Picturesque "Goldilocks" Thunderstorms Caused No Real Trouble Wednesday, Weather To Remain OK

A non-severe thunderstorm with a shelf cloud
along its leading edge looking northwestward from 
St. Albans late Wednesday afternoon. 

I love summer thunderstorms, and we haven't had all that many so far this year.

So Wednesday afternoon turned into an unexpected delight as a weak cold front caused a bit more excitement than early forecasts indicated.  

Thunderstorms erupted ahead and along the cold front in Vermont Wednesday afternoon and evening, creating some "safe" drama.

I keep remarking about our current Goldilocks summer, not too hot, not too cold. We even had  Goldilocks thunderstorms yesterday. Fun to look at, but not particularly dangerous. 

There's a couple photos of the storms in this post, and be sure to watch the video I shot at the bottom of this post. 

There had been a low risk that  a few of Wednesday's storms could have briefly strong, damaging winds. However, I've seen no reports of any storm damage. Vermont Outage Map last evening had 4,500 Vermont customers without power. I'm guessing that had to do with lightning strikes, or an isolated falling tree on a power line, probably in northeastern Vermont where one storm got a little rambunctious.

Radar images showed some storms briefly getting strong, but they would then quickly weaken. So, there might have been isolated pockets of fallen branches that either nobody saw or nobody reported. I drove through a fairly strong storm in Sheldon. My guess is peak gusts with that storm were a reasonable 35 mph or so.

I noted just one fallen small, roughly foot 18 long branch in the middle of Route 105 and another, rotten, ten foot long branch from a very dead tree on the side of the road. That branch would have probably fallen on a sunny, breezy day so it doesn't count. 

Turbulent skies over Sheldon, Vermont late Wednesday
afternoon as thunderstorms passed through the area.

The storms north and west of St Albans did have decent shelf clouds, though. Shelf clouds are these sort of low hanging, kind of wedge shape clouds on the front end of many thunderstorms. 

They often look incredibly ominous and scary, but the clouds themselves aren't a danger. People sometimes confuse them with incipient tornadoes but they definitely are not. 

 A shelf cloud often, but not always means the storm coming is severe, so it's best to seek shelter when you see one. Wednesday's shelf clouds were not attached to anything too dangerous, as we noted.

Rainfall wasn't even that impressive with most of the storms. Mostly because the air wasn't particularly humid, so the storms didn't have much moisture to work with. Montpelier reported just 0.17 inches of rain. Burlington had 0.05 inches. A brief downpour here in St. Albans yielded just a tenth of an inch. 

We're heading into a holiday weekend, and the weather looks pretty favorable. The Goldilocks summer continues. 

Today will be gorgeous, although some clouds from a dying complex of thunderstorms over the northern Great Lakes might throw some afternoon clouds our way.

Friday looks briefly hot, before another cold front sweeps through with showers Friday night and Saturday morning. Sunday and Monday look at this point at least partly sunny at this point, with temperatures a wee bit cooler than you'd expect on the Fourth of July. (Highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s) .

Here's some video I shot Wednesday of the non-violent but nice thunderstorms near St. Albans and Sheldon, Vermont. If you don't see the image of the video to hit, click on this link to view: 

A Storm Threat In Vermont This Afternoon, Evening

In this radar image from AccuWeather as of 2:15 today
a cold front was inspiring bands of showers and storms in
much of Quebec, extending into far northwestern New
York. Some of these storms will move into Vermont
later this afternoon and evening. A few storms
could produce gusty winds. 

 Just a heads up that a band of showers with some thunderstorms was in New York's St. Lawrence Valley and west of Montreal as of 2 p.m. and they're heading east.  

That means we're in for some showers, and a few storms after 3 p.m. today and lasting into the evening, latest east.

The storms are most likely in the northern half of Vermont, but could happen anywhere in the state. A few storms might be on the gusty side. All of Vermont, most of New Hampshire and western Maine are in a marginal risk zone for severe storms today, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

That means there could be some isolated instances of strong, damaging winds with this band of storms. Almost everybody will escape the damaging winds. But one or two towns might not be so lucky. 

Many of the showers and storms will have brief downpours and some gusty winds. Some of us will get not much more than sprinkles. Some of us will receive a decent storm. Others will have meh showers. It's the luck of the draw.

The closer you are to the Canadian border, the more likely you are to see a shower or storm today, and the more likely some of the storms will be gusty. As of 2:15 p.m. the strongest showers were in Quebec. So far, there have only been a few lightning strikes, mostly southwest of Montreal and north of Massena, New York. 

The culprit is a weakening cold front coming in from the west. Even though the front is weakening, it still has enough oomph to pool a bit of moisture ahead of the front, providing some fuel for the storms 

Sunshine this morning and early afternoon has added some instability to the air, which will help fuel the storms. 

Tomorrow will be a gorgeous summer day, with sunshine, comfortable temperatures, low humidity and no threat of storms. It still looks like we'll see one rather hot day on Friday before another cold front arrives with more showers Friday night and early Saturday

50 Years Ago Agnes Set Benchmark For Worst Eastern U.S. Flood On Record

Elmira, New York during Tropical Storm 
Agnes flooding, June, 1972

At this point 50 years ago today, the Middle Atlantic States were just beginning to pick up the pieces of what was easily among the worst floods the region had ever experienced.  

The culprit was ex-Hurricane Agnes, an early season tropical system that seemed like not that big a deal until it got halfway up the U.S. East Coast.

Agnes dumped up to two feet of rain on eastern Pennsylvania. The storm killed 128 people - 48 in Pennsylvania alone.  More than 115,000 houses were destroyed or damaged, and more than 360,000 people were forced to evacuate.

It was at the time the most expensive tropical storm in U.S. history.  That record would stand for more than a decade.

Tropical Storm Agnes was more proof that a hurricane need not be strong to unleash havoc. And, former hurricanes can stir up major trouble long after the winds associated with them have died down.   

The spring of 1972 had been wet in the Middle Atlantic region.  That primed the pump for what would happen next. 

Hurricane Agnes splashed ashore as barely a hurricane on June 19,1972.  It caused the usual damage from storm surges, and spun off a couple dozen tornadoes that damaged at least 2,000 structures.

As tropical systems do after landfall, Agnes weakened quickly and the worst seemed over. However, the stage was being set. A cold front over the Great Lakes pulled in some moisture from Agnes, prompting more heavy rains ahead of the main show. That was enough to completely saturate the ground ahead of the main show.   

Which was a bit of a surprise. 

When tropical storms moves off the Southeast Coast, especially early in the hurricane season, they usually continue on to the northeast, out to sea, no longer being a bother to anybody.  Agnes, though, got pulled northwestward by a trough of low pressure pushing southeastward from the southern Great Lakes through Ohio and into Virginia.   

Then, there was nothing coming in from the west to push the remnants of Agnes out. It sat and spun pretty much over Pennsylvania and southwestern New York and just rained itself out. 

With such a wide area receiving 8 to 15 inches of rain, with, as noted, amounts up to two feet, rivers went on a rampage. 

Ground zero was the Susquehanna River, especially around the State Capitol of Harrisburg and the city of Wilkes-Barre. The river crested at 32.8 feet, a full 15 feet above flood state. Of that $3.1 billion in damage from Agnes, $2 billion of that was in the Susquehanna River basin. 

The areas around Corning and Elmira, New York were just as hard hit.  

That water was unbelievable. At the time, I remember news footage of people shoveling mud left behind from flood waters out of second floor windows. 

Flood control efforts since Agnes has spared much of the region from similar or worse storms than that 1972 deluge. Flood walls were raised substantially along the Susquehanna River.  

As the Washington Post notes, Tropical Storm Lee in 2011 caused a crest along that river at Wilkes-Barre even higher than that of Agnes. But flood walls installed after Agnes spared that city and Harrisburg from too much damage.

Other towns aren't so lucky. In the age of climate change, deluges like that from Agnes become more likely. 

Ellicott City, Maryland was devastated by Tropical Storm Agnes floods in 1972.  Turns out that was just a preview of what was to come a few decades later. Six big floods followed in Ellicott City after 1972, including two even stronger inundations in 2016 and 2018. (Just on Wednesday, Ellicott City narrowly escaped another big flood).  

I also recall at the time that Agnes gave Vermont a good scare. Many forecasts had it moving further north and east, putting the Green Mountain State in a huge flood danger But, as we know now, Agnes set its sights on Pennsylvania, southwestern New York and other states in that region.

Since it had been quite a wet month in the Green Mountain State, we were lucky that the rains from Agnes weren't that bad. We only had a few tropical showers in Vermont from Agnes.  Rutland  and Burlingtom ended up picking up about an inch of rain over three days from Agnes. Woodstock got about 1.5 inches of rain.

Vermont's turn for severe flooding would come just a year later. On June 30, 1973, after a wet month, up to 7.5 inches of rain poured down on central and southern parts of the state, causing one of the worst floods in history. 

Record or near record flood crests hit the Black, Ottaquechee, White and Ompmpanoosac rivers. Total flood damage in 1973's Vermont flood was $64 million or $421 million in 2022 dollars.  

Videos

This video is pretty cheesy, but still gives you a glimpse of how bad Agnes got in Pennsylvania's Wyoming Valley.  Click on this link if you don't see the video image on your device:

Some good still pictures in this vide of the flooding from Agnes in Pennsylvania. Click on this link to view, or see below: 

Super 8 mm footage of the flood and aftermath of the Agnes flood around Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. Notice the mud lines up to the eaves of single floor houses in some neighborhoods. Click on this link or view below: 

Big Vermont/NY Downpours Monday, And Wannabe Bonnie Takes Far Southern Cruise

Torrential rains Monday morning wash cars in a 
Burlington, Vermont parking lot. The city recieved
1.2 inches of rain in the storms that passed through. 

 Yeah, it really did pour like crazy in parts of Vermont yesterday morning, didn't it?

Those were some impressive rainfall totals, though not something record breaking.  But it's a sign of the season.  If you're going to get a gullywasher, it's probably going to be in the summer. 

Parts of northern New York and western and northern Vermont got a quick dose of more than an inch of rain. Most of the rain fell an hour or two.   

Gully washers, they were. The most rain reported in the region was right at two inches in Essex, New York. The biggest rainfall totals in Vermont included 1.74 inches in Johnson and 1.68 inches in Hinesburg.

Burlington received 1.2 inches of rain. That wasn't even the wettest June 27 on record. That honor goes to the 1.45 inches that fell on June 27, 1970.

Because of previous heavy rains in northern New York last week, a flood warning was issued for a time in parts of the Adirondacks. I don't have any reports of serious damage.

Much like the heavy rain in New York last week, the downpours weakened some as they crossed over Vermont.  By the time the showers reached the Connecticut River Valley, totals diminished to less than a half inch in most places. 

Plus, all but the extreme northwest corner of Vermont  mostly missed out on the rains last week. So, the National Weather Service issues no flood warnings in Vermont. Instead, they covered the band of rain by issuing special weather statements, warning of torrential rain, poor visibility on roads, hydroplaning and ponding of water on streets and highways. All of which of course happened. 

The one thing we'll need to watch out for now is beach closings along Lake Champlain. Downpours like the one we had Monday unleash waves of phosphorous and other yucko stuff into the lake. Sewage treatment plants also get overwhelmed in these downpours, and that flows in the lake. Lovely!

Downpours such as Monday's might contribute to additional algae blooms in the lake later this summer. To note again, the magnitude of these downpours wasn't all that unusual. If there are problems in Lake Champlain because of Monday's rains, it will be caused by pollution, plain and simple. 

We might get something of a repeat of Monday's downpours Friday night. Very much like Monday morning, moisture will pool along and just ahead of a strong cold front passing through. Severe thunderstorms don't look like they are in the cards, but at this point, it looks like there's potential for additional torrential downpours in spots. We shall see

WANNABE BONNIE'S WAY SOUTHERN CRUISE

A system that's trying to become a tropical storm is current east of the southern Windward Islands and east-northeast of Venezuela. It has top winds of 40 mph, which would (barely) qualify it as a tropical storm. But it doesn't have a well defined circulation, so it's currently being called Potential Tropical Cyclone 2.   

The projected path of Bonnie is awfully far south, near
Venezuela. Usually, these westward moving storms
are later in the season, and much closer to Puerto Rico,
Dominican Republic and Cuba. 

That's a mouthful, so I'm calling it Wannabe Bonnie, because if it does become a tropical storm, they'll name it Bonnie. 

As Dennis Mersereau of DAMweather.com notes, the weird thing about Wannabe Bonnie is how far south it is, and will be. It's forecast to move westward, scraping along the northern coast of Venezuela. 

Most tropical systems are much further north, close to places like Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. This would be a near record south track. 

Plus, this is pretty early for a tropical storm heading westbound in the deep tropics, Mersereau reports. Early season tropical systems usually form even further north, often along the decaying edges of dying cold fronts coming off the Southeast or Gulf Coasts.

The National Hurricane Center says Wannabe Bonnie could well turn into a full-fledged hurricane once it gets past Venezuela and enters the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea. If that happens, the storm will eventually become a big threat to Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama 

Hot Weekend Here, But Elsewhere In The World, Ridiculous! Our Time Will Come, Though

People in Tokyo's Ginza district use umbrellas to shield
themselves from the intense sun during a record heat
wave last Saturday. Photo from AFP-JIJI

We had our first spell of 90 degree weather in the Champlain Valley over the weekend, but it wasn't as hot as it could be. We didn't set any real record highs.  

If you don't like heat, we got off easy. Especially since the hot spell in Vermont was brief, and it wasn't all that humid during this episode.

Elsewhere in the world, though, we're already having another summer of insane record high temperatures. I've already posted about the extreme European heat of a week or two ago, but since then, there have been other incredible hot spots. 

So let's dive in and look.

As the Associated Press reports:

"In China's northern Henan province Friday, Xuchang hit 107.8 degrees and Dengfeng hit 106.9 for their hottest days on record, according to global extreme weather tracker Maximiliano Herrera. And in Japan Friday, Tokamachi and Tsuanan set a time heat records while several cities broke monthly marks, he said." 

No fewer than 25 cities in China recorded their hottest temperature on record for any date of the year Froday. Beijing roasted at 102 degrees.

Tokyo, Japan just tied its record for the hottest June day with a high of 97 degrees, which was also hottest for so early in the season. At least nine other Japanese cities established new all time highs for June. 

Isesaki, a city about 50 miles north of Tokyo, reached 104 degrees Saturday, setting a new June record high for the entire nation of Japan.  

 Way up in Siberia, The town of Tazovskoe set a June record of 90 degrees. Some Arctic islands way up near the North Pole, near 80N have lost all of their snow, the earliest on record that it has disappeared in the summer. 

Parts of the Middle East and central Asia area also baking.  The port cit of Bander-e-Dayyer in Iran reached a whopping 127 degrees this past week.  The temperature reached 113 in Turkmenistan and 112 in Kazakhstan.  

The heat in the United States hasn't set all time records, but it has certainly been widespread.  No fewer than 15 states reported high temperatures of at least 100 degrees on Thursday. 

The hot weather is temporarily easing in the U.S. for the next couple of days, though heat advisories remained in effect for the Pacific Northwest through Monday.  No really extreme heat waves are in store for the nation at least through July 1.

But remember, there's plenty of time for renewed heat waves in July and August throughout the northern hemisphere.

The heat records I mentioned above have been coming fast and furiously.  Same has been true in the last few years, as I've noted above.

Of course, records are made to be broken, so you're always going to see a few record highs and a few record lows broken from time to time. But the fast pace of these heat waves - especially monthly and all time - is a hallmark of climate change.

Climate change is super charging heat waves. What would otherwise be forgettable hot spells have become unprecedented blasts of torrid conditions.

It can happen anywhere, anytime. I've said that so far, we in Vermont have had a Goldilocks summer. Sure it was hot this past weekend and chilly the weekend before, but we haven't had any kind of unprecedented weather so far. 

Overall, this summer is at least starting out cooler than recent ones. But there's nothing stopping us for experiencing heat Vermont has never seen before. It's really a matter of time with climate change. 

I don't know if that will happen this summer, next summer or a few or several summers from now. But eventually, Vermont's all time hottest reading of 105 degrees, set way back in 1911, and Burlington's all time record of 101 set during the World War II year of 1944, will seem quaint and cool. 

 

Hot Summer Weekend In Full Swing; Heat Won't Last Long

Very similar photo to yesterday's post, except now we have
the addition of the kiddie pool to cool off in if I 
get overheated digging in the dirt. 

I suspected today would bring the first 90 degree temperature of the summer to Burlington, Vermont, but I was wrong! 

The warmth on Saturday over-performed, and it did get up to 90 degrees in the Queen City. We have another go at it today, with even hotter weather still in the forecast. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is running with an expected high of 93 degrees in Burlington this afternoon.  Most valley locations in Vermont will be at or close to 90 degrees this afternoon, too.

The NWS usually pulls the trigger and launches a heat advisory if the heat index is expected to get to 95 degrees or above for at least a few hours in the afternoon.  But there's no heat advisory today. The humidity is only moderately high. Plus, some drier air is forecast to mix down from aloft during the hottest part of the day. 

That'll keep us from feeling that hot. But it will be pretty nasty out there for vigorous exercise. Take it easy and take a lot of breaks. 

If I do anything outside in my gardens in St. Albans, Vermont today, I'm prepared. A few years ago, we bought a cheap kiddie pool for the dogs to splash around in if they got too hot. The pups are not interested. So I settle into the kiddie pool when it gets too hot to keep digging around in the dirt.  You gotta find a use for everything, right?

I'm also very prone to frequent "clumsy accidents" with the garden hose during hot weather, so I'm sure I'll have a few of those today.  I would encourage everyone to suffer those "clumsy accidents" today. Perhaps the kids will "mis-aim" the hose when you're on your veranda with your gin and tonic. Don't say you read that here, kiddos! 

Today is also a great beach day, with a few caveats.  The sun is at its strongest of the season, so really smear that sun screen on.  The water temperatures in the lakes is still a bit nippy, so watch out for that. And on the broad Lake Champlain, gusty south winds will cause some choppy water and hazards for canoes, kayaks and things like that, so be careful.

That cold front is still forecast to come through overnight. Most of us will see some showers and thunderstorms on this upcoming muggy night. Forecasters are not expecting anything severe, other than some brief torrential downpours in spots.

You'll notice how much cooler and less humid it will be by Monday afternoon.  It should be a nice week overall. Tuesday will be a little cool for this time of year - in the 70s. Very nice, with low humidity. Can't complain about that! 

The week will gradually turn warmer and somewhat more humid, but again, nothing all that extreme. The hottest day looks like it might be Friday. If there's enough sun, we'll get back up into the 85-90 degree range. But another cold front will be on our doorstep to cool us off again. 

We're still looking at no long lasting heat waves at least into the first ten days of July.

June So Far Relatively Cool, But A Rather Hot Weekend Is Upon Us, For A Change

The yellow wheelbarrow signals more garden work for
me this weekend in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. But
expected hot weather means I'll need to take frequent
breaks, and probably retreat to a cool room 
for a good part of Sunday afternoon. 

 After a cool, springlike or autumnal week, whatever your perspective, Friday was actually a re-entry into summer in all respects.   

The sun was out most of the late morning and afternoon, many of us reached 80 degrees and there was a bit of humidity in the air. Not much, but the crispness of the previous week was gone. 

Now, we're set up for a hot summer weekend. Today will be quite a contrast from the chill of last Saturday. It will be a good 30 degrees warmer this afternoon than last Saturday.  Which means it will be in the mid 80s. There will be a decent amount of sunshine, too, and a moderate amount of humidity. 

Sunday gets even hotter. Depending upon the amount of sun we get, Burlington might finally see its first 90 degree reading of the year (Montpelier and St. Johnsbury managed 90 degrees during a period of record heat in mid-May).

For what it's worth, forecast trends have turned up the heat a bit on Sunday, which would improve chances of it hitting 90 degrees. On the other hand, if an approaching cold front is a little faster, that could throw extra clouds in to limit temperatures. Another round of somewhat gusty south winds could limit the chances of 90 degrees.

I'd say the chances of a 90 degree reading Sunday in Burlington are better than 50/50.  Whether it's 90 degrees or not where you live won't matter much. It will feel hot. 

It'll be more humid on Sunday, too. Which means you won't want to overexert yourself. Take frequent breaks, and if possible, get your butt into an air conditioned room whenever you can. It hasn't really been super hot in over a month, so we're not used to it. 

 Last weekend was probably too cold for hiking safely. This weekend might be too hot to do the same. 

That cold front coming in from the west will likely spread a good swath of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday evening through Monday morning, west to east.  Some showers and storms will produce locally torrential rain.  That could raise a few local flash flood issues in northern New York, where it was so wet last week.

In Vermont, it's been drier, so I don't think Sunday night's rain will do much other than give gardens another nice drink. 

This heat won't last long, because we're still in a weather pattern that doesn't promote a lot of hot weather in New England.  It'll be dramatically cooler Monday. Nothing out of the ordinary like last weekend, just seasonable. 

It'll get on the warm side again by the end of the week, but that warming trend will get cut off at the pass by another cold front. I still don't see signs of any long lasting heat waves through the first week of July and probably beyond.  

Spongy Caterpillars Again Laying Waste To Swaths Of Vermont Forest

A gloomy January day or mid-June. This is part of 
Colchester, Vermont where trees are under siege
from the defoliating spongy caterpillars.

 As I'm sure many of you have noticed, large sections of Vermont woods are defoliated for the second year in a row by those awful spongy caterpillars. 

The name of these caterpillars might not be familiar to you, but the destruction sure is.  Until recently, these awful bugs had a name that was a slur agains the Roma ethnic group. 

We had the same problem last summer, of course. Eventually, a fungus that kills these things helps ease the outbreaks. But apparently, this spring wasn't wet enough to make the fungus thrive, so the caterpillars did instead. 

Some places, like parts of Chittenden and western Rutland counties, are getting hit for the second year in a row. Other places, like much of Franklin County, don't have it as bad as they did last year.

Most trees survive these defoliations, even if they hit two years in a row. At least as long as the trees can put out some new leaves in the second half of summer, once the caterpillars stop eating.

I did notice, though, that this spring, the defoliation in some places started as soon as the trees began leafing out. Last year, most affected trees had leaves into at least early June which helped them withstand the onslaught a little better. 

I do think we will see dead trees in the hardest hit areas of Vermont after this second season of the scourge. Sure, most of the affected trees will live, but not all of them.

In the hardest hit areas, like in parts of Colchester, it looks like the dead of winter the defoliation is so complete.

Although this situation isn't widespread enough to noticeably affect the weather overall in Vermont, the areas that got really nailed by the caterpillars are probably seeing their local conditions affected and will continue to see that unless or until the leaves come back.  

Summer days will be hotter in these defoliated zones, since the sun is baking the ground. Leaves are no longer in place to provide shade. so the heated ground will in turn heat the air. Also. leaves have a cooling and cleansing effect on the environment. That's gone, so the heat is on.

If we have any dry spells, the defoliation can contribute to highly local droughts. The ground dries out much faster in areas with no foliage.  The lack of foliage also heightens the risk of small brush fires since leaf litter and branches and stuff  get super dry super fast without leaves overhead. 

The biggest negative effect is probably psychological. We still have our long winters here in Vermont, so we look forward to the lush green, leafy landscape of the relatively short summers. The spongy caterpillars are taking that away from at least some of us. 

It's unclear how many more years of this we have to go through before the spongy caterpillar boom finally ends. We can hope for a wetter, foggier, cloudier and more damp spring next year to encourage that fungus. 

Video:

Extensive defoliation of trees in Colchester, Vermont last week.  If you don't see the image for the video in this post, click on this link to view:

Heavy Rain Band Mostly Misses Vermont In This Goldilocks Summer

So far this summer, we've barely had to water the flowers
in St. Albans, Vermont. Relatively light but
consistent rains have been doing the work for us.

 As expected, a narrow north to south oriented , heavy rain band set up over northern New York and western  Quebec overnight, dumping one to locally as much as three inches of rain. 

One confirmed report was 1.77 inches of rain in Ile Perrot, Quebec, west of Montreal, bringing the month's total there to six inches. 

There might be some spot flooding here and there in the mountains of northern New York or southwestern Quebec,   but so far, we have no reports of anything wild.  I'm just impressed by how well this was forecast. 

 It was a tricky one, but the National Weather Service office in South Burlington and all the local meteorologists around here got this one right. Both in the location of the rain and how much fell. 

Further to the south and west in the humid air yesterday, severe thunderstorms struck from western New York southward into Virginia. Some of the storms in Virginia were especially fierce, causing damage to a number of homes and businesses and felling thousands of trees. 

Here in Vermont, we're continuing to experience a Goldilocks kind of summer, a couple of cold, windy days last weekend notwithstanding.  Most of the time over the past few weeks, we've seen no real temperature extremes and no real super wet or super dry spells.  Not too hot, not too cold, not too dry, not too wet. We haven't had much in the way of severe storms, either. 

That's a departure from most recent Junes, which featured torrid, record-breaking heat waves and drought. 

This Goldilocks trend looks like it will continue. That rain band in New York was slowly moving into Vermont early this morning.  It was raining at a good clip in St. Albans as of 7 a.m., but the sun was shining over eastern Vermont.

The rain band will slowly weaken as it grudgingly moves further into the Green Mountain State.     The northwestern corner of Vermont will see the most rain, perhaps up to a half inch. By the time what's left of this reaches central and eastern Vermont, it will only drop a tenth of an inch or so of rain. No biggie.

Today will be the sixth and last day in a row with cool temperatures in Vermont. The clouds today will hold temperatures down in the 60s to around 70.

Channeling our inner Annie, the sun will come out tomorrow, giving us a fine summer day with readings up near 80 degrees. It will actually turn kind of hot over the weekend with 80s on Saturday and some places nearing 90 degrees Sunday. 

Burlington has a shot at reaching 90 degrees Sunday for the first time this year. For comparison's sake, it had already been at least 90 degrees five times by this date last year and nine times in 2020. So yeah, we've caught a break so far this summer.

A cold front Sunday night will return us to cooler, comfortable weather early next week.  The front won't bring any excessive rains or severe thunderstorms. Instead we'll just get a quick drink of water for the gardens.

Extended forecasts continue with the Goldilocks theme. At this point, it looks like we'll continue to have near normal temperatures and rainfall through the first week of July.

Jet Stream Meanderings Responsible For Weird Weather, Areas Of Record Heat

A quick morning downpour today precluded breakfast out
on the deck, but gave the plants a nice watering. 

The weird weather pattern since yesterday has pretty much worked out as forecast.  Which is an accomplishment.   When the weather is odd, the chances that a forecast will be dead wrong go way up. Not on this case, so far. 

Batches of showers and thunderstorms have been heading due south from Canada, mostly moving through New York and Pennsylvania, and for the most part bypassing Vermont.

One patch of showers did wander into Vermont this morning, dropping a quick quarter to third of an inch of rain to some areas, just to water the gardens a bit. w 

The conga line of storms and showers will renew themselves later today and tonight, again proceeding south through New York and Pennsylvania.  These repeated rounds of heavy rains could lead to local flooding in both states.  Vermont looks safe from that, anyway, but it does remain cool for the season. It will stay on the cool side until Friday. 

Meanwhile, western and central Europe is recovering from the opposite problem - a record breaking heatwave. Some cities reported all-time record highs, and others set records for the entire month of June. 

Examples cited by the Washington Post include:

The French cities of Biarritz (109.2 degrees), Rochefort Saint-Aignan (105.1 degrees) and Tarbes (102.6 degrees) set all time record highs over the weekend. Roughly 200 cities in France established new record highs for the month of June.

In Spains's Basque area, San Sebastian reached 111 degrees, breaking its all time record high by a wide margin.  

The Czech Republic established a new record high for the month of June with a Sunday temperature of 102.2 degrees in Husinec.  

Poland set a new June record with a high of 100.9 degrees in Slubice. Switzerland also established a new June record high of 98.4 degrees in Beznau.  

Meanwhile, the record heat also grinds on in the Midwest and South in the United States. Minneapolis hit 101 degrees on Monday, a record high and their first 100 degree temperature since 2018. record highs of near 100 degrees are in the forecast for southern cities like Atlanta.

The heat in Europe and the middle of the United States, and the cool, weird weather here are all related. 

The jet stream, which guides weather systems generally west to east across the Northern Hemisphere  normally has lots of bumps to the north and dips to the south. It's usually hot under the northward bulges and cooler under the dips. 

In the summer, the dips and bulges in the jet stream aren't as pronounced and big as they are in the winter. So, more often than not, the hot areas are only kind of hot and the cool areas are just kind of cool.

But the jet stream in the past few days has featured huge northward bulges and big plunges to the south, which is odd for this time of year. So, the extremes have been pretty extreme. On top of that, the bulges and dips haven't been moving around much so everybody gets stuck under roughly the same weather day to day. 

That's why there's a flood threat in New York and Pennsylvania. Those storms from Canada keep going over the same spots. 

Climate change is a factor, too.  The heat under those northward bulges in the jet stream in central North America and Europe is given an added boost by global temperatures that have risen in the past several decades.  Temperatures that would have just missed hitting a record high, say, in the 1970s are now smashing records.

These bigger than normal summertime bulges and dips in the jet stream might also be related to climate change. The science is still uncertain with this. But some experts think that because the Arctic is warming faster than the mid-latitudes, there's less of a north to south temperature contrast.

The jet stream thrives on a big contrast and in those conditions behaves itself. The theory goes that the relative lack of a contrast between the North Pole and down where we live is making the jet stream meander more than it would otherwise. 

That meandering jet stream gives us those big bulges northward where they had the heat waves, and those big plunges south, one of which has given us the past week's worth of cool, odd and unsettled weather. 

The jet stream looks like it will untangle itself a bit in the coming days,  hopefully resulting in more or less average summer weather for most of us. 

Weird Weather Week Continue: Next Up: Narrow Bands Of Heavy Rain

Forecasts are consistently calling for a strange
north to south band of heavy rain somewhere near
Vermont this week. Most models, like the European
 depicted here, keep that heavy rain just to the 
west of Vermont. A tricky forecast that could
change, though. 

 A week or so of very strange June weather is continuing in and near Vermont this week with a very odd rain set up today and tomorrow. And possibly Thursday. 

It started Saturday with New England's June-uary, with snow and ice atop Mount Washington and frigid for June valley temperatures. Then came Sunday's sunny day wind storm, as we had a gloriously sunny day with winds strong enough to cause power failures. Next up: A strange, narrow, hard to predict band of torrential rains.  

This week might not be remembered for generations like big weather disasters. But for this weather geek, it's a bizarre stretch for sure. 

The set up is a north to south oriented stalling warm front in New York State.  Batches of rain are riding this front due south from Canada. Usually precipitation coming in from the north isn't very heavy, since the source region isn't exactly super tropical and wet. After all, why do you think the ginger ale brand is Canada Dry?

However, the air to the west of the warm front is part of that extremely hot, extremely humid air mass that has been torturing sections of the Midwest lately. The disturbance blasting southward along the front will be grabbing some of that wet, hot air and squeezing out lots of rain. 

The band of rain will be narrow. If there's any flood risk, it would be along a narrow 25 to at most 50 mile wide zone.  Best guess right now is the highest risk of heavy rain goes from the northern St. Lawrence Valley, down through parts of the Adirondacks, the Hudson Valley of New York and southwestern New England. 

That would leave Vermont mostly free of any potential flood threat.  Western Vermont will probably get some showers.    It's questionable whether eastern Vermont sees any rain at all from this. 

This is tricky, though, as it wouldn't take much to shift the rain band a little west, or a little to the east. 

A slight shift would radically change the forecast in any given spot.  As an illustration of how big the expected precipitation gradient will be here's this. The National Weather Service in South Burlington has St. Albans receiving just 0.08 inches of rain by Wednesday morning, while Plattsburgh, New York, just 20 miles away as the crow flies, gets nearly half an inch.  The central Adirondacks, just a short distance west of Plattsburgh, are in line for the potentially heaviest rain. 

I could clearly view this whole thing setting up from my perch in St. Albans early this morning.  The sun shone brightly from the east for a bit, but there were clouds directly overhead and I can see a good batch of rain falling to my west over the Adirondacks. 

Again note these forecasts are subject to change.

Things taper off for a time Wednesday. Then on Thursday, meteorologists think this stalled weather front in New York will interact with a storm off the New England coast to perhaps set up another very narrow band of heavy rain somewhere over eastern New York or perhaps western Vermont. Maybe. 

Weather forecasting is generally a little easier in the summer than in the winter. Not this week! 

The Un-June: Windy And Chilly, But At Least We're Avoiding That Awful Heat

A nice sunny day, but strong winds swaying 
trees in West Rutland, Vermont on Sunday. 

 First the snow, then the wind, then the autumnal morning.

This has been quite a cold snap for June here in New England. We've already covered the cold rain and ice in the mountain peaks. Sunday brought us some odd winds, and there's one or two spots of frost to talk about this morning. 

First, Sunday's wind. If you thought those gusts all day Sunday were odd for this time of year, you are right. Usually, gusts in the 40 mph range this time of year only occur near or in strong thunderstorms. But the sky was deep blue mixed with scattered clouds, and it was a nice day, really.

But those winds! At one point up to 6,000 Vermont customers were without power Sunday.  I was in West Rutland, Vermont Sunday and I could hear twigs and small branches breaking off in the woods much of the day. 

It's been an odd, windy stretch. Yesterday was the fourth day in a row where Burlington had gusts exceeding 30 mph.  That happens a lot in the winter, but in June such a stretch is very rare.

Winds calmed down last night and we don't have to worry about more strong winds for awhile.  The last salvo in this weird spell of weather is the cold temperatures this morning.  The coldest hollows surely had a touch of frost. 

It was 33 degrees early this morning in Saranac Lake, New York.  As of 4 a.m, it was 34 degrees in Island Pond, Vermont, and it might have gotten a little colder after that. Whitefield, New Hampshire clocked in at 32 degrees early today. 

It looks like at least a couple dozen record lows have been broken or tied this morning along the East Coast from New England all the way to Georgia. 

It'll stay on the cool side for the next few days, but nothing like we saw over the weekend.  A warm front will stall just to our west, so the warm, humid air won't quite be able to work in. There could be some showers west of the Green Mountains with this Tuesday and Tuesday night, but I wouldn't get too worked up about the chances for any decent rains with this 

Starting Wednesday and going into the weekend, the forecast does seem challenging and subject to change, so I'll just let that rest for now.

Video:

Strong winds blow through the trees Sunday in West Rutland, Vermont. A gorgeous blue sky day, but that wind! If you don't see the image for the video on your device, click on this link: 

New England/North Country June Cold Snap Set Records, Created Snow

Looking just a bit wintry at the summit of Mount
Washington, New Hampshire Saturday with snow
and ice. The Observatory there is calling this
weekend's weather "Juneuary"

 That weird June cold snap we're experiencing is behaving just as expected, having kept us shivering Saturday and likely to leave us unable to keep our hats on today, a windy Sunday. 

Burlington, Vermont's "high" temperature yesterday was 55 degrees, setting a record for the coldest high temperature on record for the date. The old record was 56 degrees in 1959. 

Plattsburgh, New York also set a record Saturday for coldest high temperature for the date, with a reading of 57 degrees.

 Low temperature records still happen from time to time, of course, but they've become more rare with climate change. 

Most of the time, if we set a record, it's for warmth,  not cold.  No record highs are in our immediate future.

Yesterday's high temperature in Burlington was three degrees colder than the normal low temperature for the date.

But at least the coldest weather in Vermont has passed, except for some towns overnight tonight. More on that in a moment. 

Mount Washington, New Hampshire, recorded 1.3 inches of snow and sleet Saturday. But most of the time Saturday up there on New England's highest peak, they were getting freezing rain.  It must be so slick and dangerous up there this morning. It was still 27 degrees at the Mount Washington summit as I wrote this at around 7 a.m. Sunday.

We also saw video of snowflakes atop Whiteface Mountain, New York, elevation 4,867 feet or so.

I don't think we managed to receive any snow in Vermont Saturday, unless the summit of Jay Peak saw a flake or two. (Jay Peak was a bit closer to the core of the cold air Saturday).   

It looks like the summit of Mount Mansfield was just a little too warm for snow.  Temperatures there hovered near 40 degrees Saturday.

If this were a colder season, you would have really seen some deep mountain snows, as the upslope winds on the west side of the Greens really cranked out the moisture. Mount Mansfield had an inch of rain Saturday.

Valleys received very little. Burlington logged in with a quarter inch of rain. Most valley areas outside the northern Champlain Valley and away from the western slopes only managed a tenth of an inch or so.

Lots of people grumbled about this weekend's unseasonable chill. But this blog is all about me, me, Me !!!  I got lucky. I have a project this weekend that involves lots and lots of physical labor.  I wilt in hot weather, so this cool weekend was a blessing. I embraced it.  

The coldest weather today will be east and north of us. Caribou, Maine, is expected a "balmy" high temperature of 48 degrees today, which like in Burlington yesterday, is colder than the normal low for the date. 

We'll have more sun today, especially west of the Green Mountains. The sun's heat will allow cool air aloft to mixed down, which will produce gusty winds.  Lots of us will see gusts to 35 mph or so today. 

Winds will die down tonight, which will allow it to get pretty chilly.  I imagine the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks could see some patchy frost. The vast majority of us will go down into the 40s. 

While the first half of the week will be cooler than normal, it won't be that odd for June.

The next big weather question mark is on Tuesday. A warm front will approach us, but stall either over western Vermont or New York. Disturbances will blast north to south along this warm front. 

It is just about impossible to tell at this point where they'll blast through, and exactly when.  There's a chance that somebody around Vermont or eastern New York could see some locally heavy rain. But the forecast is so tricky that nobody knows if that heavy rain will get going and if so, where. 

Stay tuned, I guess.

The second half of the week will bring us back to the regularly scheduled normal June programming

Cold Snap Is Here, Thankfully Summer Returns In Just A Few Days

Photo from New Hampshire's Mount Washington 
Observatory shows rime ice forming this morning atop
the mountain, where it was 28 degrees at dawn. 

The last and strongest of series of cold fronts blasted through Vermont overnight with a gush of strong north winds and ever so brief downpours. Welcome now to October in June.  

Or maybe January if you're way up high.  When you get these weird bowling balls of chilly air coming down from the North Pole this time of year, it tends to stay warmish in the valleys, but the mountains cool off fast. 

And they did.

What a lovely morning to report from atop Mount Washington. As of early this morning, the temperature there was 28 degrees with dense fog as they're in the clouds. Rime ice is forming up there.  The wind on Mount Washington was northwest at 62 mph, yielding a wind chill of 8 above.

I looked at the Whiteface Mountain, New York webcam   at an elevation of about 4,800 feet and of course all I could see was dense fog. They're in the clouds. I couldn't tell if that was ice or water on the camera lens. 

It wasn't quite so bad atop Vermont's Mount Mansfield, and so far at least, it appears to be too warm for snow up there.   At last check this morning, it was 39 degrees up there with a northwest wind gusting to 55 mph. 

As advertised, today is not a great day for a hike.'

Even in the lowlands. We're starting the day with temperatures that actually aren't that unusual for this time of year. Most of us were in the upper 40s to low 50s as dawn broke.

Trouble is, temperatures just won't rise much by afternoon. Especially in northern Vermont, which has a higher chance of rain today.

Most of the area north of Route 2 will rain lightly most of the day, with a stiff northwest wind holding temperatures in the low 50s..We're still actually looking at "high" temperatures in the 40s in parts of the Northeast Kingdom.

With such low temperatures today, we're lucky skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy tonight and a breeze will continue. That will prevent anyone from getting a late season frost.

We in northern New England can consider ourselves the odd man out, given how many places are having record breaking heat waves.

France, Germany and other western European nations are expecting the hottest temperatures for so early in the season over this weekend.  France already logged temperatures as high as 104 degrees Friday, which for them is the earliest recorded.

The hot dry weather has already helped set forests ablaze in Spain and Germany.

Heat is also building once again in the middle of the United States. Head advisories and warnings are in effect for places as far north as the Canadian border in North Dakota. 

Even the normally sultry South is expecting worse heat than normal, with heat advisories from Louisiana to Florida. Orlando, Florida could hit 100 degrees for the first time in several years today.  It's as bad a day to visit Disney as it is for a hike in Vermont.

Places like Mississippi and Alabama are expecting highs in the 95 to 100 degree range daily for at least a week.

That heat dome in the middle of the nation will actually help free us from the current autumn in summer weekend.  It'll wobble a little east, and the overall jet stream pattern will flatten.  That will allow warmer air to sneak in from the west as the week goes on.

Thankfully, the bulk of the heat will stay well to our west. It'll gradually warm up, and from Wednesday onward into next weekend, we should see highs temperatures in the low 80s, which would actually be a wee bit warmer than normal for late June. Won't that be nice?

Big Storms Died On Approach To Vermont As Expected; Few Storms Today, Shocking Cold Weekend

Those big blobs you see in this satellite photo near 
western and northern New York and over Montreal are
intense late afternoon thunderstorms Thursday.
They rapidly weakened later as they moved into Vermont.

 From a weather geek's perspective, anyway, it was fascinating to watch how relatively stable air over Vermont chewed up, destroyed and spit out what had been some powerful thunderstorms approaching from the west and north Thursday evening. 

There had been a tornado watch out for all but eastern New York. It felt like tornado weather here in Vermont too, as winds became strong and gusty from the south, seemingly feeding  into the line of storms and supercells over the St. Lawrence River Valley and near Montreal.

The storms caused flooding and wind damage around Montreal.  Many trees and power lines came down in northwestern and far northern New York, too. 

Radar showed one severe storm managed to make it all the way into far northwestern Vermont  before dying out as it approached Jay Peak.  That storm pounded Highgate with hail at least the size of quarter, and cars there are reportedly dented.  

Just a little to the south and east was me, in St. Albans. The approaching storm looked menacing, a solid line of black to my west in New York State.  By the time the storm was overhead, though, it was just a gentle thundershower. I saw a few cloud to cloud lightning strokes. Winds gusted to about 30 mph under the storm, which was actually calmer than the winds in the hours leading up to the storm. Rainfall was moderate. 

By the time the storms reached Burlington, they could only muster 0.04 inches of rain. 

Another couple of cold fronts are coming through today. They'll set off more showers and storms.  Almost everybody will have at least a sprinkle. The showers were passing through northwestern Vermont this morning. 

Storms looked ominous on approach to St. Albans, 
Vermont Thursday evening, but were rather gentle
by the time they rolled into town. 

A few lucky devils might see some gusty winds and small hail, especially east of the Green Mountains. That's because there will be a few hours of heating before the showers get there. The sun's heat will help destabilize the air, giving a little extra energy to the showers and storms. 

Then "winter" arrives.

COLD WAVE TO IMPRESS

After seasonable temperatures in the 70s to around 80, the second cold front comes through this evening, and that one will mean business. 

Temperatures will crash this evening and overnight to the 40s to around 50 by dawn. That's not so bad, but then readings won't go up much tomorrow.

Saturday's weather is actually a classic winter upslope snow event. In those winter situations, cold northwest winds go up and over the Green Mountains dumping half a foot or a foot of snow on the mountains. The snow showers often back up into the Champlain Valley, so a couple to a few inches of snow pile up there, too.

But it's June. It's pretty hard to get snow near the Summer Solstice. That said, it's still looking cold enough for some wet snow flakes Saturday morning at the summits of the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. That's pretty unusual for late June. 

The chill tomorrow is also impressive.  Light rain now expected most of the day in the Champlain Valley will keep things particularly chilly. The record for lowest high temperature for Saturday is 56 degrees, and that might well be challenged.

Some colder spots in mid to high elevations and in the Northeast Kingdom might not get out of the 40s Saturday afternoon. Brisk north winds will make things feel even colder.

Though the coldest hollows might get into the 30s at night during this cold snap, it's good to know it won't get quite nippy enough to produce late season frost. 

The strong upper level low causing this summer chill is looking like it will move out more slowly than earlier forecasts indicated. So Sunday is looking a little cloudier, and a little colder than first forecast. Western Vermont could see highs topping 60 degrees Sunday, while eastern Vermont, especially north of White River Junction stays in the 50s. 

That's still very, very cold for June.

We're still looking at a slow warmup to seasonable weather once again by midweek, so summer ain't over, despite this weekend's very autumnal chill.

Worst Storms Still To Miss Us; Vermont Saturday To Be Even Colder Than First Thought, Baking Elsewhere

UPDATE: 4 p.m. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is focusing on the
red circle, and especially the pink circle within it,
as the likeliest spot for a tornado or two this evening.
Despite the close proximity of Vermont to this.
storms are expected to weaken sharply as they
approach the Green Mountain State later this evening. 

Normally, if I looked at the way radar and satellite images look now, I'd say things look ominous for Vermont. But I'm still not super concerned. 

True, rotating supercells have erupted in southern Ontario and Quebec and are edging into western New York.

A tornado watch is in effect as far east as the central Adirondacks.

In the St. Lawrence Valley, temperatures are well into the 80s and dew points are in the low 70s, extremely humid.  That's a trigger to sustain those storms.

The humidity extends all the way northeastward to Montreal. 

We'll probably hear a number of damage reports from Ontario, Quebec, New York and Pennsylvania today. Forecasters see a tornado threat late this afternoon in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York and central parts of that state. 

However, we in Vermont still seem protected from these storms, as awful as this looks on paper. More stable, slightly cooler air is still circulating into Vermont on strong southeast winds.  Temperatures are lower and dew points are only in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Still, the humidity has crept up a bit in northwestern Vermont.  A lone thunderstorm in northern Vermont this morning proved we can sustain some storms. 

However, those powerful storms still look like they will be in a sharp weakening trend as they move toward and into Vermont later this evening. Stable air from the Atlantic is the bane of severe storms. It will be interesting to see how fast the storms weaken.

Still, I do see the possibility of some decent lightning, some downpours and even perhaps gusty winds over northwestern Vermont especially this evening.  This is especially true if more of that stable air erodes out of the New York side of the Champlain Valley. 

It won't be nearly as dangerous as it is in New York State now, but there's still a low chance of a relatively strong storm in Vermont. However, we still appear to be dodging another bullet. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Enjoy the summer-ish weather today and to a certain extent tomorrow, because summer in Vermont is about to go on hiatus for a few days. 

Meanwhile, forecasts are consistent that powerful, sometimes severe thunderstorms expected to erupt in western and central New York today will either miss us entirely by going to our south, or just fizzling out on their way to the Green Mountain State. 

Some of us did manage to get a little rain this morning as once was a cluster of thunderstorms decayed into showers as they zipped through New York and Vermont. 

Most of rest of today should stay pretty much rain-free, with maybe just a few isolated showers. We'll deal with gusty south winds, especially in the Champlain Valley. It'll be a little more humid, too, as temperatures once again get up to about 80 degrees or so. 

Those decaying showers and storms should move into Vermont this evening. They will have weakened rapidly by the time they get to Vermont because much of today's air is coming from the Atlantic Ocean. That air tends to be stable and not able to support the updrafts that keep thunderstorms going. 

Still, many of us will see rain, and some rumbles of thunder. That stable air near the surface means there could be a bit of a temperature inversion.  If that happens and it thunders, the thunder might seem louder, and more rolling and a bit more strange than how we usually hear it. 

This first round will be Cold Front #1. The air behind this first one isn't that cold, so we'll still pop up into the seasonable 70s to around 80 Friday. Then Cold Front #2 comes in with its own batch of showers and storms Friday. 

It looks like Vermont continues its charmed life. Though a few storms might be strong-ish, particularly in eastern Vermont, most of any severe storms that due form would be east or south of us. 

COLD WAVE

Trends have been for making the anticipated June chill this weekend even chillier than we first thought. Definitely bring your fleece to whatever outdoor event you might be going to. 

It now appears temperatures Saturday afternoon will stay in the 50s for the vast majority of the area. Basically, high temperatures Saturday will be the same or even a little colder than what is normally our low temperatures for this time of year. 

It's even possible that the coldest places in the Northeast Kingdom could stay in the upper 40s. I did a spot check of National Weather Service forecasts up that way. A for instance is the remote town of Averill. The expected "high" temperature there Saturday is 47 degrees.  Brrr!

Northwest winds gusting to 30 mph will actually add a wind chill to the mix.  Light, but cold showers will be scattered around as well.

Yesterday, I speculated about snow atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire. That looks even more likely now. There could even be some wet snow flakes Saturday morning on the summits of mountains like Camels Hump, Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak. 

Thankfully, there probably will be too many clouds and too many breezes to create any kind of nighttime frost threat, except perhaps in the most protected, coldest valleys of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. 

It'll be a little better on Sunday. We'll see more periods of sun. Northwest winds will remain brisk but not as gusty as on Saturday. And highs will get into the 60s. That's still quite cold for this time of year, but not as awful.

Trends continue to bring our temperatures back up to near or just a smidge below normal for the first half of next week, so this extremely early preview of autumn won't last all that long.

By the way, the expected chill in northern New England and Quebec this weekend is an exception.  There's always hot and cold spots somewhere on Earth.  The hot spots this weekend will be quite hot. 

Parts of western Europe will be close to record highs for so early in the summer. Record heat has baked much of the central U.S. for the past few days  That heat is forecast to reassert itself and become intense again across large swaths of the central and southern U.S. this weekend and early next week.

Many more record high temperatures are expected to fall in much of the U.S. through at least early next week. Just not here in Vermont. 

One More Nice Day, Then Big Changes Still Scheduled

Severe storms are expected to develop in New York State\
tomorrow. Vermont looks like it will continue to live
its charmed life as the storms are forecast to fizzle
on approach to Vermont 

 Yesterday was about as fine a June day as you can get in Vermont.  We had those blue skies mixed with puffy clouds warm temperatures and comfortable humidity. What's not to love about it?

If you missed out on this, you have another chance today. 

Then the weather gets unsettled, but Vermont will continue to lead its charmed life: A threat of severe storms later tomorrow will fizzle as they approach the Green Mountain State.

For several days, we've been watching severe weather dance along the edges of a torrid heat wave baking the South and middle of the nation.

A warm front tomorrow will make that heat come closer to us, but not quite make it into the area.  The warmth and humidity will soar across pretty much all of New York State except the extreme eastern part of Empire State.

Here in Vermont, it will turn warmish and somewhat more humid on Thursday, but it won't be anything extreme.

The oppressive air in New York State will set the stage for possible severe thunderstorms there. All of New York west of the Hudson Valley and Adirondacks are under a slight risk level of severe weather. There could even be a brief tornado or two in the western half of New York and Pennsylvania.

These storms might end up looking ominous on radar for us Vermonters. After all, severe storms that develop in New York often end up here. 

But the air will be much more stable here. The storms are expected to rapidly weaken on approach. Sure, there will be a fair number of showers around Thursday evening and night and there could be some rumbles of thunder, but at this point, severe weather is not looking like much of a threat to us.

I'll update of course if the air turns out to be more humid and unstable than current forecasts show.

Friday will be another transition day as that unusually strong June cool spell starts headed into our neck of the woods.  We should see more showers around, especially north. Though it will probably make it into the seasonable 70s during the day, you'll notice it cooling off later in the afternoon and night. 

Saturday looks cold for this time of year. It is June, though, so it can't get that nippy.  Still, highs then will only make it into the low 60s north, and mid to upper 60s southern Valleys. The Northeast Kingdom probably won't even make it out of the 50s for highs. 

The record for the lowest 'high" temperature in Burlington for Saturday's date is 56 degrees in 1959. That record does seem safe. But normal high temperatures this time of year should be in the mid and upper 70s, so yeah, bring your fleece if you're going to some sort of outdoor event Saturday.

The sun is as strong as it can get this time of year.  That means the sun's heat will create updrafts that will create scattered, chilly showers. Those showers will produce downdrafts that will grab even colder air from aloft. Which means it will feel quite cold under those showers. If you do get caught in a shower Saturday afternoon, temperatures might briefly dip down into the 50s. 

I certainly don't think it will be cold enough for snow at summit level in the Green Mountains, but I'll be interested to see if the top of New Hampshire's Mount Washington sees any flurries on Saturday. In any event, Saturday won't be a great day for a mountain hike. 

It'll warm up somewhat after Saturday, but temperatures will remain a little below normal at least into the middle of next week.

 

Another Derecho, This Time In Midwest, And Yellowstone Drowns

All those blue and black dots extending from Wisconsin
 to West Virginia represent storm damage reports from
an apparent derecho yesterday and last night. 

 Along the western, northern and eastern edges of big heat waves, you often see violent thunderstorms, the so called "Ring Of Fire" I talked about earlier this week. 

That is certainly the case with the current record heat wave gripping the middle and south of the nation. An apparent derecho formed yesterday afternoon, bringing winds gusts of up to 84 mph at Chicago's O'Hare Airport and a 98 mph gust to Fort Wayne, Indiana.

Meanwhile, out on the northwest edge of the heat, an unprecedented flood hit areas in and near Yellowstone National Park.

DERECHO

It's already been a bad year for derechos, which are defined as damaging and dangerous thunderstorm complexes that travel at least 240 miles, spreading destruction along the way. 

I don't think it's been officially declared yet, but it's apparent a derecho originated in southern Wisconsin Monday afternoon, then roared southeastward through the Chicago area, Indiana, Ohio and into West Virginia. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 382 thunderstorm wind reports yesterday and last night, most of them in the Wisconsin to West Virginia swath. 

In Chicago, tornado sirens blared and echoed around downtown skyscrapers. No tornado is known so far to have touched down, but there was plenty of wind damage with those 84 mph gusts. Many cars and houses were damaged by falling trees. The roof of a three story apartment building peeled away. 

Travelers at O'Hare were ordered into below ground shelters or packed themselves into rest rooms, which double as tornado shelters. The air traffic control tower was evacuated, there was obviously a ground stop on all flights, so everything was and still is badly disrupted. Some planes had to be checked for hail damage before being allowed to fly. 

At least 44,000 people were without power. Some won't have their power back until after today. Record heat and humidity is forecast today in Chicago.

That 98 mph wind gust in Fort Wayne is the strongest ever recorded in that city. A SkyWest hangar near the airport was blown to pieces.  Extensive tree damage and widespread power outages continued on into Ohio and parts of West Virginia. All these areas are under the gun for record heat today. Many people will have to endure the heat without air conditioning. 

If last night's weather is confirmed as a derecho, it will already be the third destructive and deadly one to hit North America this year. On May 12, a derecho, accompanied by dust storms struck South Dakota and neighboring parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota, killing two people and causing widespread damage, including the South Dakota cities of Sioux Falls, Watertown and Brookings.

Another derecho in southern Ontario and Quebec hit the most populated section of Canada on May 21 causing at least ten deaths in towns near Toronto and Ottawa. 

Part of a house falls into a flooding river in Gardiner, Montana
Monday during unprecedented flooding in and near 
Yellowstone National Park. Photo by Steve Rupho via CNN

YELLOWSTONE FLOOD

On the northwest side of the heat wave, high temperatures rapidly melted mountain snows, and torrential thunderstorms swept through areas around Yellowstone.  The combination caused unprecedented flooding in rivers across northwestern Wyoming and parts of Montana.

Yellowstone National Park was completely shut down by the flooding. The torrents swept away bridges, collapsed roads, washed away or flooded cabins and homes and stranded an unknown number of tourists. 

Luckily, the rain there is tapering off and temperatures are cooling, but the damage is done.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The Green Mountain State continues to be one of the few areas in the nation with benign weather. We have gorgeous days today and tomorrow with sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures and low humidity.

Thursday looks a bit more humid, and we'll probably see some showers and thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday. But this still looks like it won't be anything extreme. Forecasts are also steady for an unusually cool weekend and early next week.