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| It's the season of irises and Korean lilacs in St. Albans, Vermont as we hit early June. Peonies are budding, and should get more drinks of water as an unsettled weather pattern continues. For the first time in years, we're into June and I haven't had to water the gardens yet this season. |
True, we've had a couple sunny, lovely if smoky days (those darn Canadian wildfires again). We're now going to be harassed by a series of weather systems.
At least it won't be particularly chilly under these rain storms. It'll range from vaguely coolish and definitely damp to warm and humid during this upcoming period of unsettled weather.
We'll do it day by day here again. Note that the forecast will get more iffy the further we go into the future, as there's greater opportunity for predictions to shift as more information comes in.
TODAY
We're still dealing with a weak cold front bumping into to warm, and now increasingly humid air over Vermont. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected to blossom today. A few strong ones could pop up this afternoon.
The National Weather Service office in South Burlington says those storms could happen anywhere in Vermont this afternoon. But as of this morning's forecast, the stronger cells are most likely in central and south central Vermont.
In far northwest Vermont, the cold front might come through early enough in the afternoon so there's only a short window before 3 p.m. in which a strong storm could get going there. Unless the front slows down, then the risk would last a bit longer.
The slow moving cold front will probably not even make into southeastern Vermont today, so the chances of storms there is lower there. But still possible.
For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has all of Vermont (along with most of New York, New Hampshire and Maine) in a marginal risk zone for severe thunderstorms. That means a few isolated thunderstorms could become severe, with damaging winds.
Even storms that aren't technically severe can pack a punch with gusty winds, torrential rain and lightning, so beware of that.
This will be hit and miss. I think most places in central Vermont should see at least some rain today. A few unlucky places that get hit by more than one downpour could see very local, minor flooding. It'll be more hit and miss in northwest Vermont, and especially hit and mis in the southeast.
Oh, and it will be uncomfortably warm and humid today, too, so take it easy.
FRIDAY
The further north you go in Vermont Friday, the better off you'll be. Today's cold front will stall over or near southern Vermont. A ripple of low pressure, just a little disturbance, really, will make more showers and a few thunderstorms pick back up again by afternoon. At least in southern Vermont.
After maybe some morning sun clouds and a chance of showers will work their way north during the afternoon. I'm not sure whether the showers will make it all the way north past Route 2. So the northern third of Vermont cold eke out a decent Friday.
SATURDAY
As I've said a zillion times before in 2025, if it's Saturday in Vermont, it will rain. Everybody in the state from Alburgh to Guilford and from Canaan to Pownal stands an excellent chance of seeing at least some rain on Saturday.
Computer models are continuing to struggle with who gets the most rain. They're agreeing with each other a bit more than they did yesterday, so that's a good trend, I guess. We'll definitely have a better idea of what's going on by tomorrow.
Early indications are the heavier rain would stay over southern and central Vermont, but we still have no guarantee on that. There's even a chance - just a chance - that we could have periods of dry weather on Saturday in some areas.
But don't count on it. There's also a risk there could be some heavy rains in some areas with this. We don't know exactly if and where yet. But it's something to watch in case we have to worry about some minor flooding again.
It'll be cool on Saturday under the clouds, but not as bad as last Saturday's washout. Highs should be in the mid and upper 60s, with some low 70s possible in areas that get lucky enough in which the rain stops for awhile.
More details on Saturday's mess coming in tomorrow morning's post.
BEYOND SATURDAY
The weather pattern should stay active into next week, with frequent disturbances coming through. It's too early to tell when exactly it will rain next week and how hard. But count on frequent chances of showers and maybe thunderstorms.
At this point, Sunday at least looks better than Saturday. We might even get through the day with no rain at all. Yippee!
MORE PHANTOM HURRICANES
As it has done for more than a week now, the American computer forecasting model keeps spitting hurricanes about ten days to two weeks from the date the computer forecast is released. As I've noted before, it's a quirk of the model, these storms won't happen.
I'm bringing it up again, because the American model from overnight really had too much to drink at happy hour yesterday and brings a powerful hurricane into Florida then races it right north up to Vermont with flooding rains around June 19.
I'm sure this WILL NOT HAPPEN! This morning's subsequent run of the American model that just came in does not have any signs of that hurricane, so I guess the computer system sobered up.
I'm only bringing this up because some people on social media like to highlight "scaricanes" to power clicks and views. Which unnecessarily frightens people, And cries "wolf" so many times that people will ignore real dangers when and if they arise.
Your best bet if you're worried about hurricanes and floods and such in Vermont, go to the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service office in South Burlington for actual reality. I'll do my best as I always do to forward their messaging to this here blog thingy.
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