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NOAA is leaning toward a milder than normal winter
in the South and East. Here in Vermont, I doubt
it will be as toasty as last winter, which was
the warmest on record. |
Every year, countless people and organizations try to read the tea leaves to tell us in advance what kind of winter we'll have.
The forecasts are very often wrong, but whatever. I guess it's fun to try.
For a change, there's one certainty in the winter forecast for Vermont that we haven't seen in other years: I almost guarantee this winter will be colder than last.
That's because last winter was the warmest on record, and in much of the Champlain Valley, it never even got below zero last go around.
But will it be just a tiny bit cooler than last winter, but still warm? Or will the bottom drop out of the thermometers in December, January and February?
Dunno, since long range forecasts are often super unrelaible.
But let's see what the pundits have to say.
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NOAA is forecasting a La Nina winter, which is a cold phase for water in the eastern Pacific Ocean that influences much of the weather around the world.
That means says NOAA, that chances in general favor warmer than average temperatures in the southern and eastern United States and with colder than average weather in the Northwest.
Precipitation under NOAA's scenario would be on the light side across the southern United States and leaning perhaps above normal in the Pacific Northwest and near the Great Lakes.
For us in Vermont, NOAA is leaning toward warmer than normal, but not as strongly as they are for the southern United States. As for whether it will be wetter or drier than average, NOAA says it's a tossup for us, maybe leaning sort of toward the wet side.
Of course, the other question is whether that precipitation would be mostly in the form of rain or snow. La Nina winters slightly favor above normal snowfall in northern New England, ,so we shall see.
Last year, NOAA predicted we'd have a warm winter and they were right. They'd said that winter precipitation would be a tossup and it kind of was. December was very wet, January was sort of wet and February was dry. A mixed bag there.
THE OLD FARMERS ALMANAC
This publication is not going for the wild winter weather it so often predicts. Says the Almanac:
"'This winter, temperatures will be up and snowfall down through most of the United States, reports Carol Conner, the Almanac's editor-in-chief. 'While there will still be plenty of chilly temperatures and snow for most slopes, the high heating costs associated with the season shouldn't hit so hard. We're predicting a temperate, uneventful winter - potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years.'"
Unlike NOAA, The Old Farmer's Almanac has the South getting the bulk of the precipitation this winter. They expect the most snowfall relative to average in southern and central Appalachia, parts of the Ohio Valley and the Rockies.
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The Old Farmer's Almanac is calling for a winter that
will not be as dramatic as many recent winters. |
The Old Farmer's Almanac map is kinda weird. It describes the upcoming winter here in New England and extending out to the northern Great Lakes and northern Plains as "mild, dry."
But they have these odd little pockets of "cold, dry, stranding the Ohio/Pennsylvania border and in an area around souther Lake Michigan.
That doesn't really make meteorological sense, but whatever.
Last year, the Old Farmer's Almanac was partly right for what happened in the winter 2023-24. They correctly said it would be mild, and it was certainly that. They also said it would be snowy, but snowfall was below normal last winter.
THE FARMERS ALMANAC
Not to be confused with the Old Farmer's Almanac, about, this publication is just the Farmers Almanac. Sure, a little redundant maybe, but we'll deal.
This outfit seems to be anticipating more drama than most of the other prognosticators. Most other forecasters limit the extent of persistent cold in the United States this winter, but the Farmers Almanac kind of goes for broke.
They call for a cold winter in the Northwest and a vast part of the nation's middle, except the southern Plains.
The Farmers Almanac predicts most of the South and East would generally be on the mild side, but with some intrusions of cold.
This group also is pushing a lot of storminess this winter. The only place they anticipate lighter precipitation is in the southern Plains.
For us in Vermont, they have us somewhat on the mild side with very frequent bouts of rain and/or snow.
THE WEATHER CHANNEL
The folks at the Weather Channel are pretty much in line with NOAA/The National Weather Service. They're predicting a warmer than average winter for pretty much the eastern and southern two thirds o the United States, including us up here in New England,
They're forecasting things to be on the chilly side in the northwestern part of the Lower 48. It does seem the Weather Channel is a little more bullish on the eastern warmth than NOAA, We shall see!
ACCUWEATHER
AccuWeather is in general agreement with most forecasters, predicting more or less warmer than usual conditions across the South and East.
They're focusing largely on snow, and are saying the heaviest snow, relative to average, would hit in the interior Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, the western Great Lakes and northern New England. Their forecast of variable temperatures this winter, including thaws, means that ski slope snow might be icy or partly melted at times.
But that's pretty much par for the course in our neck of the woods.
It it does prove to be an overall snowy in New England, AccuWeather is hinting that the bulk of it would hit late in the winter.
Last year, AccuWeather predicted a snowy winter in the Northeast. That didn't really come to pass.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Most forecasts agree with each other about what will happen with the weather this winter, and it's a bit unusual for almost everybody to be on the same page with these long range forecasts. By the way, I'm ignoring the click bait prognosticators on line who always predict ridiculous extremes to attract eyeballs and revenue, but don't actually know what they're doing.
In any event, winter surprises are always possible. I'd say perhaps even likely.
And remember, even if the overall winter does turn out to be warm, that doesn't mean we won't have intense cold spells. For instance, the winter of 2022-23 was the fourth warmest on record. But we did have a quick spell of record cold in New England in the beginning of February that year.
Whatever happens, winter will keep us Vermonters on our toes like it always does.
My winter prediction is the same as it is every year. I'll let you know at the beginning of March, when it's pretty much over. Other than that, it's anybody's guess. And given what I've written above, anyone and everyone is indeed making guessing as to what winter will bring.
