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| Let's post the first National Weather Service snowfall forecast map of the season. Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see. As you can tell on the map, most places will get very little if any snow tonight. But note the pinprick yellow spots in the northern Green Mountains. That depicts summit forecasts of six or more inches of snow. |
A disturbance coming rotating around the departed storm that gave us the cold rain and mountain snow Monday will set off more showers. Of both rain and snow tonight .
It's looking too warm for snow in the Champlain Valley, but you never know if a few wet flakes make it in tonight.
But for those of you at or above 1,000 feet, there could be a slushy coating to an inch of snow overnight tonight. Especially in the northern half of the state.
If it does snow anywhere, it'll all be very pretty to look at, with a thin skim of snow on the autumn leaves in some areas when you get up Wednesday morning. With clearer Thursday, the mountains will remain snow capped much of the day. So the sunshine, the foliage and the mountain snow will yield some classic Vermont fall scenes.
Hikes beware: That thin coating of snow at 1,000 to 2,000 feet will become several inches of snow near and at the summits. There was probably close to half a foot of new snow on some Green Mountain and Adirondack summits just yesterday.
While snow and rain will fall lightly in most places tonight, areas in the upper west slopes of the Greens and the summits could see another three to six inches tonight.
Temperatures will remain below freezing up there, and winds will be brisk. If anybody goes hiking, prepare for midwinter conditions.
I actually worry some about this with all the tourists in the state. I know in New Hampshire over the weekend, there were a dozen or more rescues of people unprepared for the outdoors. Witnesses saw visitors hiking in short shorts, even slippers and what was described as go-go boots, with no food, water or extra clothes with them.
I'm afraid we might see some of the same in Vermont. Be smart, people.
FROST/FREEZE
As skies clear Wednesday night, Vermont should finally see its first really widespread frost and freeze of the season. At this point it looks like pretty much everybody will get a frost, except for areas right near Lake Champlain.
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| All that light and dark blue you see on this morning's National Weather Service map are frost and freeze alerts. After a warm autumn for the U.S. the first burst of seasonable weather has prompted these widespread advisories, |
Depending on where you are, if it gets to 32 degrees or lower on Thursday morning, that first freeze of the season would be solidly on the late side.
The first freeze of the season in Montpelier is on average around October 3, and in Burlington, it comes at around October 8.
After a crisp, bright Thursday, Friday morning will probably also dawn frosty, though not quite as chilly as Thursday morning.
By the way, much of the nation has had a really warm autumn, so this actually rather seasonable cool spell is prompting frost and freeze alerts from Kansas to New England.
BIG WARM/DRY SPELL?
That cold high pressure to our west bringing our chilly air will eventually settle over us and strengthen. It'll draw warm, dry air from the southwest, probably introducing a long stretch of warm, dry weather.
Starting Friday, it looks like we could see several days at least of mild to warm afternoons, with most of them being sunny. Aside from morning fog in spots, mornings should be crisp and cool. If this forecast holds, we'll see the most pleasant weather possible for the second half of October.
Long range forecasts are tilting strongly toward a warm, dry regime in the East, including Vermont, starting in earnest this coming weekend and lasting to perhaps almost the end of the month.
If the cold, dreary weather has you despairing that you won't get your property cleaned up and buttoned down for the winter, never fear. Ma Nature looks like she'll give us a chance to get it all done.
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