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| Florida meteorologists John Morales, one of the nation's top hurricane forecasters, worried on air that NOAA cutbacks would mean critical hurricane forecasts would be less accurate this year, which in turn would endanger lives |
Dorian seemed headed straight for Florida, and residents there began to panic.
Florida meteorologist John Morales, and one of the nation's top hurricane experts, told his audience to relax.
Morales reassured viewers that Dorian would make a sharp right turn just before reaching Florida, sparing the state from great harm.
For non-meteorologists, a hurricane making such a sharp, sudden turn didn't sound plausible. But Morales was confident.
And he was right. That sharp turn came on the afternoon of September 3, and Florida was more or less safe.
I'm bringing this up now because Morales was on the air as usual recently at NBC 6 in South Florida, one day earlier this month. This time, he his audience he no longer has the confidence that he could forecast a hurricane so precisely and so correctly like he did with Dorian
Morales' skill set is as good as ever. NOAA, which is responsible for providing the data for meteorologists like Morales, is not as good as ever.
".... I am here to tell you that I am not sure that I can do that this year because of the cuts, the gutting, the sledgehammer attack on science in general," Morales said on a June 9 broadcast on NBC 6 South Florida.
The massive cuts the Trump administration has made to NOAA has led to staffing shortages at National Weather Service offices across the nation, including those in central and southern Florida. Fewer weather balloons are being launched to study the details of what the atmosphere is doing and how that atmosphere will steer storms, and how the strength of those storms change.
Because of these developments, less data is being collected, "What we're starting to see is that the quality of the forecast is becoming degraded," Morales said.
There's also a chance that we'll have fewer hurricane hunter flights into hurricanes. Those flights collect detailed data that really help forecasters pin down exactly where a hurricane will come ashore and how strong it will be once it gets there.
"We may be flying blind, and we may not know exactly how strong a hurricane is before it reaches the coastline," Morales said.
He concluded by telling viewers to call their representatives and tell them these cost must be stopped.
TRUMP'S PEOPLE RESPOND, WHILE MUSK FADES
Unfortunately, I keep getting less and less trustful about the truthfulness of anything a federal spokesperson says under the Trump regime, but here goes:
People magazine, reaching out to NOAA, said a spokesperson said the National Hurricane Center "has a sufficient number of forecasters to fill mission-critical operational shifts during the 2025 hurricane season." The spokesperson said the hurricane center "remains dedicated" to providing timely weather forecasts and warnings."
We'll see about that.
Public pressure to provide enough staff to allow NOAA/National Weather Service to perform its mission to protect the public might actually be having a little bit of positive effect on the Trump administration.
Especially with Elon Musk pretty much out of the picture for now.
Musk was exceptionally keen on getting rid of practically everyone working for the federal government including those in NOAA, To his mind, the only person that needs to be protected from scary weather is himself. Screw everyone else. He is, after the all, the ultimate Main Character Syndrome poster boy.
Now, Musk's bromance with Donald Trump seems to be over. (Bill Maher, in the spirt of "Brajalina" or "Bennifer" called the Musk/Trump bromance "Elump" which is kinda fun).
With Musk out of the way for now and public pressure growing to keep the Nation Weather Service functioning, there is a tiny bit of appetite for hiring back some of the lost staff at NOAA, Not enough to solve its problems, but maybe ease them a tiny bit.
IMPROVING NOAA STAFFING
NOAA says they will reshuffle staff to areas where staff shortages are especially acute. Basically encouraging remaining staff to move to offices that are really short on workers, Which doesn't really solve the overall problem of not enough resources, but I suppose it's a tiny start.
Even better news came a little over a week ago, which is a nice symptom of Musk's departure:
The National Weather Service lost more than 560 employees to layoff and early retirement incentives., Now, the NWS has managed to get permission to hire about 125 new meteorologists, technicians and specialists for forecast offices around the nation, CNN reported.
This might help with National Weather Service offices that can't be staffed overnight during periods of non-threatening weather. Or even better, keep enough staff to meteorologists can adequately keep their eyes on the ball when there is dangerous weather.
The new hires still won't be enough to overcome the effects of the bigger staff losses. I, like Morales, am not comfortable with the lack of NOAA staffing, even if those 125 replacement people come on board. I still think weather forecast quality and accuracy is degraded, despite the heroic efforts of remaining meteorologists with NWS.
SENSIBLE LEGISLATION
I was intrigued with a bill recently introduced by U.S. Senators Jerry Moran, (R-Kansas) and Gary Peters (D-Michigan) that would exempt National Weather Service employees from any executive order or memorandum imposing a hiring freeze,
It would essentially designate NWS employees as public safety officials, sort of like FBI agents or Border Patrol officers.
Makes sense, since National Weather Service meteorologists' main job is public safety, right? I also find it interesting that this is a bipartisan bill coming out in these bifurcated times.
I have no idea whether this bill will go anywhere, but it's another sign the Trump administration is out of step with the majority of Americans who agree with Morales and want to continue receiving the best possible information when deadly storms threaten.
I imagine the Trump administration isn't a fan of this good idea for Moran and Peters, so we'll see.
Still, under the increasingly autocratic Trump, it's getting riskier to criticize the prez and/or his administration. Especially if you're a widely watched public figure like Morales. The Trump people have a habit of unleashing their MAGA goons on them by launching social media attacks, doxxing them, even threatening them with arrest.
Or trying to demand the corporations that employ these outspoken truth tellers "or else."
After the broadcast, The Guardian asked Morales if "he was worried about retaliation from an administration that's south to defund and disparage scientists. Morales said 'No, not at all. Science is science."
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