Rain Is Coming To Vermont Again, Could Be Heavy In Spots

Clouds blowing in from some showers near Plattsburgh,
New York were already beginning to fill the sky
over St. Albans, Vermont at 12:40 p.m. today.
There's a rising chance of showers, especially late
this afternoon and we're in for a wet night, with
more showers and storms Friday. 

I had internet problems this morning so I was unable to post earlier, but the glitch seems to have disappeared, so I'll do a noontime Vermont update today instead.

I thought yesterday would be the first day without rain in the Green Mountain State since June 16. 

But a couple raindrops landed on me in Enosburgh yesterday morning. And it looked like a shower or two clipped the extreme northeast corners of the  state in the afternoon. More rain is on the horizon

REST OF TODAY

Today has a good shot at being the ninth consecutive day with rain somewhere in the state.   

A couple showers or even a rumble of thunder could enter western Vermont as soon as this afternoon. Mostly later this afternoon, but I noticed a couple very small downpours had formed near Plattsburgh, New York as of 12:30 p.m. But a warm front attached to a weak area of low pressure that's now near Michigan. All of Vermont will get wet overnight and early tomorrow morning. 

The best guess for now is northern areas should get a quarter inch of rain or so. Central Vermont gets a third of an inch and souther areas are closer to three quarters of an inch. There will be a lot of exceptions  to this, as some heavier downpours and thunderstorms might be mixed in with all this. 

NOAA has central and southern Vermont in a marginal risk for flash flooding tonight because of the risk of heavy downpours from very late this afternoon through tonight. . If any flooding does happen, it will be isolated and probably quite minor.

FRIDAY

There should be something of a break in the action during the morning, when showers become generally lighter and much more widely scattered. Bur then a weather front enters the picture in the afternoon. I wouldn't go so far as to call it a cold front because the air behind it isn't really any colder than the air in front of it.

But a front is zone in which winds converge, and that will be enough to fire up some afternoon showers and thunderstorms Those showers and storms will be pretty widespread around Vermont, so almost everybody will get wet again during the afternoon and evening. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction center gives southern Vermont a marginal risk of severe storms, meaning one or two spots could see some damaging winds. 

As is always the case with thunderstorms, rainfall will be super variable Friday afternoon and evening. A few places might get a real gullywasher, enough to maybe erode some steep gravel driveways or roads in a couple spots. 

A handful of spots will get practically nothing, while many of us will just see some typical showers nd storms. 

SATURDAY AND BEYOND

Increasing heat and humidity is the story Saturday through the middle of next week. This weekend won't be too bad with highs in the low 80s amid moderate humidity. But that humidity will increase Monday through at least Wednesday. 

It's unclear how hot it will get. That depends on how many clouds, showers and storms are around. But warmer valleys have a shot at 90 degrees.  Even if doesn't get that hot, nights will be really stuffy due to the muggy air

Surprisingly Heavy Vermont Rainfall Raising Some Flood Concerns.

Just a few hours after the main band of strong 
thunderstorms departed on Thursday, the first in
a series of rain showers arrived that evening, as
seen here in St Albans. Several rounds of showers,
some heavy have come through since then. More
showers and possible downpours are
due today and Sunday.

An odd risk of some scattered flooding as developed in northern Vermont despite cool northwest winds that usually prevent that sort of thing. 

That big storm we had Thursday, the one that gave Vermont two tornadoes and other damaging wind storms, is  now lumbering around eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritime provinces. 

 The storm is sending bands of showers southeastward out of the Canadian Maritimes into mostly northern and central Vermont. 

Rain has been maldistributed in Vermont most of this month anyway. Northern Vermont, especially the Northeast Kingdom, has been getting lots of rain. The southeast corner of Vermont, which was still facing lingering dryness from last year's drought, has not gotten all that much rain at all.

During Thursday's storm, the Northeast Kingdom was drowned again. Several towns in north central and Northeast Vermont received more than two inches of rain from Thursday's storms. Meanwhile, the southeast corner of the state had some damaging thunderstorms Thursday, but they were quick hitters that only deposited a third to a half inch of rain. 

Yesterday, bands of rain, some of it heavy, sank slowly southward through the northern half of Vermont. Each individual shower in the band moved fast, but the showers were all following one another, like boxcars on a freight train, so surprisingly heavy rains fell. Southern Vermont got nothing.

Through midnight last night, Burlington has already received 4.3 inches of rain so far this month. The normal for the entire month of June is 4.26 inches, so we're already above normal for June. More rain fell early today. Some of it was heavy. 

Around 1:30 a.m. today, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington issued a flood warning  for much of Chittenden County, parts of Addison County, and the western slopes of the Green Mountains roughly between the Middlebury Snow Bowl an Smuggler's Notch due to a heavy period of overnight rain. 

The warning has since expired, and I haven't seen any flood reports yet, but I image some steep gravel roads or driveways might have suffered some damage.  

Usually, the amount of rain that falls in this type of weather situation with a west to northwest wind is quite light. But the disturbance rotating around the backside of that storm and into northern New England are pretty dynamic and energetic, and able to produce some locally heavy rains. 

TODAY

An interesting satellite photo shows a band of
heavy showers across north central Vermont Friday
while the south remained mostly clear. Those
showers produced locally heavy rain. 

This state of affairs will continue today. One area of showers was coming through northern Vermont as of 7:30 this morning. 

It contained brief downpours but the area of rain wasn't big or intense enough to set off any flooding. But it kept wetting the soils and helping rivers stay elevated. 

If we get more downpours today, I don't expect any serious river flooding, but there could be some local washouts, erosion things like that. 

The larger rivers are running high, which should make you think twice about taking a kayaking trip along those waterways. 

More disturbances will rotate through today. It'll be rather cloudy, especially north, but enough sun will get through to increase the instability in the air. This will create numerous showers and garden variety thunderstorms, but some of them might contain heavy rain. 

In general northern Vermont will see between a third and three quarters of an inch of rain today. But places in the mountainous terrain mostly north of Route 2 could see locally more than that, which could trigger isolated instances of flash flooding today. 

Highs will only be in the upper 60s and low 70s under the clouds and showers.

SUNDAY

Same old, same old. More rounds of showers and storms, mostly central and north. Highs will be a little warmer with temperatures getting into the 70s for most places. It'll still be a few degrees cooler than average. 

Once again, some showers or storms could produce some downpours in the northern mountains, so isolated flash flooding is possible again. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't worry about flash flooding tomorrow, but the ground is so saturated in the north that it could happen. Like today, if any flooding happens, it will be very localized. This weekend will be no means be a replay of the horrible summer floods in 2023 and 2024.

Rainfall this morning through Sunday evening will range from two inches or a little more in a couple spots in northern Vermont to less than a tenth of an inch near the Massachusetts border. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor lists an area of Vermont south and east of a line from Bennington to roughly White River Junction as abnormally dry, so the rain misses down there are annoying. But there's hope.

MONDAY

A small, fast moving but very wet little storm is forecast to scoot by to the south of Vermont on Monday. There's still some questions about how far north its heavy rain will extend. But chances are far southern Vermont could receive a really good soaking out of this. 

If everything works out right, Bennington and Windham counties could receive a couple inches of rain ou of this little storm. 

Amounts will taper off the further north you go.  This could change, but central Vermont could get moderate amounts of rain out of Monday's system. The sopping wet north would only get a little bit of rain. Which is great because that scenario would mean no risk of additional flooding. 

Long range forecasts can never be trusted, but predictions through the end of the month in indicate a slow warming trend and frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms through June 30 

Weekend Vermont Forecast Has Gotten More Complicated, With Downpours, Severe Weather Threat Sunday

A perfect summer day Friday at Taylor Park in downtown
St. Albans, Vermont. The forecast for the rest of this
weekend has suddenly gotten more complicated. 

 This was supposed to be a nice weekend in here in Vermont.  A couple days ago, we thought there might be a couple light showers Saturday night and Sunday morning, that's it. Otherwise, it would be mostly just sunshine and low humidity.  

Well, as everything goes these days, Ma Nature has thrown in a surprise. The weather forecast has suddenly gotten more complicated. And much wetter.  

Suddenly, our oversight tonight and Sunday will feature unexpectedly high humidity, the risk of severe storms in some areas and locally heavy downpours. 

This isn't going to be an end of the world type storm. Most places will just see rain and thunder. But we're now virtually guaranteed to break the record for the most consecutive weekends with precipitation, at least as measured in Burlington. 

Burlington needs at least a trace of rain by midnight Sunday to break that record. Current forecasts call for roughly a half inch of rain there late tonight and Sunday. 

TODAY  

Today is still going to be gorgeous Vermont summer day, with sunshine and low humidity and warm temperatures rising to the low 80s. I would rate today just a mini-step down from Friday, which I will regard as the most perfect summer day we've had this year.

Afternoon temperatures Friday were comfortably warm in the 70s.  The sky was a beautiful deep blue, without a hint of that annoying wildfire smoke we keep getting. That sky was decorated by puffy clouds. The hills and mountains gleamed their rich summer green at us, and a breeze kept the summer flowers dancing in the gardens.

Today will be pretty much the same, except it will be a touch warmer. And there might be some increasing clouds later in the afternoon and into the evening, but there's no worries about rain.

It'll be a perfect day to get outside and enjoy a Green Mountain summer. Especially since tomorrow is now looking problematic. 

TONIGHT/SUNDAY

An approaching cold front now appears likely to grab some higher humidity from the south. A conglomeration of weather disturbance will come in from the west at the same time, adding some lift and energy to the atmosphere. 

That's a recipe for rain and thunderstorms.  That there will be a complicated mix of very small bits and details in this system adds some questions to the forecast. It's unclear how extensive the rain and thunderstorms will become, but now we know it'll definitely rain. And many of us will hear thunder. 

 The first band of showers will come through after midnight to around or just after dawn.  Some of the rain could contain heavy downpours and maybe some rumbles of thunder.

On Sunday, you'll notice a return of high humidity Sunday, at least for awhile, although actually temperatures won't get all that warm, with highs in the 70s to low 80s south.

The door is open for possible severe storms in much of New England.

That severe risk will run from southern Vermont, along and south of Route 4, and on into the rest of southern New England, and most of  southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine.   

Straight line winds and microbursts are the main threat.  As usual, only a few places in the risk zone would actually see a severe storm. Most places won't be so bad.

How many severe storms form depends a lot on how much sun comes out behind the initial band of storms early Sunday and how quickly a sharp cold front comes in from the northwest. 

Northern areas look to be too far removed from the best instability, so they should be safe from severe weather  Plus, a sharp cold front will hit northern areas first, putting an end to the rains by afternoon.  In fact, if northern Vermont is lucky, they could see a sharp drop in humidity and clearing skies by mid to late afternoon. It all depends on the timing of everything. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center also has a marginal, low level risk of flash flooding from this, but most meteorologists think we won't 'see enough rain to create trouble.  There will be some torrential downpours, but the storms will be moving along too fast to dump excessive amounts of rain in any one spot. 

A few places could see an inch or more of rain out of this,  but most of us will see something in the neighborhood of a half inch. Note that since the ingredients to this system are complicated, results may vary. We could still see another surprise or two out of this. 

BEYOND SUNDAY

This still looks like it's shaping up to be at least one of the coolest stretches of July weather we've seen in several years. 

You'll wake up to a cool Monday morning, then highs will only get to the low 70s at best in many locations. Some northern areas might not get out of the 60s. All that is a good ten degrees cooler than  normal for this time of year. 

Monday night will get into the 40s in many areas, but probably stay in the low 50s in warmer valleys. The cool high pressure system should stall briefly near us, keeping us sunny, dry and relatively cool on Tuesday. (Highs in the 70s)

We'll finally see a return southerly air flow starting Wednesday, so it should turn noticeably warmer and somewhat more humid for the end of the week.  At this point, it doesn't look like it'll get into the 90s again, but, as usual, no guarantees!  

Midwest Tornado Outbreak To Get Even Worse Today; Here In Vermont, More Rain, Slight Flood, Severe Weather Threat

Another day of severe weather and tornadoes today in
large portions of the U.S. Most at risk for strong tornadoes
is in the orange and especially red areas of the map. 

 As expected, several tornadoes touched down Thursday, mostly in Minnesota and Wisconsin with Round 1 of a severe weather outbreak.  That outbreak will move south and get even worse today and tonight. 

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, the weather won't get especially dangerous, but big changes are on the way and there are still some minor threats from possible flooding and strong storms.

I'll get into Vermont details in a moment, but first a national update

STORM OUTBREAK

At least 14 tornadoes touched down in the Upper Midwest Thursday and that number might rise as damage is assessed. 

Even some places that didn't have a tornado got nailed by severe weather. Storm winds gusted to 79 mph in Gardner, Illinois, 74 mph in Bonfield, Illinois and 73 mph in Thief River Falls, up in northern Minnesota.

Even places that didn't have severe weather were hit be strong winds. The strong low pressure system that spawned the tornadoes created wind gusts as high as 64 mph in Pierre, South Dakota. 

A big Beyonce concert at Chicago's Soldier Field was delayed for hours after storms swept the area with strong winds and torrential rains. 

So far, there's been no reports of deaths or serious injuries from the Upper Midwest storms. 

However, today looks even worse than Thursday. 

An area centered on the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers is set up for some bad stuff today. That includes Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois and Indiana. This includes the cities of St. Louis, Cincinnati, Lexington and Louisville, Kentucky and Evansville, Indiana. 

Those areas are under a moderate risk of tornadoes with is a level 4 out of 5 alert level. Forecasters are worried the area later today and tonight will be raked by numerous tornadoes and otherwise damaging thunderstorms.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center wrote,  "Several strong tornadoes are expected, and a long-track high-end tornado will be possible." 

High end, long-tracked tornadoes are relatively rare, and are responsible for the most destruction and potential highest death toll of any twister.

Beyond that, daily risks of severe storms and tornadoes in various parts of the U.S, will continue Saturday through Tuesday. Monday looks especially dangerous in and around Oklahoma, 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The warm weather this week has really gotten my large
lilac bushes to bloom around my St. Albans, Vermont
house.  Smells great out there in the breeze.

The weather here in Vermont over the next few days will be interesting, but not violent. 

The Green Mountain State has one more day of summer today before an extended chilly spell hits. Burlington had its fourth day in a row in the 80s Thursday and today will probably make it five. 

Today will be a mixed bag, with sunshine, and scattered showers and storms. Some places will get nailed by heavy, slow moving rainers while other areas will barely be touched. 

We had a foretaste of what is to come Thursday. While most of us had a partly sunny, warm  summer day,  slow-moving thunderstorms that dropped heavy rain , mostly in sections of southern Vermont.

In far southern Vermont, in the mountains east of Bennington around Searsburg and Woodford State Park, a flood advisory was briefly issued Thursday evening as storms there dumped at least two inches of rain in a short period of time.

A special weather statement was also issued in Rutland County for slow moving storms that had the potential to cause minor flooding.

Today, the storms will be more widespread than they were yesterday.  Any storms that do form will move slowly like they did yesterday, leaving open the opportunity for isolated instances of flash flooding. NOAA' Weather Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk for flash flooding today, a level one out of four alert levels. 

Hard to say in advance who gets bullseyed by storms and who avoids the worst of it.  It's a roll of the dice

Saturday

Yes, Saturday will definitely be the eighth one in a row with rain. It won't rain all day, but there will be frequent enough showers and possibly thunderstorms. 

The wild card is Saturday afternoon.  If it stays cloudy all day the round of showers coming in during the afternoon won't have much instability to work with, so we'd just get downpours, and no strong thunderstorms. 

However, we get an interval of sunshine in the late morning and early afternoon, that would prime the pump for a few scattered strong to severe storms.  If it happens it won't be anything widespread but it's something to keep in mind. 

NOAA has Vermont in both a low level risk of severe storms and a marginal risk of flash flooding for Saturday.  Whatever happens will be fairly isolated, and not another full scale disaster like we've seen in recent years.

Beyond Saturday

Hope you liked summer this week because it's over. We're in for a long period of chilly, unsettle weather that should last at least a week, maybe more.  

The rain should continue Saturday night and into Sunday.  Rainfall totals between now and Sunday evening should be more than inch across most of Vermont. Places that really get hit hard by repeated downpours could get two or more inches of rain.

Starting Monday and continuing through next week, it's hard to tease out exactly when and how much rain will fall. But we know temperatures will be below normal, it'll be more cloudy than sunny and daily temperatures should stay mostly in the 50s and low 60s. 

I'm not sure when summer weather will return, but it'll be a long wait.    

 

Intense Flash Flooding In Northeast, And Ontario, Some Vermont Flood Risk Today

Extreme flooding again, this time in Connecticut on
Sunday. Photo from WINY Radio via Facebook. 

 While we in Vermont were harassed by scattered, mostly light showers and overcast skies on Sunday, new outbreaks of intense flash flooding hit other areas not too far from the Green Mountain State. 

Parts of Connecticut were under a flash flood emergency when up to ten inches of rain deluged the southwest parts of the state in a matter of hours. That led to a disaster on par with what happened around St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville on July 30 when eight inches of rain fell in a few hours there. 

The flooding in western Connecticut Sunday was described as a one in a thousand year flood event, which means the chances of what happened yesterday in any given year is 0.1 percent. Of course, in the age of climate change, I think this percentage chance need to be altered.

Up to ten inches of rain fell in just a few hours. In some western Connecticut towns, up to six inches of rain fell in just three hours. 

Unfortunately, reports are two people were swept away in the Connecticut flooding but deaths had not been confirmed as of this morning.

As you'd expect damage is severe, with many roads washed out. Homes and businesses are trashed. The same story we've heard way too often this year.

Meanwhile, in Ontario, five inches of rain drenched Toronto Saturday, setting off new rounds of flooding in a summer that has already seen intense flooding in Ontario.  Once again, people had to be pulled from cars suddenly stranded in rapidly rising water. 

This will be Toronto's wettest summer on record, according to Environment Canada.   The wettest summer on record in Toronto was previously 15.6 inches of rain, but already this summer, they've had 18.73 inches and counting. 

Here we go again. Vermont under a slight
risk for flash flooding today. 

I'm struck by how frequently the floods have been in the Northeast and southeastern Canada this summer. Central and northern Vermont on July 11. Vermont's Northeast Kingdom on July 30.  Toronto, Canada on July 15 and August 17. Montreal on August 2. Now Connecticut.

MORE FLOODS?

Today brings one last day for awhile for some flood threats in New England, including here in Vermont. 

The cold front that promises to bring in that chilly air we've been advertising is set to come through today.  NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has upgraded us from a marginal to a slight risk of excessive rain and flash flooding across Vermont today.

That is level two out of four-point scale. 

These risks are always tricky to assess in advance.  Sometimes, the heavy rain moves right along and doesn't linger over one area, minimizing the flood threat. Other times, heavy downpours hit the same area over and over again, and you have a local flash flood.

Today is kind of a tossup, so we'll have to wait until this afternoon to see how everything behaves. 

We know the line of storms ahead of today's cold front will have some torrential downpours. It's just a question of whether they linger over a particular spot for a couple or few hours.  Especially if it lingers over the Green Mountains, that could cause trouble, as the rainwater would gush down the steep slopes and cause some flash flooding.  

If we get any flash flooding in Vermont today, it'll happen between 1 and 8 p.m., says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  Any flash flooding would take the form of washed out culverts, gravel roads and ditches, flooding of the type of small streams that rise quickly in heavy rains, and street flooding in urban areas. 

I don't think flash flooding today will be super widespread. Most of us should only get 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, which is manageable. But a few unlucky spots could get much more. 

The National Weather Service said this morning the ground is still so soggy that we can only handle 1.5 to 2 inches of rain in an hour before flash flooding would probably begin. Some towns that get hit by the heaviest downpours today could see that much rain in such a short time period. 

Seek higher ground very quickly if your area goes under flash flood warning.

We won't have to worry about flooding along main rivers like the Winooski, Lamoille, Missisquoi, Mad rivers and Otter Creek.  Those rivers will see sharp rises overnight, but won't go over their banks or cause anything scary or really damaging. 

I always hate to talk about flash flood risks because we Vermonters are so jumpy now when it comes to floods.  It's happened so much and so frequently, any forecast that mentions flooding probably triggers PTSD in more than a few people.

But, it will be over by this evening, so at least we don't have to sit and worry for very long.

COLD SNAP

As the chilly air pours in this evening, any Vermont flood risk will evaporate for the foreseeable future. The cold air in the atmosphere will probably trigger a fair number of rain showers Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly part of Thursday.  But all those showers will be light and pose absolutely no flood danger. 

After that, it should stay dry until at least next Sunday, or possibly even longer. 

 

Super Stormy From Midwest To East Ahead Of A Break In Oppressive Heat

Lightning crackles across the sky last night
over St. Albans, Vermont. 

 Changes in weather patterns often go out with a bang.

So it is currently as severe storms and tornadoes have been hitting huge areas from the Plains, through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. 

The extensive severe weather - a bit rare for July - is a function of a weather pattern change that will bring an end to a long siege of hot, humid air in the Midwest and Northeast. This break in the heat could last at least a week in many places. 

We're included in those not-so-fun stormy times here in Vermont, but luckily it isn't as bad here - and won't be - as in many other area of the nation. 

Two rounds of powerful storms trekked from the Midwest to the Northeast since Sunday night. 

ROUND ONE 

The first began Sunday, rocking its way through Illinois, Indiana and surrounding states. There was widespread damage in and around Chicago, with roof and tree damage throughout the city. Two weak tornadoes were reported in Chicago's South Side, and winds gusted as high as 70 mph across the city. 

The disturbance that caused that erupted again Monday over western New York, dropping tennis ball sized hail in a couple towns, prompted tornado warnings and caused more tree and power line damage. This less than a week after a rare tornado outbreak in western and central New York. 

Those storms generally weakened as they headed into New England. But they were responsible for our light show and downpours last night.   

ROUND TWO

The second band of storms that originated over western Iowa grew even more intense than Sunday's blast as it headed into Illinois and Indiana last evening. Winds gusted to 75 mph at Chicago's O'Hare airport and there reports of possible tornadoes near O'Hare and Midway airports. Video showed what appeared to be a tornado moving over O'Hare. 

Radar images showed pretty tight rotation in a storm over downtown Chicago, where tornado warnings blared for a time last night. 

Wind gusted to 105 mph in an unincorporated town north of Peoria, Illinois, 101 mph in Davis Junction, Illinois just south of Rockford, and 93 mph in Lena, Illinois, a small town west of Rockford.

A woman died in Indiana when a tree fell on her home.  

VERMONT EXCITEMENT, HEAT

Burlington, Vermont reached 91 degrees Monday, the tenth day this year of 90 degree heat.  That makes it the fifth year in a row that had at least 10 such days.  That kind of streak has never happened before. Each of the past ten years has had at least eight 90 degree days. 

Lightning over St. Albans, Vermont last night. 

Previously, the longest such streak was six years in the 1940s.

We might make it to 90 again today, but that will likely be the last such day for a long time. It might not make it to 90 again this month as we anticipate a drier, cooler flow of air from the northwest starting Thursday. 

A heat advisory is in effect today for the Champlain and Connecticut Valleys. The rest of Vermont will be pretty oppressive, too.

Last night's storms hit areas that suffered the severe flooding last week. They weren't big enough to cause any serious new flooding, but it kept things wet and primed for renewed flash flooding if storms later today can produce strong enough downpours. Many areas in the northern half of Vermont had anywhere from a half inch to 1.5 inches of rain.

My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected a healthy 1.3 inches of rain from last night's storms. 

The disturbance that caused the wild weather and tornadoes in and near Chicago last night is heading our way, but it won't cause nearly as much drama as it did there. 

Still, we could see a few strong to severe storms and torrential downpours out of this. They could form in hit or miss fashion any time this afternoon, but most of them will hold off until after 5 p.m. 

Forecasts since yesterday have trended a little south with the most concentrated and intense storms, which steers the focus away from northern Vermont just a bit. 

Soils in the southern half of Vermont have a much greater capacity to absorb downpours at the moment than areas in the flash flood zone further north. 

While a severe storm is possible anywhere in Vermont later today, the best chance is along and south of Route 4.  Since the strongest storms will be south, that's where the most torrential downpours will probably set up, too.

That said, the air is so humid that there could be storms later today anywhere that could dump more than an inch of rain in an hour. That would set off a few local flash floods. Definitely nothing widespread or as severe as last week, but something to keep an eye on.

Tomorrow is still a surprising wildcard, given how the forecast for Wednesday is just a day away. We know we'll start off humid. There's some disagreement still on when the cold front will come through. The later in the day it arrives, the greater the chances of strong storms and more big downpours. 

Confidence in the forecast starting Thursday and into the weekend is still high. Humidity levels will crash. Temperatures will be just slightly on the cool side for the season Thursday, then back up into the low or even mid-80s in a couple spots Saturday.

Then a reinforcing shot of cool air from Canada comes in Sunday to drop temperatures further. By then, we'll deal with ultra comfortable highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. 

At least at the moment, it looks like there will be little if any rain at all between Thursday and and at least next Monday, and possibly beyond that.  

Quick Monday Morning Update, Surprise Showers, Heat And A Storm/Downpour Risk

 Guess what? more rain. 

When your short on traffic cones because there are so
many damaged roads in Vermont, you use what you
 can. This goofy deer toy alerts people that 
part of this stretch of Texas Hill Road between
Hinesburg and Huntington, Vermont is washed out. 
More locally torrential storms are possible today
and tomorrow, leading to the risk of isolated, local
incidents of additional flash flooding. 

It can't seem to stop raining in northern Vermont, at least not yet.

A somewhat unexpected batch of showers moved through most of the northern half of the state today. They were far, far too light to cause any further flood damage, but it was just another example of how the rain keeps coming lately. 

Unlike last summer, the wet weather will end, as a big pattern change is coming. But it will take a few days.

More on that in a moment.

Right now, we're on the northern edge of another heat dome, this one bringing record heat to parts of the East Coast. 

Since we're on the edges of this heat dome, we'll be plenty hot and humid, but the door is also wide open for weather disturbances to scoot through.

So it is today. And tomorrow. It's always a little hard to tease out exactly when and where thunderstorms will fire up, and how many will get going. But suffice it to say, we have a decent chance of more torrential storms today. But they'll be hit and miss. 

Before I go on, I'll emphasis we're NOT in for another round of widespread flash flooding like we were last week. If we have any new trouble, it will be widely scattered. The only reason why there's any worry at all is that things are so wet and unstable in the ground from last week that a local torrential thunderstorm could cause new trouble. 

 Since yesterday forecasters have slightly upped the chances of strong thunderstorms and locally torrential downpours today and tomorrow. 

TODAY

Today's storms, as usual, will be hit and miss. A weather disturbance bumping into the hot, humid air over us is enough to trigger some afternoon and evening activity. 

There could be a storm or two with damaging wind gusts thrown into the mix. The best chance of that happening is south and west of Interstate 89, but even there, the risk of severe weather is on the low side. 

The somewhat bigger threat this afternoon and tonight is the torrential downpours. Those will be isolated incidents, too. But they could happen anywhere in Vermont.  But NOAA's Weather Prediction Center puts the chance of very isolated flash flooding in the Green Mountain State from about Route 2 north. 

TUESDAY

Another weather disturbance, once again plowing into our to, humid air will bring another chance of torrential storms, a few of which could be severe. There could be isolated damaging winds anywhere in Vermont, with this morning's forecasts giving the best chance to far northwestern Vermont and on into New York.

In fact, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center gives a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief spinup twister once again, this time from the Champlain Valley westward into New York. I wouldn't hold my breath on that one, but it's still there. 

Any storm that does get going could have torrential rains Tuesday and Tuesday night. You know the drill by now. Isolated instances of flash flooding could crop up again. Depending on how persistent and heavy any storms get.

With or without storms, both today and tomorrow will be oppressively hot and humid.  I'll need to repeat my warning here to not overdo it with flood cleanup.  These are conditions that can cause heat stroke if you're physically working too hard outdoors. 

WELCOME TRANSITION

At least a temporary weather pattern change will help us in Vermont a great deal. The beginning of it will be marked by a cold front Wednesday.  More showers and storms will form with it, but so far, nothing wild is expected. Stay tuned.

For a few days starting Thursday, we'll be in more of a northwest flow.  That means mostly dry, seasonable weather with low humidity and much more comfortable sleeping nights. 

We'll get a couple more cold fronts through early next week. But they'll be weak as they come in from the north and won't have much moisture to work with. The days will still be mostly warm - in the low 80s, since the air coming from Canada is pretty toasty by their standards. 

I'm not sure how long the dry break in the weather will last, but however long it does linger, we'll definitely enjoy it! 

1 PM Thursday Update Severe Thunderstorm Watch Up In Vermont , Storms Firing Up Now

One of the first developing thunderstorms of the day
pictured here beginning to loom over St. Albans, 
Vermont at around 1 p.m. A severe thunderstorm 
watch is in effect statewide. 

A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for all of Vermont and adjacent areas of New Hampshire and eastern Maine until 8 p.m. this evening. 

 Conditions were close to ideal this morning and early afternoon for storm development. There was more than  enough sunshine to boost temperatures and create more instability. Gawd knows there's plenty of moisture available for storms. 

And a cold front is in southern Quebec, slowly moving toward us and providing the trigger for storms.

 A path was being cleared for that cold front by slowly dropping temperatures high up in the atmosphere. That increasing contrast between the high heat at the surface and  cooling temperatures aloft are great for thunderstorms. 

One measure of the potential for thunderstorms is CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy, which  helps meteorologists gauge where the best conditions are for the updrafts that create thunderstorms. 

Interestingly but not surprisingly, the first severe thunderstorm warning today was issued at around 12:35 p.m. today for the area in and around Vergennes and Middlebury. That's where the best CAPE was measured prior to storms firing up.

There's plenty of this CAPE for storms in the rest of Vermont and surrounding areas, so anybody is up for a thunderstorm. That slight risk zone for severe storms, a level two on a five point scale, has been expanded northward to cover all of Vermont, not just areas south of Route 2. 

Not everybody will see a severe thunderstorm, of course, but the big storms will be more numerous than the very scattered ones yesterday. 

While storms with a severe potential will hit statewide, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says the best bet for the severe potential is south of a line from  roughly St. Albans to Lyndonville, and north of a line from Manchester to Springfield. 

Wherever any severe storms hit, by far the biggest problem is intense straight line winds that can easily blow down branches and trees. That would be made worse if those trees fall on any power lines, cars or houses. 

We could see some hail in the most powerful storms to come through. Tornadoes are highly unlikely, I wouldn't worry too much about that. 

Even if your particular thunderstorm or storms today don't turn out to be severe, they'll still be dangerous. I expect plenty of cloud to ground lightning. Locally torrential rains could touch off a few isolated instances of flash flooding, too. 

The risk for storms will gradually decrease this evening as we get the waning influence of the sun, and the day's thunderstorms take the energy out of the air, leaving less fuel for new storms. 

As you already noticed, the heat is really on before the storms hit. After lingering near a stuffy 80 degrees in Burlington from about dawn to 10 a.m., temperatures rocketed to 92 degrees by 1 p.m. 

If the storms hold off for a couple more hours, todays' record high of 95 degrees is in jeopardy of falling. 

Vermont To Have Kind Of Stormy Memorial Day And Night, But NOTHING Like The Midwest

Umbrellas closed on our St. Albans, Vermont deck this
morning in anticipation of gusty winds in the Green
Mountain State later today. Thunderstorms and 
downpours are also in the forecast, mostly later 
today and tonight 

More tornadoes spun through the Midwest and South Sunday, and the death toll is now at 19 from the worst tornado outbreak of the year so far.   

Nearly 100 tornadoes have been reported in the United States since last Thursday. 

There might be a few more today mostly in the Mid-Atlantic States as the pretty potent storm moves from the Great Lakes into Quebec. It's dragging its cold front into the East, which explains the continued rough weather. 

Here in Vermont, we're in for by late May standards a stormy day and night, with gusty winds, the risk of a couple strong storms mostly in western sections and some bursts of heavy rain.  

WIND

It'll be pretty windy for most of us today, especially in the Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Winds could gust to 40 mph in some parts of the western slopes and Champlain Valley and 20 to 35 mph elsewhere.

If you haven't already, you should probably take down deck umbrellas and make sure light weight stuff doesn't blow around.  Also, today is not the day to take your boat out on the lake, despite the temptation of enjoying the Memorial Day holiday.  Maybe just remember our fallen soldiers instead, in keeping with the day?

Leaves on the trees are new, and you'd be surprised at how heavy a tree full of leaves are.

Trees that had been weakened by storms over the winter, or are just not in good shape are suddenly heavier with those leaves. That makes them more prone to toppling over in today's wind, if they're no longer sturdy.   

 Nothing widespread, but I think we might see an isolated power outage or two out of this. After all, we had some minor outages last Friday, when winds gusted to 35 mph amid bright sunshine. 

STORMS

Our irises enjoyed a nice sunny Sunday, but they'll
endure wind and possible downpours today. 

Another threat is strong, to isolates severe storms west. That zone of expected severe weather today extends from Georgia all the way up through central New York and the St. Lawrence Valley.  

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington says they'll need to keep an eye out for a rotating storm or two over the St. Lawrence Valley today.  

A marginal risk (lowest of a five point alert scale) of a severe storm now extends as far east as Route 7 in Vermont. So western Vermont might (or might not!) see isolated cases of strong winds with thunderstorms or small hail. 

A wave of scattered showers might come through this morning, with perhaps a rumble of thunder west. The threat for the real thunderstorms comes mostly after 3 p.m. today and extending well into the evening.  Again, hit and miss stuff

DOWNPOURS

The air coming in from the south ahead of the cold front is humid, with plenty of water in it. That sets us up for the risk of local downpours embedded in the rain we've got coming. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center actually has us solidly in a marginal risk zone for flash flooding. That's the lowest in a four-level risk scale. It means there's a chance that there could be an isolated instance of flash flooding here or there later today and tonight. 

If we do see any kind of flash flooding around Vermont, which is iffy, it won't be anything catastrophic. We're not going to do what we did last summer in this instance.  Otherwise, chances are you'll hear the roar of a quick downpour on your roof later today or tonight. 

We could use the rain, actually. Gardens are getting sort of dry. 

OUTLOOK

The storm causing all this will linger nearby for a few days, opening us up for the chance of showers daily through Thursday, perhaps into Friday if the system overstays its welcome.

There's a low risk of showers Tuesday, as it looks now with temperatures remaining mild in the 70s. We have a better chance of hit and miss showers Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures a little on the cool side for this time of year.

There's hints that a drier, warmer period mighty start next weekend. 

Spring/Summer Vermont Rain Pattern Today: Some Places Drenched, Others Just Misted

 Today in Vermont will be much like Sunday:

National Weather Service radar around 7 a.m. today
showed a batch of thunderstorms in New York State
heading into southern Vermont, while more
showers, some rather heavy, lurked just north of the
border.  Showers and storms are a risk all day today.

Some places will get absolutely drenched, others only dampened. Some lightning and thunder could mix in across a few places, too. 

Also, it's hard to say exactly who will get the downpours and who won't.   If this sounds like things you hear in the summer, you're right. 

We've entered the season of hit and miss showers and storms. Expect a lot of days like this from now until at least Labor Day.

On Sunday, a few towns in Vermont had more than an inch of rain. Other towns had less than a tenth of an inch. Most places settled on half an inch, give or take. 

The same scenario will be roughly true today, though the heavy rain towns today might be different from those on Sunday. Or maybe not. It's a roll of the dice. 

As of early this morning patches of showers and thunderstorms were over southern Quebec, central New York and southern New England. Some of the Quebec activity was crossing over into northern Vermont. The New York downpours and rumbles of thunder seemed to be headed toward southern parts of the state. 

Overall, the chances of rain and storms will peak between 7 and 9 a.m. today. Then we will probably (but not definitely!) see a lull in the late morning into lunch time. Things will ramp up again in the afternoon and evening as a cold front begins to move through. 

Especially if we get some breaks in the clouds to increase instability in the atmosphere, some afternoon and evening showers and storms could get rather noticeable, though not severe. The more intense ones could feature small hail and torrential downpours. 

Like Sunday's event, this could cause local problems with deep pools of water on some poorly drained streets, and maybe some minor small stream flooding in a couple spots. Like what I had in St. Albans Sunday, when a rush of water pushed logs down stream, almost clogging my culvert. The property adjacent to mine had  a mini-landslide, though no real damage occurred. 

That kind of thing is possible today. But those instances will be pretty few and far between, like they were on Sunday. 

Although the style of rain today is kind of summer-like, temperatures sure won't be. We won't get fully into the warm, humid air that's helping to fuel this system. It was in the mid 80s to around 90 as far north as New York City yesterday. 

For us, just like yesterday, temperatures here in Vermont will hold in the 50s to possibly near 60. 

A guess we are in a literal rinse and repeat cycle this week. Tomorrow will be much like Monday was, with quite a few clouds around, cool temperatures and maybe a shower. 

It turns warmer toward the end of the week. Lots of little systems will be coming through with scattered showers. So far, though, nothing after today looks super impressive. That said, computer models are hazy on exactly what kind of weather we'll have Saturday and beyond.  

We're still in a transition season. Going through May, some weather systems might still bring the type of steady, widespread rain we get in cooler season storms. Many other days will feature the warm season type scattered showers and storms. 

As long as things don't get out of hand like they did last summer, I plan to enjoy those thunderstorms. In many ways, they're my favorite kind of weather.  

Surprisingly Heavy Downpours Sunday. Will We Do It Again Tuesday?

Heavy looking clouds near South Burlington, Vermont
Sunday afternoon portended some unexpectedly
heavy downpours in parts of northern Vermont. 
We might see some more heavy showers Tuesday. 

 UPDATE 10:30 a.m.:

Surprised again.

More rain showers are making inroads into what we thought was too-dry air for much activity.

So at least parts of Vermont should be more showery today than I indicated below.

It won't rain all the time.  But we are under some risk of showers today. Especially central and southern Vermont as it looks now.

It will probably be even a little cooler than first forecast because of the extra clouds associated with the showers

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

After the morning thunderstorms Sunday, I thought any showers we'd receive later in the day would be pretty scattered and probably not that impressive. 

If there were to be any downpours, they'd be really brief, and most of us would only get a little rain.

So much for that idea.

Some of those downpours late Sunday afternoon were remarkably heavy and persistent. 

They lacked the spark and crackle of the morning lightning storms. But much of northern Vermont received a half inch to an inch of rain Sunday. I'm sure a few spots had a little more than that. 

I didn't have my rain gauge out yet, silly me. But judging from the sudden river flowing through my property late Sunday afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised if I had more than an inch of rain.

By the way, the lightning Sunday morning had some sad consequences. Lightning struck a four unit apartment building in Morristown, Vermont.  The lightning caused a fire that left extensive damage and occupants of all four units displaced. 

The storms Sunday left things pretty squishy underfoot once again.  That leaves us at risk for perhaps some minor flooding Tuesday if things come together a certain way in the atmosphere.  It's a tricky forecast. It's all about temperature gradients and stubborn weather systems. 

We'll go through it here

TODAY

A cold front came through last night.  That's why we had all that rain.  The air got quite humid Sunday afternoon for this time of year.  The cold front provided enough lift to wring out that moisture. 

The front has sagged south into southern Vermont.  That will set up quite a temperature gradient today. Highs will only reach the mid 50s in many spots north of Route 2 but reach 70 in southeastern Vermont. 

The cool high pressure system is feeding in dry air in at least some layers of the atmosphere. The result will be a fair amount of clouds today, but very little in the way of showers. There might be some spot sprinkles here or there, but that's it. 

TONIGHT/TUESDAY

A surge of very warm, humid air will try to make a run at us. That cold front that came through last night will start to move north as a warm front. But that strong, stubborn cool high pressure over northern Quebec will push back against that surging muggy air.

That places Vermont square in the battleground. We'll mostly stay in the cooler air, but the humid air will try to go up and over that cooler air. The result could be more downpours.  

The question is where those heavy showers will set up. Will they repeat over the same area? How much rain will fall and where?

Those are questions that are tough to answer with this kind of weather pattern. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going with a round of showers late tonight and tomorrow morning, and another one Tuesday evening. 

As always, forecasts are subject to change. 

Early bets have the heaviest rain in northern Vermont, but we'll see. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has most of Vermont in a low level marginal risk zone for possible flooding.  If anything does materialize it looks like it will be pretty minor. 

So we're not about to re-live last summer's mess.

Better yet, the rain won't persist for days.  It looks drier and somewhat warmer once we get into midweek with only very low chances of light showers. Another storm system might affect us on the weekend. But computer models are all over the place on that one, so we have no idea yet now the weekend weather will shake out. 

Dubai/UAE Pounded By Unprecedented Rains; Prompts Cloud Seeding Questions

 The glittering dry, desert city of Dubai isn't so dry anymore.

In one day this week, Dubai had as much rain as it
normally has in about a year and a half. The desert 
location was socked by extreme downpours. 

A storm dumped about 5.6 inches of rain on Dubai in just 24 hours.  What makes that especially remarkable an entire year there normally features just 3.7 inches of rain.  

One report indicated about ten inches of rain, which would be more than double what usually falls over the course of two years. 

It's super rare for any spot to have a year's worth of rain in a day, never mind two years. 

The result was unsurprisingly chaos, as video showed planes splashing through floodwaters at Dubai International Airport and dozens of cars drowned in water beneath the city's gleaming skyscrapers. 

The flooding turned tragic in neighboring Oman, where 19 people have been killed amid heavy rain and flooding over the past few days. The deaths included 10 children and an adult swept away in a vehicle, the Associated Press reported. 

There's controversy in this, too, as the Associated Press reported:

"Several reports quoted meteorologists at the National Center for Meteorology as saying they flew six or seven cloud-seeding flights before the rains. Flight-tracking analyzed by The Associated Press showed one aircraft affiliated with the UAE's cloud-seeding efforts flew around the country Monday."

UAE has been conducting cloud seeding to enhance rainfall. Groundwater is dwindling in the region. However, the UAE has not commented on whether there was any cloud seeding going on as this storm loomed.

Cloud seeding - something that's been around for decades - involves injecting silver iodide into clouds that have plenty of water vapor. The silver iodide encourages ice crystal formation, which promotes additional rain and snow. 

Many experts question whether the cloud seeding - if it did happen - contributed much to the disaster. Research does indicate cloud seeding does increase precipitation under certain circumstances, but the added precipitation caused by the practice tends not to create a huge amount of excessive precipitation, as the Washington Post notes.

The weather pattern over Dubai was unusual, and that certainly was the major contributor to the downpours. 

A slow moving trough of low pressure moved into the region this week, drawing huge amounts of moisture toward the UAE, setting the stage for downpours. 

As meteorologist Jeff Berardelli explained on X (formerly Twitter), the storm also ingested a large amount of dust.  That dust can also be a cloud seeder, coalescing bits of moisture into a multitude of rain drops. 

We don't yet know whether climate change made this worse or had any influence at all. But in general, climate change does make storms more intense, and rainfall more torrential in many storms.   

As the Washington Post reports, Friederike Otto, a climate scientist with Imperial College London said ie makes sense that climate change could have made the Dubai/UAE storm worse than it otherwise might have been. 

She noted that climate change is producing heavier rainstorms worldwide because warmer air can hold more moisture. "Even if cloud seeding did encourage clouds around Dubai to drop water, the atmosphere would have likely been carrying more water to form clouds in the first place, because of climate change," Otto said 

 

Quick Vermont Thursday Update: Another Drenching, But Flooding Unlikely, For Once. More Smoke, Too A

A narrow plume of wildfire smoke aloft (that milky
looking stuff in this satellite photo) made its way 
down from Canada and over Vermont yesterday.

 We're in for another drenching here in Vermont today, but this time, it looks like it will fall short of creating another flood problem.  Hallelujah! 

A new batch showers and thunderstorms will wet down virtually all of us this afternoon and evening.  In general, most places should get a half inch to an inch of rain. 

A few isolated spots could see up to two inches, which I suppose might create a problem with minor washouts and relatively minor flooding in low spots.  But even if this happens, which is extremely iffy, it shouldn't we widespread or severe at all.

Speaking of severe, some of the thunderstorms later today could be kinda of on the strong side, but it doesn't appear as if they'll cross over into the severe category. 

We're still looking at batches of showers, with locally  heavy rain pretty much every other day for the next week at least. So far, none of these potential storms look especially worrying, so we'll just keep a bit of an eye on them, but not panic.

I notice there's still quite a bit of wildfire smoke out there today.  (When we don't have floods, it seems we have wildfire smoke). Air quality this morning was so-so, but not in the dangerous category. A lot of the smoke is higher up, away from where we breathe.  Mostly, it's just creating hazy skies. 

That's why the sun was dim for much of the day Wednesday.  Smoke high up got in the way.  It did clear up some toward evening, but it's back temporarily this morning.  We'll continue to see smoky skies well into the autumn because the fires in Canada and the western U.S. won't be going away anytime soon. 

Long, Slow Vermont Flood Recovery Begins; Waters Also Slow To Recede, But Glimmers Of Good News

The raging Winooski River drew a crowd in Winooski,
Vermont Tuesday morning. 

 It's time to start bouncing back. 

Yeah, I know, it's going to be a slow trip back from the devastation of the Great Vermont Flood of '23. 

At least along the Winooski River, flood waters were slow to recede today but by late afternoon, the water levels were inching down, except in the Burlington Intervale, where flooding was worsening.

The slow pace of the Winooski River's ebbing has to be frustrating for everybody affected by it. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, the first tiny steps toward disaster recovery had begun this afternoon. 

Those were aided by a return to our regularly scheduled weather for the uncomfortable summer of 2023. The sun came out, which definitely helped, although it was very warm and humid, and of course there was wildfire smoke in the air. As usual. Sigh. 

A LITTLE GOOD NEWS

At least we had flashes of good news today here in Vermont. 

As far as I can tell, the unconfirmed report of a death in Londonderry, Vermont was false.  So far, knock on wood, there have been no fatalities in Vermont from this calamity.  Which is amazing, considering how extensive it was. 

This week's flood is arguably a little worse than Irene in 2011. Irene's Vermont death toll was seven. Do remember, though, the aftermath and cleanup of a disaster can be just as dangerous as the actual event. Let's be careful out there. 

Some other bits of good news. Tentatively, at least, it looks like they won't need to do any major releases from the Wrightsville Dam above Montpelier. That would mean the Capitol City would avoid an even worse inundation.  

The dam on the Winooski River in Essex Junction,
Vermont on Tuesday.

This morning, officials had also announced they would release water from two dams in southern Vermont, which would exponentially worsen flooding. It turns out, the will only release a little water, and additional flooding will be minimal. 

THIS AND THAT

I'm so impressed by how heavy and widespread the rain was. All but one county in Vermont had at least one town with a minimum of four inches of rain. 

Highest totals included 9.2 inches in Calais and 9.05 in Plymouth. Widespread 4 to 8 inch totals were reported along the whole length of the Green Mountains, from Massachusetts to Canada. Valleys on either side had a little less. 

For the record, my place in St. Albans, Vermont had a comparatively modest 3.75 inches of rain from Sunday night to this morning.  That's still about the amount that should fall in an entire July. 

There's a huge pent up demand now from Vermonters wanting to help.  Which is both expected and awesome. It was really too soon on Tuesday to figure out where to put people and what they should do.  Expect to see more information on that starting tomorrow and increasing through the week. 

We are Vermont Strong, so I know we'll all help out as best we can. Watch this space for volunteer opportunities. 

It's best if you avoid Vermont's hardest hit areas for now, unless you are there with a specific job to help with recovery, or media trying to inform the public.   Gawkers are like the rest of the disaster debris: They're in the way and have to be moved. 

LOOKING AHEAD

The only couple of good things I see in the weather forecast is the chances of showers, thunderstorms and downpours are low through Wednesday. The chances are not zero, and a handful of places might get unlucky, but most of us will be fine. 

Except for the heat and humidity. It's relentless. one sign of this is in Burlington's low temperatures. If it stays in the 60s, it's probably humid.  It has not been below 65 in Burlington since June 30. Daytime highs will remain stubbornly in the low to mid 80s. 

A very, very weak cold front might briefly knock the humidity down a peg Wednesday night, and we might actually get down to the low 60s. But that's about it for relief. 

Flooding in Richmond, Vermont Tuesday. 

The humidity will surge back in Thursday and stay with us for an extended period. Probably through much of next week. 

Humidity means the risk of more heavy downpours. Which we need about as much as a submarine needs a screen door.

The best chances of heavy downpours are Thursday afternoon into Friday. 

I know emergency officials and people from Governor Phil Scott on down have been emphasizing the danger from renewed downpours. And they're right.

A hint of optimism is these downpours won't be as horrible as what we just went through. They also won't be as widespread as they were Sunday night through Tuesday morning. 

But even in the best of times, without us being completely waterlogged like we are now, these expected downpours would be capable of generating local flash floods. 

With the ground saturated and roads, river beds and landscape left unstable by the floods early this week, the effects of any local downpours late this week would be magnified. 

Shower chances last into next week, but it's too soon to figure out how light or heavy those might be. 

A slight change in the weather pattern might -  and I emphasize might - make us slightly cooler and slightly drier during the third week of July. 

I don't know for sure that will come to pass. But a man can dream, right?

 

Flood Threat Over For Now; Smoke Makes A (Cough) Triumphant Return

Visible satellite photo from this morning shows
clouds still centered over Vermont. All that milky
stuff is wildfire smoke from Canada covering
most of the eastern U.S. and much of Canada.

 We in Vermont squeaked through another day Wednesday of downpours and flood threats with not that much trouble, at least here in the Green Mountain State.  

I didn't see any flash flood warnings in Vermont, but given the relatively risk going into yesterday and what radar looked like, I'm sure there were some driveway washouts, eroded back roads and other bits of trouble in parts of the state, especially in the Northeast Kingdom.

There was no widespread damage, to be sure, but there had to be a boatload of minor issues to keep town road crews really busy and owners of steep property frustrated.

Rainfall has been super variable. Some times had a few inches of rain between Sunday and Wednesday. Other places completely missed out. Between Saturday evening and Wednesday evening, my place in St. Albans, Vermont got a paltry 0.10 inches. 

The good news is the showers and thunderstorms will be greatly diminished today and tomorrow. The bad news is the smoke is back. The mixed news is that we're getting something of a break from the humidity today, but it will be back for an extended stay, starting tomorrow and then ramping up more afterwards. 

We'll deal with all three issues but let's start with the smoke. 

SMOKE GETS IN YOUR EYES

Another air quality alert is in effect for Vermont starting at 10 a.m. and lasting to at least midnight tonight. I have a  feeling the air quality alert might be extended into tomorrow. We are one of at least 17 states that are dealing with air quality alerts today. 

That smoke from Canadian wildfires is persistent. And a lot of it is trapped in a rather slow moving weather pattern, the same one that is providing all the showers and humidity to the Northeast.

The air quality was actually pretty good over Vermont early this morning, but it will deteriorate during the day as light west and northwest winds shift the smoke back into our neck of the woods. 

I don't think the air quality will get quite as bad as it was over northern Vermont on Sunday, but it will still be a bit rough for people with lung issues, asthma, that sort of thing. Unlike Sunday, the smoke will cover the entire state, not just the north. 

I'm not sure exactly when the smoke will flush out. But my prediction earlier in the spring that this summer would be smoky is coming true, and I don't see an end to the smoke risk anytime soon. 

RAIN/DOWNPOURS

The chances of rain are down today, but not eliminated. The upper level low that has been causing the wet weather is still nearby, but at least it's slowly departing. The best chances for showers and storms will be in eastern Vermont, and maybe northern parts of the state close to the Canadian border.

Even so, anything that comes will be hit and miss.  There might be one or two instances of locally heavy downpours, but if that happens, it won't last long and I'm not worried about any flooding.

Friday, hallelujah! it looks like we'll get through an entire day without rain.  It'll be partly sunny, smoky, and in the low to mid 80s with moderate humidity. So, for once, not bad!

IT'S ONLY HUMID

The high humidity, and daily scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms return Saturday and stay with us through the Fourth of July and probably beyond.  It won't be that hot, as the weather pattern is shunting the truly scorching hot weather to the southern half of the United States.

Still, with afternoon temperatures in the low 80s and dew points in the upper 60s, it will be uncomfortable. 

Get used to stuffy nights and iffy afternoon weather. We won't have any days during that stretch that will be complete washouts, but if you're doing anything outdoors, you'll need to keep an eye on the sky as local downpours will be a near constant threat. 

Wild Day Northern Vermont/New York; South Says Huh? What's Next

Water absolutely gushes from a culvert beneath my
St. Albans, Vermont driveway after a strange day of
thunderstorms, downpours and chilly temperatures. 

 It's been a pretty eventful weather day in Vermont north of Route 2, but those of you in southern Vermont are probably wondering what all the fuss is about. 

In the north, we've had occasional lightning and thunder all day, bursts of heavy rain and in a few locations, freezing rain.

Of course the lightning and thunder is odd, as we usually associate that with warm weather. But temperatures have been in the mid-30s to low 40s for most of northern Vermont all day. 

Also, the thunder has been persistent. I started hearing it a little after 10 a.m. today and we had occasional thunder and lighting at least through 5 p.m. 

That's very weird, too. You usually don't see six or seven hours of nearly continuous thunderstorms. Most of the time, thundery weather lasts no more than a couple hours in any given location. Or, you see two or three thunderstorms in a day, but periods of quiet weather intervene between the storms. 

The heaviest downpours have so far not really hit reporting stations, and my rain gauge isn't out yet. But I'd have to guess I'm closing in on an inch, given the persistence of the afternoon downpours. 

In far northern New York, it's been even weirder. Massena, New York and relatively nearby Ottawa, Canada had freezing rain and thunderstorms pretty much all day. There is some tree damage and local power outages due to the weight of the ice in these areas.

Meanwhile, Buffalo, New York was in the mid-70s early this afternoon. Go figure. 

Going into tonight, it looks like bursts of heavy rain and probably scattered thunderstorms will continue into the evening in northern Vermont. But a trend is about to begin that would taper things off to lighter showers later on.   

I don't see any flash flood watches or similar alerts. But I do see some potential for at least some isolated areas of minor flooding this evening as the occasional downpours continue. 

Since rain in central and southern Vermont looks like it will be lighter, I don't see any real risk of flooding. 

We still have a winter weather advisory in eastern Vermont, basically north of White River. Pockets of freezing rain continue in that area, even if many spots have crept above freezing. This state of affairs will continue for a few hours yet. 

Things will even out and stabilize tomorrow. The weird storm's cold front will come through mostly in the morning, with some relatively light showers. Chilly air behind the cold front won't rush in, but rather gradually bleed in. So it's get into the 50s to around 60 Thursday before temperatures slowly start subsiding in the mid to late afternoon.

We'll have  a couple chilly but not extreme days Friday and Saturday.  The signals from long range forecasts issued today are even stronger than they were for a long stretch of warm and mostly dry weather. That will sort of start Sunday, then really get going in earnest Monday and beyond. 

I won't be the least bit surprised if temperatures in many parts of Vermont get into the 70s later next week.