Vermont Frigid Weather To Go On Endlessly, But Nor'easter Will Be A Whiff

Sun began to poke through the trees this morning in
St. Albans, Vermont after some light snow earlier.
It will stay cold for the foreseeable future. 

 Yesterday was the day that this month officially turned colder than average. At least as measured in Burlington. 

A fairly warm start to the month meant temperatures overall were averaging above the 1990-2020 mean That is until the big cold wave hit last Friday. 

The Arctic air has been offsetting that warmth earlier in the month. So as of yesterday, Burlington was a fraction of a degree colder than that average for January. 

Today and the next two days will drive January's average to a level decidedly below average. And February looks like it will turn out to be a frigid month. 

At least yesterday "warmed" up. Burlington got up to 19 degrees, the hottest it's been since late afternoon last Friday. I hope you enjoyed yesterday's heat wave, because the temperature is plunging once again.

A weak disturbance is coming through today, which explains the patchy light snow parts of Vermont have been seeing this morning. It won't amount to much, with pretty much everybody getting less than an inch. Some places in southern Vermont won't get anything at all. 

NEW COLD WAVE

But everybody is going to share in the reinforced cold air. By "everybody" I mean all of us here in Vermont, and practically everyone east of the Mississippi River. 

The core of the cold air is still plunging almost due south, from Ontario, Canada today, to the Ohio Valley tomorrow,  then to the Southeast, in and around Georgia by Saturday. 

There's already been dozens of record low temperatures set over the past few days in the South. This push of frigid air will mean more record lows.

The air temperature of this blob of Arctic air isn't all that unusual as it passes through places like Marquette, Michigan and Gary, Indiana. Sure, it's much colder than normal for them, but the upper Midwest sees this kind of thing almost every winter. 

The fact that the air is plunging so far south, all the way to Florida, really, is what makes this special.  Northern and central Alabama and Georgia could see readings in the low to mid teens Friday and Saturday nights. That's not including the windchill. 

In Orlando, Florida, it could get as cold as the low 20s Saturday night. Usually, winds are pretty calm when Florida gets a freeze like this. But Orlando's winds could be howling up to 35 mph late Saturday and early Sunday. That'll bring wind chills into the single digits.

In Miami, actual temperatures will probably fall into the mid-30s. If Miami gets down to 36 degrees, it would be the coldest in 15 years. If it gets to 34, it'll be the coldest since 1989.

For us in Vermont, we're in the frigid-but-we've-seen-it-all-before crowd.

A cold weather advisory goes up for all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley. this evening and lasts through late morning Friday. Wind chills should be in the 20 to 30 below range. In the Champlain Valley, wind chills should reach the teens.

Temperatures in the teens today will go well below zero tonight and rise only to the single numbers tomorrow around Vermont. It'll stay cold like that through Sunday, though highs Saturday and Sunday should be back up in the teens. That's not an impressive warmup, that's for sure. 

THE NOR'EASTER AND BEYOND 

The cold punch of air in the southeast will stir up that nor'easter we've been advertising for days. The nor'easter will get quite strong by early Sunday near the North Carolina coast. A winter storm watch is up for the Carolinas and northeastern Georgia, as they might get several inches of snow. 

The nor'easter still looks like it could brush far eastern New England, but Vermont still looks safe from the storm. We might get clouds and a stiff, cold north wind, but that's about it. 

It looks like we might get a break of sorts early next week, when high temperatures could rise into the low and mid 20s, and overnight lows would rise into the single numbers. Those figures are only a little colder than average.

But after that, signs point toward more Arctic air arriving and lasting quite a while. The only hope here is that forecasts that far out - a week from now - are often inaccurate.  In this case, I'd very much like to be wrong about the newly cold air later next week. 

Quick Wednesday Evening Vermont Weather Update, Squalls, Then Very Cold, Then More Snow?

Snow squalls like this one approaching St. Albans,
Vermont in February, 2022 are possible Thursday and
Friday afternoons. Note in the background
the sudden transition from 
nothing to torrential snowfall.

Since the weather is getting very exciting once again, I figure some more frequent updates should be in the cards here. 

There's a series of things we need to look out for here in Vermont over the next few days:  

Scattered snow squalls tomorrow and Friday, bitter cold Friday night into Sunday at least, and then effects from that giant southern and central U.S. storm. 

THIS EVENING

Some light snow is working its way northeastward through the state this evening. It won't last long, but the expected inch or less of snow will be just enough to make the roads iffy tonight. 

SNOW SQUALLS

Quite a few snow showers and some snow squalls are on the agenda for both tomorrow and Friday afternoon and evening. It's impossible know when and where the squalls might hit this far in advance.

Just be ready for fast changing conditions on the roads if you're out and about tomorrow afternoon and evening, and Friday afternoon and evening. One minute you're in clear air on a dry highway, next minute you're in a whiteout on icy roads. 

It won't hurt to listen for snow squall warnings from the National Weather Service. If your area goes under one, it's probably best to postpone travel until the snow squall passes.

Each day, the snow showers will deposit an inch or less of snow on most of us. The heaviest squalls might leave up to two inches, and the Green Mountains could get a two day total of 2 to 5 inches.

BITTER COLD

The National Weather Service has issued an extreme cold watch from Friday evening until Saturday afternoon. We'll see rapidly falling temperatures to below zero with gusty northwest winds. Wind chills could reach 30 below. It would probably be best to reschedule outdoor activities during that period.

It'll remain at or below zero Friday night through at least late morning Sunday. The extreme cold watch expires Saturday afternoon because winds will turn light.

MORE SNOW?

A lot of the computer models are insisting on bringing some snow from that expected vast winter storm in the southern, central and eastern United States up into Vermont. 

I'll have a complete update tomorrow morning. 

Nation Faces Days Of Extreme Cold, And Huge Winter Storm Of Ice And Snow (Vermont Forecast Included)

Huge area in red on this map is expected to be affected
by a massive winter storm this weekend. 

The next several days will be peak winter across most of the United States.

And downright dangerous. 

Most of the northern tier of the United States from North Dakota to New England is in for intense cold. In northern Minnesota, wind chills could drop into the mid 50s below zero.  

Even worse, a massive winter storm is taking shape. It'll extend from eastern New Mexico, , through the southern and central Great Plains, then across  much of the South and the eastern United States.

The placement of who gets the worst of it is still a little in question, but the area affected will be massive. 

A large area across the South is expecting a crippling ice storm. Those most affected will endure possibly days-long power outages and severe tree damage. To the north of the ice, snow accumulation in some areas might be measured in feet, not inches. 

People across the South away from the immediate Gulf Coast are being told to stock up on food and supplies, just in case. 

The storm won't really start until Friday, but the warnings are already sounding pretty dire. Ryan Maue, a former chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told the Associated Press that the storm could be a "widespread potentially catastrophic event from Texas to the Carolinas....I don't know how people are going to deal with it."

The odd thing is this won't be a huge, strong low pressure system causing the problem. Instead, a massive blob of heavy, frigid Arctic air will press down into the southern United States. Then, a wet flow of warm, lighter, humid air will glide over this bitter cold air. The rising air will unleash a barrage of snow and freezing rain onto the millions of southerners shivering on the ground below. 

The storm will likely consolidate and finally grow stronger near the East Coast toward Sunday night. 

New Mexico and Texas will be hit first on Friday, then everything will spread eastward and eventually somewhat northward through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. 

This could easily become the first weather disaster of the year costing $1 billion or more. We'll have much more on this over the next several days as the storm develops.  

VERMONT IMPACTS

A classic cold winter afternoon sky yesterday over
St. Albans, Vermont. By this weekend, we'll
REALLY be shivering in subzero cold. 

Frankly, we're in for some miserable midwinter weather in Vermont, but overall, we're lucky.

We won't be nearly as cold as places like Minnesota. That massive storm should either give us a slight glancing blow, or not affect us at all.  

But we have a bit of snow in the forecast, some wind, and eventually that bitter cold air. Even when the chill eases off a bit toward the beginning of next week, we'll be mostly on the colder than normal side  right into February. Possibly through most of February. 

A series of weak weather fronts will harass us today through Friday. A lame warm front today will spread light snow through most of Vermont this afternoon and evening. Almost everyone will see an inch or less of accumulation. The mountains, as always, could pick up a bit more than that.

But even that little bit will probably make the roads a little iffy for the drive home from work this evening. 

The warm front will bring temperatures to the low 20s this afternoon, then those readings will hold steady tonight. In the Champlain Valley. Temperatures will actually slowly warm up overnight as south winds gust to 40 mph or even a bit more. 

Enjoy tomorrow, as it will be the last warm-ish day for quite awhile. Highs should briefly reach the low or even mid 30s in a few spots. A cold front coming at us will probably set off more afternoon and evening snow showers. A few spots away from the Champlain Valley might even see a brief snow squall. 

Once again, though, most places will see an inch or less, with - as always - a little more in the mountains. Like today, tomorrow's snow showers could once again make your drive home from work or school tomorrow afternoon a little annoying.

Thursday's cold front won't introduce us to the super cold air. It'll only get a little chillier. Another cold front on Friday will be the one to make us absolutely miserable. 

The first half of Friday should be OK, with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 20. But the wind will pick up and the temperature will fall all afternoon. Wind chill alerts will probably be issued starting later Friday and going through much of the weekend. 

We'll start the day with subzero temperatures Saturday morning, and those of us who get above zero Saturday afternoon will be the lucky ones.

Saturday night will be super cold. Early guesses are teens below zero. That's not even close to record cold territory, but it's much worse than what we've gotten used to. Clouds from that massive storm in the south might - again if we're lucky - keep us from getting even colder.

That huge storm is forecast to pass far to our south Sunday night. An early guess has it heading off the coast around Delaware.  Some of the forecast models are suggesting a little snow could make it all the way north into Vermont Sunday night despite our great distance from the storm. 

That moisture will be battling the very dry, cold air over us, so I'm still dubious as to whether we'll get any snow. I'll keep an open mind, though. 

It'll probably stay cold through next week and probably beyond, but it won't be quite as bad as what we'll deal with this coming weekend. 

Sort Of Cold Today In Vermont As We Await Severe Weekend Arctic Blast

"Planet Claire" style skies over West Rutland, Vermont
during last evening's northern lights display. Photo by Brent
Barnett via Meteorologist Jess Langlois/Facebook
 

 It really wasn't quite as cold this morning as I thought it might be here in Vermont, which is great news, considering what's coming.  

I hope you didn't miss it, but skies partly cleared last evening, so a lot of us got to see the northern lights. 

Viewing from the naked eye, it looked like the northern half of the sky over St. Albans had a pink haze. It almost made me think we were on the B-52s' Planet Claire.  "Planet Claire has pink air....."

Most of us started the day in the teens, which was actually a smidge above normal. Those readings won't go anywhere today. We'll stay right there in the teens. 

Tonight will get down into the single numbers above zero for the most part. The cold hollows might sneak a degree or two below zero. Banana belt towns might hold closer to 10 degree for so.  No biggie.

We've got one more brief warm up coming in before the bottom drops out of everything. The upcoming "warm" spell won't really feel that way since winds will be gusty most of that time. Wind chills ruin everything. 

Tomorrow will get into the 20s on increasing south winds. Tomorrow night will hold in the 20s as those south winds get stronger. The Champlain Valley could see gusts to 40 mph or so.  Nothing earth shattering, you'll hear the roar in the trees

The balmy day will be Thursday when many of us will hit the low 30s ahead of that Arctic cold front blasting out of Canada.

We won't get much snow out of what will essentially be a series of cold fronts. Some of us, especially in the northern Green Mountains, can expect some scattered snow showers tomorrow.  We'll have even more snow showers Thursday, and a couple towns might see the snow come down pretty hard, but really briefly. 

Between now and Thursday night, most of us will get less than an inch of snow. The Green Mountains could score a couple of inches.

COLD WAVE

I'm sort of burying the headline hy waiting until now in this post to talk about the Arctic cold that's coming. But it's still three days away, and it's easier for me to do things chronologically. Sue me. 

We will however, go from the above mentioned Planet Claire to bone chilling former Planet Pluto.

Well, OK, the average temperature on Pluto is minus 387 degrees Fahrenheit, says NASA.  I know we won't get that cold. But this weather wimp will whine that it will feel like 387 below. 

At this point, the cold wave looks like it will be a long slog, with the worst of it coming from Friday night to Monday night. 

The chilliest daytime during this whole escapade will probably be on Saturday. Many towns, especially in northern Vermont will probably stay at or below zero.

If Burlington's high temperature does not make it above zero Saturday, it will be the first time that's happened in four years.  If it stays under zero, that will make it the first time since January, 2018 they've stayed below zero all day. 

The expected low temperatures Saturday night should be mostly in the teens below zero. That'll likely make it the coldest night since February 4, 2023.

A slow warm up should start early next week, but temperatures will stay below normal.  

We'll have more on the cold snap as it draws nearer.

"Rusting Rivers" in Arctic An Ominous Sign Of Climate Change

Rusty water in a waterway in the Arctic. The permafrost
is melting, which releases metals that were once frozen
into place, onto the surface. 

High up in the Arctic, rivers and streams are turning red-orange, as if billions of nails were rusting away and flowing into what should be pristine brooks way up there. 

As NPR reports, these rusty rivers are now widely documented in the Brooks Range in northern Alaska. 

"Hundreds of Arctic rivers and streams are turning bright red-orange, not from chemical pollution, but from naturally occurring iron spilling from long-frozen ground as temperatures warm. 

The "rusting rivers" phenomenon, which has been documented across the Brooks Range in northern Alaska, offer a vivid example of the effects of climate change in a region that is warming faster than the global average."

Other metals, like aluminum and copper are also being release from the thawing permafrost, NPR says. Those metals can do a number on fish and other animals in the food chain. People are also wondering if the metals might contaminate rural drinking supplies, but so far, there's been no evidence of that. 

This information comes from an annual  "Arctic Report Card" that was recently released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). They've been doing this for 20 years because the Arctic is the fastest warming place on Earth. And what goes on in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. 

This annual report is threatened because - big eye roll - the Trump administration does not want any government reports to even hint at climate change. He's terribly allergic to the term, constantly referring to idea of a warming world as a "hoax"

Scientist hope to keep the report card going, maybe by working around the United States.  

As NPR reports:

"An independent network of global scientists writes and compiles the research in the annual report, offering it some shelter from political winds. Some sections of this year's edition openly discuss the effects of climate change, and at least one study notes its major cause - burning fossil fuels."

Let's hope Trump doesn't find out about that line.

It's depressing to realize that basic scientific facts are now much like Soviet-era samizdat, publications that take great risks at offending the Fascist In Chief. We can't be sure if there will be another valuable Arctic Report Card next year 

Other information in the 2025 Arctic Report Card:

-- The Greenland Ice Sheet lost 129 billion tons of ice in 2025, continuing its long term trend. 

-- Alaskan glaciers have lost an average of 125 vertical feet since the 1950s. 

-- Arctic sea ice reached its lowest level on record this fall and early winter. 

-- The period from October 2024 to September, 2025 was the Arctic's warmest and wettest on record. 

-- Because of the increased precipitation in the Arctic, snow cover was above average during the heart of winter.  But the snow cover was well below normal by June, because of the unusual Arctic warmth. 

-- The relative lack of ice and snow allows the sun to heat the ground and water in the Arctic more than it would otherwise. That makes existing left over snow and ice melt even faster. It's called a feedback loop.    

As I've said before, what goes on in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. As much as climate change is messing up the top of the world, its effects will bleed down to the mid-latitudes through higher sea levels on the coasts, and bigger, more destructive storms. 

Blustery Snow Today To Introduce A Very Wintry Vermont Week

This the National Weather Service's initial attempt
at a snow forecast for the week. It includes the light
snows today and the potentially heavier dump
Tuesday. While this map shows more than 
six inches in southern and central Vermont, this
is a SUPER uncertain forecast. Definitely
expect adjustments up or down as we get
closer to the event. 

With December starting tomorrow, the Vermont forecast is right on cue: This will be the first hardcore wintry week of the season. 

True, we won't be setting new record low temperature or breaking snowfall records. But if you like snow, bitter temperatures and biting winds, this will be your week. 

TODAY

As we get into the bulk of today, it will probably be the "warmest" day of the week, but it surely won't feel balmy.

Light snow had spread into most of Vermont as of 8 a.m. this morning.  This is part of the same storm that created a huge dump of snow across the Midwest yesterday. 

No huge dumps for us today, but we'll still feel the storm's effects. We won't have much precipitation, but it will be a dark, blustery, raw day.  South winds were picking up this morning, especially in the Champlain Valley and the narrow valleys along Route 7 in southern Vermont. 

Even though the snow is falling lightly, the gusts will blow it around, so there will be some visibility.  The winds will continue to pick up through the day, especially in the central and northern Champlain Valley. There, a wind advisory for gusts as high as 45 mph is in effect until 7 p.m. this evening. The wind advisory is also up for northeastern New York. 

The rest of Vermont will stay gusty, but not quite as bad as in the Champlain Valley. The south winds will transport in some warmer air, so many valleys will go over to light rain this afternoon.

Tonight, the storm's cold front comes through, throwing some more snow showers at us. 

For us, this is a small storm. Most of us will get an inch or less of snow. The combination of rain and melted snow should be around a tenth of an inch or less. No biggy, just a raw, blustery, yucky day, the kind you stay indoors for watching NFL games or Netflix. 

MONDAY

The calm before the next storm. It'll be colder than normal, as that is the trend of the week. As chilly as it's been lately, Burlington has surprisingly not had a high temperature yet this season that is below freezing. That could change tomorrow as most of us should stay in the 25 to 32 degree range during the day. 

TUESDAY

Here's where it gets interesting. 

A storm will start to get going somewhere near New Orleans Monday night. It will rocket northeastward to off the southeast New England coast Tuesday night, strengthening along the way. 

We still don't know if this means a dump of snow in Vermont or not. The exact track of the storm isn't nailed down yet. Somebody in New England will get a bunch of snow out of this, but we don't quite know who yet. 

If it goes right over the New England coast, all of Vermont will see at least a couple to several inches of snow. If it goes further east, it'll be mostly a southern Vermont thing. 

The weather models have been wonky, so I'm not trusting anything until we get closer to the event. Just know there will probably be snow for many if not all of us on Tuesday. For some of us, especially in southern and eastern Vermont, it could be quite a lot. 

We do know this storm will race by, so very few, if any people will get more than a foot of snow in New England, But the storm will be big enough to have real impacts on somebody, somewhere.. 

Adjust your plans accordingly and keep an eye out for updates. 

LATE WEEK

Wednesday will be calmer, ahead of the next system. Some sun should break out, and temperatures will rise into the 28-36 degree range for most of us. That's still a little cooler than average, but you ain't seen nothin' yet. 

The forecast for Thursday is actually more certain than it is for Tuesday, which is weird. An Arctic cold front will blast through with a band of snow showers and maybe snow squalls. The snow accumulation with the front won't be the biggest problem, but abrupt snow showers and gusty winds probably Thursday morning will make the roads a bit tricky.

The real issue is temperatures will crash amid howling northwest winds Thursday. Depending on the front's timing, we might make it into the 30s early in the day, then temperatures will fall through the 20s and teens through the day. 

Thursday night will be awful, with continued strong winds and temperatures falling to within a few degrees of zero for most of us. Wind chills should be well below zero.  I'm already planning on hiding under a pile of blankets at home that night. 

After Thursday night, temperatures will sort of warm up a little for the end of the week, but remain well below normal.  

Iceland Gearing Up For Atlantic Current Collapse

Iceland considers the risk of a critical Atlantic Ocean
current collapsing an existential threat. 

New research I posted about back in September about the possible collapse of a critical Atlantic Ocean current has Iceland on high alert. 

The newer research contradicted some earlier studies and said that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could shut down as soon as the middle of this century.  

That's really bad, because the current is what keeps western Europe mild and wet. Without the current, winters in western Europe would become something like central North America, and droughts would take hold. In effect, western Europe would suffer through a sort of regional ice age. 

This mess would, of course, be due to climate change.  

The collapse of the current would also cause bad, bad, worldwide effects, such as greatly increased water temperatures along United States East Coast. That would cause an abrupt rise in sea levels, since warm water expands. It would also might make the eastern United States more prone to hurricanes and other big storms. 

The collapse of the AMOC would also mess up rainfall amounts and seasons that farmers in Africa, India and South America have relied upon for centuries. 

Then there's Iceland. 

Like most of the rest of the world, Iceland has been warming up, thanks to climate change. The island nation way up in the North Atlantic actually saw their first mosquitoes in recorded history this year because the region had warmed up so much. 

If the AMOC shuts down, Iceland would definitely earn its name. It, too, benefits from the warmth of AMOC. 

Even though an AMOC collapse might not happen for a few decades, if at all, it has put Iceland on full alert:

According to Iceland Review:

"Iceland has, for the first time, classified a climate-related phenomenon as a national security threat, following warnings that a key Atlantic Ocean current system may be approaching collapse."

......"The move allows authorities to coordinate response plans across ministries, covering food and energy supplies, infrastructure and transport resilience."

MSN continues the story: 

"It is a direct threat to our national resilience and security.' Iceland Climate Minister Johann Pall Johansson said by email '(This) is the first time a specific climate-related phenomenon has been formally brought before the National Security Council as a potential existential threat.'"

Iceland is looking at a full range of possible effects of an AMOC crash, such as energy supplies, food security, infrastructure and transportation, both internal and with other nations.  

Other nations are taking notice, too. 

For instance, Ireland's weather service scientists briefed the nation's prime minister on the AMOC issue. Norway's environmental ministry said it was "seeking to deepen our understanding of the issue through new research" before determining whether to classify AMOC as a security risk,' MSN reported. 

INTERCONNECTED CHAOS

Of course, nobody knows when or if the AMOC will grind to a halt. If that happens, scientists think it would make Antarctica warm up even faster than it is now.

Newly released research also suggest that melting around West Antarctica now could help preserve the AMOC, or at least slow its demise.   

According to New Scientist:

"..it won't be enough to prevent major changes to the climate. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would still decline buy 60 percent, and its full recovery would take 3,000 years."

Which seems to me a little long to wait, don't you think?

As always, there's a lot of ifs, questions and blank spots in the research done by Sacha Sinet at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. 

 New Scientist again:

"According to simulations by Sinet and his colleagues, the timing of the melting is key. If a centuries-long pulse of Antarctic meltwater arrives at the same time as massive melt from Greenland, it will only see up the AMOC shutdown. 

If the Antarctic water arrives about 1,000 years before the peak of Greenland's melting, however, the AMOC would weaken for several hundred years, but then recover over the next 3,000 years. While the AMOC eventually recovered in all scenarios, this early Antarctic melt prevented its total collapses and sped up its revival." 

In other words, climate change isn't as simple as the world just warming up. Everything is connected, so expect the unexpected when it comes to climate change. 

August Was World's Third Hottest, In Line With Most Months This Year

As it has for several years now, the August world
map of whether temperatures were above or below
the 20th century average shows almost
 exclusively on the warm side. 

The latest monthly report on the state of the global climate tells us August was the world's third hottest on record. 

That's the same as most recent months, as this year continues to trend just a tad cooler than the record global heat of 2023 and 2024. But other than those two years, August was easily warmer than any other in at least the past 150 years. 

The top ten warmest global Augusts have all occurred since 2015. 

El Nino, which tends to heat the world even above those caused by climate change, boosted temperatures in 2023 and 2024. 

 El Nino is not active, so it's mostly just climate change keeping temperatures above previous years.

Land areas had their fourth warmest August, and oceans had their third warmest August. Warmest areas included the Arctic, which had its second warmest August on record after 2023. Other particularly hot areas were most of the northern Pacific Ocean, far eastern Asia, western and northern Europe, northern Siberia, the Caribbean, eastern and northern South America, and adjacent South Atlantic Ocean waters. 

Unprecedented heat waves hit Spain, France, Japan, and sections of the Middle East. 

 Cooler than average temperatures, as usual, were hard to find in August. The only places that were a wee bit on the chilly side were parts of the southeast United States, eastern Europe, Far East Russia, a couple little sections of Africa, a perennial little cold spot in the North Atlantic south of Greenland and parts of Antarctica.

There was actually a small dot in the southern Pacific Ocean that had a record cold August, which is relative rarity in this age of climate change. 

The bottom line is that 2025 will offer a break of sorts from two consecutive record hot years the world had in 2023 and 2024.  The bad news is 2025 will certainly be in the top five list of warmest years. 

Meteorological summer, running from June 1 through August 31 was also the third warmest on record. 

The streak of warmest ever global temperatures from 2023 and 2024 extended into January, which was the hottest on record. Since then, each month this year was third hottest after the previous two years. Except for April and May, which were the second hottest on record for the world. 

I'm already guessing that 2026 also might not break the 2024 record for global heat. La Nina, the opposite weather pattern of the heat-adding El Nino is beginning to take over, according to latest NOAA forecasts.

At the moment, it doesn't look like it will be a particularly strong one, and it might not last very far into 2026.  But that could keep next year comparatively "cool."  Meaning there's a decent chance the world won't get as hot as 2024. 

However, there is no sign that climate change will ever go away. The world will keep getting hotter, and we will have another year - probably soon rather than later - that we'll have yet another record hot year. 

 

 

Arctic Sea Ice Melting Slows Despite Hotter Atmosphere

Dire warnings that Arctic sea ice would be a thing of
the past by several years ago hasn't happened. A 
new study explains why those warnings were
false alarms - but only for now. 

This sounds like great news:

Despite the increasing pressure of climate change, Arctic sea ice decline has slowed quite a bit. 

The slowdown has been noticeable in all months of the year.  The month of September has seen no statistically significant decline in sea ice over the past two decades. 

The melt rate per the past 20 years has been at least twice as slow as the longer term rate. 

But when it comes to climate change, there's never good news.  This slower melt won't last forever. More on that in a bit. 

Arctic sea ice is important because what goes on at the North Pole doesn't stay at the North Pole. If the ice went away entirely during summers,   the pace of Earth's warming could increase. White ice reflects away the sun's heat. Blue ocean water absorbs it. 

The Arctic is already warming faster than the rest of the planet and if the ice goes, the heating up there would really ramp up. 

An ice-free Arctic would accelerate climate change and throw things even more off balance than they already are. That, in turn could lead to even bigger climate extremes than we're seeing now.

Even if all that climate bad stuff doesn't happen, an ice-free Arctic would invite even more ships, resource mining,  geopolitical conflict, population and everything else that would dangerously pollute what has been a rather pristine environment.

THE STUDY

This slow Arctic melt all comes from research recently published in Geophysical Research Letters. 

Per the study's abstract:

"Most of the evidence from these climate models suggests that natural climate variations have played a large part in slowing the human-driven loss of sea ice. However, it is not entirely certain whether changes in the human influence on climate (the "forced response") have also contributed.

Overall, while it may sound surprising that Arctic sea ice loss has slowed down even as global temperatures hit record highs, the climate modeling evidence suggests we should expect periods like this to occur somewhat frequently."

The researchers ran climate models which show natural cycles can create these pauses in Arctic melting.

"Even though there is increased emissions (and) increased global temperatures, you can still get periods where you have very minimal loss of Arctic sea ice for sustained periods," said Mark England, lead author of the study. 

Energy always transfers back and forth between oceans and the atmosphere, with the oceans able to store much more energy than the air. 

There's natural cycles in which the oceans take in a little more energy than normal, which makes the atmosphere a tad cooler. Those cycles also sometimes allow the atmosphere to keep a slightly greater share of energy, so the climate warms up. 

The study concluded that natural cycles kept waters around the Arctic a little cooler, so the rate of ice loss has slowed. 

Mark England,  lead author of the study, said that without climate change, sea ice might well have expanded during the cycle we're in now.  

The study helps explain why dire predictions of an imminent summer time ice-free Arctic never came to pass. 

Sea ice in the Arctic hit record minimums in 2007 and 2012, leading to speculation the Arctic could have its first ice-free summer by 2020.  In hindsight, the researchers wrote, that idea was overly alarmist. 

MELT TO RESUME?

All good things must come to an end, though, and so will this cycle that's been preserving the Arctic sea ice. 

The current melting slowdown could last another five to 10 years, according to the climate models and the study. When that happens (It's a when, not an if) the ice loss would accelerate and at that point we might actually see the demise of Arctic sea ice during summers. 

In the short term, the ice up there is clearly in short supply up in the Arctic, despite the slowdown in melting. 

In its recent July climate report, the National Centers for Environmental Information said Arctic sea ice was the fourth smallest on record for July, at 420,000 square miles below average.  

Another melt zone scientist watch closely is Greenland. That ice will never entirely go away, at least not for hundreds, more likely thousands of years, if ever

Greenland matters even more than the Arctic because whatever melts off of Greenland becomes sea level rise.   If the ice on the Arctic ocean melts, it doesn't really raise se levels. It's like the ice in your gin and tonic melting. 

Greenland is probably subject to cyclical weather and climate patterns too, but the research we're talking about in this post didn't address that. 

This year, the Greenland melt has been above normal once again, but it's not setting records. There was a lot of melting between July 7 and 20, which tipped the scales to above the 1981 -2019 average for total melt extent, say the National Snow and Ice Data Center. But overall, the number of days with melting lagged behind some of the warmer summers in the recent past. 

There has been a last minute spike in Greenland ice melting in the past few days, but once that tapers off, that'll be mostly it for 2025.   By early September, the Greenland melt season is pretty much over.  

Ominous Stat: Arctic Sea Ice Extent Way Under-Performed This Winter And Set A Bad Record

The winter "maximum" sea ice extent in the Arctic was
the lowest on record this year. That's an ominous sign for 
more climate change coming down the pike.

 It's official.

The extent of Arctic sea ice, which normally reaches its peak in March, was pretty pathetic this year. 

It's a sign climate change continues unabated, and it's a factor that could help accelerate the problem. 

First, the immediate issue at hand, per the Washington Post:

 "Just 5.53 million square miles of ice had formed as of March 22 this year - the smallest maximum extent in the 47-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Since then the ice has already begun to melt again."

WaPo goes on:

"The record comes age a grim time for ice in all corners of the globe. In Antarctica, which has historically been more isolated from the effects of human-causing warming, sea ice shrank this month to the second lowest extent on record.  Research published in the journal Nature in February found that Earth's glaciers are dwindling at an accelerating rate,"

Back up there in the Arctic, this year's maximum ice extent was 31,000 square miles smaller than the previous record. That 31,000 square miles is about the same size as South Carolina. 

The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the globe. This winter was a classic example. Some areas of the far north were as much as 22 degrees Fahrenheit above average, which helps explain why Arctic ice didn't freeze as it should have

When there's less sea ice, the Arctic can warm even faster. More ice means when the sun shines on those gleaming white surfaces, bouncing the sun's heat back up into space.

When there's blue open water instead of ice up there in the Arctic, the sun's warmth is absorbed by that water Or as WaPo explains:

"With so little sea ice in the Arctic this year, more sunlight will be able to reach the open ocean, which absorbs more than 90 percent of the radiation that hits it. This will further warm the region, accelerating ice melt and exposing even more water to the light."

That's known as a feedback loop. Arctic ice melts because of climate change. That allows more heat to come in, melting even more ice and accelerating climate change even more. 

As I always like to say, what goes on the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic.  

Sure, the lack of ice makes the Arctic melt even faster, but the warming effect does to an extent spread all over the world. It would just make our recent spate of record and near record hot years just keep going and going, like some torrid, evil Energizer Bunny.  

A lack of ice in the Arctic won't in itself make sea levels rise. As you've probably heard me say before. If the ice cubes in your glass of gin and tonic melt, it won't make the glass overflow. But the Arctic heat that might last through the summer can bleed on over to the Greenland ice cap, which is above sea level. The more that ice cap melts, the higher sea levels go. 

Global Sea Ice Hit Record Low In February, Aided By Arctic's Year Without A Winter

The trend line in Arctic sea ice extent in February.
It hit a record low this year. The trend line has
been sharply downward

 The steady drumbeat of climate change news and details keeps coming along, and it just doesn't stop.

The latest is a new low in the extent of sea ice around the world. 

Per the Washington Post:

"Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that the daily global sea ice extent, which combines the amount of sea ice present in the Arctic and Antarctic, hit a new low in early February and remained below the record from 2023 for the rest of the month."

The Arctic was largely to blame for February's poor ice performance. WaPo continues:

"In particular, researchers said, the Arctic has continued to experience steadily less ice over time. The region has warmed at several times the global average, and while sea ice in the Arctic usually reaches its annual peak in March, it recorded its lowest ever monthly extent for February last month."

Much of the Arctic experienced their version of a year without a winter this year. Yes, it was frickin' cold up there, with temperatures usually far, far below zero.  

But not as far below zero as usual, and some weird winter heat waves extended well north into the Arctic this winter.  February temperatures were as much as 20 degrees above normal, so the usual winter manufacturing of sea ice up there faltered. 

MIDWINTER ARCTIC THAW?

The weirdest moment came on February 2, when areas very close to the North Pole were an incredible 68 degrees warmer than normal. Which meant the actual temperature was very close to the freezing mark of 32 degrees. A buoy just south of the North Pole registered a temperature of 33 degrees that day. 

You're supposed to be rapidly forming and thickening ice near the North Pole in early February, not melting it. Ice is supposed to grow steadily in the Arctic during February. Instead, it stalled twice, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The Groundhog Day hot spell was caused by a strong storm near Iceland that pulled very warm air toward the North Pole. The air was made extra hot by record warm sea temperatures in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. Climate change helped turn a rare winter Arctic hot spell into something extraordinary 

Scientists aren't sure if something like this has happened before, but an event in February, 2018 at least came very close.  

Meanwhile, at the end of the Antarctic summer, the extent of ice down there was close to its annual minimum for the year as February closed.  It looks like this year's minimum ice extent in Antarctica will come in at a tie for second lowest, with the years 2022 and 2024. Final figures on that are due soon.   

WHY THIS IS BAD

Here's why a lack of sea ice in the Arctic is bad. The white ice reflects the sun's heat back to outer space. Blue open ocean water absorbs it. If not much ice forms in the darkness of an Arctic winter, then there's lots of extra blue Arctic ocean water to absorb sunlight in the spring and summer. This further warms the Arctic, and in turn the rest of the world. 

It's a classic feedback loop. 

The loss of Arctic ice won't raise sea levels. I mean, when the ice cubes in your gin and tonic melts, your glass doesn't overflow. Same principal here.

However, the fact that the lack of ice in the Arctic is helping accelerate global warming, that would in turn accelerate melting off of glaciers on land. Which of course would increase the worldwide sea level. 

Final figures aren't in yet, but early indications are February globally had the slightest cooldown compared to most months in recent years. But it's no reason to cheer. 

February might end up as the world's third warmest on record, instead of the hottest or second hottest we've kept seeing over the past couple of years.

But a February that comes in at #3 on the top ten hottest list during a La Nina, which is supposed to cool the world a little bit, is not encouraging at all.

I'll have more details on our global February once more data becomes available.  

Saturday Evening Vermont/New England Snow Forecast Update

The updated snowstorm forecast for Sunday night. 
There's still a big bust potential with this forecast, 
and we could end up with much less or much
more than indicated here. 

Very much like this morning, there's still some questions as to how much snow will fall in Vermont and elsewhere in New England with a fast-moving nor'easter Sunday night, but the forecasts are coming into better focus. 

Before we get into that, we should recap the wind we saw in Vermont today, especially in the Champlain Valley. As of 5 p.m. that wind was dying down, after some pretty hefty gusts earlier. 

Top wind speeds reported include 56 mph at Colchester Reef, 50 mph at the Milton Sandbar and 49 mph at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Luckily there were very few power outages to report as the winds did not appear quite strong enough to cause damage.

We're still expecting that cold front tonight. It's already created scattered rain and snow showers this afternoon and evening. Southwest winds aloft have prevented the Champlain Valley from really getting anything.

Temperatures will crash later tonight as the cold front comes through and the Arctic air rushes in.

THE STORM

Forecasts for this nor'easter that will race past us Sunday night have settled on a path that would take it probably just offshore of Cape Cod and Nantucket. 

That puts central New England in the golden zone for snow. A stripe of winter storm warnings for heavy snow extends from West Virginia, on through western Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts

The winter storm watch in Bennington and Windham counties in far southern Vermont has been upgraded to a winter storm warning. Most places under the warnings can expect six to nine inches of snow. 

A winter weather advisory goes north into Rutland, Windsor and Orange counties, where three to seven inches of snow are anticipated.

Totals are still expected to taper off pretty quickly as you head northwest. It looks like the Champlain Valley might only see an inch or two of snow.

Maybe. 

The above forecast is as it stood as of Saturday evening. There's still a ton of wiggle room in this prediction. A slight shift in the storm's path will upend this forecast. That's because there will be a sharp cutoff on the northwestward edge of the storm between heavy snow and basically flurries. 

The storm could still nudge itself a little further northwestward than expected. If that happens, most of Vermont could really get a decent dump. On the other hand, a slight shift further southeastward than expected might leave most of the Green Mountain State without much snow at all.

Whatever happens, it will be pretty cold while it's snowing. Temperatures will fall into the single numbers or at best, lower teens. That'll leave us with really fluffy snow, if it snows where you are. 

This will be a brief snowfall because the storm will be racing by so quickly. It'll start in southern Vermont late Sunday afternoon and the evening elsewhere. It's scheduled to end before dawn Monday. 

Plan on difficult travel Sunday night, especially the further south and east you go. The snowplows will clear most of the snow off the road pretty quickly, but it'll be too cold for salt to work. Which means icy roads will linger on roads and highways well into the Monday morning commute.

One part of the forecast that has stayed firm is the anticipated frigid weather. We'll have highs in the single numbers to low teens Monday through Wednesday, with below zero readings at night. Breezes will introduce a bitter wind chill to this mess. 

Vermont Week Ahead: Yet More "Flurried To Death" Weather, With Some Twists

 Vermont - at least the northern half - has seemingly constantly snowed this month. 

This National Weather  Service snow prediction map
looks very much like the ones you saw last week.
This new prediction tells us the northern Green
Mountains will get a bunch of additional snow,
while southeastern Vermont misses out again. 

Every day, some snow fell somewhere in the Green Mountain State. Most of the time, not much snow falls on any one day, with the exception of some good dumps in the northern mountains here and there. 

Even in the Champlain Valley, measurable snow has fallen in Burlington on seven of the first 11 days of the month. 

It hasn't been much, as snowfall for the month so far is only a couple inches above average. Snowfall for the entire winter so far is still a good six inches on the light side in Burlington. 

Near the summit of Mount Mansfield, the snow depth has reached 46 inches, which is a little more than the 38 inches that is average for this date at the snow stake. In mid to low elevations, snow depth is up to 17 inches in towns like Westfield and Greensboro. 

In what has been mostly snow-free low elevations in southern Vermont, there's finally a dusting to an inch on the ground. 

MORE SNOW

This flurried to death regime in Vermont will continue all week. There are a few twists and turns to this however, that will make things at times just slightly different than last week. 

Today: An exception to the daily snow rule. Flurries will be hard to come by and at least some sunshine will brighten our Sunday. It'll be a bit warmer than it has been too, with highs well into the 20s, maybe near 30 in the warm spots on southern valleys. That's about normal for this time of year.

Monday/Monday Night: The snow will be back. At least for some of us.  Ahead of a cold front of sorts, it will be fairly mild with many of us reaching the low 30s. But the air will be cooling aloft, which sets us up for some sort of convective snow showers. 

It'll be similar to those hit and miss showers and thunderstorms we get in the summer. Instead of thundershowers, we'll have scattered snow showers. A few, especially later Monday and Monday night, could turn into snow squalls. 

Only some of us will get those. The squalls might lay down a quick one to three inches where they hit, and also reduce visibility and quickly mess with road conditions. 

Forecast precipitation map for Tuesday into 
Wednesday for the United States. You usually
see lots of blues and purples, indicated heavy
rain or snow. But the nation will be remarkably
dry this week, with the only real precipitation
is snow around the Great Lakes and n
in northern New England. 

Tuesday-Wednesday: We'll be back to the same regime we had last week. Persistent snow showers will cover northern Vermont. 

Once again, valleys will only see a couple, maybe a few inches of snow. The  northern Green Mountains will once again see several inches to locally as much as a foot of snow midweek. 

Southeastern Vermont, particularly the lower Connecticut River Valley, will miss out again 

Vermont, and areas around the Great Lakes where there will be torrential lake effect snows, will be the "wettest"  part of the nation midweek.

 Here in Vermont, if you melt down the snow we're forecast to receive, southern Vermont would get less than a tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent, while some northern areas could see more than a quarter inch of "rain equivalent."

Usually this time of year, storms, especially on the West Coast and in the South, often produce heavy precipitation.

There is strangely nothing going on midweek. The whole nation will be dry, which is odd to see in January, But that will change at the end of the week. 

Then things change radically.

Late Week/Next Weekend

The end of the week and next weekend is looking the most interesting, for us here in Vermont and for most of the United States as a whole.

In about six or seven days from now,   it's beginning to look like a really, really nasty Arctic outbreak is going to plunge south from near the North Pole and seriously chill the eastern half of the U.S. 

It's a little early to know how intense this cold snap will be, but it's looking like one of the more intense ones in recent years. 

At first, the bitter air will attack from Canada via the northern Plains, which would turn the wind flow southerly up the East Coast.

That means the snow ahead of the next cold front coming through here could mix with or change to rain for a time around here in Vermont. Too soon to tell for sure, but it's possible. Which would be a bit of a bummer, but you have to expect that from time to time. 

It then looks like that frigid air will spill into northern New England.  Again, too soon to tell, but it's possible we could be looking at well below zero temperatures about seven to 10 days from now.

It's turning into a longer winter than we've seen in recent years 

 

Arctic Now Becoming Emitter Of Carbon Dioxide, That Dreaded Greenhouse Gas

In this photo from U.S. Bureau of Land Management,
permafrost, which has been increasingly thawing in
the Arctic, erodes into the Beaufort Sea.

Once upon a time, the Arctic used to be the place where carbon dioxide went to die.  

At least it seemed that way. It would get stored in the permafrost, seemingly locked in that icy prison never to bother us in the atmosphere again. never to bother us in the atmosphere again. 

Back in the day, that didn't matter much anyway.  There wasn't so much carbon dioxide in the air, so no real climate change. At least that's the way it was a century or more ago.

Now, just when we don't need more greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the Arctic is starting to belch it out, according to new information from NOAA. 

 The world has warmed up enough through climate change to alter the ecosystems of the Arctic, and that is prompting that stored carbon in the permafrost to come out of hiding to join the world's hot and getting hotter party. 

The news comes the 2024 Arctic Report Card, researched and written by 97 scientists from 11 countries.

NOAA says

"After storing carbon dioxide in frozen soil for millennia, the Arctic tundra is being transformed by frequent wildfires into an overall source of carbon to the atmosphere, which is already absorbing record levels of heat-trapping fossil fuel pollution."

Wildfires in the areas of North America with permafrost have increased in the past couple decades. The report says that since 2003, emissions from polar wildfires averaged 207 million tons of carbon each year. That's more than the annual carbon emissions from nations like Argentina and Austria. 

Arctic wildfires are only a relatively small piece of the problem.  The permafrost is melting more and more, releasing carbon into the air instead of storing it. That's why, for the first time, the Arctic is making the climate change problem worse, not better.

I found a good explanation of this at NPR:

"Twila Moon, lead editor of the Arctic Report Card and  scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, likened permafrost to chicken in the freezer: As long as it stays frozen, microbes stay away.

'Once you have that chicken out of your freezer, it's thawing and all those microbes are getting to work, breaking down the chicken, making it rot,' she said. 'The permafrost is really doing the same thing.'"

There was the tiniest glimmer of good news from Greenland, but it was definitely nothing to get the Champagne and confetti out to party. 

The Greenland Ice sheet mass loss was the lowest since 2013, mostly because it snowed more than usual up there. Still, the ice shoot lost somewhere in the broad range of 22 and 77 billion tons of ice last year. 

That was enough to raise the global sea levels by 0.15 millimeters. Which is too small for anybody to notice. But if you add in all the other sources of sea level rise, and compound them year after year, it starts to make a big difference. 

This report demonstrates that the Arctic has changed much in just a few decades. There's no way it's going to stay as it is  now, either. It's going to get worse.

The Arctic is the fastest warming region of the world.  There's no signs, and no reasons for that warming to slow down as fossil fuel emissions keep cranking.  Since the Arctic is also adding those emissions, if anything, the pace at which the Arctic deteriorates will also increase.  

Persistent July Heat Broke Impressive Records In Several U.S. Cities

Clouds billow up on July 17, taking advantage of another
in a string of steamy very warm days in Vermont this summer.
Many cities on the west and east coasts had their hottest
July on record, and those who didn't came close. 

 We in Vermont weren't the only ones who endured what seemed like never ending summer heat during July. 

Plenty of other cities, mostly in the West, with some in the East were even more impressive. 

Death Valley, California had the hottest month ever observed at any place on Earth in July. The average temperatures, as measured at Furnace Creek there, was 108.5 degrees during July. That breaks the old record of 108.1 set in 2018.

The list of cities reporting their hottest July include Sacramento, Bakersfield and several other California cities, Las Vegas, Portland, Salem, Redmond and Eugene, Oregon; Spokane, Washington, St. George, Utah, Albany, New York, Hartford, Connecticut, Concord, New Hampshire and Orlando and Fort Lauderdale, Florida. 

I'm sure I'm missing many other cities that had a record hot July, but you get the idea.

Here in Vermont, Burlington "only" managed to see its third hottest July on record this year. 

While the East and West coasts were hot, the middle of the United States was near normal, or even a little cooler than average in spots. 

Within a few days, we should see July data that assesses the United States as a whole. At mid-month or so, we'll know how July fared across the globe. Early indications are July ended a 13-month long stretch of consecutive record warm global months. Even so, July for the world as a whole will surly come in much warmer than the 20th century average 

We do know in some areas, including some weird spots, the extreme heat continued into August. For example, how about a nice tropical beach vacation on the Arctic Ocean shores in far northwestern Canada and northern Alaska? 

Deadhorse, Alaska, right on the Arctic Ocean shore in not normally a tropical paradise, but it reached 89 degrees there on August 6.  That is likely the hottest it's been anywhere in the world north of 70 degrees latitude. 

In the neighboring Northwest Territories of Canada in the far north, all time record highs were set a Little Chicago, 96.6 degree; Fort McPherson, 94.8 degree, Inuvik, 94.6 degrees and Trail Valley, 33.6 degrees. 

Although much of the eastern United States has cooled off somewhat from the persistent heat of July, it's still quite warm in much of Canada as a strong ridge of high pressure in the middle of that nation holds firm.

Summers are getting longer in the northern hemisphere with climate change. Which of course means this summer is definitely not over yet.  

Hot Times In The Arctic: Annual Report Card Shows Big Changes Affecting Entire World

The Arctic got at best a D- in NOAA's annual Arctic report
card that takes a look at how climate change is affecting
the top of the world. Remember, what goes on in the
Arctic does not stay in the Arctic .

 Most of the world has had a really hot year in this age of climate change. 

Relatively speaking, the Arctic was arguably the most out of whack, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's annual Arctic Report Card, which was released Tuesday. 

The main takeaway from this year's edition: The Arctic is warming almost four times faster than the world as a whole, and had their hottest summer since at least 1900,

According to NPR:

"'The Arctic is now more relevant to us that it has ever been before,' said NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad. 'In many cases, what we're seeing is - by a few years - the kinds of impacts that we're going to see elsewhere in the country.'

Climate change in the Arctic doesn't just offer a view of the future. It also directly influences worldwide changes across ecosystems, from sea-level rise, to new weather patterns to altered wildlife migrations. 

As Spinrad put it,' what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic."

The report has plenty of examples of how warming in the Arctic is screwing with people who live near the upper reaches of the Earth, and everybody elsewhere. 

The Arctic had its hottest summer on record and its sixth warmest year on record. Despite the summer heat, the Arctic "only" had its sixth lowest sea ice extent on record.  That was because some pockets of the Arctic were relatively cool, like the East Siberian Sea and areas of ice near Alaska. That slowed the ice melt in the summer a little. 

Greenland lost 150 billion tons of ice. That's bad because Greenland is the second biggest source of global sea level rise. One mitigating factor became apparent this year. A warmer Arctic means a wetter Arctic. At least most of the time. That means it snowed more than usual in Greenland this year. The extra snow ensured that the loss of Greenland ice was less than the recent average. 

It's worth noting that the peak high point of Greenland's ice sheet, 10,000 feet above sea level, got above freezing this summer for only the fifth time on record. 

Worldwide commerce is being affected by a warming Arctic, or better or worse. As the Washington Post tells us:

"The Northwest Passage, which allows ships to pass between the Atlantic and Pacific archipelago, was relatively ice free by late August....The Northwest Passage has long been an object of fascination as a means to dramatically reduce shipping distances and costs, and especially since 2007, when dramatic melting first opened it up."

Shipping companies are really taking notice of this. Early in my lifetime, it was quite a laughable idea that the Northwest Passage would be a viable shipping route. How times change with climate change. 

Wildfires, of all things, are becoming increasingly common in the Arctic.  As I've already reported, most of Canada was seemingly on fire during 2023. That includes the far north of that nation.

Sure, as noted, the Arctic is by and large getting wetter, but the droughts in between the rains are also getting worse. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"More than 90 percent of the 11 million acres that burned across Canada through the end of October was in the Northwest Territories, according to the report. Data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service released Tuesday showed that Canada accounted for 23 percent of global wildfire carbon emissions this year."

Climate change is making Arctic salmon populations weird. That's important because that's the livelihood of many people in the Arctic. 

Says NPR: 

It'll be interesting, and probably alarming to see what happens in the next 12 months up in the Arctic. El Nino is helping to supercharge climate change, at least temporarily. 

Though I'm sure there will be record warmth up there this winter, it won't matter too much quite yet because it will still be too cold for appreciable warming.

But a warm winter would make less ice for than normal, setting the stage for even lower sea ice extent next summer. Greenland remains a wildcard. I wonder if huge heat waves - at least by their standards - will cause even greater ice loss than in recent years. 

Remember the quote cited above: What goes on the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. It's part of the reason we in Vermont choked on wildfire smoke last summer. Gawd knows what a hot Arctic will bring us next year. 

Friday Morning Arctic Blast Update: UGH!

Since it's so bitterly cold out, I'll try to warm you up a little
with a photo of a beautiful warm, sunny Vermont summer
 day a couple years ago. 

 Well, it's here. The long awaited Arctic blast, polar vortex, whatever you want to call it. 

Temperatures were crashing early this morning as expected. For instance, Burlington dropped from 24 degrees at midnight to 2 above by 6 a.m. 

Temperatures will continue down and reach below zero soon, if they haven't already, and will stay below zero all day. Wind chills are ramping up, and the expected 30 to 45 below wind chill values will hit as the day wears on. 

MORNING DRIVE TIME

There's some slick areas on the roads this morning from those brief but heavy snow squalls overnight. Some of the squalls were intense enough to create some thundersnow up in Orleans County. 

 Road salt doesn't work great in low temperatures, so any ice lingering on the roads won't easily go anywhere.  Bridges and overpasses, especially over rivers will be especially dangerous. Steam rising from the water often forms black ice on the bridge.

That's one the reasons we see so many winter crashes on the Interstate 89 bridges over the Winooski River between Winooski and Burlington.

From about Burlington south into Addison County, the frigid winds blowing across the mostly unfrozen Lake Champlain  today will create light lake effect snow.  

Areas exposed to those strong northwest winds will also suffer from blowing snow that can briefly reduce visibility and leave an area of snow on the roads. You're driving along and the roads seem OK, then you hit that snow in skid out. 

Further north, this problem is even worse. There's a blizzard warning up for far northern Maine today. There won't be much new snow up there, either, but strong winds and low temperatures will create a ground blizzard.

A ground blizzard, common in the northern Plains but less so here, is when there's little or no snow falling out of the sky, but blowing snow is so thick that visibility is reduced on the roads to near zero.

TOO COLD TO DO ANYTHING

Otherwise, the bitter cold air is dry, so most places won't see any additional snow. 

If you had big plans today or tomorrow, check to see if they're still on.  They probably aren'.t Besides, today and tonight especially will be a perfect time to stay indoors, eating stew and binge watching Netflix or Hulu or something. 

Another photo attempt to warm you up today. Photo is
at the Burlington, Vermont waterfront during a July, 
2018 heat wave. I remember it was 91 degrees 
when I snapped this photo. I sincerely doubt it's
this nice along the Burlington lake front today.

Many schools in Vermont are closed today. I know, I know. I went to school, too, in weather this bad when I was a kid. But the fact that we've had such warm winters is a bit of a shock. People aren't use to this.

Jay Peak announced Friday that it would shut down its ski lifts today and probably run them on a limited basis on Saturday. "While this may sadden the hardest of our corps, it's in the interest of both our team and guests that we do so," the resort said in a statement issued Thursday.

I'm sure other ski resorts are closing or limiting lifts today, too. 

That gets me to something I brought up before that needs to be repeated: Will you hard core adventurers just STOP.  Don't climb Mount Washington, just for this one 48 hour period.  Don't go for a jog in just shorts and a t-shirt. You know who you are. I've seen you. 

You're not impressing anyone, and if your hiking and skiing the back woods in this ridiculousness, you put rescuers in danger, too. Not just yourself. Or do you care?

Phew! I really had to get that out of my system. 

The annual Penguin Plunge into Lake Champlain in Burlington to benefit Special Olympics is also canceled, and somehow turned into a remote event. The real deal had been scheduled for Saturday, but meteorologists, the City of Burlington and organizers deemed the event too dangerous give the expected wind chill.  

Organizers are telling would-be plungers to instead, after the cold eases, to make snow angels in bathing suits, or have snowball fights in shorts and t-shirts, or anything like that between now and February 20.  

TONIGHT

Snuggle in for a frigid night. The forecast hasn't really changed in days as to how cold it will get overnight and early Saturday morning.

The banana belt towns near Lake Champlain should bottom out in the mid to upper teens below zero, with continued wind chills in the 35 to 45 below range. Most other places in northern and central Vermont should get into the low to mid 20s below zero with wind chills in the 40s below. The coldest hollows should flirt with 30 below - actual temperature.

This terrible weather is still looking like an incredibly quick hitter. Saturday will still be frigid, but not as cold or windy as today.  Most places should actually get to a few degrees above zero by mid to late afternoon.

Overnight Saturday, it will actually warm up, and be pretty decent by Sunday morning, with temperatures at dawn probably in the teens for most of us.  Those readings will go into the upper 20s to mid 30s by late afternoon Sunday. That's actually a wee bit warmer than average. 

And, every day during the upcoming week will be warmer than average for this time of year. 5