2025 Was World's Third Warmest; Past Three Years In Top 3 Hottest

 Scientists confirmed this week that 2025 was the world's third hottest year since at least 1850. 

World temperatures compared to the long term 
average since 1850.  As you can see, virtually the
whole world was warmer than that average in 2025.
The blob of white in the Pacific Ocean represents
La Nina, which is supposed to cool the world
a bit, but didn't last year. The white blob
south of Greenland represents melt water from
that ice cap, which keeps the North Atlantic cooler,

As NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, or NCEI tells us, 2025 was 1.17 degrees Celsius, or 2.11 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average. Last year just barely missed tying 2023 as the second hottest year, missing it by 0.02 degrees Celsius or 0.04 degrees Fahrenheit.

At the start of 2025, climatologists said they expected the year to end up cooler than the previous two because a La Nina pattern had taken over for most of the year. La Ninas tend to cool the Earth slightly. 

That 2025 was a La Nina year and still ranked as third hottest is worrisome, since climate change clearly overwhelmed the expected cooling.

NCEI added that it's now becoming routine for years to end up warmer than the 20th century average by more than 1 degree Celsius:

"Notably, the 10 warmest years in the 176-year record have all occurred since 2015. Of the 10 warmest years on record, former record-holders 2015 and 2016 have dropped to eighth and fourth place, respectively. While 2016 was the first year to exceed the 1.0 degrees C threshold, that benchmark has since been surpassed in 2020 and again in the last three consecutive years (2023-25)."

Another benchmark the NCEI noted was oceanic heat content. In 2025 it was the highest on record, breaking the record set the year before. In fact, 2025 was the fifth year in a row in which oceanic heat content hit record highs.

This is important, since more than 90 percent of excess heat in the Earth's system is absorbed by the ocean. This extra heat content becomes fuel that would further bolster future global warming, and can create more intense storms than a cooler ocean would.  Hotter water also expands, which exacerbates sea level rise. 

NCEI also broke down the 2025 climate year in review into continents. 2025 was North America's fourth warmest year. Nine of the continent's ten warmest years have happened since 2006. The rate of warming in North America was 0.15 degrees Celsius per decade in much of the 20th century. Since 1981, that warming rate has more than doubled to 0.34 degrees Celsius per decade. 

Europe had its second warmest year on record. Asia was third warmest, South America was sixth warmest and Africa was seventh warmest.  The Arctic region had its second warmest year and Antarctica had it fourth warmest year in 2025.

Sources other than NCEI helped give a fuller picture of the extraordinary global warmth of 2025. Per Yale Climate Connections:

"According to Berkeley Earth, 9.1 percent of the Earth's surface had a record-warm year, including 10.6 percent of land areas and 8.3 percent of ocean areas. They estimated that 770 million people - 8.5 percent of Earth's population - experienced a locally warm annual average in 2025, The largest population centers affected by record warmth in 2025 were mostly in Asia, including about 450 million people in China."

Carbon Brief added these stats to the 2025 mix: 

Sea levels reached record highs in 2025, and sea level rise has accelerated noticeably in the past three decades. 

Cumulative ice loss from the world's glaciers and from the Greenland ice sheet reached a new record high in 2025, contributing to sea level rise. 

Concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide all reached record high levels in 2025.

Arctic sea ice saw its lowest winter peak on record and its 10th lowest summer minimum extent. Sea ice around Antarctica  reached its third lowest summer minimum extent. 

PREDICTIONS

The New Year has barely begun but experts are saying 2026 will bring us no relief from the recent climate changed-heat. 

Carbon Brief is saying 2026 will be the second, third or fourth warmest on record, very similar to the temperatures we saw in 2023 and 2025. 

Lingering La Nina might suppress temperatures a little in the opening months of the year, but an expected El Nino later in the year might bring 2026 to a hot finish, says the folks at Carbon Brief.

The Met Office in the UK is also saying 2026 will be among the top four warmest on record, and they're leaning toward this year being the second warmest year, coming in a bit cooler than the record holder 2024.

Berkeley Earth says the odds favor 2026 coming in at #4 on hottest year list, giving it a 51 percent chance of that happening. The odds that 2026 would come in 3rd place is 12 percent,; 2nd place 21 percent.  They give 2026 a 10 percent chance that this year will be the hottest on record. The chances that this year will be merely the fifth warmest or cooler are just 6 percent, according to Berkeley Earth. 

If you look at a chart of how each year's temperature compares to other years, you see that the world began warming rapidly at around 1980. 

But the past three years have been way, way hotter than anything seen before. Nations and regulators,  especially in Asia and in the world shipping industry have cut aerosol pollutants in recent years. These new environmental rules have allowed more sun to heat the Earth, since air pollution is blocking less of it. 

That could at least partly explain why the past three years have been so out whack with the heat. The question now is, will this much faster pace of warming that started in 2023 continue or will it level off a bit? Nobody knows for sure, but the question is important.

It's bad enough that the world has been warming so fast since the 1980s. If we've entered a new, faster pace of climate change, we're definitely not ready for it.  

Editor's Note: We'll soon do a followup post on how the United States did with climate in 2025, including an extraordinarily hot December in the western United States

Trump Cuts Tsunami Warning System, Leaving Entire West Coast Vulnerable

The Trump administration is cutting back
warning systems for tsunamis on the West Coast

 Trump administration cutbacks are endangering millions of residents along the West Coast who are prone to tsunamis.

Per NBC News:

"Nine seismic stations in Alaska are set to go dark this month, leaving tsunami forecasters without important data used to determine whether an earthquake will send a destructive wave barreling toward the West Coast."

A federal grant that funded the nine stations lapses last year, and the Trump administration has decided not to renew it. The loss of those stations means determining the magnitude and shape of earthquakes will be delayed. 

Quickly figuring out such data is crucial for timely warnings on whether an earthquake will generate a tsunami, and if so, how big the waves will be, and where and when they are most likely to hit. 

The cynical, paranoid part of my mind guesses Trump figures the West Coast states are all blue, and maybe he figures all those Democrats deserve to be wiped out by a tsunami. 

Earthquakes are common along and south of the Alaskan coast. Depending on the type of quake, tsunamis can spread destruction thousands of miles away. A huge 1964 earthquake centered near Anchorage, Alaska, sent a tsunami into the U.S. West Coast. 

That 1964 tsunami killed 12 people, most of them in Crescent City, California, but one death was recorded as far south as Los Angeles. The tsunami caused $17 million in damage.

This is the latest blow to the United States tsunami warning system, NBC News reports. 

The U.S. has two tsunami warning centers, one in Palmer, Alaska and another in Honolulu. They're operated under the umbrella of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The tsunami centers have been victimized by steep cutbacks and staff shortages under the Trump administration, much like the National Weather Service, which is also under the umbrella of NOAA.

Says NBC:

"Of the 20 full-time positions at the center in Alaska, only 11 are currently filled, according to Tom Fahy, the union legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization. In Hawaii, four of the 16 roles are open." 

Reports are NOAA is trying to hire more employees for those centers. We'll see. 

But the Trump people have  already ditched top talent. NOAA in February laid off Corina Allen, the National Weather Service's tsunami program manager. She's since gotten a job with the Washington State Department of Natural Resources. 

Allen is working to protect the state of Washington and prepare its residents for future tsunamis. If she can't do it for the nation, at least she can do it for Washington State.

The Trump crew, specifically the Trump minion mucky mucks at NOAA, has reduced funding for the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, which pays for most of states' tsunami risk reduction work. 

Usually the mitigation program gets $6 million a year to operate. This year, it's down to $4 million, NBC News reports. 

Trumpers are also getting rid of ways to warn Alaskans of tsunamis and other deadly hazards. Congress, at Trump's behest, rescinded funding for Public Radio and PBS stations. In much of rural Alaska public radio and public television stations are pretty much the only way for people to receive emergency warnings. 

Time is of the essence with these emergency warnings. When an offshore earthquake threatened parts of Alaska with a tsunami this summer before the cuts, residents heard alerts on public radio and had begun evacuating even before the Alaska Emergency Management Agency contacted officials on the at risk islands.

In this summer's case, the tsunami wasn't particularly big and caused little damage. But people from the Aleutian Islands of Alaska to San Diego, California might not be so lucky next time. 

Thanks to the shortsightedness, to put it politely, that permeates the Trump administration.  

World Had 3rd Warmest September Amid String Of Global Heat Waves

Graphic from Berkeley Earth showing most of the 
world was once again much warmer than normal
in September, the 3rd hottest on record. No
data from NOAA due to government shutdown. 

 Every month, I highlight a report from NOAA that takes a snapshot at the global climate for the previous month. 

During October, I didn't give the September report because it didn't exist. At least not from NOAA.

The federal government shutdown meant nobody at NOAA compiled the data or wrote a report.

After awhile, remembered that other groups also put monthly reports together. One of them is Berkeley Earth, an organization that provides open source environmental and climate data.

Berkeley Earth concluded that the world's September was the third warmest on record. Only 2023 and 2024 were hotter. It's worth noting that September, 2025 was much, much warmer than any other September prior to 2023. The three most recent years have been in a league of their own. 

The trend line for this entire year makes it appear 2025 will easily end up as the third warmest year on record, behind 20342 unless the end of the year is incredibly cold.  Preliminary data indicates October was probably globally much warmer than the long term average. 

In September, 2025, the highest temperature relative to their local averages were in almost all of North America, northeast Asia, the Arctic Ocean, North Pacific Ocean and around much of Antarctica. 

As always in our climate change world, it was hard to find any cool spots. But also as usual, a patch of the North Atlantic was relatively cool.

Berkeley Earth says their data is pretty accurate, but not quite as accurate as they'd like.  The problem is  some missing data from NOAA.

I'm not sure what happened with that NOAA data, but my guess is it all goes back to NOAA's brass and the Trump administration. Cutbacks. Blocking any information that risks highlighting climate change. Incompetence at the top, but not among the rank and file scientists just trying to do their jobs despite the interference of political hacks above them.

Since late August. some of NOAA's climate archives are broken or incomplete. Berkeley Earth draws from many data services, so NOAA's Trump-induced shortcomings. 

For some reason, "(In) NOAA's flagship climate monitoring program, the defects are strongly clustered with NOAA failing to report nearly all observations from China, Kazakhstan, the Philippines, Spain and certain other areas. 

These weather stations continue to be operated by their local meteorological agencies, but their observations have not been capture day NOAA aggression services."

Berkeley Earth said they hoped that NOAA or somebody else will incorporate the data, reducing the uncertainty in that data.  

OTHER MEASUREMENTS

Other organizations measure Earth's temperature on a monthly basis and came to the same conclusion as Berkeley Earth. 

The European Copernicus Climate Change Service also concluded September was the third hottest on record. 

Copernicus also gives us data for Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. The ice data is particularly  important because the Arctic always reaches its minimum ice extent in September, and Antarctica reaches its maximum.

Arctic sea ice had its 13th lowest minimum in the past Antarctic ice had its 3rd lowest maximum on record .

Not the worst news ever in the land of ice, but certainly not great, either. 

Sharpiegate Comes Back, Like The Monster That Won't Die

"Sharpiegate" started six years ago over Donald
Trump's failed attempt at forecasting Hurricane
Dorian. It's still going on today with the firing
of two NOAA officials, in part because
 Trump. Just. Can't. Let. It. Go.

 Sharpiegate is back in the news, in a typically depressing way. 

Back in late July, two NOAA scientists who defied Trump in the name of accuracy and science in his first administration are being sacked.  It looks like because Trump has a long memory, at least in terms of loyalty.  

"Two top National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials who played a role in the high profile "Sharpiegate" investigation at the agency were placed on administration leave this week. 

Stephen Volz, the assistant administrator at NOAA's Satellite and Information Service, and Jeff Dillon, a deputy general counsel at NOAA, were placed on leave..."   Volz told NBC News."

You might remember Sharpiegate. Back in 2019 Trump incorrectly said Hurricane Dorian was threatening Alabama, but National Weather Service meteorologists in Alabama contradicted him, accurately saying the storm was no threat to Alabama. 

A normal president who might have been misinformed like that would say, "Oops, we have updated info that says Alabama doesn't have to worry, so we'll move on."

But this is Trump of course, who can never be wrong about the slightest thing. He  later produced a forecast map that had been amateurishly altered by a Sharpie to suggest Alabama had been threatened by the storm.   To make everything worse, top NOAA officials, appointed by Trump in his first administration, rebuked those professional and accurate Alabama meteorologists.  

Which of course looks like political pressure and not science to me and pretty much everybody else 

 Here's why we think Volz and Dillon are in trouble now.  Neil Jacobs was nominated by Trump as his pick to head NOAA. Jacobs got in trouble with Sharpiegate. Per NBC: 

"NOAA hired the National Academy of Public Administration to perform an independent assessment into allegations of scientific misconduct during the incident. The investigation found that Jacobs violated NOAA's ethics policies. 

Volz wrote the final decision about the report for NOAA, which agreed with NAPA's findings. He said Dillen worked on that document also. Volz said he did not know whether notices that they'd both been put on leave on the same day and their connection to the 'Sharpiegate' report were a coincidence."

CNN talked to former NOAA officials who smell a rat. One said: "It's an interesting coincidence that less than a week before Neil Jacobs sent committee vote, the two dedicated career civil servants who investigated him for scientific integrity violations around Sharpiegate were dismissed from service."

 NOAA confirmed the pair had been placed on leave, but are tightlipped on why. Dillen is out due to unspecified "performance issues." Volz is out for an "unrelated matter."

 They're not even telling Volz why he's out. 

 It's all for plausible deniability. It looks bad to admit they're getting rid of Volz and Dillon to soothe Trump's narcissistic ego. So they're denying it has anything to do with Sharpiegate. 

NOAA's communications director, Kim Foster, had this to say: "Neither action is related in any way to each other or the Sharpiegate investigation."

Sure, Jan. 

As for Jacobs, the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee on July 30 advanced his nomination, but we don't know yet when the full Senate will vote on the nomination. 

 

Critical Hurricane Forecast Tool To Stay Active After All

Visible satellite view of Hurricane Milton, which
grew explosively in the Gulf of Mexico last year.
At the last minute, the U.S. Defense Department
reversed a decision that would have crippled
nighttime monitoring of developing hurricanes. 

In a rare, wise move from the U.S. Defense Department. they've reversed a recent decision to end satellite monitoring that is crucial to forecasting hurricanes and other dangerous weather. 

That move in June to end the microwave satellite monitoring technology created outcry among meteorologists because they said ending the monitoring would hamstring hurricane forecasting, just as the tropical storm season was getting under way.

Apparently, the pressure from hurricane forecasters and others worked. 

Per the Washington Post:

"....officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Tuesday that they now expect 'no interruption' in the data their meteorologists received through what is known as the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, which includes microwave-based observations that reveal storm activity even through the cover of darkness."

The Defense Department was vague about the reasons behind the original decision to shut down the satellite monitoring, hinting at security concerns or a need to replace equipment. 

WaPo continues: 

 "'But after feedback from government partners, officials found a way to meeting modernization goals while keeping the data flowing until the sensor fails or the program formally ends in September, 2026,' a Navy spokesperson said in an email."

The reference to September, 2026 stems from the U.S. Space Force plans to replacing existing satellites with new ones. The first began operating in April but doesn't appear ready yet to do the microwave based observations, at least for storm forecasting. Another satellite should begin running in 2027.

Meteorologists were relieved at the late breaking news. 

 "Some good news for a change! We will keep a critical source of microwave satellite data going for at least another year, or until the satellites, which are already operating 15 year past their expected lifetime, fail," said Dr. Jeff Masters on Bluesky.

There's plenty of satellite data out there to monitor hurricanes during the day. A visual assessment of the clouds swirling around a growing hurricane can offer some of the clues as to whether the storm is strengthening and by how much and where the danger is heading.

The microwave data that almost went away is crucial to head off what hurricane forecasters call "sunrise surprises."

Under the cover of darkness, hurricanes sometimes explosively strengthen, catching people off guard who were expecting a relatively weak hurricane and instead facing a monster, Climate change seems to have increased the frequency of these exploding hurricanes. 

The microwave data allows meteorologists to catch these strengthening trends early, allowing them to quickly adjust forecasts and warn people in nearby coastal areas. 

"The last-minute move averts a crisis for forecasters who rely on the data to predict dangerous and potentially deadly episodes of rapid intensification and their computer models that use data from these microwave imagers to predict the movement and intensity of hurricanes," Michael Lowry, a former National Hurricane Center scientist, wrote on Substack. 

 We are just getting into the heart of hurricane season.  While no hurricane threats are looming now, it's inevitable that we'll need to carefully watch the Atlantic for these dangerous storms late this month and on into September and October.  

World Had Third Hottest June As Climate Change Rolls On

The world was hot again. June, 2025 was the third
hottest on record. Only 2023 and 2024 were warmer, 

Predictably,  June turned out to be the world's third warmest on record, says the National Centers for Environmental Information. 

In a logical world, this shouldn't be happening. Month after month has scored in the top three list of hottest global months, with only a handful of exceptions. 

Climate change rolls on. Thus, this post will seem a bit familiar to past monthly summaries. But remember, essentially, the more things stay the same, the worse they get for Planet Earth. 

After month after month of all time record warmth in 2023 and 2024, we've settled  back into a pattern where most months are the second or third hottest on record.   

I suppose we should be a tiny bit happy, because if you look super closely, there were some minor hints of a temporary cooling trend in June.  Even if those hints are just clutching at straws, 

 June, 2025 was the first month since May, 2023 where the global temperature was a it less 1.0 degrees  Celsius (1.8 Fahrenheit) warmer than the 20th century average. 

The temperature anomaly for land ares as the smallest since December, 2022, which isn't really a long time in the grand scheme of things 

 However, oceans were still running super hot, which skewed Earth's overall temperature

Even though June was "cool" compared to 2023 and 2024 it was still solidly hot. All ten of the warmest Junes have occurred since 2016 and last moth was the 49th June in a row with above average global temperatures. 

As usual, cool spots - areas that were as cold or a little cooler than the long term average, were few and far between. Those "cool" spots included a small spot in the North Atlantic and a couple little comers of Greenland, India, parts of northern Africa, central Antarctica. 

The hottest spots, relative to average, were in northern and eastern North America, parts of western Europe, sections of eastern Asia and the western Pacific ocean.

Many areas had some intense heat waves during the second half of the month.

On June 28, El Granado Spain reached  114.8 degrees  the hottest temperature on record for  the entire nation of Spain was registered. (The old record was 113.4 degrees in Seville, back in 1965).

From June 19 through the end of month, daily highs in much of France were 95 degrees or better, with several cities setting records for the number of days getting that warm in a single month. 

Seven weather stations around the world with a period of record at least 40 years set new all time record high temperatures. Five were in Russia. The other two were Yongde, China (91 degrees) and Lebanon, New Hampshire (100 degrees). 

Sea ice is also important to look at every month. The more Arctic and Antarctica ice you have, the more that white ice reflects the sun's heat into space, which could help blunt climate change a tiny bit. However, Arctic sea ice was the second lowest of any year since they started keeping track 47 years ago. Antarctic sea ice was the third lowest.

UNITED STATES

The  United States had its seventh hottest 
June on record. Some states in the Northeast
including Vermont, had their hottest June
temperature on record on June 24

June turned out to be the seventh warmest on record for the Lower 48. It's part of a trend, which isn't surprising in the age of climate change. Six of the nation's seven hottest Junes have all occurred since 2015, notes Yale Climate Connections. 

The hottest temperatures in the U.S. relative to average were on the West Coast and the the Mid-Atlantic States and interior Northeast.  Seventeen states had one of their top ten warmest Junes on record. 

Continuing a climate change trend, nights were generally warmer relative to average than daytimes. Connecticut and Rhode Island both had their warmest June average daily minimum temperature on record, and seven other states scored in the top three in that category.

The June warmth in the eastern U.S was skewed by an extreme heat wave on June 23-25, which was especially notable since the biggest heat waves usually don't hit until you're into July and August. 

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts and Vermont broke their statewide records for hottest temperature on record for the entire month of June. Maryland and New Hampshire tied their monthly records. 

June in the U.S. was on the wet side, given how it was the start of our Summer of Floods. The Plains, Midwest, western Appalachians, most of the South and much of the southwestern U.S. was wetter than average.  

The West Coast was definitely dry. Florida and most of New England were also sort of on the dry side, but not to an extreme level.  

Hurricane Forecasts To Suffer Due To Trump Defense Department Change, Could Endanger Lives

Satellite view of Hurricane Beryl last July.
The Defense Department is taking away
crucial satellite data that would reduce
the accuracy of what until now has
been excellent hurricane forecasting, 

 The U.S. Department of Defense has inexplicably announced it would end providing some  satellite weather data, leaving meteorologists without crucial information about hurricanes that will loom over the Atlantic Ocean and potentially threaten land. 

This could lead to inaccurate forecasts, or less lead time to warn coastal residents threatened by hurricanes. 

Per NPR:

"For more than 40 years, the Defense Department has operated satellites that collect information about conditions in the atmosphere and ocean.

 A group within the Navy, called the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, processes the raw data from the satellites, and turns it over to scientists and weather forecasters who use it for a wide range of purposes, including real-tine hurricane forecasting and measuring sea ice in polar regions."

The Department of Defense out of the blue announced last week that they would stop providing that data as of June 30.  After an outcry, they graciously offered to continue to provide the data through the end of July. 

This data is critical for hurricane forecasting, so waiting to end the program at the end of July doesn't help much. That's because hurricane season peaks in August and September. The most frequent, and most ferocious hurricanes tend to occur in those two months. 

This whole mess has left people speculating why the data will stop being available. Again, per NPR:

"'It's not an issue of funding cuts,' says Mark Serreze, the director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, a federally funded research center in Colorado that has lied on the soon-to-be-terminated Defense Department data to track sea ice since 1979. 'There are cybersecurity concerns. That's what we're being told.'"

I'm suspicious, as I usually am with anything involving the Trump administration. 

Information from the Snow and Ice Data Center shows that climate change is reducing the amount of sea ice in the Arctic. The Trump administration is hostile to the facts of climate change.  Perhaps they're trying to block data that contradicts their decidedly non-scientific view. 

NIGHTTIME MONITORING 

The data we'll lose is through using Defense Department satellites to observe storms like hurricanes at night. Visible satellite data is useful during the day. Much less so at night. 

As the Washington Post explains:

"....by observing microwave radiation that emanates from Earth's surface - and the ways it interacts with water - scientists can detect where and how intensely water is distributed. It lets them see where clouds are what the structure of a storm - such as its eyewall and wind patterns - look like."

After losing the Defense Department microwave monitoring, we'll still have some microwave monitoring from a satellite mission jointly operated by the United States and Japan. But those atmospheric scans are infrequent, so we won't have enough real time night data on rapidly evolving hurricanes.

The result will be what is known as "sunrise surprises."  Back before microwave data was available, meteorologists would discover at dawn that a hurricane has abruptly changed strength and direction overnight. In short, these scientists would discover that a hurricane isn't in the spot where it's "supposed" to be, and perhaps it has grown from a nothing burger to a monster. 

That means the public won't have as much lead time to get ready if a hurricane suddenly decides to strengthen and take aim at a coastal city instead of harmlessly curving out to sea as forecasters might have presumed the evening before. 

HURRICANE SURPRISES

This is particularly dangerous if the unexpected shift happens when the hurricane pulls its overnight shenanigans near the coastline. 

Destruction from the Great Long Island/New England
hurricane of 1938, which took the region by surprise.
We don't want to go back to the days when
hurricanes surprised us. 

This whole Defense Department move will be a throwback to the old days when hurricanes took us by surprise. A classic example goes way back to 1938.  

Back in those days, weather forecasting was not nearly as sophisticated as it is today. In September, 1938, meteorologists were aware of a strong hurricane off the southeast U..S. coast. They believed it would head northeast, and remain far enough offshore to not cause harm.

Instead, the 1938 hurricane slammed into Long Island and New England, leaving a trail of devastation that killed at least 690 people and caused $400 million in 1938 dollar damage. (That would be more than $9 billion in 2025 dollars).  

Granted, we have other tools nowadays besides nighttime microwave monitoring that would  help prevent such a tragedy. But still, do we really want to risk surprise hurricanes like this?

These days, climate change is making hurricane monitoring more important than ever, as a warmer atmosphere is altering the behavior of these storms. 

 Per Washington Post:

"Many scientists have said the microwave data is more valuable than ever as more hurricanes are undergoing rapid intensification, in which they transform from tropical storms or low-end hurricanes into major Category 4 or 5 storms within a matter of hours - often just before making landfall."

I guess the Trump administration figures that looming dangerous weather is also none of our business. 

As I noted as recently as Monday, the Trump crew has cut back on NOAA and the National Weather Service so much that forecast offices are severely short staffed, and needed data to make accurate weather forecasts has become increasingly spotty as a result.  Hurricane hunter flights might well be reduced as well due to cutbacks, taking away even more crucial storm data. 

WHAT THE ADMINISTRATION SAYS

The Navy did not return media inquiries regarding this issue.  The Trump administration never explains what they're doing anyway.  Apparently, it's none of our business what our supposed government does. 

WaPo says that NOAA spokeswoman Kim Duster dismissed the microwave data as "a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools" that include satellite data (which doesn't work as well at night) and ground based weather stations and buoys (which are very sparse out in the regions where hurricanes develop) and weather balloon data (which are launched less frequently now due to DOGE cutbacks at NOAA).

The hurricane season has just begun.  So far, we've had two, brief, weak tropical storms that were either harmless (Andrea out in the middle of the Atlantic a little over a week ago) and Barry, which caused minor flooding in northeastern Mexico on Sunday).

Much stronger tropical storms and hurricanes are inevitable as we head through the rest of the summer and into the autumn. 

During last year's busy hurricane season, I was stunned by how accurate the forecasts were for those powerful storms, and how well warned people in the hurricane paths were. Even so, these hurricanes  managed to kill scores of people and cause billions of dollars in damage.

Now imagine a scenario where the warnings give little lead time and are not as accurate as they've been in recent years. That's what we might well be faced with in the coming months.  

I'm Wondering If Weather Forecast Accuracy Is Already Declining Due To Trump Cutbacks, Decisions

Sunday afternoon was supposed to be at least partly
sunny in Vermont.  But it wasn't. This is the sky
over St. Albans, Vermont at around 4:30 p.m.
Sunday. National Weather Service meteorologists
remain excellent, but are their forecasts
suffering from degraded data due to 
Trump NOAA cutbacks? I'm wondering. 

 I'm beginning to suspect that weather forecasts are getting less accurate.

Thank you, Trump administration. 

I don't have any empirical data to back up this suspicion At least not yet. But my radar is buzzing on this one.  

Locally here in Vermont, there's been some forecast misses lately.  Sunday was a classic example. After some morning clouds, it was supposed to clear up into a mostly sunny day, with temperatures up near 80.

It didn't happen. For the most part, it stayed cloudy all day.  And the clouds kept temperatures lower than expected. 

Saturday's forecast was kind of wonky too, with less rain than expected across central and parts of southern Vermont. 

Forecast misses happen, they always have. The atmosphere is so complicated, you'd expect that some things are going on up there that we just don't get. We get surprises. 

More importantly, I'm not at all disparaging the excellent meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.  Or anywhere. They're serving the public as awesomely as they always did.

I have to wonder, though, if the Trump administration cutbacks at NOAa and the National Weather Service are starting to have effects. 

Before Trump, as Mother Jones explains:

"......NOAA has built one of the most robust weather monitoring systems in the world, collecting 6.3 billion observations per day. The NWS then plugs the data from these instruments into computer models to predict the next torrential downpour, cold snap, heat wave or thunderstorm."

That was then, this is now. 

NOAA still  has a robust data collection system, but it's not as robust as it once was. Staffing is thin, thanks to pre-existing vacancies and especially the hundreds of layoffs under DOGE, that slash and burn of federal agencies that Elon Musk headed up earlier this year. 

There's fewer weather balloon launches, which give critical information as to the nuances of what's going on in the atmosphere. Other programs are cut back as well. 

 These cutbacks leave us with garbage in, garbage out. If the quality of the data is not quite up to snuff, then there might be missing pieces of the weather picture, so the forecast could be off.

A huge share of the raw data meteorologists need in the United States comes from NOAA/National Weather Service. Your friendly TV meteorologist uses that data for her forecast.  I'm not a meteorologist, but I know my way around the National Weather Service and can find information. That's what I use to try to give you a picture of what's going on. 

My musings here are just a theory. So far.  Like I mentioned, I have not yet seen any rigorous analyses of weather forecasts have degraded.

This past weekend might have been just the usual rough patch that happens from time to time. 

It's also not as if all forecasts will be wildly wrong. Most will still be spot on.  Even the ones that are off, like Sunday's clouds and Saturday's weird rainfall distribution in Vermont, were still partly on track. 

For instance, the National Weather Service had told us in advance Sunday morning would be rather cloudy. It's just the clearing skies hit a few hours later than forecast. It got clear in the evening, not the afternoon. 

The Saturday forecast was correct in that heavier rain went through Vermont and lighter amount fell south. It was just the light south amounts were by and large really light. 

An expected sunny Sunday that turns rather cloudy is at worst just a minor bummer.

However, I worry that far more dangerous brewing weather will get missed. True, the National Weather Service does its best to go all hands on deck when things look threatening. But the lack of data, the shortage of meteorologists increase the chances that critical clues in a developing weather disaster could easily get overlooked.

Which would cost lives.

These fears about worse forecasts are nothing new. We talked about this as soon as the cutbacks started this past winter. .    Now those cutbacks are here, and I believe we're starting to see the effects.

Maybe it already happened. It's been a very busy tornado year in the United States. A few tornadoes either went unwarned or warnings went out long after the twister touched down. This has always happened from time to time.  Sometimes, tornadoes managed to "hide" from the best radar images and from the most experienced meteorologists.

Did unwarned tornadoes and severe storms happen more frequently this spring and early summer?  have no idea, but it's worth looking into. 

If it turns out that weather forecasts are indeed getting inaccurate, and if it leads to unnecessary deaths, the blood is on the hands of those in the Trump administration.

Not that any of them really care. 

Florida Meteorologist/Hurricane Expert Now Fears Storm Prediction Accuracy Gone With NOAA Cuts

Florida meteorologists John Morales, one of the nation's
top hurricane forecasters, worried on air that NOAA
cutbacks would mean critical hurricane forecasts 
would be less accurate this year, which in turn
would endanger lives

In the first couple of days of September, 2019, Category 5 Hurricane Dorian crawled through the Bahamas, causing extreme damage. 

Dorian seemed headed straight for Florida, and residents there began to panic. 

Florida meteorologist John Morales, and one of the nation's top hurricane experts, told his audience to relax. 

Morales reassured viewers that Dorian would make a sharp right turn just before reaching Florida, sparing the state from great harm. 

For non-meteorologists, a hurricane making such a sharp, sudden turn didn't sound plausible. But Morales was confident. 

And he was right. That sharp turn came on the afternoon of September 3, and Florida was more or less safe.

I'm bringing this up now because Morales was on the air as usual recently at NBC 6 in South Florida, one day earlier this month. This time, he his audience he no longer has the confidence that he could forecast a hurricane so precisely and so correctly like he did with Dorian

Morales' skill set is as good as ever. NOAA, which is responsible for providing the data for meteorologists like Morales, is not as good as ever. 

".... I am here to tell you that I am not sure that I can do that this year because of the cuts, the gutting, the sledgehammer attack on science in general," Morales said on a June 9 broadcast on NBC 6 South Florida. 

The massive cuts the Trump administration has made to NOAA has led to staffing shortages at National Weather Service offices across the nation, including those in central and southern Florida. Fewer weather balloons are being launched to study the details of what the atmosphere is doing and how that atmosphere will steer storms, and how the strength of those storms change. 

Because of these developments, less data is being collected, "What we're starting to see is that the quality of the forecast is becoming degraded," Morales said. 

There's also a chance that we'll have fewer hurricane hunter flights into hurricanes. Those flights collect detailed data that really help forecasters pin down exactly where a hurricane will come ashore and how strong it will be once it gets there. 

"We may be flying blind, and we may not know exactly how strong a hurricane is before it reaches the coastline," Morales said.

He concluded by telling viewers to call their representatives and tell them these cost must be stopped.

TRUMP'S PEOPLE RESPOND, WHILE MUSK FADES

Unfortunately, I keep getting less and less trustful about the truthfulness of anything a federal spokesperson says under the Trump regime, but here goes:

People magazine, reaching out to NOAA, said a spokesperson said the National Hurricane Center "has a sufficient number of forecasters to fill mission-critical operational shifts during the 2025 hurricane season."  The spokesperson said the hurricane center "remains dedicated" to providing timely weather forecasts and warnings."

We'll see about that. 

Public pressure to provide enough staff to allow NOAA/National Weather Service to perform its mission to protect the public might actually be having a little bit of positive effect on the Trump administration.

Especially with Elon Musk pretty much out of the picture for now. 

Musk was exceptionally keen on getting rid of practically everyone working for the federal government including those in NOAA, To his mind, the only person that needs to be protected from scary weather is himself.  Screw everyone else. He is, after the all, the ultimate Main Character Syndrome poster boy.

Now, Musk's bromance with Donald Trump seems to be over.  (Bill Maher, in the spirt of "Brajalina" or "Bennifer"  called the Musk/Trump bromance "Elump" which is kinda fun).

With Musk out of the way for now and public pressure growing to keep the Nation Weather Service functioning,   there is a tiny bit of appetite for hiring back some of the lost staff at NOAA,  Not enough to solve its problems, but maybe ease them a tiny bit. 

IMPROVING NOAA STAFFING

NOAA says they will reshuffle staff to areas where staff shortages are especially acute. Basically encouraging remaining staff to move to offices that are really short on workers, Which doesn't really solve the overall problem of not enough resources, but I suppose it's a tiny start.

Even better news came a little over a week ago, which is a nice symptom of Musk's departure:  

The National Weather Service lost more than 560 employees to layoff and early retirement incentives., Now, the NWS has managed to get permission to hire about 125 new meteorologists, technicians and specialists for forecast offices around the nation, CNN reported.

This might help with National Weather Service offices that can't be staffed overnight during periods of non-threatening weather. Or even better, keep enough staff to meteorologists can adequately keep their eyes on the ball when there is dangerous weather. 

The new hires still won't be enough to overcome the effects of the bigger staff losses. I, like Morales, am not comfortable with the lack of NOAA staffing, even if those 125 replacement people come on board. I still think weather forecast quality and accuracy is degraded, despite the heroic efforts of remaining meteorologists with NWS. 

SENSIBLE LEGISLATION

I was intrigued with a bill recently introduced by U.S. Senators Jerry Moran, (R-Kansas) and Gary Peters (D-Michigan) that would exempt National Weather Service employees from any executive order or memorandum imposing a hiring freeze,

It would essentially designate NWS employees as public safety officials, sort of like FBI agents or Border Patrol officers. 

Makes sense, since National Weather Service meteorologists' main job is public safety, right?  I also find it interesting that this is a bipartisan bill coming out in these bifurcated times. 

I have no idea whether this bill will go anywhere, but it's another sign the Trump administration is out of step with the majority of Americans who agree with Morales and want to continue receiving the best possible information when deadly storms threaten. 

I imagine the Trump administration isn't a fan of this good idea for Moran and Peters, so we'll see.

Still, under the increasingly autocratic Trump, it's getting riskier to criticize the prez and/or his  administration. Especially if you're a widely watched public figure like Morales. The Trump people have a habit of unleashing their MAGA goons on them by launching social media attacks, doxxing them, even threatening them with arrest. 

Or trying to demand the corporations that employ these outspoken truth tellers "or else."

After the broadcast, The Guardian asked Morales if "he was worried about retaliation from an administration that's south to defund and disparage scientists. Morales said 'No,  not at all. Science is science."

 

NOAA Says Hurricane Season Is Going To Be Busy Again

Powerful Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico
last October on its way to devastating parts of
Florida. Forecasts predict another busy hurricane 
seasons in 2025. The season start June 1

Chances are we will have another busy Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA announced Friday with their annual spring hurricane forecast.

The NOAA forecast is for 13 to 19 named storms; six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes during this season, which officially begins June 1. 

Major hurricanes have sustained winds of at least 111 mph.  

The average season has 14 named storms, seven of which develop into hurricanes.

NOAA's forecast is actually a game of chances. They give a 60 percent chance that this season will be busier than normal, a 30 percent chance that it will be close to average and a 10 percent chance it will be on the light side. 

At least in recent years, "normal" hasn't really happened, Every Atlantic hurricane season has produced more storms that average, a standard based on data from 1990 to 2020, reports CBS News. Four of those season only produced two or three major hurricanes, which is at or slightly below normal for the particularly strong storms. 

REASONS WHY

 Several factors went into 2025's forecast for above normal activity.

Neither El Nino or La Nina is going on in the Pacific. These two phenomenon affect ocean temperatures off the west coast of South America and have worldwide effect on the weather. 

An El Nino tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes because it creates stronger upper level winds over the areas of the Atlantic where hurricanes develop. Those strong upper level winds tear apart the thunderstorms that are essentially baby hurricanes, preventing them from developing. 

The neutral conditions in the Pacific mean those strong upper level winds in the Atlantic are less likely in the late summer and fall, so tropical storms would have a better chance of developing.

There's warmer than average water in most of the areas where hurricanes tend to develop. Warmer water is jet fuel for hurricanes, helping them develop and get stronger. Though this year the water isn't quite as hot as it was in 2024, which proved to be a hyperactive hurricane season despite an odd lull in activity during August.

That might mean 2025 might be busier than usual, but not insane.

Finally, monsoon activity in West Africa is forecast to be above normal.. Disturbances coming off west coast of Africa emerge into the Atlantic and sometime develop into hurricanes. The more of these disturbances that head into the Atlantic, the greater the chance that some of them will develop into hurricanes.

OTHER FORECAST

The closely-watched Colorado State University hurricanes season forecast also call for an above normal 2025.

Their forecast, issued April 3. predicts 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The University will offer an updated seasonal hurricane forecast on June 11

Ominously, Colorado State says there's an above normal chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline in 2025.

We're already had an unusually high number of major, destructive hurricanes hitting the United States in recent years.

They include hurricanes that cost $1 billion or more like Harvey (Texas) and Irma (Florida) in 2017;  Michael (Florida), 2018 Laura and Zeta (Louisiana) in 2020; Ida (Louisiana) 2021; Ian (Florida), 2022; Idalia (Florida, 2023) and Helene and Milton, (both Florida), 2024.

As you can see, Florida in particular has been especially punished in recent years. So the prospect of more major hurricanes hitting that state has to strike a nerve, 

Forecasting where hurricanes will go before the season starts is exceedingly difficult. Meteorologists can detect patterns that could tell where these storms are a little more likely to go, but all kinds of factors can make that happen, or make that not happen. 

Though hurricane season starts June 1, the storms are usually relatively infrequent until August hits. (In some years, tropical storms can form before June 1) In the short term, no tropical storm developing is in the forecast for at least the next seven days.  

Conspiracy Whackos Strike Again: Anti-Government Groups Says Doppler Radar Is "Weather Weapon"

A Doppler radar installation, probably monitoring that
severe thunderstorm in the background. These radars
are crucial for monitoring severe weather, but
a conspiracy group wants to attack and destroy
Doppler radar because they are somehow
a "weather weapon."

Apparently, the wackos are going after Doppler radar now

As if NOAA and the National Weather Service didn't have enough problems with Trump cutbacks on staff and services that are harming both forecast accuracy and research, there's terrorists now, too. 

An anti-government group called Veterans on Patrol have somehow decided that Doppler radar is now somehow a "weather weapon."

Doppler radar installations are those big white balls on top of towers - there's one in Colchester, Vermont for reference - that track precipitation, winds and other features in the atmosphere. 

Doppler radar is fantastic for determining the type of precipitation that's falling in various locations. Also the intensity, which is super handy if you're worried about flooding. It also detects wind patterns, including dangerous ones that might, for example, indicate a tornado is about to form. 

The group has thus far not come up with an explanation as to how Doppler radar is a "weather weapon."  Veterans on Patrol said the Doppler sites are controlled by the military and are somehow "poisoning our skies."

Responding to media reports on the threats, Veterans on Patrol founder Michael "Lewis Arthur" Meyer said the group is moving forward with plans to target the radars

Per the Washington Post:

"'We intend to take as many NexRads offline as possible once our attack simulations have prepared us,' Meyer wrote. He said he had 'full authority' to do so. Meet said the 'attack simulations" would go until June but potentially i not August, without giving details about the operation."

Though there has been no attacks yet, and not much in the way of suspicious activity at the Doppler radar sites, officials are taking no chances.

"Out of a abundance of caution, we are asking all regions to notify their field offices and radar technicians to maintain increased vigilance when at or near radar sites," NOAA's central office warned leadership in a May 12 memo. 

National Weather Service staff were told to notify law enforcement of any suspicious or weird behavior.

The threats from Veterans on Patrol come at an already bad time for NOAA and the National Weather Service, as the agency has been battered by Trump administration layoffs, buyouts and steep cutbacks that are crippling its mission. 

Per CNN:

"'Nobody likes federal employees being demeaned by the administration, but when it escalates to violence or threats of it, it start to become really demoralizing,' said one NWS employee who requested anonymity because they are not authorized to speak to the press."

This would be an especially bad time for Doppler weather radars to fail, either through mechanical failure or sabotage. As CNN reports, the agency has more than 90 vacancies for the technicians who normally repair them. 

A Doppler radar that is offline can make meteorologists miss threatening weather like a developing tornado or flash flood. 

Veterans on Patrol is an extremist conspiracy theory group but up until now don't have a big reputation for violence. Like many other similar groups, this one offers itself up as a safe haven for people who are going through a rough time.

A classic example came in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina last fall. 

Veterans on Patrol serve up a spot in the town of Lake Lure, where they collected and distributed donated supplies, such as bottled water, food and clothing.

So far, so good. 

Then Veterans on Patrol began telling storm victims there the government somehow steered Helene into western North Carolina so they could take land and harvest minerals.  They also falsely said the Federal Emergency Management Agency was giving most aid to undocumented immigrants, terrorists and criminals. 

Enough people in Lake Lure saw through this scam to force Veterans on Patrol to leave.

Somehow, I think there's some other public relations move by this group to target Doppler radar.

Maybe they're stooges.  The Trump administration has been dismantling NOAA through repeated staff and resource cutbacks. 

The goal might be to degrade NOAA and the National Weather Service enough to "prove" that government agencies are inept, so weather forecasting should go to a private company, thereby enriching a couple billionaires somewhere. 

I obviously don't think Trump and Veterans for Patrol are working together.  Although come to think of it they are a match made in heaven.

After all, corrupt administrations worldwide rely on useful idiots - people and groups that have swallowed anti-government propaganda no matter how off the wall.

A subset of Trumpers are willing to believe almost anything. Including the idea that Doppler radars are somehow "weather weapons."

The whack jobs feed the energy of the Trump True Believers, which enables the Trumpsters to pretend they have a groundswell of support behind them.  

Trump and his minions don't need Veterans for Patrol, but I'm sure they consider them helpful.

To bad the rest of us are both appalled by this Doppler conspiracy and laughing our butts off at the purveyors of this nonsense.

Ominous Real World Effects Of NOAA/NWS Cutbacks Beginning To Show

Real effects of Trump administration cutbacks at 
NOAA are now starting to be felt, and it's going
to keep getting worse and worse. 

 At this point, I'd be willing to wager that the forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are now less accurate and less thorough then they were before Donald Trump took office. 

Between the firings, the slashing of funding, and the voluntary buyouts - another 300 National Weather Service employees were expected to take the latest buyout this past week - the NWS is already crippled. 

I fear the short staffing is already leading to missed forecasts during spells of dangerous weather. And this will only keep getting worse

Eight of the 122 NWS local offices across the nation will have seven or fewer meteorologists doing the work of 12 to 15 people, reports the Washington Post. 

Some of the worst staff shortages are in places where fast-developing and fast-evolving tornadoes, severe storms and flash floods are most common, especially this time of year. These offices include Kansas City, Louisville, Des Moines, Grand Rapids and Omaha. 

The Omaha National Weather Service just recently had to deal with an outbreak of tornadoes and exceptionally destructive hail storms. Those storms required careful monitoring of a complex set of severe storms and quick warnings to the public.  

The Omaha office still managed to do an excellent job of warning residents. However, a tornado that did not have a National Weather Service warning hit Storm Lake, Iowa, which is Omaha's coverage zone.  Sometimes developing tornadoes are missed by even the most conscientious meteorologist, but I still have to wonder if staffing shortages created the environment to miss signs the Storm Lake tornado was forming. 

Here's how things can get missed, as John Sokich, a recently retired director of congressional affairs for the NWS, explained to USA Today. 

Meteorologists are under particular stress during severe weather, when lives are at stake. '"'You're talking 12-hour shifts and you constantly have to be on point,' he said. 'It's physically draining to keep going like that and something will break. Working through high impact weather events for multiple days presents physical limitations is stressful and mentally draining.'

Even more draining when some of the tools you need to monitor the severe weather are no longer available.  

We've already reported on the reduction of weather balloon launches, which help forecasters understand the complexities in the atmosphere that can tell them when and where dangerous storms will hit. 

The Sacramento, California National Weather Service office will do almost all of its forecasting during days shifts, as the night will be minimally staffed unless severe weather is present. This change means that such things as fire weather watches and winter storm warnings will mostly only be issued during the day. 

If these warnings are not issued in a timely manner, that could give emergency managers left time to prepare for hazardous conditions. 

As I've previously reported, the research arm is taking the biggest hit, as the Trump administration thinks anything remotely related to climate change is off limits, because in Trump's addled mind, climate change doesn't exist.

The Pensacola News Journal sums up the effects of the NOAA research cuts just in Florida: 

"If the proposed budget cuts to NOAA are enacted as is, it would have wide-ranging impacts on climate research, significantly decrease the accuracy of hurricane forecasting, end climate monitoring for farmers reliant on the service and ultimately leave coastal communities, like the entire state of Florida, to fend for themselves during hurricane season."

On an even more macro level, the American Meteorological Association and National Weather Association, released a detailed, grim statement about the cutbacks. 

The statement said in part: 

"Without NOAA research, National Weather Service weather models and products will stagnate, observational data collection will be reduced, public outreach will decrease, undergraduate and graduate student support will drop, and NOAA funding for universities will plummet. 

In effect, the scientific backbone and workforce needed to keep weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings accurate and effective will be drastically undercut with unknown - and yet almost certainly disastrous - consequences for public safety and economic health."

This excellent joint statement between the AMA and NWA give us examples of how this all will affect you:

"Imagine what will  happen to tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings if we don't have a robust national weather radar network? What will happen to reservoir management when critical information on rainfall and runoff goes missing? What will happen when Hurricane Hunter aircraft are delayed or data from their instruments are not available to improve hurricane track and landfall forecasts?

NOAA research affects the lives of American taxpayers every day. It is vital to the work of the National Weather Service and the NOAA mission to predict the environment and share that information with businesses, communities, state and local government, and citizens."

 National Weather Service outreach to the public is being cutback too. The National Weather Service office in Sacramento said it would reduce overnight staffing, stop directly answering its publicly listed phone lines, post less often on social media and delay responses to media requests. 

That's fine I'm sure with the Trump administration, as transparence is anathema to them. 

The Trump administration is trying like hell to keep the effects of the cutbacks secret, as if it somehow won't become obvious to the public.

As evidence, here's a excerpt from the Washington Post:

"The Post spoke with 10 employees across the Weather Service and its parent agencies, NOAA and the Commerce Department, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Concerned with leaks to the media, the administration is installing monitoring software on NOAA employees' devices to track their communications, two current employees said."

 It seems the Trump administration has particular enmity toward the heroes in our American story. This administration is screwing over veterans, farmers, health care workers and aid organizations and National Weather Service meteorologists. 

And they are our heroes. 

On most days, the weather is routine and mundane, and we rely on these federal meteorologists just to let us know whether we should take an umbrella or our sunglasses to work with us tomorrow morning. 

Nice, but not critical.

But when the weather gets dangerous, these National Weather Service meteorologists save lives. I'd love to know how many over the years, but it's many, many thousands. How many people saved their own lives over the years because the fled to basements and storm shelters because the National Weather Service told them a tornado was coming?

How many of those people would have died had they not received the tornado warnings? Or not fled the coast because there was no hurricane warning saying you'd better get out or else?  . Or a flash flood was menacing their town?

I was eternally grateful to our meteorologists at the National Weather Service office here in South Burlington during our summer flood disasters in 2023 and 2024. 

The flood of 2023 killed two people in Vermont. The floods of 2024 did exactly the same. But how many people would have been killed or injured had the dire warnings the NWS released not happened? 

Neither the July. 10, 2023 nor the July 11, 2024 flood was a surprise because National Weather Service meteorologists bombarded us with warnings, detailed, accurate forecasts and great advice.

Surprises and inaccurate information are what kill people. Gutting the National Weather Service, and NOAA as a whole will greatly increase the likelihood that these inevitable, scary storms will take us by surprise.

Just more evidence that - false campaign rhetoric to the contrary - Donald Trump and his minions do NOT care about people like you and me. At all.  

NOAA Weather, Research Canceled By Trump Goons, U.S. No Longer A Place For Science Education.

The Trump administration keeps finding ways to endanger
American lives. They're now working to sharply cut
back NOAA research on weather, and climate,
along with satellite technology that provides crucial
information to business, agriculture and the 
general public. 

 If you're relying on scientists to inform us and help humanity learn the risks of climate change, don't count on the United States, thanks to our "Glorious Leader" Donald Trump. 

As Science.org reports:

"President Donald Trump's administration is seeking to end nearly all of the climate research conducted by the U.S.  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), one of the country's premier climate science agencies, according to an internal budget document seen by Science. 

The document indicates the White House is ready to ask Congress to eliminate NOAA's climate research centers and cut hundreds of federal and academic climate scientists who track and study human-driven global warming."

As at least one scientists quoted in the article says. all this is happening because "the Trump administration doesn't like the answers to scientific questions NOAA has been studying for a half-century."

Because, as we all know, if we say climate change doesn't exist then, POOF! It goes away, right?

Uh, yeah. Until the next big climate-driven wildfire, storm or heat wave.  

CNN puts the effects of these cuts pretty starkly:

"The cuts would devastate weather and climate research as weather is becoming more erratic, extreme and costly. It would cripple the U.S. industries - including agriculture - that depend on free, accurate weather and climate data and expert analysis. It could also halt research on deadly weather, including severe storms and tornadoes."

 I would add that this would add to a developing brain drain in the United States. Since Trump and the government are now openly hostile to scientists, those scientists probably flee to other nations where they can actually conduct research.

Make America Stupid Again! 

There are quite a few gems in the internal budget document Science reviewed.

The plan would "eliminate all funding for climate, weather, and ocean laboratories and cooperative institutes."

The White House wants to "eliminate NOAA's climate research centers and cut hundreds of federal and academic climate scientists who track and study human-driven global warming," as Science writes. 

Also says Science:

"The proposal would cut NOAA's competitive climate research grants program, which awards roughly $70 million a year to academic scientists. It would end support for collecting regional climate data and information often used by farmers and other industries."

Wait, I thought the Trump people loved  who they call real Americans, you know, farmers. But the tariffs, and now the withholding of critical weather and climate information from said farmers, I'm not so sure. 

Important satellite technology looks like it will go by the wayside, too. 

The Trump administration would also cut back drastically on its satellite technology, which provides a lot of data critical for weather forecasts, and for weather and climate research. Not to mention coastal security.  NOAA had been working on several new satellites that would have gone into orbit around 2032, and would have greatly advanced skill in weather forecasting. 

But I guess that's not important anymore.  

These NOAA cuts come as the National Weather Service is already increasingly hamstrung by staffing and other cuts that are creating gaps in weather data that are making forecasts less accurate - including predictions for dangerous storms. 

National Weather Service offices across the nation are understaffed, heightening the risk that overworked meteorologists would miss clues that life threatening weather might be about to break out. 

But that's OK.  No great loss if more than a few die in weather disasters as long as those added tax breaks go straight to the billionaires, right?

More NOAA And National Weather Service Woes. Cutbacks, Micromanaging Threaten Forecast Communications

A critical communications tool used by NOAA and the
National Weather Service was almost shut down by
cutback and foot dragging by members of the Trump
administration. If the shutdown had happened, 
weather information that would have resulted in
timely storm warnings would have been crippled. 

Brutal staff cuts, budget cuts all in the name of "saving money" (Hah!) have already badly hurt the National Weather Service's ability to do its literally life saving work.  

Now, even worse, as  Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is  micromanaging in a way  that is threatening public safety even more. 

The Commerce Department oversees the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and by extension the National Weather Service.

Lutnick says he has to personally approve many contracts and extensions. The time it takes for him to do that is slowing operations down, and earlier this week nearly shut down a critical forecasting communication tool whose contract was about to expire,.

And, because a contract wasn't renewed, the National Weather Service halted foreign language forecasts right before one of the worst severe weather outbreaks in years was just about to start.

NOAA COMMUNICATION

Earlier, this week, the NOAA nearly lost a critical communications tool due to foot dragging on contracts. 

  Per Axios:

"As severe thunderstorms rumbled along the East Coast on Monday, the National Weather Service faced the possibility of losing its ability to bring satellite and observational data into forecast offices in a timely manner, starting at midnight, current and former staff told Axios."

I  have to stop right here before going on with the story to just note that Axios has been absolutely fantastic covering how the Trump administration is hindering the National Weather Service. Trump and Elon Musk and DOGE moves are threatening the lives of so many Americans who live in the path of dangerous storms. 

The Trump brigade is  endangering lives in a myriad of other ways too, of course, but since this is a weather and climate blog, I'll stay in my lane for now. 

The most recent problem involved what is known as the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System or AWIPS. It's the main way meteorologists access weather data from satellites, radars, ground observations and computer models 

Axios again: 

"If the contract was to expire - even temporarily - the AWIPS help desk would stop functioning. Data flowing to NWS offices, particularly satellites and observational information, could be subject to delays, to NOAA sources familiar with the matter told Axios. 

This could jeopardize the timely issuance of extreme weather watches and warnings. Forecasters would have been operating on a time delay, which would cost lives during severe weather outbreaks"

Even seemingly mundane tasks at NOAA and National Weather Service offices are getting screwed up A notice went out that facilities services at NOAA headquarters in Silver Spring, Maryland, such as changing lightbulbs and adjusting thermostats have been suspended.

I have no idea why. It's just petty. 

The whole Lutnick and his minions must approve contracts understandably has eyes rolling. I'm all for oversight, as who wants to see tax dollars wasted or stolen?  But that oversight had already been in place. Concentrating that oversight into the hands of a billionaire (Lutnick) who is beholden to his billionaire friends just makes me nervous. 

I'm not saying by any stretch of the imagination Lutnick is a crook, mostly because I have zero evidence that he is.  But concentrating the oversight to him just invites trouble. 

"This is outrageously inefficient,' Rick Spinrad, NOAA' administrator during the Biden administration, told Axios. 'Secondly, I understand that the recommendations for approval are being vetted by newly replaced political appointees with zero technical experience,' Spinrad said."

Future procurements include a new C-130 Hurricane Hunter aircraft to replace its current aging fleet, moving agency IT operations to the cloud, and building and sending off new weather satellites. A new cloud-based version of AWIPS is also planned.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FORECASTS

Despite the hysteria of MAGA who insist that everyone be proficient in English, not everybody wholes in the United States is fluent in the language. Hell, half of MAGA can't speak or comprehend English very well, but that's another story. 

On Tuesday , a contract with the AI translation firm Lilt lapsed. This was immediately before what will become a nearly week long outbreak of rapidly changing, extreme severe weather, including tornadoes and catastrophic flooding. 

You'd think that people who don't speak English should at least be still told a large tornado was headed toward their house, but that's not the thinking here, apparently. 

Per Bloomberg, via Earth.org

"The five-year contract, valued at $5.8 million and set to be renewed every spring, helped provide weather forecast translations into Spanish, Chinese and three other languages to some 30 cities and metropolitan areas across the country."

There were no plans to substitute in another service until the Lilt contract is renewed. Nobody seems to be sure when or if the contract will be renewed.  

Just the usual incompetence and total lack of professionalism we've come to expect from members fo the Trump administration.