Yes, It Was Autumnal In Vermont But July Cool Spells Aren't That Cool Anymore. Now Back To Regularly Scheduled Summer

Autumn-like clouds overhead and strong winds tilt a tree
in St. Albans yesterday on an autumn-like day. However,
summer cool spells are not as cold as they once were,
thanks largely to climate change. 

Yesterday and last night in Vermont sort of had the feel of early autumn. 

Broken clouds streaked across the sky, but in the afternoon and evening, they were those flat windswept type, not the puffy, rising, almost vertical clouds that are more common in summer. 

The winds for the past few days were gusty and cool, and much stronger than you'd expect in the summer. They gusts were more like what you might see toward November. 

By dawn today, readings were down to the upper 40s and low 50s. The summit of Mount Mansfield was at 39 degrees.

It looks like Burlington made it down to 53 degrees this morning, which will likely be the coolest night this month. 

But in yet another sign of climate change, probably mixed with urban development creating a heat island effect, that 53 low this morning is higher than what the July low routinely reached in the past.

.July temperatures in Burlington reached the 40s most years. But Burlington hasn't had a July low under 50 degrees since 2015. In the 80 years ending in 1990, only 17 years had July lows of 50 or above. In the 36 years since 1990,  all but 10 Julys had a months low of 50 degrees or more.  

To give you an idea how cool some Julys used to be, we can harken back to 1962, which, to be fair, was the chilliest July on record,. That July, eleven mornings started under 50 degrees. One of those mornings bottomed out at 39 degrees, which is still Burlington's coldest July temperature on record. It was 29 degrees in West Burke, Vermont that morning. 

Nothing like that is coming anytime soon, of course. No covering up those tomato plants for quite awhile yet. And, a warming trend is starting. Here's what's coming up over the next few days. 

TODAY

A nice one, with sunshine, low humidity and a light breeze. A strong but dying storm far up in Quebec was throwing clouds into far northern Vermont this morning, but those should mostly clear out. The sky, especially over the mountains, will probably have some puffy clouds building up this afternoon, but they won't be big enough to produce any raindrops.

SATURDAY

Another winner! The day will start off cool with temperatures in the 50s to near 60 at dawn, but rocket into the 80s by afternoon. It'll be another weekend day fully endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

SUNDAY:

Actually kind of a hot one by afternoon. Highs should get well into the 80s with the warmer valleys getting up to around 88 or 89 degrees. It'll be your beach day, probably. Some clouds might arrive during the afternoon, but those clouds won't turn the sky overcast. The sun will likely more out than in. Any showers should hold off until Sunday night at the earliest. 

Humidity levels should stay pretty reasonable, too. 

NEXT WEEK

The first half of the week looks unsettled with risks of showers and storms Monday through Wednesday. It's still too soon to say how many showers and storms, so stay tuned!

The Script Flips: Vermont To Go From Chilly, Showery To Summer Warm And Dry

Storm clouds gather over St. Albans, Vermont late Sunday
afternoon. While no hail fell here, thunderstorms 
produced a lot of small hail in some Vermont towns.
This week brings sunshine and warmer air. 

 Another day, another chill in the air, and even some ice.

That was yesterday, of course. Despite a brief burst of sunshine in many areas, especially north, highs were only in the 60s, which was still below normal for this time of year. Southern areas stayed cloudy much of the day. 

That afternoon break in the clouds allowed thunderstorms to develop in Quebec and the head south into Vermont in the late afternoon and evening. 

Although the thunderstorms weren't really severe, the very cold air aloft made it easy for the storms to form hail. That hail came down pretty hard in a few spots, whitening the ground. 

And in some places the hail was fairly big, all things considered. Near Richford, the hail had a half inch diameter,  which is more or less the size of a dime. Several other towns reported the ground covered by pea sized hail. 

RETURN TO SUMMER

A big flip flop has started in the atmosphere overhead. Perfect timing as we flip the calendar to the summer month of June. 

A big southward dip in the jet stream in the eastern U.S, made the past few days frustrating to at least some of us. The air stayed cool. Showers always seemed to threaten and it even snows on many of northern New England mountain peaks Friday night and Saturday morning. 

The past few days have contributed to a May that turned out on the cool side. I'll have a good summary of the interesting weather month of May, 2026 hopefully later today

Those days are gone.  Or at least going. A big northward bulge in the jet stream wants to develop over us. That's coming quicker than we originally thought. A few days ago, we thought most of this week would be cool and unsettled.

But nope! The weather gods are smiling upon Vermont again, fingers crossed. Warm high pressure will become established nearby as a result. It won't exactly be record warmth, u,t you'll definitely notice the changes. And by later in the week, you mind well find yourself out in the garden with a hose, soaking thirsty plants. 

Here are the details: 

Today

We're beginning the process of warming up today, but it won't exactly feel like full on summer. Under at least partly sunny skies, we should flirt with 70 degrees in the warmer valleys and 60s elsewhere. That's still a little on the cool side, believe it or not. The forecast high in Burlington today is 71, compared to a normal of 74 degrees.

Fog from early this morning should either be burning off or gone by the time you read this. There should be some afternoon clouds, mainly over the north and mountains. but even those areas should have some sun. 

We might even find an isolated sprinkle coming out of one or two of those clouds, but nobody will get soaked. Wider valleys will be sunnier. 

Tonight will be quite cool for early June, but not insanely so. Lows should be in the low 40s most places. Maybe in the mid 40s Champlain Valley and mid to upper 30s in the usual cold spots. The coldest  hollows of the Northeast Kingdom might have a little frost, but the vast majority of us should be fine. 

Tuesday:

A winner of a day. Mostly sunny, with highs in the low 70s. 'Nuff said.

Wednesday 

Another stellar day. Hey, we deserve 'em after what we endured over the past few days. OK, "endured" is a really strong word for the mildly unpleasant moments in the weather in recent days, but you know what I mean. 

Here's where it begins to feel like summer. Many of the warmer valleys should touch 80 degrees if the forecast holds. The high sun angle will make it feel pretty toasty out, but the humidity should still be low.

Thursday.

It actually gets kind of hot by later in the week if the forecast is right. Vermont valleys should make it into the mid and upper 80s for the afternoon. 

Friday/Next Weekend 

Some cold fronts and other weather disturbances should get close to Vermont by then. It's too early to tease out when the showers hit, how big they'll be or how long they would last. But those potential cold fronts don't look like they will be powerhouses, so there's little chance we'll freeze our butts off again when then come through. 

At worst, they'll probably just bring near normal temperatures. Which for this time of year is 70s for highs. 

Frosty Times In Vermont As Long Awaited Warm Weather Is Postponed A Bit M

Late afternoon sun lights up this spring scene in 
my St. Albans, Vermont back yard on Sunday.
Cool weather will preserve the flowers for
awhile, but sensitive plants are staying inside
tonight because of a frost risk. 

Morning showers yesterday, some unexpectedly heavy in northwest Vermont, gave way to a beautiful, breezy and mild Mother's Day. But also as expected, that nice weather yielded to a frosty morning in parts of Vermont this morning.  

Most places away from the Champlain Valley were in the low and mid 30s, which brings us into frost territory. 

The cool weather will go on all week, as some changes in the forecast have postponed some long awaited warm weather. But those balmy conditions are still on the way. Eventually.   

Let's take a gander at this week's cool weather. 

TODAY

Clouds will mix in with the sun this afternoon, especially north and mountains, as a very, very wimpy little disturbance passes by. There might even be a light shower or sprinkle in a few spot. Highs will hold in the mid and upper 50s, which is about ten degrees below normal for this time of year.

Tonight will be the coldest of the bunch, and I'm sure the National Weather Service in South Burlington will issue another round of frost advisories by the time they release their updated forecasts this afternoon. 

I'm not sure yet, but unlike last night, I suspect the frost advisories might extend into the Champlain Valley. Lows should range from the mid and upper 20s in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom, to the low 30s in most of Vermont and the mid-30s in the Champlain Valley. Take those sensitive plants indoors! 

As readers of this here blog thingy probably know, I almost always say it could be worse, and I find receipts that prove it. 

For example, on this day in Burlington, 1963, the high temperature was only 40 degrees, the low was 30 degrees and we had some cold rain, mixed with a  trace of snow. 

And on this date in 1945, higher elevations in southern Vermont was blasted by a mid-winter style snowfall. Somerset and Wilmington got 15 inches of snow, and 10 inches fell in Dorset. In lower elevations. 5.5 inches of snow accumulated in Rutland. 

OK moving on. 

TUESDAY

Another cool, sunny day after the morning frost with highs in the 50s. Actually a very nice, comfortably cool day to get things down outdoors. Aside from the black flies, that is.  Tuesday night will get chilly once again, so frost will be an issue for the third night in a row. It should be a couple degrees warmer than tonight because clouds will start to cover the skies overnight.  

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

Those clouds will lead to frequent showers starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing well into Thursday. I'm not sure how much rain we'll get, but it doesn't look like we'll exactly drown. This isn't a powerhouse weather system that's coming in. 

We'll be done with the frost, finally, as the clouds will keep overnight temperatures in the 40s. But those same clouds and showers will hold daytime temperatures down to within a few degrees either side of 60. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

The weather system from Wednesday and Thursday now seems like it might sort of stall out over the ocean east of New England. That will keep clouds here in Vermont Friday and maybe into part of Saturday. And that storm will blunt the expected warmup, but only temporarily. 

It should get into the low 60s Friday and well into the 60s to near 70. That would be the first time in a week with near normal temperatures. 

The weather pattern does seem like it wants to evolve into something better if you're a warm weather fan.  Instead of the flow from Canada we've had since the very end of April, it looks like weather systems will want to zip through here on a nice west to east fashion starting next weekend. 

That means the second half of the month would provide us with near normal to somewhat warmer than normal conditions. Under that scenario, we'd end up with many but not all days making it into the 70s. The warmest days would be near 80 and the coolest days in that stretch would be in the 60s. 

In other words, almost, but not quite summer weather. Won't that be nice?

Friday Morning: Hard Core Spring Arrives In Vermont

After a windy, dry day, some wind-roiled, interesting 
clouds set up shop overhead in St. Albans, Vermont
Thursday at sunset. Clouds are back today, and
by the end of the day they'll yield some April showers.

 As expected, we had our gusty, mild Thursday, as temperatures reached the low 60s in many areas.

The wind made outdoor spring clean up difficult, especially in the Champlain Valley. I see that Burlington gusted to as high as 49 mph on Thursday. The relative humidity was down in the teens and low 20s, so the forecast of a high fire danger was also correct. 

I'm sure there were a few instances of out of control fires yesterday in Vermont. Small, but potentially dangerous. 

I'm aware of one fire up on Skunks Misery Road in Franklin, Vermont. I had to mention this blaze, which was quickly brought under control, because it's my favorite street name in the state.

TODAY

Anyway, there's still some lingering fire danger today, especially in southern Vermont, where it's drier. Winds are lighter, but not calm, so we still have to be careful out there. A cold front is approaching, and that will provide a little rain later this afternoon and evening to tamp down the fire risk a little bit. 

The clouds will come in from the west and north, and that will have an effect on the temperatures. Where it clouds up first in  northwest Vermont, temperatures should still make it up to around 60 degrees, which is still relatively mild for this time of year. So, fine. It'll be in the 60s in central Vermont and near 70 in warmer valleys south. 

We'll have a  rising chance of showers this afternoon first in the northwest, then spreading south and east. It looks like very little rain will fall until very late this afternoon and into the evening, when the bulk of it will come down.

"Bulk" is a bit of an extreme word for the situation we're actually facing. We're only going to see a quarter to a third of an inch of rain, give or take, north and central, with a tenth of an inch or less in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

This all might end as a few snowflakes in the highest elevations north overnight, but most of us won't see any snow this time. It fact, if you're a weird hard core snow lover, you're kind of screwed. For once, no snow is really in the forecast at all. I think that's the first time since late October I could say that!

WEEKEND

It'll be a cool April weekend, but certainly not frigid.  Saturday will be a classic April day: Highs will be in the 40s to around 50. We'll see some nippy north breezes, but bright sunshine should take the edge off the chill. 

It'll be below freezing overnight Saturday night, but it won't be the deep, near record cold we saw Wednesday morning. Instead, it'll just be a typical April freeze with lows in the 20s to around 30.

You'll notice skies clouding up Sunday as temperatures hold in the low 50s. We'll see a rising chance of rain as we go through the day, too.  Get your outdoor stuff done in the morning if you can. 

NEXT WEEK

We have some hard core spring weather coming with warm temperatures, relatively humid air and a frequent risk of showers, especially in northern Vermont. 

There will be a front nearby separating relatively cool air to the north with almost summer-like air south. It's hard to say exactly where the front will set up, but it should waver north and south occasionally as disturbances roll through. 

The early guess is northern Vermont will be on the warm side,  with highs most of next week in the 60s to possibly near 70.  I'll happily take that if we comes!

Far southern Vermont could see a few days in a row of downright summer conditions, with highs in the 70s to possibly near 80 and mild low in the 50s. You might even be tempted to get you air conditioning set up for the summer. 

That's no guarantee, the forecast is going to need refining and updating between now and Monday. But regardless, I think you're going to see things turning greener and buds swelling outside very nicely over the next week or so. 

Next thing you know, you'll be mowing your lawn. It'll hit sooner than you think. Especially with the kind of weather that's in the forecast. 

Despite the usual snowy setbacks, it's been an incredibly easy spring in Vermont so far. It looks like that will continue.  I hope I''m not jinxing it. The last thing we need is a wintry May! 

Coldest Vermont/New York April Morning In A Decade; Spring Returns This Afternoon. Believe It Or Not, Fire Danger By Tomorrow?

A wintry April scene in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
this evening, but by noon, most of this snow will
be gone, and we can get back to our regularly
scheduled spring. 

As expected, we had some winter cold to start this clear April morning, and some areas around Vermont and New York really got into this January-like spell. 

Saranac Lake, New York was down to a wild minus 3 this morning, which the latest in the season subzero temperature I've seen in the region in decades..

I did find one later in the season subzero reading in Saranac Lake. It was 3 below there way back on April 12, 1926.

Here in Vermont, I saw that it had gotten to at least 3 above zero at Lake Eden, so it's   a cold hollow or two in the Northeast Kingdom could have touched zero early this morning. 

Elsewhere, Montpelier got down to 14 degrees, tying their record low for the date, first set in 1982.   

Burlington did not come close to its record low, which is 11 degrees back in 1972. It got down to 16 degrees, though. The last time it was colder than that was a decade ago when in reached 14 degrees on April 5, 2016.   

I noticed the birds, which have been making a racket most mornings, have been pretty silent this morning. I think gardens might have lost their shot at magnolia flowers later this morning. However, the daffodil, crocus and hyacinth shoots that have been poking up should survive this just fine. 

Also, spring staples such as lilacs should also be fine, as the buds are still currently pretty tight and small. 

TODAY:

With the strong April sun out there, temperatures should rocket upward super fast this morning, topping out in the 40s this afternoon.  That's still a little cooler than average for this time of year. But light winds and that sun will make it feel even warmer than it is. 

Where there's snow on the ground, it'll melt very fast, except in the shade. The humidity today will be at rock bottom.  It's hard to melt even a little snow in the shade when it's this dry, so the dark corners of your yard might still have snow on them at the end of the day. In the dry sun, the snow should disappear in a flash. 

FIRE DANGER?

This seems far fetched, given that many of us are started the day with snow on the ground, but by tomorrow, we'll actually have a  fire danger here in Vermont. 

In today's super low humidity, the snow will basically evaporate in the sun. Many areas of Vermont don't really even have snow on the ground this morning, especially in the Connecticut River Valley, so the moisture on the ground will dry quickly. 

There's no real greenery yet this time of year, so all those dry grasses and weeds and such are just kindling waiting to burn. Tomorrow, the sun should stay out, the humidity will stay very low, and the wind should pick up. 

In the Champlain Valley, winds by tomorrow afternoon should gust to 35 or even 40 mph. Elsewhere, most places should see gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. That's more than enough to spread even a small fire across the dry landscape. 

It might seem awfully sudden to go from snow to a fire hazard, but that's really common this time of year. High pressure systems from Canada are particularly dry this time of year. It's also a windy season and, as noted, things on the ground haven't greened up yet. This is pretty much peak fire season in Vermont. 

We've already had one large fire this year in Ferrisburgh that burned through 100 acres or so on March 31,  So we're already off to a not-great start this year.   

SPRING

On the bright side, spring weather will continue. It should get well into the 50s tomorrow. If a cold front holds off long enough on Friday, we could see some 60s.  It does look like a little rain might come through during the day or evening on Friday - those traditional April shower.

After a somewhat cooler but definitely not cold Saturday (highs in the low 50s), we could have a day or two threatening the 70 degree mark early next week. 

Sort Of A Stormy Easter Morning In Vermont, Gets Better Later

I know it's disappointing to wake up on Easter Morning to find it rather stormy out - rainy enough to soak and ruin your Easter bonnet and windy enough to blow it away. 

The first part of April is never pretty, and that was the 
case this Easter morning in St. Albans, Vermont. After
an expected throwback to winter, the progress of spring
will accelerate later next week 

But who the hell wears an Easter bonnet anymore? The Easter egg hunts might have to be postponed a bit, too, which might be a bummer.

But since this is all about ME!!!!!!, I personally like waking up on raw and wet Sunday morning in a cozy house. I can hear the wind blown rain clattering faintly on the metal roof, and the dull roar of winds still blowing through leafless trees, the gray skies, all starting the day quietly, contemplatory. 

We did - as expected - end up getting winds just as strong as the gusts we had Friday morning, but they came in the hours just after midnight, when we were less likely to notice them. The wind advisory that was in effect was justified.

Winds at the sandbar on Route 2 in Milton got to 59 mph. Jay saw gusts to 53 mph; Morrisville, 51 mph and Panton, 49 mph. There were plenty of gusts statewide in the 30s and 40s mph. Not enough to cause widespread problems but enough to rattle the shutters. 

Early this morning, roughly 2,800 homes and businesses had no power, mostly in the northern Green Mountains. 

REST OF TODAY/TOMORROW

The rain that moved in before dawn is now tending to suppress the wind somewhat. That rain should mostly move out by shortly after noon.  We'll end up with a third of an inch of new rain, give or take, so we're safe from any flooding. This afternoon will actually be OK, with temperatures hovering near 50, with breaks of sun and southwest breezes.

At least as measured in Burlington, there have only been two Aprils without so much as a snow flurry in Burlington (1941 and 2005).  This year won't join those two illustrious Aprils.

First of all, there's already been a snow flurry on April 1.  And more are probably on the way.  Progressively colder and colder air will start coming in this afternoon and night, setting the stage for some spring snow showers. 

Tomorrow will be chilly, but it won't be the worst of it. High should make it to the upper 30s northern highlands to upper 40s warmest southern valley floors.  There could be a few snow flurries in the mountains. 

THE COLD PEAKS

As the cold air continue to pour in Monday night and early Tuesday, more snow showers should blossom. For now, anyway, forecasts have measurable snow statewide by the end of the day Tuesday, though I have my doubts about this for warmer southern valleys. 

Tuesday will be a throwback to winter, with many of us receiving a dusting to an  inch of snow. Some  northern towns will probably never get above freezing on Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night will get into the teens to low 20s. Spring will be on temporary hold.  Don't worry, happens every year. 

SPRING RETURNS

Strong high pressure, which initially will contribute to our nippy April weather, will warm us up as it passes nearly overhead and then off the east coast Wednesday.  By Wednesday afternoon, it'll get well into the 40s, which is still a little cooler than normal. But the strong April sun will make it feel much better.

After that, we get a huge break. April can be notoriously tempestuous, but the second half of next week and next weekend look anything but. High temperatures in the 50s and low 60s will get spring flowers and plants and tree buds going, and no notable storms are on the way. 

Sure, this Easter morning is gray and brown and muddy and ugly, as early April is in Vermont. But that promise of spring keeps getting more and  more real. 

We're Now In What Might Well Be The Last True Winter Cold Spell Of The Season

Interesting radar image from yesterday as light rain
covered most of the area. The "hole" in the rain near
and south of Burlington lingered for hours. Moisture
coming in from the west was blocked by the Adirondacks.
leaving a dry spot in the Champlain Valley.

As we expected, the spring warmth of yesterday is gone and t's cold here once again in Vermont.

The transition to the colder weather started out unevenly yesterday and created some sort of interesting moments. 

There was actually two cold fronts. The first originated as a warm front that stalled over southern Quebec It worked its way back southward as a cold front during Thursday afternoon and abruptly ended the brief warm spell in the far north. 

In Highgate, a temperature of 56 degrees at 12:30 p.m. Thursday was own to 45 by 2:30 p.m.. Elsewhere in northern and central Vermont, it took until very late afternoon or early evening to get much chillier. 

While all that was going on, whatever moisture there was came streaming in from the west. Nobody in central and northern Vermont got all that much rain, with amounts near a quarter inch, give or take.  

But if you looked at radar returns there was a "hole" near and south of Burlington most of the afternoon and evening were pretty much no rain was falling. The Adirondacks were blocking the moisture coming in. So rainfall dried up in the Champlain Valley, but resumed in the Green Mountains when the air was forced to rise up the slopes, wringing out a little rain. 

It looks like only far southern Vermont got substantial precipitation. Bennington reported a decent 0.61 inches.  

Overnight, the second and strongest cold front blasted through. even found evidence on my truck and the trees around my St. Albans home that we got a little bit of freezing rain late last night. 2Now it's temporarily winter again. 

LAST COLD SPELL?

As of 7 a.m. today, temperatures across Vermont were solidly below freezing except in the far south. Stiff north winds were holding wind chill in the teens. It won't get above freezing in most of the state today. 

Tonight will be down in the single number and low teens for the most part. Saturday stays below freezing, too, in much of Vermont. Saturday night will be cold, too, but not quite as bad as tonight. 

After that, fingers crossed, this might be the last truly wintry cold spell until, well next winter. There will still be frigid air lurking in central and northern Canada, but I don't think it will able to make any kind of strong push into our neck of the wood next week, or the week after. Then, by mid-April, it's usually too late to get wintry. 

Sure, it can get cold and snowy after mid-April, but not as if you're in the depths of winter cold and snowy. 

It looks like we'll have an active weather pattern, though, with frequent chances of April showers. It remains to be seen how much rain we'll actually get, as at this stage of the game, results vary when you look at the various forecasting models. 

Temperatures should recover from the cold spell by Sunday afternoon, as temperatures rise into the 40s. Readings will bounce around after that as warm and cold fronts sail through New England.  At this point, next Wednesday looks like the warmest day, with highs in the 50s to low 60s. A few models take us well into the 60s. We shall see!  

Vermont Transition To Warmer Weather To Be A Little Messy

Today and this evening's snow forecast.  A few inches
in the southern Green Mountains. Very little far north.
This is part of our transition to a warmer weather
pattern. We'll finally get a thaw, eventually.

 I hope early risers got to see the lunar eclipse at dawn today. 

I didn't quite luck out with it. Literally the only cloud in the sky obscured the view of it from my perch in St. Albans, Vermont. Oh well, it's a nice morning anyway. Although weird.

I say weird because temperatures were all over the place this morning. It was below zero again in places like Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Morrisville. 

West of the Green Mountains, it was in the teens. As south winds began to blow, Burlington rocketed upward to 24 degrees, a 14 degree boost from a few hours earlier. 

We've now begun the transition to a warmer weather pattern. This being Vermont, there are some complications with that. Which is typical.  At least the iffy weather this week doesn't look particularly extreme. 

The trouble might actually start when we do get into the warm air this weekend. More on that in a minute. 

TODAY

The sunshine you might have seen early this morning will fade behind. The wide range in temperatures will even out later this morning and most of us will top out somewhere in the 30s. 

The trouble comes from a small storm that will send some wet snow our way. It will slowly spread northward across the state today.  And I do mean slowly. It'll start around Bennington early this afternoon and not make to places like Burlington, St. Johnsbury and St. Albans until early this evening. 

Also, the further north you go the less snow will fall.

Far southern Vermont - Bennington and Windham counties - are under a winter weather advisory this afternoon and overnight. That's because the initial thump of snow could briefly come down pretty hard this afternoon. And later, toward evening, there could be some light sleet and freezing rain.

Snow accumulation in the winter weather advisory zone will be two to five inches, with the highest totals in the southern Green Mountains.

That harder thump of snow, as noted, will slowly head north, but tend to weaken as it does so. We'll still see a good two inches of fairly wet snow in many places all the north almost to Route 2.  Some of the central Vermont Green Mountains might see three or four inches. 

Central Vermont might see some slippery roads for today's afternoon commute. 

The intensity of the snow will continue to fade as it reaches northern Vermont this evening. Places way up north like St. Albans and Newport will see less than an inch.

Later tonight, all areas could see some patchy freezing drizzle, so there might be a few issues here and  there o the roads first thing tomorrow. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

I hope Vermont's maple sugarers are ready for this. Both days should hit the low 40s (some upper 30s in the cold spots) with at least partly sunny skies. 

This will start to erode the snow cover nicely, especially on south and west facing slopes that collect the heat of the sun. The March sun is strong enough that I noticed it was melting snow in sunny corners yesterday even though temperatures were only in the low 20s. 

But these two nice days won't complete our transition into our upcoming false spring. 

Some precipitation is coming at us Thursday night and Friday. But, as mentioned yesterday, strong, frigid high pressure will be temporarily building up in northern Quebec. That will probably result in mixed precipitation. 

Exactly how that plays out is still in question. But whatever comes out of the sky doesn't look torrential. It'll probably be heaviest south. More details to come.  

WARM WEEKEND

It still looks like it'll get into the upper 40s and low 50s Saturday through Monday. It also looks like we'll get some rain Saturday. Again, nothing torrential, but still.

The rapid thawing and rain will send water flowing into our iced up rivers. The ice will start to shift and move. This is when we'll need to keep an eye out for ice jams that could cause some local flooding. 

It's only mid-March, so the warm weather won't last forever. It's hard to say how long the mild spell will last. But don't worry, more winter is inevitable. Meanwhile, enjoy the upcoming mild spell. 

One More Vermont Snow Chance, Then A Frost/Freeze Then Warm Again?

Let's post the first National Weather Service snowfall
forecast map of the season.  Click on the image to 
make it bigger and easier to see. As you can tell on the
map, most places will get very little if any snow
tonight. But note the pinprick yellow spots in the
northern Green Mountains. That depicts summit forecasts
of six or more inches of snow. 

 After yesterday's high elevation snow in Vermont, we're going to do it again tonight, but don't expect a winter wonderland everywhere.   

A disturbance coming rotating around the departed storm that gave us the cold rain and mountain snow Monday will set off more showers. Of both rain and snow tonight .

It's looking too warm for snow in the Champlain Valley, but you never know if a few wet flakes make it in tonight. 

But for those of you at or above 1,000 feet, there could be a slushy coating to an inch of snow overnight tonight. Especially in the northern half of the state. 

If it does snow anywhere, it'll all be very pretty to look at, with a thin skim of snow on the autumn leaves in some areas when you get up Wednesday morning. With clearer  Thursday, the mountains will remain snow capped much of the day. So the sunshine, the foliage and the mountain snow will yield some classic Vermont fall scenes.

Hikes beware: That thin coating of snow at 1,000 to 2,000 feet will become several inches of snow near and at the summits. There was probably close to half a foot of new snow on some Green Mountain and Adirondack summits just yesterday.

While snow and rain will fall lightly in most places tonight, areas in the upper west slopes of the Greens and the summits could see another three to six inches tonight. 

Temperatures will remain below freezing up there, and winds will be brisk. If anybody goes hiking, prepare for midwinter conditions. 

I actually worry some about this with all the tourists in the state. I know in New Hampshire over the weekend, there were a dozen or more rescues of people unprepared for the outdoors. Witnesses saw visitors hiking in short shorts, even slippers and what was described as go-go boots, with no food, water or extra clothes with them.

I'm afraid we might see some of the same in Vermont. Be smart, people. 

FROST/FREEZE

As skies clear Wednesday night, Vermont should finally see its first really widespread frost and freeze of the season. At this point it looks like pretty much everybody will get a frost, except for areas right near Lake Champlain. 

All that light and dark blue you see on this morning's
National Weather Service map are frost and freeze
alerts. After a warm autumn for the U.S. the first
burst of seasonable weather has prompted these
widespread advisories,

Depending on where you are, if it gets to 32 degrees or lower on Thursday morning, that first freeze of the season would be solidly on the late side.

 The first freeze of the season in Montpelier is on average around October 3, and in Burlington, it comes at around October 8.

After a crisp, bright Thursday, Friday morning will probably also dawn frosty, though not quite as chilly as Thursday morning.

By the way, much of the nation has had a really warm autumn, so this actually rather seasonable cool spell is prompting frost and freeze alerts from Kansas to New England. 

BIG WARM/DRY SPELL? 

That cold high pressure to our west bringing our chilly air will eventually settle over us and strengthen. It'll draw warm, dry air from the southwest, probably introducing a long stretch of warm, dry weather. 

Starting Friday, it looks like we could see several days at least of mild to warm afternoons, with most of them being sunny. Aside from morning fog in spots, mornings should be crisp and cool.  If this forecast holds, we'll see the most pleasant weather possible for the second half of October.  

Long range forecasts are tilting strongly toward a warm, dry regime in the East, including Vermont, starting in earnest this coming weekend and lasting to perhaps almost the end of the month.

If the cold, dreary weather has you despairing that you won't get your property cleaned up and buttoned down for the winter, never fear. Ma Nature looks like she'll give us a chance to get it all done.  

Long Vermont Sunny Spell Is Over; But Another Long Vermont Sunny Spell On The Way

A very clear, nearly haze-free view from near the summit
of Mount Mansfield, Vermont on Friday. It was the last
day of a long stretch of sunny weather in the Green 
Mountain State. After an interruption in the good
weather this weekend, another long spell of 
fair weather seems likely next week. 

 Gosh, that was a gorgeous few days in Vermont wasn't it. 

Lots of sunshine, comfortable temperatures - it was perfect.  

All good things must come to an end. But all good things must also return!

I'll explain. 

A slow moving high pressure system through deep layers of the atmosphere ensured a lot of slowly sinking air over us the past few days. 

Sinking air suppresses clouds, which is why we saw so few of them Tuesday through Friday. 

Friday's scattered clouds amid a still gorgeous day hinted that the high pressure system was departing. Sure enough, we have a sharp dip in the jet stream, which means a storm system, a cold front, and plenty of rising air. 

Rising air means rain. Hence, an ill-timed burst of Saturday afternoon and evening rain and a sharp drop in temperature is on the way. 

SUN INTERRUPTED

Clouds were noticeably increasing across Vermont this morning, and that cold front should come through this afternoon. Be ready for changing weather during the day, for sure.

We'll have a few hours of soaking rain with the cold front this afternoon and tonight. Along with the umbrellas, bring a hoodie, since temperatures will start to crash through the 60s and into the 50s this evening. 

The rain will mostly shut down later tonight, within a few hours after sunset, but the chill will keep flooding in. That dip in a jet stream is bringing a flow of chilly Canadian air. We're getting into autumn, remember?

I had the opportunity to take the Stowe Gondola to near the Mount Mansfield summit with visiting relatives Friday, and it was really gorgeous up there. We saw lots of comfortable temperatures (70s in Stowe Village, probably low to mid 60s mountain summit), lots of blue sky, and remarkably light winds for a Vermont mountain summit.

Video from the trip is at the bottom of this post.

I'm glad we didn't plan that trip for tomorrow. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is warning hikers of near winter conditions on the summits during Sunday. Atop the mountains Sunday, expect temperatures in the 30s to low 40s with winds gusting to at least 40 mph. That translates to wind chills in the upper teens and 20s. Definitely dress right for a hike

Down in the valleys, it'll be cool but reasonable (near 60 degrees or so for highs). There might be a few light showers, but nothing to get too worried about.  Monday will also be cool, with some clouds, maybe a light shower or two. 

WARM SUN COMES BACK

If you liked the past week, the signs are growing that we're going to do it again. Forecasts call for another strong high pressure system to park itself over the Northeast through next week, and quite possibly beyond.

That would mean another long stretch of sunny weather with a warming trend. It could be 80 degrees again toward the end of next week.  The overall pattern features high pressure to mostly dominate the Northeast possibly into the third week of the month. 

If that happens, we'll end up with overall a gorgeous September. Even if today's rain interrupts some of your outdoor plans.  

Video: Views from near the top of Mount Mansfield on Friday, courtesy of the Stowe Mountain Resort gondola.  Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Vermont Weather Week Ahead: Back To The Longest "November" Ever: Warm-ish And Gloomy

Still cold this morning in St. Albans, Vermont, but at
least there's some blue sky.  Sunshine has been an
extremely rare commodity this winter. 

 We've got a day or two of actual winter weather left in Vermont until we return to our ridiculously long stretch of November-like weather. 

You know, the warm-ish, gloomy stuff that set in around the end of October and has never really left except for just a handful of brief exceptions.

It took a massive outbreak of Arctic air to flood the nation to make us seasonable cold here in Vermont.  In the grand scheme of things, it hasn't really been that cold. Many of us are not even seeing any subzero chill around here.

That massive Arctic outbreak is now decaying and getting ready to leave the United States. There's still trouble with a brewing ice storm in Arkansas.  Freeze warnings and wind chill advisories were still up in northern and central Florida this morning. 

Warmer Pacific air is now starting to make its way across the Lower 48. We'll feel that here in Vermont as the week goes on.

TODAY AND MONDAY

We're still on the cold side of that decaying Arctic high pressure, so most of us will stay in the teens, to possibly near 20 today. That's still a little chiller than average but by no means ridiculous for January.  It's also turning nice and bright out there, too. For a change. Despite today's nippiness, the sun will make it seem a little happier. 

Enjoy the sun today, and perhaps part of tomorrow, because it's back to the persistent clouds, gloom and mild temperatures we've had for almost all of this winter after that point. 

Tonight should get into the single numbers again, with a few spots below zero east of the Green Mountains. West of those mountains, temperatures should start to climb late tonight, and it'll be 32 by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY

Temperatures will stay mild Monday night, and peak again Tuesday morning. The warming trend looks like it will get briefly cut off at the pass Tuesday morning by a bit of a cold front from Quebec. Temperatures should fall back through the 20s for most of us.

BEYOND TUESDAY

Starting Tuesday we'll be stuck in a warm, moist southwest airflow that guarantees warmth, at least for this time of year, lots of clouds, and some mostly light precipitation. It'll start as light snow, turning to a wet snow, and finally an unpleasant rain for most of us.

It'll be occasional, light stuff Wednesday through Friday, with big gaps with no precipitation at all. Daytime highs Wednesday through at least Friday will be in the upper 30s to a few low 40s.  It'll be a little cooler than that in the mountains, though, so perhaps most of the precipitation will come down as snow up there. 

The real story will be the nighttime lows during this spell. It seems that -  especially for the last year or more - toasty nights have been the most pronounced part of most of the warm spells we've gotten.

That'll be the case here. In the warmer valleys, especially the Champlain Valley, it could stay continuously above freezing from Wednesday morning through most of Saturday. That means three nights in a row have a shot of seeing record warm minimums for the date.  Record high minimum temperatures in Burlington currently for Thursday and Friday are 37 degrees, and 36 degrees for Saturday.

It'll eventually turn colder, of course, at some point. We're still in January here. Long range forecasts hint at some pushes of Arctic air moving southeastward from central Canada into Quebec.  Though long range forecasts are big time subject to change, so far, those cold blasts will only give us in Vermont glancing blows, with central and northern Quebec taking the brunt of the subzero, frigid Arctic air.

January is pretty much guaranteed to be yet another warmer than normal month in Vermont. 

 

Vermont Somewhat Cheated On Rain Again, Another Frost/Freeze Threat And Dry, Warm Days Ahead

Haze, largely from Canadian wildfires, obscured this view
of the Adirondacks from South Burlington, Vermont on
a warm afternoon yesterday. A sharp cold front today 
will clear the smoke, but introduce another
frost or freeze risk to parts of the state. 
Not nearly as bad as last week's freeze, though. 

 It looks to me like forecasters have backed off somewhat on the amount of badly needed rain we'll get today from a powerhouse cold front that was on our doorstep as I wrote this after 8 a.m. today. 

The front will move through fairly quickly, not lingering long enough for us to get much rain. Current forecasts are from about 0.15 inches to maybe locally as much as a third of an inch. In other words, not much.

After today, it probably won't rain again for another week. So the dry weather and incipient drought continue to develop in the Green Mountain State. 

As if the state's agriculture hasn't taken enough hits with the weather this spring. 

By this afternoon, it'll feel like March, not late May.  We had a mild start to the day, with temperatures in the 50s for the most part.  By mid to late afternoon, most of us, especially in central and northern Vermont, will be in the 40s. For comparison, it should be close to 70 degrees that time of day, this time of year. 

That leads us to tonight.  Another cold one is on the way, but thankfully, it doesn't look like it will be an intense or as widespread as the destructive freeze Vermont suffered last Wednesday night and Thursday morning. 

It appears the Champlain Valley is largely safe. And instead of low to mid 20s in much of the rest of Vermont like last week, we're talking less threatening low 30s. It will be dry and breezy late tonight after the showers clear, so the risk would be freezing temperatures in spots, but not frost, which forms on calm nights. 

Still, the type of mass rush of cold air we're getting later today can be surprising, so it's possible the freeze might be slightly more widespread than this morning's forecast indicates. So protect sensitive plants to be on the safe side. 

You'll need to do the same tomorrow night.  Thursday will be blustery and partly cloudy, with highs in the 50s to maybe near 60 in the banana belt towns.  That's a good 15 degrees colder than normal.

That sets up lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s in much of the state away from Lake Champlain tomorrow night. 

Fingers crossed, that will be the last frost threat of the season for all of us except those in the very coldest hollows (Which can see frosts almost any time of year).

The good news is it's going to warm up to the point it feels like summer. The bad new, it looks like no rain is coming for awhile.

For a time, some forecasts indicated an upper level low would meander near us over the Memorial Day weekend, which would give us a shot at some showers.  Now, warm high pressure looks like it will dominate. That means a stretch of weather with highs near  or even a little above 80 degrees starting Saturday and possibly continuing through at least next Tuesday. 

Summer weather looks to arrive just as the unofficial start to the season gets underway. 

Back To (Relatively) Normal In Vermont After Weird Weather Day

Plants just emerging in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens
look drowned in yesterday's downpours. But they'll be
fine, given the forecast of a long dry spell, with 
temperatures turning dramatically warmer next week. 

Well, no ice is in the forecast today and we almost certainly won't see any thunderstorms, which is a big change from yesterday, at least in northern Vermont. 

The payoff, eventually, will be a long stretch of gorgeous spring weather. If you want things to really start greening up, next week will be your time to celebrate.

We're actually starting off pretty warm today after the cold, raw, rainy, thundery weather we had. Yes, I know it wasn't that bad in southern Vermont, but still.

Parts of the Northeast Kingdom did have some ice accumulations yesterday. But unlike far northwestern New York, and southern Quebec, including Ottawa and Montreal, the ice didn't really cause much harm in Vermont. 

The Green Mountain State really dodged a bullet with that ice storm.  More than 1 million customers in Quebec were without power yesterday. Plenty of trees and branches came down with the weight of the ice, in some cases smashing cars in the process. Schools are closed across much of southwestern Quebec today. 

Back here in Vermont, the wind picked up last evening, too, but it wasn't quite strong enough to cause too much damage. At one point, about 1,000 customers were without electricity last evening, but that number is pretty small compared to some recent storms. 

The sprawling storm's cold front will come through later this morning and early afternoon without much fanfare. Some spots will see some showers, but it won't be anything heavy.

Temperatures will stay mild, with readings poking up into the low 60s for many of us. That comfortable air will begin to feel less so later this afternoon as colder air comes in.

COLD, DRY SHOT

Friday and Saturday won't feel particularly springlike, as temperatures stay in the mid  30s to mid 40s by day and dip into the 20s at night. If you hate static electricity, you won't be fans of this. The air will be very dry. 

This kind of weather is a bit chilly for early April, but it's not nearly as cold as it can get this time of year.  Cool spells like this or nippier happen every April in Vermont. 

THEN SPRING, BUT TOO DRY?

Temperatures will start to recover nicely on Sunday, and keep going up day by day during next week. The first half of the week will  feature pleasant highs in the 60s, then there's an excellent shot of 70s later in the week. 

Extended national temperature outlook for next Tuesday through
Saturday. That's about as strong a signal as you can get 
for warmer than normal temperatures in Vermont and
a broad stretch of the Midwest and eastern U.S.

In a way, this might be too much of a good thing, if you're a bit of a pessimist. The air during this spell will continue to be very dry, with humidity about as low as it can get. 

Despite all the rain we just had in northern Vermont, things will dry out pretty quickly in the arid, mild air. 

It'll be maybe even worse in southern Vermont, which did not get much rain yesterday. 

There's all that dead stuff from last year still out there. The leaves aren't on the trees yet. All that sunshine will dry things out, and brush fires will become a risk. This is the time of year they're most likely in Vermont, so there you go.

After the nice moisture we had over the winter and early spring, we don't want a drought to start. A couple weeks of dry weather, like what's coming, shouldn't be much of a problem. It will turn into one if it stays dry. 

However, it seems like in many Aprils in Vermont, there's often a long period of dry, warm (sometimes hot!) and tranquil weather during the middle of the month. For example, the Aprils of 1976, 1977, 1998, 2002, 2020 and 2021 were like this, among many others. 

In almost all these cases, decent rains returned by the end of the month. 

So we should relax and enjoy the great weather coming next week. Just don't burn your brush pile during this interlude.