Winter In April Vermont Sunday Evening Update: Snow Mostly Done, But The Cold Will Intensify

A patch of miniature daffodils endures Sunday's snow
in St. Albans, Vermont. Unfortunately, intense cold
tomorrow night will probably kill them off 

 It was a wintry day here in Vermont as we start the third week of April. It snowed much of the day across most of the state. 

The snow came during the middle of the day after a warm spell. The ground was warm and some sunlight was trying to get through the clouds. 

Those two factors prevented a lot of accumulation. Had this been a month or two ago, we would have had several inches of snow in the valleys .

The fact that snow accumulated at all testifies to the intensity of it for awhile today. 

In the valleys, the roads stayed mostly wet, maybe with a few slush patches during heavier bursts of snow. Higher elevation roads got slick and slushy, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for an April afternoon 

Route 15 near Rowell Road in Walden had to be closed due to slide-offs. Interstate 91 in Sheffield Heights in the Northeast Kingdom also had some crashes. 

The cold, elevated surface of my truck accumulated 1.6 inches here in St. Albans. Of course, there was less snow on the ground, but it did accumulate on grassy surfaces and trees. Burlington reported just 0.2 inches of snow. .

The snow pretty much ended here shortly around 3 p.m.m but as of 5 p.m. there is surprisingly sone snow still in the ground. It's not melting all that fast. 

The last and of heavier snow was in central Vermont late this afternoon and heading east. 

A few breaks in the clouds were appearing over western Vermont, so that might melt the rest of rte snow before sunset.  New snow showers have developed in New York, so we'll probably see some of that in Vermont this evening. Some of the snow showers could be very briefly heavy early this evening, but they won't lead to any new accumulation. 

TONIGHT, TOMORROW, TOMORROW NIGHT

A reinforcing cold front late tonight and early tomorrow morning could reinvigorate the snow showers briefly, but again they won't amount to much. 

But early morning commuters will start the day amid subfreezing temperatures. Left over water might freeze, and any snow showers might briefly stick to the pavement better than it did today.  Monday continues to continue blustery and cold. 

Unfortunately, we've gotten no good news for Monday night cold temperatures in the afternoon forecast updates  The forecast lows for Tuesday morning still look to be in the 15 to 25 degree range. Lots or spring garden freeze destruction looms.

I'll have more updates on this cold weather tomorrow morning, of course!  

Bracing For The Cold Snap In Vermont/Northeast

Snow forecast through tomorrow. But the fluffy snow we'll'
get isn't our big problem. The Arctic cold this weekend will
be what to watch out for. 

 Editor's Note: I'm recovering from my Wednesday eye surgery, which went well, so I might be posting at odd times or not as frequently as usual for awhile yet. We apologize for the inconvenience.

It got below zero in most places around Vermont early today. That's become a bit of a routine. That's the 11th below zero day Burlington  has had this winter and there are several more coming. 

The last time we had more below zero days in a  winter was just a few years back in 2021-22 with 20 days zero or below. 

Back in the 1960s, 1970s or even 1980s, we'd routinely have two or three dozen subzero days each winter, so this is no great shakes compared to what your parents or grandparents went through. 

There are some things about the cold weather we've had this year that feel novel. On instance is, of course Lake Champlain, which, if it didn't completely freeze over last night, probably will between now and early next week. 

Many parts of Lake Champlain, including inside the Burlington Breakwater have been ice-free or too unsafe to walk on in recent years. This year the area between Burlington's Waterfront Park and the Breakwater have become a crowd pleaser.  

Until tonight, anyway, there hasn't been much snow at all since January 26. Sections of the lake, like some area inside the breakwater and many other areas, have become great for ice skating. 

Enjoy if you can this afternoon, as this weekend will be terrible for outdoor winter fun. 

It'll cloud up as we go through late this afternoon and evening ahead of our Blast from Siberia. 

The bulk of the snow should come through roughly between around midnight and mid-morning Saturday. A bit of an upper level low along the cold front might enhance the snowfall a little. It'll amount to two of three inches of fluff for most of us. Maybe a little less than that east of the Green Mountains. And maybe four to five inches right in the ski resort zones of the Green Mountains. 

The snow might briefly come fairly hard while the cold front is passing by early tomorrow morning. The best guess is the front will make it into the Champlain Valley by roughly 4 a.m. and will pass into New Hampshire within a couple hours, give or take, after that. 

Our daytime highs will be in the mid teens to around 20 in the wee hours of tomorrow before the Arctic front blasts through. The Arctic air means business and it will come in fast on strong north winds. The temperature will fall all day.

That fluffy snow will blow around in wind that will gust over 30 mph. So there will probably be visibility problems on the roads in open areas even after the snow stops. Travel on the highways won't be great for the first part of Saturday, so you'll want to fit that into your plans.

Various cold weather alerts are in effect, which might make things a little confusing. Here in the North Country, they issue a cold weather advisory if forecasters think the wind chill will be between 20 an 30 below. An extreme cold warning goes into effect if the wind chill is going to be 30 below or worse.

Since the cold air is arriving in New York first and will establish itself more deeply during the day, an extreme cold warning is in effect on that side of the lake from 7 a.m. tomorrow to 1 p.m. Sunday.  

The wind Saturday might be a bit stronger in southern Vermont than in the north, which would lower the wind chill somewhat. So the southernmost two counties in Vermont are also under an extreme cold warning tomorrow and tomorrow night.

The rest of Vermont is under a cold weather advisory from late tomorrow afternoon to early Sunday afternoon. 

I wouldn't worry about the distinction between cold advisories and warnings and exactly when they go into effect. Just know it will be dangerously frigid outdoors in Vermont and surrounding states and in Quebec from roughly mid to late morning tomorrow well into Sunday.

I'm almost happy I have an eye injury as it gives me yet another excuse not to go outside this weekend 

That little upper level low that's coming with our cold front will be an ingredient that will feed a "bomb cyclone" or rapidly developing nor'easter far offshore of New England. 

The squeeze play between that bomb cyclone and the Arctic air we have coming in from Siberia will keep the wind going Saturday night. That's when things get really bad. Overnight lows will be near 10 below, or maybe low teens below. But the winds will keep gusting to maybe 25 mph or so.  That's when the wind chills go into the 20s an 30s below.

It's the kind of night I worry about if somebody crashes off a road at 2 in the morning and just freezes to death there. Or an overworked wood stove sets a house on fire.  People who live there, escape out into the cold in their pajamas, if they're lucky enough to escape at all. Then imagine you're a fire chief managing the task of putting the fire out in that weather. 

All kinds of dark scenarios go through my head when it gets this cold. Winter doesn't always inspire a glass half full kind of attitude.

Anyway, we get to Sunday and it will be bright and sunny. Yay!  But the strengthening February sun will only briefly get us a little above zero in the afternoon, and we'll still have a north breeze to keep the wind chill ridiculous. 

The wind will die down a little Sunday night. But the air should stir enough to prevent us from getting to say 20 or 30 below, like it would if it went dead calm.

But expect lows in the teens below zero by early Monday morning. And wind chills perhaps in the 20s below again.  

A warming trend of sorts will start Monday. By then we should get into the low teens. That's still cold but will fantastic after the weekend we'll have.

The rest of the week will be probably just a tiny bit cooler than average for mid-February. We'll have highs in the 20s, lows in the single numbers. Pretty close to the way this week has been. We'll take it! 

After Vermont 26 Degree Monday Heatwave, Below Zero Again This Morning. If You Want Super Arctic Cold, It's Coming

The sun getting ready to set over Lake Champlain, as
seen from St. Albans Bay Monday after a bright, 
bluebird winter day. 

Another round of subzero cold Monday and this morning has very nearly frozen over, despite an afternoon "heat wave" that brought temperatures into the 20s.  

Lake Champlain might have managed one last lake effect snow of the season a couple days ago, on Sunday. 

There was enough open water, combined with just the right atmospheric set up, for a light stripe of snow extending from about Burton Island down to about Bridport. A dusting to up to inches of snow fell in this band.

Time lapse video on  appeared to show a wide area of open water filling in with ice in calm, cold weather Monday morning; 

But it was all just thin scrim of ice that broke into chunks. There was still a fair amount of open water out there.  We'll see what the predawn chill did today on the lake. 

The temperature in Burlington Monday rose to 26 degrees ending a nine day streak where the temperature never got to 20 degrees. That's the longest such stretch of such cold weather since a 12-day stretch of sub-20 degree weather January,  2005. 

Now that we're into February, the sun is starting to get higher in the sky and
stronger. With light winds, yesterday's bluebird skies and sun  felt strangely comfortable out there for a change. 

Nothing lasts forever, though.  Especially anything that feels remotely mild. So, with clear, moonlit skies last night, we were back below zero this morning. 

It still looks like we will make it up into the 20s today, tomorrow and maybe, maybe Thursday and Friday. We also might get a bit of snow tonight  Wednesday, but it shouldn't amount to much. Maybe a dusting in the valleys, o an inch or two in the northern Greens.

Obviously we can't stay balmy forever.  Highs in the 20s is way, way more than we deserve.  (CHECK)

With that, we will get right back into the deep freeze Friday and the weekend. It'll come in Friday night with maybe an inch or two of snow. You will really notice the chill starting Friday night and over the weekend. 

My early guess on the weekend cold is it might be the roughest in the series yet. Current have forecasts have highs in the single numbers and lows in the single numbers and teens below zero. 

That's similar to the depth of the past couple of cold waves. The difference this time will be the wind. This time, gusts are likely to blast at us from the north over the weekend. These won't just be  light, frigid breezes. It'll be a bonafide wind.

The wind chills will make the upcoming cold wave worse and more dangerous than the weather we've seem recently

A WARMER CHANGE?

We might get a little bit of additional relief after this next cold wave passes next week. 

I wrote a few days ago that there might be a change in the weather pattern after mid-month. I am getting more optimistic that we might at least temporarily turn milder later in February.

If NOAA's eight to 14 day outlook is to be believed, the big high pressure over Greenland that forced cold air southward recently is on the move. It looks like it will shift a bit toward northeast Canada while expanding southward a bit. 

That, and a possible slight dip in the jet stream over the western United States would make the jet stream flow more west to east across the United States. Instead of Arctic air coming right at us from northwest Canada, some milder Pacific air would at least occasionally mix into the air over us. 

That's not guaranteed just yet, but it's the best sign of a warmup I've seen yet in this Arctic siege.  By warmup, I don't mean beach weather. It's February. It'll still be chilly most days later in the month.  Just not way below zero cold. 

The new weather pattern would also probably increase the chances of storms with snow or mixed precipitation. It won't be all rainbows and sunshine and puppy dogs and fairy dust. 

 

Today's The Start Of Our Nation's Snowy, Icy Nightmare; Arctic Air Already Established

Weather channel map shows enormous area under the
gun for freezing rain in the Southeast. Pink
and purple areas to get freezing rain, with the
worst hit areas in dark purple.

It was close to 30 below with wind chills of near 50 below early this morning in northern Minnesota. That frigid air continues to race south and east, setting the stage for one of the most widespread winter storms to hit the U.S. in recent memory. 

Of course it won't be 20 below in places like Oxford, Mississippi or Waxahachie, Texas, or Hazard, Kentucky, Lumberton, North Carolina, Frederick, Maryland, or probably even Harmonyville, Vermont.

But all those places will easily be cold enough to endure lots of snow, lots of ice, and lots of brutally cold weather for the next few days. 

Media reports say at least 170 million Americans are under some kind of winter weather alert. That includes all 643,000 or so people who live here in Vermont. 

The first snowflakes and first icy raindrops have just started falling in the South and the effect are already being felt. Governors in a dozen states have declared emergencies. Natural gas prices have surged by 60 percent as people crank the heat off to ward off the icy or blizzardy chill. 

The most dangerous part of this storm is the expected freezing rain from Texas to the Southeast U.S. coast. 

This will cover a much larger area than most ice storms. Most of the areas at risk for the heaviest ice are heavily forested. That means lots of power outages as some of these trees collapse under the weight o the ice. 

Typically, if one area is hit by an ice storm, utility companies rush in from other states to help rebuild the power grid. That's going to be a more difficult this time because such a huge region is under the gun with freezing rain. 

Utility crews from further north in the expected snow zone are probably going to help. I hope some of them are staging in the southern freezing rain area now so they won't have to fight their way through heavy snow to get there. 

The heavy snow zone is itself enormous. Everybody in a broad band from northern Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas northeastward through New England will get at least six inches of snow. A number of places are in for more than a foot. 

It's also going to be dangerous after the storm. I mentioned Oxford, Mississippi. They're expecting an inch of ice, more than enough to bring down lots of trees and power lines. Unlike many southern winter storms, it's going to stay cold well after the storm in Oxford and most other places in the South. Overnight lows in Oxford are forecast to be in the single digits early next week.

There's almost too much to watch across the nation as this storm unfolds. But it's going to be an interesting few days. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The snow squalls, the intense cold and our share of the big U.S. winter storm are all on tap for Vermont.

Snow Squalls

Another look at the brief but intense snow squall in
Burlington, Vermont yesterday. Photo is when the 
intensity was just starting to decline. 

Those impressive snow squalls yesterday here and there in Vermont brought zero visibility and winds to 45 mph in some spots yesterday. 

More snow squalls are in the works today as that Arctic cold front approaches. Already, as of 8:30 a.m. one narrow band of fairly heavy snow was entering the northwestern corner of Vermont. Another such band was in Rutland County.

We'll see more of this through the day. Some of the squalls might even hit after the front passes and while temperatures are dropping. So in that respect, these could be more dangerous than those that hit Thursday. 

It was warm enough Thursday for the snow to quickly melt off the roads once the squalls departed. Today will be colder, so the road conditions won't improve as fast. And of course if you're caught in one of those squalls on the road, good luck seeing anything in front of you. 

Nobody will get much snow out of this. Most places will see an inch or less. It's just that in some places, all that snow will come down in something like 10 minutes. 

Intense Cold

After peaking late this morning or early afternoon close to 20 degrees, temperatures will crash as stiff northwest winds pick up. The worst of it will be tonight and the first half of Saturday with the lowest temperatures and the strongest winds. Those are the hours when our extreme cold warning is in effect. 

It still looks like actual temperatures will go below zero this evening and bottom out early tomorrow morning in the upper single numbers to upper teens below zero. Wind chills will be in the 20 to 40 below range. 

It still looks like highs tomorrow will only make it to about zero. A little below that in the north, and little above that in southern valleys. 

Usually in a cold wave like this the second night is even colder. We originally thought that would be the case Saturday night. But that massive storm will start clouding us up by then.  Northern areas will probably be a little colder than Friday morning, but with less wind.

Southern Vermont, where the clouds will arrive first, might be a little warmer Sunday morning than Saturday morning. Don't break out the Hawaiian shirts, though. It will still be below zero

The Storm

As we suspected last evening would happen, the winter storm watch that was in effect for southern Vermont has bee extended through the state all the way to the Canadian border.  The computer model keep pushing the storm a little north, and also frigid, dry high pressure north.

The high pressure is important. If it was centered close to us, moisture coming up this way would get eaten up by the dry air, and we'd get little snow. If the high is further north in Quebec, the moisture would have an easier time invading, so we'd get more snow. 

The computer models are disagreeing on exactly how much snow we'll get Sunday into Monday. Early guesses have five or six inches near the Canadian border to over a foot near the Massachusetts border.

Don't take that as gospel. There will be adjustments.

We can tell you that we know southern Vermont will get more snow than the north. We don't have to worry about sleet and freezing rain. And this will be an unusually cold snow storm. 

Temperatures during the event will be in the single numbers and low teens. It will probably be a pretty fluffy snow. None of that wet, heavy crap we've often gotten in recent winters. 

Cleanup after the storm in Vermont isn't going to go great either. Temperatures will be low enough after the storm so that salt won't work great on the roads.

Actually cleanup won't be easy anywhere because there's a nationwide shortage of road salt. Until now, it hasn't been a particularly cold winter in the U.S., but there's been a lot of icy storms. Salt is in short supply. 

Or even nonexistent in some communities.

The City of Vergennes posted on Facebook yesterday that it is entirely out of salt.  Rutland is almost out of salt, too. So is Monkton and West Rutland. And probably some other Vermont towns. 

The salt shortage is hitting the entire state. The Vermont Department of Motor Vehicles has temporarily waived driving hour limits for salt delivery drivers until the end of the month because of the high demand. 

It'll stay cold all of next week, though not as cold as tomorrow. Still, highs in the low to  mid teens and lows near zero don't sound like fun.

The weather pattern over the next two weeks tends to favor more nor'easters. It's hard to tell whether any of them will come close enough to Vermont to give us more snow, so we'll just have to wait and see. 

 

Nation Faces Days Of Extreme Cold, And Huge Winter Storm Of Ice And Snow (Vermont Forecast Included)

Huge area in red on this map is expected to be affected
by a massive winter storm this weekend. 

The next several days will be peak winter across most of the United States.

And downright dangerous. 

Most of the northern tier of the United States from North Dakota to New England is in for intense cold. In northern Minnesota, wind chills could drop into the mid 50s below zero.  

Even worse, a massive winter storm is taking shape. It'll extend from eastern New Mexico, , through the southern and central Great Plains, then across  much of the South and the eastern United States.

The placement of who gets the worst of it is still a little in question, but the area affected will be massive. 

A large area across the South is expecting a crippling ice storm. Those most affected will endure possibly days-long power outages and severe tree damage. To the north of the ice, snow accumulation in some areas might be measured in feet, not inches. 

People across the South away from the immediate Gulf Coast are being told to stock up on food and supplies, just in case. 

The storm won't really start until Friday, but the warnings are already sounding pretty dire. Ryan Maue, a former chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told the Associated Press that the storm could be a "widespread potentially catastrophic event from Texas to the Carolinas....I don't know how people are going to deal with it."

The odd thing is this won't be a huge, strong low pressure system causing the problem. Instead, a massive blob of heavy, frigid Arctic air will press down into the southern United States. Then, a wet flow of warm, lighter, humid air will glide over this bitter cold air. The rising air will unleash a barrage of snow and freezing rain onto the millions of southerners shivering on the ground below. 

The storm will likely consolidate and finally grow stronger near the East Coast toward Sunday night. 

New Mexico and Texas will be hit first on Friday, then everything will spread eastward and eventually somewhat northward through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. 

This could easily become the first weather disaster of the year costing $1 billion or more. We'll have much more on this over the next several days as the storm develops.  

VERMONT IMPACTS

A classic cold winter afternoon sky yesterday over
St. Albans, Vermont. By this weekend, we'll
REALLY be shivering in subzero cold. 

Frankly, we're in for some miserable midwinter weather in Vermont, but overall, we're lucky.

We won't be nearly as cold as places like Minnesota. That massive storm should either give us a slight glancing blow, or not affect us at all.  

But we have a bit of snow in the forecast, some wind, and eventually that bitter cold air. Even when the chill eases off a bit toward the beginning of next week, we'll be mostly on the colder than normal side  right into February. Possibly through most of February. 

A series of weak weather fronts will harass us today through Friday. A lame warm front today will spread light snow through most of Vermont this afternoon and evening. Almost everyone will see an inch or less of accumulation. The mountains, as always, could pick up a bit more than that.

But even that little bit will probably make the roads a little iffy for the drive home from work this evening. 

The warm front will bring temperatures to the low 20s this afternoon, then those readings will hold steady tonight. In the Champlain Valley. Temperatures will actually slowly warm up overnight as south winds gust to 40 mph or even a bit more. 

Enjoy tomorrow, as it will be the last warm-ish day for quite awhile. Highs should briefly reach the low or even mid 30s in a few spots. A cold front coming at us will probably set off more afternoon and evening snow showers. A few spots away from the Champlain Valley might even see a brief snow squall. 

Once again, though, most places will see an inch or less, with - as always - a little more in the mountains. Like today, tomorrow's snow showers could once again make your drive home from work or school tomorrow afternoon a little annoying.

Thursday's cold front won't introduce us to the super cold air. It'll only get a little chillier. Another cold front on Friday will be the one to make us absolutely miserable. 

The first half of Friday should be OK, with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 20. But the wind will pick up and the temperature will fall all afternoon. Wind chill alerts will probably be issued starting later Friday and going through much of the weekend. 

We'll start the day with subzero temperatures Saturday morning, and those of us who get above zero Saturday afternoon will be the lucky ones.

Saturday night will be super cold. Early guesses are teens below zero. That's not even close to record cold territory, but it's much worse than what we've gotten used to. Clouds from that massive storm in the south might - again if we're lucky - keep us from getting even colder.

That huge storm is forecast to pass far to our south Sunday night. An early guess has it heading off the coast around Delaware.  Some of the forecast models are suggesting a little snow could make it all the way north into Vermont Sunday night despite our great distance from the storm. 

That moisture will be battling the very dry, cold air over us, so I'm still dubious as to whether we'll get any snow. I'll keep an open mind, though. 

It'll probably stay cold through next week and probably beyond, but it won't be quite as bad as what we'll deal with this coming weekend. 

Will Lake Champlain Freeze Over This Winter

There was still a lot of open water on Lake Champlain
 as of Sunday as this photo shows. But an expected
long, intense cold spell could eventually make
the lake freeze over for the first time since 2019.

 We've got a LOT of cold air headed toward the eastern United States, including here in Vermont. 

That frigid air looks like it might last quite awhile, too. Does this mean Lake Champlain will freeze over? Possibly, if the chill lasts long enough. 

If Lake Champlain does completely freeze over, it'll be the first time it's happened since 2019. In 2022, it came this close to freezing entirely, but there was always at least aa small hole of open water in the lake that winter. 

As of Sunday the huge expanse of the broad lake was ice-free. Bays, estuaries and coves were frozen, as they almost always are this time of year. But even inside Burlington's breakwater, there was no ice. After a warmish early January, we'll need a brutally long cold wave to ice over this lake. 

Such a cold wave seems to be a distinct possibility. 

It's not at all odd to have open water in Lake Champlain during mid-January.   Typically, if the lake turns into wall to wall ice, it doesn't happen until the very end of January or in February. There's been a few years in which the lake didn't freeze until March.

There's Lake Champlain freeze over data dating all the way back to 1816. But back in the 1800s and early 1900s, there were no planes flying over the lake to confirm it was entirely frozen. I imagine some historic "freeze overs" were actually only close, but no cigar.

After 1930, I could only find two years - 1977 and 1981 - in which the freeze over hit before today's date. 

If the lake doesn't freeze over this year, it would tie the record for most consecutive years of winter open water on the lake. The only other time six years went by without a complete freeze over was 2008-13.

Climate change is making it harder to freeze Lake Champlain. Since 2000, the lake has only frozen over eight times. It used to be more frequent than that before the world started substantially warming up

COLD FORECAST

The eastern third of the United States will be taking a break from that climate change warmth over the coming days and weeks. 

This will be a widespread, intense cold wave stretching from the northern Plains to New England and down into the northern Gulf Coast states. 

Locally here in Vermont, it still looks like most of this week won't be that bad. It'll certainly be cooler than the weekend was, but still pretty reasonable for a Vermont January. 

We'll get an initial taste of the cold tonight through tomorrow night. Highs Tuesday will only be in the teens, and it'll get close to zero in some towns Tuesday night .

Lake effect snows will go gangbusters this week
with an area south of Watertown, New York
expecting three to four feet of snow by Wednesday.

We'll briefly warm into the 20s for highs Wednesday and Thursday before the bottom drops out of everyone's thermometers.

In Vermont, and throughout the Northeast, it'll be an old fashioned cold wave. 

By that I mean it will be reminiscent of the long Arctic spells we used to see in the 1970s.  In recent decades, intense cold snaps were hit and run affairs. They'd blast in with their intense chill, then with a day or two, it was over.

This one looks to arrive this coming Friday and last perhaps for nearly a week. That means a long stretch of "high" temperatures near 0 or, if we're lucky the single numbers above zero. Each night will go below zero with some of those nights far below zero. Like teens and 20s below

At least that's the way it looks as of this morning. There are always changes to the forecast as we get closer to an event, and this is no exception. 

Frigid weather regimes like the one we're entering are usually quite dry, and that will be the case here. Remember, warm air can hold a lot of moisture. Bitter cold air holds very little. So, at most, we expect a few snow flurries from time to time in the valleys, and slightly heavier snow showers in the mountains. 

The next chance for any accumulating snow is when the cold front introducing the super cold air approaches us toward the end of the week. There's a chance of a few heavier snow showers or snow squalls around Thursday, but we're not too sure about that yet. Even that would only give us an inch or two of snow. 

The exception to the very little snow rule will be downwind from the Great Lakes. 

In New York, Lake Ontario will help produce the biggest monster snows. The infamous Tug Hill region south of Watertown could have four feet of new snow by Wednesday morning. 

Lake Erie freezes over more quickly than Lake Ontario, because it's much shallower. Since ice is forming on Lake Erie, the snow belts south of Buffalo, New York won't be quite as bad as the Tug Hill region. Still, up to two feet of snow could come down in areas near Lake Erie.

I don't have any information yet on how the lake effect snows will work when the real cold air arrives next weekend. 

I don't see any signs of any balmy weather coming to the Northeast anytime soon. The best I can give you is that the chill might ease off somewhat by the time we get into February. 

 

Southern Vermont Finally Sees Snow; Much Colder Weather Due

Traffic cam grab of Route7 in Shaftesbury, Vermont
showing yesterday's snow and more snow falling
A new winter weather advisory has been issued for
Vermont's southernmost two counties. 

 Southern Vermont, which has so often missed out on snowfall this winter, finally got a  little bit Saturday, and a little more is on the way.  

Both Bennington and Brattleboro received 5.5 inches of snow on Saturday. There might have been slightly higher totals in the southern Green Mountains, considering the town of Savoy, in the Massachusetts Berkshires, received 10.5 inches.

Most places in central and northern Vermont received two inches or so of fluff on Saturday.

Now, it turns out southern Vermont is getting even more snow.

That offshore nor'easter we mentioned yesterday is indeed staying offshore. But its band of moisture is extending further northwest than expected. That means Bennington and Windham counties are once again under a winter weather advisory. 

Those areas should get another two to five inches of snow. The southern Vermont snow is coming in two waves. One is going through this morning well ahead of the storm.

Meanwhile the actual nor'easter is now forming in the southeastern U.S.  We can confirm those snowy predictions in Florida. Some snow was falling in northwest Florida early today. A winter storm warning is in effect for a couple counties in northwest Florida for one to two inches of snow. Those winter warnings extend through southwest and central Georgia.

It's astounding that northwest Florida has managed to get two snowy Januaries in a row.

Anyway, our nor'easter will really rocket past New England tonight, sending another wave of light snow through central New England, including southern Vermont. It should be over with by tomorrow morning. 

WARM TO COLD

Forecast weather map for next Sunday. If it pan
out, this is a textbook map for a huge Arctic outbreak
Strong, huge frigid high pressure from Canada 
seen plunging into U.S. with huge area of 
bitter north winds in the eastern half of 
the United States,

Today will be the "warmest" day we see in a long time. Highs should make it to around 30 for most valleys today.  

An increasingly cold and dry pattern is set to start tomorrow, with waves of frigid air coming our way. 

Tomorrow will make it into the 20s, which isn't too bad, but gusty winds will make it feel worse.The first of these cold fronts will make Tuesday cold, but not incredibly so. Expect highs that day in the teens with lows near zero.

After a brief warmup into the mid and upper 20s by Thursday, a more intense and longer lasting cold wave will blast in. That'l affect not only Vermont, but pretty much all of the central and eastern United States.

Here in Vermont, we probably face several days with below zero temperatures, starting next weekend and continuing into the beginning of the following week.

We'll have more details on that as we get closer to that icy nightmare. 

Yes, It Was Remarkably Cold In And Around Vermont This Morning. Also, Winter Will Rage On

Steam rising from Lake Champlain in the distance
on the coldest early December morning in 36 years.
Image is from hazecam.net

Midwinter cold settled over Vermont and surrounding areas this morning, giving us the most intense early December cold in years. 

A final accounting of this morning's low temperatures weren't in yet when I was writing this early today. But we know it got to at least minus 4 in Burlington, 8 below in Montpelier and St. Johnsbury and 10 below in Morrisville.

The cold extended easily into southern Vermont. Early this morning, Rutland, Springfield and Bennington were all at 4 below. 

Over in the traditional icebox of Saranac Lake, New York it got to 22 below. 

In this climate changed world it's harder than it once was to get this cold this early in the season. But it cam still happen. Obviously,.because we all experienced the joys of subzero cold this morning. 

The only recent example of this kind of cold this earlier in the season or earlier came in 2018, when Burlington got to 1 below on November 23, the earliest in the season subzero cold on record. Other than in 2018, it hasn't been this cold this early in Burlington since the notorious cold 1989. That's 36 years ago if you want me to do the math.   

Montpelier, with their 8 below this morning, set a record low for today's date. The old record was minus 7 in the frigid December of 1971. But the records at the Montpelier airport only go back to 1940. 

In places with longer term records, like Burlington, we missed the record low by a wide margin today.   The record low for today in Burlington was 12 below, set way back in 1886.  

COLD TO CONTINUE 

The worst is over for now, as weak, low-angle sunshine and a stirring of a south wind this afternoon will get us up to near 20 degrees.  That's still far below normal for this time of year, but at least it's not below zero.  Tonight will be "balmier" than last night, too.  Most of us will be in the single numbers above zero, which I suppose is an improvement over this morning.  

Ahead of the next system, we've got a damn heat wave for you on Saturday. By that I mean it could get into the low 30s. 

Enjoy while it lasts, because another Arctic blast is on the way after that. How fun! 

One weak cold front will come through Saturday night with a handful of snowflakes. That front will keep Sunday's high temperatures in the chilly mid-20s 

Then a stronger cold front arrives Sunday night with a packet of light snow. We'll have to watch and see if we get another round of snow squalls out of this. But this front doesn't look quite as able to generate snow squalls as yesterday's was.

 And if we do get the squalls, they'd come through before the Monday morning commute, not during it, so they wouldn't be as disruptive as yesterday's annoying mess on the roads. 

Highs will hold in just the teens again Monday, and most of us will probably go below zero again Monday night. I'm a bundle of joyous news this morning, aren't I?

Beyond that, things get a little more uncertain. Two small to medium sized storms look like they might come through here maybe around Wednesday and Friday.  The storms' paths are still in question. If they go by to our west, we might be in for some mixed precipitation. If they go to our south, but not too far to our south, we'll have more snow. 

It's still looking like most chances lean toward colder than normal temperatures most days at least to about Christmas. This is turning out to be the first old fashioned, wintry type December we've had in quite awhile. 

Quick Wednesday Morning Update: Snow Totals From Tuesday, Squalls Thursday, Then Bitter Cold

Traffic cam shot of snowy Route 7 in Shaftsbury 
Vermont Tuesday. That part of Vermont generally
got the most snow out of yesterday's storm. 

 I've got some very early appointments today, so just a brief update to start the day on yesterday's snow, and what's coming next. 

The snowfall yesterday pretty much matched the forecast with the most falling in southern Vermont. The Northeast Kingdom did well, too.

The highest totals I've seen so far are 10.6 inches in Manchester Center; 8.7 inches in Arlington; 8.5 inches in Landgrave, and 8 inches in Pawlet.

Northeast Kingdom totals included 8.6 inches in Lyndonville and several reports in the 6.5 to 7.3 inch range. 

In the Champlain Valley, it was mostly three to six inches, about as expected. Central Vermont generally had five or six inches. Again, that's pretty close to what the National Weather Service had forecast 

It stopped snowing hours ago, but it's cold out there this morning - mostly in the teens. I'm sure there are some slick spots on the roads. I can hear the scraping outside of state plow trucks trying to finish cleaning up. 

Today will be the calm before the next storm. It will be winter cold today, with everyone except maybe a few people in southern Vermont valleys staying below freezing

ARCTIC FRONT

We're still looking at that terrible cold front coming at us tomorrow morning with its band of snow squalls. The National Weather Service in South Burlington remains worried about tomorrow morning's commute in the Champlain Valley. 

It was bad enough with the gentle snow we had yesterday. There's a good chance this front will barrel in with a band of snow squalls.  These would cause abrupt, almost whiteout conditions, a quick one to two inches of snow and gusts to 30 mph. 

Yeah, I'm staying put at home tomorrow morning. I'll just huddle under blankets with Henry the Weather Dog. 

We're still looking at the timing of these, but so far, it looks like these might come through the Champlain Valley at between 7 and 9 a.m. or so.  The rest of Vermont might get these squalls, too, but at least they would come through between mid-morning and early afternoon, when the roads are a bit less busy. 

Winter is here with a vengeance, and it's not easing up anytime soon. I would say at least half of Vermont will be below zero by early Friday morning, and the rest of us will be damn close to it. 

I don't see any big storms on the horizon at this point. But I do see repeated cold fronts with reinforcing shots of nasty cold air at least through most of next week, if to beyond that. 

Not Just Vermont: Arctic Blast Spreads Snow, Deep Chill Across Eastern Half of Nation

A heavy blanket of snow this morning in St. Albans,
Vermont. It was part of a huge cold and snowy
spell over the eastern U.S. Northern areas had zones
of heavy snow, while the Southeastern U.S.
reported record lows. 

I'm looking out the window today at nearly nine inches of snow outside, which is really something for November 11 in Vermont's Champlain Valley. 

And it's still snowing a little. 

I guess I can take comfort in the fact I have company. A remarkable blast of Arctic air - with snow in many places - has overtaken most of the eastern United States. 

Lake effect snows were the big story in the Midwest Monday. Chicago managed to avoid the worst of the lake effect snow bands that threatened the Windy City with up to a foot of snow. 

The worst of the lake effect snows hit north, south and east of Chicago. The city itself managed only about two or three inches of snow, while 3.5 inches of snow. Some places, like Momence and Cedar Lake, Illinois, got a foot of snow. 

Where it did snow it seemed to come all at once.  Video by Live Storms Media showed whiteout conditions in and around Gary, Indiana. 

Thing were so wild on Lake Michigan that there were waterspouts, or maybe more accurately, snowspouts spinning away out there in the turbulent, cold air over the water. 

The lake effect snows spread eastward during the day Monday. 

Meanwhile, a lake effect snow warning was issued for areas south of Buffalo through tomorrow morning. Some areas could get nearly a foot of snow. Parts of northwest Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio were also getting lake effect snows. 

Snow fell pretty far south, too. Stone Mountain, Georgia and Nashville, Tennessee were among the many southern locations that saw snow flurries. 

SOUTHERN FREEZE

Freeze warnings this week encompassed a huge swath from eastern Texas to southeast Virginia.  

The freeze warnings extended as far south as Brooksville, Florida, which is about 50 miles north of Tampa. 

It was a record 28 degrees in Jacksonville, Florida this morning, the earliest in the season its' been this cold since at least 1976. Charleston, South Carolina was also the coldest since 1976 with a low of 29 degrees. Savannah, Georgia reached 28 degrees. 

Other record lows in Florida this morning included 31 in Pensacola, 36 in Orlando, 35 in St. Augustine, 38 in Melbourne, 45 in Naples, 42 in Fort Myers and 40 in Sarasota.  

Overall, more than 80 record lows were tied or broken this morning, mostly in the southeastern United States. 

Freeze warnings are up again tonight in Florida and southern Georgia.

Ironically, the cold spell may in some weird way be related to climate change. In large swaths of the Arctic, temperatures in recent days have been as much as 30 degrees above normal. It's being cause by something called a Greenland Block. 

The Greenland Block is a large are of high pressure that sometimes sets up over the Arctic. It's a warm air mass, by their standards, anyway. The Block forces the cold air that's usually way up in Canada southward, into the United States. 

The block itself isn't related to climate change, but they're probably boosted by a warmer Earth. We also don't know if climate change makes the Greenland Block happen more frequently than it once did, or is this just some natural thing that happens from time to time with or without climate change. 

In any event, the Greenland Block is re-orienting itself by pressing a little more westward into Canada; This will help shut off a lot of the cold air coming from central Canada, though New England will stay on the cool side for quite awhile yet. 

But for the rest of the East and Southeast, this was just a foretaste of winter. Not the actual start of the season. 

 

 

New England In For Biggest Bout Of Cold And Snow This Winter, With A Snowstorm Thrown IN

Despite some concern that forecasts could shift a lot
the expected snowfall map, released by the 
National Weather Service Sunday morning, is little
changed from forecasts we saw yesterday. 

 Central New England is set to have arguably its biggest snowstorm of the winter while the entire region plunges into our long awaited Arctic blast. 

Up here in Vermont, high temperatures for today were just after midnight, as it was still in the 30s.  Those temperatures were crashing downward as of dawn. They might level off a bit at midday, then crash more tonight.

As those temperatures are crashing, our fast moving nor'easter still is laying down or plans to lay down a stripe of fairly heavy snow from the mountains of western North Carolina and east Tennessee northeastward up through West Virginia, western Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey, parts of New York and most of the southeastern half of New England. 

Due to the fast forward pace of this nor'easter, I don't think anybody will have incredible amounts of snow. Few places will see up to a foot. Most of the worst hit areas will have a half foot or a little more, But while the storm is passing through, it will snow really hard, at a rate of one to two inches per hour.

That's more than enough to really screw up travel. 

The heaviest snow will pass through this afternoon in the Middle Atlantic States and this evening in New England. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

All through yesterday and last night, I saw lots of potential for the expected heaviest snowfall to shift either further north into more of Vermont, or shift away from the state.

So far, though, the forecasts have remained pretty consistent.  The band of heaviest snow should brush southernmost parts of the state, which is why Bennington and Windham counties are still under a winter storm warning. 

Those areas are still expecting four to eight inches of new snow, with it coming down at a healthy rate of an inch per hour this evening. 

Just north of the winter storm warning, and roughly just south and east of a line from Middlebury, through Montpelier to St. Johnsbury, a winter weather advisory is up. Those areas look like they can expect a quick shot of three to seven inches of snow, 

Amounts should taper off pretty fast as you head further northwest. For the Champlain Valley, it looks like one to three inches. Maybe even less as you get way up to the northwest corner of the state up by Alburgh.

MORE STORM DETAILS:

It'll be interesting to see how well the snow will punch northwestward across the state. It'll be battling that frigid Arctic air that is flooding in.   That air is super dry, and could evaporate the snow in the northwest as it tries to fall.  That could lead to a forecast bust, with perhaps little or no snow falling up there. We shall see.

In fact, there is still some hemming and hawing as of Sunday morning as to how this storm will play out. The consensus is what I've written about above, but there's still the risk of a surprise bigger dump, or a big whiff.  Like all New England nor'easters, almost nothing is guaranteed.

While it is snowing this evening and overnight, temperatures will be falling through the teens into the single digits. That's really cold for a snowfall, and guarantees the snow will be very fluffy and light.

Given that nor'easters have a good breeze with them, we should have lots of problems with blowing and drifting snow during and after the storm. 

Even though the snow will be pretty much over with by the time you get up Monday morning, roads will still be snow covered and slippery, with drifts. Remember, road salt won't be working very well, so don't rely on the state highway department salt shaker trucks to solve every problem.

THE COLD

Although this will be far from the worst cold wave Vermont and New England can possibly experience, it's still worth taking it seriously. Temperatures should stay in the teens by day and near zero by night coming up early this week even in southern New England.

Up here in Vermont, daytime highs Monday through Wednesday still look like they'll be in the single numbers to maybe low teens. Overnight lows will be below zero.

Stiff winds Monday and Tuesday should keep wind chills in the teens below zero. Those planning a ski holiday in the mountains will really want to take care. Wind chills high up on the ski slopes Monday and Tuesday should end up in the 30s below zero.

The Arctic cold will last into Thursday morning before temperatures start to warm up to more seasonable, comfortable levels. 

The New England nor'easter and cold snap is part of a wild week the United States is having over the next few days.  Winter storm watches are up along the Gulf Coast of all places for expected snow and ice.

Bitter cold is gripping most of the nation from the Rockies east. And another round of dangerous, strong, dry fire-spreading winds are on tap for southern California. I'll cover all this in more detailed, separate posts today. 

Vermont Winds Howl This Morning While Big Questions Remain About Sunday Night Snow

This morning's snowfall prediction map for the quick
storm Sunday night. More so than usual, this map
is subject to change. We could end up seeing a lot
more, or a lot less snow than indicated here

 As forecast the winds are howling in the Champlain Valley early this morning and that will be the state of affairs for most of the rest of the day. 

Actually, it'll be gusty statewide in Vermont, but the Champlain Valley and mountain summits are where the real wind action is. 

Already, as of 7 a.m. a few spots in the Champlain Valley have gusted to between 45 and 50 mph. 

 Expect a few power outages and a some scattered issues with trees and branches down. And some rough rides if you're taking a ferry across Lake Champlain.

Ice will probably be shifting around on the lake, too. Stay off the ice today, it could break off and float away. This is true even if you think you're on "safe" ice near the shore.

Enjoy the vaguely thawing temperatures today, with highs in the 35 to 42 degree range. It will start to get cold late tonight, introducing us to our long anticipated Arctic blast.   Daily low temperatures during much of the upcoming week will be below zero for most of us. The bulk of the cold air will be with us from Monday through Thursday morning. 

Just as the cold first arrives, we still have a  real wild card for Sunday night.   

SNOW QUESTIONS

As of this Saturday morning, the computer models still haven't resolved how far north and west into New England the heavier snow will get from a quick hitting nor'easter that should blow through New England Sunday night. 

Depending on the track of the storm, much of Vermont could get a dump or a big bust. 

Usually, about 36 hours before a storm, meteorologists are able to work out fairly well how much snow ill come. Not this time. It looks like just a tiny deviation in the path of the storm will make a big difference.

The forecast for Rutland is a great example. As of this morning, the prediction for Rutland is four inches of new snow. But there's a 10 percent chance of just a trace, and a 10 percent chance of a 10 inch dump. 

The prediction in Burlington is for an inch of snow out of this, as northwest Vermont is likely to be outside the heaviest stripe of snow. But there's a 10 percent chance of nothing, and a 10 percent chance of seven inches. 

Though we still don't have a great handle on expected accumulations, we do know there will tend to be more in southeast Vermont and less up in the northwest. 

For now, the likely scenario is temperatures will be in the 30s just after midnight very early Sunday morning but will fall quickly through the 20s and into the teens during the day.

By the time the snow arrives - if it arrives -temperatures will be in the 8 to 12 degree range. So it would be a cold, light fluffy snowfall.   If places do receive several inches of snow, there won't be much water content in that powder. 

There's still a winter storm watch in effect for this thing in Bennington and Windham counties. Depending on updated forecasts, we might see some advisories get posted further north in the Green Mountain State. 

The winter storm watch is also in effect for central and southern New Hampshire, parts of Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut and the Hudson Valley of New York, among a few other places in the Northeast. 

The snow should be mostly out of here by around dawn Monday, give or take. But given the low temperatures, it will be difficult to get all the snow off the roads, since salt doesn't work all that great when it's under 20 degrees.

Some of that snow would compact into ice under car tires, so the Monday morning drive to work won't be all that much fun. 

You'll also want to have extra blankets and snacks in the car, too, and a full tank of gas if it's not an EV. With the cold air and low wind chills, you want to be prepared in case you get stuck.  

The cold wave will start to ease Thursday. Early indications are after that we'll have typically variable winter weather, with some cold days and some afternoons that aren't that bad. 

Brace Yourself, Vermont: You're REALLY About To Get Slapped By Winter. Also, Not Just Vermont

 Like I noted in a post Sunday morning, it's been an incredibly warm year in Vermont.

A weather map depicting what forecasters think will
be happening Thursday morning. A strong Alberta
clipper is seen here spreading wind and snow
across the Northeast, while a blast of Arctic air
begins to rush southward into the eastern
half of the United States. 

That party is over. 

The chilly winds and snow showers, and itty bits of lake effect stuff the Green Mountain State experienced over the weekend was just a tiny morsel of what's to come.

If you love wind chills below zero, icebox temperatures, lots of wind and bursts of snow blasting into your face, this will be your week. And this could last awhile. 

Today and tomorrow, we'll muddle through with sort of chilly weather for this time of year, but nothing that out of the ordinary.  The sky will probably yield a few more snowflakes from time to time, but nothing major. 

We already had some snow in much of Vermont overnight. My place in St. Albans had 1.1 inches of surprise snow overnight.

Roads early this morning were slick in spots, and as of 7 a.m it was definitely still snowing noticeably in the northern Green Mountains and western slopes. Accumulations won't amount to all that much today, but the dustings in the mountains will continue to slowly add up. 

Tomorrow, it's rinse and repeat. Some of us might get another  dusting, a lucky few maybe an inch or two. And the northern mountains could collect up to four or five inches of fluff.

WINTER SLAMS

The cold drama starts Wednesday. A strong Alberta clipper will come at us from the west and northwest and pass through the region Thursday. 

Alberta clippers, to refresh your memory, are storms that form in or near Alberta, Canada and head southeastward toward us. They can be windy storms, but they they don't usually have all that much moisture to work with.  

They usually bring cold winds and more often than not, less than four inches of snow. 

This particular Alberta clipper will help spread frigid air through almost all of the eastern half of the nation, creating southern freezes, subzero cold in the upper Midwest, more epic lake effect snowstorms in the Great Lakes, and general winter awfulness and cold winds everywhere in the East.

An early guesstimate from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington regarding how much snow
will fall Wednesday and Thursday. It's definitely
subject to change, and I suspect this map might
underestimate how much snow might all in 
the northern and central Green Mountains. 

 As is usual with an Alberta clipper, we won't get a huge dump of snow with this one here in Vermont, but it will get somewhat snowy. .

Ahead of it, strong south winds will get cranking Wednesday, especially in the Champlain Valley. Despite the south winds, it really won't warm up much, so the precipitation that does come in will be snow. 

The storm's boisterous cold fronts will bluster through on Thursday, with more snow showers. Some of them might be squally, with briefly heavy snow and particularly gusty and erratic winds. 

So really, this whole Alberta clipper thing will make travel on the highways a bit much at times through Wednesday through Friday. 

Lower valleys like the Champlain and lower Connecticut probably won't see much new snow, maybe an inch or two. But the mountains (Read: ski areas) should benefit from several inches of snow. 

Starting Thursday and continuing through the weekend, it's going to be COLD.  The howling winter winds will continue. High temperatures Friday and during next weekend will only be in the 20s, with some areas maybe not making it out of the teens Friday. 

Lows will be in the single digits, and wind chills will certainly be below zero. If you  haven't dragged your really cold winter gear out of the closets yet, now's the time to do it. 

Sure, it usually gets cold in December, but this looks like it will definitely a stronger and more intense early December cold wave than we've gotten used to in recent years.  Though in this age of climate change, this won't be as nasty as some historic cold waves decades ago. It won't be a record-breaker.

It's beginning to look like a reinforcing shot of frigid air will come in around Sunday, so the earliest we might see any kind of warm up is more than a week away. 

Gators Survive Just Fine In Frozen Over Ponds During Cold Wave

An alligator frozen into an icy pond. Despite appearances,
the alligator was just fine once the ice thawed. 

 One of the many pleasures of living in Vermont is, when you decide to take a nice dip in a pond or lake, or in the winter, go skating on it,  an alligator won't bother you. 

Here's something that gave me just a little bit of pause, however.

It involves alligators in a pond that froze over in Texas during a relatively intense cold wave earlier this month,  There were alligators in that pond. And it turns out, they did just fine. 

Which is worrying, because it makes me wonder whether  alligators can survive our climate changed warmer winters in Vermont just fine. 

Not really, but still. 

The local NBC affiliate in Dallas-Fort Worth gives us the scoop: 

"An alligator was seen in a recent TikTok video poking its nose through the ice in a frozen pond at Gator Country, a wildlife rescue center in Beaumont, Texas.

Yes, the gator is still very much alive. It can't regulate its temperature so it survives the icy conditions by going into a state of brumation. Think of it as the hibernation equivalent for cold-blooded reptiles."

The gatos push their noses above the ice so they can still breathe even when the pond is frozen over. As long as their snouts are above water they do just fine. 

Well, I suppose the good news during icy cold waves is the alligator is so lethargic its less likely to regard you as lunch. 

News of other frozen alligators (gatorcicles?") surfaced in North Carolina. Those gators did fine, also, when temperatures warmed in the 70s late last week. 

Video: News video of the frozen alligators. The bonus is how fun the dude is who explains the whole thing to us. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Friday Morning Arctic Blast Update: UGH!

Since it's so bitterly cold out, I'll try to warm you up a little
with a photo of a beautiful warm, sunny Vermont summer
 day a couple years ago. 

 Well, it's here. The long awaited Arctic blast, polar vortex, whatever you want to call it. 

Temperatures were crashing early this morning as expected. For instance, Burlington dropped from 24 degrees at midnight to 2 above by 6 a.m. 

Temperatures will continue down and reach below zero soon, if they haven't already, and will stay below zero all day. Wind chills are ramping up, and the expected 30 to 45 below wind chill values will hit as the day wears on. 

MORNING DRIVE TIME

There's some slick areas on the roads this morning from those brief but heavy snow squalls overnight. Some of the squalls were intense enough to create some thundersnow up in Orleans County. 

 Road salt doesn't work great in low temperatures, so any ice lingering on the roads won't easily go anywhere.  Bridges and overpasses, especially over rivers will be especially dangerous. Steam rising from the water often forms black ice on the bridge.

That's one the reasons we see so many winter crashes on the Interstate 89 bridges over the Winooski River between Winooski and Burlington.

From about Burlington south into Addison County, the frigid winds blowing across the mostly unfrozen Lake Champlain  today will create light lake effect snow.  

Areas exposed to those strong northwest winds will also suffer from blowing snow that can briefly reduce visibility and leave an area of snow on the roads. You're driving along and the roads seem OK, then you hit that snow in skid out. 

Further north, this problem is even worse. There's a blizzard warning up for far northern Maine today. There won't be much new snow up there, either, but strong winds and low temperatures will create a ground blizzard.

A ground blizzard, common in the northern Plains but less so here, is when there's little or no snow falling out of the sky, but blowing snow is so thick that visibility is reduced on the roads to near zero.

TOO COLD TO DO ANYTHING

Otherwise, the bitter cold air is dry, so most places won't see any additional snow. 

If you had big plans today or tomorrow, check to see if they're still on.  They probably aren'.t Besides, today and tonight especially will be a perfect time to stay indoors, eating stew and binge watching Netflix or Hulu or something. 

Another photo attempt to warm you up today. Photo is
at the Burlington, Vermont waterfront during a July, 
2018 heat wave. I remember it was 91 degrees 
when I snapped this photo. I sincerely doubt it's
this nice along the Burlington lake front today.

Many schools in Vermont are closed today. I know, I know. I went to school, too, in weather this bad when I was a kid. But the fact that we've had such warm winters is a bit of a shock. People aren't use to this.

Jay Peak announced Friday that it would shut down its ski lifts today and probably run them on a limited basis on Saturday. "While this may sadden the hardest of our corps, it's in the interest of both our team and guests that we do so," the resort said in a statement issued Thursday.

I'm sure other ski resorts are closing or limiting lifts today, too. 

That gets me to something I brought up before that needs to be repeated: Will you hard core adventurers just STOP.  Don't climb Mount Washington, just for this one 48 hour period.  Don't go for a jog in just shorts and a t-shirt. You know who you are. I've seen you. 

You're not impressing anyone, and if your hiking and skiing the back woods in this ridiculousness, you put rescuers in danger, too. Not just yourself. Or do you care?

Phew! I really had to get that out of my system. 

The annual Penguin Plunge into Lake Champlain in Burlington to benefit Special Olympics is also canceled, and somehow turned into a remote event. The real deal had been scheduled for Saturday, but meteorologists, the City of Burlington and organizers deemed the event too dangerous give the expected wind chill.  

Organizers are telling would-be plungers to instead, after the cold eases, to make snow angels in bathing suits, or have snowball fights in shorts and t-shirts, or anything like that between now and February 20.  

TONIGHT

Snuggle in for a frigid night. The forecast hasn't really changed in days as to how cold it will get overnight and early Saturday morning.

The banana belt towns near Lake Champlain should bottom out in the mid to upper teens below zero, with continued wind chills in the 35 to 45 below range. Most other places in northern and central Vermont should get into the low to mid 20s below zero with wind chills in the 40s below. The coldest hollows should flirt with 30 below - actual temperature.

This terrible weather is still looking like an incredibly quick hitter. Saturday will still be frigid, but not as cold or windy as today.  Most places should actually get to a few degrees above zero by mid to late afternoon.

Overnight Saturday, it will actually warm up, and be pretty decent by Sunday morning, with temperatures at dawn probably in the teens for most of us.  Those readings will go into the upper 20s to mid 30s by late afternoon Sunday. That's actually a wee bit warmer than average. 

And, every day during the upcoming week will be warmer than average for this time of year. 5 

Quick Vermont Thursday Evening Arctic Blast Update

The latest wind chill forecast, issued Thursday afternoon
from the National Weather Service office in South 
Burlington still indicates 40s below wind chills coming up

 Not much change had come through for our brief but intense Arctic blast, scheduled from later tonight through Saturday. 

First of all, today wasn't all that nice to begin with, at least in the Champlain Valley. Sure, it was seasonably warm, near 30 degrees. 

But with winds gusting to around 35 mph, wind chills were in the teens at best, and that cold snow blowing off roofs and slamming into my face as I walked around St. Albans, Vermont today wasn't fun.

But the joy gets more intense tonight, as advertised. The Arctic cold front, with its really heavy but brief snow squalls, should enter northwestern Vermont by around 10 p.m. tonight, reach roughly a Middlebury to Newport line by around 11 p.m., and pass by Rutland and St. Johnsbury by midnight.

It looked like on radar that some preliminary lighter snow showers were already crossing the International border into Vermont as of 5:15 p.m. today. That might develop a few little slick spots on northern Vermont roads before the main show arrives later.

Temperatures are still expected to crash fast behind that cold front.  An example is a forecast I saw for Burlington, which has the temperature at 19 above at midnight and 6 below by 9 a.m. Temperatures would then stay around 6 below all day before crashing in the evening to lows Friday night in the mid to upper teens below zero.

The worst wind chills are forecast to come between about 3 p.m. Friday and 6 a.m. Saturday. In the mountains, the expected wind chill would be as low as 84 below atop Mount Marcy, New York and 73 below atop Mount Mansfield.

In lower elevations, expected wind chills would range from about 39 below in Springfield to minus 50 in Newport. Stay indoors, kiddies! 

If you hate the cold, forecasts are still solidly calling for a big warmup beginning Sunday. Several days next week will get above freezing.  

More details coming tomorrow morning, once we're into the heart of the cold. It will be interesting to see whether this cold wave is more intense, or less intense than forecast. 

The Arctic Cold Gathers, Then Weather Whiplash In Vermont

Latest wind chill forecast map from the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington, valid 7 a.m. Saturday.
Most of us are in the upper 30s to mid 40s below
on the wind chill scale. 

We got our first taste of true winter cold this morning, with much of Vermont going below zero.

Burlington got to minus 2.  This was the fourth latest first zero of any winter I'm aware of.  Meanwhile, Island Pond, Vermont and Saranac Lake, New York dipped to 20 below. Lake Eden, Vermont was close behind at 18 below.  

We'll see a warmup of sorts today and tomorrow ahead of the long-anticipated Arctic blast, but it won't be all that balmy. Today will get into the low to mid 20s.

Thursday could hit the low 30s in warmer valleys. But gusty south winds will make it feel colder. Then we get into the nastiness: 

Thursday Night: During the first half of the night, the cold front arrives, probably accompanied by a band of snow squalls. Those will create quick drops in visibility and danger on the roads amid brief heavy snow and blowing snow. 

Overall accumulations won't amount to much, perhaps an inch or two, but that's not the real story, of course Temperatures will rapidly crash, and probably be below zero by dawn across much of Vermont, central and north. 

Wind chills will have drop into the 30s below overnight and before dawn. We do have that wind chill watch for all of Vermont and surrounding areas from late night Thursday through Saturday. 

Friday: A real ugly day for sure. If you greet the dawn Friday at below zero, there's a good chance actual temperatures won't get above zero all day.  The warmest anyone in Vermont will get will be close to 10 in the "warmest" southern Vermont valleys.

North winds will continue blasting all day at around 20 mph with higher gusts. Wind chills will be in the upper 30s and 40s below all day. This is truly dangerous weather, especially since we're not accustomed to it. 

If you must go out, be sure to keep skin covered. Make sure your car is ready with a good battery and a full tank of gas. And keep some extra blankets and other warm clothes in the car in case you get stuck out there. Also, how's the fuel tank in your house? Full enough? Check it now. 

Lake Champlain will look interesting amid the frigid temperatures and strong winds. It's still largely ice-free, thanks to the warm winter we've had until now. You'll see lots of wind blown steam, and perhaps some whirls or funnel clouds out there.  Lake effect snow will probably fall southeast of the lake, but accumulations will be light. 

Friday night: That, of course, is when we bottom out as Arctic high pressure noses, aided by the Polar Vortex, which by then will have swooped into eastern Quebec and touching the northern tip of Maine. 

Although winds will diminish, they won't entirely die out, which means two things. On the bad side, wind chills will still be in the basement, staying in the 30s and 40s below. On the good side, the winds will keep the air mixed in some locations, so the actual temperature won't go as low as it could if everyone had calm winds. 

That's not saying much. Temperatures through most of Vermont will pretty uniformly be within a few degrees of 20 below.  Probably mid and upper teens below in the Champlain Valley and warmer valleys of southern Vermont, and mid 20s below in the colder spots. Deeper northern valleys could be protected from the wind. I wouldn't be at all surprised to find some 30s below actual temperatures in Vermont by Saturday morning. 

Climatology Comparison:  It certainly is possible for even Burlington reach 20 below. If it does, it will be the first time it's gotten that cold since January 7, 2018

This will also probably be the coldest February temperature since February 24, 2015, when it was 19 below in Burlington. In the off chance it gets to 20 below in Burlington, it will be the first time it's gotten that cold in February since an especially intense cold wave on February 7, 1993 brought Burlington down to 27 below.

As intense as this Arctic blast is, it certainly won't be the coldest February readings on record. In Burlington, that honor goes to a 30 below temperature on February 12, 1979.  Statewide, the coldest on record in February is 46 below in East Barnet in 1943

Saturday: After that horrifically cold start, temperatures will only slowly warm under a fair amount of sunshine. North winds will continue to make for a terrible wind chill. Most places in northern Vermont won't even get above zero. But at least winds will temporarily diminish in the afternoon. 

Saturday night: Here's where weather whiplash starts to get us. I told you this would be a brief Arctic smash. Temperatures wills start to crash at and just after sunset, especially east of the Green Mountains. But before they get too cold, they'll level off as the core of the cold air zips off to the northeast. Plus, south winds will start to blow. 

Here's something to warm your heart. After our Arctic
blast Friday and Saturday, long range forecasts call
for warmer than normal weather in the eastern U.S.,
including in Vermont, next week. 

Temperatures will bottom out during the first half of the night in the teens below zero in much of eastern Vermont and single digits below west.

Temperatures in many places, especially the Champlain Valley, will rise overnight and during the wee hours of the morning. It'll actually get pretty windy in the Champlain Valley overnight, so blowing snow will become a problem. 

Sunday: Weather whiplash continues. We're dealing with a strong warm front and a strong cold front. Neither will have much moisture with them. .But what they lack in moisture they'll make up for with winds. 

The Champlain Valley will "warm up cold" as I like to say. Temperatures will rocket upward, but the stiff winds will make it feel colder. Pretty much everyone in Vermont will see some pretty good south breezes. By late afternoon expect highs to actually be at or a wee bit above normal.  That means highs in the 27 to 35 degree range. 

Sunday night: The one trouble with the approaching cold front will be the risk of more snow squalls Sunday evening, so we'll have to keep an eye on that. The "cold" air coming in behind the cold front won't be cold at all, so we should expect a normal winter on Monday. Highs in the 20s to near 30.

Beyond that, it could be 40 degrees by Tuesday.