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| An early guess from the National Weather Service as to how much rain might fall between now and Sunday morning. Orange areas would receive two or more inches of rain. Note that this forecast will probably change, perhaps by a lot, so for now take it with a grain of salt. |
It still got warm in northern Vermont, with highs reaching as high as 86 in Burlington.
That's far better than the upper 90s of the previous few days, though. And the humidity really crashed. The dew point was an oppressive 70 degrees in Burlington at 7 a.m,. but was a refreshing 57 by 4 p.m.
Southern and eastern Vermont held on to some of the heat for one more day, though at least it wasn't record breaking.
Lebanon, New Hampshire, just across the river from White River Junction, reached 94 degrees. It was 92 degrees in Springfield, Vermont Wednesday.
Today, the heat is suppressed way down south, broiling places like the Mid-Atlantic States and places like West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and Illinois.
But this "heat dome" isn't done with us.
No, it's not going to see record heat again up here in Vermont from this thing again. But the heat dome is going to try to push north again. It might not really make it back into the Green Mountain State again. But it'll work in concert with the usual weather disturbances that ride along the northern edge of these things to give Vermont - sigh - a potential flash flood threat.
It's not as if Vermont needs another flood after what we've been through in recent years. But here we go again. Maybe. The good news is that so far, even if Vermont sees any flooding Saturday, it shouldn't be catastrophic like we saw in the Julys of 2023 and 2024.
We might not end up having any trouble at all. But the potential is there.
FLOOD RISK EXPLAINED
Leading up to the heavier rain that might come in later Friday and Saturday, it look like the weather will get increasingly unsettled, just little hints of what might - or might not be to come. (I'll explain why I'm hedging here in just a bit).
Dying disturbances coming in from the west should cloud us up by this afternoon and spread light showers across much of Vermont. Nothing dangerous here. Just enough to wet the ground a bit.
We'll still be at risk of lighter showers tonight and most of Friday.
The potential trouble starts Friday night into Saturday.
As that "heat dome" pushes north a little bit, it''sl shove a warm front toward Vermont. That will vastly increase atmospheric moisture over us. It will also enhance upper level winds over southern Quebec, which tend to add lift to the atmosphere, which encourages heavy rain.
The contrast between the cooler air to the north and hot, humid air to the south will also sharpen up. All these factors would create what will be a relatively narrow west to east streak of occasionally torrential rains somewhere. Most like either in southern Quebec and/or across northern New York, northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire.
As of this morning, meteorologists seemed pretty confident about the overall weather setup Friday night and Saturday, but less sure about the precise location of the heavy rain.
Maybe it will stay in southern Quebec, sparing us in Vermont any trouble. Or, it could really hit areas north of Route 2, setting up a potential risk of flash flooding.
Since we Vermonters all have flood PTSD, I'll note again that even if the heaviest rain hits Vermont - fingers majorly crossed - it doesn't look like it would be a catastrophic flood. But still potentially troublesome. And of course all the meteorologists and experts will keep a close eye on this so we don't get any surprises.
Early guesses are the steep terrain of the northern Green Mountains is the most likely problem spot. Especially up near Jay Peak and surrounding communities. If torrential rain develops, runoff would cascade down those steep slopes, causing those risky flash floods.
The first rainfall estimates I've seen suggest up to four inches up near Jay Peak, and between two and 2.5 inches in the northern Champlain Valley and Northeast Kingdom, with locally higher amounts.
The far northern Adirondacks and far northern New Hampshire are also at risk of flooding, as noted by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center.
Take that with a grain of salt for now. Depending on how this sets up, actual amounts could be much less, or a little more than forecasts are now suggesting. Again, it all depends on where that band of heaviest rain would set up.
The National Weather Service is toying with the idea of maybe issuing a flood watch for northern Vermont. As of this morning, they were holding off for now because the rainfall forecast is still so questionable.
I'm pretty relaxed central and southern Vermont. I suppose there could be a surprise, but all signs point to rain south of Route 2, but nothing scary.
Those rains should start to taper off later Saturday. It looks like it might turn briefly pretty warm and humid toward the beginning of next week, but it won't be anything as torrid as we had a few days ago.
More showers and storms also seem likely Monday night and Tuesday, but it's too soon to tell how widespread those might be.
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