Sort Of A Stormy Easter Morning In Vermont, Gets Better Later

I know it's disappointing to wake up on Easter Morning to find it rather stormy out - rainy enough to soak and ruin your Easter bonnet and windy enough to blow it away. 

The first part of April is never pretty, and that was the 
case this Easter morning in St. Albans, Vermont. After
an expected throwback to winter, the progress of spring
will accelerate later next week 

But who the hell wears an Easter bonnet anymore? The Easter egg hunts might have to be postponed a bit, too, which might be a bummer.

But since this is all about ME!!!!!!, I personally like waking up on raw and wet Sunday morning in a cozy house. I can hear the wind blown rain clattering faintly on the metal roof, and the dull roar of winds still blowing through leafless trees, the gray skies, all starting the day quietly, contemplatory. 

We did - as expected - end up getting winds just as strong as the gusts we had Friday morning, but they came in the hours just after midnight, when we were less likely to notice them. The wind advisory that was in effect was justified.

Winds at the sandbar on Route 2 in Milton got to 59 mph. Jay saw gusts to 53 mph; Morrisville, 51 mph and Panton, 49 mph. There were plenty of gusts statewide in the 30s and 40s mph. Not enough to cause widespread problems but enough to rattle the shutters. 

Early this morning, roughly 2,800 homes and businesses had no power, mostly in the northern Green Mountains. 

REST OF TODAY/TOMORROW

The rain that moved in before dawn is now tending to suppress the wind somewhat. That rain should mostly move out by shortly after noon.  We'll end up with a third of an inch of new rain, give or take, so we're safe from any flooding. This afternoon will actually be OK, with temperatures hovering near 50, with breaks of sun and southwest breezes.

At least as measured in Burlington, there have only been two Aprils without so much as a snow flurry in Burlington (1941 and 2005).  This year won't join those two illustrious Aprils.

First of all, there's already been a snow flurry on April 1.  And more are probably on the way.  Progressively colder and colder air will start coming in this afternoon and night, setting the stage for some spring snow showers. 

Tomorrow will be chilly, but it won't be the worst of it. High should make it to the upper 30s northern highlands to upper 40s warmest southern valley floors.  There could be a few snow flurries in the mountains. 

THE COLD PEAKS

As the cold air continue to pour in Monday night and early Tuesday, more snow showers should blossom. For now, anyway, forecasts have measurable snow statewide by the end of the day Tuesday, though I have my doubts about this for warmer southern valleys. 

Tuesday will be a throwback to winter, with many of us receiving a dusting to an  inch of snow. Some  northern towns will probably never get above freezing on Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night will get into the teens to low 20s. Spring will be on temporary hold.  Don't worry, happens every year. 

SPRING RETURNS

Strong high pressure, which initially will contribute to our nippy April weather, will warm us up as it passes nearly overhead and then off the east coast Wednesday.  By Wednesday afternoon, it'll get well into the 40s, which is still a little cooler than normal. But the strong April sun will make it feel much better.

After that, we get a huge break. April can be notoriously tempestuous, but the second half of next week and next weekend look anything but. High temperatures in the 50s and low 60s will get spring flowers and plants and tree buds going, and no notable storms are on the way. 

Sure, this Easter morning is gray and brown and muddy and ugly, as early April is in Vermont. But that promise of spring keeps getting more and  more real. 

Big Early Season Cold Snap Set To Invade Eastern U.S. Here in Vermont, Frequent Light Rain/Snow

A cold overcast over St. Albans, Vermont Thursday.
The weather pattern over the next several days
will feature frequent bouts of rain and snow. 

For us Vermonters, an incoming bout of winter-ish weather is par for the November course here in the Great Soon-To-Be-White north. 

For much of the rest of the eastern United States, this cold snap might end up being one for the record books. 

The blast of chilly air from Canada looks like it will be much stronger and widespread than is usual for November. 

By Tuesday morning, places as far south as Florida could see morning frosts. In central Florida, the forecast low Tuesday in Orlando is 40 degrees. The normal low there this time of year is around 60. 

Further north around Jacksonville, Florida, they're expecting near record highs in the mid-80s this weekend, followed by near record lows in the mid-30s by Tuesday. 

Across the interior Southeast, they're bracing for hard freezes early next week. 

Further north, snow will be widespread starting Sunday and heading into early next week. There should be flakes in the air from Minnesota to Maine, and south to the Ohio River Valley and central Appalachians. 

Most places won't get much snow. Just a pre-winter tease. But an exception will be areas near the Great Lakes. The lake effect snow machine might get off to an early start with this cold wave. There's potential for several inches of snow well south of Buffalo, New York, and south of Watertown, New York.

Another area that could get a fair amount of snow are the upper elevations of northern New England and the Laurentian Mountains in Quebec.  Some mountain peaks could get six or more inches on top of the snow then already have.

More on that in the Vermont section below.

Widespread cold waves like this are getting a bit more rare, thanks to climate change. Record highs are still far outpacing record lows.

But, given the correct alignment of the jet stream, you can get widespread cold weather. You need a big southward dip in the jet stream, deeper than most cold spells. That's what's setting up for the next few days in the eastern United States. 

I don't know how many cities will experience record lows with this Arctic outbreak. The last time I saw a big blast of record cold air hitting the nation was an unprecedented snowstorm and cold snap along the Gulf Coast last January 21-22.

The cold wave coming in within the next few days won't be as bonkers as that spell in January, but since people aren't accustomed to the cold, it will be super noticeable. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Like many recent record winter cold snaps (Like the Texas freeze in 2021 and the already mentioned Gulf Coast snow and cold last winter), the core of the coldest air relative to normal should sweep mostly to our west and south.

We'll briefly get into the coldest air Tuesday, but for the most part, we just have an extended spell of somewhat colder than normal, unsettled but not extreme weather to deal with here in the Green Mountain State.

We have a series of middling storms coming through, including a complicated mess Sunday into Tuesday. 

A quick hitting cold front is coming through today. We'll have some strong south winds in the Champlain Valley. Rain will come in this afternoon. It'll be pretty light, with just a few hundredth of an inch in some valleys with maybe a quarter inch in the north and mountains. 

Some mountain summits will get some snow. 

We'll get a break between storms tomorrow, with just sort of cloudy to partly sunny weather and temperatures up near 50 degrees - not bad for this time of year. 

Another storm will come in Sunday. In northern Vermont, precipitation might start as snow before switching to rain. 

Things get complicated Monday, as maybe a second storm could move northward along the New England coast. At this point, things should stay mostly rain in Vermont on Monday. 

The coldest air will come in Tuesday, and we should have some snow showers across Vermont, even in the valleys. It's still unclear how much snow will fall, but it's beginning to look like most areas will get at least a little. 

I imagine Burlington will get its first trace of snow of the season either Sunday or Tuesday. 

The first trace of snow of the season will be late in Burlington. The average first snowflake is on October 15. 

If Burlington gets an inch of snow on Tuesday, that would actually be a bit early. The average date of the first inch of snow is November 17. The earliest one inch snow on record was on October 9, 1979. 

The snow will keep piling up in the mountains over the next few days. There's already 13 inches of snow atop Mount Mansfield, and they'll have at least six more inches by Tuesday night. 

Killington Ski Resort is contemplating opening for the season during the middle of next week. 

After Tuesday, temperatures will moderate some, but still stay below normal. 

We'll get into an unfortunate, long lasting weather pattern that should feature a near-constant northwest flow of air. That will keep temperatures near to below normal for at least most of next week, if not beyond.

Such a weather pattern also means the frequent weather disturbances that come through won't have much moisture to deal with. That could spell below normal precipitation, especially in southern Vermont. 

We're still in a drought, so we need the wet storms. Aside from a possible decent rainfall Sunday and Monday, it looks like we're kinda out of luck.   

Frigid Day Is Here, Stay Warm! Other Cold Wave Coming, Too!

The air in St. Albans, and many other areas of Vermont had
a hazy appearance this frigid morning. That's "diamond dust,"
ice crystals that form in clear air during very 
cold, subzero temperatures. 

 As expected, the frigid weather has arrived in Vermont. Temperatures were in the mid single numbers to low teens below zero at dawn, with wind chills solidly in the minus 20s.  

In the "it could always be worse department," I checked conditions atop Mount Washington New Hampshire at 7 a.m.  

A lovely morning was in progress there with a temperature of 29 below, northwest winds of 61 mph gusting to 74 mph, giving a wind chill of 76 below.

Yeah, it's a lousy day for a winter hike. Don't do it! (I have to say that because crazy people have hiked Mount Washington in this weather, and some have died trying it).

Even though wind chills are "only" in the 20s to low 30s below zero today, needless to say, bundle up.  

One thing to watch out for is surprisingly slippery roads in spots, something I brought up yesterday.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington noted early this morning patchy areas of snow along Interstate 89 from Milton all the way to Montpelier. 

Plus, any bridge that goes over water probably has black ice from steam rising from that water. 

You'll also note that the air in some areas, including here in St Albans as I write this, has a hazy appearance. That's "diamond dust," which is ice crystals that form in frigid air. You know it's really cold when you see diamond dust. 

Here's another important tip. Keep pets indoors to be the best extent possible. Sure, you'll need to walk your doggos, and that's fine. But it would be dangerous to leave them outside for any extended period of time, even if they are normally outdoor dogs or ones that love playing in the snow. 

I know my pups, Jackson and Tonks, behaved different from usual when I let them out early this morning. Usually they like to spend time, sniffing around to smell which critters visited the yard overnight. This morning it was out the door, do their business, and run right back inside. 

We'll muddle through today with high temperatures that in many areas won't crack zero. 

This is a quick shot of Arctic air though.  Temperatures will fall pretty far below zero this evening. But west of the Green Mountains, readings will start to head in a more welcome direction and start to rise after midnight. East of the Green Mountains, some places could near 20 below before temperatures start to turn around early Wednesday. 

By tomorrow afternoon, we'll be in reasonable 20 to 25 degree air, Phew! We will have made it through a nasty subzero cold wave. All done, right?

Ummmmm. No.

Another large offshore storm - they keep missing us so we're not getting much snow - will move north toward the Canadian Maritimes and yank another shot of Arctic air down on us  from Quebec starting Friday.

Friday will probably be a bad day with falling temperatures and gusty north winds bringing back the wind chills. By Friday night, we'll be back well below zero again.  And it will stay cold through the weekend, with only some moderation by Sunday afternoon back into the teens.

From there, we're still looking for more systems that would give Vermont decent snows, but things are iffy at best. 

Yet another substantial storm looks like it might give the South more wintry weather over the weekend. The storm will turn north early next week.  Most computer models take that storm too far offshore to give Vermont any real snow.

But there is a slight glimmer of hope because a few models do take the storm fairly close to us. That's unlikely at this point, but there's a low chance of some decent snow. Stay tuned!