United Kingdom, though, came in with a scorching hot year.  The UK has been keeping track of temperatures since 1659, the longest period of instrumental data in the world.

After all those years, 2022 will be the hottest, according to provisional data from the UK Met Office.  The Met Office is the British equivalent to the National Weather Service in the U.S. 

As the Met Office reports:

"Dr. Mark McCarthy is the head of the Met Office's National Climate Information Centre. He said, '2022 is going to be the warmest year on record for the UK. While many will remember the summer's extreme heat, what has been noteworthy this year has been the relatively consistent heat through the year, with every month except December being warmer than average.'"

Every month of 2022 was warmer than average in the UK, with the exception of December, which looks like it will be a little cooler than average. That's thanks to a cold snap during the first half of the month. 

As the year closed, it was unusually warm in the UK, and as the New Year began, unprecedented winter warmth spread into most of the rest of Europe. 

Several other European nations might have also had their warmest year in 2022.  If the way 2023 is beginning continues, those records won't last all that long.

Data is starting to come in regarding how 2022 ranked globally, and we'll have a very good idea of that ranking by the middle of this month. 

I'll keep you posted.