Another Vermont Break: Severe Storms, Flooding Mostly Didn't Materialize. So, What's Next?N

Stormy, volatile looks skies over St. Albans, Vermont
last evening, but severe weather and flash flooding
mostly did not materialize in the Green Mountain
State on Sunday, despite forecasts to the contrary

Yesterday, we went through our second threat of severe, damaging weather in Vermont within three days, and once again, we largely escaped trouble.  

Maybe I feel a little like the Boy Who Cried Wolf, but not really. First of all, we should be grateful there wasn't much in the way of damaging storms or high water. Secondly, weather almost always surprises, despite our nation's supposed meteorological prowess. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

 I also think National Weather Service forecasting has deteriorated a little thanks to Trump's DOGE cuts to this critically important agency, but I'm still waiting on the studies that prove it. This is not a criticism of the meteorologists working at the NWS. It's a criticism of the government that's running it. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

There were a couple trouble spots last night. The National Weather Service had to issue a flash flood warning for the Green Mountains roughly between Rutland and White River Junction. Numerous small roads off of Route 4 near Killington became impassable overnight due to washouts and flooding. Up to four inches of rain was reported in the area. 

A flood advisory was still in effect early this morning over in northern New Hampshire. 

The rain was substantial in northern Vermont, but definitely less than feared. I don't have much in the way of reports yet, but I'm sure forecasts of over an inch of rain near the Canadian border came true. At least in a few spots. But the localized three inch totals probably didn't happen

There were no severe thunderstorms Sunday in Vermont that I'm aware of. I think the skies were too cluttered with clouds and showers during the morning and afternoon to produce the storms. Temperatures across much of central and northern Vermont held in the low to mid 70s under the clouds, not the 80s that had been predicted.

That meant less energy and less instability for severe storms. Almost all the severe weather stayed clustered in the Pennsylvania and Ohio, and the Mid-Atlantic states. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Now that our Sunday storm is done, we can look forward to some decent weather for the next couple of days before the next system arrives later in the week.

We'll go with partly sunny skies after clouds clear out this morning.  Broader valleys will be sunniest this afternoon as a few instability clouds litter the blue skies over the Green Mountains. Highs will be i the 70s. Tomorrow will pretty much be a carbon copy to today. 

We'll start getting back into the clouds and shower risks on Wednesday, but the day won't be a washout. Highs will reach the 70s to around 80.

Thursday looks like an interesting day from a meteorological perspective, but - fingers crossed - I suspect Vermont might dodge more bullets. No promises yet, but so far, it looks OK. 

A pretty strong storm  for this time of  year- one that you usually see in the winter, not summer - should originate around Colorado or Wyoming tomorrow. It will race east to a spot somewhere near Minnesota or Wisconsin on Wednesday. Then it will continue blasting generally eastward, arriving in southeastern Ontario or southern Quebec Thursday. 

The storm seems almost guaranteed to bring a nasty swath of severe thunderstorms and maybe tornadoes in the Midwest Wednesday and Mid-Atlantic States Thursday. 

On this path, Vermont would be in the sweet spot. We'd be close enough to the storm center so that the severe storms wouldn't get quite this far north. The heaviest rain would fall in Quebec. And besides, whether you're in Quebec or Vermont, the storm will blast through so quickly that we wouldn't get enough rain to create much flooding. 

I do give a caveat, as there is a risk some severe storms could sneak into Vermont, especially the south, but so far, so good. 

The storm will probably give us a decent dousing of rain. And since it will be an unusually strong storm, gusty non-thunderstorm winds might bring down a few isolated trees, branches or power lines. 

This is all early guesses. I'll have more when we get closer to the event. 

We're falling into a cool, unsettled weather pattern that will probably last until near the end of the month. Such a pattern features somewhat below normal temperatures most days. It also features frequent chances of showers, but overall rainfall after Thursday shouldn't really be all that heavy. 

On Flood Anniversary, Vermont Risk Of Flash Flooding Increases A Bit, Still Not Nearly As Dire As Last 2 Years

Parts of Vermont and northeast New York got a slight
bump up in the risk level of severe storms. Earlier
forecasts had us in the dark green marginal risk
meaning isolated instances of damaging winds.
It's now "slight" meaning scattered instances, not
just isolated cases of bad storm winds. 

UPDATE 1 PM THURSDAY

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has increased the risk level for flash flooding in Vermont this afternoon and evening. 

Instead of a marginal risk of isolated instances of flash flooding, (level 1 out of 4 risk) we're at what is known as slight risk, which is level 2 out of 4 in the risk categories.

This means instead of just a 5 percent chance or so of seeing flash flooding within 25 miles of your location, there is now a 15 percent chance or even somewhat better than that chance of seeing flooding in that radius.

This is because the developing storms are slow movers. We could see pockets of two to four inches of rain in a few spots. 

Flash flooding could happen anywhere around Vermont today, , but I still think the highest chance of flash flooding is in the Northeast Kingdom, where there have been local downpours all morning. 

Ominously, a flood warning already had already been issued around the town of Orleans in the Northeast Kingdom

I'll emphasize that we're still NOT going to see anything nearly as widespread or destructive as we did on July 10-11 last year or the year before. 

Most of us will be just fine today and tonight, and most of us will still see much less than two inches of rain.  An inch of rain, if you manage to get that, won't cause any flood issues. 

Updated risk map increases the flash flood threat in
Vermont a bit to slight, level two out of four on the
risk scale, as you can see below, it was earlier
just marginal, a level one out of four on the risk scale,

But I do think there will be some scattered areas of trouble in Vermont today. This could be the third year in a row with flood issues on this date. 

Stay tuned to your weather radar through the day and into the evening to receive warnings of local flash flooding or spots where severe thunderstorms could trigger damaging winds. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

I guess July 10 and 11 have become a weather tradition in Vermont. 

It seems either something really bad happens, like the big floods of July 10, 2023 and 2024, or everything is fine, but something interesting happens with the weather. 

Not every July 10 and 11 is weather weird, of course. Historically, most of them are pretty routine, like any date of the year. But the dates often bring at least something vaguely noteworthy. 

The chilliest temperature of July, 2022 in Burlington came on July 10.  The low of 50 was not all that cold for July, but is still the coolest July temperature since 2015. July 10, 2020 was the hottest day of the month, with a high of 95 and a low of 75 in Burlington.

When I was a kid, July 11, 1976 stands out as one of the worst local flash floods I've ever seen, striking parts of Rutland County. Going way back to 1888, it snowed like hell for a time on the Green Mountain summits. 

As mentioned in my Wednesday post, today won't be a repeat of the hell we went through in 2023 and 2024. 

Today will just bring us some interesting doses of showers and thunderstorms.  Some of which seem destined to cause local spots of trouble here and there in the Green Mountain State.   So you'll need to stay on your toes. 

THIS MORNING'S SET UP

An area of heavy rain that caused flash flooding in the Mid-Atlantic States last evening moved into southeast New England today, where flash flooding from up to six inches of rain hit earlier this morning 

We don't have to worry about those annoying downpours,  as they will keep moving off to the northeast off the New England coast.

But here in Vermont, it was already a bit interesting as of 8 a.m. There were already some widely scattered pinpoint, slow moving downpours around the state. 

That's a hint right there we will have no trouble generating a bunch of showers and storms during the day today. It's hard to know exactly how each storm will develop and move, but what follows is a decent guess. 

Flash flood risk in Vermont is still marginal, meaning at
most isolated instances os flash floods. The yellow areas
have a somewhat higher risk of flash floods. 

Breezes going up the slopes of the Green Mountains should generate storms along those mountains. Maybe pretty early in the day, before noon.  Those should then drift eastward into the Northeast Kingdom and the Connecticut Valley.

The rest is complicated. The storms could generate outflow gusts that will interact with other weak disturbances coming in from New York State, which would then drift eastward into the Champlain Valley later this afternoon. 

 Eventually, they'll head through the Green Mountains into the eastern Vermont toward evening.

Other random storms could pop up just about anywhere else during the day and evening today.  

Most of the storms won't be super awful. However, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of Vermont and northeast New York  to a level two slight risk level for severe storms, which means scattered instances of severe storms, Until earlier this morning, the risk forecast was lower with only a marginal risk of isolated instances of severe storms.  

If severe storms form, they'll produce damaging winds in a few spots. There's also a risk of damaging hail, but that risk is pretty low. 

The storms will also move sluggishly.   With heavy downpours. If you're unlucky enough to have a storm stall over year, or get hit by several of them, there could be a local flash flood problem. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is still watching the current marginal risk of local flash floods.  

As of today, it would take probably two inches of rain within three hours to start flash flooding in most parts of Vermont.  A few isolated places in the state could see up to three inches in that time frame, hence the small risk of those flash floods,

I'll emphasize that the vast majority of us will see much less than three inches of rain today, which is why we won't have any widespread problems with high water. Still, take any flash flood warning seriously. If you're under such a warning, stick to high ground. Don't drive over a flooded road, as it could be washed away or undermined.

A flash flood could develop anywhere, but I'd say they'd happen in the Green Mountains or Northeast Kingdom. 

You'll want to have a weather  radio with you today, or at least some way to receive severe thunderstorm or flash flood warnings, just in case. 

But again, Ill stress that meteorologists expect nothing close to the scale we saw last year and the year before.  

HEAT

It's humid out there, and it will stay that way. The little boundary in New York that's helping to set off today's storms isn't really a cold front. It will have gone by us tomorrow, so we expect storms to be few and far between on Friday.

Temperatures are  going to go up again, too. The clouds and storms should hold temperatures today in the upper 70s eastern Vermont to low 80s west.  Starting tomorrow and on through at least next Wednesday, daily highs in Vermont should get into the mid and upper 80s. With a few 90 degree readings thrown in here and there.

The humidity will stay high, so nights will be stuffy too.  Not a good week coming up if you don't have air conditioning, I'm afraid.

Given the heat and humidity, there's a chance of a scattered storm or two each afternoon and evening, but most places will be dry most of the time. The best chances of storms at this point look like they'll be around later Sunday and maybe Monday.  

As Expected, Tornadoes, Storms Spread Havoc Across The South, Caps An Extraordinary U.S, Tornado Year

Screen grab from Storm Chasing Channel video of
a tornado shredding trees Saturday in Mississippi

 At least two people died and damage is widespread from Texas to the Carolinas as the widely forecast Saturday severe weather outbreak unfortunately materialized.  

As of this morning there were at least 41 reports of tornadoes, mostly across eastern Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

One person died in a tornado south of Houston, and a likely tornado claimed another life in Mississippi. 

Video showed a large tornado near Bude, Mississippi that unroofed several homes. Another video by the Storm Chasing Channel's Scott Peake shows the same tornado crossing a highway and shredding trees around a parked pickup truck. 

A likely tornado hit downtown Athens, Alabama overnight, tearing the roof off a court house and spreading debris through the streets. 

The storms moved into the Carolinas Sunday morning.

Flash flooding hit parts of western North Carolina early today in an area still reeling from the extreme floods from Hurricane Helene in September. This morning's flooding wasn't remotely as bad as that, but this region doesn't need more bad weather news. 

Up to four inches of rain fell in some of the steep terrain in those North Carolina mountains. 

During the busiest travel time of the year, storms were mostly responsible for 15,000 canceled or delayed flights over the weekend, according to FlightAware.  Most of the airports where the delays and cancellation originated were in the path of the southern storms. 

After the severe storms end later today, forecasters say there's little chance of additional widespread severe storms and tornadoes for at least a week and probably more, as colder air floods into much of the United States. 

A cold air funnel begins to form over St. Albans, Vermont
in a non-severe thunderstorm on June 9.  This was a type of
spin that is not associated with tornadic thunderstorms
and these tend not to be dangerous.

This year has been quite a year for tornadoes in the U.S. Through November, no fewer than 1,762 tornadoes were confirmed, which is the highest number since the epic twister year of 2004.  That year, 1,813 tornadoes were reported in the U.S. 

The number of death in tornadoes this year was 52, which is bad, but pretty low considering how many tornadoes spun up, and how many of them were pretty strong. 

For comparison, there were 83 U.S. tornado deaths in 2023, with 1,321 twisters being reported that year. 

Of the 24 weather and climate disasters in the U.S. this year that cost over $1 billion in damage, six were tornado outbreaks and a handful of others included some tornadoes in the mix.

NBC News reports one odd note about 2024 tornadoes, and that's the propensity for strong tornadoes with landfalling hurricanes.

Most hurricanes that make landfall in the U.S. do spin off some twisters, but most of those are relatively weak with top winds of up to 110 mph. Fewer than 1 percent of tornadoes associated with hurricanes have an EF-3 rating, which means destructive winds of 136 mph or more. 

But four of the five hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. this year produced EF-3 tornadoes. Hurricane Milton, which hit Florida in October, sent a swarm of dozens of tornadoes through the state. 

This year also continued a trend toward more eastern tornadoes. True, the traditional "tornado alley" in states like Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska were hit hard, but there were areas of pretty weird activity in the Northeast. 

New York had 32 tornadoes in 2024, breaking the single-year record for twisters of 25, set in 1992.

Right here in Vermont, there were no confirmed tornadoes in 2024, but some close misses. On June 23, tornado warnings were issued in parts of central Vermont due to rotating thunderstorms and reported wall clouds, but no confirmed twisters touched down in the Green Mountain State.

There was a tornado that day in Dublin, New Hampshire, about ten miles east of the Vermont border. 

On July 10, a tornado dissipated in New York state not far from the Vermont border, and a funnel cloud was spotted over Bridport. 

A tornado struck Lyme, New Hampshire on July 16, and its path started just a couple miles east of the Vermont border.  

Vermont 1 p.m Wednesday Update: Severe Storm Watch Likely Southern Vermont, Storms Developing

Skies over St. Albans darkening as of 12:45 p.m today
as thunderstorms approach. A few more places in
Vermont today will lose some trees, branches and
power lines, and there might be isolated instances'
of flash flooding. Today is the last day of 
potentially damaging storms for awhile. 

 As expected thunderstorms were rapidly developing in eastern New York State as of 12:30 today, and some of those will carry the risk of damaging wind gusts in southern and possibly eastern Vermont this afternoon.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says they'll likely issue a severe thunderstorm watch for much of western New England and eastern New York, and that would probably include southern Vermont. 

A batch of non-severe but growing storms was entering the northwest corner of Vermont as of 12:30 p.m. It was starting to thunder in St. Albans, Vermont at 12:45 p.m. 

Some of those might intensify into stronger cells in the next few hours. But damage from these, if it occurs, will probably be fairly isolated.

Those northern storms will be carrying torrential downpours, and could set off isolated spots of flash flooding, given how wet the soil is. 

The storms developing in the Albany, New York Capitol District area look meaner than the ones further north. Those should enter Bennington and Rutland counties within the next couple hours and continue across southern Vermont into New Hampshire.

A severe thunderstorm warning was already in effect for far western Bennington County as of 1 p.m. 

Those will ones to definitely look out for.  Some of them almost certainly will contain strong gusty winds and torrential downpours. Not all towns in southern Vermont will have severe storms, but a few places might lose some trees or power lines. 

Pay attention to the weather and possible warnings all afternoon. I'd abandon plans for boating on Lake Champlain for the day.  

This won't be a super widespread event, but we will have spots of trouble in Vermont this afternoon and early evening. 

The great news is we expect no more storminess or dangerous weather after today at least through Monday and quite possibly beyond that. 

Quick Monday Morning Update, Surprise Showers, Heat And A Storm/Downpour Risk

 Guess what? more rain. 

When your short on traffic cones because there are so
many damaged roads in Vermont, you use what you
 can. This goofy deer toy alerts people that 
part of this stretch of Texas Hill Road between
Hinesburg and Huntington, Vermont is washed out. 
More locally torrential storms are possible today
and tomorrow, leading to the risk of isolated, local
incidents of additional flash flooding. 

It can't seem to stop raining in northern Vermont, at least not yet.

A somewhat unexpected batch of showers moved through most of the northern half of the state today. They were far, far too light to cause any further flood damage, but it was just another example of how the rain keeps coming lately. 

Unlike last summer, the wet weather will end, as a big pattern change is coming. But it will take a few days.

More on that in a moment.

Right now, we're on the northern edge of another heat dome, this one bringing record heat to parts of the East Coast. 

Since we're on the edges of this heat dome, we'll be plenty hot and humid, but the door is also wide open for weather disturbances to scoot through.

So it is today. And tomorrow. It's always a little hard to tease out exactly when and where thunderstorms will fire up, and how many will get going. But suffice it to say, we have a decent chance of more torrential storms today. But they'll be hit and miss. 

Before I go on, I'll emphasis we're NOT in for another round of widespread flash flooding like we were last week. If we have any new trouble, it will be widely scattered. The only reason why there's any worry at all is that things are so wet and unstable in the ground from last week that a local torrential thunderstorm could cause new trouble. 

 Since yesterday forecasters have slightly upped the chances of strong thunderstorms and locally torrential downpours today and tomorrow. 

TODAY

Today's storms, as usual, will be hit and miss. A weather disturbance bumping into the hot, humid air over us is enough to trigger some afternoon and evening activity. 

There could be a storm or two with damaging wind gusts thrown into the mix. The best chance of that happening is south and west of Interstate 89, but even there, the risk of severe weather is on the low side. 

The somewhat bigger threat this afternoon and tonight is the torrential downpours. Those will be isolated incidents, too. But they could happen anywhere in Vermont.  But NOAA's Weather Prediction Center puts the chance of very isolated flash flooding in the Green Mountain State from about Route 2 north. 

TUESDAY

Another weather disturbance, once again plowing into our to, humid air will bring another chance of torrential storms, a few of which could be severe. There could be isolated damaging winds anywhere in Vermont, with this morning's forecasts giving the best chance to far northwestern Vermont and on into New York.

In fact, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center gives a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief spinup twister once again, this time from the Champlain Valley westward into New York. I wouldn't hold my breath on that one, but it's still there. 

Any storm that does get going could have torrential rains Tuesday and Tuesday night. You know the drill by now. Isolated instances of flash flooding could crop up again. Depending on how persistent and heavy any storms get.

With or without storms, both today and tomorrow will be oppressively hot and humid.  I'll need to repeat my warning here to not overdo it with flood cleanup.  These are conditions that can cause heat stroke if you're physically working too hard outdoors. 

WELCOME TRANSITION

At least a temporary weather pattern change will help us in Vermont a great deal. The beginning of it will be marked by a cold front Wednesday.  More showers and storms will form with it, but so far, nothing wild is expected. Stay tuned.

For a few days starting Thursday, we'll be in more of a northwest flow.  That means mostly dry, seasonable weather with low humidity and much more comfortable sleeping nights. 

We'll get a couple more cold fronts through early next week. But they'll be weak as they come in from the north and won't have much moisture to work with. The days will still be mostly warm - in the low 80s, since the air coming from Canada is pretty toasty by their standards. 

I'm not sure how long the dry break in the weather will last, but however long it does linger, we'll definitely enjoy it! 

Plenty Of Tree Damage, Flash Flooding In Wake Of Vermont Tornado-Warned Storms. Did Any Touch Down?

For what it's worth, interesting wind shift Sunday in
a tornado-warned storm in the southern end of 
Hinesburg, Vermont. Here, screen grab at 2:12
pm, judging by tilt of the tree, wind is 
coming in from the southwest. ....

As expected, Sunday turned out to be a wild day in parts of Vermont, with tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings flying.   

Most of the state got through Sunday with no trouble at all. It seems like the middle of the Green Mountain State took the brunt of the weather.  

While there was definitely wind damage, some of the biggest trouble Sunday stemmed from flash flooding. 

Sunday's two most intense storms - both of which carried tornado warnings -  hit pretty much the same areas in central Vermont, touching off tree damage, power outages and flash flooding 

Here's what I saw. 

STORM #1

The National Weather Service in South Burlington at 2:07 p.m. Sunday issued a tornado warning. for an area around Monkton, Starksboro and Huntington, and extended the tornado warning to areas around Waterbury, Waitsfield and Montpelier at 2:28 p.m.

...... Second screen grab, from just one minute later at
2:13 p.m. shows more intense wind and rain with
the wind now coming out of the east to southeast. This
is north of where the storm rotation was, but it's possible
that rotation influenced wind direction away from it.

There was one area of Monkton where trees were reported down.  I was in the southern end of Hinesburg at the time, an area covered by the tornado warning. 

I definitely did not see a tornado, as I was a little bit north of where the storm rotation was. But the area I was in at the Cedar Knoll Country Club experienced gusty west winds, followed quickly by even stronger southeast winds and torrential rains. 

That was potentially influenced by some sort of circulation a little to the south of me, or it could have been simply the orientation of downbursts. 

After the storm I traveled down Route 116 through Starksboro where if a tornado existed it would have crossed. At that particular point along Route 116 the only damage I saw was a few branches down and some minor flash flooding. 

STORM #2

Later in the afternoon, a fairly unimpressive looking storm in eastern New York intensified as it splashed ashore on the Vermont side of Lake Champlain.   

It developed torrential rains and gusty winds where I was in South Burlington and Shelburne around 4 p.m., then intensified further as it moved east. At 4:07 and 4:12 p.m., the National Weather Service issued a pair of severe thunderstorm warnings for a zone extending from central Chittenden County all the way to areas around Morrisville, Waterbury, Worcester, Montpelier and Johnson. 

That severe thunderstorm warning in a broad area around Waterbury was renewed at 4:43 p.m. Meteorologists at this point must have been beginning to see signs of rotation because they added the following sentences to this new severe storm warning: "Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms." 

At 4:51 p.m., a tornado warning was issued for an area in and around Waterbury. Around that time, numerous trees were reported uprooted or snapped off at Little River State Park in Waterbury, which was in the middle of the tornado warning zone.  

 From what I can tell, the damage patterns reported didn't warrant the National Weather Service going out for a look see. So for now, we can conclude we had rotation, but no actual tornadoes with this episode.  Close but no cigar. Though if something changes, I'll update you.

FLASH FLOODING

Those two intense storms hit roughly the same areas. Both storms contained ferocious downpours. There were quite a few damage reports. I saw some flash flooding on French Hill in Williston, and it goes worse as the storms reached peak intensity further east. 

Torrential rains touched off some flash flooding on a very
flood prone spot on Williston Road in South Burlington.
As the storm moved east, it causes much worse
flash flooding in the Green Mountains especially
near Stowe, Worcester and Elmore 

Parts of the Bolton access road were damage, as was Route 100 between Waterbury and Stowe.  Part of Route 12 in Worcester was closed. 

Part of Route 14 in Hardwick was also shut down due to high water. A bridge washed out on Elmore Mountain Road, and other road damage was seen around Elmore and Worcester. 

In Stowe, Stowe Hollow, North Hollow, Moss Glen Falls roads and others in town were damaged and in many cases impassable.  

Damage from flooding in Vermont Sunday was definitely worse than wind or potential tornado damage.

OUTLOOK

Much calmer today in Vermont. Today was cloudy and showery across much of Vermont, though some afternoon sun broke out in the northwest. It's been a refreshingly cool one after all the humidity we've had lately.   

After a bright and much warmer Tuesday, the next chance of severe weather comes with some weather fronts Wednesday. The prospect for bad storms Wednesday is still really iffy, and so far, trends have been moving away from a severe risk, so fingers crossed!  

Storms, Flood Threats Continue To Harass Vermont After We Hoped/Thought It Might Be Over

In a still taken from a video, a lightning flash around
midnight in St. Albans, Vermont last night briefly
turns night into day, 

 New storms fired up in and near Vermont yesterday and last night, not causing any harm, but harassing nonetheless.  

And, after we thought we might be done with the severe weather and flash flooding, a new threat of both has arisen for tomorrow. 

Yesterday's isolated storms followed a familiar pattern. They erupted, seemingly as they often do this summer, near Port Henry, New York and and again further north not far from Plattsburgh, New York. 

The Port Henry area storm yesterday did create some penny sized hail and knocked down a few branches. I was kind of intrigued by satellite images of the cirrus blowing off the top of that nearly stationary storm near Port Henry reaching as far as southern Quebec north of New Hampshire. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington kindly responded to an inquiry I made and said this summer has featured consistent southerly air flow up the Champlain Valley. The Adirondacks, especially near Port Henry and Plattsburgh help the air flow converge in those spots, leading to updrafts that create storms. 

Those storms then start to move over Lake Champlain toward Vermont, but tend to fall apart when they encounter the more stable air created by the comparatively cool waters of the lake. 

Last night, a little before midnight or so, a surprise thunderstorm strong enough to prompt a severe thunderstorm warning moved through Franklin County, Vermont.  Here in St. Albans, I didn't notice any strong winds, just a downpour and plenty of lightning. 

I suspect a temperature inversion might have deflected strong thunderstorm wind and prevented them from reaching the ground.  That storm put about 0.75 inches of rain in my unofficial rain gauge, but it was localized enough such that Burlington never saw a drop of rain last night. 

Today should be quiet, though it wouldn't surprise me if one of those areas in eastern New York between Lake Champlain and the Adirondacks pop an isolated storm today. 

THURSDAY

This is the new trouble day, though as of this writing, we don't quite know for sure whether we'll have renewed flash flooding or severe storms. Or, if they do occur, where they'll set up. 

Something called a mesoscale convective system, or MCS by weather geeks, was in Wisconsin and Minnesota this morning. It's basically a big cluster of thunderstorms and these things are common in the Midwest during the summer. 

More times than not, if they affect Vermont at all, these MSC's are going through a weakening trend by the time they make it here.

A familiar map rears its ugly head again. Best chances
for scattered instances of flash flooding tomorrow
appear to be in Vermont, at least according to 
this morning's forecasts. 

Not this one.  It's going to hold together nicely, and create a severe weather threat and/or a flash flood threat in New England, including Vermont tomorrow. 

Who gets what depends on the track and timing of the MCS.  A more northerly route opens the door to severe storms region wide, along with a flash flood risk. 

A slightly more southerly route would continue the risk of flash flooding all over the state, but would tend to keep the severe thunderstorms further south. 

If the best atmospheric dynamics with this come through in the afternoon, that would be the best timing for severe storms. 

 There's some hints that the arrival and departure of this thing might be a little earlier tomorrow than first thought, which might reduce the risk of severe weather and flooding somewhat.  But that's not a guarantee. Forecasts could change. 

Still, it looks like this could actually pose a low but real tornado risk again across southern and central New England, places like central and western Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. 

All of New England has some threat of severe storms tomorrow, with the best chance, at least for now, south of a Rutland, Vermont to Portland, Maine line.  

As of this morning, the best chances of flash floods are focused - sigh - on Vermont. It'll be the drill we've become familiar with. Most people in Vermont will escape flash flooding but a few towns get nailed by washouts, road closures, that type of thing. Like we need any more localized damage.

Once again, expect some changes in this forecast between now and tomorrow. Of course, I'll update!

So the end to our flooding streak has been postponed. The next chance of any trouble would be with a cold front Friday night or Saturday, but so far the chances of flooding with that system look low.

After that, forecasters are still expecting an extended spell of cool and mostly dry weather starting later Saturday or Sunday and continuing into early next week. 

Western Heat Wave Breaking Many Records, And Maybe Power Grid, Too

The worst September heat wave in western U.S. history
is threatening to overload the California electrical grid,
which might cause rolling blackouts.

What is likely the most intense September heat wave on record in much of the western United States is breaking a huge number of records.  

Plus, the fact that it's lasting so long might also break the power grid, especially in California. The longer a heat wave goes on, the worse it gets for the health of the people experiencing it, and the worse  it gets for the infrastructure.

This heat wave began for most of the region on August 30 and is expected to last until toward the end of this week. 

The heat is truly unprecedented for this late in the season. 

As the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang notes, all-time highs for the month of September are being set in a wide region. Among the cities that have so far reached records for September are Salt Lake City (103 degrees); Pocatello, Idaho (102 degrees); and Great Falls, Montana (102 degrees).

Even more remarkable, according to the Long Beach (California) Post News, the temperature Monday at Pierce College in Woodland Hills, California reached 121 degrees, the hottest temperature ever recorded in Los Angeles County.  

Also, last Thursday, September 1, the temperature reached 127 in Death Valley, California. If this reading is verified, it would become the hottest temperature recorded anywhere on Earth in September. 

On Monday, Livermore, California reached 116 degrees, its hottest temperature for any date on record. Sacramento tied its all time record high Monday, reaching 114 degrees. That record could be again tied or bested today as the predicted high in Sacramento is 114 or 115 degrees. 

Because of the widespread and persistent heat, California officials declared a power grid emergency Monday, as Bloomberg reported. Use of electricity in California was reaching its highest level since at least 2017.

If homes and businesses don't step up conservation even further than they have in recent days, there's the possibility of rolling blackouts. 

This situation could easily become worse today as students head back to school and businesses reopen after the Labor Day holiday weekend. 

We often hear in heat waves that threaten electrical supplies that people should not do laundry, run major appliances and turn down air conditioning between 4 and 9 p.m. when electrical use is highest.  That's the advice now being given in California.  But here's a sign of the times: Californians are also  asked not to charge their electric vehicles in the late afternoon and evening. 

The extreme heat and ultra-dry conditions have also set off numerous wildfires in California and Oregon. A blaze that started as a lumber mill fire roared through neighborhoods in the town of Weed, California, killing at least two people.

Another fire broke out around the city of Hemet, California, in Riverside County, California, killing an additional two people, 

Fires are also burning in Los Angeles County and the wildfires are expected to worsen as the heat wave drags on. 

The heat is not expected to break until this upcoming weekend.

NEW ENGLAND

Meanwhile, Interstate 95 in Providence, Rhode Island was 
shut down by flash flooding on Monday. 

Back home here Vermont, temperatures are expected to remain above normal through mid-month, despite the cool weather in northern Vermont Sunday and statewide Monday and today. However, record high temperatures are not expected, at least for now. 

Southern Vermont is receiving heavy rain, which is denting a drought there. Up to three inches of rain is forecast for some towns in the southernmost two counties. 

However, northern Vermont has been stuck since Sunday with just fog, drizzle and light showers. That makes this murky and a bit depressing, but we're not receiving the wetting we need. 

Prospects are dim for any rain in northern Vermont at least through the weekend. Latest trends in forecasting models seem to want to postpone rain further out until sometime next week.

Southern New England, also in a drought, had too much rain in too short a time Monday.  The area around Providence, Rhode Island saw serious flash flooding. Parts of super busy Interstate 95 were shut down in both directions due to high water. It has since reopened.

Up to nine inches for rain was reported in Cranston, Rhode Island.  A Providence building collapsed under the onslaught of rain, and at least one dorm at Brown University was flooded. 

The flood risk continues in southern New England today. 

Quick Elsa Update: I-95 Corridor Getting The Worst, Again

Hard to see where's where on this satellite view early
this evening, but this shows Tropical Storm Elsa
over Virginia, making a beeline toward southern 
New England

 Tropical Storm Elsa continued to travel roughly northbound along Interstate 95 today, helping to unleash severe thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England for the third day in a row. 

Elsa is working in tandem with a non-tropical storm system in the eastern Great Lakes to produce the storms and the heavy rain, and the flash flooding. 

I just figured I ought to give a quick Thursday evening update.

The storm threatens to create the risk of significant flash flooding in a stripe along its path through southern New England and into eastern Maine late tonight and tomorrow.

Here in Vermont, northern areas of the state need the rain much more than the south. But of course, after several days of consistent forecasts for a heavy, soaking rain, the north is beginning to look like it might miss out, again. 

Sure it will rain. Current forecasts are still clinging to an inch or so of rain in northern Vermont, but we'll see if that pans out. Might or might not. 

The southeastern two thirds of Vermont is still under a flash flood watch.  That's because there could be streaks of heavier rain where repeated lines of downpours go over the same areas, creating zones of flood risk.

It'll be small stream and creek flooding. Bigger rivers are still expected to be no problem. 

There's a decent chance we will hear some thunder overnight, but severe storms are not expected. Close miss though: It looks like there was just a brief tornado in New York's St. Lawrence Valley a little southeast of Watertown around 6:30 p.m. this evening. 

The worst of the rain will be over by Friday afternoon in Vermont, but there might be a few showers around into the evening. 

It's still looking like a pretty nice weekend before humid weather returns for next week.