Vermont Is No Climate Refuge. No Place Is. It's Up To Us To Adapt, Or Try To

A sign outside a Johnson, Vermont church after destructive
floods swept the town and much of the rest of the state
earlier this month. Adapting to climate change is
going to take the ethos seen in this sign. 

 I have to delve into something I touched on just after the worst of Vermont's flooding in July. 

In a July 14 post when I was explaining what caused the July 10-11 cataclysmic flood in the Green Mountain State in, I mentioned a 2021 study that said Vermont is one of the best places in the United States to shield oneself from the effects of climate change. 

That study by Pro Publica and the New York Times said the top four safest counties in the United States from climate change are the Vermont counties of Lamoille, Orange, Franklin and Essex. All of Vermont was regarded in the study as a pretty  protected from climate change. 

The United States' "safest" county, Lamoille, has been declared a federal disaster area no fewer than 12 times in the past decade. That includes two this year: The big July flood, of course, and a weird May freeze that ruined crops that grew too early because of an unseasonably warm early spring. 

As VTDigger points out, we end up on lots of lists as a great climate refuge.  We're far enough north so that extreme heat waves aren't as big a threat. There's no coastline to drown in a hurricane or  nor'easter storm surge. We aren't nearly as prone to forest fires at places out west or in Canada.  

This "safety" has prompted some people to move to Vermont to escape the ravages of climate change. However, as we've seen this summer, there's really no escape. 

A summer-like early spring led to the freeze that damaged so many crops in Vermont.  Like seemingly everywhere else, the weather seems to whiplash back and forth, from a developing drought in June to catastrophic floods in July. 

Algae blooms closed some lakefront beaches in Vermont. We didn't really have any wildfires to speak of, but boy, we've had a lot of smoke from those fires in Canada and the western United States.

"This summer has maybe burst the bubble a little bit in what probably was more of just a myth, of Vermont being in an idea climate refuge," Jared Ulmer, the climate and health program manager at the Vermont Department of Health told VTDigger.

I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so.

I think most of us knew, when those 2021 studies came out about Vermont being a climate refuge that there were some huge asterisks attached to those study conclusions. 

It's not that ProPublica and the New York Times were wrong. It's just that Vermont is not in a hermetically sealed utopia of steady climate, steady people and and steady safety. 

That's not to say we have to sit here and be victims every time a climate disaster rolls around. Like everybody else on the planet, Vermont has to adapt to a changing climate. It's wetter here now, at least most of the time. But droughts are also more likely to intervene. 

Winters are warmer, which mucks up our winter sports season. The weather around our iconic maple sugaring season is now all over the place. Weird late winter and early spring heat waves have hurt that industry. 

Summer is tourist season in Vermont. Among all the other problems our July floods caused this year, I'm sure the destruction discouraged some visitors from coming to the Green Mountain State. 

With each new climate-related calamity or mishap, we learn what to do next time.  Or try to. After Tropical Storm Irene's epic floods in 2011 Vermont rebuilt with, at least in some places, stronger bridges, bigger culverts and better drainage.

We also moved some people away from flood prone areas after Irene. But not enough people, apparently 

I think many of us think of climate change in making our life and property decisions.  A few years ago, we replaced a culvert under our driveway, making it much larger than the previous ones and reinforcing it with large rocks. 

That surely saved our driveway from this summer's floods, but still, we weren't unscathed. The water was so powerful that it moved some the rocks away.  That could make the culvert prone to damage in the next torrent.  It doesn't end, does it?

As with Gov. Peter Shumlin after Irene, our current Gov. Phil Scott is solidly leading Vermont out of the latest flood crisis, and his team is surely figuring out how to, as they say, build back better. 

There's only so much we can do, of course. Like it or not, Vermont, just like every other place on the planet, will keep facing newer and weirder climate challenges. 

Vermont is just one tiny dot on the map. All over the world, governments, individuals, organizations, corporations and businesses are now constantly calculating climate change into their plans. Even if some of these entities won't admit they're doing it. 

This state of affairs all snuck up without us fully realizing it, despite decades of hair on fire warnings from thousands of climate scientists. 

Don't get me wrong.  I'm not saying we're doomed, like the story I hear from some climate activists. It would be easier to reduce carbon emissions so we don't make bad situation worse. But so far, the fossil fuel industry and some greedy politicians are making sure that doesn't happen just yet. 

I just hope that with everything else going on in the world, sane heads prevail as we all react and batten down in the face of climate change. 

Frankly, I'm not that optimistic about many of our national and world leaders, or some corporations for that matter. But, as I've seen here in Vermont after this summer's floods, we're acting as individuals and small communities to recover from, and brace for the effects to climate change. 

That's probably the best path worldwide.  As best we can, we act locally, and hope the bigwigs catch up with us, eventually. 

 

Water Temperatures On Florida Coast A Hot Tub, Is It A Record? Doesn't Matter, Precious Coral Dying

Fish swim past bleached and dying coral off the 
coast of Florida in this image from Coral Morphalogic,

 It was a record high ocean temperature, then it wasn't. 

You probably heard the wide-spread reports that the water temperature in Manatee Bay, Florida reached 101.1 degrees. That's a pretty standard temperature for a hot tub.  

Turns out, as serious as the hot water is, it might not be a record. 

Mike Lowry, a hurricane and storm surge expert in Florida, said he found evidence that this is not a new record after all. He tweeted: "Amazingly, the water temperature at Manatee Bay FL on Monday, while historically high, may not be a record for the station. Back in August, 2017, it hit 102 F according to Everglades National Park South Florida Natural Resources Center (SDNRC) that maintains the sensor network."

Also, the water in Manatee Bay gets hot quickly because there's a lot of dark sediment floating around in it. That attracts the sun's heat, making it get toasty quickly. 

All this is not to dismiss the importance of that 101.1 degree water temperature in Manatee Bay, and the record hot water all around Florida. I'm for precision, but I'm sure not going to gaslight, or sugar coat what's going on. 

El Nino, which tends to raise ocean temperatures, and climate change have conspired to cause all kinds of problems around the world. Including creating some dangerously high water temperatures around Florida.  

CORAL CRISIS

The most serious issue with this hot tub water is the fate of the coral reefs around Florida. Hot water can have dire consequences for those coral reefs.  That's a potential tragic loss for Florida, and to some extent, the nation as a whole.   

Per the Washington Post:

"Already, scientists have reported widespread coral bleaching along parts of the roughly 360-mile long reef, the third larges on the planet. If the heat drafts on, they say, a massive coral die-off could follow, with grave consequences for fish and other ocean organisms that depend on the reefs, tourism, commercial fishing and part of the state's very identity."

The coral reefs also dissipate up to 97 percent of the energy in waves generated by storms and hurricanes. This minimizes damage from such storms along the coast. Lose the coral, lose the coastline in a future hurricane.

Coral bleaching does not mean dead coral.  But it's a big step in that direction.  WaPo again:

"The corals have endured past incidents of bleaching, a process in which stressed corals expel their symbiotic algae, known as zooxanthellae, and turn pale or white. The frequency and severity of such events has increased since the 1980s, and one of the last significant bleaching events off the Florida Keys took place in 2014."

Scientists are especially worried because these really hot ocean temperatures hit pretty early in the summer. Past coral bleaching events started in mid-August, not mid-July like this year.  

The longer bleaching persists, the more coral will die. 

"If it remains this hot for the next six weeks, we are going to see a lot more coral mortality out there,' said Cynthia Lewis, director of the Florida Institute of Oceanography Keys Marine Laboratory."

Coral does best when the water temperature is between 73 and 84 degrees, so it's got a long way to go before it can cool off.   The water temperature in most of the coral reef area near Florida is between 90 and 98 degrees.

We  probably have to get into September before water temperatures near Florida noticeably start to cool.

Once the coral is dead, there's no coming back. Some scientists liken the current situation in Florida to a wildfire tearing through a rare old growth forest. 

The coral extends from north of Miami south and southwestward through the Florida Keys to a point out in the Gulf of Mexico west of Key West.

Scientists, activists and others are actually doing rescue missions for the coral around Florida. As the Miami Herald reports:

"Dozens of scientists working to save Florida's coral reefs are scrambling to save what they can, taking the highly unusual step of removing imperiled specimens and bringing them to the Keys Marine Laboratory operated by the University of South Florida and the Florida Institute of Oceanography, one of several sites in Florida accepting refugee corals amid the marine heat wave ringing the state."

They've accepted about 5,000 corals and are at 100 percent capacity at all the saltwater aquariums the institute has. That's a tiny percentage of the corals out there. 

Some spots have already reported 100 percent coral mortality rates, which is tragic. Miami Herald again: 

"'It is just truly like holy shit. It's more than a wake-up call. What do you do when the house burns down? How do you rebuild without the pieces you need to start all over again,' said Colin Ford, a coral researcher and artist who founded Coral Morphologic."

Even the corals that can survive the high heat of the water probably lost their ability to reproduce this year. They usually reproduce in August or early September, when, if anything, the water will be even hotter. Scientists think that will hinder or cancel any attempts to reproduce.

WATER AND HURRICANES

Here's another issue that makes the hot water around Florida worrying.  Such extremely warm water temperatures is super high octane fuel for hurricanes. 

If a hurricane is approaching the Florida coast this year, and the atmosphere supports the hurricane's structure, I'd have to worry the storm would rapidly strengthen on approach to the coast, catching people off guard.

Hurricane Ian last year sort of did that in and around Fort Myers Beach.

One slim hope for the coral this year is if a fairly weak tropical storm causes cool water upwelling from the lower depths of the water. A strong hurricane would do that, too, but we wouldn't want the destruction that entails. 

Other than that, the only mechanism to cool the hot water around Florida is autumn. 

 

Vermont, As Advertised Finally Free Of Rain/Humidity Hell

Water droplets glisten on day lilies Saturday evening
in St. Albans, Vermont after it finally stopped
raining. A drier weather pattern begins today. 

At our house in St. Albans, Vermont last night, we left the doors open, and just the screen shut overnight on the sliding glass doors that lead from our living room to the outdoor deck.  

The result was I awoke this morning to cool, fresh, fragrant air drifting through the house.

 My alarm clock was bird song from outdoors, which wasn't drowned out by the constant hum of the bedroom air conditioner which has been on almost nightly for five weeks. 

I think all Vermonters are relishing in this change in air. The humidity is finally gone! 

SATURDAY RECAP

The transition to better conditions was a little rougher than I thought it would be Saturday. The rain was steadier and heavier for most of us than anticipated. It prompted some scattered flood warnings in Addison County and in the southern Green Mountains between Killington and Okemo.

There was a report of flooding closing roads in Bernardston, Massachusetts, which is right on the Vermont border. 

But, happy to say, I have so far seen no reports of any new major damage. There were probably some minor washouts and high water, but nothing to add substantially to the huge destruction from this month's floods. 

Yesterday's rain brought Montpelier's rainfall to the month to just about a foot which is amazing. Technically, they only have had 11.97 inches of rain,  but I'm calling that a foot. 

Most of the East Coast and Appalachians from central New England south through the Middle Atlantic States weren't so lucky, with major storm damage reported in a number of spots. Widespread flooding was reported in Boston and surrounding communities. 

Washington DC, Baltimore and surrounding areas suffered tons of wind damage as thunderstorm gusts ranged up to 84 mph, as measured at DC's George Washington University Mount Vernon Campus.   In DC, an apartment building lost its roof, and many trees at the Smithsonian National Zoo were toppled. Some of those fallen trees blocked streets.

One person died when a tree fell on a house in Prince Williams County, Virginia.

THE RAIN GRIP IS BROKEN

Back here in Vermont, one big factor that kept the flash flood risk going all month in Vermont was the lack of any real breaks in the rain. Heavy rains hit somewhere in the state pretty much every other day, so soils could not dry out.  

Any heavy rains that did fall would not be able to soak into the already saturated ground and just run off.    Which meant that some downpours that would not be a big deal during most summers would cause flooding and washouts this month.  

Now we'll have a chance to dry out some. 

Today starts that process, as it will be a beauty.  Blue skies, puffy clouds for decorations, very low humidity and temperatures only making it into the 70s.  Get outside and enjoy! 

Aside from the lower humidity, the big break we're getting is a lack of heavy rain until at least Thursday night or Friday. Additionally, we'll have some sunny days with low humidity, which will help dry things out. 

We do have scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for tomorrow, mostly central and south. But they'll move right along so it won't rain much in any one spot. Many places won't see any rain at all. More importantly, there's not that much moisture to work with in the air, so Monday's storms won't be able to generate torrential downpours. 

This all leaves me pretty hopeful that when any potential downpours do reach us in the more humid air expected on Friday, they won't cause any real problems. 

The overall weather pattern continues to feature at least the possibility of cooler air and mostly lower humidity well into August. At least compared to what we dealt with in July. 

 

Weeks Long Siege Of Miserable Humidity In Vermont Reaches Its Merciful End Today

Some glimpses of blue sky visible to the north of St,
Albans, Vermont this morning as a cold front is
starting to end a long siege of humidity in Vermont

UPDATE 1 PM

It looks like that slow cold front in Vermont, temporarily stalled out as of now across the middle of the state, is causing a few more problems than we thought it would

I guess you need a parting shot for the siege of awful summer weather we've had, right?

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center said it would likely issue a severe thunderstorm watch for much of southern and central New England and a large chunk of eastern New York.

This likely storm watch would likely cover Vermont from Rutland and White River Junction south.

Unfortunately, we're also going to have to watch central and southern Vermont for those dreaded locally heavy downpours, which could caused a couple instances of flash flooding. The threat of localized flash flooding in Vermont's southern four counties has, in my opinion increased some with the latest forecast.

A flood watch that had been in effect in Massachusetts in New Hampshire is still in effect, but has been expanded to cover Bennington and Windham counties in Vermont.

No guarantee any high water will actually hit, but it's once again something to watch.  Rain was also spreading into northern Vermont, but it shouldn't fall heavily enough there to worry about.

I think New Hampshire is really under the gun for severe storms and flash floods today, even more so than southern Vermont. 

A few days ago, it appeared that we'd have this kind of potential trouble. Then updated forecasts said nah, never mind. But this being the onerous Summer of 2023, we had to have one more annoying storm threat, huh?

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 Yesterday, as expected was a torrid one, with highs in the 80s to near 90 with impressive humidity to boot.  

Burlington, Vermont managed a high of 91 degrees. That's the seventh 90 degree reading this year.  

It won't hit 90 degrees again for quite awhile, so I hope you enjoyed it. There's actually a chance that it was the last 90 of the year, given the upcoming weather pattern. 

The long siege of humidity that has engulfed Vermont since late June is over, as of later today. 

We thankfully missed out on some violent thunderstorms that hit not far over the border in extreme eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. 

The Ottawa area, which has been repeatedly battered by big storms this summer, had a massive hail and wind storm.  Multitudes of golf ball sized hailstones rained down and high winds tore down plenty of trees amid tornado warnings during the afternoon.

The storms fizzled as they approached the International border though, so no trouble for us. 

THE BIG CHANGE

Today is a transition day as the cold front that inspired those big Ottawa/Quebec storms sinks through Vermont.

Although there is a remote chance of a strong storm in southern Vermont today, we won't have anything like what blasted through Ottawa yesterday. 

Instead, a disturbance riding along that slow southbound cold front will make rain break out during the day. It'll be lightest north, and heavier south. Though there's an outside chance of a downpour torrential enough to cause a bit of a flash flood risk in far southern Vermont, this is falling well short of the most worrisome storm of the summer.

There are some flood watches up just to our south and east in New Hampshire and western Massachusetts. 

The cold front had already made it through far northern Vermont as of 7 a.m. and I'm beginning to feel a change in the air up her in St. Albans. Despite the likely rain, you'll notice a slow decline in the humidity today.  Though it should remain sticky pretty much until evening in the southern part of the state.

Tomorrow still looks gorgeous, with sunshine, low humidity and the coolest weather we've seen since  mid-June. The break from our long humid spell will be noticeably over, Most of the upcoming week looks to be on the cool side for our transition into August. 

In fact, the long term forecast well into the month is balanced toward cooler than normal weather. That doesn't mean we'll avoid warm, humid days. In fact, a brief rainy, humid spell seems like it's in the cars for next Friday or so before it cools off again. 

I don't entirely trust long range predictions - I tend to suspect anything looking ahead more than five days. But if the extend forecasts that are out now are in any way accurate, we might be facing the coolest August in years here in Vermont.

That's not saying much, since most Augusts in the past decade were quite a bit on the warm side. We won't come close to experiencing a historically chilly August. 

One More Oppressive Day, Then "Autumn" Arrives, And We Go Flood-Free

After a rainy, very humid day in St. Albans, Vermont, a 
glimpse of evening sun shines through this hydrangea
blossom. Less humid air is on the way. 

Boy, that humidity on Thursday was miserable, we can certainly whine about that.

But we should also thank our lucky stars that a day that had a relatively high potential for severe thunderstorms and flash floods in Vermont produced neither.  

It was rainy, it was stormy, it was dark, but it was not destructive in any sense of the world. By this summer's standards, that's a bonus day 

Dew points, a good measure of how uncomfortable it feels, were solidly in the low 70s for most of us.  For hours on end. I saw a few reports of dew points of 74 degrees around Vermont. That's pretty much as high as it can go in these parts. 

Even if it was far from the hottest day of the summer, it probably was the most humid. And arguably the least comfortable. Especially given the rain, the clouds, the sauna-like atmosphere. 

We'll have to endure one more day of this, and then "autumn" arrives. More on that in a minute.

In terms of Thursday's storm damage potential, we dodged at least a couple bullets. The mesoscale convective system, or MCS that we knew would come through was on a weakening trend as it arrived Thursday morning.

Rainfall across northern Vermont was still heavy, but not enough to cause major harm. Sure, I saw some minor driveway washouts and ponding of water in my travels, but it wasn't enough to keep the state's July flood nightmare going.

We knew if there were to be severe thunderstorms, they'd strike southern Vermont. But the heaviest activity ending up getting going a tiny bit to our south and east.

For instance, a strong, but not really that severe thunderstorm crossed far southern Vermont. Once it crossed the Connecticut River into New Hampshire, the storm blew up, prompting a tornado warning around Keene, New Hampshire. Meteorologists expect to investigate the area to see whether a twister actually touched down. 

 FRIDAY

We're honestly not expecting much weather today, except toward evening in the far north. There could be a thunderstorm or two up there. 

But if you go outside anywhere in Vermont, you're going to wilt. Actual temperatures will hover somewhere between 85 and 90 for most of us, which isn't that extreme for this time of year.

But those dew points remain stubbornly high, near 70 degrees. A heat advisory is up for the Champlain Valley, and in the valleys of southern Vermont. The "real feel" out there will be in the mid-90s. Even though the rest of Vermont is not under that heat advisory, it'll still feel awful.

Be careful out there, and don't overdo it.  If you have some real physical exertion to do, wait at least until tomorrow or Sunday, when conditions will be much better. 

RELIEF IN SEVERAL FORMS

A cold front lurking in Quebec will slip into Vermont tonight, and that spells a long awaited and advertised huge shift in the weather pattern. 

There was a question yesterday as to whether that front would stall over Vermont Saturday and allow torrential storms along it to create a new flood threat. The first piece of good news is that it looks like that won't happen. The heaviest rain will pass to our south, so no worries there.  

Saturday will still be rainy, but not enough to make us worry about flooding. In fact, for the first time since maybe June, for the next five days at least, there is no chance of any flash flooding in the Vermont forecast.

You'll notice a dramatic cool down Saturday. It will still be a little damp and humid, but it will only get into the 70s.

Sunday looks like a stunner: Sunshine, a few photogenic puffy clouds, low humidity, coolish temperatures and perhaps not even any wildfire smoke from Canada! It looks like it will turn out to be a classic blue/green Chamber of Commerce day in Vermont.  The green being the landscape, the blue being the sky. 

Long range forecasts into August 10 suggest the Northeast
could stay on the comfortably cool side for awhile. 

It still looks like it will stay on the cool side pretty much all next week, too. There are chances of light rain showers Monday and perhaps into early Tuesday. But the next chance of any noticeable rain is at the end of next week.

Enjoy! 

 NOT JUST US

Much of the nation could use a break from the relentless heat and/or humidity many areas of the nation experienced during July.

Like Vermont several areas - but not all - seem destined to experience that break. Long range forecasts encompassing the first week of August suggest temperatures will be a little below normal throughout the Northeast.

Those cooler than normal temperatures could persist into the second week of August and possibly spread westward into the Great Lakes and northern Great Plains. 

Meanwhile, the southern tier of the United States looks like it will be mired in near record heat waves through at least the middle of August 

Europe Having At Least A Lousy Weather Summer As United States And Canada

Large swaths of Greece, especially the island Rhodes,
are on fire after a persistent, record breaking heatwave

 You might have seen glimpses of extreme weather news from Europe in between reports of relentless heat waves in some parts of the United States and extreme floods and storms in other sections of America.   

To confirm, yes, it's a weather summer from hell in much of Europe, too. 

It's kind of the same story as in the United States. Horrible heat and wildfires in the south, storms just a little further north and east. 

Let's take a miserable European tour here:

GREECE 

A long heat wave in Greece has led to scary wildfires, especially on the islands of Rhodes and Corfu. 

At least 19,000 residents and tourists fled Rhodes as the wildfires tour through hotels and resorts on the island.

As NPR reports: 

"The fires struck during peak tourist season in Greece. And while visitors flock to the islands from all over the world, Corfu and Rhodes are especially popular with people from the United Kingdom."

Up to 10,000 British tourists are on Rhodes and many are still trying to get out of the country, but getting to the airport is difficult, never mind finding a flight out. 

NPR again: 

"Some tourists say they had to walk for miles in the heat to reach safety, and local TV footage shows crowds of people walking beneath orange, smoke-filled skies and lying on mattresses in makeshift shelters."

I was also more than a little puzzled when a couple airlines were still flying tourists into Rhodes while tourists who were already there were fleeing fires. 

ITALY 

Heat and powerful storms are the story in Italy.

The southern part of the nation sweltered in record heat, and at least four died in the resulting wildfires. 

Temperatures reached as high as 117 degrees in Sicily. Rome reached 107 degrees, its hottest reading on record for any date. 

Huge hailstones pelted northern Italy. 

About 40 wildfires broke out in Sicily.  The airport in Palermo was temporarily closed because of the nearby fires but has since reopened. 

The heat has turned the Mediterranean Sea into something of a hot tub.  The average surface temperature of the sea reached 83.12 degrees (28.4 C) this week, an all time record high. 

In northern Italy, the hot temperatures interacting with cooler air to the north set off severe thunderstorms, at least one tornado, microbursts and tennis ball sized hail or bigger. One hail stone recovered in northern Italy was 7.89 inches in diameter, the largest hail stone on record for the entire continent of Europe. 

SWITZERLAND

An incredible storm hit the city of La Chaux-de-Fonds, Switzerland and its surroundings northwest of Bern. 

The storm packed winds of 135 mph, which is the equivalent of a category 4 hurricane. Video from the city during the storm looked like such a hurricane.  

One person was killed, several were injured and the area suffered widespread damage to homes, businesses and other buildings. 

The storm was an apparent microburst, which a larger version of a thunderstorm microburst. Macrobursts cover an area at least 2.5 miles in diameter. Winds in them can reach 135 mph, so this Swiss event was definitely a very high end version of this phenomenon. 

There might also have been an embedded tornado. 

 

Flash Flood Risk Dwindling Northern Vermont; South Still Stormy

Radar from the National Weather Service office in 
South Burlington at around 8 am showed lots of rain north
spottier south. Southern Vermont will get in on
downpours and possible severe storms in a few hours. 

UPDATE 2 p.m

The heavy rain in northern Vermont from this morning is departing, and so far I've seen no reports of any real flood damage.

I'm sure there were some very minor washouts or ponding of water here and there, especially north of Route 2, where the heaviest stuff fell. 

The heavy rain was still in the Northeast Kingdom as of 1:45 p.m, but was heading out. 

Behind that are some scattered light showers.  And there might be a few showers or even garden variety thundershowers in the humid air north of Route 4 today,

I'd say northern Vermont can go on for the rest of the day without worrying about any new flash flooding. 

As expected, storms are firing up south of Rutland and White River. A severe thunderstorm watch is up for far southern Vermont.  The chances of a severe thunderstorm in Rutland and Windsor counties is low, but is still a possibility. 

Judging from radar, Bennington and Windham counties in particular are prone to severe storms with potentially damaging wind gusts for the next few hours.  These storms contain torrential rains so flash flooding is also still a risk down that way. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 8:30 AM

The latest batch of heavy rain has arrived, and there's not much change in the forecast from last night. 

However, it's looking a little like Vermont is at least partly threading the needle between heavy rains that hit further west, and severe storms that will hit further south. 

That said, there's still a risk of some localized flash flooding statewide, and a decent shot of a few locally severe storms south. Bottom line: Not the end of the world, but stay on your toes anyway. 

NORTHERN VERMONT 

In northern Vermont, it's mostly turning out to be a steady rain that - as expected -  started near dawn. That steady rain will continue probably into the early afternoon before tapering off.  There could be a few stray showers and mild thundershowers left behind in the north this afternoon, but nothing spectacular. 

So far, the rate of rainfall in Vermont, and the pace of the rain heading at us from New York, isn't overly torrential.

Rainfall in the northern half of the state will probably amount to about an inch.  A real soaker for sure, but not extreme.  A few favored spots will get more.  

Normally, this amount of rain is nothing to worry about, but the ground is so wet, local flash floods and mud slides can get going in today's drencher 

While there's definitely a risk for some flash flooding north today, I don't think it's going to be all that widespread.  Be ready to react to any flash flood warnings that go out, but that might or might not happen. This isn't a new calamity in the making. 

SOUTHERN VERMONT

The rain in southern Vermont was spottier as of 7:30 a.m. And though it may fill in a little bit, the southern half of the state should remain more showery than steady this morning. 

That opens the door to more instability in the air this afternoon, so there's a chance of some severe storms here and there this afternoon. The main threat is locally damaging straight line winds.  There's a very, very low, but not zero chance of a tornado in southeastern Vermont. 

Although there might be some thunder north, the better chance of strong or severe storms is along and south of Route 4.  They'll tend to develop really fast, so there might not be much of an interval between when something is a nothing burger to when it becomes a powerhouse. 

Downpours in any of those thunderstorms would be much more torrential than this morning's drumbeat of rain further north. So that opens the door to possibly a somewhat greater chance of flash floods in southern Vermont this afternoon. 

Again, we're talking about local issues.  One town has a problem, the next town over is fine. 

This system is moving fast, so it should mostly be out of our hair by 6 p.m. or so. 

The risk for severe storms and even a tornado or two increases this afternoon and early evening in western and central Massachusetts, most of New Hampshire and southern Maine, so keep an eye on that if you're heading in that direction. 

LOOKING AHEAD

We have one more shot of excessive rain in Vermont's long parade of flood watches and warnings before we get into a long, welcome spell of cool, dry weather with low humidity.

Friday will be oppressive. It'll at least get close to 90 degrees and the humidity will be awful. 

A cold front will be lurking in Quebec, and it could get close enough to set off some storms Friday evening. 

The front will sink into Vermont Saturday, but there's signs it might get hung up in our area for some time on Saturday.  That would spell the risk of torrential storms training west to east along the front, raising fresh flash flood chances. 

We don't know for sure where that will happen or even if it does at all, but it's something to watch.

Starting Sunday,  welcome to September in August. 

Wednesday Evening Update: ANOTHER Flood Watch In Vermont

A road in Middlesex, Vermont succumbs to flash flooding
early this month. Once again, we have a threat of localized
flash flooding again on Thursday. 

 I feel compelled to give a quick Wednesday evening update since we now have a little more clarity on a flash flood and severe storm threat tomorrow. 

A flood watch - I swear the millionth one this summer - is in effect for all of Vermont from very roughly dawn to dusk. 

As was the case the past few episodes of heavier rain, we have a morning pre-soak followed by the risk of torrential thunderstorms in the afternoon and perhaps very early evening. 

No guarantees, but it's beginning to look like the morning dose of rain will be the main show across northern Vermont. From roughly dawn to early afternoon, it's so far looking like the rain will come down steadily and occasionally heavily. 

This morning and early afternoon burst of rain will probably produce roughly an inch of rain, give or take, with locally higher amounts. 

This normally wouldn't be that much of a problem. But given how saturated soils still are, we'll get more runoff than usual. 

 A few spots north of Route 2 had a thunderstorm Tuesday might to help ensure soils are still sopping wet. (It was pretty squishy underfoot in my yard in St. Albans, Vermont this morning).

If we get any localized flash flooding in northern Vermont, it could start as soon as midmorning.

After the morning batch of rain departs, things get a little iffier.  Conditions will be pretty ripe for new thunderstorms anywhere in Vermont. But it seems at this point anyway that the stronger ones would be in southern and perhaps into parts of central Vermont. 

If there are any afternoon storms, all hazards are in play: Those being: Damaging winds, localized flash floods from torrential rains, hail, and even a very low, but none-zero chance of a tornado again. 

Any flash flooding is dangerous, so heed any warnings. Of course, most of us won't see flash flooding, but it could happen anywhere in the state Thursday. 

The bad weather should be out of here by sunset. The flash flood threat should end before midnight. 

Friday will have its own issues, with oppressive heat and humidity.  Highs will be 85 to 90, which isn't all that bad, but the humidity will put heat indexes into the low and mid 90s.

We have to watch a cold front Saturday as it might briefly stall over Vermont, leading to another heavy rain threat.

After that, the pattern change will complete itself, and we'll have an extended period of cooler than normal weather. After all the humidity we've had since the third week in June, starting Sunday, it will feel like fall has arrived.

Since the humidity will also crash, any rain we get next week should be pretty light. I don't know how long that cool regime will last, but it looks like it could go on for at least a week, if  not more. 

I'll have an update tomorrow morning, of course, with more details on where things are headed.

Phoenix, Arizona: Where Just The Summertime Pavement Can Kill You

Here in Vermont, it was sunny and 85 degrees when I 
walked barefoot across my asphalt driveway. It felt
pretty hot. Had I done the same thing on asphalt in 
Phoenix, Arizona this month, I would have been
hospitalized with third degree burns. 

 Emergency rooms in Arizona have certainly been busy with victims of the extreme heat out there. They also dealing with injuries that seem unimaginable to us northerners: Third degree burns from pavement, asphalt and car seats.  

You can imagine how dangerous it would be if an elderly person fell on asphalt sidewalk or parking lot this month in Phoenix and couldn't get up. 

Even those who can get up quickly are being seriously injured from burns caused by hot pavement. The Arizona Burn Center at Valleywise Health is having an unprecedented business summer.

Says CNN, in an interview with Dr. Kevin Foster, director of burn services at Valleywise Health: 

"Every single one of the 45 beds in the burn center is full, he said, and one-third of patients are people who fell and burned themselves on the ground. There are also burn patients in the ICU and about half of those patients are people burned after falls. "

People are burned by hot objects in Arizona every summer, but this year is much worse due to the persistent, extreme heat in Phoenix and elsewhere in the state.  

The heat has been unrelenting, and that takes a cumulative toll. Every day in Phoenix since June 30 has gotten to or above 110 degrees. This Saturday is forecast to be the first day this month below that level, as the high is "only" expected to reach 109 degrees. 

It's been as hot as 119 degrees in Phoenix this month. Under those conditions, pavement temperatures in the sun can go to 180 degrees or more. 

Says CNN:

"It can take only a 'fraction of a second's get a 'pretty deep burn,' Foster said. For people who have been on the pavement for 10 to 20 minutes, 'the skin is completely destroyed and the damage often goes down deep, meaning it is a third-degree burn.'" 

People with third degree burns need multiple surgeries and will spend weeks or months in a hospital.  They usually face years of reconstructive surgery and therapy. So it's a big deal.  

I'd also have to wonder if your shoes would melt if you walked down a Phoenix sidewalk during the afternoon this time of year. 

Nights have failed to get below 90 degrees in Phoenix since July 9.  Hot nights are even worse for those exposed to heat. People without access to air conditioning don't have an opportunity to lower the body temperature, because nights are too warm. 

Of course, pretty much every house and apartment in Phoenix is air conditioned.  A house without air conditioning in Phoenix is like a house in Vermont without heat. 

However, Phoenix, like most major cities, has a sizable homeless population. The estimated number of homeless people in Phoenix is roughly 6,000. There aren't nearly enough indoor shelter beds to accommodate them all. 

Also, some low income people can't afford to get their air conditioning fixed if it breaks. 

Says CBC radio: 

"As of July 15, at least 18 people have died of heat-associated causes in Phoenix in 2023, according to the Maricopa County Department of Public Health. Another 69 suspected heat deaths are under investigation."

That doesn't include the number of heat deaths in other larger communities like Tucson, Arizona, El Paso, Texas or Las Vegas, Nevada. 

Heat is the leading cause of weather related deaths, more than floods, hurricanes, tornadoes or other scary hazards. 

 

Storms, Flood Threats Continue To Harass Vermont After We Hoped/Thought It Might Be Over

In a still taken from a video, a lightning flash around
midnight in St. Albans, Vermont last night briefly
turns night into day, 

 New storms fired up in and near Vermont yesterday and last night, not causing any harm, but harassing nonetheless.  

And, after we thought we might be done with the severe weather and flash flooding, a new threat of both has arisen for tomorrow. 

Yesterday's isolated storms followed a familiar pattern. They erupted, seemingly as they often do this summer, near Port Henry, New York and and again further north not far from Plattsburgh, New York. 

The Port Henry area storm yesterday did create some penny sized hail and knocked down a few branches. I was kind of intrigued by satellite images of the cirrus blowing off the top of that nearly stationary storm near Port Henry reaching as far as southern Quebec north of New Hampshire. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington kindly responded to an inquiry I made and said this summer has featured consistent southerly air flow up the Champlain Valley. The Adirondacks, especially near Port Henry and Plattsburgh help the air flow converge in those spots, leading to updrafts that create storms. 

Those storms then start to move over Lake Champlain toward Vermont, but tend to fall apart when they encounter the more stable air created by the comparatively cool waters of the lake. 

Last night, a little before midnight or so, a surprise thunderstorm strong enough to prompt a severe thunderstorm warning moved through Franklin County, Vermont.  Here in St. Albans, I didn't notice any strong winds, just a downpour and plenty of lightning. 

I suspect a temperature inversion might have deflected strong thunderstorm wind and prevented them from reaching the ground.  That storm put about 0.75 inches of rain in my unofficial rain gauge, but it was localized enough such that Burlington never saw a drop of rain last night. 

Today should be quiet, though it wouldn't surprise me if one of those areas in eastern New York between Lake Champlain and the Adirondacks pop an isolated storm today. 

THURSDAY

This is the new trouble day, though as of this writing, we don't quite know for sure whether we'll have renewed flash flooding or severe storms. Or, if they do occur, where they'll set up. 

Something called a mesoscale convective system, or MCS by weather geeks, was in Wisconsin and Minnesota this morning. It's basically a big cluster of thunderstorms and these things are common in the Midwest during the summer. 

More times than not, if they affect Vermont at all, these MSC's are going through a weakening trend by the time they make it here.

A familiar map rears its ugly head again. Best chances
for scattered instances of flash flooding tomorrow
appear to be in Vermont, at least according to 
this morning's forecasts. 

Not this one.  It's going to hold together nicely, and create a severe weather threat and/or a flash flood threat in New England, including Vermont tomorrow. 

Who gets what depends on the track and timing of the MCS.  A more northerly route opens the door to severe storms region wide, along with a flash flood risk. 

A slightly more southerly route would continue the risk of flash flooding all over the state, but would tend to keep the severe thunderstorms further south. 

If the best atmospheric dynamics with this come through in the afternoon, that would be the best timing for severe storms. 

 There's some hints that the arrival and departure of this thing might be a little earlier tomorrow than first thought, which might reduce the risk of severe weather and flooding somewhat.  But that's not a guarantee. Forecasts could change. 

Still, it looks like this could actually pose a low but real tornado risk again across southern and central New England, places like central and western Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. 

All of New England has some threat of severe storms tomorrow, with the best chance, at least for now, south of a Rutland, Vermont to Portland, Maine line.  

As of this morning, the best chances of flash floods are focused - sigh - on Vermont. It'll be the drill we've become familiar with. Most people in Vermont will escape flash flooding but a few towns get nailed by washouts, road closures, that type of thing. Like we need any more localized damage.

Once again, expect some changes in this forecast between now and tomorrow. Of course, I'll update!

So the end to our flooding streak has been postponed. The next chance of any trouble would be with a cold front Friday night or Saturday, but so far the chances of flooding with that system look low.

After that, forecasters are still expecting an extended spell of cool and mostly dry weather starting later Saturday or Sunday and continuing into early next week. 

North Carolina Tornado Threatens Nationwide Medication Shortage

Severe tornado damage at a Pfizer plant in 
Rocky Mount, North Carolina last week

A rare for the season EF-3 tornado touched down last week in Rocky Mount, North Carolina might affect you. 

Nobody likes to see a tornado strike homes or businesses, but this one was particularly precarious. 

It destroyed part of a large Pfizer manufacturing plant that makes about 150 different medications. The Rocky Mount plant makes almost 25 percent of sterile injectable drugs used in hospitals. 

The nation already faces a medication and drug shortage, and this twister could make everything worse. 

As the Associated Press reports:

"Wednesday's tornado......ripped up the roof of a Pfizer factor that makes nearly 25 percent of Pfizer's sterile injectable medicines used in U.S. hospitals, according to the drugmaker.

The plant makes drugs for anesthesia, medicines that treat infections and drugs needed for surgeries. The latter are used in surgeries or intensive care units for patients who are pale on ventilators, said Mike Ganio, who studies drug shortages at the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists." 

The Rocky Mount Pfizer facility does not make Pfizer's Covid vaccine or medicines to treat it. 

The tornado mostly wrecked the warehouse part of the sprawling Pfizer facility, which is the size of 24 football fields and employs about 2,000 people.

It's unknown how long it will take for the Pfizer plant to manufacture new products, but the production floor did not suffer that much damage. 

That's potentially a glimmer of good news, reports NBC, because it would be harder to create and install new manufacturing equipment than find warehouse storage for the finished product and supplies. 

The tornado had maximum winds of 150 mph as it traveled more than 16 miles through neighborhoods and industrial areas around Rocky Mount and Battleboro, North Carolina. 

A tornado that strong is rare in North Carolina this time of year.  The state does see intense tornadoes from time to time but they usually strike in the late winter or early spring. 

 

Vermont Still Having Trouble Shaking Nasty Weather

The outer edges of a very severe thunderstorm west of
Plattsburgh, New York Monday after extended clouds
all the way to the skies over St. Albans, Vermont.
That particular storm avoided the Green Mountain
State, so no trouble in northwest Vermont. 

 It happened again on Monday: Vermont was  under threat from severe weather and flash flooding.

Luckily, the outcome wasn't too bad, as the most of the friskiest thunderstorms stayed in New York State. 

Still, it's a little hard on the psyche when you see yet another flash flood warning in Vermont, like we did for a time Monday afternoon in Addison County.  On the plus side, I don't see any reports of actual   flooding from the Middlebury area.

Trees did fall in the town of Addison during the storms, and penny sized hail was spotted up in Barre.

 I watched from my perch in St. Albans as a big storm miss Vermont by a couple dozen miles to my west. That one knocked over a bunch of trees and power lines north and west of Plattsburgh, New York.  

So that's done. 

We get a break today and tomorrow with only isolated, non-severe, non-flooding showers and storms. Almost everybody will stay dry, though. 

Of course, they've changed the forecast for Thursday, as - again - we can't seem to shake the storms in Vermont. 

Sunny, very warm and humid weather that had been forecast Thursday. Now, there's a strong chance that a complex of showers and thunderstorms from the Midwest will target us instead. 

Since we are getting some dry or at least dry-ish days here and there for a change, the flash flood risk from the type of system that would hit us Thursday is diminishing a little. But it's not entirely going away,   

 If a series of downpours hits a particular spot in Vermont Thursday, there could be some renewed flash flood problems. It won't be an extreme risk, and definitely not widespread, but we seem to have gotten used to that drill this summer. 

After a sweltering Friday, we still see signs of an almost autumn like blast from Canada late in the weekend and early next week. Depending on the timing of the cold front, we could see some locally heavy downpours either later Friday or Saturday.

After the cold front goes by, Vermont might find itself in rare national sweet spot.

While most of the nation will still be roasting in horrible heat waves, there's hope we could find ourselves bathed in low humidity and daytime temperatures barely making it into the 70s. 

There's still some question marks, though, as to whether that cool air will bring sunshine, or clouds and light showers. 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Up In Vermont/NY As We Can't Shake Iffy Weather

Satellite photo from Sunday afternoon shows a thunderstorm
over Lake Champlain interrupting an otherwise nice
Sunday. Click on the pic to make it bigger and easier
to see. Once you do that, if you look closely, 
you can see the storm casting a shadow on Chittenden
County. The storm mostly dissipated within an
hour after this photo was taken. 

UPDATE 1 p.m.

A severe thunderstorm watch is up for all of Vermont and much of eastern New York through 8 p.m. as storms fire up.

Local damaging winds and hail are the main threats.

Storms were rapidly firing up in New York and southern Vermont and heading northeastward as of 1 p.m. 

There was already a severe thunderstorm warning in the southeastern Adirondacks as of 1 p.m. 

More warnings might be issued, so keep an ear out for alerts and keep your eye to the sky through the afternoon.

Storms might break out at any time through evening, but I think they are most likely through 5 p.m. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Although the threat of flooding in Vermont has eased somewhat, it remains something of a summer of discontent. 

However, it remains hard to get a truly nice, perfect summer day. Oh sure, we've had parts of summer days that were gorgeous. Even a full day here and there, maybe five. 

But something always goes wrong in the star-crossed summer of 2023.

It floods. It rains. It gets too humid. It gets smoky. It's cloudy. We haven't really had any chilly summer weather yet, but that might be coming in the first week of August.

What we haven't had is long stretches of fine weather. The trend of iffy whether continues apace.  

Take yesterday, for instance.

It's true most of the state really did have a pleasant Sunday.  And the day started pleasantly cool. It got down to 59 degrees in Burlington Sunday morning ending a 27-day streak where we stayed continuously at or above 60 degrees. That's a weirdly long time for such a streak.

But it was supposed to be clear sailing all day. So what were those showers and thunderstorms doing entering parts of the Champlain Valley in the early afternoon?

Most of the day did stay OK even there. The storms actually dissipated as they entered Chittenden County, but they held together in Addison County. No harm done this time, but they did interrupt a pleasant day. Story of 2023.

Today's another example. 

TODAY

Forecasts from a couple days ago indicated a gorgeous Monday. Now,  not so much.   We're back to the threat of severe storms this afternoon.  The threat of new flooding is quite low, but, sigh, not zero. 

A weak weather system, combined with some particular atmospheric arrangements, will interrupt our nice weather this afternoon. 

Part of the problem is something called an "elevated mixed layer" or EML.  An EML is essentially a layer of dry air pretty high up there. It initially acts as a cap that stops the humid updrafts that create showers and storms. 

Sounds like a savior to preserve nice weather, no?  Um, no. Eventually, the updrafts bust through the EML, and it's like a dam breaking. The updrafts suddenly tower up violently, and you end up with strong, maybe even damaging wind gusts and on some occasions, large hail.

That's what we're facing today. 

Now, there's no need to panic.  Most of us will NOT see a severe storm. But enough ingredients are there to create isolated instances of damaging winds or large hail.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center only has most of Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe storms, which is only level 1 of 5 on the alert scale. I do suspect they might, maybe upgrade us level 2, which is slight risk. 

Normally, today's storms would fall far short of being able to produce any flash flooding. But the ground is so saturated, it's possible -  though unlikely - there could be an isolated trouble spot with a washout or something like that. 

The bottom line is you will see just scattered reports of damaging winds, and maybe hail here and there in Vermont today. Maybe an isolated flash flood, but fortunately, I'm not holding my breath on that one. Many of us will see non-severe thunderstorms. So our gorgeous Monday morning will turn into an iffy afternoon

TUESDAY

The sort of good news is that today's activity will sort of steal Tuesday's thunder, if you will, from storm chances tomorrow. Todays' weather will stabilize the atmosphere, so there will only be a few scattered showers and storms. Nothing severe. But again, an imperfect weather day.  

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY

We'll be faced with building heat and humidity. I'm unsure if we'll make it to 90 degrees any of those days, but heat indexes will probably be in the low to mid 90s by Thursday and Friday. 

The reason I question whether we'll hit 90 is the seemingly ever present risk of showers and storms. No details are available yet about the timing, number or strength of any of those storms.

AUTUMNAL HINT, WITH SMOKE AND RAIN?

Long range forecasts are kind of all over the place at the moment,  but they're strongly hinting at a cold front this coming weekend that might feel......a bit autumnal. 

Not frigid, mind you, but a lot chillier than we've been used over the past five or six weeks.  Unfortunately, those same hints suggest unsettled weather and wildfire smoke. The fires in Quebec have tamped down somewhat, which explains our bluer skies recently. 

But western Canada is still ablaze.  If the weather pattern changes the way some forecasters think it will, then we'll have to deal with smoke and haze again. The only saving grace would be that the western smoke will be less likely to hug the ground, so air quality wouldn't suffer quite as much. 

All of this long range stuff is no guarantee.  Forecasts a week out very often change quite a bit, so don't hang your hat on it. 

Nova Scotia: From Burning Down To Drowning In Epic Flood

Nova Scotia, Canada is the latest place to suffer 
through severe flooding. Four people are missing after
up to 10 inches of rain fell in a day. 

 Remember back in May and early June, when Nova Scotia was burning down, destroying something like 200 houses and sending smoke down the United States East Coast?

I suppose the "good" news is the Nova Scotia fires are out. 

However, there isn't any truly good news coming out of Nova Scotia. They've just had a flood that is at least as bad, if not worse the the huge inundation we in Vermont just experienced.

At last report, four people, including two children, were missing in the flood.

As Reuters reports: 

"The storm, which started on Friday, dumped more than...10 inches on some parts in just 24 hours - the same amount that usually lands in three months. The resulting floods washed away roads, weakened bridges and swamped buildings."

Rain continued on Saturday but is finally tapering off in Atlantic Canada. 

It has been a bad year for weather disasters in Canada. Says Reuters:

"The flooding was the latest weather-related calamity to pound Canada this year. Wildfires have already burned a record number of hectares, sending clouds of smoke into the United States. Earlier this month, heavy rains caused floods in several eastern U.S. states."

It seems like Nova Scotia, a beautiful coastal province that is a magnet for tourists, can't catch a break.  As NPR reports:

"'Some of the same residents that were impacted by the wildfires are now dealing with the flooding, Halifax Councillor Lisa Blackburn told NPR."

 On top of that, Hurricane Fiona caused extensive damage in Nova Scotia, along with Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland last September. 

The same weather pattern that afflicted Vermont with floods is essentially responsible for the Nova Scotia floods. That weather pattern is breaking down, which shifted the heavy rains associated with it further east, into Atlantic Canada. The fire hose of wet, humid air slammed into Nova Scotia. 

All these weather crises in Nova Scotia are consistent with climate change. The hurricane last September maintained its strength as far north as Canada because unusually warm Atlantic waters fed it. 

The fires in May were encouraged by a very early snow melt and record high temperatures during the spring, which dried things out. 

The rainfall Friday in Nova Scotia was probably enhanced by now record high ocean temperatures off the coast.  Warmer than normal air is more efficient at picking up moisture from those toasty Atlantic waters helping to encourage the extreme downpours. 

Video: Drone view of Bedford, Nova Scotia. Click on this link to view or click on image below: 

Another Disaster Declaration In Vermont: This Is A Cold One

Ash tree leaves in Huntington, Vermont killed by a May 18 freeze

All of Vermont was declared a disaster area on Friday. 

No, not that one. We're talking about the mid-May freeze that wrecked a lot of the state's agriculture way before the first drops of flooding rains fell at the beginning of this month. 

As WPTZ-TV reports, the disaster declaration from the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture means eligible farmers can be considered for Farm Service Agency emergency loans to help them bounce back from the deep freeze that damaged a variety of crops on the night May 17-18.

"This declaration is important as our farmers try to recover after the May freeze,'" said Vermont Agriculture Secretary Anson Tebbetts in a statement. "This designation will offer more resources to those that were hit hard by this weather event."

Farmers have eight months to apply for the emergency loans.  

Gov. Phil Scott is also seeking an agricultural disaster designation for this month's extensive flooding.

Under a separate Federal Emergency Management Agency umbrella, Caledonia, Chittenden, Lamoille, Rutland, Orange, Washington, Windham and Windsor counties have all been declared disaster areas due to this month's flooding. .  More counties might be added to that disaster list. 

More Scattered Vermont Flooding Friday; Beautiful Sky Heralds End To Rain Nightmare

After flash flooding caused damage in Enosburgh Falls,
Vermont Friday, this peaceful scene greeted 
residents as the storms departed. 

 As expected, locally torrential rains triggered renewed flooding in a few spots in Vermont Friday, but that's pretty much over, and I think we can start breathing a sigh of relief.  

Most of Friday's trouble was in northwestern Vermont, which had been mostly spared all the flood grief we've been through for the past two weeks. 

Flooding was concentrated in and around Enosburgh Falls and Richford. Two sections of Route 105 were temporarily closed. One was in the Richford and East Richford area. The other was near the Dairy Center just north of Enosburgh Falls. 

Route 108 just above the dam in Enosburgh Falls was also closed for a time The basement of the Enosburgh Falls Village Offices was flooded and being pumped out Friday evening. 

Other flash flood warnings went up in parts of Addison and Rutland counties, and I'm sure there were a few washouts here and there win that neck of the woods.  So far though, no reports of super serious damage. 

Perhaps as a sign from the heavens that the two week old flood siege in Vermont might be ending, the sky over the Enosburgh area turned spectacular after the flood. As black clouds rumbled with thunder to the northeast, brilliant sun cutting in from the west lit up the trees and farm fields in bright electric green.

Brilliant rainbows lit up near the mountains. 

Indeed, for a welcome change, there are very few signs of trouble in the Vermont weather forecast. 

WHAT'S AHEAD

Today will be delightfully cool, with many of us not even making it out of the 70s.  There will be some sunshine, but also the risk of showers

For once, there's no need to freak out over those chances of rain. For most of us, any showers will be light and brief. The "hardest hit" towns today might see a quick downpour that could drop almost a quarter inch of rain - far too little to set off any new flood worries. So we're good. 

Patches of fog glow in the sun on hillsides near Enosburgh
Falls, Vermont Friday after a flooding thunderstorm
departed the area. 

Tonight will be probably be the coldest night for many of us since the third week in June. Almost everybody will get below 60 degrees. It will be a wonderful sleeping night. 

No complaints about Sunday. Expect sunshine and temperatures in the low 80s with manageable humidity. Perfect! 

The only trouble spot I see on the weather horizon is Tuesday. But I'm not too worried. We have a pretty typical mid-summer weak cold front coming in, which will probably set off a few showers and storms. 

I suppose there might be an isolated wind or water problem with Tuesday's weather, but it shouldn't be nearly as worrisome as all the recent storms we had.

It'll be on the warm side all week, with temperatures possibly reaching the upper 80s for the second half of the week.  

Long range forecasts are hinting at - but not guaranteeing - some actual cooler than normal temperatures as we open the month of August. If that happens, we'll be an exception. Most of the rest of the United States will continue baking in hot - sometimes dangerous hot weather 

1 PM Friday Vermont Flood Potential Update

 Well, we got through this morning's rain without too much trouble here in Vermont, but unfortunately, the fun is just beginning.  

NOAA says area inside the pink cloud is at the greatest
risk for local flash floods this afternoon and evening.
Notice Vermont is entirely within the pink cloud. 

As advertised, we're in for another afternoon and evening of flash flood risk, and the storms that might cause these issues were just firing up as of 12:30 p.m. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center put out an update at noon, stating that the places the highest risk of flash floods over western New England, including all of Vermont and most of New Hampshire.

As of noon, conditions were becoming more and more favorable for torrential downpours. The intensity and size of the small scale downpours we saw on radar in the noon hour will keep expanding. Sunshine in many areas between the developing storms is adding to the instability in the air, which will help sustain the storms. 

Some will form into somewhat larger, organized clusters, and that's where you'll find the most trouble today. Too bad we don't yet know in advance who the lucky devils are who get these "larger, organized clusters."  Or, the scientific term I came up for these, "fuster clucks."

Most, but not all of the developing  storms seem like they are moving, and not lingering over one spot, at least for the most part. But their movement is painfully slow, and that state of affairs should continue through the afternoon and early evening. 

I've already seen one small, but heavy downpour on the Champlain Islands about halfway between Burlington and Plattsburgh, New York pretty much sit there for about an hour as of this writing. Were that to happen over areas already slammed by flash floods, we'd be having some real issues now.  That's the risk we might be facing through this evening. 

Some favored locations might end up with two or three or even a little more inches of rain today. That won't be everybody, as most of us will see less. A few of us might see hardly any additional rain at all.

But you know the drill. Any hilly area seeing that kind of heavy rainfall in a short time will have problems, given how wet the soil is.

Consider this: Sunday evening, a thunderstorm dumped two to three inches of rain on Richmond and Bolton. The road damage from the resulting flash floods was very impressive. It seemed almost every dirt road in Richmond sustained at least a little damage, if not a total washout.

Had soil conditions not been so soggy, I'm sure the damage there would have been much less from Sunday's storms. 

I'm not suggesting it'll necessarily be Richmond under the gun today, but it could be any other town near the Green Mountains or Taconics. 

With today's rains, main rivers shouldn't flood again, but they will  remain high, turbulent and muddy for this time of year. 

There's still some risk that besides the flash flooding, a few storms could become severe, too. Though not widespread, a couple of the storms could produce damaging winds.  So we'll have to watch out for scattered tree damage and power outage issues today, too. 

But the main risk is still flash flooding.  I'm still thinking things could get as bad as they were Sunday evening, when we had several reports of flash flooding. This is always luck of the draw, so we still don't know who is under the gun this afternoon and how many people that involves.

Today is still looking like the last flash flood threat in Vermont for awhile. We've basically been under the gun since the month opened, so it will be wonderful to get this out of our hair. 

Just stay weather aware through this evening. If you receive a flash flood warning in your area, make sure to skedaddle immediately if you are in a flood prone spot.

And don't drive over flooded roads. Vermont has been incredibly lucky through all these flash floods in which nobody has died in their cars. Let's keep it that way. Vehicles are the most common place for deaths in flash floods. Lest